ref2014.d102413a **2011 2012**  **2013 2014**  

### ReportAnnual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Scenarioref2014 Datekeyd102413a Release Date December 2013



## 20. Macroeconomic Indicators (billion 2005 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted) **Indicators 2011**  **2012 2013**  **2014** Real Gross Domestic Product 13299 13593 13843 14232 Components of Real Gross Domestic Product Real Consumption 9429 9603 980710039 Real Investment 1744 1914 2050 2220 Real Government Spending 2524 2481 2412 2420 Real Exports 1777 1837 1875 1964 Real Imports 2185 2238 2281 2380 Energy Intensity (thousand Btu per 2005 dollar of GDP) Delivered Energy 5.29 5.08 5.09 4.95 **Total Energy 7.30**  **6.99 6.97**  **6.79** Price Indices GDP Chain-type Price Index (2005=1.000) 1.134 1.154 1.171 1.192 Consumer Price Index (1982-84=1.00) All-urban 2.25 2.30 2.33 2.37 Energy Commodities and Services 2.44 2.46 2.38 2.37 Wholesale Price Index (1982=1.00) All Commodities 2.01 2.02 2.05 2.07 Fuel and Power 2.16 2.12 2.16 2.17 Metals and Metal Products 2.26 2.20 2.19 2.24 Industrial Commodities excluding Energy 1.93 1.94 1.97 2.00 Interest Rates (percent, nominal) Federal Funds Rate 0.10 0.14 0.15 0.20 10-Year Treasury Note 2.79 1.80 1.89 2.54 AA Utility Bond Rate 4.78 3.83 4.02 4.92 Value of Shipments (billion 2005 dollars) Non-Industrial and Service Sectors 21240213592169922224**Total Industrial 5926**  **6147 6344**  **6616**

Agriculture, Mining, and Construction 1556 1623 1711 1846 Manufacturing 4370 4525 4632 4770 Energy-Intensive 1599 1616 1637 1673 Non-Energy-Intensive 2772 2909 2995 3097 **Total Shipments 27166** **27506 28043** **28840** Population and Employment (millions) Population, with Armed Forces Overseas 312.3 314.6 317.0 319.5 Population, aged 16 and over 247.0 249.2 251.4 253.6 Population, over age 65 41.7 43.4 44.9 46.4 Employment, Nonfarm 131.5 133.7 135.7 137.9 Employment, Manufacturing 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 Key Labor Indicators Labor Force (millions) 153.6 155.0 155.8 157.3 Nonfarm Labor Productivity (2005=1.00) 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 Unemployment Rate (percent) 8.93 8.08 7.61 7.21
Key Indicators for Energy Demand Real Disposable Personal Income 10150103041040810755 Housing Starts (millions) 0.66 0.84 1.05 1.31 Commercial Floorspace (billion square feet) 81.7 82.4 82.9 83.5 Unit Sales of Light-Duty Vehicles (millions) 12.73 14.43 15.26 15.64 GDP = Gross domestic product. Btu = British thermal unit. - - = Not applicable. Sources: 2011 and 2012: IHS Global Insight, Global Insight Industry and Employment models, May 2013. Projections: U.S. Energy Information Administration, AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System run ref2014.d102413a.**2015 2016**  **2017 2018**  **2019 2020**  **2021 2022**  **2023** 

### Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Reference case

**2015 2016**  **2017 2018**  **2019 2020**  **2021 2022**  **2023** 14693 1515415589159871637816753 17113 1748717885 1028810573 10865 111261136611592 11811 12031 12262 2446 2594 2682 2748 2816 2876 2929 2995 3073 2415 2414 2420 2428 2435 2443 2445 2450 2457 2080 2228 2379 2535 2698 2863 3038 3225 3427 2487 2593 2687 2772 2850 2925 3004 3095 3198

4.85 4.76 4.67 4.57 4.48 4.40 4.32 4.24 4.15 **6.65 6.50**  **6.37 6.25**  **6.13 6.01**  **5.91 5.80**  **5.70**

1.211 1.230 1.248 1.267 1.286 1.307 1.328 1.351 1.374 2.41 2.45 2.49 2.53 2.58 2.63 2.68 2.73 2.79 2.34 2.34 2.37 2.43 2.49 2.55 2.62 2.69 2.76 2.08 2.11 2.13 2.16 2.19 2.22 2.25 2.28 2.32 2.14 2.17 2.22 2.30 2.38 2.42 2.49 2.56 2.64 2.31 2.35 2.37 2.39 2.41 2.43 2.45 2.47 2.49 2.03 2.06 2.08 2.10 2.12 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.21

0.12 1.53 3.46 3.93 3.90 3.85 3.88 3.94 3.96 2.90 3.56 4.03 4.16 4.15 4.14 4.18 4.23 4.24 5.10 5.75 6.39 6.58 6.60 6.60 6.64 6.70 6.72

228732355624250248782547526033265932717227790**7014 7341**  **7541 7683**  **7814 7960**  **8112 8271**  **8440**

2011 2122 2163 2187 2210 2226 2229 2241 2260 5003 5218 5378 5497 5605 5735 5882 6029 6180 1730 1779 1826 1860 1896 1931 1965 1996 2026 3273 3439 3553 3636 3709 3803 3917 4033 4153 **29887 30896** **31792 32562** **33289 33994** **34705 35442** **36230**

321.9 324.4 326.9 329.4 332.0 334.5 337.0 339.5 342.0 255.9 258.1 260.3 262.4 264.6 266.7 268.8 271.0 273.1 47.9 49.5 51.0 52.7 54.4 56.2 58.0 59.9 61.7 140.5 143.1 145.2 146.5 147.5 148.4 148.9 149.5 150.3 12.4 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9

158.6 159.8 161.0 162.0 162.8 163.5 164.3 165.0 165.7 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.33 6.64 6.12 5.80 5.63 5.55 5.49 5.45 5.44 5.38

11093 114461182612135 12429 1271012953 1320413479 1.68 1.75 1.74 1.75 1.77 1.75 1.70 1.68 1.68 84.2 85.0 86.0 87.0 88.1 89.1 90.1 91.1 92.1 16.17 16.73 16.72 16.46 16.32 16.23 16.21 16.21 16.21

May 2013. Projections: U.S. Energy Information Administration, AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System run ref2014.d102413a.**2024 2025**  **2026 2027**  **2028 2029**  **2030 2031**  **2032**

**2024 2025**  **2026 2027**  **2028 2029**  **2030 2031**  **2032** 1831618769 19232 196902015420637211392163922139 12511 12773 13052 1333413623 13922 142201452414840 3165 3269 3373 3463 3545 3637 3740 3845 3927 2473 2495 2518 2543 2568 2593 2623 2647 2674 3640 3857 4080 4307 4545 4795 5056 5329 5612 3320 3453 3598 3744 3892 4048 4213 4389 4567

4.06 3.97 3.88 3.80 3.71 3.63 3.54 3.47 3.39 **5.58 5.46**  **5.34 5.22**  **5.11 5.00**  **4.89 4.78**  **4.67**

1.397 1.421 1.446 1.471 1.497 1.525 1.553 1.584 1.616 2.84 2.90 2.95 3.01 3.07 3.14 3.20 3.27 3.35 2.84 2.91 2.99 3.07 3.14 3.23 3.33 3.43 3.52 2.36 2.40 2.44 2.48 2.52 2.57 2.62 2.67 2.71 2.74 2.82 2.90 2.99 3.07 3.18 3.30 3.42 3.52 2.53 2.56 2.60 2.64 2.68 2.72 2.77 2.81 2.86 2.23 2.26 2.29 2.32 2.35 2.38 2.41 2.44 2.48

3.98 3.99 3.99 4.01 4.05 4.10 4.14 4.17 4.18 4.25 4.24 4.23 4.24 4.27 4.31 4.36 4.39 4.40 6.74 6.74 6.73 6.74 6.78 6.83 6.88 6.91 6.95

283752894729535301083066931224317823233732877**8600 8778**  **8955 9113**  **9252 9389**  **9537 9679**  **9795**

2281 2311 2335 2350 2355 2368 2389 2403 2403 6319 6467 6620 6763 6897 7020 7148 7277 7392 2054 2081 2104 2127 2146 2158 2171 2185 2199 4265 4386 4516 4637 4750 4862 4977 5091 5194 **36975 37725** **38490 39221** **39920 40613** **41319 42017** **42672**

344.5 347.0 349.4 351.9 354.3 356.7 359.0 361.3 363.6 275.2 277.2 279.2 281.2 283.3 285.5 287.6 289.8 291.9 63.5 65.3 67.0 68.7 70.2 71.7 73.0 74.0 74.8 151.1 152.2 153.5 154.7 156.0 157.2 158.6 159.6 160.6 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.2

166.4 166.9 167.6 168.3 169.1 170.0 170.9 171.9 172.9 1.36 1.39 1.42 1.44 1.47 1.50 1.53 1.56 1.59 5.34 5.29 5.22 5.18 5.15 5.13 5.10 5.08 5.07

13812 14162 1450914852 1519815551 1592616281 16638 1.68 1.72 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.70 1.71 1.69 1.65 93.0 93.9 94.8 95.7 96.5 97.3 98.2 99.0 100.0 16.26 16.55 16.81 17.01 17.14 17.19 17.23 17.27 17.31**2033 2034**  **2035 2036**  **2037 2038**  **2039 2040** 

**2033 2034**  **2035 2036**  **2037 2038**  **2039 2040** **2012-2040** 2265923200237512431524888254772606326670 2% 15159 15488158281617816534168981726717635 2.2% 4029 4151 4274 4403 4530 4663 4787 4925 3.4% 2700 2726 2754 2784 2814 2846 2879 2917 0.6% 5906 6207 6516 6833 7160 7497 7835 8186 5.5% 4754 4954 5167 5390 5617 5850 6086 6328 3.8%

3.32 3.25 3.18 3.12 3.06 3.00 2.94 2.88 -2.0% **4.58 4.48**  **4.39 4.30**  **4.22 4.14**  **4.06 3.99**  **-2.0%**

1.649 1.683 1.719 1.755 1.793 1.832 1.872 1.913 1.8% 3.43 3.51 3.59 3.68 3.77 3.86 3.95 4.05 2.1% 3.63 3.74 3.86 4.00 4.13 4.25 4.40 4.56 2.2% 2.77 2.83 2.89 2.95 3.01 3.06 3.13 3.21 1.7% 3.65 3.78 3.92 4.09 4.22 4.35 4.52 4.73 2.9% 2.90 2.95 2.99 3.04 3.08 3.13 3.18 3.22 1.4% 2.51 2.55 2.59 2.63 2.67 2.70 2.74 2.78 1.3%

4.18 4.18 4.20 4.23 4.23 4.21 4.21 4.22 - - 4.42 4.43 4.45 4.49 4.50 4.49 4.50 4.52 - - 6.98 7.01 7.05 7.09 7.12 7.12 7.16 7.22 - -

3341133947344803502035563361003662637135 2.0%**9924 10082** **10241 10402** **10564 10716** **10855 10994**  **2.1%**

2413 2436 2457 2477 2498 2513 2529 2551 1.6% 7511 7646 7784 7925 8066 8203 8325 8443 2.3% 2211 2225 2238 2250 2267 2284 2295 2303 1.3% 5300 5421 5547 5675 5799 5919 6031 6140 2.7% **43335 44029** **44721 45422** **46127 46816** **47480 48129**  **2%**

365.8 368.0 370.2 372.3 374.4 376.5 378.5 380.5 0.7% 293.9 295.9 297.9 299.9 301.8 303.6 305.5 307.3 0.8% 75.7 76.5 77.5 78.3 78.8 79.2 79.5 79.8 2.2% 161.6 162.7 163.7 164.8 165.9 167.0 168.1 169.2 0.8% 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.0 -0.3%

173.9 174.9 175.8 176.8 177.8 179.0 180.1 181.2 0.6% 1.62 1.65 1.68 1.71 1.75 1.78 1.81 1.85 1.8% 5.07 5.07 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.10 5.12 - -

1699717368177491813818535 18933 1932619724 2.3% 1.64 1.65 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.65 1.66 2.5% 100.9 102.0 103.1 104.2 105.4 106.6 107.7 108.9 1.0% 17.31 17.36 17.45 17.54 17.66 17.78 17.87 17.93 0.8%