Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

December 23, 2019

Executive Briefing

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview

December Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period November 30 – December 11

Sample Size 6,668

Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview

Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by class, weight group;

Sows Farrowing; Pig Crop; and Pigs per Litter

December 23, 2019
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

March 1, 2018 All Hogs 

and Pigs 72,908 -693-0.9%

-853

-1.2% 72,055

Pig Crop 32,341 -604

-1.9%

-844

-2.6% 31,497

June 1, 2018 All Hogs 

and Pigs 73,451 -635-0.9%

-1,220

-1.7% 72,231

Pig Crop 33,167 -386

-1.2%

-611

-1.8% 32,556

September 1, 2018 All Hogs 

and Pigs 75,486 -580-0.8%

-930

-1.2% 74,556

Pig Crop 34,159 -301

-0.9%

-140

-0.4% 34,019

December 1, 2018 All Hogs 

and Pigs 74,550 +1550.2%

+520

0.7% 75,070

Pig Crop 33,978 +341

1.0%

+518

+1.5% 34,496

December 23, 2019
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

March 1, 2019 All Hogs 

and Pigs 74,296 -425-0.6%

+365

+0.5% 74,661

Pig Crop 32,999 -164

-0.5%

+164

+0.5% 33,163

June 1, 2019 All Hogs 

and Pigs 75,520 +25+0.03%

+205

+0.3% 75,725

Pig Crop 34,177 +277

+0.8%

+277

+0.8% 34,454

September 1, 2019 All Hogs 

and Pigs 77,678 -115-0.1%

-115

-0.1% 75,563

December 23, 2019
U.S. Hogs and Pigs December 1

December 23, 2019

Item 2018 2019 % PY

1,000 head

All Hogs and Pigs 75,070 77,338 103

Breeding Hogs 6,326 6,461 102

Market Hogs 68,745 70,877 103

less than 50 lbs 21,858 22,128 101

50-119 lbs 19,369 19,696 102

120-179 lbs 14,323 14,976 105

180 lbs & over 13,195 14,076 107

Sows Farrowed 3,205 3,166 99

Pig Crop 34,494 35,102 102

number

Pigs per Litter 10.76 11.09 103

1,000 head

December-February Farrowings 3,099 3,129 101

Mar-May Farrowings 3,133 3,147 100
U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

2010 - 2019

77.6

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Million head

December 1 September 1

75.1

77.3

December 23, 2019
Inventory Down Up No Change

Top Five States Inv.

State Head (1,000)

Iowa 24,800

North Carolina 9,200

Minnesota 9,200

Illinois 5,350

Indiana 4,300

December 23, 2019
Trade Expectations Compared

to NASS Estimates 

Percent of Previous Year

December 23, 2019

101.1

100.4

102.9

103.0

101.6

102.9

100.4

100.9

101.8

103.1

102.1

103.0

98.5 99.5 100.5 101.5 102.5 103.5 104.5

Mar-May Farrowings

Dec-Feb Farrowings

Sep-Nov Pig Crop

Market Hogs

Breeding Hogs

All Hogs and Pigs

Min Trade Range Trade Average NASS
All Hogs and Pigs

First Estimate Versus Final Estimate

2010 - 2019

59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Million head

Lower Trade Range Trade Range ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate

December 23, 2019
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2010-2020

3.17

3.13

3.15

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Million head

Sep-Nov Estimates Dec-Feb Intentions Mar-May Intentions

December 23, 2019
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition and Utilization

December 23, 2019

Year

Sep 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Dec 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2010 5,770 849 858 5,778 50

2011 5,806 880 877 5,803 50

2012 5,788 887 918 5,819 50

2013 5,816 826 767 5,757 48

2014 5,920 802 822 5,939 50

2015 5,986 772 789 6,002 49

2016 6,016 825 919 6,110 51

2017 6,117 839 901 6,179 51

2018 6,330 859 855 6,326 51

2019 6,431 843 874 6,461 49
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2010-2019

11.11

10.76

11.09

9.50

9.80

10.10

10.40

10.70

11.00

11.30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Pigs per Litter

September - November June - August

December 23, 2019
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

December 23, 2019

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs and Corn

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Corn $/bu

Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn

December 23, 2019
Upcoming NASS Reports

December 23, 2019

Release Date Report Title

December 27 Agricultural Prices

January 2 Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Grain Crushings

January 6 Dairy Products

January 10

Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

Crop Production – Annual

Grain Stocks

Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings

January 23 Livestock Slaughter

Milk Production

January 24 Cattle on Feed

January 31

Agricultural Prices

Cattle

Sheep & Goats
December 23, 2019
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

December 23, 2019