Small Grains Summary

Grain Stocks

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

September 30, 2020
Special Note

September 30, 2020

• The Grain Stocks report includes revisions to the previous season’s corn and 

soybean production.

• Soybean revisions have been completed in this report for many years.

• Corn revisions have been moved to this report (previously completed in 

January Crop Production Annual Summary report) to coincide with the end 

of the marketing season and align with soybeans.

• Corn production for 2019 is revised up 2.67 million bushels while 2019 

soybean production is revised down 333,000 bushels from the previous 

estimate.
Data Sources

September 30, 2020

Operator Reported September Ag Survey Sample Size =62,534 August 29 - September 16

Surveys Off-Farm Grain Stocks ~8,400 Facilities August 27 - September 18

Field Objective Yield

Survey Winter Wheat

FSA

Certified Acres

FSA and RMA

Failed Acres

Acres reported as "failed" to either the Farm Service Agency (FSA) or the Risk 

Management Agency (RMA) are considered minimum levels of abandonment.

Sample Size = 1,155 Prior to Harvest

Farm Service Agency policy requires that producers participating in several 

programs submit an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms.
September Ag Survey

Sample Sizes

September 30, 2020

Alaska = 148
2020 Winter Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 30, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Kansas 6,600 ↓ 7.0 6,250 ↓ 6.7 45.0 ↓ 13.5 281,250 ↓ 19.3

Washington 1,800 ↑ 2.9 1,750 ↑ 2.9 76.0 ↑ 8.6 133,000 ↑ 11.8

Oklahoma 4,250 ↑ 1.2 2,600 ↓ 5.5 40.0 N C 104,000 ↓ 5.5

Montana 1,550 ↓ 22.5 1,490 ↓ 21.6 51.0 ↑ 2.0 75,990 ↓ 20.0

Idaho 720 ↓ 1.4 660 ↓ 2.9 101.0 ↑ 16.1 66,660 ↑ 12.7

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↓ 6.4

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

30,415 23,024 50.9 1,171,022

↓ 0.4 ↓ 1.8 ↓ 0.4 ↓ 2.3

↓ 5.0 ↓ 11.1

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↓ 3.4
2020 Winter Wheat Acres

United States

September 30, 2020

Million Acres

40.6 40.9

43.2 42.4

39.7

36.1

32.7 32.5

31.5

30.4

32.4

34.6

32.7 32.3 32.3

30.2

25.3 24.7 24.6

23.0 20.0

24.0

28.0

32.0

36.0

40.0

44.0

48.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Planted Harvested
34.7

38.2

40.2 40.2

37.7

37.1

44.6

46.9

47.8

44.6

43.4

38.2

46.7

43.5

44.3

41.6 41.7

47.1

44.0

46.5 46.1

47.1 47.3

42.6 42.5

55.3

50.2

47.9

53.6

50.9

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

56.0

61.0

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

2020 Winter Wheat Yield

United States

September 30, 2020

Bushels per Acre
2020 Winter Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

September 30, 2020
2020 Winter Wheat Production

United States

September 30, 2020

Billion Bushels

1.49

1.63

1.54

1.38 1.37

1.67

1.27

1.18

1.32

1.17

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 Winter Wheat Objective Yield

Heads per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region

September 30, 2020

Heads per Acre Bushels per Acre

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

55

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50 June July

August Final June July

August Final June July

August Final June JulyAugust Final June July

August Final June July

August Final

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Heads per Square Foot Yield
2020 U.S. Winter Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2020

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
2020 Other Spring Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 30, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 5,700 ↓ 14.9 5,630 ↓ 5.4 49.0 N C 275,870 ↓ 5.4

Montana 3,300 ↑ 13.8 3,280 ↑ 20.1 38.0 ↑ 2.7 124,640 ↑ 23.4

Minnesota 1,430 ↓ 1.4 1,360 ↓ 2.9 53.0 ↓ 7.0 72,080 ↓ 9.7

South Dakota 770 ↑ 20.3 760 ↑ 28.8 47.0 ↑ 9.3 35,720 ↑ 40.8

Washington 540 ↑ 3.8 535 ↑ 3.9 61.0 ↑ 29.8 32,635 ↑ 34.8

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

12,250 12,060 48.6 585,990

↑ 1.5

↓ 3.3 ↑ 3.7 ↑ 0.6 ↑ 4.4

↑ 0.4 ↑ 2.2 ↓ 0.8

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
2020 Other Spring Wheat Acres

United States

September 30, 2020

Million Acres

12.3 12.3

11.6

13.0

13.4

11.6

11.0

13.2

12.7

12.3

12.0 12.0

11.3

12.7

13.1

11.3

10.1

12.9

11.6

12.1

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Planted Harvested
33.4

41.8

33.7

31.8 32.2

35.1

29.9

34.9

34.1

38.4

35.2

29.1

39.5

43.2

37.1

33.2

37.1

40.5

45.2

46.1

37.7

44.9

47.1 46.7

46.2

47.3

41.0

48.3 48.3 48.6

26.0

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

2020 Other Spring Wheat Yield

United States

September 30, 2020

Bushels per Acre
2020 Other Spring Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

September 30, 2020
2020 Other Spring Wheat Production

United States

September 30, 2020

Billion Bushels

0.453

0.540 0.534

0.595 0.603

0.532

0.416

0.623

0.561

0.586

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2020

0.520

0.530

0.540

0.550

0.560

0.570

0.580

0.590

0.600

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
2020 Durum Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 30, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 910 ↑ 26.4 905 ↑ 48.4 39.0 ↓ 8.2 35,295 ↑ 36.1

Montana 690 ↑ 25.5 685 ↑ 35.6 39.0 ↓ 9.3 26,715 ↑ 23.0

Arizona 4 4 ↑ 22.2 4 3 ↑ 22.9 99.0 ↓ 4.8 4,257 ↑ 17.0

California 3 0 N C 2 0 ↓ 9.1 87.0 ↓ 14.7 1,740 ↓ 22.5

Idaho 1 0 ↑ 100.0 9 ↑ 80.0 89.0 ↑ 2.3 801 ↑ 84.1

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 41.2

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

1,684 1,662 41.4 68,808

↑ 12.3 ↑ 15.1 ↓ 3.3 ↑ 11.4

↓ 9.6 ↑ 27.5

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 25.6
2020 Durum Wheat Acres

United States

September 30, 2020

Million Acres

1.34

2.14

1.40 1.41

1.95

2.41

2.31

2.07

1.34

1.68

1.28

2.12

1.34 1.35

1.91

2.36

2.11

1.97

1.18

1.66

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Planted Harvested
32.5

39.7

33.6

35.6

30.5

32.6

27.6

37.0

27.8

30.7

30.0

29.5

33.7

38.0

37.2

29.5

34.1

31.3

44.0

41.2

36.8

38.4

43.3

40.2

44.0 44.0

26.0

39.5

45.8

41.4

23.0

28.0

33.0

38.0

43.0

48.0

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

2020 Durum Wheat Yield

United States

September 30, 2020

Bushels per Acre
2020 Durum Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

September 30, 2020
2020 Durum Wheat Production

United States

September 30, 2020

Billion Bushels

0.047

0.082

0.058 0.054

0.084

0.104

0.055

0.078

0.054

0.069

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 U.S. Durum Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2020

0.050

0.055

0.060

0.065

0.070

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
September 30, 2020

September 2020 Small Grains

Acreage, Yield, and Production

Unit Unit

Barley Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 6.3 ↓ 4.4 ↓ 1.6 ↓ 6.0

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 5.4 ↓ 4.0 ↓ 0.3 ↓ 4.2

Oats Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 4.8 ↑ 0.6 ↑ 0.2 ↑ 0.7

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 5.4 ↑ 21.3 ↑ 1.2 ↑ 22.7

Rye Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 13.3 ↓ 16.0 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 5.4 ↑ 6.5 ↑ 1.7 ↑ 8.6

Production

(1,000 Units)

165,324

65,355

11,532

2,621 2,133 77.5

Yield

(Units per Acre)

2,984 1,004

1,955 330

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

65.1

34.9
7.0

8.5

13.4

8.1

10.7

28.5

10.1 10.3

17.7

56.7

16.2

35.2

7.2

28.4

10.2

14.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Barley Durum Wheat Oats Other Spring Wheat

2017 2018 2019 2020

September 30, 2020

September 2020 Small Grains

U.S. Percent of Acres Remaining to be Harvested

Percent
September 30, 2020

September 2020 All Wheat

Stocks

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Kansas 428,936 ↓ 9.4 32,000 ↑ 1.6 396,936 ↓ 10.2

North Dakota 308,664 ↓ 10.1 225,000 ↓ 8.2 83,664 ↓ 14.8

Montana 217,591 ↑ 5.3 169,000 ↑ 3.0 48,591 ↑ 13.8

Washington 182,093 ↑ 17.4 25,500 ↑ 54.5 156,593 ↑ 13.0

Oklahoma 133,604 ↓ 23.1 13,500 ↑ 12.5 120,104 ↓ 25.7

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

September 1 September 1 September 1

2,158,654 705,050 1,453,604

↓ 8.0 ↓ 4.0 ↓ 9.8

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

20%

14%

10%

6% 9%

41%

September 1, 2020 All Wheat

Stocks By State

Kansas North Dakota Montana

Washington Oklahoma Other

33%

67%

September 1, 2020 All Wheat

Stocks By Position

On-Farm Off-Farm
September 30, 2020

September 2020 All Wheat Stocks

United States

3.14

2.86

2.99

2.85

2.62

2.81

3.28

2.92 2.98 3.01

2.85

2.45

2.15 2.12

1.87 1.91

2.10

2.55

2.27

2.39 2.35

2.16

1.93

1.66 1.67

1.47 1.53

1.75

2.08

1.87

2.01

1.84

1.43

1.20 1.23

1.06 1.14

1.37

1.66

1.50 1.59

1.42

0.86

0.74 0.72

0.59

0.75

0.98

1.18 1.10 1.08 1.03

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

Billion Bushels

Supply Sep 1 Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1
2020 U.S. All Wheat Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2020

2.10

2.15

2.20

2.25

2.30

2.35

2.40

September

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
September 30, 2020

September 2020 Corn

Stocks

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Iowa 387,910 ↓ 4.4 140,000 N C 247,910 ↓ 6.8

Illinois 267,537 ↓ 40.3 52,000 ↓ 56.7 215,537 ↓ 34.3

Minnesota 252,338 ↓ 4.4 130,000 N C N C 122,338 ↓ 8.6

Nebraska 238,918 ↓ 0.2 87,000 ↑ 2.4 151,918 ↓ 1.5

South Dakota 113,837 ↓ 11.9 57,000 ↓ 16.2 56,837 ↓ 7.2

10.2

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

September 1 September 1 September 1

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

1,995,224

↓

750,800 1,244,424

↓ 7.8 ↓

September 1 September 1 September 1

11.5

Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

19%

13%

13%

12%

6%

37%

September 1, 2020 Corn

Stocks By State

Iowa Illinois Minnesota

Nebraska South Dakota Other

38%

62%

September 1, 2020 Corn

Stocks By Position

On-Farm Off-Farm
September 30, 2020

September 2020 Corn Stocks

United States

14.7 14.1

13.4

11.7

14.7

15.4 15.3

16.9 16.9 16.5 15.8

10.9

10.1 9.6

8.0

10.5

11.2 11.2

12.4 12.6

11.9

11.3

7.69

6.52 6.02

5.40

7.01

7.75 7.82

8.62 8.89 8.61

7.95

4.31

3.67

3.15 2.77

3.85

4.45 4.71

5.23 5.30 5.20 5.02

1.71

1.13 0.99 0.82 1.23 1.73 1.74

2.29 2.14 2.22 2.00

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20

Billion Bushels

Supply Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1 Sep 1
2020 U.S. Corn Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2020

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

2.15

2.20

2.25

2.30

2.35

2.40

September

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
September 30, 2020

2019 U.S. Corn Crop

Balance Sheet

Sept. 1, 2019 Beginning Stocks 2,221 2,221 N C

2019 Production 13,617 13,620 ↑ 3

Imports 4 5 * 4 5 * N C

Total Supply 15,883 15,886 ↑ 3

Exports 1,765 * 1,765 * N C

Food, Seed, and Industrial 6,265 * 6,265 * N C

Measured Disappearance 8,030 * 8,030 * NC

Ending Stocks 2,253 * 1,995 ↓ 258

Residual 5,600 * 5,860 ↑ 260

* WAOB Forecast - September WASDE Report

Change

(Million Bushels)

Previous

Estimates

(Million Bushels)

September 30

Estimates

(Million Bushels)
September 30, 2020

September 2020 Soybeans

Stocks

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Iowa 101,978 ↓ 35.8 26,000 ↓ 41.6 75,978 ↓ 33.6

Illinois 65,958 ↓ 64.7 13,000 ↓ 60.6 52,958 ↓ 65.6

Nebraska 51,170 ↓ 20.1 14,500 ↑ 38.1 36,670 ↓ 31.5

Minnesota 48,349 ↓ 48.3 17,000 ↓ 52.8 31,349 ↓ 45.4

South Dakota 42,486 ↓ 27.1 13,000 ↓ 50.0 29,486 ↓ 8.8

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

523,478 141,200 382,278

↓ 42.4 ↓ 46.7 ↓ 40.6

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

19%

13%

10%

8% 9%

41%

September 1, 2020 Soybean

Stocks By State

Iowa Illinois Nebraska

Minnesota South Dakota Other

27%

73%

September 1, 2020 Soybean

Stocks By Position

On-Farm Off-Farm
September 30, 2020

September 2020 Soybean Stocks

United States

3.50 3.48 3.31 3.21

3.50

4.02 4.12

4.49

4.71 4.87

4.46

2.34 2.28 2.37

1.97

2.15

2.53

2.71

2.90

3.16

3.75

3.25

1.27 1.25 1.37

1.00 0.99

1.33

1.53

1.74

2.11

2.73

2.25

0.57 0.62 0.67

0.43 0.41

0.63

0.87 0.97

1.22

1.78

1.38

0.151 0.215 0.169 0.141 0.092 0.191 0.197 0.302 0.438

0.909

0.523

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20

Billion Bushels

Supply Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1 Sep 1
2020 U.S. Soybean Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2020

0.51

0.53

0.55

0.57

0.59

0.61

September

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
September 30, 2020

2019 U.S. Soybean Crop

Balance Sheet

Sept. 1, 2019 Beginning Stocks 909 909 N C

2019 Production 3,552 3,552 ↓ <1

Imports 1 6 * 1 6 * N C

Total Supply 4,477 4,477 ↓ <1

Crushings 2,170 * 2,170 * N C

Exports 1,680 * 1,680 * N C

Seed 9 7 * 9 7 * N C

Measured Disappearance 3,947 * 3,947 * NC

Ending Stocks 575 * 523 ↓ 52

Residual -45 * 6 ↑ 51

* WAOB Forecast - September WASDE Report

Change

(Million Bushels)

Previous

Estimates

(Million Bushels)

September 30

Estimates

(Million Bushels)
September 30, 2020

September 2020

Stocks

Unit

Barley Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↓ 5.2 ↓ 6.6 ↓ 2.9

Durum Wheat Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↓ 20.1 ↓ 12.3 ↓ 30.1

Oats Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↑ 11.3 ↑ 5.1 ↑ 22.0

Safflower Pounds

% Change from Previous Year ↓ 17.4 N/A N/A

Sorghum Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↓ 53.7 ↓ 26.6 ↓ 55.1

Sunflower Pounds

% Change from Previous Year ↓ 25.6 ↓ 65.8 ↓ 13.6

66,867

71,010

27,102

27,017

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

(1,000 Units) (1,000 Units) (1,000 Units)

179,990

70,602

108,980

43,500

39,850

(D) (D)

2,355 27,143

22,485 190,191

7,629

29,498

212,676
Selected Upcoming Reports

September 30, 2020

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

Cotton System

Fats & Oils

Grain Crushings

Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

Cotton Ginnings

Organics

Cattle on Feed

Rice Stocks

October 30 Agricultural Prices

October 1

October 9

October 22

October 23
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September 30, 2020

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September 30, 2020
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