FAPRI-CARD Model Solution

FAPRI Staff
Econometric Models of Agricultural Markets

U.S. and International Models

Crops Livestock Dairy

Aggregate 

Measures Other

Cattle-Beef

Swine-Pork

Cheese

Poultry

Butter

Non-Fat Dry

Milk

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

Rice

Cotton

Sugar

Government 

Costs

Cash Receipts

Production Exp.

Farm Income

Consumer 

Food Exp

Value of Ag 

Exports

Barley

Sorghum

Federal Crop 

Turkey Insurance

Eggs

Biomass

Biofuel
Country Coverage by Commodity
Country Coverage by Commodity
Country Coverage by Commodity
Country Coverage by Commodity
Country Coverage by Commodity
Country Coverage by Commodity
Basic Crop Sector Model

International

Prices

Beginning

Stocks

Yield

Area

Domestic Supply

Price

Transmission

Feed

Demand

Food

Demand

Ending

Stocks

Other

Demand

Domestic Demand

Net Exports

Exports

Imports
International

Prices

Oil

Supply

Crush

Demand

Domestic Supply

Price

Transmission

Net Exports

Exports

Imports

Meal

Supply Food

Demand

Ending

Stocks

Domestic Demand

Feed

Demand

Industrial

Demand

Basic Oilseed Complex Model
Basic Livestock Sector Model

International

Prices

Beginning

Inventory

Breeding

Stock

Births

Domestic Supply

Market-Clearing

Price

Slaughter

Food

Demand

Ending

Stocks

Domestic Demand

Net Exports

Imports Exports

Ending

Inventory
Beef-Cattle Biological Process
Beef-Cattle Biological Process continued
Pork-Swine Biological Process

Sow

Slaughter

Gilt/Barrow

Slaughter

Carcass 

Weight

Pork

Production

 Pork

Supply

 Pork

Disappearance

Import Export

Beginning

Stocks

Ending

Stocks
Pork-Swine Biological Process

Breeding

Addition

Pig

Crop

Breeding

Inventory

Death

Gilt/Barrow

Slaughter

Liveweight

Gilt/Barrow

Liveweight

Pork

Production

Sow

Slaughter

Liveweight

Sow

Gilt/Barrow

Inventory

Export Import
Dairy Product Supply

Milk Used

For Cheese

Fluid

Demand

Cow

Inventory

Raw Milk

Supply

Other Milk

Consumption

Milk Used

For NFD

Milk Yield

Per Cow

Milk Used

For WMP

Manufacturing

Demand

Cheese

Supply

NFD

Production

WMP

Production

Butter

Supply
Basic Biofuel Sector Model

International

Prices

Beginning

Inventory

Capacity

Capacity

Utilization

Domestic Supply

Market-Clearing

Price

Production

Voluntary

E-10

Ending

Stocks

Domestic Demand

Net Exports

Imports Exports

E-85

Additive
Model Solution
Equilibrium price search procedure

1

( ) ( ) ij ij ij ij p p D p S p        

where:

p is price

i is iteration index

j is commodity index

D is demand

S is supply

 > 0 is adjustment factor

ij ij 1

p p 

in equilibrium

D

S

Q

P

Pi

P’i

Pe

i

j
Model Interactions
Land Allocation Structure in Brazil

Total Ag Area

Grain Area Oilseed Area Others Area

Ag NR

Grain NR

Other NR

Oilseeds NR

Pasture NR

Pasture
Yield Specification in the EU

 Intensification

• Allocative efficiency adjustment 

(short-run 0.013)

– Current revenue-cost ratio

• Technical efficiency adjustment 

(long-run 0.061)

– Moving average revenue-cost 

ratio

 Extensification

• Yield drag with area expansion 

(-0.023)

Y

X

F

A

1

3

. 2

.

.

. F’

4
DDGS Specification

 Determining Variables

• Adoption

– 0.59, 0.46, 0.21, 1.00

• Maximum Inclusion Rate

– 50, 25, 25, 30

• Displacement Rate

– (1.196, 0) and (0.731, 0.633)

 Efficiency gains impact

• Gain in ruminants

• No gain in monogastrics

 Model Impact

• Cost adjustment

• Substitution of feedgrains

• Substitution of oilmeals
Thank You!