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A, 

Declassified and 

pproved for 

elease by NSA 

n 11-08-2013 

ursuant to E.O. 

13526 

. . 

RE.F ID :A487805 /() c I 

WAR DEPARTMENT L ( 

T~P $JEJ~~JEJ1r 1Di'fu1r~.& 

From: 

196 

OLTM 

Chief, Ge11 Staff') ) 

[ Pl~rt s 1-6 c omple 'te] 

AnsweJ:> to your wire #949a.. 

. ~ 

J~;;. 

?~·~J 

A. ~~ 

Today; the 20th~ I conferred wlth the Ge1•.m.an Attaehc. 

We exchanged opinions i.r1 a roundabout way J withoat lr..eJd.ng 

direct statements. His ideas a.re more or less as fol:Lo;;s ! 

1. Brlta.in would p:i:>o'bably actually welcome t-5. ~TG.pa;::.ese 

attack on Russia; as she would think that it would 1ir~ht0n 

·the heavy -pressm:e on. her south. Nevel"'thc1efJn Br:!.tu,:L1 aD.d. 

J..mer:i..ca would probabl;y· continue the:i.r aid t·o Fcussia (of 

·\lhlch the quantity is very small) . In case o? a riorthe.n.1 

i'.l,dvance by the J'apanesie Army·, ·he feels Ame1~ica r: ::i atU.tuc.c 

wouJ.d be mor•e or less as you estimste in l of you~"." \-T:~rB. 

l 

2. 2 of your wi1•e tallies with the Gorme.~1. AttE~.c11e s 

opinions. He eve~n goes o~ to say that eve:..1 t:,10ugh the 

.Japanese Army should :l.:nva.de the Netherlands East lndtes. and 

Singapore 1 Amertr.:a ·would pr•oba.bly not force even a. polit:lcal 

OI' conmv~rcial war'w:tth Japan, prov:i.ded that the J·cn!tr.i.eso 

A11my does not directly attack the Philipp:Lnez. m~· bloc;l\. the 

shipment of tin, ruhbe.l'., an.d the like from Malaya -~1,nd the 

~Pd·~me~I&if ID'LTM W~E§~B*Mf~'fftA Page l 

This sheet of paper and all of its contents must be safeguarded with the greatest ca e 

Utmoiit secrecy ii! necessary to prevent drying up this sort of vital intelligence at its sour~e: 
!•• ... ... 

... _ 

Part ) • 

REF ID:A487805 

WAR DEPARTMENT 

~DP SEGRE~ HLfttA 

He continues, if' Japan should reserve these products 

like tin a.nd rubbe1• f'or her own exclusive use, America 

might declare wa~ against us with little delay, but it is 

more p1°obable that even in this case America would lF:?sitat0 

for a. long ti.me~ giving .. Ta pan .an interval which we would 

have to use f'or the a.ss:I.duous collection of .mat,3rit:cls of' 

war such as, for one_, ga.soline. · 

3. 3 and lj. of your wi:re coincide with the opinion.s of 

/ the German Attache. 

Part 11 .. 

B. My atPinions on the foregoing: 

1. America is ma.ir1tr·,inin.g her t~adit1-on.~tl far--eastern 

policy, de·1roting her best efforts to upholding and augmenting 

hG:L' power in ·the Fa.r East, pa.1~ticularly in the South Se1:.s) 

a.r:..d t;o insurin.g the t1"'an:~rport of var m8.ter:l.a1s to .E.nglerJ.d 

the Empire should drive southwards I doubt· -Chat .f\.mex<i.ce., 

would look on unconcerned. 

Part 5. 

I mean, as :;: have · setjrorth in previous wi r:es, /fl59b 

and others!' t.ha.t although America. would no":"- for•ce Japan 

into a decisive JJll.r, she would, quite possibly, s\7 e:r· economic 

~: s;_,_ ng ... .. l_n~. ~Efr·gru~n · . 

WAR l!&J)~§ifMJENT D-101~;5 

This sheet of paper and all of~~o~s~uarded with the g.f_t:a.,!~t ,';a{c. Utmost secrecy is necessary to~n t ~f vital in telligencelii'tl-UFsotirc,e. 

' __ ._.1..~,,.:.~.,,.,.....;:/·:V~-:..-·;~~: ... r--i@c·~r {+ .1. - • ti:.11:"..~~~~{,~~~~--=--- ~' 
•• 

REF ID:A487805 

Wi\R. DEPARTMENT 

. a 

2. The greater pe,:rt of your wil ... e //949 coinc:l.d.es 

/ with the views which the German Attache hns fpequen.tly expressed 

,;" . -

to us. 'l'he Gel"ms.n Counceller and Naval Attache also agree 

that a.:r!. in.vas:lon of thE:J Dutch East. Indies l:;iy tl~e Imperial 

Forces would probably :i1.ot .ocaston a Japanese-Ame1"ican war. 

Part 6 

However German and Italian, especially German, 

estima. tes o.n the U.S. are almost always cver-optim1'·;,::.:t:Lc a.nds 

' . at times are of such a nature. as to make one think tbFm 

del1.be1,,ately planned for the purpose of impeLLing thG :Lr.p8Pin.1 

Forces into a Northern or Southern Drive. 

a - In process. b - Parts 1-3 in process, part 4 D-10165. 

Inter 21 Sept 4~{2) ·->., Rec'd --M--

T:r>ans 2 May 1945 (9527-o) 

Japanese D-1015=> 

WAR DEPARTMENT 

This sheet of paper and all of its contents must be safeguarded with the greatest care. Utmost secrecy is necessary to prevent dryin~ up this sort of vital intelligence at its source . 

. -."-'.::~--;.;if# . .• .>...';,.~. ~;..'...,; .. - ;;:fi@!e+.