Hogs & Pigs Inventory

December 1, 2016

Executive Briefing

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview

December Hogs & Pigs

Data Collection Period November 30 – December 13

Sample Size 10,452

Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview

Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter;

Sows Farrowing; Pig Crop; and Pigs per Litter

December 23, 2016
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Previous 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

June 1, 2016 All Hogs 

& Pigs 68,381 +400.1%

+860

+1.3%

+900

+1.3% 69,281

Pig Crop 30,347 +750

+2.5% 31,097

September 1, 2016 All Hogs 

& Pigs 70,851 +435+0.6% 71,286

December 23, 2016
U.S. Hogs & Pigs December 1

Item 2015 2016 % PY

1,000 head

All Hogs & Pigs 68,919 71,500 104

Breeding Hogs 6,002 6,090 101

Market Hogs 62,917 65,410 104

less than 50 lbs 20,008 20,882 104

50 -119 lbs 17,262 18,037 104

120 -179 lbs 13,370 13,911 104

180 lbs & over 12,276 12,580 102

Sows Farrowed 2,929 3,043 104

Pig Crop 30,848 32,333 105

number

Pigs per Litter 10.53 10.63 101

1,000 head

Dec - Feb Farrowings 2,840 2,968 101

Mar - May Farrowings 2,850 2,997 101

December 23, 2016
71.5

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million head

December 1 September 1

68.9

71.3

U.S. Quarterly Hogs & Pigs

2007 - 2016

December 23, 2016
ID & WA

30

58

December 1, 2016 

Hogs & Pigs Inventory

(1,000) Head and Percent of Previous Year

December 23, 2016

Inventory Down Up No Change Combined
NASS Estimates Compared

to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Item

NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 103.7% 101.7% 100.7% – 102.9%

Breeding Hogs 101.5% 100.2% 99.8% – 100.6%

Market Hogs 104.0% 102.0% 100.8% – 102.5%

Sep – Nov Pig Crop 104.8% 101.5% 100.9% – 102.1%

Farrowing Intentions

Dec – Feb 101.4% 99.6% 97.0% – 100.4%

Mar – May 101.0% 100.5% 99.5% – 102.0%

December 23, 2016
59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million head

ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range

All Hogs & Pigs

First Estimate versus Final Estimate

2007 - 2016

December 23, 2016
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2007 - 2016

3.04

2.97

3.00

2.70

2.80

2.90

3.00

3.10

3.20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million head

Sep - Nov Estimate Dec - Feb Intentions Mar - May Intentions

December 23, 2016
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Sep 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Dec 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2007 6,208 976 1,001 6,233 51

2008 6,061 964 965 6,062 50

2009 5,875 941 917 5,850 50

2010 5,770 849 858 5,778 50

2011 5,806 880 877 5,803 50

2012 5,788 887 918 5,819 50

2013 5,816 826 767 5,757 48

2014 5,920 802 822 5,939 51

2015 5,986 772 789 6,002 49

2016 6,016 788 862 6,090 51

December 23, 2016
10.58

10.53

10.63

9.00

9.30

9.60

9.90

10.20

10.50

10.80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Pigs per Litter

Sep - Nov Jun - Aug

U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2007 - 2016

December 23, 2016
U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

September - November 2016

10.63

8.20

8.90

9.30

9.70

10.40

10.70

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000+

Pigs per Litter

Size of Operation

December 23, 2016
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs & Slaughter Hogs

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter

December 23, 2016
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs & Corn

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Corn $/bu

Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn

December 23, 2016
Upcoming NASS Reports

Release Date Report Title

December 29, 2016 Agricultural Prices

January 3, 2017 Cotton System

Fats & Oils

Grain Crushings

January 12, 2017 Crop Production

Crop Production Annual

Grain Stocks

January 24, 2017 Milk Production

January 27, 2017 Cattle on Feed

January 31, 2017 Cattle

December 23, 2016
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

December 23, 2016