October Crop Production

Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

October 12, 2023
Special Note

October 12, 2023

Each October, NASS has the opportunity to revise planted and harvested acreage 

estimates for canola, dry edible beans, and sunflower. Revisions are based on all 

available data, including the latest certified acreage data from the Farm Service 

Agency (FSA). All States in the estimating program for these crops were subject to 

review and updating.
Data Sources

October 12, 2023

Operator Reported

Survey

Objective Yield

Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Tree Inventory

Florida Citrus

Limb Count

Florida Citrus

Size and Drop

Florida Citrus

Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through

(Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt September 29

FSA

Certified Acres

1,791 Groves

July 10 - September 21

September 5 - September 26

Field Surveys

Ag Yield Sample Size = 7,821 September 29 - October 5

Sample Size = 3,930 September 23 - October 1

Farm Service Agency policy requires that producers participating in several programs 

submit an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms.

170,468 Acres July 1, 2022 - June 30, 2023

2,925 Groves
October 2023 Ag Yield Survey

Sample Sizes

October 12, 2023
United States Corn Progress

Percent Harvested

October 12, 2023

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/17 9/24 10/01 10/08 10/15 10/22 10/29 11/05 11/12 11/19 11/26

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
October 2023 Corn

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2023

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Iowa 13,100 ↑ 1.6 12,600 ↑ 2.0 199 ↓ 0.5 2,507,400 ↑ 1.5

Illinois 11,200 ↑ 3.7 11,000 ↑ 3.8 200 ↓ 6.5 2,200,000 ↓ 3.0

Nebraska 9,950 ↑ 3.6 9,590 ↑ 8.7 174 ↑ 5.5 1,668,660 ↑ 14.7

Minnesota 8,600 ↑ 7.5 8,200 ↑ 9.5 179 ↓ 8.2 1,467,800 ↑ 0.5

Indiana 5,500 ↑ 4.8 5,380 ↑ 4.9 197 ↑ 3.7 1,059,860 ↑ 8.7

0.5

↑ 7.1 ↑

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

N C

10.1 ↓ 0.2 ↑ 9.8

N C ↓ 0.5 ↓

Planted Harvested Yield Production

94,868 87,096 173.0 15,064,420

Top 5 States - By Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
138.6

113.5

127.1126.7

134.4133.8

136.9138.2

129.3

142.2

160.3

147.9149.1150.7

153.3

164.4

152.6

146.8

123.1

158.1

171.0

168.4

174.6

176.6176.4

167.5

171.4

176.7

173.4173.0

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Corn Yield

United States

October 12, 2023

Bushels per Acre
October 2023 Corn Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

October 12, 2023
October 2023 Corn Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

October 12, 2023
October 2023 Corn

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

October 12, 2023
October 2023 Corn Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

October 12, 2023

Percent

8 0

9 6

2 9

9 4

6 8

9 6

6 9

9 4

5 0

9 4

6 0

0

1 3

4 9

1

2 5 2 2

3 8

2 6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Mature Dent
October 2023 Corn Objective Yield

Ears per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region

October 12, 2023

Ears per Acre Bushels per Acre

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

27,000

27,500

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

30,000

September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Ears per Acre Yield
14.2

13.6

15.1

14.6 14.3

13.6

14.1

15.1

13.7

15.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Corn Production

United States

October 12, 2023

Billion Bushels
2023 U.S. Corn Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

October 12, 2023

14.8

14.9

15.0

15.1

15.2

15.3

15.4

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Soybean Progress

Percent Harvested

October 12, 2023

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/17 9/24 10/01 10/08 10/15 10/22 10/29 11/05 11/12 11/19 11/26

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
October 2023 Soybeans

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2023

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Illinois 10,350 ↓ 4.2 10,300 ↓ 4.2 6 1 ↓ 3.2 628,300 ↓ 7.2

Iowa 9,950 ↓ 1.5 9,870 ↓ 1.6 5 8 ↓ 0.9 572,460 ↓ 2.4

Minnesota 7,350 ↓ 1.3 7,280 ↓ 1.5 4 8 ↓ 4.0 349,440 ↓ 5.4

Indiana 5,500 ↓ 6.0 5,480 ↓ 6.0 6 1 ↑ 6.1 334,280 ↓ 0.3

Nebraska 5,250 ↓ 8.7 5,200 ↓ 8.0 5 4 ↑ 10.2 280,800 ↑ 1.4

N C ↓ 3.9

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↓ 4.4

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

N C 1.0

82,791 49.6 4,104,379

N C ↓ 1.0 ↓

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↓ 3.9

83,600

Top 5 States - By Production
41.4

35.3

37.6

38.9 38.9

36.6

38.1

39.6

38.0

33.9

42.2

43.1 42.9

41.7

39.7

44.0 43.5

42.0

40.0

44.0

47.5 48.0

51.9

49.3

50.6

47.4

51.0

51.7

49.6 49.6

29

34

39

44

49

54

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Soybean Yield

United States

October 12, 2023

Bushels per Acre
October 2023 Soybean Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

October 12, 2023
October 2023 Soybean Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

October 12, 2023
October 2023 Soybeans

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

October 12, 2023
October 2023 Soybean Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

October 12, 2023

Percent

5 7

9 3

2 5

9 1

6 4

9 4

6 1

9 2

4 2

9 0

5 1

0 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Mature
October 2023 Soybean Objective Yield

Pods per 18 Square Feet and Yield for 11 State Region

October 12, 2023

Pods per 18 Square Feet Bushels per Acre

35

40

45

50

55

60

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Pods per 18 Square Feet Yield
3.93 3.93

4.30 4.41 4.43

3.55

4.22

4.47

4.27

4.10

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Soybean Production

United States

October 12, 2023

Billion Bushels
2023 U.S. Soybean Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

October 12, 2023

4.05

4.10

4.15

4.20

4.25

4.30

4.35

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Cotton Progress

Percent Harvested

October 12, 2023

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/10 9/17 9/24 10/01 10/08 10/15 10/22 10/29 11/05 11/12 11/19 11/26

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
October 2023 Cotton

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2023

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

Texas 5,579 ↓ 29.2 3,575 ↑ 76.2 515.0 ↓ 29.8 3,839 ↑ 23.7

Georgia 1,110 ↓ 14.0 1,100 ↓ 13.4 1,004.0 ↑ 0.2 2,300 ↓ 13.2

Arkansas 510 ↓ 20.3 505 ↓ 19.8 1,188.0 ↑ 0.8 1,250 ↓ 19.3

Mississippi 400 ↓ 24.5 395 ↓ 24.8 1,082.0 ↓ 0.2 890 ↓ 25.0

North Carolina 380 ↓ 19.1 370 ↓ 19.6 908.0 ↓ 13.4 700 ↓ 30.3

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

9.8 ↓ 19.3 ↓ 11.4

N C N C ↓ 2.4

↑

↓ 2.4

↓ 25.6

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

10,233 8,021 767 12,817

Planted Harvested Yield Production

Top 5 States - By Production
708

537

705

673

625

607

632

705

665

730

855

831

814

879

813

776

812

790

892

822

838

766

867

905

882

831

853

819

950

767

480

530

580

630

680

730

780

830

880

930

980

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Cotton Yield

United States

October 12, 2023

Pounds per Acre
October 2023 Cotton Yield

Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Month

October 12, 2023
October 2023 Cotton Yield

Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Year

October 12, 2023
16.3

12.9

17.2

20.9

18.4

19.9

14.6

17.5

14.5

12.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Cotton Production

United States

October 12, 2023

Million Bales
2023 U.S. Cotton Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

October 12, 2023

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

August September October November December Final

Million Bales

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
October 2023 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2023

Unit Unit

Canola Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 3.0 ↑ 2.5 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.2 ↑ 6.2 ↓ 1.2 ↑ 4.9

Dry Edible Beans Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 4.3 ↓ 4.4 ↑ 3.3 ↓ 1.2

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 5.3 ↓ 6.6 ↓ 7.1 ↓ 13.2

Alfalfa Hay Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C ↑ 7.7 ↑ 7.8

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 5.0 ↑ 4.7 ↑ 10.0

Other Hay Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C ↑ 0.5 ↑ 0.3

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 4.9 ↑ 3.2 ↑ 8.1

Peanuts Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 1.2 ↓ 1.2

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 13.8 ↑ 15.7 ↓ 2.6 ↑ 12.7

1,650 1,600

2,351

Yield

(Units per Acre)

6,247,460

1,184 1,143

N/A 15,658

N/A 36,318

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

1,962

3.37

1.93

3,905

70,093

Production

(1,000 Units)

4,007,550

22,425

52,735

2,302 1,741
October 2023 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2023

Unit Unit

Rice Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 0.2 ↓ 0.2

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 30.4 ↑ 31.2 ↑ 4.8 ↑ 37.5

Sorghum Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 5.7 ↓ 5.7

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 13.5 ↑ 37.0 ↑ 39.7 ↑ 91.5

Sugarbeets Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 1.3 ↓ 1.5

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.3 ↓ 1.6 ↑ 8.7 ↑ 6.6

Sugarcane Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 0.1 ↑ 0.9 ↑ 0.9

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 0.2 ↓ 5.6 ↓ 5.7

Sunflower Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 1.9 ↓ 2.0 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 21.9 ↓ 21.4 ↓ 0.7 ↓ 21.9

N/A 928 35.2 32,691

1,322 1,262 1,738 2,194,450

57.4 359,575

1,132 1,119 31.1 34,739

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)

2,897 2,850 7,737 220,508

7,180 6,260
October 2023 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2023

Unit Unit

Tobacco Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 0.6 ↑ 4.6 ↑ 4.1

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 5.5 ↑ 1.6 ↓ 4.0

N/A 191 2,253 429,445

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)
October 2023 Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts

Production

October 12, 2023

Unit

Pecans Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 10.7

Production

(1,000 Units)

248,000

264

254

269

305

241

256

304

256

278

248

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million Pounds

Pecan Production

United States
October 2023 Citrus

Utilized Production

October 12, 2023

All Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 10.1

Non-Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 4.3

Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 24.0

Grapefruit

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 5.5

Lemons

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.2

Tangerines

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.8

Production

(1,000 Tons)

944

2,737

1,837

900

309

980

9.03 8.73

7.70

6.08

8.14 7.85

6.91

5.59

4.90 4.97

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Million Tons

All Citrus Production

United States

6.35

6.09

5.09

3.88

5.43 5.25

4.39

3.43

2.49

2.74

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Million Tons

All Orange Production

United States
Selected Upcoming Reports

October 12, 2023

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

Cattle on Feed

Cotton Ginnings

October 25 Rice Stocks

October 31 Agricultural Prices

Cotton System

Fats & Oils

Flour Milling

Grain Crushings

Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

October 20

November 1

November 9
Data Users’ Meeting

October 12, 2023

USDA Fall Data Users’ Meeting

October 17 & 18, 2023

12:00 – 3:00 p.m. ET

For more information and to register please go to

www.nass.usda.gov/go/data_users
#StatChat

October 12, 2023
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-2127

(800) 727-9540

nass@usda.gov