A TTACHMENT F

DEVELOPMENT OF DFW ON

- ROAD EMISSION INVENT ORIES FOR THE YEARS
201 2 , 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023 , 2026

, AND 202 8DALLAS

- FORT WORTH ON

- ROAD EMISSION INVENTORIES TO SUPPO RT THE ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 EIGHT

- HOUR OZONE NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARD REDESIGNATION SUBSTI TUTE STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

This a ttachment documents the development of the on

- road mobile emissions inventory (EI) for the updates to the Dallas

- Fort Wo rth Ozone Nonattainment Area (DFW) Redesignation Substitution ( RS ) State Implementation Plan.

The development of the RFP EIs was done by the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) at the request and under the direction of the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The on

- road mobile source EIs and control strategy reduction estimates reflect the most recent planning assumptions for the DFW transportation network. Complete documentation of the development and resulting EI is provided in the attached document, Dallas

- Fort Worth On

- R oad Emission Inventories to Support One

- Hour Ozone and 1997 Eight

- Hour Ozone Redesignation Substitute . The final emissions estimates are summarized in Chapter 1 : Introduction , in Exhibit 1.3: On

- road Emission s for the DFW Four

County Modeling Domain and Exhibit 1.4: On

- road Emissions for the DFW Nine

- County Modeling Domain

. The supporting electronic documents for the EI development, including MOVES 2014 input and output files and the post processing spreadsheets used to summarize the inventories are available upon request in electronic format. Please contact the TCEQ, Air Quality Division, Area and Mobile Source Inventory and Data Support Team if a copy of the electronic information is needed.

The report also documents the development of year

- to

- year control strategy reduction estimates for each of the RS milestone years between 2012 and 2028 . Control strategy emission reduction estimates include the effe cts of the Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program, the DFW vehicle inspection and maintenance program, federal reformulated gasoline Phase 1 and Phase 2, and the Texas Low Emission Diesel Program. The control scenarios are the basis for quantifying the

year

- to

- year reductions.

# Dallas

- Fort Worth
On

- road Emission Inventories to Support One

- Hour Ozone and 1997 Eight

- Hour Ozone Redesignation Substitute

March 2015 Collin | Dallas | Denton | Ellis | Johnson Kaufman | Parker | Rockwall | Tarrant

### What is NCTCOG?

The North Central Texas Council of Governments is a voluntary association of cities, counties, school districts, and special districts which was established in January 1966 to assist local governments in planning for common needs, cooperating for mutual benefit, and coordinating for sound regional development.

It serves a 16-county metropolitan region centered around the two urban centers of Dallas and Fort Worth. Currently the Council has 238 members , including 16 counties, 169 cities, 22 independent school districts, and 31 special districts. The area of the region is approximately 12,800 square miles , which is larger than nine states, and the population of the region is over
6.5 million , which is larger than 38 states.

**NCTCOG's** structure is relatively simple; each member government appoints a voting representative from the governing body. These voting representatives make up the General Assembly which annually elects a 15-member Executive Board. The Executive Board is supported by policy development, technical advisory, and study committees, as well as a professional staff of 310

.

NCTCOG's offices are located in Arlington in the Centerpoint Two Building at 616 Six Flags Drive (approximately one-half mile south of the main entrance to Six Flags Over Texas).

**North Central Texas Council of Governments**
**P. O. Box 5888 Arlington, Texas 76005-5888**  **(817) 640-3300**

NCTCOG's Department of Transportation

Since 1974 NCTCOG has served as the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for transportation for the Dallas-Fort Worth area. NCTCOG's Department of Transportation is responsible for the regional planning process for all modes of transportation. The department provides technical support and staff assistance to the Regional Transportation Council and its technical committees, which compose the MPO policy-making structure. In addition, the department provides technical assistance to the local governments of North Central Texas in planning, coordinating, and implementing transportation decisions.

Prepared in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and the U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, and Federal Transit Administration.

"The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors who are responsible for the opinions, findings, and conclusions presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Federal Highway Administration, the Federal Transit Administration, or the Texas Department of Transportation."

# Dallas

- Fort Worth
On

- road Emission Inventories to Support One

- Hour Ozone and 1997 Eight

- Hour Ozone Redesignation Substitute

March 2015 Collin | Dallas | Denton | Ellis | Johnson Kaufman | Parker | Rockwall | TarrantNCTCOG Executive Board 2014

- 201 5

President Kathryn Wilemon Mayor Pro Tem City of Arlington

Vice

- President John Horn County Judge Hunt County

Secretary

- Treasurer Daniel Scarth Councilmember City of Fort Worth

Past President Stephen Terrell Mayor City of Allen Director Vonciel Jones Hill Councilmember City of Dallas

Director Clay Lewis Jenkins County Judge Dallas County

Director Tom Lombard Councilmember City of North Richland Hills

Director Laura Maczka Mayor City of Richardson Director Dr. Larry Marshall Councilmember City of Benbrook

Director Keith Self County Judge Collin County

Director Kevin Strength Mayor City of Waxahachie

Director Laura Wheat Mayor Town of Westlake D irector B. Glen Whitley County Judge Tarrant County

Ex Officio, Non

- Voting Member Jeff Leach Texas House of Representatives

General Counsel Jerry Gilmore

Executive Director R. Michael Eastland

Regi onal Transportation Council 201 4

- 201 5

Mike Cantrell , Chair Commissioner, Dallas County

Mark Riley , Vice Chair County Judge, Parker County

Ron Jensen , Secretary Mayor, City of Grand Prairie

Douglas Athas Mayor, City of Garland

Brian Barth , P

. E

. D istrict Engineer Texas Department of Transportation

, Fort Worth District

Carol Bush County Judge , Ellis County

Sheri Capehart Councilmember

, City of Arlington

Rudy Durham Councilmember , City of Lewisville

A n dy Eads Commissioner, Denton County

Charles Emery Board Chair, Denton County Transportation Authority

Mark Enoch Board Member Dallas Area Rapid Transit

Gary Fickes Commissioner, Tarrant County

Rob Franke, P

. E

. Mayor, City of Cedar Hill

Sandy Greyson Council m ember, City of Dallas

Mojy Haddad Board Member, North Texas Tollway Authority Roger Harmon County Judge, Johnson County

Vonciel Jones Hill Councilmember, City of Dallas

Clay Lewis Jenkins County Judge, Dallas County

Jungus Jordan Councilmember, City of Fort Worth

Sheffie Kadane Councilmember, City of Dallas

Lee Kleinman Councilmember , City of Dallas

Stephen Lindsey Councilmember

, City of Mansfield

Brian Loughmiller Mayor , City of McKinney

Laura Maczka Mayor, City of Richardson

David Magness Commissioner, Rockwall County

Scott Mahaffey Board Chair Fort Worth Transportation Authority

Matthew Marchant Mayor , City of Carrollton

Maher Maso Mayor, City of Frisco

John Monaco Mayor, City of Mesquite

Kevin Roden Councilmember, City of Denton

Amir Rupani Citizen Representative , City of Dallas Daniel Scarth Councilmember, City of Fort Worth

Kelly Selman, P.E. District Engineer Texas Department of Transportation,
Dallas District

Lissa Smi th Mayor Pro Tem, City of Plano

Mike Taylor Mayor Pro Tem, City of Colleyville

Stephen Terrell Mayor, City of Allen

T. Oscar Trevino, Jr., P.E. Mayor, City of North Richland Hills

William Velasco, II Citizen Representative, City of Dallas

Oscar Ward Councilmember, City of Irving

Bernice J. Washington
Board Member Dallas/ F ort Worth International Airport

Duncan Webb Commissioner, Collin County

B. Glen Whitley County Judge, Tarrant County

Kathryn Wilemon Mayor Pro Tem, City of Arlington

Zim Zimmerman Councilmember , City of Fort Worth

Michael Morris, P

. E

. Dir ector of Transportation, N CTC OG

Surface Transportation Technical Committee Gregory Van Nieuwenhuize , Chair

Haltom CityABSTRACT

TITLE: Dallas

- Fort Worth On

- r oad Emission Inventories to

S upport One

- H our Ozone and 1997 Eight

- H our
Ozone Redesignation Substitute

DATE: March 201 5

AUTHORS: Jenny Narvaez

Principal Air Quality Planner

Jody Loza Air Quality Planner

SUBJECT: Redesignation for the One

- H our Ozone and 1997

Eight

- Hour Ozone Standard s

SOURCES OF COPIES: Transportation Department
North Central Texas Council of Governments

PO Box 5888 Arlington, Texas 76005

- 5888 (817) 695

- 9240

NUMBER OF PAGES: 40

ABSTRACT: The North Central Texas Council of Governments

conducted on

- road emission inventor ies to assist
the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to develop the one

- hour ozone and 1997

- eight

- hour ozone redesignation substitute State Implementation Plan for the Dallas

- Fort Worth region. Four counti es were previously designated

as nonattainment for the on e

- h our ozone standard: Collin, Dallas, Denton and Tarrant Counties; and

nine counties previously designate d as
nonattainment for the 1997 eight

- hour ozone standard: Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker Rockwall, and Tarrant. This report
d ocuments the on

- road mobile methodologies applied and estimated emission results for analysis

years 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and

2028

. The estimated emissions are reported for oxides of nitrogen , volatile organic compounds

,carbon monoxide, carb on d ioxide, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters equal to or
less than 2.5 microns , and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters equal to or less than 10

microns

.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The North Central Texas Council of Governments would like to thank the following individuals for their invaluable assistance in preparing this report.

Michael Morris, P.E. Director of Transportation
Dan Kessler Assistant Director of Transportation

Vickie Alexander Administrative Program Su pervisor
Berrien Barks Senior Transportation Planner Emily Beckham Grants and Contract Supervisor
Michael Burbank Program Manager
Cecilia Howard Senior Administrative Assistant
Chris Klaus Senior Program Manager
Dan Lamers, P.E. Senior Pr ogram Manager
Chad McKeown Program Manager Arash Mirzaei, P.E. Senior Program Manager Behruz Paschai, Ph.D., P.E. Transportation System Modeling Manager Ashley Releford Grants and Contracts Coordinator

Sam uel Simmons Transportation Planner III

Francisco Torres Principal Transportation Planner
Mitzi Ward Principal Transportation Planner

Kathleen Yu Senior Transportation System Modeler Madhusudhan Venugopal, P.E. Providence Engineering and Environmental Group, LLC.
Chris Kite Texas Co mmission on Environmental Quality
Naomi Craib Texas Commission on Environmental Quality Mary McGarry

- Barber Texas Commission on Environmental Quality
Chris Owen Texas Commission on Environmental Quality

Zarena Post Texas Commission on Environmen tal Quality
Leslie Schmidt Texas Commission on Environmental Quality
Matthew Southard Texas Commission on Environmental QualityGLOSSARY OF ABBREVIA TIONS

ASWT

- Average School Season

Weekday

ATR

- Automatic Traffic Recorder

CAAA

- Clean Air Act Amendments

CO

- Carbon Monoxide

CO 2 - Carbon Dioxide

DFW

- Dallas

- Fort Worth

DFX

- Dallas

- Fort Worth Travel

Model for the Expanded

Area

DV

- Design Value

EPA

- Environmental Protection

Agency

GISDK

- Geographic Information

System Developer Kit

HBW

- Home

- Based Work

HNW

- Home

- Based Non

- Work

HOV

- High Occupancy Vehicle

HPMS

- Highway Performance

Monitoring System I/M

- Inspection & Maintenance

Program

MPA

- Metropolitan Planning Area

MPO

- Metropolitan Planning

Organization

MOVES 2014

- Motor Vehicle Emissions

Simulator
NAAQS

- National Ambient Air Quality

Standards

NCT

- North Central Texas

NCTCOG

- North Central Texas Council

of Governments NHB

- Non

- Home Based

NO

- Nitrogen Oxide

NO 2 - Nitrogen Dioxide

NO X - Oxides of Nitrogen
Pb

- Lead

PM

- Particulate Matter

PM 2.5 - Particulate Matter 2.5

Microns

PM 10 - Particulate Matter 10

Microns ppb

- parts per billion

SIP

- State Implementation Plan

SO 2 - Sulfur Dioxide

SUT

- Source Use Types
TCEQ

- Texas Commission on

Environmental Quality

TOD

- Time

- of

- Day

TSZ

- Traffic Survey Zone

TTI

- Texas Transportation

Institute

TxDMV

- Texas Department of Motor

Vehicles

TxDOT

- Texas Department of

Transportation

TxLED

- Texa s Low Emissions Diesel

VHT

- Vehicle Hours of Travel

VMT

- Vehicle Miles of Travel

VDF

- Volume Delay Function

VOC

- Volatile Organic CompoundsTABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1: Introduction

................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 1 Background

................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 2 Purpose and Scope of Study

................................ ................................ ............................... 4 Modeling Approach

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 4 Chapter 2: Vehicle Activity Estimation Procedures

................................ ................................ ....... 7
Dallas

- Fort Worth Expanded Travel Model

................................ ................................ ........ 7 Multimodal Transportation Analysis Process

................................ ......................... 7 Trip Generation Model

................................ ................................ ............. 10 Trip Distribution Model

................................ ................................ ............. 11
Mode Choice Model

................................ ................................ .................. 11 Roadway Assignment

................................ ................................ ................ 11 Speed Estimation Procedure

................................ ................................ ................ 12
Local Street VMT

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 13 Adjustments

................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 13 Seasonal, Daily, and Hourly Adjustments

................................ ............................. 13 Seasonal and Daily Adjustments

................................ ................................ ........... 15 Hourly Adjustments

................................ ................................ .............................. 16 Model VMT Adjustments (HPMS vs. DFX)

................................ ............................ 17 Nonrecurring Congestion

................................ ................................ ...................... 18

VMT Estimates

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 18 Chapter 3: Emission Factor Estimation Procedure

................................ ................................ ...... 20 Mobile Model and Input Parameters

................................ ................................ ............... 20 Area Specific Calculations and Procedures

................................ ................................ ....... 25 SourceUse Type Distribution

................................ ................................ ................ 25 Fuel Engine Fractions

................................ ................................ ............................ 27

MOVES2014 Emission Factors

................................ ................................ .............. 27 Adjustments

................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 27 TxLED NOx Adjustment

................................ ................................ ......................... 27 Sourceusetype Population

................................ ................................ .................... 28 Vehicle Miles of Travel Mix (or Fractions) (VMT Mix)

................................ .......... 29 Chapter 4: Emission Calculation Procedure

................................ ................................ ................. 32

Emission Estimation

................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 33

Rate Per Distance

................................ ................................ ................................ .. 33
Rate Per Vehicle

................................ ................................ ................................ .... 33
Rate Per Profile

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 33 Chapter 5: Summary of Vehicle Miles of Travel, Speed, and Emissions

................................ ...... 34
Vehicle Miles of Travel Estimates

................................ ................................ ..................... 34 Speed Estimates

................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 34

Emission Estimates

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 34 Chapter 6: List of Appendices

................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 40TABLE OF EXHIBITS

Exhibit 1.1: DFW Nonattainment Area Map

................................ ................................ .................. 1
Exhibit 1.2: DFW Travel Demand Modeling Domain Map

................................ ............................. 4
Exhibit 1.3: On

- r oad Emissions for the DFW Four

- County Modeling Domain

.............................. 5
Exhibit 1.4: On

- r oad Emissions for the DFW Nine

- County Modeling Domain

.............................. 6 Exhibit 2.1: DFW Expanded Travel Model Process Forecast Flowchart

................................ ........ 9
Exhibit 2.2: Socio

- e conomic Demographic Summary

................................ ................................ .. 10 Exhibit 2.3: Average Congested Speeds

................................ ................................ ....................... 13
Exhibit 2.4: ATR Stations

................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 14 Exhibit 2.5: ATR Station Map

................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 15 Exhibit 2.6: Seasonal/Daily Adjustment Factors

................................ ................................ .......... 16 Exhibit 2.7: Hourly Adjustment Factors for the DFW Four

- County and Nine

- County

Modeling Domains

................................ ................................ ................................ . 17 Exhibit 2.8: 2010 DFW and HPMS VMT Analysis

................................ ................................ ......... 18 Exhibit 2.9: Vehicle Miles of Travel (Miles/Day)

................................ ................................ .......... 19
Exhibit 3.1: MOVES2014 Modeled Pollutants

................................ ................................ .............. 20
Exhibit 3.2: MOVES2014 External Conditions

................................ ................................ .............. 20 Exhibit 3.3: MOVES2014 Input Parameters

................................ ................................ ................. 21 Exhibit 3.4: MOVES2014 I/M Descriptive Inputs for Subject Counties

................................ ........ 23 Exhibit 3.5: MOVES2014 Fuel Properties

................................ ................................ ..................... 2 4 Exhibit 3.6: County

- to

- County Worker Flow

................................ ................................ ................ 26
Exhibit 3.7: TxLED NO x Adjustments

................................ ................................ ............................ 28 Exhibit 3.8: Population for the DFW Four

- County and Nine

- County Modeling Do mains

........... 29
Exhibit 3.9: Vehicle Classification Process

................................ ................................ ................... 30
Exhibit 4.1: MOVES2014 Emission Calculation Modeling Process

................................ ................ 32 Exhibit 4.2: DFX Area Type

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 33 Exhibit 5.1: VMT by County

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 35 Exhibit 5.2: Final Emission Estimates by County

................................ ................................ ........... 35ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 1

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUC TION

The North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG ) conducted an on

road emissions inventory to support the
Texas Commission on Environmental Quality’s (TCEQ) efforts to develop modeling

work for the One

- hour Ozone and 1997

E igh t

- hour Ozone Redesignation State Implementation Plan (SIP ). This emission inventory covers the Dallas

- Fort Worth ( DFW ) four

- county nonattainment
area for the one

- hour standard: Collin, Dallas, Denton

, and Tarrant counties as well
as the nine

- c ounty nonattainment area for the 1997 eight

- hour ozone standard: Collin, Dallas, Denton, E llis, Johnson, Kaufman,

Parker

, Rockwall

, and Tarrant counties as shown in Exhibit 1

. 1

.

Exhibit 1. 1: DFW Nonattainment Area MapONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 2

This report documents the methodology and results of the Redesignation Substitute

emission i nventory. The Redesignation
Substitute emission inventory analysis years include: 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 . Chapter 1 outlines the background for the Redesignation Substitute emission inventory, the purpose and scope of the study, the modeling approach, and provides a summary of the four

- county and

nine

- county estimated emission totals and activity summaries

.

Chapter 2 documents the procedures used to develop regional vehicle activity estimates in terms of vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and average vehicle speed. These procedures include development of adjustment factors

to more accurately reflect regional conditions. Seasonal and hourly adjustment factors were applied to produce 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 analysis year vehicle activity and report vehicle activity in hourly periods. Consistent with previous emission inve ntory practice s , a comparison was made between the Dallas

Fort worth Expanded Travel Demand M ode (DFX) VMT estimates and appropriate Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) VMT to develop HPMS adjustment factors. Also, a nonrecurring congestion adjus tment was applied to account for vehicle emissions due to traffic accidents not captured in the standard four

- step travel modeling process. Chapter 3 documents the parameters and inputs used to develop on

- road mobile source emission factors by utilizing t he
United States Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) mobile source model, Motor
Vehicle Emission Simulator version 2014 (MOVES2014) . This chapter documents regionally specific calculations, procedures,

MOVES 2014 emission factors, and adjustments to mo re accurately reflect regional vehicle emissions emitted. The calculations and procedures include vehicle registration, diesel fractions, hourly VMT, and trip length distribution. Also accounted
for are low emission die sel oxides of nitrogen ( NO X ) adjustments and VMT mix.

Chapter 4 documents the four

- county and

ni ne

- c ounty nonattainment area vehicle

e mission calculation procedure.

Chapter 5 summarizes emissions of all polluta nts by county and analysis year

.

The Appendices contains supplemental

i nformation , including a table containing all pollutants calculated, and electronic data supporting the D FW R edesignation
Substitute Emissions Inventory

.

Background
The Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 requires the EPA to set National Ambient Air Quality Standards ( NAAQS) for widespread pollutants considered harmful to public health and the environment. The EPA set NAAQS for six of the principal pollutants:

o zone , particulate matter (PM), carbon

m onoxide (CO), sulfur d ioxide, NO X , and l ead.

With the signing of the CAAA into law, the
four c ounties of Collin, Dallas, Denton, and

Tarrant County in the DFW region were designated as nonattainment under the

one

- hour NAAQS for the pollutant ozone. The law also requires the EPA to periodicallyONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 3

review the NAAQS to ensure they provide adequate health and environmental protection and to update these standards as necessary. Upon completion of a scientific
review of the one

- hour NAAQS, EPA
determined the one

- hour NAAQS was insufficient to protect human health. As a result, the EPA developed the 1997 eight

hour NAAQS, <85 parts per billions (ppb), to place greater emphasis on prolonged exposure to pollutants.

In Apri l 2004, EPA announced Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, and Tarrant Counties comprise
the new DFW nine

- county nonattainment area for the pollutant ozone under the 1997

8

- hour NAAQS, with an effective designation date of Jun e 15, 2004. The

nine

- county nonattainment region received
a “Moderate” ozone classification with an attainment date of June 15, 2010. As a result of not reaching attainment by June 2010, the DFW region was classified as
“Serious” with the new attainment date of

June 2013.

On February 10, 2015, the EPA proposed to reclassify the DFW area as “Severe” nonattainment for the 1997 eight

- hour ozone standard, since DFW failed to meet the June 15, 2013

, deadline to reach attainment; however, the EPA subsequently published a final rule revoking the 1997 eight

- hour ozone standard with an effective date of April 6, 201 5 . Since EPA cannot reclassify or redesignate areas based on a
revoke d standard, the DFW region is no longer subject to being reclassified as
“Severe”. The DFW area ’s 2014 design value (DV) , the three

- year average of the annual fourth highest daily maximum eight

- hour

1 http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/cgi

- bin/compliance/monops/8hr_attainment.pl ozone concentration measured at each monitoring site , is 81 ppb 1 , bringing th e

reg ion ’s DV below the 199 7 eight

- hour
ozone standard. Although the DFW region can no longer redesignated to attainment
under the revoked standard, the DFW region is eligible to submit a redesignation
substitute to remove the “Serious” anti

backsliding requirements for the one

- hour and 1997 eight

- hour standard.

The TCEQ, s tate’s environmental agency, is required under the CAAA to submit a SIP

revisions requesting designation to

attainment

. A maintenance plan must also
be submitted with the redesignatio n , including a selection of regulations and
measures to reduce emissions from stationary, area, mobile (on

- road and non

road) sources, which demonstrates how the region will stay in attainment.

On

- road mobile is a key component of the
SIP, as a SIP place s emission limits on on

road mobile sources. These on

- road mobile
emission limits are termed motor vehicle emission budgets and have a direct impact on transportation planning. NCTCOG serves as the Metropolitan Plannin g Organization (MPO) for transportat ion in the DFW area and is responsible for developing and maintaining on

- road mobile source emission inventories for the region. NCTCOG applies a four

- step travel demand model process using TransCAD software to forecast regional vehicle activity and utili zes EPA’s MOVES 2014 with a post

- processing application to estimate regional mobile

source emissions.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 4

Purpose and Scope of Study

NCTCOG conducted 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 analysis year on

- road

emission inventories to support TCEQ’s efforts to develop a Redesignation Substitute

SIP for the DFW four

- county and nine

- county
nonattainment area s . The pollutants to be
included are: NO X , volatile organic compounds (VOC), CO, carbon d ioxide (CO 2 ), PM 2.5 , and PM 10

.

Modeling Approach
The DFX is employed to estimate VMT and
emissions for the 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 analysis year s

. DFX’s modeling domain includes Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hill, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, Tarrant, and

Wise Counties. Hill County is not part of the North Central Texas ( NCT ) Metropolitan Planning Area ( MPA ) boundary; however, to capture travel from outside areas, Hill County is included in the modeling domain.
The 12

- county MPA and the 13

- county DFX modeling domain is shown in Exhibit 1

. 2

.

Exhibit 1

. 2 : DFW Travel Demand Modeling Domain MapONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 5

Several components of the model were updated as part of this model expansion. These include improvements to the mode

choice model; vehicle ownership model; external stations; volume

- delay

- function; transit assignment ; and traffi c assignment convergence criteria, which are discussed in Chapter 2

. Th e final 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 on

- road emissions by pollutant and VMT for average summer weekday types are show n in Exhibit 1.3 and

1.4 . Appendix G contains the detailed

emissions by county by pollutant and time

of

- day for all NCT counties modeled.

Exhibit 1 .3 : On

- r oad Emissions for the DFW Four

- C ounty Modeling Domain

Four

- c ounty Total Emissions (tons per day)

2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

VMT 158,968,136 166,904,345 182,658,562 193,804,121 203,852,679 214,346,979 225,718,496

NO X 171.20 147.42 96.74 69.67 54.44 43.33 38.83

VOC 78.56 71.20 55.59 46.81 41.53 35.85 32.94

CO 1,012.11 970.62 877.61 813.08 744.34 645.90 597.70

CO 2 86,955.07 89,632.14 93,630.82 93,609.47 91,308.15 88,741.64 88,658.97

HONO 1.37 1.18 0.77 0.56 0.44 0.35 0.31

NO 152.85 130.42 83.88 58.98 44.66 33.91 29.96

NO 2 16.98 15.82 12.09 10.13 9.34 9.07 8.56

PM 2.5 5.10 4.29 3.00 2.30 1.75 1.47 1.34

PM 10 5.60 4.71 3.30 2.55 1.95 1.64 1.49ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 6

Exhibit 1 .4 : On

- r oad Emissions for the DFW Nine

- C ounty Modeling Domain

Nine

- c ounty Total Emissions (tons per day)

2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

VMT 183,855,804 193,671,709 212,516,292 226,113,715 238,584,779 251,758,922 265,309,733

NO X 216.74 188.65 129.19 95.95 77.87 64.62 59.75

VOC 92.17 83.75 65.62 55.36 49.21 42.70 39.49

CO 1,161.55 1,117.46 1,010.18 936.65 859.88 748.53 694.05

CO 2 102,142 105,707 111,055 111,582 109,491 107,128 107,375

HONO 1.73 1.51 1.03 0.77 0.62 0.52 0.48

NO 193.33 166.38 110.85 79.73 62.07 48.75 44.16

NO 2 21.68 20.76 17.30 15.46 15.17 15.35 15.11

PM 2.5 6.48 5.48 3.83 2.94 2.22 1.85 1.68

PM 10 7.10 6.01 4.21 3.24 2.46 2.06 1.87ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 7

CHAPTER 2: VEHICLE A CTIVITY ESTIMATION PROCEDURE S

This chapter discusses the methodology used in estimating the vehicle activity

measures influencing air quality in the
North Central Texas area. These measures
include : vehicle miles of trave l (VMT) and

averag e speed. The current Dallas

- Fort
Worth (DFW) Expanded T ravel Demand model (DFX) covers the 12

- county Metropolitan Planning Area (MPA) of Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, Tarrant, and

Wise c ounties , plus Hill County . The VMT and speeds were estimated with the DFX using a link

- based methodology for each time period.

Dallas

- Fort Worth Expanded Travel Model
The source of VMT estimates for the

R edesignation Substitute Emission

I nventories for the four and nine
nonattainment counties is the network

based DFX executed by the North Central
Texas Council of Governments ( NCTCOG ) Transportation Department in the TransCAD

environment. TransCAD is a Geographic Information System (GIS)

- based commercial travel demand software package for transportation planning. The DFX supports federally required regional transp ortation planning efforts for the DFW region. Since 1974, NCTCOG has served as the Metropolitan Planning Organization ( MPO ) for the DFW area. The Transportation Department provides technical support and staff assistance to the Regional Transportation Cou ncil and its technical committees that comprise the MPO policy

making structure.

Multimodal Transportation Analysis Process The forecasting technique of the DFX is based
on a four

- step sequential process designed to
mod el travel behavior and predict travel demand at regional, sub

- area, or corridor
levels. These four steps are: Trip Generation, Trip Distribution, Mode Choice, and Roadway Assignment.

The roadwa y network developed for the

R edesignation Substitute E missions

Inventories contains over 30,000 unique segments constructed to replicate the transportation system of the coverage area.
For these inventories , the transportation network was developed for the years 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028

. Each facility link in the network has the following attributes:  Network N ode N umbers (defining the beginning and end of each link)

 Number of Operational Lanes in the
AM PM Peak and Off

- Peak Periods

 Functional Classification

 Divided/Undivided Roadway Code

 Type of Traffic Control At Link End

 Traffic Direction (One

- or Two

- Way)

 Length of Link

 Estimated Loaded Speeds In Each
Period

 Speed Limit

 Traffic Survey Zone

 Tolls

 Area Type

 Free

- Flow Speeds

 Hourly Capacities

 Truck Exclusion CodeONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 8

Every roadway segment in the network falls in
one of the functional classes of centroid connectors, freeways, principal arterials, minor arterials, collectors, ramps, frontage roads, and high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes

.

Trip purposes in the DFX are defined in one of four ways: home

- based work (HBW), which includes trips from home to work or work to home; home

- based non

- work (HNW), which

includes non

- work trips beginning or ending at home; non

- home based (NHB), which includes trips where home is neither the origin nor the

destin ation; and o ther trips that include all truck trips as well as all external

- internal,
internal

- external, and external

- external vehicle trips.

The model process begins with an estimate of
the socioeconomic variables for each zone. The data is organized by traffic survey zone (TSZ), the smallest zone size available in the

DFX. The data for each TSZ includes zone centroid; median household income; number of households; population; basic, retail, and service employment; and land area. There are
5,386 TSZs i n the model (5,303 internal zones plus 83 externals ), which is the level of detail retained in all four modeling steps. The Trip Generation Model generates the number of weekday person trips sent to and received from each zone. The Trip Distribution Mode l determines the trip interaction between each
zone and the rest of the zones in the MPA. The Mode Choice Model divides the person trips into two categories of transit and automobile trips. The Assignment Model loads the auto demand onto the roadway

netw ork, and the transit passenger trips onto
the transit network. Exhibit 2

. 1 depicts the
flowchart of the DFX process, commonly
referred to as the four

- step transportation modeling process. The DFX model application

is written by NCTCOG staff in the TransCAD script language known as the Geographic
Info rmation System Developer Kit ( GISDK )

, and i ntegrated with a user interface developed in visual basic programming language

.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 9 Exhibit 2

. 1 : DFW Expanded Travel Model Process Forecast Flowchart

LEGENDONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 10

Trip Generation Model
The Trip Generation Model is a computer program written in GISDK script language by NCTCOG staff. The Trip Generation Model converts the population and employment data into person trip ends and outputs the total number of trips produced by and

attracted to ea ch zone by trip purpose. The 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and

2028 population and employment forecasts were generated with the Disaggregate Residential Allocation Model/ E mployment
Alloc ation Model using travel times from the Roadway and Transit Assi gnment Steps

c onsistent with current planning practice.
The data can be seen in Exhibit 2

. 2

. The cross

- classified trip production model is stratified by income quartile and household
size. The allocation of TSZ households into the four income quartiles and six household size categories is based on distribution curves developed from the US Census Population data. The cross

- classified trip attraction model is stratified by area type, employment type (basic, retail, and service), and, for the case of the H BW trip purpose, income quartile. Area type designations are a function of the population and employment density of a

zone.

Exhibit 2. 2 : Socio

- e conomic Demographic Summary

Socio

- e conomic Demographic Summary By County

2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Population 6,381,750 6,616,981 6,979,143 7,345,926 7,735,614 8,138,777 8,425,438

Number of Households 2,321,348 2,399,456 2,518,598 2,638,704 2,765,501 2,896,288 2,988,707
Employment Types

Basic 992,680 1,016,468 1,047,494 1,076,044 1,105,453 1,136,319 1,158,627

Retail 566,421 478,639 447,911 467,615 488,520 510,351 525,789

Service 2,427,176 2,679,536 2,928,246 3,111,986 3,313,504 3,519,420 3,662,658
Total Employment 3,986,277 4,174,643 4,423,651 4,655,645 4,907,477 5,166,090 5,347,074

The Trip Generation Model allows the user to input trip rates and trip generation units associated with special generators such as regional shopping malls, hospitals, and colleges/universities. At the end of the generation process, HBW trips are balanced to the estimated trip attractions. All other purposes are balanced to the estimated trip productions in that zone. Because of the uniqueness of the NHB trips, zonal productions for NHB trips are later set equal to the attractions in a given zone.

The r egional trip productions and attractions are balanced for each trip purpose. The total trip attractions are balanced to the estimated trip productions in that zone for all other trip purposes

.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNATION SUBSTITUTE 11

Trip Distribution Model The Trip Distribution Model creates the production

- attraction person trip tables for each of the 5,386 m odel z ones. The Trip
Distribution Model uses the person trips produced by and attracted to each zone generated in the Trip Generation Model

, plus zone

- to

- zone minimum travel time information from the roadway network to estimate the number of person trips between each pair of zones for each trip purpose. All estimates of roadway travel times include a representation of the time needed for locating a parking space, paying for parking

, and walking from the car to the final destination. Estimates of these
terminal times were derived from NCTC OG’s 1994 Workplace Survey and 1996 Household Travel Survey. NCTCOG is in the process of updating the trip distribution model component based on 2009 household survey
data. The model uses a gamma

- based gravity formulation technique to estimate
the zone

- t o

- zone interchange of trips. Iterations of the gravity model are required
to ensure that the estimated number of zonal trips received equals the projected number of trip attractions generated by the Trip Generation Model.

Mode Choice Model
The Mode Choice Model determines the mode of travel and auto occupancy. Using the information regarding trip maker characteristics (e.g., income and auto ownership), roadway and transit system characteristics (e.g., in

- vehicle time and out

of

- vehicle time), and travel costs (e.g., auto operating costs, parking costs, and trans it fare), the model splits the trips among all applicable modes of travel. The model uses a nested logic formulation for all the trip

purposes. The “Other” trips are assumed to be vehicle trips with one occupant and are not processed by the Mode Choice M odel. The trip purposes of HBW, HNW, and NHB
have nine choice sets: D rive Alone, Two Occupant Shared Ride, Three + Occupancy Shared Ride, W alk A ccess to Bus S ervice,

A uto A ccess to Bus S ervice, W alk A ccess to
Rail S ervice, A uto A ccess to Rail S ervice,

W al k A ccess to Bus and Rail S ervice with

T ransfer, and A uto A ccess to Bus and Rail

S ervice with T ransfer.

Roadway Assignment The Roadway Assignment Model consists of simultaneous User Equilibrium Origin

Destination assignments of drive alone,
shared

- ride, and truck vehicle classes for three separate time

- of

- day periods (6:30 am

to 9:00 am Morning Peak, 3:00 pm to 6:30 pm Evenin g Peak, and the 18

- hour Off

Peak). The drive alone vehicle class is kept separate from the shared

- ride vehicle class so that HOV assignments can be performed as an integral part of an equilibrium assignment. Trucks are kept separate from the other vehicl e classes so that the
modeled truck volumes on all links can be tracked, and a separate value

- of

- time can be defined for them. A generalized cost path building technique is embedded within the model, in which the iterative calculation of

zone

- to

- zone impe dances are based on weighting factors applied to the capacity

restrained travel time, the distance (representing fuel cost), and tolls. As is standard with all User Equilibrium procedures, the TransCAD program uses anONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 12

iterative process to achieve a conver gent solution in which no travelers can improve their path by shifting routes. Since the
results of the three time

- of

- day assignments can be combined to obtain total weekday modeled volumes, validation checks can be performed with either time

- of

- day or

we ekday observed traffic counts.

Speed Estimation Procedur e The link speed in the DF X is estimated by dividing the length of the link by its loaded
travel time. The loaded travel time is the
sum of the free

- flow travel time, traffic congestion delay, and the delay caused by the traffic control devices (e.g., stop signs, yield signs, and s ignals). These three
elements of the loaded travel time are all functions of the link volume to capacity ratio. These functions are programmed in
the volume delay function ( VDF ) that is an essential input to the traffic assignment step.
The result of th e traffic assignment step is
the final time

- period

- specific average loaded speeds for each of the 30,000+ links in the roadway network. The VMT and vehicle hours of travel (VHT) for different time periods is included in the output as well to
obtain an ove rall average speed (VMT/VHT) for any desired length of time.

The free

- flow (uncongested) speed is defined as the speed limit. Free

- flow speeds are an important link at tribute since they are the base for calculating the congested (loaded) speeds in the Tr affic Assignment
step. The VDF in th e DFX uses a conical congestion delay form defined for each link functional classification, a non

- linear delay curve based on the Webster’s uniform delay formulation at signalized intersections, and a linear delay

curve for the stop and yield controlled approaches.

The volume

- delay curves were calibrated based on the available 2004 daily link traffic counts at more than 10,000 locations (collected by the Texas Department of Transportation [TxDOT] ), and the travel time

r uns along freeway and arterial corridors (performed by several consultants as part of other projects). The time

- of

- day link counts
were not available for the calibration of the
model in each time period.

Finally, all of the delay elements are added

to the uncongested travel time (based on
the free

- flow speeds) to produce the total loaded travel time on each roadway segment. Appendix E contains speeds by county for each hour of the day. The resulting congested DFX county speeds are
listed in Exhibit 2

. 3

.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 13 Exhibit 2.3 : Average Congested Speeds

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 36.18 35.75 36.39 35.14 34.61 32.99 32.68

Dallas 36.36 36.13 36.31 35.89 35.42 34.91 34.90

Denton 36.67 36.09 36.78 36.41 35.87 34.96 34.86

Ellis 45.71 45.35 46.87 46.33 45.91 44.91 44.54

Johnson 41.62 41.69 42.14 41.61 41.38 40.80 40.37

Kaufman 46.04 45.57 45.85 44.63 43.65 42.27 40.73

Parker 44.85 44.58 45.42 44.99 44.65 44.07 43.86

Rockwall 41.28 40.57 40.80 39.53 38.98 37.55 36.16

Tarrant 37.06 36.96 37.51 36.90 36.21 35.48 35.63

L ocal Street VMT The roadway network of the DFX does not
contain the details of local (residential) streets; h owever, a VMT estimate is possible based on data provided by the travel model.
Local street VMT is calculated for each county by multiplying the number of intrazonal trips by the intrazonal trip length and then adding the VMT from the zone

centroid connec tors. The temporal
distribution is assumed to be the same as for

non

- local streets.

Adjustments Seasonal, Daily, and Hourly Adjustments The vehicle activity data used for this analysis is representative of the summer

season

. This section outlines the process
used to convert the DFX non

- summer weekday activity to summer (June, July, and August) weekday activity

. Automatic Traffic Recorder (ATR) data

, collected by the Texas Department of Transportation ( TxDOT )

, is
used to calcu late the necessary conversions.

2012 ATR data was used for all analysis

years. Exhibit 2

. 4 lists the stations used in this analysi s and Exhibit 2. 5 is a map showing
the ATR locations

.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 14 Exhibit 2. 4 : ATR Stations

Station Name Road County

1 A301 ARLINGTON US0080 Tarrant

2 S016 JACKSBORO US0281 Jack

3 S017 DALLAS US0175 Dallas

4 S026 MCKINNEY SH0005 S Collin

5 S027 DENTON FM0428 S Denton

6 S040 CORSICANA IH0045 Navarro

7 S055 DALLAS SH0183 Dallas

8 S121 MCKINNEY US0075 Collin

9 S126 DALLAS IH035E Dallas

10 S130 FT. WORTH IH0030 Tarrant

11 S133 TERRELL US0080 Kaufman

12 S145 TERRELL IH0020 Kaufman

13 S148 DALLAS IH035E Dallas

15 S171 DALLAS IH0635 Dallas

17 S192 ARLINGTON IH0030 Tarrant

18 S193 FT. WORTH IH0820 Tarrant

19 S208 WEATHERFORD IH0020 Parker

20 S220 DALLAS IH0045 Dallas

24 S264 WISE SH0114 Wise

26 S292 ERATH US0067 Erath

28 S297 TARRANT IH0020 Tarrant

29 S337 WISE SH 114 Wise

30 S338 WISE USE 380 Wise

31 S339 WISE US0081 Wise

32 S340 HOOD US0377 Hood

33 S341 PALO PINTO IH0020 Palo PintoONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 15 Exhibit 2. 5 : ATR Station Map

S easonal and Daily Adjustments ATR data is organized into five day types: Sunday, Monday, Midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday), Friday, and Saturday. To adjust the representative

average school season weekday (ASWT ) data from the DFX to summer weekday, a n
A SWT to s ummer ATR conv ersion ratio is calculated. The summer portion of the ratio
includes traffic volumes recorded between June and August. Seasonal midweek (Tuesday

- Thursday) adjustments by area
type for DFX counties are listed in Exhibit

2

. 6

. 201 2 Midweek adjustment factors were used for all analysis years.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 16 Exhibit 2. 6 : Seasonal/Daily Adjustment Factors

County Type Midweek

2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 DFX Counties (A SWT to Summer) Core (Dallas/Tarrant) 0.991

Rural (Collin/Denton) 0.971

Perimeter (Other Counties) 1.030

Hourly Adjustments Daily volumes recorded for each of the five day types described above are aggregated by hour to determine the percent of daily traffic occurring during each hour, representing hourly vehicle activity estimates. The DFX county midweek is
further detailed b y utilizing a time period volume for aggregation, as opposed to the daily volumes provided for the other day types. These time periods correspond to the time periods utilized in the DFX where AM Peak is 6:30 am to 8:59 am, PM Peak is 3:00 pm to 6:29 pm, and Off

- Peak represents all other hours of the day (12:00 am to 6:29 am, 9:00 am to 2:59 pm, and 6:30 pm to 11:59 pm)

. Periods split by
mid

- hour times utilize an equal division of traffic recorded during the hour. Exhibit

2

. 7 shows the hourly adjustments for DFX
counties for the summer season.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 17 E xhibit 2. 7 : Hourly Adjustment Facto rs for the DFW Four

- C ounty and

Nine

- C ounty Modeling Domain s Sunday Monday Midweek Friday Saturday

12:00 am

– 12:59 am 2.15% 0.92% 0.95% 1.78% 2.15%

1:00 am

– 1:59 am 1.52% 0.63% 0.66% 1.19% 1.52%

2:00 am

– 2:59 am 1.34% 0.59% 0.63% 1.05% 1.34%

3:00 am

– 3:59 am 0.91% 0.64% 0.63% 0.81% 0.91%

4:00 am

– 4:59 am 0.78% 1.10% 1.00% 0.90% 0.78%

5:00 am

– 5:59 am 1.08% 2.72% 2.35% 1.52% 1.08%

6:00 am

– 6:29 am 0.81% 2.70% 2.33% 1.27% 0.81%

6:30 am

– 6:59 am 0.81% 2.70% 2.33% 1.27% 0.81%

7:00 am

– 7:59 am 2.15% 7.02% 6.11% 3.43% 2.15%

8:00 am

– 8:59 am 3.02% 6.18% 5.49% 4.37% 3.02%

9:00 am

– 9:59 am 4.28% 5.19% 4.84% 5.18% 4.28%

10:00 am

– 10:59 am 5.56% 4.96% 4.90% 5.89% 5.56%

11:00 am

– 11:59 am 6.20% 5.20% 5.29% 6.41% 6.20%
12:00 pm

– 12:59 pm 7.29% 5.42% 5.59% 6.70% 7.29%
1:00 pm

– 1:59 pm 7.70% 5.57% 5.82% 6.77% 7.70%
2:00 pm

– 2:59 pm 7.63% 5.95% 6.23% 6.77% 7.63%

3:00 pm – 3:59 pm 7.54% 6.68% 6.85% 6.77% 7.54%
4:00 pm

– 4:59 pm 7.48% 7.49% 7.29% 6.67% 7.48%
5:00 pm

– 5:59 pm 7.24% 7.81% 7.35% 6.50% 7.24%
6:00 pm

– 6:29 pm 3.25% 3.09% 3.16% 2.99% 3.25%
6:30 pm

– 6:59 pm 3.25% 3.09% 3.16% 2.99% 3.25%
7:00 pm

– 7:59 pm 5.39% 4.38% 4.96% 5.00% 5.39%
8:00 pm

– 8:59 pm 4.38% 3.41% 3.84% 4.14% 4.38%
9:00 pm

– 9:59 pm 3.65% 2.88% 3.32% 3.78% 3.65%
10:00 pm

– 10:59 pm 2.76% 2.20% 2.83% 3.32% 2.76%
11:00 pm

– 11:59 pm 1.85% 1.48% 2.09% 2.53% 1.85%

Model VMT Adjustments (HPMS v s. DFX) Consistent with previous emission inventory practices, the DFW MPO used TxDOT’s Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) data to adjust modeled VMT to

reflect the HPMS data for consistent reporting across the State. This adjustment is based on EPA’s guidance for emission inventory development. Prior to beginnin g the development of
these emission inventories for the

R edesignation Substitute State Implementation Plan , NCTCOG performed a

validation on the DFX model in order to meet the transportation conformity requirements per the Code of Federal Regulation s, whic h states, “ Network

- based travel models must be validated againstONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 18

observed counts (peak and off

- peak, if possible) for a base year that is not more than 10 years prior to the date of the conformity determination ” (40CFR

§ 93.122(b)(1)(i). The previous DFX

v alidation was performed in 2004, triggering an update to the validation. In order to be consistent with the planning assumptions incorporated in the 2014 Transportation Conformity , NCTCOG incorporated the updated DFX model
validation which is based on 20 10 demographics. Exhibit 2.8 shows the calculation performed to develop the new HPMS adjustment factor, 0.9703

, based on

a comparison of 2010 VMT for HPMS and

DFX.

Exhibit 2

. 8 : 2010 DFW and HPMS VMT Analysis

Model VMT Adjustment Factor

2010 VMT

HPMS (ASWT) 1 165,292,084

DFX (ASWT) 170,346,118 HPMS/DFX Ratio 0.9703

1 Annual Average Daily Traffic to ASWT conversion factor applied.

Non r ecurring Congestion According to a paper published in the January 1987 I nstitute of Transportation Engineers Journal by Jeffrey A. Lindley
entitled Urban Freeway Congestion: Quantification of the Problem and
Effectiveness of Potential Solutions

, congestion due to traffic incidents accounts for twice as much as congestion from
bottleneck situations. Con gestion due to incidents, or nonrecurring congestion, causes emissions not represented in the

VMT

- based calculations of the base emissions. In order to include these effects, the delay caused by nonrecurring congestion is added to the freeway travel

times and congestion delay due to bottlenecks to obtain an increased freeway travel time, which translates into reduced speed on freeway facilities. Reducing the freeway speeds increases volatile organic compounds ( VOC ) and oxides of nitrogen ( NO X ) emissions b y 4.9 percent, resulting in a factor of 1.049 for freeway VOC and NO X emissions in urban and rural counties. This is thought to be a conservative estimate of increased emissions due to nonrecurring congestion. Arterial street emissions are not significant ly affected by incidents
because alternate routes on the arterial system are generally available. Therefore, this factor is not applied to non

- freeway type facilities.

VMT Estimates
The VMT estimates are located in Exhibit 2

. 9
for all counties in the nonattainment area. VMT is summarized by 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 analysis year s for each county. Appendix E contains the VMT by county for each hour for all countie s.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 19 E xhibit 2

. 9 : Vehicle Miles of Travel (Miles/Day)

COUNTY 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 21,747,390 23,326,944 26,286,747 28,681,086 30,690,351 33,028,116 34,814,978

Dallas 72,537,006 75,096,046 80,630,330 84,495,542 87,760,530 91,354,976 95,690,598

Denton 17,698,236 18,800,191 20,960,059 23,077,361 24,809,322 26,220,152 28,168,734

Ellis 6,892,381 7,367,499 8,267,444 9,017,262 9,787,285 10,593,073 11,158,402

Johnson 5,150,957 5,617,011 6,180,756 6,562,122 6,977,379 7,478,108 7,863,226

Kaufman 5,816,886 6,254,501 7,027,324 7,688,720 8,303,318 9,031,372 9,682,475

Parker 4,681,023 5,045,329 5,651,650 6,108,185 6,577,402 6,983,513 7,309,865

Rockwall 2,346,421 2,483,024 2,730,556 2,933,304 3,086,717 3,325,878 3,577,270

Tarrant 46,985,504 49,681,164 54,781,427 57,550,132 60,592,476 63,743,735 67,044,186

Total 183,855,804 193,671,709 212,516,292 226,113,715 238,584,779 251,758,922 265,309,733ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 20

CHAPTER 3: EMISSION FACTOR ESTIMATION PR OCEDURE

Mobile Model and Input Parameters The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator version 2014 (MOVES2014)

, is used to develop 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 vehicle emission factors for this analysis. The emission factors are one component in the equation to determine vehicle emissions emitted from the region’s

on

- road vehicles. MOVES 2014 parameters used to develop these emissions inventories are listed in Exhibits 3

. 1 through 3

. 5 with the appropriate data source and/or methodology applied. Information listed applies to all counties unless otherwise specified. Referenced files identifying specific local data are included in Appendix

A

. MOVES 2014 input files utilizing these parameters and data for each c ounty are
includ ed in Appendix B

.

Exhibit 3

. 1: MOVES 2014 Modeled Pollutants

Command Input Parameter

Values and
Molecular Formulas Description

Pollutant NO X

, VOC, CO, CO 2 ,

PM 10 and P M 2.5 Oxides of Nitrogen (NO X ), Volatile Organic

Compounds (VOC), Carbon Monoxide (CO), Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 )

, and Particulate Matter with aerodynamic diameters equal to or less than 10 (PM 10 ) and 2.5 microns (PM 2.5 ).

Exhibit 3. 2: MOVES 2014 External Conditions

Command Input Parameter Values Description

Calendar Year 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 One

- hour and 1997 Eight

- hour Redesignation analysis years

Evaluation Month 7 Summer
Minimum/Maximum
Temperature N/A See Hourly Temperatures

Hourly Temperatures Average Summer County specific, provided by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality ( TCEQ )

Relative Humidity Average Summer County specific, provided by TCEQ

Barometric Pressure Average Summer County specific, provided by TCEQONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 21 Exhibit 3. 3: MOVES 2014 Input Parameters

Input Parameter Description Source

Source Type Population Input number of vehicles in geographic area to be

modeled for each vehicle. Texas Transportation Institute’s ( TTI ) MOVESpopulationBuild module is used to
convert MOVES2014 based Texas Department of Motor Vehicles ( TxDMV ) registration data for each county into

13 MOVES 2014 SUT population. 20 1 2 and 201 4

TxDMV registration
data

Source Type Age Distribution Input provides distribution of vehicle counts by age for

each calendar year and vehicle type. TxDMV registration data used to estimate age distribution of vehicle types up to 30 years. Distribution of Age fractions should sum up to 1.0 for all vehicle types for each analysis year. 20 1 2 and 201 4 TxDMV registration
data MOVES 2014
default used for bu ses

Vehicle Type

V ehicle Miles of
Travel County specific vehicle miles of travel ( VMT ) distributed

to six highway performance monitoring system Vehicle
types. Travel Model Output

Average Speed
Distribution Input average speed data specific to vehicle type, road

type, and time of day/type of day into 16 speed bins.

S um of speed distribution to all speed bins for each road type, vehicle type, and time/day type is 1.0. Travel Model Output

Road Type
Distribution (VMT Fractions) Input county specific VMT by road type. VMT fraction

distributed between the road type and must sum to 1.0 for each source type. Travel Model Output

Ramp Fraction Input county specific fraction of ramp driving time on

rural an d urban restricted roadway type

. Travel Model Output

Fuel Supply Input to assign existing fuels to counties, months, and

years, and to assign the associated market share for each
fuel. TCEQ, EPA Fuel Surveys and default

MOVES 2014 input
where local data
unavailable

Meteorology Regional average summer data on temperature and

humidity

. Local data from TCEQ

Fuel
Formulation Input county specific fuel properties in the MOVES 2014

database. TCEQ, EPA Fuel Surveys

, and default

MOVES 2014 input
where local data
unavailableONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 22 Exhibit 3.3: MOVES2014 Input Parameters (continued)

Input Parameter Description Source

Inspection and

Maintenance Coverage Input inspection and maintenance ( I/M ) coverage record

for each combination of pollutants, process, county, fuel type, regulatory class and model year are specified using this input. Local data from TCEQ

Fuel Engine Fraction / Diesel

Fraction (AVFT) Input fuel engine fractions (i.e. Gasoline vs. Diesel

Engines types in the vehicle population) for all vehicle
types. 20 12 and 201 4 TxDMV registration
data MOVES 2014 default used for light

duty vehicles and
busesONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 23 E xhibit 3. 4 : MOVES 2014 I/M Descriptive Inputs for Subject Counties

2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028

Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, and T arrant I/M D ata

I/M Program ID 20 21 22 23 24 Identifies

program number with

MOVES 2014
d atabase

Pollutant P rocess
ID 101, 102,

201, 202, 301, 302, 101, 102,

201, 202, 301, 302, 101, 102,

201, 202, 301, 302, 112 112

Source U se Type 21, 31, 32 21, 31, 32 52, 54 21, 31, 32 21, 31, 32

Begin Model

Year 1996 X X X 1996

End Model Year Y 1995 Y 1995 Y

I nspect Freq uency 1 1 1 1 1 Annual testing;

program specifications

T est Standards

Desc ription Exhaust

OBD
Check ASM

2525/501

5 Phase

- in

Cut Points Two

mode,

2500 RPM/Idle

Test Evaporative

Gas Cap
Check Evaporative

Gas Cap and
OBD Check

I/M Compliance 93.12% for source type 21, 91.26% for source type 31 and 86.6% for source type 32 * Expected compliance (%)

Source: TCEQ

ASM

– Acceleration Simulation Mode

RPM

– Revolutions Per Minute Note: Begin Model Year and End Model Year define the range of vehicle model years covered by I/M program. Begin Model Year, represented by “X” is calculated as YearID

– 2 and End Model Year, represented by “Y” is calculated as YearID

– 24.

* http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/documents/420b15007.pdfONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 24 E xhibit 3

. 5 : MOVES 2014 Fuel Properties

201 2 and 2014 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and

2028

Counties Core Perimeter All Core Perimeter All

Fuel Type Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel

Fuel
Formulation ID 9500 20670 9500 20670

Fuel Subtype ID 12 12 20 12 12 20

RVP 7 .00 7.8 0 0.00 7 .00 7.8 0 0.00

Sulfur Level 24.93 24.93 11 .00 10.00 10.00 11 .00

Ethanol Volume 9.69 9.69 9.69 9.69 9.69 0.00 Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE) Volume 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Ethyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (ETBE) Volume 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Tertiary Amyl Methyl Ether (TAME) Volume 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Aromatic

Content 13.76 13.76 13.76 13.76 13.76 0.00

Olefin Content 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 0.00

Benzene

Content 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.00

e200 48.32 48.32 48.32 48.32 48.32 0.00

e300 84.70 84.70 84.70 84.7 0 84.7 0 0.00

Vol To Wt Percent Oxy 3.38 3.38 3.38 3.38 3.38 0.00

BioDiesel Ester
Volume 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Cetane Index 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

PAH Content 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

T50 205.41 205.41 205.41 205.41 205.41 0.00

T90 329.31 329.31 329.31 329.31 329.31 0.00ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 25

Area Specific Calculations and Procedures

SourceUse T ype Distribution Sourceuse type age distributions are
calculated from the Texas Department of Transportation’s ( TxDOT ) vehicle registration data. July data sets of corresponding analysis years are utilized for light

- and heavy

- duty vehicle classes.

MOVES 2014 default values are used for bus categories. Light

- duty registration data for Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, R ockwall, Tarrant , and Wise c ounties are weighted for

comm ute patterns with the County

- to

County Worker Flow data from the 2006

- 2010 Census. Exhibit 3

. 6 identifies the percentages applied for this weighted adjustment. The TTI methodology is applied to the heavy

- duty vehicle data for
develo ping registration for all heavy

- duty
vehicles . These files are included in Appendix B.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 26 Exhibit 3

. 6 : County

- to

- C ounty Worker Flow

Resident County County of Employment

Collin Dallas Denton Ellis Hood Hunt Johnson Kaufman Parker Rockwall Tarrant Wise

Collin 65.4% 10.2% 5.1% 0.3% 0.1% 4.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 7.6% 0.9% 0.0%

Dallas 19.1% 66.0% 10.2% 10.7% 0.9% 3.9% 1.3% 15.8% 1.0% 23.6% 7.7% 0.7%

Denton 11.5% 7.9% 75.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 3.3% 3.1%

Ellis 0.2% 1.8% 0.2% 79.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2%

Hood 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 84.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4%

Hunt 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 84.3% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Johnson 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 3.5% 3.2% 0.0% 76.2% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 3.2% 0.7%

Kaufman 0.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 72.6% 0.0% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Parker 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 4.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 77.4% 0.0% 2.6% 5.9%

Rockwall 0.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 5.6% 0.1% 3.7% 0.0% 53.9% 0.1% 0.1%

Tarrant 2.0% 10.3% 7.4% 4.6% 6.2% 0.4% 17.5% 1.1% 14.1% 1.0% 80.3% 10.7%

Wise 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.8% 78.2%

Source: Ame rican Community Survey for the five

- year period between 2006 and 2010.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 27

Fuel Engine Fractions Diesel fractions for heavy

- duty vehicle categories utilized state and regional
summed data from July registration data for modeling 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 analysis years. July 201 2 registration data is used for modelin g 201 2 and July 2014 is used for modeling 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 analysis years. Light

- duty and bus categories utilize

MOVES 2014 default values. All diesel fraction files, included in Appendix B , list specific data used for this analysis.

MOVES2014 Emission Factors

MOVES 2014 emission factors for all the analysis years are repor ted in Appendix C

.

Adjustments Adjustments are applied to the emission factors in a post

- process step. Texas Low Emission Diesel ( Tx LED) NO X Adjustment is applied to the emission factors. VMT Mix adjustment is applied simultaneously with the emission calculation procedure discussed in Chapter 4.

Tx LED NOx Adjustment
The North Central Texas Council of Governments ( NCTCOG ) developed TxLED
factors for the Dallas

- Fort Worth ( DFW ) region for the analysis years 2012, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 using the

T CEQ Excel template ( ftp://amdaftp.tceq.texas.gov/pub/Mobile_ EI/Statewide/mvs/txled/ )

. The factors produced employed the TCEQ average
diesel source use types ( SUT ) NO X adjustments using 4.8 percent reductions for 2002 and later, and 6.2 percent
reductions fo r 2001 and earlier model years

NO X reductions are from the EPA Memorandum, Texas Low Emission Diesel (LED) Fuel Benefits , September 2001). The TxLED analyses employed 2011 and 201 4 regional age distribution factors for

MOVES 2014 runs. NO X , nitrogen oxide ( NO )

, and nitrog en dioxide ( NO 2 ) emissions for
Dallas County (DFW Area representative county) for all vehicle models years were produced for all analysis years.

MOVES 2014 emissions were extracted from
the MOVES 2014 output table. The
extracted emissions were used in the template to estimate TxLED factors for all diesel vehicles for the pollutants NO X , NO,
and NO 2

. Exhibit 3. 7 shows the TxLED
factors used.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 2 8 Exhibit 3

. 7 : Tx LED NO x Adjustments

Source Use Typ e Adjustment Factors

201 2 201 4 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Passenger Car 0.94161 0.94409 0.94843 0.95087 0.95153 0.95169 0.95162

Passenger Truck 0.94672 0.94749 0.94955 0.95020 0.95060 0.95062 0.95132 Light Commercial
Truck 0.94337 0.94400 0.94667 0.94817 0.94942 0.95000 0.95024

Intercity Bus 0.94173 0.94199 0.94258 0.94387 0.94505 0.94666 0.94819

Transit Bus 0.94196 0.94223 0.94282 0.94407 0.94547 0.94721 0.94892

School Bus 0.94207 0.94231 0.94280 0.94395 0.94527 0.94690 0.94863

Refuse Truck 0.94405 0.94465 0.94580 0.94739 0.94915 0.95083 0.95154 Single Unit Short

Haul Truck 0.94937 0.94970 0.95108 0.95154 0.95179 0.95194 0.95198 Single Unit Long

Haul Truck 0.94969 0.95006 0.95122 0.95157 0.95178 0.95191 0.95196

Motor Home 0.94402 0.94440 0.94534 0.94678 0.94790 0.94925 0.95042
Combination
Short

- Haul Truck 0.94644 0.94727 0.94887 0.94986 0.95086 0.95151 0.95177

Combination Long

- Haul Truck 0.94415 0.94495 0.94684 0.94809 0.94978 0.95081 0.95130

Source: NCTCOG

Sourceusetype Population

TxDOT registration data was used for developing sourceusetype population for
the DFW area . July 201 2 registration data is
used for developing 201 2 sourceusetype population and July 2014 registration date
is used for developing 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028 analysis years sourceusetype population

. For years 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2028, VMT growth rate was used to forecast sourceusetype population. All analysis sourceusetyp e population files are included in Appendix B.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 29

Exhibit 3 .8 : Population for the DFW Four

- C ounty and Nine

- C ounty Modeling Domain s

2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 585,036 620,227 686,428 724,097 764,527 807,551 850,693

Dallas 1,691,351 1,767,818 1,956,518 2,063,880 2,179,121 2,301,755 2,424,710

Denton 471,003 503,003 556,692 587,238 620,032 654,927 689,907

Ellis 126,882 125,962 139,404 147,055 155,266 164,004 172,763

Johnson 120,315 124,429 137,712 145,265 153,379 162,012 170,665

Kaufman 77,503 81,717 90,440 95,401 100,728 106,397 112,080

Parker 95,330 100,729 111,481 117,596 124,163 131,151 138,157

Rockwall 63,637 66,227 73,301 77,323 81,639 86,234 90,839

Tarrant 1,319,720 1,377,959 1,525,046 1,608,726 1,698,552 1,794,145 1,889,986

Four

- County
Total 4,067,110 4,269,007 4,724,684 4,983,941 5,262,232 5,558,378 5,855,296

Nine

- County
Total 4,550,777 4,768,071 5,277,022 5,566,581 5,877,407 6,208,176 6,539,800

Vehicle Miles of Travel Mix (or Fractions) (VMT Mix) VMT Mix is applied to the emission factors in a post

- process methodology. The VMT mix enables assignment of emission factors by vehicle type to a total volume to
calculate emissions on a link or functional
class. VMT mix is estima ted for rural and
urban freeways, arterials, collectors and high occupan cy vehicle lanes for three time periods : AM

- Peak, PM

- Peak and Off

- Peak.

Vehicle counts reported in the latest
available TxDOT Vehicle Classification Report provide a base for the dist ribution of vehicles by type and functional class for the freeway, arterial, and collector VMT Mixes.
The number of vehicles in each of the 12
axle

- based categories are combined into intermediate groups, and then disaggregated into MOVES 2014 SUT by applyi ng appropriate TxDOT registration data and/or MOVES 2014 defaults. Exhibit

3. 9 outlines this process. For each functional class, the values are aggregated across the total vehicles to
determine the fraction of vehicles from each class. Motorcycles are allocated as 0.1 percent for each functional class, subtracted from the Light

- Duty Gasoline Vehicles category.

This “temporary” VMT mix calculation is then redistributed using local truck and

non

- truck splits identified by the DFX
model. This process is performed for each
of the three functional classes and three time periods, where AM peak is 6:30 am to

8:59 am, PM peak is 3:00 pm to 6:29 pm, and Off

- Peak represents all other hours of the day. Motorcycles, light

- duty vehicles,
and two

- ax le light

- duty trucks are classified

as non

- trucks. Trucks and heavy

- duty vehicles with three axles or more, to include buses, are defined as trucks.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 30 Exhibit 3

. 9 : Vehicle Classification Process

Axle

- Based Vehicle
Classifications Intermediate

Groups/HPMS VtypeID Detailed Groups

C Passenger
Vehicles

PV Passenger Vehicles (20) Passenger Car Passenger Gasoline Vehicle

Passenger Diesel Vehicle

Motorcycle (MC)^

P 2 Axle, 4 Tire Single

Unit Light Duty Trucks (30) Passenger

Truck Passenger Gasoline Truck

Passenger Gasoline Truck

Light
Commercial
Truck Light Commercial Gasoline

Truck Light Commercial Gasoline
Truck

B Buses Bus Buses (40) School Bus Gasoline School Bus*

Diesel School Bus*

Transit Bus Gasoline Transit Bus*

Diesel Transit Bus*

Diesel Intercity Bus*

SU2 2 Axle, 6 Tire Single

Unit

Heavy

Duty
Trucks Single Unit

Heavy

- Duty Vehicles (50) Single Unit Short

H aul Truck Single Unit Short

- H aul

Gasoline Truck*

SU3 3 Axle, Single Unit Single Unit Short

- H aul
Diesel Truck*

SU4 4+ Axle, Single Unit
Single Unit Long

H aul Truck Single Unit Long

- H aul

Gasoline Truck*

SE4 3 or 4 Axle, Single
Trailer Single Unit Long

- H aul
Diesel Truck*ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 31 Exhibit 3. 9 : Vehicle Classification Process (continued)

Source: Dallas

- Fort Worth Ozone Nonattainment Area SIP Support, 2013, Texas Transportation Institute

. ^Motorcycles are allocated as 0.1 percent for each functional class, subtracted from the light

- duty vehicles

. *Categories calculated using MOVES 2014 defaults

. Axle

- Based Vehicle
Classifications Intermediate

Groups/HPMSVtypeID Detailed Groups

SE5 5 Axle, Single
Trailer

Heavy

Duty
Trucks Combination

Heavy

- Duty Vehicles (60) Combination Short

H aul Truck Combination Short

- H aul

Gasoline Truck*

SE6 6+ Axle, Single
Trailer

SD5 5 Axle,
Multi

Trailer Combination Short

- H aul
Diesel Truck*

SD6 6 Axle,
Multi
Trailer Combination Long

- haul Diesel Truck*

SD7 7+ Axle,
Multi
TrailerONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 32

CHAPTER 4: EMISSION CALCULATION PROCEDURE

Emissions estimates are calculated using

“ TTI emissions inventory estimation utilities using moves: movesutl” developed by the Texas Transportation Institute ( TTI ) . This
software combines vehicle activity and
emission factors to create emission

estimates. Exhibit 4

. 1 outlines the emission calculation modeling process that is used to
calculate the emissions estimates for the
Dallas

- Fort Worth ozone nonattainment

area. Rate per Distance, Rate per Vehicle, and Rate per Profile are applied for DFW Expanded Travel Demand Model ( DFX ) counties outlined in the following sections.

Exhibit 4.1: MOVES 2014 Emission Calculation Modeling Process

TRAVEL DEMAND MOVES 2014

POPULATION BUILD

MOVES2014 EPA MODEL

LINK LEVEL
VMT & SPEED POPULATION

BY SOURCE USE

TYPE EMISSION

RATES

LED NO X

ADJUSTMENT

FACTORS

ADJUSTED

EMISSION

RATES MOVES 2014

RATE ADJUST

MOVES 2014 EMISSION

CALCULATIONS

LINK LEVEL EMISSIONS

EMISSION SUMMARY TAB FILES BY POLLUTANT, BY FACILITY TYPE, BY TIMES OF DAY LEGEND

MODE L

INPUT/

OUTPUTONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 33

Emission Estimation
The DF X captures the vehicle activity information for each roadway segment in the transportation network in Collin, Dallas,
Denton, Ellis, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, and Tarrant c ount ies as discussed in Chapter 1

. Emis sion estimation using

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator version

2014 is broken down into three phases

.

Rate Per Distance
These i nclude emissions for the processes

occur ring while vehicles are operating ( i.e

. , running exhaust tire wear, brake wear, evaporative permeation, evaporative fuel vapor venting, evaporative fuel leaks, crankcase running exhaust, refueling displacement

, and refueling spillage )

. T he quantity of emissions estimated is directly
related to th e activity.

Application of emission factors to each of
these roadway network links requires assignment of vehicle miles of travel (VMT) mix, also known as VMT mix, and coordination of functional classes. First, an appropriate VMT mix is identified for each

link. For p rincipal and minor arterials, frontage roads , collectors, zone connect ors, and intrazonal functional, rural or urban

unr estricted access emission rates are applied depending on the area type the link
represents

. For Interstate, freeways

, and high occupancy vehicle lanes

, rural or urban

restricted access emission rate s are applied depending on the area type the link

represe nts. Exhibit 4. 2 shows the area type used to apply emission rates

. Li nks that fall under area typ e 1

- 4 are applied with an
urban restricted/ unrestricted emission rate and links that fall under area type 5 are applied with a rural restricted/unrestricted

emission rate

. Emission factors are specific to the speed iden tified on the roadway
segments.

Exhibit 4

. 2: DFX Area Type

Area Type Description Activity Density Range (Per Acre)

1 Central Business District > 125

2 Outer Business District 30

- 125

3 Urban Residential 7.5

- 30

4 Suburban Residential 1.8

- 7.5

5 Rural <1.8

Rate Per Vehicle These include emissions for most processes that occur while vehicles are stationary (i.e., start exhaust, start crankcase, permeation, liquid leaks, and extended idle (long haul combination trucks only).

Rate Per Profile
These include emissions from the vapor venting process when vehicles are stationary. Vapor venting emissions vary depending on activity and previous
temperatures. Rate per profile and rate per
vehicle

- based emissions are directly relate d to the source type population.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 34

CHAPTER 5: SUMMARY OF VEHICLE MILES OF TRAVEL, SPEED, AND E MISSIONS

Summary emissions results are available in this chapter.

Vehicle Miles of Travel Estimates The vehicle miles of travel (VMT) by county

is summarized in Exhibit 5.1. Appendix E

contains the summarized VMT estimates by the analysis year and time

- of

- day (TOD) for

the counties.

Speed Estimates Appendix E contains the summarized speeds by the analysis year and TOD for the

counties.

Emission Estimates The final county emission estimates for each analysis year are summarized in Exhibit 5

. 2

. Appendix G contains the detailed emissions by pollutant, day

, and TOD for all counties. Appendix D contains the detailed tab summary of VMT, speeds, and emissions for all counties by analysis year

, TOD, fun ctional class, and vehicle type.ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 35 Exhibit 5

. 1 : VMT by County

COUNTY 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 21,747,390 23,326,944 26,286,747 28,681,086 30,690,351 33,028,116 34,814,978

Dallas 72,537,006 75,096,046 80,630,330 84,495,542 87,760,530 91,354,976 95,690,598

Denton 17,698,236 18,800,191 20,960,059 23,077,361 24,809,322 26,220,152 28,168,734

Ellis 6,892,381 7,367,499 8,267,444 9,017,262 9,787,285 10,593,073 11,158,402

Johnson 5,150,957 5,617,011 6,180,756 6,562,122 6,977,379 7,478,108 7,863,226

Kaufman 5,816,886 6,254,501 7,027,324 7,688,720 8,303,318 9,031,372 9,682,475

Parker 4,681,023 5,045,329 5,651,650 6,108,185 6,577,402 6,983,513 7,309,865

Rockwall 2,346,421 2,483,024 2,730,556 2,933,304 3,086,717 3,325,878 3,577,270

Tarrant 46,985,504 49,681,164 54,781,427 57,550,132 60,592,476 63,743,735 67,044,186

Four

- County
Total 158,968,136 166,904,345 182,658,563 193,804,121 203,852,679 214,346,979 225,718,496

Nine

- County
Total 183,855,804 193,671,709 212,516,292 226,113,715 238,584,779 251,758,922 265,309,733

Exhibit 5.2: Final Emission Estimates by County

Oxid es of Nitrogen (NO X ) (tons/d ay)

Count y 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 22.06 19.37 13.06 9.77 7.90 6.48 5.58

Dallas 78.90 66.87 43.32 30.32 23.24 18.14 16.40

Denton 20.83 18.30 12.02 9.18 7.44 6.16 5.84

Ellis 13.83 12.50 9.92 8.05 7.35 6.71 6.62

Johnson 7.83 7.16 5.29 4.13 3.57 3.13 3.03

Kaufman 10.65 9.66 7.48 6.17 5.47 5.01 4.97

Parker 9.74 8.85 7.56 6.37 5.75 5.32 5.26

Rockwall 3.49 3.07 2.20 1.56 1.29 1.11 1.05

Tarrant 49.41 42.88 28.35 20.40 15.86 12.54 11.00

T otal 216.74 188.65 129.19 95.95 77.87 64.62 59.75ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 36 Exhibit 5.2 : Final Emission Estimates by County (continued)

Nitrogen Oxide (NO) (tons/d ay)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 19.68 17.12 11.29 8.22 6.42 5.01 4.28

Dallas 70.43 59.16 37.58 25.76 19.17 14.29 12.71

Denton 18.56 16.11 10.31 7.62 5.92 4.65 4.31

Ellis 12.30 10.89 8.22 6.32 5.41 4.64 4.45

Johnson 6.98 6.29 4.47 3.34 2.73 2.25 2.12

Kaufman 9.44 8.40 6.18 4.83 4.03 3.46 3.34

Parker 8.65 7.69 6.24 4.98 4.23 3.68 3.54

Rockwall 3.11 2.69 1.86 1.28 1.00 0.81 0.75

Tarrant 44.19 38.03 24.70 17.39 13.15 9.95 8.66

T otal 193.33 166.38 110.85 79.73 62.07 48.75 44.16

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO 2 ) (tons/d ay)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 2.21 2.10 1.67 1.48 1.42 1.42 1.26

Dallas 7.84 7.17 5.39 4.32 3.89 3.70 3.56

Denton 2.10 2.04 1.61 1.49 1.45 1.46 1.49

Ellis 1.43 1.51 1.62 1.66 1.88 2.03 2.12

Johnson 0.78 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.81 0.86 0.89

Kaufman 1.12 1.19 1.24 1.29 1.40 1.51 1.58

Parker 1.02 1.09 1.26 1.34 1.47 1.59 1.67

Rockwall 0.35 0.35 0.32 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.29

Tarrant 4.83 4.51 3.42 2.85 2.58 2.49 2.25

Total 21.68 20.76 17.30 15.46 15.17 15.35 15.11ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 37 Exhibit 5.2 : Final Emission Estimates by County (continued)

Vol atile Organic Compounds (VOC) (tons/d ay)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 10.22 9.41 7.50 6.44 5.77 5.02 4.57

Dallas 35.18 31.37 24.15 20.04 17.68 15.22 14.03

Denton 8.74 8.13 6.34 5.44 4.85 4.21 3.91

Ellis 3.84 3.50 2.79 2.38 2.16 1.94 1.86

Johnson 2.87 2.67 2.11 1.79 1.59 1.39 1.31

Kaufman 2.83 2.62 2.05 1.76 1.57 1.41 1.37

Parker 2.68 2.50 2.08 1.82 1.63 1.47 1.42

Rockwall 1.39 1.26 1.00 0.82 0.73 0.64 0.60

Tarrant 24.41 22.29 17.60 14.89 13.22 11.41 10.43

Total 92.17 83.75 65.62 55.36 49.21 42.70 39.49

Carbon Monoxide (CO) (tons/d ay)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 126.76 123.97 115.29 109.04 101.58 89.02 81.25

Dallas 473.43 446.79 397.80 365.15 331.65 285.93 263.13

Denton 102.10 99.84 90.16 86.11 79.35 68.48 63.63

Ellis 39.65 38.80 35.43 33.57 31.75 28.41 26.61

Johnson 31.75 31.62 27.99 25.66 23.66 20.86 19.35

Kaufman 32.00 31.58 28.82 27.25 25.74 23.20 22.16

Parker 31.87 31.22 28.17 25.96 24.18 21.14 19.67

Rockwall 14.16 13.62 12.16 11.14 10.21 9.02 8.56

Tarrant 309.81 300.03 274.36 252.78 231.75 202.48 189.69

Total 1,161.55 1,117.46 1,010.18 936.65 859.88 748.53 694.05ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 38 Exhibit 5.2 : Final Emission Estimates by County (continued)

Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) (tons/day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 11,768 12,399 13,272 13,654 13,549 13,531 13,523

Dallas 39,784 40,474 41,700 41,232 39,806 38,270 38,069

Denton 9,898 10,341 10,854 11,205 11,087 10,841 11,045

Ellis 4,356 4,598 5,044 5,263 5,386 5,480 5,565

Johnson 3,005 3,217 3,426 3,461 3,452 3,455 3,483

Kaufman 3,487 3,695 4,026 4,194 4,257 4,339 4,474

Parker 3,011 3,180 3,467 3,579 3,636 3,659 3,700

Rockwall 1,328 1,385 1,461 1,475 1,452 1,454 1,495

Tarrant 25,505 26,418 27,805 27,518 26,867 26,101 26,022

Total 102,142 105,707 111,055 111,582 109,491 107,128 107,375

Particulate Matter less than 2.5 (PM 2.5 ) (tons/day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 0.63 0.55 0.39 0.31 0.24 0.21 0.19

Dallas 2.39 1.98 1.37 1.04 0.78 0.65 0.59

Denton 0.62 0.53 0.35 0.28 0.21 0.17 0.16

Ellis 0.43 0.37 0.26 0.20 0.14 0.12 0.11

Johnson 0.23 0.20 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.07 0.06

Kaufman 0.32 0.27 0.19 0.15 0.11 0.09 0.08

Parker 0.30 0.26 0.18 0.14 0.10 0.08 0.08

Rockwall 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02

Tarrant 1.46 1.24 0.88 0.68 0.52 0.44 0.40

Total 6.48 5.48 3.83 2.94 2.22 1.85 1.68ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 39 Exhibit 5.2 : Final Emission Estimates by County (continued)

Particulate Matter less than 10 (PM 10 ) (tons/day)

County 2012 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2028

Collin 0.69 0.60 0.43 0.34 0.27 0.23 0.21

Dallas 2.62 2.17 1.51 1.15 0.87 0.72 0.65

Denton 0.68 0.58 0.39 0.31 0.23 0.19 0.18

Ellis 0.47 0.40 0.28 0.22 0.16 0.13 0.12

Johnson 0.25 0.22 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.07

Kaufman 0.34 0.30 0.21 0.16 0.12 0.10 0.09

Parker 0.33 0.28 0.20 0.15 0.11 0.09 0.08

Rockwall 0.11 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03

Tarrant 1.61 1.36 0.97 0.75 0.58 0.49 0.45

Total 7.10 6.01 4.21 3.24 2.46 2.06 1.87ONE

- HOUR OZONE AND 1997 8

- HOUR OZONE REDESIGNA TION SUBSTITUTE 40

CHAPTER 6: LIST OF A PPENDICES

Appendix A: MOVES2014 External Files

Appendix B: MOVES2014 Inputs and Outputs

Appendix C: MOVES2014 Emission Factors

Appendix D: Tab Summary Files

Appendix E: Emission, VMT, and Speed Estimates

Appendix F: XML

Appendix G: R edesignation Substitute Emission Inventory Summary Tables

Appendix H: Project Quality Control Report