Energy Conservation Standards f

Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and 

ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

Building Technologies Progra

m

Office o

f Energy Efficiency and Renewable E

U.S. Department of Energy

September 30, 2004

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
ANOPR Analyses Flow Diagra

Screeni

n

g

Analysis

Engineeri

n

g

Analysis

Energy Use & End-Use LoadCharacterization

ShipmentsAnalysis

Markups forEquipmentPriceDeterminati

o

n

Life-Cycl

e

Cost an

d

Payback Period Analyses

Market & Technology Assessme

nt

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
Purpose

 National Impact Analysis

• To estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from hig

standards levels.

• To estimate the national economic impact on the nation 

Value (NPV)) from higher efficiency standards levels.

 Shipments Analysis

• To estimate commercial unitary air conditioner shipment

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
ANOPR Issues for Public Comm

 Candidate Standards Levels (ANOPR Issue #3) Effective Date of New Standards and Phaseout D

Refrigerant (ANOPR Issue #15)

 Maximum Market Share of Commercial Unitary A

Equipment (ANOPR Issue #12)

 Future Building Types using Commercial Unitary 

equipment (ANOPR Issue #13)

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
Example of National Energy Savings 

≥65,000 Btu/h and <135,000 Btu/h, 11

Annual Energy Sa

vings

0.000.010.020.030.04

200

8

2011 201

4

2

017

2020 2023 202

6 202

9

2

Ye

ar

Energy Savings (Quads)

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
Example of Net Present Value Re

≥65,000 Btu/h and <135,000 Btu/h, 11

Annual V

alu

e

s

-$0.4-$0.3-$0.2-$0.1

$0.0$0.1$0.2$0.3$0.4

2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 

Ye

ar

Billion of 2001$

Discounted Annual Values

-$0.4-$0.3-$0.2-$0.1

$0.0$0.1$0.2$0.3$0.4

2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 

Year

Billion of 2001$

N

PV = $

0.93 billi

o

n at 

7

% discou

nt rate

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
Process Flowchart

Shipments Mod

el

National EnergySaving

s

NationalEconomicImpacts

LCC Analy

sis 

Results andOther Inputs

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
Inputs

 Total Installed Cost

• Average per unit values as a function of efficiency level taken from LCC an• Future values are adjusted with efficiency trends

 Repair and Maintenance Costs

• Average per unit values as a function of efficiency level taken from LCC an• Future values are adjusted with efficiency trends

 Annual Energy Use

• Weighted-average per unit values as a function of efficiency level taken fro• Future values are adjusted with efficiency trends

 Efficiency Trends

• Developed for the base case (without standards) and each standards case• Future trends based upon historical shipment-weighted efficiency data for 

conditioning equipment from ARI

 Energy Prices

• Weighted-average marginal prices taken from LCC analysis• Future marginal prices are adjusted according to trend forecasted by the 2

 Electricity Site-to-Source Conversion Factors

• Conversion factors forecasted by 2003 Annual Energy Outlook• Factors vary annually and account for generation, distribution, and transm

 Discount Rate

• 7% and 3% real from OMB’s Regulatory Analysis Guideline A-4

 Present Year

• Future expenses are discounted to the year 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
Input Examples to the National Impact 

Per Unit Total Installed Costs and Annual 

Annu

$6,000$7,000$8,000$9,000

$10,000$11,000$12,000$13,000$14,000

9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5

EER

TotalInstalled Cost per Unit (2001$)

65-135

kBtu/h

135-240 kBtu/h

Total Installed Cost

100001500020000250003000035000

9.0 9.5 10

Annual Energy Use per Unit (kWh/yr)

65-135

kBtu/h

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
Shipments Model

Input Data Source/D

Commercial Building Data

Forecasted New Construction: 2001-2025 U.S. DOE-EIA, 2003 Annual Energy OuHistorical Saturation: 1969-2000 U.S. Census Bureau, Current Industrial 

Conditioning, and Warm Air Heating Eq

Replacements driven by Equipment Lifetime From Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (15 year Business Income Building Owners and Managers Associ

Historical Experience Exchange Repor

Calibration DataHistorical Shipments U.S. Census Bureau, Current Industrial 

Conditioning, and Warm Air Heating Eq

Historical New Construction: 1980-2000 U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical AbstracForecasted Stock: 2000-2025 U.S. DOE-EIA, 2003 Annual Energy OuHistorical Stock: 1979-1999 U.S. DOE, Commercial Building Energy 

Market Saturation Data (percent of floor space with unitary a/c) and ReplaPurchase Decision DataTotal Installed Cost, Annual Operating Cost From Life-Cycle Cost Analysis

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
Maximum Saturation of

Commercial Unitary Air-Conditioning E

(ANOPR Issue #12)

Saturation (or market penetration) is defined as the percefloor space that uses commercial unitary air-conditioning range of 65 to 240 kBtu/h.Historical shipments and market data indicate that the cupenetration is approximately 12 percent.The shipments model estimates a maximum saturation oapproximately 10 percent for each equipment class).

The Department seeks comments on its estimate of 1maximum saturation for each equipment class.

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
Future Building Types using

Commercial Unitary Air-Conditioning E

(ANOPR Issue #13)

Future shipments depend in large part on growth in new space. The average growth rate of new construction is prAnnual Energy Outlook.The shipments model used the new construction growth differentiating by building type. If new commercial unitary shipments are preferentially installed in specific building toffice), then the shipments forecasts may be altered. 

For the purpose of forecasting equipment shipmentsseeks comments on whether growth rates of individushould be used rather than average new construction 

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
Candidate Standards Levels (ANOPR 

and Effective Date of New Standards and P

R-22 Refrigerant (ANOPR Issue 

The Department seeks comments on these standards sThe Department seeks comments on whether the effecstandards should coincide with the phaseout of R-22.

Candidate standard levels ranging from 10.0 to 12.0 EER hThe Department has also analyzed as a candidate standarlevels established by ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-1999The Department has identified possible alternative standar(1) an effective date for standards that is coincident with thR-22 and (2) a two-tier standard (i.e., a moderate increase standard with an early effective date followed by a more streffective at a later date).

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
Other National Impact Analysis Is

The Department seeks comments and recommendastakeholders on any other aspects related to the NaAnalysis.

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J
Other ANOPR Issues

The Department seeks comments and recommendastakeholders on any other aspects of the CommercConditioner and Heat Pump ANOPR analyses.

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 25J