# FAPRI

- CARD Model Solution

FAPRI Staff

# Econometric Models of Agricultural Markets

U.S. and International Models

Crops Livestock Dairy Aggregate


### Measures Other

Cattle

- Beef

Swine
- Pork Cheese

Poultry Butter



### Non
- Fat Dry

Milk Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

Rice

Cotton 

### Sugar Government
Costs

Cash Receipts

Production Exp.

Farm Income Consumer

Food Exp Value of Ag Exports 

### Barley Sorghum 

### Federal Crop
Insurance Turkey

Eggs

Biomass Biofuel

# Country Coverage by Commodity

# Country Coverage by Commodity

# Country Coverage by Commodity

# Country Coverage by Commodity

# Country Coverage by Commodity

# Country Coverage by Commodity

# Basic Crop Sector Model

International Prices

Beginning Stocks

Yield

Area

Domestic Supply Price Transmission

Feed Demand Food Demand

Ending Stocks Other Demand

Domestic Demand Net Exports Exports ImportsInternational Prices

Oil Supply Crush Demand

Domestic Supply Price Transmission

Net Exports Exports Imports Meal Supply Food Demand

Ending Stocks

Domestic Demand Feed Demand

Industrial Demand 

# Basic Oilseed Complex Model

# Basic Livestock Sector Model

International Prices Beginning Inventory

Breeding Stock

Births

Domestic Supply Market

- Clearing Price Slaughter Food Demand

Ending Stocks

Domestic Demand Net Exports Exports Imports

Ending Inventory

# Beef

- Cattle Biological Process

# Beef

- Cattle Biological Process continued

# Pork

- Swine Biological Process

Sow Slaughter

Gilt/Barrow Slaughter Carcass

Weight Pork Production Pork Supply Pork Disappearance Export Import

Beginning Stocks Ending Stocks

# Pork

- Swine Biological Process

Breeding Addition

Pig Crop Breeding

Inventory

Death
Gilt/Barrow Slaughter Liveweight Gilt/Barrow Liveweight Pork Production Sow Slaughter Liveweight Sow

Gilt/Barrow Inventory

Export Import

# Dairy Product Supply

Milk Used For Cheese Fluid Demand Cow

Inventory

Raw Milk

Supply

Other Milk Consumption

Milk Used For NFD Milk Yield

Per Cow

Milk Used For WMP Manufacturing Demand

Cheese Supply NFD

Production WMP

Production Butter Supply

# Basic Biofuel Sector Model

International Prices Beginning Inventory

Capacity

Capacity Utilization

Domestic Supply Market

- Clearing Price Production Voluntary E
- 10

Ending Stocks

Domestic Demand Net Exports Exports Imports

E
- 85 Additive

# Model Solution

# Equilibrium price search procedure

where:

p is price

i is iteration index j is commodity index

D is demand

S is supply

 > 0 is adjustment factor

in equilibrium

D 

### S

Q P

P i 

### P’ i



### P e i

# Model Interactions

# Land Allocation Structure in Brazil

Total Ag Area



## Grain Area Oilseed Area Others Area

Ag NR

Grain NR

Other NR Oilseeds NR

Pasture NR 

## Pasture

# Yield Specification in the EU

 Intensification

• Allocative efficiency adjustment (short

- run 0.013)

– Current revenue

- cost ratio

• Technical efficiency adjustment (long

- run 0.061)

– Moving average revenue

- cost 

### ratio



##  Extensification

• Yield drag with area expansion (

- 0.023) Y

X F



### A

1 3

2 

# . 

# . . F’ 

# . 4

# DDGS Specification

 Determining Variables

• Adoption

– 0.59, 0.46, 0.21, 1.00



### • Maximum Inclusion Rate

– 50, 25, 25, 30

• Displacement Rate

– (1.196, 0) and (0.731, 0.633)



##  Efficiency gains impact

• Gain in ruminants

• No gain in monogastrics 

##  Model Impact

• Cost adjustment



### • Substitution of feedgrains

• Substitution of oilmeals

# Thank You!