HOGS & PIGS INVENTORY

Secretary’s Briefing

September 28, 2011 

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
September Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period: August 31- September 16

Sample Size 8,712

Collection Methods

Phone, mail, internet, personal interview

Main Data Items

Total Inventory, by class, weight group, and quarter

Sows Farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

September 28, 2011 
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Revisions

Quarter Item

(000) Hd % 

Revision

Change Estimate

March 1, 2011

All Hogs & Pigs -125 63,684 -0.2%

Pig Crop -117 27,869 -0.4%

June 1, 2011 All Hogs & Pigs-300 64,700 -0.5%

September 28, 2011 
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Inventory

September 1, 2011

Inventory Items (000) Hd % PY

All Hogs & Pigs 66,599 101%

Breeding Hogs 5,806 101%

Market Hogs 60,793 101%

Jun – Aug Pig Crop 29,084 101%

Sows Farrowing 2,901 99%

Litter Rate Number % PY

Jun – Aug 2011 10.03 102%

Farrowing Intentions (000) Hd % PY

Sep – Nov 2011 2,874 100%

Dec 2011 – Feb 2012 2,857 100%

September 28, 2011 
56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory

September 1, 2011

66.6

September 28, 2011 
NASS Estimates Compared to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 101.0% 100.5% 99.8% – 101.2%

Breeding Hogs 100.6% 100.1% 99.6% – 100.5%

Market Hogs 101.0% 100.5% 99.8% – 101.3%

Jun – Aug Pig Crop 100.7% 99.8% 99.0% – 101.2%

Farrowing Intentions

Sep – Nov 2011 99.8% 99.1% 98.5% – 100.1%

Dec 2011 – Feb 2012 100.4% 99.5% 98.5% – 100.7%

September 28, 2011 
All Hogs and Pigs 

Board vs Trade Expectations

5 8

5 9

6 0

6 1

6 2

6 3

6 4

6 5

6 6

6 7

6 8

6 9

7 0

Mar

05

Sep

05

Mar

06

Sep

06

Mar

07

Sep

07

Mar

08

Sep

08

 Mar

09

 Sep

09

 Mar

10

 Sep

10

 Mar

11

 Sep

11

ASB Final Est Trade Range ASB First Est

September 28, 2011 
Hog Slaughter Expectations

Based on Market Hog Inventories

Weight

Head

(000) % PY

Expected

Slaughter Period

180+ Pounds 10,876 103.4% Sep 1 – Oct 1 

120 – 179 Pounds 12,762 100.7% Oct 2 – Nov 5

50 – 119 Pounds 17,459 100.4% Nov 6 – Dec 31 

< 50 Pounds 19,696 100.4% Jan 1 – Feb 25 

September 28, 2011 
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

J-A

07

S-N

07

D-F

08

M-M

08

J-A

08

S-N

08

D-F

09

M-M

09

J-A

09

S-N

09

D-F

10

M-M

10

J-A

10

S-N

10

D-F

11

M-M

11

J-A

11

Feeder Pigs Slaughter

Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

September 28, 2011 
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed 

June - August

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

ASB Estimate Sep-Nov Intentions Dec-Feb Intentions

September 28, 2011

Million Head
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Jun 1

Estimate Slaughter Additions Sep 1Estimate

Sow

Utilization

(000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd Percent

2002 6,208 919 762 6,051 46%

2003 6,036 883 795 5,948 48%

2004 5,947 891 916 5,972 49%

2005 5,988 846 851 5,993 49%

2006 6,080 896 915 6,099 48%

2007 6,169 945 984 6,208 51%

2008 6,131 1,017 947 6,061 50%

2009 5,968 963 870 5,875 50%

2010 5,788 818 800 5,770 51%

2011 5,803 834 837 5,806 50%

September 28, 2011 
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter 

 June - August

8.60

8.80

9.00

9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

10.20

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

10.03

September 28, 2011 
10.03

7.50

8.30

8.90

9.30

9.90

10.10

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1000-1999 2000-4999 5000+

Size of Operation

U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

June – August 2011

September 28, 2011 
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers 

for Hogs & Corn 

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Year

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

Hogs Corn Hogs $/cwt

Corn $/bu

September 28, 2011 
Upcoming Reports

September 29 Agricultural Prices

September 30 Grain Stocks,

Small Grains Summary

October 12 Crop Production

October 21 Cattle on Feed

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 28, 2011