Hogs & Pigs Inventory

March 25, 2016

Executive Briefing

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview

December Hogs & Pigs

Data Collection Period February 29 – March 15

Sample Size 8,147

Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview

Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter

sows farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

March 25, 2016
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item

Initial

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Previous 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current

Revision

(1,000 head)

Net 

Revision

(1,000 head)

Current 

Estimate

(1,000 head)

June 1, 2015 All Hogs 

and Pigs 66,900 +165+0.2%

+100

+0.1%

+265

+0.4% 67,165

September 1, 2015 All Hogs 

and Pigs 68,395 -220-0.3%

+1,010

+1.5%

+790

+1.2% 69,185

Pig Crop 30,585 +3

+0.01%

+755

+2.5%

+758

+2.5% 31,343

December 1, 2015 All Hogs 

and Pigs 68,299 +90+0.1% 68,389

March 25, 2016
U.S. Hogs & Pigs March 1

Items 2015 2016 % PY

1,000 head

All Hogs & Pigs 67,399 67,644 100

Breeding Hogs 5,982 5,980 100

Market Hogs 61,418 61,664 100

180 lbs & over 11,255 11,274 100

120-179 lbs 13,580 13,744 101

50-119 lbs 17,129 17,263 101

less than 50 lbs 19,454 19,382 100

Sows Farrowed 2,895 2,873 99

Pig Crop 29,627 29,582 100

number

Pigs per Litter 10.23 10.30 101

1,000 head

Mar-May Farrowings 2,854 2,839 99

Jun-Aug Farrowings 3,017 2,912 97

March 25, 2016
67.6

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million head

U.S. Quarterly Hogs & Pigs

2007 - 2016

March 25, 2016
NASS Estimates Compared

to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items

NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 100.4% 100.3% 99.0% – 101.5%

Breeding Hogs 100.0% 100.6% 100.0% – 101.0%

Market Hogs 100.4% 100.3% 99.0% – 101.5%

Dec – Feb Pig Crop 99.9% 100.1% 99.0% – 101.4%

Farrowing Intentions

Mar – May 2016 99.5% 100.1% 99.9% – 100.4%

Jun – Aug 2016 96.5% 100.3% 98.0% – 101.7%

March 25, 2016
59

61

63

65

67

69

71

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million head

ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range

All Hogs and Pigs

First Estimate Versus Final Estimate

2007 - 2016

March 25, 2016
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2007-2016

2.87

2.91

2.84

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million head

Dec-Feb Estimate Mar-May Intentions Jun-Aug Intentions

March 25, 2016
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Dec 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Mar 1

Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow

Utilization

(Percent)

2007 6,116 913 946 6,149 47

2008 6,233 953 920 6,200 49

2009 6,062 877 807 5,992 49

2010 5,850 846 756 5,760 49

2011 5,778 792 802 5,788 49

2012 5,803 823 840 5,820 48

2013 5,819 805 819 5,834 48

2014 5,757 779 873 5,851 48

2015 5,939 792 835 5,982 49

2016 6,002 782 760 5,980 48

March 25, 2016
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2007-2016

10.53

10.23 10.30

9.0

9.3

9.6

9.9

10.2

10.5

10.8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

March 25, 2016
U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

December 2015 - February 2016

10.30

8.00

8.70

9.10

9.50

10.10

10.40

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000+

Pigs per Litter

Size of Operation

March 25, 2016
Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter

March 25, 2016
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers

for Hogs & Corn

$1.50

$2.50

$3.50

$4.50

$5.50

$6.50

$7.50

$8.50

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Corn $/bu

Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn

March 25, 2016
Upcoming NASS Reports

Release Date Report Title

March 30 Agricultural Prices

March 31 Grain Stocks

Rice Stocks

Prospective Plantings

April 1 Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Grain Crushings

April 12 Crop Production

April 20 Milk Production

Livestock Slaughter - Annual

April 22 Cattle on Feed

April 28 Poultry – Production and Value

Production, Disposition, & Income:

Meat Animals, Milk

Annual Dairy Products

March 25, 2016
All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

(202) 720-3570

(800) 727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

March 25, 2016