Proposed New Source Performance Standards

for New Residential Wood Heaters,

Residential Hydronic Heaters,

Forced-Air Furnaces, and Residential Masonry Heaters

Benefits Assessment 

EO 12866 Review

Briefing for OMB

August 1st, 2013
Outline

• Benefits Methodology key Improvements

• Benefits Assessment Overview

• Summary of Sector Modeling of PM2.5

• Residential Wood Combustion Distribution

• Health Benefits

• Appendix

– Corrected input data in Figure 7-2

– Sector vs. National Benefit per Ton (BPT)

– Health data considered in PM RIA

RWH-Proposal 2
Benefits Methodology Key Improvements

1. Source Apportionment Modeling used previously

– RICE NESHAP reconsiderations

– Petroleum Refineries NSPS

– Ferroalloys RTR Proposal 

– EGU GHG NSPS reconsideration proposal

2. Health Benefits Studies and the population Data have been updated 

and are consistent with the PM NAAQS RIA

– Harvard Six Cities cohort – Replaced Laden et al. (2006) with Lepeule et al. 

(2012) and Pope Study (2002) replaced with Krewski (2009)

– Morbidity Studies update – Added 1 new respiratory hospitalization study 

and 1 new asthma ER visit study

– Non-fatal heart attacks – Updated survival rates

– Population Data updated using 2010 Census data

3. Information documented in the current TSD

– This rule’s estimates using BPT in 2020 (closest to 2022) in $2010

– Estimates reflecting only directly emitted particulate matter

RWH-Proposal 3
Benefits Assessment Overview

• Preliminary results use benefit-per-ton approach, as used in 

other recent NSPS RIAs and include PM NAAQS RIA

– Human health benefits monetized for Direct PM2.5 emissions

– PM2.5 precursor VOCs were not monetized

– Monetized benefits were averaged yearly from 2014 to 2022

– Proposed Option: $1.8 to $4.2 billion, 210 to 470 premature deaths

– Alternative: $1.9 to $4.2 billion, 210 to 480 premature deaths

• Results for RIA were updated to include

– New health functions developed for PM NAAQS RIA,

– New version of BenMAP, and

– Source-apportioned air quality modeling.

• Un-quantified benefits addressed qualitatively

– VOCs, Black Carbon, HAPs and CO benefits

– Ozone and Visibility co-benefits 

RWH-Proposal 4
Summary of Sector Modeling of PM2.5

• 12km CAMx with 2005 model platform

• 2005 and 2016 model years (includes NOx SIP call, boiler MACT proposal, RICE,

CSAPR proposal, final cement kilns rule)

• Annual mean PM2.5

• 25 sectors modeled in total. 12 sectors most relevant to SPPD rule support

12 Sectors most relevant to future SPPD rules 13 Other sectors

Cement kilns Refineries Agricultural ammonia Non-road

Coke ovens

Residential wood 

combustion Airport/loco/marine On-road

Electric arc furnaces Taconite mining Biogenic Other area

Ferroalloy production Canada and Mexico Other non-EGU

Integrated iron and steel Commercial marine

Iron and steel foundries Dust

Oil and gas production Electrical generating units

Oil and gas storage/transfer Fires

Pulp and paper Lateral boundary inflow 5
Conceptual overview of the steps for calculating 

benefit per-ton estimates

RWH-Proposal 6
RWH-Proposal 7

Modeled	annual	mean	PM2.5 levels	(ug/m3)	attributable	to	RWH Sector	in	2016
Calculating Health Impacts in BenMAP

Ln(y) = Ln(B) + ß(PM)

Incidence 

(log scale)

PM concentration

Ln(B)

∆ Y = Yo(1-e -ß∆ PM) * Pop

ß - Effect estimate

Yo – Baseline Incidence

Pop – Exposed population

Health impact function

Epidemiology Study

∆PM – Air quality change 8
Baseline Air Quality Post-Policy Scenario Air Quality

Incremental Air Quality

Improvement

PM2.5

Reduction

Population

Ages 18-65

Background

Incidence

Rate

Effect

Estimate

Mortality 

Reduction

∆ Y = Yo (1-e -ß∆ PM) * Pop

9
10

Health Benefits of Proposed Wood Heaters 

NSPS (2014-2022) Reductions in Health Incidences per year (2014-2022)*

Proposed 

Option Alternative

Avoided Premature Mortality

Krewski et al. 210 210

Lepeule et al. 470 480

Avoided Morbidity

Emergency department visits for asthma (all 

ages) 110 100

Acute bronchitis (age 8–12) 320 320

Lower respiratory symptoms (age 7–14) 4100 4200

Upper respiratory symptoms (asthmatics age 

9–11) 5900 6000

Minor restricted-activity days (age 18–65) 170000 170000

Lost work days (age 18–65) 28000 28000

Asthma exacerbation (age 6–18) 15000 15000

Hospital admissions—respiratory (all ages) 54 54

Hospital admissions—cardiovascular (age 

> 18) 66 66

Non-Fatal Heart Attacks (age >18)

Peters et al. (2001) 230 230

Pooled estimate of 4 studies 25 25

*All estimates are for the full implementation year (2022), and are rounded to two significant figures so numbers may not sum across columns. All fine 

particles are assumed to have equivalent health effects, but the benefit per ton estimates vary because each ton of precursor reduced has a different 

propensity to become PM2.5. These benefits incorporate the conversion from precursor emissions to ambient fine particles. 

Total Monetized Benefits per year (2014-2022)

(billions of 2010$)*

3% discount 

rate

7% discount

rate

Non-Monetized Benefits

Proposed 

Option $1.8 to $4.2 $1.7 to $3.8 3,200 tpy VOC

Alternative $1.9 to $4.2 $1.7 to $3.8 3,200 tpy VOC

Monetized Benefits by Category for 

the Proposed Option - Krewski at 3% 

Wood Stoves

Single Burn Rate Stoves

Pellet Stoves

Furnace: indoor,

cordwood

Hydronic Heating

Systems

RWH-Proposal
APPENDIX 

RWH-Proposal 11
Pollutant

Emissions 

Reductions (tons)

Benefit per ton 

(Krewski, 3%)

Benefit per ton 

(Lepeule, 3%)

Benefit per ton 

(Krewski, 7%)

Benefit per ton 

(Lepeule, 7%)

Total Monetized Benefits 

(millions 2010$ at 3%)

Total Monetized Benefits 

(millions 2010$ at 7%)

Proposed

Direct PM2.5 4,825 $380,000 $860,000 $350,000 $780,000 $1,800 to $4,200 $1,700 to $3,800 

PM2.5 Precursors

VOC xxxx _ _ _ _ _ to _ _ to _

Total $1,800 to $4,200 $1,700 to $3,800 

Alternative

Direct PM2.5 4,878 $380,000 $860,000 $350,000 $780,000 $1,900 to $4,200 $1,700 to $3,800 

PM2.5 Precursors

VOC xxxx _ _ _ _ _ to _ _ to _

Total

$1,900 to $4,200 $1,700 to $ 3,800 

Corrected Table 7-2 (page 7.-9) : Summary of Monetized PM2.5-Related Health Benefits 

Estimates for the Proposed Residential Wood Heaters NSPS in the 2014-2022 Timeframe (2010$)* 

RWH-Proposal 12
PM2.5 Studies used PM NAAQS RIA

(in 2006 RIA, added at PM proposal, added at PM final)

• Mortality

– Krewski et al. (2009) ACS cohort 30+

– Lepeule et al. (2012) H6C cohort 25+

• AMI

– Peters et al. (2001) Boston, MA 18+

– Sullivan et al. (2005) King County, WA 18+

– Pope et al. (2006) Wasatch Front, Utah 18+

– Zanobetti & Schwartz (2006) Boston, MA 18+

– Zanobetti et al. (2009) 26 communities 18+

• Respiratory Hospitalizations

– Moolgavkar (2000) Los Angeles, CA 18-64

– Shephard (2003) Seattle, WA <18

– Babin et al. (2007) Washington, D.C. <18

– Zanobetti et al. (2009) 26 communities 65+

– Kloog et al. (2012) New England 65+

• Cardiovascular Hospitalizations

– Moolgavkar (2000) Los Angeles, CA 20-64

– Bell et al. (2008) 202 counties 65+

– Peng et al. (2008) 108 counties 65+

– Peng et al. (2009) 119 urban counties 65+

– Zanobetti et al. (2009) 26 communities 65+

• Respiratory ED Visits

– Slaughter et al. (2005) Spokane, WA 0-99

– Mar et al. (2010) Tacoma, WA 0-99

– Glad et al. (2011) Pittsburgh, PA 0-99

• Asthma Exacerbation

– Ostro et al. (2001) LA/Pasadena, CA 6-18

– Mar et al. (2004) Spokane, WA 6-18

• Minor Restricted Activity Days

– Ostro and Rothschild (1989) Nationwide 18-65

– Patel et al. (2010) NYC 18-65

• Acute Bronchitis

– Dockery et al. (1996) 24 communities 8-12

• Work Loss days

– Ostro (1987) Nationwide 18-65

• Upper Respiratory Symptoms

– Pope et al. (1991) Utah Valley 9-11

• Lower Respiratory Symptoms

– Schwartz and Neas (2000) 6 cities 7-14

13
Comparing the Strengths of Sector Modeling 

and Response Surface-Based Modeling

Sector modeling

• Refined characterization of air 

quality changes for key sectors

• More current modeling 

platform

• Better spatial representation 

of air quality impacts

• Models PM2.5 and ozone

• Addresses interagency 

feedback on benefit per ton 

metrics

Response Surface Model

• Accounts for non-linearities

and interactions in PM2.5 air 

quality

• Ability to estimate air 

quality changes from a 

broad class of precursors 

and source categories

• Can estimate air quality 

changes nationally and 

within 9 urban areas

14