HOGS & PIGS INVENTORY

Executive Briefing

June 1, 2014

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

June 27, 2014
June Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period: 

 May 31 - June 17

Sample Size: 

 7,807

Collection Methods:

Phone, mail, internet, personal interview

Quarterly Data Items:

• Total Inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter

• Sows farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

June 27, 2014
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Revisions

June 27, 2014

Initial

Estimate

Previous 

Revision

Current

Revision

Net 

Revision

Current 

Estimate

Jun

2013

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

66.6 million -1,559,000

-2.3%

+100,000

+0.2%

-1,459,000

-2.2% 65.2 million

Pig 

Crop 30.1 million -1,085,000-3.6%

-105,000

-0.3%

-1,190,000

-4.0% 28.9 million

Sep

2013

Pig

Crop 30.2 million -223,000-0.7%

-125,000

-0.4%

-348,000

-1.2% 29.9 million
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Revisions

June 27, 2014

Initial

Estimate

Previous 

Revision

Current

Revision

Net 

Revision

Current 

Estimate

Dec

2013

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

65.9 million +85,000

+0.1%

-1,250,000

-1.9%

-1,165,000

-1.8% 64.8 million

Pig 

Crop 29.3 million -1,045,000-3.6% 28.3 million

Mar

2014

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

62.9 million -410,000

-0.7% 62.5 million
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Inventory

June 1, 2014

Inventory Items (000) Hd % PY

All Hogs & Pigs 62,128 95%

Breeding Hogs 5,855 100%

Market Hogs 56,273 95%

Mar – May Pig Crop 27,361 95%

Sows Farrowing 2,797 100%

Litter Rate Number % PY

Mar – May 2014 9.78 95%

Farrowing Intentions (000) Hd % PY

Jun – Aug 2014 2,893 100%

Sep – Nov 2014 2,880 104%

June 27, 2014
5 6

5 8

6 0

6 2

6 4

6 6

6 8

7 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory

June 1, 2014

62.1 

June 27, 2014
 NASS Estimates Compared to Trade Expectations

 Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 95.3% 97.0% 96.0% – 98.9%

Breeding Hogs 99.5% 101.6% 100.7% – 102.5%

Market Hogs 94.9% 96.6% 95.5% – 98.6%

Mar – May Pig Crop 94.6% 97.7% 95.7% – 99.9%

Farrowing Intentions

Jun – Aug 2014 100.1% 102.1% 102.0% – 102.7%

Sep – Nov 2014 103.6% 102.6% 101.5% – 103.4%

June 27, 2014
June 27, 2014 5 9

6 0

6 1

6 2

6 3

6 4

6 5

6 6

6 7

6 8

6 9

7 0

7 1

Dec 

0 7

Jun 

0 8

Dec 

0 8

Jun 

0 9

Dec 

0 9

Jun 

1 0

Dec 

1 0

Jun 

11

Dec 

11

Jun 

1 2

Dec 

1 2

Jun 

1 3

Dec 

1 3

Jun 

1 4 Million Head

All Hogs and Pigs

Board vs Trade Expectations

ASB Final Est Trade ASB First Est
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

D-F 

1 0

M-M 

1 0

J-A 

1 0

S-N 

1 0

D-F 

11

M-M 

11

J-A 

11

S-N 

11

D-F 

1 2

M-M 

1 2

J-A 

1 2

S-N 

1 2

D-F 

1 3

M-M 

1 3

J-A 

1 3

S-N 

1 3

D-F 

1 4

M-M 

1 4

Feeder Pigs Slaughter

Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

June 27, 2014
2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed 

March - May

ASB Estimate Jun-Aug Intentions Sep-Nov Intentions Million Head

June 27, 2014
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Mar. 1

Estimate Slaughter Additions Jun. 1Estimate

Sow

Utilization

(000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd Percent

2005 5,952 854 890 5,988 48%

2006 6,045 889 924 6,080 48%

2007 6,149 955 975 6,169 49%

2008 6,200 1,023 954 6,131 49%

2009 5,992 876 852 5,968 50%

2010 5,760 847 875 5,788 51%

2011 5,788 826 841 5,803 50%

2012 5,820 813 855 5,862 51%

2013 5,836 848 896 5,884 48%

2014 5,851 776 780 5,855 48%

June 27, 2014
8.80

9.00

9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

10.20

10.40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter 

March - May

9.78

June 27, 2014
9.78

7.80

8.50

8.80

9.20

9.70 9.80

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1000-1999 2000-4999 5000+

Size of Operation

U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

March-May 2014

Pigs Per Litter

June 27, 2014
$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4

Year

U.S. Prices Received by Farmers 

for Hogs & Corn 

Hogs Corn Hogs $/cwt

Corn $/bu

June 27, 2014
Upcoming Reports

July 11 Crop Production

July 18 Milk Production

July 25 Cattle on Feed

July 31 Agricultural Prices

Sept 4 2008-2012 Livestock

Final Estimates

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

June 27, 2014
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions Call or Email

202-720-3570

800-727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

June 27, 2014