Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

December 22, 2017

Executive Briefing

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview

December Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period November 30 – December 12

Sample Size 9,226

Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview

Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter;

Sows Farrowing; Pig Crop; and Pigs per Litter

December 22, 2017
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Previous 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

December 1, 2016 All Hogs 

and Pigs 71,500 +25+0.03%

+20

+0.03%

+45

+0.06% 71,545

March 1, 2017 All Hogs 

and Pigs 70,976 -305-0.4%

+30

+0.04%

-275

-0.4% 70,701

June 1, 2017 All Hogs 

and Pigs 71,650 -220-0.3%

-420

-0.6%

-640

-0.9% 71,010

Pig Crop 32,264 No revision -474

-1.5%

-474

-1.5% 31,790

September 1, 2017 All Hogs 

and Pigs 73,549 No revision -250-0.3%

-250

-0.3% 73,299

December 22, 2017
U.S. Hogs and Pigs December 1

Item 2016 2017 % PY

1,000 head

All Hogs and Pigs 71,545 73,230 102

Breeding Hogs 6,110 6,179 101

Market Hogs 65,435 67,051 102

less than 50 lbs 20,887 21,447 103

50-119 lbs 18,102 18,549 102

120-179 lbs 13,786 14,105 102

180 lbs & over 12,660 12,949 102

Sows Farrowed 3,046 3,109 102

Pig Crop 32,372 33,399 103

number

Pigs per Litter 10.63 10.74 101

1,000 head

Dec-Feb Farrowings 2,986 3,070 103

Mar-May Farrowings 3,014 3,083 102

December 22, 2017
U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

2008 - 2017

December 22, 2017

73.2

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million head

December 1 September 1

71.5

73.3
December 1, 2017 

Hogs and Pigs Inventory

Head (1,000) and Percent of Previous Year

December 22, 2017

Inventory Down Up No Change

ID & WA

51

170

Combined
Trade Expectations Compared

to NASS Estimates 

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items

NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs and Pigs 102.4% 102.0% 101.3% – 102.6%

Breeding Hogs 101.1% 100.8% 100.0% – 101.6%

Market Hogs 102.5% 102.1% 101.3% – 102.8%

Sep – Nov Pig Crop 103.2% 102.0% 101.5% – 103.0%

Farrowing Intentions

Dec – Feb 102.8% 101.1% 99.5% – 101.8%

Mar – May 102.3% 101.2% 100.0% – 102.1%

December 22, 2017
59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million head

ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range

All Hogs and Pigs

First Estimate Versus Final Estimate

2008 - 2017

December 22, 2017
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2008-2017

December 22, 2017

3.07

3.08

3.11

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million head

Sep-Nov Estimate Dec-Feb Intentions Mar-May Intentions
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition and Utilization

Year

Sep 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Dec1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2008 6,061 964 965 6,062 50

2009 5,875 941 917 5,850 50

2010 5,770 849 858 5,778 50

2011 5,806 880 877 5,803 50

2012 5,788 887 918 5,819 50

2013 5,816 826 767 5,757 48

2014 5,920 802 822 5,939 51

2015 5,986 772 789 6,002 49

2016 6,016 825 919 6,110 51

2017 6,117 839 901 6,179 51

December 22, 2017
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2008-2017

December 22, 2017

10.65 10.63

10.74

9.30

9.60

9.90

10.20

10.50

10.80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pigs per Litter

Sep-Nov Jun-Aug
U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

September - November 2017

7.90

8.60

9.20

9.60

10.50

10.80 10.74

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000+ All

Pigs per Litter

Size of Operation

December 22, 2017
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter

December 22, 2017
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs and Corn

December 22, 2017

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Corn $/bu

Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn
Upcoming NASS Reports

Release Date Report Title

December 28, 2017 Agricultural Prices

January 2, 2018 Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Grain Crushings

January 12, 2018 Crop Production

Crop Production Annual

Grain Stocks

January 23, 2018 Milk Production

January 26, 2018 Cattle on Feed

January 31, 2018 Cattle

Sheep and Goats

December 22, 2017
December 22, 2017

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

December 22, 2017