Appendix G Attainment Modeling Demonstration and Documentation

.

Attachment 10 was submitted in Electronic Format Only

. Some portions have been copied but large data files in Att a ch ment 10 are available from the EPA Region III office by request

.
Listing of Large data Files in Att a ch ment 10 available from the EPA Region III office by

request :

● “ obs+pred.8hr_O3_BaseB1.tar.gz ”

Read.me .txt
Cas tnet.txt
State09.txt

State10.txt

State11.txt

State23.txt

State24.txt

State25.txt

State33.txt

State34.txt

State36.txt

State42.txt

State44.txt

State50.txt

State51.txt Special,txt

● diurnals_BaseB1.xls:

● stats_max8hr_o3_BaseB1.xls

● stats_max8hr_o3_naa_BaseB1.xls

● stats_frm+teom_BaseB1.xls

● stats_stn_BaseB1.xls

● stats_improve_BaseB1.xls

● stats_gases_BaseB1.xls:

● stats_voc_BaseB1.xls:

● wetdep_BaseB1.xls

# OTC_statistics.pdf1

Statistics for the OTC model evaluation August 10 , 2006

The statistical formulations presented in each spreadsheet are as follows: P i and O i are the individual (daily maximum or average, depending on the parameter) predicted and

observed concentrations, r espectively; and are the average concentrations, respectively; and N is the sample size.

(1) Coefficient of determination, R 2 :

(2) Normalized mean error, in %:

(3) Root mean square error, in ppb or μg m - 3 :

(4) Fractional gross error, in %:

(5) Mean absolute gross error, in ppb or μg m - 3 :

(6) Mean normalized g ross error, in %:

(7) Mean bias, in ppb or μg m - 3 :

(8) Mean normalized bias, in %:2

(9) Mean fractionalized bias, in %:

(10) Normalized mean bias, in %:

# README_BaseB1.pdfREADME_BaseB1.txt

----------------- Evaluation of the Base B1 CMAQ simulation, May 15

- September 30, 2002
New York State DEC, Division of Air Resources September 27, 2006

The New York State DEC completed the latest ("Base B1") base case

simulation covering the period May 15

- September 30, 2002. The files within this directory reflect the most up

- to

- date results over the OTR plus all of Virginia. Each spreadsheet contains a metadata page that lists the

number of stations, assumptions made to c ompute statistics, etc.

1. obs+pred.8hr_O3_BaseB1.tar.gz: gzip'd archive containing time series

of 8

- hour average observed and predicted O3; files are organized by different

states; format of each file is site ID, day, time (end of hour EST), observe d O3, predicted O3; this archive also includes a small "readme.txt" file;

CASTNet and other "special" sites are also included

2. OTC_statistics.doc: lists the different statistical metrics used in

the

model evaluation

3. diurnals_BaseB1.xls: obs erved and predicted composite diurnal

variations of selected species

- O3 at SLAMS/NAMS sites, O3 at CASTNet & other
sites, continuous PM2.5, CO, ethene, isoprene, NO, NO2, and SO2

4. stats_max8hr_o3_BaseB1.xls: statistical evaluation of daily maximu m
8

- hour O3 at SLAMS/NAMS sites and CASTNet/other sites; statistics are computed using

two different thresholds for observed daily max O3

- 40 and 60 ppb;

statistics are computed by date (all sites on a given day) and by site (one site

over all days)

5. stats_max8hr_o3_naa_BaseB1.xls: statistical evaluation of daily

maximum 8

- hour O3 at SLAMS/NAMS sites that fall within non

- attainment counties (EPA 2003 designations); statistics are computed by non

- attainment area

6. stats_frm+teom_BaseB1.xls: statistical evaluation of daily average
PM2.5 mass, including FRM sites and continuous PM2.5 sites; statistics are computed by date and by site7. stats_stn_BaseB1.xls: statistical evaluation of daily average PM2.5,

SO4, NO3,
NH4, EC, OM (1.8*blank

- corrected OC), and crustal/soil mass at EPA STN
sites; statistics are computed by date and by site

8. stats_improve_BaseB1.xls: statistical evaluation of daily average
PM2.5, SO4, NO3,
EC, OM (1.8*blank

- corrected OC), and crustal/soil mass at IMPROV E sites; statistics are computed by date and by site; also includes Dolly Sods

9. stats_gases_BaseB1.xls: statistical evalution of daily average CO,
NO, NO2, and SO2 at SLAMS/NAMS and other sites; statistics are computed by date and by

site

10. st ats_voc_BaseB1.xls: statistical evalution of daily average ethene, isoprene, and formaldehyde at SLAMS/NAMS and other sites; statistics are computed by

date and by site

11. wetdep_BaseB1.xls: comparison of SO4, NO3, and NH4 accumulated wet depositi on at NADP/NTN, AIRMoN, and NYSDEC acid deposition monitors

12. temporal_plots_BaseB1.ppt: plots of composite time series (daily max

8

- hour O3, FRM PM2.5 mass, STN speciation) and RMSE & mean bias

- for illustrative

purposes only!

13. spatial_plo ts_BaseB1.ppt: spatial plots of observed daily max 8

- hour
O3, FRm PM2.5 mass, and STN speciation, as well as RMSE & mean bias

- for illustrative purposes only!

# spatial_plots_BaseB1.pdf

### 1 

# • A more complete statistical evaluation, including diurnal variations, of the summer portion (May 15

– September 30, 2002) is available on the NYSDEC FTP site  

# ftp://ftp.dec.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/kevin

• Here we present a subset of the analysis of selected species on a spatial basis

• Daily maximum 8

- hour O 3 

# , FRM PM 2.5 

# , and major speciation (EPA STN) data

• Only data from AQS are considered here; analysis of IMPROVE, CASTNet & special data are on the FTP site 

# Preliminary evaluation of the 2002 Base B1 CMAQ simulation: Spatial

Analysis

### 2 Daily maximum 8

- hour average O 3 with a minimum observed threshold of 40 ppb at 208 SLAMS/NAMS sites across the OTR and Virginia: (A) observed averages, (B) root mean square error (RMSE), and (C) mean bias (MB=P

- O). At least 10 days were required for displaying the statistics at a given site. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian forest fires.

### 3 Daily maximum 8

- hour average O 3 with a minimum observed threshold of 60 ppb at 208 SLAMS/NAMS sites across the OTR and Virginia: (A) observed averages, (B) root mean square error (RMSE), and (C) mean bias (MB=P

- O). At least 10 days were required for displaying the statistics at a given site. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian forest fires.

### 4 Daily average FRM PM 2.5 mass at 257 SLAMS/NAMS sites across the OTR and Virginia: (A) observed averages, (B) root mean square error (RMSE), and (C) mean bias (MB=P

- O). At least 10 days were required for displaying the statistics at a given site, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the

Canadian forest fires.

### 5 Daily average SO 4 mass at 49 EPA/STN sites across the OTR and Virginia: (A) observed averages, (B) root mean square error (RMSE), and (C) mean bias (MB=P

O). At least 10 days were required for displaying the statistics at a given site, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian

forest fires.

### 6 Daily average NO 3 mass at 49 EPA/STN sites across the OTR and Virginia: (A) observed averages, (B) root mean square error (RMSE), and (C) mean bias (MB=P

O). At least 10 days were required for displaying the statistics at a given site, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian

forest fires.

### 7 Daily average NH 4 mass at 49 EPA/STN sites across the OTR and Virginia: (A) observed averages, (B) root mean square error (RMSE), and (C) mean bias (MB=P

O). At least 10 days were required for displaying the statistics at a given site, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian

forest fires.

### 8 Daily average EC mass at 49 EPA/STN sites across the OTR and Virginia: (A) observed averages, (B) root mean square error (RMSE), and (C) mean bias (MB=P

- O). At least 10 days were required for displaying the statistics at a given site, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian forest fires.

### 9 Daily average OM (=1.8 × blank

- corrected OC) mass at 49 EPA/STN sites across the OTR and Virginia: (A) observed averages, (B) root mean square error (RMSE), and (C) mean bias (MB=P

- O). At least 10 days were required for displaying the statistics at a given site, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian forest fires.

### 10 Daily average soil/crustal mass at 49 EPA/STN sites across the OTR and Virginia: (A) observed averages, (B) root mean square error (RMSE), and (C) mean bias (MB=P

- O). At least 10 days were required for displaying the statistics at a given site, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the

Canadian forest fires.

# temporal_plots_BaseB1.pd

f

### 1 

# Preliminary evaluation of the 2002
Base B1 CMAQ simulation: Temporal Analysis

• A more complete statistical evaluation, 

# including diurnal variations, of the summer portion (May 15

– September 30, 2002) is

available on the NYSDEC FTP site  ftp://ftp.dec.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/kevin



# • Here we present a subset of the analysis of selected species on a temporal basis

• Daily maximum 8

- hour O 3 

# , FRM PM 2.5 

# , and major speciation (EPA STN) data

• Only data from AQS are considered here; 

# analysis of IMPROVE, CASTNet & special

data are on the FTP site

### 2 Daily maximum 8

- hour average O 3 with a minimum observed threshold of 40 ppb at 208 SLAMS/NAMS sites across the OTR and Virginia. Top panel shows observed and predicted composite averages, bottom panel shows the root mean square error and mean bias (P

- O). At least 10 monitors per day were required for displaying the statistics on a given day. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian forest fires.

### 3 Daily maximum 8

- hour average O 3 with a minimum observed threshold of 60 ppb at 208 SLAMS/NAMS sites across the OTR and Virginia. Top panel shows observed and predicted composite averages, bottom panel shows the root mean square error and mean bias (P

- O). At least 10 monitors per day were required for displaying the statistics on a given day. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian forest fires.

### 4 Daily average FRM PM 2.5 mass at 257 SLAMS/NAMS sites across the OTR and Virginia. Top panel shows observed and predicted composite averages, bottom panel shows the root mean square error and mean bias (P

- O). At least 10 monitors per day were required for displaying the statistics on a given day, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian forest fires.

### 5 Daily average SO 4 mass at 49 EPA STN sites across the OTR and Virginia. Top panel shows observed and predicted composite averages, bottom panel shows the root mean square error and mean bias (P

- O). At least 10 monitors per day were required for displaying the statistics on a given day, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian forest fires.

### 6 Daily average NO 3 mass at 49 EPA STN sites across the OTR and Virginia. Top panel shows observed and predicted composite averages, bottom panel shows the root mean square error and mean bias (P

- O). At least 10 monitors per day were required for displaying the statistics on a given day, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian forest fires.

### 7 Daily average NH 4 mass at 49 EPA STN sites across the OTR and Virginia. Top panel shows observed and predicted composite averages, bottom panel shows the root mean square error and mean bias (P

- O). At least 10 monitors per day were required for displaying the statistics on a given day, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian forest fires.

### 8 Daily average EC mass at 49 EPA STN sites across the OTR and Virginia. Top panel shows observed and predicted composite averages, bottom panel shows the root mean square error and mean bias (P

- O). At least 10 monitors per day were required for displaying the statistics on a given day, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian forest fires.

### 9 Daily average OM (=1.8 × blank

- corrected OC) mass at 49 EPA STN sites across the OTR and Virginia. Top panel shows observed and predicted composite averages, bottom panel shows the root mean square error and mean bias (P

- O). At least 10 monitors per day were required for displaying the statistics on a given day, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the

Canadian forest fires.

### 10 Daily average soil/crustal mass at 49 EPA STN sites across the OTR and Virginia. Top panel shows observed and predicted composite averages, bottom panel shows the root mean square error and mean bias (P

- O). At least 10 monitors per day were required for displaying the statistics on a given day, and only those days when the observed and predicted mass agreed to within a factor of 25 are included. Data from the July 6

- 9 period are excluded since they may be affected by the Canadian forest fires. The data from July 4 are also excluded (substantial effects from fireworks).

# Ozone_8_May_2002s_BaseB .pdf

# Ozone_8_June_2002s_BaseB .pdf

# Ozone_8_July_2002s_BaseB .pdf

# Ozone_8_August_2002s_BaseB .pdf