Hogs & Pigs Inventory

December 1, 2015

Executive Briefing

December 23, 2015

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview

December Hogs & Pigs

Data Collection Period November 30 – December 14

Sample Size 11,116

Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview

Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter

sows farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

December 23, 2015
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Previous 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

June 1, 2015 All Hogs 

and Pigs 66,900 00.0%

+165

+0.2%

+165

+0.2% 67,065

Pig Crop 29,563 +30

+0.1% 29,593

September 1, 2015 All Hogs 

and Pigs 68,395 -220-0.3% 68,175

December 23, 2015
U.S. Hogs & Pigs December 1

Items 2014 2015 % PY

1,000 head

All Hogs & Pigs 67,776 68,299 101

Breeding Hogs 5,939 6,002 101

Market Hogs 61,838 62,297 101

180 lbs & over 11,671 12,296 105

120-179 lbs 13,000 13,210 102

50-119 lbs 17,366 17,282 100

less than 50 lbs 19,801 19,508 99

Sows Farrowed 2,994 2,875 96

Pig Crop 30,633 30,271 99

number

Pigs per Litter 10.23 10.53 103

1,000 head

December-February Farrowings 2,895 2,840 98

March-May Farrowings 2,854 2,850 100

December 23, 2015
68.3

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Million head

U.S. Quarterly Hogs & Pigs

2006 - 2015

December 23, 2015
NASS Estimates Compared

to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items

NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 100.8% 101.4% 100.7% – 101.9%

Breeding Hogs 101.1% 100.9% 100.0% – 102.1%

Market Hogs 100.7% 101.5% 100.7% – 102.2%

Sep – Nov Pig Crop 98.8% 99.7% 99.2% – 100.2%

Farrowing Intentions

Dec 2015 – Feb 2016 98.1% 99.6% 98.6% – 100.3%

Mar – May 2016 99.9% 100.5% 98.5% – 103.3%

December 23, 2015
59

61

63

65

67

69

71

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Million head

ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range

All Hogs and Pigs

First Estimate Versus Final Estimate

2006 - 2015

December 23, 2015
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2006-2015

2.88

2.85

2.84

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million head

Sep-Nov Estimate Dec-Feb Intentions Mar-May Intentions

December 23, 2015
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Sep 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Dec 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2006 6,099 947 965 6,116 48

2007 6,208 976 1,001 6,233 51

2008 6,061 964 965 6,062 50

2009 5,875 941 917 5,850 50

2010 5,770 849 858 5,778 50

2011 5,806 880 877 5,803 50

2012 5,788 887 918 5,819 50

2013 5,816 826 767 5,757 48

2014 5,920 801 821 5,939 51

2015 5,986 797 814 6,002 48

December 23, 2015
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2006-2015

10.23 10.39

10.53

9.0

9.3

9.6

9.9

10.2

10.5

10.8

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

December 23, 2015
U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

September-November 2015

10.53

8.20

8.90

9.30

9.70

10.30

10.60

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000+

Pigs per Litter

Size of Operation

December 23, 2015
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter

December 23, 2015
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs & Corn

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Corn $/bu

Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn

December 23, 2015
Upcoming NASS Reports

Release Date Report Title

December 30 Agricultural Prices

January 4 Cotton System Consumption and Stocks

Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production

Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, 

Consumption and Stocks 

January 12 Cotton Ginnings

Grain Stocks

Crop Production

Crop Production – Annual

January 22 Cattle on Feed

Milk Production

January 29 Cattle

Sheep & Goats

Agricultural Prices

December 23, 2015
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

December 23, 2015