MEMORANDUM

TO: Docket EPA

- HQ

- OAR

- 2013

- 0479

FROM: Deborah A. Reed, Environmental Scientist, OAR/OTAQ/CD

SUBJECT: USDA data used for 2013 U.S. agricultural land determination

DATE: November 1 3, 201 5

As set forth in the preamble to the March 26, 2010 RFS regulations, EPA monitors total agricultural land annually to determine if national agricultural land acreage increases above the 2007 national aggregate baseline of 402 million acres.

In order to e stimate the total amount of agricultural land in the U.S. in 201 3
, 201 4 , and 201 5
, EPA relied upon data provided by two offices within the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA): the Farm Service Agency (FSA) and the Natural Resource Conservation Service (N RCS). This data was summarized and transmitted to EPA by Dr. Harry Baumes, Director of Energy Policy and New Uses, USDA Office of the Chief Economist. The spreadsheet is included here.

Please note that the EPA has made a change to the aggregate complian ce methodology based on guidance received from USDA. In the March 26, 2010 RFS regulations the aggregate compliance methodology provided for the exclusion of acreage enrolled in the Grassland Reserve Program (GRP) and the Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) fr om the estimated total U.S. agricultural land. However, the 2014 Farm Bill has terminated the GRP and WRP as of 2013 and USDA established the Agriculture Conservation Easement Program (ACEP) with wetlands and land easement components. Both programs
have similar goals, though they are different in scope and implementation. The ACEP provides financial and technical assistance to help conserve agricultural lands and wetlands and their related benefits. Under the Agricultural Land Easements component, USDA helps Indian tribes, state and local governments and non

- governmental organizations protect working agricultural lands and limit non

agricultural uses of the land. Under the Wetlands Reserve Easements component, USDA helps to restore, protect and enhance enrolled wetlands. The former WRP was a voluntary program that offered landowners the opportunity to protect, restore, and enhance wetlands on their property. The GRP was a voluntary conservation program the emphasized support for working grazing operati ons, enhancement of plant and animal biodiversity, and protection of grassland under threat of conversion
to other uses.

USDA and EPA concur that the ACEP

- WRE and ACEP

- ALE represent a continuation in basic objectives and goals of the original WRP and GRP, although the ACEP

- ALE is a bit more expansive that the GRP with respect to eligible land. Therefore it was assumed in this rulemaking that acreage enrolled in the easement programs would represent a reasonable proxy of WRP and GRP acreage. Both Agencieshave committed to conduct a more detailed analysis of the new programs for the 2017 RFS Annual

Volume Regulation.

Based on data provided by the FSA and NRCS, we have estimated that U.S. agricultural land reached approximately 380 million acres in 2013, a nd thus did not exceed the 2007 baseline acreage. This acreage estimate is based on the same methodology used to set the 2007 baseline acreage for U.S. agricultural land in the RFS2 final rulemaking. Specifically, we started with FSA crop history data for 2013, a total estimated acreage of 379,717,296 acres. We then subtracted the amount of land estimated to be participating in the Grasslands Reserve Program (GRP) and Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) by the end of Fiscal Year 2013: 144,619 acres, to yield an estimate of approximately 380 million acres of U.S. agricultural land in 2013. Note that the GRP and WRP programs were still in place in 2013.

Similarly, we have estimated that U.S. agricultural land reached approximately 378 million acres in 2014, and thus did not exceed the 2007 baseline acreage. This acreage estimate is based on the same methodology used to set the 2007 baseline acreage for U.S. agricultural land in the RFS2 final rulemaking, with GRP and WRP data substitution as noted above. Specif ically, we started with FSA crop history data for 2014, from which we derived a total estimated acreage of 377,829,781 acres. We then subtracted the amount of land estimated to be participating in the Agriculture Land Easement (ACEP

ALE) and Wetlands Reser ve (ACEP

- WRE) by the end of Fiscal Year 2014, 143,834 acres, to yield an estimate of approximately 378 million acres of U.S. agricultural land in 2014. The USDA data used to
make this derivation can be found in the docket to this rule.

Finally, we have es timated that U.S. agricultural land reached approximately 379 million acres in 2015, and thus did not exceed the 2007 baseline acreage. This acreage estimate is based on the same methodology used to set the 2007 baseline acreage for U.S. agricultural land in the RFS2 final rulemaking, with GRP and WRP data substitution as noted above. Specifically, we started with FSA crop history data for 2015, from which we derived a total estimated acreage of 379,236,620 acres. We then subtracted the Agriculture Land Ea sement (ACEP

- ALE) and Wetlands Reserve (ACEP

- WRE) enrolled acres by the end of Fiscal Year 2015, 84,133 acres, to yield an estimate of approximately 379 million acres of U.S. agricultural land in 2015. The USDA data used to make this estimation can be foun d in the docket to
this rule.

The 2013 , 2014 and 2015 total agricultural land estimate s are well below the 2007 baseline of 402 million acres. Therefore, no further analysis is needed and no additional renewable biomass recordkeeping and reporting requir ements are triggered for renewable fuel producer s using crops and crop residues as a fuel feedstock . This result supports historical trends in U.S. land used for agriculture, and the EPA assumption that these trends would continue in an overall contractio n in agricultural land acreage over time. This contraction offsets any increase in agricultural land used to produce crops and crop residue as a feedstock for renewable fuel.

Attachment: Data provide d by Harry Baumes, OEPNU/OCE