Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

Executive Summary

Travis Averill, Chief

Livestock Branch

September 24, 2020
2020 September Hogs & Pigs Survey

Number of Samples

September 24, 2020
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

No Revisions

September 24, 2020
U.S. Hogs and Pigs September 1

2019 2020 % Change from 

(1,000 head) Previous Year

All Hogs and Pigs 78,583 79,099 ↑ 0.7

Breeding Hogs 6,431 6,333 ↓ 1.5

Market Hogs 72,153 72,766 ↑ 0.9

79.6

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

81

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Million head U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

September June

78.6 79.1

Top 5 States

Inventory

(1,000 head)

Iowa 25,100

North Carolina 9,600

Minnesota 9,200

Illinois 5,400

Indiana 4,450

September 24, 2020
September 1, 2020 Hogs and Pigs Inventory

(1,000) Head and Percent Change from Previous Year

September 24, 2020
U.S. Hogs and Pigs September 1

2019 2020 % Change from 

(1,000 head) Previous Year

Market Hogs 72,153 72,766 ↑ 0.9

Less than 50 lbs 23,376 22,559 ↓ 3.5

50 – 119 lbs 21,224 20,490 ↓ 3.5

120 – 179 lbs 14,654 15,547 ↑ 6.1

180 lbs or more 12,899 14,169 ↑ 9.9

11

14

17

20

23

26

Sep 2017 Dec 2017 Mar 2018 Jun 2018 Sep 2018 Dec 2018 Mar 2019 Jun 2019 Sep 2019 Dec 2019 Mar 2020 Jun 2020 Sep 20202

Million head Market Hogs by Weight Class

LT 50 LBS 50 TO 119 LBS 120 TO 179 LBS GE 180 LBS

September 24, 2020
U.S. Hogs and Pigs September 1

2019 2020 % Change from 

(1,000 head) Previous Year

Sows Farrowed 3,275 3,180 ↓ 2.9

Intentions

Sep – Nov 3,265 3,118 ↓ 4.5

Dec – Feb 3,158 3,111 ↓ 1.5

3.18

3.12

3.11

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Million head U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

Jun-Aug Estimates Sep-Nov Intentions Dec-Feb Intentions

September 24, 2020
U.S. Hogs and Pigs September 1

2019 2020 % Change from

(1,000 head) Previous Year

Pig Crop 36,369 35,115 ↓ 3.4

(Number)

Pigs per Litter 11.11 11.04 ↓ 0.6

11.01

11.11

11.04

9.50

9.80

10.10

10.40

10.70

11.00

11.30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pigs per Litter U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

June-August March-May

September 24, 2020
Trade Expectations Compared to NASS 

Estimates Percent of Previous Year

September 24, 2020

97.0

95.4

95.0

100.1

97.4

99.8

98.5

95.5

96.6

100.8

98.5

100.7

92.5 94.5 96.5 98.5 100.5 102.5 104.5

Dec-Feb Farrowings

Sep-Nov Farrowings

Jun-Aug Pig Crop

Market Hogs

Breeding Hogs

All Hogs and Pigs

Min Trade Range Trade Average NASS
All Hogs and Pigs 

First Estimate vs Final Estimate

59

64

69

74

79

84

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Million head

Lower Trade Range Trade Range ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate

September 24, 2020
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition and Utilization

September 24, 2020

Year

Jun 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Sep 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2011 5,803 848 851 5,806 50

2012 5,862 859 785 5,788 50

2013 5,884 796 728 5,816 49

2014 5,855 751 816 5,920 51

2015 5,926 798 858 5,986 51

2016 5,979 802 839 6,016 51

2017 6,109 828 836 6,117 51

2018 6,320 850 860 6,330 51

2019 6,410 823 844 6,431 51

2020 6,326 921 928 6,333 50
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

(1,000 head)

September 24, 2020

79% 83% 83% 83%

84% 85%

84% 85% 85% 84%

84% 84%

84%

85%

83%

83% 82%

83% 85%

21% 17% 17% 17%

16% 15%

16% 15% 15% 16%

16% 16%

16%

15%

17%

17% 18%

17% 15%

1,453 

1,401 1,366 1,375 1,409 1,412 

1,327 1,326 1,326 1,320 

1,257 1,222 

1,398 

1,262 

1,124 

1,267 1,299 

1,221 1,209 

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Feeder Slaughter
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs and Corn

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Hogs $/cwt Corn $/bu

Hogs Corn

Hogs Corn

Month $/lbs $/bu

February 45.50 3.78

March 47.70 3.68

April 42.30 3.29

May 51.00 3.20

June 41.30 3.16

July 39.90 3.21

Hog to Corn

Month Ratio

February 12.04

March 12.96

April 12.86

May 15.94

June 13.07

July 12.43

September 24, 2020
Upcoming Reports

September 25 Cattle on Feed

September 30

Small Grain Summary

Grain Stocks

Agricultural Prices

October 1 Cotton Systems, Fats & Oils, Grain 

Crushing

October 5 Dairy Products

October 9 Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

October 22 Cold Storage

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

September 24, 2020
USDA NASS Data Users’ Meeting

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

12:30 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. EDT

Registration information coming soon.
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@usda.gov