2013 Chicago Data Users Meeting

National Agricultural Statistics Service, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)

October 21, 2013

Introductions and Opening Remarks from agency representatives within USDA

Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS)

Economic Research Service (ERS)

Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)

National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)

World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)

U. S. Census Bureau (Census), submitted written remarks only, no staff present

Questions & Answers

Attendee: I have received a lot of comments from my clients and will share a few. There has 

been a lot of discussion about timing of releases. The views are very bifurcated, with 

no consensus. The lack of an October Crop Production and WASDE was an 

inconvenience, but not the end of the world. Most of the feedback is on the AMS 

prices and mandatory reporting. Will that ever be broken down in the future? This is 

one source of data they are very reliant on.

AMS: Due to the nature of the way mandatory data was reported during the government 

shutdown, the data will be released as a block. Plants who were covered by the law 

could submit their data on a daily basis, but they didn’t have to. Mandatory reporting 

days are defined as days that the plants and USDA are both open for business. This is 

similar to the two working holidays that industry had last year. Some plants submitted

data during the shutdown, while others did not until October 17. Those that waited

until October 17 had combined all their data into one file dated October 17. There is 

no way to distinguish the individual daily data. Many are pushing to get the block out 

there. We want to hear comments. Several have said they want daily or weekly back. 

I don’t know that we can do that since we cannot distinguish daily information. Staff 

are working through the weekend going through the block data. We are putting out 

the block of data today for October 1-16. A priority has been placed on hog and cattle 

purchases and slaughter data. 

NASS: We received 147 comments regarding the timing of releases. The noon releases 

allows equal access of information to the west coast during working hours and market 

liquidity.

Attendee: About blue sheets formulas, no one is willing to go back to re-invoice to October 15. 

What is being done is reasonable.

Attendee: What kind of timing for wholesale pork forward prices and when will a 

comprehensive report be available to the public?

AMS: I do not have the information, and am not sure where we are at on that.

Attendee: By the end of year?

AMS: The forward price and export pork reports will be published in January 2014.
Attendee: A question, but first a comment about the release time and access to information. I

can’t figure out why it takes 2 seconds or more. There is a need to reevaluate how the 

data is released to the press. Whether it is 6 am or 2 pm it is the time to the public, 

however it is not equal access. With the harvest going on the last two weeks and 

samples being lost, discuss November handling and what you are doing different.

NASS: The shutdown caught us off guard. Objective yield samples for all commodities (corn, 

soybeans, and cotton) for October that were sent to the lab sat at UPS until the 17th. 

Some of the samples are early harvest corn samples in dent stage. These samples have 

high moisture, imagine them sitting in plastics bags for 17 days. Issues like these are 

being working through. Enumerators are instructed to know when the farmer is going 

to harvest and go out before the next survey period and collect data. This final data 

collection before harvest is then sent to the lab. We don’t have a good handle of how 

much is missing. How much is still standing in northern of Illinois, Minnesota, and 

South Dakota? That is and will be the issue. The objective yield samples for 

soybeans, 300 or a few less, which were in the lab for October 1, are in surprisingly in 

good shape. It is difficult to glean information about the final harvest of soybeans 

since enumerators were not working October 1 – 17 and soybean material is missing. 

We don’t know where the samples are missing. Cotton is also included in missing 

samples due to harvest. For the October farmer survey about 50% of contacts were 

made the evenings of the 27th, 28th, and 30th. Data collection was scheduled for the 

rest of the week. We need all hands are on deck for the best response rate possible for 

November. This all makes December even more critical. This is not fun, but it is the 

business we are in. 

Attendee: Any thoughts about canola and oilseeds and other crop that were supposed to be in 

the October Crop Production?

NASS: We are discussing a November 1 citrus estimate. The hay estimate is gone. Oilseeds 

will not have a forecast until the final December estimate published in the January 10 

release.

WAOB: As to the two second issue, there is not currently a solution to the problem. Due to the 

sensitivity of the data we do not preload the data anywhere. I cannot imagine WAOB 

or NASS having that out of our control. The WAOB and NASS clocks are 

synchronized to the National Institute of Standards and Technology clock. As soon as 

the time reaches noon then the data automatically goes from Washington, DC to 

Kansas City. Releasing directly from Washington is easier said than done due to the 

computer infrastructure in DC. 

Attendee: Release to both the press and public at the same time.

WAOB: With prior NASS approval, NASS permits accredited press to enter the lockup area to 

prepare summary reports. The press cannot release anything until NASS restores 

communications links. USDA and press lines are opened at the same time.

NASS: The press at Lockup release that data at the same time we release the data to the 

public. The switches for NASS, WAOB, and the press are flipped at the same time.

Attendee: It appears that the data flow is different for the press and USDA website.

Attendee: You can’t pull the data off the USDA website before press has it is published.
NASS: The challenge is that the USDA puts out a comprehensive report on the website. We 

don’t know which parts that data user wants, so we publish all. The press publishes a 

summary.

WAOB: The press are inside of Lockup do not have access outside. They condense and put out 

their report from inside Lockup. No one can get a story out before outside access is 

restored to everyone at the same time. They can’t do anything with their report until 

noon.

Attendee: Thanks from one user who has had a problem with the PDFs for addressing the 

problem. ERS analyzes trading changes around the stocks report. Academics research 

basically looking such variation from report to report. Can you share any of your 

results?

ERS: At this point the study does not have results to share, at least not yet.

Attendee: In regards to trying to level the playing field in the nanoseconds. Nanoseconds are 

critical in market price response. Having been in Lockup and in the press room, I 

understand the security measures. I respect the need for the media to have access to 

the numbers and develop stories et cetera. Due to synchronization you have no 

control over when that report is released. It takes at least 2 seconds to transfer data to 

the server in Kansas City. I am certain that it is technically doable, without questions, 

that the reports from the press room not be released until the USDA data hits the

USDA web server. This could be coordinated to level the playing field. Perhaps 

discussions on this could start informally for now and moved up to formally later. 

This issue is not one that is not going to go away.

Attendee: This issue is not your problem. It is a political problem. It is not a problem that you 

need to resolve. The politicians need to mandate a 10 minute trading hold. It needs to 

be put back the trading. 

WAOB: CFTC has no authority to regulate private sector release times.

Attendee: This needs to be done legislatively.

Attendee: Will the October 1-16 block data be an average for the whole period, for beef and 

pork prices?

AMS: That is what it would look like, a wider date range that is specified at the top of the 

report. At this time there is no intention to break it out by day.

Attendee: How comprehensive are the weekly export reports for beef and pork?

FAS: Pork is a new reporting commodity. The managers in charge of the program are 

constantly adding new reporting companies. We are aware of some differences 

between what has been reported for exports by Census and Export Sales. We continue 

to work closely with Census and others to ensure that the Export Sales Report 

accurately reflects current sales and exports of reportable commodities.

Attendee: For broilers and turkeys, how are you going to put out a monthly price? Will it be an 

average?
AMS: Reporting is voluntary, so we won’t be able to go back and ask what did you buy and 

sell on that day. A monthly average is not being discussed.

Attendee: How can the Canadians publish a hogs and pigs death loss? NASS is collecting data on 

hog and pig death, why are they not publishing?

NASS: At this point in time we are not ready nor do we have plans to publish death loss in the 

quarterly report. The death loss question has a lower response rate than other items 

that we publish. In order to be able to publish a death loss value on a quarterly basis 

we would need to improve the response rate to the question. This may require changes

to the survey to increase response to this question or encouraging respondents to reply 

better to the current question. It is our weakest number from the survey; however, it is 

used in the balance sheet during the estimation process. Collecting the data is difficult. 

Should we ask death loss at all stages? Do we collect it by weight groups or by age 

groups? Pigs are not in the same position in every quarter to figure out where the death 

loss occurred. Not all producers keep records the same way and may not be able to 

provide the data at each stage.

Attendee: Don’t assume the Canadian number is based on anything. I wonder about any number 

they put out. Eventually we need to know how many died. I would like to know for the 

last 6 months. Where does PDI come from if we don’t have a “born alive” number? 

NASS: There are many sources of data that go into the PDI. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs 

survey does provide information for the death loss number in the PDI publication.

Attendee: A question to follow up about the hog and pigs survey. The sample size gets smaller 

every year. Can you talk about more about how this affects the data or the results 

every quarter? The latest quarterly report is the hot topic. Have you noticed anything 

from the September 1 release to slaughter numbers? Can you reflect on the cattle on 

feed publication’s two week delay? Do you see anything that could affect the data or

mechanics, or people remembering the data from October 1? Such as the placement of 

heifers and steers, any affect on those numbers?

NASS: All reports missed due to the furlough will be published by October 31st to avoid

internal system problems. The same day we came back from the shutdown, by close of 

business, the updated release schedule was decided and announced. Livestock will get 

everything published by the 31 of October. Many of our systems have problems 

rolling over to the next month. We stretched our data collection and analysis as far as

possible. Why are we publishing? A hole in the data series is not good and it is there 

forever impacting month to month and year to year comparisons. Logistically some 

questionnaires were already mailed out and were coming back while we were on 

furlough just like the objective yield samples that was mentioned earlier. Some states 

started calling the day before the first, so we had a day’s worth of calling and some 

questionnaires in. At this point we have no idea how much was in by the first of 

October. Last Friday night we started calling and will continue through the end of this 

week to ask producers what they had on the first of the month. There may be some 

memory bias. Bigger feedlots are computerized; with a push of a button office staff

can retrieve information from the first of October. This is the same for poultry. There 

may be some memory bias, but throughout the month there were no drastic weather 

conditions. Well, there may have been a little weather of interest in the north. Will the 
data be perfect? Maybe not, but it will be the best we can do. The publication of the 

reports will make it possible to compare from month to month or year to year. For 

weekly broilers, most operations have computer systems that have the data. We will 

publish the missed weeks for broilers on October 23.

NASS: There is a difference between livestock and crops. Yields and condition are as of that 

point of time. Livestock reports are based on inventory, which is recorded by

producers in their systems. This is why we cancelled the Crop Production report. The 

livestock inventory has salvageable data using computerized books to get the 

information.

Attendee: The shutdown may resurface in January. What have we learned, especially about AMS

pricing, that we can apply next time to avoid some of these pitfalls?

AMS: I do know that while I was on furlough, all of market news was on furlough. Other 

federal employees may not have been that were considered essential. There was a 

proposal to make mandatory price reporting essential that ran into a wall, it did not 

happen. We would like to make another run, however we are not sure if it will be 

successful. We are service oriented, but we were not allowed to provide more 

information about the shutdown. On October 1 the only thing we were allowed to do 

was to shut down. This was out of our control. There were calls that market news is 

what everyone is missing. No market news data for 16 days is a kind of Petri dish 

experiment. Market news was not there; hopefully this resonated as to why this service 

was created 100 years ago.

Attendee: On August 1

st each agency had to submit a protocol of what they were going to do.

NASS: The shutdown caused the loss of these reports. We have to go by OPM rules. They

instructed us to come in to shutdown computer systems only. It is illegal for us to 

expend funds not approved by Congress. We did not have any latitude on this issue.

Attendee: What has happened to the hogs these last 7 weeks? The hogs slaughtered numbers 

don’t match up with the June or September reports. Do you have a good idea what has 

happened?

Attendee: With a plus or minus 1% growth rate that extended into October. Someone has to be 

asking what happened.

NASS: We are not pleased with what we are seeing. We have not changed anything in the 

survey. Farmers don’t respond like they did ten years ago. A revision at that time of 

30,000 head was a normal. We are not happy with any large revision that has been 

made in recent years. Since the furlough, we have been trying hard to retrieve the first 

3 weeks slaughter data for October. There are a few dailies at 103% of a year ago. 

Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PED) has become a problem. We don’t think the June 

survey picked up the full impact of PED. Declining sample sizes don’t explain the 

entire issue, but they do contribute. We are trying to get back on track for December, 

however we don’t have a good answer at this time about the difference between the 

reports and what slaughter is showing.

Attendee: I have two questions. First, back to the October acreage revisions from FSA. Will 

these be included in the November Crop Production?
NASS: In the November Crop Production we will incorporate the FSA data. FSA will release 

three business days after the WASDE report. We will release whatever we have 

received from FSA for October and November. One reason for the delay was the 

change to an August 1 sign up. As of last Friday, we have data as of early in month, 

just before the shut down. They are trying to catch up. As of the end of October, all 

crops will be using the latest set of data.

Attendee: Secondly, other countries still published in October. We did not in October, how will 

this change affect operations at WASDE?

WASDE: We will go back to normal operations. There was no October WASDE report because 

we can’t prepare a global assessment without updated information from NASS. NASS 

numbers are critical inputs to our balance sheets. All updates, both domestic and 

foreign, since the September report will be reflected in the November WASDE report. 

Attendee: What would it take to get price reporting mandatory? What do we need to ask 

Congress? What hurdle do we need to jump?

WASDE: We cannot initiate a request to the Congress for mandatory price reporting legislation. 

You must initiate the process.

Attendee: Is there a specific hurdle that you were not able to overcome that we can address?

WASDE: We serve the public. Mandatory reporting requires legislation by the Congress. 

Normally, such legislation reflects a public need including statements from report 

users and/or industry representatives that current reporting is inadequate for their 

needs. Again, it is your responsibility to express your needs to the Congress.

Attendee: Is it true that 8% of the hogs and pigs reports represent a large part of the data 

submitted? How does the survey response total compare to the estimate? Can I use the 

mean square error (MSE) on the back of the report to calculate this value?

NASS: If you look only at the sum of the reported data, then a small portion of the sample 

represents the majority of the data. Keep in mind that small operations have large 

weights that expand their values. Also, quarterly survey data for hogs and pigs are 

collected on an ownership basis. There are a relatively few number of owners 

controlling a large portion of the inventory. For operations of a certain size, a bounded 

stratum can account for them. For large unbounded stratum, which about half of the 

hogs or more fall into, the data must be accounted for by estimation. NASS does 

publish a Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Methodology and Quality Measures report to 

provide data users with additional methodology information not provided in the 

regular quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. This report can be found at: 

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Methodology_and_Data_Quality/index.asp

Attendee: Would you elaborate on estimation procedure?

NASS: Each estimate is on a per case basis and is based on previous reports.

Attendee: What hurdle can we, as CME, jump to help settle the crying out for data such as the 

October hogs price data? Maybe having deep pockets can help.

AMS: Thanks for comment.

Attendee: We are delighted to get milk reports back. How about cattle? We just want one back.

NASS: It is an interesting request. Given sequestration we will try to do what we can. We are 

trying to maintain the principal commodities of cattle on feed and hogs. Milk is not a 
principal indicator and neither is cattle. I wish you were in my spot to hear the 

passionate pleas from the different commodities such as fruits or hops. Some groups 

are not talking to me because their commodity was cut. This is a tough situation.

Attendee: As a researcher and user of data, would you explain why on October first you went

dark on your websites? We knew we weren’t going get any new data, but as a 

researcher, the numbers outside of AMS cash price history we were not able to access. 

Did the website have to be shutdown?

NASS: During discussions it was determined that it takes federal resources to keep those 

systems running. We were not allowed to incur any financial obligations during the 

shutdown, such as resources to keep the websites running.

Attendee: Were they completely shut down?

ERS: At ERS we had to shut the website down completely.

Attendee: Why does it take so long to report on the back log of export data from the shutdown?

FAS: The Export Sales database is an automated system. The system design requires a 

report to be generated for each week. Once the weekly report is generated the database 

is reset to receive data for the next week. No weeks may be skipped. Given the 

limitations of the design of the system, the schedule we’ve developed represents the 

best approach to getting caught up and back on schedule following the shutdown.

Attendee: Have you given respondents a five day window to enter data?

FAS: A notice has gone out to the reporters providing an opportunity to report any data they 

were not able to report during this period.

Attendee: The data will not be split out by the week even though reported weekly?

FAS: Due to the shutdown many were not able to report, except for those that faxed their

data. Much of the data reported was aggregated. The export sales report for the 

shutdown period will be aggregated.

Attendee: What is the updated schedule for release of Census data in GATS?

FAS: August data will be available October 24th, September on November 14th.

Attendee: The FAS Export Sales numbers have discrepancies. Not so much on the pork side with 

the volume of data, but the beef side has a major discrepancy in the weekly numbers. 

Exports going out validated showing a decrease. When does the data become so far off 

that you are not capturing the trend?

FAS: I will take your concern back. I know that the staff is aware of this and are working to 

understand why these differences are occurring and to ensure that the Export Sales 

data is as complete as possible. They routinely work closely with Census to ensure that 

the Export Sales data accurately reflects U.S. exports of reportable commodities.

Attendee: We may have an issue on the census side of the FAS numbers. We buy that the census 

is official, but there may be an issue with it. 

FAS: FAS works with Census closely to resolve issues. This is an ongoing process and we 

try to rectify any issues as quickly as possible.
Attendee: You mentioned a new website; will the two databases on GAIN be combined? Will we 

get email updates whenever new reports are released?

FAS: The two databases will not be combined. Subscription service went away with the new 

GAIN system. There are no plans to bring it back. The search feature is a convenient 

way to look for new information.

Attendee: WAOB, what are your thoughts on the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture crop 

estimation?

WASDE: We recognize that Argentine data may not be reliable and, frequently, we do not 

accept Ministry numbers. We rely heavily on information provided by the FAS post

especially when we cannot reconcile information from the Argentine Ministry with 

other indications we have. For example, Argentine wheat milling and trade data may 

not match what we think with respect to production and available supplies. We share 

your concerns.

Attendee: A question about the US number of beef slaughter from dairy and beef. Is it possible 

for import from Canada to be split?

NASS: We are using FSIS data for the NASS slaughter report the way it is collected. The 

main goal of FSIS is to track diseases and that the meat is healthy, more than to keep 

tabs for inventory reasons. We can’t specify to them to keep track of slaughter a 

different way.

Attendee: What about beef cows slaughtered from Canada?

WAOB: APHIS provides weekly trade data, but, similar to FSIS, APHIS collects data for 

animal health reasons, not for inventory. APHIS does not provide information on 

whether the animals are dairy or beef cattle.

Attendee: I am wondering if you have ever considered one website with whatever format to pull

together the different weekly, daily, et cetera releases? NASS uses text, PDF, and csv 

formats. Mann Library uses zip, PDF, and text. WAOB chiefly uses xml, Excel, and

PDF. I know that it is more direct for me to take the WASDE Office of the Chief 

Economist report as I can strip it quicker than others. Mann Library is so big that it

weighs the website down. Leveling the playing field is what people are concerned 

with. Having one platform with a one type of format is one way would help with this. I 

don’t know which format to choose; PDF is slower, Excel is live and rolling. I have 

heard of server issues for PDF versions. Whatever format is chosen, consolidation is 

possible.

NASS: Each agency has a separate appropriation so currently each agency has a separate site. 

We can get together and discuss how to serve the public better. Thank you for this 

excellent question.

Attendee: I hate to beat to this issue to death, but if the Statue of Liberty could stay open from 

private funds why not blue sheets?

AMS: No one approached us about this and the Department would not solicit for funds. 

Attendee: New York City offered, but what if AMI or CME came to you to produce reports in 

the furlough, would you do it?

NASS: That is a complicated issue. A reimbursable agreement would have to be established.

Attendee: New York City employees were working; it wasn’t the federal employees in the parks.
NASS: We would be supportive, if compensated, and allowed. Our staff would be more than 

happy to work.

Attendee: For catfish, industry was told they would have to pay $100,000-$200,000 to have 

NASS resume the reports. Why not the same offer for other reports?

NASS: NASS has cooperative agreements with others to be reimbursed for reports, but that

was not the case during the shutdown. It happened so fast. Catfish was a process, 

where we said this is what it would take. This was not completed in one day or a two 

or three week period. It takes time.

Attendee: This question is on November Crop Production. On the objective yield side you said 

you may discover some holes, how would you convey this? Would it be in the 

statistics? How would this be communicated?

NASS: Staff trying to determine how to best communicate whether it is dashed out or a 

footnote. Until we know more, we don’t know how we will communicate.

Attendee: If you do have holes, would you communicate them?

NASS: Until we know what we have, we can’t really say.

Attendee: There are three criteria for staff to be considered essential: national security, safety of 

life or property, protection of human health. Pork prices form AMS were not included 

in 2011 as essentials services, so we cannot make them essential now. Conversations 

last week were to look at those criteria to determine what is essential. AMS prices 

were not able to be brought back up.