12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

July Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

July 11, 2019
USDA-NASS

7-11-19

Field Crops Fruit and Nuts Specialty Crops

Winter Wheat Citrus Tobacco

Other Spring Wheat Apricots

Durum Wheat Almonds

Barley

Oats

Contents
USDA-NASS

7-11-19

Ag Yield Objective Yield

Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement

Crops Included

Winter, Other Spring, & 

Durum Wheat, Oats, 

Barley, Tobacco

Winter Wheat

States 34 10

Sample Size 5,989 1,040

Collection Period June 29 – July 8 June 24 – July 1

Survey Overview
25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Percent

U.S. Winter Wheat Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

USDA-NASS

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USDA-NASS

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percent

U.S. Winter Wheat Progress

Percent Harvested

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
USDA-NASS

7-11-19

July 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Wheat, Winter

Harvested Mil Ac 24.9 NC +0.7

Yield Bu/Ac 51.8 +2.6 +8.1

Production Bil Bu 1.29 +1.3 +9.0

Production by Class

Hard Red Mil Bu 804 +1.3 +21.5

Soft Red Mil Bu 259 +0.3 -9.2

White Mil Bu 227 +2.4 -3.9
51.8

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Bushels per Acre Winter Wheat Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

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USDA-NASS

7-11-19
USDA-NASS

7-11-19

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

Winter Wheat Objective Yield - July

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

Year Mature

---Percent---

2013 55

2014 58

2015 64

2016 68

2017 69

2018 69

2019 50
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 2015

2016

2017

2018 Jun - 19

Jul - 19

0.530

0.540

0.550

0.560

0.570

0.580

0.590

0.600

0.610

0.620

0.630

0.640

0.650

0.660

0.670

0.680

0.690

0.700

0.710

38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

Grams/Head

Heads Per Square Foot

Wheat Objective Yield Region

Heads Per Square Foot vs. Implied Head Weight

Implied Head Weight = Published Yield / (Heads*1.6006)

USDA-NASS

7-11-19

High

Of Expectations
USDA-NASS

7-11-19

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

July 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Wheat, Other Spring

Harvested Mil Ac 12.1 NC -6.0

Yield Bu/Ac 47.2 NA -2.3

Production Mil Bu 572 NA -8.2
USDA-NASS

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USDA-NASS

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July 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Wheat, Durum

Harvested Mil Ac 1.36 NC -31.1

Yield Bu/Ac 42.9 NA +9.2

Production Mil Bu 58.1 NA -24.8
USDA-NASS

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USDA-NASS

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July 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

All Wheat

Harvested Mil Ac 38.4 NC -3.0

Yield Bu/Ac 50.0 NA +5.0

Production Bil Bu 1.92 NA +1.9
USDA-NASS

7-11-19

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

1.86

1.88

1.90

1.92

1.94

1.96

July August Final

Billion Bushels

2019 United States All Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

7-11-19

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

2019 United States Winter Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

7-11-19

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

510

525

540

555

570

585

600

615

630

July August Final

Million Bushels

2019 United States Other Spring Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

7-11-19

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

July August Final

Million Bushels

2019 United States Durum Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

7-11-19

July 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Oats

Harvested Thou Ac 909 NC +5.1

Yield Bu/Ac 67.8 NA +4.5

Production Mil Bu 61.6 NA +9.8

Barley

Harvested Mil Ac 2.33 NC +17.8

Yield Bu/Ac 73.3 NA -5.3

Production Mil Bu 171 NA +11.6
USDA-NASS

7-11-19

July 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Production

Oranges Mil Tons 5.33 +1.4 +35.8

Grapefruit Thou Tons 616 +2.0 +19.1

Tangerines 

& Mandarins Thou Tons 887 -4.3 +10.3

Lemons Thou Tons 896 +5.2 +0.9
USDA-NASS

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July 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Tobacco, Flue-Cured

Harvested Thou Ac 159 NC -19.6

Yield Lbs/Ac 2,015 NA +17.7

Production Mil Lbs 320 NA -5.4
USDA-NASS

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July 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit July Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Production 

Almonds (CA) Bil Lbs 2.20 -12.0 -3.5

Apricots Thou Tons 64.5 NA +63.1
USDA-NASS

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Release Date Report Title

July 19 Cattle and Cattle on Feed

July 25 Census: Watersheds

July 31 Agricultural Prices

August 1 CAIR: Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Flour Milling, Grain Crushings

August 2 Farm Production Expenditures

August 6 Cash Rents

Land Values

August 12 Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

Upcoming Reports
USDA-NASS

7-11-19

Join @usda_nass this Thursday, July 11, at 1p.m. ET 

for another #StatChat with Lance Honig. 

We will discuss the Crop Production report and will 

be available to answer your #AgStats questions!
United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

202-720-2127

800-727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov