May Crop Production

Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

May 12, 2023
Data Sources

May 12, 2023

Operator Reported

Survey

Field

Survey

Ag Yield Sample Size = 9,260 April 29 - May 9

Objective Yield Sample Size = 257 April 24 - May 1

Operator Reported

Survey

Field

Survey

1

 Valencia Oranges, Grapefruit

Utilization Florida Citrus Administrative Committee

Data Quantity of Fruit Packed or Processed

Row Count 1

Sample Size = 25,263 Rows April 26-27

Processor Survey 1

Sample Size = 5 April 27 - May 3

Winter Wheat and Hay Stocks

Florida Citrus
May 2023 Ag Yield Survey

Sample Sizes

May 12, 2023
United States Winter Wheat Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

May 12, 2023

25

35

45

55

65

75

10/23 10/30 11/6 11/13 11/20 11/27 4/2 4/9 4/1 6 4/2 3 4/3 0 5/7 5/1 4 5/2 1 5/2 8 6/4 6/1 1 6/1 8 6/2 5 7/2

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Percent
United States Winter Wheat Progress

Percent Headed

May 12, 2023

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

4/9 4/1 6 4/2 3 4/3 0 5/7 5/1 4 5/2 1 5/2 8 6/4 6/1 1 6/1 8 6/2 5

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
United States Drought Intensity for May 2, 2023

Compared with Winter Wheat Acres

May 12, 2023
May 2023 Winter Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

May 12, 2023

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Kansas 8,100 ↑ 11.0 6,600 N C 29.0 ↓ 21.6 191,400 ↓ 21.6

Washington 1,800 ↓ 2.7 1,750 ↓ 2.8 57.0 ↓ 16.2 99,750 ↓ 18.5

Montana 2,000 ↓ 2.4 1,750 ↓ 2.8 44.0 ↑ 33.3 77,000 ↑ 29.6

Illinois 880 ↑ 35.4 790 ↑ 41.1 78.0 ↓ 1.3 61,620 ↑ 39.3

Idaho 770 N C 700 ↓ 1.4 87.0 ↓ 3.3 60,900 ↓ 4.7

↓ 4.9 ↑ 2.4

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 12.7

37,505 25,286 44.7 1,130,415

N C N/A N/A N/A

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 7.8

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Production
Winter Wheat Acres

United States

May 12, 2023

42.4

39.7

36.1

32.7 32.5

31.5

30.5

33.7 33.3

37.5

32.3 32.3

30.2

25.3 24.7 24.6

23.0

25.5

23.5

25.3

20.0

24.0

28.0

32.0

36.0

40.0

44.0

48.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Planted Harvested

Million Acres
76.2

81.5 83.6

77.3 76.0 78.1 75.6 75.6

70.5

67.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Winter Wheat Harvested-to-Planted Ratio

United States

May 12, 2023

Percent
May 2023 Winter Wheat Harvested Acres

Thousand Acres and Percent Change from Previous Year

May 12, 2023
Winter Wheat Yield

United States

May 12, 2023 40.2

37.7

37.1

44.6

46.9

47.8

44.6

43.4

38.2

46.7

43.5

44.3

41.6 41.7

47.1

44.0

46.5 46.1

47.1 47.3

42.6 42.5

55.3

50.2

47.9

53.6

50.9

50.2

47.0

44.7

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

56.0

61.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Bushels per Acre
May 2023 Winter Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

May 12, 2023
Winter Wheat Production

United States

May 12, 2023

1.38 1.37

1.67

1.27

1.18

1.32

1.17

1.28

1.10 1.13

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Billion Bushels
May 2023 Winter Wheat Production

United States by Class

May 12, 2023

Unit

Hard Red Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 3.1

Soft Red Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 20.6

White Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.0

Production

(1,000 Units)

514,297

405,754

210,364

739

830

1,082

750

662

845

659

750

531 514

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million Bushels

Hard Red Winter Wheat Production

United States

455

359 345

293 286

240

266

361

337

406

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million Bushels

Soft Red Winter Wheat Production

United States

184 185

245

227 236 232

246

167

236

210

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million Bushels

White Winter Wheat Production

United States
2023 U.S. Winter Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

May 12, 2023

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
May 2023 Hay

Stocks

May 12, 2023

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Tons)

South Dakota 1,250 ↑ 14.7

Texas 1,050 ↓ 34.4

North Dakota 850 ↑ 63.5

Missouri 820 ↓ 25.5

Kansas 740 ↑ 10.4

May 1

Total

(1,000 Tons)

May 1

14,523

↓ 13.4

Top 5 States

Total

% ∆ PY

138

149

159 159 159 153

139 144 147

138

130

75.2

89.4 92.2 94.9 95.9

84.4

79.1

84.5 84.0 79.0

71.9

14.2 19.2

24.5 25.2 24.4

15.3 14.9

20.4 18.0 16.8 14.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

Million Tons

Supply Dec 1 May 1

May 2023 Hay Stocks

United States
May 2023 Hay Stocks

Thousand Tons and Percent Change from Previous Year

May 12, 2023
May 2023 Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts

Production

May 12, 2023

Unit

Almonds (Shelled Basis) Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.5

Peaches (CA Only) Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 1.1

Production

(1,000 Units)

2,500,000

480

1.87 1.90

2.14

2.27 2.28

2.56

3.12

2.93

2.57 2.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Billion Pounds

Almond Production

United States

620 608

569 553

479 498 503 507

475 480

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Thousand Tons

Peach Production

California
May 12, 2023

May 2023 Citrus

Utilized Production

All Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.8

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 25.5

Non-Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 0.1

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 14.4

Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 2.8

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 42.7

Grapefruit

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 1.5

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 8.8

Lemons

% Change from Previous Estimate NC

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 6.6

Tangerines

% Change from Previous Estimate NC

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 17.4

Production

(1,000 Tons)

864

2,554

1,787

767

341

988

9.37 9.03 8.73

7.70

6.08

8.14 7.85

6.91

5.59

4.75

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million Tons

All Citrus Production

United States

6.77

6.35

6.09

5.09

3.88

5.43 5.25

4.39

3.43

2.55

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million Tons

All Orange Production

United States
2022 All Cotton

Acreage, Yield, and Production

May 12, 2023

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

Texas 7,883 ↑ 23.8 2,029 ↓ 63.5 734.0 ↑ 10.2 3,104 ↓ 59.8

Georgia 1,290 ↑ 10.3 1,270 ↑ 9.5 1,002.0 ↑ 9.6 2,650 ↑ 19.9

Arkansas 640 ↑ 33.3 630 ↑ 32.6 1,179.0 ↓ 5.5 1,548 ↑ 25.3

Mississippi 530 ↑ 19.1 525 ↑ 22.1 1,084.0 ↑ 8.7 1,186 ↑ 32.8

North Carolina 470 ↑ 25.3 460 ↑ 26.0 1,049.0 ↑ 3.1 1,005 ↑ 30.0

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

28.9 ↑ 16.0 ↓ 17.4

↓ <0.1 ↓ 1.8 ↑ 0.3

↓

↓ 1.4

↑ 22.7

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

13,761 7,308 950 14,468

Planted Harvested Yield Production

Top 5 States - By Production
Selected Upcoming Reports

May 12, 2023

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

May 19 Cattle on Feed

May 24 Farm Labor

May 25 Floriculture

May 31 Agricultural Prices

Cotton System

Fats & Oils

Grain Crushings

June 29 Hogs and Pigs

Acreage

Grain Stocks

Rice Stocks

June 1

June 30
#StatChat

May 12, 2023
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-2127

(800) 727-9540

nass@usda.gov