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DIRECTOR OF DEFENSE RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING 

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WASHINGTON 25. D. C. DORIAN_ GAMBIT 

7 July 1965 

MEMORANDUM FOR THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY, NATIONAL 

AERONAUTICS AND SPACE COUNCIL 

Enclosed is a copy of a draft memorandum to the President, which 

will be the basis of Secretary McNamara's discussion at the Space 

Council Meeting of July 9. You will note the special and sensitive 

clas sification. 

In order to allow full discussion, it will be necessary that those 

present at the meeting carry the special security clearances noted 

on the memorandum. 

.lifeu-ueresi 

HAROLD BROWN 

Enclosure 

cc: The Vice President 

Secretary of State 

Director, Bureau of the Budget 

Administrator, NASA 

Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission 

President's Special Ass't for Sci. & Tech. (for Mr. Keeny) 

Director, Central Intelligence Agency 

GROUP 1 

Excluded from automatic 

"downgrading and declassification 

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GAMBIT DORIAN 

MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT 

SUBJECT: Manned Orbital Laboratory 

During the budget discussions last fall, you decided to put 

$150 million in the Dor) FY '66 budget for the proposed Manned Orbital 

Laboratory but asked that release of the funds be deferred until 

completion of studies then underway. These studies have 44e4 been 

completed. Based on their conclusions I recommend release of the 

FY '66 funds and the initiation of our MOL development program which 

will extend over five years and cost an estimated $1.6 billion. The 

President's Special Assistant for Science and Technology concurs in 

my recommendation. The Director of the Bureau of the Budget questions 

it. It is the purpose of this memorandum to outline the project and our 

respective views concerning it. 

The proposed MOL program would build and flight test a full 

scale prototype of a manned high resolution photographic satellite. 

Based on the recently completed studies, I conclude that: 

a. The proposed program is technically sound in 

concept. That is to say, its general technical feasibility, and the 

general time and cost ranges, . -e re,sonably likely of accomplishment. 

b. The TIT _ *I C-C71. -ombination, rather than 

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some SATURN-APOLLO unit, appears to be by far the least expensive 

booster and recovery vehicle combination for use with the MOL. 

c. A series of 5 semi-operational flights can be 

cbmpleted in the 1969-70 period. 

d. This semi-operational capability is likely to provide 

photographic resolution over a large fraction of its field 

of view (current U-2 provides ■ current reconnaissance 

satellites 3 feet, programmed unmanned satellites are expected to 

give If one desires capability at 

resolution, proceeding with a manned rather than an unmanned system 

offers much greater certainty Di success. A manned system of later 

vintage, probably using a very -ir.ich larger booster (for example, 

SATURN V) is the only presenE:.y cor _v,r. way to get materially 

better resolution, perhaps The MOL appears to be 

a necessary step, if we want some day to get resolutions in the 

neighborhood of good as we will 

ever desire, then unmanned systems can probably pr. vide that peak 

resolution capability almost as well a canned capability, at 

perhaps half the development cu3t (although at a later date), using 

about the same size booster. 

The ability of a man to pick out a target through 

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broken clouds, and to photograph it if there appears to be something 

new about it, or to select very high resolution images (photo or electrooptical) for prompt radio relay to earth, are subsidiary values difficult 

to assess. It is clear that manned operation will permit nearer optimum 

resolution over a broasder field of view by point, adjustment, and reducing 

smear. Each of these effects will degrade the unmanned system below. 

the design goal at oblique angles, where the most important technical 

intelligence is obtained. This will tend to cut down the number of missions 

required in the manned case relative to the unmanned, thus reducing the 

extra cost of manned operation, even if nothing 

resolution is desired. 

e. I incline to the belief that there is a continuously 

increasing value to better res Diution, at least down to values beyond 

the range under consideration here. Though it is not possible to give 

a quantitative estimate of the value of better resolution, and perhaps 

no general statement can be made, large numbers of examples can be 

adduced of characteristic: which are much more likely to be found, or 

more convincingly interpreter!_ as resol,..—.3n improves. These include, 

for the case of intelligence matters 

which can have a very profound effect on our military force structure 

and our operational plans such as thickness of a silo wall, frequency and 

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feeds of an ABM or other radar, the nature of the guidance system 

of a ballistic missile, whether a ballistic missile is solid or liquid 

propelled, et cetera. I think it likely, though studies of this have 

been very preliminary, that frequent surveillance of such activities 

as operations of a nuclear plant will tell us substantially more about 

nature and level of plant operations if we have than if we have 

resolution. Indeed, a host of possible applications in arms 

control, both with respect to strategic forces and the movement of 

tactical forces, are likely to be more reliably monitored with 

satellite observation at a high resolution. 

In all of these general categories, it is difficult 

to make a pfecise statement about the over-all effect of the difference 

between resolution and resolution. However, I 

have enough examples where higher resolution is demonstrably more 

valuable with respect to quite specific information, to conclude that 

the difference between manned and unmanned operation may well 

produce an important difference in capaoilities. This cannot be verified 

for certain without demonstration. 

f. It will be possible, on the basis of the MOL design, 

to switch to an unmanned capability part way through the development 

period should the conclusion be reached that the poorer resolution 

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5 

and lesser capability of an unmanned system will meet our requirements. 

The cost of such a false start would approximate $200 million. 

g• A number of other potential military uses of the 

MOL, such as SIGINT collection, ocean surveillance, high resolution 

radar, infra-red observation, et cetera, have been looked at in very 

much less detail. Demonstrations of some of these subsidiary spplicadons will be provided for in the program. 

As a result of these considerations I believe the MOL will 

produce an/improvement in military reconnaissance so great as to 

justify the $1. 6 billion cost. 

The proposed MOL program has been reviewed with the 

President's Special Assistant for Science and Technology and the 

Director of the Bureau of the Budget. 

Dr. Hornig has recommended that we proceed with the program. 

He suggests that we proceed in parallel with development of a backup 

system, unmanned but fitting the same spacecraft design, with a. 

performance goal of-resolution. This we concur in. He also 

recommends that careful consideration be given to the following 

problems: 

a. The extent to which the public should be informed 

about MOL and the methods by which the program is introduced so 

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that we establish from the beginning a public view of the MOL which 

will give it the best chance of acceptance by the international 

community. 

b. The contingencies that might arise if the flights 

are not accepted. 

Mr. Schultze has serious doubts whether the value of the manned 

system over an alternative unmanned system is worth the very substantial increase in development costs (from .6 or .8 billion to 1. 6 

billion) and in operating costs (from about $35 million to $70 million 

per launch). He suggests that consideration be given to an alternative 

of proceeding for the next year or 18 months with the unmanned system 

and of conducting, during this period, an intensive further review of 

the need for and value of the improved reconnaissance capabilities of 

the manned system. Depending on the results of these studies a decision 

could then be made at a later date to proceed with either an unmanned 

or manned system. 

Dr. Hornig and I believe we should proceed with the program as 

I have outlined it above. I am planning to discuss this program with 

the Space Council and I shall ask that it provide its recommendations to 

you. 

Robert S. McNamara 

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