Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

November 10, 2020
Data Sources

November 10, 2020

November 2020 Ag Yield Sample Sizes

Operator Reported

Survey

Field Objective Yield

Survey Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through

(Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt September 28

Ag Yield Sample Size = 7,791 October 30 - November 5

Sample Size = 3,930 October 24 - November 1
United States Corn Progress

Percent Harvested

November 10, 2020

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 12/6

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 2020 Corn

Acreage, Yield, and Production

November 10, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Iowa 13,700 ↑ 1.5 12,700 ↓ 2.7 184 ↓ 7.1 2,336,800 ↓ 9.6

Illinois 11,400 ↑ 8.6 11,200 ↑ 9.8 195 ↑ 7.7 2,184,000 ↑ 18.3

Nebraska 10,200 ↑ 1.0 9,830 ↑ 0.2 185 ↑ 1.6 1,818,550 ↑ 1.9

Minnesota 8,000 ↑ 2.6 7,550 ↑ 4.1 202 ↑ 16.8 1,525,100 ↑ 21.6

Indiana 5,400 ↑ 8.0 5,250 ↑ 8.9 189 ↑ 11.8 992,250 ↑ 21.8

Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

N C

1.5 ↑ 5.0 ↑ 6.5

N C ↓ 1.5 ↓ 1.5

Planted Harvested Yield Production

90,978 82,527 175.8 14,506,795

↑ ↑

Top 5 States - By Production

1.4

Planted Harvested Yield

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
108.6

131.5

100.7

138.6

113.5

127.1126.7

134.4133.8

136.9138.2

129.3

142.2

160.3

147.9149.1150.7

153.3

164.4

152.6

146.8

123.1

158.1

171.0

168.4

174.6

176.6176.4

167.5

175.8

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

November 2020 Corn Yield

United States

November 10, 2020

Bushels per Acre
November 2020 Corn Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

November 10, 2020
November 2020 Corn

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

November 10, 2020
November 2020 Corn Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

November 10, 2020

Percent

7 0

9 6

7 3

9 6

5 1

9 6

8 0

9 6

2 9

9 4

6 8

9 6

1 6 1 7

4 1

1 3

4 9

1

2 5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mature Dent
November 2020 Corn Objective Yield

Ears per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region

November 10, 2020

Ears per Acre Bushels per Acre

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

27,000

27,500

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Ears per Acre Yield
12.3

10.8

13.8 14.2

13.6

15.1

14.6 14.3

13.6

14.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

November 2020 Corn Production

United States

November 10, 2020

Billion Bushels
2020 U.S. Corn Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

November 10, 2020

14.4

14.6

14.8

15.0

15.2

15.4

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Soybean Progress

Percent Harvested

November 10, 2020

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 2020 Soybeans

Acreage, Yield, and Production

November 10, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Illinois 10,300 ↑ 3.5 10,250 ↑ 4.0 58.0 ↑ 7.4 594,500 ↑ 11.7

Iowa 9,400 ↑ 2.2 9,320 ↑ 2.2 54.0 ↓ 1.8 503,280 ↑ 0.3

Minnesota 7,400 ↑ 8.0 7,330 ↑ 8.3 51.0 ↑ 15.9 373,830 ↑ 25.5

Indiana 5,700 ↑ 5.6 5,680 ↑ 6.0 58.0 ↑ 13.7 329,440 ↑ 20.5

Nebraska 5,200 ↑ 6.1 5,150 ↑ 6.4 58.0 ↓ 0.9 298,700 ↑ 5.5

↑ 7.0 ↑ 17.4

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 9.2

N C N C ↓ 2.3 ↓ 2.3

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 9.8

83,105 82,289 50.7 4,170,262

Planted Harvested Yield Production
34.2

37.6

32.6

41.4

35.3

37.6

38.9 38.9

36.6

38.1

39.6

38.0

33.9

42.2

43.1 42.9

41.7

39.7

44.0 43.5

42.0

40.0

44.0

47.5 48.0

51.9

49.3

50.6

47.4

50.7

29

34

39

44

49

54

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

November 2020 Soybean Yield

United States

November 10, 2020

Bushels per Acre
November 2020 Soybean Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

November 10, 2020
November 2020 Soybeans

NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield

November 10, 2020
November 2020 Soybean Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

November 10, 2020

Percent

5 4

9 5

5 3

9 3

4 9

9 3

5 7

9 3

2 5

9 1

6 4

9 4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

October

November

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mature
November 2020 Soybean Objective Yield

Pods per 18 Square Feet and Yield for 11 State Region

November 10, 2020

Pods per 18 Square Feet Bushels per Acre

35

40

45

50

55

60

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

September

October

November

Final

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pods per 18 Square Feet Yield
November 2020 Soybean Production

United States

November 10, 2020

Billion Bushels

3.10 3.04

3.36

3.93 3.93

4.30 4.41 4.43

3.55

4.17

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 U.S. Soybean Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

November 10, 2020

4.10

4.15

4.20

4.25

4.30

4.35

4.40

4.45

4.50

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Cotton Progress

Percent Harvested

November 10, 2020

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 12/6

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 2020 Cotton

Acreage, Yield, and Production

November 10, 2020

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

Texas 6,836 ↓ 3.2 3,880 ↓ 26.2 762 ↑ 31.8 6,157 ↓ 2.8

Georgia 1,200 ↓ 14.3 1,190 ↓ 13.8 968 ↑ 1.6 2,400 ↓ 12.4

Mississippi 530 ↓ 25.4 525 ↓ 25.0 1,198 ↑ 7.7 1,310 ↓ 19.2

Arkansas 525 ↓ 15.3 520 ↓ 14.8 1,200 ↑ 1.3 1,300 ↓ 13.7

Alabama 450 ↓ 16.7 445 ↓ 16.4 890 ↓ 4.1 825 ↓ 19.7

Top 5 States - By Production

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

↓ 22.5 ↑ 10.7 ↓ 14.2

N C N C ↑ 0.2

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)

12,116 9,005 911 17,092

↑ 0.3

↓ 11.8

Planted Harvested Yield Production
652

700

606

708

537

705

673

625

607

632

705

665

730

855

831

814

879

813

776

812

790

892

822

838

766

867

905

882

823

911

480

530

580

630

680

730

780

830

880

930

980

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

November 2020 Cotton Yield

United States

November 10, 2020

Pounds per Acre
November 2020 Cotton Yield

Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Month

November 10, 2020
November 2020 Cotton Production

United States

November 10, 2020

Million Bales

15.6

17.3

12.9

16.3

12.9

17.2

20.9

18.4

19.9

17.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 10, 2020

November 2020 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

Unit Unit

Peanuts Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 0.8 ↓ 0.8

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 16.2 ↑ 16.8 ↑ 4.0 ↑ 21.5

Potatoes Cwt Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 0.2 ↑ 0.6 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 4.2 ↓ 2.3 ↑ 0.2 ↓ 2.1

Rice Lb Cwt

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 0.1 ↓ 0.1

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 19.6 ↑ 21.0 ↑ 1.2 ↑ 22.4

Sorghum Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↑ 0.1 ↑ <0.1

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 10.0 ↑ 7.0 ↑ 1.6 ↑ 8.6

Sugarbeets Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C ↓ 5.1 ↓ 5.2

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.9 ↑ 17.3 ↑ 1.4 ↑ 18.7

Sugarcane Ton Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ <0.1 ↓ 1.1 ↓ 0.9

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 2.1 ↑ 3.4 ↑ 5.8

1,165 1,149

N/A 933

1,665

Yield

(Units per Acre)

33,958

33,782

923 916

3,037 2,991

5,790 5,000

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

454

7,560

74.2

29.6

36.2

370,770

Production

(1,000 Units)

6,643,320

415,481

226,121

1,623 4,093
Selected Upcoming Reports

November 10, 2020

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

November 20 Cattle on Feed

November 24 Cotton Ginnings

November 30 Agricultural Prices

Cotton System

Fats and Oils

Grain Crushings

Census of Horticulture

Floriculture Crops

Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

December 1

December 10

December 8
#StatChat

November 10, 2020
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-2127

(800) 727-9540

nass@usda.gov