Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

September 28, 2017

Executive Briefing

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview

September Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period August 31 – September 15

Sample Size 7,560

Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview

Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter;

Sows Farrowing; Pig Crop; and Pigs per Litter

September 28, 2017
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Previous 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

September 1, 2016 All Hogs 

and Pigs 70,851 +1,035+1.5%

-100

-0.1%

+935

+1.3% 71,786

March 1, 2017 All Hogs 

and Pigs 70,976 -55-0.1%

-250

-0.4%

-305

-0.4% 70,671

Pig Crop 31,400 No revision -262

-0.8%

-262

-0.8% 31,138

June 1, 2017 All Hogs 

and Pigs 71,650 -220-0.3%

-220

-0.3% 71,430

September 28, 2017
U.S. Hogs and Pigs September 1

Item 2016 2017 % PY

1,000 head

All Hogs and Pigs 71,786 73,549 102

Breeding Hogs 6,016 6,087 101

Market Hogs 65,770 67,462 103

less than 50 lbs 21,215 21,568 102

50-119 lbs 19,271 19,626 102

120-179 lbs 13,600 14,129 104

180 lbs & over 11,683 12,139 104

Sows Farrowed 3,057 3,103 102

Pig Crop 32,331 33,048 102

number

Pigs per Litter 10.58 10.65 101

1,000 head

Sep-Nov Farrowings 3,046 3,070 101

Dec-Feb Farrowings 2,986 3,025 101

September 28, 2017
U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

2008 - 2017

September 28, 2017

71.4

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million head

September 1 June 1

71.8

73.5
September 1, 2017 

Hogs and Pigs Inventory

Head (1,000) and Percent of Previous Year

September 28, 2017

Inventory Down Up No Change

Non-published States

3,189

103
Trade Expectations Compared

to NASS Estimates 

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items

NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs and Pigs 102.5% 102.5% 101.7% – 103.3%

Breeding Hogs 101.2% 101.2% 100.8% – 101.4%

Market Hogs 102.6% 102.6% 101.7% – 103.5%

Jun – Aug Pig Crop 102.2% 101.8% 100.3% – 103.0%

Farrowing Intentions

Sep – Nov 100.8% 100.6% 99.7% – 101.0%

Dec – Feb 101.3% 100.1% 97.8% – 101.2%

September 28, 2017
59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million head

ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range

All Hogs and Pigs

First Estimate Versus Final Estimate

2008 - 2017

September 28, 2017
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2008-2017

3.07

3.02

3.10

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million head

Jun-Aug Estimate Sep-Nov Intentions Dec-Feb Intentions

September 28, 2017
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition and Utilization

Year

Jun 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Sep 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2008 6,131 1,017 947 6,061 50

2009 5,968 963 870 5,875 50

2010 5,788 818 800 5,770 51

2011 5,803 848 851 5,806 50

2012 5,862 859 785 5,788 50

2013 5,884 796 728 5,816 49

2014 5,855 751 816 5,920 51

2015 5,926 798 858 5,986 51

2016 5,979 802 839 6,016 51

2017 6,069 828 846 6,087 51

September 28, 2017
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2008-2017

September 28, 2017

10.55

10.58

10.65

9.30

9.60

9.90

10.20

10.50

10.80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pigs per Litter

Jun-Aug Mar-May
U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

June - August 2017

10.65

7.80

8.50

9.10

9.50

10.40

10.70

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000+

Pigs per Litter

Size of Operation

September 28, 2017
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter

September 28, 2017
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs and Corn

September 28, 2017

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Corn $/bu

Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn
Upcoming NASS Reports

Release Date Report Title

September 29 Small Grains Summary and Grain Stocks

October 2 Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Grain Crushings

October 12 Crop Production

October 20 Milk Production and Cattle on Feed

October 30 Agricultural Prices

September 28, 2017
September 28, 2017
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 28, 2017