HOGS & PIGS INVENTORY

Executive Briefing

December 1, 2014 

December 23, 2014

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
December Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period:

November 29 – December 12

Sample Size:

10,939

Collection Methods:

Phone, mail, internet, and personal interview

Primary Data Items:

• Total inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter 

• Sows farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

December 23, 2014
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Revisions

Initial

Estimate

Previous 

Revision

Current

Revision

Net 

Revision

Current 

Estimate

Jun

2014

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

62.1 million -545,000

-0.9%

-15,000

-0.02%

-560,000

-0.9%

61.6 million

Pig 

Crop 27.4 million +134,000

+0.5%

27.5 million

Sep

2014

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

65.4 million -230,000

-0.4%

65.1 million

December 23, 2014
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Inventory

December 1, 2014

Inventory Items (000) Hd % PY

All Hogs & Pigs 66,050 102%

Breeding Hogs 5,969 104%

Market Hogs 60,082 102%

Sep – Nov Pig Crop 29,373 104%

Sows Farrowing 2,871 103%

Litter Rate Number % PY

Sep – Nov 2014 10.23 101%

Farrowing Intentions (000) Hd % PY

Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 2,870 104%

Mar – May 2015 2,900 103%

December 23, 2014
58

60

62

64

66

68

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory

December 1, 2014

66.1 

December 23, 2014
NASS Estimates Compared to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 102.0% 101.5% 100.8% – 102.5%

Breeding Hogs 103.7% 103.0% 102.0% – 103.5%

Market Hogs 101.8% 101.3% 100.6% – 102.4%

Sep – Nov Pig Crop 104.0% 103.3% 102.4% – 104.4%

Farrowing Intentions

Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 103.9% 103.8% 103.0% – 104.3%

Mar – May 2015 103.2% 103.9% 102.6% – 105.1%

December 23, 2014
 59

 61

 63

 65

 67

 69

 71

 Dec

08

 Jun

09

 Dec

09

 Jun

10

 Dec

10

 Jun

11

 Dec

11

 Jun

12

 Dec

12

 Jun

13

 Dec

13

 Jun

14

 Dec

14 Million Head

All Hogs and Pigs

Board vs Trade Expectations

ASB Final Est Trade ASB First Est

December 23, 2014
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

S-N

10

D-F

11

M-M

11

J-A

11

S-N

11

D-F

12

M-M

12

J-A

12

S-N

12

D-F

13

M-M

13

J-A

13

S-N

13

D-F

14

M-M

14

J-A

14

S-N

14

Feeder Pigs Slaughter

Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

December 23, 2014
2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed 

September - November

ASB Estimate Dec-Feb Intentions Mar-May Intentions Million Head

December 23, 2014
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Sep 1

Estimate Slaughter Additions Dec 1Estimate

Sow

Utilization

(000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd Percent

2005 5,993 866 904 6,031 48%

2006 6,099 947 965 6,116 48%

2007 6,208 976 1,001 6,233 51%

2008 6,061 957 958 6,062 50%

2009 5,875 941 917 5,850 50%

2010 5,770 849 858 5,778 50%

2011 5,806 880 877 5,803 50%

2012 5,788 887 918 5,819 50%

2013 5,816 826 767 5,757 48%

2014 5,920 815 864 5,969 48%

December 23, 2014
8.80

9.00

9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

10.20

10.40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter 

September - November

10.23

December 23, 2014
10.23

8.10

8.80

9.20

9.60

10.10

10.30

7.25

7.75

8.25

8.75

9.25

9.75

10.25

10.75

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1000-1999 2000-4999 5000+

Size of Operation

U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

September – November 2014

December 23, 2014
$1.75

$2.25

$2.75

$3.25

$3.75

$4.25

$4.75

$5.25

$5.75

$6.25

$6.75

$7.25

$7.75

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Year

U.S. Prices Received by Farmers 

for Hogs & Corn 

Hogs Corn Hogs $/cwt

Corn $/bu

December 23, 2014
Upcoming Reports

December 30 Agricultural Prices

January 12 Grain Stocks,

Crop Production

January 23 Cattle on Feed

January 30 Cattle,

Sheep and Goats,

Agricultural Prices

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

December 23, 2014
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions Call or Email

202-720-3570

800-727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

December 23, 2014