"The Environment on the Intelligence 

Agenda"

World Affairs Council, Los Angeles, California 

John Deutch

Director of Central Intelligence 

25 July 1996 

The environment is an important part of the Intelligence Community agenda. Today I would like 

to explain what we mean by the term environmental intelligence, why the Intelligence 

Community is involved in this work, and why our involvement is, important for citizens of the 

United States and the world. I also want to demonstrate that environmental intelligence is not a 

new or expensive area of endeavor for the Intelligence Community.

The Intelligence Community's job is to ensure that our senior policymakers and military 

commanders have objective information that will allow them to make better decisions. Through 

our collection and analytic effort, we compile intelligence reports that give our country's 

leadership insight into how events in all parts of the world will unfold and how these events will 

affect our national security.

Environmental trends, both natural and man-made, are among the underlying forces that affect a 

nation's economy, its social stability, its behavior in world markets, and its attitude toward 

neighbors.

I emphasize that environment is one factor. It would be foolish, for example, to attribute conflicts 

in Somalia, Ethiopia, or Haiti to environmental causes alone. It would be foolhardy, however, 

not to take into consideration that the land in each of these states is exploited in a manner that 

can no longer support growing populations.

Environmental degradation, encroaching deserts, erosion, and overfarming destroy vast tracts of 

arable land. This forces people from their homes and creates tensions between ethnic and 

political groups as competition for scarce resources increases. There is an essential connection 

between environmental degradation, population growth, and poverty that regional analysts must 

take into account.

National reconnaissance systems that track the movement of tanks through the desert, can, at the 

same time, track the movement of the desert itself, see the sand closing in on formerly productive 

fields or hillsides laid bare by deforestation and erosion. Satellite systems allow us to quickly 

assess the magnitude and severity of damage. Adding this environmental dimension to traditional 

political, economic, and military analysis enhances our ability to alert policymakers to potential 

instability, conflict, or human disaster and to identify situations which may draw in American 

involvement.
Some events have already dictated that environmental issues be included in our intelligence 

agenda. When Moscow initially issued misleading information about the accident at the 

Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, US leaders turned to the Intelligence Community to assess the 

damage and its impact on the former Soviet Union and neighboring countries.

During the Gulf War, when Saddam Hussein used ecological destruction as a weapon, 

policymakers and the military called on the Intelligence Community to track the movement of 

smoke from burning oilfields and the flow of oil released into the gulf. They asked whether

damage to Iraq's Tuwaitha nuclear complex posed a danger to troops and local population.

In each of these cases, our answer to these questions was not and could not be, "the environment 

is not an intelligence issue," Our answers were classic intelligence: analysis based on our data 

from collection systems and open sources. We were able to assess the magnitude of the 

Chernobyl accident; we were able to tell US troops how to avoid lethal hydrogen sulfide from oil 

fires; and we were able to tell military planners that damage to the reactor was not a threat.

I would like to emphasize that the environment is not a new issue for the Intelligence 

Community. For years we have devoted resources to understanding environmental issues. Much 

of the work that now falls under the environmental label used to be done under other names--

geography, resource issues, or research.

For example, we have long used satellite imagery to estimate crop size in North Korea and 

elsewhere. This allowed us to forecast shortages that might lead to instability and to determine 

the amount of agricultural products a nation would need to import--information valuable to US 

Department of Agriculture and to America's farmers. We have also tracked world availability of 

natural resources, such as oil, gas, and minerals.

We have for many years provided the military with information on terrain and local resources. 

As our forces embark on military, peacekeeping, and humanitarian operations in remote and 

unfamiliar territory, they will need even better information on environmental factors that could 

affect their health and safety and their ability to conduct operations.

Diplomacy will be ever more concerned with the global debate over environmental issues. As 

Secretary of State Christopher said in April, "our ability to advance our global interests is 

inextricably linked to how we manage the Earth's natural resources." He emphasized that we 

must put environment "in the mainstream of American foreign policy."

Intelligence has long supported diplomacy in this area, particularly in regard to key international 

environmental treaties and agreements. Here I would draw an analogy to the role of intelligence 

in negotiating the arms control treaties. Such treaties could not have been signed and ratified 

without intelligence to monitor compliance.

Likewise, the Intelligence Community monitors compliance with environmental treaties, such as 

the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Stratospheric Ozone Layer and the London 

Convention that regulates the dumping at sea of radioactive and other wastes. Further, 

intelligence support should begin with the negotiation process, so that US diplomats have the 
benefit of the best available information in framing effective and enforceable treaties in the 

future.

Environmental intelligence will also be a part of our support to economic policymakers. They 

need to know, for example, whether or not foreign competitors are gaining a competitive 

advantage over American business by ignoring environmental regulations. Intelligence can 

provide valuable information.

In short, the demand on the Intelligence Community for information on environmental issues 

will grow. As the world population expands and resources such as clean water and arable land 

become more scarce, it will become increasingly likely that activities of one country will have an 

environmental impact that goes beyond its borders. US policymakers will need warning on issues 

that are likely to affect US interests and regional stability.

Maintaining a capability for environmental intelligence will allow us to answer important 

questions that are likely to come from our consumers in the future. For example, China's rapidly 

growing population and booming economy will translate into a tremendous increase in demand 

for the world's natural resources, including oil and food, What impact will this have on world 

markets? As in the past, we must be prepared to answer such questions.

We should also be willing to provide data from our collection systems to help experts answer 

less traditional questions, for example: what impact will increased burning of fossil fuel have on 

the global environment?

As I have mentioned, the Intelligence Community has unique assets, including satellites, sensors, 

and remote sensing expertise that can contribute a wealth of information on the environment to 

the scientific community. We also have mechanisms in place to share that information with 

outside experts. This effort will add significantly to our nation's capability to anticipate 

environmental crises.

In 1991, then-Senator Gore urged the Intelligence Community to create a task force to explore 

ways that intelligence assets could be tapped to support environmental research. That initiative 

led to a partnership between the Intelligence and scientific communities that has proven to be 

extraordinarily productive for both parties.

The Environmental Task Force found that data collected by the Intelligence Community from 

satellites and other means can fill critical information gaps for the environmental science 

community. Furthermore, these data can be handed over for study without revealing information 

about sources and methods.

For example, imagery from the earliest intelligence satellites--which were launched long before 

commercial systems--can show scientists how desert boundaries, vegetation, and polar ice have 

changed over time. These historical images, which have now been declassified, provide valuable 

indicators of regional and global climate change.
Some of the scientists who participated in the Environmental Task force now make up a group 

called MEDEA. MEDEA works with the Intelligence Community to establish what we call the 

"Global Fiducials Program." Under this initiative, during the next decade we will periodically 

image selected sites of environmental significance. This will give scientists an ongoing record of 

changes in the earth that will improve their understanding of environmental processes. More 

importantly, it will greatly enhance their ability to provide strategic warning of potentially 

catastrophic threats to the health and welfare of our citizens.

At the same time, we do not see the Intelligence Community becoming a center of environmental 

science expertise or directly sponsoring research in that area. In this case, our job is to acquire 

the data and allow the scientific community to use them. Their work, quite properly, is sponsored 

by others, such as the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration, National Aeronautics and Space Administration and academic institutions. We 

will continue to work with environmental experts to assure that their knowledge is brought to 

bear on what data we collect or retrieve from our considerable archives.

Our interaction with MEDEA is not only valuable for the environmental community, it also has 

had direct benefits for the Intelligence Community. MEDEA has worked closely with our 

analysts to develop techniques that have enhanced our ability to collect and interpret data from 

our collection systems.

Combining Intelligence Community data and expertise with knowledge from the scientific 

community can produce a better intelligence product for policymakers. Scientists from MEDEA 

worked with our analysts to respond to requests for information on environmental issues and 

problems--such as a series of oil spills in the Komi region of Russia. The Komi oil spill is just 

one example of how intelligence satellites and sensors can provide valuable information quickly 

after a natural or man-made disaster. In this case we could tell that large amounts of oil were not 

getting into the Arctic rivers.

In the United States, the Intelligence Community provides support to the Federal Emergency 

Management Agency and other civil agencies when there is a natural disaster. Using data from a 

variety of sources, within hours after a disaster strikes we can assess and report the nature and 

scope of the damage--conditions of roads, airports and hospitals; and the status of potential 

secondary threats such as dams and nuclear facilities. Here I would like to make two points:

• First, we only provide this support upon request, To image US territory, we must first get 

permission. 

• Second, we provide unclassified products generated from classified information. We have 

a Disaster Response Team that can quickly produce unclassified maps and diagrams that 

show the damage resulting from an earthquake, fire, flood, hurricane, oil spill, or volcanic 

eruption. 

To give you a recent example of how well this system works, just a few weeks ago (June 5), the 

US Forest Service requested our help in tracking the wildfires raging in Alaska. In this instance, 

they did not have enough planes to adequately chart the extent of the fires. Within 24 hours of 

the initial request, we delivered a map depicting the fire perimeter, smoldering fires, and the 
most intense blazes. This information was more comprehensive and detailed than data collected 

from overflights by civil aircraft and it was also available much more quickly than would have 

otherwise been possible.

We can also use our capabilities to provide warning before a disaster strikes. And we do share 

this information with foreign governments. For example, when a volcano on the Caribbean 

Island of Montserrat awakened in 1995, we monitored significant changes and alerted U.S. and 

British West Indies aid and military authorities so that they could prepare for a possible 

evacuation of the island's residents. Recently we noted a change within the volcano crater--a 

fissure had opened up, indicating that the risk of an eruption had increased dramatically. We 

quickly sent out a warning that allowed authorities on Montserrat to evacuate 4,000 people to a 

less dangerous area of the island.

These activities lie outside our traditional intelligence mission, but we believe it is important to 

provide aid when the capabilities would not otherwise be available. This effort costs us very 

little, and yields tremendous benefits to relief agencies, disaster victims, and potential victims 

whose lives could be saved by a timely warning.

Vice President Gore has been a leader in advocating the use of intelligence information to 

improve environmental knowledge on an international level, for example to better monitor oil 

spills and chemical waste streams through international water ways.

The US-Russian joint Commission on Economic and Technological Cooperation--the GoreChernomyrdin Commission--has established a productive exchange of information between the 

US and Russia.

This exchange has brought us unique and valuable data from Russia's intelligence programs. For 

example, the Russians have collected extensive data on the Arctic Ocean. This information is 

critical to our understanding of oceanographic and atmospheric processes, which are, in turn, 

critical to our ability to predict global climate change. Together with Russia, we have produced a 

CD-ROM atlas of the Arctic Ocean. It contains more than two million individual observations 

collected from 1948 to 1993 by Russian drifting stations, ice breakers, and airborne expeditions, 

as well as observations from US buoys. This once-restricted data will now be available on the 

Internet through the World Wide Web and will more than double the scientific holdings of 

oceanographic data available to T-TS scientists.

The Arctic data are not only critical to scientific studies of climate change. They can also help us 

chart the movement of pollutants. The great rivers of Russia flow north into the Arctic. With 

them, they carry a heavy burden of waste from Russian industry, including chemicals, heavy 

metals, and organics, as well as radionuclides from Russia's defense programs. For example, 3 

million curies of radioactive waste from Chelyabinsk, dumped into the Techa River years ago, 

have migrated to the Arctic Ocean, over 1,500 kilometers from the plant, Russian oceanographic 

data can help them and us to determine where radioactive materials and pollutants will travel 

once they reach the Arctic and whether they will affect US and Canadian waters.
Early this year, Russia and the United States exchanged declassified imagery-derived diagrams 

of environmental damage over a 25-year period at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida and Yeysk 

Airbase in southwestern Russia. This ongoing exchange will help both countries clean up their 

toxic and radioactive sites. The techniques used to create these maps could help us identify 

potential sources of contamination in the future. Such information-sharing has proven a low-cost 

and highly effective way to build good will and strengthen international relationships. We should 

seek new opportunities to share information with other countries.

I would like to make one more key point about our work on environmental issues--the costs are 

small and the potential benefits enormous. The resources allocated to environmental intelligence 

are modest, perhaps one tenth of a percent of the intelligence budget for collection and analysis. 

We are using intelligence capabilities that are already in place. This important work requires no 

new capital investments.

Nor does environmental intelligence require us to divert collection systems from our priority 

targets or get involved in areas where we do not belong. The imaging of sites under the Global 

Fiducials program, for example, can be done during non-peak hours of satellite use. It will not 

interfere with collection against our highest priority targets, including the proliferation of 

weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, drug trafficking, and the activities of rogue states.

In sum, the environment will continue to have an important place on the US intelligence agenda.

• Environmental factors influence the internal and external political, economic, and 

military actions of nations important to our national security. 

• Our intelligence customers, including the policy and military communities, need--and ask 

for--support on environmental issues and problems. 

• The Intelligence Community has unique technical collection resources and analytic 

expertise that can fill critical information gaps for environmental scientists or help relief 

agencies cope with natural disasters. 

• Through a productive partnership with the scientific community, we can provide strategic 

warning of environmental hazards that could endanger our health and welfare. 

• These activities do not threaten our traditional missions. 

• The vital work I have described requires only a modest commitment of resources. 

• I think it would be short-sighted for us to ignore environmental issues as we seek to 

understand and forecast developments in the post-Cold War world and identify threats to 

our national welfare. just as Secretary Christopher promised "to put environmental issues 

in the mainstream of American Foreign policy," I intend to make sure that Environmental 

Intelligence remains in the mainstream of US intelligence activities. Even in times of 

declining budgets we will support policymakers and the military as they address these 

important environmental issues.