HOGS & PIGS INVENTORY

Executive Briefing

December 1, 2012 

December 28, 2012 

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
December Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period 

 November 30 - December 13

Sample Size

 10,390

Collection Methods

 Phone, mail, internet, and personal interview

Primary Data Items

• Total inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter 

• Sows farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

December 28, 2012 
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Revisions

December 28, 2012

Initial

Estimate

Previous 

Revision

Current

Revision

Net 

Revision

Current 

Estimate

Jun

2012

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

65.8 million -70,000

-0.1%

+900,000

+1.4%

+830,000

+1.3%

66.7 million

Pig 

Crop 29.4 million +636,000

+2.2%

+636,000

+2.2%

30.1 million

Sep

2012

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

67.5 million +230,000

+0.3%

67.7 million
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Inventory

December 1, 2012

Inventory Items (000) Hd % PY

All Hogs & Pigs 66,348 100%

Breeding Hogs 5,817 100%

Market Hogs 60,531 100%

Sep – Nov Pig Crop 29,443 100%

Sows Farrowing 2,900 99%

Litter Rate Number % PY

Sep – Nov 2012 10.15 101%

Farrowing Intentions (000) Hd % PY

Dec 2012 – Feb 2013 2,865 100%

Mar – May 2013 2,925 98%

December 28, 2012
5 6

5 8

6 0

6 2

6 4

6 6

6 8

7 0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Year

U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory

December 1, 2012

66.3 

December 28, 2012
NASS Estimates Compared to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 100.0% 99.1% 98.7% – 100.4%

Breeding Hogs 100.2% 99.3% 99.1% – 99.5%

Market Hogs 100.0% 99.1% 98.7% – 100.5%

Sept – Nov Pig Crop 100.3% 99.0% 98.3% – 100.8%

Farrowing Intentions

Dec 2011– Feb 2012 100.0% 98.4% 96.6% – 99.0%

Mar – May 2012 98.1% 98.8% 96.6% – 100.3%

December 28, 2012
December 28, 2012 58 

59 

60 

61 

62 

63 

64 

65 

66 

67 

68 

69 

70 

Jun 

0 6

Dec 

0 6

Jun 

0 7

Dec 

0 7

Jun 

0 8

Dec 

0 8

Jun 

0 9

Dec 

0 9

Jun 

1 0

Dec 

1 0

Jun 

11

Dec 

11

Jun 

1 2

Dec 

1 2 Million Head

All Hogs and Pigs

Board vs Trade Expectations

ASB Final Est Trade ASB First Est
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

S-N 

0 8

D-F 

0 9

M-M 

0 9

J-A 

0 9

S-N 

0 9

D-F 

1 0

M-M 

1 0

J-A 

1 0

S-N 

1 0

D-F 

11

M-M 

11

J-A 

11

S-N 

11

D-F 

1 2

M-M 

1 2

J-A 

1 2

S-N 

1 2

Feeder Pigs Slaughter

Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

December 28, 2012
2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed 

September - November

ASB Estimate Dec-Feb Intentions Mar-May Intentions

December 28, 2012

Million Head
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Sep 1

Estimate Slaughter Additions Dec 1Estimate

Sow

Utilization

(000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd Percent

2003 5,948 872 943 6,019 48%

2004 5,972 875 883 5,980 48%

2005 5,993 866 904 6,031 48%

2006 6,099 947 965 6,116 48%

2007 6,208 976 1,001 6,233 51%

2008 6,061 964 965 6,062 50%

2009 5,875 941 917 5,850 50%

2010 5,770 849 858 5,778 50%

2011 5,806 880 877 5,803 51%

2012 5,788 888 917 5,817 50%

December 28, 2012
8.70

8.90

9.10

9.30

9.50

9.70

9.90

10.10

10.30

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Year

U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter 

September - November

10.15

December 28, 2012
10.15

7.60

8.40

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.20

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1000-1999 2000-4999 5000+

Size of Operation

U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

September – November 2012

December 28, 2012
$1.75

$2.25

$2.75

$3.25

$3.75

$4.25

$4.75

$5.25

$5.75

$6.25

$6.75

$7.25

$7.75

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 11 1 2

Year

U.S. Prices Received by Farmers 

for Hogs & Corn 

Hogs Corn Hogs $/cwt

Corn $/bu

December 28, 2012
Upcoming Reports

December 31 Agricultural Prices

January 11 Grain Stocks,

 Crop Production

January 25 Cattle on Feed

February 1 Cattle,

Sheep and Goats

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

December 28, 2012
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions Call or Email

202-720-3570

800-727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

December 28, 2012

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service