{"id":143552,"date":"2020-07-31T15:36:00","date_gmt":"2020-07-31T19:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/?migration=converted-node-463252"},"modified":"2023-07-26T15:59:15","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T19:59:15","slug":"nasa-sun-data-helps-new-model-predict-big-solar-flares","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/missions\/sdo\/nasa-sun-data-helps-new-model-predict-big-solar-flares\/","title":{"rendered":"NASA Sun Data Helps New Model Predict Big Solar Flares"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Using data from NASA\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/nasa.gov\/sdo\" rel=\"noopener\">Solar Dynamics Observatory<\/a>, or SDO, scientists have developed a new model that successfully predicted seven of the Sun\u2019s biggest flares from the last solar cycle, out of a set of nine. With more development, the model could be used to one day inform forecasts of these intense bursts of solar radiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As it progresses through its natural 11-year cycle, the Sun transitions from periods of high to low activity, and back to high again. The scientists focused on X-class flares, the most powerful kind of these solar fireworks. Compared to smaller flares, big flares like these are relatively infrequent; in the last solar cycle, there were around 50. But they can have big impacts, from disrupting radio communications and power grid operations, to \u2013 at their most severe \u2013 endangering astronauts in the path of harsh solar radiation. Scientists who work on modeling flares hope that one day their efforts can help mitigate these effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Led by Kanya Kusano, the director of the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research at Japan\u2019s Nagoya University, a team of scientists built their model on a kind of magnetic map: SDO\u2019s observations of magnetic fields on the Sun\u2019s surface. Their results were published in <em><a href=\"https:\/\/science.sciencemag.org\/content\/369\/6503\/587\" rel=\"noopener\">Science<\/a><\/em> on July 30, 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n<div id=\"\" class=\"hds-media hds-module wp-block-image\"><div class=\"margin-left-auto margin-right-auto nasa-block-align-inline\"><div class=\"hds-media-wrapper margin-left-auto margin-right-auto\"><figure class=\"hds-media-inner hds-cover-wrapper hds-media-ratio-none \"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2048\" height=\"2048\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?w=2048\" class=\"attachment-2048x2048 size-2048x2048\" alt=\"A satellite image shows the Sun colorized in gold and purple. A bright white burst of light shines in the upper left part of the Sun.\" style=\"transform: scale(1); transform-origin: 50% 50%; object-position: 50% 50%; object-fit: cover;\" block_context=\"nasa-block\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg 4096w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=150,150 150w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=300,300 300w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=768,768 768w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=1024,1024 1024w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=1536,1536 1536w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=2048,2048 2048w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=50,50 50w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=100,100 100w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=200,200 200w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=400,400 400w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=600,600 600w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=900,900 900w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=1200,1200 1200w, https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?resize=2000,2000 2000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" loading=\"eager\" \/><\/a><\/figure><figcaption class=\"hds-caption padding-y-2\"><div class=\"hds-caption-text p-sm margin-0\">An X-class solar flare flashes on the edge of the Sun on March 7, 2012. This image was captured by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory and shows a type of light that is invisible to human eyes, called extreme ultraviolet light.<br>Download this image from NASA Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio.<\/div><div class=\"hds-credits\"><strong><em>Credits: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center\/SDO<\/em><\/strong><\/div><\/figcaption><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s well-understood that flares erupt from hot spots of magnetic activity on the solar surface, called active regions. (In visible light, they appear as sunspots, dark blotches that freckle the Sun.) The new model works by identifying key characteristics in an active region, characteristics the scientists theorized are necessary to setting off a massive flare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first is the initial trigger. Solar flares, especially X-class ones, unleash huge amounts of energy. Before an eruption, that energy is contained in twisting magnetic field lines that form unstable arches over the active region. According to the scientists, highly twisted rope-like lines are a precursor for the Sun\u2019s biggest flares. With enough twisting, two neighboring arches can combine into one big, double-humped arch. This is an example of what\u2019s known as magnetic reconnection, and the result is an unstable magnetic structure \u2013 a bit like a rounded \u201cM\u201d \u2013 that can trigger the release of a flood of energy, in the form of a flare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Where the magnetic reconnection happens is important too, and one of the details the scientists built their model to calculate. Within an active region, there are boundaries where the magnetic field is positive on one side and negative on the other, just like a regular refrigerator magnet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s similar to an avalanche,\u201d Kusano said. \u201cAvalanches start with a small crack. If the crack is up high on a steep slope, a bigger crash is possible.\u201d In this case, the crack that starts the cascade is magnetic reconnection. When reconnection happens near the boundary, there\u2019s potential for a big flare. Far from the boundary, there\u2019s less available energy, and a budding flare can fizzle out \u2013 although, Kusano pointed out, the Sun could still unleash a swift cloud of solar material, called a coronal mass ejection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kusano and his team looked at the seven active regions from the last solar cycle that produced the strongest flares on the Earth-facing side of the Sun (they also focused on flares from part of the Sun that is closest to Earth, where magnetic field observations are best). SDO\u2019s observations of the active regions helped them locate the right magnetic boundaries, and calculate instabilities in the hot spots. In the end, their model predicted seven out of nine total flares, with three false positives. The two that the model didn\u2019t account for, Kusano explained, were exceptions to the rest: Unlike the others, the active region they exploded from were much larger, and didn\u2019t produce a coronal mass ejection along with the flare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cPredictions are a main goal of NASA\u2019s Living with a Star program and missions,\u201d said Dean Pesnell, the SDO principal investigator at NASA\u2019s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, who did not participate in the study. SDO was the first Living with a Star program mission. \u201cAccurate precursors such as this that can anticipate significant solar flares show the progress we have made towards predicting these solar storms that can affect everyone.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While it takes a lot more work and validation to get models to the point where they can make forecasts that spacecraft or power grid operators can act upon, the scientists have identified conditions they think are necessary for a major flare. Kusano said he is excited to have a promising first result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI am glad our new model can contribute to the effort,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>By\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><em><strong>Lina Tran<\/strong><\/em><br><strong><em>NASA\u2019s\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/nasa.gov\/goddard\" rel=\"noopener\"><em><strong>Goddard Space Flight Center<\/strong><\/em><\/a><strong><em>, Greenbelt, Md.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Using data from NASA\u2019s Solar Dynamics Observatory, or SDO, scientists have developed a new model that successfully predicted seven of the Sun\u2019s biggest flares from the last solar cycle, out of a set of nine. With more development, the model could be used to one day inform forecasts of these intense bursts of solar radiation. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":126,"featured_media":151986,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nasa_hds_core_meta_l10n":"en-US","nasa_hds_core_meta_article_editor":"","nasa_hds_core_meta_article_contacts":[],"nasa_hds_core_meta_article_topic":"","nasa_hds_core_meta_linked_locations":[],"nasa_hds_core_meta_article_related_articles":[],"hds_migrate_meta_pr_release_id":"","hds_migrate_meta_pr_release_type":"","nasa_hds_core_meta_location_x":"","nasa_hds_core_meta_location_y":"","nasa_hds_core_meta_gallery_images":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[2837,2774,10795,9480,11310],"news-tags":[],"internal-terms":[10596],"coauthors":[],"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"NASA Sun Data Helps New Model Predict Big Solar Flares","url":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/missions\/sdo\/nasa-sun-data-helps-new-model-predict-big-solar-flares\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/missions\/sdo\/nasa-sun-data-helps-new-model-predict-big-solar-flares\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?w=150&h=150&crop=1","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg"},"articleSection":"Science & Research","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Vanessa Thomas"}],"creator":["Vanessa Thomas"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NASA","logo":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/themes\/nasa\/assets\/images\/nasa-logo.svg"},"keywords":["The Solar System","The Sun","Heliophysics","Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)","Solar Flares","Space Weather"],"dateCreated":"2020-07-31T19:36:00Z","datePublished":"2020-07-31T19:36:00Z","dateModified":"2023-07-26T19:59:15Z"},"rendered":"<meta name=\"parsely-title\" content=\"NASA Sun Data Helps New Model Predict Big Solar Flares\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-link\" content=\"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/missions\/sdo\/nasa-sun-data-helps-new-model-predict-big-solar-flares\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-type\" content=\"post\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-image-url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg?w=150&h=150&crop=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-pub-date\" content=\"2020-07-31T19:36:00Z\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-section\" content=\"Science & Research\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-tags\" content=\"The Solar System,The Sun,Heliophysics,Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO),Solar Flares,Space Weather\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-author\" content=\"Vanessa Thomas\" \/>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/nasa.gov\/p.js"},"read_time":4,"time_ago":"4 years","featured_image":{"id":151986,"file":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak.jpg","title":"03072012flare_classic_blend-tweak","alt":"A satellite image shows the Sun colorized in gold and purple. A bright white burst of light shines in the upper left part of the Sun.","caption":"An X-class solar flare flashes on the edge of the Sun on March 7, 2012. This image was captured by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory and shows a type of light that is invisible to human eyes, called extreme ultraviolet light."},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143552"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/126"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=143552"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143552\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":353285,"href":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143552\/revisions\/353285"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/151986"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=143552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=143552"},{"taxonomy":"news-tags","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news-tags?post=143552"},{"taxonomy":"internal-terms","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/internal-terms?post=143552"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=143552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}