July Crop Production

Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

July 12, 2021
Data Sources

July 12, 2021

Operator Reported

Survey

Field

Survey

Objective Yield Sample Size = 1,155 June 24 - July 1

Ag Yield Sample Size = 6,107 June 29- July 7

Barley, Oats, Wheat

Florida Citrus

Utilization Florida Citrus Administrative Committee

Data Quantity of Fruit Packed or Processed
July 2021 Ag Yield Survey

Sample Sizes

July 12, 2021
United States Winter Wheat Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

July 12, 2021

25

35

45

55

65

75

10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 4/4 4/1 1 4/1 8 4/2 5 5/2 5/9 5/1 6 5/2 3 5/3 0 6/6 6/1 3 6/2 0 6/2 7 7/4

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Percent
United States Winter Wheat Progress

Percent Harvested

July 12, 2021

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

5/3 0 6/6 6/1 3 6/2 0 6/2 7 7/4 7/1 1 7/1 8 7/2 5 8/1 8/8 8/1 5 8/2 2

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
July 2021 Winter Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

July 12, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Kansas 7,300 ↑ 10.6 6,900 ↑ 10.4 55.0 ↑ 22.2 379,500 ↑ 34.9

Oklahoma 4,300 ↑ 1.2 2,700 ↑ 3.8 40.0 N C 108,000 ↑ 3.8

Washington 1,750 ↓ 2.8 1,690 ↓ 3.4 55.0 ↓ 27.6 92,950 ↓ 30.1

Texas 5,600 ↑ 14.3 2,250 ↑ 9.8 37.0 ↑ 23.3 83,250 ↑ 35.4

Colorado 2,150 ↑ 13.2 1,850 ↑ 21.7 41.0 ↑ 51.9 75,850 ↑ 84.8

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 10.5

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

33,683 25,443 53.6 1,364,205

N C N C ↑ 0.8 ↑ 4.2

↑ 5.3 ↑ 16.5

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 10.7
Winter Wheat Yield

United States

July 12, 2021 38.2

40.2 40.2

37.7

37.1

44.6

46.9

47.8

44.6

43.4

38.2

46.7

43.5

44.3

41.6 41.7

47.1

44.0

46.5 46.1

47.1 47.3

42.6 42.5

55.3

50.2

47.9

53.6

50.9

53.6

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

56.0

61.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Bushels per Acre
July 2021 Winter Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

July 12, 2021
Winter Wheat Production

United States

July 12, 2021

1.63

1.54

1.38 1.37

1.67

1.27

1.18

1.32

1.17

1.36

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Billion Bushels
21

68

94

28

69

93

18

69

93

8

50

89

14

64

92

7

64

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 June July

August June JulyAugust June JulyAugust June JulyAugust June JulyAugust June JulyAugust

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mature

July 2021 Winter Wheat Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

July 12, 2021

Percent
35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

55

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50 June July

August Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Heads per Square Foot Yield

July 2021 Winter Wheat Objective Yield

Heads per Square Foot and Yield for 10 State Region

July 12, 2021

Heads per Square Foot Bushels per Acre
July 2021 Winter Wheat Production

United States by Class

July 12, 2021

Unit

Hard Red Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 4.3

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 22.2

Soft Red Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 7.9

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 36.0

White Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 2.2

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 19.7

Production

(1,000 Units)

804,600

362,017

197,588

998

747 739

830

1,082

750

662

845

659

805

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million Bushels

Hard Red Winter Wheat Production

United States

413

568

455

359 345

293 286

240

266

362

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million Bushels

Soft Red Winter Wheat Production

United States

220 227

184 185

245

227 236 232

246

198

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million Bushels

White Winter Wheat Production

United States
2021 U.S. Winter Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

July 12, 2021

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
July 2021 Other Spring Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

July 12, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 5,950 ↑ 4.4 5,750 ↑ 2.1 28.0 ↓ 42.9 161,000 ↓ 41.6

Montana 2,600 ↓ 21.2 2,550 ↓ 22.3 25.0 ↓ 34.2 63,750 ↓ 48.9

Minnesota 1,220 ↓ 14.7 1,180 ↓ 13.2 40.0 ↓ 24.5 47,200 ↓ 34.5

Idaho 520 ↑ 2.0 495 N C 71.0 ↓ 22.0 35,145 ↓ 22.0

Washington 560 ↑ 3.7 540 ↑ 0.9 37.0 ↓ 39.3 19,980 ↓ 38.8

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

11,580 11,215 30.7 344,575

N/A

↓ 5.5 ↓ 7.0 ↓ 36.8 ↓ 41.2

N C N C N/A

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
41.8

33.7

31.8 32.2

35.1

29.9

34.9

34.1

38.4

35.2

29.1

39.5

43.2

37.1

33.2

37.1

40.5

45.2

46.1

37.7

44.9

47.1 46.7

46.2

47.3

41.0

48.3 48.3 48.6

30.7

26.0

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Other Spring Wheat Yield

United States

July 12, 2021

Bushels per Acre
July 2021 Other Spring Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

July 12, 2021
0.540 0.534

0.595 0.603

0.532

0.416

0.623

0.561

0.586

0.345

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Other Spring Wheat Production

United States

July 12, 2021

Billion Bushels
2021 U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

July 12, 2021

0.300

0.350

0.400

0.450

0.500

0.550

0.600

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
July 2021 Durum Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

July 12, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 750 ↓ 17.6 725 ↓ 19.9 22.0 ↓ 43.6 15,950 ↓ 54.8

Montana 650 ↓ 5.8 645 ↓ 5.8 22.0 ↓ 43.6 14,190 ↓ 46.9

Arizona 5 0 ↑ 13.6 4 9 ↑ 14.0 95.0 ↓ 4.0 4,655 ↑ 9.3

California 2 5 ↓ 16.7 2 0 N C 100.0 ↑ 14.9 2,000 ↑ 14.9

Idaho 5 ↓ 50.0 5 ↓ 44.4 89.0 N C 445 ↓ 44.4

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↓ 13.1

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

1,480 1,444 25.8 37,240

N C N C N/A N/A

↓ 37.7 ↓ 45.9

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↓ 12.1
39.7

33.6

35.6

30.5

32.6

27.6

37.0

27.8

30.7

30.0

29.5

33.7

38.0

37.2

29.5

34.1

31.3

44.0

41.2

36.8

38.4

43.3

40.2

44.0 44.0

26.0

39.5

45.8

41.4

25.8

23.0

28.0

33.0

38.0

43.0

48.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Durum Wheat Yield

United States

July 12, 2021

Bushels per Acre
July 2021 Durum Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

July 12, 2021
0.082

0.058 0.054

0.084

0.104

0.055

0.078

0.054

0.069

0.037

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Durum Wheat Production

United States

July 12, 2021

Billion Bushels
2021 U.S. Durum Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

July 12, 2021

0.035

0.040

0.045

0.050

0.055

0.060

0.065

0.070

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
July 2021 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

July 12, 2021

Unit Unit

Barley Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 0.7 ↓ 4.2 ↓ 27.9 ↓ 30.9

Oats Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 21.2 ↓ 28.1 ↓ 12.1 ↓ 36.8

Tobacco, Flue-Cured Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 18.5 ↑ 3.3 ↑ 22.4

Production

(1,000 Units)

114,287

41,309

290,950

2,603 2,044 55.9

Yield

(Units per Acre)

2,352 722

N/A 152

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

57.2

1,920
July 2021 Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts

Production

July 12, 2021

Unit

Almonds Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 12.5

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 10.1

Apricots Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 66.2

Production

(1,000 Units)

2,800,000

55.5

1.89

2.01

1.87 1.90

2.14

2.27 2.28

2.56

3.12

2.80

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Billion Pounds

Almond Production

United States

60.8 61.0

64.9

45.7

64.1

45.7

39.6

48.0

33.4

55.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Thousand Tons

Apricot Production

United States
July 12, 2021

July 2021 Citrus

Utilized Production

All Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 2.3

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.4

Non-Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 4.4

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 8.0

Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.9

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 18.8

Grapefruit

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 1.8

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 21.9

Lemons

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 3.4

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 15.1

Tangerines

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 4.2

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.1

1,002

4,602

2,865

1,737

446

920

Production

(1,000 Tons)

11.63

11.07

9.37 9.03 8.73

7.70

6.08

8.14 7.85

6.97

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million Tons

All Citrus Production

United States

8.98

8.27

6.77

6.35 6.09

5.09

3.88

5.43 5.25

4.60

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million Tons

All Orange Production

United States
Selected Upcoming Reports

July 12, 2021

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

Cattle

Cattle on Feed

Agricultural Prices

Farm Production Expenditures

Cotton System

Fats and Oils

Flour Milling

Grain Crushings

Cash Rents - State

Land Values

Crop Production

Cotton Ginnings

August 12

August 6

July 23

August 2

July 30
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July 12, 2021
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