Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

November 9, 2021
Data Sources

November 9, 2021

Operator Reported

Survey

Field Objective Yield

Survey Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through

(Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt September 28

Ag Yield Sample Size = 6,808 October 30 - November 4

Sample Size = 3,930 October 24 - November 1
November 2021 Ag Yield Survey

Sample Sizes

November 9, 2021
United States Corn Progress

Percent Harvested

November 9, 2021

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/12 9/19 9/27 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31 11/7 11/14 11/21 11/28 12/5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
November 2021 Corn

Acreage, Yield, and Production

November 9, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Iowa 12,900 ↓ 5.1 12,450 ↓ 3.5 201 ↑ 13.6 2,502,450 ↑ 9.6

Illinois 11,000 ↓ 2.7 10,800 ↓ 2.7 207 ↑ 8.4 2,235,600 ↑ 5.4

Nebraska 9,900 ↓ 2.9 9,600 ↓ 2.9 191 ↑ 6.1 1,833,600 ↑ 3.0

Minnesota 8,300 ↑ 3.8 7,800 ↑ 3.9 186 ↓ 2.6 1,450,800 ↑ 1.1

Indiana 5,400 N C 5,250 N C 189 ↑ 1.1 992,250 ↑ 1.1

0.3

↑ 2.9 ↑

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

N C

3.4 ↑ 3.3 ↑ 6.7

N C ↑ 0.3 ↑

Planted Harvested Yield Production

93,304 85,085 177.0 15,062,002

Top 5 States - By Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
131.5

100.7

138.6

113.5

127.1126.7

134.4133.8

136.9138.2

129.3

142.2

160.3

147.9149.1150.7

153.3

164.4

152.6

146.8

123.1

158.1

171.0

168.4

174.6

176.6176.4

167.5

171.4

177.0

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

November 2021 Corn Yield

United States

November 9, 2021

Bushels per Acre
November 2021 Corn Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

November 9, 2021
November 2021 Corn

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

November 9, 2021
November 2021 Corn Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

November 9, 2021

Percent

7 3

9 6

5 1

9 6

8 0

9 6

2 9

9 4

6 8

9 6

6 9

9 4

1 7

4 1

1 3

4 9

1

2 5 2 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mature Dent
November 2021 Corn Objective Yield

Ears per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region

November 9, 2021

Ears per Acre Bushels per Acre

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

27,000

27,500

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ears per Acre Yield
10.8

13.8 14.2

13.6

15.1

14.6 14.3

13.6

14.1

15.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

November 2021 Corn Production

United States

November 9, 2021

Billion Bushels
2021 U.S. Corn Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

November 9, 2021

14.7

14.8

14.9

15.0

15.1

15.2

15.3

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Soybean Progress

Percent Harvested

November 9, 2021

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/12 9/19 9/27 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31 11/7 11/14 11/21 11/28

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
November 2021 Soybeans

Acreage, Yield, and Production

November 9, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Illinois 10,600 ↑ 2.9 10,550 ↑ 2.9 64.0 ↑ 6.7 675,200 ↑ 9.8

Iowa 10,100 ↑ 6.9 10,020 ↑ 6.9 60.0 ↑ 11.1 601,200 ↑ 18.8

Minnesota 7,700 ↑ 3.4 7,630 ↑ 3.4 49.0 ↓ 2.0 373,870 ↑ 1.3

Nebraska 5,600 ↑ 7.7 5,550 ↑ 7.6 62.0 ↑ 6.9 344,100 ↑ 15.0

Indiana 5,700 ↓ 0.9 5,690 ↓ 0.7 57.0 ↓ 3.4 324,330 ↓ 4.1

↑ 0.4 ↑ 4.9

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 4.7

N C ↓ 0.6 ↓ 0.5

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

N C

Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 4.6

87,235 86,436 51.2 4,424,942

Planted Harvested Yield

Top 5 States - By Production
37.6

32.6

41.4

35.3

37.6

38.9 38.9

36.6

38.1

39.6

38.0

33.9

42.2

43.1 42.9

41.7

39.7

44.0 43.5

42.0

40.0

44.0

47.5 48.0

51.9

49.3

50.6

47.4

51.0 51.2

29

34

39

44

49

54

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

November 2021 Soybean Yield

United States

November 9, 2021

Bushels per Acre
November 2021 Soybean Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

November 9, 2021
November 2021 Soybeans

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

November 9, 2021
November 2021 Soybean Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

November 9, 2021

Percent

5 3

9 3

4 9

9 3

5 7

9 3

2 5

9 1

6 4

9 4

6 1

9 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mature
November 2021 Soybean Objective Yield

Pods per 18 Square Feet and Yield for 11 State Region

November 9, 2021

Pods per 18 Square Feet Bushels per Acre

35

40

45

50

55

60

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Pods per 18 Square Feet Yield
November 2021 Soybean Production

United States

November 9, 2021

Billion Bushels

3.04

3.36

3.93 3.93

4.30 4.41 4.43

3.55

4.22

4.42

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2021 U.S. Soybean Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

November 9, 2021

4.25

4.30

4.35

4.40

4.45

4.50

4.55

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Cotton Progress

Percent Harvested

November 9, 2021

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/5 9/12 9/19 9/27 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31 11/7 11/14 11/21 11/28 12/5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
November 2021 Cotton

Acreage, Yield, and Production

November 9, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

Texas 6,367 ↓ 6.9 5,266 ↑ 63.0 741.0 ↑ 8.2 8,132 ↑ 76.3

Georgia 1,170 ↓ 1.7 1,160 ↓ 1.7 952.0 ↑ 7.3 2,300 ↑ 5.5

Arkansas 475 ↓ 9.5 470 ↓ 9.6 1,226.0 ↑ 4.0 1,200 ↓ 6.0

Mississippi 445 ↓ 16.0 430 ↓ 18.1 1,150.0 ↑ 6.6 1,030 ↓ 12.7

Missouri 315 ↑ 6.8 310 ↑ 8.0 1,285.0 ↑ 12.3 830 ↑ 21.3

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

19.9 ↑ 3.9 ↑ 24.6

N C N C ↑ 1.0

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

11,191 9,922 880 18,198

↑ 1.1

↓ 7.5 ↑

Planted Harvested Yield Production

Top 5 States - By Production
700

606

708

537

705

673

625

607

632

705

665

730

855

831

814

879

813

776

812

790

892

822

838

766

867

905

882

831

847

880

480

530

580

630

680

730

780

830

880

930

980

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

November 2021 Cotton Yield

United States

November 9, 2021

Pounds per Acre
November 2021 Cotton Yield

Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Month

November 9, 2021
November 2021 Cotton Production

United States

November 9, 2021

Million Bales

17.3

12.9

16.3

12.9

17.2

20.9

18.4

19.9

14.6

18.2

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
November 2021 Sorghum

Acreage, Yield, and Production

November 9, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Kansas 3,600 ↑ 20.0 3,350 ↑ 19.6 81.0 ↓ 4.7 271,350 ↑ 14.0

Texas 2,150 ↑ 19.4 1,830 ↑ 22.0 67.0 ↑ 6.3 122,610 ↑ 29.7

Oklahoma 430 ↑ 41.0 355 ↑ 54.3 65.0 ↑ 44.4 23,075 ↑ 122.9

Nebraska 320 ↑ 64.1 265 ↑ 76.7 75.0 ↓ 17.6 19,875 ↑ 45.6

Colorado 500 ↑ 35.1 435 ↑ 70.6 40.0 ↑ 100.0 17,400 ↑ 241.2

↓ 1.2 ↑ 26.3

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 24.8

7,340 6,520 72.3 471,125

N C N C N C ↓ 0.1

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 28.0

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Production
72.6

59.9

72.7

55.6

67.3

69.2

67.3

69.7

60.9

59.9

50.6

52.7

69.6

68.5

56.1

73.2

65.1

69.4

71.9

54.0

49.6

59.6

67.6

76.0

77.9

71.7 72.1

73.0 73.2

72.3

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Sorghum Yield

United States

November 9, 2021

Bushels per Acre
November 2021 Sorghum Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

November 9, 2021
0.248

0.392

0.433

0.597

0.480

0.362 0.365

0.341

0.373

0.471

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Sorghum Production

United States

November 9, 2021

Billion Bushels
November 9, 2021

November 2021 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

Unit Unit

Peanuts Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 0.8 ↓ 0.8

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 5.0 ↓ 5.1 ↑ 6.8 ↑ 1.4

Potatoes Cwt Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 0.8 ↑ 0.8 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 3.5 ↑ 3.4 ↓ 5.0 ↓ 1.6

Rice Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↑ 1.7 ↑ 1.7

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 16.3 ↓ 16.3 ↑ 1.8 ↓ 14.8

Sugarbeets Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↑ 3.9 ↑ 3.8

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 0.1 ↑ 0.7 ↑ 9.5 ↑ 10.2

Sugarcane Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C ↓ 0.5 ↓ 0.6

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 1.6 ↓ 3.9 ↓ 5.5

N/A 932

1,580

Yield

(Units per Acre)

34,099

951 942

2,541 2,499

1,162 1,151

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

438

7,756

32.2

36.6

37,040

Production

(1,000 Units)

6,242,500

413,162

193,818

1,533 4,072
Selected Upcoming Reports

November 9, 2021

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

November 19 Cattle on Feed

Cotton Ginnings

Farm Labor

November 30 Agricultural Prices

Cotton System

Fats & Oils

Grain Crushings

Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

County Estimates - Barley, Oats, Wheat

December 9

December 1

November 24
#StatChat

November 9, 2021
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For Questions

(202) 720-2127

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