Small Grains Summary

Grain Stocks

Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

September 30, 2022
Special Note

September 30, 2022

The marketing year for corn and soybeans is finished and a thorough review of the 

balance sheet was completed. This process, which is normal for this time of the 

year, led to revisions in acreage, yield, and production for the 2021 crop.

U.S. corn production for 2021 is revised down 41.4 million bushels and U.S. soybean 

production is revised up 30.2 million bushels from the previous estimate.
Data Sources

September 30, 2022

Operator Reported September Ag Survey Sample Size = 56,002 August 30 - September 17

Surveys Off-Farm Grain Stocks ~8,200 Facilities August 30 - September 19

Field Objective Yield

Survey Winter Wheat

FSA

Certified Acres

FSA and RMA

Failed Acres

Acres reported as "failed" to either the Farm Service Agency (FSA) or the Risk 

Management Agency (RMA) are considered minimum levels of abandonment.

Sample Size = 1,155 Prior to Harvest

Farm Service Agency policy requires that producers participating in several programs 

submit an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms.
September 2022 Ag Survey

Sample Sizes

September 30, 2022
2022 Winter Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 30, 2022

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Kansas 7,300 N C 6,600 ↓ 5.7 37.0 ↓ 28.8 244,200 ↓ 32.9

Washington 1,850 ↑ 5.7 1,800 ↑ 6.5 68.0 ↑ 61.9 122,400 ↑ 72.4

Oklahoma 4,300 ↓ 2.3 2,450 ↓ 16.9 28.0 ↓ 28.2 68,600 ↓ 40.4

Idaho 770 ↑ 8.5 710 ↑ 10.9 90.0 ↑ 26.8 63,900 ↑ 40.6

Montana 2,050 ↑ 5.1 1,800 ↑ 4.0 33.0 ↑ 6.5 59,400 ↑ 10.8

↓ 6.4 ↓ 13.6

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↓ 1.2

33,271 23,459 47.0 1,103,707

↓ 2.2 ↓ 6.2 ↓ 1.9 ↓ 7.8

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↓ 7.9

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Production
Winter Wheat Acres

United States

September 30, 2022

Million Acres

43.2 42.4

39.7

36.1

32.7 32.5

31.5

30.5

33.7 33.3

32.7 32.3 32.3

30.2

25.3 24.7 24.6

23.0

25.5

23.5

20.0

24.0

28.0

32.0

36.0

40.0

44.0

48.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Planted Harvested
40.2 40.2

37.7

37.1

44.6

46.9

47.8

44.6

43.4

38.2

46.7

43.5

44.3

41.6 41.7

47.1

44.0

46.5 46.1

47.1 47.3

42.6 42.5

55.3

50.2

47.9

53.6

50.9

50.2

47.0

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

56.0

61.0

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Winter Wheat Yield

United States

September 30, 2022

Bushels per Acre
2022 Winter Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

September 30, 2022
35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46 June July

August Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Heads per Square Foot Yield

2022 Winter Wheat Objective Yield

Heads per Square Foot and Yield for 10 State Region

September 30, 2022

Heads per Square Foot Bushels per Acre
1.54

1.38 1.37

1.67

1.27

1.18

1.32

1.17

1.28

1.10

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Winter Wheat Production

United States

September 30, 2022

Billion Bushels
2022 U.S. Winter Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2022

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 5,300 ↓ 3.6 5,260 ↑ 1.0 50.0 ↑ 49.3 263,000 ↑ 50.7

Minnesota 1,250 ↑ 3.3 1,210 ↑ 4.3 61.0 ↑ 27.1 73,810 ↑ 32.6

Montana 2,700 ↓ 6.9 2,440 ↑ 11.9 25.0 ↑ 47.1 61,000 ↑ 64.6

South Dakota 730 ↑ 1.4 700 ↑ 20.7 48.0 ↑ 65.5 33,600 ↑ 99.8

Idaho 380 ↓ 25.5 360 ↓ 25.8 81.0 ↑ 28.6 29,160 ↓ 4.6

2.5 ↓ 3.3

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

↓ 2.5

2.8 ↑ 41.7 ↑ 45.7

↓

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↓ 5.1 ↑

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

10,835 10,440 46.2 482,190

↓ 5.8

Top 5 States - By Production

2022 Other Spring Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 30, 2022
11.6

13.0

13.4

11.6

11.0

13.2

12.7

12.3

11.4

10.8 11.3

12.7

13.1

11.3

10.1

12.9

11.6

12.1

10.2

10.4

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Planted Harvested

Other Spring Wheat Acres

United States

September 30, 2022

Million Acres
33.7

31.8 32.2

35.1

29.9

34.9

34.1

38.4

35.2

29.1

39.5

43.2

37.1

33.2

37.1

40.5

45.2

46.1

37.7

44.9

47.1 46.7

46.2

47.3

41.0

48.3 48.3 48.6

32.6

46.2

26.0

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Other Spring Wheat Yield

United States

September 30, 2022

Bushels per Acre
2022 Other Spring Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

September 30, 2022
0.534

0.595 0.603

0.532

0.416

0.623

0.561

0.588

0.331

0.482

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Other Spring Wheat Production

United States

September 30, 2022

Billion Bushels
0.300

0.350

0.400

0.450

0.500

0.550

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate

2022 U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2022
2022 Durum Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 30, 2022

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 790 ↓ 10.2 780 ↓ 4.9 40.0 ↑ 66.7 31,200 ↑ 58.5

Montana 710 ↑ 6.0 675 ↑ 8.9 28.0 ↑ 75.0 18,900 ↑ 90.5

Arizona 8 5 ↑ 41.7 8 4 ↑ 42.4 114.0 ↑ 26.7 9,576 ↑ 80.3

California 4 0 ↑ 60.0 3 5 ↑ 75.0 110.0 N C 3,850 ↑ 75.0

Idaho 7 N C 7 N C 65.0 ↓ 15.6 455 ↓ 15.6

↑ 64.0 ↑ 69.9

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↓ 0.6

1,632 1,581 40.5 63,981

↓ 13.0 ↓ 13.1 ↑ 0.2 ↓ 13.0

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 3.6

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Production
Durum Wheat Acres

United States

September 30, 2022

Million Acres

1.40 1.41

1.95

2.41

2.31

2.07

1.34

1.69 1.64 1.63

1.34 1.35

1.91

2.36

2.11

1.97

1.18

1.67

1.53 1.58

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Planted Harvested
33.6

35.6

30.5

32.6

27.6

37.0

27.8

30.7

30.0

29.5

33.7

38.0

37.2

29.5

34.1

31.3

44.0

41.2

36.8

38.4

43.3

40.2

44.0 44.0

26.0

39.5

45.8

41.5

24.7

40.5

23.0

28.0

33.0

38.0

43.0

48.0

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Durum Wheat Yield

United States

September 30, 2022

Bushels per Acre
2022 Durum Wheat Yield

Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Year

September 30, 2022
Durum Wheat Production

United States

September 30, 2022

Billion Bushels

0.058 0.054

0.084

0.104

0.055

0.078

0.054

0.069

0.038

0.064

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0.030

0.040

0.050

0.060

0.070

0.080

0.090

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate

2022 U.S. Durum Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2022
2022 Small Grains

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 30, 2022

Unit Unit

Barley Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 2.7 ↑ 2.2 ↑ 8.1 ↑ 10.4

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 8.8 ↑ 22.3 ↑ 18.9 ↑ 45.2

Oats Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 7.9 ↑ 11.8 ↓ 2.0 ↑ 9.7

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 1.2 ↑ 36.9 ↑ 5.7 ↑ 44.7

Rye Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 0.2 ↓ 1.2 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.0 ↑ 16.0 ↑ 8.1 ↑ 25.4

2,945

Yield

(Units per Acre)

2,581 890

2,175 341

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

64.8

36.1

Production

(1,000 Units)

174,333

57,655

12,301

2,433 71.7
17.7

56.7

16.2

35.2

7.2

28.4

10.2

14.6

5.1

11.1

7.0

3.7

11.7

25.1

19.0

22.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Barley Durum Wheat Oats Other Spring Wheat

2019 2020 2021 2022

Small Grains

U.S. Percent of Acres Remaining to be Harvested

September 30, 2022

Percent
September 30, 2022

September 2022 All Wheat

Stocks

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Kansas 305,810 ↓ 24.6 30,500 ↑ 15.1 275,310 ↓ 27.4

North Dakota 276,387 ↑ 39.6 210,000 ↑ 112.1 66,387 ↓ 32.9

Washington 156,408 ↑ 37.5 20,500 ↑ 86.4 135,908 ↑ 32.3

Oklahoma 135,766 ↑ 6.9 7,000 ↓ 41.7 128,766 ↑ 11.9

Montana 127,346 ↑ 20.7 94,000 ↑ 32.4 33,346 ↓ 3.5

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

1,776,080 591,130 1,184,950

↑ 0.1 ↑ 41.0 ↓ 12.5

Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

17%

15%

9%

7% 8%

44%

September 1, 2022 All Wheat

Total Stocks By State

Kansas North Dakota Washington

Oklahoma Montana Other

33%

67%

September 1, 2022 All Wheat

Stocks By Position

On-Farm Off-Farm
September 30, 2022

September 2022 All Wheat Stocks

United States

2.99

2.85

2.62

2.81

3.28

2.92 2.98 3.01

2.86

2.49

2.32

2.12

1.87 1.91

2.10

2.55

2.27

2.39 2.35

2.16

1.77 1.78

1.67

1.47 1.53

1.75

2.08

1.87

2.01

1.84

1.70

1.38

1.23

1.06 1.14

1.37

1.66

1.50 1.59

1.42

1.31

1.02

0.718

0.590

0.752

0.976

1.18 1.10 1.08 1.03

0.845

0.669

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

Billion Bushels

Supply Sep 1 Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1
2021 U.S. All Wheat Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2022

1.70

1.72

1.74

1.76

1.78

1.80

1.82

1.84

1.86

September

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
September 30, 2022

September 2022 Corn

Stocks

19%

11%

11%

7% 10%

42%

September 1, 2022 Corn

Total Stocks By State

Iowa Nebraska Illinois Minnesota Indiana Other

37%

63%

September 1, 2022 Corn

Stocks By Position

On-Farm Off-Farm

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Iowa 255,256 ↑ 1.3 95,000 ↑ 72.7 160,256 ↓ 18.6

Nebraska 151,530 ↓ 7.1 51,000 ↑ 7.4 100,530 ↓ 13.0

Illinois 145,403 ↑ 13.8 48,000 ↑ 9.1 97,403 ↑ 16.2

Minnesota 142,337 ↑ 31.7 70,000 ↑ 66.7 72,337 ↑ 9.4

Indiana 99,530 ↑ 36.5 41,000 ↑ 64.0 58,530 ↑ 22.1

1,376,921

↑

509,500 867,421

↑ 29.0 ↑

September 1 September 1 September 1

3.3

Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

September 1 September 1 September 1

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

11.5

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Total On-Farm Off-Farm
September 30, 2022

September 2022 Corn Stocks

United States

13.4

11.7

14.7

15.4 15.3

16.9 16.9 16.5 15.8 16.0 16.3

9.65

8.03

10.5

11.2 11.2

12.4 12.6

11.9

11.3 11.3 11.6

6.02

5.40

7.01

7.75 7.82

8.62 8.89 8.61

7.95 7.70 7.76

3.15 2.77

3.85

4.45 4.71

5.23 5.30 5.20 5.00

4.11 4.35

0.989 0.821 1.23

1.73 1.74

2.29 2.14 2.22 1.92

1.23 1.38

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22

Billion Bushels

Supply Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1 Sep 1
2021 U.S. Corn Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2022

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

September

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
2021 U.S. Corn Crop

Balance Sheet

September 30, 2022

Sept. 1, 2021 Beginning Stocks 1,235 1,235 N C

2021 Production 15,115 15,074 ↓ 4 1

Imports 2 5 * 2 5 * N C

Total Supply 16,375 16,333 ↓ 41

Exports 2,475 * 2,475 * N C

Food, Seed, and Industrial 6,775 * 6,775 * N C

Measured Disappearance 9,250 * 9,250 * NC

Ending Stocks 1,525 * 1,377 ↓ 148

Residual 5,600 * 5,706 ↑ 107

* WAOB Forecast - September WASDE Report

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Change

(Million Bushels)

Previous

Estimates

(Million Bushels)

September 30

Estimates

(Million Bushels)
September 30, 2022

September 2022 Soybeans

Stocks

19%

12%

10%

7% 9%

43%

September 1, 2022 Soybean

Total Stocks By State

Iowa Illinois Minnesota Indiana Nebraska Other

23%

77%

September 1, 2022 Soybean

Stocks By Position

On-Farm Off-Farm

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Iowa 51,548 ↑ 22.5 11,000 ↑ 4.8 40,548 ↑ 28.3

Illinois 32,942 ↓ 9.1 8,400 ↓ 16.0 24,542 ↓ 6.5

Minnesota 25,936 ↓ 8.5 9,800 ↑ 11.4 16,136 ↓ 17.4

Indiana 25,675 ↑ 26.4 7,300 ↑ 55.3 18,375 ↑ 17.6

Nebraska 20,286 ↓ 13.1 3,500 ↓ 58.3 16,786 ↑ 12.4

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

273,756 62,930 210,826

↑ 6.5 ↓ 7.6 ↑ 11.6

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm
September 30, 2022

September 2022 Soybean Stocks

United States

3.31 3.21

3.50

4.02 4.12

4.49

4.71 4.87

4.46

4.74 4.72

2.37

1.97

2.15

2.53

2.71

2.90

3.16

3.75

3.25

2.95

3.15

1.37

0.998 0.994

1.33

1.53

1.74

2.11

2.73

2.25

1.56

1.93

0.667

0.435 0.405

0.627

0.872 0.966

1.22

1.78

1.38

0.769

0.971

0.169 0.141 0.092 0.191 0.197 0.302 0.438

0.909

0.525

0.257 0.274

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22

Billion Bushels

Supply Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1 Sep 1
2021 U.S. Soybean Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2022

0.21

0.22

0.23

0.24

0.25

0.26

0.27

0.28

September

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
2021 U.S. Soybean Crop

Balance Sheet

September 30, 2022

Sept. 1, 2021 Beginning Stocks 257 257 N C

2021 Production 4,435 4,465 ↑ 3 0

Imports 1 5 * 1 5 * N C

Total Supply 4,707 4,737 ↑ 30

Crushings 2,205 * 2,205 * N C

Exports 2,145 * 2,145 * N C

Seed 102 * 102 * N C

Measured Disappearance 4,452 * 4,452 * NC

Ending Stocks 240 * 274 ↑ 34

Residual 15 * 12 ↓ 4

* WAOB Forecast - September WASDE Report

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Change

(Million Bushels)

Previous

Estimates

(Million Bushels)

September 30

Estimates

(Million Bushels)
September 30, 2022

September 2022

Stocks

Unit

Barley Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↑ 22.2 ↑ 56.0 ↓ 23.3

Durum Wheat Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↑ 17.2 ↑ 50.0 ↓ 10.4

Oats Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↑ 0.9 ↑ 29.5 ↓ 30.0

Sorghum Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↑ 162.0 ↑ 318.4 ↑ 157.4

Sunflower Pounds

% Change from Previous Year ↓ 25.3 ↓ 33.2 ↓ 23.6

50,776

45,516 249,320

53,236

294,836

31,500

41,650

2,460

62,591

44,257

22,415

20,941

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

(1,000 Units) (1,000 Units) (1,000 Units)

165,427

53,915

121,170
Selected Upcoming Reports

September 30, 2022

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September 30, 2022
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