WORLD BIOFUELS
322 / World Biofuels: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook

World Ethanol

The world ethanol price increased 12.5% in 2008, to $1.74 per gallon. It decreased 8%, to $1.6 per gallon, in 2009 

because of the 37% drop in crude oil prices coupled with an almost 60% reduction in U.S. ethanol net imports. 

The ethanol price increases almost 9% over the projection period, mostly because of higher ethanol demand from 

the U.S. brought about by the renewable fuels mandates. World net trade increased 10.8% in 2008 but declined 

8.2% in 2009. As world demand for ethanol increases over the projection period, net trade is expected to rise 

323.2%, reaching 4.1 billion gallons by 2019. 

Brazil’s ethanol production totaled almost 7 billion gallons in 2009, an increase of 0.9%. This translates into 

333.3 mmt of sugarcane used in ethanol production. Production of ethanol in Brazil increases 96.8% by the end 

of the projection period, to 13.6 billion gallons. Sugarcane used in ethanol production increases 71.8%, reaching 

572.8 mmt by 2019. Brazil’s ethanol consumption increased in 2009 by 7.7%, to 6.4 billion gallons. Its ethanol 

consumption is projected to increase 48.7% by 2019. Brazil’s net ethanol exports reach 4.1 billion gallons in 

2019, an increase of 338.7%, partly because of the increase in U.S. ethanol import demand. 

Ethanol production in the EU increased almost 45% in 2008 and 14% in 2009. EU ethanol production is projected 

to reach 1.8 billion gallons in 2019, an increase of 127.4%. Consumption in the EU increased 10.3% in 2009, to 

1.1 billion gallons. It is expected to reach 2.5 billion gallons in 2019, an increase of 129.2% over the decade. Total 

EU biofuels consumption reaches nearly 4% of transport fuels in 2019. EU net imports rise from 279 million 

gallons in 2009 to 655 million gallons by 2019 as consumption increases more than production. 

Chinese fuel ethanol production increased 15.3% in 2008, to 516 million gallons. Production is projected to 

continue to increase and reach 731.4 million gallons by 2019. Ethanol consumption in China increased from 

414 billion gallons in 2007 to 448 million gallons in 2008. It increases 52.7%, to 744.9 million gallons, between 

2008 and 2019. Net exports, which totaled 35 million gallons in 2008, are projected to decline over the projection 

period. By 2018, China switches to a net importer of ethanol, with net imports of 13.4 million gallons in 2019. 

In India, ethanol is produced mainly from molasses, a co-product in sugar production from sugarcane. India’s 

ethanol production decreased 32.6%, from 443 million gallons in 2008 to 298 million gallons in 2009, because 

of a decline in sugarcane production. Production rises to 634.9 million gallons in 2019, an increase of 112.9%. 

Consumption of ethanol in India was 473 million gallons in 2009 and is projected to increase 48.3%, to 702.1 

million gallons, in 2019. India’s net imports increase from 53 million gallons in 2009 to 75.7 million gallons in 

2019.

Japanese net imports of ethanol declined 3.2%, from 123.6 million gallons in 2007 to 119.6 million gallons in 

2008. Net imports are projected to increase 103.7%, to 243.7, by the end of the decade. Ethanol net imports in 

South Korea totaled 60.6 million gallons in 2005. They are projected to increase to almost 202 million gallons by 

2019, an increase of 147.4% from the 2005 levels.
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World Biodiesel

The world price of biodiesel (Central Europe FOB) increases to $4.14 per gallon in 2010, driven by higher 

petroleum and vegetable oil prices. Lower exportable surpluses from Argentina as their B5 mandate is 

implemented and tariff barriers imposed by the EU (by far the dominant importer) on biodiesel originating from 

the U.S. also contribute to the price recovery. Increasing crude oil prices and the mandates in Argentina, Brazil, the 

EU, and the U.S. lead to price increases throughout the period. The world price reaches $5.58 per gallon by 2019.

The EU is home to the world’s largest biodiesel industry and markets. Both the implementation of antidumping 

and countervailing duties by the EU and the domestic consumption mandates boost demand for domestically 

produced biodiesel. In response to these stimuli, the local industry increases production by 5% in 2010, on 

top of the 36% expansion observed in the previous season. Production continues its expansion and reaches 3.5 

billion gallons by 2019. Pushed by the biofuels target, consumption continues to grow during the outlook period, 

reaching 4.0 billion gallons in 2019. The biodiesel share of diesel in transport is, however, still only about 5.8%. 

Net imports grow steadily over the outlook period and reach 559 million gallons by 2019. 

An export-oriented Argentine industry rapidly increased biodiesel production and exports from marginal 

production levels in 2006 to over 300 million gallons in 2009. This production continues its expansion path and 

reaches 464 million gallons by 2019. Implementation of the domestic B5 mandate in 2010, however, reduces the 

country’s exportable surplus by 36% year on year. The ensuing growth in domestic consumption keeps net exports 

from expanding beyond 270 million gallons over the next decade.

Unlike in Argentina, most of the biodiesel production in Brazil has been motivated by domestic consumption 

mandates. This is expected to continue over the outlook period, and net exports remain at modest levels, not 

exceeding 80 million gallons. Consumption jumps in 2008, 2009, and 2010 because of the mandate (B2.5 by 

2008, B3 and B4 by 2009, and B5 by 2010) and is expected to reach about 700 million gallons by 2019. While 

Brazil is striving to produce biodiesel from alternative vegetable oils, it is expected that soybean oil will remain 

the dominant feedstock.

The combined biodiesel production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to increase from about 100 million 

gallons in 2009 to 182 million gallons in 2019. Domestic production growth is constrained by rising palm oil 

prices and repeated delays in the implementation of and changes in the domestic consumption mandates in these 

countries. Given the uncertainty generated by these changes, no domestic consumption mandate was included in 

the present outlook.
324 / World Biofuels: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook

Ethanol Trade

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Net Exporters (Million Gallons)

 Brazil 945 1,124 1,324 1,430 1,553 1,736 2,089 2,599 3,118 3,660 4,148

 China 35 37 23 23 17 11 7 6 0 -5 -13

 Total Net Exports * 980 1,161 1,348 1,453 1,571 1,748 2,096 2,605 3,118 3,660 4,148

Net Importers

 Canada 171 194 220 236 253 266 277 281 290 297 308

 European Union 279 315 373 407 457 491 517 546 581 613 655

 India 53 91 89 89 88 87 86 80 78 75 76

 Japan 137 149 162 172 183 194 204 213 223 233 244

 South Korea 85 100 116 127 138 149 160 170 180 191 202

 United States 180 226 291 317 333 432 715 1,168 1,606 2,077 2,470

 ROW 75 85 97 107 118 128 139 149 159 170 180

 Total Net Imports * 980 1,161 1,348 1,453 1,571 1,748 2,096 2,605 3,118 3,660 4,148

Prices (U.S. Dollars per Gallon)

 Anhydrous Ethanol Price, Brazil † 1.60 1.61 1.46 1.53 1.52 1.54 1.57 1.67 1.69 1.74 1.74

 Ethanol, FOB Omaha 1.79 1.74 1.77 1.78 1.79 1.83 1.89 1.92 1.92 1.93 1.93

Note: 1 gallon = 3.7857 liters; 1 metric ton = 1237.1644 liters.

* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports.

† Represents world ethanol price.

Biodiesel Trade

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Net Exporters (Million Gallons)

 Argentina 331 216 247 263 271 274 274 272 270 268 265

 Brazil -1 -13 23 48 63 72 76 75 72 66 58

 Indonesia 21 20 22 24 26 28 32 36 41 48 58

 Malaysia 58 74 85 91 95 97 98 98 99 99 99

 United States 157 24 5 2 12 20 21 25 49 83 122

 Total Net Exports * 566 335 382 428 467 491 500 507 531 564 602

Net Importers

 European Union 375 269 333 380 419 443 452 460 485 519 559

 Japan 17 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 13

 ROW 174 35 34 34 33 33 33 32 31 30 30

 Total Net Imports * 566 335 382 428 467 491 500 507 531 564 602

Prices (U.S. Dollars per Gallon)

 Central Europe FOB Price † 3.89 4.14 4.40 4.61 4.75 4.74 4.83 4.98 5.18 5.39 5.58

 Biodiesel Plant 3.50 3.67 3.75 3.94 3.99 4.01 4.10 4.22 4.32 4.41 4.41

Note: 1 gallon = 3.7857 liters; 1 metric ton = 1136.36 liters.

* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports.

† Represents world biodiesel price.
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U.S. Biofuels Production and Consumption

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ethanol (Million Gallons)

Production 10,699 12,304 13,295 13,648 14,042 14,627 15,293 15,827 16,274 16,763 17,307

Consumption 10,888 12,407 13,525 13,945 14,355 15,030 15,974 16,966 17,855 18,813 19,749

 Net Trade -180 -226 -291 -317 -333 -432 -715 -1,168 -1,606 -2,077 -2,470

Feedstock in Ethanol Production (Thousand Metric Tons)

Corn 98,283 111,773 119,932 121,954 124,249 128,149 132,603 135,782 138,144 140,451 141,832

Corn Stover 3 37 142 265 305 301 299 296 293 458 1,401

Switchgrass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 312 1,566

Biodiesel

Production 578 715 846 962 1,018 1,025 1,058 1,149 1,238 1,292 1,324

Consumption 401 660 807 945 1,000 1,002 1,027 1,119 1,203 1,242 1,245

 Net Trade 157 24 5 2 12 20 21 25 49 83 122

Feedstock in Biodiesel Production

Soybean Oil 913 1,143 1,461 1,687 1,763 1,761 1,915 2,147 2,286 2,383 2,444

Canola Oil 20 20 19 22 22 22 23 24 23 22 22

Argentine Biofuels Production and Consumption

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Biodiesel (Million Gallons)

Production 326 384 418 438 449 455 459 461 462 463 464

Consumption 5 168 171 175 178 182 185 189 192 196 199

 Net Trade 331 216 247 263 271 274 274 272 270 268 265

Feedstock in Biodiesel Production (Thousand Metric Tons)

 Soybean Oil 1,102 1,296 1,406 1,466 1,498 1,513 1,519 1,520 1,519 1,516 1,513

Brazilian Biofuels Production and Consumption

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ethanol (Million Gallons)

Production 6,915 7,886 8,429 8,785 9,287 9,811 10,442 11,196 11,988 12,805 13,608

Consumption 6,365 6,646 7,015 7,389 7,739 8,079 8,362 8,608 8,877 9,151 9,461

 Net Trade 945 1,124 1,324 1,430 1,553 1,736 2,089 2,599 3,118 3,660 4,148

Feedstock in Ethanol Production (Thousand Metric Tons)

 Sugarcane 333,336 370,306 387,963 399,781 417,951 436,649 459,526 487,221 515,928 544,998 572,815

Biodiesel (Million Gallons)

Production 406 571 620 656 684 706 722 734 744 751 757

Consumption 396 585 597 608 621 633 646 659 672 685 699

 Net Trade -1 -13 23 48 63 72 76 75 72 66 58

Feedstock in Biodiesel Production (Thousand Metric Tons)

 Soybean Oil 1,204 1,685 1,813 1,905 1,972 2,018 2,049 2,068 2,078 2,083 2,082
326 / World Biofuels: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook

Canadian Biofuels Production and Consumption

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ethanol (Million Gallons)

Production 279 302 310 323 336 351 366 388 410 433 455

Consumption 450 496 530 558 589 617 643 669 700 730 763

 Net Trade -171 -194 -220 -236 -253 -266 -277 -281 -290 -297 -308

Feedstock in Ethanol Production (Thousand Metric Tons)

 Wheat 868 935 955 989 1,025 1,065 1,106 1,165 1,224 1,286 1,345

 Corn 2,017 2,177 2,230 2,315 2,406 2,504 2,607 2,753 2,900 3,052 3,200

Chinese Biofuels Production and Consumption

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ethanol (Million Gallons)

Production 542 563 575 594 611 630 649 671 691 712 731

Consumption 508 526 551 571 594 618 642 665 691 717 745

 Net Trade 35 37 23 23 17 11 7 6 0 -5 -13

Feedstock in Ethanol Production (Thousand Metric Tons)

 Wheat 1,643 1,695 1,723 1,770 1,813 1,858 1,906 1,960 2,008 2,058 2,105

 Corn 3,911 4,046 4,122 4,246 4,359 4,478 4,603 4,745 4,873 5,006 5,131

European Union Biofuels Production and Consumption

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ethanol (Million Gallons)

Production 803 990 1,073 1,171 1,256 1,351 1,450 1,546 1,641 1,737 1,826

Consumption 1,082 1,304 1,446 1,577 1,713 1,842 1,967 2,092 2,222 2,350 2,481

 Net Trade -279 -315 -373 -407 -457 -491 -517 -546 -581 -613 -655

Feedstock in Ethanol Production (Thousand Metric Tons)

 Wheat 3,900 4,864 5,305 5,826 6,197 6,647 7,108 7,487 7,962 8,414 8,736

 Corn 1,800 2,440 2,598 2,810 2,994 3,188 3,420 3,659 3,853 4,056 4,229

 Barley 500 749 796 856 916 983 1,047 1,108 1,161 1,223 1,296

 Sugar Beet 9,240 11,963 12,891 13,820 14,896 15,962 17,002 18,170 19,082 20,045 21,265

 Other 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261

Biodiesel (Million Gallons)

Production 2,477 2,612 2,840 2,888 2,940 3,002 3,082 3,151 3,265 3,371 3,471

Consumption 2,867 2,883 3,175 3,270 3,361 3,447 3,536 3,612 3,752 3,892 4,032

 Net Trade -375 -269 -333 -380 -419 -443 -452 -460 -485 -519 -559

Feedstock in Biodiesel Production (Thousand Metric Tons)

 Rapeseed Oil 5,994 6,478 7,074 7,227 7,394 7,640 7,857 8,036 8,323 8,593 8,853

 Soybean Oil 1,070 1,044 1,138 1,150 1,170 1,194 1,223 1,249 1,293 1,333 1,370

 Sunflower Oil 311 326 354 361 367 375 385 393 409 424 438

Indian Biofuels Production and Consumption

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ethanol (Million Gallons)

Production 298 419 450 476 497 519 542 568 590 614 635

Consumption 473 505 537 556 577 598 618 637 659 679 702

 Net Trade -53 -91 -89 -89 -88 -87 -86 -80 -78 -75 -76
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Indonesian Biofuels Production and Consumption

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Biodiesel (Million Gallons)

Production 24 25 26 28 30 33 36 40 46 53 62

Consumption 354444444 5 5

 Net Trade 21 20 22 24 26 28 32 36 41 48 58

Feedstock in Biodiesel Production (Thousand Metric Tons)

 Palm Oil 84 87 92 98 105 114 126 140 159 184 217

Japanese Biofuels Production and Consumption

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ethanol (Million Gallons)

 Net Trade -137 -149 -162 -172 -183 -194 -204 -213 -223 -233 -244

Biodiesel

 Net Trade -17 -17 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -14 -13

South Korean Biofuels Production and Consumption

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ethanol (Million Gallons)

 Net Trade -85 -100 -116 -127 -138 -149 -160 -170 -180 -191 -202

Malaysian Biofuels Production and Consumption

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Biodiesel (Million Gallons)

Production 76 92 103 109 114 116 117 118 119 119 119

Consumption 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 20 20 20 20

 Net Trade 58 74 85 91 95 97 98 98 99 99 99

Feedstock in Biodiesel Production (Thousand Metric Tons)

 Palm Oil 265 322 359 382 397 405 409 412 414 416 417

Rest-of-World Biofuels Production and Consumption

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ethanol (Million Gallons)

 Net Trade -75 -85 -97 -107 -118 -128 -139 -149 -159 -170 -180

Biodiesel

 Net Trade -174 -35 -34 -34 -33 -33 -33 -32 -31 -30 -30