Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

October 9, 2020
Special Note

October 9, 2020

Each October, NASS has the opportunity to revise planted and harvested acreage 

estimates for corn, sorghum, soybeans, sunflower, canola, sugarbeets, and dry 

edible beans. Revisions are based on all available data, including the latest certified 

acreage data from the Farm Service Agency (FSA). All States in the estimating 

program for these crops were subject to review and updating. 
Data Sources

October 9, 2020

October 2020 Ag Yield Sample Sizes

Operator Reported

Survey

Field Objective Yield

Survey Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through

(Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt September 28

FSA

Certified Acres

Ag Yield Sample Size = 10,160 September 29 - October 5

Sample Size = 3,930 September 24 - October 1

Farm Service Agency policy requires that producers participating in several 

programs submit an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms.
United States Corn Progress

Percent Harvested

October 9, 2020

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 12/6

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
October 2020 Corn

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 9, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Iowa 13,700 ↑ 1.5 12,700 ↓ 2.7 186 ↓ 6.1 2,362,200 ↓ 8.6

Illinois 11,400 ↑ 8.6 11,200 ↑ 9.8 200 ↑ 10.5 2,240,000 ↑ 21.3

Nebraska 10,200 ↑ 1.0 9,830 ↑ 0.2 187 ↑ 2.7 1,838,210 ↑ 3.0

Minnesota 8,000 ↑ 2.6 7,550 ↑ 4.1 202 ↑ 16.8 1,525,100 ↑ 21.6

Indiana 5,400 ↑ 8.0 5,250 ↑ 8.9 189 ↑ 11.8 992,250 ↑ 21.8

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Planted Harvested Yield Production

90,978 82,527 178.4 14,721,705

↓ ↓

↑ ↑

Top 5 States - By Production

1.4

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

1.1

1.5 ↑ 6.5 ↑ 8.1

1.1 ↓ 0.1 ↓ 1.2
October 2020 Corn Acres

United States

October 9, 2020

Million Acres

91.9

97.3

95.4

90.6

88.0

94.0

90.2

88.9

89.7

91.0

83.9

87.4 87.5

83.1

80.8

86.7

82.7

81.3 81.3

82.5

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Planted Harvested
108.6

131.5

100.7

138.6

113.5

127.1126.7

134.4133.8

136.9138.2

129.3

142.2

160.3

147.9149.1150.7

153.3

164.4

152.6

146.8

123.1

158.1

171.0

168.4

174.6

176.6176.4

167.5

178.4

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

October 2020 Corn Yield

United States

October 9, 2020

Bushels per Acre
October 2020 Corn Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

October 9, 2020
October 2020 Corn

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

October 9, 2020
October 2020 Corn Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

October 9, 2020

Percent

16

17

41

13

49

1

25

0

70

96

73

96

51

96

80

96

29

94

68

0 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 October November October November October November October November October November October November

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mature Dent
October 2020 Corn Objective Yield

Ears per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region

October 9, 2020

Ears per Acre Bushels per Acre

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

27,000

27,500

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Ears per Acre Yield
12.3

10.8

13.8 14.2

13.6

15.1 14.6 14.3

13.6

14.7

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

October 2020 Corn Production

United States

October 9, 2020

Billion Bushels
2020 U.S. Corn Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

October 9, 2020

14.5

14.6

14.7

14.8

14.9

15.0

15.1

15.2

15.3

15.4

15.5

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Soybean Progress

Percent Harvested

October 9, 2020

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
October 2020 Soybeans

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 9, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Illinois 10,300 ↑ 3.5 10,250 ↑ 4.0 60.0 ↑ 11.1 615,000 ↑ 15.5

Iowa 9,400 ↑ 2.2 9,320 ↑ 2.2 56.0 ↑ 1.8 521,920 ↑ 4.1

Minnesota 7,400 ↑ 8.0 7,330 ↑ 8.3 52.0 ↑ 18.2 381,160 ↑ 28.0

Indiana 5,700 ↑ 5.6 5,680 ↑ 6.0 60.0 ↑ 17.6 340,800 ↑ 24.7

Nebraska 5,200 ↑ 6.1 5,150 ↑ 6.4 60.0 ↑ 2.6 309,000 ↑ 9.1

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 9.8

83,105 82,289 51.9 4,267,890

↓ 0.9 ↓ 0.9 N C ↓ 1.0

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

↑ 9.5 ↑ 20.2

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 9.2
October 2020 Soybean Acres

United States

October 9, 2020

Million Acres

75.0

77.2 76.8

83.3 82.7 83.5

90.2

89.2

76.1

83.1

73.8

76.1 76.2

82.6

81.7

82.7

89.5

87.6

74.9

82.3

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Planted Harvested
34.2

37.6

32.6

41.4

35.3

37.6

38.9 38.9

36.6

38.1

39.6

38.0

33.9

42.2

43.1 42.9

41.7

39.7

44.0 43.5

42.0

40.0

44.0

47.5 48.0

51.9

49.3

50.6

47.4

51.9

29

34

39

44

49

54

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

October 2020 Soybean Yield

United States

October 9, 2020

Bushels per Acre
October 2020 Soybean Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

October 9, 2020
October 2020 Soybeans

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

October 9, 2020
October 2020 Soybean Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

October 9, 2020

54

95

53

93

49

93

57

93

25

91

64

0 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 October November October November October November October November October November October November

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mature

Percent
October 2020 Soybean Objective Yield

Pods per 18 Square Feet and Yield for 11 State Region

October 9, 2020

Pods per 18 Square Feet Bushels per Acre

35

40

45

50

55

60

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pods per 18 Square Feet Yield
October 2020 Soybean Production

United States

October 9, 2020

Billion Bushels

3.10 3.04

3.36

3.93 3.93

4.30 4.41 4.43

3.55

4.27

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 U.S. Soybean Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

October 9, 2020

4.10

4.15

4.20

4.25

4.30

4.35

4.40

4.45

4.50

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Cotton Progress

Percent Harvested

October 9, 2020

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 12/6

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
October 2020 Cotton

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 9, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

Texas 6,836 ↓ 3.2 3,880 ↓ 26.2 762 ↑ 31.8 6,160 ↓ 2.8

Georgia 1,200 ↓ 14.3 1,190 ↓ 13.8 968 ↑ 1.6 2,400 ↓ 12.4

Mississippi 530 ↓ 25.4 525 ↓ 25.0 1,198 ↑ 7.7 1,310 ↓ 19.2

Arkansas 525 ↓ 15.3 520 ↓ 14.8 1,200 ↑ 1.3 1,300 ↓ 13.7

Alabama 450 ↓ 16.7 445 ↓ 16.4 960 ↑ 3.4 890 ↓ 13.4

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

12,116 9,005 909 17,045

↓ 0.1

↓ 11.8 ↓ 22.5 ↑ 10.4 ↓ 14.4

N C N C ↓ 0.1

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
652

700

606

708

537

705

673

625

607

632

705

665

730

855

831

814

879

813

776

812

790

892

822

838

766

867

905

882

823

909

480

530

580

630

680

730

780

830

880

930

980

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

October 2020 Cotton Yield

United States

October 9, 2020

Pounds per Acre
October 2020 Cotton Yield

Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Month

October 9, 2020
October 2020 Cotton Production

United States

October 9, 2020

Million Bales

15.6

17.3

12.9

16.3

12.9

17.2

20.9

18.4

19.9

17.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
October 9, 2020

October 2020 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

Unit Unit

Canola Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.9 ↓ 0.9 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 9.2 ↓ 5.1 ↓ 1.2 ↓ 6.3

Dry Edible Beans Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 7.1 ↑ 7.1 ↓ 0.4 ↑ 6.6

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 35.4 ↑ 43.1 ↑ 17.5 ↑ 68.1

Alfalfa Hay Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C ↑ 1.9 ↑ 1.9

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 2.3 ↓ 1.8 ↓ 4.1

Other Hay Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C ↑ 2.0 ↑ 2.0

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 1.0 ↑ 0.5 ↑ 1.4

Peanuts Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 1.4 ↓ 1.4

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 16.2 ↑ 16.8 ↑ 4.9 ↑ 22.5

Rice Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate N C ↑ 0.1 ↑ 0.5 ↑ 0.6

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 19.6 ↑ 21.0 ↑ 1.3 ↑ 22.6

75,053

Production

(1,000 Units)

3,186,670

34,984

52,625

1,852 1,812 1,759

Yield

(Units per Acre)

6,695,620

226,336

1,743 1,683

N/A 16,352

N/A 36,029

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

2,079

3.22

2.08

4,125

7,567

1,665 1,623

3,037 2,991
October 9, 2020

October 2020 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

Unit Unit

Sorghum Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 3.0 ↑ 3.2 ↑ 0.3 ↑ 3.5

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 10.0 ↑ 7.0 ↑ 1.5 ↑ 8.5

Sugarbeets Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 1.5 ↑ 1.9 N C ↑ 1.9

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.9 ↑ 17.3 ↑ 6.8 ↑ 25.2

Sugarcane Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C N C ↓ 0.2

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 2.1 ↑ 4.6 ↑ 6.7

Sunflower Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 10.0 ↑ 10.1 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 25.8 ↑ 29.4 ↑ 10.9 ↑ 43.5

Tobacco Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 0.2 ↑ 5.5 ↑ 5.3

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 13.9 ↓ 3.7 ↓ 17.2

1,165 1,149 31.2 35,815

N/A 932 36.6 34,083

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)

5,790 5,000 74.1 370,585

1,699 1,623 1,730 2,807,115

N/A 195 1,983 387,585
October 9, 2020

October 2020 Fruit and Nuts

Production

Unit

Pecans Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 14.2

Production

(1,000 Units)

292,000

270

302

266 264

254

269

305

241

256

292

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Million Pounds

Pecan Production

United States
October 9, 2020

October 2020 Citrus

Utilized Production

All Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 10.9

Non-Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.2

Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 8.9

Grapefruit

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 0.7

Lemons

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 15.3

Tangerines

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 4.7

972

4,649

2,770

1,879

539

932

Production

(1,000 Tons)

11.63

11.07

9.37 9.03 8.73

7.70

6.08

8.14 7.78

7.09

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million Tons

All Citrus Production

United States

8.98

8.27

6.77

6.35 6.09

5.09

3.88

5.43 5.22

4.65

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million Tons

All Orange Production

United States
Selected Upcoming Reports

October 9, 2020

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

Cotton Ginnings

Organics

Cattle on Feed

Rice Stocks

October 30 Agricultural Prices

Cotton System

Fats and Oils

Flour Milling

Grain Crushings

Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

October 22

October 23

November 2

November 10
USDA NASS Data Users’ Meeting

October 9, 2020

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

12:30 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. EDT

For more information and to register please go to

www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Meeting/index.php
#StatChat

October 9, 2020
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-2127

(800) 727-9540

nass@usda.gov