Hogs & Pigs Inventory

September 1, 2016

Executive Briefing

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview

September Hogs & Pigs

Data Collection Period August 31 – September 20

Sample Size 8,157

Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview

Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter

sows farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

September 30, 2016
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Previous 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

December 1, 2015 All Hogs 

and Pigs 68,299 +570+0.8%

+50

+0.1%

+620

+0.9% 68,919

March 1, 2016 All Hogs 

and Pigs 67,644 -170-0.3%

+650

+1.0%

+480

+0.7% 68,124

Pig Crop 29,582 +556

+1.9% 30,138

June 1, 2016 All Hogs 

and Pigs 68,381 +40+0.1% 68,421

September 30, 2016
U.S. Hogs & Pigs September 1

Items 2015 2016 % PY

1,000 head

All Hogs & Pigs 69,185 70,851 102

Breeding Hogs 5,986 6,016 101

Market Hogs 63,200 64,835 103

less than 50 lbs 20,741 21,090 102

50-119 lbs 18,496 18,851 102

120-179 lbs 12,855 13,325 104

180 lbs & over 11,108 11,568 104

Sows Farrowed 3,017 3,024 100

Pig Crop 31,343 31,983 102

number

Pigs per Litter 10.39 10.58 102

1,000 head

Sep-Nov Farrowings 2,929 2,928 100

Dec-Feb Farrowings 2,927 2,925 100

September 30, 2016
70.9

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million head

69.2

U.S. Quarterly Hogs & Pigs

2007 - 2016

September 30, 2016
September 1, 2016 

Hogs and Pigs Inventory

(000) Head and Percent of Previous Year

September 30, 2016
NASS Estimates Compared

to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items

NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 102.4% 101.1% 100.6% – 102.3%

Breeding Hogs 100.5% 100.6% 99.0% – 101.1%

Market Hogs 102.6% 101.1% 100.6% – 102.4%

Jun – Aug Pig Crop 102.0% 99.7% 99.0% – 101.3%

Farrowing Intentions

Sep – Nov 100.0% 99.6% 98.0% – 101.1%

Dec – Feb 99.9% 100.2% 98.0% – 101.3%

September 30, 2016
59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million head

ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range

All Hogs and Pigs

First Estimate versus Final Estimate

2007 - 2016

September 30, 2016
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2007-2016

3.02

2.93

2.93

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million head

Jun-Aug Estimate Sep-Nov Intentions Dec-Feb Intentions

September 30, 2016
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Jun 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Sep 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2007 6,169 945 984 6,208 51

2008 6,131 1,017 947 6,061 50

2009 5,968 963 870 5,875 50

2010 5,788 818 800 5,770 51

2011 5,803 848 851 5,806 50

2012 5,862 859 785 5,788 50

2013 5,884 796 728 5,816 49

2014 5,855 751 816 5,920 51

2015 5,926 798 858 5,986 51

2016 5,979 802 839 6,016 51

September 30, 2016
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2007-2016

10.48 10.39

10.58

9.0

9.3

9.6

9.9

10.2

10.5

10.8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Pigs per litter

September 30, 2016
U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

June-August 2016

10.58

8.20

8.90

9.30

9.70

10.30

10.60

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000+

Pigs per litter

Size of Operation

September 30, 2016
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter

September 30, 2016
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs & Corn

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Corn $/bu

Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn

September 30, 2016
New Table for Records 

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

September 30, 2016
Upcoming NASS Reports

Release Date Report Title

October 3 Cotton System

Fats & Oils

Grain Crushings

October 12 Crop Production

October 20 Milk Production

October 21 Cattle on Feed

October 27 Overview of the US Slaughter Industry

October 31 Agricultural Prices

September 30, 2016
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 30, 2016