HOGS & PIGS INVENTORY

Secretary’s Briefing

December 23, 2011

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service
December Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period: November 30-

December 14

Sample Size 10,725

Collection Methods

Phone, mail, internet, personal interview

Main Data Items

Total Inventory, by class, weight group, and quarter

Sows Farrowing, pig crop, and pigs per litter

December 23, 2011 
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Revisions

Quarter Item

(000) Hd % 

Revision

Change Estimate

June 1, 2011

All Hogs & Pigs +620 65,320 +1.0%

Pig Crop +401 29,252 +1.4%

September 1, 2011 All Hogs & Pigs +145 66,744 +0.2%

December 23, 2011
U.S. Hogs & Pigs Inventory

December 1, 2011

Inventory Items (000) Hd % PY

All Hogs & Pigs 65,931 102%

Breeding Hogs 5,803 100%

Market Hogs 60,128 102%

Sep – Nov Pig Crop 29,014 102%

Sows Farrowing 2,894 100%

Litter Rate Number % PY

Sep – Nov 2011 10.02 101%

Farrowing Intentions (000) Hd % PY

Dec 2011 – Feb 2012 2,865 101%

Mar – May 2012 2,890 99%

December 23, 2011
5 6

5 8

6 0

6 2

6 4

6 6

6 8

7 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory

December 1, 2011

65.9 

December 23, 2011
NASS Estimates Compared to Trade Expectations

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items NASS

Estimate

Trade

Average

Trade

Range

All Hogs & Pigs 101.5% 101.3% 100.0% – 102.0%

Breeding Hogs 100.4% 100.8% 100.4% – 101.0%

Market Hogs 101.7% 101.3% 100.0% – 102.0%

Sept – Nov Pig Crop 101.8% 101.6% 101.0% – 102.0%

Farrowing Intentions

Dec 2011– Feb 2012 100.8% 100.6% 100.0% – 101.1%

Mar – May 2012 99.1% 100.8% 100.5% – 101.3%

December 23, 2011
December 23, 2011 58 

59 

60 

61 

62 

63 

64 

65 

66 

67 

68 

69 

70 

Jun 

0 5

Dec 

0 5

Jun 

0 6

Dec 

0 6

Jun 

0 7

Dec 

0 7

Jun 

0 8

Dec 

0 8

Jun 

0 9

Dec 

0 9

Jun 

1 0

Dec 

1 0

Jun 

11

Dec 

11 Million Head

All Hogs and Pigs

Board vs Trade Expectations

ASB Final Est Trade ASB First Est
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

S-N 

0 7

D-F 

0 8

M-M 

0 8

J-A 

0 8

S-N 

0 8

D-F 

0 9

M-M 

0 9

J-A 

0 9

S-N 

0 9

D-F 

1 0

M-M 

1 0

J-A 

1 0

S-N 

1 0

D-F 

11

M-M 

11

J-A 

11

S-N 

11

Feeder Pigs Slaughter

Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

December 23, 2011
2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed 

September - November

ASB Estimate Dec-Feb Intentions Mar-May Intentions

December 23, 2011

Million Head
Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition & Utilization

Year

Sep 1

Estimate Slaughter Additions Dec 1Estimate

Sow

Utilization

(000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd (000) Hd Percent

2002 6,051 877 884 6,058 47%

2003 5,948 872 943 6,019 48%

2004 5,972 875 883 5,980 48%

2005 5,993 866 904 6,031 48%

2006 6,099 947 965 6,116 48%

2007 6,208 976 1,001 6,233 51%

2008 6,061 964 965 6,062 50%

2009 5,875 941 917 5,850 50%

2010 5,770 849 858 5,778 50%

2011 5,806 875 872 5,803 50%

December 23, 2011
8.60

8.80

9.00

9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

10.20

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter 

September - November

10.02

December 23, 2011
10.02

7.40

8.30

8.90

9.30

9.90

10.10

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1000-1999 2000-4999 5000+

Size of Operation

U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

September – November 2011

December 23, 2011
$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 11

Year

U.S. Prices Received by Farmers 

for Hogs & Corn 

Hogs Corn Hogs $/cwt

Corn $/bu

December 23, 2011
Upcoming Reports

December 30 Agricultural Prices

January 12 Grain Stocks,

Crop Production

January 20 Cattle on Feed

January 27 Cattle,

Sheep and Goats

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

December 23, 2011