October Crop Production

Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

October 12, 2021
Data Sources

October 12, 2021

Operator Reported

Survey

Objective Yield

Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Tree Inventory

Florida Citrus

Limb Count

Florida Citrus

Size and Drop

Florida Citrus

Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through

(Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt September 29

FSA

Certified Acres

1,901 Groves

July 12 - September 16

September 7 - September 24

Field Surveys

Ag Yield Sample Size = 8,888 September 29 - October 5

Sample Size = 3,930 September 24 - October 1

Farm Service Agency policy requires that producers participating in several programs 

submit an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms.

217,065 Acres July 1, 2020 - June 30, 2021

3,042 Groves
October 2021 Ag Yield Survey

Sample Sizes

October 12, 2021
Special Note

October 12, 2021

Each October, NASS considers revisions to planted and harvested acreage for 

canola, corn, dry edible beans, sorghum, soybeans, sugarbeets, and sunflower. 

Updates are based on all available data, including the latest certified acreage data 

from the Farm Service Agency (FSA). All States in the estimating program for these 

crops were subject to review and updating.

NASS previously reviewed corn, sorghum, soybeans, and sugarbeets in September 

due to the completeness of this season’s data for these crops and published 

updates at that time. No additional changes were made for corn, sorghum, or 

soybeans this month.
United States Corn Progress

Percent Harvested

October 12, 2021

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/12 9/19 9/27 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31 11/7 11/14 11/21 11/28 12/5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
October 2021 Corn

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Iowa 12,900 ↓ 5.1 12,450 ↓ 3.5 201 ↑ 13.6 2,502,450 ↑ 9.6

Illinois 11,000 ↓ 2.7 10,800 ↓ 2.7 210 ↑ 9.9 2,268,000 ↑ 7.0

Nebraska 9,900 ↓ 2.9 9,600 ↓ 2.9 190 ↑ 5.6 1,824,000 ↑ 2.5

Minnesota 8,300 ↑ 3.8 7,800 ↑ 3.9 178 ↓ 6.8 1,388,400 ↓ 3.2

Indiana 5,400 N C 5,250 N C 194 ↑ 3.7 1,018,500 ↑ 3.7

0.1

↑ 2.9 ↑

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

N C

3.4 ↑ 3.0 ↑ 6.4

N C ↑ 0.1 ↑

Planted Harvested Yield Production

93,304 85,085 176.5 15,018,542

Top 5 States - By Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
131.5

100.7

138.6

113.5

127.1126.7

134.4133.8

136.9138.2

129.3

142.2

160.3

147.9149.1150.7

153.3

164.4

152.6

146.8

123.1

158.1

171.0

168.4

174.6

176.6176.4

167.5

171.4

176.5

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Corn Yield

United States

October 12, 2021

Bushels per Acre
October 2021 Corn Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

October 12, 2021
October 2021 Corn

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

October 12, 2021
October 2021 Corn Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

October 12, 2021

Percent

7 3

9 6

5 1

9 6

8 0

9 6

2 9

9 4

6 8

9 6

6 9

0

1 7

4 1

1 3

4 9

1

2 5 2 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mature Dent
October 2021 Corn Objective Yield

Ears per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region

October 12, 2021

Ears per Acre Bushels per Acre

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

27,000

27,500

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ears per Acre Yield
10.8

13.8 14.2

13.6

15.1

14.6 14.3

13.6

14.1

15.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Corn Production

United States

October 12, 2021

Billion Bushels
2021 U.S. Corn Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

October 12, 2021

14.7

14.8

14.9

15.0

15.1

15.2

15.3

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Soybean Progress

Percent Harvested

October 12, 2021

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/12 9/19 9/27 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31 11/7 11/14 11/21 11/28

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
October 2021 Soybeans

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Illinois 10,600 ↑ 2.9 10,550 ↑ 2.9 64.0 ↑ 6.7 675,200 ↑ 9.8

Iowa 10,100 ↑ 6.9 10,020 ↑ 6.9 61.0 ↑ 13.0 611,220 ↑ 20.8

Minnesota 7,700 ↑ 3.4 7,630 ↑ 3.4 49.0 ↓ 2.0 373,870 ↑ 1.3

Indiana 5,700 ↓ 0.9 5,690 ↓ 0.7 60.0 ↑ 1.7 341,400 ↑ 1.0

Nebraska 5,600 ↑ 7.7 5,550 ↑ 7.6 61.0 ↑ 5.2 338,550 ↑ 13.1

↑ 1.0 ↑ 5.5

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 4.7

N C ↑ 1.8 ↑ 1.7

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

N C

Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 4.6

87,235 86,436 51.5 4,448,043

Planted Harvested Yield

Top 5 States - By Production
37.6

32.6

41.4

35.3

37.6

38.9 38.9

36.6

38.1

39.6

38.0

33.9

42.2

43.1 42.9

41.7

39.7

44.0 43.5

42.0

40.0

44.0

47.5 48.0

51.9

49.3

50.6

47.4

51.0 51.5

29

34

39

44

49

54

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Soybean Yield

United States

October 12, 2021

Bushels per Acre
October 2021 Soybean Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

October 12, 2021
October 2021 Soybeans

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

October 12, 2021
October 2021 Soybean Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

October 12, 2021

Percent

5 3

9 3

4 9

9 3

5 7

9 3

2 5

9 1

6 4

9 4

6 1

0 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mature
October 2021 Soybean Objective Yield

Pods per 18 Square Feet and Yield for 11 State Region

October 12, 2021

Pods per 18 Square Feet Bushels per Acre

35

40

45

50

55

60

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Pods per 18 Square Feet Yield
3.04

3.36

3.93 3.93

4.30 4.41 4.43

3.55

4.22

4.45

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Soybean Production

United States

October 12, 2021

Billion Bushels
2021 U.S. Soybean Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

October 12, 2021

4.25

4.30

4.35

4.40

4.45

4.50

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Cotton Progress

Percent Harvested

October 12, 2021

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/5 9/12 9/19 9/27 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31 11/7 11/14 11/21 11/28 12/5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
October 2021 Cotton

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

Texas 6,367 ↓ 6.9 5,266 ↑ 63.0 732.0 ↑ 6.9 8,032 ↑ 74.1

Georgia 1,170 ↓ 1.7 1,160 ↓ 1.7 931.0 ↑ 5.0 2,250 ↑ 3.2

Arkansas 475 ↓ 9.5 470 ↓ 9.6 1,226.0 ↑ 4.0 1,200 ↓ 6.0

Mississippi 445 ↓ 16.0 430 ↓ 18.1 1,150.0 ↑ 6.6 1,030 ↓ 12.7

Missouri 315 ↑ 6.8 310 ↑ 8.0 1,285.0 ↑ 12.3 830 ↑ 21.3

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

19.9 ↑ 2.8 ↑ 23.3

N C N C ↓ 2.7

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

11,191 9,922 871 18,004

↓ 2.7

↓ 7.5 ↑

Planted Harvested Yield Production

Top 5 States - By Production
700

606

708

537

705

673

625

607

632

705

665

730

855

831

814

879

813

776

812

790

892

822

838

766

867

905

882

831

847

871

480

530

580

630

680

730

780

830

880

930

980

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Cotton Yield

United States

October 12, 2021

Pounds per Acre
October 2021 Cotton Yield

Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Month

October 12, 2021
17.3

12.9

16.3

12.9

17.2

20.9

18.4

19.9

14.6

18.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Cotton Production

United States

October 12, 2021

Million Bales
2021 U.S. Cotton Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

October 12, 2021

16.8

17.0

17.2

17.4

17.6

17.8

18.0

18.2

18.4

18.6

18.8

19.0

19.2

19.4

19.6

August September October November December Final

Million Bales

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
October 2021 Sorghum

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Kansas 3,600 ↑ 20.0 3,350 ↑ 19.6 80.0 ↓ 5.9 268,000 ↑ 12.6

Texas 2,150 ↑ 19.4 1,830 ↑ 22.0 68.0 ↑ 7.9 124,440 ↑ 31.7

Oklahoma 430 ↑ 41.0 355 ↑ 54.3 62.0 ↑ 37.8 22,010 ↑ 112.7

Nebraska 320 ↑ 64.1 265 ↑ 76.7 81.0 ↓ 11.0 21,465 ↑ 57.3

Colorado 500 ↑ 35.1 435 ↑ 70.6 45.0 ↑ 125.0 19,575 ↑ 283.8

↓ 1.2 ↑ 26.4

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 24.8

7,340 6,520 72.3 471,450

N C N C ↑ 3.7 ↑ 3.8

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 28.0

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Production
72.6

59.9

72.7

55.6

67.3

69.2

67.3

69.7

60.9

59.9

50.6

52.7

69.6

68.5

56.1

73.2

65.1

69.4

71.9

54.0

49.6

59.6

67.6

76.0

77.9

71.7 72.1

73.0 73.2

72.3

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Sorghum Yield

United States

October 12, 2021

Bushels per Acre
October 2021 Sorghum Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

October 12, 2021
0.248

0.392

0.433

0.597

0.480

0.362 0.365

0.341

0.373

0.471

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Sorghum Production

United States

October 12, 2021

Billion Bushels
October 2021 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2021

Unit Unit

Canola Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 7.4 ↑ 7.6 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 18.0 ↑ 17.7 ↓ 42.1 ↓ 31.8

Dry Edible Beans Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 3.8 ↓ 3.6 ↑ 0.7 ↓ 3.0

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 19.6 ↓ 20.0 ↓ 14.2 ↓ 31.4

Alfalfa Hay Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C ↑ 0.7 ↑ 0.7

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 0.7 ↓ 8.6 ↓ 9.3

Other Hay Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A N C ↑ 2.0 ↑ 2.0

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 1.6 ↓ 0.5 ↓ 1.9

Peanuts Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 0.9 ↓ 0.9

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 5.0 ↓ 5.1 ↑ 7.7 ↑ 2.2

1,580 1,533

2,152

Yield

(Units per Acre)

6,292,250

1,399 1,341

N/A 16,123

N/A 35,414

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

1,686

2.99

2.04

4,105

72,326

Production

(1,000 Units)

2,354,080

22,609

48,156

2,105 1,119
October 2021 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

October 12, 2021

Unit Unit

Rice Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↑ <0.1 ↑ <0.1

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 16.3 ↓ 16.3 ↑ 0.1 ↓ 16.3

Sugarbeets Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 0.1 ↑ 0.1 ↑ 3.0 ↑ 3.1

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 0.1 ↑ 0.7 ↑ 5.4 ↑ 6.1

Sugarcane Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 0.1 ↓ 1.3 ↓ 1.3

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 1.6 ↓ 3.4 ↓ 5.0

Sunflower Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 7.0 ↓ 6.8 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 25.5 ↓ 26.6 ↓ 13.2 ↓ 36.3

Tobacco Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 0.9 ↓ 0.2 ↓ 1.1

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 11.7 ↑ 6.7 ↑ 19.1

1,280 1,223 1,554 1,900,920

N/A 221 2,097 463,835

31.0 35,675

N/A 932 36.8 34,295

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)

2,541 2,499 7,625 190,546

1,162 1,151
October 2021 Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts

Production

October 12, 2021

Unit

Pecans Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 15.5

Production

(1,000 Units)

258,000

302

266 264 254

269

305

241

256

305

258

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million Pounds

Pecan Production

United States
October 2021 Citrus

Utilized Production

October 12, 2021

All Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.4

Non-Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 15.4

Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 7.7

Grapefruit

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 3.8

Lemons

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 0.9

Tangerines

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 24.3

Production

(1,000 Tons)

883

3,878

2,274

1,604

442

892

11.07

9.37 9.03 8.73

7.70

6.08

8.14 7.85

6.90

6.10

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Million Tons

All Citrus Production

United States

8.27

6.77

6.35 6.09

5.09

3.88

5.43 5.25

4.43

3.88

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Million Tons

All Orange Production

United States
Selected Upcoming Reports

October 12, 2021

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

Cattle on Feed

Cotton Ginnings

Rice Stocks

October 29 Agricultural Prices

Cotton System

Fats and Oils

Flour Milling

Grain Crushings

Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

October 22

November 1

November 9
USDA Data Users’ Meeting

October 12, 2021

USDA Fall Data Users’ Meeting

October 13 & 14, 2021

12:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. ET

For more information and to register please go to

www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Meeting/index.php
#StatChat

October 12, 2021
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-2127

(800) 727-9540

nass@usda.gov