Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

September 27, 2018

Executive Briefing

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview

September Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period Aug 31 – September 15

Sample Size 6,524

Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview

Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by class, weight group;

Sows Farrowing; Pig Crop; and Pigs per Litter

September 27, 2018
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Previous 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

September 1, 2017 All Hogs 

and Pigs 73,549 +10+0.01%

-250

-0.3%

-240

-0.3% 73,309

Pig Crop 33,048 +196

+0.6%

-169

-0.5%

+27

+0.1% 33,075

December 1, 2017 All Hogs 

and Pigs 73,230 +465+0.6%

-250

-0.3%

+215

+0.3% 73,445

Pig Crop 33,399 +225

+0.7%

-168

-0.5%

+57

+0.2% 33,456

March 1, 2018 All Hogs 

and Pigs 72,908 +30+0.04%

-105

-0.1%

-75

-0.1% 72,833

Pig Crop 32,341 No revision -21

-0.1%

-21

-0.1% 32,320

June 1, 2018 All Hogs 

and Pigs 73,451 No revision -325-0.4%

-325

-0.4% 73,126

September 27, 2018
U.S. Hogs and Pigs September 1

September 27, 2018

Item 2017 2018 % PY

1,000 head

All Hogs and Pigs 73,309 75,486 103

Breeding Hogs 6,117 6,330 103

Market Hogs 67,192 69,156 103

less than 50 lbs 21,533 22,092 103

50-119 lbs 19,757 20,262 103

120-179 lbs 13,874 14,356 103

180 lbs & over 12,028 12,445 103

Sows Farrowed 3,106 3,185 103

Pig Crop 33,075 34,159 103

number

Pigs per Litter 10.65 10.72 101

1,000 head

Sep-Nov Farrowings 3,115 3,163 102

Dec-Feb Farrowings 3,055 3,115 102
U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

2009 - 2018

September 27, 2018

73.1

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million head

September 1 June 1

73.3

75.5
September 1, 2018 

Hogs and Pigs Inventory

Head (1,000) and Percent of Previous Year

September 27, 2018

Inventory Down Up No Change

Non-published States

3,161

99
Trade Expectations Compared

to NASS Estimates 

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items

NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs and Pigs 103.0% 103.4% 102.8% – 104.0%

Breeding Hogs 103.5% 103.1% 102.1% – 103.8%

Market Hogs 102.9% 103.5% 102.9% – 104.0%

Jun – Aug Pig Crop 103.3% 103.2% 102.1% – 104.2%

Farrowing Intentions

Sep – Nov 101.6% 101.8% 100.1% – 102.9%

Dec – Feb 102.0% 101.7% 100.5% – 103.0%

September 27, 2018
59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million head

ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range

All Hogs and Pigs

First Estimate Versus Final Estimate

2009 - 2018

September 27, 2018
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2009-2018

3.19

3.16

3.12

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million head

Jun-Aug Estimate Sep-Nov Intentions Dec-Feb Intentions

September 27, 2018
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition and Utilization

September 27, 2018

Year

Jun 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Sep 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2009 5,968 963 870 5,875 50

2010 5,788 818 800 5,770 51

2011 5,803 848 851 5,806 50

2012 5,862 859 785 5,788 50

2013 5,884 796 728 5,816 49

2014 5,855 751 816 5,920 51

2015 5,926 798 858 5,986 51

2016 5,979 802 839 6,016 51

2017 6,109 828 836 6,117 51

2018 6,320 850 860 6,330 50
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2009-2018

September 27, 2018

10.63

10.65 10.72

9.30

9.60

9.90

10.20

10.50

10.80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Pigs per Litter

Jun-Aug Sep-Nov
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter

September 27, 2018
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs and Corn

September 27, 2018

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Corn $/bu

Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn
Upcoming NASS Reports

Release Date Report Title

September 28 Small Grains Summary

Grain Stocks

Turkeys Raised

October 1 Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Grain Crushings

October 11 Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

October 19 Cattle on Feed

Milk Production

October 30 Agricultural Prices

September 27, 2018
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 27, 2018