HOGS & PIGS INVENTORY

Executive Briefing

September 1, 2013 

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 27, 2013
September Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period: 

 August 31- September 17

Sample Size: 

 7,529

Collection Methods

Phone, mail, internet, personal interview

Main Data Items

Total Inventory - by class, weight group, and quarter

Sows Farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

September 27, 2013
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Revisions

Initial

Estimate

Previous 

Revision

Current

Revision

Net 

Revision

Current 

Estimate

Mar

2013

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

65.9 million -260,000

-0.4%

-430,000

-0.7%

-690,000

-1.0%

65.2 million

Pig 

Crop 29.0 million -357,000

-1.2%

-357,000

-1.2%

28.7 million

Jun

2013

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

66.6 million -45,000

-0.1%

66.6 million

September 27, 2013
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Inventory

September 1, 2013

Inventory Items (000) Hd % PY

All Hogs & Pigs 68,360 100.3

Breeding Hogs 5,814 100.4

Market Hogs 62,546 100.3

Jun – Aug Pig Crop 30,210 101.9

Sows Farrowing 2,925 99.9

Litter Rate Number % PY

Jun – Aug 2013 10.33 102.0

Farrowing Intentions (000) Hd % PY

Sep – Nov 2013 2,900 100.4

Dec 2013 – Feb 2014 2,870 100.9

September 27, 2013
58

60

62

64

66

68

70

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory

September 1, 2013

68.4

September 27, 2013
NASS Estimates Compared to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 100.3% 98.6% 96.4% – 100.3%

Breeding Hogs 100.4% 101.5% 100.6% – 102.0%

Market Hogs 100.3% 98.3% 95.9% – 100.2%

Jun – Aug Pig Crop 101.9% 99.6% 98.4% – 101.7%

Farrowing Intentions

Sep – Nov 2013 100.4% 101.0% 100.0% – 101.8%

Dec 2013 – Feb 2014 100.9% 101.1% 99.9% – 102.1%

September 27, 2013
All Hogs and Pigs 

Board vs Trade Expectations

6 0

6 1

6 2

6 3

6 4

6 5

6 6

6 7

6 8

6 9

7 0

Mar

07

Sep

07

Mar

08

Sep

08

 Mar

09

 Sep

09

 Mar

10

 Sep

10

 Mar

11

 Sep

11

 Mar

12

 Sep

12

 Mar

13

 Sep

13

ASB Final Est Trade Range ASB First Est

September 27, 2013
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

J-A

0 9

S-N

0 9

D-F

1 0

M-M

1 0

J-A

1 0

S-N

1 0

D-F

1 1

M-M

1 1

J-A

1 1

S-N

1 1

D-F

1 2

M-M

1 2

J-A

1 2

S-N

1 2

D-F

1 3

M-M

1 3

J-A

1 3

Feeder Pigs Slaughter

Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

September 27, 2013 
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed 

June - August

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ASB Estimate Sep-Nov Intentions Dec-Feb Intentions Million Head

September 27, 2013
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Jun 1

Estimate Slaughter Additions Sep 1Estimate

Sow

Utilization

(000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd Percent

2004 5,947 891 916 5,972 49%

2005 5,988 846 851 5,993 49%

2006 6,080 896 915 6,099 48%

2007 6,169 945 984 6,208 51%

2008 6,131 1,017 947 6,061 50%

2009 5,968 963 870 5,875 50%

2010 5,788 818 800 5,770 51%

2011 5,803 848 851 5,806 50%

2012 5,862 859 785 5,788 50%

2013 5,882 796 728 5,814 50%

September 27, 2013
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter 

 June - August

8.85

9.05

9.25

9.45

9.65

9.85

10.05

10.25

10.45

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

10.33

September 27, 2013
10.33

7.80

8.70

9.30

9.70

10.20

10.40

7.25

7.75

8.25

8.75

9.25

9.75

10.25

10.75

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1000-1999 2000-4999 5000+

Size of Operation

U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

June – August 2013

September 27, 2013
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers 

for Hogs & Corn 

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Year

$0.75

$1.75

$2.75

$3.75

$4.75

$5.75

$6.75

$7.75

Hogs Corn Hogs $/cwt

Corn $/bu

September 27, 2013
Upcoming Reports

October 11 Crop Production

October 18 Cattle on Feed

October 21 Milk Production

October 31 Agricultural Prices

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 27, 2013
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions Call or Email

202-720-3570

800-727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 27, 2013