TSD-1 f



## Future Y ear Emissions Inventory for 8-Hr OTC O zone Modeling

Bureau of

Air Qualit y Anal ysis a nd Research Division o f Air Reso urces Ne w York State Depart me nt o f Environ me ntal Con servation

Alba ny , NY 12233 February 22, 2007Following the designation of an area as non-attain me nt for the criteri a pollutant Ozone,

the Clean Air Act requires submission of an imple me nt ation plan, com mo nl y referred to as State Impl em ent ation Plan (SIP), demonstrat ing as to how that area will be meet ing the NA AQS in the time period established by the Act. Several areas of the OTR were designatedas being in nonattain me nt for 8-hr ozone (see http://www.epa.gov/o zonedesigna tions/ ) with a maxi mu m attain me nt date of June 2009 and June 2010. However, given thatozone precursors also contribute to PM 2 .5 and other logistics, itwa s reco mm end ed and agreedb y the mem ber states that

the future y ea r for demonstr ating attainm en t would be 2009. Therefore the OTR states initiatedthe develop men t of emissions inventories reflect ing growth and control from 2002 to 2009 as well as for 2012 and 2018. The 2018 inventor y w as in response to the needfor submission of regional haze SIP, and the 2012 a s a next step in the event thatattain me nt for ozone wa s not feasible in 2009. Future ye ar em issions inventories within the OTR The OTR states through M ANE-VU contract ed MA CTEC Federal Programs (called Contractor) develop the 2009, 2012 and 2018 inventories based upon 2002 inventories thatthe states had previously developedfor use in the base y ea r model w ork. The Contractor

in consultation with the states developedthe necessar y gro wth and control factors and applied

to the 2002 inventory . It should be noted that em issions for mob ile sources and the electric energy generating units (EGUs) w as not part of the Contractor’s effort. The states provided V ADEQ and NESC AUM appropriate M OBILE 6 input files along with the pro

jected VMTs, w hich coupledwith the hourly gridded te mpera ture inform ation wa s used to generate mobi le source e missions. A s for the emissions from the EGU sector, the inter- RP O work group utilized the Integrated Planning M odel (IP M) to develop the state and unit-level emissions. Details on these topics can be found in MACTEC (2007a) for non-EG U sectors and in ICF (2006) for the EGU sector. These inventories are identified as 2009 on the wa y (2009OTW), since the y reflect all emission control me asures thatw ere promulgat ed or would beco me effective on or before 2009. In addition to these OTW inventories, states have also requested the develop men t of what is ter med as be yo nd on the wa y

(BOTW) inventories for 2009, 2012, and 2018. These inventories are to be ba sed on additional OTC model rules, w hich would result in reduction in emissions from specific source categories. Details on the develop men t of these controls and the corresponding inventories can be found in M ACTEC (2007b). Future ye ar em ission inventories outside the OTR MA NE- V U obtained inventories for 2009OTW and 2018 OTW as part of the inter- RP O workgroup. Ho wever, only MRP O provided emissions for 2012OTW. For the V ISTAS region, 2012 emissions were obtainedb y interpola ting area, nonroad, and non-EGU em issions between 2009 and2018. F or mobi le s ources, VMT were interpola ted between 2009 and 2018 and the 2012 em issions were calculat ed with MOBILE6 using these interpola ted VMT and 2012 em ission factors. For the CENR AP region, no 2012em issions w ere generated, and therefore the 2009 emissions were used in the 2012

CMA Q simul ation. Canadian E missions In the case of Canadian em issions, 2010 and 2020 area, non-road, and mobi le source em issions w ere obtained

from USEP A ( ftp://ftp. epa.gov/ Em isInven tor y/ ca na da_2000inven tor y / ). Primar y P M 2. 5 and P M 1 0 em issions for the SCCs listed in http://www.epa.gov/ ttn/ chief/ em ch /inven t/tf_scc_ list2002ne i_v2.xls were dividedb y a factor of 4 to account for the fugitive dust transport fraction correction. EG U point source em issions for 2010 and 2020 were obtained from Environ men t Canada (Bloomer, 2006), while non-EGU point source em issions were as sumed to be the same as those developed for 2002 and de scribed elsewhere (see TSD-1c). The 2010 inventories were used in preparing CM AQ input files for the 2009OTW, 2009BOTW, and 2012B OTW scenarios. Em issions proces sing – A pplicat ion of SM OKE The 2009OTW, 2009BOTW, and 2012 B OTW inventories were processed b y VA DEQ and N YS DEC u sing a temp late simil arto that was used for processing 2002 base y ea r em issions ( see TS D-1d) for the 12 kmdoma in. In particul ar, all gridding and speciation profiles and cross-reference files a s well as all tempor al alloca tion profiles and crossreference files used in the 2002 processing were also u sed for future y ea r proces sing. F or each da y, the following files were prepared: 2009OTW:

• MA NE- V U o 2009 OTW V 3 area source (V ADEQ) o 2009 V3 nonroad source (VA DEQ) o 2009 mobi le s ource (NYS DEC) o 2009 OTW V 3 non-EGU point s ource ( VADEQ) o 2009 IPM2.1.9. EG U point source (VA DEQ) o 2009 EGU point s ource, IP M2.1.9. non-fossil fuel units (V ADEQ) • VISTA S o 2009 BaseG area source (V ADEQ) o 2009 BaseG nonroad source ( VADEQ) o 2009 BaseG non-EGU point source ( VADEQ) o 2009 IPM2.1.9. EG U point source (incl. post-IPM ad justmen ts) ( VADEQ) o 2009 BaseG low-level fires ( VADEQ) o 2009 BaseG elevated s ource fires (VA DEQ) • MRP O o 2009 BaseK area source (N YSDEC) o 2009 BaseK area source NH 3/dust (NYS DEC) o 2009 BaseK nonroad source (NYS DEC)o 2009 non-EGU point s ource ( VADEQ) o 2009 IPM2.1.9. EG U point source (incl. post-IPM ad justmen ts) ( VADEQ) • CENRAP o 2009 BaseB area source (VA DEQ) o 2009 BaseB nonroad s ource (V ADEQ) o 2009 non-EGU point s ource ( VADEQ) o 2009 IPM2.1.9. EG U point source (VA DEQ) • VISTA S/MRPO/CENRAP ( “non-M ANE-VU R POs”) o 2009 mobi le s ources for all non-MA NE- V U RP Os as impl em en ted in VISTA S 2009 BaseG processing (VA DEQ) • Canada o 2010 area sources (N YSDEC) o 2010 nonroad s ources (NY SDEC) o 2010 mobi le s ources (NY SDEC) o pointsources (2002 non-EG U point sources; 2010 EGU point s ources from I PM) (N YSDEC) • Biogenics o Same as for 2002 base case, calcul ated with hourly MM5 meteoro logica l fields for 2002 (N YSDEC) 2009 BOT W: As above for 2009 OTW, with the following two exceptions:

• MA NE- V U o 2009 BOTW V 3 area source (N YSDEC) o 2009 BOTW V 3 non-EGU point s ource (NYS DEC) 2012 BOT W:

• MA NE- V U o 2012 OTW V 3 area source (N YSDEC) o 2012 V3 nonroad source (NY SDEC) o 2012 mobi le s ource (NYS DEC) o 2012 OTW V 3 non-EGU point s ource (NYS DEC) o 2012 IPM2.1.9. EG U point source (NY SDEC) o 2009 EGU point s ource, IP M2.1.9. non-fossil fuel units (V ADEQ) • VISTA S o 2012 BaseG area source (interpolat ed between 2009 BaseG and 2018 BaseG) (N YSDEC) o 2012 BaseG nonroad source (interpolated between 2009 BaseG and 2018 BaseG) (N YSDEC) o 2012 BaseG mobi le source (interpolated V MT between 2009 BaseG and 2018 BaseG) (N YSDEC)o 2012 BaseG non-EGU point source (interpolated between 2009 BaseG and 2018 Ba seG) (NY SDEC) o 2012 IPM2.1.9. EG U point source (incl. post-IPM ad justmen ts) (NY SDEC) o 2009 BaseG low-level fires ( VADEQ) o 2009 BaseG elevated s ource fires (VA DEQ) • MRP O o 2012 BaseK area source (N YSDEC) o 2012 BaseK area source NH 3/dust (NYS DEC) o 2012 BaseK nonroad source (NYS DEC) o 2012 BaseK nonroad source (NYS DEC) o 2012 non-EGU point s ource (NYSDEC) o 2012 IPM2.1.9. EG U point source (incl. post-IPM ad justmen ts) (NY SDEC) • CENRAP o 2009 BaseB area source (VA DEQ) o 2009 BaseB nonroad s ource (V ADEQ) o 2009 mobi le s ource (based on VI STAS 2009 BaseG processing) (NY SDEC) o 2009 non-EGU point s ource ( VADEQ) o 2009 IPM2.1.9. EG U point source (VA DEQ) • Canada o 2010 area sources (N YSDEC) o 2010 nonroad s ources (NY SDEC) o 2010 mobi le s ources (NY SDEC) o pointsources (2002 non-EG U point sources; 2010 EGU point s ources from I PM) (N YSDEC) • Biogenics o Same as for 2002 base case, calcul ated with hourly MM5 meteoro logica l fields for 2002

References ICF (2006) MACTEC (2007a) MACTEC (2007b) Bloom er, Br ya

n (2006) Bloom er.Br ya

n@ epam ai l.ep a.gov Personal comm uni cation to Gopal Si stla ( gsistla@dec.state.n y .u s )TSD-1c (2007) Em ission Processing for the Revised 2002 OTC Regional and Urban 12

km Base Case Simula tions TSD-1d (2007) 8hr Ozone Modeling u sing the SM OKE/CMAQ sy ste m