Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

March 29, 2018

Executive Briefing

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview

March Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period February 28 – March 17

Sample Size 6,502

Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview

Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by class and weight group;

Sows Farrowing; Pig Crop; and Pigs per Litter

March 29, 2018
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Previous 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

September 1, 2017 All Hogs 

and Pigs 73,549 -250-0.3%

+260

+0.3%

+10

+0.01% 73,559

December 1, 2017 All Hogs 

and Pigs 73,230 No revision +185+0.3%

+185

+0.3% 73,415

March 29, 2018
U.S. Hogs and Pigs March 1

Item 2017 2018 % PY

1,000 head

All Hogs and Pigs 70,701 72,908 103

Breeding Hogs 6,098 6,200 102

Market Hogs 64,603 66,708 103

less than 50 lbs 20,407 21,047 103

50-119 lbs 17,862 18,422 103

120-179 lbs 14,435 14,874 103

180 lbs & over 11,899 12,364 104

Sows Farrowed 2,986 3,057 102

Pig Crop 31,146 32,341 104

number

Pigs per Litter 10.43 10.58 101

1,000 head

Dec-Feb Farrowings 2,986 3,057 102

Mar-May Farrowings 3,014 3,078 102

March 29, 2018
U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

2009 - 2018

March 29, 2018

72.9

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million head

March 1 December 1

70.7

73.4
March 1, 2018 

Hogs and Pigs Inventory

Head (1,000) and Percent of Previous Year

March 29, 2018

Inventory Down Up No Change Non-published

Non-published States

3,133

102
Trade Expectations Compared

to NASS Estimates 

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items

NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs and Pigs 103.1% 103.1% 102.3% – 104.1%

Breeding Hogs 101.7% 101.5% 100.6% – 101.9%

Market Hogs 103.3% 103.3% 102.4% – 104.3%

Dec – Feb Pig Crop 103.8% 103.7% 102.2% – 104.4%

Farrowing Intentions

Mar – May 102.1% 102.1% 101.4% – 102.4%

Jun – Aug 101.4% 101.7% 100.7% – 102.2%

March 29, 2018
59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million head

ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range

All Hogs and Pigs

First Estimate Versus Final Estimate

2009 - 2018

March 29, 2018
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2009-2018

March 29, 2018

3.06

3.08

3.16

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million head

Dec-Feb Estimate Mar-May Intentions Jun-Aug Intentions
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition and Utilization

Year

Dec 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Mar 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2009 6,062 877 807 5,992 49

2010 5,850 846 756 5,760 49

2011 5,778 792 802 5,788 49

2012 5,803 823 840 5,820 48

2013 5,819 805 819 5,834 48

2014 5,757 779 873 5,851 48

2015 5,939 792 835 5,982 49

2016 6,002 782 760 5,980 49

2017 6,110 802 790 6,098 49

2018 6,179 834 855 6,200 49

March 29, 2018
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2009-2018

March 29, 2018

10.74

10.43

10.58

9.30

9.60

9.90

10.20

10.50

10.80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Pigs per Litter

Dec-Feb Sep-Nov
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter

March 29, 2018
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs and Corn

March 29, 2018

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Corn $/bu

Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn
Upcoming NASS Reports

Release Date Report Title

April 10, 2018 Crop Production

April 18, 2018 Livestock Slaughter Annual

April 19, 2018 Livestock Slaughter

April 20, 2018 Milk Production

Cattle on Feed

April 26, 2018 Meat Animal PDI

Milk PDI

Dairy Products Annual

April 27, 2018 Agricultural Prices

March 29, 2018
March 29, 2018

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

March 29, 2018