1 

USDA Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

November 15, 2022 

Question and Answer Summary 

Table of Contents

Open Forum: Question and Answer Summary ............................................................................................... 2 

Written Question & Answer Summary ......................................................................................................... 21 

Breakout A: AMS Market News .................................................................................................................... 23 

Breakout B: An Overview of Wheat, Dairy, and Food Price Outlook Data ................................................... 24 

Presentation Slides ....................................................................................................................................... 25 

Question & Answer Summary

The following is a summary of questions and answers from the Data Users’ Meeting. Material is 

organized based on the order they were answered in both the Open Forum and breakout 

sessions. There was not time to answer all questions in all sessions, but any unanswered 

questions were reviewed, and the appropriate agency has provided a written response. Slides 

are appended at the end. 

Note: Questions and answers were lightly edited for readability. 
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Open Forum: Question and Answer Summary

Question: Karen Braun

Did the November WASDE estimates for Ukraine grain exports assume that the Black Sea Grain 

Initiative would end (i.e. not be extended) from Nov. 19? 

Answer: Mike Jewison 

As always, with any given month, the export for Ukraine are based on all the available 

information at the time of publication. 

Question: Karen Braun

Do the November WASDE estimates for 22/23 U.S. corn exports assume the same share (in 

percentage terms) going to China as in 21/22? 

Answer: Mike Jewison 

They do not publish bilateral trade forecasts. 

Question: Karen Braun

How do the latest USDA estimates for China grain/oilseed S&D reflect China’s current policy? 

Are there assumptions that restrictive COVID policy lightens imports/demand in 22/23? 

Answer: Keith Menzie 

Well at least for oilseeds we don't use any explicit assumptions. How we go about forecasting 

the imports at least for soybeans is we make assumptions about what we expect protein 

consumption to be and then back our way into soybean imports from that assumption. Right 

now we are assuming fairly weak growth in protein consumption for 2022-2023. 

Question: Nimai Mehta

I'm researching agricultural land/land use rights and reform in South Asia, and wondering if 

there is anyone in USDA that works in this area - i.e. on the issue of land rights in any part of the 

world. 

Answer: Kelly Maguire 

I'm not aware of research that we have specifically in this area, but I am wondering if perhaps 

FSA might have a response on this and the reporting that we do with regards to foreign 

ownership of land. 

Answer: Mike Walter 

We do collect some of that data, but it is not so much on rights. It is just where the foreign 

interest is in the United States. Send me an email and I would be happy to provide a contact and 

see if that will help you further down the trail. 
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Answer: Patrick Packnett 

We don't have a systematic way of tracking land use rights around the world, but the topic 

comes up in our work and analysis of farm production. I invite the person to reach out to us, if 

there is a specific question about a specific country, we might be able to help or reach out to 

our posts to see if there is anything available. There is nothing cataloged or a systematic way for 

that. 

Answer: Joe Parsons 

I would look at the Asian development bank’s website and there may be an expert there in that 

space; they have a lot of stats and obviously they are interested in this part of the world. 

Something that you might consider. 

Question: Karen Braun

USDA’s estimates for Chinese corn ending stocks have not drastically fluctuated in the last 3-4 

marketing years as is the current market narrative. Why not and what information goes into the 

Chinese corn stock estimates? What is USDA seeing that is keeping these stocks largely 

constant? 

Answer: Mike Jewison 

In the case of China, recall that on the supply side our production estimates are those as 

published, at least in the case of corn for example, by the National Bureau of Statistics and 

when you account for use in the balance sheet the stocks are merely what is left after that. And 

so, in essence, your stocks are largely constrained by the supply assumptions. 

Question: Ken Lovett

For the ESRMS 2.0, will FAS release a meta-data file and/or documentation regarding formatting 

and perhaps correlations between ESRMS and ESRMS 2.0? 

Answer: Patrick Packnett 

We are beefing up engagement with the data users on the export sales report in the new 2.0 

system. In addition to seeking feedback on how users are consuming the data, we will be 

looking to determine what is the best means of providing a preview of the data and the reports 

in the new system in advance so that people have a heads up of how things will look and what is 

going to be included. We're looking at that, I don't have the specific approach that we're going 

to take right now, but I invite you to shoot me an email. We are looking to talk to many users as 

well and we may be able to reach out to you and get some feedback directly. I know that you 

are a regular consumer of the data. 

Question: Bill Nelson

How do I get on the list of users of FAS export data to be involved in feedback on the revised 

reporting system? 
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Answer: Patrick Packnett 

I will offer a couple of suggestions. First, we do have a sign up now on our home page to get the 

Export Sales Report through the GovDelivery system. If you sign up for the ESR reports through 

GovDelivery we will capture your information there and be able to reach out to you. And 

particularly if we get our survey approved, we can send you that. Also, you can send me an 

email as well. 

Question: Ken Lovett

Would the WAOB consider including full balance sheets for Wheat by Class? The complete 

balance sheets are released by ERS in subsequent days, but it would be helpful to see this 

complete information released in the WASDE. 

Answer: Bill Chambers 

That is a very good question and now is the great time to bring it up. Yes, we will consider it. In 

fact, I was emailing with Mark Simone during our short break and it is something that is on his 

radar screen. We can certainly look at it. 

We have done our wheat by class this way for as long as I have been here but it doesn't mean 

that it has to stay this way for ever and ever. If we do make a change, we usually do it in the 

May WASDE. Prior to that release, we will provide an explanation of how the rows and columns 

will appear after any changes are made. 

Question: Marvin Miller

In the handout, it says that NASS published the first Methodology and Quality Measures report 

for Floriculture since 2016. I do not see where to access this on the NASS website 

Answer: Lance Honig 

They are not always the easiest to find if you don't know where to find them. If you go to the 

website and click on Publications you will find one that says Methodology and Quality Measure 

reports. That is where all of these are kept for all the different programs not just floriculture. 

They don't pair up with the release. We are looking to expand the number of 

these reports that we do. If you go back to some of the modernization and even some of the 

web design that we are working towards, I think you will find them much easier to find together 

than what the current structure allows. That is where you would find them now though. Click 

on publications and look for Methodology and Quality Measure reports. 

Floriculture specific Methodology and Quality Measures documents: 

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Methodology_and_Data_Quality/Floriculture/index.p

hp
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Answer: Joe Parsons 

As this type of agency, I think it is important to be transparent and say what you are doing. We 

love to have folks see those and understand how we do these things. 

Question: Jerry Cessna

Does NASS have plans to add any data reporting concerning aquaculture? 

Answer: Travis Averill 

For aquaculture program at NASS, we do the biannual catfish program in January and July and 

the trout survey in January is released in February. We get aquaculture data from the Census of 

Agriculture, that is the platform that drives our Census of Aquaculture program the following 

year. Now pertaining to your question, we have no plans to add any data reporting concerning 

aquaculture outside of the programs that I have mentioned from the three annual programs 

two catfish, one trout along with the Census of Ag and Census of Aquaculture. The Census of 

Aquaculture will be the 2023 reference year. And that will be published most likely in 

December of 2024. 

Question: Karen Braun

With the corn/soy acreage review moved to Sept, will NASS review acreage again in Oct or Nov 

going forward? Or can we expect those assumptions don't change (aside from extraordinary 

circumstances or a special survey). 

Answer: Lance Honig 

We won't consider looking at the acres again in October or November unless there is some sort 

of weather event that creates a need to do that. And in that case, we would do an ASB notice 

ahead of time. Unless you see otherwise, assume that September is the month that we lock the 

planted acres in. 

Question: Jacqueline Holland

Is ERS planning on publishing any reports about the carbon/sustainability benefits provided by 

food/livestock production? 

Answer: Kelly Maguire 

We have a few things that have been recently published as well as a couple of things on the 

horizon. I would encourage you to go to the ERS website and the easiest way to find it is going 

to the publications and a drop down and then you can search for everything that we've done 

related to climate change. But I will highlight a couple for you. Very recently there was a report 

of rotational grazing and then in addition there are a few reports that will be out in probably the 

next 6-month or so looking at cover crops and soil health benefits that I think you might find of 

interest as well. But really to get the complete look of what we are doing in the climate space I 

would encourage you to go to the publications and sort into climate change on the website. 
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Answer: Joe Parsons 

Although it is not economic data, I would say that our friends at ARS who is not represented 

here will be publishing quite a bit of scientific data around this space. 

Answer: Bill Chambers 

The Office of the Chief Economist has a team of people looking at climate as well. 

Question: Bevan Everett

Why is equity being incorporated into statistical work? 

Answer: Spiro Stefanou 

It is important to ensure that the people's department, USDA, is serving all the people in the 

United States. And ensuring our data, research, and analysis is reflective of the entire 

population. That is essential. I mentioned some activities on equity that we are working on in 

terms of workforce and professional development. We also have research going on. We have 

work on land access and growth opportunities for beginning and socially disadvantaged farmers 

and ranchers, a report that we are doing annually. And we are doing some workg on heirs’ 

property and land access. Also, climate change related to equity: Who is going to be hurt or 

benefit from climate change? Or who is going to be hurt worse from climate change? These are 

topics that we are exploring as well. There are also household food access related issues related 

to climate and rural America and the vitality of rural areas in terms of equity. We also just stood 

up a new data product that is looking at the persistence of poverty in rural communities across 

the United States and across all census tracts. Lastly, we are putting on a conference jointly with 

the National Bureau of Economic Research that is looking at the consequences of climate 

change and how it operates through the ag sector especially on equity and topics of justice and 

distributional and environmental justice. 

Answer: Joe Parsons 

The census is a huge workhorse for us to answer many questions across a wide plethora of 

topics and this describes the “who” and it can be cross tabulated with ‘Do folks participate in 

crop insurance?’, ‘Do they participate in rotational grazing?’, or whatever program participation 

it may me. So, there are a lot of stakeholders and those that deliver programs and those on the 

Hill that are very interested in how those things are delivered to all farms, large, small, limited 

resources, etc., so the Census of Agriculture helps to address those questions that come from a 

district slice of our stakeholders. The ARMS survey, we conduct that jointly with ERS, and there 

is a panel that we're working on to be able to address some of those questions within a subset 

of the ARMS sample in the coming year. 
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Answer: Mark Brusberg 

Just to underscore what Spiro said, a lot of times we don't know that some of these 

communities don't have the data or products to inform decision making. It was only a couple of 

years ago that the US Drought Monitor had sufficient data in Tribal areas and in our island 

areas, US Virgin Islands and Affiliated Pacific Islands until then there was not data sufficient to 

allow FSA to automatically trigger relief in times of drought to those communities. I think a lot 

of people take for granted that everybody shares equally in some of the services that the 

“People's Department” produces, and they don't. So that is why we have to keep a watchful eye 

over who has capability and who we think has the capacity, but maybe in reality does not. 

Question: Pre-submitted question

Where can I find data about Federal crop insurance performance including liabilities, premiums, 

and losses? 

Answer: Michael Hibbs 

I can briefly walk you through how to access this in a step by step way from the Risk 

Management Agency website. There are email addresses along the way if there are questions. 

We’re happy to answer anything that you might send. Near the top of that website there is a 

section of drop downs and one is called Tools. That is where you will find the applications and 

tools available. For this particular question, I would point the user to the Summary of Business 

section. After selecting that, you will see several pre-generated reports. One-page reports on 

crop insurance and you will find a link to the application called Summary of Business about 

midway down the page that can actually be used for more customizable data reports. To the 

bottom right of that same page, you can find links under Summary of Business which can take 

you do downloadable data files for things like claims data, livestock participation, and other 

data file that is you might be interested in, and all of these do show liabilities, premiums and 

losses. Again, email if you need help along the way navigating the website. 

Question: Peter Meyer

Finding accurate double-crop soybean acreage data currently requires a deep dive into the FSA 

data since there are no revisions to the number after the June Acreage report. Would it be 

possible to add a “double crop question” to the January Crop Production report survey? 

Answer: Lance Honig 

I can answer it really short and say yes, it is always possible we can do that. And it is a good 

question and something that we will take a look back at it. It is too late for this iteration; it 

would require an additional question on the December Ag survey which is fixing to go into the 

mail in the next couple of weeks. We will consider this for next year and it is on our radar and 

we should have a pretty good answer for you by the next data users meeting in the spring. 
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Question: Pre-submitted question

Does RMA publish insurance offer information such as yields, prices, and premium rates? Can 

the information be downloaded in a user-friendly format like Excel? 

Answer: Ryan Seely 

On the normal Risk Management Agency webpage, just go to Tools, and then go to RMA 

Information Reporting System. From there, you can click on Insurance Offer Reports. It will give 

a whole list of offer dates, prices, options, and everything you need to just go through and 

select and download all of our information. So, if you click on insurance offer prices it will then 

ask you what year you want, the insurance plan, state, and county. You can generate an excel 

spreadsheet from there and that should give you all the information in one downloadable 

format. 

Question: Ken Lovett

Regarding the Crop Acreage Data reporting, could there be a more timely and consistent release 

of the data at 12:00 EST? 

Answer: Mike Walter 

We had a little slip up on how we released and we did it ahead of time. We mentioned 

automating it into a dashboard so we don't love how we do that today either and we are 

definitely looking at process improvements so as we rollout the publication dashboard I think it 

would be a great time to look at the time we do it and the frequency that we do it as well. Can't 

make any promises but it is definitely something on the radar that we are looking to make 

better. 

Question: Jerry Gidel

The change to updating US planting and harvesting acres to Sept has shown some big changes. 

Overall, total Us ag acres seems to be shrinking more than expected. Any ideas why there has 

been a big difference between NASS and FSA acreage data? 

Answer: Lance Honig 

I don't think it has anything to do with the October versus September time frame, I think the 

question is why have we seen bigger changes later in the season? And then part two of that is 

why do we see slightly smaller differences between NASS and FSA than we have seen in recent 

years? There are a couple of different answers to those questions, first in terms of the bigger 

changes throughout the season. The last couple of years we have seen some bigger swings in 

the acres from March to June and even to the end of the season. I think that has to do with 

changes that the farmers have made and so there was planting later and then some of it we're 

looking at it as well. It is not just corn or soybeans we look at it for every crop every year. 

When we see larger changes throughout the season we go back and make sure that there is 

nothing inherent in our processes that could be contributing and at this time we have not found 
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anything on our side. That doesn't mean that we are not continuing to look and seeing if 

anything that we are doing procedurally could be improved upon. As far as difference in the 

NASS and FSA acres? We have made a concerted effort over the last couple of years to shrink 

that difference to analyze the data of what we get from FSA and comparing it to what we are 

doing. There is more work to be done there, it is hard to know what you don't know. It is a 

difficult piece to measure and some of the work that we have done has shown us that there is a 

bit less of the acreage that doesn't get reported to FSA than what we believe we've seen in the 

past. I can't tell you 100% that it is necessary changed as much as it is we have a better ability to 

measure it. And we have made an intentional decision to show a little bit tighter relationship 

between the FSA acres and NASS because of the measures that we have seen that show there is 

less unreported acres than what we saw in the past. We'll continue to do everything that we 

can moving forward if there is more tools and data available. Whatever it is, that is one of those 

topics that we are very interested in as well as trying to figure out how to measure that portion 

specifically that isn't being reported to FSA. 

Answer: Joe Parsons 

I am keenly interested in that gap between final reported data and where we're at. And there 

has been some good work done, looking almost field by field in some cases from some imagery 

and such. And I think as Lance stated anytime that we wind up making a pretty big change we 

go back and the question that we ask ourselves is whether we missed something. Is there 

something available to us that when we took the original decision that we should or could have 

seen? I think that is logical. 

Question: Jessica Richard

Can you detail the cattle contract development a bit more? 

Answer: Jason Karwal 

“A bit” is probably a good word to put because we can't share too much because currently there 

is regulation being drafted that is going to be published that will have all the details of this so 

we don't know them all yet. What we do know is we've been tasked with creating an interface 

for users to look at examples of cattle contracts being used to trade cattle across the country. 

We use the current swine library that the packers and stock yards has put together, but we will 

do it in more of a dashboard style and make it easier to find specific data points in there. While 

we do expect the final product to be fall of next year, we are going to release a pilot in the 

January/February 2023 timeframe and keep an eye out for when that will be up and available to 

view. It is a newer project that is in the works now, but we are hoping to have a good product 

sometime next year. 

Question: Kristina Jones

Are there any plans to release data on renewable diesel exports out of the US? Either via EIA or 

GATS would be fantastic, especially as the industry grows. Are there any plans from EIA to split 

out feedstock by RD and biodiesel producers? Now it is currently clumped together. 
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Answer: Julie Harris 

The short answer to both is not at the moment. So, I'll take them separately. But the issue with 

the export data is that we actually don't collect the export data here at EIA, we get it from the 

Census Bureau, and they don't have a separate code for renewable diesel. And that is how we 

map it. So not right now. Because we don't really have the ability to do it. 

On the second question splitting out the feed stock because of the plant types, that is also 

something that we can't do at the moment. We have to do a disclosure analysis on the data, 

and we can't publish them if they disclose data for individual companies. But as the renewable 

diesel market is growing, that issue hopefully will be alleviated, and we will be able to start 

publishing the feed stock data separately by plant type. We are going to keep an eye on that 

and as more players get into that market. Then that won't be a such an issue anymore. 

Question: Joe Parsons

Renewable fuels and biodiesel producers have stocks of soyoil on hand and there is an 

assumption by analysts that they will use it immediately for producing fuel. But they may also 

store soyoil. The fluctuation of how much soyoil they have stored is of interest to some analysts. 

Would EIA consider collecting stored soyoil stocks from these biofuel producers? 

Answer: Julie Harris 

That is not on the table right now, but we can certainly take that back to management and say 

that there is industry interest in that information. 

Question: Jerry Cessna

Does Census have plans to make data on MONTHLY shipments to Puerto Rico and other U.S. 

territories available for free in the near future? 

Answer: Post-meeting follow-up from Joe DeCampo 

There are currently no plans to publish that data beyond annually. 

Question: Michael Zuzolo

Given the current global environment, in the upcoming MY, does USDA plan to formulate S/D 

statistics for China & Russia separate & independent from official Chinese & Russian Agr. 

Ministries? Or some type of additional scrutiny, such as greater weight to attaché reports? 

Answer: Bill Chambers 

I'm not aware that our Chairs are considering changing their methods. We don't have to take 

official data from either China or Russia or anywhere else. Our method is to take all the 

information that is available to us and come up with the best estimate that we can with that 

information. We understand that some of the data we get out of certain countries may be less 

than perfect. 
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Question: Bill Nelson

With respect to the experience of the failed August exports sales update, it was difficult to find 

the new FAS pathway to the reports. I was contacted by multiple colleagues as to where to find 

the data. Can you simply make that process easier when you eventually go to the new version? 

Like an obvious link on the FAS homepage? 

Answer: Patrick Packnett 

There was some confusion. We didn't handle that in the best way that we could. When we go 

out with the new system again, we will make sure that it is clear and with direct links. 

Question: Bill Nelson

FAS export sales report - Will you maintain the complete set of archived weekly data in the next 

version? I may not have seen it correctly, but my brief look in the failed August update was a set 

of data not back to 1990. 

Answer: Patrick Packnett 

Yes, if I'm not mistaken, when we rolled out the system we might have cut the data off because 

of time and resources to be able to get all the older data archived, but when we go out with the 

new system, we will have all the archived data. 

Question: Allie de Irueste

What changes should we expect to see on the replacement to the SJ_LS711 report? Will this 

new reporting process mean that the actual daily slaughter values will be posted earlier? 

Answer: Jason Karwal 

The data it is on the report will not change much. The base data will be the same. The report 

will be in PDF format, but the main change is that the data will be available through the Market 

News and also the API. That is the goal of moving it to the other system. There will be some 

additional stats like the year ago or other things that we don't currently publish. As far as the 

daily report I assume that you are referring to the estimated daily slaughter and we are already 

putting that out as we have it. We know that is a sought-out data and there is still quite a bit of 

manual data collection in the morning. It takes a few hours to put that together every day and it 

is released as soon as we have it available. So, I don't think we'll see that any earlier once it is in 

the new system. 

Question: Bill Nelson

One of the ERS slides showed the baseline report. Are there changes coming to the baseline? 

Answer: Post-meeting follow-up from Kelly Maguire 

The baseline is always updated once per year to reflect the policy changes or major market 

changes that happen within the prior year; that process occurred in October and was reflected 

in the numbers that were released on November 7. The next official update will not occur until 
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October 2023 and would, for instance, include information on capacity changes in Ukraine and 

any other market and policy developments that happen between now and then. In February 

2023, the complete report will be released including international projections along with 

descriptive text, but this information is also based only on the conditions that existed at the 

time the October WASDE was released. I am assuming that is what the question was about and 

that is an example of what will be included in the next baseline. 

The baseline reflects the condition, it is just that. It is a view static view of what the world was, 

and, in this case, it will be 2022. 

Answer: Bill Chambers 

We have to be very careful how we use the baseline. Note that it is not an official forecast. Also, 

an important purpose of the baseline is for the President’s budget and an important assumption 

we make is policy in place. We don't make policy projections (particularly domestic policy) or 

try to forecast policy changes that may or may not happen. This is done for a lot of reasons one 

of which is it would lead to incorrectly accounting for that policy in the budget. 

Question: Bevan Everett

The GATS used to have a UN database option in it up until this year. Why was its separated off 

and where can one find that data today? 

Answer: Patrick Packnett 

UN Comtrade changed its data interface and as a result the system that we used to incorporate 

the Comtrade data in GATS no longer functions. We have been working with our IT staff to 

restore access within GATS. At the moment we don't have an expected timeline of when that 

will be done. Here’s the link for the direct access to the data. 

Question: Karen Braun

U.S. export inspection data has recently been delayed multiple times due to technical issues. 

How come? Is this an ongoing problem? 

Answer: Post-meeting follow-up from Jason Karwal 

The Federal Grain Inspection Data has been delayed in release several times lately. The data 

that USDA receives on this has been delayed in being reported due to logistical issues at the 

source. AMS is working on improving this process moving forward. 

Question: Karl Skold

USDA-AMS is increasing moving to PDF files for quick access to reports. Why? Please keep text 

files. For example, actual slaughter is moving to a PDF. 
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Answer: Jason Karwal 

This is something that we have been working on for a few years. We made the consolidated 

decision a few years ago to switch the format from .txt files to the PDF. For several reasons, we 

don't have the capability to support those files anymore, we have to do several conversions to 

get anything we are putting out in text back to that and it is fairly expensive and inefficient for 

us. And everything going forward will be in the PDF formats for the reports. As we switch them, 

we try to make sure that they are available in other formats, I know there are a lot of people 

that come in and pull the data off to the text files and scrape that and that has been a long-time 

process for a lot of users. We understand there is an inconvenience there and it is really the 

only way that we can do it going forward. 

We have the data available in several different formats, including the API, to get the data 

without having to pull it off the PDF report. They can reach out to me or on the website there 

are ways to submit questions as well. 

Question: Erik Daniel Guerra Rodriguez

Are there any possibilities you could add White corn information (production, exports) etc. 

Answer: Lance Honig 

That probably would be a pretty big lift for us at NASS. We would have to collect a lot more 

information to break the corn data down by in this case color or other types. I am curious, I 

don't remember offhand but I think FSA in their 578 data has a breakout for that, there would 

be acres information there. And there may be some RMA data as well in their Book of Business. 

You know there is a little different use case and it might be a little different insurance product 

too. So those are two spots. 

Answer: Patrick Packnett 

For the export data, essentially, we show what we get from the Census Bureau. In terms of our 

foreign supply demand data (PSD) I don't think we have resources or capacity to break out 

white corn. 

Answer: Mike Jewison 

I would just add if you go to the ten digit level, you can find white corn export on Census. For 

the U.S. that is. 

Written Answer: Patrick Packnett

Here's the White Corn export code for the US. 1005904055 - CORN,WHITE,EX SD 

Answer: Post meeting follow-up from Patrick Packnett 

It may also be worth noting that while there isn't an internationally harmonized HS 6-digit level 

code for white corn, depending on the export market of interest, some other countries (in 
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particular Mexico and those in Central America) have import codes designating white corn at 

the HS8 or HS10 digit level. 

Question: Joe Kleinman

What is the USDA doing on an overall and agency level to fix the data dissemination and 

reliability issues that have become endemic over the past few months? We have seen the 

failure of the launch of FAS ESR 2.0 launch, multiple instances where AMS data has been 

delayed by "technical difficulties", inconsistent access and delayed release of NASS and WASDE 

releases as the USDA webservers seem to be unable to handle the volume of user activity 

during midday releases, etc, etc. 

Answer: Patrick Packnett 

I don't think these incidents are related any way. Our ESR launch was isolated and not driven by 

any of the same issues that the reports and other items mentioned in the question. We are 

working to ensure a successful launch of our ESR 2.0, as I described earlier, the next rollout will 

certainly be a lot better. 

Answer: Bill Chambers 

There have not been any delays in the WASDE release over the last few months. Still, we have 

increased our in-house technical support in the lockup itself. It has been a little while, we 

started around maybe in the spring. But we have increased our tech presence in lockup to make 

sure there are no problems. 

Answer: Lance Honig 

When you are talking about NASS and WASDE delays, I think what you are referring to is at least 

the expectation is within one or 2 seconds. We have had occasions where it has been four or 5 

seconds or maybe even 10 seconds and things of that nature. The thing that I would just remind 

folks of and certainly we are doing everything that we can to keep that at the smallest amount 

possible, but the one thing that I will remind folks of even when that occurs it is still providing 

equal access because everybody is still having an opportunity at the same time. And then the 

other issues that we sometimes run into is there are multiple places where these reports are 

archived right now as well. And so specifically for the NASS reports, if you go to the website we 

always have a section called Today's Reports and that link that is provided there actually links to 

a different storage location than if you go through the publications tab and that will link you to 

a site out on Cornell. There have been occasions where one file is available a little sooner than 

the other and things of that nature. We know about that, and we are doing everything that we 

can to mitigate that. And again, I hate to keep going back to it, but part of the modernization is 

to get away from this archaic way of having this available in multiple locations out there on our 

own website. 

Question: Karl Skold

Is it possible to move weekly imports for meat products to the datamart? 
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Answer: Jason Karwal 

We do currently separate them between mandatory and voluntary and datamart is the platform 

that we lease the mandatory data. And that is a voluntary report and we do plan to bring it into 

the market news platform and I do not currently have a date for when that will happen. For 

most reports like that we do have data sets available that we can share with you if you wanted 

to reach out directly to me or through the contacts on the websites we can try to get 

information for you if you're just trying to get the data for that report series. 

Question: AL Anderson-Lazo

When will there be an update on Tenure, Ownership, and Transition of Agricultural Land Survey, 

and are there other places (and publications) to find more recent data? 

Answer: Tony Dorn 

For the TOTAL survey, or land ownership, the last TOTAL was done in 2014 and the release was 

in 2015 and the next one is scheduled for to 2025 release based on the 2024 reference year. 

Just keep in mind there are two components. Farmers can be landlords and there is a landlord 

piece too where we get information from landlords who can be individuals, partners, trusts and 

all sorts of arrangements can be landlords so that really makes an extra effort for us to go out 

and survey and collect the data. So that will be the next information that I will have available in 

2025. I'm not too sure of other information, I know there is some local information possibly 

with state departments of agriculture in the State level and there might be local information 

and I don't have anything specific. 

Answer: Joe Parsons 

We know the data are really valuable. They can be challenging to collect because we are going 

to at least a fragment of the population that we don't typically go to and there are a number of 

landlords for which maybe they are aged or pretty hands off etc. It can be a challenge to 

actually collect this data. But it is of great interest. One other thought that I had although I 

don't think it would tell you much about transition states. But there are private data from core 

logic that you may be able to understand some transactional data. 

Question: Bevan Everett

The AMS did a report on the Transportation of US Grains back in 2017 with modal share analysis 

as of 2014. The CME is doing a review of the delivery system and how the grain belt has 

changed. For those who are contributing to the update, it would be helpful if the AMS could 

update that with the current year. 

Answer: Post-meeting follow-up from Jason Karwal 

We do have our grain modal share report. The PDF versions are here: 

https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/transportation-analysis/modal, and we also post the data 

to our open data platform, here: https://agtransport.usda.gov/stories/s/n6aq-hd3y. The latest 
16 

data is through 2019. We’re working on 2020 at the moment and should have it out in the next 

month or two. The data is very slow to come out. We only got the 2020 data toward the end of 

this summer and have just been trying to find time to draft the report since then. 

Answer: Post-meeting follow-up from Joe Parsons 

We had a reimbursable agreement in cooperation with USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service 

(AMS) and the North Dakota State University’s Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute to 

better understand local grain transportation market flows and the investments made by those 

producers in a set group of states, but it has been a while. Here’s a link to their 2015 report. 

Question: Hussain Jiwani

The corn county level yields are released in January. Are there any plans to release the county 

level yield on monthly basis when the state level yields are released? 

Answer: Lance Honig 

They are not released until late February, and we don't have any plans to do it any more 

frequently. In order to publish all the way down to the county level you have to collect a much 

larger pool of data which means much higher burden on producers and so for that reason in 

particular we don't have any immediate plans to do that. One thing that I would say though is if 

you look in the briefing slides that we provide following the crop production reports during the 

growing season we typically include a map for both corn and soybeans that show the modelled 

numbers using remote sensing information. It is a graphic image, a map that shows for the key 

growing area kind of how the yields are distributed. It is certainly not county level yields, I'm 

not suggesting that it is, but it is a product that gives a visual of how they are distributed across 

the key growing area for corn and soybeans. 

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/2022/11-09-2022.pdf

See pages 9 & 19 of the above link for the modeled yield maps. 

Question: Megan Scott

I realize you are modernizing the NASS Quick Stats interface, but the "Keyword Search" has 

gone missing. Any chance this will be reinstated? 

Answer: Lance Honig 

Hopefully. I can tell you as a part of modernization effort we have been moving both the 

database and applications to more modern style servers including some cloud applications and 

when you do that some of these what we would call legacy applications, they don't like to talk 

to each other well. And we have had some bumps with trying to keep everything up and going 

as we go through the transition. Be patient with us as we get there, we are doing everything 

that we can to keep it going in this hybrid environment as we transition through the process. 

Specifically on the key word search I will have to go back and double check. 
17 

Answer: Post-meeting follow-up from Lance Honig 

Update: NASS does plan to re-enable the keyword search functionality as soon as possible. 

Question: Karen Braun

USDA's Ukraine grain S&D estimates still include Crimea, correct? Does that mean that Crimea 

and other occupied territories are not being considered in USDA's Russian estimates? 

Answer: Bill Chambers 

You are correct. We continue to include Crimea as a part of the Ukraine. This is also true for 

other parts of the occupied territories. We follow the State Department's lead on this. That is 

how we do it, yes. 

Question: Al Anderson-Lazo

Is there an equity series of publications, what’s the best way to find them? Also, we are 

especially interested in data on outreach and TA, I heard earlier that AMS collects related data, 

might we hear more about this across this and other census areas? 

Answer: Kelly Maguire 

My suggestion for ERS information would be the Trending Topics page on the ERS website and 

there is a specific page talking about the work that we have been doing on equity. So that will 

point you to research, data, topic pages and such. So that is the best place to find a consolidated 

set of information related to equity. 

Answer: Joe Parsons 

One thing that I was thinking of and I may have the nature of this question off a little bit. 

Whenever AMS or others, for example, might be doing rule making, you go out for public 

comment in the Federal Register. Then I think you produce a record of what sort of outreach 

and responses you got. Is that true? I think I need to know a little more about the question. 

Obviously, we do our version of outreach like for the Census of Agriculture would be to reach 

out to all types of groups and commodity organizations and others to spread the word and the 

importance of the data collection. I'm not sure if that is the nature the question though. 

Answer: Post meeting follow-up from Jason Karwal 

USDA’s ongoing efforts regarding equity, underserved stakeholders, public outreach and 

technical assistance are summarized in the “USDA Agri-Food Supply Chain Assessment: 

Program and Policy Options for Strengthening Resilience” published by AMS. 

Question: Rob Murphy

Mandatory price reporting for pork seems to be plagued by routine late release of reports due 

to “packer submission problems”. Why does this happen so frequently and what is the plan to 

rectify it? 
18 

Answer: Jason Karwal 

We do have over 50 plants that are submitting hog and pork data, about 20,000 lines of data 

per day in total, to us six times a day at four different deadlines for which we have an hour to 

turn around a report. We have to include all data that is submitted. We reached out to industry 

a few years ago and asked them how they want us to handle these situations and they 

unilaterally agreed they want us to wait until all data is received and verified for accuracy to 

ensure a complete picture of the marketplace and avoid revisions and that is the path that we 

try to follow. We do try to work with the packers to make sure that everything is working 

correctly. Many issues involve system infrastructure, labor, mechanical challenges, and weather 

among various others. But with security these days and updates that happen daily between our 

systems and their systems problems come up that we try to rectify as soon as we can. Most of 

the time it is just us making sure that we have all the data available before we publish the 

reports so that they are complete the first time. And it is just you know with that many plants 

reporting that many times a day it leaves a lot of room for error, and we are really trying to 

make sure that data is complete before we put it out, that is probably the best answer that I can 

give. 

Question: Julie Ingwersen

Can you clarify conflicting corn production estimates in a USDA/FAS GAIN report from Kyiv 

released Nov. 9? The report's "Production" section says "FAS Kyiv estimates the following 

production numbers for MY2022/23: barley – 5.9 MMT, corn – 21.2 MMT, wheat – 19.6 MMT, 

and rye – 336,000 MT." BUT the report's S&D table shows "New Post's" 22/23 corn production 

estimate at 25.8 MMT, and USDA's official number of 31.5 MMT. How big a cut is the Post 

projecting: 25.8, or 21.2? The report is here: https://bit.ly/3X3kWb9 

Answer: Patrick Packnett 

I'll start since this is an FAS report. There was an error in the text of that report. And I would just 

confirm that the correct number is in the table at 25.8. And I will also note that this report 

came in after or was released after the WASDE report so I think we will be taking a look at this 

report and making any adjustments that might be necessary in the December WASDE. 

Answer: Bill Chambers 

Just one small comment. We value the GAIN reports, but they don't necessarily make it into the 

official WASDE estimates. They will sometimes differ. Official USDA data are in the WASDE 

report and the PSD database. 

Question: Steven Schuetz

Where can I find the methodology that NASS uses to generate the “NASA Terra MODIS Modeled 

Yield” that is mentioned in the NASS Executive Summary/Monthly Briefing. 
19 

Answer: Lance Honig 

There’s a nice paper that was written by the team that produces that. I think you will find that 

to be helpful. It probably has the best detail explaining the process that I have seen. 

Question: Andrew Mattheis

Are there projects/programs to get groundwater data for trying to improve the quality of the 

groundwater for us, livestock and agriculture? Especially in poor groundwater areas. Is the data 

helping with projects if yes? 

Answer: Kelly Maguire 

I don't think this is perhaps exactly what they're asking about but the Survey of Irrigation 

Organizations is what comes to mind as information. This is a survey that was done a few years 

ago with ERS and NASS and it is looking at how the water is managed, looking at both 

groundwater and surface water. 

Answer: Joe Parsons 

There are some state-level departments of natural resources that have pretty extensive 

reporting about well head levels and some things. And in addition, NASS publishes the 

Irrigation and Water Management Survey. There are some states, especially I'm thinking along 

the Great Plains that have quite a bit of data about groundwater and the state of California has 

extensive reporting I know. 

Question: Lacey Holland

For Export Sales, will the new data format be shown far in advance, so we have time to change 

our processes? Could both processes run in tandem for a period of time? 

Answer: Patrick Packnett 

We will find an appropriate way to preview the data formats before we release them officially 

when we cut over to the new system. In terms of running both systems in tandem, I'm not sure 

that is something that we can do. We get all the data from the exporters and it’s quite a burden 

for them to provide the information and I think we want to avoid asking them to report the data 

into two different systems. And of course, the output reports come from the data that we 

collect in the same system from the reporters. However, we will be taking a look at all options 

as we move forward with the new system. 

Question: Jerry Gidel

The current yield trend in the baseline seems not to update its trend numbers given the past 

few years. A jump from 172 to 181 bushels U.S. corn yield for 2023 seems very unusual. I heard 

your general reply but updating data trends seem also appropriate. 
20 

Answer: Bill Chambers 

I have done a lot of trends and where you start the trend and where you end it has a big impact 

on what the final number is. I am confident that the trend was updated. Trends with different 

starting and ending points can give very different answers. 

Answer: Mike Jewison 

For the baseline, it is not a forecast. It is not a forecast of what we think is going to happen in 

the future. So please don't treat it that way. Bill already outlined exactly what the purposes of 

the baseline are. I wanted to get that out there. 

The yield that we use in the baseline is still based on the work that I did with Paul Westcott back 

in 2012 now I think it was. Almost 10 years ago. We re-estimate that and update the coefficient 

as it is noted in the WASDE every year and it is essentially the same methodology for corn. 

Question: Joe Kleinman

Is it possible for NASS to update silage area and production during the season as opposed to just 

at season end? 

Answer: Lance Honig 

That is another item that I will add to my list of things to go back and look into. I will remind 

folks that following every Census of Agriculture, NASS goes back and does a complete program 

review, such as which commodities and which states are included. And also, it will be an 

opportunity to look at issues like this and any others like it. And so there will be some more 

feedback coming on that following the Census as well. We'll take a look at this. 

 
21 

Written Question & Answer Summary 

Question: Allie de Irueste

When should we expect to see this year's Brazilian Livestock and Poultry GAINS report? It is 

normally published every August, but we have not seen it this year. 

Written Answer: Name 

The Brazilian Livestock report was published in October: 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Lives

tock%20and%20Products%20Annual_Brasilia_Brazil_BR2022-0054

The Brazilian Poultry report was published in September: 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Poult

ry%20and%20Products%20Annual_Brasilia_Brazil_BR2022-0051

Question: Jacqueline Holland

Are there any plans to publish another fertilizer use and price report, similar to the one last 

published by ERS in 2019? 

Written Answer: Kelly Maguire 

ERS has a data product on Fertilizer Use and Prices. We try to keep the data as up to date as 

possible. We can look into the feasibility of providing more recent data. 

Question: Bevan Everett

Is the WASDE committee consulting the Wes-Jewison model for developing the model yield for 

the Feb Ag forum and the May WASDE? It appears there was a divergence this year. 

Written Answer: Mike Jewison 

For the Agricultural Outlook Forum and WASDE the yield methodology will be noted either in 

the footnote section of the corn balance sheet table or in the discussion text. In the May 2022 

WASDE in the footnote of the corn balance sheet table on page 12 it states: ““The yield 

projection is based on a weather-adjusted trend, estimated using the 1988-2021 time period, 

assuming normal summer growing season weather but lowered to reflect the slow pace of 

planting progress as of early May.” 

Question: Hussain Jiwani

Where can I find the methodology for NDVI corn yield model that USDA is using to estimate 

corn yield? 

Written Answer: Lance Honig 

There’s a nice paper that was written by the team that produces that. I think you will find that 

to be helpful. It probably has the best detail explaining the process that I have seen. 
22 

Question: Jacqueline Holland

What years are used to calculate the trendline yields for corn? Or where should I look online to 

find that info? 

Written Answer: Mike Jewison 

The estimation period used is noted in the footnote section of the corn balance sheet table in 

the WASDE. For example, in the May 2022 WASDE on page 12 the footnote reads: “The yield 

projection is based on a weather-adjusted trend, estimated using the 1988-2021 time period, 

assuming normal summer growing season weather but lowered to reflect the slow pace of 

planting progress as of early May.” 

Question: Joe Kleinman

Could WAOB publish the coefficients used each year in the Wescott-Jewison model? Either on a 

historical basis or an ongoing basis. 

Written Answer: Mike Jewison 

The data used for the model can be found via NASS quickstats and the National Center for 

Environmental Information: 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series

A detailed explanation of the methodology can be found here: 

https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=36652 

Question: Dale Durcholz

Back in the middle 1990s, some researchers in USDA did a study on NASS's corn production 

estimate (Wang comes to mind as one of the people involved). Has there been any thought to 

doing an updated study? I learned of this study from a farmdoc article a few years ago. It goes 

a long way to helping users understand how you do what you do, and the estimates that are 

released. 

Written Answer: Lance Honig 

There isn’t anything specific planned right now, but we will give it some consideration. 

 
23 

Breakout A: AMS Market News

Question: Jeff Koenig

Do you think there may be other trade leakages considering what was found on the garden 

crops? “Trade leakages” means not capturing HTS codes. 

Answer: Patty Willkie 

It was the differences in the 33 commodities of the NAPCO program for the Cognos disposition 

codes. We are now capturing everything with Ace and the HTS codes. So, it's one hundred 

percent reporting. If it’s being entered into Ace with an HTS code, we're pulling it out of Ace. 

We created codes in the large commodities. We’ve pulled out added HTS codes for cilantro, 

things that are hidden, if there's enough to justify it adding a code. Right now, I don't have 

enough parsnips to do it. Parsnips are low on the totem pole but some of the other things are 

being pulled out. There is a link on the Market News portal of the new HTS codes that have 

been created. All the codes that have been created will be updated on the Market news portal 

twice a year, in January and July of every year. I have an email distribution list that I email out 

twice a year. You can email me your email to be added. Also, there are various emails going 

around with different import broker associations, so you can be kept apprised of the new HTS 

codes to use. We can definitely keep you informed of the new codes. 

They weren’t capturing the HTS codes. It was just the produce they were inspecting for APHIS. 

It’s two different programs. 

Question: Jason Carver

Regarding the creation of the 31 new HS forthcoming with January data released in March, do 

those breakouts also include Export codes or only import? 

Answer: Patty Willkie 

They are separate codes. I think export codes are called schedule B export codes, I'm not 

working with those. I've not really looked at those. It's a different set because those are 

considered technically in Market News's purview as domestic shipments because we track them 

domestically. But there are schedule B export codes and those can be found on the 

International Trade Commission’s website. 

Question: James Campbell

Is there an update on Chicken API? Slug 3646. 

Answer: Jason Karwal 

We are seeing the current chicken prices through the API and have been for a few weeks now, 

but I’m not sure which chicken report you're referring to? Slug 3646 is available through the 

API. If you are having issues getting that one, please reach out to us. 
24 

Breakout B: An Overview of Wheat, Dairy, and Food Price Outlook Data

Question: Karen Braun

Could someone drop a link to this ERS wheat data charting? 

Written Answer: Molly Burress 

The wheat data is located here: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data/. 

Documentation is available here: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheatdata/documentation/. The visualization Andrew mentioned is forthcoming. If you would like to 

send Bryn and Molly your email address, we can send you a notification when the Wheat Data 

visualization releases. Molly.Burress@usda.gov; Bryn.Swearingen@usda.gov

Question: Chris Eggerman

How do you allocate food use among classes of wheat? 

Answer: Andrew Sowell 

The basic allocations as you may know, the tables provide the food use for all wheat and durum. 

The question is how do we allocate the other four classes? It basically comes down to expert 

judgment on a quarterly basis. It's a combination of having some industry contacts that we 

check against as well as our own research into price differentials and what we think is 

happening in the market regarding that. 
25 

Presentation Slides

Following this page are the slides presented during the Data Users’ Meeting. 

 Agency Updates 

 Breakout Session A: AMS Market News 

 Breakout Session B: An Overview of Wheat, Dairy, and Food Price Outlook Data 
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

2022 

USDA Fall Data Users’ Meeting

November 15, 2022

Joe Parsons

Chair, Agricultural Statistics Board
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

• Closed captioning available through the 

Closed Caption button in Zoom. 

• All sessions will be recorded and available on our website: 

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Meeting/index.php

• Slides and transcript of Q&A with any additional questions 

we don’t have time to answer will be available on our 

website after the meeting.

Housekeeping
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

Questions/Issues

Q&A – Questions will be answered live during Open Forum

Chat – Technical Issues

Email - Marisa.Reuber@usda.gov or Vincent.Davis@usda.gov
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

Agenda

12:00pm Welcome and Overview

12:10pm Agency Updates

12:50pm Break

1:00pm Open Forum

2:20pm Break

2:30pm Breakout Session 

3:30pm End

All Times Eastern
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

Breakout Session

All times Eastern Session A Session B

2:30 p.m. AMS Market News

Agricultural Marketing Service

An Overview of Wheat, Dairy, and Food 

Price Outlook Data 

Economic Research Service
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

• Patrick Packnett, Foreign Agricultural Service 

• Bill Chambers, World Agricultural Outlook Board 

• Lance Honig, National Agricultural Statistics Service 

• Kelly Maguire, Economic Research Service 

• Mike Walter, Farm Service Agency 

• Jason Karwal, Agricultural Marketing Service 

• Joseph DeCampo, U.S. Census Bureau 

Panelists
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

Foreign Agricultural Service

Patrick Packnett

Deputy Administrator

Global Market Analysis
Office of the Chief Economist

World Agricultural 

Outlook Board

William Chambers

World Agricultural Outlook Board Deputy Chair

8
Office of the Chief Economist

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde
Office of the Chief Economist

WAOB serves as USDA’s focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. and 

world agriculture:

• Coordinates, reviews, and approves the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) 

report

• Houses OCE's Joint Agricultural Weather Facility

• Coordinates USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum

Chief Meteorologist 

Mark Brusberg

Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees

Chaired by WAOB Senior Analysts

Feed Grains

Michael 

Jewison 

Livestock & 

Dairy

Shayle Shagam

Oilseeds

Keith Menzie

Cotton

Steven 

MacDonald

Sugar & 

Sweeteners

Stephen Haley

The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB), housed within USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist,

WAOB serves as USDA’s focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. and world 

agriculture:

• Coordinates, reviews, and approves the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates 

(WASDE) report

• Coordinates USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum

World Board Chair 

Mark Jekanowski

Food Grains

Mark Simone

10

Deputy WAOB Chair 

William Chambers
Office of the Chief Economist

ICECs (Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees)

• World Agricultural Outlook Board, 

Chair

• Agricultural Marketing Service

• Economic Research Service

• Farm Production and Conservation 

Business Center

• Foreign Agricultural Service

ICECs include 

analysts from: Wheat

Rice

Feed Grains

Oilseeds

Cotton

Sugar

Meat Animals

Poultry

Dairy

Nine ICEC committees:
Office of the Chief Economist

World Agricultural Outlook Board

Personnel changes 

• Michael McConnell: Formerly with ERS, hired by WAOB as a 

Feedgrains Analyst also providing Data Analytics Support

• No Current Job Openings 

12
Office of the Chief Economist

• Returning to in-person at the Crystal 

Gateway Marriott, Arlington, VA.

• All sessions will also be livestreamed 

• Registration is open! To register visit: 

https://www.usda.gov/oce/ag-outlookforum

• Hope to see you there!

13
Office of the Chief Economist 14
NASS Agency Update

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

November 15, 2022
NASS Mission

To provide timely, accurate, and useful statistics 

in service to U.S. agriculture.

• ~120 Crop Commodities

• ~40 Livestock Commodities

• ~400 National Reports Annually

• > 9,000 State-Level Reports

• Census of Agriculture

• Census Special Studies

All

Scheduled in

Advance
New/Returning Products

National Hemp Report – February 2022

Local Foods – April 2022

Organics – December 2022

Pecans – December 2022 & January 2023

Cost of Pollination – January 2023

Conservation Practices Adoption Motivation – October 2022
Changes to Existing Products

Broiler Hatchery

% of Previous Year Values Removed 

from Publication

Values Can be Calculated
Changes to Existing Products

Poultry Slaughter

Added “Unknown” Category to “Condemned 

Post-Mortem by Cause & Type” Tables

“Total” Category No Longer Published

Better Aligned with FSIS
Changes to Existing Products

Floriculture

Expanded to 50 States

Added 25 Crops

Published Retail, Wholesale, Total Price

Released to QuickStats Only
Timing Changes

Dry Bean Market Year Average Prices

Grain Crushings & Co-Products Production Annual

In-Season Acreage Updates for

Corn, Sorghum, Soybeans, Sugarbeets

Moved from November to September

Moving from March to September

Moving from October to September
Livestreamed Briefings

Begin 5 Minutes after Release

NASS’s YouTube Channel

Acreage/Grain Stocks

Cattle

Crop Production/WASDE

Hogs & Pigs

Local Foods

Organics

Prospective Plantings/Grain Stocks

Small Grains Summary/Grain Stocks
Modernization

NASS is Committed to High Standards of 

Customer Service

Modernizing Customer Interfaces

Data Collection

Respondent Portal

Streamlined Authentication

User Accounts

Data Dissemination

Modern, Dynamic Pages

Efficient Data Structure

Enhanced Query Capabilities
Census of Agriculture

Conducted Every 5 Years

• A complete count of U.S. farms, ranches, and the people who 

operate them.

• The only source of uniform, comprehensive and impartial 

agriculture data for every county and state in the nation.

• Used to inform decisions about policy, farm and conservation 

programs, infrastructure and rural development, research, 

education, beginning farmer programs, and more.

Forms Mailing 

Soon!
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(800) 727-9540

nass@usda.gov

@usda_nass
Supporting Farmers and Rural America 

through Premier Economic Data & Research

Assistant Administrator Kelly Maguire

USDA Economic Research Service

NASS Data Users’ Meeting

Nov. 15, 2022
ERS anticipates trends and emerging issues in agriculture, food, the environment, and 

rural America and conducts high-quality, objective economic research to inform and 

enhance public and private decision making.
28

As one of 13 principal federal statistical agencies, ERS

is responsible for ensuring the quality, objectivity, and

transparency of the statistical information we provide.
Our Research

▪ In FY’22, ERS produced:

- 156 publications including ERS Reports, Outlook 

Newsletters, Amber Waves Features, & more

- 69 journal articles in peer reviewed publications

- 116 briefings & 470 staff analysis requests for 

government officials
Emerging 

Issues

▪ Timely research on emerging issues:

- COVID-19 Pandemic

- Ukraine Conflict 

- Infant Formula Shortage

- Tax Analysis
31

A Variety of Research: ERS Reports
32

A Variety of Research: Amber Waves
33

A Variety of Research: Charts of Note
34

• Over 80 Data Products

• Publicly available on ERS website - www.ers.usda.gov

• Broad range of types and frequency of updates

– Markets & trade data

– Productivity 

– Structure of industry & natural resources

– Consumer & food systems

– Rural America

– And more

A Variety of Data
35

• ERS conducts two Baseline Projections

• Developed and released by multiple USDA agencies

• Domestic baseline

– Released in February of each year

– Analysis of U.S. and macro projections for the next 10 years

• International baseline

– Updated each Spring

– Supply, demand, & trade projections for major commodities for select countries

USDA Agricultural Projections Report
36

• Prepared using data from the prior 

October’s WASDE report

• Projections are conducted by 

interagency committees in USDA

• Model results and judgement-based 

analyses

• Data can be downloaded in Excel files 

for use

• Interactive international baseline tool

Baseline Data
37

• Estimates of productivity growth for 

the U.S. farm sector for 1948-2019

• Price and quantity indices for 

agricultural outputs and inputs

• Will be updated next in early 2024

• Used in a variety of reports and 

analyses

Productivity Data 
38

Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS)

• USDA’s primary source of information on 

- Production practices

- Resource use, and 

- Economic well-being of America’s farms and ranches

• Annual survey jointly administered by ERS and NASS

- Data is collected from about 5,000 fields and 30,000 farms each year

- Sample is designed to be representative of the continental US 

- Supports statistical estimates for 15 key agricultural states

• Tells the story of American agriculture to the public that has less and less direct contact 

with the farm community
39

ARMS Uses: Financial Reporting

• Net farm income is forecast to 

decrease 4.5% from 2021 and 

Net cash farm income is forecast 

the decrease 2.1%

• Farm case receipts are forecast 

to increase 6.8% in 2022

• Direct government payments 

are forecast to decrease by 57% 

from 2021 forecast levels
On the Horizon

• Focus on Interconnected Research

• Strategic Priority Grants

• AAEA Partnership to Increase Diversity in Ag Economics
The Food Environment: 

A Prism of 

Interdependent Systems

Inputs/Production/Processing/Access

Food Chain

Sustainability / Climate Change / Conservation

Ecological Landscape

Food Safety / Access to Healthy Foods

Health Factors

Animal Welfare / Microbial Resistance 

Societal Influences

ERS Research
On the Horizon

• Focus on Interconnected Research

• Strategic Priority Grants

• AAEA Partnership to Increase Diversity in Ag Economics
On the Horizon

• Focus on Interconnected Research

• Strategic Priority Grants

• AAEA Partnership to Increase Diversity in Ag Economics
44

Like, Share, & Follow ERS 

www.ers.usda.gov @USDA_ERS linkedin.com/company/

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www.ers.usda.gov/

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45

Questions?

Kelly Maguire, Ph.D.

Assistant Administrator

USDA Economic Research Service

kelly.b.maguire@usda.gov

202-694-5448 
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

Farm Service Agency

Mike Walter

Data Analytics Officer
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

Agricultural Marketing Service

Jason Karwal

Agricultural Marketing Specialist
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

United States Census Bureau

Joseph DeCampo

Section Chief

International Trade Indicator Micro Analysis Branch
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

2022 

USDA Fall Data Users’ Meeting

November 15, 2022
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

2022 

USDA Fall Data Users’ Meeting

November 15, 2022

Break
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

Open Forum

Foreign Agricultural Service, World Agricultural Outlook Board, 

National Agricultural Statistics Service, Economic Research Service, 

Farm Service Agency, Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Census Bureau, 

Risk Management Agency, and Energy Information Administration
United States Department of Agriculture

2022 Fall Data Users’ Meeting 

Breakout Session

All times Eastern Session A Session B

2:30 p.m. AMS Market News

Agricultural Marketing Service

An Overview of Wheat, Dairy, and Food 

Price Outlook Data 

Economic Research Service

Links to join can be found in

• Your registration or reminder email 

• Emailed Booklet

• Chat window
USDA Market News Breakout

NASS Data Users Meeting

November 15, 2022
Organic Data Initiative

NASS Data Users Meeting

November 15, 2022

Presented by: Katy Looft, Specialty Crops Market News
The Farm Bill (Food, Conservation and Energy Act) of 2008

• The Secretary shall collect and report data on production and 

marketing of organic agricultural products.

• Specifically, the Secretary shall

1. Collect and distribute comprehensive reporting of prices 

relating to organically produced agricultural products;

2. Conduct surveys and analysis and publish reports relating to 

organic production, handling, distribution, retail, and trend 

studies; and

3. Develop surveys and report statistical analysis on 

organically produced agricultural products.

• Re-authorized in 2014 and 2018.
AMS Market News

• Market News provides unbiased price and volume information 

for both conventional and organic agricultural commodities, 

including cotton, fruit, vegetables, hemp, bio-fuels, dairy, 

livestock, bison, poultry, eggs, tobacco, grain, hay, and more.

• Market News reports on nearly 200 organic commodities in 

more than 1,000 markets nationwide.

My Market News: mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov
AMS Market News

• Market News publishes 12 specialized organic reports:

Title Frequency

National Fruit & Vegetable 

Organic Summary Daily

National Retail Report –

Conventional v Organic Weekly

National Retail Report – Local 

& Organic Weekly

Organic Poultry & Eggs Weekly

Organic Dairy Retail Overview Weekly

Organic Dairy Fluid Overview Weekly

Title Frequency

Organic Dairy Market 

Overview Weekly

Direct to Consumer Organic 

Dairy Products Prices

Every 10 

days

Dairy Market News Organic 

Report Biweekly

Midwest Regional Organic 

Grain & Feedstuffs Report Biweekly

National Organic Grain and 

Feedstuffs Report Bimonthly

Organic Cotton Market Report Annually
Organic Data Initiative Goals

1. Increase awareness of AMS Market News offerings: attend and 

present at industry meetings, conferences, and trade shows.

2. Identify areas for improvement: survey stakeholders on use of 

Market News data and unmet needs/outstanding issues.

3. Expand data offerings to include Farmers Markets: pilot 

project in PA and expand to other states/tribes.

4. Enhance data visualization: upgrade software platform.
Organic Data Initiative Goals

5. Improve mobile app: develop version to include organic filtering 

capability.

6. Increase availability of organic dairy data: enhance organics in 

Federal Milk Marketing Order Statistics System.

7. Improve organic trade information: collaborate with Customs 

and Border Protection to create and modify HTS codes.

8. Educate stakeholders on the uses for Market News data: 

produce webinars, videos, and USDA Radio segments.
Specialty Crops Market News 

& HTS Codes

NASS Data Users Meeting

November 15, 2022

Presented by: Patty Willkie, Specialty Crops Market News
Prior 2020 Import Data Source

• APHIS/PPQ AQAS 280 Database aka Cognos. Commodities were entered based on 

disposition codes.

Inspected and released, fumigated, destroyed, part of a trade 

agreement, etc.

• Florida tomato industry voiced concerns that Canadian imports crossing the northern U.S. 

border were incomplete.

• After a trip to the Buffalo, NY Peace Bridge Border Crossing in the fall of 2018, the North 

American Inspection Program Canadian Origin (NAIPCO) was discovered.
• NAIPCO consists of approximately 33 Canadian commodities which, depending on certain times of 

the year, only 1, 2, or 5 percent of that commodity is required to be inspected upon entrance into the 

U.S. It is those inspections that are then entered into the Cognos database.

• Not only were the Canadian tomato crossings incomplete but so were any of the 33 other commodities 

that were included in the NAIPCO program.

• Now what??

Prior 2020 Import Data Source
Automated Commercial Environment (ACE)

• A select group of Specialty Crops Market News reporters had been going 

through the lengthy multi-year process of getting access to the Automated 

Commercial Environment (ACE) database.
Automated Commercial Environment (ACE)

• ACE is a database maintained by DHS and CBP in which every manifest that 

enters the U.S. is filed. 

• Everything from auto parts to zucchini is assigned a Harmonized Tariff 

Scheduled (HTS) Code which determines what duty/tariff is assigned for entry 

to the U.S.
Automated Commercial Environment (ACE)

• Starting January 1, 2020, SCMN began using ACE as the data source for 

imports crossing the northern U.S. border. The first week in January 2020 saw 

an increase of 98 percent in Canadian onions that were reported than the prior 

week.

• January 1, 2021, SCMN began using ACE as the data source for imports for all 

other ports/points of entry except for Nogales, AZ.
Automated Commercial Environment (ACE)

• In some cases, not as much detail in using ACE compared to Cognos.

- One HTS Code for all squash and one code for all chili peppers.

- “Other” categories for commodities that don’t have HTS codes 

such as Other Fresh Fruit Not Otherwise Provided For. 

(pomegranates & dragon fruit)

• Request the creation of HTS Codes.
HTS Code Requests

•Requirements:

1. Must have at least 3 importers and no disclosure issues.

2. Must have at least $1M annually in trade.

3. If Canada is a major exporter, they must either have a 

corresponding export code or agree to the creation of the 

HTS Code.
HTS Code Requests

• One of the biggest impediments to the HTS Code requests are the 

return of the Census Trade Surveys. This is what determines 

whether the required level of trade has been met and/or if there are 

disclosure issues.
HTS Code Requests

ITC 484(f) Committee May 2022 Meeting Results:
HTS Code Requests

• Originally, the hot pepper, squash, cucumbers, and squash codes were denied for either 

low/no trade or disclosure issues but now have been move to abeyance for the fall 

meeting (October 2022/January 1, 2023).

• Searched high and low in ACE to try and find a way to generate the Trade Survey 

information as it is all on the manifests. We just had to figure out how to ask for it.

• Figured out how to generate manifest information based on cargo descriptions. 
Supporting Documentation

• Jalapenos – originally denied due to the appearance of low trade due to low returns of trade surveys.

• GCMC info for January 2022: 102 Importers, 12,619,452 kg, $7,793,844
Supporting Documentation

• The amount of trade for some of the imports is staggering.
Supporting Documentation

• Lychee 2021
Supporting Documentation

• Rambutan 2021
HTS Code Requests

• Since July 2021, SCMN is responsible for the creation of 101 new HTS 

codes (26 of which are organic).

• In October 2022, the International Trade Commission 484 (f) Committee 

approved the breakout of stat lines for 30 commodities resulting in the 

creation of more than 31 new HTS codes, of which at least 8 will be 

organic. 
USDA Market News Mobile 

Application

NASS Data Users Meeting

November 15, 2022

Presented by: John Gallagher, Livestock, Poultry and Grain 

Market News
App can be downloaded from the platforms below

Both iOS and Android Versions will be free to the public. 

iOS version is available at Apple App Store. 

The Android is available at Google Play Store.

Earlier this year USDA Market News released a mobile app that allows users to view all 

Market News Reports as soon as they are released. The app includes reporting filtering 

capabilities, ability to add reports to favorites and subscriptions, and functionality to 

views previously released reports. 
The app provides functionality to allow 

users to customize the specific reports for 

commodity areas and market types that 

they want to be displayed. 
The app provides functionality 

to allow users find reports 

based on U.S. zip codes for 

area specific reports.
The app provides functionality 

to allow users to find reports 

based on U.S. states.
The app provides functionality 

to allow users to find reports 

based on the commodities 

reported on them.
The app provides 

functionality to allow users to 

search through all USDA 

Market News reports.
The app provides functionality to 

allow users to share reports, 

subscribe to reports, save reports as 

favorites and to email report data to 

themselves or others. 
Use the calendar icon to 

view and select the dates of 

previously released reports. 
The app provides functionality to 

allow users to manage and filter 

the favorites and subscriptions 

they set in the app. 
The app provides settings to 

allow users to set notifications, 

review tutorials and to share 

and rate the app. 
• Introduce new “International Reports” Section

• Introduce “New Report” Notice

• Consolidate the “Favorites” and “Subscriptions” into a new 

“User Profile” Section

• Introduce new “Organic” and “Retail” tabs at top of the app

• Improve ways to identify “LMR” specific reports. 

Updates coming (v3.0 - Jun 2023)
✓ Download Mobile App on iOS: Apple App Store

✓ Download Mobile App on Android: Google Play Store

✓ Hint - Search the store with “USDA Market News”

Download the App
Contacts

✓ General Questions: mymarketnews@usda.gov

✓ Katy Looft: Katherine.Looft@usda.gov

✓ Patty Willkie: Patty.Willkie@usda.gov

✓ John T. Gallagher: JohnT.Gallagher@usda.gov

Other Useful Web Links

✓ Datamart – Mandatory Data and API Information

https://mpr.datamart.ams.usda.gov

✓ My Market News (MMN) – Voluntary Data and API Information

https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov
Contact us!

Kim Mercer

Assistant to the Director

Specialty Crops Market News

Kimberly.Mercer@usda.gov

Katy Looft

Agricultural Economist

Specialty Crops Program

Katherine.Looft@usda.gov

General inquiries:

John Okoniewski

Director, Specialty Crops Market News

John.Okoniewski@usda.gov

Mike Sheats

Director, Livestock, Poultry and Grain Market News

Michael.Sheats@usda.gov

Janet Linder

Director, Dairy Market News

Janet.Linder@usda.gov

Barbara Meredith

Director, Cotton and Tobacco Market News

Barbara.Meredith@usda.gov

Commodity-specific inquiries:
ERS Strategic Research Efforts 

High-quality, objective economic analysis on agricultural, 

food, the environment & rural America

Economic Research Service

U.S. Department of Agriculture

November 16, 2022

Kelly Maguire – Moderator 

Andrew Sowell, Matthew J. MacLachlan & AJ Terán – Presenters
Economic Research Service

ERS anticipates trends and emerging issues in agriculture, 

food, the environment, and rural America and conducts 

high-quality, objective economic research to inform and 

enhance public and private decision making.
Emerging 

Issues

▪ Timely research on emerging issues:

- COVID-19 Pandemic

- Ukraine Conflict 

- Infant Formula Shortage

- Tax Analysis
ERS Wheat Data Products

Andrew Sowell, Economist

Market & Trade Economics Division
5

Overview

▪ What wheat data products does ERS have?

▪ What is covered in this data and why is it important?

▪ How do we access the data?
6

Wheat Data

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data/
7

Wheat Data

▪ The primary ERS wheat dataset most users will reference for 

by-class & all-wheat data

▪ Data gathered from NASS, WASDE, PSD Online, AMS, & other 

resources

▪ Separate files for recent years only and full historical data

▪ Updated monthly the day after the WASDE is published
8

Wheat Data Highlights

▪ Area planted, harvested, and production by-class (table 1)

▪ World production, supply, and disappearance (tables 3-4)

▪ U.S. supply and disappearance, total and by-class (tables 5-11)

▪ U.S. food use monthly data (tables 13-16)

▪ U.S and international prices (tables 18-20)
9

Wheat Data Highlights

▪ Monthly U.S. trade data, by component - grain, flour, & products 

(tables 21-24)

▪ U.S. exports by destination (table 25)

▪ Flour production and related data (tables 28-33)

▪ U.S. wheat monthly trade by-class (tables 34-35)
10

Why Use This Data?

▪ Easy reference to a wide variety of data which users would otherwise 

have to dig through multiple websites to find

▪ Some pieces of information are uniquely available in this source – such 

as monthly trade data by class & monthly food use

▪ This data gives a window into the data used to calculate the WASDE 

figures
11

Documentation Page Available

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data/documentation/
12

What Improvements Have Been Made?

▪ Soft White Maximum 10.5 percent protein quote added to Table 19

▪ Improvements in automating data gathering

▪ Visualization in progress to bring these data elements to life

▪ Section 508 compliance also in progress
13

Preview of Wheat Visualization: By-Class Trade Data

(Table 34-35)
14

Preview of Wheat Visualization: Price Data

(Table 19)
15

Preview of Wheat Visualization: Price Data

(Table 20)
16

Preview of Wheat Visualization: Export Destinations

(Table 25)
17

Preview of Wheat Visualization: By-Class Production

(Table 6)
18

Wheat Outlook Tables

https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details?pubid=104960
19

Wheat Outlook Tables

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/cz30ps64c?locale=en
20

Wheat Outlook Data Tables

▪ Abbreviated version of the larger Wheat Data product

▪ All-wheat & by-class supply & disappearance data (tables 1 & 2)

▪ Quarterly supply and disappearance (table 3)

▪ Monthly food use (table 4)

▪ Price data (tables 5-7)

▪ Recent U.S. trade data (table 8)
21

Wheat Outlook Data Tables

▪ Published at the same time as Wheat Outlook report each 

month (2 workdays after WASDE)

▪ Useful as quick reference; not intended to be comprehensive

▪ Less historic data
22

Wheat By-Class Quarterly

▪ Available on the Wheat Data webpage

▪ Spreadsheet is generally updated 4 times a year (Feb., May, Aug., Nov.)

▪ Data provided for quarters already completed (no forecasting)

▪ Timing driven by the publication of food use data by USDA, NASS

▪ Unique product published only by 

ERS based on quarterly all-wheat 

& marketing year by-class data 

based on WASDE
23

Wheat By-Class Quarterly
ERS Dairy Data Sets

AJ Terán, Economist

Market & Trade Economics Division
25

Dairy Data Sets

www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/dairy-data/
26

In this annual data file ERS 

provides regional subtotals 

for milk cows, milk per cow, 

and milk production from 

State data provided by 

USDA, NASS.

Milk Cows & Production by State & Region 

(Annual)
27

Milk Cows & Production by State & Region (cont.)
28

U.S. Milk Production & Related Data 

(Quarterly & Annual)
29

Annual Milk Production & Factors Affecting Supply 

Cows’ inventory Productivity Milk-feed ratio Cows’ price Feed & culling 

prices
30

Annual Milk Production & Factors Affecting Supply (cont.)

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020

Million pounds cows (1,000) Milk production Avg # cows
31

Supply & Utilization for Dairy Product Categories 

▪ Monthly data tables for 8 product categories 

▪ The following calculations are used:

Total Supply = beginning commercial stocks + 

production + imports

Domestic Disappearance = total commercial 

supply – exports – ending stocks 

▪ Annual adjustments:

Apparent Domestic Human Use = domestic 

disappearance – net shipments to U.S. territories 

– animal feed use [if applicable}
32

Same formula, except:

▪ Milk Marketings = milk production – farm use

▪ Total Supply = beginning stocks + milk marketings + imports

▪ Domestic Disappearance = total commercial supply – exports – ending stocks

Supply & Utilization of Milk in All Products

Annual adjustments:

▪ Apparent Domestic Human Use 

= domestic disappearance + 

household farm use – (net 

shipments to U.S. territories + 

domestic use of dairy products 

as animal feed + other uses)
33

Annual Dairy Products, Per Capita Consumption 
34

Annual Dairy Products, Per Capita Consumption (cont.)
35

Annual Fluid Beverage Milk Sales Quantities by Product

Class I sales for:

• Whole milk

• Reduced-fat (2% milk fat)

• Low-fat (1% milk fat)

• Skim milk

• Flavored milk

• Flavored other than whole

• Buttermilk

• Eggnog
36

Annual Selected Soft Dairy Products, Domestic Use

Class II sales for:

• Regular Ice cream

• Low-fat Ice cream

• Non-fat ice cream

• Frozen yogurt

• Sherbet

• Cottage cheese

• Buttermilk

• Sour Cream
37

Annual Per Capita Consumption of Selected Cheese Varieties 

• American type: Cheddar

• Italian types: Mozzarella

• Swiss

• Blue

• Brick

• Hispanic

• Processed cheese

• And other types
38

U.S. Dairy Situation At a Glance 

(Monthly & Annual)
39

Major Data Sources Used by USDA, ERS

▪ ERS economists use numerous primary sources to assemble and 

calculate data provided on the ERS Dairy Data web page: 

‒ USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS)

➢ Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) Statistics 

➢ Dairy Market News (DMN)

‒ USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)

‒ USDA, Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS)

‒ U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau

‒ Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
40

What is the data? 

▪ Dairy Data Sets are series of dairy data tables (spreadsheets) covering domestic supply, 

demand, factors affecting milk production, and per capita consumption.

Why is it important? 

▪ Keep track of total supply and demand of milk and dairy products

▪ Shows recent and historical per capita consumption of dairy products

How can it be used? 

▪ These can be downloaded and used to graph trends, for business strategies, and forecasting.

Where can it be found? 

▪ For all detailed documentation, please visit the ERS dairy data webpage:

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/dairy-data/.

Dairy Data Sets
Forecasting Food Prices in a Rapidly 

Changing Economy

Matthew J. MacLachlan, Economist

Food Economics Division
42

Like, Share, & Follow ERS 

www.ers.usda.gov @USDA_ERS linkedin.com/company/

usda-economic-research-service

www.ers.usda.gov/

data-products/charts-of-note

Subscribe to Weekly E-mail Notifications: www.ers.usda.gov/subscribe

Learn About Careers at ERS: www.ers.usda.gov/about-ers/careers-at-ers
43

ERS’s Food Price Outlook (FPO) Adds Value to Food 

CPIs & PPIs by Forecasting & Interpreting Trends

▪ Monthly report of Bureau of Labor Statistics’ 

Consumer & Producer Price Indexes & ERS 

forecasts for 22 retail food categories & 13 farmor wholesale-level food or ag products

▪ ERS forecasts food prices for current year & 

following year beginning in July

▪ Ranks among ERS’s most viewed products

▪ Other FPO products provide info about U.S. food 

spending & the food price environment

– Visualizations, Charts of Note, Charting the 

Essentials, Amber Waves, & ERS peerreviewed reports
44

Forecasting and Data Visualizations Support 

Qualitative Evaluations of Food Markets

▪ Summary Findings report the changes in CPIs and 

PPIs, highlighting drivers of these changes. 

▪ Often drawn from other USDA reports and data 

products. 

▪ Visualizations help to convey the magnitude and 

impact of price changes on consumers. 
45

The FPO Team Works to Provide other Agencies 

with Information about Changes in Food Prices

▪ Public & internal forecasts inform budget 

expectations for large programs like SNAP & WIC

▪ ERS and the FPO Team has responded to requests 

from the USDA, Center for Nutrition Policy & 

Promotion to assist in a rigorous account of changes 

in food prices over time

▪ Since late 2020, FPO has received requests for input 

from other agencies, Congress, OECD, FAO, & USDA 

leadership.
46

Overhaul of Methodology Improves Forecasts & the 

Processes behind the Food Price Outlook 

▪ Legacy approach used time-series models & expert opinion

– Trends in farm-level or wholesale prices

– Ad hoc seasonality, long-term trends, & lags 

– 1- or 3-percentage-point ranges convey uncertainty

▪ Reduced forecast error & informative prediction intervals

▪ Process improvements leverage advancements in 

computing & time-series methods

– Forecast model selected by fit

– Eliminates need for expert opinion

– Data-driven uncertainty—Monte Carlo simulations

– Reproduceable & transferable among staff

– Automation saves time

Figure from MacLachlan et al. (2022)
47

Allows ERS to Forecast New Series with a Standard 

Approach

▪ Evolving methods & expanding data 

availability require flexible & systematic 

approaches to updates. 

▪ Growing interest in more detailed measures 

of food price changes. 

Figure from MacLachlan 

et al. (2022)
48

Data Related to Food Prices Can Be Included (Or Not) 

Based On Their Ability to Improve Forecasts 

▪ Past assumptions may be wrong; new 

specifications should be considered. 

▪ Little evidence of wholesale prices 

enhancing retail price estimates for pork.

▪ New research suggests M2 money supply 

may contribute to food prices.

▪ Partnerships facilitate the use of emerging 

datasets and methodologies.

Figure from Adjemian et al. (Forthcoming)
Questions?

Kelly Maguire kelly.b.maguire@usda.gov

Matthew MacLachlan matthew.maclachlan@usda.gov

AJ Terán angel.teran@usda.gov

Andrew Sowell andrew.sowell@usda.gov