MACT Existing UPL for Mercury Using Pooled Variance, Corrected for Temporal Autocorrelation with Intraquarry Variability

Emissions (lb/ton feed)

Runs Kiln ID 1259 Kiln ID 1286 Kiln ID 1302 Kiln ID 1315 Kiln ID 1364 Kiln ID 1435 Kiln ID 14

1 18.88 27.01 16.82 16.67 26.00 30.50 30.50 2 15.77 28.73 12.97 12.76 28.27 27.52 27.52 3 20.71 28.67 9.49 9.57 27.59 29.07 29.07 4 22.61 27.95 10.43 10.58 37.25 24.64 24.64 5 19.67 7.66 9.44 9.64 28.78 23.82 23.82 6 25.90 7.49 11.47 11.71 7.72 24.52 24.52 7 22.63 7.58 13.59 13.83 42.98 25.14 25.14 8 21.21 8.12 12.85 12.72 25.28 26.46 26.46 9 5.07 23.93 4.30 4.38 24.67 25.49 25.49 

10 44.96 22.61 12.04 12.29 25.39 38.60 38.60 11 34.37 23.06 21.41 20.55 24.24 24.65 24.65 12 13.46 24.21 13.65 13.82 23.34 29.45 29.45 13 11.57 25.25 12.44 12.54 25.04 25.04 25.04 14 13.90 21.47 16.52 16.66 23.65 29.91 29.91 15 27.43 25.53 22.02 22.51 26.83 1.43 1.43 16 25.55 25.89 12.31 12.31 27.19 5.07 5.07 17 21.95 29.34 15.39 15.11 24.25 25.97 25.97 18 12.10 26.03 13.51 13.59 25.28 29.30 29.30 19 12.83 7.60 3.75 3.82 24.83 26.93 26.93 20 9.18 24.26 9.40 9.59 23.88 26.63 26.63 21 8.74 23.68 10.88 11.06 23.69 24.82 24.82 22 17.63 19.77 12.45 12.35 21.74 24.11 24.11 23 47.30 21.97 11.76 11.89 26.04 22.00 22.00 24 33.53 22.80 11.73 11.75 7.28 22.00 22.00 25 19.11 23.23 60.15 61.31 26.36 22.00 22.00 26 25.09 31.24 20.59 19.93 36.12 35.74 35.74 27 14.94 30.64 13.96 14.10 28.96 24.47 24.47 28 17.89 32.58 21.90 21.19 29.82 38.69 38.69 29 24.46 28.53 12.74 11.85 29.05 27.28 27.2830 39.85 28.41 27.66 26.93 26.9331 12.95 23.83 23.83
32 24.11 24.11

33 27.28 27.2834 24.82 24.8235 24.47 24.47

ni = number runs = 31.00 29.00 30.00 30.00 29.00 35.00 35.00 

ni‐1 30.00 28.00 29.00 29.00 28.00 34.00 34.00 

= sum of (ni‐1) 268.00means 21.33 22.65 15.28 15.26 25.91 25.51 25.Mean 20.69 #source mean = mean of source means

N = Number sources= 9.00 #because UPL is based on source means

m= number future runs = 30.00
t‐statistic 2.

Assuming Correlated variablescorrelation

0.14 0.54 0.10 0.08 ‐0.19 0.24 0.

Pooled stdev= 9.62605957 Revised 3 quarry 0.

Variance data = 92.6610229 *** defined as sdev^2

adjustment for temporal c 111.996455 *** defined as before variance* (1+corr)

intra quarry variance= 116.012236 *** defined as (RSD*Mean)^2

adjustment for temporal c 175.953767

total variance 287.950222 *** QUESTION FOR MIKE: DOES TEMPORAL CORRELATION AFFECT THE QUARRY OR 

*** IN OTHER WORDS, WHAT YOU GET FROM THE QUARRY ONE DAY DEPENDS OF W*** If NOT, THEN ONLY THE MEASUREMENTS HAVE TEMPORAL CORRELATION, IF YES*** DATA AND INTRAQUARRY VARIANCE NEED TO BE MULTIPLIED BY (1+CORR)

Variance = Variance pooled, intraquarry 287.95 #calculated as variance*(1+average(temporal correlation))

SQRT(Variance*(1/n+1/m)) 5.98UPL‐‐ source mean and variance pooled 34.69 lb/MM tons feed

57.24 lb/MM tons clinker

*** if the data in columns Oto Q are the intraquarry data, we can calculate the temp

it for the adjustment of the intraquarry variance
Kiln ID 1594

13.6030.0532.8832.5928.7334.1432.3323.3835.0032.9131.4427.4828.5525.1925.6310.0128.0330.2725.8533.3629.1026.9129.7030.0210.9111.8714.0413.4915.7213.75
30.00

29.00

25.23
2,df)

0.53

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HE PREVIOUS DAYS?

HE VARIANCE OF

there and use
MACT New UPL for Mercury Using Pooled Variance, Corrected for Temporal Autocorrelation with Intraquarry Variability ‐ 07/

Emissions (lb/ton feed)

Runs MACT NewKiln 1650

1 13.222 7.643 9.534 1.715 7.666 0.327 14.128 13.709 12.72

10 11.2411 10.5612 9.8213 12.9214 13.7015 9.4616 7.6617 12.3618 13.9819 9.4020 8.6821 7.6022 7.6223 7.6324 8.2025 11.2726 8.9327 7.6428 7.60293031
32

333435

ni = number runs = 28.00

ni‐1 27.00

= sum of (ni‐1) 27.00Mean 9.53 #source mean = mean of source means

n to be used with 1 sou 28.00

m= number future run 30.00

t‐statistic = quantile t‐distribution with df degrees of freedom at .99 confidence level = 

Assuming Correlated variablescorrelation =correl(data‐last,data ‐ first obs)Stdev= 3.35 RVariance data = 11.2533357 *** defined as sdev^2

adjustment for tempor 13.4477546 *** defined as before variance* (1+corr)

intra quarry variance= 24.62682492 *** defined as (RSD*Mean)^2

adjustment for tempor 37.35108256 *** if the data in columns Oto Q are the intraquarry data, 

total variance 50.79883717 *** defined as variance of data + intra quarry varianceVariance = Variance pooled, intraquarry data adjusted for temporal 50.7988372

SQRT(Variance*(1/n+1/m)) 1.87284243
UPL‐‐ source mean and variance pooled data, including intraquarry 14.1634054 lb/MM tons feed

23.3696189 lb/MM tons clinker

Recall the formula for the variance is N is the number of sampling units used in the sample: in t

mporal correlation there and use it for the adjustment of the intraquarry variance
ata points