January Cattle

Executive Summary

Travis Averill, Chief

Livestock Branch

January 29, 2021
January 2021 Cattle Survey

Sample Sizes

January 29, 2021
January 2021 Cattle Survey

Drought Maps

January 29, 2021
U.S. Cattle and Calves Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

July 1, 2019 All cattle and calves 103,000 -300 -400 102,600

Calf crop 36,300 -468 -708 35,592

January 1, 2020 All cattle and calves 94,413 -620 -620 93,793

Calf crop 36,060 -468 -468 35,592

July 1, 2020 All cattle and calves 103,000 -800 -800 102,200

Calf crop 35,800 -664 -664 35,136

January 29, 2021
January 1 Cattle and Calves

United States 2020 2021 % Change from

(1,000 head) Previous Year

All cattle and calves 93,793 93,595 ↓ 0.2

88

92

96

100

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Million head

January 1 All Cattle and Calves

United States 

January 29, 2021

Top 5 States

Inventory

(1,000 head)

Texas 13,100

Nebraska 6,850

Kansas 6,500

Oklahoma 5,300

California 5,150
January 1, 2021 Cattle and Calves

(1,000) Head and Percent Change from Previous Year

January 29, 2021
January 1 Cows

United States 2020 2021 % Change from 

(1,000 head) Previous Year

All cows and heifers that have calved 40,681 40,598 ↓ 0.2

Beef cows 31,339 31,158 ↓ 0.6

Milk cows 9,343 9,440 ↑ 1.0

28

30

32

34

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Million head

January 1 Beef Cows

United States

8.9

9.1

9.3

9.5

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Million head

January 1 Milk Cows

United States

January 29, 2021
January 1 Heifers

United States 2020 2021 % Change from 

(1,000 head) Previous Year

All heifers 500 pounds and over 20,024 20,000 ↓ 0.1

Beef cow replacement 5,809 5,812 ↑ 0.1

Milk cow replacement 4,684 4,605 ↓ 1.7

Other heifers 9,532 9,584 ↑ 0.5

18

19

20

21

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Million head

January 1 All Heifers

United States

January 29, 2021
January 1 Steers, Bulls, and Calves

United States 2020 2021 % Change from

(1,000 head) Previous Year

Steers 500 pounds and over 16,541 16,598 ↑ 0.3

Bulls 500 pounds and over 2,237 2,211 ↓ 1.2

Calves under 500 pounds 14,309 14,188 ↓ 0.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Million head

January 1 Steers, Bulls, and Calves

United States

Steers Bulls Calves

January 29, 2021
Calf Crop

United States 2019 2020 % Change from

(1,000 head) Previous Year

January 1 – June 30 26,000.0 25,750.0 ↓ 1.0

July 1 – December 31 9,591.6 9,385.5 ↓ 2.1

Total 35,591.6 35,135.5 ↓ 1.3

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Million head

Calf Crop

United States

January 29, 2021
Trade Expectations Compared to NASS Estimates 

Percent of Previous Year

January 29, 2021
All Cattle and Calves

First Estimate vs Final Estimate

January 29, 2021

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Trade Range ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate
14%

18%

22%

26%

30%

34%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

All Cow Heifer

Herd rebuilding 

January 29, 2021

Percent of Slaughter

All Cow and Heifer Slaughter

as a Percent of Total Slaughter
85

90

95

100

40%

45%

50%

55%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Cow and Heifer % of Slaughter Cattle Inventory of Following Year

Million head

January 29, 2021

Percent of Slaughter

Cattle Inventory vs Cow and Heifer Slaughter 

as a Percent of Slaughter
January 1 Cattle on Feed

United States 2020 2021

(1,000 head) Percent of Total (1,000 head) Percent of Total

Capacity of 1,000 head or more 11,958 81.6 11,965 81.4

Capacity of less than 1,000 head 2,700 18.4 2,742 18.6

All cattle on feed 14,658 14,707

12

13

14

15

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Million head

January 1 All Cattle on Feed

United States

January 29, 2021
January 1 Feeder Cattle Supply

United States 2020 2021 % Change from 

(1,000 head) Previous Year

Calves under 500 pounds 14,309 14,188 ↓ 0.8

Steers and other heifers 500 pounds and over 26,073 26,181 ↑ 0.4

Total supply 40,382 40,369 ↓ 0.0

All cattle on feed 14,658 14,707 ↑ 0.3

Feeder cattle supply 25,724 25,662 ↓ 0.2

24

26

28

30

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Million head

January 1 Feeder Cattle Supply

United States

January 29, 2021
January 2021 Sheep and Goat Survey

Sample Sizes

January 29, 2021
January 1 Sheep and Lambs

United States 2020 2021 % Change from

(1,000 head) Previous Year

All sheep and lambs 5,200 5,170 ↓ 0.6

Market 1,390 1,390 - 0.0

Breeding 3,810 3,780 ↓ 0.8

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Million head

January 1 All Sheep and Lambs

United States 

January 29, 2021

Top 5 States

Inventory

(1,000 head)

Texas 730

California 555

Colorado 445

Wyoming 340

Utah 285
January 1, 2021 Sheep and Lambs

(1,000) Head and Percent Change from Previous Year

January 29, 2021
January 1 Breeding Sheep and Lambs

United States 2020 2021 % Change from

(1,000 head) Previous Year

Breeding sheep and lambs 3,810 3,780 ↓ 0.8

Replacement lambs under one year old 660 650 ↓ 1.5

Ewes one year and older 2,980 2,960 ↓ 0.7

Rams one year old and older 170 170 - 0.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Million head

January 1 Lambs, Ewes, and Rams

United States

Lambs Ewes Rams

January 29, 2021
Lamb Crop

United States 2019 2020 % Change from

(1,000 head) Previous Year

Lamb crop 3,230 3,210 ↓ 0.6

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Million head

Lamb Crop

United States

January 29, 2021
U.S. Goats and Kids Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

January 1, 2020

All goats and kids 2,660 -5 -5 2,655

Kid crop 1,640 0 0 1,640

January 29, 2021
January 1 Goats and Kids

United States 2020 2021 % Change from

(1,000 head) Previous Year

All goats and kids 2,655 2,582 ↓ 2.7

Market 478 465 ↓ 2.7

Breeding 2,177 2,117 ↓ 2.8

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Million head

January 1 All Goats and Kids

United States 

January 29, 2021
January 1 Breeding Goats and Kids

United States 2020 2021 % Change from

(1,000 head) Previous Year

Breeding goats and kids 2,177 2,117 ↓ 2.8

Replacement kids under one year old 399 388 ↓ 2.8

Does one year old and older 1,615 1,570 ↓ 2.8

Bucks one year old and older 163 159 ↓ 2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Million head

January 1 Kids, Does, and Bucks

United States

Kids Does Bucks

January 29, 2021
Kid Crop

United States 2019 2020 % Change from

(1,000 head) Previous Year

Kid crop 1,640 1,655 ↑ 0.9

1.6

1.8

2.0

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Million head

Kid Crop

United States

January 29, 2021
Highlight of Upcoming Reports

February 1 Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Flour 

Milling, Grain Crushings

February 4 Dairy Products

February 9 Crop Production

Cotton Ginnings

February 11 Labor

February 19 Cattle on Feed

Farms and Land in Farms

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

January 29, 2021
USDA AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM

Registration is Now Open to USDA's 97th Agricultural Outlook 

Forum!

Building on Innovation: A Pathway to Resilience

Join us for this virtual event on February 18-19, 2021

The Forum is free to attend

Register Today

January 29, 2021
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@usda.gov