Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

September 11, 2020
Special Note

September 11, 2020

• All forecasts in the report are based on conditions as of September 1. Any 

potential impacts from below freezing temperatures after September 1 will be 

reflected in future reports.

• NASS collected additional harvested acreage information for corn and soybeans 

in Iowa in response to the August 10 derecho. Corn harvested for grain area was 

reduced 550,000 acres; soybean acres were unchanged. NASS will collect 

harvested acreage for corn and soybeans in Iowa for the October Crop 

Production report since producer decisions were not final for all impacted acres.

• As is done every year in September, planted and harvested acreage was 

reviewed for cotton, peanuts, and rice using all available data, including FSA 

Certified Acreage Data.
Data Sources

September 11, 2020

September 2020 Ag Yield Sample Sizes

Operator Reported

Survey

Field Objective Yield

Survey Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through

(Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt August 27

Ag Yield Sample Size = 9,140 August 29 - September 7

Sample Size = 3,930 August 25 - September 1
Iowa Derecho

August 10, 2020

September 11, 2020

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Research_and

_Science/Disaster-Analysis/index.php
U.S. Drought Monitor

September 1, 2020

September 11, 2020
United States Corn Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

September 11, 2020

Percent

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

5/24 5/31 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 7/19 7/26 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
United States Corn Progress

Percent Dented

September 11, 2020

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 2020 Corn

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 11, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Iowa 14,000 ↑ 3.7 13,000 ↓ 0.4 191 ↓ 3.5 2,483,000 ↓ 3.9

Illinois 10,900 ↑ 3.8 10,700 ↑ 4.9 203 ↑ 12.2 2,172,100 ↑ 17.7

Nebraska 9,800 ↓ 3.0 9,450 ↓ 3.7 188 ↑ 3.3 1,776,600 ↓ 0.5

Minnesota 8,100 ↑ 3.8 7,650 ↑ 5.5 200 ↑ 15.6 1,530,000 ↑ 22.0

Indiana 5,400 ↑ 8.0 5,250 ↑ 8.9 186 ↑ 10.1 976,500 ↑ 19.9

Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

N C

2.6 ↑ 6.6 ↑ 9.4

0.7 ↓ 1.8 ↓ 2.5

Planted Harvested Yield Production

92,006 83,473 178.5 14,899,557

↓

↑ ↑

Top 5 States - By Production

2.6

Planted Harvested Yield

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
108.6

131.5

100.7

138.6

113.5

127.1126.7

134.4133.8

136.9138.2

129.3

142.2

160.3

147.9149.1150.7

153.3

164.4

152.6

146.8

123.1

158.1

171.0

168.4

174.6

176.6176.4

167.4

178.5

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

September 2020 Corn Yield

United States

September 11, 2020

Bushels per Acre
September 2020 Corn Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

September 11, 2020
September 2020 Corn

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

September 11, 2020
September 2020 Corn Objective Yield

Ears per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region

September 11, 2020

Ears per Acre Bushels per Acre

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

27,000

27,500

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Ears per Acre Yield
12.3

10.8

13.8 14.2

13.6

15.1

14.6 14.3

13.6

14.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

September 2020 Corn Production

United States

September 11, 2020

Billion Bushels
2020 U.S. Corn Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 11, 2020

14.7

14.8

14.9

15.0

15.1

15.2

15.3

15.4

15.5

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Soybean Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

September 11, 2020

Percent

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

5/24 5/31 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 7/19 7/26 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
United States Soybean Progress

Percent Dropping Leaves

September 11, 2020

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 2020 Soybeans

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 11, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Illinois 10,400 ↑ 4.5 10,350 ↑ 5.0 62.0 ↑ 14.8 641,700 ↑ 20.5

Iowa 9,400 ↑ 2.2 9,320 ↑ 2.2 54.0 ↓ 1.8 503,280 ↑ 0.3

Minnesota 7,400 ↑ 8.0 7,330 ↑ 8.3 52.0 ↑ 18.2 381,160 ↑ 28.0

Indiana 5,700 ↑ 5.6 5,680 ↑ 6.0 60.0 ↑ 17.6 340,800 ↑ 24.7

Nebraska 5,000 ↑ 2.0 4,950 ↑ 2.3 60.0 ↑ 2.6 297,000 ↑ 4.9

↑ 9.5 ↑ 21.4

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 10.2

N C N C ↓ 2.6 ↓ 2.5

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 10.8

83,825 83,020 51.9 4,312,819

Planted Harvested Yield Production
34.2

37.6

32.6

41.4

35.3

37.6

38.9 38.9

36.6

38.1

39.6

38.0

33.9

42.2

43.1 42.9

41.7

39.7

44.0 43.5

42.0

40.0

44.0

47.5 48.0

51.9

49.3

50.6

47.4

51.9

29

34

39

44

49

54

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

September 2020 Soybean Yield

United States

September 11, 2020

Bushels per Acre
September 2020 Soybean Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

September 11, 2020
September 2020 Soybeans

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

September 11, 2020
September 2020 Soybean Objective Yield

Pods per 18 Square Feet and Yield for 11 State Region

September 11, 2020

Pods per 18 Square Feet Bushels per Acre

35

40

45

50

55

60

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final September October November Final

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pods per 18 Square Feet Yield
September 2020 Soybean Production

United States

September 11, 2020

Billion Bushels

3.10 3.04

3.36

3.93 3.93

4.30 4.41 4.43

3.55

4.31

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 U.S. Soybean Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 11, 2020

4.10

4.15

4.20

4.25

4.30

4.35

4.40

4.45

4.50

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Cotton Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

September 11, 2020

Percent

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

5/31 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 7/19 7/26 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
United States Cotton Progress

Percent Bolls Opening

September 11, 2020

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 2020 Cotton

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 11, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

Texas 6,836 ↓ 3.2 3,880 ↓ 26.2 737 ↑ 27.5 5,959 ↓ 6.0

Georgia 1,200 ↓ 14.3 1,190 ↓ 13.8 932 ↓ 2.2 2,310 ↓ 15.7

Arkansas 525 ↓ 15.3 520 ↓ 14.8 1,200 ↑ 1.3 1,300 ↓ 13.7

Mississippi 530 ↓ 25.4 525 ↓ 25.0 1,179 ↑ 6.0 1,290 ↓ 20.4

Alabama 450 ↓ 16.7 445 ↓ 16.4 976 ↑ 5.2 905 ↓ 12.0

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

↓ 22.5 ↑ 10.6 ↓ 14.3

↓ 0.6 ↓ 2.6 ↓ 3.0

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

12,116 9,005 910 17,064

↓ 5.6

↓ 11.8

Planted Harvested Yield Production
September 2020 Cotton Acres

United States

September 11, 2020

Million Acres

14.7

12.3

10.4

11.1

8.6

10.1

12.7

14.1

13.7

12.1

9.5 9.3

7.5

9.4

8.1

9.5

11.1

10.0

11.6

9.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Planted Harvested
652

700

606

708

537

705

673

625

607

632

705

665

730

855

831

814

879

813

776

812

790

892

822

838

766

867

905

882

823

910

480

530

580

630

680

730

780

830

880

930

980

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

September 2020 Cotton Yield

United States

September 11, 2020

Pounds per Acre
September 2020 Cotton Yield

Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Month

September 11, 2020
September 2020 Cotton Production

United States

September 11, 2020

Million Bales

15.6

17.3

12.9

16.3

12.9

17.2

20.9

18.4

19.9

17.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 11, 2020

September 2020 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

Unit Unit

Chickpeas Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 16.4 ↓ 16.5 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 43.7 ↓ 38.3 ↑ 1.1 ↓ 37.6

Pima Cotton Lb Bale

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 2.8 ↑ 1.8 ↓ 1.0 ↑ 0.8

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.3 ↓ 13.5 ↓ 5.7 ↓ 18.5

Upland Cotton Lb Bale

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.6 ↓ 2.7 ↓ 3.2 ↓ 5.8

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.8 ↓ 22.6 ↑ 11.0 ↓ 14.2

Lentils Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 5.3 ↑ 5.4 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.6 ↑ 12.8 ↑ 7.0 ↑ 20.7

Peanuts Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 10.0 ↑ 10.2 ↓ 0.8 ↑ 9.3

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 16.6 ↑ 16.6 ↑ 6.0 ↑ 23.6

Dry Edible Peas Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 5.5 ↑ 5.2 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 9.4 ↓ 9.8 ↓ 8.1 ↓ 17.1

1,665 1,623

999 949

254

Yield

(Units per Acre)

6,793,220

18,534

201 193

11,915 8,812

518 486

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

1,388

899

1,338

4,185

1,953

6,504

Production

(1,000 Units)

3,889

559

16,505

249 1,561
September 11, 2020

September 2020 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

Unit Unit

Rice Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 4.0 ↑ 4.1 ↓ 0.9 ↑ 3.1

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 19.6 ↑ 20.9 ↑ 0.8 ↑ 21.8

Sorghum Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 3.5 ↓ 3.5

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.7 ↑ 3.6 ↑ 1.2 ↑ 4.8

Sugarcane Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 0.9 ↑ 1.1 ↑ 2.0

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 2.1 ↑ 4.6 ↑ 6.9

Sugarbeets Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 0.6 ↓ 0.7

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 1.4 ↑ 15.1 ↑ 6.8 ↑ 22.9

Tobacco Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 0.5 ↓ 0.6 ↓ 1.1

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 13.8 ↓ 8.7 ↓ 21.3

1,148 1,127 31.2 35,143

N/A 196 1,880 368,065

73.9 357,910

N/A 932 36.6 34,138

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)

3,037 2,988 7,529 224,952

5,620 4,845
September 11, 2020

September 2020 Fruit and Nuts

Production

38.5

35.5

45.0

36.0

31.0

44.0

32.0

51.0

44.0

71.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Thousand Tons

Hazelnut Production

Oregon

461

497 492

571

606

689

630

679 653

780

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Thousand Tons

Walnut Production

California

Unit

Hazelnuts (OR) Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 61.4

Navel Oranges (CA) Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 5.2

Walnuts (CA) Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 19.4

Production

(1,000 Units)

71.0

1,680

780
Selected Upcoming Reports

September 11, 2020

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

September 24 Hogs and Pigs

September 25 Cattle on Feed

Agricultural Prices

Grain Stocks

Small Grains Summary

Cotton System

Fats & Oils

Grain Crushings

Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production October 9

October 1

September 30
USDA NASS Data Users’ Meeting

September 11, 2020

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

12:30 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. EDT

Registration information coming soon.
#StatChat

September 11, 2020
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-2127

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