REF ID:A39485 

........_ __ · 

-~ 17 

IS THIS OUR LAST CHANCE 

FOR PEACE? ' ' ' 

By JOSEPH and STEWART ALSOP 

These are the grim facts the free world faces: A Russian ~~devastation" stockpile of atom 

bombs, a Red. Air Force larger than ours, and 6,000,000 Russians under arms by 1955> Is 

. there anything we can do to avert. this menace? Yes, ~a y these experts- provided we act now. 

O

N the training courses of the intelljgence serv-

- ices, the first lesson is fo distinguish between 

"capabilities" and "intentions." As words of 

art, capabilities are what the other fellow can 

do to you, and :ip.tentions are what he means to do to 

you. Mistakes about either are easy and frequently 

costly. It is idiotic to get into a fight with a perfectly good friend, just because he is flexing bis biceps. It is even worse to be.knocked out cold by an 

enemy, just because you have paid more attention 

.to the smile on bis face than to the knuckle-duster 

inbis~~~ -

Democracies incorrigibly incline toward the latter error. Stanley Baldwin and Neville Chamberlain 

all but destroyed Britain by it. We ourselves importantly promoted the loss of .China by our breakneck postwar demobilization: And we invited the 

Korean aggression by the Truman-Louis Johnson 

disarmament policy of 1949-50. 

It is well to remember these incidents of the past, 

now that America is again engaged in a fateful calculation of capabilities and intentions. On the one 

hand, the Kremlin's new rivalries at home ·and new 

peacefulness abroad fill the headlines, and are raising high hopes for an end· of the cold war. On the 

other hand, the Soviet Union's growing military 

power is causing the darkef!t apprehensions among 

the few who trouble to follow the true trend of the 

world power balance. 

Which are to guide our policy, the apprehensions 

or the hopes? 

The present report solely concerns Soviet capabilities, and it will have only this to say about 

Soviet intentions: If we are again deceived, . the 

penalty will not be paid in such distant countries as 

China and Korea. One way or another, the penalty 

will be paid here in the United States. 

' This is predictable, in turn, because the American 

Ec)trategic situation is now being transformed in a way 

that very few Americans even dimly understand. 

We are in tlie midst of an unnoticed revolution, all 

too closely ~esemblin~ the change that overtook 

' \ 

\ 

· Britain when the Germans passed the British in 

military-industrial strenith and the invention of. 

modern aircraft opened the British Isles to attack 

across the Channel. 

It took niore than eight decades, from the accession of Bismarck to the outbreak of war in 1939, for 

Britain to let slip her ancient position as the invulnerable arbiter of Europe. In our case, the challenge 

is perhaps more difficult to meet; since the change 

has gone very far indeed in the eight short years 

since 1945. The causes are: 

The invention of aqsolute weapons; 

The emergence of the Soviet empire as a militaryindustrial giant power; 

And the development of weapons systems which can 

reach from continent to continent, reducing our pro-

"tecting ocean moats almost to the status of the Strait of 

Dover. 

Thus far, these revolutionary developments have 

never really been taken into account in American 

policy making. For instance, we have built heavily 

on our atomic monopoly. Yet, as will be shoW!l, the 

breaking of that monopoly by the Soviet Union was 

not even allowed for in the whopping defense budgets of the last two Truman years~ 

When asked to explain this curious neglect, such 

leading postwar policy makers as Charles E. Bohlen 

and George F. Kennan μsed to reply that coping 

with the change in the American situation was too 

heavy and too painful a task. Something might still 

turn up, they used to say, to alter the whole trend. 

When asked just what might turn up, they would 

· then answer in effect that Stalin's toes might turn up. 

Stalin waited a long while to die. We can no 

longer hope that it will be eight years, or ten years, 

or fifteen years before tp.e final phase, when this 

country· will come within direct and easy range of 

Soviet power. We must now expect this to happen 

in two or three or at the most four years, unless 

positive counteraction is taken. Such is the real 

problem. It is made all the worse by the general unawareness that the problem exists. For those, then, 

who do not absolutely trust the Kremlin's peacefulness, it may be well to have a look at this problem's main aspects. 

The . invention of absolute weapons is the most . 

obvious symbol of the strategic revolution of our 

time. Only eight years ago, when President Roosevelt died, the American atoμiic bomb had not been 

tested. Four years ago, when President Truman 

launched bis disarmament policy, our atomic monopoly was still unbroken-it lasted until the explosion of the. first "people's democratic" atomic 

bomb in September, 1949. When President Eisenhower was inaugurated, American official estimates 

credited the Kremlin with about 200 atomic bombs. 

In only two more years the Kremlin is' expected to 

hav~ about 400 atomic bombs. And after that will 

come the era of the "people's democratic" hydrogen 

bomb. 

The problem of how many enemy bombs would 

"devastate" America has recently been studied by 

a high-level Government-research group, Project 

East River. "Devastation" was precisely defined as 

the extent of atomic destruction that would force an 

American surrender. Possible combinations of bomb 

damage were carefully analyzed, for their effects on 

industrial plant, industrial working force, transport, 

communications, electric power, and so forth. 

In this coolly scientific manner, an exact estimate 

was made of a potentially decisive enemy stockpile. 

It can now be stated on indisputable authority that 

. Projec;t East River's decisive stockpile contained 

approximately 400 bombs, or the same stockpile that 

the Kremlin will control by the end of the year 1955. 

On the import of this development, there is testimony from a witness who may not be lightly dis- · 

regarded. No other Western leader. has studied the 

world power balance more closely than Winston 

Churchill. None has placed a higher value on the 

chief assets on our side of that balance -American 

industrial productivity, America's still enormous 

atomic lead and American strategic airpower. Yet in 

July, 1950, Churchill (Continued on Page 61) 
/ 

REF ID:A39485 

/ THE SATURDAY EVENING POST 61 

IS THIS OUR LAST 

CHANCE FOR PEACE? 

{Continueil from Page i 7) 

also been muffled by official concealments. But there is another and even 

more important reason why this phenomenon is so little understood. 'By a 

cruel paradox, the very features of the 

Soviet system which we take as signs. 

solemnly told the House of Commons: of poverty and weakneS8 and lack of 

"There could be no more certain way know-how are the secret sources of 

of bringing about the destruction of Soviet strength. 

civilization than that we· should drift on Think for a moment. What are these 

helplessly until the Soviets are fully signs of supposed Soviet weakness? 

equipped with atomic bombs." They are simply the innumerable signs 

You may not accept Churchill's that the peoples of the Soviet empire 

somber conclusion, as these reporters live in misery, at any rate by American 

do not. Yet you cannot dodge the plain standards. But if the collective farms 

facts. In the pre-atomic era, no enemy are not electrified and the Moscow 

could knock out America, because this housewives have few pots and pans, 

continent was too remote, too vast, then there are more kilowatts. of electoo Self-contained. This happy security tricity to produce aluminum and there 

has been ours for so long that we have· is more aluminum to build airframes. 

blandly continued taking it for granted If Russian machinists have no cars 

while it has been visibly crumbling and tramp to work in bast shoes, then 

away. The old security will be al-. there is more shoe leather for the armed 

together lost when the K.remlin controls forces and there is more manufacturing 

enough atomic bombs to "devastate" capacity for military vehicles and there 

America. are more petroleum products to fuel _the 

So much is .easy to. understand, once war machine. 

the fact sinks home-which our lead- . In other words, the misery of the 

ers have sedulously sought to con- Soviet people provides the surplus and 

ceal-that the Kremlin really will the strength of the Soviet state. The 

have this quantity.of atomic bombs be- surplus is vast, for it is the product of 

fore very long. What is far less easy to thelargestempireinhistory, which now 

understand is the second element in the has great industrial as well ·as agrirevolution of our time. This is the aston- cultural productivity. And since power, 

ishing rate of growth of Soviet power. and not a better life for the people, is 

· The emergence of the Soviet empire as the state's sole aim, this vast surplus of 

a military-industrial giant power has (Continnedon Page 64) 

YOU BE. THE JUDGE 

By WILLIAM DONALDSON 

ON all installment sales, Schultzz's jewelry store added a fiat 10 per 

cent "finance charge" regardless of the · num her of payments or 

length of time allowed for them. Suddenly the Government demanded 

· that the jeweler pay its 20 per cent luxury tax on the "finance charge" 

as well as the stipulated price. It said the flat charge was actually a part. 

of the price. Instead of paying, however, the jeweler took the question to 

court. 

"The price is the amount charged for the article itself," he argued. 

"The extra ten per cent simply reimburses me for the increased work and 

expense of handling installment payments over a period of time. Therefore it really isn't a part of the price." 

"If the extra ten per cent were a true finance charge, we would go 

along with that argument," Government counsel replied. "But it isn't. 

Schultzz tacks it on to the cash price no matter how many installments 

he has to handle. Surely it is more trouble to collect twenty-four installments than six. Yet he charges ten per cent regardless. So his charge is 

arbitrary and actually a part of the price, and should be subjeCt to the 

tax." . 

If you were the judge, would you make the jeweler pay the tax? 

The * * * * * jeweler had to pay. "It is or 'carrying charge' and thereby 

obvious," the court said, "that in exclude it from the tax base. This 

fixing the amount a customer is to would open unlimited opportunipay on a credit sale a merchant ties for evasion ·of the tax." 

cannot arbitrarily name any amount Based upon a 1952 decision of 

that he chooses as a' finance charge' the United States Court of Appeals. 

Caught .. -;--J 

with our ·st~mps dowri! 

·It was one of those frizzling fryeggs-on-the-sidewalks Fridays. At ten 

o'clock the Old Man phoned and said 

that h<; wouldn't be in. "You take 

over, Henry," he says. Ha? 

The afternoon was just one foul-up after 

another. A b11tch of invoices had to be done 

over, wrong discounts. A Big Customer wires 

from Boston about his Urgent order-which 

turned up in the Baltimore freight depot. The 

bank has a tizzy, dealer's check bounced. The 

office air conditioning went flooey. Fooey ! 

And at4:40p.m., DST, there is wild wail 

from Mrs. Duchy, the Old Man's secretary. 

Our stamp box is bare. Daffy, the new girl, 

had forgotten to buy stamps. 

Some crisis!Everybody is scheduled to 

get away early on the weekend. 

So who hotfoots through the sun baked 

streets? And stands in line with all the p~rcel 

mailers in the stifling postoffice? And tries to 

keep the stamp .sheets from gumming on the 

way back? And sticks stamps on every last 

blasted envelope? Don't answer! 

Monday bright and early, I phone the 

Pitney-Bowes place, and tell them, "You 

send up one of those baby postage meters, 

and I'll see that it stays here." 

And the Old Man didn't even argue. 

.· Tlii~re's-no argument about it! With the 

DM, the smallest office can have metered 

mail-and get rid of old fashioned stamps. 

W1rn the D M, you print postage as you 

need it, for any kind of mail, directly on the. 

envelope (or on special tape for parcel post). 

With the meter stamp, you can print your 

own small advertisement, if you like. There's 

a moistener for sealing envelopes. 

The postoffice sets the meter for as much 

postage as you want to buy. Postage in a 

meter is safe from ioss, damage, theft-and 

automatically accounted for, shows on visible 

registers. Metered mail, already postmarked, 

can get away faster in the postoffice. 

Anybody can learn to 

use a postage meter. It's 

a great time saver-and 

postage saver. 

There's a postage 

meter, electric or hand 

operated, for every 

office, large or small. 

Ask the nearest PB 

office to show you. Or 

send the coupon. 

FREE: Handy wall chart of Postal 

Rates for all classes of mail. wllh 

parcel post map and zone finder. 

,g,. PITNEY-BOWES 

~Postage 

w_Meter 

PITNEY-BOWES, {NC. 

0 ffices in 93 cities in U.S. and Canada 

2805 PACIFIC ST., STAMFORD, CONN, 

Please send free D booklet, ·o wall chart to: 

Fir"'------------------

Address---------------
:ore· 

1ad, 

and 

wer 

nkade 

oil. 

~ of 

REF ID:A39485 

/ THE SATURDAY EVENING POST :~ ii 

Junc·27, 1953 

(Continued from Page 61) Russians fought the last war with since Soviet petroleum output has now 

the state is always invested and re- American arms; Lend-Lease mainly been brought up to 60,000,000 tons per 

invested to increase the state's crude aided the Kremlin not with arms, but year by restoring the Baku wells and 

military strength. with transport equipment and raw ma- opening new oil fields beyond the Urals. 

It is often asked; "How does anyone terials. Since the war, the production Those who still rely on poor transport 

know the Soviets are producing so of arms, the strengthening of the armed or deficient petroleum to hamstring the 

many atomic bombs, or tanks, or air- forces, the steady buildup of a power- · Kremlin are like the British and Amerplanes, or whatever?" The answer is ful military supporting structure have icanexperts who said Hitler could make 

partly secret, although much can be been the highest object!! of the Krem- war for only eight months because of 

learned by careful analysis of pub- lin's policy. the German oil shortage. 

lished data. At any rate the test of As we ourselves saw in the war pe- And while these problems have been 

events has shown that the estimates riod, a high level of military spending so energetically tackled, the lion's 

are reliable. Or rather this test has need not halt and may even stimulate share of Soviet national income has alshown that Western intelligence es_ti- an upward surge of national income ways been and is still being invested 

mates of Soviet military-industrial ac- and productivity. As the steel figures for the same purposes covered in· our 

complishments always tend to 13rr on indicate, Soviet national income has . own Pentagon and Atomic Energy 

the side of optimism, because of failure risen rapidly and continuously through- Commission budgets. In the years 

to realize that the people's misery is out the postwar years. The best British 1949-50, at least 30 per cent of Soviet 

the state's strength. and American authorities put the rate national income was absorbed. by the 

For example, the year 1952 was of rise at between 9 and 10 per cent per military effort; direct and. indirect. 

officially supposed to be the earliest annum, compounded. The main result Since 1950, this sha.re has been a full 

date for the explosion of the people's has been a continuously increasing 40 per cent. By contrast, American 

democratic atomic bomb. The Joint Soviet military effort. postwar defense and atomic spending 

Chiefs of Staff used to ridicule this date The people, the consumers, have of has dropped as low as 6 per cent of nathat was given in their own planning course been thrown some sops, in the tional income, and is now running at 

papers~ As late as September, 1949, so form of more and cheaper food, goods about 16 per cent; 

sound an expert as Dr. Vannevar Bush and services. When the starting point What do these figures mean in reactually had in print a "more realistic" is almost absolute misery-as those ality? You cannot get at the. truth by 

prediction that the Soviets would not who have been in internment camps studying the Soviet budget, since the 

be able to build their first bomb before will recognize-small improvements Kremlin rigs all prices in favor of the 

1964. Doctor Bush had to· revise his give a vital sense of increasing well- armed services. But go back to the steel 

book in proof, and the Joint Chiefs had being. And while the secret police still base and you can work it out for yourto revise their thinking rather thor- enjoy their privileges and wield their self. In effect, American defense spendoughly, when the Soviet atomic explo~ machine guns, the ,people's misery is ing now amounts to 16 per cent of a 

sion occurred that September of 1949. not likely to make trouble-it will only national income, proportional to 117,-

Again, until· Korea, our own diffi- go on providing surpluses-for the 500,000 tons of steel. Soviet military 

culties with jet engines led to a con- Kremlin. · · spending currently amounts to 40 per 

fident official assumption that Soviet Then, too, the historic weak spots in cent .of an empire-wide income proporjet-engine output must be very low in the Russian economy have been but- tional to 49,000,000 tons of steel. Sixquantity and very poor in quality. tressed by lavish investments, in every- teen per cent of 117.5 is less than 40 per 

Then a MIG-15 engine was captured thing from aluminum production-to cent of 49. If we.merely wished to equal 

in Korea. It was found to incorporate be expanded no less than 2.5 times by the Soviet investment of manpower 

brilliant improvements, in engineering 1955-to Soviet technical and scien- and materials, we should have to into give strength and in design to give tific education-already producing an crease our defense appropriations to 

thrust, which we had lacked the know- annual crop of physicists, chemists, around $60,000,000,000 this year. 

_how to devi8e. . engineers and other militarily valuable But here the rule of the people's . ~-Tliere iS aii-autlieritfo account, tola-oy--specialists--de-ciaedly4argerthan -our misery--p111ys--its-1ast- trick -on---iis:-An·--=--· 

an eyewitness who later defected; of , crop in America. In ·particular, the enormous share of every American dehow the Soviet tank designers took their Trans-Siberian Railway has been fully fense dollar goes to pay and maintain· 

troubles to Stalin in the mid-1930's. double-tracked and otherwise greatly our uniformed personnel. We use more 

They told him the familiar story of all improved. Two more trans-Asiatic lines than 60,000 men to form and support a 

tank designers, that superior speed, are well along toward their completion division in the field. The Soviet diviarmor and fire power could not be com- date in 1955. Important new truck sional slice is hardly more than 24,000 

bined in. a single tank. Stalin, in effect, production has been built up, in step men. TheKremlinnotonlyinvestsmore 

replied, "Give me all three or you go with the mechanization of the Red materials and manpower than we do, 

to Siberia." The result of this ruthless- Army. And there will be fuel for these the Kremlin's investment also earns up 

ness was the famous Soviet Tc34, far new trucks and for the Red Air Force, (Continued on.Page 66) 

and away the best medium tank of the · 

last war, which we did not really equal .-----------------------------------. 

until 1950. 

The postwar steel figures show how 

such methods pay off for the Kremlin; 

In 1945, Soviet steel production was 

hardly more than 12,000,000 tons per 

year. In 1948, war damage had been 

repaired; expansion had begun, and 

the SOviet ste~l base was about 20,~ 

000,000 tons. This year Russian steel 

capacity has reached 39,000,000 tons, 

while the Soviet empire as a whole now 

has a steel base of no less than 49,000,-

000 tons. In two more years the Soviet 

imperial steel base is expected to be 

'close to 60,000,000 tons, or more than 

the combined steel capacities of Western Europe and the British Isles. 

Many people-Aneurin Bevan and 

Treasury Secretary George Humphrey 

to name just two - are comfortably 

convinced that America's 117,500,000 

tons of steel capacity still gives the West 

a safe superiority. But here, again, the. 

misery of the people enters in. What 

you use steel for can matter much inore 

than how much steel you have. 

Even in 1945, with the West Russian 

steel plants still in ruins, Soviet war 

industry is authoritatively credited 

with turning out 120;000 pieces of 

artillery of all calibers, 110,000 mortars, 

450,000 machine guns, 30,000 tanks 

and a vast panoply of other weapons. 

It is another American illusion that the 

' "Oh, I don't mind. After all, she helps me make the beds." 

THE SATURDAY EVENING POST 
REF ID:A39485 

rvRDAY ~G POST 

(Cmtinued from Page 64) detailsofMalenkov'sachievement. But 

to twice the return of finished military these are quite enough to give distastepower. So if we wished to equal the ful food for thought. 

Soviet fighting force in being, we should . The first interception or an American 

have to increase our defense budget to reconnaissance aircraft on the Soviet 

something like $120,000,000,000 thiS air borders occurred off Siberia, as long 

year. ago as 1949. Since then, interceptions 

Such are the techniques, then, which have been frequent; and as everyone 

enable the Kremlin to maintain a peace- will recall, some American planes actime power that we could haJ:dly. pul tually have been shot down. By now the 

into the field in wartime-175 Red Soviet air defenses are rated as both 

Army divisions, more than 60 divisions dense and elaborate, being built around 

in the European satellites, 3,500,000 an extensive radar net and a special 

men in the Chinese communist armies, home-defense force of between 3500 

a Red Air Force of 20,000 planes, a and 4000 MIG-15's. 

M Chinese Air Force that may have Since the MIG-15 is a day fighter depassed.2000 planes, a Red Navy that is pending on guidance from ground 

larger than the British Navy, and so on. radar, the existing Soviet air defenses 

Such are the methods by which the are still thought to be too weak for a 

Kremlin is now driving toward its united·attack by our B-50's, B-47's and 

ominous goals for 1955, unaltered since B-36's, flying in from all quarters. But0 

Stalin's death, of a Red Air Force at our twenty-odd groups of mediumleast half again larger than our own, ·range B-50's and B-47's are dependent 

and a staggering total of 6,000,000men on allied bases overseas, which are 

under arms in Russia alone. bound to grow less and less dependable 

In truth, the grim trick of building as the shadow of crude Soviet power 

the strength of the state on the misery darkly lengthens. Our seven longof the people now amounts to a Soviet range groups of B-36's, which are the 

secret weapon which is doing more to backbone of our Strategic Air Comtilt the world power balance decisively mand, are already rated as obsolescent, 

against us than the mere growth of the with no early replacements in sight. 

Kremlin's atomic stock. While our total And the B-36's will be altogether obsoproductivity is still much greater than lete when and if the MlG-15's are reSoviet productivity, we have already placed with a night and all-weather 

been surpassed in the military-indus- fighter carrying its own built-in radar 

trial ·effort. And the misery of the tracking equipment. 

Soviet peoples is ·still creating state This gives sharp interest to an incisurpluses. The surpluses are still being dent .of last summer. A Navy patrol 

invested to build more strength. And plane. was intercepted in thick cloud 

no one can foretell where this process cover over the Black Sea and tracked, 

may end. still through solid soup, all the way 

This does not mean the Kremlin across Turkey to Cyprus. The concluplanners do not have their troubles. sion was obvious, that this could have 

Indeed some experts think they are al- been done only by an all-weather 

ready running head on into the most fighter with built-in tracking radar. 

intractable problems of any system But the Air Force did not wish to draw 

- ~ ~founqed-on-tAe~people~EJ...,misery.':7 not.,..the_oJ>yJmis~~..QllJllu:Pon .. ,'!liere=~~ti~ ~-- __ ~ 

enough food for the growing industrial- typical interservice intelligence hassle: · 

labor force and expanding armed serv- The hassle ended in a typical interserv- · 

ices, owing to a brutalized agriculture; ice intelligence compromise-an agreeand shortage of labor, owing to poor ment that the Soviets do not now have 

man-hour productivity, which is caus- an all-weather fighter, but will have 

ing the Kremlin to import huge slave one soon. 

gangs from the inexhaustible manpower Even if you accept this Alice-inpool of China. But these troubles of the Wonderland logic, the trend ~ still 

Kremlin planners are a mighty poor plain. The American Strategic Air 

consolation when we look at the con- Command,olirmaindetarrentofSoviet 

tinuing growth curve of Soviet strength.; aggressior.i, is already losing some of 

More particularly they are a poor con- its deterrent value. Unless strong steps 

solation .when we consider the special are taken to match the buildup of the 

·aspect of the Soviet growth process Soviet air defenses with continuing imwhich is .the· third element in the great provemen'1; of American long-range 

strategic revolution of our time. striking power, the deterrent may beThe development of weapons systems come dangerously ineffectual. 

which can reach from continent to Even more significantly, the Soviet 

continent is thought by most of us to strategic air arm began regular reconbe another American monopoly. We naissance of our own air borders someare confident-perhaps too confident- time last summer. ,Regular recon misof the power of our own Strategic Air sions have been flown from the KamForce. But we are unable to imagine chatkan and Soviet Arctic bases, over 

that any other air force can ever strike Alaska, Northern Canada and Greenacross our ocean moats. land- because of our big Thule base 

Not so the Kremlin, whose mili- there. None of.these missions has been 

tary thinking and order of priorities intercepted. Almost none has been 

are plainly suggested by two simple radar-spotted. Indeed we should hardly 

facts. As is well known, Lavrenti Beria, know that Malenkov's strategic bombwho now stands second in the Kremlin ers were testing our continental aphierarchy, was made the overlord of proaches, if the high-flying Soviet 

the Soviet atomic program as soon as planes did not leave their vapor trails 

the last war ended. As is hardly known behind them. 

at all, Georgi Malenkov, Stalin's This Soviet impunity, which conchief heir, was simultaneously made trasts so strikingly with our own exthe overlord of Soviet aircraft and periences on the Soviet air approaches, 

guided-missile development and pro- is hardly surprising. Ouroverpublicized 

duction, of the Soviet air defense sys- radar fence is nowhere near the contem and of the Soviet strategic air arm. tinental approaches, being much too 

To Malenkov was given the job of pre- close in to give long warning, and full of 

venting the absolute weapons from holes to boot. As for our defending 

being delivered to Russian targets, and fighter force, · it theoretically coinof gaining the power to deliver those prises twenty-nine groups,. or about 

weapons to targets overseas. · 2200 planes in all. But some of the 

Official secrecy, American as well as groups do not exist. Almost all the 

Soviet, cloaks all but a few significant planes are at least obsolescent. Some 
are even useless radial-engined fighters 

left over from the last' war. Current 

all"weather~fighter production is shockingly low. 

Meanwhile, as may be inferred from 

the Soviet air reconnaissance of this 

continent, Malenkov's strategic air 

arm has been gaining strength. At present it is still built around 1000 TU-4's, 

the improved copy of a captured B-29 

which is comparable to our B-50. Like 

most of our' own strategic aircraft, the 

TU-4 · lacks. intercontinental two-way 

range. The Soviets also lack the chain 

of advance bases on allied soil which 

substan.tially improve our capability. 

Yet Gen. Hoyt S. Vandenberg himself has repeatedly warned us that the 

TU-4's may well be used for one-way 

sacrifice missions. Or the TU-4's may 

be saved, and far cheaper yet far deadlier planes may be sacrificed, if Malenkov exploits the curious aerodynamic 

possibility of the TU-4's carrying small 

jet bombers under their wings, in a 

* * * * * * * * * * 

PORTRAIT 

OF A HANDY MAN 

By Elias Liebernaan 

He helps repair the easy chait0 We just bought on deposit; 

He fixes locks and hells and 

Clocks, 

He paints the kitchen closet; 

He waxes floors, sandpapers 

doors 

And mends defective wiring; 

No job is barred. He works so 

hard 

That he has me perspiring. 

Our house complains from i;oof ·to 

gi·ound · 

When Al forgets to come around! 

* * * * * * * * * * 

sort of reversed piggyback.· Or the 

range of the TU-4's can be greatly extended by air refueling, an expedient 

weourselvesheavilyrelyon. Or, finally, 

the TU-4's that are now coming off 

the production line can be turned into 

avionic guided missiles - pilotless aircraft with full long-range guidance. 

There are excellent reasons to suspect that the Soviets may be using CUrrent TU~4 output in precisely this way, 

which is definitely known to be feasible. 

TU-4' s transformed into avionic guided 

mi!jsiles will have no range problem. 

In addition, there are good reasons to 

think that the Soviets may be building 

a new born ber of the size and range of 

our B-36, with turbo-jet engines to 

give improved performance. 

The meaning of all these depressing 

but fragmentary facts cannot be accu" 

rately assessed by laymen. But all the 

known facts have long been· under 

. study by the most impressive scientific 

task force that has ever been assembled 

in this country for such a purpose. This 

is Project· Lincoln, sponsored by the 

Air Force and directed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. For 

two years Lincoln has absorbed nearly 

half of MIT's very great technical and 

scientific resources, as well as employing a horde of the most eminent special 

consultants. Last fall Lincoln made 

its preliminary report. THE SATURDAY 

EVENING POST has already given the 

public the hopeful Lincoln finding, that 

a truly effective American air-defense 

system can now be built, although at 

great cost, . by taking advantage of 

REF ID:A39485 

THE SATU~VENING POST "•;"" 

certain "technological break-throughs." 

Lincoln's other findings, which are the 

very opposite ofhopeful, may be briefly 

summariZed as follows: 

First, the existing and presently 

planned American air-defense system 

is hopelessly weak. If it achieves 10 per 

cent of interception of al). attacking 

force, it will be doing wonders. 

Second, the Soviets will have both 

the atomic bombs and the long-range 

air power to deliver a massive intercontinental attack within about two 

years.· 

Third, therefore, this country will 

be nakedly exposed to air-atomic 

"devastation" by the Kremlin within 

two years, unless immediate countermeasures are taken. 

We may hope the Lincoln time 

schedule is pessimistic. Certain respectable authorities argue that the 

tiine of total danger will not come for 

three or four years. But this is the only 

honest qualification. It is frivolous to 

dismiss the Lincoln ffudings with the 

phrase, "The offense is the best defense," espe_cially when our own·offensive power is weakening. It is downright shocking to mock Project Lincoln 

for advocating an "air Maginot Line," 

especially when our o\vn military plans 

concede to the Kremlin the inestimable 

privilege of striking the first blow, 

which may itself prove decisive. These 

current Pentagon clicMs are mere 

frightened evasions of the hard and 

central fact, that o.nly the greatest and 

most urgent American e.fforts can now 

prevent this ~ountry from coming 

within easy; direct range of SOviet 

air-atomic power. If and when that 

day.comes, the grand strategic revolution · of our time will be tragically 

complete. . 

Nor can we be certain that day will, 

not come: even if.we now lay out five~ 

or six billion dollars a year for new and 

better air defenses. There is still the 

next phase to think about-the phase 

of long-range guided missiles. The atmospheric missile, ram-jet-powered 

and flying in the high supersonic speeds, 

will be all but impossible to ~tercept. 

There is no known way to intercept the 

ballistic missile - the two-stage rocket 

like a huge, doubled-up V-2, flying at 

near planetary speeds outside the 

earth's atmosphere, which is thought 

to be the end of this particular road of 

weapons development. 

An American ind u8trialist with direct 

responsibility has recently given tlie 

considered opinion that this country 

could have a ballistic missile within 

five year;;, by a special effort on the pattern of the Manhattan District Project. 

In practice, he added, "God knows 

when it will be," since these huge and 

terrible birds are immensely costly, 

and our long-range-missile projects are 

now lumped in with twenty-four other· 

projects for missiles of short · and 

medium range, with a total annual appropriation of about $1,000,000,000. 

Meanwhile; the Soviets are believed to 

have been making an all-out effort to 

develop an intercontinental missile ever 

since the end of the last war. 

SOme experts therefore forecast a 

Soviet ballistic missile by 1957 or 1958. 

Others think this forecast is unduly 

pessimistic. Yet the Joint Chiefs of 

Staff held a long and anxious emergency 

meeting, not long ago, for the curious 

reason ·that a meteor fell in the South-

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~ 

the Joint Cl)iefs do not think the i)essimists are absolutely touched in the 

head. 

It is already very late to try to cope 

with the remorseless strategic revolution in the midst of which we live. But 

it is not too late, if all the incredible 

resources of American ingenuity and 

American productivity are mobilized 

for this purpose. We still have freedom 

of choice. In order to choose wisely, we 

must first face the facts set forth above, 

which have not been faced. Arid when 

we have squarely faced the unpleasant 

facts, we must then seek honest answers 

to some hard questions. 

Suppose, first of all, that the Kremlin "will never willingly make war on 

the United States," as so many people 

believe. The Kremlin's intentions really 

may not be directly aggressive. But 

what will be the situation if the Kremlin merely has the capability of "devastating" this country by air-atomic 

attack? 

Was not British policy paralyzed by 

the far milder specter. of Hitler's Luftwaffe, until a cornered and enfeebled 

Britain had to fight a war of despair? 

What will happen to American policy, 

when it is known that America can be 

destroyed by an order from the Kremlin? Shall we then respond to the challenge, if there is another aggression like 

Korea? Or if we do not respond to the 

challenge, what of the resulting crumbling of the Western alliance; the in~ 

evitable game of .devil take the hindmost throughout the whole free 

world? How shall we feel as superMunich is succeeded by super-Munich, 

while we rage at our own impotence 

and wonder when our turn will come? 

Will it be a consolation then, that the 

Kremlin has not "made war on the 

United States"? 

So far, the hard~questions ~answer 

themselves. But suppose we make the 

enormous efforts that are needed to 

achieve a truly mutual "peace of mutual terror" in Sir Winston Churchill's 

phrase. What will be the situation 

then? 

fatuous incapacity of resistance to aggression. We should endeavor to come 

to. a settlement with them before they 

become possessed of this devastating 

power .... " 

And in another speech made a little 

earlier in 1950, the great old man spoke 

out even_ ~ore clearly: 

"Moralists may find it a melancholy 

thought that peace can find no nobler 

foundations than mutual terror. But 

for my part, I shall be content if these 

foundations are solid, because they will 

give us the extra time and the new 

breathing space for the supreme effort 

which has to be made for a world settle-

-ment .... But if there is a breathing 

space, if there is more time, it would be 

a grave mistake to suppose that this 

interlude will last forever, or even last 

more than a few years ..... 

'' Man iii this moment of his history 

has emerged in greater supremacy 

over the forces of nature than has ever 

been dreamed of before . . . There lies 

before him, if he wishes, a golden age 

of peace and progress. He has only to 

conquer his last and worst enemy, himself. With vision, faith and courage, it 

may still be in our power to win· a 

crowning victory for all·." 

Read these words of Churchill 

closely. They are no , mere call for 

negotiation a~ any cost. They are a call 

to take risks, perhaps very great risks, 

to make . negotiation succeed. Then 

against the words of Churchill, lay 

the words of Stalin which are still the 

leitmotiv of Soviet policy, although 

the dead dictator spoke them when he 

was a mere youth, arguing communist 

tactics in the abortive Russian revolution of 1905. Said Stalin: "What do we 

need in order to win? First, arms; second, arms; third, arms and arms 

again!,,. Stalin's question and answer 

darkly underline Churchill's noble plea 

and warning. 

To these add the splendid vision of a 

true world settlement, that President 

Eisenhower so movingly offered in his 

first full-dress speech on foreign policy. 

Then you have the full commentary on 

the third alternative-the fearfully 

risky, painful and dangerous but perhaps fruitful, perhaps necessary effort 

to get a settlement-if need be, to 

force through a settlement-while 

there is still time to do so. This is the 

moment, while the new Soviet regime is 

still rendered malleable by internal 

rivalry, and while we are still able to 

negotiate without the fatuous incapacity that Churchill warned against. 

If this opportunity slips by, there may 

not be another. · THE END 

0 

Will it be tolerable, for example, 

when the two giant powers both possess 

intercontinental guided missiles with 

atomic or hydrogen warheads? When 

both halves of the world exist in a state 

of permanent, twenty-four-hour alert? 

When in both Washington and Moscow hands are always hovering above 

a push button that may destroy 

civilization, and a mistake about a 

meteor may cause the button to be 

pushed? Can a free society adjust itself 

to such conditions? 

The Role I Liked Best ••• 

These questions may seem to answer 

themselves, like .the others. But reflect 

for a moment on the alternatives to the 

"peace of mutual terror." One alterria-

.tive is the still-faint possibility, that 

grows fainter with each further tilt of 

the world power balance, that somehow, sometime, something or other will 

halt the revolution of our time. Relying 

on this alternative out-Micawbers Mr. 

Micawber. Another alternative is surrender. Needless to say, this alternative is not to be considered. The third 

alternative is that which was hinted at 

by Churchill in the same remarkable 

House of Commons speech about the 

Soviet atomic bomb that has been 

quoted already. He then said: 

"In three or four years the Soviets 

will have a sufficient supply of these 

bombs to cause a major catastrophe at 

any time they so decide .... I think it 

very much better that we should make 

a resolute effort to come to a settlement 

with them by peaceful means, but on 

the basis of strength and not of weakness, on the basis of success and not of 

By MAUREEN o•suI.LIVAN 

I

'LL never forget my first day of 

rehearsal for the role of Henrietta in The Barretts of Wimpole 

Street. I bounced onto the 8et 

with all my youth showing, but 

without having memorized a - single one of my lines. If a little 

knowledge is a dangerous 'thing, 

I was dynamite that day. 

To make my embarrassment 

complete, the two stars of the 

picture, Norma Shearer and 

Charles Laughton, were letterperfect in their lines. I wonder 

now that I wasn't quietly dropped 

from the picture. 

However, from thiei bad beginning came a good ending. As the 

picture progressed, I not only 

learned my lines but also learned to 

love my part. I liked Henrietta's 

spirit and her reactions. I liked 

the Victorian settings and costumes. And, of course, it was wonderful to beina picture with Norma 

Shear.er and Charles Laughton. 

Both were exceptionally nice to me. Each afternoon, in those more 

relaxed days of movie making, 

we'd stop work and have eggnogs 

in Norma Shearer's dressing 

room. Afterward, Norma and I 

usually were in a giggling mood, 

and once the· chop whiskers 

Charles Laughton wore for the 

picture seemed irresistibly funny 

to us. Charles was very cross with us that afternoon, but he soon 

forgave us. We worked hard on the picture, 

but we still found time for fun. 

Once, when no one could get 

Flush, the dogin the picture, into 

proper position, director Sidney 

Franklin turned to me. "You've 

handled plenty of animals in the 

Tarzan pictures," he said. " Can 

·you fix Flush?" 

I couldn't coax Flush into position, so I upheld the honor of 

Tarzan by picking him up bodily 

and putting him in the right spot.