Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

August 12, 2020
Data Sources

August 12, 2020

August 2020 Ag Yield Sample Sizes

Operator Reported

Survey

Field Objective Yield

Survey Winter Wheat

Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through

(Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt August 3

Ag Yield Sample Size = 20,346 July 30 - August 6

Sample Size = 1,155 July 25 - August 1
August 2020 Corn

Acreage, Yield, and Production

August 12, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Iowa 14,000 ↑ 3.7 13,550 ↑ 3.8 202 ↑ 2.0 2,737,100 ↑ 5.9

Illinois 10,900 ↑ 3.8 10,700 ↑ 4.9 207 ↑ 14.4 2,214,900 ↑ 20.0

Nebraska 9,800 ↓ 3.0 9,450 ↓ 3.7 191 ↑ 4.9 1,804,950 ↑ 1.1

Minnesota 8,100 ↑ 3.8 7,650 ↑ 5.5 197 ↑ 13.9 1,507,050 ↑ 20.2

Indiana 5,400 ↑ 8.0 5,250 ↑ 8.9 188 ↑ 11.2 987,000 ↑ 21.2

Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

N C

3.3 ↑ 8.6 ↑ 12.2

N C N/A N/A

Planted Harvested Yield Production

92,006 84,023 181.8 15,278,202

↑ ↑

Top 5 States - By Production

2.6

Planted Harvested Yield

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
108.6

131.5

100.7

138.6

113.5

127.1126.7

134.4133.8

136.9138.2

129.3

142.2

160.3

147.9149.1150.7

153.3

164.4

152.6

146.8

123.1

158.1

171.0

168.4

174.6

176.6176.4

167.4

181.8

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

170.0

180.0

190.0

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

August 2020 Corn Yield

United States

August 12, 2020

Bushels per Acre
August 2020 Corn Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

August 12, 2020
August 2020 Corn

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

August 12, 2020
12.3

10.8

13.8 14.2

13.6

15.1

14.6 14.3

13.6

15.3

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

August 2020 Corn Production

United States

August 12, 2020

Billion Bushels
2020 U.S. Corn Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

August 12, 2020

14.8

14.9

15.0

15.1

15.2

15.3

15.4

15.5

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 2020 Soybeans

Acreage, Yield, and Production

August 12, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Illinois 10,400 ↑ 4.5 10,350 ↑ 5.0 64.0 ↑ 18.5 662,400 ↑ 24.4

Iowa 9,400 ↑ 2.2 9,320 ↑ 2.2 58.0 ↑ 5.5 540,560 ↑ 7.8

Minnesota 7,400 ↑ 8.0 7,330 ↑ 8.3 51.0 ↑ 15.9 373,830 ↑ 25.5

Indiana 5,700 ↑ 5.6 5,680 ↑ 6.0 61.0 ↑ 19.6 346,480 ↑ 26.7

Nebraska 5,000 ↑ 2.0 4,950 ↑ 2.3 62.0 ↑ 6.0 306,900 ↑ 8.4

↑ 12.4 ↑ 24.6

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 10.2

N C N C N/A N/A

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 10.8

83,825 83,020 53.3 4,424,800

Planted Harvested Yield Production
34.2

37.6

32.6

41.4

35.3

37.6

38.9 38.9

36.6

38.1

39.6

38.0

33.9

42.2

43.1 42.9

41.7

39.7

44.0 43.5

42.0

40.0

44.0

47.5 48.0

51.9

49.3

50.6

47.4

53.3

29.0

34.0

39.0

44.0

49.0

54.0

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

August 2020 Soybean Yield

United States

August 12, 2020

Bushels per Acre
August 2020 Soybean Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

August 12, 2020
August 2020 Soybeans

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

August 12, 2020
August 2020 Soybean Production

United States

August 12, 2020

Billion Bushels

3.10 3.04

3.36

3.93 3.93

4.30 4.41 4.43

3.55

4.42

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 U.S. Soybean Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

August 12, 2020

4.10

4.15

4.20

4.25

4.30

4.35

4.40

4.45

4.50

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 2020 Cotton

Acreage, Yield, and Production

August 12, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

Texas 6,615 ↓ 6.3 3,861 ↓ 26.6 774 ↑ 33.9 6,223 ↓ 1.8

Georgia 1,230 ↓ 12.1 1,220 ↓ 11.6 1,003 ↑ 5.2 2,550 ↓ 6.9

Mississippi 520 ↓ 26.8 515 ↓ 26.4 1,240 ↑ 11.5 1,330 ↓ 18.0

Arkansas 500 ↓ 19.4 490 ↓ 19.7 1,195 ↑ 0.8 1,220 ↓ 19.0

Alabama 470 ↓ 13.0 465 ↓ 12.6 981 ↑ 5.7 950 ↓ 7.6

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

↓ 20.4 ↑ 14.0 ↓ 9.2

N C N/A N/A

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

12,185 9,247 938 18,080

N/A

↓ 11.3

Planted Harvested Yield Production
652

700

606

708

537

705

673

625

607

632

705

665

730

855

831

814

879

813

776

812

790

892

822

838

766

867

905

882

823

938

480.0

530.0

580.0

630.0

680.0

730.0

780.0

830.0

880.0

930.0

980.0

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

August 2020 Cotton Yield

United States

August 12, 2020

Pounds per Acre
August 2020 Cotton Yield

Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Year

August 12, 2020
August 2020 Cotton Production

United States

August 12, 2020

Million Bales

15.6

17.3

12.9

16.3

12.9

17.2

20.9

18.4

19.9

18.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
August 2020 Winter Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

August 12, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Kansas 6,700 ↓ 2.9 6,400 ↓ 1.5 46.0 ↓ 11.5 294,400 ↓ 12.9

Washington 1,700 ↓ 2.9 1,650 ↓ 2.9 74.0 ↑ 5.7 122,100 ↑ 2.6

Oklahoma 4,300 ↑ 2.4 2,700 ↓ 1.8 42.0 ↑ 5.0 113,400 ↑ 3.1

Montana 1,550 ↓ 22.5 1,450 ↓ 23.7 52.0 ↑ 4.0 75,400 ↓ 20.6

Texas 4,800 ↑ 6.7 2,100 ↑ 2.4 30.0 ↓ 11.8 63,000 ↓ 9.6

↓ 4.7 ↓ 8.1

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↓ 2.0

30,550 23,439 51.1 1,198,362

N C N C ↓ 1.7 ↓ 1.6

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↓ 3.7

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
34.7

38.2

40.2 40.2

37.7

37.1

44.6

46.9

47.8

44.6

43.4

38.2

46.7

43.5

44.3

41.6 41.7

47.1

44.0

46.5 46.1

47.1 47.3

42.6 42.5

55.3

50.2

47.9

53.6

51.1

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

56.0

61.0

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

August 2020 Winter Wheat Yield

United States

August 12, 2020

Bushels per Acre
August 2020 Winter Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

August 12, 2020
August 2020 Winter Wheat Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

August 12, 2020

Percent

1 6

6 4

9 3

2 1

6 8

9 4

2 8

6 9

9 3

1 8

6 9

9 3

8

5 0

8 9

1 4

6 4

9 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 June July

August June JulyAugust June JulyAugust June JulyAugust June JulyAugust June JulyAugust

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mature
August 2020 Winter Wheat Objective Yield

Heads per Square Foot and Yield for 10 State Region

August 12, 2020

Heads per Square Foot Bushels per Acre

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

55

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50 June July

August Final June July

August Final June July

August Final June JulyAugust Final June July

August Final June July

August Final

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Heads per Square Foot Yield
August 2020 Winter Wheat Production

United States

August 12, 2020

Billion Bushels

1.49

1.63

1.54

1.38 1.37

1.67

1.27

1.18

1.30

1.20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
August 2020 Winter Wheat Production

By Class

August 12, 2020

Unit

Hard Red Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 2.1

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 16.5

Soft Red Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 1.2

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 15.8

White Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.5

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.4

Production

(1,000 Units)

695,365

276,882

226,115

783

998

747 739

830

1,082

750

662

833

695

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Million Bushels

Hard Red Winter Wheat Production

United States

453

413

568

455

359 345

293 286

239

277

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Million Bushels

Soft Red Winter Wheat Production

United States

258

220 227

184 185

245

227 236 232 226

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Million Bushels

White Winter Wheat Production

United States
2020 U.S. Winter Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

August 12, 2020

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 2020 Other Spring Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

August 12, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 6,000 ↓ 10.4 5,850 ↓ 1.7 48.0 ↓ 2.0 280,800 ↓ 3.7

Montana 3,000 ↑ 3.4 2,850 ↑ 3.3 40.0 ↑ 8.1 114,000 ↑ 11.6

Minnesota 1,300 ↓ 10.3 1,260 ↓ 10.0 58.0 ↑ 1.8 73,080 ↓ 8.4

Idaho 530 ↑ 15.2 510 ↑ 15.9 82.0 ↓ 7.9 41,820 ↑ 6.8

South Dakota 850 ↑ 32.8 815 ↑ 34.7 45.0 ↑ 4.7 36,675 ↑ 41.0

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

↑ 1.2 ↑ 1.7 ↑ 2.7

N C N C ↑ 5.2

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

12,200 11,795 49.0 577,485

↑ 5.0

↓ 3.6

Planted Harvested Yield Production
33.4

41.8

33.7

31.8 32.2

35.1

29.9

34.9

34.1

38.4

35.2

29.1

39.5

43.2

37.1

33.2

37.1

40.5

45.2

46.1

37.7

44.9

47.1 46.7

46.2

47.3

41.0

48.3 48.2

49.0

26.0

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

August 2020 Other Spring Wheat Yield

United States

August 12, 2020

Bushels per Acre
August 2020 Other Spring Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

August 12, 2020
2020 U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

August 12, 2020

0.520

0.530

0.540

0.550

0.560

0.570

0.580

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 2020 Durum Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

August 12, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 790 ↑ 9.7 770 ↑ 28.3 40.0 ↓ 5.9 30,800 ↑ 20.8

Montana 610 ↑ 10.9 590 ↑ 14.6 38.0 ↓ 11.6 22,420 ↑ 1.2

Arizona 5 5 ↑ 61.8 5 2 ↑ 57.6 110.0 ↑ 5.8 5,720 ↑ 66.7

California 3 5 ↑ 16.7 2 2 N C 90.0 ↓ 11.8 1,980 ↓ 11.8

Idaho 1 0 ↑ 100.0 1 0 ↑ 100.0 87.0 N C 870 ↑ 100.0

↓ 6.3 ↑ 14.9

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 12.0

1,500 1,444 42.8 61,790

N C N C ↑ 11.2 ↑ 11.2

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 22.9

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
32.5

39.7

33.6

35.6

30.5

32.6

27.6

37.0

27.8

30.7

30.0

29.5

33.7

38.0

37.2

29.5

34.1

31.3

44.0

41.2

36.8

38.4

43.3

40.2

44.0 44.0

26.0

39.5

45.7

42.8

23.0

28.0

33.0

38.0

43.0

48.0

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

August 2020 Durum Wheat Yield

United States

August 12, 2020

Bushels per Acre
August 2020 Durum Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

August 12, 2020
2020 U.S. Durum Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

August 12, 2020

0.050

0.055

0.060

0.065

0.070

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 12, 2020

August 2020 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

Unit Unit

Barley Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↑ 3.5 ↑ 3.6

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.8 ↑ 2.3 ↑ 1.4 ↑ 3.7

Pima Cotton Lb Bale

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N/A N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 14.7 ↓ 15.0 ↓ 4.8 ↓ 19.1

Upland Cotton Lb Bale

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N/A N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.2 ↓ 20.5 ↑ 14.7 ↓ 8.9

Dry Edible Beans Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 2.5 ↑ 2.5 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 26.5 ↑ 33.5 ↑ 18.0 ↑ 57.6

Alfalfa Hay Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 2.3 ↓ 3.7 ↓ 5.9

Other Hay Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 1.0 ↓ 1.4 ↓ 0.5

N/A 16,352

N/A 36,029

2,797

Yield

(Units per Acre)

51,660

73,590

195 190

11,990 9,057

1,628 1,571

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

1,402

929

2,088

3.16

2.04

32,807

Production

(1,000 Units)

175,917

555

17,525

2,232 78.8
August 12, 2020

August 2020 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

Unit Unit

Hops Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 4.6 ↑ 0.1 ↑ 4.6

Oats Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 0.3 ↓ 0.2

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 11.5 ↑ 20.8 ↑ 1.1 ↑ 22.1

Peanuts Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.0 ↑ 5.8 ↑ 6.8 ↑ 13.0

Rice Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 15.0 ↑ 16.1 ↑ 1.7 ↑ 18.1

Sorghum Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.7 ↑ 3.6 ↑ 4.9 ↑ 8.7

2,921 2,870 7,600 218,112

5,620 4,845 76.6 371,055

65.0 64,907

1,514 1,473 4,218 6,213,200

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)

N/A 59.2 1,982 117,229

3,134 998
August 12, 2020

August 2020 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

Unit Unit

Sugarbeets Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 1.4 ↑ 15.1 ↑ 7.5 ↑ 23.8

Sugarcane Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 0.4 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 1.2 ↑ 3.4 ↑ 4.8

Tobacco Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 3.9 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 13.4 ↓ 8.2 ↓ 20.4

All Wheat Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↑ 0.8 ↑ 0.8

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.0 ↓ 1.3 ↓ 3.1 ↓ 4.3

N/A 197 1,892 372,340

44,250 36,678 50.1 1,837,637

1,148 1,127 31.4 35,393

N/A 924 36.2 33,478

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)
August 12, 2020

August 2020 Noncitrus Fruit

Production

Unit

Apples Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 3.3

Cranberries Brl

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 13.3

Grapes Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 4.5

Peaches Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 5.3

Pears Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 9.7

646

800

Production

(1,000 Units)

10,650,000

8,970

7,180

9.4

9.0

10.5

11.9

10.1

11.5 11.6

10.2

11.0 10.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Billion Pounds

Apple Production

United States

7.41 7.53

8.63

7.88 7.62 7.70 7.38 7.60

6.87 7.18

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Million Tons

Grape Production

United States
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August 12, 2020

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August 12, 2020
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