Te chnical Support Document (TSD) f or Emissions Inventories f

or the Maintenance Plan Update for the Fredericksburg Area 1997 8

- Hour Ozone NAAQS

Maintenance Area: NO

x Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on MOVES 2010a

Submitted by t he Commonwealth of Virginia Department of Environmental Quality

TSD Prepared June 2012 by Jessica L. Fry Office of Air Monitoring and Analysis, 3AP40 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 3

1650 Arch Street Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103

/s/

____________________________________________ Reviewed by Walter Wilkie, Associate Director Office of Air Monitoring and Analysis (3AP40)

June 15 , 2012

Dat e SignedI. Introduction

The purpose of this document is to provide a technical summary of the Office o f Air Monitoring and Analysis (OAMA) review of the emissions inventories submitted with

the Maintenance Plan Update for The City of Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania County, and Stafford County 1997 8

- Hour Ozone NAAQS Maintenance Area: N O

x Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on MOVES2010a (Fredericksburg area SIP revision) by the Commonwealth of Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (V A DEQ). This review does not determine the approvability of the Fredericksburg area SIP revision

. Virginia is updating their NO

x motor vehicle emissions budget s submitted in the 1997 8

- hour ozone NAAQS for the Fredericksburg area for 2009 and 2015 using MOVES2010 a and subsequently reviewing and updating (if needed) the NO

x emissions inventor ies for point, nonpoint, nonroad, and onroad sources. Emission inventories in this Fredericksburg area SIP revision are used to document that the SIP continues to meet applicable requirements when previous onroad mobile emissions inventories are replaced with MOVES2010a inventories. The plan should also demonstrate that growth and control strategy assumptions for point, nonpoint, and nonroad mobile sources continue to be valid and any minor updates do not change the overall conclusions of the SIP. Any

qu estions pertaining to this technical summary should be directed to Walter Wilkie, Associate Director, Office of Air Monitoring and Analysis, at 215

- 814

- 2150 or via email

at wilkie.walter@epa.gov

.

II 2009 and 20 15 Emission s Inventories

In this Fredericksburg area SIP revision , emissions inventories are used to support

th e States claim that the area is continuing to attain the 1997 8

- hour ozone standard as set

forth in the SIP when using MOVES 2010a for the onro ad mobile emissions inventory

. In order to do this, the state should review the point, nonpoint , and nonroad NO

x emission s inventories submitted with the SIP for the interim year and out year and determine if changes in growth and control strategy assumpt ions affect the conclusion that the area will remain in compliance with the 1997 8

- hour ozone standard.

In the Fredericksburg Area SIP revision VADEQ analyzed the NO

x point source

emissions estimates for 2009 and 2015 submitted with the 1997 ozone NAAQS Fredericksburg area SIP . V irginia concluded the estimates submitted for 2009 in the maintenance plan had been overestimated and due to their conservative nature the point

source emissions were not recalculated for this revision

. OAMA staff reviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable.

Virginia conducted an analysis of the NO

x emissions estimates for nonpoint sources submitted for 2009 and 2015 with the 1997 ozone NAAQS Fredericksburg SIP to determine if the nonpoint NO

x emissions inventories need to be updated for this revision

. In order to account for changes in nonpoint sector planning VADEQ compared

socioeconomic data submitted in the SIP to more recent information gathered from theGeorge Washington Region Commission’s 2035 Constrained Long

- R ange Transportation

Plan. VADEQ also compared the emissions estimates to the draft Mid

- Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA) 2007 inventory 1 which was developed using more recent methodologies for inventor y development

. VADEQ concluded the nonpoint

source emissions did not need to be re calculated for this SIP revision. OAMA staff reviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable.

The nonroad emissions inventory estimates for NO

x submitted for 2009 and 2015

in 1997 ozone NAAQS Fredericks burg area SIP were calculated using USEPA’s draft

NONROAD2004 model . For this Fredericksburg area SIP revision , VADEQ calculated nonroad emissions estimates using EPA’s NONROAD2008a model. Aircraft, locomotives, and commercial/military marine vessels wer e calculated separately. Virginia concluded that the general downward trend in NO

x emissions in this sector supports the conclusion that the area will continue to maintain compliance with the 1997

8

- hour ozone standard. OAMA staff reviewed the analysis a nd believes it is reasonable.

In th e Fredericksburg area SIP revision , VADEQ revised the 2004 and 2009

onroad NO

x emissions inventor ies and the 2015 projection inventory for the Fredericksburg area using the MOVES2010a model . Virginia used the same acti vity data submitted in the SIP where appropriate and replaced any projected inputs with actual

year

- specific data if it was available. For developing inputs to MOVES2010a for 2009 and 2015, Virginia obtained jurisdictional, road

- specific, average daily VM T and speed data for 2007 provided by Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) . The 2007

data were based on the region’s travel demand model and growth rates were applied to
estimate VMT for 2009 and 2015

. The VMT by vehicle type for each roadway typ e was developed from VDOT’s Traffic Monitoring system and adjustment factors for the month of July were provided to account for the variation in VMT that occurs during the ozone

season

. In accordance with the EPA technical guidance 2 for MOVES an average July weekday can be used to represent an ozone season weekday. Vehicle age distribution and vehicle population inputs for MOVES2010a were developed using the most current registration data provided from the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV).

VAD EQ used the same meteorology inputs that were used in the SIP. Virginia provided MOVES2010a input and output files in addition to the RunSpec files for review

. Mobile

emissions values were given in units of tons per day by jurisdiction

. OAMA staff

revie wed the files and emission results and believes them to be reasonable

.

1 EPA consulted with VADEQ and it should be noted that in Table 7 : MARAMA 2007, 2013, and 2017

Area Source NO

x Emissions Estimates provided in the TSD the first column labeled as N O

x ,tpd, should be

labeled NO

x ,tpy.

2 Using MOVES to Prepare Emission Inventories in State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity: Technical Guidance for MOVES2010, MOVES 2010a and 2010b, April 2012.