ref2014.d102413a 2011 2012 2013 2014

Report Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release

Scenario ref2014

Datekey d102413a

Release Date December 2013

20. Macroeconomic Indicators

(billion 2005 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)

 Indicators 2011 2012 2013 2014

Real Gross Domestic Product 13299 13593 13843 14232

Components of Real Gross Domestic Product

 Real Consumption 9429 9603 9807 10039

 Real Investment 1744 1914 2050 2220

 Real Government Spending 2524 2481 2412 2420

 Real Exports 1777 1837 1875 1964

 Real Imports 2185 2238 2281 2380

Energy Intensity

 (thousand Btu per 2005 dollar of GDP)

 Delivered Energy 5.29 5.08 5.09 4.95

 Total Energy 7.30 6.99 6.97 6.79

Price Indices

 GDP Chain-type Price Index (2005=1.000) 1.134 1.154 1.171 1.192

 Consumer Price Index (1982-84=1.00)

 All-urban 2.25 2.30 2.33 2.37

 Energy Commodities and Services 2.44 2.46 2.38 2.37

 Wholesale Price Index (1982=1.00)

 All Commodities 2.01 2.02 2.05 2.07

 Fuel and Power 2.16 2.12 2.16 2.17

 Metals and Metal Products 2.26 2.20 2.19 2.24

 Industrial Commodities excluding Energy 1.93 1.94 1.97 2.00

Interest Rates (percent, nominal)

 Federal Funds Rate 0.10 0.14 0.15 0.20

 10-Year Treasury Note 2.79 1.80 1.89 2.54

 AA Utility Bond Rate 4.78 3.83 4.02 4.92

Value of Shipments (billion 2005 dollars)

 Non-Industrial and Service Sectors 21240 21359 21699 22224
 Total Industrial 5926 6147 6344 6616

 Agriculture, Mining, and Construction 1556 1623 1711 1846

 Manufacturing 4370 4525 4632 4770

 Energy-Intensive 1599 1616 1637 1673

 Non-Energy-Intensive 2772 2909 2995 3097

Total Shipments 27166 27506 28043 28840

Population and Employment (millions)

 Population, with Armed Forces Overseas 312.3 314.6 317.0 319.5

 Population, aged 16 and over 247.0 249.2 251.4 253.6

 Population, over age 65 41.7 43.4 44.9 46.4

 Employment, Nonfarm 131.5 133.7 135.7 137.9

 Employment, Manufacturing 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1

Key Labor Indicators

 Labor Force (millions) 153.6 155.0 155.8 157.3

 Nonfarm Labor Productivity (2005=1.00) 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13

 Unemployment Rate (percent) 8.93 8.08 7.61 7.21

Key Indicators for Energy Demand

 Real Disposable Personal Income 10150 10304 10408 10755

 Housing Starts (millions) 0.66 0.84 1.05 1.31

 Commercial Floorspace (billion square feet) 81.7 82.4 82.9 83.5

 Unit Sales of Light-Duty Vehicles (millions) 12.73 14.43 15.26 15.64

 GDP = Gross domestic product.

 Btu = British thermal unit.

 - - = Not applicable.

 Sources: 2011 and 2012: IHS Global Insight, Global Insight Industry and Employment models,

May 2013. Projections: U.S. Energy Information Administration, AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System run ref2014.d102413a.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

 2014 Early Release

Reference case

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

14693 15154 15589 15987 16378 16753 17113 17487 17885

10288 10573 10865 11126 11366 11592 11811 12031 12262

2446 2594 2682 2748 2816 2876 2929 2995 3073

2415 2414 2420 2428 2435 2443 2445 2450 2457

2080 2228 2379 2535 2698 2863 3038 3225 3427

2487 2593 2687 2772 2850 2925 3004 3095 3198

4.85 4.76 4.67 4.57 4.48 4.40 4.32 4.24 4.15

6.65 6.50 6.37 6.25 6.13 6.01 5.91 5.80 5.70

1.211 1.230 1.248 1.267 1.286 1.307 1.328 1.351 1.374

2.41 2.45 2.49 2.53 2.58 2.63 2.68 2.73 2.79

2.34 2.34 2.37 2.43 2.49 2.55 2.62 2.69 2.76

2.08 2.11 2.13 2.16 2.19 2.22 2.25 2.28 2.32

2.14 2.17 2.22 2.30 2.38 2.42 2.49 2.56 2.64

2.31 2.35 2.37 2.39 2.41 2.43 2.45 2.47 2.49

2.03 2.06 2.08 2.10 2.12 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.21

0.12 1.53 3.46 3.93 3.90 3.85 3.88 3.94 3.96

2.90 3.56 4.03 4.16 4.15 4.14 4.18 4.23 4.24

5.10 5.75 6.39 6.58 6.60 6.60 6.64 6.70 6.72

22873 23556 24250 24878 25475 26033 26593 27172 27790
7014 7341 7541 7683 7814 7960 8112 8271 8440

2011 2122 2163 2187 2210 2226 2229 2241 2260

5003 5218 5378 5497 5605 5735 5882 6029 6180

1730 1779 1826 1860 1896 1931 1965 1996 2026

3273 3439 3553 3636 3709 3803 3917 4033 4153

29887 30896 31792 32562 33289 33994 34705 35442 36230

321.9 324.4 326.9 329.4 332.0 334.5 337.0 339.5 342.0

255.9 258.1 260.3 262.4 264.6 266.7 268.8 271.0 273.1

47.9 49.5 51.0 52.7 54.4 56.2 58.0 59.9 61.7

140.5 143.1 145.2 146.5 147.5 148.4 148.9 149.5 150.3

12.4 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9

158.6 159.8 161.0 162.0 162.8 163.5 164.3 165.0 165.7

1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.33

6.64 6.12 5.80 5.63 5.55 5.49 5.45 5.44 5.38

11093 11446 11826 12135 12429 12710 12953 13204 13479

1.68 1.75 1.74 1.75 1.77 1.75 1.70 1.68 1.68

84.2 85.0 86.0 87.0 88.1 89.1 90.1 91.1 92.1

16.17 16.73 16.72 16.46 16.32 16.23 16.21 16.21 16.21

ref2014.d102413a.
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

18316 18769 19232 19690 20154 20637 21139 21639 22139

12511 12773 13052 13334 13623 13922 14220 14524 14840

3165 3269 3373 3463 3545 3637 3740 3845 3927

2473 2495 2518 2543 2568 2593 2623 2647 2674

3640 3857 4080 4307 4545 4795 5056 5329 5612

3320 3453 3598 3744 3892 4048 4213 4389 4567

4.06 3.97 3.88 3.80 3.71 3.63 3.54 3.47 3.39

5.58 5.46 5.34 5.22 5.11 5.00 4.89 4.78 4.67

1.397 1.421 1.446 1.471 1.497 1.525 1.553 1.584 1.616

2.84 2.90 2.95 3.01 3.07 3.14 3.20 3.27 3.35

2.84 2.91 2.99 3.07 3.14 3.23 3.33 3.43 3.52

2.36 2.40 2.44 2.48 2.52 2.57 2.62 2.67 2.71

2.74 2.82 2.90 2.99 3.07 3.18 3.30 3.42 3.52

2.53 2.56 2.60 2.64 2.68 2.72 2.77 2.81 2.86

2.23 2.26 2.29 2.32 2.35 2.38 2.41 2.44 2.48

3.98 3.99 3.99 4.01 4.05 4.10 4.14 4.17 4.18

4.25 4.24 4.23 4.24 4.27 4.31 4.36 4.39 4.40

6.74 6.74 6.73 6.74 6.78 6.83 6.88 6.91 6.95

28375 28947 29535 30108 30669 31224 31782 32337 32877
8600 8778 8955 9113 9252 9389 9537 9679 9795

2281 2311 2335 2350 2355 2368 2389 2403 2403

6319 6467 6620 6763 6897 7020 7148 7277 7392

2054 2081 2104 2127 2146 2158 2171 2185 2199

4265 4386 4516 4637 4750 4862 4977 5091 5194

36975 37725 38490 39221 39920 40613 41319 42017 42672

344.5 347.0 349.4 351.9 354.3 356.7 359.0 361.3 363.6

275.2 277.2 279.2 281.2 283.3 285.5 287.6 289.8 291.9

63.5 65.3 67.0 68.7 70.2 71.7 73.0 74.0 74.8

151.1 152.2 153.5 154.7 156.0 157.2 158.6 159.6 160.6

12.9 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.2

166.4 166.9 167.6 168.3 169.1 170.0 170.9 171.9 172.9

1.36 1.39 1.42 1.44 1.47 1.50 1.53 1.56 1.59

5.34 5.29 5.22 5.18 5.15 5.13 5.10 5.08 5.07

13812 14162 14509 14852 15198 15551 15926 16281 16638

1.68 1.72 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.70 1.71 1.69 1.65

93.0 93.9 94.8 95.7 96.5 97.3 98.2 99.0 100.0

16.26 16.55 16.81 17.01 17.14 17.19 17.23 17.27 17.31
2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2012-2040

22659 23200 23751 24315 24888 25477 26063 26670 2%

15159 15488 15828 16178 16534 16898 17267 17635 2.2%

4029 4151 4274 4403 4530 4663 4787 4925 3.4%

2700 2726 2754 2784 2814 2846 2879 2917 0.6%

5906 6207 6516 6833 7160 7497 7835 8186 5.5%

4754 4954 5167 5390 5617 5850 6086 6328 3.8%

3.32 3.25 3.18 3.12 3.06 3.00 2.94 2.88 -2.0%

4.58 4.48 4.39 4.30 4.22 4.14 4.06 3.99 -2.0%

1.649 1.683 1.719 1.755 1.793 1.832 1.872 1.913 1.8%

3.43 3.51 3.59 3.68 3.77 3.86 3.95 4.05 2.1%

3.63 3.74 3.86 4.00 4.13 4.25 4.40 4.56 2.2%

2.77 2.83 2.89 2.95 3.01 3.06 3.13 3.21 1.7%

3.65 3.78 3.92 4.09 4.22 4.35 4.52 4.73 2.9%

2.90 2.95 2.99 3.04 3.08 3.13 3.18 3.22 1.4%

2.51 2.55 2.59 2.63 2.67 2.70 2.74 2.78 1.3%

4.18 4.18 4.20 4.23 4.23 4.21 4.21 4.22 - -

4.42 4.43 4.45 4.49 4.50 4.49 4.50 4.52 - -

6.98 7.01 7.05 7.09 7.12 7.12 7.16 7.22 - -

33411 33947 34480 35020 35563 36100 36626 37135 2.0%
9924 10082 10241 10402 10564 10716 10855 10994 2.1%

2413 2436 2457 2477 2498 2513 2529 2551 1.6%

7511 7646 7784 7925 8066 8203 8325 8443 2.3%

2211 2225 2238 2250 2267 2284 2295 2303 1.3%

5300 5421 5547 5675 5799 5919 6031 6140 2.7%

43335 44029 44721 45422 46127 46816 47480 48129 2%

365.8 368.0 370.2 372.3 374.4 376.5 378.5 380.5 0.7%

293.9 295.9 297.9 299.9 301.8 303.6 305.5 307.3 0.8%

75.7 76.5 77.5 78.3 78.8 79.2 79.5 79.8 2.2%

161.6 162.7 163.7 164.8 165.9 167.0 168.1 169.2 0.8%

12.1 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.0 -0.3%

173.9 174.9 175.8 176.8 177.8 179.0 180.1 181.2 0.6%

1.62 1.65 1.68 1.71 1.75 1.78 1.81 1.85 1.8%

5.07 5.07 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.10 5.12 - -

16997 17368 17749 18138 18535 18933 19326 19724 2.3%

1.64 1.65 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.65 1.66 2.5%

100.9 102.0 103.1 104.2 105.4 106.6 107.7 108.9 1.0%

17.31 17.36 17.45 17.54 17.66 17.78 17.87 17.93 0.8%