July Crop Production

Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

July 12, 2023
Data Sources

July 12, 2023

Operator Reported

Survey

Field

Survey

Ag Yield Sample Size = 5,065 June 29 - July 7

Objective Yield Sample Size = 1,155 June 24 - July 1

Barley, Oats, Wheat

Florida Citrus

Utilization Florida Citrus Administrative Committee

Data Quantity of Fruit Packed or Processed
July 2023 Ag Yield Survey

Sample Sizes

July 12, 2023
U.S. Drought Monitor

July 12, 2023
United States Winter Wheat Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

July 12, 2023

25

35

45

55

65

75

10/23 10/30 11/6 11/13 11/20 11/27 4/2 4/9 4/1 6 4/2 3 4/3 0 5/7 5/1 4 5/2 1 5/2 8 6/4 6/1 1 6/1 8 6/2 5 7/2

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Percent
United States Winter Wheat Progress

Percent Harvested

July 12, 2023

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

6/0 4 6/1 1 6/1 8 6/2 5 7/0 2 7/0 9 7/1 6 7/2 3 7/3 0 8/0 6 8/1 3 8/2 0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
July 2023 Winter Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

July 12, 2023

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

Kansas 8,100 ↑ 11.0 6,500 ↓ 1.5 32.0 ↓ 13.5 208,000 ↓ 14.8

Washington 1,800 ↓ 2.7 1,740 ↓ 3.3 57.0 ↓ 16.2 99,180 ↓ 19.0

Montana 1,900 ↓ 7.3 1,650 ↓ 8.3 49.0 ↑ 48.5 80,850 ↑ 36.1

Oklahoma 4,600 ↑ 7.0 2,600 ↑ 6.1 27.0 ↓ 3.6 70,200 ↑ 2.3

Colorado 2,300 ↑ 17.9 1,800 ↑ 25.9 38.0 ↑ 52.0 68,400 ↑ 91.3

↓ 0.2 ↑ 9.3

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 11.2

37,005 25,700 46.9 1,206,435

N C N C ↑ 4.5 ↑ 6.2

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↑ 9.6

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Production

% Change from Previous Estimate represents change from Acreage report for Planted & Harvested Acres

and change from June Crop Production report for Yield & Production.
Winter Wheat Yield

United States

July 12, 2023 40.2

37.7

37.1

44.6

46.9

47.8

44.6

43.4

38.2

46.7

43.5

44.3

41.6 41.7

47.1

44.0

46.5 46.1

47.1 47.3

42.6 42.5

55.3

50.2

47.9

53.6

50.9

50.2

47.0 46.9

32.0

37.0

42.0

47.0

52.0

57.0

62.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Bushels per Acre
July 2023 Winter Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month

July 12, 2023
July 2023 Winter Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

July 12, 2023
Winter Wheat Production

United States

July 12, 2023

1.38 1.37

1.67

1.27

1.18

1.32

1.17

1.28

1.10

1.21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Billion Bushels
18

69

93

8

50

89

14

64

92

7

64

97

14

64

91

9

52

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 June July

August June JulyAugust June JulyAugust June JulyAugust June JulyAugust June JulyAugust

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Mature

July 2023 Winter Wheat Objective Yield

Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

July 12, 2023

Percent
35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46 June July

August Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final June JulyAugust Final

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Heads per Square Foot Yield

July 2023 Winter Wheat Objective Yield

Heads per Square Foot and Yield for 10 State Region

July 12, 2023

Heads per Square Foot Bushels per Acre
July 2023 Winter Wheat Production

United States by Class

July 12, 2023

Unit

Hard Red Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 9.9

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 8.7

Soft Red Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 5.1

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 25.5

White Winter Wheat Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 1.1

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.4

Production

(1,000 Units)

577,215

422,275

206,945

739

830

1,082

750

662

845

659

750

531

577

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million Bushels

Hard Red Winter Wheat Production

United States

455

359 345

293 286

240

266

361

337

422

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million Bushels

Soft Red Winter Wheat Production

United States

184 185

245

227 236 232

246

167

236

207

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million Bushels

White Winter Wheat Production

United States
2023 U.S. Winter Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

July 12, 2023

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

5/2 8 6/0 4 6/1 1 6/1 8 6/2 5 7/0 2 7/0 9 7/1 6 7/2 3 7/3 0 8/0 6 8/1 3 8/2 0 8/2 7 9/0 3

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

United States Other Spring Wheat Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

July 12, 2023

Percent
July 2023 Other Spring Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

July 12, 2023

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 5,600 ↑ 5.7 5,430 ↑ 3.2 47.0 ↓ 6.0 255,210 ↓ 3.0

Montana 2,800 ↑ 3.7 2,550 ↑ 4.5 34.0 ↑ 36.0 86,700 ↑ 42.1

Minnesota 1,140 ↓ 8.8 1,100 ↓ 9.1 54.0 ↓ 11.5 59,400 ↓ 19.5

Idaho 400 ↑ 5.3 375 ↑ 4.2 84.0 ↑ 3.7 31,500 ↑ 8.0

South Dakota 750 ↑ 2.7 700 N C 34.0 ↓ 29.2 23,800 ↓ 29.2

N C N/A

Planted Harvested Yield Production

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY

N C

1.5 ↓ 2.2 ↓ 0.7

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↑ 2.8 ↑

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

11,140 10,595 45.2 478,610

N/A

Top 5 States - By Production
31.8 32.2

35.1

29.9

34.9

34.1

38.4

35.2

29.1

39.5

43.2

37.1

33.2

37.1

40.5

45.2

46.1

37.7

44.9

47.1 46.7

46.2

47.3

41.0

48.3 48.3 48.6

32.6

46.2

45.2

26.0

31.0

36.0

41.0

46.0

51.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Other Spring Wheat Yield

United States

July 12, 2023

Bushels per Acre
July 2023 Other Spring Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

July 12, 2023
0.595 0.603

0.532

0.416

0.623

0.561

0.588

0.331

0.482 0.479

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Other Spring Wheat Production

United States

July 12, 2023

Billion Bushels
2023 U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

July 12, 2023

0.430

0.440

0.450

0.460

0.470

0.480

0.490

0.500

0.510

0.520

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

5/2 1 5/2 8 6/0 4 6/1 1 6/1 8 6/2 5 7/0 2 7/0 9 7/1 6 7/2 3 7/3 0 8/0 6 8/1 3 8/2 0 8/2 7 9/0 3 9/1 0 9/1 7

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

North Dakota Durum Wheat Condition

Percent Rated Good to Excellent

July 12, 2023

Percent
July 2023 Durum Wheat

Acreage, Yield, and Production

July 12, 2023

United States

% Change from

Previous Estimate

% Change from

Previous Season

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

North Dakota 750 ↓ 5.1 730 ↓ 6.4 34.0 ↓ 15.0 24,820 ↓ 20.4

Montana 650 ↓ 8.5 620 ↓ 8.1 34.0 ↑ 21.4 21,080 ↑ 11.5

Arizona 5 0 ↓ 41.2 4 9 ↓ 41.7 108.0 ↓ 5.3 5,292 ↓ 44.7

California 2 5 ↓ 37.5 2 0 ↓ 42.9 114.0 ↑ 3.6 2,280 ↓ 40.8

Idaho 8 ↑ 14.3 8 ↑ 14.3 70.0 ↑ 7.7 560 ↑ 23.1

↓ 6.4 ↓ 15.5

Planted Harvested Yield Production

↓ 9.1

1,483 1,427 37.9 54,032

N C N C N/A N/A

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Planted Harvested Yield Production

(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)

↓ 9.7

% ∆ PY % ∆ PY

Top 5 States - By Production
35.6

30.5

32.6

27.6

37.0

27.8

30.7

30.0

29.5

33.7

38.0

37.2

29.5

34.1

31.3

44.0

41.2

36.8

38.4

43.3

40.2

44.0 44.0

26.0

39.5

45.8

41.5

24.7

40.5

37.9

23.0

28.0

33.0

38.0

43.0

48.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Durum Wheat Yield

United States

July 12, 2023

Bushels per Acre
July 2023 Durum Wheat Yield

Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year

July 12, 2023
0.054

0.084

0.104

0.055

0.078

0.054

0.069

0.038

0.064

0.054

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Durum Wheat Production

United States

July 12, 2023

Billion Bushels
2023 U.S. Durum Wheat Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

July 12, 2023

0.050

0.055

0.060

0.065

0.070

0.075

July August Final

Billion Bushels

Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
July 2023 Field Crops

Acreage, Yield, and Production

July 12, 2023

Unit Unit

Barley Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 14.1 ↑ 3.9 ↓ 2.2 ↑ 1.7

Oats Bu Bu

% Change from Previous Estimate N C N C N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.8 ↓ 10.8 ↓ 3.1 ↓ 13.5

Tobacco, Flue-Cured Lb Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 0.1 N/A N/A

% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 4.0 ↓ 1.9 ↓ 5.8

3,359

Yield

(Units per Acre)

2,508 794

N/A 134

Harvested

(1,000 Acres)

Planted

(1,000 Acres)

62.8

2,122

Production

(1,000 Units)

177,225

49,883

284,940

2,527 70.1
July 2023 Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts

Production

July 12, 2023

Unit

Almonds Lb

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 4.0

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 1.4

Apricots Ton

% Change from Previous Estimate N/A

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 9.3

Production

(1,000 Units)

2,600,000

32.4

1.87 1.90

2.14

2.27 2.28

2.56

3.12

2.93

2.57 2.60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Billion Pounds

Almond Production

United States

64.9

45.7

64.1

45.7

39.6

48.0

31.2

40.0

29.6

32.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Thousand Tons

Apricot Production

United States
July 12, 2023

July 2023 Citrus

Utilized Production

All Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 1.4

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 26.4

Non-Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.3

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 14.7

Valencia Oranges

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 3.9

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 44.6

Grapefruit

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 2.1

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 10.7

Lemons

% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 13.4

% Change from Previous Season ↓ 19.1

Tangerines

% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 4.6

% Change from Previous Season ↑ 22.7

Production

(1,000 Tons)

903

2,522

1,781

741

334

856

9.37 9.03 8.73

7.70

6.08

8.14 7.85

6.91

5.59

4.62

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million Tons

All Citrus Production

United States

6.77

6.35

6.09

5.09

3.88

5.43 5.25

4.39

3.43

2.52

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million Tons

All Orange Production

United States
Selected Upcoming Reports

July 12, 2023

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php

Cattle

Cattle on Feed

Agricultural Prices

Farm Production Expenditures

Cotton System

Fats & Oils

Flour Milling

Grain Crushings

Cash Rents - State

Land Values

Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

July 21

August 4

July 28

August 1

August 11
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July 12, 2023
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