Simulation Statistics for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters (10000 samples)

LCC Savings Percentile

min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $0 $902 $54 $0 $0 $0 $0 $294

3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $0 $1,733 $101 $0 $0 $0 $0 $556

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $0 $2,526 $203 $0 $0 $0 $329 $831

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $0 $3,242 $295 $0 $0 $128 $507 $1,056

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle -$90 $4,029 $391 $0 $0 $234 $652 $1,319

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle -$59 $4,435 $495 $0 $87 $339 $781 $1,508

Payback Periods Percentile

min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 

3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 0.3 2.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.9 

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle 1.1 16.8 3.3 1.5 1.9 2.3 4.1 8.0 

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle 0.0 10.9 2.1 0.0 1.4 1.9 2.6 5.2 

Annual Oil Use (MMBtu) Percentile

min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) 7.99 68.11 21.61 11.55 16.29 20.60 25.73 35.44 

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) 7.53 67.50 21.09 11.05 15.79 20.09 25.20 34.91 

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 6.64 66.34 20.10 10.11 14.83 19.09 24.23 33.74 

3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 5.82 65.27 19.18 9.21 13.93 18.18 23.28 32.75 

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 5.05 64.28 18.32 8.37 13.12 17.33 22.40 31.75 

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 4.33 63.35 17.51 7.58 12.34 16.56 21.59 30.94 

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle 3.88 59.84 16.36 6.94 11.46 15.46 20.23 29.04 

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle 3.69 58.23 15.84 6.65 11.06 14.97 19.59 28.18 

Annual Electricity Use (kWh) Percentile

min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) 22 185 61 32 46 58 72 99 

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) 21 183 59 31 44 57 71 98 

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 18 180 57 28 42 54 68 95 

3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 16 177 54 26 39 51 65 92 

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 14 174 52 24 37 49 63 89 

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 12 172 49 21 35 47 61 87 

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle 11 162 46 20 32 43 57 82 

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle 10 158 45 19 31 42 55 79 

Retail Price Percentile

min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $1,223 $1,725 $1,328 $1,223 $1,250 $1,258 $1,397 $1,546 

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,235 $1,744 $1,342 $1,235 $1,262 $1,271 $1,413 $1,562 

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $1,247 $1,760 $1,355 $1,247 $1,275 $1,285 $1,427 $1,577 

3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,275 $1,781 $1,380 $1,275 $1,303 $1,314 $1,445 $1,612 

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $1,258 $1,776 $1,367 $1,258 $1,286 $1,296 $1,440 $1,591 

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $1,288 $1,799 $1,394 $1,288 $1,316 $1,328 $1,460 $1,628 

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $1,421 $1,963 $1,534 $1,421 $1,452 $1,470 $1,598 $1,796 

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $1,418 $1,971 $1,534 $1,418 $1,449 $1,466 $1,604 $1,792 

Installation Cost Percentile

min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 

3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $478 $1,317 $646 $500 $555 $621 $712 $873 

Total Installed Price Percentile

min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $1,702 $2,910 $1,974 $1,755 $1,849 $1,949 $2,071 $2,283 

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,714 $2,929 $1,988 $1,767 $1,862 $1,963 $2,086 $2,299 

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $1,726 $2,945 $2,001 $1,780 $1,875 $1,976 $2,099 $2,314 

3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,754 $2,966 $2,026 $1,808 $1,903 $2,001 $2,124 $2,338 

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $1,737 $2,961 $2,013 $1,791 $1,887 $1,989 $2,112 $2,327 

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $1,766 $2,984 $2,040 $1,821 $1,916 $2,014 $2,138 $2,353 

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $1,900 $3,148 $2,180 $1,957 $2,053 $2,152 $2,280 $2,504 

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $1,897 $3,156 $2,180 $1,954 $2,051 $2,153 $2,281 $2,508 

Annual Maintenance Cost Percentile

min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 

3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $153 $294 $157 $153 $153 $153 $153 $153 

Annual Repair Cost Percentile

min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

First Year Operating Cost Percentile

min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $324 $1,646 $625 $405 $508 $602 $716 $927 

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $314 $1,632 $614 $394 $497 $591 $704 $915 

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $295 $1,607 $592 $374 $477 $570 $682 $890 

3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $278 $1,584 $572 $355 $458 $550 $662 $867 

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $261 $1,562 $554 $337 $440 $532 $643 $847 

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $246 $1,542 $536 $319 $423 $514 $625 $829 

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $236 $1,465 $511 $305 $404 $490 $595 $788 

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $232 $1,429 $500 $299 $395 $479 $582 $770 

Total Operating Cost (sum over lifetime discounted) Percentile

min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $1,514 $27,148 $6,655 $3,121 $4,561 $6,074 $8,069 $12,233 

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,478 $26,845 $6,530 $3,044 $4,465 $5,957 $7,921 $12,026 

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $1,391 $26,273 $6,295 $2,896 $4,282 $5,737 $7,645 $11,670 

3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,307 $25,743 $6,076 $2,760 $4,108 $5,529 $7,394 $11,325 

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $1,229 $25,251 $5,872 $2,633 $3,952 $5,339 $7,162 $11,017 

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $1,155 $24,791 $5,681 $2,515 $3,799 $5,157 $6,942 $10,726 

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $1,107 $23,547 $5,407 $2,397 $3,621 $4,908 $6,611 $10,194 

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $1,086 $22,978 $5,283 $2,347 $3,538 $4,795 $6,457 $9,955 

Household Characteristics Percentile

min max average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

Tank size (gallons) 32 50 38 32 32 32 50 50

Baseline Efficiency 0.51 0.68 0.60 0.51 0.55 0.60 0.66 0.68

Lifetime 6.1 33.2 13.0 7.7 10.1 12.4 15.3 20.1

DiscountRate 0.0% 29.3% 4.8% 0.1% 2.0% 3.5% 6.7% 12.9%

Outdoor Temperature (oF) 39 55 49 40 47 50 51 55

Inlet Water Temperature (oF) 33 79 52 42 48 52 56 64

Indoor Temp. inside House (oF) 60 74 68 65 67 69 70 72

Temp. of Air around the Water Heater, oF (Tamb in oF) 44 73 59 51 55 58 63 70

Tank Setpoint Temperature (oF) 120 140 124 120 120 120 128 138

Average Daily Hot Water Draw (gal/day) 1 174 45 11 28 42 59 89

Markups (baseline) 1.54 1.95 1.61 1.54 1.55 1.57 1.58 1.95

Markups (incremental) 1.22 1.54 1.29 1.22 1.23 1.25 1.30 1.54

2015 Average Baseline Oil Prices (2009$/MMBtu) $29.66 $30.59 $30.08 $29.69 $29.71 $30.27 $30.36 $30.54

2015 Average Baseline Electricity Prices (2009$/kWh) $0.11 $0.20 $0.17 $0.14 $0.14 $0.17 $0.20 $0.20

Water Heater Installed in 1 = in heated basement 20.5%

Water Heater Installed in 2 = in unheated basement 48.4%

Water Heater Installed in 3 = in garage 31.1%

Water Heater Installed in 4 = inside house 0.0%

Water Heater Installed in 5 = attic 0.0%

Tank Size 32 gal 66.6%

Tank Size 50 gal 33.4%
Simulation Summary for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters Simulation Results - 10000 samples AEO 2010 - Reference Case (Early Release)

USER OPTIONS: LCC Results Payback Results

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average Impact Undefined

Energy Price Trend AEO 2010 - Reference Case (Early Release) 0 0.53 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $1,974 $6,655 $8,629

1 0.54 - Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,988 $6,530 $8,518 $0 0% 100% 0% NA NA 100% 0% 

Start Year 2015 2 0.56 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $2,001 $6,295 $8,296 $54 0% 76% 24% 0.6 0.6 76% 0% 

3 0.58 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $2,026 $6,076 $8,102 $101 0% 76% 24% 0.9 0.9 76% 0% 

# of Trials 4 0.60 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $2,013 $5,872 $7,885 $203 0% 54% 46% 0.3 0.2 54% 0% 

5 0.62 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $2,040 $5,681 $7,721 $295 0% 47% 53% 0.5 0.7 47% 0% 

Rebound = 0% 6 0.66 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle$2,180 $5,407 $7,587 $391 2% 33% 65% 2.3 3.3 33% 0% 

7 0.68 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $2,180 $5,283 $7,463 $495 0% 17% 83% 1.9 2.1 17% 0% 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case (Early Release)

2015

10000 Run
LCC & Payback Calculations for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

RECS Household #141

Import Parameters

Year of Purchase Year of Purchase 2015

Lifetime 13.0 years

Discount Rate 7.6%

Baseline Efficiency Level 3 EF = 0.55

Efficiency Annual Energy Use

Eff. Retail

Level Description EF Oil Elec Price

(MMBtu) (kWh) ($)

0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) 0.50 13.9 38 $1,404 

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.51 13.4 37 $1,420 

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 0.53 12.6 35 $1,434 

>> 3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.55 11.9 33 $1,452 

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 0.57 11.2 31 $1,447 

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 0.59 10.5 29 $1,467 

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle 0.63 9.7 27 $1,606 

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle 0.65 9.4 26 $1,612 

All dollar values are in 2009 $

HOUSEHOLD INFORMATION:

RECS Household # 141

Water Heater Tank Size 50 gallons

2015 2015 2008

Energy Prices for Household (in 2009$) Avg Price Price Factor Avg Price

Oil Price $30.49 1.23 $24.81 $ / MMBtu

Elec. Price $0.14 1.11 $0.13 $ / kWh

Install- Total Annual Annual First Year Cumul. life_ Total

ation Installed Maint. Repair Oper. Cost Cash Cycle LCC Pay- Operating Net

Cost Price Cost Cost* 2015 Flow Cost Saving back Cost Cost

($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) (year)

$779 $2,183 $153 $0 $457 $8,652 $6,169 $3,987

$779 $2,199 $153 $0 $447 $8,530 $6,101 $0 NA $3,902

$779 $2,212 $153 $0 $430 $8,282 $5,954 $0 NA $3,741

$779 $2,231 $153 $0 $413 $8,058 $5,823 $0 NA $3,593

$779 $2,226 $153 $0 $398 $7,828 $5,680 $143 0.0 $3,455

$779 $2,246 $153 $0 $384 $7,638 $5,572 $252 0.5 $3,326

$779 $2,385 $153 $0 $367 $7,524 $5,556 $268 3.3 $3,171

$779 $2,391 $153 $0 $359 $7,418 $5,493 $331 3.0 $3,102

* Annual repair cost used only after warranty period 

Annual Cash Flow Calculations

Oil Price Elec. Price Discount

Age Year Trend Trend Factor 0 1

0 1.00 $2,183 $2,199

1 2015 0.87 0.93 0.93 $457 $447

2 2016 0.91 0.94 0.86 $470 $460

3 2017 0.94 0.96 0.80 $479 $469

4 2018 0.96 0.96 0.75 $488 $478

No Net PB PB 5 2019 0.98 0.96 0.69 $494 $484

Impact Benefit no impact undefined 6 2020 0.99 0.97 0.65 $499 $489

7 2021 1.00 0.98 0.60 $501 $491

8 2022 1.01 0.98 0.56 $504 $493

1 1 9 2023 1.02 0.99 0.52 $509 $498

1 1 10 2024 1.03 0.99 0.48 $511 $500

1 1 11 2025 1.04 0.99 0.45 $515 $504

1 12 2026 1.05 0.99 0.42 $519 $508

1 13 2027 1.06 1.00 0.39 $522 $510

1 14 2028 1.07 1.01 0.36 $526 $515

1 15 2029 1.09 1.03 0.33 $532 $520

16 2030 1.09 1.03 0.31 $534 $522

17 2031 1.11 1.04 0.29 $540 $528

18 2032 1.13 1.05 0.27 $546 $534

19 2033 1.14 1.06 0.25 $551 $539

20 2034 1.16 1.07 0.23 $557 $544

21 2035 1.18 1.07 0.22 $563 $550

22 2036 1.19 1.08 0.20 $567 $554

23 2037 1.20 1.09 0.19 $572 $559

24 2038 1.22 1.10 0.17 $576 $563

25 2039 1.23 1.10 0.16 $581 $568

26 2040 1.24 1.11 0.15 $585 $572

27 2041 1.26 1.12 0.14 $590 $577

28 2042 1.27 1.13 0.13 $595 $581

29 2043 1.28 1.14 0.12 $600 $586

30 2044 1.30 1.15 0.11 $605 $591

31 2045 1.31 1.16 0.10 $610 $595

32 2046 1.33 1.17 0.10 $615 $600

33 2047 1.34 1.18 0.09 $620 $605

34 2048 1.36 1.19 0.08 $625 $610

35 2049 1.37 1.20 0.08 $630 $615

36 2050 1.39 1.20 0.07 $635 $620

37 2051 1.40 1.21 0.07 $640 $625

38 2052 1.42 1.22 0.06 $646 $630

39 2053 1.43 1.23 0.06 $651 $635

40 2054 1.45 1.24 0.05 $656 $641

41 2055 1.46 1.25 0.05 $662 $646

42 2056 1.48 1.26 0.05 $667 $651

43 2057 1.49 1.27 0.04 $673 $657

44 2058 1.51 1.28 0.04 $679 $662

45 2059 1.53 1.29 0.04 $684 $668

46 2060 1.54 1.30 0.03 $690 $673

47 2061 1.56 1.31 0.03 $696 $679

48 2062 1.58 1.32 0.03 $702 $685

49 2063 1.60 1.33 0.03 $708 $691

50 2064 1.61 1.35 0.03 $714 $697

51 2065 1.63 1.36 0.02 $720 $702

52 2066 1.65 1.37 0.02 $726 $708

53 2067 1.67 1.38 0.02 $732 $714

54 2068 1.68 1.39 0.02 $739 $721

55 2069 1.70 1.40 0.02 $745 $727
56 2070 1.72 1.41 0.02 $752 $733

57 2071 1.74 1.42 0.02 $758 $739

58 2072 1.76 1.43 0.01 $765 $746

59 2073 1.78 1.44 0.01 $771 $752

60 2074 1.80 1.46 0.01 $778 $759

61 2075 1.82 1.47 0.01 $785 $765

62 2076 1.84 1.48 0.01 $792 $772

63 2077 1.86 1.49 0.01 $799 $779

64 2078 1.88 1.50 0.01 $806 $786

65 2079 1.90 1.51 0.01 $813 $792

66 2080 1.92 1.53 0.01 $820 $799

67 2081 1.94 1.54 0.01 $827 $806

68 2082 1.96 1.55 0.01 $835 $814

69 2083 1.98 1.56 0.01 $842 $821
Annual Cash Flow by Efficiency Level

2 3 4 5 6 7

$2,212 $2,231 $2,226 $2,246 $2,385 $2,391

$430 $413 $398 $384 $367 $359

$442 $425 $409 $394 $376 $368

$450 $432 $416 $401 $382 $374

$458 $440 $423 $408 $389 $380

$464 $445 $428 $412 $393 $384

$468 $450 $432 $416 $397 $388

$470 $451 $434 $418 $398 $389

$473 $454 $436 $420 $400 $391

$477 $458 $440 $423 $403 $394

$479 $460 $442 $425 $405 $396

$483 $463 $445 $428 $408 $399

$486 $466 $448 $431 $410 $401

$489 $469 $450 $433 $412 $403

$493 $473 $454 $437 $416 $406

$498 $478 $459 $441 $420 $410

$500 $480 $460 $443 $421 $412

$506 $485 $465 $447 $425 $416

$511 $490 $470 $451 $429 $419

$515 $494 $474 $455 $433 $423

$521 $499 $479 $460 $437 $427

$526 $504 $483 $464 $441 $431

$530 $508 $487 $468 $444 $434

$534 $512 $491 $471 $447 $437

$538 $516 $494 $474 $451 $440

$543 $520 $498 $478 $454 $443

$547 $524 $502 $481 $457 $446

$551 $528 $506 $485 $460 $449

$556 $532 $509 $489 $464 $453

$560 $536 $513 $492 $467 $456

$564 $540 $517 $496 $471 $459

$569 $544 $521 $500 $474 $463

$573 $548 $525 $504 $478 $466

$578 $553 $529 $507 $481 $469

$583 $557 $533 $511 $485 $473

$587 $561 $537 $515 $488 $476

$592 $566 $542 $519 $492 $480

$597 $570 $546 $523 $496 $483

$602 $575 $550 $527 $499 $487

$606 $580 $554 $531 $503 $491

$611 $584 $559 $535 $507 $494

$616 $589 $563 $539 $511 $498

$621 $594 $568 $544 $515 $502

$627 $598 $572 $548 $519 $506

$632 $603 $577 $552 $523 $509

$637 $608 $581 $557 $527 $513

$642 $613 $586 $561 $531 $517

$647 $618 $591 $565 $535 $521

$653 $623 $596 $570 $539 $525

$658 $628 $600 $574 $543 $529

$664 $634 $605 $579 $547 $533

$669 $639 $610 $584 $552 $537

$675 $644 $615 $588 $556 $542

$681 $649 $620 $593 $561 $546

$686 $655 $625 $598 $565 $550

$692 $660 $630 $603 $569 $555
$698 $666 $636 $608 $574 $559

$704 $671 $641 $613 $579 $563

$710 $677 $646 $618 $583 $568

$716 $683 $652 $623 $588 $572

$722 $688 $657 $628 $593 $577

$728 $694 $663 $633 $597 $581

$735 $700 $668 $638 $602 $586

$741 $706 $674 $643 $607 $591

$747 $712 $679 $649 $612 $596

$754 $718 $685 $654 $617 $600

$761 $724 $691 $660 $622 $605

$767 $731 $697 $665 $627 $610

$774 $737 $703 $671 $632 $615

$781 $743 $709 $676 $638 $620
Rebuttable Payback Period Calculation for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Rebuttable PBP is determined based on DOE's Water Heater Test Procedure conditions (10 CFR, 430 subpart B, Appendix E) 

Manufacturer 

Production Cost (MPC)*

Total Manufacturer 

Selling Price (MSP)**

2009$ 2009$

Oil Water Heaters (32 Gallons) - Representative Rated Storage Volume

0 0.53 EF Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $599 $795

1 0.54 EF Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $606 $805

2 0.56 EF Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $613 $815

3 0.58 EF Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $625 $838

4 0.6 EF Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $620 $824

5 0.62 EF Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $633 $848

6 0.66 EF Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $717 $957

7 0.68 EF Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $722 $955

Energy 

Factor Potential Design Option

* The manufacturing production cost (MPC) includes the direct labor, direct material, and direct overhead. 

** The manufacturing selling price (MSP) includes manufacturer profit and non-production costs, such as selling, general and administrative expenses, res

Efficiency 

Levels

Cost Data

Manufacturer Costs (per unit) from Engineering Analysis

Energy Use Calculation for Wat

Incremental 

MSP Retail Installation

Maintenanc

e Fuel Electric

Total 

Installed

Total 

Operating

Simple 

Payback

2009$ 2009$ 2009$ 2009$ MBtu/yr kWh/year 2009$ 2009$/yr years

$1,278 $646 $157 27.64 79 $1,924 $1,002 0

$10 $1,291 $646 $157 27.13 77 $1,937 $986 0.8 1

$20 $1,304 $646 $157 26.16 74 $1,950 $956 0.6 2

$43 $1,333 $646 $157 25.26 72 $1,980 $929 0.8 3

$29 $1,316 $646 $157 24.42 70 $1,962 $903 0.4 4

$53 $1,347 $646 $157 23.63 67 $1,993 $879 0.6 5

$162 $1,488 $646 $157 22.20 63 $2,134 $835 1.3 6

$160 $1,485 $646 $157 21.55 61 $2,131 $815 1.1 7

eneral and administrative expenses, research and development, and interest.

Cost Data Energy Use Data Summary Economics

from Engineering Analysis Consumer Costs from the LCC Analysis Total Costs

Energy Use Calculation for Water Heaters (10 CFR, 430 subpart B, Appendix E)

Product Class Vst QIN QP EF RE

gallons Btuhr Btu/hr %

0.53 EF - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) 32 100,000 0 0.53 76%

0.54 EF - Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) 32 100,000 0 0.54 76%

0.56 EF - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 32 100,000 0 0.56 76%

0.58 EF - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 32 100,000 0 0.58 76%

0.6 EF - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 32 100,000 0 0.60 76%

0.62 EF - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 32 100,000 0 0.62 76%

0.66 EF - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle 32 100,000 0 0.66 80%

0.68 EF - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle 32 100,000 0 0.68 82%

Equations for calculating the Energy Consumption of Oil-Fired Storage-Type Water Heaters

EAnnual_Fuel = EAnnual - EAnnual_Electricity / 3.412

EAnnual_Electricity = 365 * Zaux

EAnnual = 365 * QDM

QDM = (MTotal * CP * ( Tdel - Tin ) ) / E F

Zaux = P_IG * Cycles * t_IG / 60 + P_Blower * (Q_DM ) / Q_IN + P_Standby * (24 - (

MTotal = Ut * d2

Variable Definitions

EF = Energy Factor 

CP = Specific heat capacity of water (assumed to be constant at each draw) = 1.0 

Tdel = Nominal mean storage tank temperature = 135 °F

Tin = Nominal cold water supply temperature = 58 °F

Ut = daily hot water consumption = 64.3 gallons

d2 = density of water in lb/gal at the mean outlet water temperature = 8.204

PIG = Electricity consumption by ignition device

Cycles = Number of draws per day = 6 Assumption based on DOE Test Procedure 24 hr test

TIG = Time ignition device is on

Paux = Electricity consumption by blower or controls while water heater is on

QIN = Rated fuel input capacity

PStandby = Electricity use during standby

Pig tig Paux Pstandby Ut d2 Mtotal Cp Cycles Zaux TAMB

kW min/cycle kW kW gal/day lb/gal lb/day Btu/lb °F Draws/day kWh/day °F

0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.216 67.5

0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.212 67.5

0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.204 67.5

0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.197 67.5

0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.190 67.5

0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.184 67.5

0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.173 67.5

0.000 0.00 0.282 0.000 64.3 8.204 527 0.998 6.00 0.168 67.5

Notes

Annual Gas Fuel Energy Consumption

Annual auxilary electrical energy consumption

Annual Energy Consumption (Section 6.1.8)

Daily water heating energy consumption (Section 6.1.7). Assumes specific heat of water is constant.

r * (Q_DM ) / Q_IN + P_Standby * (24 - (Q_DM ) / Q_IN) Electrical energy used by any auxilary electric equipment (kWh) Assumes that Zaux is very small compared to QDM.

Total mass of water withdrawn (Assumes specific heat of water is constant and density of water constant)

med to be constant at each draw) = 1.0 Btu/°F *lb

 outlet water temperature = 8.204

DOE Test Procedure 24 hr test

controls while water heater is on

TIN TTANK UA QDM EAnnual EAnnual_fuel EAnnual_aux_elec BurnerON BurnerOFF

°F °F Btu/hr °F Btu/day MMBTU/y MMBtu/year kWh/year hrs/year hrs/year

58 135 14.61 76,474 27.9 27.6 78.7 276 8484

58 135 13.72 75,058 27.4 27.1 77.3 271 8489

58 135 12.02 72,377 26.4 26.2 74.5 262 8498

58 135 10.45 69,881 25.5 25.3 71.9 253 8507

58 135 8.98 67,552 24.7 24.4 69.5 244 8516

58 135 7.60 65,373 23.9 23.6 67.3 236 8524

58 135 6.78 61,411 22.4 22.2 63.2 222 8538

58 135 6.41 59,605 21.8 21.5 61.4 215 8545

ery small compared to QDM.

of water constant)








Equipment Prices of Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Import Parameters Manufacturer's Cost for Oil-fired Storage Water Heater

From RECS WH

Tanksz Tank size of water heater (gal) 50 0

iTanksz Tank size index 2 1

Repl or New (1=retrofit, 2=new) 1 2

Div & Lrg State 2 3

4

Intermediate Parameters 5

Channel If New, then 3, else use A / B dist. 2 6

Baseline Markup 1.58 7

Incremental Markup 1.30

Markups for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Export Parameters Manufacturer Markup

To: LCC&PB Calcs

Sample Household: Retail Price (2009$) for 50 gal WH Markups by Category

Retail Price

0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $1,404

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,420

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $1,434

3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $1,452

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $1,447

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $1,467 Total Retail Markup by Distribution Channel

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $1,606 1

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $1,612 2

Sales Tax Rates

By Division and Large States Sales Tax % HHs 1

1 New England 6.1% 44% 2

2 Mid Atlantic 6.6% 24%

3 East North Central 6.9% 0% Average Markups for Rebuttable Payback Analysis

4 West North Central 6.9% 0%

5 South Atlantic 6.6% 2%

6 East South Central 7.9% 0%

7 West South Central 8.4% 0%

8 Mountain 6.8% 0%

9 Pacific 7.5% 0%

10 New York State 8.5% 31%

11 California 9.2% 0%

12 Texas 8.1% 0%

13 Florida 6.7% 0%

U.S. Average (weighted based on RECS households) 7.0%
Manufacturer's Cost for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters Mnfr. Selling Price (2009$) Incr. Selling Price (2009$)

32 gal 50 gal 32 gal 50 gal

Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $794.70 $886.60

Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $804.80 $899.30 $10.10 $12.70

Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $814.90 $909.40 $20.20 $22.80

Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $837.50 $923.40 $42.80 $36.80

Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $824.00 $919.80 $29.30 $33.20

Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $847.90 $935.10 $53.20 $48.50

Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $957.10 $1,041.70 $162.40 $155.10

Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $954.60 $1,046.50 $159.90 $159.90

Markups for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Manufacturer Markup

Replacement Units New Units

Markups by Category Baseline Incremental Baseline Incremental

Retailer 1.45 1.15

Distributor 1.35 1.11 1.35 1.11

Contractor 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10

Builder 1.31 1.26

Sales Tax 1.066 1.066

Total Retail Markup by Distribution Channel Baseline Incremental Baseline Incremental

Channel A 1.55 1.23 1.77 1.40

Channel B 1.58 1.30 1.95 1.54

A or B? (1=A, 2=B) 2 2

Channel A 60% 50%

Channel B 40% 50%

Average Markups for Rebuttable Payback Analysis Baseline Incremental Baseline Incremental

Total Average Retail Markup 1.57 1.26 1.86 1.47

Total Average Retail Markup (Replacement and New Units) 1.61 1.29

1.30
Mnfr. Cost (2009$) Shipping Cost (2009$)

32 gal 50 gal 32 gal 50 gal

$599.00 $662.00 $16.00 $26.00

$606.00 $671.00 $17.00 $27.00

$613.00 $678.00 $18.00 $28.00

$625.00 $688.00 $25.00 $29.00

$620.00 $686.00 $18.00 $28.00

$633.00 $697.00 $25.00 $29.00

$717.00 $779.00 $25.00 $29.00

$722.00 $785.00 $16.00 $26.00
Base Case Efficiency of Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Import Parameters Distribution of Base Case Efficiency by Tank Size

From RECS WH Tank Size 32 50

Tank Size 50 gal Eff. Level EF % EF %

0 0.53 0.00% 0.50 0.00%

Export Parameters 1 0.54 20.00% 0.51 33.33%

To: LCC&PB Calcs 2 0.56 0.00% 0.53 0.00%

Basecase Efficiency 0.55 3 0.58 0.00% 0.55 66.67%

4 0.60 10.00% 0.57 0.00%

5 0.62 20.00% 0.59 0.00%

6 0.66 25.00% 0.63 0.00%

7 0.68 25.00% 0.65 0.00%

100.00% 100.00%

Source: Models Data worksheet

Tank Size EF Dist.

32 0.54

50 0.55
Oil Water Heater Models Directory

AHRI Directory (2/17/2010)

Criteria: Energy Source= Gas; Status Type = Approved; Gas Type = Natural or Both; He

GAMA

Model ID

Energy

Source Company Name Trade Names

271193 oil BOCK WATER HEATERS INC. Bock 

to: Energy Use 271194 oil BOCK WATER HEATERS INC. Bock 

Input Rating 32 Gallon 50 Gallon 884930 oil BRADFORD WHITE CORPORATION Bradford White, Jetglas 

(kBtu/h) % % 884932 oil BRADFORD WHITE CORPORATION Bradford White, Jetglas 

90 29% 0% 432689 oil GIANT FACTORIES, INC. Giant 

103 14% 33% 432690 oil GIANT FACTORIES, INC. Giant 

104 43% 33% 3725 oil GSW WATER HEATING COMPANY GSW, John Wood, Moffat, Olse

105 14% 33% 3727 oil GSW WATER HEATING COMPANY GSW, John Wood, Moffat, Olse

100% 100% 3730 oil GSW WATER HEATING COMPANY GSW, John Wood, Moffat, Olse

3731 oil HEATTRANSFER PRODUCTS INC. Super-Stor Oil Fired 

to: Energy Use

Efficiency 32 Gallon 32 Gal - Shipment50 Gallon 

Level % Weighted (%) %

0 0% 0% 0%

1 29% 20% 33%

2 0% 0% 0%

3 0% 0% 67%

4 14% 10% 0%

5 29% 20% 0%

6 14% 25% 0%

7 14% 25% 0%

100% 100% 100%

32-Gal Shipment Weighted Assumptions

30 Gallon Bock Fraction

Bock Market Share 33% 50.0%

30 Gallon vs. 50 Gallon Fraction 67%

1) we know 2/3 of the market is 30 or 32 gallon tank sizes

2) Bock does not currently provide this tank size and is the dominant player in the market

3) If the rest of the market sold 30 vs. 50 gallons at a 50%-50% ratio then Bock has 33% of the market

Input Rating Distribution by Rated Volume

Input Rating Distribution by Rated Volume
d; Gas Type = Natural or Both; Heater Type = Storage; Basic Model = True

Model 

Number

Status 

Type

Effective 

Date Gas Type

Heater 

Type

Rated 

Volume

Input 

Rating

Energy

Factor

First Hour 

Flow Rating

Recovery

Efficiency

32E Approved 40072 none storage 32 104 0.66 130 80

32PP Approved 40072 none storage 32 104 0.68 132 82

CF-32-* Approved 39910 none storage 32 104 0.54 113 75

CF-50-* Approved 39910 none storage 50 104 0.51 130 75

OG32-US Approved 39552 none storage 32 103 0.54 120 75

OG50-US Approved 39552 none storage 50 103 0.55 150 79

JW 317 Approved 37914 none storage 30 105 0.62 150 78

JWF 307 Approved 37914 none storage 32 90 0.6 110 76

JWF 507 Approved 37914 none storage 50 105 0.55 190 76

SJ-30C Approved 37845 none storage 30 90 0.62 101 75
Heat Traps Manufactured 

Home Tabletop

Power 

Combustion or 

Power Vent

Direct Vent Electronic 

Ignition

Basic 

Model?

f f f f f f TRUE

f f f f f f TRUE

f f f f f f TRUE

f f f f f f TRUE

f f f t f t TRUE

f f f t f t TRUE

f f f f f f TRUE

f f f f f f TRUE

f f f f f f TRUE

f f f f f f TRUE
Energy Use of Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Import Parameters Annual Distillate Use

from Water Draw: Eff.

Avg daily vol. of hot water drawn by month (gal/day) Level

from Temperature:

Tin water heater inlet water temp, o

F 0

Tair temp. of air around the water heater, oF 1

Ttank water heater thermostat setting, o

F 2

from RECS WH 3

Tank Size (in gal) 50.0 4

5

from User Input: 6

Rebound = 0% 7

den density of stored water (lb/gal) 8.29

Cp spec. heat of stored water (Btu/lb-o

F) 1.000743 Annual Electricity Use

Eff.

Pon Rated Input Capacity distributions by tank size Level

Tank Size Pon (kBtu/hr) Avg Pon (kBtu/hr)

32 103 100.0 0

50 103 104.0 1

2

3

4

Tanksz Tank size of water heater (gallons) 50 5

iTanksz Tank size index 2 6

Pon Rated input capacity (Btu/hr) 103000 7

Pon Distributions by Tank Size (Based on AHRI February 2010 Directory)

32 gallons 50 gallons

Btu/yr % kBtu/yr %

90 28.57% 103 33.33%

103 14.29% 104 33.33%

104 42.86% 105 33.33%

105 14.29%

100.00% 100.00%

wt. avg 100.0 104.0

from: Models Data worksheet

Representative Pon (for Rebuttable Payback Calculation)

32 Gal 100000

50 Gal 105000

from: Models Data worksheet

nual Distillate Use 1 2 3 4

Recovery Qin - Average Daily Water Heater E

Description EF Efficiency UA Jan Feb Mar Apr

31 28 31 30

Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) 0.50 76% 17.74 41661 42013 42508 41433

Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.51 76% 16.73 40463 40815 41310 40234

Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 0.53 76% 14.81 38201 38553 39049 37972

Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.55 76% 13.03 36103 36456 36952 35874

Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 0.57 76% 11.37 34153 34506 35002 33924

Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 0.59 76% 9.83 32335 32689 33185 32106

Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle 0.63 80% 8.74 30012 30348 30820 29794

Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle0.65 82% 8.26 28968 29296 29756 28755

nual Electricity Use

with Zaux - Electricity use by an Auxiliary Electric Equipment

Description Elec. Paux Pstandby Jan Feb Mar Apr

kW kW 31 28 31 30

Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.115 0.116 0.117 0.115

Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.112 0.113 0.114 0.111

Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.106 0.107 0.108 0.105

Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.100 0.101 0.102 0.099

Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.094 0.095 0.097 0.094

Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.089 0.090 0.092 0.089

Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle TRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.083 0.084 0.085 0.082

Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffleTRUE 0.2820 0.000 0.080 0.081 0.082 0.079

Eff. Level Slope Constant 20 32 50 100

0 0.0019 0.59 0.55 0.53 0.50 0.40

1 0.0019 0.60 0.56 0.54 0.51 0.41

2 0.0019 0.62 0.58 0.56 0.53 0.43

3 0.0019 0.64 0.60 0.58 0.55 0.45

4 0.0019 0.66 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.47

5 0.0019 0.68 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.49

6 0.0019 0.72 0.68 0.66 0.63 0.53

7 0.0019 0.74 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.55

Rated Volume

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

Energy Factor (EF)

Efficiency Levels
0.40

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Rated Volume
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

- Average Daily Water Heater Energy Consumption (Btu/day) Qin - Average Daily Orig. Annual

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Water Heater Energy Use Oil Use

31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31 (Btu / day) (MMBtu)

39970 35916 31882 32143 34981 35860 37096 40440 37880 13.86

38770 34715 30857 31083 33779 34658 35895 39241 36706 13.43

36507 32448 28925 29082 31511 32391 33629 36978 34492 12.62

34408 30345 27133 27227 29407 30289 31528 34879 32438 11.87

32456 28390 25467 25502 27452 28334 29574 32928 30528 11.18

30637 26568 23914 23893 25629 26511 27752 31109 28748 10.53

28398 24531 22114 22073 23638 24477 25656 28847 26619 9.75

27393 23619 21307 21257 22747 23566 24717 27831 25663 9.40

y an Auxiliary Electric Equipment (kWh/day, when calculation does not include elec use of Q in ) Zaux - Electricity use by an Orig. Annual

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Auxilliary Elec Equipment Only Elec Use

31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31 (kWh / day) (kWh)

0.110 0.099 0.088 0.089 0.097 0.099 0.103 0.112 0.105 38.30

0.107 0.096 0.085 0.086 0.093 0.096 0.099 0.108 0.101 37.11

0.101 0.090 0.080 0.080 0.087 0.090 0.093 0.102 0.095 34.88

0.095 0.084 0.075 0.075 0.081 0.084 0.087 0.096 0.090 32.81

0.090 0.078 0.070 0.070 0.076 0.078 0.082 0.091 0.084 30.89

0.085 0.073 0.066 0.066 0.071 0.073 0.077 0.086 0.079 29.09

0.078 0.068 0.061 0.061 0.065 0.068 0.071 0.080 0.074 26.94

0.076 0.065 0.059 0.059 0.063 0.065 0.068 0.077 0.071 25.97

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7
100
w rebound Gas

Oil Annual Rebound

Saving Total Coeff.

(MMBtu) (MMBtu)

13.86 1.000

0.43 13.43 1.000

1.24 12.62 1.000

1.99 11.87 1.000

2.68 11.18 1.000

3.33 10.53 1.000

4.11 9.75 1.000

4.46 9.40 1.000

w rebound Elec

Elec Annual Rebound

Saving Total Coeff.

(kWh) (kWh)

38.30 1.000

1.18 37.11 1.000

3.42 34.88 1.000

5.49 32.81 1.000

7.41 30.89 1.000

9.21 29.09 1.000

11.36 26.94 1.000

12.33 25.97 1.000
Temperatures - (1) outdoor ambient, (2) water heater inlet, (3) indoor household, (4) air surrounding water heater, (5) water heater thermostat setting

Import Parameters season

from: RECS WH month

Location of Water Heater 1

1 = in heated basement Outside Air Temperature oF (Tair)

2 = in unheated basement Water Heater Inlet Water Temperature, oF (Tin)

3 = in garage Temp. of Indoor the Household, oF (Thouse)

4 = inside house Temp. of Air surrounding the Water Heater, oF (Tamb)

Weather Location Code IPT Water Heater Thermostat Setting, oF (Ttank)

Household Has Well 1

Avg Heating Thermostat Temp. 70 Inlet Water Temperature Offset:

Avg Cooling Thermostat Temp. 78 with Well Pump (o

F)

w/o Well Pump - District Water (oF)

Index for Weather Location Code 14 ratio =

lag =

Export Parameters Max dTair =

to: Water Draw

Seasonal Avg Temp (oF) From NREL : Development of an Energy Savings Benchmark for All Residential End

Ttank Tin Tair

1 Spring 120.0 46.9 48.8 Tmains =

2 Summer 120.0 60.2 70.4

3 Autumn 120.0 57.1 51.7 Avg(Tair,month) =

4 Winter 120.0 43.5 28.2

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

0
er, (5) water heater thermostat setting

4 4 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Avg

25.5 28.5 38.0 49.0 59.5 67.8 72.4 70.9 63.1 51.3 40.8 30.7 49.8

42.4 41.1 42.6 46.5 51.8 57.1 61.0 62.6 61.4 57.6 52.4 47.1 52.0

70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 77.4 75.9 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 71.1

70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 77.4 75.9 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 71.1

120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120.0 120.0

dist. avg. Offset = 2.0651

2.07 2.00

3.01 3.72

0.46

29

46.9

avings Benchmark for All Residential End-Uses, Aug 2004

(Avg(Tair,month) + offset) + ratio * (max(Tair,month) - min(Tair,month)) / 2 * sin(0.986 * (day# - 15 - lag) - 90)

Annual average air temperature (oF), assumed to be ambient outdoor drybulb temp.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

T ambient air

T mains

Water Draw Module

Import Parameters Average Daily Hot Water Drawn by Month (in gallons/day)

from RECS WH season 4 4 1 1 1

Tanksz Tank size of water heater (gallons) 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May

per total # of persons in household 2.00 24.7 24.7 25.8 25.8 25.8

age1 # of children age 0-5 yrs 0.00

age2 # of children age 6-13 yrs 0.00

age3 # of adults age 14-64 yrs 1.00

age4 # of adults age 65 yrs and over 1.00

athome adults at home during day 1.00

dw_adj dishwasher adjustment 0.21

cw_adj clothes washer adjustment 0.46

senior_mf senior-only household in MF home 1.0

no_pay household not paying for hot water 1.0

from Temperature

Seasonal Average Temperatures (oF)

Ttank Tin Tair

Spring 120.0 46.9 48.8

Summer 120.0 60.2 70.4

Autumn 120.0 57.1 51.7

Winter 120.0 43.5 28.2

Coeffients to calculate Water Draw

sea_coef Annual Average -1.78

Spring 1.7313

Summer -14.6017

Autumn -4.7189

Winter 10.4688

per_coef 0.901569831

age1_coef 6.8948326

age2_coef 10.43280903

age34_coef 14.87135773

Ttank_coef -0.142231744

Tanksz_coef 0.167870046

Tin_coef -0.195414807

Tair_coef 0.551726365

athome_coef 9.991755182

senior_mf_coef 0.56

no_pay_coef 0.98

22

22

23

23

24

24

25

25

26

26

1 2 3 4 5

Hot Water Use (gallons / day)

Hot Water Use
 (in gallons/day)

2 2 2 3 3 3 4 Annual

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average

22.0 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.1 24.7 23.6

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

Hot Water Use
RECS household records for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Intermediate Variables LBNL ID NWEIGHT

Household ID (LBNL) 7 1 5146.69774

2 22659.8959

for: Location of Water Heater 3 29961.7075

Home has basement TRUE 4 12080.648

Basement heated TRUE 5 14540.7811

Home has garage FALSE 6 13303.0945

Home has crawl space FALSE 7 25355.7066

8 11577.2876

for: Water Heater Tank Size 9 11921.6921

RECS Water Heater Tank Size Index 3 10 17036.8112

1 = Small (30 gallons or less) 22% 11 11185.7851

2 = Medium (31 to 49 gallons) 54% 12 14540.7811

3 = Large (50 gallons or more) 25% 13 11921.6921

6 = Tankless 14 31875.1

Distribution of Medium WH Size 1 15 14027.8891

1 = 32 gal; 2 = 50 gal 16 29556.5138

17 14540.7811

Export Parameters 18 5360.72523

to: Summary 19 13842.4091

RECS household # 141 20 15100.8099

Heating Fuel Type (3 = oil) 3 21 13842.4091

22 24411.0194

to: Energy Price Trends 23 14168.6612

Division 2 24 3323.50798

25 11921.6921

to: Energy Prices, Equip Price (sales tax) 26 15100.8099

Division & Large State 2 27 19385.6461

28 37430.2297

to: Discount Rate & Equip Price (markup) 29 34073.7695

retrofit or new? 1 30 11185.7851

1 = retrofit 85% 31 13303.0945

2 = new 15% 32 13303.0945

33 21319.1999

to: Water Draw 34 22736.1725

total # of persons in household per 2 35 36527.7912

# of children age 0-5 yrs age1 0 36 17489.4179

# of children age 6-13 yrs age2 0 37 3708.84224

# of adults age 14-64 yrs age3 1 38 14872.5408

# of adults age 65 yrs and over age4 1 39 24411.0194

adults at home during day athome 1 40 11921.6921

no dishwasher no_dw FALSE 41 24411.0194

no clothes washer no_cw FALSE 42 15945.5573

senior-only household in MF home senior_mf FALSE 43 4756.69048

household not paying for hot water no_pay FALSE 44 14399.1686

45 17618.6747

to: Water Draw, Energy Use, Equip Price, Base Case EF 46 30722.8301

Water Heater Tank Size 50 47 11106.2125

48 14399.1686

to: Temperature 49 5573.0939

Weather Location Code IPT 50 12268.984

Household Has Well pump 1 51 11921.6921

Average Heating Thermostat Temp. 70.0 52 14399.1686

Average Cooling Thermostat Temp. 78.0 53 4142.51108

Location of Water Heater 1 54 37430.2297

1 = in heated basement 55 15223.072

2 = in unheated basement 56 5763.55439

Oil WH size assignment:

If WHsize=1 (small), tank size = 32 gal

If WHsize=2 (medium), tank size = 32 gal (69.2%), 50 gal (
3 = in garage 57 13422.9422

4 = inside house 58 27534.7595

location choice1 59 17036.8112

60 30842.5011

Frequency of Water Heater Location 61 14540.7811

1 = in heated basement11 62 25531.7879

2 = in unheated basement20 63 37430.2297

3 = in garage,crawl space, outdoor closet 30 64 4635.33883

4 = inside house40 65 25355.7066

5 = attic50 66 22659.8959

Frequency of Water Heater Tank Size 67 11185.7851

30 gal 320 68 17489.4179

50 gal 501 69 28746.9019

70 13303.0945

71 52419.2848

72 22659.8959

73 13303.0945

74 14588.2985

75 24411.0194

76 14540.7811

77 24411.0194

78 12080.648

79 29066.9585

80 25355.7066

81 24411.0194

82 42408.4391

83 29578.178

84 24411.0194

85 11921.6921

86 15100.8099

87 3323.50798

88 27456.3887

89 4635.33883

90 13303.0945

91 4027.00555

92 13553.5161

93 18798.2023

94 12080.648

95 14588.2985

96 30722.8301

97 3323.50798

98 17036.8112

99 14399.1686

100 14588.2985





































DOEID REGIONC DIVISION LRGSTATE Division + 

Lrg State CD65 HD65 TYPEHUQ YEARMADE NCOMBATH

34 1 2 0 2 1179 5317 2 3 2

45 1 2 0 2 1139 5658 3 1 1

63 3 5 0 5 947 4055 1 3 1

86 1 1 0 1 962 5834 2 1 2

114 1 1 0 1 764 6549 2 1 3

133 1 1 0 1 249 9089 2 9 2

141 1 2 0 2 913 6004 2 2 1

289 1 1 0 1 920 6299 2 2 2

296 1 1 0 1 687 6831 2 8 2

354 1 1 0 1 763 6273 2 2 1

407 1 1 0 1 533 7292 2 12 1

429 1 1 0 1 1038 5867 2 1 2

511 1 1 0 1 778 6662 2 5 2

525 1 2 0 2 1058 5485 2 2 1

540 1 1 0 1 865 6366 2 4 1

622 1 2 1 10 789 7423 2 5 3

675 1 1 0 1 876 6062 2 3 2

711 1 2 1 10 263 7483 2 1 1

759 1 1 0 1 692 6663 2 8 4

784 1 1 0 1 462 7255 2 8 3

811 1 1 0 1 689 6728 2 5 2

823 1 2 1 10 834 5694 2 6 1

825 1 1 0 1 894 5913 2 13 2

859 1 1 0 1 184 9570 2 4 1

885 1 1 0 1 777 6665 2 4 1

892 1 1 0 1 472 7779 2 8 3

995 1 1 0 1 668 6768 2 5 1

1016 1 2 1 10 825 6481 2 9 3

1042 1 2 0 2 1378 4428 3 2 1

1053 1 1 0 1 383 8009 2 10 2

1216 1 1 0 1 226 9262 2 1 1

1282 1 1 0 1 339 8416 2 1 1

1295 1 1 0 1 1032 5444 4 1 1

1383 1 2 0 2 1108 5691 2 7 2

1423 1 2 1 10 287 7350 2 4 1

1441 1 1 0 1 701 6647 2 3 1

1564 1 1 0 1 720 6596 2 4 1

1629 1 1 0 1 596 6898 4 1 1

1654 1 2 1 10 864 5657 2 3 1

1678 1 1 0 1 794 6633 2 3 1

1711 1 2 1 10 1099 5372 2 3 1

1740 1 1 0 1 783 6516 2 9 2

1754 1 2 1 10 862 7236 2 1 1

1759 1 1 0 1 680 6684 2 5 3

1821 1 1 0 1 1033 5873 2 1 1

1840 1 2 0 2 1195 5600 2 2 1

1855 1 1 0 1 690 6824 5 1 1

1863 1 1 0 1 784 6339 2 2 2

1929 1 2 0 2 1215 5579 3 2 1

1963 1 1 0 1 637 6985 2 2 2

2009 1 1 0 1 739 6734 2 12 2

2029 1 1 0 1 779 6362 2 3 3

2053 1 2 0 2 1928 4318 3 3 1

2087 1 2 1 10 987 6330 2 5 2

2169 1 1 0 1 1045 5396 4 1 2

2191 1 2 1 10 1051 5540 2 5 2

mall), tank size = 32 gal

medium), tank size = 32 gal (69.2%), 50 gal (30.8%)
2199

1101 688 672921

1

2209121 10 884 73315 10

1

22161101 946 561023

1

2226121 10 1276 495021

1

22731101 1049 585325

2

23511202 1525 465623

1

2405121 10 795 663221

2

25481202 1242 516225

2

26341202 949 59102 10

3

26771202 1072 572831

1

26971101 359 813822

1

27251101 677 700721

1

27341202 1076 536526

3

27621101 217 932622

2

2765121 10 829 647522

1

28351202 1095 570533

1

28681101 284 882621

2

29161101 230 922923

1

3014121 10 983 579024

2

30781101 800 635921

1

3110121 10 1062 550028

4

31111101 825 608424

2

31361202 1045 553025

2

32091202 916 599728

2

3263121 10 917 559322

2

3300121 10 1362 482543

1

3347121 10 1049 554824

1

3370121 10 1033 560727

2

34531101 955 633823

1

34661101 479 776027

3

35161101 269 894325

1

36421202 1034 576831

1

38481202 1371 487823

1

38501101 235 919024

2

38531101 254 905123

1

38961101 523 707322

1

39231101 514 801421

1

39521101 876 588521

1

39631101 238 916925

1

41001202 858 607321

1

41071101 292 877124

2

41091101 820 617721

1

41691101 803 626124

4

42961101 265 897229

2





































Variables to Determine Hot Water Draw

per age1 age2 age4 age3 athome

FUELH2O WHEATOTH WHEATSIZ WHEATAG

E

NHSLDMEM PreSchoolC

hildren

SchoolChild

ren

Adults Seniors ATHOME

3 0 3 2 4 0 0 4 0 1

3 0 3 4 5 0 0 5 0 1

3 0 2 5 2 0 0 1 1 1

3 0 2 4 3 0 1 2 0 0

3 0 3 3 5 0 0 5 0 1

3 0 1 3 3 1 0 2 0 0

3 0 3 5 2 0 0 1 1 1

3 0 1 5 4 0 1 3 0 0

3 0 2 4 4 1 0 3 0 1

3 0 2 4 5 0 2 3 0 0

3 0 2 1 4 0 2 2 0 0

3 0 3 4 2 0 0 2 0 0

3 0 2 5 3 0 0 3 0 0

3 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 0 0

3 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 1

3 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 1

3 0 2 4 2 0 0 2 0 1

3 0 1 3 3 0 1 2 0 0

3 0 3 2 4 0 1 2 1 1

3 0 2 4 4 0 0 4 0 0

3 0 2 2 4 0 0 4 0 0

3 0 2 6 3 0 0 3 0 0

3 0 3 1 3 0 0 3 0 0

3 0 2 6 3 0 0 3 0 1

3 0 2 5 2 0 0 0 2 1

3 0 2 4 4 1 1 2 0 1

3 0 2 6 1 0 0 1 0 0

3 0 3 3 5 0 2 3 0 1

3 0 2 5 2 0 0 1 1 0

3 0 1 2 6 1 3 2 0 1

3 0 2 1 3 0 1 2 0 0

3 0 3 2 4 0 0 4 0 0

3 0 2 3 1 0 0 1 0 0

3 0 3 3 2 0 0 0 2 1

3 0 3 1 2 0 0 2 0 0

3 0 2 2 3 0 0 3 0 0

3 0 1 5 2 0 0 0 2 1

3 0 1 6 2 0 0 2 0 0

3 0 2 4 2 0 0 1 1 1

3 0 1 5 3 1 0 2 0 0

3 0 2 2 3 0 0 1 2 1

3 0 2 1 4 0 1 3 0 0

3 0 3 5 3 1 0 2 0 0

3 0 2 4 3 0 0 3 0 1

3 0 2 6 1 0 0 0 1 1

3 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 1 1

3 0 3 6 2 0 0 2 0 0

3 0 3 1 2 0 0 0 2 1

3 0 2 4 1 0 0 0 1 1

3 0 2 3 2 0 0 2 0 0

3 0 2 1 2 0 0 2 0 0

3 0 1 4 3 0 0 3 0 0

3 0 1 5 4 2 0 2 0 0

3 0 2 3 6 1 1 4 0 1

3 0 3 4 3 1 0 2 0 1

3 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 1 1
3

026400310

3026410300

3025200200

3013200021

3034402200

3015200111

3031411201

3035400401

3022530201

3025300301

3023300300

3024200021

3026300121

3021200200

3011100100

3023401300

3013420201

3022200200

3026601501

3022530200

3034502300

3024200200

3012400400

3021400400

3024300121

3015300211

3024100100

3014402201

3021200201

3022300301

3033401300

3022100100

3022401301

3033411200

3023100011

3034100100

3035100011

3034200201

3014200201

3025100100

3024401301

3035302101

3033300031

3023200111





































e Hot Water Draw Variables to identify WH Location

no_dw no_cw no_pay

DISHWASH CWASHER FOPAY CELLAR BASEHEAT BASECOOL PRKGPLC1 CRAWL WELLPUMP

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0

1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0

0 1 1 9 9 9 0 9 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0

0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1

1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1

1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 1

1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1

0 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0

1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1

0 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 1

0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0

1 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 1

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0

0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1

1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0

1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1

0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1

1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1

1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1

0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1

1 1 1 1 0 0 9 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0

1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1

1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0

0 0 1 1 0 0 9 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0

0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1

1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1

1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0

0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1

0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0

0 0 2 9 9 9 9 9 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0

1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1

1 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 0

0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0

1 1 1 0 9 9 1 0 1

1 1 1 1 0 0 9 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
1

11

110000

002

999990

111

099000

001

120000

111

120110

103

122100

111

100001

111

099100

111

100101

011

100100

111

120011

111

100101

111

099100

111

100000

011

099011

011

100000

111

100110

111

110000

111

100100

111

100000

111

100100

111

100100

111

100100

111

100101

111

120110

011

100900

111

100000

111

121100

111

120110

111

100101

011

120001

011

100000

011

100000

011

100000

011

100000

111

100000

111

100000

001

100011

011

100001

001

100001

111

120000

111

100010

111

100100

111

110101





































Variables to determine temperatures

WeatherLo

cationCode TEMPHOME TEMPGONE TEMPNITE TEMPHOMEAC

TEMPGON

EAC

TEMPNITE

AC

CXY 68 68 68 99 99 99

ABE 68 68 68 66 66 66

AVL 70 70 65 99 99 99

PVD 65 60 60 99 99 99

ORH 68 68 68 99 99 99

CAR 70 68 68 99 99 99

IPT 70 70 70 99 99 99

BDL 75 60 60 99 99 99

ORH 70 70 70 99 99 99

BDL 62 60 60 99 99 99

PWM 68 60 64 99 99 99

PVD 68 68 65 99 99 99

ORH 60 60 58 99 99 99

ABE 65 65 65 99 99 99

BDL 68 68 68 99 99 99

UCA 68 68 66 73 73 95

BOS 66 66 66 99 99 99

ART 68 50 62 99 99 99

ORH 68 68 68 68 68 68

PWM 68 62 60 99 99 99

ORH 68 62 68 99 99 99

ALB 70 70 70 99 99 99

BOS 60 60 60 70 70 70

CAR 68 64 64 99 99 99

ORH 68 68 68 99 99 99

CON 65 60 65 99 99 99

ORH 65 65 65 99 99 99

ALB 70 70 70 99 99 99

PHL 68 65 65 99 99 99

CON 68 55 68 99 99 99

CAR 65 65 65 99 99 99

HUL 68 62 62 99 99 99

BDR 70 60 70 99 99 99

ABE 70 70 68 70 65 70

ART 65 65 65 99 99 99

ORH 65 62 62 99 99 99

ORH 68 68 64 99 99 99

ORH 67 67 67 99 99 99

ALB 70 70 67 99 99 99

ORH 70 60 60 99 99 99

LGA 70 70 70 99 99 99

ORH 68 60 60 99 99 99

UCA 58 52 52 99 99 99

ORH 70 70 65 99 99 99

PVD 70 70 70 99 99 99

ABE 70 70 60 99 99 99

ORH 70 70 70 99 99 99

BDL 70 70 67 69 69 69

ABE 70 70 74 99 99 99

PWM 69 65 65 99 99 99

ORH 72 72 68 99 99 99

BDL 68 64 64 68 74 80

PHL 70 60 70 99 99 99

ALB 68 68 68 72 72 72

BDR 69 65 65 99 99 99

LGA 68 68 68 99 99 99
ORH 75 75 70 99 99 99

UCA 96 96 96 99 99 99

PVD 65 65 65 99 99 99

LGA 72 65 65 99 99 99

PVD 70 64 64 99 99 99

PHL 60 60 60 99 99 99

BUF 68 64 64 72 64 72

CXY 65 65 65 99 99 99

IPT 64 64 64 74 74 73

ABE 70 68 70 99 99 99

CON 70 60 60 99 99 99

PWM 68 68 68 99 99 99

CXY 72 72 70 75 75 75

CAR 69 62 62 99 99 99

ALB 70 70 70 99 99 99

ABE 68 68 70 99 99 99

HUL 65 65 65 99 99 99

CAR 65 55 55 99 99 99

ALB 65 60 68 99 99 99

BDL 70 65 68 99 99 99

LGA 66 62 62 74 74 74

BOS 64 62 62 99 99 99

ABE 70 65 68 71 74 71

IPT 68 68 68 78 78 78

ALB 69 69 69 99 99 99

LGA 74 65 75 99 99 99

LGA 68 68 68 99 99 99

ALB 68 68 63 68 72 70

BDL 65 60 60 99 99 99

CON 70 66 65 99 99 99

HUL 70 70 70 99 99 99

ABE 70 70 70 99 99 99

EWR 74 70 74 99 99 99

CAR 68 60 68 99 99 99

HUL 70 70 68 99 99 99

PWM 70 65 68 99 99 99

BTV 68 68 68 99 99 99

BOS 55 55 55 99 99 99

CAR 70 70 70 99 99 99

IPT 62 62 62 99 99 99

HUL 68 68 68 99 99 99

BDL 68 64 64 99 99 99

BDL 70 70 70 99 99 99

HUL 75 70 63 99 99 99





































Monthly Mean Temperature by Weather Location

Weather Loc Division + HDD-65 CDD-65 Annual Mean 

Code State City Lrg States (2005) (2005) Temp Jan

BDL CT HARTFORD 1 6219 1003 50.2 25.7

BDR CT BRIDGEPORT 1 5361 1046 52.1 29.9

BOS MA BOSTON 1 5902 888 51.6 29.3

ORH MA WORCESTER 1 6670 714 47.2 23.6

CAR ME CARIBOU 1 9166 236 39.2 9.5

HUL ME HOULTON 1 8989 247 39.9 10.9

PWM ME PORTLAND 1 7218 471 45.7 21.7

CON NH CONCORD 1 7385 602 45.9 20.1

PVD RI PROVIDENCE 1 5824 1010 51.1 28.7

BTV VT BURLINGTON 1 7425 729 45.2 18.0

EWR NJ NEWARK 2 4949 1526 54.5 31.3

ABE PA ALLENTOWN 2 5704 1085 50.6 27.1

CXY PA HARRISBURG 2 5187 1243 53.3 30.3

IPT PA WILLIAMSPORT 2 6038 965 49.8 25.5

PHL PA PHILADELPHIA 2 4735 1530 55.3 32.3

AVL NC ASHEVILLE 5 4083 891 54.8 35.8

ALB NY ALBANY 10 6607 913 47.5 22.2

ART NY WATERTOWN 10 7565 576 45.7 19.5

BUF NY BUFFALO 10 6644 880 47.9 24.5

LGA NY NEW YORK 10 4707 1597 55.1 32.6

UCA NY UTICA 10 7195 709 46.6 21.1
Monthly Mean Temperature Data

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

28.8 38.0 48.9 59.9 68.5 73.7 71.6 63.2 51.9 41.8

31.9 39.5 48.9 59.0 68.0 74.0 73.1 65.7 54.7 45.1

31.5 38.9 48.3 58.5 68.0 73.9 72.3 64.7 54.1 44.9

26.0 34.3 45.0 56.3 64.7 70.1 68.3 60.2 49.6 39.6

13.0 24.6 38.1 51.6 60.8 65.6 63.4 53.8 42.8 30.6

14.1 25.9 38.6 51.6 61.0 66.1 63.9 54.6 43.0 31.4

24.8 33.7 43.7 53.8 62.9 68.7 67.2 58.7 47.7 38.3

23.3 33.3 44.6 56.0 64.9 70.0 68.2 59.4 47.8 37.6

30.9 38.8 48.6 58.7 67.6 73.3 71.9 64.0 53.0 43.8

19.9 30.7 43.5 56.5 65.6 70.6 68.2 59.4 47.7 37.1

33.8 42.2 52.3 62.7 71.9 77.2 75.5 67.8 56.4 46.4

29.9 38.8 49.0 59.6 68.5 73.3 71.2 63.4 52.0 42.0

32.8 41.7 52.1 62.0 70.7 75.9 74.0 66.2 54.5 44.3

28.5 38.0 49.0 59.5 67.8 72.4 70.9 63.1 51.3 40.8

34.8 43.2 53.1 63.5 72.3 77.6 76.3 68.8 57.2 47.1

39.0 46.3 54.1 62.0 69.2 73.0 71.8 65.7 55.2 46.4

25.0 35.0 46.6 58.1 66.3 71.1 69.0 60.6 49.3 39.2

21.5 31.2 43.7 56.4 65.0 70.1 68.2 60.2 48.3 38.1

25.9 34.3 45.3 57.0 65.8 70.8 69.1 61.5 50.7 40.2

34.8 42.3 52.2 62.4 71.5 77.1 75.9 68.6 57.7 47.6

23.2 33.3 45.0 57.0 65.9 70.3 68.4 60.2 49.0 38.2
Dec

30.8

35.1

34.8

28.9

16.4

17.4

27.6

25.9

33.8

24.8

36.4

32.0

34.8

30.7

37.4

39.0

28.0

26.1

29.8

37.9

27.3
Installation Cost for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Import Parameters

from: RECS WH

retrofit or new? (1 = retrofit, 2 = new) 1

Export Parameters Installation Costs for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Installation Cost for 50 gal WH Installation Description Retrofit New

Cost (2009$) (2009 $) (2009 $)

0 0.53 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $778.85 0 0.53 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $778.85 $778.85

1 0.54 - Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $778.85 1 0.54 - Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $778.85 $778.85

2 0.56 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $778.85 2 0.56 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) $778.85 $778.85

3 0.58 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $778.85 3 0.58 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $778.85 $778.85

4 0.60 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $778.85 4 0.60 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $778.85 $778.85

5 0.62 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $778.85 5 0.62 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $778.85 $778.85

6 0.66 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $778.85 6 0.66 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $778.85 $778.85

7 0.68 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $778.85 7 0.68 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $778.85 $778.85

Installation Cost Components Install Cost 

Distribution Min (%-)

Baseline $778.85 -26%

Source: Based on 1993 TSD installation Costs (see App. 8-A)

1993 TSD Data
Max (%+) Avg (1998$) Avg (2009$) Min Max Beta Alpha Likeliest value

57% $491.00 $646.24 $478.22 $1,014.60 1.43 185.70 560.75

1993 TSD Data Distribution Parameters
Maintenance & Repair Cost for Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Import Parameters

from: RECS WH

Division + 4 lrg st 2

Export Parameters Intermediate Calculations

Maint. & Repair Cost for 50 gal WH Maintenance Costs

Maintenance Repair Repair Year Average Yealry Maintenance Contract (2009$)

(2009$) (2009$) yr Flushing Tank

0 0.53 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) $152.81 $0.00 0

1 0.54 - Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) $152.81 $0.00 0 Repair Costs

2 0.56 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass)$152.81 $0.00 0 No repair cost (assumed part of Maint. Contract)

3 0.58 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) $152.81 $0.00 0 Note: Maintenance cost analyses are described in TSD, App

4 0.60 - Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) $152.81 $0.00 0

5 0.62 - Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) $152.81 $0.00 0 Maintenance Cost Calculations for Flushing Water Heater

6 0.66 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle $152.81 $0.00 0

7 0.68 - Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle $152.81 $0.00 0 Trip Charge

Warranty Period (years) 1 Drain and fill tank

Total

Calculation of Fraction of Installations w/ Flushing Cost

2009 RS Means Standard Union Labor Costs (2009$)

Crew No.

1 Plum

2009 RS Means Labor Costs Markups (Standard Union)

Trade

Plumber

Div & 4 lrg states

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

National Avg.

Description

Labor Costs Location Factors
Frequency (yr) Cost (2009$) Applicable?

 Maintenance Contract (2009$) 1 $152.81

1 $138.89 0

assumed part of Maint. Contract) 0

ce cost analyses are described in TSD, App. 8-B

t Calculations for Flushing Water Heater

Crew Labor Hours Unit Material Labor SubTotal

1 Plum 0.5 Ea. $0.00 $30.84 $30.84

1 Plum 1 Ea. $0.00 $61.69 $61.69

Total Flushed Use ContractorTotal w/Cost Distribution

raction of Installations w/ Flushing Cost 10% 25% 2.5% 0

Standard Union Labor Costs (2009$) Labor Cost Choice (1=Regional; 2=Sample Weighted Avg; 3=National) 1

Laborers Cost per Labor Cost per Labor-Hour

per Crew Labor-Hour Factor Bare Costs Incl. O&P

1 Plumber 1 48.75 1.27 $61.69 $92.59

Labor Costs Markups (Standard Union)

Workers Comp.

Aver Fixed 

Overhead Overhead Profit Total

7.8% 16.3% 16.0% 10.0% 50.1%

Labor Cost Factor Sample Weight

1.18 44%

1.27 24%

1.12 0%

0.97 0%

0.73 2%

0.75 0%

0.66 0%

0.82 0%

1.06 0%

1.66 31%

1.25 0%

0.66 0%

0.72 0%

1 1.34

Bare Costs (2009$)

Description

Labor Costs Location Factors
Total

Unit Factor Labor Hours Material Labor Total

1.00 0.50 $0.00 $46.30 $46.30

1.00 1.00 $0.00 $92.59 $92.59

1.50 $0.00 $138.89 $138.89

Total Values including O&P (2009$)
Energy Prices (by Division and Large States)

Import Parameters

From RECS Household:

Div & Lrg State 2

Export Parameters

To LCC Summary: 2008 Residential Energy Prices (in 2009$)

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Elec Price ($/kWh) 2008 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.13 $0.13 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.13 $0.13 $0.12

Oil Price ($/MMBtu) 2008 $24.65 $25.01 $24.84 $24.63 $24.48 $24.31 $23.93 $23.89 $24.65 $25.28 $25.70 $25.98
2008 Residential Electricity Prices (in 2009$)

Div. & $ / kWh

Lrg State Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1 New England $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18

2 Middle Atlantic $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.13 $0.13 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.13 $0.13 $0.12

3 East North Central $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.10 $0.10

4 West North Central $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.09 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 $0.08 $0.08

5 South Altantic $0.09 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10

6 East South Central $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.10 $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.10 $0.09 $0.09

7 West South Central $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.09 $0.09

8 Mountain $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10

9 Pacific $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11

10 New York $0.17 $0.17 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.19 $0.19 $0.19 $0.19 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18

11 California $0.14 $0.13 $0.13 $0.13 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.13 $0.14 $0.14

12 Texas $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.13 $0.13 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.13 $0.12

13 Florida $0.11 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.11 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12

U.S. Avg $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.11

2008 Residential Oil Prices (in 2009$)

Div. & $ / MMBtu

Lrg State Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1 New England $24.05 $24.40 $24.23 $24.02 $23.87 $23.71 $23.34 $23.31 $24.05 $24.66 $25.07 $25.34

2 Middle Atlantic $24.65 $25.01 $24.84 $24.63 $24.48 $24.31 $23.93 $23.89 $24.65 $25.28 $25.70 $25.98

3 East North Central $22.50 $22.76 $23.07 $23.21 $23.18 $23.12 $22.97 $23.48 $24.32 $24.84 $24.80 $24.41

4 West North Central $22.43 $22.69 $23.00 $23.14 $23.11 $23.05 $22.90 $23.41 $24.24 $24.76 $24.73 $24.34

5 South Altantic $24.24 $24.50 $24.39 $24.07 $23.33 $23.03 $23.05 $23.28 $24.13 $24.78 $25.23 $25.50

6 East South Central $23.99 $24.26 $24.15 $23.83 $23.10 $22.80 $22.82 $23.05 $23.89 $24.53 $24.98 $25.24

7 West South Central $24.19 $24.46 $24.35 $24.03 $23.29 $22.99 $23.01 $23.24 $24.09 $24.74 $25.19 $25.45

8 Mountain $22.29 $22.67 $23.68 $24.09 $24.05 $23.97 $23.60 $23.64 $24.44 $24.84 $24.82 $24.25

9 Pacific $23.16 $23.56 $24.60 $25.04 $24.99 $24.90 $24.52 $24.56 $25.40 $25.81 $25.79 $25.20

10 New York $24.48 $24.84 $24.67 $24.46 $24.30 $24.14 $23.76 $23.73 $24.48 $25.10 $25.52 $25.79

11 California $23.93 $24.34 $25.42 $25.87 $25.83 $25.73 $25.34 $25.38 $26.24 $26.67 $26.65 $26.04

12 Texas $24.71 $24.99 $24.87 $24.54 $23.79 $23.48 $23.51 $23.74 $24.61 $25.27 $25.73 $26.00

13 Florida $24.35 $24.62 $24.51 $24.18 $23.44 $23.14 $23.16 $23.39 $24.25 $24.90 $25.35 $25.62

U.S. Avg $24.08 $24.42 $24.32 $24.15 $23.95 $23.74 $23.41 $23.45 $24.24 $24.85 $25.23 $25.43
Average Monthly Prices Price Factors

2008 Residential Electricity Price (in 2009$) Residential Electricity Price Factor from 1990-2008 EIA Monthly Data

Div. & $ / kWh Div. &

Lrg State Monthly Avg. Lrg State Jan Feb Mar

1 New England $0.18 1 New England 0.97 0.98 0.98

2 Middle Atlantic $0.13 2 Middle Atlantic 0.93 0.93 0.95

3 East North Central $0.10 3 East North Central 0.91 0.94 0.96

4 West North Central $0.09 4 West North Central 0.89 0.91 0.93

5 South Altantic $0.10 5 South Altantic 0.92 0.93 0.95

6 East South Central $0.09 6 East South Central 0.93 0.95 0.97

7 West South Central $0.10 7 West South Central 0.90 0.93 0.96

8 Mountain $0.10 8 Mountain 0.94 0.95 0.97

9 Pacific $0.10 9 Pacific 0.98 0.99 0.99

10 New York $0.18 10 New York 0.95 0.95 0.96

11 California $0.14 11 California 0.99 0.98 0.97

12 Texas $0.13 12 Texas 0.90 0.92 0.95

13 Florida $0.12 13 Florida 0.99 0.99 1.00

U.S. Avg $0.12 U.S. Avg 0.94 0.95 0.96

2008 Residential Oil Prices (in 2009$) Residential Oil Price Factor from 1983-2008 EIA Monthly Price Data

Div. & $ / MMBtu Div. &

Lrg State Monthly Avg. Lrg State Jan Feb Mar

1 New England $24.17 1 New England 0.99 1.01 1.00

2 Middle Atlantic $24.78 2 Middle Atlantic 0.99 1.01 1.00

3 East North Central $23.56 3 East North Central 0.96 0.97 0.98

4 West North Central $23.48 4 West North Central 0.96 0.97 0.98

5 South Altantic $24.13 5 South Altantic 1.00 1.02 1.01

6 East South Central $23.89 6 East South Central 1.00 1.02 1.01

7 West South Central $24.09 7 West South Central 1.00 1.02 1.01

8 Mountain $23.86 8 Mountain 0.93 0.95 0.99

9 Pacific $24.79 9 Pacific 0.93 0.95 0.99

10 New York $24.61 10 New York 0.99 1.01 1.00

11 California $25.62 11 California 0.93 0.95 0.99

12 Texas $24.60 12 Texas 1.00 1.02 1.01

13 Florida $24.24 13 Florida 1.00 1.02 1.01

U.S. Avg $24.27 U.S. Avg 0.99 1.01 1.00
1990-2008 EIA Monthly Data

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0.98 1.00 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.01

0.97 1.00 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.06 1.00 0.98 0.96

1.00 1.03 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.04 0.98 0.94

0.97 1.04 1.11 1.11 1.10 1.06 1.00 0.96 0.92

0.98 1.02 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.05 1.02 0.98 0.94

1.01 1.03 1.03 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.02 0.98

0.99 1.02 1.06 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.04 0.99 0.94

0.99 1.03 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.04 0.99 0.97

0.98 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.02

0.97 1.00 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.01 1.00 0.98

0.97 1.00 1.02 1.05 1.04 1.00 0.96 1.00 1.01

0.98 1.02 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.05 0.98 0.95

1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.00

0.98 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.02 0.99 0.97

08 EIA Monthly Price Data

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.05

0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.05

0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.04

0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.04

1.00 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.06

1.00 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.06

1.00 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.06

1.01 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.02

1.01 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.02

0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.05

1.01 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.02

1.00 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.06

1.00 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.06

0.99 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.05
Energy Price Trends (based on AEO 2010 Early Release)

Import Parameters AEO 2010 Residential Energy Price Projection for Electricity and Fuel Oil

from: User Options (GUI) 1 Reference Case

Fuel Price Projection Index 1 2 High Growth Scenario

Census Division 2 3 Low Growth Scenario

i.e. AEO 2010 - Reference Case (Early Release)

Export Parameters Electricity Price Fuel Oil Price

to: Summary Trend relative to 2008 (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in cent / kWh) (in 2008$ / MMBtu)

Elec Distillate Ref. High Low Ref. High Low Ref. High Low Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4

Trend Relative to 2008 2008 2007 41.80 41.80 41.80 14.26 14.26 14.26 20.47 20.47 20.47 2007 50.04 41.80 29.18 24.89

2008 1.000 1.00 2008 43.58 43.58 43.58 14.87 14.87 14.87 24.75 24.75 24.75 2008 51.88 43.58 30.44 25.41

2009 0.948 0.73 2009 41.33 41.40 41.33 14.10 14.12 14.10 18.19 18.19 18.19 2009 48.00 41.33 28.75 27.02

2010 0.910 0.73 2010 39.68 39.77 39.57 13.54 13.57 13.50 18.04 18.04 18.04 2010 46.62 39.68 28.17 26.82

2011 0.846 0.73 2011 36.86 37.09 36.50 12.58 12.65 12.45 18.18 17.90 17.76 2011 43.23 36.86 26.49 25.96

2012 0.922 0.78 2012 40.20 40.64 39.27 13.72 13.87 13.40 19.27 18.91 18.67 2012 46.39 40.20 27.61 26.27

2013 0.940 0.82 2013 40.97 41.83 39.67 13.98 14.27 13.53 20.29 19.94 19.51 2013 47.32 40.97 27.91 26.49

2014 0.927 0.85 2014 40.40 41.24 38.92 13.78 14.07 13.28 21.02 20.80 20.15 2014 47.61 40.40 28.14 26.73

2015 0.927 0.87 2015 40.41 41.35 38.42 13.79 14.11 13.11 21.54 21.80 21.15 2015 47.29 40.41 28.28 26.58

2016 0.944 0.91 2016 41.15 42.03 39.12 14.04 14.34 13.35 22.50 22.80 21.91 2016 47.05 41.15 28.67 26.58

2017 0.958 0.94 2017 41.74 43.08 40.21 14.24 14.70 13.72 23.15 23.42 22.46 2017 46.97 41.74 28.69 26.62

2018 0.964 0.96 2018 42.01 43.60 40.34 14.33 14.88 13.76 23.82 24.11 23.13 2018 46.85 42.01 28.67 26.54

2019 0.961 0.98 2019 41.90 43.80 40.15 14.30 14.95 13.70 24.25 24.52 23.59 2019 46.78 41.90 28.67 26.44

2020 0.971 0.99 2020 42.32 44.17 40.26 14.44 15.07 13.74 24.61 24.90 23.77 2020 46.84 42.32 28.82 26.51

2021 0.980 1.00 2021 42.72 44.54 40.96 14.58 15.20 13.97 24.75 25.05 23.60 2021 46.84 42.72 29.05 26.55

2022 0.983 1.01 2022 42.85 44.65 41.28 14.62 15.23 14.08 24.95 25.53 24.07 2022 46.99 42.85 29.15 26.58

2023 0.992 1.02 2023 43.24 44.90 41.63 14.75 15.32 14.20 25.26 25.96 24.30 2023 47.15 43.24 29.38 26.48

2024 0.994 1.03 2024 43.33 45.38 41.15 14.78 15.48 14.04 25.45 26.33 24.39 2024 47.03 43.33 29.66 26.41

2025 0.989 1.04 2025 43.12 45.13 40.57 14.71 15.40 13.84 25.74 26.55 24.00 2025 46.73 43.12 29.56 26.22

2026 0.994 1.05 2026 43.33 44.91 40.72 14.78 15.32 13.89 26.01 27.02 24.96 2026 46.81 43.33 29.56 26.08

2027 1.000 1.06 2027 43.59 44.81 41.18 14.87 15.29 14.05 26.22 27.46 25.28 2027 47.16 43.59 29.66 26.01

2028 1.008 1.07 2028 43.95 45.02 41.34 14.99 15.36 14.11 26.53 27.70 25.40 2028 47.45 43.95 29.77 25.96

2029 1.027 1.09 2029 44.77 45.80 42.07 15.27 15.63 14.35 26.94 27.82 25.48 2029 47.89 44.77 30.02 26.01

2030 1.032 1.09 2030 44.97 45.80 42.45 15.34 15.63 14.48 27.09 28.32 25.64 2030 48.42 44.97 30.28 26.16

2031 1.044 1.11 2031 45.48 46.43 42.84 15.52 15.84 14.62 27.53 28.61 26.04 2031 48.93 45.48 30.39 26.32

2032 1.053 1.13 2032 45.91 46.81 43.29 15.66 15.97 14.77 27.92 29.10 26.42 2032 49.25 45.91 30.58 26.54

2033 1.058 1.14 2033 46.12 47.06 43.47 15.74 16.06 14.83 28.29 29.43 26.76 2033 49.44 46.12 30.67 26.46

2034 1.067 1.16 2034 46.49 47.41 43.82 15.86 16.18 14.95 28.71 29.90 27.17 2034 49.57 46.49 31.01 26.53

2035 1.070 1.18 2035 46.65 47.59 43.97 15.92 16.24 15.00 29.13 30.32 27.56 2035 49.91 46.65 31.14 26.85

2036 1.079 1.19 Note: High/Low calculated based on AEO 2009 Ref/High and Ref/Low ratios.

2037 1.087 1.20

2038 1.096 1.22 For energy price trend after 2035:

2039 1.105 1.23 Electricity - the rate of change from 2025 to 2035 is used

2040 1.113 1.24 Distillate - the rate of change from 2020 to 2035 is used Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4

2041 1.122 1.26 2007 50.04 41.80 29.18 24.89

2042 1.131 1.27 2008 51.88 43.58 30.44 25.41

2043 1.140 1.28 2009 48.02 41.40 28.78 27.02

2044 1.149 1.30 2010 46.84 39.77 28.24 27.45

2045 1.158 1.31 2011 43.43 37.09 26.59 26.80

2046 1.167 1.33 2012 46.76 40.64 27.96 27.06

2047 1.176 1.34 2013 47.87 41.83 28.49 27.32

2048 1.186 1.36 2014 48.36 41.24 28.94 27.58

2049 1.195 1.37 2015 48.38 41.35 29.35 27.54

2050 1.205 1.39 2016 48.28 42.03 29.91 27.56

2051 1.214 1.40 2017 48.34 43.08 29.96 27.61

2052 1.224 1.42 2018 48.39 43.60 30.13 27.66

2053 1.233 1.43 2019 48.22 43.80 30.49 27.66

2054 1.243 1.45 2020 48.01 44.17 30.74 27.80

2055 1.253 1.46 2021 47.81 44.54 30.73 27.97

2056 1.263 1.48 2022 48.24 44.65 30.58 28.01

2057 1.273 1.49 2023 48.57 44.90 30.65 27.86

2058 1.283 1.51 2024 48.90 45.38 31.00 27.94

2059 1.293 1.53 2025 48.62 45.13 31.10 27.84

Electricity Regional Price Forecasts

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)

Updated Regional Residential Electricity Price Forecasts - 

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)

2526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Price (AEO2010)

Reference

High

Low 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Oil Price (AEO2010)

Reference

High

Low

1.1

1.2

Electricity Price Trend

#REF! 1.4

1.6

1.8 Oil Price Trend

#REF!
2060 1.303 1.54 2026 48.25 44.91 31.09 27.70

2061 1.314 1.56 2027 48.58 44.81 31.25 27.72

2062 1.324 1.58 2028 48.91 45.02 31.37 27.74

2063 1.334 1.60 2029 49.04 45.80 31.60 27.84

2064 1.345 1.61 2030 49.27 45.80 31.68 27.87

2065 1.356 1.63 2031 49.94 46.43 31.90 28.10

2066 1.366 1.65 2032 50.20 46.81 32.04 28.30

2067 1.377 1.67 2033 50.43 47.06 32.17 28.23

2068 1.388 1.68 2034 50.54 47.41 32.51 28.30

2069 1.399 1.70 2035 50.90 47.59 32.65 28.65

2070 1.410 1.72

2071 1.421 1.74

2072 1.433 1.76

2073 1.444 1.78

2074 1.455 1.80 Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4

2075 1.467 1.82 2007 50.04 41.80 29.18 24.89

2076 1.478 1.84 2008 51.88 43.58 30.44 25.41

2077 1.490 1.86 2009 47.98 41.33 28.74 27.02

2078 1.502 1.88 2010 46.49 39.57 28.08 26.82

2079 1.514 1.90 2011 42.92 36.50 26.23 25.81

2080 1.526 1.92 2012 45.76 39.27 27.14 26.03

2081 1.538 1.94 2013 46.49 39.67 27.19 26.13

2082 1.550 1.96 2014 46.74 38.92 27.16 26.20

2083 1.562 1.98 2015 46.41 38.42 26.92 26.01

2084 1.575 2.00 2016 46.00 39.12 27.70 25.97

2017 45.82 40.21 27.76 25.98

2018 45.50 40.34 27.57 25.76

2019 45.21 40.15 27.36 25.58

2020 45.12 40.26 27.48 25.54

2021 45.12 40.96 27.75 25.53

2022 45.65 41.28 27.78 25.55

2023 45.95 41.63 27.90 25.43

2024 45.60 41.15 28.03 25.30

2025 44.97 40.57 27.77 25.01

2026 45.03 40.72 27.88 24.88

2027 45.32 41.18 28.19 24.88

2028 45.61 41.34 28.07 24.70

2029 46.30 42.07 28.05 24.63

2030 46.81 42.45 28.18 24.65

2031 47.30 42.84 28.34 24.86

2032 47.61 43.29 28.49 25.03

2033 47.80 43.47 28.59 24.97

2034 47.92 43.82 28.90 25.03

2035 48.25 43.97 29.02 25.34

Updated Regional Residential Electricity Price Forecasts - 

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)

0.8

0.9

1.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Sample weights 44% 55% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat.

30.05 25.04 33.42 27.89 35.43 31.82 2007 20.08 20.47 19.60 19.36 20.33 21.67 19.16 20.52 22.57 20.30

31.26 27.30 37.81 28.82 33.84 33.29 2008 24.40 24.75 24.13 24.48 23.56 24.40 24.10 24.48 24.50 24.47

32.28 27.88 33.35 28.65 32.18 32.33 2009 17.94 18.19 17.74 17.99 17.32 17.94 17.70 17.99 18.01 17.98

29.39 26.97 31.56 27.74 32.56 30.94 2010 17.62 18.04 15.95 15.50 16.75 15.66 16.93 15.97 16.71 17.57

29.21 26.23 29.33 28.49 32.43 29.90 2011 17.76 18.18 16.12 15.67 16.89 15.81 17.06 16.25 16.98 17.72

30.09 26.57 31.03 28.84 32.98 31.08 2012 18.86 19.27 17.20 16.75 17.97 16.90 18.14 17.32 19.10 18.84

30.68 26.59 31.18 28.96 33.50 31.47 2013 19.88 20.29 18.28 17.82 18.97 17.98 19.14 18.35 20.08 19.86

30.61 26.61 31.23 28.94 33.82 31.49 2014 20.59 21.02 18.93 18.47 19.66 18.65 19.84 19.04 20.83 20.58

30.50 26.40 31.39 28.92 33.57 31.43 2015 21.10 21.54 19.45 18.98 20.16 19.19 20.33 19.54 20.89 21.08

30.65 26.53 31.91 28.97 33.39 31.64 2016 22.03 22.50 20.39 19.92 21.08 20.14 21.25 20.45 20.96 22.00

30.85 26.80 32.16 29.06 33.22 31.80 2017 22.66 23.15 21.03 20.56 21.70 20.78 21.87 21.06 22.06 22.66

30.89 26.85 31.99 29.13 32.97 31.78 2018 23.32 23.82 21.67 21.20 22.36 21.43 22.52 21.75 22.58 23.32

30.69 26.67 31.98 29.24 32.77 31.68 2019 23.75 24.25 22.10 21.62 22.78 21.86 22.95 22.19 22.85 23.74

30.79 26.80 32.18 29.67 32.82 31.84 2020 24.11 24.61 22.44 21.97 23.14 22.21 23.30 22.50 22.91 24.10

30.91 26.86 32.29 30.07 32.88 32.01 2021 24.25 24.75 22.58 22.11 23.28 22.35 23.44 22.67 23.20 24.24

30.89 26.78 32.49 30.39 32.90 32.08 2022 24.45 24.95 22.78 22.30 23.48 22.55 23.63 22.88 23.20 24.44

30.95 26.74 32.67 30.62 32.89 32.20 2023 24.76 25.26 23.09 22.61 23.79 22.86 23.94 23.14 23.56 24.76

31.07 26.77 33.00 30.53 32.65 32.28 2024 24.95 25.45 23.27 22.80 23.97 23.04 24.13 23.36 23.76 24.94

31.05 26.73 33.21 30.76 32.58 32.26 2025 25.24 25.74 23.55 23.08 24.26 23.33 24.41 23.65 23.93 25.23

31.13 26.76 33.52 31.26 32.82 32.40 2026 25.51 26.01 23.82 23.34 24.53 23.60 24.68 23.88 24.07 25.50

31.26 26.78 33.84 31.77 32.95 32.57 2027 25.72 26.22 24.02 23.55 24.74 23.81 24.89 24.12 24.59 25.72

31.33 26.83 34.21 32.14 33.01 32.73 2028 26.04 26.53 24.34 23.86 25.06 24.12 25.20 24.44 24.89 26.04

31.71 27.08 34.93 32.65 33.18 33.13 2029 26.44 26.94 24.73 24.26 25.46 24.52 25.60 24.83 25.24 26.44

31.99 27.28 35.59 33.13 33.39 33.46 2030 26.60 27.09 24.88 24.41 25.61 24.68 25.76 24.98 25.68 26.61

32.31 27.49 36.26 33.67 33.64 33.81 2031 27.04 27.53 25.31 24.84 26.05 25.11 26.19 25.41 26.18 27.05

32.58 27.58 36.86 34.11 33.81 34.11 2032 27.43 27.92 25.70 25.22 26.44 25.50 26.58 25.80 26.65 27.45

32.67 27.66 37.24 34.44 33.90 34.26 2033 27.83 28.29 26.06 25.58 26.83 25.86 26.96 26.10 26.55 27.82

32.86 27.86 37.54 34.84 34.04 34.49 2034 28.24 28.71 26.48 26.00 27.24 26.29 27.37 26.51 26.94 28.24

33.08 27.93 37.87 35.19 34.18 34.71 2035 28.65 29.13 26.88 26.40 27.64 26.70 27.77 26.98 27.64 28.66

Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat.

30.05 25.04 33.42 27.89 35.43 31.82 2007 20.08 20.47 19.60 19.36 20.33 21.67 19.16 20.52 22.57 20.30

31.26 27.30 37.81 28.82 33.84 33.29 2008 24.40 24.75 24.13 24.48 23.56 24.40 24.10 24.48 24.50 24.47

32.29 27.89 33.34 28.65 32.18 32.35 2009 17.94 18.19 17.74 17.99 17.32 17.94 17.70 17.99 18.01 17.98

29.43 26.96 31.58 27.84 32.67 31.04 2010 17.62 18.04 15.95 15.50 16.75 15.66 16.93 15.97 16.71 17.57

29.30 26.27 29.40 28.70 32.67 30.08 2011 17.45 17.90 15.85 15.39 16.58 15.54 16.75 15.91 16.80 17.43

30.31 26.77 31.42 29.15 33.37 31.43 2012 18.52 18.91 16.85 16.39 17.63 16.54 17.81 16.97 18.97 18.50

31.05 26.93 31.66 29.57 34.09 32.00 2013 19.53 19.94 17.92 17.46 18.62 17.62 18.80 17.99 19.63 19.51

31.11 27.10 31.74 29.66 34.59 32.13 2014 20.40 20.80 18.75 18.29 19.48 18.46 19.65 18.87 20.63 20.38

31.23 27.12 32.24 29.88 34.54 32.30 2015 21.39 21.80 19.74 19.27 20.46 19.48 20.63 19.85 21.10 21.36

31.58 27.45 32.78 30.30 34.51 32.66 2016 22.39 22.80 20.74 20.27 21.43 20.51 21.60 20.80 21.49 22.34

31.93 27.85 33.31 30.37 34.48 32.98 2017 22.99 23.42 21.35 20.88 22.03 21.10 22.20 21.42 22.72 22.97

32.07 28.06 33.22 30.53 34.27 33.09 2018 23.66 24.11 22.01 21.54 22.70 21.77 22.86 22.10 23.35 23.65

32.21 28.13 33.26 30.58 34.10 33.18 2019 24.06 24.52 22.41 21.94 23.10 22.17 23.25 22.55 23.31 24.04

32.57 28.43 33.51 31.24 34.22 33.46 2020 24.45 24.90 22.78 22.31 23.48 22.55 23.63 22.74 23.50 24.42

32.62 28.48 33.63 31.62 34.18 33.57 2021 24.60 25.05 22.93 22.46 23.63 22.70 23.78 23.02 23.45 24.57

32.54 28.45 33.92 31.93 34.24 33.62 2022 25.04 25.53 23.36 22.88 24.06 23.13 24.21 23.47 23.45 25.02

32.52 28.35 34.12 32.29 34.51 33.72 2023 25.47 25.96 23.78 23.31 24.49 23.55 24.64 23.84 23.94 25.45

32.78 28.44 34.83 32.32 34.34 33.99 2024 25.84 26.33 24.15 23.67 24.86 23.92 25.00 24.19 24.03 25.81

32.90 28.55 35.46 32.47 34.19 34.10 2025 26.06 26.55 24.36 23.89 25.08 24.15 25.22 24.37 24.37 26.04

Electricity Regional Price Forecasts

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)

Oil Regional Price Forecasts

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)

Updated Regional Residential Electricity Price Forecasts - High Growth Scenario

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)

Updated Regional Residential Fuel Oil Price Forecasts - High Growth Scenario

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)
32.95 28.55 35.80 33.12 34.51 34.20 2026 26.53 27.02 24.82 24.35 25.55 24.61 25.69 24.87 24.79 26.51

33.03 28.54 36.03 33.47 34.55 34.30 2027 26.97 27.46 25.25 24.78 25.98 25.04 26.12 25.37 25.37 26.95

33.00 28.54 36.20 33.79 34.59 34.39 2028 27.21 27.70 25.48 25.01 26.22 25.28 26.35 25.55 25.59 27.19

33.35 28.79 36.66 34.34 34.76 34.73 2029 27.43 27.82 25.61 25.13 26.44 25.41 26.57 25.73 25.73 27.37

33.66 29.03 37.11 34.67 34.90 34.96 2030 27.93 28.32 26.04 25.56 26.92 25.85 27.05 25.98 26.53 27.87

34.00 29.24 37.93 35.32 35.19 35.39 2031 28.22 28.61 26.35 25.87 27.21 26.16 27.34 26.38 26.87 28.16

34.28 29.34 38.49 35.74 35.35 35.67 2032 28.71 29.10 26.83 26.35 27.71 26.64 27.83 26.81 27.44 28.66

34.37 29.42 38.93 36.11 35.45 35.84 2033 29.08 29.43 27.16 26.68 28.07 26.98 28.19 27.11 27.29 29.00

34.57 29.64 39.22 36.52 35.60 36.08 2034 29.53 29.90 27.62 27.14 28.52 27.45 28.64 27.54 27.71 29.46

34.80 29.71 39.57 36.89 35.75 36.31 2035 29.95 30.32 28.03 27.55 28.94 27.86 29.05 28.02 28.43 29.89

Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat.

30.05 25.04 33.42 27.89 35.43 31.82 2007 20.08 20.47 19.60 19.36 20.33 21.67 19.16 20.52 22.57 20.30

31.26 27.30 37.81 28.82 33.84 33.29 2008 24.40 24.75 24.13 24.48 23.56 24.40 24.10 24.48 24.50 24.47

32.30 27.88 33.34 28.64 32.18 32.33 2009 17.94 18.19 17.74 17.99 17.32 17.94 17.70 17.99 18.01 17.98

29.35 26.94 31.48 27.68 32.48 30.88 2010 17.62 18.04 15.95 15.50 16.75 15.66 16.93 15.97 16.71 17.57

29.01 26.05 29.06 28.28 32.23 29.67 2011 17.31 17.76 15.71 15.26 16.44 15.40 16.62 15.76 16.64 17.29

29.68 26.24 30.40 28.43 32.61 30.60 2012 18.25 18.67 16.61 16.15 17.36 16.30 17.54 16.69 18.47 18.24

30.07 26.06 30.32 28.43 32.95 30.78 2013 19.10 19.51 17.53 17.07 18.19 17.23 18.37 17.57 19.42 19.09

29.85 25.93 30.54 28.32 33.23 30.70 2014 19.71 20.15 18.08 17.62 18.80 17.79 18.98 18.19 20.03 19.71

29.60 25.57 30.62 28.15 32.95 30.46 2015 20.72 21.15 19.08 18.62 19.78 18.82 19.97 19.17 20.59 20.70

29.74 25.76 30.89 28.20 32.69 30.68 2016 21.46 21.91 19.84 19.37 20.50 19.58 20.70 19.89 20.64 21.43

29.90 25.98 31.32 28.05 32.37 30.87 2017 21.99 22.46 20.37 19.90 21.02 20.10 21.21 20.40 21.60 21.98

29.70 25.84 31.08 28.00 31.85 30.68 2018 22.64 23.13 21.01 20.54 21.67 20.76 21.85 21.08 22.14 22.64

29.39 25.51 30.69 27.91 31.52 30.40 2019 23.10 23.59 21.47 21.00 22.13 21.22 22.32 21.54 22.32 23.10

29.32 25.61 30.82 28.29 31.62 30.46 2020 23.26 23.77 21.63 21.16 22.31 21.38 22.47 21.66 22.76 23.28

29.22 25.60 30.88 28.53 31.45 30.55 2021 23.09 23.60 21.46 20.99 22.13 21.20 22.30 21.53 23.08 23.12

29.22 25.50 31.24 28.96 31.58 30.69 2022 23.56 24.07 21.92 21.45 22.60 21.65 22.77 22.13 22.96 23.58

29.24 25.33 31.48 29.44 31.69 30.81 2023 23.80 24.30 22.16 21.68 22.83 21.88 23.00 22.41 23.19 23.81

29.09 25.12 31.96 29.02 31.39 30.71 2024 23.88 24.39 22.25 21.77 22.92 21.97 23.09 22.45 23.15 23.90

28.81 24.83 31.77 29.17 31.05 30.43 2025 23.49 24.00 21.86 21.39 22.53 21.60 22.70 22.19 23.18 23.52

28.80 24.75 31.61 29.65 31.31 30.47 2026 24.45 24.96 22.81 22.34 23.48 22.55 23.65 22.99 23.45 24.46

28.92 24.75 31.04 30.06 31.29 30.53 2027 24.77 25.28 23.13 22.65 23.81 22.87 23.97 23.30 23.97 24.79

28.84 24.62 31.54 30.01 31.24 30.55 2028 24.91 25.40 23.24 22.77 23.93 22.98 24.09 23.43 24.06 24.92

29.12 24.72 32.38 30.63 31.46 30.91 2029 24.98 25.48 23.30 22.82 24.00 23.04 24.16 23.50 24.20 24.99

29.34 24.83 33.21 31.17 31.64 31.22 2030 25.23 25.64 23.46 22.99 24.25 23.20 24.40 23.74 24.81 25.21

29.66 25.06 33.73 31.64 31.88 31.54 2031 25.59 26.04 23.86 23.38 24.61 23.60 24.76 24.10 25.19 25.59

29.89 25.12 34.34 32.08 32.04 31.83 2032 25.99 26.42 24.23 23.75 25.01 23.97 25.16 24.49 25.69 25.98

29.98 25.20 34.67 32.37 32.12 31.96 2033 26.35 26.76 24.56 24.08 25.36 24.31 25.51 24.77 25.57 26.33

30.15 25.38 34.96 32.75 32.26 32.19 2034 26.74 27.17 24.96 24.48 25.75 24.71 25.90 25.17 25.96 26.73

30.35 25.44 35.26 33.08 32.39 32.39 2035 27.13 27.56 25.34 24.86 26.13 25.10 26.27 25.61 26.63 27.13

Updated Regional Residential Fuel Oil Price Forecasts - Low Growth Scenario

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)

Updated Regional Residential Electricity Price Forecasts - Low Growth Scenario

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)
Discount Rate

Import Parameters DISCOUNT RATE (Real Interest Rate) FOR NEW CONSTRUCTION ONLY Distribution of Real Interest Rates REAL Gains and Losses for Various Assets

from: RECS HH DataRECS Household # 141 Finance Method Share Min Max Mean 1st Mortgage Home Equity Credit Card Installment LoansOther Residence Other LOC Savings CD - 6mo. Treasury Corp AAA Stocks Mutual

replacement or new? 1 replacement New home (after tax) 100% 0.5% 22.9% 1.6% rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt Year Accounts CDs Sav Bonds Bonds S&P 500 Fund

0.5% 0.059 0.004 0.089 0.000 0.055 0.000 0.345 0.2% 0.129 0.1% 0.043 1977 -0.6% 1.2% 1.4% -12.7% -8.0% 

Export Parameters DISCOUNT RATE (Real Interest Rate) FOR REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT ONLY 1.6% 0.192 0.015 0.084 0.014 0.019 0.014 0.020 1.5% 0.061 1.4% 0.033 1978 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% -1.0% -0.4% 

to: Summary Finance Method Share Min Max Mean 2.5% 0.280 0.026 0.154 0.025 0.019 0.024 0.040 2.5% 0.084 2.5% 0.014 1979 0.1% -1.9% -1.5% 6.4% 3.7% 

Discount Rate 7.6% 1 Home Equity Loans (after tax) 3.7% 0.4% 42.5% 3.5% 3.5% 0.244 0.035 0.257 0.035 0.033 0.034 0.053 3.5% 0.153 3.5% 0.044 1980 -0.5% -2.0% -1.4% 16.1% 10.1% 

2 Credit card 2.1% 0.0% 36.9% 5.6% 4.4% 0.147 0.045 0.180 0.045 0.044 0.045 0.057 4.5% 0.149 4.5% 0.065 1981 5.0% 2.8% 3.5% -13.6% -8.1% 

3 Other Installment Loans 1.6% 0.0% 93.5% 0.0% 5.4% 0.043 0.054 0.112 0.056 0.061 0.056 0.067 5.5% 0.177 5.5% 0.124 1982 6.0% 6.2% 7.2% 13.4% 11.0% 

4 Other Residence Loans 5.3% 0.2% 17.9% 5.5% 6.4% 0.020 0.064 0.047 0.067 0.070 0.067 0.075 6.5% 0.127 6.7% 0.094 1983 5.9% 7.7% 8.6% 18.5% 14.9% 

5 Other Line of Credit 0.5% 0.1% 54.1% 5.5% 7.4% 0.007 0.075 0.036 0.075 0.040 0.075 0.033 7.5% 0.059 7.6% 0.052 1984 5.5% 6.1% 7.8% 8.0% 1.8% 3.8% 

6 Checking Accounts 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.004 0.085 0.019 0.087 0.060 0.086 0.040 8.6% 0.025 8.7% 0.090 1985 5.4% 4.5% 7.0% 7.5% 26.7% 20.1% 

7 Savings and Money Market 15.3% 0.0% 4.0% 1.7% 9.5% 0.002 0.095 0.009 0.096 0.055 0.095 0.037 9.4% 0.014 9.5% 0.089 1986 6.0% 4.6% 5.8% 7.0% 16.3% 12.8% 

8 CD (6 month) 8.6% -1.1% 6.1% 1.0% 10.5% 0.001 0.106 0.006 0.106 0.052 0.106 0.029 10.6% 0.004 10.5% 0.068 1987 3.3% 3.2% 4.8% 5.5% 2.1% 3.0% 

9 Savings Bonds (Treasury) 1.4% -2.0% 7.8% 4.1% 11.6% 0.001 0.118 0.002 0.115 0.058 0.115 0.019 11.6% 0.005 11.6% 0.063 1988 3.1% 3.6% 4.6% 5.4% 11.9% 9.5% 

10 Bonds (Corporate AAA) 9.5% -1.5% 8.6% 1.7% 12.4% 0.001 0.127 0.003 0.126 0.049 0.125 0.027 12.6% 0.004 12.5% 0.065 1989 3.0% 4.1% 3.5% 4.2% 25.4% 18.1% 

11 Stocks (S&P 500) 29.0% ###### 33.4% 15.2% 13.5% 0.000 0.137 0.000 0.136 0.044 0.135 0.019 14.7% 0.005 13.5% 0.019 1990 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% -8.0% -4.3% 

12 Mutual Funds (stock/bond) 18.6% ###### 23.6% 7.6% 14.4% 0.000 0.147 0.002 0.147 0.087 0.147 0.037 15.7% 0.001 14.7% 0.040 1991 2.7% 1.6% 3.8% 4.4% 25.0% 17.9% 

Total 100% wt.avg. 7.0% 16.7% 0.000 0.167 0.000 0.156 0.074 0.156 0.017 16.6% 0.003 15.6% 0.018 1992 2.1% 0.7% 4.5% 5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 

22.9% 0.000 0.175 0.000 0.164 0.055 0.165 0.019 17.9% 0.001 16.5% 0.027 1993 1.1% 0.3% 3.5% 4.1% 6.8% 5.7% 

Finanace Method # Sampled 12 0.425 0.001 0.176 0.053 0.176 0.019 17.3% 0.011 1994 1.3% 2.3% 4.7% 5.3% -1.2% 0.8% 

Real Interest Rate for that method 7.6% 0.185 0.019 0.185 0.012 18.5% 0.006 1995 2.2% 3.1% 3.9% 4.6% 33.4% 23.6% 

0.194 0.023 0.194 0.007 19.1% 0.012 1996 2.0% 2.4% 3.6% 4.3% 20.3% 14.7% 

0.205 0.012 0.205 0.007 20.2% 0.009 1997 2.7% 3.4% 4.2% 4.9% 28.9% 20.7% 

Avg drate for new 3.2% 0.214 0.005 0.215 0.005 21.5% 0.007 1998 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% 4.9% 26.4% 18.9% 

Avg drate for repl. 7.0% 0.225 0.003 0.223 0.002 22.1% 0.002 1999 2.3% 3.2% 3.6% 4.7% 18.3% 13.4% 

0.236 0.001 0.234 0.003 23.5% 0.002 2000 1.7% 3.1% 2.5% 4.1% -12.0% -7.2% 

0.246 0.003 0.246 0.004 25.4% 0.004 2001 1.8% 0.8% 2.6% 4.1% -14.3% -8.7% 

0.255 0.003 0.253 0.003 54.1% 0.002 2002 1.3% 0.2% 3.8% 4.8% -23.2% -14.2% 

0.263 0.002 0.266 0.000 2003 -0.2% -1.1% 2.6% 3.3% 25.5% 17.9% 

0.273 0.000 0.278 0.000 2004 -0.7% -0.9% 2.3% 2.9% 7.9% 6.0%

0.284 0.000 0.285 0.000 2005 -0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.3%

0.293 0.000 0.293 0.001 2006 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 2.3% 12.0% 8.5%

0.369 0.000 0.341 0.000 2007 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4%

0.361 0.000 2008 0.2% -0.7% 0.4% 1.7% -38.9% -25.8%

0.436 0.000 2009 3.6% 1.2% 4.5% 5.7% 26.4% 19.1%

0.443 0.000 Avg. 2.3% 2.2% 3.4% 4.1% 7.7% 6.2%

0.472 0.000 2 X Avg. 4.5% 4.5% 6.7% 8.2% 15.3% 12.5%

0.935 0.000 Min -0.7% -1.1% -2.0% -1.5% -38.9% -25.8%

Avg. 3.0% 100% 3.9% 100% 10.7% 100% 6.0% 100% 4.4% 100% 8.8% 100% Max 6.0% 6.1% 7.8% 8.6% 33.4% 23.6%

Min 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Std. Dev. 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.9% 11.5%

Max 22.9% 42.5% 36.9% 93.5% 17.9% 54.1% Source: Golden West Financial Corporation, Federal Reserve, and Demodaran Online

Dist. 1.6% 3.5% 5.6% 0.0% 5.5% 5.5% 

Sources: Estimate using 1989, 1992, 1998, 1998, 2001, 2004, and 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances
Lifetime of Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

 Export Parameters

to: Summary

Lifetime 13.0 years

Source: See Appendix 8-C

Assumptions

Lifetime distribution (years)

Mean min max max percentile

13 6 20 0.95

Calculated Values for Weibull Functions

Lifetime distribution (years)

Beta Alpha Likeliest value Solver Error

1.91 7.89 11.36 0.0

(Shape) (Scale)


Worksheet Cell AddressForecast Name Forecast Units DataSet Count Median

RECS WH E51 Tank Size gallon1 10000 32

Base Case EF C9 Base Case Efficiency1 10000 0.6

LCC&PB Calcs D6 Lifetime years1 10000 12.438898

Discount Rate D9 DiscountRate1 10000 0.0352533

Temperature U6 Outdoor Temp. (Annual Avg)

o

F

1 10000 49.791667

Temperature U7 Inlet Water Temp. (Annual Avg)

o

F

1 10000 51.544717

Temperature U8 Temp. of Inside the house

o

F

1 10000 68.666667

Temperature U9 Temp. of Air around Water Heater

o

F

1 10000 58.275

Temperature U10 Tank Setpoint Temperature

o

F

1 10000 120

Water Draw T6 Daily Hot Water Draw (Annual Avg)1 10000 42.064531

Equip Price D12 Markups (baseline)1 10000 1.572525

Equip Price D13 Markups (incremental)1 10000 1.247175

LCC&PB Calcs D31 Average Oil Price1 10000 30.2688

LCC&PB Calcs D32 Average Elec Price1 10000 0.174

RECS WH D66 in heated basement1 100000

RECS WH D67 in unheated basement1 100000

RECS WH D68 in garage, etc1 100000

RECS WH D69 inside house1 100000

RECS WH D70 in attic1 100000

RECS WH D72 tank size=30 gal1 100001

RECS WH D73 tank size=50 gal1 100000

LCC&PB Calcs E14 Annual Oil Use - level 0 MMBtu50E 10000 20.604881

LCC&PB Calcs E15 Annual Oil Use - level 1 MMBtu51E 10000 20.087441

LCC&PB Calcs E16 Annual Oil Use - level 2 MMBtu52E 10000 19.095426

LCC&PB Calcs E17 Annual Oil Use - level 3 MMBtu53E 10000 18.179138

LCC&PB Calcs E18 Annual Oil Use - level 4 MMBtu54E 10000 17.326583

LCC&PB Calcs E19 Annual Oil Use - level 5 MMBtu55E 10000 16.566101

LCC&PB Calcs E20 Annual Oil Use - level 6 MMBtu56E 10000 15.461402

LCC&PB Calcs E21 Annual Oil Use - level 7 MMBtu57E 10000 14.968289

LCC&PB Calcs F14 Annual Elec Use - level 0 kWh60F 10000 58.021199

LCC&PB Calcs F15 Annual Elec Use - level 1 kWh61F 10000 56.568514

LCC&PB Calcs F16 Annual Elec Use - level 2 kWh62F 10000 53.79805

LCC&PB Calcs F17 Annual Elec Use - level 3 kWh63F 10000 51.184408

LCC&PB Calcs F18 Annual Elec Use - level 4 kWh64F 10000 48.829627

LCC&PB Calcs F19 Annual Elec Use - level 5 kWh65F 10000 46.552055

LCC&PB Calcs F20 Annual Elec Use - level 6 kWh66F 10000 43.474011

LCC&PB Calcs F21 Annual Elec Use - level 7 kWh67F 10000 42.067975

LCC&PB Calcs G14 Retail Price - level 0$90G 10000 1258.3097

LCC&PB Calcs G15 Retail Price - level 1$91G 10000 1271.4588

LCC&PB Calcs G16 Retail Price - level 2$92G 10000 1284.6079

LCC&PB Calcs G17 Retail Price - level 3$93G 10000 1314.0305

LCC&PB Calcs G18 Retail Price - level 4$94G 10000 1296.455

LCC&PB Calcs G19 Retail Price - level 5$95G 10000 1327.5702

LCC&PB Calcs G20 Retail Price - level 6$96G 10000 1469.7363

LCC&PB Calcs G21 Retail Price - level 7$97G 10000 1466.4816

LCC&PB Calcs H14 Installation Cost - level 0$ 100H 10000 621.2189

LCC&PB Calcs H15 Installation Cost - level 1$ 101H 10000 621.2189

LCC&PB Calcs H16 Installation Cost - level 2$ 102H 10000 621.2189

LCC&PB Calcs H17 Installation Cost - level 3$ 103H 10000 621.2189

LCC&PB Calcs H18 Installation Cost - level 4$ 104H 10000 621.2189

LCC&PB Calcs H19 Installation Cost - level 5$ 105H 10000 621.2189

LCC&PB Calcs H20 Installation Cost - level 6$ 106H 10000 621.2189

LCC&PB Calcs H21 Installation Cost - level 7$ 107H 10000 621.2189

LCC&PB Calcs I14 Total Installed Price - level 0$ 110 I 10000 1949.1842

LCC&PB Calcs I15 Total Installed Price - level 1$ 111 I 10000 1963.2821

LCC&PB Calcs I16 Total Installed Price - level 2$ 112 I 10000 1976.151

LCC&PB Calcs I17 Total Installed Price - level 3$ 113 I 10000 2000.6095

LCC&PB Calcs I18 Total Installed Price - level 4$ 114 I 10000 1988.6125

LCC&PB Calcs I19 Total Installed Price - level 5$ 115 I 10000 2014.5097

LCC&PB Calcs I20 Total Installed Price - level 6$ 116 I 10000 2152.3106

LCC&PB Calcs I21 Total Installed Price - level 7$ 117 I 10000 2152.628

LCC&PB Calcs J14 Annual Maint. Cost - level 0$ 120J 10000 153.3597

LCC&PB Calcs J15 Annual Maint. Cost - level 1$ 121J 10000 153.3597

LCC&PB Calcs J16 Annual Maint. Cost - level 2$ 122J 10000 153.3597

LCC&PB Calcs J17 Annual Maint. Cost - level 3$ 123J 10000 153.3597

LCC&PB Calcs J18 Annual Maint. Cost - level 4$ 124J 10000 153.3597

LCC&PB Calcs J19 Annual Maint. Cost - level 5$ 125J 10000 153.3597

LCC&PB Calcs J20 Annual Maint. Cost - level 6$ 126J 10000 153.3597

LCC&PB Calcs J21 Annual Maint. Cost - level 7$ 127J 10000 153.3597

LCC&PB Calcs K14 Annual Repair Cost - level 0$ 130K 100000

LCC&PB Calcs K15 Annual Repair Cost - level 1$ 131K 100000

LCC&PB Calcs K16 Annual Repair Cost - level 2$ 132K 100000

LCC&PB Calcs K17 Annual Repair Cost - level 3$ 133K 100000

LCC&PB Calcs K18 Annual Repair Cost - level 4$ 134K 100000

LCC&PB Calcs K19 Annual Repair Cost - level 5$ 135K 100000

LCC&PB Calcs K20 Annual Repair Cost - level 6$ 136K 100000

LCC&PB Calcs K21 Annual Repair Cost - level 7$ 137K 100000

LCC&PB Calcs L14 Annual Oper. Cost - level 0$ 140L 10000 602.3223

LCC&PB Calcs L15 Annual Oper. Cost - level 1$ 141L 10000 590.6494

LCC&PB Calcs L16 Annual Oper. Cost - level 2$ 142L 10000 569.6428

LCC&PB Calcs L17 Annual Oper. Cost - level 3$ 143L 10000 549.8793

LCC&PB Calcs L18 Annual Oper. Cost - level 4$ 144L 10000 531.721

LCC&PB Calcs L19 Annual Oper. Cost - level 5$ 145L 10000 513.7802

LCC&PB Calcs L20 Annual Oper. Cost - level 6$ 146L 10000 490.2423

LCC&PB Calcs L21 Annual Oper. Cost - level 7$ 147L 10000 479.3185

LCC&PB Calcs N14 LCC - level 0$ 150N 10000 8064.3313

LCC&PB Calcs N15 LCC - level 1$ 151N 10000 7956.0037
LCC&PB Calcs N16 LCC - level 2

$ 152N 10000 7740.7469

LCC&PB Calcs N17 LCC - level 3$ 153N 10000 7558.607

LCC&PB Calcs N18 LCC - level 4$ 154N 10000 7350.6254

LCC&PB Calcs N19 LCC - level 5$ 155N 10000 7193.491

LCC&PB Calcs N20 LCC - level 6$ 156N 10000 7084.2515

LCC&PB Calcs N21 LCC - level 7$ 157N 10000 6972.3789

LCC&PB Calcs O15 LCC Saving - level 1$ 161O 100000

LCC&PB Calcs O16 LCC Saving - level 2$ 162O 100000

LCC&PB Calcs O17 LCC Saving - level 3$ 163O 100000

LCC&PB Calcs O18 LCC Saving - level 4$ 164O 100000

LCC&PB Calcs O19 LCC Saving - level 5$ 165O 10000 128.4415

LCC&PB Calcs O20 LCC Saving - level 6$ 166O 10000 233.8539

LCC&PB Calcs O21 LCC Saving - level 7$ 167O 10000 339.1709

LCC&PB Calcs P15 Payback - level 1 171P0 NA

LCC&PB Calcs P16 Payback - level 2 172P 2372 0.5976848

LCC&PB Calcs P17 Payback - level 3 173P 2372 0.8910865

LCC&PB Calcs P18 Payback - level 4 174P 4624 0.3209401

LCC&PB Calcs P19 Payback - level 5 175P 5314 0.5460579

LCC&PB Calcs P20 Payback - level 6 176P 6660 2.3334693

LCC&PB Calcs P21 Payback - level 7 177P END 8336 1.8722834

LCC&PB Calcs Q14 Total Oper. Cost - level 0$Q0 10000 6073.8977

LCC&PB Calcs Q15 Total Oper. Cost - level 1$Q1 10000 5957.4686

LCC&PB Calcs Q16 Total Oper. Cost - level 2$Q2 10000 5737.5903

LCC&PB Calcs Q17 Total Oper. Cost - level 3$Q3 10000 5530.0786

LCC&PB Calcs Q18 Total Oper. Cost - level 4$Q4 10000 5339.4879

LCC&PB Calcs Q19 Total Oper. Cost - level 5$Q5 10000 5158.8787

LCC&PB Calcs Q20 Total Oper. Cost - level 6$Q6 10000 4908.385

LCC&PB Calcs Q21 Total Oper. Cost - level 7$Q7 10000 4794.904

LCC&PB Calcs R15 Net Cost - level 1 naR10 NA

LCC&PB Calcs R16 Net Cost - level 2 naR20 NA

LCC&PB Calcs R17 Net Cost - level 3 naR30 NA

LCC&PB Calcs R18 Net Cost - level 4 naR40 NA

LCC&PB Calcs R19 Net Cost - level 5 naR50 NA

LCC&PB Calcs R20 Net Cost - level 6 naR6 2011

LCC&PB Calcs R21 Net Cost - level 7 naR7 351

LCC&PB Calcs S15 No Impact - level 1 naS1 100001

LCC&PB Calcs S16 No Impact - level 2 naS2 76281

LCC&PB Calcs S17 No Impact - level 3 naS3 76281

LCC&PB Calcs S18 No Impact - level 4 naS4 53761

LCC&PB Calcs S19 No Impact - level 5 naS5 46861

LCC&PB Calcs S20 No Impact - level 6 naS6 33401

LCC&PB Calcs S21 No Impact - level 7 naS7 16641

LCC&PB Calcs T15 Net Benefit - level 1 naT10 NA

LCC&PB Calcs T16 Net Benefit - level 2 naT2 23721

LCC&PB Calcs T17 Net Benefit - level 3 naT3 23721

LCC&PB Calcs T18 Net Benefit - level 4 naT4 46241

LCC&PB Calcs T19 Net Benefit - level 5 naT5 53141

LCC&PB Calcs T20 Net Benefit - level 6 naT6 64591

LCC&PB Calcs T21 Net Benefit - level 7 naT7 83011

LCC&PB Calcs U15 PB flag 1 - level 1 naU1 100001

LCC&PB Calcs U16 PB flag 1 - level 2 naU2 76281

LCC&PB Calcs U17 PB flag 1 - level 3 naU3 76281

LCC&PB Calcs U18 PB flag 1 - level 4 naU4 53761

LCC&PB Calcs U19 PB flag 1 - level 5 naU5 46861

LCC&PB Calcs U20 PB flag 1 - level 6 naU6 33401

LCC&PB Calcs U21 PB flag 1 - level 7 naU7 16641

LCC&PB Calcs V15 PB flag 2 - level 1 naV10 NA

LCC&PB Calcs V16 PB flag 2 - level 2 naV20 NA

LCC&PB Calcs V17 PB flag 2 - level 3 naV30 NA

LCC&PB Calcs V18 PB flag 2 - level 4 naV40 NA

LCC&PB Calcs V19 PB flag 2 - level 5 naV50 NA

LCC&PB Calcs V20 PB flag 2 - level 6 naV60 NA

LCC&PB Calcs V21 PB flag 2 - level 7 naV70 NA

END
Min Max Average 5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

32 50 38.0102 32 32 32 50 50 100%

0.51 0.68 0.597307 0.51 0.55 0.6 0.66 0.68 100%

6.0752038 33.186587 12.963857 7.7371785 10.080537 12.438607 15.26341 20.055743 100%

0 0.2931678 0.0479892 0.0009966 0.0200434 0.0352529 0.0669141 0.1286918 100%

39.183333 55.3 48.893592 39.875 47.216667 49.791667 51.091667 55.05 100%

33.345746 78.913334 52.159992 41.621408 48.436298 51.54385 55.950285 63.567363 100%

60.4 73.555556 68.386341 64.936111 66.533333 68.666667 70.333333 71.888889 100%

44.183333 73.333333 59.141666 50.925 55.233333 58.275 62.5625 70.008333 100%

120 140 124.2433 120 120 120 128 138 100%

1.0180336 174.16609 44.89603 10.529031 27.608072 42.063392 58.58141 88.750843 100%

1.5385649 1.94535 1.6084706 1.5385649 1.5460584 1.572525 1.583377 1.94535 100%

1.2202412 1.53846 1.2904218 1.2202412 1.2261842 1.247175 1.3018878 1.53846 100%

29.6634 30.5908 30.077 29.6862 29.7079 30.2688 30.356 30.5409 100%

0.1101 0.2028 0.1739 0.1432 0.1443 0.174 0.2016 0.2024 100%

0 1 0.2054 0 0 0 0 1 100%

0 1 0.4838 0 0 0 1 1 100%

0 1 0.3108 0 0 0 1 1 100%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%

0 1 0.6661 0 0 1 1 1 100%

0 1 0.3339 0 0 0 1 1 100%

7.9939313 68.110013 21.613937 11.548327 16.289032 20.603293 25.725412 35.439664 100%

7.5269092 67.498211 21.089311 11.054733 15.788988 20.086774 25.202505 34.907487 100%

6.6429033 66.343868 20.097411 10.114667 14.829391 19.094669 24.229979 33.744377 100%

5.8198632 65.273477 19.175253 9.2108279 13.931773 18.17829 23.27524 32.75154 100%

5.0516925 64.278202 18.315729 8.3708274 13.119689 17.325914 22.404933 31.754684 100%

4.3330812 63.350402 17.512662 7.5814565 12.337731 16.564151 21.58931 30.937151 100%

3.8839297 59.838036 16.361012 6.9415311 11.460353 15.46106 20.228836 29.043662 100%

3.6859294 58.225461 15.839475 6.6529421 11.061318 14.968012 19.593821 28.176584 100%

21.878265 184.61579 60.781158 32.311708 45.822608 58.019144 72.235369 99.211631 100%

20.600091 182.95747 59.305052 30.920366 44.398153 56.567408 70.693965 97.622593 100%

18.180691 179.82856 56.514119 28.311433 41.761926 53.797192 67.909696 94.526204 100%

15.928147 176.92721 53.919321 25.838006 39.254521 51.183983 65.273502 91.643359 100%

13.825771 174.22946 51.500671 23.547496 36.892423 48.828717 62.87472 89.121516 100%

11.859033 171.71461 49.240813 21.298212 34.718459 46.550359 60.643081 86.722734 100%

10.629769 162.19416 46.003487 19.522413 32.2534 43.470833 56.85319 81.581064 100%

10.08787 157.82319 44.537388 18.728154 31.108145 42.06612 55.11192 79.206272 100%

1222.6976 1724.7473 1327.5651 1222.6976 1249.6856 1258.3097 1397.018 1545.9696 100%

1235.022 1744.2858 1341.7176 1235.022 1262.2821 1271.4588 1413.4719 1561.5081 100%

1247.3464 1759.8242 1354.7508 1247.3464 1274.8786 1284.6079 1426.5572 1577.0465 100%

1274.9239 1781.3626 1380.2124 1274.9239 1303.0647 1314.0305 1444.6953 1611.8157 100%

1258.4506 1775.8242 1367.0533 1258.4506 1286.2278 1296.455 1440.0312 1591.0465 100%

1287.6144 1799.3626 1394.1924 1287.6144 1316.0353 1327.5702 1459.8535 1627.8157 100%

1420.8647 1963.3625 1533.9873 1420.8647 1452.2268 1469.7363 1597.9621 1795.8155 100%

1417.8141 1970.7471 1533.9036 1417.8141 1449.1089 1466.4816 1604.1809 1791.9694 100%

478.4279 1316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100%

478.4279 1316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100%

478.4279 1316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100%

478.4279 1316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100%

478.4279 1316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100%

478.4279 1316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100%

478.4279 1316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100%

478.4279 1316.7774 646.1189 500.3137 555.0156 621.1948 712.3091 872.664 100%

1701.515 2909.6432 1973.6841 1754.6168 1849.4553 1949.1825 2070.6255 2282.8735 100%

1713.8394 2929.1816 1987.8365 1767.1516 1862.3977 1963.2802 2085.8531 2299.3798 100%

1726.1639 2944.7201 2000.8698 1779.8418 1875.0092 1976.1486 2098.9914 2313.5374 100%

1753.7413 2966.2585 2026.3314 1808.1048 1902.6253 2000.5846 2123.5761 2337.5601 100%

1737.2681 2960.7201 2013.1722 1791.1159 1886.5672 1988.6016 2111.8502 2327.1452 100%

1766.4318 2984.2585 2040.3114 1821.2434 1916.0474 2014.4795 2137.8969 2353.1689 100%

1899.6822 3148.2583 2180.1062 1957.4287 2052.67 2152.2631 2279.84 2504.1496 100%

1896.6316 3155.6429 2180.0225 1954.3456 2050.9775 2152.6186 2280.5879 2508.0943 100%

153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100%

153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100%

153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100%

153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100%

153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100%

153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100%

153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100%

153.3597 294.2364 156.6029 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 153.3597 100%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%

323.9965 1645.8122 624.9799 404.9343 508.3953 602.2821 715.7517 927.3945 100%

314.0314 1632.4185 613.616 394.1679 497.46 590.6445 704.3279 914.6144 100%

295.1687 1607.1473 592.1304 374.2192 476.6581 569.6307 682.458 890.4428 100%

277.6069 1583.714 572.1555 354.6825 457.5718 549.8705 662.2259 867.4278 100%

261.2158 1561.9251 553.5372 336.5068 440.1578 531.6959 643.0238 847.3411 100%

245.8823 1541.6135 536.1419 319.1714 423.4246 513.749 625.0876 828.5575 100%

236.2952 1464.6518 511.1869 305.4055 404.0874 490.2404 595.4208 788.147 100%

232.0689 1429.3173 499.8857 299.1841 395.2612 479.2628 582.1025 769.9639 100%

3303.9796 29181.836 8628.7464 5028.417 6516.1203 8064.1225 10074.352 14242.602 100%

3280.1763 28894.715 8518.2653 4964.5891 6435.992 7955.2464 9947.8245 14045.112 100%
3224.0627 28335.689 8295.6562 4836.0375 6262.6598 7740.5043 9683.1626 13701.643 100%

3188.0004 27823.1 8102.0438 4724.8389 6118.8687 7558.2156 9453.3285 13400.402 100%

3094.8559 27325.758 7884.6899 4576.8462 5943.3542 7350.1675 9186.442 13063.334 100%

3052.3731 26885.4 7721.0468 4478.7125 5825.1424 7193.3921 8995.2304 12794.552 100%

3145.9286 25774.163 7587.2214 4506.4924 5786.2366 7083.9728 8807.0379 12393.288 100%

3121.5179 25211.383 7463.2253 4450.8406 5703.5618 6971.8199 8658.9422 12165.561 100%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%

0 902.1613 53.7818 0 0 0 0 293.8267 100%

0 1733.0556 100.9152 0 0 0 0 555.5894 100%

0 2525.919 203.0592 0 0 0 328.7892 831.3461 100%

0 3242.2642 294.5802 0 0 128.3713 507.0786 1055.9956 100%

-89.9782 4029.0906 390.8787 0 0 233.8351 652.0551 1318.8338 100%

-59.049 4435.2516 495.38 0 86.5553 338.7717 780.5847 1507.9583 100%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

0.3734677 1.109889 0.6124 0.4673334 0.547656 0.5976848 0.6687081 0.78477 24%

0.4594971 1.7967015 0.9109614 0.5891212 0.7156409 0.8910272 1.0784293 1.2900524 24%

0 0.7384608 0.2197989 0 0 0.3209401 0.4239821 0.5164062 46%

0.2595786 2.8283995 0.7123928 0.3320191 0.4079092 0.5460579 0.7549791 1.9352693 53%

1.0531051 16.799983 3.2973345 1.524713 1.9156941 2.3334033 4.1499748 8.0112653 67%

0 10.943579 2.0683205 0 1.3988167 1.8722834 2.5811521 5.2101466 83%

1514.0398 27148.06 6655.0624 3120.7418 4561.4427 6073.8506 8069.4633 12233.015 100%

1477.8522 26845.1 6530.4288 3043.5797 4465.1424 5957.3558 7921.4848 12026.389 100%

1391.2376 26273.478 6294.7864 2895.6338 4281.7785 5737.4606 7644.61 11670.296 100%

1307.1171 25743.428 6075.7124 2759.8648 4107.7494 5529.4442 7393.988 11325.336 100%

1228.6046 25250.575 5871.5177 2632.6831 3951.7463 5339.3725 7162.3146 11016.893 100%

1155.1574 24791.136 5680.7354 2514.5326 3798.883 5157.4573 6942.2446 10725.928 100%

1107.2359 23546.95 5407.1152 2396.706 3621.1875 4908.027 6611.1692 10194.003 100%

1086.0641 22978.184 5283.2028 2346.8454 3538.3382 4794.8487 6457.323 9954.6706 100%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 76%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 76%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 54%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 47%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 33%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 17%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 24%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 24%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 46%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 53%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 65%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 83%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 76%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 76%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 54%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 47%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 33%

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 17%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0%
Oil-fired Storage Water Heaters

Simulation Results: Input to NIA

rebound = 0%

(MMBtu) (kWh)

0 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass) (BASELINE) 0.53 21.6 60.8

1 Electronic Ignition, 1.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.54 21.1 59.3

2 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (fiberglass) 0.56 20.1 56.5

3 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (fiberglass) 0.58 19.2 53.9

4 Electronic Ignition, 2” Ins (foam) 0.60 18.3 51.5

5 Electronic Ignition, 2.5” Ins (foam) 0.62 17.5 49.2

6 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (fiberglass), enhanced flue baffle 0.66 16.4 46.0

7 Electronic Ignition, 1” Ins (foam), enhanced flue baffle 0.68 15.8 44.5

All dollar values are in 2009 $

Annual 

Elec Use Eff. Level Description Annual Oil Use EF
rebound = 10%

(MMBtu) (kWh) ($) ($) ($)

21.6 60.8 $1,974 $157 $0 0.0%

21.1 59.5 $1,988 $157 $0 23.7%

20.2 56.9 $2,001 $157 $0 0.0%

19.4 54.6 $2,026 $157 $0 22.5%

18.6 52.4 $2,013 $157 $0 6.9%

17.9 50.4 $2,040 $157 $0 13.5%

16.9 47.5 $2,180 $157 $0 16.8%

16.4 46.2 $2,180 $157 $0 16.6%

% of total Annual 

Oil Use

Annual 

Elec Use

Total 

Installed 

Price

Annual 

Repair 

Cost

Annual 

Maint. 

Cost