12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

Small Grains Summary

Grain Stocks

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

September 28, 2018
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Field Crops Grain Stocks Oilseed Stocks

Wheat Corn Soybeans

Barley Wheat Sunflower

Oats Barley Safflower

Rye Oats Mustard Seed

Sorghum

Contents
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

September Ag Survey Off- Farm Grain Stocks Survey

Survey Type Farmer Reported Off-Farm Grain Stock Facilities

Collection 

Method

Mail, Phone, Internet, 

Personal Interview

Mail, Phone, Internet, Personal 

Interview

Crops Included Barley, Oats, Rye, Wheat 

Barley, Corn, Mustard Seed, 

Oats, Soybean, Safflower, 

Sorghum, Sunflower, Wheat

States All States Except HI, MA, NH, 

RI, and VT All States Except AK, HI, and NV

Sample Size 66,343 ~ 8,500 Facilities

Collection Period August 30 – September 15 August 30 – September 18

Survey Overview
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Wheat, Winter

Planted Mil Ac 32.5 -0.6 -0.5

Harvested Mil Ac 24.7 -0.3 -2.2

Yield Bu/Ac 47.9 NC -4.6

Production Bil Bu 1.18 -0.4 -6.7
32.5

24.7

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Million Acres Winter Wheat Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

9-28-18
47.9

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Bushels per Acre Winter Wheat Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

9-28-18
USDA-NASS

9-28-18
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Wheat, Spring

Planted Mil Ac 13.2 -<0.1 +19.8

Harvested Mil Ac 12.9 -<0.1 +27.1

Yield Bu/Ac 48.3 +1.5 +17.8

Production Mil Bu 623 +1.5 +50.0
13.2

12.9

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Million Acres

Other Spring Wheat Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

9-28-18
48.3

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Bushels per Acre

Other Spring Wheat Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

9-28-18
USDA-NASS

9-28-18
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Wheat, Durum

Planted Mil Ac 2.07 +9.4 -10.5

Harvested Mil Ac 1.97 +6.8 -6.6

Yield Bu/Ac 39.3 -1.5 +51.2

Production Mil Bu 77.3 +5.2 +41.1
2.07

1.97

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Million Acres

Durum Wheat Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

9-28-18
39.3

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Bushels per Acre

Durum Wheat Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

9-28-18
USDA-NASS

9-28-18
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Wheat, All

Planted Mil Ac 47.8 -<0.1 +3.9

Harvested Mil Ac 39.6 +0.1 +5.5

Yield Bu/Ac 47.6 +0.4 +2.8

Production Bil Bu 1.88 +0.4 +8.3
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

1.83

1.84

1.85

1.86

1.87

1.88

1.89

1.90

1.91

1.92

1.93

July August Final

Billion Bushels

2018 United States All Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

1.15

1.17

1.19

1.21

1.23

1.25

1.27

1.29

1.31

1.33

1.35

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

2018 United States Winter Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

650

660

July August Final

Million Bushels

2018 United States Other Spring Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

July August Final

Million Bushels

2018 United States Durum Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Barley

Planted Mil Ac 2.54 -0.2 +2.5

Harvested Mil Ac 1.98 -3.3 +1.2

Yield Bu/Ac 77.4 +1.4 +6.6

Production Mil Bu 153 -2.0 +7.9
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Oats

Planted Mil Ac 2.75 -4.9 +6.1

Harvested Mil Ac 0.865 -14.3 +8.0

Yield Bu/Ac 64.9 -0.3 +5.2

Production Mil Bu 56.1 -14.5 +13.6
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season 

Rye

Planted Mil Ac 2.01 +2.0 +2.5

Harvested Mil Ac 0.273 -22.7 -4.5

Yield Bu/Ac 30.9 NA -8.8

Production Mil Bu 8.43 NA -13.0
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Crop 2016 2017 2018

Percent

Other Spring Wheat 8.4 8.1 10.3

Durum Wheat 17.0 8.5 28.5

Barley 5.7 7.0 10.7

Oats 7.7 13.4 10.1

Percent of Acres Left to be Harvested

United States
2.82

2.87

3.14

2.86

2.99

2.85

2.62

2.81

3.28

2.92 2.98

2.38

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19

Billion Bushels

All Wheat Stocks

United States

Supply Sep Dec Mar Jun

USDA-NASS

9-28-18
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

2.15

2.20

2.25

2.30

2.35

2.40

2.45

September

Billion Bushels

2018 United States All Wheat Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
14.3 13.7

14.7

14.1 13.4

11.7

14.7

15.4

15.3

16.9 16.9

2.14

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18

Billion Bushels

Corn Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

9-28-18
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

2.15

September

Billion Bushels

2018 United States Corn Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
3.25 3.17

3.50 3.48 3.31

3.21

3.50

4.02

4.12

4.49

4.71

0.438

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18

Billion Bushels

Soybean Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

9-28-18
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

375

390

405

420

435

450

465

480

495

September

Million Bushels

2018 United States Soybean Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Previous

Estimates

Sept 28

Estimates Change

Million Bushels

Sept 1, 2017 Beginning Stocks 302 302 NC

2017 Production 4,392 4,411 +19

Imports *22 *22 NC

Total Supply 4,716 4,735 +19

Crushings *2,055 *2,055 NC

Exports *2,130 *2,130 NC

Seed *104 *104 NC

Measured Disappearance *4,289 *4,289 NC

Ending Stocks *395 438 +43

Residual 32 8 -24

2017 Soybean Crop

*WAOB Forecast – September WASDE Report
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

September 1, 2018 Grain Stocks

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2018 Estimate Year

Stocks

Barley Mil Bu 175 NA -2.9

Oats Mil Bu 74.9 NA +4.0

Sorghum Mil Bu 34.9 NA +4.2
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

September 1, 2018 Oilseed Stocks

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2018 Estimate Year

Stocks

All Sunflower Mil Lbs 386 NA -34.5

Safflower Mil Lbs 10.7 NA -42.6

Mustard Seed Mil Lbs 9.30 NA +31.7
USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Release Date Report Title

October 1 CAIR: Cotton, Fats & Oils, and Grain Crushings

October 11 Crop Production

Cotton Ginnings

October 19 Cattle on Feed

October 23 Cotton Ginnings

October 26 Rice Stocks

October 30 Ag Prices

Upcoming Reports
USDA-NASS

9-28-18
United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

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