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November 15, 1967

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE COST

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AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE SYSTEMS

EMPLOYED IN AN EARTH SENSING ROLE

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There is currently considerable interest in the comparative cost

effectiveness of aircraft and satellites in providing photographic

coverage of large areas (earth-sensing). This paper presents an

analysis of the costs associated with the employment of aircraft and

satellite systems in an earth-sensing role. The analysis is based on

the use of the latest version of the U-2, the U-2R, in the aircraft role

and the CORONA search system in the satellite role. The peculiar

requirements of particular earth-sensing objectives, such as requirements for seasonal coverage for crop surveys or the need for synoptic

coverage for certain water resources analyses, were not considered.

Also the mission-peculiar data analysis and processing costs have

not been included in this analysis. Some of these mission-peculiar

requirements would introduce factors tending to favor the 'use of aircraft, others would tend to favor the use of satellites. On the whole,

however, it is believed that the results of this analysis should be

significant for a broad range of earth-sensing missions.

System Considerations

The U-2R, an improved version of the U-2 aircraft, equipped

with the standard "B" type sensor, was selected as the aircraft system

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for this study. Nominally, the "13'; camera, a 96" focal length sensor,

io capable of providing . ice x 10e 'square nautical miles of coverage

(70 nm x 1800 nm) per sortie with a ground resolution of approximately

two to three feet.

The standard CORONA vehicle was chosen as the satellite system

for this study. With a nominal on-orbit lifetime of 14 days, this system is capable of providing 8.0 x 106

 square nautical miles of coverage

(150 nm swath width) per mission and producing ground resolutions of

approximately 10 feet at nadir.

Area Considerations

A number of selected areas of the world are considered. These

range in size from the smallest, less than .5 x 106 square nautical

miles (the country of Bolivia) to the largest, over 28.0 I 10 6 square

nautical miles (virtually the entire non Sino-Soviet area of the world).

A descriptive listing of these areas is provided in Table I.

Cost Considerations 

Several cost factors, extrapolated from related U-2 operational

experience, provide the basis for the costing of the U-2R aircraft

sensor system. These include:

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Centro System
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Operational Costs.411111111per aircraft per month

Staging Costsalper staging

Processing/Exploitation Cost-per sortie

Operational costs include personnel, fuel, maintenance, spares

and amortization and are based on a utilization factor of 35 hours per

month. An aircraft unit coat VIM is amortized by the

straight-line method over a period of five years.

Staging costs are estimated as an average cost of the deployment of a minimum of one aircraft and a maximum of 18 aircraft

to any operating location anywhere in the world.

Processing/exploitation costs are based on the handling of a

maximum product of .126 x 10 6 square nautical miles of photography per sortie and include the processing of the original negative,

orientation/indexing, and first phase interpretation.

Costing of the satellite system is based on an experience factor

of111111111111per mission, excluding the cost of product processing

and exploitation. Processing/exploitation costs are estimated at

permission and include processing of the original negative,

orientation/indexing and first phase interpretation.

Development costs are not included in the consideration of either

the aircraft or satellite system.

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‘ulliMnro Coa -tetP-SECRET- IDEALIST

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• Methodologz

The maximum attainable area coverage per sortie for the U-2R

aircraft, equipped with the standard "B" camera, is .126 x 10 6

square nautical miles. For each area considered, this maximum

attainable value is reduced by the application of a factor which represents the climatological probability of success per access for

the given area.

For the four larger areas (Cases I through IV) this probability

factor is computed as the weighted average of the probabilities of

success per access for each of the constituent parts.

Operational experience with this type sensor. has shown that

two additional factors tend to degrade the over-all efficiency of the

system in achieving the probable coverage limit. One of the factors --

natural swath overlap -- accounts for an approximate 20% reduction

in desirable coverage; the other, termed requirements inefficiency,

accounts for an additional 20% reduction in coverage as a result of

"over-take" from those operations for which the requirements are

less than total area covered.

Consequently, the attainable coverage limit is reduced to a

value which can be considered the praCtical attainable limit per'

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sortie for this sensor system operating over a given area. This

value is ueed, then, to determine the number of sorties required

to obtain complete (defined as 100% imagery, 90% cloud-free)

coverage of the selected area.

The methodology used in the analysis of the satellite system

is again based on two prime factors -- climatology and over-all

system efficiency, a combination of geometric (iwath overlap),

requirements, command and camera efficiencies.

For the four smaller areas (Bolivia, India, the U.S. and

North'America, including Mexico) satellite missions are optimally programmed for a selected coverage. The number of

accesses required to achieve the desired (100% imagery, 90%

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cloud-free) level of coverage is computed on the basis of the probability of success per access (a climatological experience factor).

This enables the determination of the number of missions required

and the calculation of a cost per square nautical mile of coverage.

Several additional considerations are essential in the analysis

of the four larger areas (Cases I through IV). The over-all size

and geographical distribution of the constituent portions of these

areas necessitate a subgrouping to permit the application of appropriate climatology and geometric efficiency factors. Sensor system

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film capacity further limits the attainable coverage for the first

several missions over a given area.

The analysis of Cases I through IV begins, then, with the

application of the appropriate climatological experience factor to

the subgroups. Assuming one access to any given area for each

nine days of operation, this value is increased by a factor of 1.5

to account for the additional 1/2 access over a 14 day mission.

The over-all system efficiency percentage factor is then applied --

providing an indication of practical achievement in coverage for the

given area. Successive missions are then "flown" in this same

manner against the remaining available area.

This iterative process is continued to achieve the desired

(100% imagery, 90% cloud-free) coverage. The number of missions

required to attain that level enables the calculation of a host per

square nautical mile of coverage.

Results

The results of the analysis are presented in the following

paragraphs.

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Aircraft

Size 6 Required No.

Area (Sq NM x 10 ) of Sorties 

Bolivia 0.32 9

India 0.96 20

U.S. 2.75 76

North America

(including Mexico)

6.25 222

Case I 12.1 536

Case II 13.3 589

Case III 21.7 868

Case IV 28.2 1028

Satellites

Size 6

Area (Sq NM x 10 )

Required No.

of Missions

Bolivia 0.32 1

India 0.96 2

U.S. 2.75 3

North America

(including Mexico)

6.25 4

Case I 12.1 22

Case II 13.3 22

Case III 21.7 22

Case IV 28.2 22

Cost

(Dollars per Sq NM) 

Cost

(Dollars per Sq NM)

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XXXXXAMUL The analysis reflects an average cost Delete Thisper square

nautical nails of coverage with the aircraft sensor systems corn*

Pared with an average cost a ltteeje'his reti:per square nautical mile

with a satellite sensor system.

The fluctuation in cost per square nautical mile of coverage

by the aircraft sensor system is almost wholly attributable to the

variance in climatological experience factors for the selected areas.

In the case of the satellite sensor system, the significant increase in cost per square nautical mile of coverage from that shown

for a selected area of 6.25 x 108

 square nautical miles to that based

on 12.1 x 106 square nautical miles of coverage is the result of a

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combination of factors which includes: poorer over-all climatological conditions, limitations in the amount of film currently carried,

and the resultant requirement for a number of additional missions to

obtain the desired level of coverage.

A graphic presentation of costs is provided as Chart 1. The

plotted values are discrete. They are not intended to fix a trend

for the interpolation of costs for coverage of areas other than those

specifically defined.

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Square Nautijal

Area Considerations Miles x 10 

Bolivia 0. 32

India 0.86

United States 2.75

North America (including Mexico) 6.25

Case I: The American Continent, Greenland, ICeland 12.1

Case II: The American Continent, Greenland, Iceland, 13.3

Western Europe

Case III: The American Continent, Greenland, Iceland, 21.7

Western Europe,' Africa

Case IV: The American Continent, Greenland, Iceland, 28.2

Western Europe, Africa, Greece, Turkey,

Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal,

Burma, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,

Australia, New Zealand, New Guinea, Saudi

' Arabia, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, •

Table I

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Israel, and Southeast Asia
AREA OF COVERAGE (HM= : 1