12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Production - Annual

Grain Stocks

Rice Stocks

Cotton Ginnings

Winter Wheat Seedings

January Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

January 12, 2016
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

Field Crops Stocks Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops

Corn Corn Citrus Potatoes

Soybeans Soybeans Sweet Potatoes

All Cotton Sorghum Peppermint Oil

Sorghum Rice Spearmint Oil

Rice Hay Taro (Hawaii)

Hay & Forage All Wheat Hops

Peanuts Barley

Proso Millet Oats

Minor Oil

Sugarcane

Sugarbeets

Tobacco

Pulse Crops

Winter Wheat

Contents
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

December Ag Survey Off-Farm Grain Stocks

Survey Type Farmer Reported Off-Farm Grain Stock Facilities

Collection Method Mail, Phone, Internet, 

Personal Interview 

Mail, Phone, Internet, Personal 

Interview

Crops Included Field Crops

Corn, Soybeans, All Wheat, 

Durum Wheat, Barley, Oats,

Sorghum, Pulse Crops

States All except HI All except AK, HI, and NV

Sample Size 82,810 8,638

Collection Period Nov 28 – Dec 21 Nov 28 – Dec 21

Survey Overview
Year Principal Crops Change From

Previous Year

Million Acres

2006 315.6 -2.0

2007 320.4 +4.7

2008 325.6 +5.3

2009 319.0 -6.6

2010 315.4 -3.6

2011 314.3 -1.1

2012 324.3 +10.0

2013 324.9 +0.6

2014 326.4 +1.5

2015 318.5 -7.9

Principal Crops Planted Acreage

United States

USDA-NASS

1-12-16
319

305

290

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Million Acres

Principal Crops

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

1-12-16
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

2015 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

January Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Corn

Planted Mil Ac 88.0 -0.4 -2.9

Harvested Mil Ac 80.7 +0.1 -2.9

Yield Bu/Ac 168.4 -0.5 -1.5

Production Bil Bu 13.6 -0.4 -4.3

Stocks Bil Bu 11.2 NA +<0.1

Crop Unit 
168.4

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

170.0

180.0

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Bushels per Acre

Corn for Grain Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

1-12-16
USDA-NASS

1-12-16
13.6

13.5

13.6

13.8

13.4

13.5

13.6

13.7

13.8

Billion Bushels

NASS Estimate vs. Expectations

Corn Production

USDA-NASS

1-12-16

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations
12.5

14.3

13.7

14.7

14.1

13.4

11.7

14.7

15.4 15.3

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16

Billion Bushels

Corn Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

1-12-16
11.2

11.1

11.3

11.8

10.6

10.8

11.0

11.2

11.4

11.6

11.8

12.0

Billion Bushels

NASS Estimate vs. Expectations

Corn Stocks

USDA-NASS

1-12-16

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

2015 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

January Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Soybeans

Planted Mil Ac 82.7 -0.7 -0.8

Harvested Mil Ac 81.8 -0.7 -0.9

Yield Bu/Ac 48.0 -0.6 +1.1

Production Bil Bu 3.93 -1.3 +0.1

Stocks Bil Bu 2.71 NA +7.4

Crop Unit 
48

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Bushels per Acre

Soybean Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

1-12-16
USDA-NASS

1-12-16
3.93

3.96

3.98

4.04

3.86

3.88

3.90

3.92

3.94

3.96

3.98

4.00

4.02

4.04

4.06

Billion Bushels

NASS Estimate vs. Expectations

Soybean Production

USDA-NASS

1-12-16

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations
3.65

3.25

3.17

3.50 3.48

3.31

3.21

3.50

4.02

4.12

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16

Billion Bushels

Soybean Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

1-12-16
2.71

2.59

2.72

2.85

2.45

2.50

2.55

2.60

2.65

2.70

2.75

2.80

2.85

2.90

Billion Bushels

NASS Estimate vs. Expectations

Soybean Stocks

USDA-NASS

1-12-16

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

2015 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

January Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

All Cotton

Planted Mil Ac 8.58 +0.3 -22.3

Harvested Mil Ac 8.08 -0.9 -13.6

Yield Lb/Ac 769 +0.1 -8.2

Production Mil Bls 12.9 -0.7 -20.7

Crop Unit 
769

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Pounds per Acre

All Cotton Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

1-12-16
USDA-NASS

1-12-16
12.9

12.8

13.0

13.1

12.5

12.6

12.7

12.8

12.9

13.0

13.1

13.2

Million Bales

NASS Estimate vs. Expectations

Cotton Production

USDA-NASS

1-12-16

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

2015 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

January Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Sorghum

Planted Mil Ac 8.46 -2.2 +18.5

Harvested Mil Ac 7.85 +2.7 +22.7

Yield Bu/Ac 76.0 -2.2 +12.4

Production Mil Bu 597 +0.5 +38.0

Stocks Mil Bu 314 NA +41.1

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

2015 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

January Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Rice

Planted Mil Ac 2.61 +0.1 -11.5

Harvested Mil Ac 2.58 +0.2 -12.2

Yield Lbs/Ac 7,470 +0.6 -1.4

Production Mil Cwt 192 +0.8 -13.4

Stocks Mil Cwt 145 NA -8.2

Crop Unit 
232 233

228

245

262

211

235

220

249

235

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16

Million Hundredweight

Rough Rice Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Aug

USDA-NASS

1-12-16
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

2015 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

January Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

All Hay

Harvested Mil Ac 54.4 -3.7 -4.6

Yield Tons/Ac 2.47 -2.0 +0.8

Production Mil Tons 134 -5.6 -4.0

Stocks Mil Tons 95.0 NA +3.2

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

1-12-16
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

2015 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

January Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Production 

All Other Hay Mil Tons 75.4 -4.8 -3.9

Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 59.0 -6.7 -4.0

Proso Millet Mil Bu 14.2 NA +5.0

Peanuts Bil Lbs 6.21 +0.7 +19.8

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

2015 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

January Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Production

Canola Bil Lbs 2.88 -7.0 +14.4

Cottonseed Mil Tons 4.15 -0.7 -19.0

Flaxseed Mil Bu 10.1 NA +58.5

Mustard Seed Mil Lbs 26.9 NA -7.2

Rapeseed Mil Lbs 1.52 NA -41.3

Safflower Mil Lbs 214 NA +2.7

Sunflowers Bil Lbs 2.92 +0.6 +31.8

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

2015 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

January Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Production 

Sugarcane Mil Tons 32.5 +1.3 +7.0

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 35.3 +0.2 +12.8

All Tobacco Mil Lbs 711 +0.7 -18.8

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

2015 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

January Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Production

A. Winter Peas Thou Cwt 260 -5.1 +12.1

Dry Peas Mil Cwt 18.3 -6.5 +6.6

Dry Beans Mil Cwt 30.1 +1.3 +4.2

Lentils Mil Cwt 5.28 -0.9 +53.1

Wrinkled Seed Thou Cwt 384 NA -37.9

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

2015 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

January Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Production 

Potatoes Mil Cwt 440 -1.1 -0.4

Sweet Potatoes Mil Cwt 31.0 NA +4.8

Peppermint Oil Mil Lbs 5.88 NA +2.9

Spearmint Oil Mil Lbs 3.07 NA +10.3

Taro (Hawaii) Mil Lbs 3.50 NA +8.1

Hops Mil Lbs 78.8 NA +11.1

Crop Unit 
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

2015 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

January Previous Previous

2016 Estimate Year

Stocks

Wheat, All Bil Bu 1.74 NA +13.6

Barley Mil Bu 181 NA +16.0

Oats Mil Bu 82.9 NA +23.8

Crop Unit 
2.38

2.51

2.82 2.87

3.14

2.86

2.99

2.85

2.62

2.80

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16

Billion Bushels

All Wheat Stocks

United States

Supply Sep Dec Mar Jun

USDA-NASS

1-12-16
1.74

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.58

1.60

1.62

1.64

1.66

1.68

1.70

1.72

1.74

1.76

Billion Bushels

NASS Estimate vs. Expectations

All Wheat Stocks

USDA-NASS

1-12-16

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

Winter Wheat Seedings

% Change % Change

From From

January Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Wheat, Winter

Planted Mil Ac 36.6 NA -7.2

Crop Unit 
36.6

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Million Acres Winter Wheat Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

1-12-16
USDA-NASS

1-12-16
36.6

38.3

39.3

40.8

34.0

35.0

36.0

37.0

38.0

39.0

40.0

41.0

42.0

Million Acres

NASS Estimate vs. Expectations

Winter Wheat Area Seeded

USDA-NASS

1-12-16

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

Objective Surveys 

(Size and Drop) Fruit Maturity Row Count

Survey Type Field Observations Laboratory Tests Field Observations

Crops Included Oranges excl. Navels

Grapefruit

Late tangerines

Oranges excl. 

Navels

Non-Valencia

Oranges and 

Tangelos

Sample Size 1,663 groves 273 samples 59,992 rows

Collection Period Dec 11-23 Dec 30-31 Dec 30-31

Test Period -- Jan 4-5 --

Survey Overview

Florida Citrus
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

January 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season 

Production

Oranges Mil Tons 5.25 -0.6 -17.8

Grapefruit Thou Tons 811 +2.8 -6.8

Lemons Thou Tons 864 +2.4 -4.0

Tangelos Thou Tons 18.0 NC -41.9

Tangerines & 

Mandarins Thou Tons 907 +7.8 +7.6
USDA-NASS

1-12-16

Release Date Report Title

January 22 Cotton Ginnings

Cattle on Feed

January 29

Agricultural Prices

Cattle

Sheep and Goats

February 1

CAIR: Cotton System

CAIR: Fats & Oils

CAIR: Flour Milling

CAIR: Grain Crushing

February 9 Crop Production

February 24 Crop Values

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