Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

September 27, 2019

Executive Briefing

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview

September Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period August 31 – September 14

Sample Size 5,167

Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview

Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by class, weight group;

Sows Farrowing; Pig Crop; and Pigs per Litter

September 27, 2019
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Previous 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

March 1, 2019 All Hogs 

and Pigs 74,296 +730+1.0%

+60

+0.1%

+790

+1.1% 75,086

Pig Crop 32,999 +428

+1.3

-100

-0.3%

+328

+1.0% 33,327

June 1, 2019 All Hogs 

and Pigs 75,520 No revision +180+0.2%

+180

+0.2% 75,700

September 27, 2019
U.S. Hogs and Pigs September 1

September 27, 2019

Item 2018 2019 % PY

1,000 head

All Hogs and Pigs 75,136 77,678 103

Breeding Hogs 6,330 6,431 102

Market Hogs 68,806 71,248 104

less than 50 lbs 22,192 22,616 102

50-119 lbs 20,357 20,849 102

120-179 lbs 14,066 14,814 105

180 lbs & over 12,190 12,969 106

Sows Farrowed 3,200 3,179 99

Pig Crop 34,320 35,306 103

Number

Pigs per Litter 10.72 11.11 104

1,000 head

September-November Farrowings 3,174 3,155 99

December-February Farrowings 3,114 3,110 100
U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

2010 - 2019

September 27, 2019

77.7

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Million head

September 1 June 1

75.1

75.7
September 27, 2019

Inventory Down Up No Change

Top Five States Inv.

State Head (1,000)

Iowa 24,900

North Carolina 9,500

Minnesota9,000

Illinois 5,300

Indiana 4,300
Trade Expectations Compared

to NASS Estimates 

Percent of Previous Year

September 27, 2019

100.6

100.6

102.4

103.0

101.3

102.9

99.9

99.4

102.9

103.5

101.6

103.4

98.5 99.5 100.5 101.5 102.5 103.5 104.5

Dec-Feb Farrowings

Sep-Nov Farrowings

Jun-Aug Pig Crop

Market Hogs

Breeding Hogs

All Hogs and Pigs

Min Trade Range Trade Average NASS
All Hogs and Pigs

First Estimate Versus Final Estimate

2010 - 2019

September 27, 2019

59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Million head

ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2010-2020

September 27, 2019

3.179

3.110

3.155

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Million head

Jun-Aug Estimates Sep-Nov Intentions Dec-Feb Intentions
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition and Utilization

September 27, 2019

Year

Jun 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Sep 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2010 5,788 818 800 5,770 51

2011 5,803 848 851 5,806 50

2012 5,862 859 785 5,788 50

2013 5,884 796 728 5,816 49

2014 5,855 751 816 5,920 51

2015 5,926 798 858 5,986 51

2016 5,979 802 839 6,016 51

2017 6,109 828 836 6,117 51

2018 6,320 850 860 6,330 51

2019 6,410 823 844 6,431 50
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2010-2019

September 27, 2019

11.00

10.72

11.11

9.50

9.80

10.10

10.40

10.70

11.00

11.30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Pigs per Litter

June - August March-May
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

September 27, 2019

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs and Corn

September 27, 2019

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Corn $/bu

Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn
Upcoming NASS Reports

Release Date Report Title

September 30 Grain Stocks

Small Grain Summary

October 1 Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Grain Crushings

October 10 Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

October 21 Milk Production

October 25 Cattle on Feed

October 31 Agricultural Prices

September 27, 2019
September 27, 2019

USDA 

Data Users’ Meeting

USDA NASS Data Users’ Meeting

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

American Farm Bureau Federation

600 Maryland Ave SW #1000w

Washington, DC 20024
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 27, 2019