12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

October Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

October 9, 2015
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

Field Crops Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops

Corn Citrus Dry Beans

Soybeans Pecans Tobacco

Cotton Sugarbeets

Rice Sugarcane

Peanuts

Sorghum

Alfalfa Hay

Other Hay

Canola

Sunflowers

Contents
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

Tree Inventory Limb Count

Objective

Surveys 

(Size and 

Drop)

Fruit 

Maturity

Survey Type Field Staff

Observations

Field Staff

Observations

Field Staff

Observations

Laboratory 

Tests

Crops 

Included

Oranges,

Grapefruit, 

Tangerines, 

Tangelos

Oranges,

Grapefruit, 

Tangerines, 

Tangelos

Oranges,

Grapefruit, 

Tangerines, 

Tangelos

Oranges

(excluding 

Navels),

Grapefruit

Sample Size 291,069 acres 3,263 groves

(2 trees per 

grove) 

1,785 groves

(1,462 are 

oranges)

425 samples

(325 are 

oranges)

Collection 

Period

September 2014 -

July 2015

July 13 –

September 18

2 surveys

July 16 -

September 25

September 

28-29

Survey Overview

Florida Citrus
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

October 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2015 Forecast Season 

Production

Oranges Mil Tons 5.77 NA -9.5

Grapefruit Thou Tons 823 NA -5.4

Lemons Thou Tons 844 NA -6.2

Tangelos Thou Tons 20.3 NA -33.8

Tangerines & 

Mandarins Thou Tons 843 NA NC
11.4

12.7

13.7

9.82

13.0

12.2 12.4

11.5

12.9

9.25 9.02

7.63

10.1

9.13

8.24

8.91 8.98

8.27

6.77

6.38

5.77

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Million Tons

Orange Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-9-15
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

Ag Yield Objective Yield

Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement

Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Sample Size 11,948 4,972

Collection Period Sept 26 – Oct 5 Sept 24 – Oct 1

Survey Overview
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

October 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

October Previous Previous

2015 Estimate Season 

Planted Area

Corn Mil Ac 88.4 -0.6 -2.4

Soybeans Mil Ac 83.2 -1.3 -0.1

Sorghum Mil Ac 8.65 -1.0 +21.2

Sunflowers Mil Ac 1.86 +10.5 +19.1

Canola Mil Ac 1.79 +13.8 +4.3

Dry Edible Beans Mil Ac 1.76 +0.3 +2.2

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

October 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

October Previous Previous

2015 Forecast Season 

Corn

Harvested Mil Ac 80.7 -0.5 -3.0

Yield Bu/Ac 168 +0.3 -1.8

Production Bil Bu 13.6 -0.2 -4.6

Crop Unit 
7.40

9.23 9.21

9.76

9.43

9.92 9.50

8.97

10.1

11.8

11.1

10.5

13.0

12.0

13.1

12.4 12.3

10.8

13.8

14.2

13.6

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Billion Bushels

Corn for Grain Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-9-15
USDA-NASS

10-9-15
2004

2005

2006 2007 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Aug-15 2014

Sep-15

Oct-15

0.260

0.270

0.280

0.290

0.300

0.310

0.320

0.330

0.340

0.350

0.360

25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500

Lbs/Ear

Ears Per Acre

Corn Objective Yield Region

Ears Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight

Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears

USDA-NASS

10-9-15
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

Year Dent Stage Mature

Percent

2011 24 57

2012 3 90

2013 NA NA

2014 39 53

2015 16 70

Corn Objective Yield - October

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

October 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

October Previous Previous

2015 Forecast Season 

Soybeans

Harvested Mil Ac 82.4 -1.3 -0.2

Yield Bu/Ac 47.2 +0.2 -0.6

Production Bil Bu 3.89 -1.2 -1.0

Crop Unit 
2.17

2.38

2.69 2.74

2.65

2.76

2.89

2.76

2.45

3.12 3.07

3.20

2.68

2.97

3.36

3.33

3.10 3.04

3.36

3.93 3.89

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Billion Bushels

Soybean Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-9-15
USDA-NASS

10-9-15
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 2014

Sep-15

Oct-15

0.260

0.265

0.270

0.275

0.280

0.285

0.290

0.295

0.300

0.305

0.310

0.315

0.320

0.325

1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900

Grams/Pod

Pods Per 18 Square Feet

Soybean Objective Yield Region

Pods Per 18 Square Feet Vs. Implied Pod Weight

Implied Pod Weight = (Published Yield / Pods)/0.0889

USDA-NASS

10-9-15
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

Year Mature

Percent

2011 32

2012 64

2013 NA

2014 35

2015 54

Soybean Objective Yield - October

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

October 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

October Previous Previous

2015 Forecast Season 

All Cotton

Harvested Mil Ac 8.17 NC -12.6

Yield Lb/Ac 784 -0.6 -6.4

Production Mil Bls 13.3 -0.7 -18.3

Crop Unit 
17.9

18.9 18.8

13.9

17.0 17.2

20.3

17.2

18.3

23.3

23.9

21.6

19.2

12.8

12.2

18.1

15.6

17.3

12.9

16.3

13.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Million Bales

All Cotton Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-9-15
USDA-NASS

10-9-15
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

October 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

October Previous Previous

2015 Forecast Season 

Rice

Harvested Mil Ac 2.57 NC -12.0

Yield Lbs/Ac 7,307 -0.9 -3.5

Production Mil Cwt 188 -0.9 -15.0

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

October 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

October Previous Previous

2015 Forecast Season 

Peanuts

Harvested Mil Ac 1.58 NC +19.6

Yield Lbs/Ac 3,997 +<0.1 +1.9

Production Bil Lbs 6.32 +<0.1 +21.9

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

October 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

October Previous Previous

2015 Forecast Season 

Sorghum

Harvested Mil Ac 7.65 -0.4 +19.4

Yield Bu/Ac 75.0 +0.1 +10.9

Production Mil Bu 574 -0.1 +32.6

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

October 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

October Previous Previous

2015 Forecast Season 

Alfalfa Hay

Harvested Mil Ac 18.3 NC -0.6

Yield Tons/Ac 3.45 +1.8 +3.6

Production Mil Tons 63.2 +1.8 +2.9

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

October 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

October Previous Previous

2015 Forecast Season 

All Other Hay

Harvested Mil Ac 38.2 NC -1.2

Yield Tons/Ac 2.07 -1.0 +2.0

Production Mil Tons 79.2 -1.0 +1.1

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

October 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

October Previous Previous

2015 Forecast Season 

Production 

Sugarcane Mil Tons 31.3 +0.4 +2.9

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 34.8 +0.5 +10.8

All Tobacco Mil Lbs 707 -0.4 -19.4

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

October 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

October Previous Previous

2015 Forecast Season 

Production

Canola Bil Lbs 3.09 NA +23.1

Cottonseed Mil Tons 4.27 -0.7 -16.6

Sunflowers Bil Lbs 2.91 NA +31.3

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

October 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

October Previous Previous

2015 Forecast Season 

Production

Dry Edible Beans Mil Cwt 28.1 -4.0 -3.7

Pecans Mil Lbs 272 NA +3.1

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

10-9-15

Release Date Report Title

October 23 Cattle on Feed

Cotton Ginnings

October 28 USDA Data Users Meeting

October 29 Agricultural Prices 

Rice Stocks 

November 2

CAIR: Cotton

CAIR: Flour Milling

CAIR: Grain Crushings

CAIR: Fats & Oils

November 10 Crop Production

Upcoming Reports
United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

202-720-2127

800-727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov