## October 201 5



# Re v is i on to t h e

S t ate I mpl e m entati o n Pl a n

f or A ir Qu a l it y

Demon s tr a tion that Maine Com p l i es w ith the

Good N e igh b or Req u i r e m ents of

Clean Air Act S e c tion 110(a)(2 ) (D)(i)(I) for the

2008 O z one Na t ional Am b i e nt Air Qual i t y St a n d ard

Prepared by the

Bure a u of A i r QualityPage | 1



### Su m m a r y

S ec t i ons 110( a ) ( l) a nd ( 2 ) of the Cle a n Air A c t ( C A A ) re qu i re a ll stat e s to summarize a n y n e c e ssa r y

r e vis i ons to their S tate I mp l e ment a t i on P lans ( S I P ) to i m plem e nt, maint a i n a nd e nf o r c e a n y r e vised o r new

n a t i on a l ambient a ir q u a l i t y stand a rd ( NAAQ S )

. These SIP r e vis i o n s a re c om m on l y ref e r red to as

“ inf ra str u c ture S I P s.” In March 2008

, t he U.S. Environm e ntal P rot ec t i on Ag e n c y ( E P A ) r e vised the o z one

N A A Q S

, a nd in July 2012

, c omp l e t e d the d e s i g n a t i o n pr oce ss for no n a t t a in m e nt areas

. The Maine

Department of Environmental Protection ( D EP) subsequ e nt l y submi t ted Maine’s inf ra str u c ture S I

P on June

7, 2013.

This S I P r e vis i on suppl e ments D E P ’s June 2013 submi t tal, f urth e r a dd r e ss i n g the CAA §110( a ) ( 2 ) ( D ) ( i) ( I )

( “ g o o d n e i g hbor ” ) r e q u ir e men t s to demonstr a te t h a t emissions f

r om sour ce s in Maine d o not si g nifi ca nt l y

cont r ibu t e to nonattainment in, or int e r f e re with mainten a n c e b y

, a n y oth e r st a te w i t h r e sp e c t t o the 2008

o z one N A A Q S

. D EP’s a n a l y sis of r e ce nt o z one mon i tori n g d a ta, re ce nt E P A model i ng f o r the Cross State

A i r Pollu t ion R ule (C S AP R ) a nd a potential n e w tr a nsport r u l e d e monstr a tes that Maine m ee ts i ts g ood

n e i ghbor r e quir e m e nts for the 2008 N A A Q S

. 1



### Ba c k g r o un d a n d I n t r o d u c tion

On M a r c h 12, 2008, EPA r e vis ed the prim a r y a nd s e c ond ar y o z one N A A QS. 2 S p ec ifi ca l l y , EPA

e stabl i sh e d both the prim a r y a n d s ec ond a r y 8

- hour stan d a

rds a t 75 p a rts p e r billion, b a s e d o n the 3

- y ea r

a v e ra g e o f t he fou r t h

- h i g h e st val u e o f the y ea r l y dis t ribution of 8

- hour d a i l y ma x i m um con ce ntr a t i ons

. EPA promul g a ted i ni t ial d e si g n a t i on s on Ap r il 30, 2012, designat ing Maine as unclassifiable/ attainment

. 3

P ursu a nt t o CAA §110(a) ( l) a nd ( 2 ), a ll stat e s must subm i t n e ce ssa r y r e vis i ons to their S I P to p r ovid e f

or

the i m plem e ntation, mainten a n c e a nd e nfo r c e ment of r e vi s e d or ne w N A A Q S

. S tat e s must m a in t a in a

c ompr e h e nsive a ir qu a l i t y man a g e ment program , includi n g e n f or c ea b l e e m i ss i on l i m i ta t ions, a n a mb i e nt

mon i t o ring pr o g r a m, a n e nfo rce m e nt pr o g r a m, a ir qu a l i t y modeli n g

, a nd a d e qu a te p e rsonn e l, r e sour c e s, a nd

l e g a l aut h ori t y

. The “ g ood n e i g h b or” pro v is i ons of the CAA r e quire eac h S I P to proh i bit its e m i ss i ons from

si g nifi ca nt l y contributing to non a t t a in m e nt or maint e n a n c e of t h e o z one N A A QS in oth e r st a te s , or

in t e r f e r ing with prog ra ms t o pr e v e nt s i g n ifi ca nt d e te r io r a t i on of a i r qu a l i t y or to ac hie v e re a son a ble

p r o gr e ss tow a

rd the n a t i on a l v i sib i l i t y g o a l for Fe d e r a l c l ass I a re a s (n a t i on a l p a rks a nd wi l d e rn e ss a r ea s).

B a s e d on t i m i n g r e qui r e ments in the CA A , stat e s w e r e r e qu i r e d t o submit o z one inf ra stru c tu r e S I

P

r e vis i ons b y M a r c h 2011

. Ho w e v e r, due to l e g a l c h a l l e ng e s to the 2008 o z one N A A Q S

, a nd E P A ’s

rec onsi d e r a

t i on of the st a n d a rd, no n a t t a in m e nt a re a d e s i g n a t i ons r e main e d unknown until M a r c h 2011

. F ol l owi n g EPA ’ s c omp l e t i on of d e s i g n a t i ons in J u l y 2012, D EP subm i t t e d Maine’s o z one inf r a stru c ture

S I P on June 7

, 2013

, a f

t e r m ee t i ng the publ i c p a rti c ipation r e qui r e men t s of 40 C F R 51, App e nd i x V,

Se c t i on 2.1. In accordance with EPA’s recommendation, the DEP forestalled submitting the

110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) components at that time. 4 The DEP’s submission awaits EPA approval at th is time

.

In J a nu a r y 2015, E P A issued g uidan c e to assist in pr e p a ring S I P r e vis i ons to a ddr e ss c omp l ian c e with CAA

§110( a ) ( 2 ) ( D ) ( i) ( I ) for the 2008 o z one N A A QS

. The g ui d a n c e discuss e s e lem e nts pr e v i ous l y us e d to

ad d r e ss i nte r state tr a nsp o rt f or oth e r N A A Q S a nd pr e s e nt e d n e w, p r e l i m i n a r y EPA atmospheric o z one

modeli n g (modeling) r e sul t s for 2018 b a s e d on e m i ss i on r e du c t i ons a nt i c ipat e d f r om p r e vio u s l y a dopted a ir

pollut i on c ontrol pr o g r a ms

. EPA ’ s pr e l i m i n a r y modeling identifi e d stat e s that a re projected to s i g ni f ic a nt l y

1 M em ora ndu m f

r o m S t e ph e n P a ge t o E PA R e gio n al Air Di r e ct o r s

, Regio n s 1

- 10 o n Go o d N e igh b or SIP Pr o v i s ion for

t h e 2008 O z o n e N AA Q S, J a nu ary 22, 2015.

2 T h e N AAQS r ev i s io n s we r e pub li s h e d in th e 3/2 7 / 2008 F e de ral R e g i s ter a n d b e ca m e e f f e c ti v e o n 5/2 7 /20 0 8.

3 T h e d e s ign a ti on s r u l e m a k i n g was pub li s h e d in th e 5/ 2 1/2 0 12 F e d e ral R e g i s te r

, an d b e c a m e e f f e ct i v e 7 / 20/ 2 0 12.

4 In comments to DEP dated February 7, 2013 EPA suggested “[i ]n light of ongoing litigation, we suggest Maine

address the ‘significantly contribute to nonattainment or maintenance in another state’ portion of element D(i) . . . at a

later time.”Page | 2

c ontribute ( a t le a st 1% of the NAAQ S ) to nonattainm e nt / mainten a n c e c o n ce rns in o t h e r st a tes in 2018

. EPA h e ld a wo r kshop i n Ap r il 2015 to f ac i l i t a te discussions , if necessary, on c ontrol a nd e m i ss i on bud g e t

a pproa c h e s that could be used to me e t t he g ood n e i g hbor obl i g a t i ons

. 5 At that me e t i n g

, EPA indic a ted pl a ns

to r e le a se up d a ted mod e l ing inco r por a t i n g inv e nto r y i m prov e m e nts duri n g the summ e r of 2015

, c ont i nue

the t ra nsport di s c uss i ons, a nd p r opose ru l e making in late 2 0 15 for a f e d e r a l i m plem e ntation p l a n (FIP)

b ac kstop, to t a ke e f

fe c t i n st a tes th a t do not timely su b m i t app r ov a ble S I P s

. EPA ’ s J a nu a r y 2015 g u i d a n c e r e f e rs to a fou r

- step p r o ce ss used pr e vious l y to ad d r e ss o z one tr a nsport:

1) I d e nt i f

y down w ind air q u a l i t y pro b lems;

2) I d e nt i f

y upwind st a tes t h a t cont

r ibu t e e no u g h to t hose down w ind air qu a l i t y probl e ms t o w a r r a nt

fu r ther r e vi e w a n d a n a l y si s ;

3) I d e nt i f

y the e m i ss i ons r e du c t i ons n ece ss a r y to pr e v e nt an id e nt i fi e d upwi n d st a te f rom

c ontributing s i g nifi ca nt l y to t hose down w ind air q u a l i t y pro b lems; a nd

4) Adoption of p e rm a n e nt a nd e nfo r c ea ble m ea su r e s n ee d e d to a c hieve those e m i ss i on

r e du c t i ons.

Maine’s g ood n e i ghbor S I P r e vis i on is c onsistent with this f our

- step process.

Th r ou g h th i s S I

P submi t t a l, D EP an a l y z e d b oth a mb i e nt m oni t oring d a ta a nd EPA mod e l i ng r e sul t s to

demonstr a te that Maine’s e x is t ing c ontrol pr o g r a ms e nsure that e m i ss i ons f r om Maine do not

si g nifi ca nt l y c ontribute to nonattainment or mainten a n c e is s u e s in a n y oth e r st a te with r e sp ec t t o the 2008

o z one N A A Q S

. Th e ref

o r e

, Maine c omp l ies w i t h the re quir e ments of CAA §110( a ) ( 2 ) ( D ) ( i ) ( I )

.



### Me tho d ology

The “ g ood n e i g hbo r ” pr o vis i o n s of CAA §110( a ) ( 2) ( D ) ( i ) ( I ) r e qui r e e a c h s tat e ’s S I P to prohibit e m i ss i ons

th a t s i g nifi ca n tl y c ontribute to nonattai n ment in, or int e r fe r e with mainten a n c e b y

, a n y other state with

r e s p ec t t o a n y N A A Q S

. D EP u s e d the f ol l owing m e thodo l o g y to i mp l e ment the f ou r

- step p ro c e ss ou t l ined

in EPA ’ s J a nu a r y 2 0 15 g uida n c e to i d e nt i f y a nd a ddr e ss Maine’s g ood n e i ghbor obl i g a t i on.

DEP examined the results of EPA’s modeling set out in the January 2015 guidance to:

• Identify monitors outside of Maine that are projected to have nonattainment or maintenance

issues in 2018 ; and

• Determine if the modeled impacts associated with emissions from Maine sources are projected

to exceed the sc reening threshold at any of the n onattainment/maintenance monitors in 2018.

EPA’s m od e l i ng did not identify an y s i g nifi c a nt i mpa c ts b y Maine emissions to downwind air quality

problem s in 201 8 . Therefore D E P determined it was unnecessary to undertake further analysis regarding the

effectiveness of current control techniques.

The following s ec t i ons d o c ument the a ppl i ca t i on of the a bove methodol o gy a nd DEP’s f ind i n g s re g a rdi n g

Maine’s c omp l ian c e with C AA § 110( a ) ( 2 ) ( D ) (i ) ( I ) for t h e 2008 o z one N A A Q S

.

Identi f ica t ion of M o n ito r s S ig n i f icantly I m p a c t e d b y Maine E m is s io n s in 2018

In the January 2015 guidance, EPA released preliminary ozone modeling results for 2018

, based on emission

reductions anticipated from previously adopted state and federal control programs. 6 EPA used the CSAPR

modeling approach to assess the effects of interstate transport on attainment and maintenance of the 2008

5 B a s e d on the upholding of the C S APR f ra me w ork by the Sup r e me Court, EPA’s ac t i ons will fo c us on w h a t i t

c onsid e rs to be c os t

- e f

f e c t i ve ac t i ons th a t a r e ac hiev a b l e b y the st a rt of the 2017 o z one s ea son, when m od e r a te a re a s

a re r e qui r e d to ac hieve c omp l ian c e with the 2008 o z one N A A Q S

.

6 EPA has posted a memorandum, technical support document, and related data files documenting the January 2015

preliminary modeling at: http://www.epa.gov/airtransport/ozonetransportNAA QS.html

.Page | 3

ozone NAAQS. EPA modeled 2011 base year and 2018 projected emissions using the Comprehensive Air

Quality Model with Extensions (CA Mx), version 6.10 and 2011 meteorological data. Results from 2011 and

2018 were used to develop a relative response factor (RRF) for each ozone monitoring site, which is the

fractional change in the modeled 8

- hour daily maximum ozone levels between the two years.

EPA then used a methodology described in its draft guidance for attainment demonstration modeling to

identify ozone monitoring sites that it projected to be in nonattainment or have maintenance issues with the

2008 ozone NAAQS in 2018. 7 The approach entailed calculating the maximum and average of the monitored

ozone design values for the five years centered on the 2011 base year (2009

– 2013) for each ozone monitor.

Those values were multiplied by the corresponding RRFs to project averag e and maximum 2018 design

values. Sites with average projected 2018 design value that exceeded 75 ppb, the 2008 ozone NAAQS, were

identified as projected 2018 nonattainment monitors. Monitoring sites with 2018 average projected design

values below the NAAQ S but with 2018 maximum projected design values that exceeded the NAAQS were

identified as projected 2018 maintenance monitors.

The EPA also performed nationwide state

- level ozone source apportionment modeling using the CAMx

Ozone Source Apportionment Tec hnology/Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Analysis (OSAT/APCA)

technique to quantify the contribution of 2018 oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compound

(VOC) emissions from all sources in each state to projected 2018 ozone concentrations at monitoring sites. If

a state’s interstate transport impact in 2018 equaled or exceeded the screening threshold of 1% of the ozone

NAAQS at a nonattainment or maintenance monitor in another state, then the upwind state is “linked” to the

downwind state, pot entially requiring additional emission reductions to meet the CAA good neighbor

provision. If the modeling shows a state does not contribute above the screening threshold to any downwind

problem monitor, then EPA concludes that no further action is needed to comply with the CAA good

neighbor provision.

Table 1 summarizes EPA’s 2018 modeling results, showing Maine’s impacts at projected out

- of

- state

nonattainment/maintenance monitors located in the eastern half of the country

. 8 Emissions from Maine are

proj ected to have a maximum impact in 2018 of 0. 0 1 ppb at the monitor in Fairfield C ounty Connecticut

. Maine impacts at the monitors of concern are non

- detects, well below the 1% screening threshold of 0.75

ppb for the 2008 NAAQS. Therefore, in accordance with EPA’s January 2015 guidance, Maine complies

with the CAA §110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) good neighbor provisions for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.

B a s e d on t h e EPA’s modeling d e s c rib e d a bov e

, Maine ’s e m i ss i ons are not projected to h a ve si g n i fi ca nt

i mpa c ts at any mon i tors l o ca ted at nonattainment or maintenance areas in other sta t e s

.

7 EPA, “Modeling Guidance for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional

Haze

- December 2014 DRAFT” http://www.epa.gov/scram001/guidance/guide/Draft_O3

- PMRH_Modeling_Guidance

2014.pdf

8 EPA included Texas in its analysis of eastern states.Page | 4 

### Table 1 : Maine Co nt r i but i o ns t o M o n i t o r s P r o jec t ed by E P A M o de l i n g to H av e

2 0 1 8 N o n a t t ai n m ent or M ai n te n a nce I s s u e s

2018 Nonattainment Areas

Contributions (ppb) Maintenance Areas

Contributions (ppb) Contribution

as a Percent of

Average Daily

Value

State Average Design

Value Monitoring Site Maine Maine

CT 76.7 90013007

-

CT 77.5 90019003 0.01 0.0 1 %

CT 74.1 90010017

-

CT 75.8 90099002

-

KY 73.7 211110067

-

MD 79.4 240251001

-

MI 74.5 260050003

-

MO 74.1 291831002

-

NJ 72.3 340071001

-

NJ 74.0 340150002

-

NY 78.2 361030002

-

NY 74.6 360850067

-

PA 74.7 421010024

-

TX 80.5 480391004

-

TX 77.0 481210034

-

TX 76.4 482010024

-

TX 76.6 482011034

-

TX 77.7 482011039

-

TX 79.7 484392003

-

TX 78.3 484393009

-

TX 75.0 480850005

-

TX 73.7 481130069

-

TX 75.2 481130075

-

TX 75.1 481211032

-

TX 75.4 482010029

-

TX 75.0 482010055

-

TX 75.5 484390075

-

TX 74.2 484393011

-

WI 75.4 551170006

-



### Su m m a r y a n d Concl u sio n s

This S I P r e vis i on a dd r e sses Maine’s “ g ood n e i g hbo r ” obl i g a t i ons und e r CAA §110( a ) ( 2 ) ( D ) (i ) ( I )

, e v a luating

w h e ther Maine emissions cont r ibu t e si g nifi ca nt l y to nonattai n ment in, or int e r fe r e with mainten a n c e b y

, a n y

ot h e r st a te regarding t he 2008 o z one N A A Q S

. D E P’s a n a l y s e s i n c luded a r e view of EPA’s January 2015

guidance memorandum and prelimi nary transport modeling results.Page | 5

As d e s c rib e d ea rli e r, D E P’s a n a l y s e s r e sul t e d in the f ol l owing findi n g s: E P A ’ s pr e l i m i n a r y t r a nsport

modeli n g f

o r 20 1 8 show o z one c ontributions f r om Maine emissions a

re b e low the signifi ca nt l e v e l at a ll ou t

o f

- state mon i tors modeled as e i t h e r no n a t t a in m e nt or mainten a n c e c on c e rns in 2018.

B a s e d on t h e a n a l y ses d e s c rib e d in t his S I P r e vis i o n , DEP c on c ludes Maine compl i e s

, a nd will r e main in

compl i a n c e with t he g ood n e i ghbor pro v is i ons of CAA §110( a ) ( 2 ) ( D ) (i ) ( I ) for the 2008 o z one N A A Q S

.