HOGS & PIGS INVENTORY

Executive Briefing

September 1, 2012 

September 28, 2012 

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
September Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period: August 31- September 18

Sample Size: 8,042

Collection Methods

Phone, mail, internet, personal interview

Main Data Items

Total Inventory - by class, weight group, and quarter

Sows Farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

September 28, 2012 
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Revisions

September 28, 2012

Initial

Estimate

Previous 

Revision

Current

Revision

Net 

Revision

Current 

Estimate

Mar

2012

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

64.9 million +210,000

+0.3%

-145,000

-0.2%

+65,000

+0.1%

64.9 million

Pig 

Crop 28.7 million -131,000

-0.5%

-131,000

-0.5%

28.5 million

Jun

2012

All 

Hogs 

and 

Pigs

65.8 million -70,000

-0.1%

65.8 million
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Inventory

September 1, 2012

Inventory Items (000) Hd % PY

All Hogs & Pigs 67,472 100.4

Breeding Hogs 5,788 99.7

Market Hogs 61,684 100.4

Jun – Aug Pig Crop 29,286 99.8

Sows Farrowing 2,892 98.8

Litter Rate Number % PY

Jun – Aug 2012 10.13 101.0

Farrowing Intentions (000) Hd % PY

Sep – Nov 2012 2,850 97.3

Dec 2012 – Feb 2013 2,821 98.5

September 28, 2012 
56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Year

U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory

September 1, 2012

67.5

September 28, 2012 
NASS Estimates Compared to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 100.4% 100.7% 99.0% – 101.7%

Breeding Hogs 99.7% 99.9% 98.5% – 100.8%

Market Hogs 100.4% 100.8% 99.0% – 101.9%

Jun – Aug Pig Crop 99.8% 100.2% 99.8% – 100.9%

Farrowing Intentions

Sep – Nov 2012 97.3% 98.7% 97.6% – 99.7%

Dec 2012 – Feb 2013 98.5% 98.4% 97.3% – 100.3%

September 28, 2012 
All Hogs and Pigs 

Board vs Trade Expectations

5 8

5 9

6 0

6 1

6 2

6 3

6 4

6 5

6 6

6 7

6 8

6 9

7 0

Mar

06

Sep

06

Mar

07

Sep

07

Mar

08

Sep

08

 Mar

09

 Sep

09

 Mar

10

 Sep

10

 Mar

11

 Sep

11

 Mar

12

 Sep

12

ASB Final Est Trade Range ASB First Est

September 28, 2012 
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

J-A

0 8

S-N

0 8

D-F

0 9

M-M

0 9

J-A

0 9

S-N

0 9

D-F

1 0

M-M

1 0

J-A

1 0

S-N

1 0

D-F

1 1

M-M

1 1

J-A

1 1

S-N

1 1

D-F

1 2

M-M

1 2

J-A

1 2

Feeder Pigs Slaughter

Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

September 28, 2012 
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed 

June - August

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

ASB Estimate Sep-Nov Intentions Dec-Feb Intentions

September 28, 2012 

Million Head
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Jun 1

Estimate Slaughter Additions Sep 1Estimate

Sow

Utilization

(000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd Percent

2003 6,036 883 795 5,948 48%

2004 5,947 891 916 5,972 49%

2005 5,988 846 851 5,993 49%

2006 6,080 896 915 6,099 48%

2007 6,169 945 984 6,208 51%

2008 6,131 1,017 947 6,061 50%

2009 5,968 963 870 5,875 50%

2010 5,788 818 800 5,770 51%

2011 5,803 848 851 5,806 50%

2012 5,862 858 784 5,788 49%

September 28, 2012 
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter 

 June - August

8.70

8.90

9.10

9.30

9.50

9.70

9.90

10.10

10.30

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Year

10.13

September 28, 2012 
10.13

7.60

8.40

9.00

9.40

10.00

10.20

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1000-1999 2000-4999 5000+

Size of Operation

U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

June – August 2012

September 28, 2012 
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers 

for Hogs & Corn 

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Year

$1.75

$2.25

$2.75

$3.25

$3.75

$4.25

$4.75

$5.25

$5.75

$6.25

$6.75

$7.25

$7.75

Hogs Corn Hogs $/cwt

Corn $/bu

September 28, 2012 
Upcoming Reports

October 11 Crop Production

October 19 Cattle on Feed

Milk Production

October 31 Agricultural Prices

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 28, 2012