Discussion Draft February 11, 2013

Updated July 11, 2013

Revised February 5, 2014

1990 2017 2019 1990 Base Year 1990 Base Year

VMT 52,198,974 114,919,482 120,126,275 2017 Attainment Year 2019 Attainment Year

ROG 195.70 30.15 33.42

NOx 285.25 116.42 101.50

ROG NOx Calendar Year No New Measures

with VMT Growth

No New Measures and No Growth

and No New Trips and No Population Growth

Actual Emissions

 with Controls and VMT Growth*

EMFAC2011LDV With CY2017 "2013 FTIP" VMT

(No New Measures with VMT Growth) 142.32 196.06 1990

EMFAC2011HD With CY2017 "2013 FTIP" VMT

(No New Measures with VMT Growth) 35.55 286.18 2017 177.87 80.94 29.93

LDV + HD Total 177.87 482.24 * Includes ACC

EMFAC2011LDV With CY1990 VMT

(No New Measures and No Growth and No New Trips and No Population Growth) 64.79 79.77

EMFAC2011HD With CY1990 VMT

(No New Measures and No Growth and No Population Growth) 16.15 129.86 No New Measures

with VMT Growth

No New Measures and No Growth

and No New Trips and No Population Growth

Actual Emissions

 with Controls and VMT Growth*

LDV + HD Total 80.94 209.63 1990

* Special EMFAC2011LDV Model with FCF=1 2017 482.24 209.63 116.09

* Includes ACC

ROG NOx Calendar Year No New Measures

with VMT Growth

No New Measures and No Growth

and No New Trips and No Population Growth

Actual Emissions

 with Controls and VMT Growth

EMFAC2011LDV With CY2019 "2013 FTIP" VMT

(No New Measures with VMT Growth) 184.62 206.14 1990

EMFAC2011HD With CY2019 "2013 FTIP" VMT

(No New Measures with VMT Growth) 38.13 305.51 2019 222.75 96.33 33.42

LDV + HD Total 222.75 511.65

EMFAC2011LDV With CY1990 VMT

(No New Measures and No Growth and No New Trips and No Population Growth) 80.20 79.02

EMFAC2011HD With CY1990 VMT

(No New Measures and No Growth and No Population Growth) 16.13 128.81 No New Measures

with VMT Growth

No New Measures and No Growth

and No New Trips and No Population Growth

Actual Emissions

 with Controls and VMT Growth

LDV + HD Total 96.33 207.83 1990

* Special EMFAC2011LDV Model with FCF=1 2019 511.65 207.83 101.50

Default EMFAC2011-SG SJV Activity and Emissions (tpd)

Four Tables Below Contain Data For Charts

Text for Chart Labels

(do not delete)

Note: This analysis uses "2013 FTIP" activity, using CY2017 VMT for CY2017, and using CY2020 VMT for CY2019.

NOx Emissions Using SJV "2013 FTIP" VMT Base Year 1990 and 2019 Future Year (For Charts)

ROG Emissions Using SJV "2013 FTIP" VMT Base Year 1990 and 2019 Future Year (For Charts)

NOx Emissions Using SJV "2013 FTIP" VMT Base Year 1990 and 2017 Future Year (For Charts)

ROG Emissions Using SJV "2013 FTIP" VMT Base Year 1990 and 2017 Future Year (For Charts) Calendar Year 2017

With 1990 Technologies and SJV "2013 FTIP" VMT*

Calendar Year 2019

With 1990 Technologies and SJV "2013 FTIP" VMT*

C:\Users\jungvars\Documents\Project folders\San Joaquin Valley\SJV 1-hr ozone\NPR\docket files\

Copy of D-22 c SJV VMT Offset Demonstration.Summary Emissions Chart.xlsx

Summary Emissions - Chart February 8, 2013

Additional supporting data in xl spreadsheet format available upon request. Please contact John Ungvarsky at 415-972-3963 or ungvarsky.john@epa.gov

San Joaquin Valley VMT Offset Demonstration -- Supporting data and summary for 1-Hour Ozone Standard