Energy Conservation Standards forCommercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat PumpsANOPR Public MeetingEngineering AnalysisBuilding Technologies ProgramOffice of Energy Efficiency and Renewable EnergyU.S. Department of EnergySeptember 30, 20042ANOPR Analyses Flow DiagramScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use &End-Use LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysesMarket &TechnologyAssessment3PurposeMarket & Technology Assessment•To characterize the commercial unitary AC and HP market to determineavailable equipment efficienciesand shipments by product classScreening Analysis•To identify design options that increase efficiency and to apply screeningcriteria established by DOE to determine which design options to evaluate andwhich to screen outEngineering Analysis•To characterize manufacturer cost-efficiency relationships for higher efficiencyequipment•To evaluate design options that improve efficiency relative to the baselineunits4ANOPR Issues for Public CommentApproaches to Analyses for Split Systems, Heat Pumps, andNiche Equipment (ANOPR Issue #1)Alternative Refrigerant Analysis (ANOPR Issue #2)Design-Option Analysis and Maximum Energy Efficiency Levels(ANOPR Issue #4)Technologies that Affect Full- or Part-Load Performance (ANOPRIssue #18)5Market and Technology AssessmentProduct ClassesAir-cooled unitary air conditioners and air-source unitary heat pumpsbetween 65,000 Btu/h and 240,000 Btu/h, including:•Single package air conditioners and heat pumps•Split system air conditioners and heat pumpsASHRAE Standard 90.1-1999 Minimum Efficiency(EER) Levels(Assumed as Baseline Efficiency)Equipment Type≥65,000 to <135,000Btu/h cooling capacity≥135,000 to <240,000Btu/h cooling capacitySingle Package: Air Conditioner10.39.7Single Package: Year-round Air Conditioner10.19.5Split System: Condensing Unit, Coil with Blower10.39.7Single Package: Heat Pump10.19.3Split System: Heat Pump withRemote Outdoor Unit10.19.36Market and Technology AssessmentMarket Shares and Unit ShipmentsApproximately 300,000 units covered by this rulemaking were shipped in year2000 (2001 U.S. Census data).Air conditioners account for about 90% of the covered market, while heat pumpsaccount for the remaining 10%.Majority of market share isheld by four manufacturers.Significant portions of the marketare held by two other manufacturers.Year-round (units with gas heating) single package units are the most commonconfiguration.21%23%56%Year RoundSingle PkgOther SinglePkgSplit7Screening AnalysisScreening Analysis MethodDesign options screened using the following criteria:•Technological feasibility•Practicability to manufacture, install and service•Adverse impacts on product utility or product availability•Adverse impacts on health or safety8Screening AnalysisDesign Options Selected for Further ConsiderationTechnologies that enhance EERIncrease evaporator or condenser coil areaChange the number of coil rowsHigh-efficiency fan motors or compressorsMicro-channel heat exchangersDeep coil heat exchangersAir-foil or backward-curved centrifugal fansIncrease evaporator or condenser fan diametersSynchronous (toothed) beltsDirect drive fansHigh-efficiency propeller condenser fansLow pressure loss filterReduce air leakage paths within unit9IssuesTechnologies that Affect Full- or Part-Load Performance(ANOPR Issue #18)The Department invites comment on analyzing the effects oftechnologies that can reduce EER, or are EER-neutral but can reduceannual energy consumption, and the implications both on nationalenergy savings and consumer life-cycle costs.10Engineering AnalysisEngineering Analysis ProcessDefine Equipment Classes and Baseline UnitsSelect Teardown Units, Perform Teardowns, Develop Bill ofMaterials, Develop Cost Model, Validate Cost ModelDevelop Manufacturers’ Cost-Efficiency Curves, NormalizeCurves, Aggregate Curves to an Industry CurveIdentify Design Options, Develop Performance Model, ApplyCost Model to Design Options, Validate Cost-EfficiencyRelationshipConduct R-410A Analysis, Incorporate Stakeholder FeedbackProductSelectionDesign OptionAnalysisCost ModelDevelopmentCost-EfficiencyCurveDevelopmentAdditionalAnalyses11Engineering AnalysisProduct Selection8910111289101112ASHRAE90.1-1999 Level1EPCA 1992Level7.5-ton Products15-ton ProductsEEREER1Based on ASHRAE 90.1-1999 Mandatory Minimum EER, including a reductionof 0.2 for units having a heating section other than electric resistance heat.12Engineering AnalysisFixed CostsEquipment and Plant DepreciationTooling AmortizationEquipment MaintenanceUtilitiesIndirect LaborCost of CapitalOverhead LaborVariable CostsManufactured MaterialsPurchased MaterialsFabrication LaborAssembly LaborShippingIndirect MaterialsDirectLaborDirectMaterialsFactoryExpenseGeneralExpenseSalesExpenseProfitManufacturingCostCorporate ExpensesResearch and DevelopmentProfitGeneral & AdministrationWarrantyTaxesSales and MarketingTotalProduct CostShippingTotal ProductCost +DistributionMarkups =Consumer PriceManufacturing Cost Components13Engineering AnalysisFactory Cost Breakdown by AssemblyModel A Model B Model C

Factory Cost ($)PackagingOutbound FreightControlsHeater AssemblyEvaporator CoilEvaporator UnitCondenser CoilCondenser UnitCabinet AssemblyCompressorFactory Cost BreakdownLaborMaterialOverhead & ShipDepreciationTOTALfactory costModel A$$$$$Model B$$$$$Model C$$$$$Cost Model ValidationILLUSTRATIVEEXAMPLE14Engineering AnalysisCost Efficiency Curve DevelopmentAn exponential curvewas fit to eachmanufacturer’s costefficiency pointsindividually.1The data pointswere thennormalized so thateach manufacturercurve intersected atthe ASHRAE 90.1-1999 EER level.2Next, anexponential curvewas fit to thenormalized datapoints (allmanufacturers),extrapolating thecurve slightly to 12EER.3EER

Normalized Product CostEER

Normalized Product CostEER

Absolute Product Cost15Engineering Analysis7.5 Ton Cost-Efficiency Results-$250$0$250$500$750$1,0008.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5EER

Product Cost Delta ($)ASHRAE 90.1-1999Standard1Upper 95% Confidence Interval2Industry Average Cost-Efficiency CurveLower 95% Confidence Interval1Based on ASHRAE 90.1-1999 Mandatory Minimum EER, including a reductionof 0.2 for units having a heating section other than electric resistance heat.2Confidence Interval represents the accuracy of the mean regression curve-fit (i.e., There is a 95% probability that the mean cost of a sample ofproducts at a given EER level would fall within the confidence interval).16Engineering AnalysisThere were nocommerciallyavailable productsabove 11.5 EER duringthe development of thecost-efficiency analysisso the design optionanalysis verified that theexponential curve-fit canbe extrapolated.9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12EER

Normalized Product CostILLUSTRATIVEIllustrative Cost-Efficiency CurveDesign Option AnalysisManufacturer AManufacturer BManufacturer CDesign Options17Engineering AnalysisDesign Option Analysis ApproachBASELINEAPPROACHDESCRIPTIONIncreases either condenser area or depthwhile adjusting fan size, number of fans,motor size, subcool, and/or compressor capacity.Increases either evaporator area or depthwhile adjusting blowersize, number ofblowers, subcool, and/or compressor capacity.An existingproductis thestarting pointfor thedesign processCondenser Coil1Evaporator Coil2EER Design Targets7.5-ton¿10.5-EER and 12.0-EER15-ton¿11.0-EER and 12.0-EERThe design options were combined to reach theEER design targets while satisfying variousmodeling guidelines suggested by themanufacturersModeling Parameters• Evaporator temperature• SHR• Condensing temperature• Condenser exit temperature• Condenser refrigerant∆P• Condenser face velocity• Blower motor efficiency• Condenser fan motor efficiency• System capacity vs. baseline18Engineering AnalysisValidation of Cost-Efficiency Curves-$250$0$250$500$750$1,0008.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5EER

Product Cost Delta ($)ASHRAE 90.1-1999Standard1Manufacturer “A”Design OptionsManufacturer “B”Design OptionsUpper 95% Prediction Interval2Upper 95% Confidence Interval3Industry Average Cost-Efficiency CurveLower 95% Confidence IntervalLower 95% Prediction Interval1Based on ASHRAE 90.1-1999 Mandatory Minimum EER, including a reduction of 0.2 for units having a heating section other than electric resistance heat.2Prediction Interval represents the accuracy of predicting the cost of any single unit given its EER.3Confidence Interval represents the accuracy of the mean regression curve-fit (i.e., There is a 95% probability that the mean cost of a sample ofproducts at a given EER level would fall within the confidence interval).19IssuesDesign-Option Analysis and MaximumEnergy Efficiency Levels(ANOPR Issue #4)The Department invites comments on the approach used to conductdesign-option modeling for verifying the manufacturing cost andefficiency relationship.The Department invites comments on the design options selected forestimating the manufacturing cost and efficiency relationships beyond11.5 EER.The Department invites comments on other design options that theDepartment should consider.The Department invites comments on assumptions for evaluating amaximum technologically feasible design.20Engineering AnalysisBecause of the phaseout ofCFC refrigerants, the engineering analysis considers howthe cost-efficiency relationship ofR-410A systems differs from R-22.The properties of R-410A are different fromthose of R-22 (higher operating pressures,requires modification of existing refrigeration components).The critical parameters in the analysis are the cost differential between baseline andhigh efficiency units (rather than absolute cost) and whether this cost delta differs for R410A vs. R-22 products.R-410AR-22$ of R-410A$ of R-22R-410A Analysis

Product Cost DeltaEERThe 7.5-ton R-410A design option pointsbased on a representative design appear tofollow a trend that is similar tothe R-22 cost-efficiency curve.This trend will be validatedin the post ANOPR phase.21Engineering AnalysisR-410A Analysis Preliminary AssumptionsAlthough design pressures are higher, the diameter and thicknessof the copper tubing remains the same.R-410A scroll compressors are less efficient than comparable R-22scroll compressors, but more efficient than low-efficiency R-22reciprocating compressors.The higher heat-transfer coefficients of R-410A provide for slightlylower condensing temperatures than R-22 for similar coil designs.The evaporating temperature limits for the R-410A system are thesame as the R-22 system.22Engineering Analysis7.5 Ton R-410A Analysis ResultsThe R-410A points fall within the prediction interval of the R-22 curve.-$250$0$250$500$750$1,0008.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5EER

Product Cost Delta ($)ASHRAE 90.1-1999Standard1R-410A Design OptionsUpper 95% Prediction Interval (R-22)Upper 95% Confidence Interval (R-22)Industry Average Cost-Efficiency Curve (R-22)Lower 95% Confidence Interval (R-22)Lower 95% Prediction Interval (R-22)1Based on ASHRAE 90.1-1999 Mandatory Minimum EER, including a reductionof 0.2 for units having a heating section other than electric resistance heat.23IssuesAlternative Refrigerant Analysis(ANOPR Issue #2)The Department seeks comments or data that can refine or verify theincremental cost-efficiency relationship associated with R-410Asystems.The Department seeks comments on alternative refrigerants, otherthan R-410A, that the Department should consider.24IssuesApproaches to Analyses for Split Systems, Heat Pumps,and Niche Equipment(ANOPR Issue #1)The Department invites comments on applying the cost/efficiencyrelationships developed for single package air conditioners to splitAC systems.The Department invites comments on the approach to address nicheequipment classes, such as portable units and explosionproof/hazardous duty units.The Department invites comments on addressing energy efficiencystandards for commercial unitary heat pumps in a way that isconsistent with the ASHRAE methodology used to set theASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-1999 levels.25IssuesDOE proposes to develop heating COP (47° F)requirements based on relationship betweenEER and COP as determined from market data, as used by ASHRAE.ARI Certification Data Nov 20032.903.003.103.203.303.403.508.09.010.011.012.0EER

COPHSP-AHRCU-A-CB90.1-1999 Requirements, 65-13590.1-1999 Requirements, 135-240Linear Regession (HSP-A)Linear Regression (HRCU-A-CB)Approaches to Analyses for Split Systems, Heat Pumps,and Niche Equipment (continued)(ANOPR Issue #1)26IssuesOther IssuesThe Department seeks comments and recommendations fromstakeholders on any other aspects related to the EngineeringAnalysis.