HOGS & PIGS INVENTORY

Executive Briefing

March 1, 2015

March 27, 2015

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
March Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period:

• February 28 – March 18

Sample Size: 

• 8,114

Collection Methods:

• Mail, telephone, internet, face-to-face interview

Primary Data Items:

• Total inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter 

• Sows farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

March 27, 2015
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Revisions

Initial

Estimate

Previous 

Revision

Current

Revision

Net 

Revision

Current 

Estimate

Sep

2014

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

65.4 million -230,000

-0.4%

+848,000

+1.3%

+618,000

+0.9%

66.0 million

Pig 

Crop 29.5 million -5,000

-0.02%

+868,000

+2.94%

+863,000

+2.92%

30.4 million

Dec

2014

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

66.1 million +95,000

+0.1%

66.1 million

March 27, 2015
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Inventory

March 1, 2015

Inventory Items (000) Hd % PY

All Hogs & Pigs 65,934 107%

Breeding Hogs 5,982 102%

Market Hogs 59,953 108%

Dec – Feb Pig Crop 28,758 109%

Sows Farrowing 2,829 102%

Litter Rate Number % PY

Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 10.17 107%

Farrowing Intentions (000) Hd % PY

Mar – May 2015 2,870 102%

Jun – Aug 2015 2,927 98%

March 27, 2015
5 6

5 8

6 0

6 2

6 4

6 6

6 8

7 0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year

U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory

March 1, 2015

65.9 

March 27, 2015

61.5 
NASS Estimates Compared to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items

NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 107.2% 106.8% 105.0% – 108.5%

Breeding Hogs 102.2% 103.5% 102.4% – 104.6%

Market Hogs 107.7% 107.2% 105.0% – 109.0%

Dec – Feb Pig Crop 109.2% 109.2% 104.7% – 111.2%

Farrowing Intentions

Mar – May 2015 102.1% 103.1% 102.1% – 103.8%

Jun – Aug 2015 97.9% 102.7% 101.7% – 103.8%

March 27, 2015
5 9

6 1

6 3

6 5

6 7

6 9

7 1

Mar 

0 9

Sep 

0 9

Mar 

1 0

Sep 

1 0

Mar 

11

Sep 

11

Mar 

1 2

Sep 

1 2

Mar 

1 3

Sep 

1 3

Mar 

1 4

Sep 

1 4

Mar 

1 5 Million Head

All Hogs and Pigs

Board vs Trade Expectations

ASB Final Est Trade ASB First Est

March 27, 2015
2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed 

December - February

ASB Estimate Mar-May Intentions Jun-Aug Intentions Million Head

March 27, 2015

2.93

2.87

2.83
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Dec 1

Estimate Slaughter Additions

Mar 1

Estimate

Sow

Utilization

(000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd Percent

2006 6,031 830 844 6,045 47%

2007 6,116 913 946 6,149 47%

2008 6,233 953 920 6,200 49%

2009 6,062 877 807 5,992 49%

2010 5,850 846 756 5,760 49%

2011 5,778 792 802 5,788 49%

2012 5,803 823 840 5,820 48%

2013 5,819 805 819 5,834 48%

2014 5,757 779 873 5,851 48%

2015 5,939 791 834 5,982 48%

March 27, 2015
9.00

9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

10.20

10.40

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year

U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter 

December - February

10.17

March 27, 2015

9.53
10.17

7.90

8.60

9.00

9.40

10.00

10.20

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000+

Size of Operation

U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

December 2014 – February 2015

Pigs Per Litter

March 27, 2015
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

D-F 

11

M-M 

11

J-A 

11

S-N 

11

D-F 

1 2

M-M 

1 2

J-A 

1 2

S-N 

1 2

D-F 

1 3

M-M 

1 3

J-A 

1 3

S-N 

1 3

D-F 

1 4

M-M 

1 4

J-A 

1 4

S-N 

1 4

D-F 

1 5

Feeder Slaughter

Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

March 27, 2015
$1.75

$2.25

$2.75

$3.25

$3.75

$4.25

$4.75

$5.25

$5.75

$6.25

$6.75

$7.25

$7.75

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Year

U.S. Prices Received by Farmers 

for Hogs & Corn 

Hogs Corn Hogs $/cwt

Corn $/bu

March 27, 2015
Upcoming Reports

March 30 Agricultural Prices

March 31 Grain Stocks, Rice Stocks

Prospective Plantings

April 1 CAIR: Grain Crushings

April 9 Crop Production

April 21 Milk Production

April 24 Cattle on Feed

April 30 Poultry – Production and Value

Production, Disposition, & Income: 

Meat Animals, Milk

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

March 27, 2015
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions Call or Email

202-720-3570

800-727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

March 27, 2015