12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

September 12, 2019
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

Field Crops Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops

Corn Navel Oranges (CA) Tobacco

Soybeans Hazelnuts Sugarbeets

Cotton Walnuts Sugarcane

Rice Dry Edible Peas

Peanuts Lentils

Sorghum Chickpeas

Contents
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

Ag Yield Objective Yield

Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement

Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Cotton, and 

Soybeans

Sample Size 9,624 2,905

Collection Period Aug 30 – Sept 6 Aug 24 – Sept 1

Survey Overview
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percent

U.S. Corn Progress

Percent Dented

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 USDA-NASS

9-12-19
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

September 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Corn

Planted Mil Ac 90.0 NC +1.0

Harvested Mil Ac 82.0 NC +0.3

Yield Bu/Ac 168.2 -0.8 -4.6

Production Bil Bu 13.8 -0.7 -4.3
9.43 9.92 9.50

8.97

10.1

11.8

11.1

10.5

13.0

12.0

13.1

12.4 12.3

10.8

13.8

14.2 13.6

15.1

14.6 14.4

13.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Billion Bushels

Corn for Grain Production

United States

USDA-NASS

9-12-19
USDA-NASS

9-12-19
Final - 1 3

Final - 1 4

Final - 1 5

Final - 1 6

Final - 1 7

Final - 1 8

Sept - 1 9

Sept - 1 3

Sept - 1 4

Sept - 1 5

Sept - 1 6

Sept - 1 7

Sept - 1 8

0.300

0.310

0.320

0.330

0.340

0.350

0.360

0.370

28,100 28,300 28,500 28,700 28,900 29,100 29,300 29,500

Lbs/Ear

Ears Per Acre

Corn Objective Yield Region

Ears Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight

Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears

USDA-NASS

9-12-19
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

Corn Objective Yield Procedures Reference Sheet

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Understanding_Statistics/Corn%20Objective%20Yield%20Reference.pdf
USDA-NASS

9-12-19
USDA-NASS

9-12-19
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

12.7

12.9

13.1

13.3

13.5

13.7

13.9

14.1

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

2019 United States Corn Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percent

U.S. Soybeans Progress

Percent Setting Pods

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

September 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Soybeans

Planted Mil Ac 76.7 NC -14.0

Harvested Mil Ac 75.9 NC -13.9

Yield Bu/Ac 47.9 -1.2 -7.2

Production Bil Bu 3.63 -1.3 -20.1
2.65

2.76

2.89

2.76

2.45

3.12 3.07

3.20

2.68

2.97

3.36 3.33

3.10

3.04

3.36

3.93 3.93

4.30

4.41 4.54

3.63

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Billion Bushels

Soybean Production

United States

USDA-NASS

9-12-19
USDA-NASS

9-12-19
Final - 1 3

Final - 1 4 Final - 1 5

Final - 1 6 Final - 1 7

Final - 1 8

Sept -1 9

Sept - 1 4

Sept - 1 5

Sept - 1 6

Sept - 1 7 Sept - 1 8

Sept - 1 3

0.295

0.300

0.305

0.310

0.315

0.320

0.325

0.330

0.335

0.340

0.345

0.350

0.355

0.360

1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900 1,950

Grams/Pod

Pods Per 18 Square Feet

Soybean Objective Yield Region

Pods Per 18 Square Feet vs. Implied Pod Weight

Implied Pod Weight = (Published Yield / Pods) /0.0889 USDA-NASS

9-12-19
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Understanding_Statistics/Soybean%20Objective%20Yield%20Reference.pdf

Soybean Objective Yield Procedures Reference Sheet
USDA-NASS

9-12-19
USDA-NASS

9-12-19
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

NASS

Estimate

Low

Of Expectations

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

3.45

3.55

3.65

3.75

3.85

3.95

4.05

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

2019 United States Soybean Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

September 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

All Cotton

Planted Mil Ac 13.8 -1.0 -2.4

Harvested Mil Ac 12.5 -1.0 +22.6

Yield Lb/Ac 839 -1.9 -2.9

Production Mil Bls 21.9 -2.9 +19.0
13.8

12.5

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Million Acres

All Cotton Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

9-12-19
17.0 17.2

20.3

17.2

18.3

23.3 23.9

21.6

19.2

12.8

12.2

18.1

15.6

17.3

12.9

16.3

12.9

17.2

20.9

18.4

21.9

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Million Bales

All Cotton Production

United States

USDA-NASS

9-12-19
USDA-NASS

9-12-19
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

September 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Rice

Planted Mil Ac 2.54 -7.8 -13.8

Harvested Mil Ac 2.48 -8.6 -15.0

Yield Lbs/Ac 7,563 -0.2 -1.7

Production Mil Cwt 187 -8.8 -16.5
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

September 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Peanuts

Planted Mil Ac 1.43 +4.5 -<0.1

Harvested Mil Ac 1.38 +4.5 +1.1

Yield Lbs/Ac 4,086 +1.9 +2.4

Production Bil Lbs 5.65 +6.6 +3.5
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

September 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Sorghum Mil Bu 352 -0.6 -3.7

All Tobacco Mil Lbs 483 -4.3 -9.5

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 33.5 -3.5 +1.2

Sugarcane Mil Tons 34.8 +1.0 +0.6
September 2019 Crop Production

USDA-NASS

9-12-19

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Chickpeas Mil Cwt 7.17 NA -43.7

Dry Edible Peas Mil Cwt 22.3 NA +39.9

Lentils Mil Cwt 6.55 NA -22.1
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

September 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season 

Navel Oranges (CA) Mil Tons 1.52 NA -6.9

Hazelnuts (OR) Thou Tons 49.0 NA -3.9

Walnuts (CA) Thou Tons 630 NA -6.8
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

Release Date Report Title

September 20 Cattle on Feed

September 27 Ag Prices

Hogs and Pigs

September 30 Grain Stocks

Small Grains Summary

October 1 CAIR: Cotton System, Fats & Oils, and Grain Crushings

October 10 Crop Production

Cotton Ginnings

Upcoming Reports
USDA-NASS

9-12-19

USDA NASS Data Users’ Meeting

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

American Farm Bureau Federation

600 Maryland Ave SW #1000w

Washington, DC 20024

USDA 

Data Users’ Meeting
USDA-NASS

9-12-19
United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

202-720-2127

800-727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov