cc: Below 

B. P. Leonard 

To: W. F. Sampson 

W. C. Williams 

ifl VG 1 11 111111111111 111616131571 61611111111 

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Subject: Reliability Growth and Cost Effectiveness 

Comparison of Manned and Unmanned MOL 

Systems 

IMINEMMININ 

BYE-66357-63 

cc: E. Barlow/A. Donovan/W. Leverton 

S. Tenant/H. Bernstein 

F. P. Klein/A. Norem/W. Targoff 

S. Strong/L. Lidstrom/G. D. McGhee 

File - C. Rasch (2) (one copy to be read by: H. W. Nordyke 

W. Pittman 

B. Moss 

J. Henry) 

WHS -017 

(-Copy of 

:. Pages .600freorz16 May 1966 

DATE 

C ROFICHED,.3z., 

DATE to 

'ciT. 

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Subject: RELIABILITY GROWTH AND COST EFFECTIVENESS COMPARISON 

OF MANNED AND UNMANNED MOL SYSTEMS 

1. There has been much discussion regarding reliability growth and cost 

effectiveness comparisons of manned and unmanned systems during the past 

few years at Aerospace. Since a major briefing and position paper is to go 

to the Secretary of Defense in early June, I feel it desirable to go formally 

on record with the enclosed data. The first pages will attempt to summarize 

as concisely as possible the data which is enclosed. 

Z. We are placing in the MOL program a very great emphasis on the simplest 

and most reliable method of obtaininglipictures for the longest possible duration. 

This emphasis is delinated in Enclosure A. We believe that this design configuration 

emphasis will result in a much higher reliability for the manned version than can 

possibly be hoped for in the unmanned case. 

3. Enclosure B shows the reliability growth of Program X. This shows an 

un-manned device starting at 20% reliability and growing to 45% reliability. 

MOL has about 6 times the duration and 6 times the complexity as measured 

by a number of AEG's. Assuming that we have 100% redundancy in the unmanned 

mode we have a factor of at least 3 in complexity. Therefore, a lower bound 

for the reliability growth of our unmanned MOL system would be 45% divided by 

18, or about 3%. It seems to the writer that a very optimistic upper bound for 

MOL in an unmanned mode is Program X, as flown. We note with interest 

that had Program X been manned the first 4 flights would have been successful. 

We note with interest that the present MOL program only has 5 flights. We note 

with interest that an unmanned MOL program with no manned flights to prfceed it 

would have about 25% times 5 flights, or an expected 1 - 1/4 successes. At a 

cost of $85M per flight in the unmanned mode we note that the 5 flights would 

cost $425M with only an expected value of 1 - 1/4 successes. Should a lower bound 

view (3%) be taken of the reliability growth we would spend $425M and not even 

get one success. 

4. The Agena history as flown, and a reconstructed manned vehicle, is shown 

in Enclosure C. Agena has about 6, 000 active element groups. 

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5. The Mercury reliability growth as flown, and in a reconstructed unmanned 

case, is shown in Enclosure D. This clearly shows that Mercury in its 4 flights was 

a complete success in the manned version, whereas had it been unmanned only 25% 

success would have been attained. 

6. The NASA Gemini is shown in Enclosure E. This shows a 90% success on 

6 flights in the manned mode whereas the reconstructed unmanned case for that 

program would have been 25%. 

7. Enclosure F shows plots of the reliability growth of Agena, Mercury and 

Gemini. 

8. Enclosure G shows the actual failures per day of various programs and is a 

useful tool in attempting to estimate the reliability growth that can be expected 

out of the manned program to improve the reliability growth of the unmanned system. 

The fundamental message is that Gemini had about 1 anomaly (which is a failure 

that required the use of redundancy or backup or degradation in order to finish the 

mission with success). Due to the larger number of AEG's in the MOL, as high 

as 3 anomalies/day may occur early in the program. Douglas has made some 

mature estimates which are as low as 1/4 of an anomaly per day at maturity. 

It is our belief that the case is of the order of one anomaly per day during the 

development program. 

9. Enclosure H shows some mature reliability estimates for the MOL manned/ 

automatic and automatic modes. It should be clearly understood that calculations 

of this nature are mature reliability and do not address the question of reliability 

growth. 

10. Enclosure B through H are through the courtesty of Phil Klein. 

11. Bob Rogers has examined all manned spacecraft of the world and this shows 

that Vostok, Voskod, Mercury and Gemini in the manned modes are for all 

practical purposes 100% reliable. 

12. Enclosure J shows these same manned spacecraft and their unmanned 

precursors as best we can examine it, and basically shows that the Soviet's 

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5 unmanned versions of Vostok had an average reliability of about 50%, whereas 

the unmanned orbital versions of Mercury were about 80%. 

13. Enclosures K and L show the Mercury, Gemini, Vostok and Voskod, both 

manned and unmanned success ratio plotted versus calendar year. Much more 

backup data is available upon request. 

14. Enclosures J through R are through the courtesy of Bob Rogers. 

15. Enclosure M (pages 1 and 2) shows the reliability growth of simple unmanned 

spacecraft systems. These spacecraft have less then 2, 000 AEG's and have simple 

or non-existent stabilization systems (1. e. , some are spin stabilized). These 45 

spa.cecraft flights have a cumulative average reliability of 72%. The conclusion 

here is that simple spacecraft with spin stabilization can give one to two year life. 

(Examples are VELA, TIROS, SYNCOM, TELSTAR and RELAY.) 

16. Enclosure N shows the reliability growth of complex unmanned spacecraft. 

All of these complex spacecraft have a number of AEG from 2, ooa for OSO to' 

17, 000 for OAO. All of these spacecraft have "complex" attitude control systems. 

It will be noted that at the 25th launch a reliability of . 8 was achieved. It should 

also be noted that these 4 successes were the 4th Mariner, the second OSO and the 

8th and 9th Rangers. • The cumulative average is .34. 

17. Enclosure P shows the reliability growth of Discovereewhich shows 12 

failures before its first success. 

18. Enclosure Q shows the reliability growth of Ranger. Ranger had six 

failures before its first success. 

19. Complex spacecraft with active stabilization systems and/or complex orbit 

injection requirements have hada 10% to 50% success probability when flown 

unmanned for 1 week to 7 months. Examples: RANGER, MARINER, LUNA, 

MIDAS, AGENA-DISCOVERER. 

20. I understand that 698B3 had 5 failures in 5 attempts before cancellation. 

Enclosure R shows the fraction of planned objectives achieved versus a number 

of active element groups. It is our view that simple unmanned spacecraft can 

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be reliable. Complex unmanned spacecraft have great difficulty in achieving 

even modest reliability. The MOL program is a modest extrapolation of 

Gemini duration and complexity. MOL unmanned is a much greater extrapolation 

of present unmanned capability. All manned U. S. spacecraft have accomplished 

planned stay on-orbit except Gemini 8, which still performed 2 out of 3 major 

objectives and returned its crew safely. Manual control and/or intervention by 

crew was required and effective on Mercury MA-6, MA-7 and MA-9; and 

Gemini GT-3, GT-5, GT-7 and GT-8. 

21. Enclosure S shows that there is a synergetic effect of redundancy and man 

in the loop. This analysis of X-15 shows that redundancy only is not a major 

contributor to improved reliability. This is undoubtedly due to the pilots ability 

to diagnose and reliably switch to the redundant systems when required. One of 

the current bugaboos of redundancy is the absolute necessity of higher reliability 

switches and sensors to tell when and how to switch. The magnitude of the switch 

reliability in unmanned systems (or in any system) must be an order of magnitude 

better than the reliability of the systems or the redundancy may not pay off at all 

(i. e. , have redundancy and be worse off). 

22. Enclosure T shows the MOL reliability growth versus flights for both the 

manned and the unmanned program using Program X as a basis (optimistic). 

23. Enclosure U shows the reliability growth versus flights for the MOL in a 

manned and an unmanned mode using Agena as a. basis (optimistic), 

24. The present cost of the MOL program for option six is $1, 714M. If the 

automatic part of the program were to be eliminated we would save $254M 

resulting in a $1, 460M program for a manned only MOL program. We have 

estimated a completely unmanned MOL program by looking at each subsystem 

and by adding two additional flights making a total of 7 for an unmanned program, 

and this cost is $1, 506M. The reliability cost which has been discussed leads 

us to believe that it is necessary to have a 7-shot unmanned development program 

to have an adequate reliability to proceed with an operational program. We have 

estimated the cost of each manned MOL at $102. 1M per flight. I have estimated 

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the.manned/automatic at $106. 7M per flight. We have estimated an unmanned 

version of M/A.M to cost $84. 6M per flight. (Courtesy of John Wilson) 

25. Enclosure V shows the total program costs for '5 years as a function for 

two different bases - the Agena base and the Program X base. These data 

show that the reliability growth is a key factor in the comparison of manned 

and unmanned systems. On the Program X basis the manned and unmanned 

are a standoff. To obtain this high a reliability requires and extrapolation of 

18:1 for duration and complexity - an optimistic assumption on the reliability 

growth of the unmanned system. The Agena shows that using the manned/AM 

to develop the unmanned can be cost effective in later years providing approximately 8 manned flights are used to develop the unmanned version. Using 

Gemini as a base we would find manned at 90% reliability and unmanned at 

25%. Therefore, the manned system is - 

[

f 84. 5 \ (.901 = 2 

k 102. 1 / . 25 

133% more cost effective than the unmanned system. 

26. Details on the cost comparison of MAM only and unmanned are available 

from John Wilson upon request. 

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ENCLOSURE A 

A COMPARISON OF THE MANNED AND UNMANNED VERSIONS 

OF MOL 

1. The manned MOL system does not require the use of the V/r sensor. 

This instrument is relatively undeveloped and quite complex, yet it is a 

mandatory instrument for the unmanned system and must be developed on 

time and highly reliably, whereas it is totally unnecessary for the manned 

system. 

2. The unmanned MOL system requires the use of star trackers, which 

is another major development that is unnecessary in the manned system. 

3. It is highly desirable (if not mandatory) for the unmanned system to have 

an across-the-format IMC (Image Motion Comparison). Eastman Kodak is 

alleged to believe that this will complicate their 9-1/2" camera. It is not 

certain at this juncture that failiire of across-the-format IMC can, for 

certain, avoid failure in the manned case of the 9-172" camera (i. e. , failsafe). Therefore, the across-the-format IMC for the manned system should 

probably be avoided. 

4. In the manned case should the 9-1/2" camera fail, it is our opinion that 

enough film should be taken along for the 5" camera to photograph a large 

percentage of the high priority targets. So in the manned case, not only can 

we have a simpler 9-1/2" camera, but can get complete backup from a third 

camera system, if you will, to "guarantee" camera operation on orbit. 

5. The unmanned system is presently configured to operate with the low g 

accelerometer. This accelerometer is a development that only one company 

elected to bid to GE. This indicates that low g accelerometers are not present 

state-of-the-art. For the manned system the low g accelerometer and attendant 

computer program) is not required. 

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6. It is required that a large amount of data be reliably transmitted through 

the spacecraft to operate successfully in the unmanned mode. In the manned 

mode the only mandatory items to get to the spacecraft are time to go and 

roll angle of the target. In the MOL system we have a dual SGLS system. 

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This data is supposed to go directly to the computer in the normal mode. 

In the manned system the communication system has a "third" alternate mode 

using the teleprinters. In the manned system we have a. "fourth" and "fifth" 

alternate mode to get this key targeting data via voice to the crew. 'Since 

there will only be 20 or so targets per orbit, it is quite simple by secure voice 

to send up these few numbers that are crucial to the success of getting pictures. 

By some standards this could be considered 500% redundancy. 

7. The MOL system has dual computers. In the unmanned case additional 

equipment is needed to sense which computer is operating currently and switch 

on the operable computer. In the manned case it is quite simple for the astronaut 

to image some practice targets before the run to decide which computer is operating 

correctly. 

8. The interface between the computer and the tracking mirror is accomplished 

by mission module data adapter units. These are dual. Target centering is 

accomplished in the manned system by dual (redundant) acquisition and tracking 

scopes. In the unmanned case there is no certainty that the target will be in the 

field-of-view. It is, of course, hoped that the unmanned navigation system, with 

its attendant complexity, will get the target in the 1° field-of-view. 

9. The rate gyros on the pitch and roll axes of the tracking mirror are redundant. 

We would expect the astronaut to try out and select the operable set of rate gyros 

on a practice target prior to a run over the Soviet Union (or other target areas). 

10. I am told (Bob Gaylord) there are plans for redundant pitch and roll torquers 

for the tracking mirror. We would again expect the crew to make a trial run to 

select the better set of torquers to drive the tracking mirror by operating on a 

practice target. 

11. The attitude control system is composed of about 5 or 6 modes in the manual 

case.. . A number of the NASA Mercury and Gemini flights have shown that by 

manual operation the spacecraft can be held to about 1° in angle and rates that 

are about half to 1/3 that accomplished in the autopilot mode. The astronauts 

should be expected to try out the coarse mode, the fine mode, the orbit plane 

mode, the ground track mode, the ion sensor mode; and, if all of these fail, then 

it is our plan that the crew would directly control the thrustersffantincdlitelalviigasntthe E 

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spacecraft to the ground track and the horizon and trim to low rates and then 

permit the tracking mirror to do its job. This means not only many modes, 

which back each other up, but in the final analysis there is no electronics 

between the stick and the thrusters; therefore, we expect a very high 

reliability. 

la. The translation propulsion system is "400%" redundant from a thruster 

point of view. It is expected that the crew will know whether 1, 1, 3 or 4 

engines are firing by observing the accelerometer display. They (or he) will 

also be able to tell from yaw or pitch whether there is an asymmetric 

longitudinal thrust. Once deciding how many engines are firing and observing 

the integrating accelerometer, it is easy for the crew to decide the required 

burning time and perform a manual shutoff target to get very accurate A V 

for orbit adjustment. So in effect, all that is needed to have orbit adjust 

propulsion is manual attitude control plus a clock. 'We will provide redundant 

clocks. The limiting case should be the navigators wrist watch with a sweep 

second hand. 

13. The attitude propulsion tankage system is composed of 4 pairs of oxidizers 

and fuel which can be considered 400% redundant. Should it be found that three 

of the pairs have failed, it is necessary for the crew to use 3 or 4 hundred 

pounds of propellant to raise the perigee and then use the remaining fuel in the 

pair of tanks for attitude control and, of course, the crew must husband the fuel. 

The attitude thrusters can permit any two engines out and still control pitch, yaw, 

and roll. In the Gemini case except for GT-8, two thrusters failed closed on 

every manned flight and, needless to say, these manned flights were 100% 

successful. The GT-8 flight, where a thruster failed open was a dramatic 

example of success in manned missions, whereas unmanned missions would 

have been total catastrophe. 

14. The MOL system incorporates three fuel cells, any one of which will 

permit continuance of the mission. Full and complete operation of all facets 

of the-mission can be done with only two of the cells operating. Should two fuel 

cells fail, we are examining to what extent we can conserve power and attempt 

to get a limited number ofillimages. 

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15. The case of the stuck mirror is being examined to see what degraded 

modes may be possible under these conditions. 

16. We are quite sure that much more work needs to be done on each and 

every subsystem and sub-subsystem to improve the operability of the manned 

(and unmanned) MOL in degraded, degraded, degraded modes. 

CONCLUSION 

A. We shall attempt to quantify the previously mentioned items. 

B. It is quite clear that for this MOL Dorian mission that the maimed system 

can (if we do our job right) be made in the same reliability class as Gemini-A 

was with its 26, 000 active element groups for 14 days, although MOL has 42, 000 

active element groups and a 30-day mission. 

C. Although we have in the unmanned MOL a great amount of redundancy, it 

should be clearly understood that a number of complex equipments such as the 

Star Tracker, V/r sensor, and the digital communication link are a mandatory 

part of the unmanned system and are not needed at all for the manned system. 

D. The concept for the manned MOL shall be "elegance in simplicity". 

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