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3 0 OCT 1970

MEMORANDUM POmmin

SUBJECT: Analysis Group Projects

With your arrival the analysis group has been brought

up to a full complement, and, under your direction, I anticipate increasing responsibilities for you and your staff in

the future. No that you have had a few weeks to become

familiar with the NRO, its mission, and the individuals on

your staff, I would like to suggest several tasks for you and

your group.

A rather complete list of tasks is attached to this

memorandum. As you will note, they span the entire range of

NRO activities. It is not possible for your group, or even

a larger group, to work on all of them simultaneously and produce meaningful and useful results. In fact the tasks are

continuing tasks, not tasks which have to meet a certain deadline.

Another factor you must consider in outlining your work

is that the tasks can not be performed in isolation of the

remainder of the Staff nor without inputs from industry, the

NRO Program Offices, and Aerospace Corporation. They will

have to make contributions to you just as you will have to

assist them.

Taking these factors into consideration, I would like

your group to be responsible for studies and analyses of

longer duration than the balance of the Staff. The orientation of the analysis group should be toward the future to . 4

determine in what direction the NED should proceed, to emphasize what mixes of equipments and procedures would be most

desirable in the future. Cost of new ;nixes must be traded

with the capabilities they would provide.

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Twice a year, usually November and July, the NRO and its

Board of Directors make program and budget decisions concerning future activities. We prepare issues from which the

decisions are made which determine our program. It•is too

Late for your group to have a strong influence on the November

issues. I would like you to direct the efforts of your group

so that you can have some influence for the July decisions.

To accomplish this, I would suggest you examine the tasks

in the attachment, and with the help of the staff, determine

which' of these will have important milestone decisions , in July.

After you have made this survey, please present your proposed . .

program to Dr. Naka •and me.

ILL •

John L. NtLuOs

Attachment

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TASKS FOR THE ANALYSIS GROUP

Examine the product of our collection systems to

determine whether satisfying the users' stated requirements

is an adequate measure of •our responsiveness to the users'

real needs. To accomplish this task, use the results from

other segments of the NRO which now determine how well and

to what degree users' stated requirements are satisfied.

Determine whether the users' requirements and the systems we

employ or plan to employ are well matched. In making this

determination it is important to differentiate between

requirements stated as a result of technical possibilities

and requirements expressing real needs. This is a continuing

task.

.Determine whether we have or will have a proper mix

of search, surveillance, high resolution and immediate imagery

recovery satellites to meet users' real needs. Will we have

enough or too much search capabilities in the future? Will

we have enough or too much surveillance capabilities? These

questions can't be answered absolutely, but your group can

assign costs per target and costs per square mile (perhaps

weighted) covered as some•measure of effectiveness. Do the

tests of targets contain targets of diminishing returns per

dollar invested? There have been studies which•addressed the

value of high resolution. This work should be a continuing

effort to identify intelligence gaps and determine whether

efforts to achieve higher resolution are worthwhile. Finally,

the impact of new systems which recover imagery by electromagnetic transmissions must be evaluated. Will these systems

yield necessary redundancy or will they overlap existing

capabilities? Can there be a better intermix of imaging satellites than we now Ian? e to determine if

E0I could replace or short of that,

determine how many c es of eac type would be required to

satisfy projected 1975-1980 realistic requirements.

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Compare the roles of collection of imagery by satellite with collection by aircraft, manned and unmanned. Enumerate the proper roles of sawn type of vehicle and attempt to

determine proper mixes.

Examine the ELINT/SIGINT satellite and airborne platforms to see how they satisfy requirements. The requirements

for ELINT also require examination to determine what differences may exist between real needs and stated needs. After

determining a set of realistic requirements, the tasks to be

accomplished should be delineated, differentiating between the

capabilities of overhead and peripheral collectors. The relation between national collection and reporting resources to

tactical collection and reporting resources should be established co determine whether it is possible to derive benefits

by closer cooperation.

Examine the possibilities of combining SIGINT functions in fewer types of vehicles.. Can o erational considerait combining functions of

In making this determinai on, r ware cons

t ons may ominate the decision. The assistance of other

groups in the NRO, Air Staff and elsewhere will be required

for hardwa • , at a of separating

the ELINT should be examined. , s is feasible, can

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Keep informed of the efforts of the Navy on Ocean

Surveillance. Examine the proposed solutions and determine

whether there are effective alternatives which warrant consideration.

7. Attempt to establish better specifications for NRO

vehicles by reviewing previous work and conducting analyses

of the meanings, importance and relevance of terms like contrast, ground resolution, group sample distance, obliquity

and signal-to-noise in photographic imagery. These terms

must be related to the users' functions like detection, recognition, and mensuration.

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Attempt to examine the relative importance of collecting BOB, technical intelligence, and operational intelligence

from NRO vehicles compared to non-NRO vehicles. From this

analysis determine how to best allocate responsibilities from

a DOD viewpoint.

Survey the array of National NRO and Service systems

to determine the feasibility of system consolidation or intermix. The goal would, of course, be to satisfy more requirements with less cost.

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