BUILDING TECHNOLOGIE

June 3‐4, 201

Buildin

Energy Efficiency 

D

ASRAC FAN WORKING GROUPMeetings 5 and 6
2

Topics

1. May 1st NODA results

2. Revised Results for Unducted Fans
3

Scope of the May 1st NODA

• Scope of the analysis presented in the May 1st NODA

– Fan types included in analysis

• Axial Fans

• Centrifugal Fans

• Inline and Mixed Flow Fans

• Radial Fans• Power Roof Ventilator Fans

– Fan types NOT included in analysis

• Safety Fans• Cross Flow Fans

• Circulating Fans

• Induced Flow fans• Air Curtains

– Scope limit for this particular analysis

• The fan has a maximum shaft input power of at least 1 horsepower (0.7

greater than 200 horsepower (149 kW) at its maximum speed
4

Fan Selection Data

• Air Movement and

Control Association

(AMCA). 2012 Detailed

Confidential Fan Sales

Data. November 2014.

(17 manufacturers).

• Includes performance

and selection information

for over 70,000 fanselections representing100,000 units sold.

• Did not include speed

data.
5

Efficiency levels analyzed

EL Efficiency Target Non‐compliant fan selections

EL0 0.54 0%EL1 0.58 5%EL2 0.62 8%EL3 0.66 11%EL4 0.70 15%EL5 0.74 21%EL6 0.86 47%

Note: A target of 0.62 was used to present results for ducted fans in AMCA’s DOE Fan eff

Proposal presented at the 59th AMCA Annual Meeting, January 24, 2015

http://www.amca.org/adovacy/documents/DOEFanEfficiencyProposal‐AMCAAnnualMe
6

Engineering Analysis Overview

Select

efficiency levels

to analyze

Model MPC Incorp

Redesig

• The purpose of the Engineering Analysis is to characterize the relationsh

manufacturer production costs and more efficient fan designs.

• Baseline – represents least

efficient fans (achievable

by most AMCA database

models)

• Max Tech – represents

most efficient models

(retains some fans of each

type from AMCA DB)

• Intermediate – selected

for analysis between

baseline and max tech

• Select representative

models ‐ span the range of

class, size, efficiency,

manufacturers, etc.

• Generate Bills of Materials

(BOM) ‐ Physical and virtual

teardowns

• Estimate MPC – using cost

model

• Estimate num

redesigned a

level

• Estimate per 

cost

• Calculate tota

at each effici

• Include redes

–efficiency re
7

Engineering Analysis: Equipment Subgroups

Equipment groups divided into subgroups based on impeller type or presence of guide vanes Fan Group Subgroup Database Cat

Centrifugal Housed

Airfoil Airfoil

Backward Curved Backward Bla

Backward InclinedForward Curved Forward Curv

Centrifugal Unhoused

Airfoil

Backward Curved Centrifugal UBackward Inclined

Inline and Mixed Flow

Mixed Flow ‐ Airfoil Mixed Flow Mixed Flow ‐ Single Thickness

Centrifugal Inline ‐ Airfoil

Centrifugal In

Centrifugal Inline ‐ Backward Curved Centrifugal Inline ‐ Backward Inclined

Centrifugal Inline ‐ Forward Curved

Radial

Open Radial

Radial Radial Tip Shrouded Radial

Backplate Radial

Power Roof Ventilator

Centrifugal PRV ‐ Airfoil

Centrifugal P

Centrifugal PRV ‐ Backward Curved Centrifugal PRV ‐ Backward Inclined

Centrifugal PRV ‐ Forward CurvedAxial PRV ‐ Panel/Propeller Axial PRV

Axial PRV ‐ Tubeaxial

Axial Housed Vane Axial Vane Axial Tube Axial Tube AxialAxial Unhoused Panel Panel/Propeller Panel/Propel
8

Engineering Analysis: MPC

• DOE conducted teardowns to generate

bills of materials (BOM).

– Physical Teardowns conducted on 5 units from

4/26 subgroups

– Virtual Teardowns conducted on remaining

subgroups

• DOE used BOMs as inputs to a cost model

that calculates MPC

Raw Materials

Finished

Materials

Fabrication

Processes

B
9

Engineering Analysis: MPC (con.)

Example of MPC results:

Raw Material Costs $222.34 Direct cost of raw materials

Purchased Parts Material Costs $139.87 Direct cost of purchased parts

Assembly Labor Cost $109.54 Component and unit assembly on manufa

Fabrication Labor Cost $299.14 Conversion of raw material into parts read

Supervision Cost $21.25 Fraction of indirect labor that is paid a high

Indirect Labor Cost $141.88 Fraction of overall labor not associated dir

manufacturing (e.g. forklift drivers, quality 

Equipment Depreciation Cost $38.55 Straight line depreciation over expected eq

Tooling Depreciation Cost $3.56 Cost is allocated on a per‐use basis or obso

whichever is shorter

Building Depreciation Cost $25.40 Straight line depreciation over expected b

Indirect Process Costs $35.24 Consumables including welding rods, lubri

as well as paint and related processes

Maintenance Costs $21.48 Based on installed equipment and tooling 

Utility Costs $8.35 A fixed fraction of all material costs meant 

and other utility costs

Property Tax $9.60 A fixed fraction based on total unit costs

Insurance $8.61 A fixed fraction based on total unit costs

Total $1,084.80
10

$0

$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500

0 10 20 30 40 50

MPC [$]

Diameter [in]

MPC as a Function of Diameter

MPC Fit, Centrifugal Housed AirfoilTeardown MPC, Centrifugal Housed Airfoil

Engineering Analysis: MPC vs. Diameter

ܣ ൌ ܥܲܯ

ൌ ܣ

ൌ ܤ

DOE used teard

characterize the 

between MPC a

impeller/blade 
11

$0

$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500

0 10 20 30 40 50

MPC [$]

Diameter [in]

MPC Scaling as a Function of Diameter

MPC Fit, Centrifugal Housed AirfoilMPC Fit Adjusted for Centrifugal Unhoused Backward InclinedTeardown MPC, Centrifugal Housed AirfoilTeardown MPC, Centrifugal Unhoused Backward Inclined

Engineering Analysis: MPC vs. Diameter

DOE established (M) to adjust M

each subgroup

ܯܲܥ ൌ ܯ ൈ ሺ18

Centrifugal Unho

Inclined Example

MPC = 1.00 * (18.92*D + D ^ 2.10) Eq.1

MPC = 0.60 * (18.92*D + D ^ 2.10)

Diameter of CU‐BI fEstimated MPC of C

fanMPC @ 20.5” from 

Multiplier = x/y 
12

Engineering Analysis: MPC Results

• Calculated MPC individually for each subgroup

• Not all subgroups were differentiated in the AMCA database, s

averaged subgroup MPCs to be consistent with fan categories a

AMCA database

– E.g., The AMCA database did not differentiate airfoil, BI and BC un

centrifugal fans, so DOE averaged its MPC results for those subgro

representative MPC for unhoused centrifugal fans.

• Weighted fan group MPCs based on distribution of subgro

shipments in AMCA database at each energy use level
13

Engineering Analysis: MPC Results (con.)

EL 0 1 2 3 4 

Centrifugal Housed

MWEIGHTED 0.81 0.84 0.87 0.89 0.90 

Diameter [in] 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 

Example MPC [$] 255 747 1,495 265 775 1,550 274 803 1,606 282 824 1,649 284 830 1,660 298 

Centrifugal Unhoused

MWEIGHTED 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 

Diameter [in] 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 

Example MPC [$] 206 602 1,205 206 602 1,205 206 602 1,205 206 602 1,205 206 602 1,205 206 

Inline and Mixed Flow

MWEIGHTED 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.91 

Diameter [in] 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 

Example MPC [$] 282 824 1,650 283 828 1,656 283 828 1,657 285 833 1,666 288 841 1,684 299 

Radial

MWEIGHTED 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 

Diameter [in] 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 

Example MPC [$] 285 835 1,670 285 835 1,670 285 835 1,670 285 835 1,670 285 835 1,670 285 

Power Roof Ventilator

MWEIGHTED 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.58 0.58 

Diameter [in] 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 

Example MPC [$] 179 523 1,047 180 527 1,054 182 531 1,063 183 535 1,070 184 537 1,074 184 

Axial Housed

MWEIGHTED 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 

Diameter [in] 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 

Example MPC [$] 316 925 1,851 317 929 1,858 321 938 1,876 322 940 1,882 322 942 1,884 322 

Axial Unhoused Panel

MWEIGHTED 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 

Diameter [in] 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 

Example MPC [$] 62 181 361 62 181 361 62 181 361 62 181 361 62 181 361 62 
14

Manufacturer Markup

• Applied to manufacturer production cost (MPC) to arrive at manu

selling price (MSP) in the base case

– Base case manufacturer markup in NODA = 1.45

• Incorporated conversion cost recovery markups at efficiency leve

baseline in the standards case
15

Engineering Analysis: Outputs

• The following three results were passed on to the downstream an

– MPC by equipment group and efficiency level

– Manufacturer Markup

– Total industry conversion costs by equipment group and efficiency le

• The conversion cost recovery markup was calculated as part of th

– Same approach as used in pumps
16

Redesign Costs

• DOE recognizes that fan efficiency is improved predominantly t

aerodynamic redesign

• Aerodynamic redesign costs do not necessarily impact MPC, ra

require investment in R&D, testing, and other conversion costs

• DOE developed a “cost recovery markup” methodology to acco

aerodynamic redesign costs in the cost‐efficiency relationships 

analysis

• The cost recovery markup is

– based on the total cost of aerodynamic redesigns to the industry 

meet a given efficiency level

– applied to MPC to calculate the manufacturer selling price that w

manufacturers to recover redesign costs
17

Manufacturer Selling Price (MSP)

DOE estimated product and capital conversion costs to determine a markup enable manufacturers to recover these costs:

*Product and capital conversion costs were modeled as the same regardles

Product Conversion Costs

• Modeled as the same for each

subgroup

• 12 months total redesign time

• 6 months testing time

• Added costs for non‐DOE

certifications and marketing

• Labor rates from Bureau of Labor

Statistics

Capital Conversion 

• Modeled as different for 

subgroup

• Assumes investments in

fabrication and tooling

ࡹ	࢟࢘ࢋ࢜࢕ࢉࢋࡾ	࢚࢙࢕࡯	࢔࢕࢏࢙࢘ࢋ࢜࢔࢕࡯	 ൈ	 ࢖࢛࢑࢘ࢇࡹ	࢘ࢋ࢛࢚࢘ࢉࢇࢌ࢛࢔ࢇࡹ	 ൌ	 ࡼࡿࡹ
18

Industry Conversion Costs

DOE estimated the total industry conversion costs to be recovered f

equipment class at each efficiency level

• DOE estimated the number of individual models (from the AMCA 

that would be redesigned at each efficiency level

– Unique manufacturer, model number, and size combinations constituted uniq

– All fans redesigned at the efficiency level being analyzed would be redesigne

efficiency level

• DOE estimated the per model redesign cost

– Redesigned models are distributed in the subgroups within each class in the 

the subgroups that exist at that efficiency level today

– Example: If 100 housed axial models were evaluated as requiring redesign at 

30% of the housed axial fans between EL 5 and EL 6 were vane axial and 70% 

then DOE assumed that 30 fans would be aerodynamically redesigned to be v

to be tube axial.
19

Conversion Cost Results

Equipment Class Total Conversion Cost

EL 0 EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 

Axial Housed $0 $32,871,798 $41,217,988 $47,938,597 $57,084,416 $70,533

Axial Unhoused

Panel $0 $3,887,546 $4,616,461 $5,102,404 $7,046,177 $8,504,

Centrifugal Housed $0 $20,734,126 $31,178,328 $37,265,951 $53,914,759 $81,961

CentrifugalUnhoused $0 $4,086,444 $7,005,332 $8,172,887 $10,507,998 $16,345Inline and Mixed

Flow $0 $40,280,658 $47,285,990 $57,484,929 $70,008,412 $95,245

Radial $0 $18,792,235 $24,077,551 $40,520,756 $58,138,476 $85,152Power Roof/WallVentilators $0 $37,232,625 $42,955,703 $56,380,873 $83,529,410 $103,261
20

Manufacturer Impact Analysis: Overview

• An MIA was performed on manufacturers of equipment covered in the N

• Two markup scenarios were modeled to capture the range of potential o

manufacturers may experience following the implementation of energy c

standards on commercial and industrial fans.

• Conversion Cost Pass Through Markup Scenario (Upper Bound)

‐ In this scenario, manufacturers are able to increase their prices of rem

commercial and industrial fans to fully recover the conversion costs aremodeling, testing, and certifying those fans.

‐ This markup scenario represents the upper bound of profitability for m

since they are able to fully recover all of their conversion costs.

• Flat Markup Scenario (Lower Bound)

‐ In this scenario, manufacturers maintain the same manufacturer mar

case as they do in the standards cases.

‐ This markup scenario represents the lower bound of profitability for m

since they are not able to recover any of their conversion costs.
21

Manufacturer Impact Analysis: Results (Table)

• INPV Results for the Conversion Cost Pass Through Markup Scenario (U* Numbers in parentheses represent negative values.• INPV Results for the Flat Markup Scenario (Lower Bound)

EL 0 EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 

INPV (2014$ MM) 719.0 671.5 659.7 643.3 616.8 5

Change in INPV(2014$ MM)

‐ (47.5) (59.3) (75.7) (102.2) (1

Change in INPV (%) ‐ ‐6.6% ‐8.2% ‐10.5% ‐14.2% ‐1

EL 0 EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 

INPV (2014$ MM) 719.0 612.5 585.6 548.8 489.7 4

Change in INPV(2014$ MM)

‐ (106.5) (133.4) (170.1) (229.3) (3

Change in INPV (%) ‐ ‐14.8% ‐18.5% ‐23.7% ‐31.9% ‐4
22

Manufacturer Impact Analysis: Results (Graph)

• Potential INPV impacts of standards on commercial and industrial fan m

% Change in NPV 

‐120%‐100%

‐80%‐60%‐40%‐20%

0%

20%

EL 0 EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 

Flat Markup Constant Cost Pass Through Markup
23

Manufacturer Impact Analysis: Small Business

• There are approximately 93 small businesses that could be affected by p

commercial and industrial fan energy conservation standards. 35 of thes

businesses are AMCA members.

• Based on preliminary market research, DOE has determined that the ave

manufacturer typically offers fewer fan models, ships fewer units, and ge

revenue per model than an average large fan manufacturer. This could p

businesses at a disadvantage because any conversion costs they may inc

to be spread over fewer units and smaller annual revenues.

• Small manufacturers may also be at a disadvantage regarding potential c

industrial fan energy conservation standards due to a lack of engineering 

a lack of experience in designing higher efficiency equipment.

• DOE found in an analysis of its commercial and industrial fan product dat

average, a smaller percentage of small manufacturers’ product offerings 

efficiency level compared to larger manufacturers.
24

Life‐Cycle Cost Calculation Overview

• The life‐cycle cost (LCC) is the sum of the total installed costs and lifeti

costs.

– Total installation costs: Consumer price + Installation costs

– Lifetime Operating costs: Electricity costs + Repair & Maintenance costs

• Inputs to the total installed costs calculation include:

– Manufacturer selling prices

– Total Conversion Costs

– Distribution channel markups

• Inputs to the lifetime operating costs calculation include:

– Discount rates

– Electricity prices

– Lifetime– Annual energy consumption

• Results are expressed in terms of LCC difference between the no stand

(situation without standards) and each considered standards case.
25

Life‐Cycle Cost Calculation Overview

• In addition, DOE developed a sample of individual fan selections (i.e

models and the operating flow and pressure values for which they w

purchased) using fan sales data provided by AMCA

• By developing this sample, DOE was able to perform the LCC and PB

calculations for each fan selection to account for the variability in en

consumption associated with each fan selection

• The LCC calculations assumes that if a fan selection fails to meet a co

it is replaced either by an existing compliant unit or by a redesign fa
26

Life‐Cycle Cost Calculation Overview

• Criteria to qualify as a "s

fan:

– Same fan category;– Design flow within 20

– Design Total Pressure – Same diameter or up 

above (conservative)

• In order to be selected a

substitute, the replacem

needs to be a compliant 

considered flow (FEI>=1

• If a non compliant fan h

one substitute, the fan c

terms of Design Airflow, 

Pressure and Price is sel

replacement fan.

LCC SAMPLE of fan

selections

Is the Fan

FEI<1?

No Yes

The base case fan

is replaced by an

existing unit that

meets or exceeds

the considered EL

No Yes

MSP remains the same

as in the base case

MSP is replaced by the

MSP of the substitute

unit

MSP is replaced by the

MSP of the redesigned

unit

The base case fan

is replaced by a

redesigned fan

that exactly meets

the considered EL

The consumer is

not impacted by the

considered standard

and keeps the same

fan as in the base

case

Is there an

existing fan

“substitute”?

NO IMPACT RESELECTION REDESIGN
27

Total Installed Cost Calculation: MSP

• In the no standards case, DOE calculated the MSP of each fan in the LC

applying equations from the engineering analysis:

ܯܵܲ_௢௡ௌ்஽ ൌ 	ܯܲC௡௢_ௌ்஽ ൈ ܯܯ

– Where

• ܯܲC௡௢_ௌ்஽: manufacturer production cost in the no standards case

• ܯܵܲ_௢௡ௌ்஽: manufacturer selling price in the no standards case

• ܯܯ: Manufacturer markup• ݊݋_ܵܶܦ: corresponds to the fan’s efficiency level in the no standards c

• If the fan is replaced by a existing fan (reselection), the fan has the pri

reselected fan
28

Manufacturer Selling Price• If the fan is redesigned, the calculation of the MSP of the redesigned fa

in two steps and assumes manufacturers recover the total conversion c

years of shipments.

• Step 1: Calculation of the MSP for the redesigned fan (MPC increase on

conversion costs)

– All consumers with a non compliant fan purchase a redesigned fan with a h

ܯܵܲா௅ ൌ 	ܯܲCா௅ ൈ ܯܯ

• Step 2: Adding the conversion costs to the MSP to ensure full cost reco

– Calculation of the MSP for the redesigned fan (with conversion costs):

ܯܵܲா௅,௥௘ௗ௘௦௜௚௡௘ௗ ൌ ܯܵܲா௅ ൈ ܯܷ஼,ா௅	

ݏݐݏ݋ܥ	݊݋݅ݏݎ݁ݒ݊݋ܥ ൅ ௅ாܵܲܯ ൌ ௗ௜௚௡௘௦௘ௗ௥௘,௅ாܵܲܯ

• Where:

– ܯܷ஼,ா௅	: Conversion Costs Markup

– ݋ܥ݊ݒ݁ݏݎ݅݋݊	ݏݐݏ݋ܥ : MSP increase due to conversion costs
29

Conversion Markups• For each EL and fan category, calculation of the Conversion Cost Marku

– Calculation of the total annualized conversion costs:

ܶݐ݋݈ܽ	݋ܥ݊ݒ݁ݏݎ݅݋݊	ݏݐݏ݋ܥ ൌ ܶݐ݋݈ܽ	ܥܥ௎ௌ ൈ ஽ோಾೌ೙ೠ೑ ଵି భ ሺభశವೃಾೌ೙ೠ೑ሻయబ ൈ ௌ௔௟௘

• Where:

– ܶݐ݋݈ܽ	݋ܥ݊ݒ݁ݏݎ݅݋݊	ݏݐݏ݋ܥ:	total annualized conversion costs for t

– ܶݐ݋݈ܽ	ܥܥ௎ௌ: Total conversion costs (US market)

– ܦܴெ௔௡௨௙: Manufacturer discount rate

Conversion Cost Markup 

(100% recovery)

MUC,EL

Revenues from failing 

redesigned units 

(no cost recovery)

=

+

Total Annualized 

Conversion Costs 

(LCC Sample)

Revenues from failing 

redesigned units 

(no cost recovery)
30

Distribution Channel Markups

• DOE converts the MSPs into consumer prices by applying baseline a

distribution channel markups.

– Determination of the distribution channels (percentage of units sold)

– Estimate of the baseline and incremental markups for each party involve

Fan Category OEM → Distributor → End‐user Distributor → Contractor → End‐user Di

Axial Housed 47% 27% 

Axial Unhoused Panel 34% 57% 

Centrifugal Housed 32% 23% 

Centrifugal Unhoused 40% 6% 

Inline and Mixed Flow 8% 85% 

Radial 5% 3% PRV 5% 89% Weighted Average* 27% 43% 

Baseline Markup Incremental Markup

OEM 1.43 1.38Distributor 1.39 1.23Contractor 1.10 1.10

* May not add to 100% due to rounding; Based on Air Movement and Control Association International (2013) (A
31

Distribution Channel Markups• Baseline and Incremental Markups• Sources:

– U.S. Census Bureau (2007). Economic Census Manufacturing Industry Series (NA– U.S. Census Bureau (2012). Annual Wholesale Trade Survey, Machinery, Equipm

Merchant Wholesalers (NAICS 4238).

– RSMeans Construction Publishers & Consultants. (2013), Electrical Cost Data, 3

Edition. 2013. ed. J.H. Chiang, Kingston, MA.

– Sales Tax Clearinghouse, Inc. (last accessed on January 10, 2014), State sales tax 

combined average city and county rates

Fan Category Overall Baseline Markup* Overall Incremental Markup*

Axial Housed 1.83 1.59Axial Unhoused Panel 1.79 1.56

Centrifugal Housed 1.73 1.51

Centrifugal Unhoused 1.75 1.53

Inline and Mixed Flow 1.67 1.47

Radial 1.53 1.35PRV 1.65 1.46Weighted Average 1.73 1.51

* Includes 7% sales tax
32

Total Installed Cost Calculation

• In the no standards case, the price of each fan in the LCC sample is ca

ܧܳܲ_௢௡ௌ்஽ ൌ 	ܯܵܲ_௢௡ௌ்஽ ൈ ܯܷை௏ாோ஺௅௅_஻஺ௌா

– Where

• ܧܳܲ_௢௡ௌ்஽: consumer price in the no standards case

• ܯܵܲ_௢௡ௌ்஽: MSP of the fan in the no standards case

• ܯܷை௏ாோ஺௅௅_஻஺ௌா: Overall baseline distribution channel markup

• If the fan is redesigned, the calculation of the price of the redesigned 

performed by applying the baseline and the incremental markups:

– Where

• ܧܳܲா௅,௥௘ௗ௘௦௜௚௡௘ௗ: Standard case consumer price at the considered EL

• ܯܵܲா௅,௥௘ௗ௘௦௜௚௡௘ௗ: MSP of the redesigned fan (includes the conversion 

• ܯܷை௏ாோ஺௅௅_஻஺ௌா: Overall baseline distribution channel markup

ܧܳܲா௅,௥௘ௗ௘௦௜௚௡௘ௗ ൌ ܯܵܲ஺஻ௌா ൈ ܯܷை௏ாோ஺௅௅ಳಲೄಶ ൅ ሺܯܵܲா௅,௥௘ௗ௘௦௜௚௡௘ௗെܯܵܲ஺஻ௌாሻ 
33

Inputs to the Operating Cost Calculation

• Energy Use

– The annual unit energy consumption (UEC) in kWh/yr is calculated ba

following equation:

ܷܥܧ ௜ൌ ሾ ொ೔	ൈ	௉೔ ఎ೑ೌ೙,೔ൈ	଺ଷସଷ	ൈఎ೅,೔ ൅	ܮெ,௜ሿ ൈ 0.746 ൌ ஻ு௉೔ ଺ଷସଷ	ൈఎ೅,೔ 	൅	ܮெ,௜ሿ 

– Where

• ܷܥܧ௜: Unit energy consumption (kWh/yr) at operating point i,

• ܳ௜: operating flow (cfm) at operating point i,

• ܲ௜: operating total pressure (in. wg.) at operating point i,

• 	ߟ௡௔௙,௜: fan total efficiency at operating point i,

• ߟ், ௜: default transmission efficiency (%) at operating point i

• ܮெ,௜ : default electric motor losses (hp) at operating point i;

• ܪܤܲ௜: fan shaft input power (hp) at operating point i;

• 6343: conversion factor to I‐P units;

• 0.746: conversion factor to kWh/yr
34

Inputs to the Operating Cost Calculation

• Default Motor Characterization

– Motor Horsepower

• Sized using the fan shaft input power (BHP) and a 1.2 multiplie

– Motor pole configuration

• The AMCA fan database did not provide information regarding 

speed of the fan.

• Used a weighted average over the four pole configuration (900

and 3600 RPM) to assign an “weighted average efficiency” acro

– Motor performance at part load

• Used default part load curved identical to the ones used in the 

and industrial Pumps rulemaking analysis

• Default Transmission Characterization (belt‐drive)

– Used for fan selections sold as belt driven fan (based on AMCA 203
35

Inputs to the Operating Cost Calculation

• Operating hours

– Operating hours depend on the sector and application in wh

used

• Derived estimates of shipment by sector (industrial vs. co

• Derived estimates of shipments by applications (Clean A

Ventilation, Process Air, Combustion, Drying, Exhaust, Pr

Heating/Cooling, Other Applications)

• Established annual operating hour distributions for each 

application

• Operating flow and pressure

– Assumed a single operating point equal to the “design point” 

the AMCA database of fan selections
36

Inputs to the Operating Cost Calculation

• Distribution by sector

Horsepower Bin Axial Housed & Radial All Other Fan Cat

Bin HP IND COM IND 

P0 0.1‐1 100% 0% 0% 1

P1 1‐1.8 100% 0% 0% 1

P2 1.8‐3.25 100% 0% 2% 

P3 3.25‐5.85 100% 0% 2% 

P4 5.85‐10.54 100% 0% 2% 

P5 10.54‐18.98 100% 0% 2% P6 18.98‐34.2 100% 0% 2% P7 34.2‐61.62 100% 0% 61% P8 61.62‐111.01 100% 0% 61% P9 111.01‐200 100% 0% 73% 

Source: IHS Technology, Fans and Blowers Market Research Report, World (2014); Easton Consultants, I. 

Variable Frequency Drive. Retrieved February 9, 2011, from http://neea.org/research/reports/E00‐054.p
37

Inputs to the Operating Cost Calculation

Fan Group Clean Air Ventilation Exhaus

Axial Unhoused Panel 61% 39%

Centrifugal Housed 100% 0%

Centrifugal Unhoused 100% 0%

Inline and Mixed Flow 100% 0%

Power Roof Ventilator n/a 100%

Average Commercial

Sector 6,731 6,219

• Distribution by application and operating hours

– Commercial Sector:

• Average:• Distributions:

Bin Min Max

1 876 1,7522 1,752 2,6283 2,628 3,5044 3,504 4,3805 4,380 5,2566 5,256 6,1327 6,132 7,0088 7,008 7,8849 7,884 8,759

10 8,760 8,760

Sources: IHS Technology, Fans and Blowers Market Research Report, World (2014); 

U.S. DOE EnergyPlus Energy Simulation Software (August 2014).

0.00%5.00%

10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 

Operating Hours Distribution

Commercial ‐ Clean Air Ventilation Commercial ‐ Exh
38

Inputs to the Operating Cost Calculation

Fan Group Clean Air Ventilation Process Air Combustion Drying Exhaust Pro

Hea

Coo

Axial Housed 51.0% 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 8.0% 30

Axial

Unhoused

Panel

37.0% 22.0% 6.0% n/a n/a 33

Centrifugal

Housed 42.0% 17.0% 5.0% 3.0% 7.0% 25

Centrifugal

Unhoused 51.0% 31.0% 0.0% n/a 0.0% n

Inline and

Mixed Flow 66.0% n/a 8.0% n/a 11.0% n

Radial n/a 32.0% 9.0% n/a 40.5% n

Power Roof

Ventilator 72.0% n/a n/a n/a 11.5% n

Av. Indus. 6,276 5,759 6,827 6,701 5,999 6,

• Distribution by Application

– Industrial Sector

Sources: *Database of motor nameplate and field measurement data compiled by the Washington State University Extension Energ

Proactive Technologies (APT) under contract with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA). 201

(January, 2008), Northwest Industrial Motor Database Summary. from Regional Technical Forum. Retrieved March 5, 2013 from

http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/subcommittees/osumotor/Default.htm ;

IHS Technology, Fans and Blowers Market Research Report, World (2014).
39

Energy Use Analysis

• Average annual energy use by fan group for each considered stan

(kWh)

Fan Category EL0 (No standard) EL1 EL2 EL3 EL4 

Axial Housed 47,648 47,126 46,972 46,668 46,451 

Axial Unhoused Panel 19,804 19,734 19,697 19,629 19,480 Centrifugal Housed 74,569 74,061 73,794 73,526 73,025 Centrifugal Unhoused 79,886 79,848 79,819 79,772 79,670 Inline & Mixed Flow 27,599 26,421 25,965 25,435 24,898 Radial 56,622 55,894 55,482 54,914 54,101 Power Roof Ventilator 16,080 15,652 15,490 15,311 15,010 
40

Inputs to the Operating Cost Calculation

• Lifetimes (includes repairs)

– Sources:

• ASHRAE HVAC Service Life and Maintenance Query Database (2014)

• Industry Expert Interview (2014)

Fan Group Lifetime Mechanical Lifetime Hours of O

Axial Housed 29 185,091 6,4

Axial Unhoused Panel 28 182,873 6,5Centrifugal Housed 27 182,984 6,6Centrifugal Unhoused 27 183,668 6,7Inline and Mixed Flow 27 182,966 6,7Radial 31 184,616 6,0PRV 30 185,113 6,2
41

Inputs to the Operating Cost Calculation

• Discount Rates• Sources:

– Damodaran Online, Data Page: Costs of Capital by Industry Sector and Data P

Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills‐United States, 2012. (accessed 2013)

– Ibbotson Associates, SBBI Valuation Edition 2009 Yearbook. 2009. Chicago, IL

– Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank Services Private Sector Adjustm

2005, 2005. Washington, D.C.

– Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15 Historical Data Selec

Rates, 2013. (accessed 2013)

Sector Mean Standard Deviation

Commercial 5.1 % 1.3 %

Industrial 5.2 % 1.2 %
42

Inputs to the Operating Cost Calculation

• Electricity Price and Electricity Price trend

• Repair, Maintenance and Installation costs:

– Repair and maintenance costs were assumed not to vary as a function of effi

Sector 2014 Growth

Rate

Commercial $0.10 0.30%Industrial $0.08 0.68%

Source: EEI 2014 typical bill data; U.S. Department of

Energy‐Energy Information Administration (April 2015),

Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Washington, DC;
43

Life‐Cycle Cost Inputs Summary

Input Description

Reselection Criteria

‐ Same Fan category

‐ Flow and Pressure within 20%

‐ Size (+1 inch) (100% users are space constrained)

Cost recovery ‐ Manufacturers recover 100% of the conversion costs 

Distribution Channels ‐ Three main channels

Default Motor and Transmissions

‐ Sized based on 1.2 * BHP fan

‐ Weighted average across poles an less efficient enclo

‐ Part load curve

‐ Transmissions losses based on AMCA 203

Operating point ‐ Same as the design point (single point)

Distribution by sector andapplications

‐ Based on motor plant assessment data and market rep

Operating Hours ‐ Based on motor plant assessment data and Energy Plus

Repair and Maintenance Costs ‐ Not expected to change with efficiency level

Equipment Lifetime ‐ Between 6 years and 60 years

Discount Rate

‐ Estimated using the CAPM model (equity capital) and D

(debt financing).

Electricity Prices and trends

‐ Edison Electric Institute (EEI) bill data

‐ Projections from the AEO 2014 (up to 2040)

Repair and Maintenance Costs Not expected to change with efficiency level, so not inclu
44

Life‐Cycle Cost Inputs Summary

Point of discussion:Should the analysis be considering different inputs and assumptions to the 
45

Life Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

• Average LCC and PBP Results for each Standards Case for Axial Housed Fans

Efficiency

Level

Average Costs

(2014$) Simple Payback

years

Average

Lifetime

years

Installed Cost

First Year’s

Operating Cost

Lifetime

Operating Cost

LCC

0 5,729 4,141 62,027 67,757 ‐‐ 28.9

1 5,873 4,096 61,372 67,245 3.2 28.9

2 5,910 4,082 61,181 67,091 3.1 28.9

3 5,933 4,056 60,782 66,715 2.4 28.9

4 5,979 4,037 60,516 66,495 2.4 28.9

5 6,038 3,983 59,703 65,741 1.9 28.9

6 6,273 3,681 55,271 61,544 1.2 28.9

Note: The results for each EL are calculated considering all customers. The PBP is measured relative to the base case

Efficiency

Level

Life‐Cycle Cost Savings

% of Customers that

Experience

Net Cost

Average Savings*

(2014$)

1 1.5 512

2 1.8 666

3 2.0 1,041

4 3.5 1,262

5 2.9 2,016

6 4.3 6,212

* The calculation includes customers with zero LCC savings (no impact)

• LCC Savings Relative to the Base Case Efficiency Distribution for Axial Housed Fan
46

Life Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

• Average LCC and PBP Results for each Standards Case for Axial Unhoused Panel Fa

Efficiency

Level

Average Costs

(2014$) Simple Payback

years

Average

Lifetime

years

Installed Cost

First Year’s

Operating Cost

Lifetime

Operating Cost

LCC

0 1,750 2,150 31,630 33,380 ‐‐ 28

1 1,754 2,143 31,517 33,271 0.5 282 1,755 2,139 31,460 33,215 0.4 283 1,755 2,131 31,353 33,108 0.3 284 1,757 2,115 31,107 32,864 0.2 285 1,758 2,098 30,874 32,632 0.2 286 1,764 2,048 30,136 31,899 0.1 28

Note: The results for each EL are calculated considering all customers. The PBP is measured relative to the base case

Efficiency

Level

Life‐Cycle Cost Savings

% of Customers that

Experience

Net Cost

Average Savings*

(2014$)

1 0.1 109

2 0.1 165

3 0.0 272

4 0.2 516

5 0.3 747

6 0.4 1,481

* The calculation includes customers with zero LCC savings (no impact)

• LCC Savings Relative to the Base Case Efficiency Distribution for Axial Unhoused P
47

Life Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

• Average LCC and PBP Results for each Standards Case for Centrifugal Housed Fans

Efficiency

Level

Average Costs

(2014$) Simple Payback

years

Average

Lifetime

years

Installed Cost

First Year’s

Operating Cost

Lifetime

Operating Cost

LCC

0 2,993 7,533 112,676 115,668 ‐‐ 27.3

1 3,034 7,478 111,887 114,921 0.8 27.32 3,056 7,450 111,449 114,505 0.8 27.33 3,072 7,421 111,017 114,089 0.7 27.34 3,104 7,369 110,240 113,343 0.7 27.35 3,159 7,314 109,426 112,585 0.8 27.36 3,442 6,951 104,023 107,465 0.8 27.3

Note: The results for each EL are calculated considering all customers. The PBP is measured relative to the base case

Efficiency

Level

Life‐Cycle Cost Savings

% of Customers that

Experience

Net Cost

Average Savings*

(2014$)

1 1.1 747

2 1.4 1,163

3 1.6 1,579

4 1.9 2,325

5 2.5 3,083

6 7.2 8,203

* The calculation includes customers with zero LCC savings (no impact)

• LCC Savings Relative to the Base Case Efficiency Distribution for Centrifugal Hous
48

Life Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

• Average LCC and PBP Results for each Standards Case for Centrifugal Unhoused Fa

Efficiency

Level

Average Costs

(2014$) Simple Payback

years

Average

Lifetime

years

Installed Cost

First Year’s

Operating Cost

Lifetime

Operating Cost

LCC

0 2,701 8,408 125,309 128,010 ‐‐ 27.4

1 2,710 8,404 125,262 127,972 2.2 27.42 2,716 8,401 125,218 127,934 2.1 27.43 2,718 8,395 125,139 127,857 1.4 27.44 2,723 8,384 124,956 127,680 0.9 27.45 2,736 8,382 124,909 127,645 1.3 27.46 2,810 7,906 117,874 120,684 0.2 27.4

Note: The results for each EL are calculated considering all customers. The PBP is measured relative to the base case

Efficiency

Level

Life‐Cycle Cost Savings

% of Customers that

Experience

Net Cost

Average Savings*

(2014$)

1 0.1 38

2 0.3 763 0.3 153

4 0.6 330

5 1.3 365

6 5.1 7,326

* The calculation includes customers with zero LCC savings (no impact)

• LCC Savings Relative to the Base Case Efficiency Distribution for Centrifugal Unho
49

Life Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

• Average LCC and PBP Results for each Standards Case for Inline and Mixed Flow F

Efficiency

Level

Average Costs

(2014$) Simple Payback

years

Average

Lifetime

years

Installed Cost

First Year’s

Operating Cost

Lifetime

Operating Cost

LCC

0 3,176 2,950 43,858 47,034 ‐‐ 27.2

1 3,387 2,823 41,975 45,362 1.7 27.22 3,433 2,774 41,252 44,685 1.5 27.23 3,497 2,717 40,411 43,908 1.4 27.24 3,579 2,659 39,557 43,136 1.4 27.25 3,733 2,594 38,572 42,304 1.6 27.26 4,364 2,368 35,214 39,579 2.0 27.2

Note: The results for each EL are calculated considering all customers. The PBP is measured relative to the base case

Efficiency

Level

Life‐Cycle Cost Savings

% of Customers that

Experience

Net Cost

Average Savings*

(2014$)

1 1.7 1,672

2 2.8 2,349

3 4.1 3,126

4 4.6 3,898

5 5.3 4,730

6 6.9 7,455

* The calculation includes customers with zero LCC savings (no impact)

• LCC Savings Relative to the Base Case Efficiency Distribution for Inline and Mixed 
50

Life Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

• Average LCC and PBP Results for each Standards Case for Radial Fans

Efficiency

Level

Average Costs

(2014$) Simple Payback

years

Average

Lifetime

years

Installed Cost

First Year’s

Operating Cost

Lifetime

Operating Cost

LCC

0 1,872 4,921 76,488 78,359 ‐‐ 30.7

1 1,937 4,858 75,534 77,470 1.0 30.72 1,955 4,822 74,966 76,921 0.8 30.73 2,012 4,773 74,197 76,209 0.9 30.74 2,073 4,702 73,107 75,180 0.9 30.75 2,169 4,577 71,218 73,387 0.9 30.76 2,605 4,163 64,768 67,373 1.0 30.7

Note: The results for each EL are calculated considering all customers. The PBP is measured relative to the base case

Efficiency

Level

Life‐Cycle Cost Savings

% of Customers that

Experience

Net Cost

Average Savings*

(2014$)

1 0.9 889

2 1.6 1,438

3 3.4 2,150

4 3.8 3,179

5 4.9 4,972

6 8.4 10,987

* The calculation includes customers with zero LCC savings (no impact)

• LCC Savings Relative to the Base Case Efficiency Distribution for Radial Fans
51

Life Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

• Average LCC and PBP Results for each Standards Case for Power Roof Ventilator F

Efficiency

Level

Average Costs

(2014$) Simple Payback

years

Average

Lifetime

years

Installed Cost

First Year’s

Operating Cost

Lifetime

Operating Cost

LCC

0 2,984 1,746 25,758 28,741 ‐‐ 29.7

1 3,059 1,699 25,069 28,129 1.6 29.72 3,072 1,681 24,804 27,876 1.4 29.73 3,100 1,662 24,515 27,615 1.4 29.74 3,156 1,629 24,032 27,188 1.5 29.75 3,195 1,596 23,544 26,739 1.4 29.76 3,360 1,448 21,358 24,718 1.3 29.7

Note: The results for each EL are calculated considering all customers. The PBP is measured relative to the base case

Efficiency

Level

Life‐Cycle Cost Savings

% of Customers that

Experience

Net Cost

Average Savings*

(2014$)

1 0.9 613

2 0.9 866

3 1.4 1,126

4 1.8 1,553

5 2.6 2,002

6 3.9 4,023

* The calculation includes customers with zero LCC savings (no impact)

• LCC Savings Relative to the Base Case Efficiency Distribution for Power Roof Vent
52

Life Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

• Average LCC and PBP Results for each Standards Case for Ducted Fans

Efficiency

Level

Average Costs

(2014$) Simple Payback

years

Average

Lifetime

years

Installed Cost

First Year’s

Operating Cost

Lifetime

Operating Cost

LCC

0 3,276 5,765 86,789 90,065 ‐‐ 28.3

1 3,364 5,700 85,838 89,202 1.4 28.32 3,391 5,670 85,378 88,769 1.1 28.33 3,423 5,633 84,826 88,250 1.1 28.34 3,471 5,583 84,065 87,536 1.1 28.35 3,548 5,512 83,010 86,559 1.1 28.36 3,903 5,169 77,852 81,755 1.1 28.3

Note: The results for each EL are calculated considering all customers. The PBP is measured relative to the base case

Efficiency

Level

Life‐Cycle Cost Savings

% of Customers that

Experience

Net Cost

Average Savings*

(2014$)

1 1.2 863

2 1.7 1,296

3 2.4 1,815

4 2.9 2,529

5 3.4 3,506

6 6.9 8,310

* The calculation includes customers with zero LCC savings (no impact)

• LCC Savings Relative to the Base Case Efficiency Distribution for Ducted Fans
53

Life Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

• Average LCC and PBP Results for each Standards Case for Unducted Fans

Efficiency

Level

Average Costs

(2014$) Simple Payback

years

Average

Lifetime

years

Installed Cost

First Year’s

Operating Cost

Lifetime

Operating Cost

LCC

0 2,266 3,501 51,900 54,166 ‐‐ 28.3

1 2,288 3,485 51,665 53,953 1.4 28.32 2,293 3,478 51,561 53,854 1.2 28.33 2,300 3,468 51,417 53,717 1.0 28.34 2,316 3,449 51,129 53,445 1.0 28.35 2,329 3,432 50,878 53,206 0.9 28.36 2,388 3,260 48,335 50,723 0.5 28.3

Note: The results for each EL are calculated considering all customers. The PBP is measured relative to the base case

Efficiency

Level

Life‐Cycle Cost Savings

% of Customers that

Experience

Net Cost

Average Savings*

(2014$)

1 0.3 2132 0.3 3123 0.4 4494 0.7 7215 1.1 9606 2.3 3,443

* The calculation includes customers with zero LCC savings (no impact)

• LCC Savings Relative to the Base Case Efficiency Distribution for Unducted Fans
54

Shipments and National Impact Analysis

• Shipments by fan category (2012) (1‐200HP)

Fan Category Units Percent

Axial Housed 33,500 7%

Axial Unhoused Panel 148,000 32%

Centrifugal Housed 88,000 19%

Centrifugal Unhoused 65,000 14%

Inline and Mixed Flow 26,500 6%

Radial 36,000 8%

Power Roof Ventilator 67,500 15%

Total 464,500 100%

Source: Air Movement and Control Association (AMCA). "Confidential Fan Sales Database." July 2012; IHS Technology. Fans and Blowers - World - 2014. Tech. March 2014.
55

Shipments and National Impact Analysis

• Shipments Projections

– Projections based on the following indicators, depending on the market segm

• Industrial sector: Fixed investments in equipment and structures includi

percent compound annual growth rate)*

• Commercial sector, new buildings: AEO new commercial floor space inde

compound annual growth rate)*

• Commercial sector, existing buildings: Fixed investments in existing struc

fans (0.04 percent compound annual growth rate)*

– This resulted in a total aggregate compound annual growth rate of 1.56 perce

*Compound annual growth rate over 2013‐2048
56

Shipments and National Impact Analysis

• Shipments Projections (industry)

– Projections based on Fixed investments in equipment and structures includin

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Manufacturing Subject Series a

Manufacturers for Industrial and Commercial Fan and Blow

Annual Energy Outlook to 2014 Economic Growth Forecasts 

Key Indicators and Consumption; Bureau of Economic Analy

Investment in Structures by Type, and Private Fixed Investm

Databases (accessed 2014); RSMeans Facilities Construction 

5060708090

100110120130

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200

Shipments and Investment Index (2004=100)

Year

Shipments Index Investme

• Used historical sales data from the

US Census to establish a relationship

between fan shipments and fixed

investments in equipment and

structures including fans from the

US BEA

• Establish a relationship between

GDP and fixed investment in

equipment and structures

• Used the GDP projections from the

AEO Outlook to derive shipments

projections
57

Shipments and National Impact Analysis

• Shipments Projections (Commercial)

– Divided the market into fans going to existing building (20%) and new building

• New Buildings: Projections based on AEO new commercial floor space projections

• Existing buildings: Projections based on fixed investments in existing structures inc

to industrial sector projection)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Manufacturing Subject Series and Annual Survey of Manufacturers for Industrial and Commerc

Blower Manufacturing; EIA Annual Energy Outlook to 2014 Economic Growth Forecasts and Commercial Sector Key Indicato

Consumption; Bureau of Economic Analysis Private Fixed Investment in Structures by Type, and Private Fixed Investment in E

Type Databases (accessed 2014); RSMeans Facilities Construction Cost Data 2014;

Point of discussion:Should shipments be projected using a different method?
58

Shipments and National Impact Analysis

0

100200300400500600700800900

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 

Shipments in Units (1,000)

Shipments by Sector and Market Segment

Industrial Commerical (New Buildings) Commercial (Existing Buildings)
59

National Full Fuel‐Cycle Energy Savings (quads)

Fan Category EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 

Axial Housed 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 

Axial Unhoused

Panel 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 

Centrifugal

Housed 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 

Centrifugal

Unhoused 0.02 0.04 0.1 0.1 0.1 

Inline and

Mixed Flow 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 

Radial 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.7 

Power Roof

Ventilator 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 

Total 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.6 6.3 

*may not add up to Total due to rounding

National Impact Analysis

• National Full Fuel‐Cycle Energy Savings by Fan Category (quads)
60

National Impact Analysis

Fan Category Discount Rate (%) EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 

Axial Housed

3 0.56 0.73 1.10 1.34 2.07 0.18 0.24 0.37 0.45 0.7

Axial UnhousedPanel

3 0.43 0.66 1.09 2.02 3.07 0.15 0.24 0.39 0.73 1.0

CentrifugalHoused

3 1.81 2.76 3.74 5.54 7.37 0.64 0.98 1.33 1.98 2.6

CentrifugalUnhoused

3 0.09 0.16 0.28 0.54 0.54 7 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.19 0.1

Inline and MixedFlow

3 1.29 1.81 2.41 3.01 3.64 7 0.45 0.63 0.84 1.05 1.2

Radial

3 1.36 2.14 3.20 4.73 7.47 0.46 0.74 1.09 1.62 2.5

Power RoofVentilator

3 1.37 1.91 2.49 3.45 4.47 0.46 0.65 0.84 1.16 1.5

Total

3 6.9 10.2 14.3 20.6 28.7 2.4 3.5 5.0 7.2 9.9 

*may not add up to Total due to rounding

• NPV of Consumer Benefits by Fan Category (billion 2014$)*
61

National Full Fuel‐Cycle Energy Savings (quads)

Fan Family EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 

Ducted 1.1 1.7 2.3 3.2 4.5 

Unducted 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 

Total 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.6 6.3 

National Impact Analysis

• National Full Fuel‐Cycle Energy Savings by Fan Family (quads)*

Fan Family Discount Rate (%) EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 

Ducted 3 5.0 7.5 10.4 14.6 20

7 1.7 2.6 3.6 5.1 7.

Unducted 3 1.9 2.7 3.9 6.0 8.

7 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.

Total

3 6.9 10.2 14.3 20.6 287 2.4 3.5 5.0 7.2 9.

*may not add up to Total due to rounding

• NPV of Consumer Benefits by Fan Family (billion 2014$)*
62

Topics

1. May 1st NODA results

2. Revised Results for Unducted Fans
63

Revised Results for Unducted fans

• At the request of the WG, DOE analyzed the fan categories that 

“unducted fans” using a metric based on static efficiency as a f

flow and static pressure.

• The following efficiency levels were analyzed:

Static

Efficiency

Target

Percent Non‐

Compliant

(Unducted fans)

EL0 0.50 0 %

EL1 0.54 10%

EL2 0.58 14%

EL3 0.62 19%

EL4 0.66 25%EL5 0.70 32%

EL6 0.82 61%

Total Efficiency

Target (NODA)

Percent Non‐

Compliant

(Unducted fans)

Pe

C

(D

0.54 0 % 

0.58 2% 0.62 4% 0.66 6% 0.70 9% 0.74 14% 0.86 35% 
64

Conversion Cost Results, Revised

Equipment Class Total Conversion Cost

EL 0 EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 

Axial Housed $0 $32,871,798 $41,217,988 $47,938,597 $57,084,416 $70,533

Axial Unhoused

Panel $0 $9,475,894 $13,849,383 $21,624,475 $28,184,709 $42,763Centrifugal Housed $0 $20,734,126 $31,178,328 $37,265,951 $53,914,759 $81,961

CentrifugalUnhoused $0 $13,426,886 $18,680,885 $19,848,440 $26,853,772 $32,691Inline and Mixed

Flow $0 $40,280,658 $47,285,990 $57,484,929 $70,008,412 $95,245

Radial $0 $18,792,235 $24,077,551 $40,520,756 $58,138,476 $85,152Power Roof/WallVentilators $0 $83,081,908 $98,474,764 $121,875,902 $175,946,453 $228,169
65

Manufacturer Impact Analysis: Results (Table, R

• INPV Results for the Conversion Cost Pass Through Markup Scenario (U* Numbers in parentheses represent negative values.• INPV Results for the Flat Markup Scenario (Lower Bound)

EL 0 EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 

INPV (2014$ MM) 719.1 657.3 642.2 622.3 584.3 5Change in INPV(2014$ MM)

‐ (61.9) (77.0) (96.9) (134.9) (1

Change in INPV (%) ‐ (8.6) (10.7) (13.5) (18.8) (2

EL 0 EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 

INPV (2014$ MM) 719.1 575.6 539.5 492.8 408.6 2Change in INPV(2014$ MM)

‐ (143.6) (179.6) (226.3) (310.5) (4

Change in INPV (%) ‐ (20.0) (25.0) (31.5) (43.2) (5
66

Manufacturer Impact Analysis: Results (Graph, 

• Potential INPV impacts of standards on commercial and industrial fan m

‐140%‐120%‐100%

‐80%‐60%‐40%‐20%

0%

20%

EL 0 EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 

% Change in NPV

Conversion Cost Pass Through Markup Flat Mark
67

Life Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis (re

• Average LCC and PBP Results for each Standards Case for Axial Unhoused Panel Fa

Efficiency

Level

Average Costs

(2014$) Simple Payback

years

Average

Lifetime

years

Installed Cost

First Year’s

Operating Cost

Lifetime

Operating Cost

LCC

0 1,750 2,137 31,685 33,435  ‐‐ 28.4

1 1,760 2,060 30,563 32,323 0.12 28.4

2 1,764 2,033 30,171 31,935 0.13 28.43 1,772 2,000 29,686 31,458 0.16 28.44 1,778 1,959 29,083 30,861 0.16 28.45 1,792 1,915 28,426 30,219 0.19 28.46 1,824 1,743 25,872 27,695 0.19 28.4

Note: The results for each EL are calculated considering all customers. The PBP is measured relative to the base case

Efficiency

Level

Life‐Cycle Cost Savings

% of Customers that

Experience

Net Cost

Average Savings*

(2014$)

1 0.1 1,112

2 0.6 1,501

3 0.5 1,978

4 0.5 2,574

5 1.2 3,217

6 0.5 5,740

* The calculation includes customers with zero LCC savings (no impact)

• LCC Savings Relative to the Base Case Efficiency Distribution for Axial Unhoused P
68

Life Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis (re

• Average LCC and PBP Results for each Standards Case for Centrifugal Unhoused Fa

Efficiency

Level

Average Costs

(2014$) Simple Payback

years

Average

Lifetime

years

Installed Cost

First Year’s

Operating Cost

Lifetime

Operating Cost

LCC

0 2,701 8,337 123,461 126,162  ‐‐ 27.5

1 2,729 8,317 123,159 125,889 1.4 27.52 2,741 8,319 123,177 125,918 2.2 27.53 2,743 8,308 123,002 125,745 1.5 27.54 2,758 8,288 122,725 125,483 1.2 27.55 2,771 8,280 122,614 125,385 1.2 27.56 2,826 7,798 115,500 118,326 0.2 27.5

Note: The results for each EL are calculated considering all customers. The PBP is measured relative to the base case

Efficiency

Level

Life‐Cycle Cost Savings

% of Customers that

Experience

Net Cost

Average Savings*

(2014$)

1 0.2 273

2 0.7 244

3 1.0 417

4 1.6 679

5 3.0 777

6 7.7 7,836

* The calculation includes customers with zero LCC savings (no impact)

• LCC Savings Relative to the Base Case Efficiency Distribution for Centrifugal Unho
69

Life Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis (re

• Average LCC and PBP Results for each Standards Case for Power Roof Ventilator F

Efficiency

Level

Average Costs

(2014$) Simple Payback

years

Average

Lifetime

years

Installed Cost

First Year’s

Operating Cost

Lifetime

Operating Cost

LCC

0 2,988 1,739 25,566 28,553  ‐‐ 29.6

1 3,150 1,594 23,446 26,596 1.1 29.6

2 3,181 1,545 22,718 25,899 1.0 29.6

3 3,226 1,504 22,102 25,328 1.0 29.6

4 3,330 1,457 21,413 24,742 1.2 29.6

5 3,430 1,411 20,744 24,175 1.4 29.6

6 3,726 1,258 18,496 22,222 1.5 29.6

Note: The results for each EL are calculated considering all customers. The PBP is measured relative to the base case

Efficiency

Level

Life‐Cycle Cost Savings

% of Customers that

Experience

Net Cost

Average Savings*

(2014$)

1 0.8 1,957

2 1.2 2,655

3 1.3 3,226

4 1.9 3,811

5 2.2 4,379

6 3.2 6,332

* The calculation includes customers with zero LCC savings (no impact)

• LCC Savings Relative to the Base Case Efficiency Distribution for Power Roof Vent
70

National Full Fuel‐Cycle Energy Savings (quads)

Fan Category EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 EL 6

Axial Unhoused Panel 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.7 4.9

Centrifugal Unhoused 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.8

Power Roof Ventilator 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 3.3

Total 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.4 5.2 10.9

*May not sum to Total due to rounding

National Impact Analysis (revised)

• National Full Fuel‐Cycle Energy Savings by Fan Category (quads)
71

National Impact Analysis (revised)

Fan Category Discount Rate (%) EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 

Axial UnhousedPanel

3 4.5 6.1 8.0 10.4 12.7 1.6 2.2 2.9 3.7 4.6 

CentrifugalUnhoused

3 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 

Power RoofVentilator

3 4.4 5.9 7.1 8.5 9.8 7 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.3 

Total

3 9.3 12.3 15.7 19.9 23.

7 3.3 4.3 5.5 7.0 8.4 

*May not sum to Total due to rounding

• NPV of Consumer Benefits by Fan Category (billion 2014$)*
72

National Full Fuel‐Cycle Energy Savings (quads)

Fan Family EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 

Ducted 1.1 1.7 2.3 3.2 4.5 

Unducted 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.4 5.2 

Total 3.1 4.4 5.7 7.7 9.8 

National Impact Analysis (revised – including d

• National Full Fuel‐Cycle Energy Savings by Fan Family (quads)*

Fan Family Discount Rate (%) EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 

Ducted

3 5.0 7.5 10.4 14.6 207 1.7 2.6 3.6 5.1 7.

Unducted

3 9.3 12.3 15.7 19.9 23

7 3.3 4.3 5.5 7.0 8.

Total

3 14.3 19.7 26.2 34.5 447 5.0 6.9 9.2 12.1 15

*may not add up to Total due to rounding

• NPV of Consumer Benefits by Fan Family (billion 2014$)*
73

Backup
74

Sensitivities: Qo and Po

• Different values of Flow and Pressure constants

Axial Housed

Q0=200 Q0=250 Q0=300

EL1

Keep 92.67% 92.9% 93.21%Redesign 0.9% 0.8% 0.69%Reselect 6.4% 6.2% 6.10%

EL2

Keep 90.9% 91.2% 91.65%Redesign 1.5% 1.2% 1.14%Reselect 7.6% 7.5% 7.22%

EL3

Keep 86.6% 87.2% 89.36%Redesign 1.8% 1.6% 1.51%Reselect 11.6% 11.3% 9.13%

EL4

Keep 83.6% 84.1% 84.65%Redesign 3.9% 3.7% 1.72%Reselect 12.6% 12.2% 13.63%

EL5

Keep 77.7% 78.1% 78.79%Redesign 4.3% 4.2% 4.07%Reselect 18.0% 17.7% 17.14%

EL6

Keep 50.4% 51.2% 51.94%Redesign 8.8% 8.5% 8.37%Reselect 40.8% 40.3% 39.69%

Axial Housed

P0=0.35 P0=0.

EL1

Keep 92.3% 9

Redesign 1.0% Reselect 6.7% 

EL2

Keep 90.5% 9

Redesign 1.5% Reselect 8.0% 

EL3

Keep 86.0% 8

Redesign 1.6% Reselect 12.4% 1

EL4

Keep 81.5% 8

Redesign 4.1% 

Reselect 14.4% 1

EL5

Keep 75.6% 7

Redesign 4.3% Reselect 20.1% 1

EL6

Keep 47.2% 5

Redesign 9.2% Reselect 43.6% 4
75

Sensitivities: Reselection

• Larger size selection window ([‐1;+2] nominal sizes)

% compliant Axial Housed Axial Unhoused Panel Centrifugal Housed Centrifugal Unhoused Inline & Mixed Flow Ra

EL1 NODA 2 92.9% 99.1% 92.3% 99.5% 79.3% 90

Scenario 92.9% 99.1% 92.3% 99.5% 79.3% 90

EL2 NODA 2 91.2% 98.5% 89.6% 99.0% 71.2% 86

Scenario 91.2% 98.5% 89.6% 99.0% 71.2% 86

EL3 NODA 2 87.2% 97.7% 86.3% 98.4% 60.6% 77

Scenario 87.2% 97.7% 86.3% 98.4% 60.6% 77

EL4 NODA 2 84.1% 96.0% 82.0% 96.6% 50.7% 70

Scenario 84.1% 96.0% 82.0% 96.6% 50.7% 70

EL5 NODA 2 78.1% 93.3% 75.5% 93.7% 40.9% 60

Scenario 78.1% 93.3% 75.5% 93.7% 40.9% 60

EL6 NODA 2 51.2% 85.2% 37.3% 56.6% 17.6% 28

Scenario 51.2% 85.2% 37.3% 56.6% 17.6% 28

% reselected Axial Housed Axial Unhoused Panel Centrifugal Housed Centrifugal Unhoused Inline & Mixed Flow Ra

EL1 NODA 2 5.5% 0.6% 6.4% 0.4% 18.6% 8

Scenario 6.2% 0.7% 7.4% 0.5% 19.9% 9

EL2 NODA 2 6.6% 1.1% 8.8% 0.7% 26.2% 13

Scenario 7.5% 1.2% 10.1% 1.0% 27.7% 13

EL3 NODA 2 10.2% 1.8% 11.7% 1.1% 35.0% 20

Scenario 11.3% 2.0% 13.2% 1.5% 38.0% 21

EL4 NODA 2 11.0% 3.2% 14.9% 2.9% 43.8% 27

Scenario 12.2% 3.5% 16.5% 3.3% 47.7% 29

EL5 NODA 2 15.2% 5.5% 20.5% 5.7% 51.1% 35

Scenario 17.7% 5.8% 22.8% 6.1% 56.2% 38

EL6 NODA 2 36.5% 12.4% 52.1% 32.3% 62.2% 47

Scenario 40.3% 13.0% 57.9% 40.6% 73.3% 59
76

Sensitivities: Default values selection

• Metric based on sizing motor using the maximum allowable fan shaft input power for FERST

Efficiency Distribution

Axial Housed

Axial

Unhoused

Panel

Centrifugal

Housed

Centrifugal

Unhoused

Inline &

Mixed Flow Radia

EL1 NODA 2 7.2% 0.9% 7.7% 0.5% 20.7% 9.6% 

Scenario 7.1% 0.9% 7.7% 0.5% 20.7% 9.6% 

EL2 NODA 2 1.6% 0.6% 2.7% 0.5% 8.2% 4.3% 

Scenario 1.7% 0.5% 2.7% 0.5% 8.1% 4.3% 

EL3 NODA 2 4.1% 0.8% 3.2% 0.5% 10.5% 8.3% 

Scenario 4.1% 0.8% 3.3% 0.5% 10.6% 8.3% 

EL4 NODA 2 3.0% 1.7% 4.3% 1.9% 9.9% 7.8% 

Scenario 3.1% 1.7% 4.3% 1.9% 9.9% 7.9% 

EL5 NODA 2 5.9% 2.7% 6.6% 3.0% 9.7% 10.0% 

Scenario 5.9% 2.7% 6.5% 2.9% 9.7% 10.0% 

EL6 NODA 2 27.1% 8.1% 38.2% 37.2% 23.4% 31.3% 

Scenario 27.0% 8.1% 38.2% 37.1% 23.4% 31.4%