Hogs & Pigs Inventory

June 1, 2015

Executive Briefing

June 26, 2015

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview

June Hogs & Pigs

Data Collection Period May 30 – June 16

Sample Size 8,123

Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview

Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by Class, weight group, and quarter

Sows farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

June 26, 2015
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Previous 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

December 1, 2014 All Hogs 

and Pigs 66,050 +95+0.1%

+1,581

+2.4%

+1,676

+2.5% 67,726

Pig Crop 29,373 +1,260

+4.3% 30,633

March 1, 2015 All Hogs 

and Pigs 65,934 +700+1.1% 66,634

Pig Crop 28,758 +208

+0.7% 28,966

June 26, 2015
U.S. Hogs & Pigs June 1

Items 2014 2015 % PY

1,000 head

All Hogs & Pigs 61,568 66,900 109

Breeding Hogs 5,855 5,926 101

Market Hogs 55,713 60,975 109

180 lbs & over 10,166 11,529 113

120-179 lbs 11,491 12,810 111

50-119 lbs 15,801 17,181 109

less than 50 lbs 18,254 19,455 107

Sows Farrowed 2,810 2,850 101

Pig Crop 27,495 29,563 108

number

Pigs per Litter 9.78 10.37 106

1,000 head

June-August Farrowings 2,991 2,915 97

September-November Farrowings 2,994 2,865 96

June 26, 2015
61.6

66.9

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Million head

U.S. Quarterly Hogs & Pigs

2006 - 2015

June 26, 2015
NASS Estimates Compared

to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items

NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 108.7% 108.1% 107.4% – 109.0%

Breeding Hogs 101.2% 102.1% 101.3% – 102.7%

Market Hogs 109.4% 108.9% 107.9% – 110.8%

Mar – May Pig Crop 107.5% 107.8% 106.1% – 109.2%

Farrowing Intentions

Jun – Aug 2015 97.4% 99.5% 97.0% – 101.3%

Sep – Nov 2015 95.7% 100.6% 97.4% – 102.8%

June 26, 2015
59

61

63

65

67

69

71

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Million head

ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range

All Hogs and Pigs

First Estimate Versus Final Estimate

2006 - 2015

June 26, 2015
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2006-2015

2.85

2.91

2.87

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Million head

Mar-May Estimate Jun-Aug Intentions Sep-Nov Intentions

June 26, 2015
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Mar 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Jun 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2006 6,045 889 924 6,080 48

2007 6,149 955 975 6,169 49

2008 6,200 1,023 954 6,131 49

2009 5,992 876 852 5,968 50

2010 5,760 847 875 5,788 50

2011 5,788 826 841 5,803 50

2012 5,820 813 855 5,862 51

2013 5,834 848 898 5,884 48

2014 5,851 775 779 5,855 48

2015 5,982 781 725 5,926 48

June 26, 2015
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2006-2015

10.23

9.78

10.37

9.0

9.3

9.5

9.8

10.0

10.3

10.5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

June 26, 2015
U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

March-May 2015

10.37

8.00

8.70

9.10

9.50

10.10

10.40

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000+

Pigs per Litter

Size of Operation

June 26, 2015
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter

June 26, 2015
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs & Corn

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Corn $/bu

Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn

June 26, 2015
Upcoming NASS Reports

Release Date Report Title

June 29 Agricultural Prices

June 30 Acreage

Grain Stocks

July 1 CAIR: Cotton

Grain Crushings

July 10 Crop Production

July 21 Milk Production

July 24 Cattle

Cattle on Feed

June 26, 2015
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

June 26, 2015