Energy Conservation Standards forCommercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat PumpsANOPR Public MeetingNational Impact AnalysisBuilding Technologies ProgramOffice ofEnergy Efficiency and Renewable EnergyU.S. Department of EnergySeptember 30, 20042ANOPR Analyses Flow DiagramScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use &End-Use LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysesMarket &TechnologyAssessment3PurposeNational Impact Analysis•To estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from higherefficiencystandards levels.•To estimate the national economic impact on the nation (orthe Net PresentValue (NPV)) from higherefficiency standards levels.Shipments Analysis•To estimate commercial unitary air conditioner shipments over time.4ANOPR Issues forPublic CommentCandidate Standards Levels (ANOPR Issue #3)Effective Date of New Standards and Phaseout Date of R-22Refrigerant (ANOPR Issue #15)Maximum Market Share of Commercial Unitary Air-ConditioningEquipment (ANOPR Issue #12)Future Building Types using Commercial Unitary Air-Conditioningequipment (ANOPR Issue #13)5National Impact AnalysisExample of National Energy Savings Results:≥65,000 Btu/h and <135,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EERAnnualEnergySavings0.000.010.020.030.042008201120142017202020232026202920322035Year

Ene r gy Sa v i ngs ( Q ua ds )6National Impact AnalysisExample of Net Present Value Results:≥65,000 Btu/h and <135,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EERAnnualValues-$0.4-$0.3-$0.2-$0.1$0.0$0.1$0.2$0.3$0.42008201220162020202420282032203620402044204820522056Year

B illio n o f 2001$Operating CostSavingsEquipmentCostNetSavingsDiscountedAnnual Values-$0.4-$0.3-$0.2-$0.1$0.0$0.1$0.2$0.3$0.42008201220162020202420282032203620402044204820522056Year

B illio n of 2001 $Operating CostSavingsEquipmentCostNetSavingsNPV = $0.93billionat7%discountrate7National Impact AnalysisProcess FlowchartShipmentsModelNationalEnergySavingsNationalEconomicImpactsLCCAnalysisResults andOther InputsNationalEnergy Savings(Quads)NationalNet Present Value(2001 US $, billion)8National Impact AnalysisInputsTotal Installed Cost•Average per unit values asa function of efficiency level taken from LCC analysis•Future values are adjusted with efficiency trendsRepair and Maintenance Costs•Average per unit values asa function of efficiency level taken from LCC analysis•Future values are adjusted with efficiency trendsAnnual EnergyUse•Weighted-average per unit values as a functionof efficiency level taken from LCC analysis•Future values are adjusted with efficiency trendsEfficiencyTrends•Developed for the base case (without standards)and eachstandardscase•Future trends based upon historical shipment-weighted efficiency data for residential and commercial airconditioning equipment from ARIEnergyPrices•Weighted-average marginal prices taken from LCC analysis•Future marginal pricesare adjusted according totrend forecastedby the2003 Annual Energy OutlookElectricitySite-to-Source ConversionFactors•Conversion factors forecasted by2003 Annual Energy Outlook•Factors vary annually and account for generation, distribution, and transmission lossesDiscount Rate•7% and 3% real from OMB’s Regulatory Analysis Guideline A-4Present Year•Future expenses are discounted to the year 20019National Impact AnalysisInput Examples to the National Impact Analysis:Per Unit Total Installed Costs and Annual Energy UseAnnual Energy Use$6,000$7,000$8,000$9,000$10,000$11,000$12,000$13,000$14,0009.09.510.010.511.011.512.012.5EER

T o t al I n st al l e d C o s t p e r U n i t ( 200 1$)65-135kBtu/h135-240kBtu/hTotal InstalledCost1000015000200002500030000350009.09.510.010.511.011.512.012.5EER

Annua l Ene r gy Us e pe r Uni t ( k W h / y r )65-135kBtu/h135-240kBtu/h10National Impact AnalysisShipments ModelInputData Source/DescriptionCommercial BuildingDataForecasted New Construction: 2001-2025U.S. DOE-EIA,2003 Annual Energy OutlookHistorical Saturation: 1969-2000U.S. Census Bureau,Current Industrial Reports, Refrigeration, AirConditioning, and Warm Air Heating EquipmentReplacements driven by EquipmentLifetimeFrom Life-Cycle Cost Analysis(15 year median lifetime)Business IncomeBuilding Owners and Managers Association (BOMA) International,Historical Experience Exchange ReportsCalibration DataHistorical ShipmentsU.S. Census Bureau,Current Industrial Reports, Refrigeration, AirConditioning, and Warm Air Heating EquipmentHistorical New Construction:1980-2000U.S. Census Bureau,Statistical Abstract ofthe United States:2002Forecasted Stock: 2000-2025U.S. DOE-EIA,2003 Annual Energy OutlookHistorical Stock:1979-1999U.S. DOE,Commercial Building EnergyConsumption Survey(CBECS)Market Saturation Data (percent offloor space withunitarya/c)and ReplacementsPurchase Decision DataTotal Installed Cost, Annual OperatingCostFrom Life-Cycle Cost Analysis11IssuesMaximum SaturationofCommercial Unitary Air-Conditioning Equipment(ANOPR Issue #12)Saturation (or market penetration) is defined as the percent of commercialfloor space that uses commercial unitary air-conditioning equipment in therange of 65 to 240 kBtu/h.Historical shipments and market data indicate that the current marketpenetration is approximately 12 percent.The shipments model estimates a maximum saturation of 20 percent(orapproximately 10 percent for each equipment class).The Department seeks comments on its estimate of 10 percent as themaximum saturation for each equipment class.12IssuesFuture Building Types usingCommercial Unitary Air-Conditioning Equipment(ANOPR Issue #13)Future shipments depend in large part on growth in new commercial floorspace. The average growth rate of new construction is provided by theAnnual Energy Outlook.The shipments model used the new construction growth rate withoutdifferentiating by building type. If new commercial unitary airconditionershipments are preferentially installed in specific building types (e.g., retail oroffice), then the shipments forecasts may be altered.For the purpose of forecasting equipment shipments, the Departmentseeks comments on whether growth rates of individual buildingsshould be used rather than average new construction growth rates.13IssuesCandidate Standards Levels (ANOPR Issue #3)and Effective Date of New Standards and Phaseout Date ofR-22 Refrigerant (ANOPR Issue #15)The Department seeks comments on these standards scenarios.The Department seeks comments on whether the effective date forstandards should coincide with the phaseout of R-22.Candidate standard levels ranging from10.0 to 12.0 EER have been analyzed.The Department has also analyzed as a candidate standard level the efficiencylevels established by ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-1999.The Department has identified possible alternative standards scenarios including:(1) an effective date for standards that is coincident with the phaseout of refrigerantR-22 and (2) a two-tier standard (i.e., a moderate increase in the efficiencystandard with an early effective date followed by a more stringent standardeffective at a later date).14IssuesOther National Impact Analysis IssuesThe Department seeks comments and recommendations fromstakeholders on any other aspects related to the National ImpactAnalysis.15IssuesOther ANOPR IssuesThe Department seeks comments and recommendations fromstakeholders on any other aspects of the Commercial Unitary AirConditioner and Heat Pump ANOPR analyses.