MACTExistingUPLforMercuryUsingPooledVariance,CorrectedforTemporalAutocorrelationwithIntraquarryVariabilityEmissions(lb/tonfeed)Runs KilnID1259 KilnID1286 KilnID1302 KilnID1315 KilnID1364 KilnID1435 KilnID1484 KilnID16501 18.88 27.01 16.82 16.67 26.00 30.50 30.50 13.222 15.77 28.73 12.97 12.76 28.27 27.52 27.52 7.643 20.71 28.67 9.49 9.57 27.59 29.07 29.07 9.534 22.61 27.95 10.43 10.58 37.25 24.64 24.64 1.715 19.67 7.66 9.44 9.64 28.78 23.82 23.82 7.666 25.90 7.49 11.47 11.71 7.72 24.52 24.52 0.327 22.63 7.58 13.59 13.83 42.98 25.14 25.14 14.128 21.21 8.12 12.85 12.72 25.28 26.46 26.46 13.709 5.07 23.93 4.30 4.38 24.67 25.49 25.49 12.7210 44.96 22.61 12.04 12.29 25.39 38.60 38.60 11.2411 34.37 23.06 21.41 20.55 24.24 24.65 24.65 10.5612 13.46 24.21 13.65 13.82 23.34 29.45 29.45 9.8213 11.57 25.25 12.44 12.54 25.04 25.04 25.04 12.9214 13.90 21.47 16.52 16.66 23.65 29.91 29.91 13.7015 27.43 25.53 22.02 22.51 26.83 1.43 1.43 9.4616 25.55 25.89 12.31 12.31 27.19 5.07 5.07 7.6617 21.95 29.34 15.39 15.11 24.25 25.97 25.97 12.3618 12.10 26.03 13.51 13.59 25.28 29.30 29.30 13.9819 12.83 7.60 3.75 3.82 24.83 26.93 26.93 9.4020 9.18 24.26 9.40 9.59 23.88 26.63 26.63 8.6821 8.74 23.68 10.88 11.06 23.69 24.82 24.82 7.6022 17.63 19.77 12.45 12.35 21.74 24.11 24.11 7.6223 47.30 21.97 11.76 11.89 26.04 22.00 22.00 7.6324 33.53 22.80 11.73 11.75 7.28 22.00 22.00 8.2025 19.11 23.23 60.15 61.31 26.36 22.00 22.00 11.2726 25.09 31.24 20.59 19.93 36.12 35.74 35.74 8.9327 14.94 30.64 13.96 14.10 28.96 24.47 24.47 7.6428 17.89 32.58 21.90 21.19 29.82 38.69 38.69 7.6029 24.46 28.53 12.74 11.85 29.05 27.28 27.2830 39.85 28.41 27.66 26.93 26.9331 12.95 23.83 23.833224.11 24.113327.28 27.283424.82 24.823524.47 24.47ni=numberruns= 31.00 29.00 30.00 30.00 29.00 35.00 35.00 28.00ni‐1 30.00 28.00 29.00 29.00 28.00 34.00 34.00 27.00=sumof(ni‐1) 268.00means 21.33 22.65 15.28 15.26 25.91 25.51 25.51 9.53Mean 20.69 #sourcemean=meanofsourcemeansN=Numbersources= 9.00 #becauseUPLisbasedonsourcemeansm=numberfutureruns= 30.00t‐statistic2.34 =tinv((1‐.99)*AssumingCorrelatedvariablescorrelation0.14 0.54 0.10 0.08‐0.19 0.24 0.24 0.20Pooledstdev= 9.62605957 Revised3quarry0.52Variancedata= 92.6610229 ***definedassdev^2adjustmentfortemporalc111.996455 ***definedasbeforevariance*(1+corr)intraquarryvariance= 116.012236 ***definedas(RSD*Mean)^2adjustmentfortemporalc175.953767totalvariance 287.950222 ***QUESTIONFORMIKE:DOESTEMPORALCORRELATIONAFFECTTHEQUARRYORONLYTHEKILNS?***INOTHERWORDS,WHATYOUGETFROMTHEQUARRYONEDAYDEPENDSOFWHATYOUGETTH***IfNOT,THENONLYTHEMEASUREMENTSHAVETEMPORALCORRELATION,IFYES:THENBOTHTH***DATAANDINTRAQUARRYVARIANCENEEDTOBEMULTIPLIEDBY(1+CORR)Variance=Variancepooled,intraquarry287.95 #calculatedasvariance*(1+average(temporalcorrelation))SQRT(Variance*(1/n+1/m)) 5.98UPL‐‐sourcemeanandvariancepooled34.69 lb/MMtonsfeed57.24 lb/MMtonsclinker***ifthedataincolumnsOtoQaretheintraquarrydata,wecancalculatethetemporalcorrelationtitfortheadjustmentoftheintraquarryvarianceKilnID159413.6030.0532.8832.5928.7334.1432.3323.3835.0032.9131.4427.4828.5525.1925.6310.0128.0330.2725.8533.3629.1026.9129.7030.0210.9111.8714.0413.4915.7213.7530.0029.0025.232,df)0.53?HEPREVIOUSDAYS?HEVARIANCEOFthereanduseMACTNewUPLforMercuryUsingPooledVariance,CorrectedforTemporalAutocorrelationwithIntraquarryVariability‐07/28/10,3:10PMEmissions(lb/tonfeed)Runs MACTNewKiln16501 13.222 7.643 9.534 1.715 7.666 0.327 14.128 13.709 12.7210 11.2411 10.5612 9.8213 12.9214 13.7015 9.4616 7.6617 12.3618 13.9819 9.4020 8.6821 7.6022 7.6223 7.6324 8.2025 11.2726 8.9327 7.6428 7.6029303132333435ni=numberruns= 28.00ni‐1 27.00=sumof(ni‐1) 27.00Mean 9.53 #sourcemean=meanofsourcemeansntobeusedwith1sou28.00m=numberfuturerun30.00t‐statistic =quantilet‐distributionwithdfdegreesoffreedomat.99confidencelevel=2.47AssumingCorrelatedvariablescorrelation =correl(data‐last,data‐firstobs)0.24Stdev= 3.35 Revised3qu0.52Variancedata= 11.2533357***definedassdev^2adjustmentfortempor13.4477546***definedasbeforevariance*(1+corr)intraquarryvariance= 24.62682492***definedas(RSD*Mean)^2adjustmentfortempor37.35108256***ifthedataincolumnsOtoQaretheintraquarrydata,wecancalculatethetemtotalvariance 50.79883717***definedasvarianceofdata+intraquarryvarianceVariance=Variancepooled,intraquarrydataadjustedfortemporal50.7988372SQRT(Variance*(1/n+1/m)) 1.87284243UPL‐‐sourcemeanandvariancepooleddata,includingintraquarry14.1634054lb/MMtonsfeed23.3696189lb/MMtonsclinkerRecalltheformulaforthevarianceisNisthenumberofsamplingunitsusedinthesample:inthiscasethenumberofdamporalcorrelationthereanduseitfortheadjustmentoftheintraquarryvarianceatapoints