May Crop Production

Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

May 12, 2021
Data Sources

May 12, 2021

Operator Reported

Survey

Field

Survey

Objective Yield Sample Size = 257 April 24 - May 1

Ag Yield Sample Size = 10,529 April 29 - May 7

Operator Reported

Survey

Field

Survey

1

 Valencia Oranges, Grapefruit

2

 Grapefruit, Oranges, Tangelos, Late Tangerines

Utilization Florida Citrus Administrative Committee

Data Quantity of Fruit Packed or Processed

Row Count 2

Sample Size = 43,167 Rows April 28 - April 29

Processor Survey1

Sample Size = 5 April 30 - May 4

Winter Wheat and Hay Stocks

Florida Citrus
May 2021 Ag Yield Survey

Sample Sizes

May 12, 2021
United States Winter Wheat Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

May 12, 2021

25

35

45

55

65

75

10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 4/4 4/1 1 4/1 8 4/2 5 5/2 5/9 5/1 6 5/2 3 5/3 0 6/6 6/1 3 6/2 0 6/2 7 7/4

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Percent
United States Winter Wheat Progress

Percent Headed

May 12, 2021

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

4/1 1 4/1 8 4/2 5 5/2 5/9 5/1 6 5/2 3 5/3 0 6/6 6/1 3 6/2 0 6/2 7

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
May 2021 Winter Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

May 12, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Kansas 7,300 ↑ 10.6 6,900 ↑ 10.4 48.0 ↑ 6.7 331,200 ↑ 17.8

Washington 1,750 ↓ 2.8 1,690 ↓ 3.4 64.0 ↓ 15.8 108,160 ↓ 18.7

Oklahoma 4,300 ↑ 1.2 2,700 ↑ 3.8 40.0 N C 108,000 ↑ 3.8

Montana 1,750 ↑ 12.9 1,650 ↑ 10.7 49.0 ↓ 3.9 80,850 ↑ 6.4

Idaho 730 ↑ 1.4 680 ↑ 3.0 95.0 ↓ 5.9 64,600 ↓ 3.1

Top 5 States - By Production

↑ 2.4 ↑ 9.6

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 8.8

33,078 24,612 52.1 1,282,925

N C N/A N/A N/A

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 6.9

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
Winter Wheat Acres

United States

May 12, 2021

40.9

43.2 42.4

39.7

36.1

32.7 32.5

31.5

30.4

33.1

34.6

32.7 32.3 32.3

30.2

25.3 24.7 24.6

23.0

24.6

20.0

24.0

28.0

32.0

36.0

40.0

44.0

48.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Planted Harvested

Million Acres
May 2021 Winter Wheat Harvested Acres

Thousand Acres and Percent Change from Previous Year

May 12, 2021
Winter Wheat Yield

United States

May 12, 2021 38.2

40.2 40.2

37.7

37.1

44.6

46.9

47.8

44.6

43.4

38.2

46.7

43.5

44.3

41.6 41.7

47.1

44.0

46.5 46.1

47.1 47.3

42.6 42.5

55.3

50.2

47.9

53.6

50.9

52.1

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

56.0

61.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Bushels per Acre
May 2021 Winter Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

May 12, 2021
Winter Wheat Production

United States

May 12, 2021

1.63

1.54

1.38 1.37

1.67

1.27

1.18

1.32

1.17

1.28

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Billion Bushels
May 2021 Winter Wheat Production

United States by Class

May 12, 2021

Unit

Hard Red Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 11.0

Soft Red Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 24.5

White Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 10.4

Production

(1,000 Units)

730,833

331,594

220,498

998

747 739

830

1,082

750

662

845

659

731

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million Bushels

Hard Red Winter Wheat Production

United States

413

568

455

359 345

293 286

240

266

332

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million Bushels

Soft Red Winter Wheat Production

United States

220 227

184 185

245

227 236 232

246

220

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million Bushels

White Winter Wheat Production

United States
2021 U.S. Winter Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

May 12, 2021

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
May 2021 Hay

Stocks

May 12, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Tons)

South Dakota 2,200 ↓ 6.4

Texas 1,200 ↓ 38.5

Oklahoma 1,150 ↓ 14.8

Missouri 1,000 ↓ 29.1

Nebraska 1,000 ↓ 27.5

May 1

Total

(1,000 Tons)

May 1

18,006

↓ 11.8

Top 5 States

Total

% ∆ PY

166

152

138

149

159 159 159 153

139 144 147

101.7

89.7

75.2

89.4 92.2 94.9 95.9

84.4

79.1

84.5 84.0

22.2 21.4

14.2 19.2

24.5 25.2 24.4

15.3 14.9

20.4 18.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

Million Tons

Supply Dec 1 May 1

May 2021 Hay Stocks

United States
May 2021 Hay Stocks

Thousand Tons and Percent Change from Previous Year

May 12, 2021
May 2021 Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts

Production

May 12, 2021

Unit

Almonds (Shelled Basis) Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.7

Peaches (CA Only) Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.6

Production

(1,000 Units)

3,200,000

480

1.89

2.01

1.87 1.90

2.14

2.27 2.28

2.56

3.12 3.20

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Billion Pounds

Almond Production

United States

713

648

620 608

569 553

479 498

468 480

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Thousand Tons

Peach Production

California
May 12, 2021

May 2021 Citrus

Utilized Production

All Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate NC

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 15.3

Non-Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate NC

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.9

Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate NC

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 20.2

Grapefruit

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.9

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 22.4

Lemons

% Change from Previous Estimate NC

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.2

Tangerines

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.2

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.0

Production

(1,000 Tons)

963

4,452

2,745

1,707

443

952

11.63

11.07

9.37 9.03 8.73

7.70

6.08

8.14 7.85

6.81

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million Tons

All Citrus Production

United States

8.98

8.27

6.77

6.35 6.09

5.09

3.88

5.43 5.25

4.45

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million Tons

All Orange Production

United States
2020 All Cotton

Acreage, Yield, and Production

May 12, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

Texas 6,838 ↓ 3.2 3,231 ↓ 37.4 685 ↑ 16.3 4,613 ↓ 27.2

Georgia 1,190 ↓ 15.0 1,180 ↓ 14.5 887 ↓ 6.9 2,180 ↓ 20.4

Arkansas 525 ↓ 15.3 520 ↓ 14.8 1,179 ↓ 0.5 1,277 ↓ 15.2

Mississippi 530 ↓ 25.4 525 ↓ 25.0 1,079 ↓ 3.0 1,180 ↓ 27.2

Alabama 450 ↓ 16.7 446 ↓ 16.2 790 ↓ 14.9 734 ↓ 28.6

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

28.0 ↑ 1.9 ↓ 26.6

↓ <0.1 ↓ 4.9 ↑ 2.7

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

12,092 8,275 847 14,608

↓ 2.3

↓ 12.0 ↓

Planted Harvested Yield Production
Selected Upcoming Reports

May 12, 2021

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

May 21 Cattle on Feed

May 26 Farm Labor

May 27 Floriculture Crops

May 28 Agricultural Prices

Cotton System

Fats and Oils

Grain Crushings

June 10 Crop Production

June 24 Hogs and Pigs

Acreage

Grain Stocks

Rice Stocks

June 30

June 1
#StatChat

May 12, 2021
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-2127

(800) 727-9540

nass@usda.gov