Simulation Statistics for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters (10000 samples)

LCC Savings Percentile min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $0 $902 $54 $0 $0 $0 $0 $294 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $0 $1,733 $101 $0 $0 $0 $0 $556 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $0 $2,526 $203 $0 $0 $0 $329 $831 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $0 $3,242 $295 $0 $0 $128 $507 $1,056 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle -$90 $4,029 $391 $0 $0 $234 $652 $1,319 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle -$59 $4,435 $495 $0 $87 $339 $781 $1,508

Payback Periods Percentile min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 0.3 2.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.9 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle 1.1 16.8 3.3 1.5 1.9 2.3 4.1 8.0 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle 0.0 10.9 2.1 0.0 1.4 1.9 2.6 5.2

Annual Oil Use (MMBtu) Percentile min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% 0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) 7.99 68.11 21.61 11.55 16.29 20.60 25.73 35.44 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) 7.53 67.50 21.09 11.05 15.79 20.09 25.20 34.91 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 6.64 66.34 20.10 10.11 14.83 19.09 24.23 33.74 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 5.82 65.27 19.18 9.21 13.93 18.18 23.28 32.75 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 5.05 64.28 18.32 8.37 13.12 17.33 22.40 31.75 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 4.33 63.35 17.51 7.58 12.34 16.56 21.59 30.94 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle 3.88 59.84 16.36 6.94 11.46 15.46 20.23 29.04 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle 3.69 58.23 15.84 6.65 11.06 14.97 19.59 28.18

Annual Electricity Use (kWh) Percentile min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% 0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) 22 185 61 32 46 58 72 99 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) 21 183 59 31 44 57 71 98 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 18 180 57 28 42 54 68 95 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 16 177 54 26 39 51 65 92 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 14 174 52 24 37 49 63 89 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 12 172 49 21 35 47 61 87 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle 11 162 46 20 32 43 57 82 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle 10 158 45 19 31 42 55 79

Retail Price Percentile min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% 0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $1,223 $1,725 $1,328 $1,223 $1,250 $1,258 $1,397 $1,546 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,235 $1,744 $1,342 $1,235 $1,262 $1,271 $1,413 $1,562 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $1,247 $1,760 $1,355 $1,247 $1,275 $1,285 $1,427 $1,577 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,275 $1,781 $1,380 $1,275 $1,303 $1,314 $1,445 $1,612 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $1,258 $1,776 $1,367 $1,258 $1,286 $1,296 $1,440 $1,591 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $1,288 $1,799 $1,394 $1,288 $1,316 $1,328 $1,460 $1,628 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $1,421 $1,963 $1,534 $1,421 $1,452 $1,470 $1,598 $1,796 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $1,418 $1,971 $1,534 $1,418 $1,449 $1,466 $1,604 $1,792

Installation Cost Percentile min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% 0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873

Total Installed Price Percentile min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% 0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $1,702 $2,910 $1,974 $1,755 $1,849 $1,949 $2,071 $2,283 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,714 $2,929 $1,988 $1,767 $1,862 $1,963 $2,086 $2,299 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $1,726 $2,945 $2,001 $1,780 $1,875 $1,976 $2,099 $2,314 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,754 $2,966 $2,026 $1,808 $1,903 $2,001 $2,124 $2,338 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $1,737 $2,961 $2,013 $1,791 $1,887 $1,989 $2,112 $2,327 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $1,766 $2,984 $2,040 $1,821 $1,916 $2,014 $2,138 $2,353 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $1,900 $3,148 $2,180 $1,957 $2,053 $2,152 $2,280 $2,504 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $1,897 $3,156 $2,180 $1,954 $2,051 $2,153 $2,281 $2,508

Annual Maintenance Cost Percentile min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% 0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153

Annual Repair Cost Percentile min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% 0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

First Year Operating Cost Percentile min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% 0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $324 $1,646 $625 $405 $508 $602 $716 $927 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $314 $1,632 $614 $394 $497 $591 $704 $915 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $295 $1,607 $592 $374 $477 $570 $682 $890 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $278 $1,584 $572 $355 $458 $550 $662 $867 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $261 $1,562 $554 $337 $440 $532 $643 $847 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $246 $1,542 $536 $319 $423 $514 $625 $829 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $236 $1,465 $511 $305 $404 $490 $595 $788 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $232 $1,429 $500 $299 $395 $479 $582 $770

Total Operating Cost (sum over lifetime discounted) Percentile min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% 0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $1,514 $27,148 $6,655 $3,121 $4,561 $6,074 $8,069 $12,233 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,478 $26,845 $6,530 $3,044 $4,465 $5,957 $7,921 $12,026 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $1,391 $26,273 $6,295 $2,896 $4,282 $5,737 $7,645 $11,670 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,307 $25,743 $6,076 $2,760 $4,108 $5,529 $7,394 $11,325 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $1,229 $25,251 $5,872 $2,633 $3,952 $5,339 $7,162 $11,017 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $1,155 $24,791 $5,681 $2,515 $3,799 $5,157 $6,942 $10,726 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $1,107 $23,547 $5,407 $2,397 $3,621 $4,908 $6,611 $10,194 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $1,086 $22,978 $5,283 $2,347 $3,538 $4,795 $6,457 $9,955

Household Characteristics Percentile min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% Tank size (gallons) 32 50 38 32 32 32 50 50 Baseline Efficiency 0.51 0.68 0.60 0.51 0.55 0.60 0.66 0.68 Lifetime 6.1 33.2 13.0 7.7 10.1 12.4 15.3 20.1 DiscountRate 0.0% 29.3% 4.8% 0.1% 2.0% 3.5% 6.7% 12.9% Outdoor Temperature (oF) 39 55 49 40 47 50 51 55 Inlet Water Temperature (oF) 33 79 52 42 48 52 56 64 Indoor Temp. inside House (oF) 60 74 68 65 67 69 70 72 Temp. of Air around the Water Heater, oF (Tamb in oF) 44 73 59 51 55 58 63 70 Tank Setpoint Temperature (oF) 120 140 124 120 120 120 128 138 Average Daily Hot Water Draw (gal/day) 1 174 45 11 28 42 59 89 Markups (baseline) 1.54 1.95 1.61 1.54 1.55 1.57 1.58 1.95 Markups (incremental) 1.22 1.54 1.29 1.22 1.23 1.25 1.30 1.54 2015 Average Baseline Oil Prices (2009$/MMBtu) $29.66 $30.59 $30.08 $29.69 $29.71 $30.27 $30.36 $30.54 2015 Average Baseline Electricity Prices (2009$/kWh) $0.11 $0.20 $0.17 $0.14 $0.14 $0.17 $0.20 $0.20 Water Heater Installed in 1 = in heated basement 20.5% Water Heater Installed in 2 = in unheated basement 48.4% Water Heater Installed in 3 = in garage 31.1% Water Heater Installed in 4 = inside house 0.0% Water Heater Installed in 5 = attic 0.0% Tank Size 32 gal 66.6% Tank Size 50 gal 33.4%Simulation Summary for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters Simulation Results - 10000 samples AEO 2010 - Reference Case (Early Release) USER OPTIONS: LCC Results Payback Results Installed Lifetime LCC Net No Net No Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average ImpactUndefined Energy Price Trend AEO 2010 - Reference Case (Early Release) 0 0.53 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $1,974 $6,655 $8,629 1 0.54 - Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,988 $6,530 $8,518 $0 0% 100% 0%NA NA 100% 0% Start Year 2015 2 0.56 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $2,001 $6,295 $8,296 $54 0% 76% 24% 0.6 0.6 76% 0% 3 0.58 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $2,026 $6,076 $8,102 $101 0% 76% 24% 0.9 0.9 76% 0% # of Trials 4 0.60 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $2,013 $5,872 $7,885 $203 0% 54% 46% 0.3 0.2 54% 0% 5 0.62 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $2,040 $5,681 $7,721 $295 0% 47% 53% 0.5 0.7 47% 0% Rebound = 0% 6 0.66 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $2,180 $5,407 $7,587 $391 2% 33% 65% 2.3 3.3 33% 0% 7 0.68 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $2,180 $5,283 $7,463 $495 0% 17% 83% 1.9 2.1 17% 0% * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment AE O 2010 - R

eferenceCase(E

arly R elease)

2015

10000 RunLCC & Payback Calculations for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

RECS Household #141

Import Parameters Year of Purchase Year of Purchase 2015 Lifetime 13.0 years Discount Rate 7.6% Baseline Efficiency

Level 3 EF =0.55

Efficiency Annual Energy Use Eff. Retail Level Description EF Oil Elec Price (MMBtu) (kWh) ($) 0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) 0.50 13.9 38 $1,404 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.51 13.4 37 $1,420 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 0.53 12.6 35 $1,434

>> 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.55 11.9 33 $1,452 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 0.57 11.2 31 $1,447 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 0.59 10.5 29 $1,467 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle0.63 9.7 27 $1,606 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle 0.65 9.4 26 $1,612 All dollar values are in 2009 $

HOUSEHOLD INFORMA TION: RECS Household # 141

Water Heater Tank Size 50 gallons

2015 2015 2008 Energy Prices for Household(in 2009$) Avg PricePrice FactorAvg Price Oil Price $30.49 1.23 $24.81$ / MMBtu Elec. Price $0.14 1.11 $0.13 $ / kWhInstall- Total Annual Annual First Year Cumul. life_ Total

ation Installed Maint. Repair Oper. Cost Cash Cycle LCC Pay

- Operating Net Cost Price Cost Cost* 2015 Flow Cost Saving back Cost Cost ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) (year) $779 $2,183 $153 $0 $457 $8,652 $6,169 $3,987 $779 $2,199 $153 $0 $447 $8,530 $6,101 $0 NA $3,902 $779 $2,212 $153 $0 $430 $8,282 $5,954 $0 NA $3,741 $779 $2,231 $153 $0 $413 $8,058 $5,823 $0 NA $3,593 $779 $2,226 $153 $0 $398 $7,828 $5,680 $143 0.0 $3,455 $779 $2,246 $153 $0 $384 $7,638 $5,572 $252 0.5 $3,326 $779 $2,385 $153 $0 $367 $7,524 $5,556 $268 3.3 $3,171 $779 $2,391 $153 $0 $359 $7,418 $5,493 $331 3.0 $3,102 * Annual repair cost used only after warranty periodAnnual Cash Flow Calculations Oil PriceElec. PriceDiscount Age Year Trend Trend Factor 0 1 0 1.00 $2,183 $2,199 1 2015 0.87 0.93 0.93 $457 $447 2 2016 0.91 0.94 0.86 $470 $460 3 2017 0.94 0.96 0.80 $479 $469 4 2018 0.96 0.96 0.75 $488 $478 No Net PB PB 5 2019 0.98 0.96 0.69 $494 $484 Impact Benefitno impactundefined 6 2020 0.99 0.97 0.65 $499 $489 7 2021 1.00 0.98 0.60 $501 $491 8 2022 1.01 0.98 0.56 $504 $493 1 1 9 2023 1.02 0.99 0.52 $509 $498 1 1 10 2024 1.03 0.99 0.48 $511 $500 1 1 11 2025 1.04 0.99 0.45 $515 $504

1 12 2026 1.05 0.99 0.42 $519 $508 1 13 2027 1.06 1.00 0.39 $522 $510 1 14 2028 1.07 1.01 0.36 $526 $515 1 15 2029 1.09 1.03 0.33 $532 $520 16 2030 1.09 1.03 0.31 $534 $522 17 2031 1.11 1.04 0.29 $540 $528 18 2032 1.13 1.05 0.27 $546 $534 19 2033 1.14 1.06 0.25 $551 $539 20 2034 1.16 1.07 0.23 $557 $544 21 2035 1.18 1.07 0.22 $563 $550 22 2036 1.19 1.08 0.20 $567 $554 23 2037 1.20 1.09 0.19 $572 $559 24 2038 1.22 1.10 0.17 $576 $563 25 2039 1.23 1.10 0.16 $581 $568 26 2040 1.24 1.11 0.15 $585 $572 27 2041 1.26 1.12 0.14 $590 $577 28 2042 1.27 1.13 0.13 $595 $581 29 2043 1.28 1.14 0.12 $600 $586 30 2044 1.30 1.15 0.11 $605 $591 31 2045 1.31 1.16 0.10 $610 $595 32 2046 1.33 1.17 0.10 $615 $600 33 2047 1.34 1.18 0.09 $620 $605 34 2048 1.36 1.19 0.08 $625 $610 35 2049 1.37 1.20 0.08 $630 $615 36 2050 1.39 1.20 0.07 $635 $620 37 2051 1.40 1.21 0.07 $640 $625 38 2052 1.42 1.22 0.06 $646 $630 39 2053 1.43 1.23 0.06 $651 $635 40 2054 1.45 1.24 0.05 $656 $641 41 2055 1.46 1.25 0.05 $662 $646 42 2056 1.48 1.26 0.05 $667 $651 43 2057 1.49 1.27 0.04 $673 $657 44 2058 1.51 1.28 0.04 $679 $662 45 2059 1.53 1.29 0.04 $684 $668 46 2060 1.54 1.30 0.03 $690 $673 47 2061 1.56 1.31 0.03 $696 $679 48 2062 1.58 1.32 0.03 $702 $685 49 2063 1.60 1.33 0.03 $708 $691 50 2064 1.61 1.35 0.03 $714 $697 51 2065 1.63 1.36 0.02 $720 $702 52 2066 1.65 1.37 0.02 $726 $708 53 2067 1.67 1.38 0.02 $732 $714 54 2068 1.68 1.39 0.02 $739 $721 55 2069 1.70 1.40 0.02 $745 $72756 2070 1.72 1.41 0.02 $752 $733 57 2071 1.74 1.42 0.02 $758 $739 58 2072 1.76 1.43 0.01 $765 $746 59 2073 1.78 1.44 0.01 $771 $752 60 2074 1.80 1.46 0.01 $778 $759 61 2075 1.82 1.47 0.01 $785 $765 62 2076 1.84 1.48 0.01 $792 $772 63 2077 1.86 1.49 0.01 $799 $779 64 2078 1.88 1.50 0.01 $806 $786 65 2079 1.90 1.51 0.01 $813 $792 66 2080 1.92 1.53 0.01 $820 $799 67 2081 1.94 1.54 0.01 $827 $806 68 2082 1.96 1.55 0.01 $835 $814 69 2083 1.98 1.56 0.01 $842 $821Annual Cash Flow by Efficiency

Level 2 3 4 5 6 7 $2,212 $2,231 $2,226 $2,246 $2,385 $2,391 $430 $413 $398 $384 $367 $359 $442 $425 $409 $394 $376 $368 $450 $432 $416 $401 $382 $374 $458 $440 $423 $408 $389 $380 $464 $445 $428 $412 $393 $384 $468 $450 $432 $416 $397 $388 $470 $451 $434 $418 $398 $389 $473 $454 $436 $420 $400 $391 $477 $458 $440 $423 $403 $394 $479 $460 $442 $425 $405 $396 $483 $463 $445 $428 $408 $399 $486 $466 $448 $431 $410 $401 $489 $469 $450 $433 $412 $403 $493 $473 $454 $437 $416 $406 $498 $478 $459 $441 $420 $410 $500 $480 $460 $443 $421 $412 $506 $485 $465 $447 $425 $416 $511 $490 $470 $451 $429 $419 $515 $494 $474 $455 $433 $423 $521 $499 $479 $460 $437 $427 $526 $504 $483 $464 $441 $431 $530 $508 $487 $468 $444 $434 $534 $512 $491 $471 $447 $437 $538 $516 $494 $474 $451 $440 $543 $520 $498 $478 $454 $443 $547 $524 $502 $481 $457 $446 $551 $528 $506 $485 $460 $449 $556 $532 $509 $489 $464 $453 $560 $536 $513 $492 $467 $456 $564 $540 $517 $496 $471 $459 $569 $544 $521 $500 $474 $463 $573 $548 $525 $504 $478 $466 $578 $553 $529 $507 $481 $469 $583 $557 $533 $511 $485 $473 $587 $561 $537 $515 $488 $476 $592 $566 $542 $519 $492 $480 $597 $570 $546 $523 $496 $483 $602 $575 $550 $527 $499 $487 $606 $580 $554 $531 $503 $491 $611 $584 $559 $535 $507 $494 $616 $589 $563 $539 $511 $498 $621 $594 $568 $544 $515 $502 $627 $598 $572 $548 $519 $506 $632 $603 $577 $552 $523 $509 $637 $608 $581 $557 $527 $513 $642 $613 $586 $561 $531 $517 $647 $618 $591 $565 $535 $521 $653 $623 $596 $570 $539 $525 $658 $628 $600 $574 $543 $529 $664 $634 $605 $579 $547 $533 $669 $639 $610 $584 $552 $537 $675 $644 $615 $588 $556 $542 $681 $649 $620 $593 $561 $546 $686 $655 $625 $598 $565 $550 $692 $660 $630 $603 $569 $555$698 $666 $636 $608 $574 $559

$704 $671 $641 $613 $579 $563 $710 $677 $646 $618 $583 $568 $716 $683 $652 $623 $588 $572 $722 $688 $657 $628 $593 $577 $728 $694 $663 $633 $597 $581 $735 $700 $668 $638 $602 $586 $741 $706 $674 $643 $607 $591 $747 $712 $679 $649 $612 $596 $754 $718 $685 $654 $617 $600 $761 $724 $691 $660 $622 $605 $767 $731 $697 $665 $627 $610 $774 $737 $703 $671 $632 $615 $781 $743 $709 $676 $638 $620Rebuttable Payback Period Calculation for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Rebuttable PBP is determined based on DOE's Water Heater Test Procedure conditions (10 CFR, 430 subpart B, Appendix E)

Manufacturer Production Cost (MPC)*Total Manufacturer Selling Price (MSP)** 2009$ 2009$ Oil Water Heaters (32 Gallons) - Representative Rated Storage Volume 0 0.53 EFElectronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $599 $795

1 0.54 EFElectronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $606 $805 2 0.56 EFElectronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $613 $815 3 0.58 EFElectronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $625 $838 4 0.6 EFElectronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $620 $824 5 0.62 EFElectronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $633 $848 6 0.66 EFElectronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $717 $957 7 0.68 EFElectronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $722 $955 Energy Factor Potential Design Option

* The manufacturing production cost (MPC) includes the direct labor, direct material, and direct overhead. ** The manufacturing selling price (MSP) includes manufacturer profit and non-production costs, such as selling, general and administrative expenses, research and development, and interest. Efficiency Levels Cost Data Manufacturer Costs (per unit) from Engineering AnalysisEnergy Use Calculation for Water Heaters (10 CFR, 430 subpart B, Appendix E)

Incremental MSP Retail InstallationMaintenanc

e Fuel Electric Total Installed Total

OperatingSimple

Payback 2009$ 2009$ 2009$ 2009$ MBtu/yrkWh/year 2009$ 2009$/yr years

$1,278 $646 $157 27.64 79 $1,924 $1,002 0 $10 $1,291 $646 $157 27.13 77 $1,937 $986 0.8 1 $20 $1,304 $646 $157 26.16 74 $1,950 $956 0.6 2 $43 $1,333 $646 $157 25.26 72 $1,980 $929 0.8 3 $29 $1,316 $646 $157 24.42 70 $1,962 $903 0.4 4 $53 $1,347 $646 $157 23.63 67 $1,993 $879 0.6 5 $162 $1,488 $646 $157 22.20 63 $2,134 $835 1.3 6 $160 $1,485 $646 $157 21.55 61 $2,131 $815 1.1 7

** The manufacturing selling price (MSP) includes manufacturer profit and non-production costs, such as selling, general and administrative expenses, research and development, and interest. Cost Data Energy Use Data Summary Economics Manufacturer Costs (per unit) from Engineering AnalysisConsumer Costs from the LCC Analysis Total CostsEnergy Use Calculation for Water Heaters (10 CFR, 430 subpart B, Appendix E)

Product Class Vst QIN QP EF RE gallons Btuhr Btu/hr %

0.53 EF - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) 32 100,000 0 0.53 76% 0.54 EF - Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) 32 100,000 0 0.54 76% 0.56 EF - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 32 100,000 0 0.56 76% 0.58 EF - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 32 100,000 0 0.58 76% 0.6 EF - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 32 100,000 0 0.60 76% 0.62 EF - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 32 100,000 0 0.62 76% 0.66 EF - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle 32 100,000 0 0.66 80% 0.68 EF - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle 32 100,000 0 0.68 82%

Equations for calculating the Energy Consumption of Oil-Fired Storage-Type Water Heaters

EAnnual_Fuel = EAnnual- EAnnual_Electricity / 3.412 EAnnual_Electricity = 365 *Zaux EAnnual = 365 * QDM QDM = (MTotal* CP* ( Tdel- Tin) ) /EF Zaux = P_IG * Cycles * t_IG / 60 + P_Blower * (Q_DM ) / Q_IN + P_Standby * (24 - (Q_DM ) / Q_IN) MTotal = Ut* d2

Variable Definitions

EF = Energy Factor CP = Specific heat capacity of water (assumed to be constant at each draw) = 1.0 Btu/°F *lb Tdel = Nominal mean storage tank temperature = 135 °F Tin = Nominal cold water supply temperature = 58 °F Ut = daily hot water consumption = 64.3 gallons d2 = density of water in lb/gal at the mean outlet water temperature = 8.204 PIG = Electricity consumption by ignition device Cycles = Number of draws per day = 6 Assumption based on DOE Test Procedure 24 hr test TIG = Time ignition device is on Paux = Electricity consumption by blower or controls while water heater is on QIN = Rated fuel input capacity PStandby = Electricity use during standbyPig tig Paux Pstandby Ut d2 Mtotal Cp Cycles Zaux TAMB

kW min/cycle kW kW gal/day lb/gal lb/day Btu/lb °FDraws/daykWh/day °F

0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.216 67.5 0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.212 67.5 0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.204 67.5 0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.197 67.5 0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.190 67.5 0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.184 67.5 0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.173 67.5 0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.168 67.5

Notes Annual Gas Fuel Energy Consumption Annual auxilary electrical energy consumption Annual Energy Consumption (Section 6.1.8) Daily water heating energy consumption (Section 6.1.7). Assumes specific heat of water is constant. P_IG * Cycles * t_IG / 60 + P_Blower * (Q_DM ) / Q_IN + P_Standby * (24 - (Q_DM ) / Q_IN) Electrical energy used by any auxilary electric equipment (kWh) Assumes that Zaux is very small compared to QDM. Total mass of water withdrawn (Assumes specific heat of water is constant and density of water constant)

Specific heat capacity of water (assumed to be constant at each draw) = 1.0 Btu/°F *lb

density of water in lb/gal at the mean outlet water temperature = 8.204

Assumption based on DOE Test Procedure 24 hr test

Electricity consumption by blower or controls while water heater is onTIN TTANK UA QDM EAnnual EAnnual_fuelEAnnual_aux_elecBurnerONBurnerOFF

°F °F Btu/hr °F Btu/day MMBTU/yMMBtu/yearkWh/year hrs/year hrs/year

58 135 14.61 76,474 27.9 27.6 78.7 276 8484 58 135 13.72 75,058 27.4 27.1 77.3 271 8489 58 135 12.02 72,377 26.4 26.2 74.5 262 8498 58 135 10.45 69,881 25.5 25.3 71.9 253 8507 58 135 8.98 67,552 24.7 24.4 69.5 244 8516 58 135 7.60 65,373 23.9 23.6 67.3 236 8524 58 135 6.78 61,411 22.4 22.2 63.2 222 8538 58 135 6.41 59,605 21.8 21.5 61.4 215 8545

Electrical energy used by any auxilary electric equipment (kWh) Assumes that Zaux is very small compared to QDM. Total mass of water withdrawn (Assumes specific heat of water is constant and density of water constant)Equipment Prices of Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Import Parameters Manufacturer's Cost for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters From RECS WH Tanksz Tank size of water heater (gal) 50 0 iTanksz Tank size index 2 1 Repl or New (1=retrofit, 2=new) 1 2 Div & Lrg State 2 3 4 Intermediate Parameters 5 Channel If New, then 3, else use A / B dist. 2 6

Baseline Markup 1.58 7 Incremental Markup 1.30

Markups for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters Export Parameters Manufacturer Markup To: LCC&PB Calcs Sample Household: Retail Price (2009$) for 50 gal WH Markups by Category Retail Price 0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $1,404 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,420 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $1,434 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,452 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $1,447 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $1,467 Total Retail Markup by Distribution Channel 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $1,606 1 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $1,612 2

Sales Tax Rates By Division and Large States Sales Tax% HHs 1 1 New England 6.1% 44% 2 2 Mid Atlantic 6.6% 24% 3 East North Central 6.9% 0% Average Markups for Rebuttable Payback Analy sis 4 West North Central 6.9% 0% 5 South Atlantic 6.6% 2% 6 East South Central 7.9% 0% 7 West South Central 8.4% 0% 8 Mountain 6.8% 0% 9 Pacific 7.5% 0% 10 New York State 8.5% 31% 11 California 9.2% 0% 12 Texas 8.1% 0% 13 Florida 6.7% 0%

U.S. A verage(weighted based on RECS households) 7.0%Manufacturer's Cost for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters Mnfr. Selling Price(2009$)Incr. Selling Price(2009$) 32 gal 50 gal 32 gal 50 gal Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $794.70 $886.60 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $804.80 $899.30 $10.10 $12.70 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $814.90 $909.40 $20.20 $22.80 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $837.50 $923.40 $42.80 $36.80 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $824.00 $919.80 $29.30 $33.20 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $847.90 $935.10 $53.20 $48.50 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $957.10 $1,041.70 $162.40 $155.10 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $954.60 $1,046.50 $159.90 $159.90

Markups for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters Manufacturer Markup Replacement Units New Units Markups by

Category Baseline Incremental Baseline Incremental Retailer 1.45 1.15 Distributor 1.35 1.11 1.35 1.11 Contractor 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 Builder 1.31 1.26 Sales Tax 1.066 1.066

Total Retail Markup by Distribution Channel Baseline Incremental Baseline Incremental Channel A 1.55 1.23 1.77 1.40 Channel B 1.58 1.30 1.95 1.54

A or B? (1=A, 2=B) 2 2 Channel A 60% 50% Channel B 40% 50%

Average Markups for Rebuttable Payback Analy sis Baseline Incremental Baseline Incremental Total Average Retail Markup 1.57 1.26 1.86 1.47 Total Average Retail Markup (Replacement and New Units) 1.61 1.291.30Mnfr. Cost(2009$) Shipping Cost(2009$)

32 gal 50 gal 32 gal 50 gal $599.00 $662.00 $16.00 $26.00 $606.00 $671.00 $17.00 $27.00 $613.00 $678.00 $18.00 $28.00 $625.00 $688.00 $25.00 $29.00 $620.00 $686.00 $18.00 $28.00 $633.00 $697.00 $25.00 $29.00 $717.00 $779.00 $25.00 $29.00 $722.00 $785.00 $16.00 $26.00Base Case Efficiency of Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Import Parameters Distribution of Base Case Efficiency by Tank Size From RECS WH Tank Size 32 50 Tank Size 50 gal Eff. Level EF % EF % 0 0.53 0.00% 0.50 0.00% Export Parameters 1 0.54 20.00% 0.51 33.33% To: LCC&PB Calcs 2 0.56 0.00% 0.53 0.00% Basecase Efficiency 0.55 3 0.58 0.00% 0.55 66.67% 4 0.60 10.00% 0.57 0.00% 5 0.62 20.00% 0.59 0.00% 6 0.66 25.00% 0.63 0.00% 7 0.68 25.00% 0.65 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% Source: Models Data worksheet

Tank SizeEF Dist. 32 0.54 50 0.55Oil Water Heater Models Directory

AHRI Directory (2/17/2010) Criteria: Energy Source= Gas; Status Type = Approved; Gas Type = Natural or Both; Heater Type = Storage; Basic Model = True

GAMA Model ID Energy

Source Company Name Trade

Names

271193oil

BOCK WATER HEATERS INC. Bock to: Energy

Use 271194oil BOCK WATER HEATERS INC. Bock Input Rating 32 Gallon 50 Gallon 884930oil BRADFORD WHITE CORPORATION Bradford White, Jetglas (kBtu/h) % % 884932oil BRADFORD WHITE CORPORATION Bradford White, Jetglas 90 29% 0% 432689oil GIANT FACTORIES, INC. Giant 103 14% 33% 432690oil GIANT FACTORIES, INC. Giant 104 43% 33% 3725oil GSWWATER HEATING COMPANY GSW, John Wood, Moffat, Olsen 105 14% 33% 3727oil GSWWATER HEATING COMPANY GSW, John Wood, Moffat, Olsen 100% 100% 3730oil GSWWATER HEATING COMPANY GSW, John Wood, Moffat, Olsen 3731oil

HEATTRANSFER PRODUCTS INC. Super-Stor Oil Fired

to: Energy

Use Efficiency 32 Gallon32 Gal - Shipment50 Gallon Level % Weighted (%) % 0 0% 0% 0% 1 29% 20% 33% 2 0% 0% 0% 3 0% 0% 67% 4 14% 10% 0% 5 29% 20% 0% 6 14% 25% 0% 7 14% 25% 0%

100% 100% 100%

32-Gal Shipment Weighted A ssumptions 30 Gallon Bock Fraction Bock Market Share 33% 50.0% 30 Gallon vs. 50 Gallon Fraction 67%

1) we know 2/3 of the market is 30 or 32 gallon tank sizes 2) Bock does not currently provide this tank size and is the dominant player in the market 3) If the rest of the market sold 30 vs. 50 gallons at a 50%-50% ratio then Bock has 33% of the market Input Rating Distribution by Rated Volume

Input Rating Distribution by Rated VolumeCriteria: Energy Source= Gas; Status Type = Approved; Gas Type = Natural or Both; Heater Type = Storage; Basic Model = True

Model Number Status

Type Effective

Date Gas Type Heater Type Rated

Volume Input

Rating Energy

Factor First Hour

Flow RatingRecovery

Efficiency

32E

Approved

40072nonestorage 32 104 0.66 130 80 32PP

Approved

40072nonestorage 32 104 0.68 132 82 CF-32-*

Approved

39910nonestorage 32 104 0.54 113 75 CF-50-*

Approved

39910nonestorage 50 104 0.51 130 75 OG32-US

Approved

39552nonestorage 32 103 0.54 120 75 OG50-US

Approved

39552nonestorage 50 103 0.55 150 79 JW317

Approved

37914nonestorage 30 105 0.62 150 78 JWF 307

Approved

37914nonestorage 32 90 0.6 110 76 JWF 507

Approved

37914nonestorage 50 105 0.55 190 76 SJ-30C

Approved

37845nonestorage 30 90 0.62 101 75Heat TrapsManufactured Home Tabletop Power Combustion or Power Vent Direct VentElectronic Ignition Basic

Model?

f f f f f f TRUE f f f f f f TRUE f f f f f f TRUE f f f f f f TRUE f f f t f t TRUE f f f t f t TRUE f f f f f f TRUE f f f f f f TRUE f f f f f f TRUE f f f f f f TRUEEnergy Use of Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Import Parameters Annual Distillate Use from Water Draw: Eff.

Avg daily vol. of hot water drawn by month (gal/day) Level from Temperature: Tin water heater inlet water temp,oF 0 Tair temp. of air around the water heater, oF 1 Ttank water heater thermostat setting,oF 2 from RECS WH 3

Tank Size (in gal) 50.0 4 5 from User Input: 6

Rebound = 0% 7

den density of stored water (lb/gal) 8.29 Cp spec. heat of stored water (Btu/lb-oF) 1.000743 Annual Electricity Use Eff. PonRated Input Capacitydistributions by tank size Level Tank Size Pon(kBtu/hr) Avg Pon(kBtu/hr) 32 103 100.0 0 50 103 104.0 1 2 3 4 Tanksz Tank size of water heater (gallons) 50 5 iTanksz Tank size index 2 6 Pon Rated input capacity (Btu/hr) 103000 7

PonDistributions by

Tank Size(Based on AHRI February 2010 Directory) 32 gallons 50 gallons Btu/yr % kBtu/yr % 90 28.57% 103 33.33% 103 14.29% 104 33.33% 104 42.86% 105 33.33% 105 14.29%

100.00% 100.00% wt. avg 100.0 104.0 from: Models Data worksheet

Representative Pon (for Rebuttable Payback Calculation) 32 Gal 100000 50 Gal 105000 from: Models Data worksheetAnnual Distillate Use 1 2 3 4 Recovery Qin- A verage Daily

Water Heater Energy Consumption Description EF Efficiency UA Jan Feb Mar Apr 31 28 31 30 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE)0.50 76% 17.74 41661 42013 42508 41433 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.51 76% 16.73 40463 40815 41310 40234 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 0.53 76% 14.81 38201 38553 39049 37972 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.55 76% 13.03 36103 36456 36952 35874 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 0.57 76% 11.37 34153 34506 35002 33924 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 0.59 76% 9.83 32335 32689 33185 32106 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle 0.63 80% 8.74 30012 30348 30820 29794 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle 0.65 82% 8.26 28968 29296 29756 28755

Annual Electricity

Use with Zaux- Electricity use by an Auxiliary

Electric Equipment Description Elec. Paux Pstandby Jan Feb Mar Apr kW kW 31 28 31 30 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE)TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.115 0.116 0.117 0.115 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.112 0.113 0.114 0.111 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.106 0.107 0.108 0.105 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.100 0.101 0.102 0.099 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.094 0.095 0.097 0.094 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.089 0.090 0.092 0.089 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.083 0.084 0.085 0.082 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.080 0.081 0.082 0.079

Eff. Level Slope Constant 20 32 50 100 0 0.0019 0.59 0.55 0.53 0.50 0.40 1 0.0019 0.60 0.56 0.54 0.51 0.41 2 0.0019 0.62 0.58 0.56 0.53 0.43 3 0.0019 0.64 0.60 0.58 0.55 0.45 4 0.0019 0.66 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.47 5 0.0019 0.68 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.49 6 0.0019 0.72 0.68 0.66 0.63 0.53 7 0.0019 0.74 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.55 Rated Volume



### 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80Energy Factor (EF) 

## Efficiency Levels

### 0.4020 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Rated Volume5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 - A verage Daily

Water Heater Energy Consumption(Btu/day) Qin- A verage Daily Orig. Annual May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Water Heater Energy Use Oil Use 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31 (Btu / day) (MMBtu) 39970 35916 31882 32143 34981 35860 37096 40440 37880 13.86 38770 34715 30857 31083 33779 34658 35895 39241 36706 13.43 36507 32448 28925 29082 31511 32391 33629 36978 34492 12.62 34408 30345 27133 27227 29407 30289 31528 34879 32438 11.87 32456 28390 25467 25502 27452 28334 29574 32928 30528 11.18 30637 26568 23914 23893 25629 26511 27752 31109 28748 10.53 28398 24531 22114 22073 23638 24477 25656 28847 26619 9.75 27393 23619 21307 21257 22747 23566 24717 27831 25663 9.40

- Electricity

use by an Auxiliary

Electric Equipment(kWh/day, when calculation does not include elec use of Qin) Zaux- Electricity use by an Orig. Annual May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Auxilliary Elec Equipment Only Elec Use 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31 (kWh / day) (kWh) 0.110 0.099 0.088 0.089 0.097 0.099 0.103 0.112 0.105 38.30 0.107 0.096 0.085 0.086 0.093 0.096 0.099 0.108 0.101 37.11 0.101 0.090 0.080 0.080 0.087 0.090 0.093 0.102 0.095 34.88 0.095 0.084 0.075 0.075 0.081 0.084 0.087 0.096 0.090 32.81 0.090 0.078 0.070 0.070 0.076 0.078 0.082 0.091 0.084 30.89 0.085 0.073 0.066 0.066 0.071 0.073 0.077 0.086 0.079 29.09 0.078 0.068 0.061 0.061 0.065 0.068 0.071 0.080 0.074 26.94 0.076 0.065 0.059 0.059 0.063 0.065 0.068 0.077 0.071 25.97



### 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

### 100w rebound Gas

Oil Annual Rebound Saving Total Coeff. (MMBtu) (MMBtu)

13.86 1.000 0.43 13.43 1.000 1.24 12.62 1.000 1.99 11.87 1.000 2.68 11.18 1.000 3.33 10.53 1.000 4.11 9.75 1.000 4.46 9.40 1.000

w rebound Elec Elec Annual Rebound Saving Total Coeff. (kWh) (kWh)

38.30 1.000 1.18 37.11 1.000 3.42 34.88 1.000 5.49 32.81 1.000 7.41 30.89 1.000 9.21 29.09 1.000 11.36 26.94 1.000 12.33 25.97 1.000Temperatures - (1) outdoor ambient, (2) water heater inlet, (3) indoor household, (4) air surrounding water heater, (5) water heater thermostat setting

Import Parameters season from: RECS WH month Location of Water Heater 1 1 = in heated basement Outside Air TemperatureoF (Tair) 2 = in unheated basement Water Heater Inlet Water Temperature,oF (Tin) 3 = in garage Temp. of Indoor the Household,oF (Thouse) 4 = inside house Temp. of Air surrounding the Water Heater,oF (Tamb) Weather Location Code IPT Water Heater Thermostat Setting,oF (Ttank) Household Has Well 1 Avg Heating Thermostat Temp. 70 Inlet Water Temperature Offset: Avg Cooling Thermostat Temp. 78 with Well Pump (oF) w/o Well Pump - District Water (oF) Index for Weather Location Code 14 ratio = lag = Export Parameters Max dTair = to: Water Draw Seasonal Avg Temp (oF) From NREL : Development of an Energy Savings Benchmark for All Residential End-Uses, Aug 2004 Ttank Tin Tair 1 Spring 120.0 46.9 48.8 Tmains= 2 Summer 120.0 60.2 70.4 3 Autumn 120.0 57.1 51.7 Avg(Tair,month) = 4 Winter 120.0 43.5 28.2

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

0Temperatures - (1) outdoor ambient, (2) water heater inlet, (3) indoor household, (4) air surrounding water heater, (5) water heater thermostat setting

4 4 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecAnnual A vg 25.5 28.5 38.0 49.0 59.5 67.8 72.4 70.9 63.1 51.3 40.8 30.7 49.8 42.4 41.1 42.6 46.5 51.8 57.1 61.0 62.6 61.4 57.6 52.4 47.1 52.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 77.4 75.9 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 71.1 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 77.4 75.9 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 71.1 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120.0 120.0

dist. avg. Offset =2.0651 2.07 2.00 3.01 3.72 0.46 29 46.9

From NREL : Development of an Energy Savings Benchmark for All Residential End-Uses, Aug 2004

(Avg(Tair,month) + offset) + ratio * (max(Tair,month) - min(Tair,month)) / 2 * sin(0.986 * (day# - 15 - lag) - 90)

Annual average air temperature (oF), assumed to be ambient outdoor drybulb temp.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 

### T ambientair

T mainsWater Draw Module

Import Parameters Average Daily Hot Water Drawn by

Month(in gallons/day) from RECS WH season 4 4 1 1 1 Tanksz Tank size of water heater (gallons) 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May

per total # of persons in household 2.00 24.7 24.7 25.8 25.8 25.8 age1 # of children age 0-5 yrs 0.00 age2 # of children age 6-13 yrs 0.00 age3 # of adults age 14-64 yrs 1.00 age4 # of adults age 65 yrs and over 1.00 athome adults at home during day 1.00 dw_adj dishwasher adjustment 

### 0.21 cw_adj clothes washer adjustment 

### 0.46 senior_mf senior-only household in MF home 1.0 no_pay household not paying for hot water 1.0

from Temperature Seasonal Average Temperatures (oF) Ttank Tin Tair Spring 120.0 46.9 48.8 Summer 120.0 60.2 70.4 Autumn 120.0 57.1 51.7 Winter 120.0 43.5 28.2

Coeffients to calculate Water Draw sea_coef Annual Average -1.78 Spring 1.7313 Summer -14.6017 Autumn -4.7189 Winter 10.4688

per_coef 0.901569831 age1_coef 6.8948326 age2_coef 10.43280903 age34_coef 14.87135773 Ttank _coef -0.142231744 Tanksz _coef 0.167870046 Tin_coef -0.195414807 Tair _coef 0.551726365 athome_coef 9.991755182 senior_mf_coef 0.56 no_pay_coef 0.98 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 26

1 2 3 4 5Hot Water Use (gallons / day) 

### Hot WaterUse(in gallons/day)

2 2 2 3 3 3 4 Annual Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.1 24.7 23.6

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month 

### Hot WaterUseRECS household records for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Intermediate Variables LBNL IDNWEIGHT Household ID (LBNL) 7 1 5146.69774 2 22659.8959 for: Location of Water Heater 3 29961.7075 Home has basement TRUE 4 12080.648 Basement heated TRUE 5 14540.7811 Home has garage FALSE 6 13303.0945 Home has crawl space FALSE 7 25355.7066 8 11577.2876 for: Water Heater Tank Size 9 11921.6921 RECS Water Heater Tank Size Index 3 10 17036.8112 1 = Small (30 gallons or less) 22% 11 11185.7851 2 = Medium (31 to 49 gallons) 54% 12 14540.7811 3 = Large (50 gallons or more) 25% 13 11921.6921 6 = Tankless 14 31875.1 Distribution of Medium WH Size 1 15 14027.8891 1 = 32 gal; 2 = 50 gal 16 29556.5138 17 14540.7811 Export Parameters 18 5360.72523 to: Summary 19 13842.4091 RECS household # 141 20 15100.8099 Heating Fuel Type (3 = oil) 3 21 13842.4091 22 24411.0194 to: Energy

Price Trends 23 14168.6612 Division 2 24 3323.50798 25 11921.6921 to: Energy

Prices, Equip Price (sales tax) 26 15100.8099 Division & Large State 2 27 19385.6461 28 37430.2297 to: Discount Rate & Equip Price (markup) 29 34073.7695 retrofit or new? 1 30 11185.7851 1 = retrofit 85% 31 13303.0945 2 = new 15% 32 13303.0945 33 21319.1999 to: Water Draw 34 22736.1725 total # of persons in household per 2 35 36527.7912 # of children age 0-5 yrs age1 0 36 17489.4179 # of children age 6-13 yrs age2 0 37 3708.84224 # of adults age 14-64 yrs age3 1 38 14872.5408 # of adults age 65 yrs and over age4 1 39 24411.0194 adults at home during day athome 1 40 11921.6921 no dishwasher no_dw FALSE 41 24411.0194 no clothes washer no_cw FALSE 42 15945.5573 senior-only household in MF home senior_mf FALSE 43 4756.69048 household not paying for hot water no_pay FALSE 44 14399.1686 45 17618.6747 to: Water Draw, Energy Use, Equip Price, Base Case EF 46 30722.8301 Water Heater Tank Size 50 47 11106.2125 48 14399.1686 to: Temperature 49 5573.0939 Weather Location Code IPT 50 12268.984 Household Has Well pump 1 51 11921.6921 Average Heating Thermostat Temp. 70.0 52 14399.1686 Average Cooling Thermostat Temp. 78.0 53 4142.51108 Location of Water Heater 1 54 37430.2297 1 = in heated basement 55 15223.072 2 = in unheated basement 56 5763.55439 Oil WHsize assignment: If WHsize=1(small),tank size = 32 gal If WHsize=2(medium),tank size = 32 gal (69.2%), 50 gal (30.8%)3 = in garage 57 13422.9422 4 = inside house 58 27534.7595 location choice 1 59 17036.8112 60 30842.5011 Frequency

of Water Heater Location 61 14540.7811 1 = in heated basement 1 1 62 25531.7879 2 = in unheated basement 2 0 63 37430.2297 3 = in garage,crawl space, outdoor closet 3 0 64 4635.33883 4 = inside house 4 0 65 25355.7066 5 = attic 5 0 66 22659.8959 Frequency

of Water Heater Tank Size 67 11185.7851 30 gal 32 0 68 17489.4179 50 gal 50 1 69 28746.9019 70 13303.0945 71 52419.2848 72 22659.8959 73 13303.0945 74 14588.2985 75 24411.0194 76 14540.7811 77 24411.0194 78 12080.648 79 29066.9585 80 25355.7066 81 24411.0194 82 42408.4391 83 29578.178 84 24411.0194 85 11921.6921 86 15100.8099 87 3323.50798 88 27456.3887 89 4635.33883 90 13303.0945 91 4027.00555 92 13553.5161 93 18798.2023 94 12080.648 95 14588.2985 96 30722.8301 97 3323.50798 98 17036.8112 99 14399.1686 100 14588.2985DOEID REGIONCDIVISIONLRGSTATEDivision + Lrg State CD65 HD65 TYPEHUQYEARMADENCOMBATH

34 1 2 0 2 1179 5317 2 3 2 45 1 2 0 2 1139 5658 3 1 1 63 3 5 0 5 947 4055 1 3 1 86 1 1 0 1 962 5834 2 1 2 114 1 1 0 1 764 6549 2 1 3 133 1 1 0 1 249 9089 2 9 2 141 1 2 0 2 913 6004 2 2 1 289 1 1 0 1 920 6299 2 2 2 296 1 1 0 1 687 6831 2 8 2 354 1 1 0 1 763 6273 2 2 1 407 1 1 0 1 533 7292 2 12 1 429 1 1 0 1 1038 5867 2 1 2 511 1 1 0 1 778 6662 2 5 2 525 1 2 0 2 1058 5485 2 2 1 540 1 1 0 1 865 6366 2 4 1 622 1 2 1 10 789 7423 2 5 3 675 1 1 0 1 876 6062 2 3 2 711 1 2 1 10 263 7483 2 1 1 759 1 1 0 1 692 6663 2 8 4 784 1 1 0 1 462 7255 2 8 3 811 1 1 0 1 689 6728 2 5 2 823 1 2 1 10 834 5694 2 6 1 825 1 1 0 1 894 5913 2 13 2 859 1 1 0 1 184 9570 2 4 1 885 1 1 0 1 777 6665 2 4 1 892 1 1 0 1 472 7779 2 8 3 995 1 1 0 1 668 6768 2 5 1 1016 1 2 1 10 825 6481 2 9 3 1042 1 2 0 2 1378 4428 3 2 1 1053 1 1 0 1 383 8009 2 10 2 1216 1 1 0 1 226 9262 2 1 1 1282 1 1 0 1 339 8416 2 1 1 1295 1 1 0 1 1032 5444 4 1 1 1383 1 2 0 2 1108 5691 2 7 2 1423 1 2 1 10 287 7350 2 4 1 1441 1 1 0 1 701 6647 2 3 1 1564 1 1 0 1 720 6596 2 4 1 1629 1 1 0 1 596 6898 4 1 1 1654 1 2 1 10 864 5657 2 3 1 1678 1 1 0 1 794 6633 2 3 1 1711 1 2 1 10 1099 5372 2 3 1 1740 1 1 0 1 783 6516 2 9 2 1754 1 2 1 10 862 7236 2 1 1 1759 1 1 0 1 680 6684 2 5 3 1821 1 1 0 1 1033 5873 2 1 1 1840 1 2 0 2 1195 5600 2 2 1 1855 1 1 0 1 690 6824 5 1 1 1863 1 1 0 1 784 6339 2 2 2 1929 1 2 0 2 1215 5579 3 2 1 1963 1 1 0 1 637 6985 2 2 2 2009 1 1 0 1 739 6734 2 12 2 2029 1 1 0 1 779 6362 2 3 3 2053 1 2 0 2 1928 4318 3 3 1 2087 1 2 1 10 987 6330 2 5 2 2169 1 1 0 1 1045 5396 4 1 2 2191 1 2 1 10 1051 5540 2 5 2 If WHsize=1(small),tank size = 32 gal If WHsize=2(medium),tank size = 32 gal (69.2%), 50 gal (30.8%)2199 1 1 0 1 688 6729 2 1 1

2209 1 2 1 10 884 7331 5 10 1 2216 1 1 0 1 946 5610 2 3 1 2226 1 2 1 10 1276 4950 2 1 1 2273 1 1 0 1 1049 5853 2 5 2 2351 1 2 0 2 1525 4656 2 3 1 2405 1 2 1 10 795 6632 2 1 2 2548 1 2 0 2 1242 5162 2 5 2 2634 1 2 0 2 949 5910 2 10 3 2677 1 2 0 2 1072 5728 3 1 1 2697 1 1 0 1 359 8138 2 2 1 2725 1 1 0 1 677 7007 2 1 1 2734 1 2 0 2 1076 5365 2 6 3 2762 1 1 0 1 217 9326 2 2 2 2765 1 2 1 10 829 6475 2 2 1 2835 1 2 0 2 1095 5705 3 3 1 2868 1 1 0 1 284 8826 2 1 2 2916 1 1 0 1 230 9229 2 3 1 3014 1 2 1 10 983 5790 2 4 2 3078 1 1 0 1 800 6359 2 1 1 3110 1 2 1 10 1062 5500 2 8 4 3111 1 1 0 1 825 6084 2 4 2 3136 1 2 0 2 1045 5530 2 5 2 3209 1 2 0 2 916 5997 2 8 2 3263 1 2 1 10 917 5593 2 2 2 3300 1 2 1 10 1362 4825 4 3 1 3347 1 2 1 10 1049 5548 2 4 1 3370 1 2 1 10 1033 5607 2 7 2 3453 1 1 0 1 955 6338 2 3 1 3466 1 1 0 1 479 7760 2 7 3 3516 1 1 0 1 269 8943 2 5 1 3642 1 2 0 2 1034 5768 3 1 1 3848 1 2 0 2 1371 4878 2 3 1 3850 1 1 0 1 235 9190 2 4 2 3853 1 1 0 1 254 9051 2 3 1 3896 1 1 0 1 523 7073 2 2 1 3923 1 1 0 1 514 8014 2 1 1 3952 1 1 0 1 876 5885 2 1 1 3963 1 1 0 1 238 9169 2 5 1 4100 1 2 0 2 858 6073 2 1 1 4107 1 1 0 1 292 8771 2 4 2 4109 1 1 0 1 820 6177 2 1 1 4169 1 1 0 1 803 6261 2 4 4 4296 1 1 0 1 265 8972 2 9 2Variables to Determine Hot Water Draw per age1 age2 age4 age3 athome

FUELH2OWHEATOTHWHEATSIZWHEATAG E NHSLDMEMPreSchoolC hildren SchoolChild

ren Adults Seniors ATHOME

3 0 3 2 4 0 0 4 0 1 3 0 3 4 5 0 0 5 0 1 3 0 2 5 2 0 0 1 1 1 3 0 2 4 3 0 1 2 0 0 3 0 3 3 5 0 0 5 0 1 3 0 1 3 3 1 0 2 0 0 3 0 3 5 2 0 0 1 1 1 3 0 1 5 4 0 1 3 0 0 3 0 2 4 4 1 0 3 0 1 3 0 2 4 5 0 2 3 0 0 3 0 2 1 4 0 2 2 0 0 3 0 3 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 2 5 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 2 4 2 0 0 2 0 1 3 0 1 3 3 0 1 2 0 0 3 0 3 2 4 0 1 2 1 1 3 0 2 4 4 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 2 2 4 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 2 6 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 3 1 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 2 6 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 0 2 5 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 2 4 4 1 1 2 0 1 3 0 2 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 3 3 5 0 2 3 0 1 3 0 2 5 2 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 2 6 1 3 2 0 1 3 0 2 1 3 0 1 2 0 0 3 0 3 2 4 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 2 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 3 3 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 3 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 2 2 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 1 5 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 1 6 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 2 4 2 0 0 1 1 1 3 0 1 5 3 1 0 2 0 0 3 0 2 2 3 0 0 1 2 1 3 0 2 1 4 0 1 3 0 0 3 0 3 5 3 1 0 2 0 0 3 0 2 4 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 0 2 6 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 3 6 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 3 1 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 2 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 2 3 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 2 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 1 4 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 1 5 4 2 0 2 0 0 3 0 2 3 6 1 1 4 0 1 3 0 3 4 3 1 0 2 0 1 3 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 1 13 0 2 6 4 0 0 3 1 0

3 0 2 6 4 1 0 3 0 0 3 0 2 5 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 3 4 4 0 2 2 0 0 3 0 1 5 2 0 0 1 1 1 3 0 3 1 4 1 1 2 0 1 3 0 3 5 4 0 0 4 0 1 3 0 2 2 5 3 0 2 0 1 3 0 2 5 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 0 2 3 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 2 4 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 2 6 3 0 0 1 2 1 3 0 2 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 2 3 4 0 1 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 4 2 0 2 0 1 3 0 2 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 2 6 6 0 1 5 0 1 3 0 2 2 5 3 0 2 0 0 3 0 3 4 5 0 2 3 0 0 3 0 2 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 1 2 4 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 2 1 4 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 2 4 3 0 0 1 2 1 3 0 1 5 3 0 0 2 1 1 3 0 2 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 1 4 4 0 2 2 0 1 3 0 2 1 2 0 0 2 0 1 3 0 2 2 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 0 3 3 4 0 1 3 0 0 3 0 2 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 2 2 4 0 1 3 0 1 3 0 3 3 4 1 1 2 0 0 3 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 3 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 3 5 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 3 4 2 0 0 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 2 0 0 2 0 1 3 0 2 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 2 4 4 0 1 3 0 1 3 0 3 5 3 0 2 1 0 1 3 0 3 3 3 0 0 0 3 1 3 0 2 3 2 0 0 1 1 1Variables to Determine Hot Water Draw Variables to identify WH Location no_dw no_cw no_pay

DISHWASHCWASHER FOPAY CELLAR BASEHEATBASECOOLPRKGPLC1 CRAWL WELLPUMP

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 9 9 9 0 9 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 9 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 9 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 9 9 9 9 9 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 9 9 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 9 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 01 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 9 9 9 9 0 1 1 1 0 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 3 1 2 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 9 9 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 9 9 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 9 9 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 9 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1Variables to determine temperatures

WeatherLo cationCodeTEMPHOMETEMPGONETEMPNITETEMPHOM EAC TEMPGON

EAC TEMPNITE

AC CXY 68 68 68 99 99 99 ABE 68 68 68 66 66 66 AVL 70 70 65 99 99 99 PVD 65 60 60 99 99 99 ORH 68 68 68 99 99 99 CAR 70 68 68 99 99 99 IPT 70 70 70 99 99 99 BDL 75 60 60 99 99 99 ORH 70 70 70 99 99 99 BDL 62 60 60 99 99 99 PWM 68 60 64 99 99 99 PVD 68 68 65 99 99 99 ORH 60 60 58 99 99 99 ABE 65 65 65 99 99 99 BDL 68 68 68 99 99 99 UCA 68 68 66 73 73 95 BOS 66 66 66 99 99 99 ART 68 50 62 99 99 99 ORH 68 68 68 68 68 68 PWM 68 62 60 99 99 99 ORH 68 62 68 99 99 99 ALB 70 70 70 99 99 99 BOS 60 60 60 70 70 70 CAR 68 64 64 99 99 99 ORH 68 68 68 99 99 99 CON 65 60 65 99 99 99 ORH 65 65 65 99 99 99 ALB 70 70 70 99 99 99 PHL 68 65 65 99 99 99 CON 68 55 68 99 99 99 CAR 65 65 65 99 99 99 HUL 68 62 62 99 99 99 BDR 70 60 70 99 99 99 ABE 70 70 68 70 65 70 ART 65 65 65 99 99 99 ORH 65 62 62 99 99 99 ORH 68 68 64 99 99 99 ORH 67 67 67 99 99 99 ALB 70 70 67 99 99 99 ORH 70 60 60 99 99 99 LGA 70 70 70 99 99 99 ORH 68 60 60 99 99 99 UCA 58 52 52 99 99 99 ORH 70 70 65 99 99 99 PVD 70 70 70 99 99 99 ABE 70 70 60 99 99 99 ORH 70 70 70 99 99 99 BDL 70 70 67 69 69 69 ABE 70 70 74 99 99 99 PWM 69 65 65 99 99 99 ORH 72 72 68 99 99 99 BDL 68 64 64 68 74 80 PHL 70 60 70 99 99 99 ALB 68 68 68 72 72 72 BDR 69 65 65 99 99 99 LGA 68 68 68 99 99 99ORH 75 75 70 99 99 99

UCA 96 96 96 99 99 99 PVD 65 65 65 99 99 99 LGA 72 65 65 99 99 99 PVD 70 64 64 99 99 99 PHL 60 60 60 99 99 99 BUF 68 64 64 72 64 72 CXY 65 65 65 99 99 99 IPT 64 64 64 74 74 73 ABE 70 68 70 99 99 99 CON 70 60 60 99 99 99 PWM 68 68 68 99 99 99 CXY 72 72 70 75 75 75 CAR 69 62 62 99 99 99 ALB 70 70 70 99 99 99 ABE 68 68 70 99 99 99 HUL 65 65 65 99 99 99 CAR 65 55 55 99 99 99 ALB 65 60 68 99 99 99 BDL 70 65 68 99 99 99 LGA 66 62 62 74 74 74 BOS 64 62 62 99 99 99 ABE 70 65 68 71 74 71 IPT 68 68 68 78 78 78 ALB 69 69 69 99 99 99 LGA 74 65 75 99 99 99 LGA 68 68 68 99 99 99 ALB 68 68 63 68 72 70 BDL 65 60 60 99 99 99 CON 70 66 65 99 99 99 HUL 70 70 70 99 99 99 ABE 70 70 70 99 99 99 EWR 74 70 74 99 99 99 CAR 68 60 68 99 99 99 HUL 70 70 68 99 99 99 PWM 70 65 68 99 99 99 BTV 68 68 68 99 99 99 BOS 55 55 55 99 99 99 CAR 70 70 70 99 99 99 IPT 62 62 62 99 99 99 HUL 68 68 68 99 99 99 BDL 68 64 64 99 99 99 BDL 70 70 70 99 99 99 HUL 75 70 63 99 99 99Monthly Mean Temperature by Weather Location

Weather Loc Division + HDD-65 CDD-65 Annual Mean Code State City Lrg States (2005) (2005) Temp Jan BDL CT HARTFORD 1 6219 1003 50.2 25.7 BDR CT BRIDGEPORT 1 5361 1046 52.1 29.9 BOS MA BOSTON 1 5902 888 51.6 29.3 ORH MA WORCESTER 1 6670 714 47.2 23.6 CAR ME CARIBOU 1 9166 236 39.2 9.5 HUL ME HOULTON 1 8989 247 39.9 10.9 PWM ME PORTLAND 1 7218 471 45.7 21.7 CON NH CONCORD 1 7385 602 45.9 20.1 PVD RI PROVIDENCE 1 5824 1010 51.1 28.7 BTV VT BURLINGTON 1 7425 729 45.2 18.0 EWR NJ NEWARK 2 4949 1526 54.5 31.3 ABE PA ALLENTOWN 2 5704 1085 50.6 27.1 CXY PA HARRISBURG 2 5187 1243 53.3 30.3 IPT PA WILLIAMSPORT 2 6038 965 49.8 25.5 PHL PA PHILADELPHIA 2 4735 1530 55.3 32.3 AVL NC ASHEVILLE 5 4083 891 54.8 35.8 ALB NY ALBANY 10 6607 913 47.5 22.2 ART NY WATERTOWN 10 7565 576 45.7 19.5 BUF NY BUFFALO 10 6644 880 47.9 24.5 LGA NY NEWYORK 10 4707 1597 55.1 32.6 UCA NY UTICA 10 7195 709 46.6 21.1Monthly Mean Temperature Data Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 28.8 38.0 48.9 59.9 68.5 73.7 71.6 63.2 51.9 41.8 31.9 39.5 48.9 59.0 68.0 74.0 73.1 65.7 54.7 45.1 31.5 38.9 48.3 58.5 68.0 73.9 72.3 64.7 54.1 44.9 26.0 34.3 45.0 56.3 64.7 70.1 68.3 60.2 49.6 39.6 13.0 24.6 38.1 51.6 60.8 65.6 63.4 53.8 42.8 30.6 14.1 25.9 38.6 51.6 61.0 66.1 63.9 54.6 43.0 31.4 24.8 33.7 43.7 53.8 62.9 68.7 67.2 58.7 47.7 38.3 23.3 33.3 44.6 56.0 64.9 70.0 68.2 59.4 47.8 37.6 30.9 38.8 48.6 58.7 67.6 73.3 71.9 64.0 53.0 43.8 19.9 30.7 43.5 56.5 65.6 70.6 68.2 59.4 47.7 37.1 33.8 42.2 52.3 62.7 71.9 77.2 75.5 67.8 56.4 46.4 29.9 38.8 49.0 59.6 68.5 73.3 71.2 63.4 52.0 42.0 32.8 41.7 52.1 62.0 70.7 75.9 74.0 66.2 54.5 44.3 28.5 38.0 49.0 59.5 67.8 72.4 70.9 63.1 51.3 40.8 34.8 43.2 53.1 63.5 72.3 77.6 76.3 68.8 57.2 47.1 39.0 46.3 54.1 62.0 69.2 73.0 71.8 65.7 55.2 46.4 25.0 35.0 46.6 58.1 66.3 71.1 69.0 60.6 49.3 39.2 21.5 31.2 43.7 56.4 65.0 70.1 68.2 60.2 48.3 38.1 25.9 34.3 45.3 57.0 65.8 70.8 69.1 61.5 50.7 40.2 34.8 42.3 52.2 62.4 71.5 77.1 75.9 68.6 57.7 47.6 23.2 33.3 45.0 57.0 65.9 70.3 68.4 60.2 49.0 38.2Dec

30.8 35.1 34.8 28.9 16.4 17.4 27.6 25.9 33.8 24.8 36.4 32.0 34.8 30.7 37.4 39.0 28.0 26.1 29.8 37.9 27.3Installation Cost for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Import Parameters from: RECS WH retrofit or new? (1 = retrofit, 2 = new) 1

Export Parameters Installation Costs for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters Installation Cost for 50 gal WH Installation Description Retrofit New Cost (2009$) (2009 $) (2009 $) 00.53 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $778.85 00.53 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $778.85 $778.85 10.54 - Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass)$778.85 10.54 - Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $778.85 $778.85 20.56 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass)$778.85 20.56 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $778.85 $778.85 30.58 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass)$778.85 30.58 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $778.85 $778.85 40.60 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $778.85 40.60 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $778.85 $778.85 50.62 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $778.85 50.62 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $778.85 $778.85 60.66 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $778.85 60.66 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $778.85 $778.85 70.68 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $778.85 70.68 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $778.85 $778.85

Installation Cost ComponentsInstall Cost Distribution Min (%-) Baseline $778.85 -26% Source: Based on 1993 TSD installation Costs (see App. 8-A)1993 TSD DataMax (%+) Avg (1998$)Avg (2009$) Min Max Beta AlphaLikeliest value

57% $491.00 $646.24 $478.22 $1,014.60 1.43 185.70 560.75 1993 TSD Data Distribution ParametersMaintenance & Repair Cost for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Import Parameters from: RECS WH Division + 4 lrg st 2

Export Parameters Intermediate Calculations Maint. & Repair Cost for 50 gal WH Maintenance Costs Maintenance Repair Repair Year Average Yealry Maintenance Contract (2009$) (2009$) (2009$) yr Flushing Tank 0 0.53 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $152.81 $0.00 0 1 0.54 - Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $152.81 $0.00 0 Repair Costs 2 0.56 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $152.81 $0.00 0 No repair cost (assumed part of Maint. Contract) 3 0.58 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $152.81 $0.00 0 Note: Maintenance cost analyses are described in TSD, App. 8-B 4 0.60 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam)$152.81 $0.00 0 5 0.62 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam)$152.81 $0.00 0 Maintenance Cost Calculations for Flushing Water Heater 6 0.66 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $152.81 $0.00 0 7 0.68 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $152.81 $0.00 0 Trip Charge Warranty Period (years) 1 Drain and fill tank Total

Calculation of Fraction of Installations w/ Flushing Cost

2009 RS Means Standard Union Labor Costs (2009$)

Crew No. 1 Plum

2009 RS Means Labor Costs Markups (Standard Union)

Trade Plumber

Div & 4 lrg states 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 National Avg.Description

Labor Costs Location FactorsFrequency (yr)Cost(2009$) Applicable? Average Yealry Maintenance Contract (2009$) 1 $152.81 1 $138.89 0

No repair cost (assumed part of Maint. Contract) 0 Note: Maintenance cost analyses are described in TSD, App. 8-B

Maintenance Cost Calculations for Flushing Water Heater Crew Labor Hours Unit Material Labor SubTotal 1 Plum 0.5 Ea. $0.00 $30.84 $30.84 1 Plum 1 Ea. $0.00 $61.69 $61.69

Total FlushedUse ContractorTotal w/CostDistribution Calculation of Fraction of Installations w/ Flushing Cost 10% 25% 2.5% 0

2009 RS Means Standard Union Labor Costs (2009$) Labor Cost Choice (1=Regional; 2=Sample Weighted Avg; 3=National) 1 Laborers Cost per Labor Cost per Labor-Hour per Crew Labor-Hour Factor Bare Costs Incl. O&P 1 Plumber 1 48.75 1.27 $61.69 $92.59

2009 RS Means Labor Costs Markups (Standard Union)

Workers Comp. Aver Fixed Overhead Overhead Profit Total 7.8% 16.3% 16.0% 10.0% 50.1%

Labor Cost Factor Sample Weight 1.18 44% 1.27 24% 1.12 0% 0.97 0% 0.73 2% 0.75 0% 0.66 0% 0.82 0% 1.06 0% 1.66 31% 1.25 0% 0.66 0% 0.72 0% 1 1.34 Bare Costs (2009$) Description

Labor Costs Location FactorsTotal

Unit FactorLabor HoursMaterial Labor Total 1.00 0.50 $0.00 $46.30 $46.30 1.00 1.00 $0.00 $92.59 $92.59

1.50 $0.00 $138.89 $138.89

Total Values including O&P (2009$)Energy Prices (by Division and Large States)

Import Parameters From RECS Household: Div & Lrg State 2

Export Parameters To LCC Summary: 2008 Residential Energy Prices (in 2009$) Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Elec Price($/kWh) 2008 $0.12$0.12$0.12$0.13$0.13$0.14$0.14$0.14$0.14$0.13$0.13$0.12 Oil Price($/MMBtu) 2008 $24.65$25.01$24.84$24.63$24.48$24.31$23.93$23.89$24.65$25.28$25.70$25.982008 Residential Electricity Prices (in 2009$) Div. & $ / kWh Lrg State Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 New England $0.17$0.17$0.17$0.17$0.18$0.18$0.18$0.18$0.18$0.18$0.18$0.18 2 Middle Atlantic $0.12$0.12$0.12$0.13$0.13$0.14$0.14$0.14$0.14$0.13$0.13$0.12 3 East North Central $0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.10$0.10 4 West North Central $0.08$0.08$0.08$0.08$0.09$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.09$0.09$0.08$0.08 5 South Altantic $0.09$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.10$0.10$0.10 6 East South Central $0.09$0.09$0.09$0.09$0.10$0.10$0.09$0.09$0.09$0.10$0.09$0.09 7 West South Central$0.09$0.09$0.09$0.09$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.09$0.09 8 Mountain $0.09$0.09$0.09$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10 9 Pacific $0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.11 $0.11 $0.11 10 New York $0.17$0.17$0.18$0.18$0.18$0.19$0.19$0.19$0.19$0.18$0.18$0.18 11 California $0.14$0.13$0.13$0.13$0.14$0.14$0.14$0.14$0.14$0.13$0.14$0.14 12 Texas $0.12$0.12$0.12$0.13$0.13$0.14$0.14$0.14$0.14$0.14$0.13$0.12 13 Florida $0.11 $0.12$0.12$0.12$0.12$0.11 $0.12$0.12$0.12$0.12$0.12$0.12 U.S. Avg $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.12$0.12$0.12$0.12$0.12$0.12$0.12$0.12$0.11

2008 Residential Oil Prices (in 2009$) Div. & $ / MMBtu Lrg State Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 New England $24.05$24.40$24.23$24.02$23.87$23.71$23.34$23.31$24.05$24.66$25.07$25.34 2 Middle Atlantic $24.65$25.01$24.84$24.63$24.48$24.31$23.93$23.89$24.65$25.28$25.70$25.98 3 East North Central$22.50$22.76$23.07$23.21$23.18$23.12$22.97$23.48$24.32$24.84$24.80$24.41 4 West North Central$22.43$22.69$23.00$23.14$23.11$23.05$22.90$23.41$24.24$24.76$24.73$24.34 5 South Altantic $24.24$24.50$24.39$24.07$23.33$23.03$23.05$23.28$24.13$24.78$25.23$25.50 6 East South Central$23.99$24.26$24.15$23.83$23.10$22.80$22.82$23.05$23.89$24.53$24.98$25.24 7 West South Central$24.19$24.46$24.35$24.03$23.29$22.99$23.01$23.24$24.09$24.74$25.19$25.45 8 Mountain $22.29$22.67$23.68$24.09$24.05$23.97$23.60$23.64$24.44$24.84$24.82$24.25 9 Pacific $23.16$23.56$24.60$25.04$24.99$24.90$24.52$24.56$25.40$25.81$25.79$25.20 10 New York $24.48$24.84$24.67$24.46$24.30$24.14$23.76$23.73$24.48$25.10$25.52$25.79 11 California $23.93$24.34$25.42$25.87$25.83$25.73$25.34$25.38$26.24$26.67$26.65$26.04 12 Texas $24.71$24.99$24.87$24.54$23.79$23.48$23.51$23.74$24.61$25.27$25.73$26.00 13 Florida $24.35$24.62$24.51$24.18$23.44$23.14$23.16$23.39$24.25$24.90$25.35$25.62 U.S. Avg $24.08$24.42$24.32$24.15$23.95$23.74$23.41$23.45$24.24$24.85$25.23$25.43Average Monthly Prices Price Factors 2008 Residential Electricity Price (in 2009$) Residential Electricity Price Factor from 1990-2008 EIA Monthly

Data Div. & $ / kWh Div. & Lrg State Monthly Avg. Lrg State Jan Feb Mar 1 New England $0.18 1 New England 0.97 0.98 0.98 2 Middle Atlantic $0.13 2 Middle Atlantic 0.93 0.93 0.95 3 East North Central $0.10 3 East North Central 0.91 0.94 0.96 4 West North Central $0.09 4 West North Central 0.89 0.91 0.93 5 South Altantic $0.10 5 South Altantic 0.92 0.93 0.95 6 East South Central $0.09 6 East South Central 0.93 0.95 0.97 7 West South Central $0.10 7 West South Central 0.90 0.93 0.96 8 Mountain $0.10 8 Mountain 0.94 0.95 0.97 9 Pacific $0.10 9 Pacific 0.98 0.99 0.99 10 New York $0.18 10 New York 0.95 0.95 0.96 11 California $0.14 11 California 0.99 0.98 0.97 12 Texas $0.13 12 Texas 0.90 0.92 0.95 13 Florida $0.12 13 Florida 0.99 0.99 1.00 U.S. Avg $0.12 U.S. Avg 0.94 0.95 0.96

2008 Residential Oil Prices (in 2009$) Residential Oil Price Factor from 1983-2008 EIA Monthly

Price Data Div. & $ / MMBtu Div. & Lrg State Monthly Avg. Lrg State Jan Feb Mar 1 New England $24.17 1 New England 0.99 1.01 1.00 2 Middle Atlantic $24.78 2 Middle Atlantic 0.99 1.01 1.00 3 East North Central $23.56 3 East North Central 0.96 0.97 0.98 4 West North Central $23.48 4 West North Central0.96 0.97 0.98 5 South Altantic $24.13 5 South Altantic 1.00 1.02 1.01 6 East South Central $23.89 6 East South Central 1.00 1.02 1.01 7 West South Central $24.09 7 West South Central1.00 1.02 1.01 8 Mountain $23.86 8 Mountain 0.93 0.95 0.99 9 Pacific $24.79 9 Pacific 0.93 0.95 0.99 10 New York $24.61 10 New York 0.99 1.01 1.00 11 California $25.62 11 California 0.93 0.95 0.99 12 Texas $24.60 12 Texas 1.00 1.02 1.01 13 Florida $24.24 13 Florida 1.00 1.02 1.01 U.S. Avg $24.27 U.S. Avg 0.99 1.01 1.00Residential Electricity Price Factor from 1990-2008 EIA Monthly

Data

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.01 0.97 1.00 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.06 1.00 0.98 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.04 0.98 0.94 0.97 1.04 1.11 1.11 1.10 1.06 1.00 0.96 0.92 0.98 1.02 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.05 1.02 0.98 0.94 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.02 0.98 0.99 1.02 1.06 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.04 0.99 0.94 0.99 1.03 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.04 0.99 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.02 0.97 1.00 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.01 1.00 0.98 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.05 1.04 1.00 0.96 1.00 1.01 0.98 1.02 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.05 0.98 0.95 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.00 0.98 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.02 0.99 0.97

Residential Oil Price Factor from 1983-2008 EIA Monthly

Price Data

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.05 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.05 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.04 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.00 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.00 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.00 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.02 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.00 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.06 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.05Energy Price Trends (based on AEO 2010 Early Release)

Import Parameters AEO 2010 Residential Energy Price Projection for Electricity and Fuel Oil from: User Options (GUI) 1 Reference Case Fuel Price Projection Index 1 2 High Growth Scenario Census Division 2 3 LowGrowth Scenario

i.e.AEO 2010 - Reference Case (Early Release) Export Parameters Electricity Price Fuel Oil Price to: Summary Trend relative to 2008 (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in cent / kWh) (in 2008$ / MMBtu)

Elec Distillate Ref. High Low Ref. High Low Ref. High Low Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Trend Relative to2008 2008 2007 41.80 41.80 41.80 14.26 14.26 14.26 20.47 20.47 20.47 2007 50.04 41.80 29.18 24.89 2008 1.000 1.00 2008 43.58 43.58 43.58 14.87 14.87 14.87 24.75 24.75 24.75 2008 51.88 43.58 30.44 25.41 2009 0.948 0.73 2009 41.33 41.40 41.33 14.10 14.12 14.10 18.19 18.19 18.19 2009 48.00 41.33 28.75 27.02 2010 0.910 0.73 2010 39.68 39.77 39.57 13.54 13.57 13.50 18.04 18.04 18.04 2010 46.62 39.68 28.17 26.82 2011 0.846 0.73 2011 36.86 37.09 36.50 12.58 12.65 12.45 18.18 17.90 17.76 2011 43.23 36.86 26.49 25.96 2012 0.922 0.78 2012 40.20 40.64 39.27 13.72 13.87 13.40 19.27 18.91 18.67 2012 46.39 40.20 27.61 26.27 2013 0.940 0.82 2013 40.97 41.83 39.67 13.98 14.27 13.53 20.29 19.94 19.51 2013 47.32 40.97 27.91 26.49 2014 0.927 0.85 2014 40.40 41.24 38.92 13.78 14.07 13.28 21.02 20.80 20.15 2014 47.61 40.40 28.14 26.73 2015 0.927 0.87 2015 40.41 41.35 38.42 13.79 14.11 13.11 21.54 21.80 21.15 2015 47.29 40.41 28.28 26.58 2016 0.944 0.91 2016 41.15 42.03 39.12 14.04 14.34 13.35 22.50 22.80 21.91 2016 47.05 41.15 28.67 26.58 2017 0.958 0.94 2017 41.74 43.08 40.21 14.24 14.70 13.72 23.15 23.42 22.46 2017 46.97 41.74 28.69 26.62 2018 0.964 0.96 2018 42.01 43.60 40.34 14.33 14.88 13.76 23.82 24.11 23.13 2018 46.85 42.01 28.67 26.54 2019 0.961 0.98 2019 41.90 43.80 40.15 14.30 14.95 13.70 24.25 24.52 23.59 2019 46.78 41.90 28.67 26.44 2020 0.971 0.99 2020 42.32 44.17 40.26 14.44 15.07 13.74 24.61 24.90 23.77 2020 46.84 42.32 28.82 26.51 2021 0.980 1.00 2021 42.72 44.54 40.96 14.58 15.20 13.97 24.75 25.05 23.60 2021 46.84 42.72 29.05 26.55 2022 0.983 1.01 2022 42.85 44.65 41.28 14.62 15.23 14.08 24.95 25.53 24.07 2022 46.99 42.85 29.15 26.58 2023 0.992 1.02 2023 43.24 44.90 41.63 14.75 15.32 14.20 25.26 25.96 24.30 2023 47.15 43.24 29.38 26.48 2024 0.994 1.03 2024 43.33 45.38 41.15 14.78 15.48 14.04 25.45 26.33 24.39 2024 47.03 43.33 29.66 26.41 2025 0.989 1.04 2025 43.12 45.13 40.57 14.71 15.40 13.84 25.74 26.55 24.00 2025 46.73 43.12 29.56 26.22 2026 0.994 1.05 2026 43.33 44.91 40.72 14.78 15.32 13.89 26.01 27.02 24.96 2026 46.81 43.33 29.56 26.08 2027 1.000 1.06 2027 43.59 44.81 41.18 14.87 15.29 14.05 26.22 27.46 25.28 2027 47.16 43.59 29.66 26.01 2028 1.008 1.07 2028 43.95 45.02 41.34 14.99 15.36 14.11 26.53 27.70 25.40 2028 47.45 43.95 29.77 25.96 2029 1.027 1.09 2029 44.77 45.80 42.07 15.27 15.63 14.35 26.94 27.82 25.48 2029 47.89 44.77 30.02 26.01 2030 1.032 1.09 2030 44.97 45.80 42.45 15.34 15.63 14.48 27.09 28.32 25.64 2030 48.42 44.97 30.28 26.16 2031 1.044 1.11 2031 45.48 46.43 42.84 15.52 15.84 14.62 27.53 28.61 26.04 2031 48.93 45.48 30.39 26.32 2032 1.053 1.13 2032 45.91 46.81 43.29 15.66 15.97 14.77 27.92 29.10 26.42 2032 49.25 45.91 30.58 26.54 2033 1.058 1.14 2033 46.12 47.06 43.47 15.74 16.06 14.83 28.29 29.43 26.76 2033 49.44 46.12 30.67 26.46 2034 1.067 1.16 2034 46.49 47.41 43.82 15.86 16.18 14.95 28.71 29.90 27.17 2034 49.57 46.49 31.01 26.53 2035 1.070 1.18 2035 46.65 47.59 43.97 15.92 16.24 15.00 29.13 30.32 27.56 2035 49.91 46.65 31.14 26.85 2036 1.079 1.19 Note: High/Low calculated based on AEO 2009 Ref/High and Ref/Low ratios. 2037 1.087 1.20 2038 1.096 1.22 For energy price trend after 2035: 2039 1.105 1.23 Electricity - the rate of change from 2025 to 2035 is used 2040 1.113 1.24 Distillate - the rate of change from 2020 to 2035 is used Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 2041 1.122 1.26 2007 50.04 41.80 29.18 24.89 2042 1.131 1.27 2008 51.88 43.58 30.44 25.41 2043 1.140 1.28 2009 48.02 41.40 28.78 27.02 2044 1.149 1.30 2010 46.84 39.77 28.24 27.45 2045 1.158 1.31 2011 43.43 37.09 26.59 26.80 2046 1.167 1.33 2012 46.76 40.64 27.96 27.06 2047 1.176 1.34 2013 47.87 41.83 28.49 27.32 2048 1.186 1.36 2014 48.36 41.24 28.94 27.58 2049 1.195 1.37 2015 48.38 41.35 29.35 27.54 2050 1.205 1.39 2016 48.28 42.03 29.91 27.56 2051 1.214 1.40 2017 48.34 43.08 29.96 27.61 2052 1.224 1.42 2018 48.39 43.60 30.13 27.66 2053 1.233 1.43 2019 48.22 43.80 30.49 27.66 2054 1.243 1.45 2020 48.01 44.17 30.74 27.80 2055 1.253 1.46 2021 47.81 44.54 30.73 27.97 2056 1.263 1.48 2022 48.24 44.65 30.58 28.01 2057 1.273 1.49 2023 48.57 44.90 30.65 27.86 2058 1.283 1.51 2024 48.90 45.38 31.00 27.94 2059 1.293 1.53 2025 48.62 45.13 31.10 27.84 Electricity Regional Price Forecasts

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)

Updated Regional Residential Electricity Price Forecasts - High Growth Scenario (in 2008$ / MMBtu)

25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

2000200520102015202020252030

Electricity

Price (AEO2010)

Reference High

Low 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2000200520102015202020252030

OilPrice (AEO2010)

Reference High

Low

1.1 1.2 Electricity Price Trend

#REF! 1.4 1.6 1.8 OilPrice Trend

#REF!2060 1.303 1.54 2026 48.25 44.91 31.09 27.70 2061 1.314 1.56 2027 48.58 44.81 31.25 27.72 2062 1.324 1.58 2028 48.91 45.02 31.37 27.74 2063 1.334 1.60 2029 49.04 45.80 31.60 27.84 2064 1.345 1.61 2030 49.27 45.80 31.68 27.87 2065 1.356 1.63 2031 49.94 46.43 31.90 28.10 2066 1.366 1.65 2032 50.20 46.81 32.04 28.30 2067 1.377 1.67 2033 50.43 47.06 32.17 28.23 2068 1.388 1.68 2034 50.54 47.41 32.51 28.30 2069 1.399 1.70 2035 50.90 47.59 32.65 28.65 2070 1.410 1.72 2071 1.421 1.74 2072 1.433 1.76 2073 1.444 1.78

2074 1.455 1.80 Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 2075 1.467 1.82 2007 50.04 41.80 29.18 24.89 2076 1.478 1.84 2008 51.88 43.58 30.44 25.41 2077 1.490 1.86 2009 47.98 41.33 28.74 27.02 2078 1.502 1.88 2010 46.49 39.57 28.08 26.82 2079 1.514 1.90 2011 42.92 36.50 26.23 25.81 2080 1.526 1.92 2012 45.76 39.27 27.14 26.03 2081 1.538 1.94 2013 46.49 39.67 27.19 26.13 2082 1.550 1.96 2014 46.74 38.92 27.16 26.20 2083 1.562 1.98 2015 46.41 38.42 26.92 26.01 2084 1.575 2.00 2016 46.00 39.12 27.70 25.97 2017 45.82 40.21 27.76 25.98 2018 45.50 40.34 27.57 25.76 2019 45.21 40.15 27.36 25.58 2020 45.12 40.26 27.48 25.54 2021 45.12 40.96 27.75 25.53 2022 45.65 41.28 27.78 25.55 2023 45.95 41.63 27.90 25.43 2024 45.60 41.15 28.03 25.30 2025 44.97 40.57 27.77 25.01 2026 45.03 40.72 27.88 24.88 2027 45.32 41.18 28.19 24.88 2028 45.61 41.34 28.07 24.70 2029 46.30 42.07 28.05 24.63 2030 46.81 42.45 28.18 24.65 2031 47.30 42.84 28.34 24.86 2032 47.61 43.29 28.49 25.03 2033 47.80 43.47 28.59 24.97 2034 47.92 43.82 28.90 25.03 2035 48.25 43.97 29.02 25.34

Updated Regional Residential Electricity Price Forecasts - LowGrowth Scenario (in 2008$ / MMBtu) 0.8 0.9 1.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

200020102020203020402050206020702080Sample weights44% 55% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. 30.05 25.04 33.42 27.89 35.43 31.82 2007 20.08 20.47 19.60 19.36 20.33 21.67 19.16 20.52 22.57 20.30 31.26 27.30 37.81 28.82 33.84 33.29 2008 24.40 24.75 24.13 24.48 23.56 24.40 24.10 24.48 24.50 24.47 32.28 27.88 33.35 28.65 32.18 32.33 2009 17.94 18.19 17.74 17.99 17.32 17.94 17.70 17.99 18.01 17.98 29.39 26.97 31.56 27.74 32.56 30.94 2010 17.62 18.04 15.95 15.50 16.75 15.66 16.93 15.97 16.71 17.57 29.21 26.23 29.33 28.49 32.43 29.90 2011 17.76 18.18 16.12 15.67 16.89 15.81 17.06 16.25 16.98 17.72 30.09 26.57 31.03 28.84 32.98 31.08 2012 18.86 19.27 17.20 16.75 17.97 16.90 18.14 17.32 19.10 18.84 30.68 26.59 31.18 28.96 33.50 31.47 2013 19.88 20.29 18.28 17.82 18.97 17.98 19.14 18.35 20.08 19.86 30.61 26.61 31.23 28.94 33.82 31.49 2014 20.59 21.02 18.93 18.47 19.66 18.65 19.84 19.04 20.83 20.58 30.50 26.40 31.39 28.92 33.57 31.43 2015 21.10 21.54 19.45 18.98 20.16 19.19 20.33 19.54 20.89 21.08 30.65 26.53 31.91 28.97 33.39 31.64 2016 22.03 22.50 20.39 19.92 21.08 20.14 21.25 20.45 20.96 22.00 30.85 26.80 32.16 29.06 33.22 31.80 2017 22.66 23.15 21.03 20.56 21.70 20.78 21.87 21.06 22.06 22.66 30.89 26.85 31.99 29.13 32.97 31.78 2018 23.32 23.82 21.67 21.20 22.36 21.43 22.52 21.75 22.58 23.32 30.69 26.67 31.98 29.24 32.77 31.68 2019 23.75 24.25 22.10 21.62 22.78 21.86 22.95 22.19 22.85 23.74 30.79 26.80 32.18 29.67 32.82 31.84 2020 24.11 24.61 22.44 21.97 23.14 22.21 23.30 22.50 22.91 24.10 30.91 26.86 32.29 30.07 32.88 32.01 2021 24.25 24.75 22.58 22.11 23.28 22.35 23.44 22.67 23.20 24.24 30.89 26.78 32.49 30.39 32.90 32.08 2022 24.45 24.95 22.78 22.30 23.48 22.55 23.63 22.88 23.20 24.44 30.95 26.74 32.67 30.62 32.89 32.20 2023 24.76 25.26 23.09 22.61 23.79 22.86 23.94 23.14 23.56 24.76 31.07 26.77 33.00 30.53 32.65 32.28 2024 24.95 25.45 23.27 22.80 23.97 23.04 24.13 23.36 23.76 24.94 31.05 26.73 33.21 30.76 32.58 32.26 2025 25.24 25.74 23.55 23.08 24.26 23.33 24.41 23.65 23.93 25.23 31.13 26.76 33.52 31.26 32.82 32.40 2026 25.51 26.01 23.82 23.34 24.53 23.60 24.68 23.88 24.07 25.50 31.26 26.78 33.84 31.77 32.95 32.57 2027 25.72 26.22 24.02 23.55 24.74 23.81 24.89 24.12 24.59 25.72 31.33 26.83 34.21 32.14 33.01 32.73 2028 26.04 26.53 24.34 23.86 25.06 24.12 25.20 24.44 24.89 26.04 31.71 27.08 34.93 32.65 33.18 33.13 2029 26.44 26.94 24.73 24.26 25.46 24.52 25.60 24.83 25.24 26.44 31.99 27.28 35.59 33.13 33.39 33.46 2030 26.60 27.09 24.88 24.41 25.61 24.68 25.76 24.98 25.68 26.61 32.31 27.49 36.26 33.67 33.64 33.81 2031 27.04 27.53 25.31 24.84 26.05 25.11 26.19 25.41 26.18 27.05 32.58 27.58 36.86 34.11 33.81 34.11 2032 27.43 27.92 25.70 25.22 26.44 25.50 26.58 25.80 26.65 27.45 32.67 27.66 37.24 34.44 33.90 34.26 2033 27.83 28.29 26.06 25.58 26.83 25.86 26.96 26.10 26.55 27.82 32.86 27.86 37.54 34.84 34.04 34.49 2034 28.24 28.71 26.48 26.00 27.24 26.29 27.37 26.51 26.94 28.24 33.08 27.93 37.87 35.19 34.18 34.71 2035 28.65 29.13 26.88 26.40 27.64 26.70 27.77 26.98 27.64 28.66

Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. 30.05 25.04 33.42 27.89 35.43 31.82 2007 20.08 20.47 19.60 19.36 20.33 21.67 19.16 20.52 22.57 20.30 31.26 27.30 37.81 28.82 33.84 33.29 2008 24.40 24.75 24.13 24.48 23.56 24.40 24.10 24.48 24.50 24.47 32.29 27.89 33.34 28.65 32.18 32.35 2009 17.94 18.19 17.74 17.99 17.32 17.94 17.70 17.99 18.01 17.98 29.43 26.96 31.58 27.84 32.67 31.04 2010 17.62 18.04 15.95 15.50 16.75 15.66 16.93 15.97 16.71 17.57 29.30 26.27 29.40 28.70 32.67 30.08 2011 17.45 17.90 15.85 15.39 16.58 15.54 16.75 15.91 16.80 17.43 30.31 26.77 31.42 29.15 33.37 31.43 2012 18.52 18.91 16.85 16.39 17.63 16.54 17.81 16.97 18.97 18.50 31.05 26.93 31.66 29.57 34.09 32.00 2013 19.53 19.94 17.92 17.46 18.62 17.62 18.80 17.99 19.63 19.51 31.11 27.10 31.74 29.66 34.59 32.13 2014 20.40 20.80 18.75 18.29 19.48 18.46 19.65 18.87 20.63 20.38 31.23 27.12 32.24 29.88 34.54 32.30 2015 21.39 21.80 19.74 19.27 20.46 19.48 20.63 19.85 21.10 21.36 31.58 27.45 32.78 30.30 34.51 32.66 2016 22.39 22.80 20.74 20.27 21.43 20.51 21.60 20.80 21.49 22.34 31.93 27.85 33.31 30.37 34.48 32.98 2017 22.99 23.42 21.35 20.88 22.03 21.10 22.20 21.42 22.72 22.97 32.07 28.06 33.22 30.53 34.27 33.09 2018 23.66 24.11 22.01 21.54 22.70 21.77 22.86 22.10 23.35 23.65 32.21 28.13 33.26 30.58 34.10 33.18 2019 24.06 24.52 22.41 21.94 23.10 22.17 23.25 22.55 23.31 24.04 32.57 28.43 33.51 31.24 34.22 33.46 2020 24.45 24.90 22.78 22.31 23.48 22.55 23.63 22.74 23.50 24.42 32.62 28.48 33.63 31.62 34.18 33.57 2021 24.60 25.05 22.93 22.46 23.63 22.70 23.78 23.02 23.45 24.57 32.54 28.45 33.92 31.93 34.24 33.62 2022 25.04 25.53 23.36 22.88 24.06 23.13 24.21 23.47 23.45 25.02 32.52 28.35 34.12 32.29 34.51 33.72 2023 25.47 25.96 23.78 23.31 24.49 23.55 24.64 23.84 23.94 25.45 32.78 28.44 34.83 32.32 34.34 33.99 2024 25.84 26.33 24.15 23.67 24.86 23.92 25.00 24.19 24.03 25.81 32.90 28.55 35.46 32.47 34.19 34.10 2025 26.06 26.55 24.36 23.89 25.08 24.15 25.22 24.37 24.37 26.04 Electricity Regional Price Forecasts

(in 2008$ / MMBtu) Oil Regional Price Forecasts (in 2008$ / MMBtu)

Updated Regional Residential Electricity Price Forecasts - High Growth Scenario (in 2008$ / MMBtu) Updated Regional Residential Fuel Oil Price Forecasts - High Growth Scenario (in 2008$ / MMBtu)32.95 28.55 35.80 33.12 34.51 34.20 2026 26.53 27.02 24.82 24.35 25.55 24.61 25.69 24.87 24.79 26.51 33.03 28.54 36.03 33.47 34.55 34.30 2027 26.97 27.46 25.25 24.78 25.98 25.04 26.12 25.37 25.37 26.95 33.00 28.54 36.20 33.79 34.59 34.39 2028 27.21 27.70 25.48 25.01 26.22 25.28 26.35 25.55 25.59 27.19 33.35 28.79 36.66 34.34 34.76 34.73 2029 27.43 27.82 25.61 25.13 26.44 25.41 26.57 25.73 25.73 27.37 33.66 29.03 37.11 34.67 34.90 34.96 2030 27.93 28.32 26.04 25.56 26.92 25.85 27.05 25.98 26.53 27.87 34.00 29.24 37.93 35.32 35.19 35.39 2031 28.22 28.61 26.35 25.87 27.21 26.16 27.34 26.38 26.87 28.16 34.28 29.34 38.49 35.74 35.35 35.67 2032 28.71 29.10 26.83 26.35 27.71 26.64 27.83 26.81 27.44 28.66 34.37 29.42 38.93 36.11 35.45 35.84 2033 29.08 29.43 27.16 26.68 28.07 26.98 28.19 27.11 27.29 29.00 34.57 29.64 39.22 36.52 35.60 36.08 2034 29.53 29.90 27.62 27.14 28.52 27.45 28.64 27.54 27.71 29.46 34.80 29.71 39.57 36.89 35.75 36.31 2035 29.95 30.32 28.03 27.55 28.94 27.86 29.05 28.02 28.43 29.89

Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. 30.05 25.04 33.42 27.89 35.43 31.82 2007 20.08 20.47 19.60 19.36 20.33 21.67 19.16 20.52 22.57 20.30 31.26 27.30 37.81 28.82 33.84 33.29 2008 24.40 24.75 24.13 24.48 23.56 24.40 24.10 24.48 24.50 24.47 32.30 27.88 33.34 28.64 32.18 32.33 2009 17.94 18.19 17.74 17.99 17.32 17.94 17.70 17.99 18.01 17.98 29.35 26.94 31.48 27.68 32.48 30.88 2010 17.62 18.04 15.95 15.50 16.75 15.66 16.93 15.97 16.71 17.57 29.01 26.05 29.06 28.28 32.23 29.67 2011 17.31 17.76 15.71 15.26 16.44 15.40 16.62 15.76 16.64 17.29 29.68 26.24 30.40 28.43 32.61 30.60 2012 18.25 18.67 16.61 16.15 17.36 16.30 17.54 16.69 18.47 18.24 30.07 26.06 30.32 28.43 32.95 30.78 2013 19.10 19.51 17.53 17.07 18.19 17.23 18.37 17.57 19.42 19.09 29.85 25.93 30.54 28.32 33.23 30.70 2014 19.71 20.15 18.08 17.62 18.80 17.79 18.98 18.19 20.03 19.71 29.60 25.57 30.62 28.15 32.95 30.46 2015 20.72 21.15 19.08 18.62 19.78 18.82 19.97 19.17 20.59 20.70 29.74 25.76 30.89 28.20 32.69 30.68 2016 21.46 21.91 19.84 19.37 20.50 19.58 20.70 19.89 20.64 21.43 29.90 25.98 31.32 28.05 32.37 30.87 2017 21.99 22.46 20.37 19.90 21.02 20.10 21.21 20.40 21.60 21.98 29.70 25.84 31.08 28.00 31.85 30.68 2018 22.64 23.13 21.01 20.54 21.67 20.76 21.85 21.08 22.14 22.64 29.39 25.51 30.69 27.91 31.52 30.40 2019 23.10 23.59 21.47 21.00 22.13 21.22 22.32 21.54 22.32 23.10 29.32 25.61 30.82 28.29 31.62 30.46 2020 23.26 23.77 21.63 21.16 22.31 21.38 22.47 21.66 22.76 23.28 29.22 25.60 30.88 28.53 31.45 30.55 2021 23.09 23.60 21.46 20.99 22.13 21.20 22.30 21.53 23.08 23.12 29.22 25.50 31.24 28.96 31.58 30.69 2022 23.56 24.07 21.92 21.45 22.60 21.65 22.77 22.13 22.96 23.58 29.24 25.33 31.48 29.44 31.69 30.81 2023 23.80 24.30 22.16 21.68 22.83 21.88 23.00 22.41 23.19 23.81 29.09 25.12 31.96 29.02 31.39 30.71 2024 23.88 24.39 22.25 21.77 22.92 21.97 23.09 22.45 23.15 23.90 28.81 24.83 31.77 29.17 31.05 30.43 2025 23.49 24.00 21.86 21.39 22.53 21.60 22.70 22.19 23.18 23.52 28.80 24.75 31.61 29.65 31.31 30.47 2026 24.45 24.96 22.81 22.34 23.48 22.55 23.65 22.99 23.45 24.46 28.92 24.75 31.04 30.06 31.29 30.53 2027 24.77 25.28 23.13 22.65 23.81 22.87 23.97 23.30 23.97 24.79 28.84 24.62 31.54 30.01 31.24 30.55 2028 24.91 25.40 23.24 22.77 23.93 22.98 24.09 23.43 24.06 24.92 29.12 24.72 32.38 30.63 31.46 30.91 2029 24.98 25.48 23.30 22.82 24.00 23.04 24.16 23.50 24.20 24.99 29.34 24.83 33.21 31.17 31.64 31.22 2030 25.23 25.64 23.46 22.99 24.25 23.20 24.40 23.74 24.81 25.21 29.66 25.06 33.73 31.64 31.88 31.54 2031 25.59 26.04 23.86 23.38 24.61 23.60 24.76 24.10 25.19 25.59 29.89 25.12 34.34 32.08 32.04 31.83 2032 25.99 26.42 24.23 23.75 25.01 23.97 25.16 24.49 25.69 25.98 29.98 25.20 34.67 32.37 32.12 31.96 2033 26.35 26.76 24.56 24.08 25.36 24.31 25.51 24.77 25.57 26.33 30.15 25.38 34.96 32.75 32.26 32.19 2034 26.74 27.17 24.96 24.48 25.75 24.71 25.90 25.17 25.96 26.73 30.35 25.44 35.26 33.08 32.39 32.39 2035 27.13 27.56 25.34 24.86 26.13 25.10 26.27 25.61 26.63 27.13 Updated Regional Residential Fuel Oil Price Forecasts - LowGrowth Scenario (in 2008$ / MMBtu) Updated Regional Residential Electricity Price Forecasts - LowGrowth Scenario (in 2008$ / MMBtu)Discount Rate

Import Parameters DISCOUNT RATE (Real Interest Rate) FOR NEW CONSTRUCTION ONLY Distribution of Real Interest Rates REAL Gains and Losses for Various Assets from: RECS HH Data

RECS Household #141 Finance Method Share Min Max Mean 1st Mortgage Home Equity Credit CardInstallment LoansOther Residence Other LOC SavingsCD - 6mo.TreasuryCorp AAAStocks Mutual replacement or new? 1 replacement New home (after tax) 100% 0.5% 22.9% 1.6% rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt YearAccounts CDs Sav BondsBonds S&P 500 Fund 0.5% 0.059 0.004 0.089 0.000 0.055 0.000 0.345 0.2%0.1290.1% 0.043 1977 -0.6% 1.2% 1.4% -12.7% -8.0% Export Parameters DISCOUNT RATE (Real Interest Rate) FOR REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT ONLY 1.6% 0.192 0.015 0.084 0.014 0.019 0.014 0.020 1.5%0.061 1.4% 0.033 1978 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% -1.0% -0.4% to: Summary Finance Method Share Min Max Mean 2.5% 0.280 0.026 0.154 0.025 0.019 0.024 0.040 2.5%0.0842.5% 0.014 1979 0.1% -1.9% -1.5% 6.4% 3.7%

Discount Rate 7.6% 1 Home Equity Loans (after tax)3.7%0.4%42.5%3.5% 3.5% 0.244 0.035 0.257 0.035 0.033 0.034 0.053 3.5%0.1533.5% 0.044 1980 -0.5% -2.0% -1.4% 16.1% 10.1% 2 Credit card 2.1%0.0%36.9%5.6% 4.4% 0.147 0.045 0.180 0.045 0.044 0.045 0.057 4.5%0.1494.5% 0.065 1981 5.0% 2.8% 3.5% -13.6% -8.1% 3 Other Installment Loans 1.6%0.0%93.5%0.0% 5.4% 0.043 0.054 0.112 0.056 0.061 0.056 0.067 5.5%0.1775.5% 0.124 1982 6.0% 6.2% 7.2% 13.4% 11.0% 4 Other Residence Loans 5.3%0.2%17.9%5.5% 6.4% 0.020 0.064 0.047 0.067 0.070 0.067 0.075 6.5%0.1276.7% 0.094 1983 5.9% 7.7% 8.6% 18.5% 14.9% 5 Other Line of Credit 0.5%0.1%54.1%5.5% 7.4% 0.007 0.075 0.036 0.075 0.040 0.075 0.033 7.5%0.059 7.6% 0.052 1984 5.5% 6.1% 7.8% 8.0% 1.8% 3.8% 6 Checking Accounts 4.4%0.0%0.0%0.0% 8.5% 0.004 0.085 0.019 0.087 0.060 0.086 0.040 8.6%0.0258.7% 0.090 1985 5.4% 4.5% 7.0% 7.5% 26.7% 20.1% 7 Savings and Money Market 15.3%0.0%4.0% 1.7% 9.5% 0.002 0.095 0.009 0.096 0.055 0.095 0.037 9.4%0.0149.5% 0.089 1986 6.0% 4.6% 5.8% 7.0% 16.3% 12.8% 8 CD (6 month) 8.6%-1.1%6.1% 1.0% 10.5% 0.001 0.106 0.006 0.106 0.052 0.106 0.029 10.6%0.00410.5% 0.068 1987 3.3% 3.2% 4.8% 5.5% 2.1% 3.0% 9 Savings Bonds (Treasury) 1.4%-2.0% 7.8%4.1% 11.6% 0.001 0.118 0.002 0.115 0.058 0.115 0.019 11.6%0.00511.6% 0.063 1988 3.1% 3.6% 4.6% 5.4% 11.9% 9.5% 10Bonds (Corporate AAA) 9.5%-1.5%8.6% 1.7% 12.4% 0.001 0.127 0.003 0.126 0.049 0.125 0.027 12.6%0.00412.5% 0.065 1989 3.0% 4.1% 3.5% 4.2% 25.4% 18.1% 11Stocks (S&P 500) 29.0%######33.4%15.2% 13.5% 0.000 0.137 0.000 0.136 0.044 0.135 0.019 14.7%0.00513.5% 0.019 1990 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% -8.0% -4.3% 12Mutual Funds (stock/bond) 18.6%######23.6% 7.6% 14.4% 0.000 0.147 0.002 0.147 0.087 0.147 0.037 15.7%0.00114.7% 0.040 1991 2.7% 1.6% 3.8% 4.4% 25.0% 17.9% Total 100% wt.avg.7.0% 16.7% 0.000 0.167 0.000 0.156 0.074 0.156 0.017 16.6%0.00315.6% 0.018 1992 2.1% 0.7% 4.5% 5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 22.9% 0.000 0.175 0.000 0.164 0.055 0.165 0.019 17.9%0.00116.5% 0.027 1993 1.1% 0.3% 3.5% 4.1% 6.8% 5.7% Finanace Method # Sampled 12 0.425 0.001 0.176 0.053 0.176 0.019 17.3% 0.011 1994 1.3% 2.3% 4.7% 5.3% -1.2% 0.8% Real Interest Rate for that method7.6% 0.185 0.019 0.185 0.012 18.5% 0.006 1995 2.2% 3.1% 3.9% 4.6% 33.4% 23.6% 0.194 0.023 0.194 0.007 19.1% 0.012 1996 2.0% 2.4% 3.6% 4.3% 20.3% 14.7% 0.205 0.012 0.205 0.007 20.2% 0.009 1997 2.7% 3.4% 4.2% 4.9% 28.9% 20.7% Avg drate for new3.2% 0.214 0.005 0.215 0.005 21.5% 0.007 1998 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% 4.9% 26.4% 18.9% Avg drate for repl.7.0% 0.225 0.003 0.223 0.002 22.1% 0.002 1999 2.3% 3.2% 3.6% 4.7% 18.3% 13.4% 0.236 0.001 0.234 0.003 23.5% 0.002 2000 1.7% 3.1% 2.5% 4.1% -12.0% -7.2% 0.246 0.003 0.246 0.004 25.4% 0.004 2001 1.8% 0.8% 2.6% 4.1% -14.3% -8.7% 0.255 0.003 0.253 0.003 54.1% 0.002 2002 1.3% 0.2% 3.8% 4.8% -23.2% -14.2% 0.263 0.002 0.266 0.000 2003 -0.2% -1.1% 2.6% 3.3% 25.5% 17.9% 0.273 0.000 0.278 0.000 2004 -0.7% -0.9% 2.3% 2.9% 7.9% 6.0% 0.284 0.000 0.285 0.000 2005 -0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.3% 0.293 0.000 0.293 0.001 2006 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 2.3% 12.0% 8.5% 0.369 0.000 0.341 0.000 2007 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4%

0.361 0.000 2008 0.2% -0.7% 0.4% 1.7% -38.9% -25.8% 0.436 0.000 2009 3.6% 1.2% 4.5% 5.7% 26.4% 19.1% 0.443 0.000 Avg. 2.3% 2.2% 3.4% 4.1% 7.7% 6.2% 0.472 0.000 2 X Avg. 4.5% 4.5% 6.7% 8.2% 15.3% 12.5% 0.935 0.000 Min -0.7% -1.1% -2.0% -1.5% -38.9% -25.8% Avg. 3.0%100%3.9%100%10.7%100%6.0%100%4.4%100%8.8%100% Max 6.0% 6.1% 7.8% 8.6% 33.4% 23.6% Min 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Std. Dev. 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.9% 11.5% Max22.9% 42.5% 36.9% 93.5% 17.9% 54.1% Source: Golden West Financial Corporation, Federal Reserve, and Demodaran Online Dist. 1.6% 3.5% 5.6% 0.0% 5.5% 5.5% Sources: Estimate using 1989, 1992, 1998, 1998, 2001, 2004, and 2007 Survey of Consumer FinancesLifetime of Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Export Parameters to: Summary

Lifetime 13.0 years

Source: See Appendix 8-C

Assumptions Lifetime distribution (y ears) Mean min max max percentile 13 6 20 0.95

Calculated Values for Weibull Functions Lifetime distribution (y ears) Beta Alpha Likeliest valueSolver Error 1.91 7.89 11.36 0.0 (Shape) (Scale)Worksheet Cell AddressForecast Name Forecast UnitsDataSet Count Median

RECS WH E51 Tank Size gallon 1 10000 32 Base Case EF C9 Base Case Efficiency 1 10000 0.6 LCC&PB Calcs D6 Lifetime years 1 1000012.438898 Discount Rate D9 DiscountRate 1 100000.0352533 Temperature U6 Outdoor Temp. (Annual Avg) oF 1 1000049.791667 Temperature U7 Inlet Water Temp. (Annual Avg) oF 1 1000051.544717 Temperature U8 Temp. of Inside the house oF 1 1000068.666667 Temperature U9 Temp. of Air around Water Heater oF 1 10000 58.275 Temperature U10 Tank Setpoint Temperature oF 1 10000 120 Water Draw T6 Daily Hot Water Draw (Annual Avg) 1 1000042.064531 Equip Price D12 Markups (baseline) 1 10000 1.572525 Equip Price D13 Markups (incremental) 1 10000 1.247175 LCC&PB Calcs D31 Average Oil Price 1 10000 30.2688 LCC&PB Calcs D32 Average Elec Price 1 10000 0.174 RECS WH D66 in heated basement 1 10000 0 RECS WH D67 in unheated basement 1 10000 0 RECS WH D68 in garage, etc 1 10000 0 RECS WH D69 inside house 1 10000 0 RECS WH D70 in attic 1 10000 0 RECS WH D72 tank size=30 gal 1 10000 1 RECS WH D73 tank size=50 gal 1 10000 0 LCC&PB Calcs E14 Annual Oil Use - level 0 MMBtu 5 0 E 1000020.604881 LCC&PB Calcs E15 Annual Oil Use - level 1 MMBtu 5 1 E 1000020.087441 LCC&PB Calcs E16 Annual Oil Use - level 2 MMBtu 5 2 E 1000019.095426 LCC&PB Calcs E17 Annual Oil Use - level 3 MMBtu 5 3 E 1000018.179138 LCC&PB Calcs E18 Annual Oil Use - level 4 MMBtu 5 4 E 1000017.326583 LCC&PB Calcs E19 Annual Oil Use - level 5 MMBtu 5 5 E 1000016.566101 LCC&PB Calcs E20 Annual Oil Use - level 6 MMBtu 5 6 E 1000015.461402 LCC&PB Calcs E21 Annual Oil Use - level 7 MMBtu 5 7 E 1000014.968289 LCC&PB Calcs F14 Annual Elec Use - level 0 kWh 6 0 F 1000058.021199 LCC&PB Calcs F15 Annual Elec Use - level 1 kWh 6 1 F 1000056.568514 LCC&PB Calcs F16 Annual Elec Use - level 2 kWh 6 2 F 10000 53.79805 LCC&PB Calcs F17 Annual Elec Use - level 3 kWh 6 3 F 1000051.184408 LCC&PB Calcs F18 Annual Elec Use - level 4 kWh 6 4 F 1000048.829627 LCC&PB Calcs F19 Annual Elec Use - level 5 kWh 6 5 F 1000046.552055 LCC&PB Calcs F20 Annual Elec Use - level 6 kWh 6 6 F 1000043.474011 LCC&PB Calcs F21 Annual Elec Use - level 7 kWh 6 7 F 1000042.067975 LCC&PB Calcs G14 Retail Price - level 0 $ 9 0 G 100001258.3097 LCC&PB Calcs G15 Retail Price - level 1 $ 9 1 G 100001271.4588 LCC&PB Calcs G16 Retail Price - level 2 $ 9 2 G 100001284.6079 LCC&PB Calcs G17 Retail Price - level 3 $ 9 3 G 100001314.0305 LCC&PB Calcs G18 Retail Price - level 4 $ 9 4 G 10000 1296.455 LCC&PB Calcs G19 Retail Price - level 5 $ 9 5 G 100001327.5702 LCC&PB Calcs G20 Retail Price - level 6 $ 9 6 G 100001469.7363 LCC&PB Calcs G21 Retail Price - level 7 $ 9 7 G 100001466.4816 LCC&PB Calcs H14 Installation Cost - level 0 $ 10 0 H 10000 621.2189 LCC&PB Calcs H15 Installation Cost - level 1 $ 10 1 H 10000 621.2189 LCC&PB Calcs H16 Installation Cost - level 2 $ 10 2 H 10000 621.2189 LCC&PB Calcs H17 Installation Cost - level 3 $ 10 3 H 10000 621.2189 LCC&PB Calcs H18 Installation Cost - level 4 $ 10 4 H 10000 621.2189 LCC&PB Calcs H19 Installation Cost - level 5 $ 10 5 H 10000 621.2189 LCC&PB Calcs H20 Installation Cost - level 6 $ 10 6 H 10000 621.2189 LCC&PB Calcs H21 Installation Cost - level 7 $ 10 7 H 10000 621.2189 LCC&PB Calcs I14 Total Installed Price - level 0 $ 11 0 I 100001949.1842 LCC&PB Calcs I15 Total Installed Price - level 1 $ 11 1 I 100001963.2821 LCC&PB Calcs I16 Total Installed Price - level 2 $ 11 2 I 10000 1976.151 LCC&PB Calcs I17 Total Installed Price - level 3 $ 11 3 I 100002000.6095 LCC&PB Calcs I18 Total Installed Price - level 4 $ 11 4 I 100001988.6125 LCC&PB Calcs I19 Total Installed Price - level 5 $ 11 5 I 100002014.5097 LCC&PB Calcs I20 Total Installed Price - level 6 $ 11 6 I 100002152.3106 LCC&PB Calcs I21 Total Installed Price - level 7 $ 11 7 I 10000 2152.628 LCC&PB Calcs J14 Annual Maint. Cost - level 0 $ 12 0 J 10000 153.3597 LCC&PB Calcs J15 Annual Maint. Cost - level 1 $ 12 1 J 10000 153.3597 LCC&PB Calcs J16 Annual Maint. Cost - level 2 $ 12 2 J 10000 153.3597 LCC&PB Calcs J17 Annual Maint. Cost - level 3 $ 12 3 J 10000 153.3597 LCC&PB Calcs J18 Annual Maint. Cost - level 4 $ 12 4 J 10000 153.3597 LCC&PB Calcs J19 Annual Maint. Cost - level 5 $ 12 5 J 10000 153.3597 LCC&PB Calcs J20 Annual Maint. Cost - level 6 $ 12 6 J 10000 153.3597 LCC&PB Calcs J21 Annual Maint. Cost - level 7 $ 12 7 J 10000 153.3597 LCC&PB Calcs K14 Annual Repair Cost - level 0 $ 13 0 K 10000 0 LCC&PB Calcs K15 Annual Repair Cost - level 1 $ 13 1 K 10000 0 LCC&PB Calcs K16 Annual Repair Cost - level 2 $ 13 2 K 10000 0 LCC&PB Calcs K17 Annual Repair Cost - level 3 $ 13 3 K 10000 0 LCC&PB Calcs K18 Annual Repair Cost - level 4 $ 13 4 K 10000 0 LCC&PB Calcs K19 Annual Repair Cost - level 5 $ 13 5 K 10000 0 LCC&PB Calcs K20 Annual Repair Cost - level 6 $ 13 6 K 10000 0 LCC&PB Calcs K21 Annual Repair Cost - level 7 $ 13 7 K 10000 0 LCC&PB Calcs L14 Annual Oper. Cost - level 0 $ 14 0 L 10000 602.3223 LCC&PB Calcs L15 Annual Oper. Cost - level 1 $ 14 1 L 10000 590.6494 LCC&PB Calcs L16 Annual Oper. Cost - level 2 $ 14 2 L 10000 569.6428 LCC&PB Calcs L17 Annual Oper. Cost - level 3 $ 14 3 L 10000 549.8793 LCC&PB Calcs L18 Annual Oper. Cost - level 4 $ 14 4 L 10000 531.721 LCC&PB Calcs L19 Annual Oper. Cost - level 5 $ 14 5 L 10000 513.7802 LCC&PB Calcs L20 Annual Oper. Cost - level 6 $ 14 6 L 10000 490.2423 LCC&PB Calcs L21 Annual Oper. Cost - level 7 $ 14 7 L 10000 479.3185 LCC&PB Calcs N14 LCC - level 0 $ 15 0 N 100008064.3313 LCC&PB Calcs N15 LCC - level 1 $ 15 1 N 100007956.0037LCC&PB Calcs N16 LCC - level 2 $ 15 2 N 100007740.7469

LCC&PB Calcs N17 LCC - level 3 $ 15 3 N 10000 7558.607 LCC&PB Calcs N18 LCC - level 4 $ 15 4 N 100007350.6254 LCC&PB Calcs N19 LCC - level 5 $ 15 5 N 10000 7193.491 LCC&PB Calcs N20 LCC - level 6 $ 15 6 N 100007084.2515 LCC&PB Calcs N21 LCC - level 7 $ 15 7 N 100006972.3789 LCC&PB Calcs O15 LCC Saving - level 1 $ 16 1 O 10000 0 LCC&PB Calcs O16 LCC Saving - level 2 $ 16 2 O 10000 0 LCC&PB Calcs O17 LCC Saving - level 3 $ 16 3 O 10000 0 LCC&PB Calcs O18 LCC Saving - level 4 $ 16 4 O 10000 0 LCC&PB Calcs O19 LCC Saving - level 5 $ 16 5 O 10000 128.4415 LCC&PB Calcs O20 LCC Saving - level 6 $ 16 6 O 10000 233.8539 LCC&PB Calcs O21 LCC Saving - level 7 $ 16 7 O 10000 339.1709 LCC&PB Calcs P15 Payback - level 1 17 1 P 0NA LCC&PB Calcs P16 Payback - level 2 17 2 P 23720.5976848 LCC&PB Calcs P17 Payback - level 3 17 3 P 23720.8910865 LCC&PB Calcs P18 Payback - level 4 17 4 P 46240.3209401 LCC&PB Calcs P19 Payback - level 5 17 5 P 53140.5460579 LCC&PB Calcs P20 Payback - level 6 17 6 P 66602.3334693 LCC&PB Calcs P21 Payback - level 7 17 7 P END 83361.8722834 LCC&PB Calcs Q14 Total Oper. Cost - level 0 $ Q 0 100006073.8977 LCC&PB Calcs Q15 Total Oper. Cost - level 1 $ Q 1 100005957.4686 LCC&PB Calcs Q16 Total Oper. Cost - level 2 $ Q 2 100005737.5903 LCC&PB Calcs Q17 Total Oper. Cost - level 3 $ Q 3 100005530.0786 LCC&PB Calcs Q18 Total Oper. Cost - level 4 $ Q 4 100005339.4879 LCC&PB Calcs Q19 Total Oper. Cost - level 5 $ Q 5 100005158.8787 LCC&PB Calcs Q20 Total Oper. Cost - level 6 $ Q 6 10000 4908.385 LCC&PB Calcs Q21 Total Oper. Cost - level 7 $ Q 7 10000 4794.904 LCC&PB Calcs R15 Net Cost - level 1 na R 1 0NA LCC&PB Calcs R16 Net Cost - level 2 na R 2 0NA LCC&PB Calcs R17 Net Cost - level 3 na R 3 0NA LCC&PB Calcs R18 Net Cost - level 4 na R 4 0NA LCC&PB Calcs R19 Net Cost - level 5 na R 5 0NA LCC&PB Calcs R20 Net Cost - level 6 na R 6 201 1 LCC&PB Calcs R21 Net Cost - level 7 na R 7 35 1 LCC&PB Calcs S15 No Impact - level 1 na S 1 10000 1 LCC&PB Calcs S16 No Impact - level 2 na S 2 7628 1 LCC&PB Calcs S17 No Impact - level 3 na S 3 7628 1 LCC&PB Calcs S18 No Impact - level 4 na S 4 5376 1 LCC&PB Calcs S19 No Impact - level 5 na S 5 4686 1 LCC&PB Calcs S20 No Impact - level 6 na S 6 3340 1 LCC&PB Calcs S21 No Impact - level 7 na S 7 1664 1 LCC&PB Calcs T15 Net Benefit - level 1 na T 1 0NA LCC&PB Calcs T16 Net Benefit - level 2 na T 2 2372 1 LCC&PB Calcs T17 Net Benefit - level 3 na T 3 2372 1 LCC&PB Calcs T18 Net Benefit - level 4 na T 4 4624 1 LCC&PB Calcs T19 Net Benefit - level 5 na T 5 5314 1 LCC&PB Calcs T20 Net Benefit - level 6 na T 6 6459 1 LCC&PB Calcs T21 Net Benefit - level 7 na T 7 8301 1 LCC&PB Calcs U15 PB flag 1 - level 1 na U 1 10000 1 LCC&PB Calcs U16 PB flag 1 - level 2 na U 2 7628 1 LCC&PB Calcs U17 PB flag 1 - level 3 na U 3 7628 1 LCC&PB Calcs U18 PB flag 1 - level 4 na U 4 5376 1 LCC&PB Calcs U19 PB flag 1 - level 5 na U 5 4686 1 LCC&PB Calcs U20 PB flag 1 - level 6 na U 6 3340 1 LCC&PB Calcs U21 PB flag 1 - level 7 na U 7 1664 1 LCC&PB Calcs V15 PB flag 2 - level 1 na V 1 0NA LCC&PB Calcs V16 PB flag 2 - level 2 na V 2 0NA LCC&PB Calcs V17 PB flag 2 - level 3 na V 3 0NA LCC&PB Calcs V18 PB flag 2 - level 4 na V 4 0NA LCC&PB Calcs V19 PB flag 2 - level 5 na V 5 0NA LCC&PB Calcs V20 PB flag 2 - level 6 na V 6 0NA LCC&PB Calcs V21 PB flag 2 - level 7 na V 7 0NA ENDMin Max Average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% 32 50 38.0102 32 32 32 50 50 100% 0.51 0.68 0.597307 0.51 0.55 0.6 0.66 0.68 100% 6.075203833.18658712.9638577.737178510.08053712.438607 15.2634120.055743 100%

00.29316780.04798920.00099660.02004340.03525290.06691410.1286918 100% 39.183333 55.348.893592 39.87547.21666749.79166751.091667 55.05 100% 33.34574678.91333452.15999241.62140848.436298 51.5438555.95028563.567363 100% 60.473.55555668.38634164.93611166.53333368.66666770.33333371.888889 100% 44.18333373.33333359.141666 50.92555.233333 58.275 62.562570.008333 100% 120 140 124.2433 120 120 120 128 138 100% 1.0180336174.16609 44.8960310.52903127.60807242.063392 58.5814188.750843 100% 1.5385649 1.945351.60847061.53856491.5460584 1.572525 1.583377 1.94535 100% 1.2202412 1.538461.29042181.22024121.2261842 1.2471751.3018878 1.53846 100% 29.6634 30.5908 30.077 29.6862 29.7079 30.2688 30.356 30.5409 100% 0.1101 0.2028 0.1739 0.1432 0.1443 0.174 0.2016 0.2024 100% 0 1 0.2054 0 0 0 0 1 100% 0 1 0.4838 0 0 0 1 1 100% 0 1 0.3108 0 0 0 1 1 100% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100% 0 1 0.6661 0 0 1 1 1 100% 0 1 0.3339 0 0 0 1 1 100% 7.993931368.11001321.61393711.54832716.28903220.60329325.72541235.439664 100% 7.526909267.49821121.08931111.05473315.78898820.08677425.20250534.907487 100% 6.642903366.34386820.09741110.11466714.82939119.09466924.22997933.744377 100% 5.819863265.27347719.1752539.210827913.931773 18.17829 23.27524 32.75154 100% 5.051692564.27820218.3157298.370827413.11968917.32591422.40493331.754684 100% 4.333081263.35040217.5126627.581456512.33773116.564151 21.5893130.937151 100% 3.883929759.83803616.3610126.941531111.460353 15.4610620.22883629.043662 100% 3.685929458.22546115.8394756.652942111.06131814.96801219.59382128.176584 100% 21.878265184.6157960.78115832.31170845.82260858.01914472.23536999.211631 100% 20.600091182.9574759.30505230.92036644.39815356.56740870.69396597.622593 100% 18.180691179.8285656.51411928.31143341.76192653.79719267.90969694.526204 100% 15.928147176.9272153.91932125.83800639.25452151.18398365.27350291.643359 100% 13.825771174.2294651.50067123.54749636.89242348.828717 62.8747289.121516 100% 11.859033171.7146149.24081321.29821234.71845946.55035960.64308186.722734 100% 10.629769162.1941646.00348719.522413 32.253443.470833 56.8531981.581064 100% 10.08787157.8231944.53738818.72815431.108145 42.06612 55.1119279.206272 100% 1222.69761724.74731327.56511222.69761249.68561258.3097 1397.0181545.9696 100% 1235.0221744.28581341.7176 1235.0221262.28211271.45881413.47191561.5081 100% 1247.34641759.82421354.75081247.34641274.87861284.60791426.55721577.0465 100% 1274.92391781.36261380.21241274.92391303.06471314.03051444.69531611.8157 100% 1258.45061775.82421367.05331258.45061286.2278 1296.4551440.03121591.0465 100% 1287.61441799.36261394.19241287.61441316.03531327.57021459.85351627.8157 100% 1420.86471963.36251533.98731420.86471452.22681469.73631597.96211795.8155 100% 1417.81411970.74711533.90361417.81411449.10891466.48161604.18091791.9694 100% 478.42791316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100% 478.42791316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100% 478.42791316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100% 478.42791316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100% 478.42791316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100% 478.42791316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100% 478.42791316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100% 478.42791316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100% 1701.5152909.64321973.68411754.61681849.45531949.18252070.62552282.8735 100% 1713.83942929.18161987.83651767.15161862.39771963.28022085.85312299.3798 100% 1726.16392944.72012000.86981779.84181875.00921976.14862098.99142313.5374 100% 1753.74132966.25852026.33141808.10481902.62532000.58462123.57612337.5601 100% 1737.26812960.72012013.17221791.11591886.56721988.60162111.85022327.1452 100% 1766.43182984.25852040.31141821.24341916.04742014.47952137.89692353.1689 100% 1899.68223148.25832180.10621957.4287 2052.672152.2631 2279.842504.1496 100% 1896.63163155.64292180.02251954.34562050.97752152.61862280.58792508.0943 100% 153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100% 153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100% 153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100% 153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100% 153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100% 153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100% 153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100% 153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100% 323.99651645.8122 624.9799 404.9343 508.3953 602.2821 715.7517 927.3945 100% 314.03141632.4185 613.616 394.1679 497.46 590.6445 704.3279 914.6144 100% 295.16871607.1473 592.1304 374.2192 476.6581 569.6307 682.458 890.4428 100% 277.6069 1583.714 572.1555 354.6825 457.5718 549.8705 662.2259 867.4278 100% 261.21581561.9251 553.5372 336.5068 440.1578 531.6959 643.0238 847.3411 100% 245.88231541.6135 536.1419 319.1714 423.4246 513.749 625.0876 828.5575 100% 236.29521464.6518 511.1869 305.4055 404.0874 490.2404 595.4208 788.147 100% 232.06891429.3173 499.8857 299.1841 395.2612 479.2628 582.1025 769.9639 100% 3303.979629181.8368628.7464 5028.4176516.12038064.122510074.35214242.602 100% 3280.176328894.7158518.26534964.5891 6435.9927955.24649947.824514045.112 100%3224.062728335.6898295.65624836.03756262.65987740.50439683.162613701.643 100% 3188.0004 27823.18102.04384724.83896118.86877558.21569453.328513400.402 100% 3094.855927325.7587884.68994576.84625943.35427350.1675 9186.44213063.334 100% 3052.3731 26885.47721.04684478.71255825.14247193.39218995.230412794.552 100% 3145.928625774.1637587.22144506.49245786.23667083.97288807.037912393.288 100% 3121.517925211.3837463.22534450.84065703.56186971.81998658.942212165.561 100%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100% 0 902.1613 53.7818 0 0 0 0 293.8267 100% 01733.0556 100.9152 0 0 0 0 555.5894 100% 0 2525.919 203.0592 0 0 0 328.7892 831.3461 100% 03242.2642 294.5802 0 0 128.3713 507.07861055.9956 100% -89.97824029.0906 390.8787 0 0 233.8351 652.05511318.8338 100% -59.0494435.2516 495.38 0 86.5553 338.7717 780.58471507.9583 100% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0% 0.3734677 1.109889 0.61240.4673334 0.5476560.59768480.6687081 0.78477 24% 0.45949711.79670150.91096140.58912120.71564090.89102721.07842931.2900524 24%

00.73846080.2197989 0 00.32094010.42398210.5164062 46% 0.25957862.82839950.71239280.33201910.40790920.54605790.75497911.9352693 53% 1.053105116.7999833.2973345 1.5247131.91569412.33340334.14997488.0112653 67%

010.9435792.0683205 01.39881671.87228342.58115215.2101466 83% 1514.0398 27148.066655.06243120.74184561.44276073.85068069.463312233.015 100% 1477.8522 26845.16530.42883043.57974465.14245957.35587921.484812026.389 100% 1391.237626273.4786294.78642895.63384281.77855737.4606 7644.6111670.296 100% 1307.117125743.4286075.71242759.86484107.74945529.4442 7393.98811325.336 100% 1228.604625250.5755871.51772632.68313951.74635339.37257162.314611016.893 100% 1155.157424791.1365680.73542514.5326 3798.8835157.45736942.244610725.928 100% 1107.2359 23546.955407.1152 2396.7063621.1875 4908.0276611.169210194.003 100% 1086.064122978.1845283.20282346.84543538.33824794.8487 6457.3239954.6706 100% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 76% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 76% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 54% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 47% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 33% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 17% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 24% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 24% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 46% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 53% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 65% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 83% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 76% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 76% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 54% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 47% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 33% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 17% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

### Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Simulation Results: Input to NIA rebound = 0%

(MMBtu) (kWh) 

### 0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) 0.53 21.6 60.8 1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.54 21.1 59.3 2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 0.56 20.1 56.5 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.58 19.2 53.9 4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 0.60 18.3 51.5 5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 0.62 17.5 49.2 6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle 0.66 16.4 46.0 7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle 0.68 15.8 44.5

All dollar values are in 2009 $ Annual Elec Use Eff. Level Description Annual Oil Use EF

### rebound = 10%

(MMBtu) (kWh) ($) ($) ($) 

### 21.6 60.8 $1,974 $157 $0 0.0% 21.1 59.5 $1,988 $157 $0 23.7% 20.2 56.9 $2,001 $157 $0 0.0% 19.4 54.6 $2,026 $157 $0 22.5% 18.6 52.4 $2,013 $157 $0 6.9% 17.9 50.4 $2,040 $157 $0 13.5% 16.9 47.5 $2,180 $157 $0 16.8% 16.4 46.2 $2,180 $157 $0 16.6% %of total Annual Oil Use Annual

Elec Use Total

Installed Price Annual

Repair Cost Annual Maint. Cost