Small Grains Summary

Grain Stocks

Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

September 29, 2023
Special Note

September 29, 2023

The marketing year for corn and soybeans is finished and a thorough review of the 

balance sheet was completed. This process, which is normal for this time of the 

year, led to minor revisions in acreage, yield, and production for the 2022 crop.

Nationally, corn production for 2022 is revised down 15.0 million bushels and 

soybean production is revised down 5.93 million bushels from the previous 

estimate.
Data Sources

September 29, 2023

Operator Reported September Ag Survey Sample Size = 55,887 August 30 - September 14

Surveys Off-Farm Grain Stocks ~8,100 Facilities August 28 - September 18

Field Objective Yield

Survey Winter Wheat

FSA

Certified Acres

FSA and RMA

Failed Acres

Acres reported as "failed" to either the Farm Service Agency (FSA) or the Risk 

Management Agency (RMA) are considered minimum levels of abandonment.

Sample Size = 1,155 Prior to Harvest

Farm Service Agency policy requires that producers participating in several programs 

submit an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms.
September 2023 Ag Survey

Sample Sizes

September 29, 2023
2023 Winter Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 29, 2023

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Kansas 8,100 ↑ 11.0 5,750 ↓ 12.9 35.0 ↓ 5.4 201,250 ↓ 17.6

Washington 1,800 ↓ 2.7 1,750 ↓ 2.8 54.0 ↓ 20.6 94,500 ↓ 22.8

Montana 1,850 ↓ 9.8 1,680 ↓ 6.7 51.0 ↑ 54.5 85,680 ↑ 44.2

Texas 6,400 ↑ 20.8 2,100 ↑ 61.5 37.0 ↑ 23.3 77,700 ↑ 99.2

Colorado 2,300 ↑ 17.9 1,820 ↑ 27.3 41.0 ↑ 64.0 74,620 ↑ 108.7

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 5.2

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

36,699 24,683 50.6 1,247,748

↓ 0.3 ↓ 3.2 ↑ 5.2 ↑ 1.7

↑ 7.7 ↑ 13.1

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 10.3
Winter Wheat Acres

United States

September 29, 2023

Million Acres

42.4

39.7

36.1

32.7 32.5

31.5

30.5

33.7 33.3

36.7

32.3 32.3

30.2

25.3 24.7 24.6

23.0

25.5

23.5

24.7

20.0

24.0

28.0

32.0

36.0

40.0

44.0

48.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Planted Harvested
40.2

37.7

37.1

44.6

46.9

47.8

44.6

43.4

38.2

46.7

43.5

44.3

41.6 41.7

47.1

44.0

46.5 46.1

47.1 47.3

42.6 42.5

55.3

50.2

47.9

53.6

50.9

50.2

47.0

50.6

32.0

37.0

42.0

47.0

52.0

57.0

62.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Winter Wheat Yield

United States

September 29, 2023

Bushels per Acre
2023 Winter Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Estimate

September 29, 2023

States with no change shown indicate no previous published estimate.
2023 Winter Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

September 29, 2023
35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46 June July

August Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Heads per Square Foot Yield

2023 Winter Wheat Objective Yield

Heads per Square Foot and Yield for 10 State Region

September 29, 2023

Heads per Square Foot Bushels per Acre
1.38 1.37

1.67

1.27

1.18

1.32

1.17

1.28

1.10

1.25

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Winter Wheat Production

United States

September 29, 2023

Billion Bushels
2023 U.S. Winter Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 29, 2023

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
2023 Other Spring Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 29, 2023

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 5,550 ↑ 4.7 5,520 ↑ 4.9 48.5 ↓ 3.0 267,720 ↑ 1.8

Montana 2,700 N C 2,670 ↑ 9.4 30.0 ↑ 20.0 80,100 ↑ 31.3

Minnesota 1,300 ↑ 4.0 1,260 ↑ 4.1 62.0 ↑ 1.6 78,120 ↑ 5.8

Idaho 410 ↑ 7.9 395 ↑ 9.7 82.0 ↑ 1.2 32,390 ↑ 11.1

South Dakota 740 ↓ 1.3 650 ↓ 8.5 43.0 ↓ 10.4 27,950 ↓ 18.0

Top 5 States - By Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

11,200 10,985 46.0 504,900

↑ 12.3

↑ 3.2 ↑

↑

Planted Harvested Yield Production

5.1 ↓ 0.4 ↑ 4.6

2.1 ↑ 10.0

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

↓ 1.0
13.0

13.4

11.6

11.0

13.2

12.7

12.3

11.4

10.9

11.2

12.7

13.1

11.3

10.1

12.9

11.6

12.1

10.2

10.5

11.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Planted Harvested

Other Spring Wheat Acres

United States

September 29, 2023

Million Acres
31.8 32.2

35.1

29.9

34.9

34.1

38.4

35.2

29.1

39.5

43.2

37.1

33.2

37.1

40.5

45.2

46.1

37.7

44.9

47.1 46.7

46.2

47.3

41.0

48.3 48.3 48.6

32.6

46.2 46.0

26.0

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Other Spring Wheat Yield

United States

September 29, 2023

Bushels per Acre
2023 Other Spring Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Estimate

September 29, 2023
2023 Other Spring Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

September 29, 2023
0.595 0.603

0.532

0.416

0.623

0.561

0.588

0.331

0.483 0.505

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Other Spring Wheat Production

United States

September 29, 2023

Billion Bushels
0.420

0.430

0.440

0.450

0.460

0.470

0.480

0.490

0.500

0.510

0.520

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate

2023 U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 29, 2023
2023 Durum Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 29, 2023

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 905 ↑ 14.6 865 ↑ 10.9 37.0 ↓ 7.5 32,005 ↑ 2.6

Montana 705 ↓ 0.7 675 N C 31.0 ↑ 10.7 20,925 ↑ 10.7

Arizona 3 8 ↓ 55.3 3 7 ↓ 56.0 103.0 ↓ 9.6 3,811 ↓ 60.2

California 1 8 ↓ 55.0 1 7 ↓ 51.4 114.0 ↑ 3.6 1,938 ↓ 49.7

Idaho 1 0 ↑ 42.9 1 0 ↑ 42.9 65.0 N C 650 ↑ 42.9

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 1.5

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

1,676 1,604 37.0 59,329

↓ 0.4 ↓ 0.8 ↑ 4.2 ↑ 3.4

↓ 8.6 ↓ 7.3

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 2.7
Durum Wheat Acres

United States

September 29, 2023

Million Acres

1.41

1.95

2.41

2.31

2.07

1.34

1.69 1.64 1.63 1.68

1.35

1.91

2.36

2.11

1.97

1.18

1.67

1.53 1.58 1.60

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Planted Harvested
35.6

30.5

32.6

27.6

37.0

27.8

30.7

30.0

29.5

33.7

38.0

37.2

29.5

34.1

31.3

44.0

41.2

36.8

38.4

43.3

40.2

44.0 44.0

26.0

39.5

45.8

41.5

24.7

40.5

37.0

23.0

28.0

33.0

38.0

43.0

48.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Durum Wheat Yield

United States

September 29, 2023

Bushels per Acre
2023 Durum Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Estimate

September 29, 2023
2023 Durum Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

September 29, 2023
Durum Wheat Production

United States

September 29, 2023

Billion Bushels

0.054

0.084

0.104

0.055

0.078

0.054

0.069

0.038

0.064

0.059

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
0.050

0.055

0.060

0.065

0.070

0.075

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate

2023 U.S. Durum Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 29, 2023
2023 Small Grains

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 29, 2023

Unit Unit

Barley Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 2.8 ↑ 6.6 ↓ 3.6 ↑ 2.8

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 4.8 ↑ 4.5 ↑ 1.1 ↑ 5.7

Oats Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.1 ↑ 3.4 ↑ 11.5 ↑ 15.3

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 1.0 ↓ 6.6 ↑ 5.9 ↓ 1.1

Rye Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 2.2 ↓ 20.5 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 5.4 ↓ 5.6 ↓ 10.8 ↓ 15.7

Production

(1,000 Units)

185,036

57,045

10,375

3,101 2,555 72.4

Yield

(Units per Acre)

2,555 831

2,293 322

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

68.6

32.2
7.2

28.4

10.2

14.6

5.1

11.1

7.0

3.7

11.7

25.1

19.0

22.0

7.5

36.3

11.3

16.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Barley Durum Wheat Oats Other Spring Wheat

2020 2021 2022 2023

Small Grains

U.S. Percent of Acres Remaining to be Harvested

September 29, 2023

Percent
September 29, 2023

September 2023 All Wheat

Stocks

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

North Dakota 257,051 ↓ 6.7 175,000 ↓ 16.7 82,051 ↑ 25.1

Kansas 251,216 ↓ 17.9 24,000 ↓ 21.3 227,216 ↓ 17.5

Montana 161,892 ↑ 27.1 123,500 ↑ 31.4 38,392 ↑ 15.1

Washington 136,669 ↓ 12.6 13,500 ↓ 34.1 123,169 ↓ 9.4

Oklahoma 104,263 ↓ 23.9 7,500 ↑ 7.1 96,763 ↓ 25.6

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

September 1 September 1 September 1

1,779,541 598,140 1,181,401

↑ 0.1 ↑ 1.2 ↓ 0.4

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

14%

14%

9%

8%

6%

49%

September 1, 2023 All Wheat

Total Stocks By State

North Dakota Kansas Montana

Washington Oklahoma Other

34%

66%

September 1, 2023 All Wheat

Stocks By Position

On-Farm Off-Farm
September 29, 2023

September 2023 All Wheat Stocks

United States

2.85

2.62

2.81

3.28

2.92 2.98 3.01

2.86

2.49

2.35 2.39

1.87 1.91

2.10

2.55

2.27

2.39 2.35

2.16

1.77 1.78 1.78

1.47 1.53

1.75

2.08

1.87

2.01

1.84

1.70

1.38 1.31

1.06 1.14

1.37

1.66

1.50 1.59

1.42

1.31

1.03 0.946

0.590

0.752

0.976

1.18 1.10 1.08 1.03

0.845

0.698

0.582

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24

Billion Bushels

Supply Sep 1 Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1
2023 U.S. All Wheat Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 29, 2023

1.70

1.72

1.74

1.76

1.78

1.80

1.82

1.84

1.86

September

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
September 29, 2023

September 2023 Corn

Stocks

20%

11%

10%

6% 10%

43%

September 1, 2023 Corn

Total Stocks By State

Iowa Illinois Minnesota

Nebraska South Dakota Other

44%

56%

September 1, 2023 Corn

Stocks By Position

On-Farm Off-Farm

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Iowa 276,962 ↑ 8.5 110,000 ↑ 15.8 166,962 ↑ 4.2

Illinois 146,778 ↑ 0.9 56,000 ↑ 16.7 90,778 ↓ 6.8

Minnesota 134,814 ↓ 5.4 61,000 ↓ 12.9 73,814 ↑ 1.7

Nebraska 130,172 ↓ 14.1 68,000 ↑ 33.3 62,172 ↓ 38.2

South Dakota 81,385 ↑ 14.5 39,000 ↑ 21.9 42,385 ↑ 8.4

1.1

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

September 1 September 1 September 1

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

1,361,303

↓

605,400 755,903

↑ 18.8 ↓

September 1 September 1 September 1

12.9

Top 5 States - By Total Stocks
September 29, 2023

September 2023 Corn Stocks

United States

11.7

14.7

15.4 15.3

16.9 16.9 16.5 15.8 16.0 16.3

15.1

8.03

10.5

11.2 11.2

12.4 12.6

11.9

11.3 11.3 11.6

10.8

5.40

7.01

7.75 7.82

8.62 8.89 8.61

7.95 7.70 7.76 7.40

2.77

3.85

4.45 4.71

5.23 5.30 5.20 5.00

4.11 4.35 4.11

0.821 1.23

1.73 1.74

2.29 2.14 2.22 1.92

1.23 1.38 1.36

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

Billion Bushels

Supply Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1 Sep 1
2023 U.S. Corn Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 29, 2023

1.30

1.32

1.34

1.36

1.38

1.40

1.42

1.44

1.46

1.48

1.50

September

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
2022 U.S. Corn Crop

Balance Sheet

September 29, 2023

Sept. 1, 2022 Beginning Stocks 1,377 1,377 N C

2022 Production 13,730 13,715 ↓ 1 5

Imports 4 0 * 4 0 * N C

Total Supply 15,147 15,132 ↓ 15

Exports 1,665 * 1,665 * N C

Food, Seed, and Industrial 6,605 * 6,605 * N C

Measured Disappearance 8,270 * 8,270 * NC

Ending Stocks 1,452 * 1,361 ↓ 91

Residual 5,425 * 5,500 ↑ 76

* WAOB Forecast - September WASDE Report

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Change

(Million Bushels)

Previous

Estimates

(Million Bushels)

September 30

Estimates

(Million Bushels)
September 29, 2023

September 2023 Soybeans

Stocks

18%

12%

12%

8% 8%

42%

September 1, 2023 Soybean

Total Stocks By State

Iowa Illinois Minnesota Missouri Nebraska Other

27%

73%

September 1, 2023 Soybean

Stocks By Position

On-Farm Off-Farm

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Iowa 47,640 ↓ 7.6 12,000 ↑ 9.1 35,640 ↓ 12.1

Illinois 31,896 ↓ 3.2 7,200 ↓ 14.3 24,696 ↑ 0.6

Minnesota 31,447 ↑ 20.6 9,700 ↓ 1.0 21,747 ↑ 33.6

Missouri 21,577 ↑ 65.3 9,900 ↑ 167.6 11,677 ↑ 24.8

Nebraska 21,064 ↑ 3.8 5,600 ↑ 60.0 15,464 ↓ 7.9

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

268,205 72,000 196,205

↓ 2.3 ↑ 14.4 ↓ 7.2

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm
September 29, 2023

September 2023 Soybean Stocks

United States

3.21

3.50

4.02 4.12

4.49

4.71 4.87

4.46

4.74 4.72 4.54

1.97

2.15

2.53

2.71

2.90

3.16

3.75

3.25

2.95

3.14 3.02

0.998 0.994

1.33

1.53

1.74

2.11

2.73

2.25

1.56

1.93

1.69

0.435 0.405

0.627

0.872 0.966

1.22

1.78

1.38

0.769

0.968

0.796

0.141 0.092 0.191 0.197 0.302 0.438

0.909

0.525

0.257 0.274 0.268

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

Billion Bushels

Supply Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1 Sep 1
2023 U.S. Soybean Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 29, 2023

0.21

0.22

0.23

0.24

0.25

0.26

0.27

0.28

September

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
2022 U.S. Soybean Crop

Balance Sheet

September 29, 2023

Sept. 1, 2022 Beginning Stocks 274 274 N C

2022 Production 4,276 4,270 ↓ 6

Imports 3 0 * 3 0 * N C

Total Supply 4,581 4,575 ↓ 6

Crushings 2,220 * 2,220 * N C

Exports 1,990 * 1,990 * N C

Seed 9 7 * 9 7 * N C

Measured Disappearance 4,307 * 4,307 * NC

Ending Stocks 250 * 268 ↑ 18

Residual 24 * -1 ↓ 24

* WAOB Forecast - September WASDE Report

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Change

(Million Bushels)

Previous

Estimates

(Million Bushels)

September 30

Estimates

(Million Bushels)
September 29, 2023

September 2023

Stocks

Unit

Barley Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↑ 8.6 ↑ 2.3 ↑ 25.8

Durum Wheat Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↑ 6.5 ↑ 5.4 ↑ 8.2

Oats Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↑ 20.3 ↓ 14.9 ↑ 90.4

Sorghum Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↓ 48.7 ↓ 43.5 ↓ 49.0

Sunflower Pounds

% Change from Previous Year ↑ 24.7 ↑ 213.3 ↓ 9.8

75,245

55,644

24,079

39,795

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

(1,000 Units) (1,000 Units) (1,000 Units)

179,794

57,279

124,150

33,200

35,450

1,389 22,856

142,600 224,629

24,245

367,229
Selected Upcoming Reports

September 29, 2023

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

Cotton System

Fats & Oils

Grain Crushings

Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

Cattle on Feed

Cotton Ginnings

October 25 Rice Stocks

October 31 Agricultural Prices

October 2

October 12

October 20
Data Users’ Meeting

September 29, 2023

USDA Fall Data Users’ Meeting

October 17 & 18, 2023

12:00 – 3:00 p.m. ET

For more information and to register please go to

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September 29, 2023
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