12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

September 11, 2014
USDA-NASS

9-11-14

Field Crops Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops

Corn Navel Oranges (CA) Tobacco

Soybeans Hazelnuts Sugarbeets

Cotton Walnuts Sugarcane

Rice

Peanuts

Sorghum

Contents
USDA-NASS

9-11-14

Ag Yield Objective Yield

Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement

Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Sample Size 11,984 4,972

Collection Period Aug 27 – Sep 5 Aug 24 – Sept 2

Survey Overview
20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Percent

U.S. Corn Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 USDA-NASS

9-11-14
USDA-NASS

9-11-14

Crop Unit

September

2014

% Change

From

Previous

Forecast

% Change

From

Previous

Season

Corn

Harvested Mil Ac 83.8 NC -4.4

Yield Bu/Ac 171.7 +2.6 +8.1

Production Bil Bu 14.4 +2.6 +3.4

September 2014 Crop Production
10.1

7.4

9.2 9.2

9.8

9.4

9.9

9.5

9.0

10.1

11.8

11.1

10.5

13.0

12.1

13.1

12.4 12.4

10.8

13.9

14.4

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Billion Bushels

Corn for Grain Production

United States

USDA-NASS

9-11-14
USDA-NASS

9-11-14

S e p te m b e r 1 , 2 0 1 4 C o r n Y ie ld

B u s h e ls a n d C h a n g e F r o m P r e v io u s M o n t h

149# N C

184

4

175

5

144 N C

170#

1 0

167

5

194#

6

184#

5

185# N C

154

9 148

1 0

180# N C

166#

8

162#

1

170

2

180#

2

169#

9

179#

6

146#

1 0

150# N C

138

6

132#

5

179#

2

150#

5

148#

- 1

117 N C

U .S .1 7 1 .7 #

4 .3

# R e c o r d H ig h N C = N o C h a n g e

148

9

152

2

147

3

143

3

210 N C

162#

6
2004

2005

2006 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Aug 14

Sep 14

0.260

0.270

0.280

0.290

0.300

0.310

0.320

0.330

0.340

0.350

0.360

25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500

Lbs/Ear

Ears Per Acre

Corn Objective Yield Region

Ears Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight

USDA-NASS

9-11-14

Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears
14.4

14.0

14.3

14.5

13.7

13.8

13.9

14

14.1

14.2

14.3

14.4

14.5

14.6

Billion Bushels

NASS Estimate vs. Expectations

Corn Grain Production

USDA-NASS

9-11-14

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations
20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Percent

U.S. Soybean Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 USDA-NASS

9-11-14
USDA-NASS

9-11-14

Crop Unit

September

2014

% Change

From

Previous

Forecast

% Change

From

Previous

Season

Soybeans

Harvested Mil Ac 84.1 NC +10.8

Yield Bu/Ac 46.6 +2.6 +7.6

Production Bil Bu 3.91 +2.6 +19.0

September 2014 Crop Production
2.51

2.17

2.38

2.69 2.74

2.65

2.76

2.89

2.76

2.45

3.12 3.07

3.20

2.68

2.97

3.36 3.33

3.09 3.03

3.29

3.91

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Billion Bushels

Soybean Production

United States

USDA-NASS

9-11-14
USDA-NASS

9-11-14

S e p te m b e r 1 , 2 0 1 4 S o y b e a n Y ie ld

B u s h e ls a n d C h a n g e F r o m P r e v io u s M o n t h

4 1 N C

46# N C

44#

2

3 9

2

56#

2

52#

1

5 1

1

3 5

- 1 4 6

6

51#

1

4 4 N C

4 5

1

4 2 N C

49#

1

46#

2

5 3

1

42#

2

49# N C

3 7 N C

3 3

1

50#

1

3 1 N C

50#

1

2 8

- 1 U .S .4 6 .6 #

1 .2

# R e c o r d H ig h N C = N o C h a n g e

42#

2

47#

3

3 2

5

4 1

1

4 6

3
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Sep 14

0.260

0.265

0.270

0.275

0.280

0.285

0.290

0.295

0.300

0.305

0.310

0.315

0.320

0.325

1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900

Grams/Pod

Pods Per 18 Square Feet

Soybean Objective Yield Region

Pods Per 18 Square Feet vs. Implied Pod Weight

USDA-NASS

9-11-14

Implied Pod Weight = (Published Yield /Pods) / 0.0889
3.91

3.83

3.88

4.04

3.7

3.75

3.8

3.85

3.9

3.95

4

4.05

4.1

Billion Bushels

NASS Estimate vs. Expectations

Soybean Production

USDA-NASS

9-11-14

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations
20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Percent

U.S. Cotton Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 USDA-NASS

9-11-14
USDA-NASS

9-11-14

Crop Unit

September

2014

% Change

From

Previous

Forecast

% Change

From

Previous

Season

Cotton

Planted Mil Ac 11.0 -3.2 +5.8

Harvested Mil Ac 9.88 -3.5 +31.0

Yield Lbs/Ac 803 -2.1 -2.2

Production Mil Bales 16.5 -5.5 +28.1

September 2014 Crop Production
11.0

9.88

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Million Acres

All Cotton Acres

United States

Planted Harvested USDA-NASS

9-11-14
19.7

17.9

18.9 18.8

13.9

17.0 17.2

20.3

17.2

18.3

23.3

23.9

21.6

19.2

12.8

12.2

18.1

15.6

17.3

12.9

16.5

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Million Bales

All Cotton Production

United States

USDA-NASS

9-11-14
USDA-NASS

9-11-14

S e p te m b e r 1 , 2 0 1 4 A ll C o tto n Y ie ld

P o u n d s a n d C h a n g e F r o m P r e v io u s M o n t h

850

-4 4

1548#

-3 1 1108

-8 5

1634

1 1

839

-8 7

911

-5 6

794#

108

1164

7

1120

-1 0

1087 N C

1143

151

950

1 1

731

-8 7 906

3 0 U .S . 8 0 3

-1 7

# R e c o r d H ig h N C = N o C h a n g e

933

7 1

616

-1 6

1060

-1 6
16.5

17.1

17.3

17.4

16

16.2

16.4

16.6

16.8

17

17.2

17.4

17.6

Million Bales

NASS Estimate vs. Expectations

Cotton Production

USDA-NASS

9-11-14

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations
USDA-NASS

9-11-14

Crop Unit

September

2014

% Change

From

Previous

Forecast

% Change

From

Previous

Season

Rice

Planted Mil Ac 2.93 -3.8 +17.8

Harvested Mil Ac 2.91 -3.8 +17.9

Yield Lbs/Ac 7,501 -0.8 -2.5

Production Mil Cwt 218 -4.6 +14.9

September 2014 Crop Production
USDA-NASS

9-11-14

Crop Unit

September

2014

% Change

From

Previous

Forecast

% Change

From

Previous

Season

Peanuts

Planted Mil Ac 1.34 +2.1 +25.8

Harvested Mil Ac 1.31 +2.1 +25.4

Yield Lbs/Ac 3,800 -4.1 -5.1

Production Bil Lbs 4.97 -2.1 +19.0

September 2014 Crop Production
USDA-NASS

9-11-14

Crop Unit

September

2014

% Change

From

Previous

Forecast

% Change

From

Previous

Season

Sorghum Mil Bu 430 +0.2 +10.6

All Tobacco Mil Lbs 829 +2.5 +14.6

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 31.5 +4.6 -3.9

Sugarcane Mil Tons 29.4 -0.1 -4.5

September 2014 Crop Production
USDA-NASS

9-11-14

Crop Unit

September

2014

% Change

From

Previous

Forecast

% Change

From

Previous

Season

Navel Oranges (CA) Mil Tons 1.62 --- -3.6

Hazelnuts (OR) Thou Tons 36.0 --- -20.0

Walnuts (CA) Thou Tons 545 --- +10.8

September 2014 Crop Production
USDA-NASS

9-11-14

Release Date Report Title

September 18 Citrus Fruits

Potatoes

September 19 Cattle on Feed

September 26 Hogs & Pigs

September 29 Ag Prices

September 30 Grain Stocks

Small Grain Summary

October 10 Crop Production

Upcoming Reports
United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

202-720-2127

800-727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov