Hogs & Pigs Inventory

June 1, 2016

Executive Briefing

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview

June Hogs & Pigs

Data Collection Period May 31 – June 14

Sample Size 8,154

Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview

Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter

sows farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

June 24, 2016
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Previous 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

December 1, 2015 All Hogs 

and Pigs 68,299 +90+0.1%

+480

+0.7%

+570

+0.8% 68,869

Pig Crop 30,271 +577

+1.9% 30,848

March 1, 2016 All Hogs 

and Pigs 67,644 -170-0.3% 67,474

June 24, 2016
U.S. Hogs & Pigs June 1

Items 2015 2016 % PY

1,000 head

All Hogs & Pigs 67,165 68,381 102

Breeding Hogs 5,926 5,979 101

Market Hogs 61,240 62,402 102

180 lbs & over 11,429 11,566 101

120-179 lbs 12,985 13,141 101

50-119 lbs 17,461 17,848 102

less than 50 lbs 19,365 19,846 102

Sows Farrowed 2,854 2,896 101

Pig Crop 29,593 30,347 103

number

Pigs per Litter 10.37 10.48 101

1,000 head

Jun-Aug Farrowings 3,017 2,949 98

Sep-Nov Farrowings 2,929 2,896 99

June 24, 2016
68.4

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million head

U.S. Quarterly Hogs & Pigs

2007 - 2016

June 24, 2016
June 1, 2016 Hogs and Pigs Inventory

(000) Head and Percent of Previous Year

June 24, 2016
NASS Estimates Compared

to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items

NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 101.8% 100.7% 100.1% – 102.1%

Breeding Hogs 100.9% 100.4% 99.7% – 101.6%

Market Hogs 101.9% 100.7% 100.1% – 102.1%

Mar – May Pig Crop 102.6% 100.7% 99.6% – 101.0%

Farrowing Intentions

Jun – Aug 97.8% 97.8% 96.5% – 99.0%

Sep – Nov 98.9% 100.8% 99.4% – 102.6%

June 24, 2016
59

61

63

65

67

69

71

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million head

ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range

All Hogs and Pigs

First Estimate versus Final Estimate

2007 - 2016

June 24, 2016
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2007-2016

2.90

2.95

2.90

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million head

Mar-May Estimate Jun-Aug Intentions Sep-Nov Intentions

June 24, 2016
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Mar 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Jun 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2007 6,149 955 975 6,169 49

2008 6,200 1,023 954 6,131 49

2009 5,992 876 852 5,968 50

2010 5,760 847 875 5,788 50

2011 5,788 826 841 5,803 50

2012 5,820 813 855 5,862 51

2013 5,834 848 898 5,884 48

2014 5,851 775 779 5,855 48

2015 5,982 781 725 5,926 48

2016 5,980 794 793 5,979 48

June 24, 2016
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2007-2016

10.30

10.37

10.48

9.0

9.3

9.6

9.9

10.2

10.5

10.8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Pigs per litter

June 24, 2016
U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

March-May 2016

10.48

8.10

8.80

9.20

9.60

10.20

10.50

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000+

Pigs per litter

Size of Operation

June 24, 2016
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter

June 24, 2016
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs & Corn

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Corn $/bu

Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn

June 24, 2016
Upcoming NASS Reports

Release Date Report Title

June 29 Agricultural Prices

June 30 Acreage

Grain Stocks

July 1 Cotton System

Fats & Oils

Grain Crushings

July 12 Crop Production

July 21 Milk Production

July 22 Cattle on Feed

June 24, 2016
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

June 24, 2016