BUILDINGTECHNOLOGIESPROGRAMJune13,2014ASRACPumpsWorkingGroupResultsSummary2CommercialandIndustrialPumpsBackground•Theworkinggroupvotedtodefinea‘pump’as“adevicethatmovesliquids(whichmayincludeentrainedgases,freesolids,andtotallydissolvedsolids)byphysicalormechanicalactionandincludesabarepumpand,ifincludedbythemanufacturer,themechanicalequipment,driver,andcontrols.”–Thisrulemakingonlyincludescleanwaterpumps1‐200HPlimitedtocertaindesignparameters•Equipmentclasseswithinthescopeofthisrulemakinginclude(1)endsuctionclosecoupled(ESCC)1800,(2)ESCC3600,(3)endsuctionframemounted(ESFM)1800,(4)ESFM3600,(5)In‐line(IL)1800,(6)IL3600,(7)radialsplitvertical(RS‐V)1800,(8)RS‐V3600,(9)verticalturbinesubmersible(VT‐S)1800,and(10)VT‐S3600.–AnalysiswasnotperformedforRS‐V1800,RS‐V3600,orVT‐S1800duetolimitedopportunityforenergysavings.•Approximately420,000commercialandindustrialpumpswithinthescopeofthisrulemakingwereshippedin2012.AbaselineESCC1800withashaftHPof8.0HPconsumesapproximately17,156kWh/year.AbaselineESCC3600withashaftHPof13.8HPconsumesapproximately27,096kWh/year.AbaselineESFM1800withashaftHPof60.6HPconsumesapproximately112,570kWh/year.AbaselineESFM3600withashaftHPof47.8HPconsumesapproximately93,063kWh/year.AbaselineIL1800withashaftHPof3.9HPconsumesapproximately8,110kWh/year.AbaselineIL3600withashaftHPof5.7HPconsumesapproximately12,292kWh/year.AbaselineVT‐S3600withashaftHPof14.5HPconsumesapproximately30,262kWh/year.•Thetotalinstalledbaseofcommercialandindustrialpumpswithinthescopeofthisrulemakingaccountsfor0.8quads/yearinsourceenergy,whichisapproximately2percentoftotalannualcommercialandindustrialenergyuse.3•TrialStandardLevels(TSLs)arecombinationsofefficiencylevels•Forthisanalysis,weassumedthateachTSLconsistsofanidenticalefficiencylevelforeachequipmentclass•TheworkinggroupmaywishtoselectdifferentcombinationsofefficiencylevelstoexaminetogetherTrialStandardLevels(TSLs)TSLEquipment ClassESCC1800ESCC3600ESFM1800ESFM3600IL1800IL3600VT-S36001PER 10 PER 10 PER 10 PER 10 PER 10 PER 10 PER 102PER 25 PER 25 PER 25 PER 25 PER 25 PER 25 PER 253PER 40 PER 40 PER 40 PER 40 PER 40 PER 40 PER 404PER 55 PER 55 PER 55 PER 55 PER 55 PER 55 PER 555PER 70 PER 70 PER 70 PER 70 PER 70 PER 70 PER 704Category TSL1 TSL2 TSL3 TSL4 TSL5NationalFull‐FuelCycleEnergySavings(quads,30yearsofshipments)0.09 0.35 0.64 1.02 1.46NPVofConsumerBenefits(2013$billion, 30years ofshipments)3%discountrate0.4 1.4 2.6 3.9 5.37%discountrate0.1 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9ManufacturerImpactsIndustryNPV(2013$million)(Basecase=117.6) 103.6to130.970.4to148.86.5to133.5‐103.8to126.7‐267.9to242.8%Change inIndustryNPV‐11.9%to11.3%‐40.1%to26.5%‐94.5%to13.5%‐188.2%to7.7%‐327.7%to106.4%NIAandMIAResults•Mainupdatesfrompreviousnumbers:–ChangedtomergedDOE/HIdatabasewithnewC‐values–RevisedNIAinputstoproperlyreflectthedeltasbetweenthebasecaseandstandardscase–ManufacturermarkupsinMIAupdatedtoreflectshipment‐weightingofmodels5•PotentialINPVimpactsofstandardsMIAResults6EquipmentClass TSL1 TSL2 TSL3 TSL4 TSL5ConsumerAverageLCCSavings(2013$)ESCC1800(11% oftotalshipments)$65.47 $207.86 $348.50 $517.50 $729.06ESCC3600(35% oftotalshipments)$18.59 $87.98 $144.48 $221.85 $356.57ESFM1800(10% oftotalshipments)$7.03 $197.25 $431.28 $882.46 $1,335.13ESFM3600(1% oftotalshipments)$66.46 $517.66 $901.37 $1,357.70 $2,057.46IL1800(11% oftotalshipments)$45.61 $156.96 $299.29 $465.25 $664.90IL3600(3% oftotalshipments)$379.53 $527.25 $681.88 $793.52 $1,015.61VT‐S3600(28% oftotalshipments)$2.26 $17.00 $121.61 $206.39 $273.35AllEquipmentClasses(Shipments‐WeightedAverage)*$31.50$118.43$233.06$377.77$552.79ConsumerMedianPBP(years)ESCC1800(11% oftotalshipments)2.8 2.8 0.6 0.2 0ESCC3600(35% oftotalshipments)1.5 1.1 0 0 0ESFM1800(10% oftotalshipments)1.8 1.8 0.6 0 0ESFM3600(1% oftotalshipments)0.7 0.9 0.3 0 0IL1800(11% oftotalshipments)3.7 3.4 1.5 0.6 0IL3600(3% oftotalshipments)1 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.4VT‐S3600(28% oftotalshipments)5.4 4.6 0.6 0.3 0.3AllEquipmentClasses(Shipments‐WeightedAverage)*3.02.60.5 0.20.1*Weightedbysharesofeachproductclassintotalprojectedshipmentsin2019.LCC&PBPResults:NoCostRecovery7EquipmentClass TSL1 TSL2 TSL3 TSL4 TSL5ConsumerAverageLCCSavings(2013$)ESCC1800(11% oftotalshipments)$44.06 $184.24 $261.87 $338.85 $389.77ESCC3600(35% oftotalshipments)$15.49 $81.14 $107.30 $158.06 $246.97ESFM1800(10% oftotalshipments)$4.07 $159.17 $338.03 $629.65 $911.75ESFM3600(1% oftotalshipments)$61.81 $499.40 $846.39 $1,220.72 $1,817.02IL1800(11% oftotalshipments)$47.88 $142.97 $195.72 $203.47 $213.29IL3600(3% oftotalshipments)$388.82 $521.63 $620.51 $653.35 $735.18VT‐S3600(28% oftotalshipments)($2.39) $8.45 $91.21 $133.94 $149.14AllEquipmentClasses(Shipments‐WeightedAverage)*$26.86$105.08$178.32$254.40$337.11ConsumerMedianPBP(years)ESCC1800(11% oftotalshipments)15.9 5.3 7.5 8.3 10.4ESCC3600(35% oftotalshipments)3.8 1.8 11.2 6.1 4.9ESFM1800(10% oftotalshipments)11.3 7.1 9 9.4 8.9ESFM3600(1% oftotalshipments)2.2 1.6 2.1 2.8 2.6IL1800(11% oftotalshipments)2.9 4.5 6.7 10.2 13.1IL3600(3% oftotalshipments)0.6 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.3VT‐S3600(28% oftotalshipments)37.7 8.8 3 3.6 4.4AllEquipmentClasses(Shipments‐WeightedAverage)*15.25.07.46.36.6*Weightedbysharesofeachproductclassintotalprojectedshipmentsin2019.LCC&PBPResults:FullCostRecovery8DistributionofConsumerLCCImpactsEquipmentClass TSL1 TSL2 TSL3 TSL4 TSL5ESCC1800*NetCost(%)13111NoImpact(%)82 69 51 42 29NetBenefit(%)16 29 47 57 70ESCC3600*NetCost(%)00000NoImpact(%)96 88 74 72 68NetBenefit(%)3 11 26 28 32ESFM1800*NetCost(%)01000NoImpact(%)99 78 62 38 27NetBenefit(%)1 21 38 62 73ESFM3600*NetCost(%)00000NoImpact(%)96 76 62 49 40NetBenefit(%)4 24 38 51 60IL1800*NetCost(%)24221NoImpact(%)85 69 59 47 36NetBenefit(%)13 27 39 51 62IL3600*NetCost(%)12100NoImpact(%)74 57 49 45 35NetBenefit(%)25 42 51 54 65VT‐S3600*NetCost(%)1 11 0 0 0NoImpact(%)98 61 52 47 44NetBenefit(%)1 28 48 53 56AllEquipmentClasses(Shipments WeightedAverage)*NetCost(%)14000NoImpact(%)94 74 62 54 48NetBenefit(%)5 22 38 45 52ConsumerImpacts:NoCostRecovery*Maynotaddto100%duetorounding.9ConsumerImpacts:FullCostRecoveryDistributionofConsumerLCCImpactsEquipmentClass TSL1 TSL2 TSL3 TSL4 TSL5ESCC1800*NetCost(%)12 9 21 26 38NoImpact(%)82 69 51 42 29NetBenefit(%)6 22 28 32 33ESCC3600*NetCost(%)1 2 14 14 13NoImpact(%)96 88 74 72 68NetBenefit(%)3 10 12 14 19ESFM1800*NetCost(%)1 7 17 27 30NoImpact(%)99 78 62 38 27NetBenefit(%)1 15 21 36 43ESFM3600*NetCost(%)03588NoImpact(%)96 76 62 49 40NetBenefit(%)4 22 33 44 53IL1800*NetCost(%)2 7 15 26 37NoImpact(%)85 69 59 47 36NetBenefit(%)13 24 26 27 27IL3600*NetCost(%)0 11 10 14 19NoImpact(%)74 57 49 45 35NetBenefit(%)26 33 41 41 46VT‐S3600*NetCost(%)2 22 7 11 14NoImpact(%)98 61 52 47 44NetBenefit(%)0 17 41 43 42AllEquipmentClasses(Shipments WeightedAverage)*NetCost(%)3 10 13 17 21NoImpact(%)94 74 62 54 48NetBenefit(%)4 16 25 29 32*Maynotaddto100%duetorounding.10UpdatedPERC‐ValuesfromMergedDOE/HIDatabaseDOE/HIMERGEDDatabase PERC‐ValuesEquipmentClassEL1 EL2 EL3 EL4 EL 5PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC 1800 131.65 128.23 126.49 125.00 123.57ESCC 3600 134.58 130.35 128.78 127.28 125.13ESFM 1800 132.84 128.76 126.95 125.06 123.61ESFM 3600 134.91 130.86 129.18 127.73 125.98IL 1800 133.91 129.31 127.25 125.84 124.39IL 3600 138.85 133.72 130.90 129.30 127.17RSV 1800 133.70 131.94 129.63 127.88 124.73RSV 3600 137.44 134.40 133.20 131.90 128.97VTS 1800 135.78 133.90 130.80 128.67 127.21VTS 3600 135.78 133.90 130.80 128.67 127.2111ActualPercentageofMergedDatabaseModelsFailingatEachEfficiencyLevelActual% ofModelsFailingatEachELEquipmentClassEL1 EL2 EL3 EL4 EL 5PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC 180010.4% 27.4% 43.0% 59.0% 72.6%ESCC 360010.4% 27.3% 43.0% 58.6% 73.1%ESFM 180010.8% 25.9% 41.6% 57.8% 72.1%ESFM 360010.1% 26.7% 40.1% 58.5% 71.4%IL 180011.2% 25.1% 44.2% 57.2% 71.6%IL 360010.4% 26.4% 40.6% 56.6% 71.7%RSV 1800SettoharmonizewithEULot11MEI40RSV 3600VTS 1800 NodataavailableVTS 360010.3% 25.9% 43.1% 56.9% 70.7%TotalIndustry10.6% 26.5% 42.2% 58.1% 72.1%•InordertodetermineC‐valuesthatcutoffacertainpercentageofpumps,wehadtodeterminetheC‐valueatwhicheachpumpwouldfail.Wedidthisbyignoringmotorlossesforthreereasons:–Thisisatime‐consumingmathematicalproblemtosolveifincludingmotorlosses–ThemotorlossestobeusedintheTPhavenotyetbeenfinalized–Ourdatalikelydonotexactlyrepresentthepopulation;thereforetheerrorfromignoringmotorlossesislikelytobewithinthenoise•Asaresult,theefficiencylevelseachwouldcutoffslightlymorepumpsthanwasthedesignintent:12UStoEUCrosswalkEL1 EL2 EL3 EL4 EL5EquipmentClass PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70ESCC 1800 11% 35% 51% 69% >70%ESCC 3600 14% 39% 53% 67% >70%ESFM 1800 10% 28% 44% 62% >70%ESFM 3600 11% 31% 44% 57% >70%IL 1800 21% 64% >70% >70% >70%IL 3600 11% 34% 56% >70% >70%RSV 1800 10% 25% 40% 55% 70%RSV 3600 10% 25% 40% 55% 70%VTS 1800VTS 3600 10% 12% 49% 65% >70%TheC‐Valuesthatcause~10%ofUSmodelstofailCauses~14%oftheESCC 3600pumpsintheEUtofail(MEI14)