12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

July Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

July 12, 2016
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Field Crops Fruit and Nuts Specialty Crops

Winter Wheat Citrus Tobacco

Other Spring Wheat Apricots

Durum Wheat Almonds

Barley

Oats

Contents
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Ag Yield Objective Yield

Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement

Crops Included

Winter, Spring & Durum 

Wheat, Oats, Barley, 

Tobacco

Winter Wheat

States 36 10

Sample Size 7,403 1,470

Collection Period June 29 – July 7 June 25 – July 1

Survey Overview
25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Percent

U.S. Winter Wheat Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percent

U.S. Winter Wheat Progress

Percent Harvested

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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July 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Wheat, Winter

Harvested Mil Ac 30.2 +1.2 -6.5

Yield Bu/Ac 53.9 +6.7 +26.8

Production Bil Bu 1.63 +8.0 +18.8

Production by Class

Hard Red Mil Bu 1,034 +10.3 +25.1

Soft Red Mil Bu 370 +4.4 +3.1

White Mil Bu 224 +4.3 +21.3
53.9

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Bushels per Acre Winter Wheat Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

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NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

Winter Wheat Objective Yield - July

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

Year Mature

---Percent---

2011 60

2012 77

2013 55

2014 58

2015 64

2016 68
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 2015

Jun-16

Jul-16

0.530

0.540

0.550

0.560

0.570

0.580

0.590

0.600

0.610

0.620

0.630

0.640

0.650

0.660

0.670

38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

Grams/Head

Heads Per Square Foot

Wheat Objective Yield Region

Heads Per Square Foot vs. Implied Head Weight

Implied Head Weight = Published Yield / (Heads*1.6006)

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High

Of Expectations
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NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Wheat, Spring

Harvested Mil Ac 11.8 NC -8.5

Yield Bu/Ac 46.5 NA +0.4

Production Mil Bu 550 NA -8.1

July 2016 Crop Production
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% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Wheat, Durum

Harvested Mil Ac 2.08 NC +9.8

Yield Bu/Ac 39.8 NA -8.5

Production Mil Bu 82.8 NA +0.3

July 2016 Crop Production
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July 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Wheat, All

Harvested Mil Ac 44.1 NC -6.4

Yield Bu/Ac 51.3 NA +17.7

Production Bil Bu 2.26 NA +10.2
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July 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Oats

Harvested Mil Ac 1.17 NC -8.7

Yield Bu/Ac 65.8 NA -6.3

Production Mil Bu 76.6 NA -14.4

Barley

Harvested Mil Ac 2.58 NC -17.1

Yield Bu/Ac 70.9 NA +2.9

Production Mil Bu 183 NA -14.7
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July 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Production

Oranges Mil Tons 5.92 +1.5 -7.0

Grapefruit Thou Tons 810 -1.8 -9.0

Lemons Thou Tons 934 +3.8 +3.3

Tangelos Thou Tons 17.6 NC -41.3

Tangerines & 

Mandarins Thou Tons 948 NC +10.9
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July 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2016 Estimate Season 

Tobacco, Flue-Cured

Harvested Thou Ac 209 NC -5.0

Yield Lbs/Ac 2,324 NA +5.2

Production Mil Lbs 486 NA -0.1
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July 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Production 

Almonds (CA) Bil Lbs 2.05 +2.5 +7.9

Apricots Thou Tons 61.4 NA +47.4
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Release Date Report Title

July 22 Cattle on Feed

July 29 Agricultural Prices

August 1

CAIR: Cotton

CAIR: Flour Millings

CAIR: Grain Crushings

CAIR: Fats & Oils

August 4 Farm Production Expenditures

August 12 Crop Production

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