12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

October Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

October 11, 2018
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

Field Crops Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops

Corn Citrus Dry Beans

Soybeans Pecans Tobacco

Cotton Sugarbeets

Rice Sugarcane

Peanuts

Sorghum

Alfalfa Hay

Other Hay

Canola

Sunflowers

Spring Potatoes

Contents
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

Tree 

Inventory

Limb Count

Objective

Surveys

(Size and 

Drop)

Survey Type Field

Observations

Field

Observations

Field

Observations

Crops Included All All All

Sample Size 248,505.6 

acres

3,358 groves 1,989 groves

Collection 

Period

Oct 18, 2017 -

Jun 15, 2018

Jul 6 - Sept 21 Sept 4 - 25

Survey Overview

Florida Citrus
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

October 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Production

Oranges Mil Tons 5.62 NA +43.4

Grapefruit Thou Tons 689 NA +33.3

Tangerines & 

Mandarins Thou Tons 977 NA +21.5

Lemons Thou Tons 856 NA -3.6
9.8

13.00

13.0 12.2

11.5

12.9

9.3 9.02

9.02

10.08

9.1

9.13

8.24 8.98

8.27

6.77

6.35

6.09

5.09

3.92

5.62

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Million Tons

Orange Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-11-18
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

Ag Yield Objective Yield

Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement

Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Sample Size 11,190 4,952

Collection Period Sept 29 – Oct 3 Sept 24 – Oct 1

Survey Overview
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

October 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2018 Estimate Season 

Planted Area

Corn Mil Ac 89.1 +<0.1 -1.1

Soybeans Mil Ac 89.1 -0.5 -1.1

Sorghum Mil Ac 5.79 -4.1 +3.0

Sunflowers Mil Ac 1.30 -10.9 -7.2

Canola Mil Ac 1.99 -3.1 -4.2

Dry Edible Beans Mil Ac 2.08 +1.2 -0.7

Sugarbeets Mil Ac 1.12 -0.2 -0.8
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

October 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Corn

Harvested Mil Ac 81.8 -<0.1 -1.1

Yield Bu/Ac 180.7 -0.3 +2.3

Production Bil Bu 14.8 -0.3 +1.2
9.76 9.43 9.92 9.50

8.97

10.1

11.8

11.1

10.5

13.0

12.0

13.1

12.4 12.3

10.8

13.8

14.2 13.6

15.1

14.6 14.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Billion Bushels

Corn for Grain Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-11-18
USDA-NASS

10-11-18
USDA-NASS

10-11-18
2004

2005 2006 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017 Aug-18 Sept-18

Oct-18

0.260

0.270

0.280

0.290

0.300

0.310

0.320

0.330

0.340

0.350

0.360

0.370

25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500

Lbs/Ear

Ears Per Acre

Corn Objective Yield Region

Ears Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight

Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears

USDA-NASS

10-11-18
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

Year Dent Stage Mature

Percent

2014 39 53

2015 16 70

2016 17 73

2017 41 51

2018 13 80

Corn Objective Yield - October

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

NASS

Forecast

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

14.1

14.3

14.5

14.7

14.9

15.1

15.3

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

2018 United States Corn Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

October 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Soybeans

Harvested Mil Ac 88.3 -0.6 -1.3

Yield Bu/Ac 53.1 +0.6 +7.7

Production Bil Bu 4.69 -0.1 +6.3
2.74 2.65

2.76

2.89

2.76

2.45

3.12 3.07

3.20

2.68

2.97

3.36 3.33

3.10 3.04

3.36

3.93 3.93

4.30

4.41

4.69

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Billion Bushels

Soybean Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-11-18
USDA-NASS

10-11-18
USDA-NASS

10-11-18
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 2014 2015

2017 2016

Sept-18

Oct-18

0.260

0.265

0.270

0.275

0.280

0.285

0.290

0.295

0.300

0.305

0.310

0.315

0.320

0.325

0.330

0.335

0.340

0.345

0.350

1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900

Grams/Pod

Pods Per 18 Square Feet

Soybean Objective Yield Region

Pods Per 18 Square Feet vs. Implied Pod Weight

Implied Pod Weight = (Published Yield / Pods) /0.0889

USDA-NASS

10-11-18
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

Year Mature

Percent

2014 35

2015 54

2016 53

2017 49

2018 57

Soybean Objective Yield - October

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

NASS

Forecast

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

4.25

4.35

4.45

4.55

4.65

4.75

4.85

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

2018 United States Soybean Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

October 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

All Cotton

Harvested Mil Ac 10.5 -0.3 -5.2

Yield Lb/Ac 901 +0.7 -0.4

Production Mil Bls 19.8 +0.4 -5.5
13.9

17.0 17.2

20.3

17.2

18.3

23.3 23.9

21.6

19.2

12.8

12.2

18.1

15.6

17.3

12.9

16.3

12.9

17.2

20.9

19.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Million Bales

All Cotton Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-11-18
USDA-NASS

10-11-18
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

October 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Rice

Harvested Mil Ac 2.90 NC +22.2

Yield Lbs/Ac 7,539 -0.3 +0.4

Production Mil Cwt 219 -0.3 +22.8
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

October 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Peanuts

Harvested Mil Ac 1.38 -0.2 -22.0

Yield Lbs/Ac 4,167 +0.4 +4.0

Production Bil Lbs 5.77 +0.2 -18.9
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

October 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Sorghum

Harvested Mil Ac 5.09 -3.8 +1.0

Yield Bu/Ac 75.0 +5.5 +4.0

Production Mil Bu 382 +1.5 +5.0
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

October 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Alfalfa Hay

Harvested Mil Ac 17.4 NC +4.8

Yield Tons/Ac 3.43 +3.0 +3.3

Production Mil Tons 59.5 +3.0 +8.1
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

October 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

All Other Hay

Harvested Mil Ac 37.7 NC +1.3

Yield Tons/Ac 1.98 +5.3 -3.4

Production Mil Tons 74.9 +5.8 -2.0
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

October 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Production 

Sugarcane Mil Tons 33.1 +1.1 -0.4

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 35.2 -2.2 -0.3

All Tobacco Mil Lbs 548 -14.0 -22.9
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

October 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Production

Canola Bil Lbs 3.62 NA +16.0

Sunflowers Bil Lbs 1.93 NA -10.2
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

October 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Production

Dry Edible Beans Mil Cwt 37.8 +5.3 +5.6

Pecans Mil Lbs 279 NA -5.1

Spring Potatoes Mil Cwt 15.4 -12.3 -22.2
USDA-NASS

10-11-18

Release Date Title

October 19 Cattle on Feed

October 23 Cotton Ginnings

October 26 Rice Stocks 

October 30 Agricultural Prices

November 1 CAIR: Cotton, Fats & Oils, Flour Milling, and Grain Crushings

November 8 Crop Production

Upcoming Events
USDA-NASS

10-11-18
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National Agricultural Statistics Service

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