12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

October Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

October 12, 2016
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

Field Crops Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops

Corn Citrus Dry Beans

Soybeans Pecans Tobacco

Cotton Sugarbeets

Rice Sugarcane

Peanuts

Sorghum

Alfalfa Hay

Other Hay

Canola

Sunflowers

Contents
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

Tree 

Inventory

Limb Count

Objective

Surveys

(Size and 

Drop)

Fruit Maturity

Survey Type Field

Observations

Field

Observations

Field

Observations

Laboratory 

Tests

Crops Included All All All Oranges,

Grapefruit

Sample Size 256,000 Acres 3,337 Samples 1,801 Samples 425 Samples

Collection 

Period

July 1, 2015 –

June 30, 2016

July 8 –

September 23

September

6 - 27

September

28 - 30

Survey Overview

Florida Citrus
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

October 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Production

Oranges Mil Tons 5.23 NA -11.6

Grapefruit Thou Tons 756 NA -5.9

Lemons Thou Tons 912 NA +2.5

Tangerines & 

Mandarins Thou Tons 997 NA +6.6
12.7

13.7

9.80

13.0

12.2 12.4

11.5

12.9

9.30

9.02

7.63

10.1

9.10

8.24

8.91 8.98

8.27

6.77

6.35

5.91

5.23

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Million Tons

Orange Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-12-16
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

Ag Yield Objective Yield

Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement

Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Sample Size 11,622 4,952

Collection Period Sept 29 – Oct 5 Sept 24 – Oct 1

Survey Overview
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

October 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2016 Estimate Season 

Planted Area

Corn Mil Ac 94.5 +0.4 +7.4

Soybeans Mil Ac 83.7 +<0.1 +1.3

Sorghum Mil Ac 6.76 -6.4 -20.1

Sunflowers Mil Ac 1.60 -3.0 -14.1

Canola Mil Ac 1.71 +0.6 -3.5

Dry Edible Beans Mil Ac 1.66 -3.5 -6.1
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

October 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Corn

Harvested Mil Ac 86.8 +0.3 +7.5

Yield Bu/Ac 173.4 -0.6 +3.0

Production Bil Bu 15.1 -0.2 +10.7
9.23 9.21

9.76

9.43

9.92

9.50

8.97

10.1

11.8

11.1

10.5

13.0

12.0

13.1

12.4 12.3

10.8

13.8

14.2

13.6

15.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Billion Bushels

Corn for Grain Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-12-16
USDA-NASS

10-12-16
USDA-NASS

10-12-16
2004

2005 2006 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Aug-16

Sep-16 Oct-16

0.260

0.270

0.280

0.290

0.300

0.310

0.320

0.330

0.340

0.350

0.360

0.370

25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500

Lbs/Ear

Ears Per Acre

Corn Objective Yield Region

Ears Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight

Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears

USDA-NASS

10-12-16
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

Year Dent Stage Mature

Percent

2012 3 90

2013 NA NA

2014 39 53

2015 16 70

2016 17 73

Corn Objective Yield - October

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

October 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Soybeans

Harvested Mil Ac 83.0 +<0.1 +1.6

Yield Bu/Ac 51.4 +1.6 +7.1

Production Bil Bu 4.27 +1.6 +8.7
2.38

2.69 2.74

2.65

2.76

2.89

2.76

2.45

3.12 3.07

3.20

2.68

2.97

3.36 3.33

3.10 3.04

3.36

3.93 3.93

4.27

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Billion Bushels

Soybean Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-12-16
USDA-NASS

10-12-16
USDA-NASS

10-12-16
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 2014

2015

Sep-16

Oct -16

0.260

0.265

0.270

0.275

0.280

0.285

0.290

0.295

0.300

0.305

0.310

0.315

0.320

0.325

0.330

0.335

0.340

0.345

0.350

1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900

Grams/Pod

Pods Per 18 Square Feet

Soybean Objective Yield Region

Pods Per 18 Square Feet vs. Implied Pod Weight

Implied Pod Weight = (Published Yield / Pods) /0.0889

USDA-NASS

10-12-16
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

Year Mature

Percent

2012 64

2013 NA

2014 35

2015 54

2016 53

Soybean Objective Yield - October

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

October 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

All Cotton

Harvested Mil Ac 9.66 NC +19.6

Yield Lb/Ac 797 -0.6 +4.0

Production Mil Bls 16.0 -0.7 +24.4

Cottonseed

Production Mil Tons 5.11 -0.7 +26.4
18.9 18.8

13.9

17.0 17.2

20.3

17.2

18.3

23.3

23.9

21.6

19.2

12.8

12.2

18.1

15.6

17.3

12.9

16.3

12.9

16.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Million Bales

All Cotton Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-12-16
USDA-NASS

10-12-16
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

October 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Rice

Harvested Mil Ac 3.13 NC +21.7

Yield Lbs/Ac 7,532 -0.5 +0.8

Production Mil Cwt 236 -0.5 +22.7
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

October 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Peanuts

Harvested Mil Ac 1.59 NC +1.7

Yield Lbs/Ac 3,976 -1.7 +3.4

Production Bil Lbs 6.31 -1.7 +5.1
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

October 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Sorghum

Harvested Mil Ac 6.05 -6.4 -23.0

Yield Bu/Ac 77.2 +2.0 +1.6

Production Mil Bu 467 -4.5 -21.8
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

October 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Alfalfa Hay

Harvested Mil Ac 18.1 NC +1.6

Yield Tons/Ac 3.48 +2.4 +4.8

Production Mil Tons 62.8 +2.1 +6.5
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

October 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

All Other Hay

Harvested Mil Ac 38.1 NC +3.8

Yield Tons/Ac 2.07 NC +0.5

Production Mil Tons 78.8 -0.3 +4.4
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

October 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Production 

Sugarcane Mil Tons 33.8 -0.8 +4.6

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 36.3 +1.3 +2.6

All Tobacco Mil Lbs 664 -3.3 -7.2
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

October 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Production

Canola Bil Lbs 2.99 NA +3.9

Sunflowers Bil Lbs 2.46 NA -15.9
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

October 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Production

Dry Edible Beans Mil Cwt 27.8 -5.9 -7.8

Pecans Mil Lbs 263 NA +3.3
USDA-NASS

10-12-16

Release Date Title

October 18 Data Users Meeting

October 21 Cattle on Feed

October 24 Cotton Ginnings

October 28 Rice Stocks 

October 31 Agricultural Prices

November 1

CAIR: Cotton

CAIR: Fats & Oils

CAIR: Flour Milling

CAIR: Grain Crushings

November 8-9 Advisory Committee on Agriculture Statistics

November 9 Crop Production

Upcoming Events
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