October Crop Production

Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

October 12, 2022
Special Note

October 12, 2022

Hurricane Ian made its landfall near Cayo Costa, Florida on Wednesday, September 

28. It made a second landfall near Georgetown, South Carolina on Friday, 

September 30. 

Survey work for the Florida citrus forecast was completed on schedule before 

Hurricane Ian made landfall. The Florida citrus forecasts in this report do not reflect 

any potential impact from the hurricane. The next citrus forecast will be in the 

December 9, 2022 Crop Production report.

Although survey work for other crops in this report extended beyond the initial 

landfall, the full impact of the storm may not be reflected until future reports.
Hurricane Ian Path

October 12, 2022
Data Sources

October 12, 2022

Operator Reported

Survey

Objective Yield

Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Tree Inventory

Florida Citrus

Limb Count

Florida Citrus

Size and Drop

Florida Citrus

Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through

(Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt September 21

FSA

Certified Acres

1,874 Groves

July 11 - September 16

September 1 - September 23

Field Surveys

Ag Yield Sample Size = 8,232 September 29 - October 5

Sample Size = 3,930 September 24 - October 1

Farm Service Agency policy requires that producers participating in several programs 

submit an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms.

192,585 Acres July 1, 2021 - June 30, 2022

2,943 Groves
October 2022 Ag Yield Survey

Sample Sizes

October 12, 2022
United States Corn Progress

Percent Harvested

October 12, 2022

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/4 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30 11/6 11/13 11/20 11/27

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
October 2022 Corn

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2022

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Iowa 12,900 N C 12,450 N C 200 ↓ 2.0 2,490,000 ↓ 2.0

Illinois 10,800 ↓ 1.8 10,550 ↓ 2.8 210 ↑ 4.0 2,215,500 ↑ 1.1

Nebraska 9,600 ↓ 3.0 9,300 ↓ 2.7 172 ↓ 11.3 1,599,600 ↓ 13.8

Minnesota 8,050 ↓ 4.2 7,550 ↓ 3.7 190 ↑ 7.3 1,434,500 ↑ 3.4

Indiana 5,200 ↓ 3.7 5,050 ↓ 4.2 187 ↓ 4.1 944,350 ↓ 8.1

Top 5 States - By Production

5.0

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

N C

5.2 ↓ 2.7 ↓ 7.8

N C ↓ 0.3 ↓ 0.3

Planted Harvested Yield Production

88,608 80,844 171.9 13,895,176

↓ ↓

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
100.7

138.6

113.5

127.1126.7

134.4133.8

136.9138.2

129.3

142.2

160.3

147.9149.1150.7

153.3

164.4

152.6

146.8

123.1

158.1

171.0

168.4

174.6

176.6176.4

167.5

171.4

176.7

171.9

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Corn Yield

United States

October 12, 2022

Bushels per Acre
October 2022 Corn Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

October 12, 2022
October 2022 Corn Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

October 12, 2022
October 2022 Corn

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

October 12, 2022
October 2022 Corn Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

October 12, 2022

Percent

5 1

9 6

8 0

9 6

2 9

9 4

6 8

9 6

6 9

9 4

5 0

0

4 1

1 3

4 9

1

2 5 2 2

3 8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Mature Dent
October 2022 Corn Objective Yield

Ears per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region

October 12, 2022

Ears per Acre Bushels per Acre

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

27,000

27,500

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Ears per Acre Yield
13.8 14.2

13.6

15.1

14.6 14.3

13.6

14.1

15.1

13.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Corn Production

United States

October 12, 2022

Billion Bushels
2022 U.S. Corn Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

October 12, 2022

13.7

13.8

13.9

14.0

14.1

14.2

14.3

14.4

14.5

14.6

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Soybean Progress

Percent Harvested

October 12, 2022

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30 11/6 11/13 11/20 11/27

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
October 2022 Soybeans

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2022

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Illinois 10,800 ↑ 1.9 10,700 ↑ 1.8 64.0 ↓ 1.5 684,800 ↑ 0.2

Iowa 10,100 N C 10,020 ↓ 0.1 58.0 ↓ 7.9 581,160 ↓ 8.0

Minnesota 7,450 ↓ 2.6 7,380 ↓ 2.6 50.0 ↑ 6.4 369,000 ↑ 3.6

Indiana 5,850 ↑ 3.5 5,830 ↑ 3.4 59.0 ↓ 1.7 343,970 ↑ 1.6

Ohio 5,100 ↑ 4.1 5,080 ↑ 4.1 55.0 ↓ 3.5 279,400 ↑ 0.4

Top 5 States - By Production

N C

↓ 3.7 ↓ 3.4

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 0.3

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

49.8 4,312,949

N C ↓ 1.4 ↓ 1.5

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 0.4

87,455 86,631
32.6

41.4

35.3

37.6

38.9 38.9

36.6

38.1

39.6

38.0

33.9

42.2

43.1 42.9

41.7

39.7

44.0 43.5

42.0

40.0

44.0

47.5 48.0

51.9

49.3

50.6

47.4

51.0

51.7

49.8

29

34

39

44

49

54

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Soybean Yield

United States

October 12, 2022

Bushels per Acre
October 2022 Soybean Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

October 12, 2022
October 2022 Soybean Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

October 12, 2022
October 2022 Soybeans

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

October 12, 2022
October 2022 Soybean Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

October 12, 2022

Percent

4 9

9 3

5 7

9 3

2 5

9 1

6 4

9 4

6 1

9 2

4 2

0 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Mature
October 2022 Soybean Objective Yield

Pods per 18 Square Feet and Yield for 11 State Region

October 12, 2022

Pods per 18 Square Feet Bushels per Acre

35

40

45

50

55

60

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Pods per 18 Square Feet Yield
3.36

3.93 3.93

4.30 4.41 4.43

3.55

4.22

4.47

4.31

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Soybean Production

United States

October 12, 2022

Billion Bushels
2022 U.S. Soybean Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

October 12, 2022

4.25

4.30

4.35

4.40

4.45

4.50

4.55

4.60

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Cotton Progress

Percent Harvested

October 12, 2022

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30 11/6 11/13 11/20 11/27 12/4 12/11

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
October 2022 Cotton

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2022

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

Texas 7,933 ↑ 24.6 2,530 ↓ 54.5 654.0 ↓ 1.8 3,445 ↓ 55.4

Georgia 1,290 ↑ 10.3 1,280 ↑ 10.3 900.0 ↓ 1.5 2,400 ↑ 8.6

Arkansas 640 ↑ 33.3 630 ↑ 32.6 1,143.0 ↓ 8.4 1,500 ↑ 21.5

Mississippi 530 ↑ 19.1 525 ↑ 22.1 1,006.0 ↑ 0.9 1,100 ↑ 23.2

North Carolina 470 ↑ 25.3 455 ↑ 24.7 884.0 ↓ 13.1 838 ↑ 8.4

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

23.3 ↑ 2.8 ↓ 21.2

N C N C ↓ 0.1

↓

↓ 0.1

↑ 23.0

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

13,791 7,876 842 13,812

Planted Harvested Yield Production
606

708

537

705

673

625

607

632

705

665

730

855

831

814

879

813

776

812

790

892

822

838

766

867

905

882

831

853

819

842

480

530

580

630

680

730

780

830

880

930

980

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Cotton Yield

United States

October 12, 2022

Pounds per Acre
October 2022 Cotton Yield

Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Month

October 12, 2022
October 2022 Cotton Yield

Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Year

October 12, 2022
12.9

16.3

12.9

17.2

20.9

18.4

19.9

14.6

17.5

13.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Cotton Production

United States

October 12, 2022

Million Bales
2022 U.S. Cotton Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

October 12, 2022

12.0

12.2

12.4

12.6

12.8

13.0

13.2

13.4

13.6

13.8

14.0

14.2

14.4

14.6

14.8

15.0

August September October November December Final

Million Bales

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
October 2022 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2022

Unit Unit

Canola Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 13.0 ↑ 13.0 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.8 ↑ 3.4 ↑ 40.2 ↑ 45.0

Dry Edible Beans Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 2.6 ↓ 2.6 ↑ 5.9 ↑ 3.1

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 10.3 ↓ 9.6 ↑ 23.1 ↑ 11.3

Alfalfa Hay Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C ↓ 0.3 ↓ 0.6

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 1.4 ↓ 2.2 ↓ 0.9

Other Hay Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C ↓ 6.9 ↓ 6.5

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 1.6 ↓ 12.5 ↓ 10.9

Peanuts Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 1.3 ↓ 1.3

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 7.7 ↓ 8.4 ↓ 1.0 ↓ 9.3

1,459 1,411

2,212

Yield

(Units per Acre)

5,771,000

1,251 1,207

N/A 15,465

N/A 36,042

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

2,095

3.16

1.75

4,090

63,241

Production

(1,000 Units)

3,945,820

25,293

48,820

2,161 1,826
October 2022 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2022

Unit Unit

Rice Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↑ 0.2 ↑ 0.2

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.2 ↓ 12.5 ↓ 1.4 ↓ 13.7

Sorghum Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 3.0 ↓ 3.0

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.9 ↓ 15.6 ↓ 35.4 ↓ 45.4

Sugarbeets Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 0.7 ↓ 0.8

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 1.1 ↑ 3.7 ↓ 13.3 ↓ 10.0

Sugarcane Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 0.3 ↑ 0.5 ↑ 0.9

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 1.6 ↑ 5.7 ↑ 4.0

Sunflower Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 1.4 ↑ 1.9 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 31.0 ↑ 31.1 ↑ 16.5 ↑ 52.8

N/A 921 37.1 34,157

1,691 1,633 1,782 2,910,450

44.6 244,555

1,173 1,149 28.8 33,069

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)

2,223 2,177 7,599 165,441

6,365 5,480
October 2022 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2022

Unit Unit

Tobacco Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 2.4 ↑ 0.8 ↓ 1.7

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 6.1 ↓ 3.1 ↓ 9.0

N/A 206 2,116 434,965

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)
October 2022 Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts

Production

October 12, 2022

Unit

Pecans Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 13.8

Production

(1,000 Units)

290,500

266 264 254

269

305

241

256

304

255

291

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Million Pounds

Pecan Production

United States
October 2022 Citrus

Utilized Production

October 12, 2022

All Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 8.0

Non-Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.2

Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 16.8

Grapefruit

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.0

Lemons

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 6.6

Tangerines

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 13.8

Production

(1,000 Tons)

833

3,193

2,053

1,140

329

966

9.37 9.03 8.73

7.70

6.08

8.14 7.85

6.91

5.61 5.32

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million Tons

All Citrus Production

United States

6.77

6.35

6.09

5.09

3.88

5.43 5.25

4.39

3.47

3.19

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million Tons

All Orange Production

United States
Selected Upcoming Reports

October 12, 2022

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

Cattle on Feed

Cotton Ginnings

Rice Stocks

October 31 Agricultural Prices

Cotton System

Fats & Oils

Flour Milling

Grain Crushings

Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

October 21

November 1

November 9
USDA Data Users’ Meeting

October 12, 2022

USDA Fall Data Users’ Meeting

November 15, 2022

12:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. ET

Registration Information Coming Soon
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October 12, 2022
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