.. 

REF ID:A39262 

This document consists of 

9 pages. 

This is ccw ~o. __ s_o_ 

SEE e 

$vcu1 llt l11f 01 mallon 

MANUAL 

FOR THE OPERATION OF THE 

ADC DDICATIONS BOARD 

Reproduction of this document in 

who1e or :l.n part is prohibited 

except rlth the permission of the 

of flce of or:l.g:l.n. 

of 100 copies.··· 

Ottice of 

THE DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF FOR INTELLIGENCE 

HEADQUARTERS, AIR DEFENSE 'COMMAND 

BREI: ....,, WeF11181f&11 

eclassified and a roved or release b NS on 09-04-2014 ursuantt E.O. 1352 
REF ID:A39262 

1ECREJ e 

Seeutil)· IRformati01 t 

This is a time of uneas7 peace and constant threat of var. In such 

a time, the Eaaential Elementa of Inf'ormtion -- WHO? WITH WHAT? WHER? 

FROM WHENCE? and TO WHERE? -- asSUE a poaiticm at paramount 1111portance 

to the Commander charged with the respansibilit7 for defemin action 

egainat Sllrprise air attack. 

bae particular EEI, :In inrn, are the 1n!aritance of the intelligence officer. 1'he7 become his business; the7 are the essential reason 

fer his protessicmal being. 

In the present case, WHO is sel:f'-ann01UJCed.; WI1'R WHAT 181 in 

general terna, salt-evident; FROM WHENCE can be reuumbl.7 deduced, 

but WHEN and TO lfiERE ranain the great :lmpoaderabl.ea'. The 11Indicationa 

B081'd• is an endeavor to selve an approach~ the prbblem of WHEN. 

'An:r corisideration of wm:tl ilm>lves, of necessit71 oomtan.t evaluation of the iDlications of :t;he 1mminenee of open hostilities, as well 

u o£ hostile air attack upon the United States. From its 1Dception, 

such 'evaluation 1B beset b7 d1f'ticult1es wh:lch are·pess1b]T uni<lll:• in 

th'9 ti1story ·or medera nrflN. These difficult~s, 1n themselves, 

are the product of Oomnmrd.st <b gma, ph110soplJ1' an:d approach to world 

dcm'nton. TheJ' work to Soriet advdage; theJ' are real d1tticulties. 

Th$ Jiaaaing 'of troops in critical border area; the 1110V8118Dt of air 

uni~ or naval. vessels; the stockpiling of supplies; sharp diploDBtic 

exch&nges -- these once classical indications of an in.c:reuing capabil1t7 and their constant emplOJ!118Dt 'b7 the USSR has created a permanent conditian of political and military tmsian which 1'.1.nds its best 

"expression :In the preface of the Intelligence .Advisory Committee's 

Weelcl7Watch Committee Report: 

•The m:fssion ot the Watch Committee is to collect, 

evaluate, analyze aid report :lndicatiam of SovietComnmniat inlientions of bosti1e action. In mal.1Bing ml'1'9llt indications 1 the Watch Conmd.ttee rec-· 

ognizes that the Soviet Arned Forces 1n being are 

in an lldv'amed state ot readiness for var and are 

capab1e of initiating ottensive operations with 

little or no waming.n · 

SEE 

S.CuritJ, lnfer111atlon 
REF ID:A39262 

• 

Secarity Inf or mMion 

'l'his ·statement is at onee a mco:!nct acknowledgement or the degree ot 

success ot Soviet deoeptian and a definiticm of the very core of the 

problem of ~? '"' · 

It 1s to this problem and its ·attendant inspired and milt-1n 

difficulties that DI, ADC bas applied the methodology discussed in 

this 'IUllMlal. 

THEORY .AND DEVELOP!l:NT 

OF THE nIDICATIORS SYSTEM 

The Commander, Air Defense CODllllBl'ld, has assigned high priority 

to tll~ ~ss•tia1 element of inf'ornatton WHEN. Therefore, the processing of :lntell:lgence items perta1n1ng to ·indicatiam thereof' 

becomes a critical ADC intelligence activit7. · It is' a bighlJ' complex 

intelligencti activ1t7 and conducted on a continuous 'basis. It is a 

permanent activ1t7. 

Precessing these intelligence items is :lntell:lgence preduction 

for a specif:l.c pirpose. The producticm et :l.ntel]jge:nee is not an 

exact snence. It cannot be. Intell~eace 1JI produced from basic 

situations 

:lnfo:rmatia. 

which 

and fragmentar,y 

are ccmstantq 

int.elligenee 

subject to 

itema 

change. 

deri:nd 

A ch~anic 

tl'ODl ~ 

lack 

ot ce:mpleteiiess l"equires a cat:bmal app-licati• ~ reasoning; induetive, aaduative and intuitive. An answer !& neoe8sa17• Therefore, 

the :t1n8.l product 18 farmed a the basis at logic and depends, 

inescapably; m the degree of perceptivenaaa Of the bmiv1do.al or 

group involved. · 

In practice, then, intelligence productiC:m. is permanently confronted by the perplsxl.t7 of fragmentary intelligence items and the 

hazards of human error. The factor of ti.me alcm.e--urgenq--f'orces 

the final product to be deriTed trom lmowlsdgeable im;erpolation of 

the available f'ragmentarr :lntelligence.itans applicable to the problem. ktrT mechanical device Vhich can sane to redn.ce these hazards is, 

the~tore, to be sought and develeped. Ia fact, all maj01" hwnaa 

enterprises are contnmted b7 the ne.ed for coratrel. of the items they 

deal in and .f'or t11a el.1n1natricm er lBHming of 1mman e1"J'Or. Devices 

such 'as check lists, stock listsb imrmtori.es, filing S1J!tems, charts, 

grapbs.11 usual illustration., are all forms of control, a11 designed 

to eliminate 11esawork md 1mllJlm error. · 

2 

.ae. 

5ecuAly lnfer1111!1fion 

I . 
REF ID:A39262 

BIT e ~ lafoRDllfon 

Intelligence item are usually controllsd b7 elaborate filing 

systems and indexes which act as refere:noes to reports vhich are 

habitual.:q tilsd out of sight and. trequentl.7 out ot mind. Visual assistance is rendered by bar graphs, p:l.e charts, animated maps and 

graphic presentations of rows of little mn, •chima, dollar marks, 

shocks or wheat or stacks or ingalis. All of these devices, when ap.. 

plied to the problem of' evaluating the mlicatioms of hostile a:tr 

attack upan the United States, assist in umeratanding an indiv:l.dnal 

indication. The7 do 11 however, f'all f'ar short of meeting the requ:frements of the problem aa a whole. The7 fail to ina1Jl"e coDli:lrm1t7 of 

thaaghli and action. The7 do not; create a composite picture. They do 

not :lndicate gemral or apecif':l.c trends in read:lq apparent terms. 

They-:do not present the inter-relationships of the iil.dicat1ona in 

reference to time an the basis of a continuma. They do not serve as 

a mechanical 11BDIDJ.'7e Jn the final 1D.alJBiS1 the7 aril nothing more 

than ·ah.oaks' of corn. · : 

'In approaching the apecitic problem of c0nt:roll1Dg and ana-

'.qzmg the :lnlicaticms at WHEN, it mat not onl7 be remenbered that 

the7 ·are a highl.;r CO!IJPlsX set of factors, bit that they 1111St be 

pres$nted in siJ.ch a mmmer that a Jvpothesis um be formed tor both 

purposes of projection md anticipation of required mtell:!gence and 

cOJllllBl'ld action. It this is not accomplished,· the· in\ticatian.s vlll 

have failed in practice tbe basic principles bpm 11h1ch the7 are establishad--m 1his case--prevention ot strateglc surprise and preserft.ticm 0£ the semrlty of the United States against 1iosti1e air 

attack. ' 

:rn establishing a 1t0rlcable &y'8tem ot v.laual control and malysia ·or the indications ot WHEN', DOS/I, .ADC approached the problem 

on the basis of' the follcnr.lng criteria: 

a. The 1.ndicat:l.cms mst be valid. 

b. The srstem lll.1St employ graphic presentation in 

a simple and reaclil71Dlderstandable marmer. 

·c. The dlnamica of the quantitative and qualitative de~ea of the :ind.iv.I.dual indications 111UBt: 

(1) Be presented :lD terms ot eval.uatlcm anti relative importance. 

(2) Be presented in relation to tlme cm the basis 

of a continuum. 

3 

BRET ~ lnbmalion 
REF ID:A39262 

DH 

SecuRlr. lafoRnafoll 

(3) Be presented both indi:v1duall7 and in relation 

to all other :Indications. 

d. The system must provide: 

(1) A key to the success or fallure of the collection 

eff art pertaining to a given :lu:licaticm. 

(2) A machanical "JllSJll017" in depth. 

(3) A :read7 reference mim: to the evaluated intelligence items applied to each indication. 

e. The s19tem of visual control and malJBis nmst 

present its product w.l. th a degree of accuracy . that will indicate the need. for :fbrther :fntelli- · gence aid commnd action befon that. need arises. 

f. It 1111St serve, iJa effect, as a daiq visual supplement to the Cllrrent Estimate ot the Situation. 

In order to satisfy' the plJ1sical requirements t:4 these criteria, 

DOS/I, ADC has procured ml modified a co11J11Sreial dev.tce Iman. as the 

ProduatNl Board. -Tb1a SJBt• is widely empl019d 1n :lndustr.r for 

purposes of preduoticm and 1.nvamoey cont; :ml. W"ith pl'Oper modification of a minor nainre 'this device 111.ll acoomodate 100 indicaticms. 

It will graph1call1' retl.ect in tems of color the evaluation given 

to :lntell:igence itms attecting each :Indication. It· will :m81ntain the 

specific evaluatian as lmg 88 required and w1ll portr&7 it m relationship to all other indicatians. It will accurately portrq trends 

and provide a buis for projection and anticipation of bath intelligence 

and CODlmld action.· 

DESCRIPTION OF 'lHE PRODUC'!'ROL BOARD 

AS PJDDIFIED FOR INTEIJ.mEHCE PURPOSES 

The basic Product:rol Boa.rd :Is a mechanical device used comnercial.q for projecting imges af vital facts from cu.rl'fllt records, md 

to provide a visual .portrayal. of values of performnce agalmt planned 

aoti6n1 f~ecasts er requirements. It m selected fer use in' the 

Indicaticms problem b~cause it presets tlree basic elements that are 

completely missing in the ordinary record 819tem--actien ia relatian 

to time 1 v.l.sual.11' portrayed. · 

.am .. Seuilr~ 

.. 
REF ID:A39262 

mm e 

S.:Uaitv Wermafio11 

The Board consists of two essential parts encased 1n a single 

frameJ the record panel md the chart or peg hols section. 

The record panel provides 100 :lndividual index pockets capable of accommodating standard sn x 811' record cards. The pockets are 

arranged 1:n. vertical order on the record panel which is att:lxed to 

the left hand aide of the second part of the Board. 

The chart,, or peg hols,, secticn accOllllllOdatea a title panel and 

a chart section. The en.tire chart secticn 1s compaaed ot precision 

drillsd·peg holes. A double row of these holes extends in horizontal 

order from the record aecticm. cm the left to the edge ot the chart 

on the right. Each double raw of peg holes is. a horizontal extemian 

of an indiv.ldual index pocket in the record section and is nunbered 

:In accordance with the m.uber of the index pocket. In the vertical 

order, each ·s~gle raw at peg holes is an extenaion ot a calendar 

date.posted at the top of the chart section. 

Thia basic device provides a reference to 100 subjects :filed :In 

the index pocket.a of the record panel and the relatibnabip of each 

ot these subjects to time. This relationsb:f.p :la reebrded by 118&118 

ot signal pegs of various colors which are inserted u applicable :In 

the proper peg hole in the chart secticm. Thus 1 in !nd:u&tl'T 1 ·when a 

step ·in an operation or an order is filed 1n the illiex pocket 1 or is 

sched11led to be complsted b;r a certain date 1 a colored sig11al peg is 

placed in the vertical date colum pertaining to that ol'der. ·This 

re.terence 18 further aupplelll9Dted b7 a flow tab which ·is ~o;yed to 

indicate progress or.supplemental 1.nf'ormat1m• By.co~ the record 

panel and chart section. with signal pegs and flow tabs 1 action is 

visual.q portrqad 1n Nlation to tim. ' 

·The attached photograph (Incl 3) shows the Board :in. use aa an 

Indications Board. · 

This Board prov.ides accomodatim tor 100 Indications or the 

bmd.lience of hostile air attack upan the United states, and space for 

til:llig data pertinent to each Indioaticm.. It permits time to be portrayed 

on the basia of a continuum of six mcmths b7 da.J's; provides an area for 

current postings as well as CUJllllative post~BJ and provides an admfn1strative section for the Intelligence collection1 effort. 

BIB ·~ Seuily ...... ft 
REF ID:A39262 

• Blf ~ 

SIC:Uiilt, lnfeftftatLM 

PRACTICAL APPLICATION 

Jn maldDg practical. application or tm the01'7, tlB :fnitial step 

consisted of developing a valid set ·of indications specitical.lT derived 

from the single EEI of "WHEN will the Soviet Union lmmch an air attack 

upon the United states?"' These indieaticms in order or importance 

are class1t1ed either as Direot--that is, indications di.rectq attect-

:lng the capabilit7 or intention or the USSR to conduct air attack on 

the United States, or Jndirect--that is, :lndi.catians or strategic 

support to an air attack on the United States or ·of general hostilities 

which would probabq be accompanis~ b7 air attack on the United States. 

The color scheme selected to indicate the qualitatiw evaluation--

the critical degree of davelopment--ot a given indieatian is derived 

in part from the color references to the statit at alert in the Air 

Defense Ccmnand. These colors were selected 1D the be~f that the7 are 

tamiliar. in terms of degree of alert to off'ie$ra of all .Armd Forces and 

are applicable to this problem in terms or immediate· association. Thia 

color code is as follows: 

BLACK 

(Applied 

to flow tab~) 

'!ELU>W 

RED 

"(!ight) 

An evaluaticm that aonditians pertaining to 

this specific :lndica't&i.• are: neUtral, that 

is, neither favorable Del" untavcrable to immediate air attack upon the United Stat~s 

or to strategic support thereof'J · or, no in- - telligence is available. ! 

An evaluatioa that cmditicma pertaining to · this specif'ic ind:lcatian are 'Dllf'avorable to 

hostile air attack upon the United States, 

or strategic support thereof. 

An evaluation that some of the conditions 

pertaining to this specific indibation for 

immediate attack upon. the United States; 

er strategic support thereof have been accomplished and progress on others is indicated. 

An evaluation that lllOBt cmditions pertaining to this specif'ic indication, tor immediate air attack upail the United States, or 

strategic support; thereof, haft probabq 

been met and the bal~e ma7 have been. 

6 

-ae 

$ecui:ilf. liileRRetfen 
RED 

(dark) 

BIDE 

REF ID:A39262 

BREI e 

Securitr. lnfOnnatfon 

An eval11ation that all conditions pertain-

:f.ng to this speciflc indication tor immediate air attack upon the· United States, or 

strategic support thereof', have probabq 

been met. 

For ~dministrative purposes only. A blue 

signal peg will be inserted in the first colUl'lll in the chart aecticm whenever it beco11Bs apparent; that a collection problem 

exists for a specific :indicator. 

_ a. In order to present the dynamics :Inherent in the indications, the quantitative and qualitative deg!rees or the individual 

indicaticms are presented as follows: 

Inf'ormaticm.1 intelligence and other data pertinent to the individuil indication 1s e:xandned upcm receipt and evaluated in terms of' 

its relation to specillc indicaticm. This data 18 then transpoeed 

to a specific tom., and a color value in tel"DIB ot the color code 1s 

assigned to it. A signal peg of' this color is placed in the proper 

chrono1og:lcal peg ho1e under "Current Weekn- and the Ciata card is 

placed 1n its chronological order :In an "Indications' File." The 

:Index to this file is ke19d numericalJT to the 1ndicatians and providelt immediate access to the specific data. 

b. In order to· present th:ls evalU&ticn in relation. to tl.m cm 

the basis of a continuum, 'the signal. pegs indicating evaluated inf'ormaticm are posted daiq 1n a "Cur1'8D.t Week" cohmn. At the end ot the 

week atter :t'inal approval the signal. pegs are transposed in their dail.T 

order from the "Current Week'• colum to their proper chronolog:lcal 

order in the main chart secticmo Thus, as the process of evaluation 

ccmtinues week by' week, the vary.lng degrees of evaluaticm indicated · by the vary.lng colors ot the signal pegs are presented f'or inmediate 

inspection on the basis of a cc:nt.:lmmm in terms of d1q9 .- In this 

manner trends are graphic~ illustrated. Attention is thus directed 

to changes :ln the status of the indications and 1n their inter-relaticm..: B~o - • 

c. I.n order to control and :f'urther present the- status of :lnd.ivi~al 1Ddications and their inter-relationships the flow tab ia empl.o1ed. Once the s:lgnal pegs 'UDder the neurrent Week"' colmm have been 

transposed to the min chart section, the 1•0urrent Week" data 1s exmrd.ned and evaluated 1n terms of its relationship to preyious]T 

evaluated data. -<:nee the final weekq evaluation hae been established, 

SE£REl 

Secttrifr ........ 
REF ID:A39262 

'BREI e 

-.n.x ...... 

the now tab is assigned a· color value in accordance with the color 

code. The now tabs ot all indicaticms are then inserted :ID the chronological col~ :ln the Chart Section; signifying the end. ot the current 

week. (See Incl 3J In this llJllDD3r1 cu.rrent Overall evaluation ot 

all available data m each indication is presented in boldl.7 gl'aphic 

terms. The status ot 1Ddividual indications is accented, and interrelationships become evident. ~wee~ postinp m the flow tab 

are transposed to a Wee~ Flow Tab record chart. (See Incl 3) and 

perm.nentq portrq the trend of veelc11" evaluation. A written BUllBIJ817 

of the current overall evaluation tor each indicatian ia maintained 

:In the index: pockets or the record panel. · . . 

The B18tem provides a very det1nite key to the success ar failure 

of the collection. et.fort pertaining to each specific' inclicatian. · This 

is indicated by the application of black to the f'lfJW tab oal1'1 and b7 

the absence of the signal pegs which indicate the presence. of evaluated 

data perta1n:fng to each 1ndicat1on.. When intelligenbe data is camplete11" lacld.ng or extremaq sparse or otherwise uhsatisftcto1'1', a blue 

s1gnal. peg will be inserted and rena:1Ds in the Admin!strative Colmm 

(tha first col.um 1n the chart section) until admin:lstrative action 

is t8ken to correct the collection effort pertainDgi to that indication. 

The posting of these sigaal pegs :tn the Jilaia -chart ·secticm aDCi 

the chrono1ogical filiJJg of the intelligence data in' the index fil.8 

provides an immediateq available mechanical •memor.v" te ury desired 

dept~ up to six months, md· a ready retereme ind.ex to the ~vidual 

evaluated intelligence items and weekq SU1111Bries of1 eval.uatlcm. applied · to· each indication. t 

. . This· system, because it presents grap,hicall1" rm accurate, imnediateq 

a~able, current evaluation of the 1ndi9aticms perta:tmng to the EEI 

of WHEN, acts in et.feet as a dai.11" visual auJ>i>lement· to the current 

es timate of the situaticm. insofar as that EEI is concerned, and 

provides a basis far projection and anticipation of Intelligence and 

Command actian. • 

·ncs/I, ADC emplOJPB the following SOP :.ln operating the Indicatio.m 

Board. 

INDICATIONS -- s.o.P. 

1. '1'he Indications Board ia ma:l.nta:!Ded m a daily basis by t'he 

DCS/I Duty Officer (here.rter Duty Officer). 

8 

BRET 

S1881J Jnb.iw1ron 
REF ID:A39262 

ICREI e 

Slct•fttl lafeRRatieR 

2. The Dut7 Officer enmines and evaluates the :Intelligence 

received 1D the daiJ.i intelligence tlow and registers his evaluation 

in accordance with the color code. Registration is accomplished by 

insertion of signal pegs in the peg holes found under the rtOurrent 

Week"' column in the erfireme right hand side of the BOl.rd. 

3. The Duty Officer maintatas a written dailY" record ot h1s 

evaluation and the posting received by given :Indications. 1'his record 

includes the brief or the report, the date, the indication nwli>er, the 

evaluation given :ln. tems of color, notes an the officer's basic reason 

tor the evaluation given and the name or the Daty Officer concerned. 

This data is maintained chronologicallT by :lndmat.icm mmber :ln the 

current week's indication card in:lex file. It ma7 be na:lntained :ln 

pencil or pen. 

·4. An Evaluation Committee, consisting of' the Deputy Ch:lst of 

staff' :f'or Intelligence, Director of Sindies ·and .Eatiates, Duty Otticer 

and such others as J11a7 be designated, meets weetcq en the last regular woridng day of the week. This Committee considers md nn•l1zes 

the evaluation of individual reports as established b7 the Dut7 

Otficers. The Duty Of:f'icer acts as recorder for the· Committee and 

posts the Committee's evaluation 1n tin.al £om on the T.ndications 

Board. This Committee also establishes the overall atatm of each 

1ndicator m a veekJ1' baais and changes the SUlllD.U'I' :ln the mdex 

card 'holder when necassar;r. 

. a. The applicable intall:lgence reports and the dailJ' notes 

maintained b7 the Dut:r Officers provide the basis :f'o'r st~q b7 the 

approving conmd.ttee. '!meptions taken b7 the· camrd.ttee to reg1atratian8 of specific indications are noted b7 the Duty Otticer. These 

emeptions are provided to all of the Dut7 Officers for their stud7 

and guidance. 

b. It will be the responsibilit7 0£ the Directors of 

Collection and Dissem:lmticm and Research and Evaluation to prov.Ide 

the Evaluation Committee w1 th a weekJT positiw or negative report 

cm their Indications activities. This report will be available to 

the Committee when it meets to finalize the weekl.7 postings. 

·s. 01'he Duty Officer an duty is cmtinuousl.7 prepared to brief 

ke7 memers of the Air Defense Command Stall ha'V1ng access to the 

Board an current evaluations or the indications aid the reasons 

there:f'or. 

9 

BET 

51C11ri1Y. WaRRatfoR 

...... ~ .-:-~~-:~~~ .~-,'!~ . :: .. ~~»~·~·.~ .:,.:.i~·.·_[ J. ....... 
REF ID:A39262 

9 SEORET SEOURITY INFORM. 

~ ···:.: .· 

.. 

• 

'·. 
REF ID:A39262 

¥§'SECRET 

INDICATORS 

ll£Pl1,1 f>l«J '''" "1:.ST UPMANY 

H/i-OftJ>!'-
REF ID:A39262 

-~ 

A.U1!: ~S-3 Comdr, A~ = CDa 7 (S~natur~