Appendix D

Proposed Updates to the Transportation Conformity B udgets Identified in

the San Joaquin Valley 2007 Ozone Plan.(This page intentionally left blank)May 14, 2007 Appendix D 1 Appendix D

Proposed Updates to the Transportation Conformity B udgets Identified in

the San Joaquin Valley 2007 Ozone Plan.

The transportation conformity budgets established i n the San Joaquin Valley 2007 Ozone Plan were created using the EMFAC2007 on -road mobile source emissions forecasting model. EMFAC2007 allows user s to input the most up-todate planning estimates for a wide array of input p arameters used to drive the model, via a user-friendly interface. These input parameters include vehicle travel activity, vehicle population data, and vehic le speed profile data. If specific data are not provided, the EMFAC2007 model provides default data specific to the region for which the estimates are being genera ted.

Summary of Update: Madera County

Years Affected 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2023.

Reason for update:

As discussed in Chapter 9 of the 2007 Ozone Plan, t he Madera County transportation conformity budgets were developed us ing EMFAC2007 default vehicle activity data, which reflects data previous ly submitted by the Madera County MPO. Madera County recently provided more r efined vehicle activity; however, this updated activity data was not availab le in time for inclusion in the District Final draft 2007 Ozone Plan. Subsequently , the MPO has requested that ARB update the conformity budgets for Madera County to reflect this refined data. Table 1 lists the vehicle miles traveled (VM T) activity and population activity that underlie this update. Table 2 lists the 2007 Ozone Plan transportation conformity budgets for Madera County as well as the proposed updates to the transportation conformity budget whi ch, upon Air Resource Board approval, will replace those included in the San Jo aquin Valley 2007 Ozone Plan.May 14, 2007 Appendix D 2 Table 1 Updated Madera County On-road Vehicle Activity Proj ections (x 1,000)

Year EMFAC2007

Default

Vehicle

Travel (VMT) Updated

Madera

Vehicle

Travel (VMT) EMFAC2007

Default

Vehicle Population Updated

Madera

Vehicle Population

2008 5,059 5,065 112 112

2011 5,578 5,558 124 123

2014 6,107 6,022 134 132

2017 6,711 6,673 145 144

2020 7,327 7,324 156 156

2023 7,728 7,890 166 170

Table 2 Updated On-road Transportation Conformity Budgets f or Madera County (Summer Planning tons per day)

ROG NOx

Year 2007 Ozone

Plan Updated

Activity Data 2007 Ozone Updated Activity Data

2008 4.5 4.4 14.6 14.6

2011 3.7 3.7 12.2 12.2

2014 3.1 3.1 9.8 9.7

2017 2.6 2.6 7.8 7.7

2020 1.9 1.9 4.8 4.8

2023 1.9 1.9 4.4 4.5

Summary of Update: San Joaquin County

Years Affected

2008.

Reason for Update

While reviewing the San Joaquin Valley 2007 Ozone P lan, ARB staff, working with the District and the transportation planning a gency staffs, identified a technical error in the input file used to generate the 2008 transportation conformity budgets. The vehicle speed profile inpu t file only included updates for passenger car speed for light-duty automobiles. Li ght- and medium-duty trucks and motorcycles all relied on EMFAC2007 defaults fo r these categories, ratherMay 14, 2007 Appendix D 3

than the updates provided by the San Joaquin County Council of Governments. Table 3 lists the corrected 2008 transportation con formity budget for San Joaquin County.

Table 3

Updated On-road Transportation Conformity Budgets f or

San Joaquin County (Summer Planning tons per day)

ROG NOx

Year 2007 Ozone

Plan Updated 2007 Ozone Updated

2008 13.9 13.9 39.9 40.0

Recommendations

ARB staff proposes to update the Madera County tran sportation conformity budgets for 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2023 in the San Joaquin Valley 2007 Ozone Plan to include the updated activity dat a.

ARB staff proposes to update the 2008 San Joaquin C ounty transportation conformity budgets in the San Joaquin Valley 2007 O zone Plan to reflect vehicle speed data consistent with San Joaquin County’s tra nsportation data submitted for the 8-hour Ozone SIP development.

Additional data is available on-line at:

http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2007sip/2007sip. htm