10

- B

- i APPENDIX 10

- B. FULL FUEL CYCLE MULT IPLIERS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10

- B.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ............................... 10

- B

- 2 10

- B.2 METHODOLOGY

................................ ................................ .............................. 10

- B

- 2 10

- B.3 FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE ENERGY MULTIPL IERS

................................ ............. 10

- B

- 4

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10

- B.2.1 Dependence of FFC Parameters on AEO Inputs

................................ ..... 10

- B

- 4 Table 10

- B.3.1 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Multipliers (Based on AEO 2013)

.................... 10

- B

- 410

- B

- 2 APPENDIX 10

- B. FULL FUEL CYCLE MULT IPLIERS

10

- B.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix summarizes the methods used to calculate full

- fuel

- cycle (FFC) energy savings expected to result from amended standards. The FFC measure includes point

- of

- use (site) energy, the energy losses associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity, and the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. DOE’s traditional approach encompassed only site energy and the energy losses associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. Per DOE’s 2011 Statement of Policy for Adopting Full Fuel Cycle Analyses , DOE now uses FFC measures of energy use and emissions in its energy conservation standards analyses. 1 This appendix summarizes the methods used to incorporate the full

- fuel

- cycle impacts into the analysis.

This analysis uses several diff erent terms to reference energy use. The physical sources of energy are the primary fuels such as coal, natural gas, liquid fuels, etc . Primary energy is equal to the heat content ( Btu ) of the primary fuels used to provide an end

- use service. Site energy u se is defined as the energy consumed at the point

- of

- use in a building or industrial process. Where natural gas and petroleum fuels are consumed at the site (for example in a furnace), site energy is identical to primary energy, with both equal to the heat content of the primary fuel consumed. For electricity, site energy is measured in kWh. In this case the primary energy is equal to the quads of primary energy required to generate and deliver the site electricity. This primary energy is calculated by mult iplying the site kWh times the site

- to

- power plant energy use factor, given in chapter 10. For the FFC analysis, the upstream energy use is defined as the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. FFC energ y use is the sum of primary energy at the site or power plant plus upstream energy use.

Both primary fuels and electricity are used in upstream activities. The treatment of electricity in fuel cycle analysis must distinguish between electricity generate d by fossil fuels and uranium, and electricity generated from renewable fluxes (wind, solar and hydro). For the former, the upstream fuel cycle impacts are derived based on the amount of fuel consumed at the power plant. For the latter, no fuel per se is u sed, so there is no upstream component.

10

- B.2 METHODOLOGY

The mathematical approach is discussed in the paper A Mathematical Analysis of Full Fuel Cycle Energy Use

, 2 and details on the fuel production chain analysis are presented in the
paper Projections of Full Fuel Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics

. 3 The text below provides a brief summary of the methods used to calculate FFC energy.

When all energy quantities are normalize d to the same units, the FFC energy use can be represented as the product of the primary energy use and an FFC multiplier . The FFC multiplier is defined mathematically as a function of a set of parameters representing the energy intensity and material loss es at each production stage. These parameters depend only on physical data, so10

- B

- 3 the calculations do not require any assumptions about prices or other economic data. While in general these parameter values may vary by geographic region, for this analysis na tional averages are used.

In the notation below, the indices x and y are used to indicate fuel type, with x=c for coal, x=g for natural gas, x=p for petroleum fuels, x=u for uranium and x=r for renewable fluxes. The fuel cycle parameters are:

• a x is the quantity of fuel x burned per unit of electricity output, on average, for grid electricity. The calculation of a x includes a factor to account for transmission and distribution system losses.

• b y is the amount of grid electricity used in production of fue l y, in MWh per physical unit of fuel y.

• c xy is the amount of fuel x consumed in producing one unit of fuel y.

• q x is the heat content of fuel x ( MBTU /physical unit)

• z x (s) is the emissions intensity for fuel x (mass of pollutant s per physical unit of x)

The parameters are calculated as a function of time with an annual time step; hence, a time series of annual values is used to estimate the FFC energy and emissions savings in each year of the analysis period. Fossil fuel quantities are converted to ener gy units using the heat content factors q x . To convert electricity in kWh to primary energy units, on

- site electricity consumption is multiplied by the power sector primary energy use factor indicated in chapter 10. The power sector primary energy use fact or is defined as the ratio of the total primary energy consumption by the electric power sector (in quadrillion BTUs) divided by the total electricity generation in each year.

The FFC multiplier is denoted μ (mu). A separate multiplier is calculated for each fuel used on site. A multiplier is also calculated for electricity reflecting the fuel mix used in its generation. The multipliers are dimensionless numbers that are applied to primary energy savings to obtain the FFC energy savings. The upstream comp onent of the energy savings is proportional to (μ

- 1). The fuel type is denoted by a subscript on the multiplier μ.

For DOE’s appliance standards energy savings estimates, the FFC analysis methodology is designed to make use of data and projections publis hed in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). Table 10

- B.2

. 1 provides a summary of the AEO data used as inputs to the different parameter calculations. The AEO does not provide all the information needed to estimate total energy use in the fuel production chain. Projections of Full Fuel Cycle Energy and Emissions Me trics paper describes the additional data sources used to complete the analysis. However, the time dependence in the FFC multipliers arises exclusively from variables taken from the AEO. The FFC analysis for residential boilers used data from AEO 201 3

. 410

- B

- 4 Table 10

- B.2.1 Dependence of FFC Parameters on AEO Inputs Parameter Fuel AEO Table Variables
q x all Conversion Factors MMB TU per physical unit

a x all Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions Generation by fuel type Energy Consumption by Sector and Source Electric power sector energy consumption

b c , c nc , c pc coal Coal Production by Region and Type Production by coal type and sulfur content

b p , c np , c pp petroleum Refining Industry Energy Consumption Refining only energy use Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition Crude supply by source International Liquids Supply and Disposition Crude oil imports Oil and Gas Supply Crude oil domestic production

c nn natural
gas Oil and Gas Supply US dry gas production Natural Gas Supply, Disposition and Prices Pipeline, lease and plant fuel

z x all Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices and Emissions Power sector emissions

10

- B.3 FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE ENERGY MULTIPL IERS

Upstream energy multipliers are presented in Table 10

- B.3

. 1 for selected years. For years after 2040 (the last year in the AEO ), DOE maintained the 2040 value

. The mul tipliers are applied to site energy. The multiplier for electricity reflects the shares of various primary fuels in total electricity generation over the forecast period.

Table 10

- B.3.1 Upstream Energy Multipliers (Based on AEO 2013) 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity 1.041 1.040 1.040 1.041 1.040 1.040 1.040 Natural Gas 1.101 1.100 1.098 1.099 1.100 1.100 1.100 Petroleum Fuels 1.140 1.148 1.158 1.166 1.168 1.168 1.16810

- B

- 5 REFERENCES

1. United States

- Office of the Federal Register, Federal Register, Volume 76, Number 160, August 18, 2011 . UNT Digital Library. Washington D.C. .

2. Coughlin, K., A Mathematical Analysis of Full Fuel Cycle Energy Use

. Energy , 2012. 37(1): pp. 698

- 708

< http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544211006803 >

3. Coughlin, K., Projections of Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics , 2013. Lawrence Berkeley Nationa l Laboratory. Report No. LBNL

- 6025E.

4. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 with Projections to 2040 , 2013. Washington, DC. < http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/ 0383(2013).pdf >