12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

July Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

July 12, 2018
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

Field Crops Fruit and Nuts Specialty Crops

Winter Wheat Citrus Tobacco

Other Spring Wheat Apricots

Durum Wheat Almonds

Barley

Oats

Contents
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

Ag Yield Objective Yield

Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement

Crops Included

Winter, Other Spring, & 

Durum Wheat, Oats, 

Barley, Tobacco

Winter Wheat

States 34 10

Sample Size 6,841 1,470

Collection Period June 29 – July 9 June 23 – July 1

Survey Overview
25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Percent

U.S. Winter Wheat Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

USDA-NASS

7-12-18
USDA-NASS

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percent

U.S. Winter Wheat Progress

Percent Harvested

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

July 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Wheat, Winter

Harvested Mil Ac 24.8 NC -1.8

Yield Bu/Ac 48.0 -0.8 -4.4

Production Bil Bu 1.19 -0.4 -6.1

Production by Class

Hard Red Mil Bu 657 +1.1 -12.4

Soft Red Mil Bu 303 -4.0 +3.6

White Mil Bu 232 +0.2 +2.4
48.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Bushels per Acre Winter Wheat Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

7-12-18
USDA-NASS

7-12-18
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

Winter Wheat Objective Yield - July

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

Year Mature

---Percent---

2012 77

2013 55

2014 58

2015 64

2016 68

2017 69

2018 69
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 2015

2016

2017

Jun-18

Jul-18

0.530

0.540

0.550

0.560

0.570

0.580

0.590

0.600

0.610

0.620

0.630

0.640

0.650

0.660

0.670

0.680

0.690

0.700

38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

Grams/Head

Heads Per Square Foot

Wheat Objective Yield Region

Heads Per Square Foot vs. Implied Head Weight

Implied Head Weight = Published Yield / (Heads*1.6006)

USDA-NASS

7-12-18

High

Of Expectations
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Percent

U.S. Other Spring Wheat Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

July 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Wheat, Other Spring

Harvested Mil Ac 12.9 NC +27.0

Yield Bu/Ac 47.6 NA +16.1

Production Mil Bu 614 NA +47.5
USDA-NASS

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USDA-NASS

7-12-18

July 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Wheat, Durum

Harvested Mil Ac 1.84 NC -13.8

Yield Bu/Ac 40.7 NA +58.4

Production Mil Bu 74.9 NA +36.4
USDA-NASS

7-12-18
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

July 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

All Wheat

Harvested Mil Ac 39.6 NC +5.3

Yield Bu/Ac 47.5 NA +2.6

Production Bil Bu 1.88 NA +8.1
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

1.83

1.84

1.85

1.86

1.87

1.88

1.89

1.90

1.91

1.92

1.93

July August Final

Billion Bushels

2018 United States All Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

1.17

1.19

1.21

1.23

1.25

1.27

1.29

1.31

1.33

1.35

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

2018 United States Winter Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

650

660

July August Final

Million Bushels

2018 United States Other Spring Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

July August Final

Million Bushels

2018 United States Durum Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

July 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Oats

Harvested Mil Ac 1.01 NC +26.0

Yield Bu/Ac 65.8 NA +6.6

Production Mil Bu 66.4 NA +34.4

Barley

Harvested Mil Ac 2.05 NC +4.7

Yield Bu/Ac 75.6 NA +4.1

Production Mil Bu 155 NA +8.9
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

July 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Production

Oranges Mil Tons 3.86 -0.8 -24.1

Grapefruit Thou Tons 517 -6.5 -25.9

Tangerines & 

Mandarins Thou Tons 836 -4.6 -19.1

Lemons Thou Tons 872 NC -1.6
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

July 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Tobacco, Flue-Cured

Harvested Thou Ac 205 NC -2.4

Yield Lbs/Ac 2,111 NA -4.0

Production Mil Lbs 432 NA -6.3
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

July 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Production 

Almonds (CA) Bil Lbs 2.45 +6.5 +7.9

Apricots Thou Tons 39.8 NA -12.8
USDA-NASS

7-12-18

Release Date Report Title

July 20 Cattle

Cattle on Feed

July 30 Agricultural Prices

August 1 CAIR: Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Flour Milling, Grain Crushings

Honey Bee Colonies

August 2

Cash Rents

Farm Production Expenditures

Land Values

August 10 Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

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