### I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 Crystal Ball Repo rt Simulation started on 3/25/99 at 10:19:59 Simulation stopped on 3/25/99 at 10:24:23 

## Forecast.- LCC Savings 1r-40 (Commercial) - CC Summary: Certainty Level is 7.14% Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity Display Range is from ($15) to $5 Entire Range is from ($15) to $15 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Forecast I L S'avirgs 1Fd0 ( Cam'emd)-CC 10,000 1 ids Freger COW .010 - 36OAers . 200

.015

.010 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -'
A05 ---------------
($'15) ($10) ($5)6 03taryis7.14%f $5b +I rfity ------------ ! lliIcIh:IIii 150

100 c9 c 0 .01
0



### Page 17 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99

- - 

### Crystal Ball Report 

### Simulation started on 3/25/99 

### at 10:19:59 Simulation stopped on 3/25/99 

### at 10:24:23 

## Forecast: LCC Savings 1F40 {Commercial> - CC summary: Certainty Level is 7.14% certainty Range is from $0 to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from ($15) to $5 Entire Range is from ($15) to $15 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0
f'orecasI:: UXSaviI1JS 1f;40(Ccnnwcial)·CC 1O,ooo1iiais Fi'eqen:yOmt 35QJ1iers .020 -;--------------;;;0-----------,·200
.015

### ~ :E .010 0:1 

## -= C 

# .. C.

.000 .L.,-_......a..I,IdlJW.lJWIII ($15) 

## ;:r

--------------- 100 

### i!!l MI ::0**~**

Qrtaityis7. 14%Iran$J 10 +Irfriy



### page 17 5/26/99 

### 8:38 AM

cell: K13

### I:\ballast\ICC\ICC runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38

Summary: Certainty Level is 67.29% Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infini Display Range is from ($20) to $25 Entire Range is from ($ 16) to $53 After 10, 000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 86 Oufflers

0 .016 .008 - 240.7

0 $3 $14 Catktyis /ofrrm$0b-HrArety 4 fl



### 131) - Cell: K1 Summary: Certainty Level is 98.37% Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity Display Range is from ($10) to $50 Entire Range is from ($7) to $94 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Page 18 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

## 1 Summary: certainty level is 67.29% certainty Range is from $0 

### to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from <$20> 

### to $25 

### Entire Range is from ($16) 

### to $53 After 10,000 

### TrialS, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 Forecast LCC Savings 1F40 (Qnmercial) - ERS 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart .032 .024

### ~ :2i .016 Il;;I .Q Q l.. .008 Il. .000 ($al)**~)** $14 Cl:!tairtyis 67 29"lofromSl) 10+lrlirily 86 OuiIiers 321 240.7 .." 

# ... C"i) 100.5 .c c C"i) 

## = 00.25**~** 0 $25 

# Forecast: Lce 

# savings 1F40 (Commercial) .. TS ERS Summary: certainty level is 98.37% certainty Range is from $0 

### to 

## + Infinity Display Range is from <$10> 

### to $50 

### Entire Range is from ($7) to $94 After 10,000 

### Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 FOlecast LCCSavings 1F40 (Conmercial) -18 ERS 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart .030 .023

### ~ .c .015 Il;;I .c Q 

## d: .008 ($10) $5 Cl:!tairtyis 98.37%fromSl) 10+lrlirily



### page 

### 18 60 OuiIiers 303 2Zl2 .." 

# ... C"i) 151.5 .c c n 

## = 75.75

### ~ 0 $50 

### 5/26/99 8:38 AM 

### Cell: 1<14

Cell: 1(15

### I:\ballast\ICC\ICC runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM Cell: 13 Summary: Certainty Level is 98.12% Certainty Range is from -75.0 to +Infinity Display Range is from -75.0 to 200.0 Entire Range is from -808460.1 to 29909.0 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 81.0

Forecast Payback 1 ( 'al) - 10,000 Trials Frequency Mad .082 a 

# Z'

as pq 0.. 382 Oud iers - 815 

# .0611 + ---- ---------A -------------------

.041 ---- r ---------------------------------

.020 - - - - - - - - - - - ----------------------- A+^? -.:53.8 .0 00 75.0 &3 625 1312 200D Catirtyis9 .12%fian 75.0to11rfirity - 6112

203.7 0


## Forecaste. `f-2-^ ( 

## commerc i 

## al ) - 

## ERS Cell: 14 Summary: Display Range is from 0.0 to 30.0 Entire Range is from 1.0 to 228.8 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1
10,000 Trials .045 -i- .034 Forecast Payback 1F40 ( al) - EIZ.S Rw-wlcy Chart 124 Outliers

- -------------------------------- 1_. 

# L W.L -------------------------
7.5 452 339 

## 111ilillno^•^s.r^....•....._. 0 15.0 22.5 30.0



### Page 19 

### 1:\ballast\icc\lcc runs 

### 3-99\3-25-99

- - 

## Forecast: payback 1F40 {commercial> .. CC Summary: certainty Level is 

### 98.12% certainty Range is from 

### -75.0 to +Infinity Display Range is from 

### -75.0 to 

### 200.0 Entire Range is from 

### -808460.1 to 

### 29909.0 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### 81.0

10,000 Trials Forecast Pa)back 1F40 (Camlercial) - CC Frequency Chart 382 Outliers .062 .,---.,------.--------------,. 815 .061 

### ----+-------- -__________________________**~12**

### ~ .Q .041 (I;j .Q C 

## d: .DAl I I I I 

### ----T--------

I 

### --- . .!.-------- I I .000 

# L.--I:**~** -6.3 62.5 131.3 catlir1yis 9B.12'lofian-75.01D ilrtirity 

## Forecast: payback 1F40 (Commercial) .. ERS Summary: Display Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### 30.0 Entire Range is from 

### 1.0 to 

### 228.8 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.1 forecast Pa)back 1F40 (Camlercial) - ERS 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart .045 

### -n 

### .... C"I) 407.5 .CI C C"I) := 2J3.7**~**

124 Outliers 452 .004**-~------------------------------- ~** 

# ~ .Q .0Z3 (I;j .Q C L. .011 !l. .000 7.5 15.0



### page 

### 19 

### -n 

# ... C"I) 223 .CI C C"I) := 113**~** 

### 5/26/99 

### 8:38 AM Cell: M13

Cell: M14

### I:\ballast\lcc\icc runs 3- 99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38

Forecast LOC Savi ngs 2 F40 ( 'al) - CC

FremaencvChart 

### Summary: Display Range is from 0.0 to 14.0 Entire Range is from 0.4 to 108.6 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0



## LCC Summary: Certainty Level is 30.01 % Certainty Range is from SO to +Infinity Display Range is from ($18) to $13 Entire Range is from ($17) to $25 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 10,000 Trials .aw 81 Oud iers 302 - 2X5

M8) 

# I ells: 

## an s



# I - CC Cell: K20

P 14 ($10) ($3) $5 $13

ntyi3 30.01 % fmm $O tD+Ufireely _n



### Page 20 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\ICc runs 3-99\3-25-99 summary: Display Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### 14.0 Entire Range is from 

### 0.4 to 

### 108.6 - 

### -

After 

### 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.0 Forecast Payback 1F4O (Comrnercial) -18 ERS 

## ERS

10,000 Trials frequencyChart 85 Outliers**.~~----~~------------------------~-~** .034

### ~ .CI .0Z3 «I .CI e b. .011 C. .000 0.0 3.5 7.0 10.5 14.0 

## Forecast: LCC savings 2F40 (Commercial) .. CC summary: Certainty level is 

### 30.01 % 

### Certainty Range is from $0 to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from ($18) 

### to $13 

### Entire Range is from ($17) 

### to $25 

### After 

### 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is SO Forecast lCCSavings 2F40 (Conmercial)
- CC 339.7

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 81 Outliers**.~~--------------.-~--------------~.** 302 .0Z3 2'&5 "'T1 

## ....**~** n .CI .015 151 .c «I c: .CI n 

## = 75.5

### ~ e b. .008 C. .000 0 ($18) ($10) ($3) $5 $13 Olrlairtyis 3O.01%1itmi!01D -I!riirity



### page 20 5/26/99 8:38 AM 

### cell: 5

Cen: K20

### I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM Cell: K21 Summary: Certainty Level is 80.14% Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity Display Range is from ($15) to $30 Entire Range is from ($14) to $51 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

159 CD C C6 ------ ----------------- 79.5 .. evil 11111 11111111 ^^ n 4 ($15) ($4) $8 $19 $30 031airtyis 80.14%fiun$0to-Hrtirity


### Summary: Certainty Level is 98.90% Certainty Range is from $0 to + infinity Display Range is from ($10) to $70 Entire Range is from ($10) to $119 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the mean is $0

Forecast LCC Savi ngs 2F40 ( al) - ERS 10,000 Trials Requency Cliart .032 H 75 Oull iers - 318 -----------------------1- 238.5 -O .016 -------------

Forecast LCCSavings 2F40 (Canrner+cial)-18 EIZS 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart MB ^ at>

104 Outliers - 276 .021 ------------- ---------------------- -207 .014 ---------- --------------------- 138 .07 Affil=$^5 000 0 MO) $10 $30 $50 $70 CeiW rtyls 9&82%fiCm $Oto -Hrtiirlty -, Cc C CD 

### Cell: K22

Page 21 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-2S-99

- - 

## Forecast: LCC Savings 2F40 (Commercial> - ERS summary: certainty Level is 80.14% 

### certainty Range is from 

### SO to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from ($1S) 

### to $30 

### Entire Range is from ($14) 

### to $S1 

### After 10,000 

### Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is $0 Forecast LeeSavings 2F40 (Comnercial)
- ERS 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 75 OuiIiers .002 318 .024 238.5

### ~ .." 

# ... C'1) .Cl .D16 159 .Q (tl c: .Cl C'1) C := 

# ... .0l3 79.5

### ~ 

### a. .!XX) 0 ($15) O3r1airtyis OO.14"kfil:m$)1o -ilrlirity 

## Forecast: Lec savings 2F40 (commercial> .. TS 

## ERS Summary: Certainty Level is 98.90% 

### Certainty Range is from $0 

### to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from ($10) 

### to $70 

### Entire Range is from ($10) 

### to $119 

### After 10,000 

### Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is $0 Forecast LeeSavings 2F40 (Comnercial) -18 ERS 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 104 OuiIiers**.~~--------~--~-----------------,-** 276 .021 2fJl

### ~ .." 

# ... C'1) .Cl .014 138 .Q (tl .Cl c: C'1) C 

# ... .w 

### a. := 00**~** .!XX) 0 ($10) $10 $30 $60 $70



### Page 21 S/26/99 

### 8:38 

### AM Cell: 1<21

CeDI: 1<22

### I:\hallast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

10 

### Summary: Certainty Level is 99.96% Certainty Range is from 0.0 to +infinity Display Range is from 0.0 to 70.0 Entire Range is from -572.5 to 637.0 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.2

D° 

## ERS Cell: 21 Summary: Display Range is from 0.0 to 25.0 Entire Range is from 0.6 to 109.1 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1

Forecast 10,000 Trtials .043 -1

.000 LA 0.0 M Chart 116 iers

63



### Page 22 1:\ballast\lcc\ICc runs 3-99\3-25-99

- - 

### summary: certainty Level is 99.96% certainty Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### 70.0 Entire Range is from 

### -572.5 to 

### 637.0 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.2

10,000 Trials Forecast Payback 2F40 (Co iIierda!) - CC FrequencyChart 97 OuiIiers .1)51 -r--.-,---.--------------,. 511

I .038**~----______________________________ ~2** 

### ~ , .s:::I .Q26 «::i .s:::I Q 

# ... .013 

## c.. .000 0.0 17S 35.0 52.5 Olttairtyis 99.96"10mO.Oto -llrlirity 

# Forecast: Payback 2F40 (Commercian.. ERS Summary: Display Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### 25.0 Entire Range is from 

### 0.6 to 

### 109.1 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.1
10,000 Trials 70.0 

# .,., 

# ... C'i) 255.5 .s:::I c: C'i) ::I 127.7**~**

116 OuiIiers**.OO-r---~--.-------------~·~** .002

.000 125 1&8



### page 

### 22 

# .,., .... C'i) 2135 .s:::I c: 1"1) ::I 106.7**~** 

### 5/26/99 8:38 

### AM 

### Cell:

Cell: M21

## Forecast: :®

10,000 Trials.043 -r

### Summary: Display Range is from 0.0 to 12.0 Entire Range is from 0.5 to 62.3 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0

Fawast

.011 428 321
214 L. 0 .000 

### I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM



# CoCuJ^1J_; )- 

## TS ERS Cell:

2F40 ( 'aly18 ERS 106

- -------------------------------- I

# I9 I1I11111i Vam =3.1 9elee.oe.a..---° 0 3.0 6.0 9.0 120 

## Forecast
-



## . Cell: K27 Summary: Certainty Level is 39.79% Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity Display Range is from ($25) to $25 Entire Range is from ($21) to $40 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0
iO,6ml;als .0z3 

### ,- Foracast tccSvirW.ao, i-cC R"anWOut 35CWbm

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1. 1747

-T ---------------------. 'M a5 .G 

# 11,1

---------------

( ($,3) $0 (§taity is 33 .79Yo fmm $D w +I rtnty ---------------- I- 5a25 

# 4111hou.1111uh 4 $13 S25 

## Q

Page 23 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 

### 3-99\3-25-99

- - 

# Forecast: Payback 2F40 (Commercian.. TS ERS Summary: Display Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### 12.0 Entire Range is from 

### 0.5 to 

### 62.3 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.0 Forecast: Pa)'back: 2F40 (Corrmercial)- 18 ERS 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 106 Outliers**.OO~----~--~----------------------'-Q** .032 

### -------------------------------**~**

### ~ .c .021**~** .c c 

# ... .011 

### c.. .00) 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 120**~** ('!) 214 .c c: ('!) 

## = 107**~**


# Forecast: 

# lce savings 3F40 Tandem-wired .. 

# ec Summary: Certainty Level is 

### 39.79% certainty Range is from 

### $0 to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from 

### <$25) to 

### $25 Entire Range is from 

### <$21) to 

### $40 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### $0
FOrecast: La:Savirgs 3I'IOlin:IemWred-CC 10,000"iiaIs**~Out** .C113
.017

### ~ :E .012 10 ,Q c 

### ... Cl.. .ro>
.OOJ ($25) Qrtaityis 3l.79Y.fran:lOlo +Irfriy

page 

### 23 35OJ1iers 233
174.7**~ ~**  116.5 

### -g**~** 

### =**~** 58.25 

### 5/26/99 8:38 AM 

### cell: M22

cell: K2i'

### I:\hallast\Icc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 Cell: ®®- 

### Summary: Certainty Level is 57.67% Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity Display Range is from ($25) to $30 Entire Range is from ($21) to $53 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the mean is $0

29

.017

.Ow -----------------------



# ------------------ lllidg

$9 OAttdty is 57.61%frvn $D to +I rfrIy $16 171.7

114.5

57.25



### Cell: K29 Summary: Certainty Level is 99.05% Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity Display Range is from ($25) to $125 Entire Range is from ($14) to $190 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 Formmt sac&WrW 3RO 

### md-7B M 

### 1O,T; m3t 

### M

-------------- -------------- ji

-------------
(M ------------------ I L

--------------- 

## -

a



# ----------------

rr4^v,= saa QnftyisM0 fram$1to +irfety 

### 2M

1747

165

5325



### Page 24 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

## savings .::lI!lII""lb!IblUl' 

### summary: Certainty level is 57.67% 

### Certainty Range is from $0 

### to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from ($25) 

### to $30 

### Entire Range is from <$21) 

### to $53 

### After 10,000 

### Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is $0 foolcast UlC Savirgs:fijl) 1lirdImWred·ERS 10,000"iiaIs**~CIut** .(123
.017

### ~ 

### :s .1)11 tJ:I .:l 0 

# .. CI. .006

.000 ($15) Ortaity is 57.67%from $:lD +Infrdy 81W1iers Z!9
171.7**~** n> 114.5 

### "2l n> 

# =**~** 57.'25


## Forecast: LCC Savings 3F40 Tandem-wired .. TS ERS summary: certainty level is 99.05% 

### certainty Range is from $0 

### to 

### + Infinity Display Range 

### is from <$25) 

### to $125 

### Entire Range is from ($14) 

### to $190 

### After 10,000 

### TrialS, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 FbrecasI: UlCSavirgs:F40 1lIrdemWred·"BERS 10,000"iials**~CIut** .(123
.017

### ~ 

### :s .012 tJ:I .:l 0 

# .. CI. .006

.000 ($15) Ortlityis9l.CB'Iofn:m$:lD +Infrdy



### page 24 52W1iers Zl3
174.7 "T1 

# .. n> 116.5 

### "2l n> 

### =**~** SB.'25
0 

### 5/26/99 8:38 AM 

### cell: K28

cell: K29I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM 

## Forecast.* Payback -j® 1



## _ Cell: 27 

### Summary: Certainty Level is 99.99% Certainty Range is from 0.0 to +Infinity Display Range is from -20.0 to 70.0 Entire Range is from -106.6 to 1154.0 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.2 10AW1i s

. -ac 

### a>Nt 37CLdiam 560

r- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

F 260

F WO

-240 25 25.0 Qct*dy is qq.>^°/o from Q Oto +Ud r3y 

### 1 = 11.4 Mr 47.5 0



### ® -^9r ^U ¶? T) ^1u ® Cella M 28 Summary: Display Range is from 0.0 to 35.0 Entire Range is from 0.8 to 143.0 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1 ro^ P*a*3M -ERS 10AMWS Freq rtya t .032 94CLft- s 

### 3M

------------------------------------1-241.5

------------------------------------I-161
II^
86 -------- -------------------- 

# ^ M5

7 17.5 2&3 G 7



### Page 25 

### 1:\ballas.t\ICC\ICC 

## Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

## Forecast: payback 3F40 Tandem-Wired .. CC Summary: certainty Level is 

### 99.99% certainty Range is from 

### 0.0 to +Infinity Display Range is from 

### -20.0 to 

### 70.0 Entire Range is from 

### -106.6 to 

### 1154.0 After 

### 10,000 TrialS, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.2 Rlrecast**P¥ack3l'4)~.ex:** lO.oooliials**~Ci1lI't** 37OA1iers .()$ .,-------...---.--------------;- 500**.~** 

## ------------- -------------------------------**~**

### ~


## -------------------------------**~ ~**  .014
- - - - - - - - - - - - 

## -----------------------------**~** ·:n0 2.5 25.0 Qrttityis9J.WMranQOto+lrmnly 47.5 

## Forecast: payback 3F40 Tandem-wired .. ERS Summary: Display Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### 35.0 Entire Range is from 0.8 to 

### 143.0 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.1 M) 

### =**~**

10.000liiaIs MOAIiers .Cll2
.024

### ~ :ci .016 toO .CI Q 

# .. c.. .<XlI
.(XX)**,---~-.------------------..~**

QO I I 

## _&_-----------------------------------**~~**

I I

------------------------------ m5

8.8 17.5 26.3



### page 

### 25 5/26/99 8:38 AM cell: 11127

cell: 11128

### l:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99

Summary: Display Range is from 0.0 to 11.0 Entire Range is from 0.4 to 58.3 After 10,000 Trials, the Std . Error of the Mean is 0.0 3F40 10, 000 Trials .042 -r .On

011 

### 0 28 5.5 8.3 11.0

7 

## 40 Summary. Certainty Level is 26.34% Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity Display Range is from ($25) to $20 Entire Range is from ($23) to $35 After 10, 000 Trials, the Std . Error of the Mean is $0 10, Trias M4 115 i 

### 5/26/99 8:38 AM

1 - -------------------------------- 422 - 31x5 '11 - 211 C

C9

Saviqjs 3 Ta Req"r-y Mart - 36

0 

### - 

## CC ce ll: K34

56 iees



### Page 26 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns 

### _3-99\3-25-99 summary: Display Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### 11.0 Entire Range is from 0.4 to 

### 58.3 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.0 Forecast Payback 3RW TandemWl'ed -18 ERS 10,000 Trials**~Chart** 

## ERS

115 OuIiiers**.oo~----.-~~---------------------,-~** .032 .. - - ____ - ___ - _____ - - - - - ___ - ____ - - 31a5

### ~ 

### :c; .021 Q::I .c Q I.. .011 

### c.. .000 28 5.5 8.3 11.0 

## Forecast: LCC Savings 3F40 Non..Tandem .. CC summary: Certainty Level is 

### 26.34% certainty Range is from 

### $0 to 

## + Infinity Display Range is from 

### <$25) to 

### $20 Entire Range is from 

### <$23} to 

### $35 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is 

### $0 Forecast lCCSavings 3F40 Non-Tandem - CC 10,000 Trials**~Chart** .Il34 .025

### ~ 

### :c; .017 Q::I .c Q I.. .008 

### c.. .000 ($25) O!r1airtyis2i.34%fian$llo-tlrnrity



### page 

### 26 ""'1'1 

# ... fi) 211 .C! C ('1) ::::I 105.5**~**

56 OuIiiers

336 252 ""'1'1 

# ... ('1) 168 .C! C ('1) :I 84

### ~ 0 

### 5/26/99 8:38 AM cell: 11129

cell: 1<34

### I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM LCC mJ _, 

## ^d^ ^^u ^e^JY^®J7 

### ® Cell: K35 Summary: Certainty Level is 97.74% Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity Display Range is from ($20) to $60 Entire Range is from ($11) to $95

lomTdds RSqBM Ch3t 6BQjfi@e1s 

### .cm

.017 -----------------

----------------

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - J F&____________________ 1665

M .011

w $40 $60 C13tdty is97. 74%fnxn $0 b +I rfrty - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 111
5i5 t9 C



### ® © TJ ( }l: Cell: K36 summary: Display Range is from $0 to $150 Entire Range is from $5 to $242 After 10, 000 Trials, the Std
. Error of the Mean is $0

Page 27 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\ICC runs 3-99\3-25-99

- - 

# Forecast: Lee 

# savings 3F40 Non..Tandem .. ERS Summary: certainty Level is 97.74% certainty Range is from $0 to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from <$20> to $60 Entire Range is from <$11) to $95

10,000ltials 6BWliers .022**,---------------~~----------------~·m**
.017 1!li5

### ~ :E .011

-------------------- m 

## "" ..Cl Q "- Co .006 55.5

.(XX) ($<I)) Olrtlitylsfff.74%fran$J 10 +Irfrty 

# Forecast: Lee 

# savings 3F40 Non-Tandem .. TS ERS summary: Display Range is from $0 to $150 Entire Range is from $5 to $242 After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is $0 RlnlI:ast 

### ux: Savirgs:f"40 Nn"ln:lrm-11ERS lO,oooltials F'recp!n:?faat 112Wliers .Il!) -r-------------.---.--------------------,- 195
.015

.006 48.75



### page 27 5/26/99 8:38 AM Cell: 1<35

Cen: 1<36

### 1:\bz!17ast\lcc\lcc ru. 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Summary: Certainty Level is 99.98% Certainty Range is from 0
.0 to + Infinity Display Range is from 0.0 to 70.0 Entire Range is from -27 44.5 to 317.3 After 10,000 Trials , the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.3

uw0 Summary: Display Range is from 0.0 to 15.0 Entire Range is from 0.5 to 69.6 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0 10,000 Trams.046f3F40 Non-Tandem -ERB Requency Mart 89 Oufl iers

- 4W .035 a--------------------------------- - 345 

### 2.1 .023 230 . CD .012 CL 

### M tvn=3 l 115 .000 . l'Ilhol®®.i1® ................ ... i 0 ® 0.0 38 7.5 11.3 15.0 

### Cell: 35

Page 28 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99

- - 

### summary: certainty Level is 99.98% 

### Certainty Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### 70.0 Entire Range is from -2744.5 

### to 317.3 

## .. CC

After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.3

10,000 Trials 65 OuiIiers .055**~---.~~------------------------~.~** .042

### ~ .CI .028**~** .CI Q I!.. .014 

### c.. .000 0.0 17.5 35.0 52.5 Certairtyis 99.98"A>1iom0.0 10+lriinity 

## Forecast: payback 3F40 Non-Tandem .. ERS summary: Display Range is from 

### 0.0 to 15.0 

### Entire Range is from 0.5 

### to 69.6 After 

### 10,000 TrialS, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.0

10,000 Trials 415.5

70.0

89 OuIfiers .046**~-----=~------------------------~-~** .035

### ~ .CI 

### .em**~** .CI Q I!.. .012 

### c.. .000 0.0

### ~--------------------------------**~** I

3.8 7.5 11.3



### page 28 15.0 ." 

## r; 230 .CI c: f'I) :I 115**~** 5/26/99 

### 8:38 AM 

### cell:

Cell: M35I:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM



## 4 C: summary: Certainty Level is 3.44% Certainty Range is from 0.0 to + Infinity Display Range is from -0.8 to 0.4 Entire Range is from -5.6 to 0.3 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0

Forecast Pawback 3F40 Nan-Tandem -18 ERS 10,000 Trials FreWenry Mart .054 - e .041

.000 ----------------------

-0.8 

## Forecast: LCC 111 Oufl iers -543

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

-----------------

-------------- Pm =-02 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 l rtyisa44%fimm0.0to+Udicity - 4072 - 271.5 - 135.7 - 0 0.4 C

CD 

### Cell: M36

L3

## 0
-

## 40 ) ® Cell: 

### K41 

### Summary: Certainty Level is 46.66% Certainty Range is from So to + infinity Display Range is from ($30) to $30 Entire Range is from ($25) to $57 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Forecast LCC Savings 4F40 (Corm udal) - CC 10,000 Trials Freq"Icy Chart 101 Tiers -303
.023 - 2272 Ti rD - 151.5

(0) ------------- 75.75 tin =$1 ® 0 ($15) $0 $15 $30 Cafairtyis 46.66%fran$D to 4Hrtirity C C'D Q



### Page 29 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99

- - 

## Forecast: payback 3F40 Non-Tandem .. TS ERS Summary: certainty level is 3.44% certainty Range is from 0.0 to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from -0.8 to 0.4 Entire Range is from -5.6 to 

### 0.3 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.0 Forecast Pa)iback: 3F40 Non-Tandem - 18 ERS 10,000 Trials FrequencyOlart .054 111 Outliers 543**.~1 ----------------------~**  ---------------- 4rr2

# ~ .Q .w**~** .Q Q 

## d: .014
'()'8 -0.5 -02 0.1 0.4 CB1airtyis 3.44%fttmo.Oto ilnliri1y .." 

# ... ("11 271.5 .CI c: ("11 

## = 135.7**~**


## Forecast: LCC savings 4F40 (Commercial) .. CC summary: certainty level is 46.66% . Certainty Range is from 

### $0 to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from 

### ($30> to 

### $30 Entire Range is from ($25) to $57 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### $0 Forecast lCCSavings4F40 (Q:mnercial) - CC 10,000 Trials FrequencyOlart .030 .023

### ~ .Q .015**~** .Q Q


### .... .008 

## c.. .000**~)** ($15) $15



### page 29 101 Outliers 3J3 7Zl2 .." 

### .... ("11 151.5 .CI c: ("11 

# = 75.75

### ~ 0 $:?ll 

### 5/26/99 8:38 AM cell: M36

cen: 1<41

### l:\ballast\lcc\lcc rr -ins 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM



### Summary: Certainty Level is 90.44% Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity Display Range is from ($20) to $60 Entire Range is from ($17) to $100 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Summary: Display Range is from $0 to $200 Entire Range is from $3 to $290 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the mean is $0

Page 30 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

### summary: certainty level is 90.44% 

### certainty Range is from $0 

### to 

## + Infinity Display Range is from <$20> 

### to $60 

### Entire Range is from <$17) 

### to $100 

### After 10,000 

### Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is $0 fa'ecast I..CC Savings 4F4O (Commercial)
- ERS 10,000 Trials FrequencyChart .031 .023

### .~ :E .015**~** .CI 

# = .... .008 fl. .000 ($20) Olrtairtyis 9O.44"lofromSDto ifnlirity 59 Outiiers 305 Z2J3.7 ." 

## .... C"D 152.5 .c c C"D 

# = 76.25

### ~ 0 

## Forecast: LCC savings 4F40 (Commercial) eo 

## T8 ERS Summary: Display Range is from $0 

### to $200 

### Entire Range is from $3 

### to $290 

### After 10,000 

### Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 fa'ecast I..CC Savings4F4O (O:lrmIerdal) -18 ERS 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 42 Outiiers .031 .;--------.------.---------------,. 306 229.5

# ~ ." 

## .... C"D .CI .015 153 .c**~** c .CI C"D 

# = .... .008 fl. 

# = 76.5

### ~ .000 0



### Page 30 5/26/99 

### 8:38 AM cell: K42

cell: K43

### I:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Forecast: '(Commercial) -CC Cell: M41 Summary: Certainty Level is 99.99% Certainty Range is from 0.0 to +infinity Display Range is from -5.0 to 40.0 Entire Range is from -237.2 to 246.4 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1

Rrecast Payback 4F40 ial) - 10,000 Trials ReqjericyCliart

.048 B

B
CL .000 1- 116 ouliiers - 481



### ----------------------------- 11

63 17.5 28.8 CaMrtyis 99.99%from0.0to41rtirity - 360.7

® -0 40.0 

### Forecast: Payback 4F40 (Commercial ) Cell: M42 Summary: Display Range is from 0.0 to 20.0 Entire Range is from 0.8 to 94.7 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0

10M lids .cm -r-

.015}-'-" Forecast: PaPark 4Fal (CamsrbO - 6iS Req.ergrCFmt 115Q. iers

-----------------------------------I-221.2
1 -----------------------------------147.5 e o

NIW 5.0 - ff-----------------------------Ws
o loo 15.0 200 Q



### Page 31 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

## Forecast: payback 4F40 (Commercial> .. CC Summary: Certainty Level is 99.99% certainty Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from 

### -5.0 to 

### 40.0 Entire Range is from -237.2 to 246.4 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.1

10,000 Trials 1160uUiers .048 ..,--------.----.-------------,. 481 

### • .1)36 

### ---------**-~----------------------------**

### ~ I .c .024 

## -------- 0= .c e**~** .012 

## c.. .(XX) -0.0 6.3 17.5 28.8 O:Itairtyis OO.OO%fiano.Oto -Ilrnrity 

## Forecast: payback 4F40 (Commercial) .. ERS Summary: Display Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### 20.0 Entire Range is from 0.8 to 94.7 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.0 1O,oconas '$IJ.7 ." 

### ;:; 240.5 .c c C"I) ::I 1202**~**

115ClJ11iers .CID**,----~~-------------~.~**
.022

### ~ ::E .()15 10 .= C) 

### ... c- .rm
.OCO 0.0 5.0 I 

## &-----------------------------------**~2** I I

### ~

---------------------------------- _5**~**

10.0 15.0



### Page 

### 31 73.75 C'1I :::I**~** 

### 5/26/99 8:38 AM Cen: M41

cell: M42

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc ruuL1s 3 -99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 A M Cell: Summary: Display Range is from 0.0 to 1.2 Entire Range is from 0.0 to 5.7 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0
10,000 Trials



### Page 32 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc 

### JI.mS _3-99\3-25-99 

## payback _..-..."lU/**{[:on'mler~:lan** 

### summary: Display Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### 1.2 Entire Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### 5.7 After 

### 10,000 TrialS, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.0 Forecast Payback 4F4O (Cmmercial) -18 ERS 10,000 Trials Frequencyawt .044



### , 112 Outliers 436 .033**~------------------------------- ~** 

### .~ .Q .022**~** .Q C l.. .011 

## c.. .000 0.0 0.6 0.9



### page 32 12 

# Fr 218 .CI c:: C'D :I 109**~** 

### 5/26/99 8:38 AM cell: M43

### I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM Crystal Ball Report Simulation started on 3/25/99 at 10:19:59 Simulation stopped on 3/25/99 at 10:24:23

(

## Commercial ) ® 

## EIS Cell: K49 Summary: Certainty Level is 74.80% Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity Display Range is from ($30) to $40 Entire Range is from ($20) to $71 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Forecast LCC SSavirgs 2F96 ( ' al) - ®S 10,000 Trials Requency CBmrt .033 -1

64. ------------------

----------------



### --------------

# A I

.000 __eee^IrBli^^ I ^ I ^Illllllllll n = $7 ^IIIIII^I'I^Illit^'i.1ee.®ee ($30) ($13) $5 $Zi $40 nlyis 748D'/

ofiun$O b+Ufirity 84 Oull iers 333 249.7

t Q 0



### Page 33 i:\ballast\lcc\ICC runs 3-99\3-25-99



## - - 

### crystal Ban Report Simulation started on 3/25/99 at 10:19:59 Simulation stopped on 3/25/99 at 10:24:23 

## Forecast: LCC savings 2F96 (Commercial> .. EIS Summary: Certainty level is 74.80% Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity Display Range is from <$3Q) to $40 Entire Range is from <$20) to $71 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0 fOIl ecast lCCSavings 2F96 (Conmercial) - 8S 10,000 Trials**~01art** 84 OuUiers .033 333 .025 249.7

### ~ ." 

# ... C"I) .cI .017 166.5 .c «:I c: .cI C"I) 0 :::I 

# ... .003 8325

### ~ 

## c.. .00) 0 (SID) C81airtyis 74.W'lofrtm$11D·+hiirity



### page 33 5/26/99 8:38 AM



### cen: 1<49

### I:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM Ce1L Summary: Display Range is from 0. 0 to 35.0 Entire Range is from 1.3 to 142.1 After 10,000 Trials, the Std . Error of the Mean is 0.1



## Forecast: LCC 

# savi 

# nos ) 

### - EIS Cell: 

### K5

### 4 Summary: Certainty Level is 44.51% Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity Display Range is from ($25) to $25 Entire Range is from ($22) to $51
10, Trials .032 .024

.000 Savi ngs 2 (I ndustrial) - ®S FremeancvChart

C rtyis44.51%fmm$Dto-Hr0rety $13 105 Oull iers 320

0 4



### Page 34 

### 1:\bailast\lcc\lcc Juns _3-99\3-2S-99 

# Forecast: Summary: Display Range is from 0.0 

### to 35.0 

### Entire Range is from 1.3 

### to 142.1 

# .. EIS

After 10,000 

### Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1 Faecast Payback**2~** (Carmerclal) - 

## as 10,000 Trials**~Chart** 1180u11iers**.~~---.--~-----------------------,.~** .043**-~_________________________________ ~2** 

.000 17.5 

# Forecast: 

# Lee savings 2F96 (Industrial) .. EIS summary: Certainty Level is 44.51% 

### certainty Range 

### is from $0 

### to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from <$2S) to $25 Entire Range is from <$22) 

### to S51 Faecast LCC Savings**2~** Onduslrial) - 

## as 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 105 OuIiiers**.~~--------------.~---------------,.** 32) .024 240 ." 

# ... C'D 100 .Cl 

# = C'D 

## = 00

### ~ .000 -'----,-__ ...ww 0 O31airtyis 44.51%m$)1D+lrmrity



### page 34 5/26/99 

### 8:38 AM cell: M49

cell: K54

### I:\hallast\ICC\ICC runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM 

## Forecast.- PaYbaCk 2F96 (i ndustrial 

## ) ® 

## EIS Cell: 54 Summary: Display Range is from 0.0 to 35.0 Entire Range is from 1.1 to 465.3 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.1 10,000 Trials .043 -+ Rrecast Payback 2F96 (l al) - ®S

--------------------------------- :1 A

IL .011 .000 1 11 0.0 1111111114 Ntw=a 8.8 17.5 2&3 4 35.0


### Forecast: LCC Savings 2F96HO ( Commerci al ) ® Cell: K60 Summary: Certainty Level is 88.99% Certainty Range is from $0 to + Infinity Display Range is from ($15) to $40 Entire Range is from ($14) to $80 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Fcx LCC Savings 2 ( 'al) - CC 10,000 Trials Chart MO .023

fYYI .=^.. III'I11I1'II ' I^^III1^11l1.1s..e n 37 iers - 432 - 324

0

78 Tiers - 301 _ 225.7 ® ca 15 .015 - --------------------- 1505 C -------------- -- 752 ($15) M) $13 $26 $40 C ntyis88.99% u n $ tp+irfinily



### Page 35 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 

### 3-99\3-25-99



### - - 

## Forecast: payback 2F96 (Industrial> .. EIS Summary: Display Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### 35.0 Entire Range is from 

### 1.1 to 

### 465.3 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.1

10,000 Trials Forecast Payback 2f96 OnWsirial) - ElS FrequencyChart 37 Ouifiers .043**~----.-~-----------------------,-~** .002**~________________________________ ~4** 

### ~ .c .022 (1:1 .c Q I.. .011 C. 

### .oco 0.0 a8 17.5 26.3 .." 

### c:; 216 .c c I"D 

# = 100**~**



## Forecast: LCC Savings 2F96HO (Commercial> - CC Summary: certainty Level is 

### 88.99% Certainty Range is from 

### $0 to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from 

### <$15) to 

### $40 Entire Range is from 

### <$14) to 

### $80 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### $0 forecast lCC Savings 2F96HO (Corrmercial) - CC 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart .lID .Im

### ~ .c .015 (1:1 .c Q I.. .ro! C. 

### .oco ($15) O31airtyis 88.99"Iofn:mro lo-+lrlirity



### page 

### 35 780uifiers 3)1 Z!S.7 .." 

## .... C'tI 100.5 .c c C'tI 

# = 7525**~** 0 

### 5/26/99 8:38 AM Cell: M54

Cell: 1<60l:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM



## LCC Summary: Certainty Level is 97.66% Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity Display Range is from ($20) to $80 Entire Range is from ($13) to $146 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Summary: Certainty Level is 99.80% Certainty Range is from 0.0 to +Infinity Display Range is from 0.0 to 30.0 Entire Range is from -345.3 to 865.5 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the mean is 0.2
10,000 Trials .100 -r-
------------------------------------- M5

r------------------------------------- -

---------------------------------------24,9.5

2 ( 'al)-CC

Chart 90 Ouiiers

0 0.0 7.5 15.0 225 30.0 Oertartyis99.80%fr na0m+Irfirity 0

q 

### Cell:

Page 36 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcC Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

## LCC Savings 2F!!16HID summary: certainty level is 97.66% certainty Range is from 

### $0 to +Infinity Display Range is from 

### ($20) to 

### $80 Entire Range is from 

### ($13) to 

### $146 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### $0 Forecast LeeSavings 2F96HO (Corrmercial) - ERS 10,000 Trials FrequencyChart 83 OuiIiers**m1~----------~--~---------------,·** .023

# ~ .Q .016**~** .Q e I. .008 

### a. .000 ($2) Ca1airtyis97.66%fian$J1o-tlrlirity 

## Forecast: Payback 2F96HO (Commercial) EO 

## CC Summary: certainty level is 99.80% certainty Range is from 0.0 to + Infinity Display Range is from 0.0 to 30.0 Entire Range is from -345.3 to 865.5 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.2 fuecast Pa)mck 2F96HO (Corrmercial) - CC 311 :m.2 

### -n 

# ... C'II 155.5 .c c C'II ::I 71.75

### ~ 0

10,000 Trials FrequencyChart 90 OuiIiers

### ~ :E**~** .Q e I. 

### a. .100 -r---;---.-----------------------,. 998 ,fIlS .050 .025 .000 0.0**--~--___________________________________** 74&5 I I I I 

## r------------------------------------- I

7$ 15.0 225 Ca1airtyis 99.8O"kfiano.Olo-tlrlirity



### page 36

## ~ 499 .c C C'II ::I 249$**~** 

### 5/26/99 8:38 AM 

### cell:

cell: M60

## Forecast: P I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 

## (

# Commercial ) - Summary: Display Range is from 0.0 to 17.5 Entire Range is from 0.4 to 102.0 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0

Forecast Paybac k 2 ( reial) - ERS 10,000 Trials .057

-----------------------

------------------------------------ - 4a,5 m c9 -----------------------------------285 - c ca
O k Q

.019 Nttn=a4. ® 0 4.4 8.8 13.1 17.5 

### 5/26/99 8:38 AM Cell: 61



## Forecast-. LCC Savings 2F96HO ( industrial ) ® Cell: K66 Summary: Certainty Level is 50.77% Certainty Range is from $0 to +Infinity Display Range is from ($25) to $30 Entire Range is from ($21) to $58 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

Forecast LCC Saving s 2 F9M (Industrial) - CC 10,000 Trials Regmicy Cliart .037

B O C- .009 0.0 87 Oud iers 570

30 outliers - 371 -278.2 4--------------------I- 185.5

------------ IIHHIHHHIHNFNNN^NNINNN^i. ---------------- 

# ,.o.Ililll0 ($25) p11) $3 $16 $30 C.eflairtyiS50.771/ofr m$Ob4lr&ity - 9275 0 1

C



### Page 37 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns 

### _3-99\3-25-99 

## Forecast: payback 2F96HO (Commercial) .. ERS Summary: Display Range is from 

### 0.0 to 

### 17.5 Entire Range is from 

### 0.4 to 

### 102.0 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### 0.0 Forecast Payback 2A*iHO (Carmercial) - ERS 10,000 Trials. FrequencyChart 87 Outliers**.~~--~~-------------------------,-~** .043 -+__________________________________**~E**

### ~ .c .029 0;, .CI Q to. .014 

## c.. .(XX) 0.0 4.4 

### as 13.1 17E ." 

# ... C'1) 285 .c c: C'1) :::I 142.5**~**



## Forecast: LCC savings 2F96HO (Industrial) .. CC Summary: certainty Level is 

### 50.77% Certainty Range is from 

### $0 to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from 

### ($25) to 

### $30 Entire Range is from 

### ($21) to 

### $S8 After 

### 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 

### $0 Faecast: 

## u::c Savings 2A*iHO (lndusbial) - CC 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 30 Outliers**.~~------------~~--------------~-** 371 .028 278.2 ." 

# ... C'1) 1855 .c c: C'1) :::I 92.75**~** .(XX) -'----..,-_ ....... 0 ($11) $3 $16**~** Certair1yis 5:l.77"klitmroto -+lrlirity



### page 

### 37 5/26/99 

### 8:38 AM Cen: 11161

Cell: K66

### I:\ha11k.9t\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM ell: K67 

### Summary: Certainty Level is 94.20% Ce rta inty Range is from $0 to + Infinity Display Range is from ($20) to $60 Entire Range is from ($12) to $92 After 10, 000 Trials , the Std. Error of the Mean is $0

- Summary: Certainty Level is 86.69% Certainty Range is from 0.0 to +Infinity Display Range is from -50. 0 to 50.0 Entire Range is from -33198
. 3 to 14291.3 After 10, 000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 4.5 2 (I'al) - CC 10,000 Trials Requencyaurt

Z
CL
-.0 474 Q4liers -13w ---------------------1- 975 650 C C1i 325 

# b1
i::::::I:::::

# :j

Page 38 4 50.0 -0 

### Cell: 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\ICC Juns _3-99\3-25-99 

# Forecast: Savings summary: certainty level is 94.20% certainty Range is from $0 to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from ($20> to $60 Entire Range is from ($12) to $92 After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is $0 Forecast Lee Savings 2F96HO@ndus1rial)
- ERS 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 750u1fier.s .035 .026

### ~ .CI .017 «:I .CI e e.. .009 l:l. .000 ($20) CeI1airtyis 94.2JO'{'fn:m$l1o -tlrnrity 

# Forecast: Payback 2F96HO (Industrial) EO 

# CC summary: certainty level is 86.69% certainty Range is from 0.0 to 

### + Infinity Display Range is from -50.0 to 50.0 Entire Range is from -33198.3 to 14291.3 After 10,000 Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is 4.5 347 2602 ." 

# ... C'I) 173.5 .c c C'I) := 86.75

### ~ 0

10,000 Trials 474 OuIfier.s .130 1300**.~** ---------------------- -------------------- g.ffi

### .~ ." 

# ... C'I) .CI .065 650 .c «:I c .CI C'I) e e.. .033 l:l. := 32)

### ~ .000 0 -60.0 -25.0 0.0 25.0 50.0 CeI1airtyis 86.ES%fn:mo.Olo-tlrnrity



### page 38 5/26/99 8:38 AM 

## cen: K67

Cell: M66

### I:\ballast\ICC\ICC runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM 

## Forecast: ,_ ( industrial ) Summary: Display Range is from 0.0 to 17.5 Entire Range is from 0.5 to 273.5 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.0
2FX)HO ( al)- ERS 10,000 Trials Frequency Chad 37 jars .053

.ODD n---------------------------------- 

# I11 

# 1Nr--

---- fin-3.8 4.4 H 13.1 17.5 527 3952

0 

### Ceu: 67

Page 39 

### 1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99

- - 

## Forecast: payback 2F96HO (Industrial> .. ERS summary: Display Range is from 0.0 

### to 17.5 

### Entire Range is from 0.5 

### to 273.5 

### After 10,000 

### Trials, the std. Error of the Mean is 0.0 Forecast: Payback 2F96HO Ondustrial) - ERS 10,000 Trials FrecpJencyOiart 37 Outliers

### ~ .Q .;e ..CI C II.. 

### a.**.~~--~--~-----------------------,-~** .00 .026 .013 .000 0.0 __ ._________________________________**~2** I I I

4.4 &S 13.1



### page 39 17.5

## ~ 263.5 .CI C C'TJ ::I 131.7**~** 

### 5/26/99 8:38 

### AM cell: M671,101i LLcn' c,u. Price Dimw its Rafe Is W y, All Dollar Values arr. in J9.97 S Normalized Annual First Yr Ballast PV of Savings Fixture Energy Use Energy Equip . & Lamp & LC(: as % Payback Ballast Type Watts (kWh/yr) Cost Labor Cost Labor Cost LCC Savings of LCC ( years)1997 Estimated ahipmtnrts thr all BEM ballasts apera; ing 4 it lamps (which include industrial appisc ttons) is 25.4 millioni Lamp Fixture (7%-) (Commercial Sector) 3400 annual hours, 14.7yrs life

e 1F40 T12/ES 42.3 Cathode Cutout 1F40 T12/ES 38.9 Electronic, Rapid Start 1F40 TI2/ES 32.4 Electronic, Rapid Start 1F32 T8/RE70 27.2 2 Lamp Fixture (40 %°*) (Commercial Sector) 3400 annual hours; 14.7yrs life Baseline 2F40 T12/ES 72.4 Cathode Cutout 2040 T121ES 65.9 Electronic, Rapid Start 2040 TRIES 62.0 Electronic, Rapid Start 2F32 T8/RE70 50.3 3 Lamp Fixture
- tandem wired (4%°°) (Commercial sector) 3400 annual hours, 14.7yrs life Baseline ( 1.5) 2040 T12/ES 105.1 Cathode Cutout ( 1.5) 2F40 TI2/ES 94.9 Electronic, Rapid Start 3F40 T12/ES 93.2 Electronic, Rapid Start 3032 TSIRE70 69.9 3 Lamp Fixture - not tandem wired (18%°x) (Commercial Sector) 3400 annual hour

, 14.7yrs hfe Baseline 1F40 & 2F40 T12/ES 110.8 Cathode Cutout 1F40 & 2F40 T12/ES 100.8 Electronic, Rapid Start 3F40 T12/ES 93.2 Electronic, Rapid Start 3032 T8/RE70 69.9 4 Lamp Fixture (31%°°) (Commercial Sector) 3400 annual hours, 14.7yrs hfe Baseline (2) 2F40 T12/ES 140.0 Cathode Cutout (2) 2F40 T12/ES 126.0 Electronic, Rapid Start (2) 2040 T12/ES 121.0 Electronic, Rapid Start 4032 TS/RE70 90.2 1997 Estimated Shim

. nerits for 2F961'l21ES ballasts is 5,0 miliion° 2096 T12/ES (Commercial) 3300 annual hours

, 15.2yrslife Baseline 126.1 Electronic, Instant Start 111.3 144 $9.95 $34.89 $13.84 $130 132 $9.15 $41.73 $19.45 $135 110 $7.62 $47.75 $13.84 $123 92 $6.39 $42.55 $14.88 $109 5% 5.5 16% 25
246 $17.03 $36.29 $15.87 $190 224 $15.50 $45.33 $22.31 $194 53 -2% 211 $14.58 $47.69 $15.87 $182 39 4% 171 $11.82 $46.60 $17.95 $161 930 16%
357 $24.72 $47.82 $17.89 $266 323 $22.32 $61.38 $25.14 $268 41 0% 317 $21.92 $64.92 $17.89 $261 S6 2% 238 $16.44 $63.28 $21.01 $218 945) 18%
377 $26.06 $54.64 $17.89 $294 343 $23.70 $70.52 $25.14 $288 317 $21.92 $65.11 $17.89 $261 238 $16.44 $53.52 $21.01 $208 1% ..___$n...." 8% 27% -0.1
476 $32
.92 $56.04 $19
.90 $343 428 $29.63 $74
. 12 $27.98 $343 '__..$1 0% 6.? 411 $28.45 $73.07 $ 19.90 $324 $19 6% 3.8 307 $21
.20 $58.47 $24 .07 $255 $89 26% 0,2

416 $28.78 $63 . 86 $31.13 $332 367 $25
.40 $8123 $31.13 $322 -"$11) 3% 3:Y 2096 T12/ES (Industrial) 3700 annual hours, 13.5yrslfe Baseline 126 .1 467 $20.47 $63.86 $33.09 $252 Electronic, Instant Start 111 .3 412 $18.07 $81.23 $33.09 $251 0% -._7.1997 Estimated Sltipuntnts for 2F96T12H0:TS ballasts is 03 million2F96 T12110/ES (Commercial) 3700 annual hours, 13.S yrslife Baseline 200.0 740 $51.18 $85.42 $57.81 $541 Cathode Cutout 185.3 686 547.42 $88.99 $71.80 $530 " "$12 2% 1,,6 Electronic, Rapid Start 176.5 653 $45.17 $97.47 $57.81 $507 $35 6% 10 2F96 TI2HO/

ES (Industrial) 4600 annual hours, 10.9 yrs life Baseline 200 .0 920 $40.37 $85.42 $63.92 $421 Cathode Cutout 185 .3 852 $37.41 $88.99 $79.43 $420 S I 0% 3.1 Electronic, Rapid Start 1765 812 $35.63 $97.47 $63.92 $401 $20 5% 25

° Based on first 6 months' data on EEM ballast shipments fr om REMA 0° Percent of total 4 ft fixture shipments. Present values are discounted at 8% to the year of purchase ( 2003 ) Electricity Price in the First Year (cent(kWh) Com Ind 2003 6.92 4.39 Normalized Annual FrutYr IlaIIast PYof Savings

FIXtUre Energy Use Energy Equip. & Lamp & LCC as% IlaIIast Watts (kWhlyr) Cost Labor Cost Labor Cost LeC Savings 1997 Esurnclred Shipmellts t(lr an EEM**ban~i..,** ('Ipernring 4 tt lamps (\\'h;ch Include mdustrial**apph~th)ns)** IS :!5.4 million* 1 Lamp Fixture (7%**) (Commercial Sector) 3400 annualhours, 14.7yrslife

Baseline IF4DTI2IES 42.3 144 $9.95 $34.89 $13.84 $130 Cathode Cutout IF40T12IES 38.9 132 $9.15 $41.73 $19.45 $135 -5% Electronic, Rapid Start IF40T12IES 32.4 110 $7.62 $47.75 $13.84 $123 5% Electronic, Rapid Start IF32 T8JRE70 27.2 92 $6.39 $42.55 $14.88 $109 16% 2 LampFIXtUre (40%**) (Commercial Sector) 3400annualhours, 14. 7yrs life

Baseline 2F40T12IES 72.4 246 $17.03 $36.29 $15.87 $190 Cathode Cutont 2F40T12IES 65.9 224 $15.50 $45.33 $22.31 $194 -2% Electronic, Rapid Start 2F40T12IES 62.0 211 $1458 $47.69 $15.87 $182 4% Electronic, Rapid Start 2F32 T8/RE70 50.3 I7J $11.82 $46.60 $17.95 $161 3 Lamp FIXtUre
- tandem wired (4%"*) (Commercial Sector) 3400annualhours, 14. 7yrs life

Baseline (1.5) 2F40 TI2lES 105.1 357 $24.72 $47.82 $17.89 $266 Cathode Cutont (1.5) 2F40 T12IES 94.9 323 $22.32 $61.38 $25.14 $268 0% Electronic, Rapid Start 3F40T121ES 93.2 317 $21.92 $64.92 $17.89 $261 2% Electronic, Rapid Start 3F32 T8/RE70 69.9 238 $16.44 $63.28 $21.01 $218 18% 3 Lamp FJXtore
- nOI toodem wired (18%-) (Commercial Sector) 3400annualhours, 14.7yrslife

Baseline IF40 & 2F40 T121ES 110.8 377 $26.06 $54.64 $17.89 $284 Cathode Cntont IF40 & 2F40 T12IES 100.8 343 $23.70 $70.52 $25.14 $288 ·1% Electronic, Rapid Start 3F40T12IES 93.2 317 $21.92 $65.11 $17.89 $261 8% Electronic, Rapid Start 3F32 T8/RE70 69.9 238 $16.44 $53.52 $21.01 $208 27% 4 Lamp Fixlore (31 %-) (Commercial Sector) 34ooannualhours, 14.7yrslife

Baseline (2) 2F40 T12IES 140.0 476 $32.92 $56.04 $19.90 $343 Cathode Cutout (2) 2F40 T12IES 126.0 428 $29.63 $74.12 $27.98 $343 0% Electronic, Rapid Start (2) 2F40 T121ES 121.0 411 $28.45 $73.07 $19.90 $324 6% Electronic, Rapid Start 4F32 T8/RE70 90.2 307 $21.20 $58.47 $24.07 $255 26%

. Estim.aled Shipmenrs T'\)T 2F96TI2/ES ballaSTS is {i.O million"

T12IES (Commercial) 3300annualhours, 15.2yrslife

Baseline 126.1 416 $28.78 $63.86 $31.13 $332 Electronic, Instoot Start 111.3 367 $25.40 $81.23 $31.13 $322 3% 2F96 T121ES (Industrial) 3700annualhours, 13.5yrslift

Baseline 126.1 467 $20.47 $63.86 $33.09 $252 Electronic, Instant Start 111.3 412 $18.07 $81.23 $33.09 $251 0% 1997 Estimdled SlriPlIl<'!lt< tor 2F96Tl2HOiES ballru.1$ is 03 million" 2F96 TI2HO/ES (Commercial) 3700 annualhours, U.syrs life

Baseline 200.0 740 $51.18 $85.42 $57.81 $$41 Cathode Cutout 185.3 686 $47.42 $88.99 $71.80 $530 2% Electronic, Rapid Start 176.5 653 $45.17 $97.47 $57.81 $S07 6%**~F96** Tl2HO/ES (IndustriaI) 4600 annual hours, 10.9yrslife

Baseline 200.0 920 $40.37 $85.42 $63.92 $421 Cathode Cutout 185.3 852 $37.41 $88.99 $79.43 $420 Electronic, Rapid Start 1765 812 $35.63 $97.47 $63.92 $401

••Percent oftota! 4 ft fixture shipments. Present values are diseouoted at 8% to the year ofpurchase ( 2003) Electricity Price in the Fru! Year (centlkWh) Com Ind 2003 6.92 4.39