HOGS & PIGS INVENTORY

Executive Briefing

September 1, 2014 

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 26, 2014
September Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period: 

 August 30 - September 16

Sample Size: 

 7,815

Collection Methods:

Phone, mail, internet, personal interview

Main Data Items:

• Total Inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter

• Sows farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

September 26, 2014
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Revisions

Initial

Estimate

Previous 

Revision

Current

Revision

Net 

Revision

Current 

Estimate

Mar

2014

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

62.9 million -410,000

-0.7%

-995,000

-1.6%

-1,405,000

-2.2%

61.5 million

Pig 

Crop 27.3 million -980,000

-3.6%

26.3 million

Jun

2014

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

62.1 million -545,000

-0.9%

61.6 million

September 26, 2014
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Inventory

September 1, 2014

Inventory Items (000) Hd % PY

All Hogs & Pigs 65,361 98

Breeding Hogs 5,920 102

Market Hogs 59,441 97

Jun – Aug Pig Crop 29,539 99

Sows Farrowing 2,907 101

Litter Rate Number % PY

Jun – Aug 2014 10.16 98

Farrowing Intentions (000) Hd % PY

Sep – Nov 2014 2,890 104

Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 2,870 104

September 26, 2014
58

60

62

64

66

68

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory

September 1, 2014

65.4

September 26, 2014
NASS Estimates Compared to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 97.7% 96.6% 95.6% – 97.5%

Breeding Hogs 101.8% 101.4% 99.8% – 104.7%

Market Hogs 97.3% 96.2% 94.9% – 97.0%

Jun – Aug Pig Crop 98.9% 97.6% 96.4% – 99.0%

Farrowing Intentions

Sep – Nov 2014 104.0% 103.2% 102.0% – 104.3%

Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 103.8% 101.7% 98.2% – 103.6%

September 26, 2014
59

61

63

65

67

69

71

Mar 

08

Sep 

08

Mar 

09

Sep 

09

Mar 

10

Sep 

10

Mar 

11

Sep 

11

Mar 

12

Sep 

12

Mar 

13

Sep 

13

Mar 

14

Sep 

14

All Hogs and Pigs 

Board vs Trade Expectations

ASB Final Est Trade Range ASB First Est

September 26, 2014
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

M-M 

10

J-A 

10

S-N 

10

D-F 

11

M-M 

11

J-A 

11

S-N 

11

D-F 

12

M-M 

12

J-A 

12

S-N 

12

D-F 

13

M-M 

13

J-A 

13

S-N 

13

D-F 

14

M-M 

14

J-A 

14

Feeder Pigs Slaughter

Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

September 26, 2014
Million Head

September 26, 2014 2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed 

June - August

ASB Estimate Sep-Nov Intentions Dec-Feb Intentions
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Jun 1

Estimate Slaughter Additions Sep 1Estimate

Sow

Utilization

(000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd Percent

2005 5,988 846 851 5,993 49%

2006 6,080 896 915 6,099 48%

2007 6,169 945 984 6,208 51%

2008 6,131 1,017 947 6,061 50%

2009 5,968 963 870 5,875 50%

2010 5,788 818 800 5,770 51%

2011 5,803 848 851 5,806 50%

2012 5,862 859 785 5,788 50%

2013 5,884 796 728 5,816 49%

2014 5,855 764 829 5,920 50%

September 26, 2014
September 26, 2014 8.80

9.00

9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

10.20

10.40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter 

June - August

10.16
10.16

8.00

8.70

9.10

9.50

10.00

10.20

7.25

7.75

8.25

8.75

9.25

9.75

10.25

10.75

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1000-1999 2000-4999 5000+

Size of Operation

U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

June – August 2014

September 26, 2014
Hogs $/cwt

Corn $/bu

September 26, 2014

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$25

$35

$45

$55

$65

$75

$85

$95

0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4

Year

U.S. Prices Received by Farmers 

for Hogs & Corn 

Hogs Corn
Upcoming Reports

September 29 Agricultural Prices

September 30 Grain Stocks

Small Grains

October 10 Crop Production

October 20 Milk Production

October 24 Cattle on Feed 

October 29 Final Estimates - 

Production, Disposition, 

and Income

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 26, 2014
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions Call or Email

202-720-3570

800-727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 26, 2014