Hogs & Pigs Inventory

September 1, 2015

Executive Briefing

September 25, 2015

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview

September Hogs & Pigs

Data Collection Period August 31 – September 15

Sample Size 8,130

Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview

Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter

sows farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

September 25, 2015
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Previous 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

December 1, 2014 All Hogs 

and Pigs 66,050 +1,676

+2.5%

+50

+0.1%

+1,726

+2.6% 67,776

March 1, 2015 All Hogs 

and Pigs 65,934 +700+1.1%

+765

+1.2%

+1,465

+2.2% 67,399

Pig Crop 28,758 +208

+0.7%

+664

+2.3%

+872

+3.0% 29,630

June 1, 2015 All Hogs 

and Pigs 66,900 00.0% 66,900

September 25, 2015
U.S. Hogs & Pigs September 1

Items 2014 2015 % PY

1,000 head

All Hogs & Pigs 65,979 68,395 104

Breeding Hogs 5,920 5,986 101

Market Hogs 60,059 62,410 104

180 lbs & over 10,098 11,053 109

120-179 lbs 12,112 13,080 108

50-119 lbs 17,458 17,986 103

less than 50 lbs 20,390 20,291 100

Sows Farrowed 2,991 2,944 98

Pig Crop 30,402 30,585 101

number

Pigs per Litter 10.16 10.39 102

1,000 head

September-November Farrowings 2,994 2,920 98

December-February Farrowings 2,895 2,875 99

September 25, 2015
66.0

68.4

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Million head

U.S. Quarterly Hogs & Pigs

2006 - 2015

September 25, 2015
NASS Estimates Compared

to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items

NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 103.7% 103.6% 103.0% – 104.7%

Breeding Hogs 101.1% 100.3% 99.0% – 101.0%

Market Hogs 103.9% 103.9% 103.0% – 105.1%

Jun – Aug Pig Crop 100.6% 100.4% 99.0% – 103.0%

Farrowing Intentions

Sep – Nov 2015 97.5% 97.2% 95.7% – 99.5%

Dec 2015 – Feb 2016 99.3% 99.1% 95.7% – 101.2%

September 25, 2015
59

61

63

65

67

69

71

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Million head

ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range

All Hogs and Pigs

First Estimate Versus Final Estimate

2006 - 2015

September 25, 2015
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2006-2015

2.94

2.92

2.87

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Million head

Jun-Aug Estimate Sep-Nov Intentions Dec-Feb Intentions

September 25, 2015
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Jun 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Sep 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2006 6,080 896 915 6,099 48

2007 6,169 945 984 6,208 51

2008 6,131 1,017 947 6,061 50

2009 5,968 963 870 5,875 50

2010 5,788 818 800 5,770 51

2011 5,803 848 851 5,806 50

2012 5,862 859 785 5,788 50

2013 5,884 796 728 5,816 49

2014 5,855 751 816 5,920 51

2015 5,926 798 858 5,986 50

September 25, 2015
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2006-2015

10.37

10.16

10.39

9.0

9.3

9.6

9.9

10.2

10.5

10.8

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

September 25, 2015
U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

June-August 2015

10.39

8.00

8.70

9.10

9.50

10.10

10.40

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000+

Pigs per Litter

Size of Operation

September 25, 2015
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter

September 25, 2015
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs & Corn

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Corn $/bu

Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn

September 25, 2015
Upcoming NASS Reports

Release Date Report Title

September 29 Agricultural Prices

September 30 Grain Stocks

Small Grains Summary

Turkeys Raised

October 1 CAIR: 

Cotton System Consumption and Stocks

Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production

Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, 

Consumption and Stocks

October 9 Crop Production

October 20 Milk Production

October 23 Cattle on Feed

October 29 Overview of the US Hog Industry

September 25, 2015
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 25, 2015