31st Annual Morris Hansen Lecture

Washington Statistical Society

Model Selection and Its Important Roles in Surveys

Speaker: Dr. Jiming Jiang

Department of Statistics

University of California, Davis

Tuesday, November 14, 2023

3:30 – 5:30 pm

Jefferson Auditorium

USDA South Building

1400 Independence Ave. (between 12th and 14th Streets)

Smithsonian Metro Station (Blue, Orange and Silver Lines)
Jiming Jiang is a Professor and the Chair of the Department of Statistics at 

the University of California, Davis. His research interests include mixed effects 

models, model selection, small area estimation, longitudinal data analysis, 

precision medicine, Big Data intelligence, privacy-protection, statistical 

genetics/bioinformatics, age-standardized cancer rates, and asymptotic 

theory.

He has authored/coauthored over 100 research papers, many published in top 

statistics and data science journals, including The Annals of Statistics, Journal 

of the American Statistical Association, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 

Series B, and Biometrika. He is the author/co-author of five books and 

monographs: Linear and Generalized Linear Mixed Models and Their 

Applications (Springer 2007; 2nd ed. 2021); Large Sample Techniques for 

Statistics (Springer 2010; 2nd ed. 2022); The Fence Methods (World Scientific 

2015; joint with Nguyen); Asymptotic Analysis of Mixed Effects Models: 

Theory, Application, and Open Problems (Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2017), and 

Robust Mixed Model Analysis (World Scientific 2019). He has served on editorial boards of several major 

statistical journals including The Annals of Statistics and Journal of the American Statistical Association.

Dr. Jiang is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), a Fellow of the 

American Statistical Association (ASA), a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS), and an 

Elected Member of the International Statistical Institute (ISI). He is co-recipient of the Outstanding Statistical 

Application Award (ASA, 1998), the first co-recipient of Distinguished Alumni Award (National Institute of 

Statistical Sciences, 2015), a Yangtze River Scholar (Chaired Professor, 2017-2020), as well as recipient of 

numerous awards from the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health of the United States 

of America.

Abstract

The practice of statistics often engages challenges of conflicting interests. A classic example is the type I and 

type II errors in hypothesis testing. In the context of surveys, an important issue that one often must deal with 

is trying to obtain accurate information from the surveys and, at the same time, keep the cost within the budget. 

In modern data science, one often faces the dilemma between privacy protection and providing useful 

information. Such a challenge is set straight in the basic principle of model selection, that is, striking a (good) 

balance between model fitting and model complexity. Furthermore, criteria in model selection need to 

incorporate considerations of practical interest. We discuss the important roles of model selection in surveys. 

Next, we introduce a flexible class of model selection strategies, known as the fence methods. Features of the 

fence methods include a data-driven procedure for choosing a cut-off or tuning parameter, known as the 

adaptive fence, and the ability to incorporate practical considerations in the model selection criterion. Some 

examples in small area estimation are used to illustrate the methods.
Program

Jefferson Auditorium

South Building

United States Department of Agriculture

Tuesday, November 14, 2023.

Opening Remarks

Dr. Linda J. Young

Research & Development Division, USDA NASS

Program Chair

Jenny Thompson

Associate Directorate for Economic Programs, U.S. Census Bureau

Keynote Speaker

Dr. Jiming Jiang

Department of Statistics

University of California, Davis

Discussants

Dr. Jane Meza

University of Nebraska Medical Center

Dr. Andreea Erciulescu

Westat

Hansen Lecture Committee

Jenny Thompson (Chair)

Partha Lahiri (Past Chair) 

Carolina Franco (2024 Chair)

William Bell (2025 Chair)

Jeri Mulrow (Westat Representative)

Linda Young (NASS Representative)

Reception

Patio - Department of Agriculture

Jamie L. Whitten Building

(Across Independence Avenue, 5:30 - 6:30 p.m.) 
Morris Hansen Memorial Lecture Series

Morris Howard Hansen has been described as the most influential 

statistician in the development of survey methodology in the twentieth 

century. Early in his Census Bureau career he put together a staff to 

define the principal problems in the conduct of surveys, investigate 

these problems, and develop statistical methods to address them. 

Morris and his staff then widely distributed the results of their efforts, 

thus influencing statistical agencies all over the world. Generations of 

statistical students have learned from and been influenced by Sample 

Survey Methods and Theory, Volumes I and II by Hansen, Hurwitz, and 

Madow, which are commonly referred to by the authors’ names instead 

of the title, and Hansen’s other publications.

Morris was also known as an innovator and a leader in adapting electronic tools, such as computers 

and mark-reading sensors, to statistics. After his outstanding Census Bureau career, Morris joined 

Westat, which was at the time a fairly small statistical research company. Morris again assembled 

a strong staff and expanded Westat’s scope to take on large federal government statistical 

problems.

Morris also made outstanding contributions to professional organizations, serving as the president 

of both the American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and as the 

first president of the International Association of Survey Statisticians. He was elected to the 

National Academy of Sciences in 1976 and was an important member of many Academy 

committees and panels.

There have been many tributes to Morris since his death in 1990, such as memorial issues of both 

the Journal of Official Statistics and Survey Methodology. Westat issued a grant to the Washington 

Statistical Society to honor Morris with an annual lecture series. The series has been so successful 

in attracting top quality presentations on a wide variety of topics—in keeping with Morris’ broad 

interests—that Westat has added to the original grant.

 Sponsored by:

Washington Statistical Society