Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

Executive Summary

Travis Averill, Chief

Livestock Branch

December 23, 2020
2020 December Hogs & Pigs Survey

Number of Samples

December 23, 2020
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

December 1, 2019 All Hogs and Pigs 77,338 -820 890 78,228

Pig Crop 35,101 -746 358 35,459

March 1, 2020 All Hogs and Pigs 77,629 -1,450 -1,450 76,179

Pig Crop 34,734 -989 -989 33,745

June 1, 2020 All Hogs and Pigs 79,634 -2,270 -2,270 77,364

Pig Crop 34,933 -289 -289 34,644

September 1, 2020 All Hogs and Pigs 79,099 -665 -665 78,434

Pig Crop 35,115 941 941 36,056

December 23, 2020
U.S. Hogs and Pigs December 1

2019 2020 % Change from 

(1,000 head) Previous Year

All Hogs and Pigs 78,228 77,502 ↓ 0.9

Breeding Hogs 6,471 6,276 ↓ 3.0

Market Hogs 71,757 71,226 ↓ 0.7

78.4

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

81

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Million head U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

December September

78.2

77.5

Top 5 States

Inventory

(1,000 head)

Iowa 24,800

Minnesota 9,400

North Carolina 9,000

Illinois 5,450

Indiana 4,450

December 23, 2020
December 1, 2020 Hogs and Pigs Inventory

(1,000) Head and Percent Change from Previous Year

December 23, 2020
U.S. Hogs and Pigs December 1

2019 2020 % Change from 

(1,000 head) Previous Year

Market Hogs 71,757 71,226 ↓ 0.7

Less than 50 lbs 22,048 21,739 ↓ 1.4

50 – 119 lbs 20,636 20,260 ↓ 1.8

120 – 179 lbs 15,256 15,246 ↓ 0.1

180 lbs or more 13,816 13,980 ↑ 1.2

11

14

17

20

23

26

Dec 2017 Mar 2018 Jun 2018 Sep 2018 Dec 2018 Mar 2019 Jun 2019 Sep 2019 Dec 2019 Mar 2020 Jun 2020 Sep 2020 Dec 2020

Million head Market Hogs by Weight Class

LT 50 LBS 50 TO 119 LBS 120 TO 179 LBS GE 180 LBS

December 23, 2020
U.S. Hogs and Pigs December 1

2019 2020 2021 % Change from 

(1,000 head) Previous Year

Sows Farrowed 3,197 3,164 ↓ 1.0

Intentions

Dec – Feb 3,068 3,118 ↑ 1.6

Mar – May 3,149 3,123 ↓ 0.8

3.16

3.12

3.12

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Million head U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

Sep-Nov Estimates Dec-Feb Intentions Mar-May Intentions

December 23, 2020
U.S. Hogs and Pigs December 1

2019 2020 % Change from

(1,000 head) Previous Year

Pig Crop 35,459 34,973 ↓ 1.4

(Number)

Pigs per Litter 11.09 11.05 ↓ 0.4

11.09 11.06

11.05

9.50

9.80

10.10

10.40

10.70

11.00

11.30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pigs per Litter U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

September-November June-August

December 23, 2020
Trade Expectations Compared to NASS 

Estimates Percent of Previous Year

December 23, 2020

98.6

98.2

96.6

99.0

98.2

99.0

99.2

101.6

98.6

99.3

97.0

99.1

95.0 97.0 99.0 101.0 103.0

Mar-May Farrowings

Dec-Feb Farrowings

Sep-Nov Pig Crop

Market Hogs

Breeding Hogs

All Hogs and Pigs

Min Trade Range Trade Average NASS
All Hogs and Pigs 

First Estimate vs Final Estimate

59

64

69

74

79

84

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Million head

Lower Trade Range Trade Range ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate

December 23, 2020
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition and Utilization

December 23, 2020

Year

Sep 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Dec 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2011 5,806 880 877 5,803 50

2012 5,788 887 918 5,819 50

2013 5,816 826 767 5,757 48

2014 5,920 802 822 5,939 50

2015 5,986 772 789 6,002 49

2016 6,016 825 919 6,110 51

2017 6,117 839 900 6,179 51

2018 6,330 859 855 6,326 51

2019 6,431 843 884 6,471 50

2020 6,333 880 823 6,276 50

Rows may not add due to rounding.
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

(1,000 head)

December 23, 2020

79% 83% 83% 83%

84% 85%

84% 85% 85% 84%

84% 84%

84%

85%

83%

83% 82%

83% 85%

84%

21% 17% 17% 17%

16% 15%

16% 15% 15% 16%

16% 16%

16%

15%

17%

17% 18%

17% 15%

16%

1,453 

1,401 

1,366 1,375 1,409 1,412 

1,327 1,326 1,326 1,320 

1,257 

1,222 

1,398 

1,262 

1,124 

1,267 1,299 

1,221 1,209 

1,352 

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Feeder Slaughter
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs and Corn

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Hogs $/cwt Corn $/bu

Hogs Corn

Hogs Corn

Month $/cwt $/bu

May 51.00 3.20

June 41.30 3.16

July 39.90 3.21

August 42.90 3.12

September 49.70 3.40

October 56.30 3.61

Hog to Corn

Month Ratio

May 15.94

June 13.07

July 12.43

August 13.75

September 14.62

October 15.60

December 23, 2020
Upcoming Reports

December 30 Agricultural Prices

January 4 Cotton Systems, Fats & Oils, Grain 

Crushing

January 6 Dairy Products

January 12

Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

Crop Production – Annual

Grain and Rice Stocks

January 22 Cattle on Feed

January 29 Cattle

Sheep and Goats

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December 23, 2020
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