May Crop Production

Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

May 12, 2022
Data Sources

May 12, 2022

Operator Reported

Survey

Field

Survey

Objective Yield Sample Size = 257 April 23 - May 1

Ag Yield Sample Size = 9,343 April 29 - May 9

Operator Reported

Survey

Field

Survey

1

 Valencia Oranges, Grapefruit

2

 Grapefruit, Oranges, Tangelos, Late Tangerines

Utilization Florida Citrus Administrative Committee

Data Quantity of Fruit Packed or Processed

Row Count 2

Sample Size = 43,205 Rows April 27 - 28

Processor Survey 1

Sample Size = 5 April 25 - May 4

Winter Wheat and Hay Stocks

Florida Citrus
May 2022 Ag Yield Survey

Sample Sizes

May 12, 2022
United States Winter Wheat Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

May 12, 2022

25

35

45

55

65

75

10/24 10/31 11/7 11/14 11/21 11/28 4/3 4/1 0 4/1 7 4/2 4 5/1 5/8 5/1 5 5/2 2 5/2 9 6/5 6/1 2 6/1 9 6/2 6 7/3

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Percent
United States Winter Wheat Progress

Percent Headed

May 12, 2022

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

4/1 0 4/1 7 4/2 4 5/1 5/8 5/1 5 5/2 2 5/2 9 6/5 6/1 2 6/1 9 6/2 6

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
United States Drought Intensity for April 26, 2022

Compared with Winter Wheat Acres

May 12, 2022
May 2022 Winter Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

May 12, 2022

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Kansas 7,400 ↑ 1.4 6,950 ↓ 0.7 39.0 ↓ 25.0 271,050 ↓ 25.5

Washington 1,850 ↑ 5.7 1,800 ↑ 6.5 67.0 ↑ 59.5 120,600 ↑ 69.9

Montana 2,050 ↑ 5.1 1,900 ↑ 9.8 39.0 ↑ 25.8 74,100 ↑ 38.2

Idaho 790 ↑ 11.3 730 ↑ 14.1 91.0 ↑ 28.2 66,430 ↑ 46.2

Oklahoma 4,400 N C 2,400 ↓ 18.6 25.0 ↓ 35.9 60,000 ↓ 47.8

Top 5 States - By Production

↓ 4.6 ↓ 8.1

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 1.7

34,236 24,499 47.9 1,173,547

N C N/A N/A N/A

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↓ 3.8

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
Winter Wheat Acres

United States

May 12, 2022

43.2 42.4

39.7

36.1

32.7 32.5

31.5

30.5

33.6 34.2

32.7 32.3 32.3

30.2

25.3 24.7 24.6

23.0

25.5

24.5

20.0

24.0

28.0

32.0

36.0

40.0

44.0

48.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Planted Harvested

Million Acres
75.5

76.2

81.5

83.6

77.3

76.0

78.1

75.6 75.7

71.6

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Winter Wheat Harvested-to-Planted Ratio

United States

May 12, 2022

Percent
May 2022 Winter Wheat Harvested Acres

Thousand Acres and Percent Change from Previous Year

May 12, 2022
Winter Wheat Yield

United States

May 12, 2022 40.2 40.2

37.7

37.1

44.6

46.9

47.8

44.6

43.4

38.2

46.7

43.5

44.3

41.6 41.7

47.1

44.0

46.5 46.1

47.1 47.3

42.6 42.5

55.3

50.2

47.9

53.6

50.9

50.2

47.9

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

56.0

61.0

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Bushels per Acre
May 2022 Winter Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

May 12, 2022
Winter Wheat Production

United States

May 12, 2022

1.54

1.38 1.37

1.67

1.27

1.18

1.32

1.17

1.28

1.17

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Billion Bushels
May 2022 Winter Wheat Production

United States by Class

May 12, 2022

Unit

Hard Red Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 21.3

Soft Red Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.0

White Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 37.6

Production

(1,000 Units)

590,037

353,503

230,007

747 739

830

1,082

750

662

845

659

749

590

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Million Bushels

Hard Red Winter Wheat Production

United States

568

455

359 345

293 286

240

266

361 354

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Million Bushels

Soft Red Winter Wheat Production

United States

227

184 185

245

227 236 232

246

167

230

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Million Bushels

White Winter Wheat Production

United States
2022 U.S. Winter Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

May 12, 2022

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
May 2022 Hay

Stocks

May 12, 2022

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Tons)

Texas 1,600 ↑ 33.3

Nebraska 1,250 ↑ 25.0

Missouri 1,100 ↑ 10.0

South Dakota 1,090 ↓ 50.5

Kentucky 980 ↑ 3.2

May 1

Total

(1,000 Tons)

May 1

16,767

↓ 6.9

Top 5 States

Total

% ∆ PY

152

138

149

159 159 159 153

139 144 147

138

89.7

75.2

89.4 92.2 94.9 95.9

84.4

79.1

84.5 84.0 79.0

21.4

14.2 19.2

24.5 25.2 24.4

15.3 14.9

20.4 18.0 16.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22

Million Tons

Supply Dec 1 May 1

May 2022 Hay Stocks

United States
May 2022 Hay Stocks

Thousand Tons and Percent Change from Previous Year

May 12, 2022
May 2022 Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts

Production

May 12, 2022

Unit

Almonds (Shelled Basis) Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 3.9

Peaches (CA Only) Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.9

Production

(1,000 Units)

2,800,000

440

2.01

1.87 1.90

2.14

2.27 2.28

2.56

3.12

2.92

2.80

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Billion Pounds

Almond Production

United States

648

620 608

569 553

479 498 503 505

440

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Thousand Tons

Peach Production

California
May 12, 2022

May 2022 Citrus

Utilized Production

All Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 2.4

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.7

Non-Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate NC

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 6.1

Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 7.3

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 20.6

Grapefruit

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 2.0

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.2

Lemons

% Change from Previous Estimate NC

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 17.5

Tangerines

% Change from Previous Estimate NC

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 26.5

Production

(1,000 Tons)

878

3,876

2,550

1,326

389

980

11.07

9.37 9.03 8.73

7.70

6.08

8.14 7.85

6.85

6.12

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Million Tons

All Citrus Production

United States

8.27

6.77

6.35 6.09

5.09

3.88

5.43 5.25

4.39

3.88

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Million Tons

All Orange Production

United States
2021 All Cotton

Acreage, Yield, and Production

May 12, 2022

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

Texas 6,367 ↓ 6.9 5,566 ↑ 75.0 666.0 ↓ 4.3 7,726 ↑ 67.5

Georgia 1,170 ↓ 1.7 1,160 ↓ 1.7 914.0 ↑ 3.0 2,210 ↑ 1.4

Arkansas 480 ↓ 8.6 475 ↓ 8.7 1,248.0 ↑ 5.9 1,235 ↓ 3.3

Mississippi 445 ↓ 16.0 430 ↓ 18.1 997.0 ↓ 7.6 893 ↓ 24.3

Missouri 315 ↑ 6.8 310 ↑ 8.0 1,260.0 ↑ 10.1 814 ↑ 19.0

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

25.0 ↓ 4.0 ↑ 20.0

↓ <0.1 ↑ 3.0 ↓ 3.5

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

11,216 10,272 819 17,523

↓ 0.6

↓ 7.2 ↑

Planted Harvested Yield Production
Selected Upcoming Reports

May 12, 2022

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

May 20 Cattle on Feed

Farm Labor

Floriculture Crops

May 31 Agricultural Prices

Cotton System

Fats & Oils

Grain Crushings

June 10 Crop Production

June 29 Hogs and Pigs

Acreage

Grain Stocks

Rice Stocks

June 30

May 25

June 1
#StatChat

May 12, 2022
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-2127

(800) 727-9540

nass@usda.gov