Small Grains Summary

Grain Stocks

Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

September 30, 2021
Special Note

September 30, 2021

The marketing year for corn and soybeans is finished and a thorough review of the 

balance sheet was completed. This process, which is normal for this time of the 

year, led to revisions in acreage, yield, and production for the 2020 crop.

U.S. corn production for 2020 is revised down 71.0 million bushels and U.S. soybean 

production is revised up 80.8 million bushels from the previous estimate.
Data Sources

September 30, 2021

Operator Reported September Ag Survey Sample Size = 62,183 August 30 - September 16

Surveys Off-Farm Grain Stocks ~8,300 Facilities August 26 - September 17

Field Objective Yield

Survey Winter Wheat

FSA

Certified Acres

FSA and RMA

Failed Acres

Acres reported as "failed" to either the Farm Service Agency (FSA) or the Risk 

Management Agency (RMA) are considered minimum levels of abandonment.

Sample Size = 1,155 Prior to Harvest

Farm Service Agency policy requires that producers participating in several programs 

submit an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms.
September 2021 Ag Survey

Sample Sizes

September 30, 2021

Alaska = 153
2021 Winter Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 30, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Kansas 7,300 ↑ 10.6 7,000 ↑ 12.0 52.0 ↑ 15.6 364,000 ↑ 29.4

Oklahoma 4,400 ↑ 3.5 2,950 ↑ 13.5 39.0 ↓ 2.5 115,050 ↑ 10.6

Texas 5,500 ↑ 12.2 2,000 ↓ 2.4 37.0 ↑ 23.3 74,000 ↑ 20.3

Washington 1,750 ↓ 2.8 1,690 ↓ 3.4 42.0 ↓ 44.7 70,980 ↓ 46.6

Colorado 2,200 ↑ 15.8 1,880 ↑ 23.7 37.0 ↑ 37.0 69,560 ↑ 69.5

↓ 1.4 ↑ 9.0

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 10.5

33,648 25,464 50.2 1,277,365

↓ 0.1 ↑ 0.1 ↓ 3.1 ↓ 3.1

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 10.6

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Production
Winter Wheat Acres

United States

September 30, 2021

Million Acres

40.9

43.2 42.4

39.7

36.1

32.7 32.5

31.5

30.5

33.6

34.6

32.7 32.3 32.3

30.2

25.3 24.7 24.6

23.0

25.5

20.0

24.0

28.0

32.0

36.0

40.0

44.0

48.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Planted Harvested
38.2

40.2 40.2

37.7

37.1

44.6

46.9

47.8

44.6

43.4

38.2

46.7

43.5

44.3

41.6 41.7

47.1

44.0

46.5 46.1

47.1 47.3

42.6 42.5

55.3

50.2

47.9

53.6

50.9

50.2

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

56.0

61.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Winter Wheat Yield

United States

September 30, 2021

Bushels per Acre
2021 Winter Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

September 30, 2021
35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

55

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50 June July

August Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Heads per Square Foot Yield

2021 Winter Wheat Objective Yield

Heads per Square Foot and Yield for 10 State Region

September 30, 2021

Heads per Square Foot Bushels per Acre
1.63

1.54

1.38 1.37

1.67

1.27

1.18

1.32

1.17

1.28

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Winter Wheat Production

United States

September 30, 2021

Billion Bushels
2021 U.S. Winter Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2021

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 5,500 ↓ 3.5 5,210 ↓ 7.5 33.5 ↓ 31.6 174,535 ↓ 36.7

Minnesota 1,210 ↓ 15.4 1,160 ↓ 14.7 48.0 ↓ 9.4 55,680 ↓ 22.8

Montana 2,900 ↓ 13.4 2,180 ↓ 34.1 17.0 ↓ 55.3 37,060 ↓ 70.5

Idaho 510 N C 485 ↓ 2.0 63.0 ↓ 30.8 30,555 ↓ 32.2

South Dakota 720 ↓ 6.5 590 ↓ 21.9 29.0 ↓ 38.3 17,110 ↓ 51.8

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

16.0 ↓ 32.9 ↓ 43.6

↓ 1.4 ↓ 9.4 ↑ 6.5

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

11,420 10,165 32.6 331,140

↓ 3.6

↓ 7.2 ↓

Planted Harvested Yield Production

Top 5 States - By Production

2021 Other Spring Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 30, 2021
12.3

11.6

13.0

13.4

11.6

11.0

13.2

12.7

12.3

12.0 11.4

11.3

12.7

13.1

11.3

10.1

12.9

11.6

12.1

10.2

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Planted Harvested

Other Spring Wheat Acres

United States

September 30, 2021

Million Acres
41.8

33.7

31.8 32.2

35.1

29.9

34.9

34.1

38.4

35.2

29.1

39.5

43.2

37.1

33.2

37.1

40.5

45.2

46.1

37.7

44.9

47.1 46.7

46.2

47.3

41.0

48.3 48.3 48.6

32.6

26.0

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Other Spring Wheat Yield

United States

September 30, 2021

Bushels per Acre
2021 Other Spring Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

September 30, 2021
0.540 0.534

0.595 0.603

0.532

0.416

0.623

0.561

0.588

0.331

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Other Spring Wheat Production

United States

September 30, 2021

Billion Bushels
0.250

0.300

0.350

0.400

0.450

0.500

0.550

0.600

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate

2021 U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2021
2021 Durum Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 30, 2021

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 880 ↓ 3.3 820 ↓ 8.9 24.0 ↓ 38.5 19,680 ↓ 43.9

Montana 670 ↓ 3.6 635 ↓ 8.0 16.0 ↓ 59.0 10,160 ↓ 62.2

Arizona 5 3 ↑ 6.0 5 2 ↑ 6.1 90.0 ↓ 9.1 4,680 ↓ 3.5

California 2 5 N C 2 0 ↑ 17.6 110.0 ↑ 26.4 2,200 ↑ 48.7

Idaho 7 ↓ 30.0 7 ↓ 22.2 77.0 ↓ 13.5 539 ↓ 32.7

↓ 41.4 ↓ 46.1

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↓ 3.3

1,635 1,534 24.3 37,259

↑ 10.5 ↑ 6.2 ↑ 1.3 ↑ 7.5

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↓ 7.9

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Production
Durum Wheat Acres

United States

September 30, 2021

Million Acres

2.14

1.40 1.41

1.95

2.41

2.31

2.07

1.34

1.69 1.64

2.12

1.34 1.35

1.91

2.36

2.11

1.97

1.18

1.67

1.53

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Planted Harvested
39.7

33.6

35.6

30.5

32.6

27.6

37.0

27.8

30.7

30.0

29.5

33.7

38.0

37.2

29.5

34.1

31.3

44.0

41.2

36.8

38.4

43.3

40.2

44.0 44.0

26.0

39.5

45.8

41.5

24.3

23.0

28.0

33.0

38.0

43.0

48.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Durum Wheat Yield

United States

September 30, 2021

Bushels per Acre
2021 Durum Wheat Yield

Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Year

September 30, 2021
Durum Wheat Production

United States

September 30, 2021

Billion Bushels

0.082

0.058 0.054

0.084

0.104

0.055

0.078

0.054

0.069

0.037

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
0.025

0.030

0.035

0.040

0.045

0.050

0.055

0.060

0.065

0.070

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate

2021 U.S. Durum Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2021
2021 Small Grains

Acreage, Yield, and Production

September 30, 2021

Unit Unit

Barley Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 2.2 ↓ 4.7 ↑ 17.1 ↑ 11.5

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.4 ↓ 12.0 ↓ 21.8 ↓ 31.1

Oats Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 8.4 ↓ 10.0 ↑ 6.8 ↓ 3.8

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 15.3 ↓ 35.6 ↓ 5.8 ↓ 39.4

Rye Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 0.4 ↓ 19.2 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 9.1 ↓ 10.9 ↓ 4.3 ↓ 14.9

2,660

Yield

(Units per Acre)

2,550 650

2,133 294

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

61.3

33.4

Production

(1,000 Units)

117,673

39,836

9,808

1,948 60.4
10.7

28.5

10.1 10.3

17.7

56.7

16.2

35.2

7.2

28.4

10.2

14.6

5.1

11.1

7.0

3.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Barley Durum Wheat Oats Other Spring Wheat

2018 2019 2020 2021

Small Grains

U.S. Percent of Acres Remaining to be Harvested

September 30, 2021

Percent
September 30, 2021

September 2021 All Wheat

Stocks

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Kansas 405,640 ↓ 5.4 26,500 ↓ 17.2 379,140 ↓ 4.5

North Dakota 198,564 ↓ 35.8 99,000 ↓ 56.0 99,564 ↑ 18.3

Oklahoma 127,287 ↓ 4.7 12,000 ↓ 11.1 115,287 ↓ 4.0

Washington 113,751 ↓ 37.5 11,000 ↓ 56.9 102,751 ↓ 34.4

Montana 105,548 ↓ 51.5 71,000 ↓ 58.0 34,548 ↓ 28.9

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

1,779,938 419,190 1,360,748

↓ 17.5 ↓ 40.5 ↓ 6.3

Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

23%

11%

7%

6% 6%

47%

September 1, 2021 All Wheat

Total Stocks By State

Kansas North Dakota Oklahoma

Washington Montana Other

24%

76%

September 1, 2021 All Wheat

Stocks By Position

On-Farm Off-Farm
September 30, 2021

September 2021 All Wheat Stocks

United States

2.86

2.99

2.85

2.62

2.81

3.28

2.92 2.98 3.01

2.86

2.49

2.15 2.12

1.87 1.91

2.10

2.55

2.27

2.39 2.35

2.16

1.78

1.66 1.67

1.47 1.53

1.75

2.08

1.87

2.01

1.84

1.70

1.20 1.23

1.06 1.14

1.37

1.66

1.50 1.59

1.42

1.31

0.743 0.718

0.590

0.752

0.976

1.18 1.10 1.08 1.03

0.845

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22

Billion Bushels

Supply Sep 1 Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1
2021 U.S. All Wheat Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2021

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

September

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
September 30, 2021

September 2021 Corn

Stocks

21%

13%

10%

9% 6%

41%

September 1, 2021 Corn

Total Stocks By State

Iowa Nebraska Illinois Minnesota Indiana Other

32%

68%

September 1, 2021 Corn

Stocks By Position

On-Farm Off-Farm

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Iowa 254,370 ↓ 31.9 55,000 ↓ 60.7 199,370 ↓ 14.5

Nebraska 163,057 ↓ 28.1 47,500 ↓ 45.4 115,557 ↓ 17.3

Illinois 127,820 ↓ 49.2 44,000 ↓ 15.4 83,820 ↓ 58.0

Minnesota 108,103 ↓ 56.3 42,000 ↓ 67.7 66,103 ↓ 43.7

Indiana 73,457 ↓ 18.0 25,000 ↓ 16.7 48,457 ↓ 18.7

1,236,481

↓

394,900 841,581

↓ 47.4 ↓

September 1 September 1 September 1

28.0

Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

September 1 September 1 September 1

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

35.6

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Total On-Farm Off-Farm
September 30, 2021

September 2021 Corn Stocks

United States

14.1

13.4

11.7

14.7

15.4 15.3

16.9 16.9 16.5 15.8 16.0

10.1 9.65

8.03

10.5

11.2 11.2

12.4 12.6

11.9

11.3 11.3

6.52

6.02

5.40

7.01

7.75 7.82

8.62 8.89 8.61

7.95 7.70

3.67

3.15 2.77

3.85

4.45 4.71

5.23 5.30 5.20 5.00

4.11

1.13 0.989 0.821 1.23

1.73 1.74

2.29 2.14 2.22 1.92

1.24

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

Billion Bushels

Supply Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1 Sep 1
2021 U.S. Corn Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2021

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

September

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
2020 U.S. Corn Crop

Balance Sheet

September 30, 2021

Sept. 1, 2020 Beginning Stocks 1,919 1,919 N C

2020 Production 14,182 14,111 ↓ 7 1

Imports 2 5 * 2 5 * N C

Total Supply 16,127 16,056 ↓ 71

Exports 2,745 * 2,745 * N C

Food, Seed, and Industrial 6,470 * 6,470 * N C

Measured Disappearance 9,215 * 9,215 * NC

Ending Stocks 1,187 * 1,236 ↑ 49

Residual 5,725 * 5,604 ↓ 121

* WAOB Forecast - September WASDE Report

Change

(Million Bushels)

Previous

Estimates

(Million Bushels)

September 30

Estimates

(Million Bushels)
September 30, 2021

September 2021 Soybeans

Stocks

16%

14%

11%

8% 9%

42%

September 1, 2021 Soybean

Total Stocks By State

Iowa Illinois Minnesota Nebraska Indiana Other

27%

73%

September 1, 2021 Soybean

Stocks By Position

On-Farm Off-Farm

United States

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

Iowa 41,996 ↓ 58.9 10,500 ↓ 59.6 31,496 ↓ 58.7

Illinois 36,248 ↓ 45.0 10,000 ↓ 23.1 26,248 ↓ 50.4

Minnesota 28,208 ↓ 41.7 8,800 ↓ 48.2 19,408 ↓ 38.1

Nebraska 21,503 ↓ 58.4 8,400 ↓ 42.1 13,103 ↓ 64.7

Indiana 20,717 ↓ 17.0 4,700 ↓ 32.9 16,017 ↓ 10.9

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

(1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu) (1,000 Bu)

256,179 68,100 188,079

↓ 51.2 ↓ 51.8 ↓ 50.9

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Total Stocks

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm
September 30, 2021

September 2021 Soybean Stocks

United States

3.48 3.31 3.21

3.50

4.02 4.12

4.49

4.71 4.87

4.46

4.74

2.28 2.37

1.97

2.15

2.53

2.71

2.90

3.16

3.75

3.25

2.95

1.25 1.37

0.998 0.994

1.33

1.53

1.74

2.11

2.73

2.25

1.56

0.619 0.667

0.435 0.405

0.627

0.872 0.966

1.22

1.78

1.38

0.769

0.215 0.169 0.141 0.092 0.191 0.197 0.302 0.438

0.909

0.525

0.256

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

Billion Bushels

Supply Dec 1 Mar 1 Jun 1 Sep 1
2021 U.S. Soybean Stocks

Industry Expectations vs NASS

September 30, 2021

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

September

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
2020 U.S. Soybean Crop

Balance Sheet

September 30, 2021

Sept. 1, 2020 Beginning Stocks 525 525 N C

2020 Production 4,135 4,216 ↑ 8 1

Imports 2 0 * 2 0 * N C

Total Supply 4,680 4,761 ↑ 81

Crushings 2,140 * 2,140 * N C

Exports 2,260 * 2,260 * N C

Seed 101 * 101 * N C

Measured Disappearance 4,501 * 4,501 * NC

Ending Stocks 175 * 256 ↑ 81

Residual 4 * 4 ↓ <1

* WAOB Forecast - September WASDE Report

Change

(Million Bushels)

Previous

Estimates

(Million Bushels)

September 30

Estimates

(Million Bushels)
September 30, 2021

September 2021

Stocks

Unit

Barley Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↓ 24.7 ↓ 28.7 ↓ 18.4

Durum Wheat Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↓ 33.9 ↓ 51.7 ↓ 5.8

Oats Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↓ 7.1 ↓ 19.3 ↑ 11.0

Safflower Pounds

% Change from Previous Year ↓ 67.6 N/A N/A

Sorghum Bushels

% Change from Previous Year ↓ 32.4 ↓ 80.1 ↓ 27.2

Sunflower Pounds

% Change from Previous Year ↑ 99.6 ↑ 203.0 ↑ 86.0

(D)

588 19,758

68,120 319,587

2,470

20,346

387,707

21,000

32,150

(D)

62,132

57,525

25,908

29,982

September 1 September 1 September 1

Total On-Farm Off-Farm

(1,000 Units) (1,000 Units) (1,000 Units)

135,205

46,908

77,680
Selected Upcoming Reports

September 30, 2021

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September 30, 2021

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