# pennsyLvania

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

SECRETARY

April 28, 2014

Mr. Shawn M. Garvin Regional Administrator

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region III

1650 Arch Street, (Mail Code: 3RAOO) Philadelphia, PA 19103-2029**~,,r::,** Dear Mr,/Garvin:

I am pleased to submit to you a request to redesignate the Lancaster 1997 annual and

2006 24-hour fine particulate matter (PM 2

. 5 ) nonattainment area to attainment, and a revision to

the State Implementation Plan (SIP) including a Maintenance Plan demonstrating that the area

can maintain the 1997 PM 2 .5 National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for at least ten

years after redesignation, as required under Section 175A(b) of the Clean Air Act (CAA). The

SIP submittal also includes the comprehensive emissions inventory required under

Section 172( c )(3) ofthe CAA.

The Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) opened a 30-day public comment period on
March 8, 2014, on the proposed redesignation request, maintenance plan and comprehensive

emissions inventory for the area and received written comments from one person. The public hearing scheduled for April 10, 2014, was cancelled because no one expressed interest in presenting testimony or attending the hearing.

The following documents are enclosed for your approval:

1. Request for Redesignation to attainment;

2. Maintenance Plan State Implementation Plan revision, which includes the comprehensive emissions inventory and a Motor Vehicle Emissions Budget for

the purposes of transportation conformity;

3. Certification of public participation activities; and

4. Comment and Response Document.

A paper copy of the documents and a disc containing an electronic copy of the documents for the

area are enclosed. I certifY that the electronic files are exact duplicates of the hard copies.

The Commonwealth followed all ofthe applicable procedural requirements of the State's laws

and constitution in conducting and completing the issuance of the SIP revision.

Rachel Carson State Office Building I P.O. Box 2063 I Harrisburg, PA 17105-2063

717.787.2814 01;,

Printed on Recycled Paper \OQ www.depweb.state.pa.usMr. Shawn M. Garvin - 2 - April 28, 2014

Thank you in advance for the expeditious processing of the redesignation request and SIP

revision. Should you have any questions or need additional infonnation, please contact Joyce E. Epps, Director, Bureau of Air Quality, bye-mail at jeepps@pa.gov or by telephone at

717.787.9702.

Sincerely,

E. Christopher Abruzzo Secretary

Enclosures

# C ommonwealth of Pennsylvania



# State Implementation Plan Revision:

Maintenance Plan and Comprehensive Inventory

Lancaster Nonattainment Area

1997 and 2006 Fine Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards

May 201 4

Bureau of A ir Quality Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

P.O. Box 8468 Harrisburg, PA 17105

- 8468

717

- 787

- 9495

www.dep.state.pa.usThis page intentionally left blank

.- i

- Table of Conten ts

I. Introduction and Overview

................................ ................................ ................................ .. 1

A. Health and Environmental Effects of Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 )

.................... 1

B. Sources of PM 2.5 and Precursor Pollutants of Concern

................................ ............ 2

C. Purpose and Structure of this SIP Revision

................................ ............................. 5

D. Public Participation

................................ ................................ ................................ .. 9

II. Emission Inventories

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 9

A. Emissions Inventory Methodology for Baseline Year (2002) an d Attainment Year (2007) Emissions

................................ ................................ ........ 10

B. Baseline Year (2002) Emissions

................................ ................................ ............ 15

C. Attainment Year (2007) Annual Emissions (Tons per Year)

................................ 15

D. Growth Projection Methodologies for 2017 and 2025

................................ .......... 16

E. Interim Year (2017) Emissions

................................ ................................ .............. 19

F. Maintenance Year (2025) Emissions

................................ ................................ ..... 20

G. Maintenance Plan Emissions Test

................................ ................................ ......... 20

III. Permanen t and Enforceable Control Measures

................................ ................................ .. 22

A. Permanent and Enforceable Control Measures

................................ ...................... 22

1. Stationary Point Sources

................................ ................................ ............ 26

2. Highway Vehicle Sources

................................ ................................ .......... 31

3. Nonroad Sources

................................ ................................ ........................ 34

4. Stationary Area Sou rces

................................ ................................ ............. 35

B. Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets for Transportation Conformity

........................ 36

IV. Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network

................................ ................................ ........ 39

V. Verification of Continued Attainment

................................ ................................ ............... 39

VI. Contingency Measures

................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 39

Table of Tables

Table II

- 1: Lancaster Area 2002 Annual Emissions (Tons per Year)

................................ ......... 15

Table II

- 2: Lancaster Area 2007 Annual Emissions (Tons per Year)

................................ ......... 16

Table II

- 3: Lancaster Area VMT (Miles) and Vehicle Emissions (Tons per Year)

.................... 18

Table II

- 4: Lancaster Area Projected 2017 Emissions (Tons per Year)

................................ ...... 19

Table II

- 5: Lancaster Area Projected 2025 Emissions (Tons per Year)

................................ ...... 20

Table II

- 6: Lancaster Area NH 3 Emis sions and PM 2.5 Design Values

................................ ........ 21

Table II

- 7: Lancaster Area Maintenance Emissions Test

................................ ............................ 22

Table III

- 1: Summary of Emission Red uctions (Tons) from 2007 to 2025 from Control

Measures

................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 25

Table III

- 2: Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (Tons per Year)

................................ .................. 37

Table III

- 3: Comparison of Safety Margin to Total Anticipated Emission Reductions in

2017 and 2025

................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 37

Table III

- 4: Comparison of 2025 On

- Road Mobile VOC, NH 3 , and SO 2 Emissions to the

Total Projec ted 2025 Inventory

................................ ................................ ................ 38- ii

- APPENDICES

APPENDIX A: STATIONARY POINT SOURCES

A

- 1 Methodology

– Preparation of Pennsylvania Point Source Inventories and

Instructions for Completing the Annual Emissions Reporting Forms

A

- 2 Facil ity Annual Emissions

– 2002

A

- 3 Facility Annual Emissions

– 2007, 2017, 2025

A

- 4 Banked Emissions Reduction Credits

APPENDIX B: STATIONARY AREA SOURCES

B

- 1 Pennsylvania 2002 Area Source Criteria Air Pollutant Emission Estimation

Methods (EH Pechan, Feb. 2004)

B

- 2 Pennsylvania 2007 Area Source Criteria Air Pollutant Emission Estimation

Methods (Dec. 2009)

B

- 3 Area Source Annual Emissions

– 2002

B

- 4 Area Source Annual Emissions

– 2007, 2017, 2025

APPENDIX C: REGIONAL EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND PROJECTION

MET HODOLOGY

C

- 1 Technical Support Document for the Development of the 2007Emission

Inventories for Regional Air Quality Modeling in the Northeast/Mid

- Atlantic Region Version 3.3 (AMEC Environment & Infrastructure and SRA International, Inc. for MARAMA, Januar y 2012)

C

- 2 Technical Support Document for the Development of the 2017/2020 Emission

Inventories for Regional Air Quality Modeling in the Northeast/Mid

- Atlantic Region Version 3.3 (AMEC Environment & Infrastructure and SRA International, Inc. for MARAMA, J anuary 2012)

C

- 3 Technical Support Document for the Development of the 2025 Emission

Inventory for PM Nonattainment Countie s in the MANE

- VU Region

Version 3.3 Rev. 1 (AMEC Environment & Infrastructure and SRA International, Inc. for MARAMA, January 2012)

C

- 4 Technical Memo Emission Factors for Condensable PM

APPENDIX D: HIGHWAY VEHICLE SOURCES INVENTORY INFORMATION

D

- 1 Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory

– An Explanation of

Methodology

D

- 2 Highway Emissions Estimates

– 2002, 2007, 2017, 2025

D

- 3 MOVES Input Parameter Summary

D

- 4 MOVES Input and Output Files

APPENDIX E: NONROAD SOURCES

E

- 1 Emissions Estimation Methodology

– 2002

E

- 2 Nonroad Source Emissions

– 2002

E

- 3 Nonroad Source Emissions

– 2007, 2017, 2025- 1

-

I. I NTRODUCTION AND O VERVIEW

A. Heal th and Environmental Effect s of Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 )

Particulate matter (PM) is a mixture of microscopic solids and liquid droplets suspended in air that include: acids (such as nitrates and sulfates), organic chemicals, metals, soil or dust pa rticles and allergens (such as fragments of pollen or mold spores). Fine particle pollution or PM 2.5 describes particulate matter th at is less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (μm) in diameter, approximately 1/30th

the diameter of a human hair. Because of their small size, fine particles can penetrate deeply into the lungs.

Health studies have shown a significant association between exposure to fine particles and p remature death from heart or lung disease. Fine particles can aggravate heart and lung diseases and have been linked to effects such as cardiovascular symptoms, cardiac arrhythmias, heart attacks, respiratory symptoms, asthma attacks, and bronchitis. The se effects can result in increased hospital admissions, emergency room visits, absences from school or work, and restricted activity days. Individuals that may be particularly sensitive to fine particle exposure include people with heart or lung disease, older adults, and

children. The article, “Fine

- Particulate Air Pollution and Life Expectancy in the United States” by C. Arden Pope, III, et al. published January 22, 2009

, in the New England Journal of Medicine evaluate d the role PM 2.5 reductions occurri ng in the 1980s and 1990s had on the increased life expectancy observed over that period. The study found that a reduction of 10 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m 3 ) of PM 2.5 was associated with an average increase in life expectancy of

7.3 months.

PM 2.5 has significant environmental impacts, including acid rain and stream eutrophication. PM 2.5 also affects visibility (regional haze ) through the scattering and absorption of light. Fine particles, similar in size to the wavelength of light, are most efficient, per unit of mass, at reducing visibility. Soiling and materials damage can also be caused by PM 2.5 in the air.

The United S tates Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) promulgated PM 2.5 national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) in 1997 after evaluating hundreds of health studies and conducting an extensive peer review process. The EPA established an annual primary (health

- based) and secondary (welfare

- based)

standard of 1 5.0 μg/m 3 , based on the 3

- year average of annual mean PM 2.5 concentrations. The EPA also established a primary and secondary 24

- hour

standard of 65 μg/m 3 determined by the 3

- year average of the 98th perce nt ile of

24

- hour concentrations. In 2006, the EPA promulgated a revised 24

- hour PM 2.5 standard of 35 μg/m 3 determined by the 3

- year average of the 98th percent ile of

24

- hour concentrations. The annual standard was not revised ( 71 F R 61 144 (October 17, 20 06)).- 2

- On December 17, 2004, the EPA issued air quality designations for the 1997

PM 2.5 standard based on 2001

- 2003 air qu ality monitoring data

. The final designations were published in the Federal Register on January 5, 2005 (70 FR 944). The designa tion s became effective on April 5, 2005. The EPA designated eight areas c omprised of all or portions of 21 counties in Pennsylvania

as PM 2.5 nonattainment areas. On April 5, 2005, the EPA published a supplemental notice changing the designation of certain ar eas from nonattainment to attainment based on newly available PM 2.5 quality

- assured, and certified air quality data from 2002

- 2004. The EPA supplemental notice was published in the Federal Register on April 14, 2005 (70 FR 19844 ). Mercer County was the o nly county in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (Commonwealth or Pennsylvania)

for which EPA changed the designation for the area from nonattainment to

attainment based on the 2002

- 2004 air quality data

.

The Lancaster Area , consisting of Lancaster County

, was one of eight areas in Pennsylvania designated by t he EPA as nonattainment for the 1997 PM 2.5 N AAQS. The Lancaster Area w as designated nonattainment because the area

violated the 1997 annual PM 2.5 standard of 15.0 μg/m 3 based on 2001

- 20 03 monitoring d ata

. The Lancaster Area did not violate the 1997 24

- hour PM 2.5 NAAQS of 65 μg/m 3

.

On October 8 , 200 9 , the EPA promulgated air quality designations for the 2006

PM 2.5 standard based on 200 6

- 200 8 air quality monitoring data

. The final designations were pu blished in the Federal Register on November 13, 2009 (7 4 FR 58688 )

. The EPA designated seven areas c omprised of all or portions of

2 2 counties in Pennsylvania as PM 2.5 nonattainment areas. The designations

became effective on December 14, 2009

.

The La ncaster Area was one of seven areas in Pennsylvania designated by t he

EPA as nonattainment for the 2006 PM 2.5 N AAQS. The Lancaster Area w as designated nonattainment because the area violated the 2006 24

- hour PM 2.5 standard of 3 5.0 μg/m 3 based on 200 6

- 20 0 8 monitoring data

.

B. Sources of PM 2.5 and Precursor Pollutants of Concern

Fine particle pollution can be emitted directly or formed secondarily in the atmosphere. PM 2.5 emitted directly into the air in a stable solid or liquid c hemical form (including PM 2.5 that is formed near its source by condensation) is referred to as “primary” PM 2.5

. PM 2.5 is formed by chemical reactions of gases in the atmosphere is considered to be “secondary” PM 2.5 . The chemical composition of

PM 2.5 in an area depends on the mix of emissions, location, time of year, and

weather. The chemical composition of PM 2.5 can include sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, particle

- bound water, black (elemental) carbon, a great variety of organic compounds, and miscellaneous inorganic material

, such as dust and

metals.- 3

- Primary PM 2.5 includes soot from diesel engines, condensed organic material from incomplete combustion and compounds from condensation during combustion or smelting.

The atmospheric chemistry of PM 2.5 formati on is complex. Formation of secondary PM 2.5 depends on numerous factors

, including the relative concentration of precursors, atmospheric conditions and the interactions of precursors with each other and with other particles, clouds or fog. The

contributi on of different pre cursors will vary by location.

The principal forms of secondary PM 2.5 include:

 Sulfates, formed from emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) from power plants and industrial facilities ;

 Nitrates, formed from emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO X ) from power plants, vehicles, and other combustion sources ;

 Ammonium, formed primarily from emissions of ammonia (NH 3 ) from animal operations ; and

 Secondary organic aerosol

, formed from emissions of v olatile organic

c ompounds ( VOCs ) from incomplete combus tion and evaporation fr om a wide diversity of sources.

Because of the complexity and variability of the process of particulate matter formation, the EPA recognizes that effective control measures for PM 2.5 will vary

among nonattainment areas . This recogn ition was reflected in EPA’s

“ Implementation Guidance for the 2006 24

- Hour Fine Particle National Ambient Air Quality Standard, ” Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, EPA,

March 2, 2012 ( “Implementation Guidance for the 2006 24

- H our PM 2.5 NAAQS”)

. In the Implementation Guidance for the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS, EPA adopted the framework and policy approach the agency espoused in its implementation rule for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS, known as the “ Clean Air Fine Particle Implementation Rule ” (7 2 FR 20586 ; April 25, 2007) ( “I mplementation

R ule for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS” )

.

In its I mplementation R ule for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS, EPA had established general presumptive policies for assessing which PM 2.5 precursors should be evaluated for possible controls. 1 In that e arlier rule, t he EP A require d states to
evaluate control measures for SO 2 and primary PM 2.5 i n all locations. The EPA require d states to evaluate control measures for NO X unless a technical

demonstration is made to show that NO X emissions from sources in the state do not significantly contribute to PM 2.5 concentrations in the nonattainment area

. The EPA require d states to evaluate measures for VOC and NH 3 only if a

1 The EPA’s definition of “PM 2.5 attainment pla n precursor” can be found in 40 CFR Section 51.1000, which reads:

“ PM 2.5 attainment plan precursor means S0 2 and those other PM 2.5 precursors emitted by sources in the State which

the State must evaluate for emission reduction measures to be included in its PM 2.5 nonattainment area or maintenance area plan.”- 4

- technical demonstration is made to show VOC or NH 3 emissions significantly

contribute to PM 2.5 in the nonattainment area.

The EPA reaffirmed the appropriateness of these presumptions in its Implemen tation Guidance for the 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS. 2 Meanwhile, the

U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit was considering a challenge to the

I mplementation Rule for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS, in Natural Resources Defense

Council v. EPA , No. 08

- 1250 . On January 4, 2013, the Court handed down its ruling in that case

. T he C ourt granted the petitions for review and remanded the

case to EPA to re

- promul gate the rule pursuant to Subpart 4 of Part D of the Clean Air Act, rather than implementing it under Subpart 1, as EPA had done ( 706 F.3d 428 at 437(DC Cir. 2013) )

.

Shortly thereafter, EPA withdrew its Implemen tation Guidance for the 2006

24

- hour PM 2.5 N AAQS

. According to EPA’s June, 2013 withdrawal memorandum (see second page of memorandum) 3 , EPA withdrew the guidance in response to the Court’s decision in Natural Resources Defense Council v. EPA

, No. 08

- 1250

.

This maintenance plan demonstrates mainte nance of the standard s consistent with the Court’s ruling. In general, the C ourt’s decision (for the 1997 NAAQS and to

the extent it would be extrapolated to the 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS) could affect an area’s nonattainment classification, certain deadli nes, and the impacts of failing to attain timely, and could impose a deadline for implementation of reasonably available and best available control measures ( 706 F.3d at 436, n. 6 )

. Since the Lancaster Area is already attaining the 1997 annual and 2006 24

- Hour

PM 2.5 NAAQS, however, those considerations are not relevant for this maintenance plan. The co urt noted that PM 2.5 precursors, including ammonia and VOCs, are presumptively regulated in PM 2.5 nonattainment areas under Subpart 4, pointing specifically to section 189(e), which applies to control of major stationary sources of PM 10 [the court stated that PM 10 includes PM 2.5 throughout Subpart 4] ( 706 F.3d at 436, n. 7, and at 437, n. 10 )

. A ccording to CAA

Section 189(e), control requirements applicable for major stationary sources of

PM 10 also apply to major stationary sources of PM 10 precursors , except where the Administrator determines that major stationary sources do not contribute significantly to PM 10 levels that exceed the standard in the area; Sec tion 189(e) also requires EPA to issue guidelines regarding the application of Subsection (e). Pennsylvania assessed emissions of PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC and NH 3 for the

maintenance demonstration

.

2 EPA wrote: “The EPA believes that these same presumptions would be appropriately applied with respect to the

2006 24

- hour PM 2.5 NAAQS as well.” See, Implementation Guidance for the 2006 24

- hour PM 2.5 NAAQS, page 3,

footnote 8.

3 “Withdrawal of Implem entation Guidance for the 2006 24

- Hour Fine Particle ( PM 2.5 ) National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS),” Stephen D. Page, EPA, June 6, 2013.- 5

- T his State Implementation Plan ( SIP) revision provides emi ssions information for all pollutants ( PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC and NH 3 ), as required by EPA’s guidance entitled, “Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze. Regulations.” 4

C. Purpose a nd Structure o f t his SIP Revision

In December 2004

, after consultation with states and receipt of public input, the EPA designated eight areas in Pennsylvania

, compris ing all or part s of

21 Pennsylvania counties

, as PM 2. 5 nonattainment areas for 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS

based on 2001

- 2003 air qu ality monitoring data

. Under Section 110 of the Clean Air Act ( CAA )

, Pennsylvania is required to develop a revision to the SIP to
demonstrate how the Lancaster Area will attain the 1997 s tandard by April 2010, meet emission reduction requirements in the CAA and ensure that in the event of a future violation or failure to meet emission reduction milestones, the area is brought back to atta inment as quickly as possible.

However, o n Septembe r 25, 2009

, the EPA determined that the Lancaster Area

had attained the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS based on quality assured, quality controlled and certified ambient air monitoring data that show the area ha d monitored

attainment based on 200 6

- 200 8 data (“Clean Data Determination”) (74 FR 48863)

. This final action suspended the requirements for this area to

submit an attainment demonstration and associated reasonably available control measures, reasonable further progress plans, contingency measures and other planni ng SIP revision s related to the attainment of the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS for so long as the area continues to attain the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS 5

.

On November 13, 2009 (74 FR 58688) , after consultation with states and receipt of public input, the EPA designated seven areas in Pennsylvania

, compris ing all or parts of 2 2 Pennsylvania counties

, as 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS nonattainment areas

based on 200 6

- 200 8 air quality monitoring data

. Under Section 110 of the Clean Air Act ( CAA ) , Pennsylvania is required to develop a revision to the SIP to

demonstrate how the Lancaster Area will attain the standard by December 2014

, meet emission reduction requirements in the CAA and ensure that in the event of a future violation or failure to meet emission reduction milestones, the area is

br ought back to atta inment as quickly as possible.

However, o n March 29, 2012, the EPA determined that the Lancaster Area had

attained the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS based on quality assured, quality controlled and certified ambient air monitoring data that show the area had monitored attainment

4 Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Qualit y Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations

– EPA

- 454/R

- 05

- 001, August, 2005, updated November, 2005.

5 The EPA followed this action on July 29, 2011 (76 FR 45424) with a statutorily required determination under

Section 179(c) of the CAA, that the La ncaster Area attained the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS by the applicable attainment date of April 5, 2010. EPA based this determination on complete, quality assured, and certified ambient air monitoring data that show the area monitored attainment for the 2007

- 2009 m onitoring period.- 6

- based on 2008

- 2010 data (“Clean Data Determination”) (7 7 FR 18922 ). This final action suspended the requirements for this area to submit an attainment demonstration and associated reasonably available control measures, reason able further progress plans, contingency measures and other planning SIP revisions

related to the attainment of the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS for so long as the area

continues to attain the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS.

EPA’s determination s of attainment and the Clean Data De termination s d id not

“ redesignate ” the area as “attainment.” The Lancaster Area remain s a designated

nonattainment area for the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS until the Commonwealth submits, and EPA approves, a Request for R edesignation and a Maintenance P lan showing the area can mainta in the standard s for at least

10 years after redesignation

. N onattainment new source review continue s to apply until EPA redesignates the area as attainment ( 72 FR 20603 )

. Transportation conformity and genera l conformity also a pply ; they will continue to apply to the area even after redesignation by EPA as attainment

. The C lean

D ata D etermination s do not suspend the CAA Sec tion 172(c)(3) requirement to
establish a comprehensive inventory for all pollutants considered potential

precursor s to PM 2.5 and for direct emissions of PM 2.5.

This SIP revision includes the Maintenance P lan for the Lancaster Area for the

1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS and the 200 7 comprehensive inventory required

under Sec tion 172(c)(3) of the CAA for point, are a, highway and nonroad sources

of direct PM 2.5 , PM 10 (particles less than 10 microns in diameter), SO 2 , NO X , VOC and NH 3

. The 2007 comprehensive inventory also serves as the attainment year inventory representing a level of emissions sufficient for the La ncaster Area

to attain the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS.

To demonstrate maintenance of the PM 2.5 NAAQS for this area, Pennsylvania is

show ing that the future emissions of PM 2.5 and its precursors w ill remain at levels that will provide for maintenance of the PM 2.5 NAAQS for at least 10 years after redesignation , taking economic, population and travel growth into account ( See, EPA, “Procedures for Processing Requests to Redesignate Areas to Attainment,” John Calcagni (September 4, 1992) (1992 Calcagni Memo) )

. This Maintenance

P lan contains a n attainment year inventory for 2007 and demonstrates that emissions will not be greater i n 2017 and 2025 than the attainment year , with the exception of NH 3

. The projected increase in NH 3 emissions does not present a

conc ern for maintaining the NAAQS because PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X and VOC emissions are all projected to continue to decline in the Lancaster Area. The plan

describes emission reduction measures that have been previously adopted; it neither changes existing measures nor adopts additional measures

. The plan

indicates how M aintenance P lan progress will be tracked and identifies measures that would be available to promptly correct any NAAQS violation.

Section 107(d)(3)(E) of the CAA requires that a Maintenance Plan be fully approved by the EPA before an area can be redesignated as attainment. The- 7

- Maintenance Plan is considered a SIP revision under Section 110 of the CAA

. A state may submit the R equest for Redesignation and the Maintenance Plan at the

same time and fe deral rulemaking on both may proceed on a parallel track.

Pursuant to the requirements of Section 107(d)(3)(E) of the CAA, t he R equest for Redesignation submitted concurrently with this Maintenance Plan indicates that

the Lancaster Area has attained the N AAQS and that attainment wa s due to permanent and enforceable control measures. The R equest for Redesignation also

demonstrates that the Commonwealth has met all of the regulatory and planning requirements under the CAA for the Lancaster Area that we re du e before the date

of the R equest for R edesignation

.

In Section 5 of the 1992 Calcagni Memo, EPA re commends the following to ensure maintenance of the NAAQS:

 The state should continue to operate an appropriate air quality monitoring

network in order to ve rify the area’s attainment status (addressed in

Section IV of th is Plan);

 The state should develop an emissions inventory to identify the level of emissions sufficient to attain the NAAQS. This “attainment year

i nventory” was developed for 2007 ;

 The sta te may demonstrate maintenance by show ing that the future emissions of a pollutant or its precursors will not exceed the level of the attainment inventory over at least 10 years following redesignation, taking economic growth into account. The Pennsylvani a Department of

Environmental Protectio n ( DEP o r Department) has develop ed emission

inventories for 2025 and for 2017 , an interim year between the attainment year and the maintenance year (addressed in Section II of this Plan) ;

 The Commonwealth should ens ure that it has th e legal authority to imp lement and enforce all measures necessary to attain and maintain the NAAQS, and indicate how maintenance plan progress will be tracked (addressed in Sections III and V of this Plan and the R equest for Redesignation ); and

 The Commonwealth should identify measures that would be available to promptly correct any NAAQS violation (addressed in Section VI of this Plan).

This document describes how the Commonwealth will meet those criteria.

Th is Maintenance Plan demonst rates that the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS will

be maintained for at least 10 years after redesignation of the Lancaster Area to

attainment of the standard s

. T he Maintenance Plan shows that emission leve ls of- 8

- PM 2.5 and its precursors over the 1 0 years follo wing redesignation remain at levels that will provide for maintenance of the PM 2.5 NAAQS

, even considering growth in populatio n and vehicle miles traveled.

Th is Maintenance Plan also shows that t he following state and federal programs

will ensure the cont inuing decline of PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X and VOC emissions :

 The Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) ;

 Emission limits for large industrial boilers;

 State regulation of cement kilns, large stationary internal combustion engines , and smaller sources o f NO X ;

 State regu lations incorporating by reference the federal Prevention of Significant De terioration (PSD) regulations;

 State requirements for Best Available Technology ( BAT ) ;

 State regulation of the sulfur content of fuel oil ;

 State regulation of VOC emissions from a dh esives, s ealants, p rimers and

s olvents;

 The Pennsylvania and federal new motor vehicle emission control programs for p assenger and light

- duty trucks;

 The Pennsylvania and federal heavy

- duty di esel emission control

programs;

 Federal fuel programs for highwa y vehicles and nonroad mobile equipment; an d

 Federal regulation of offroad diesel and gasoline

- powered vehicles and equipment.

Emission reductions from Pennsylvania’s Diesel

- Powered Motor Vehicle Idling

Act , Act 124 of 2008 (Idling Act)

, were not included in the 2017 and 2025 emission inventories, and, thus, were not relied upon for the demonstration of

maintenance. The Idling Act was approved by EPA as a SIP revision on August 1, 2011 (76 FR 45705). Similarly, NO X and VOC emission reductions from Pennsyl vania’s Outdoor Wood

- Fired Boilers regulation were not included in

the 2017 and 2025 emission inventories, and

, thus, were not relied upon for the

demonstrat ion of maintenance. The Outdoor Wood

- Fired Boiler regulation was published in the Pennsylvania Bul letin on October 2, 2010 (40 Pa. B. 5571)

, and approved by EPA as a SIP revision on September 20, 2011 (76 FR 58114). Emission reductions from these measures may nonetheless assist the Lancaster Area in maintaining the PM 2.5 NAAQS.

In th is Maintenance Pla n, the Department provide s assurances that it will continue to operate the ambient air quality monitoring network in order to track

maintenance of the standard s and to evaluate emissions inventories periodically compared to the projections provided in the plan. The Department also provide s a list of potential contingency measures that it would consider to correct any violation of the NAAQS that occurs af ter redesignation of the area.- 9

- Eight years following redesignation, the Commonwealth will submit a revi sed plan that ensures attainment of the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS through 2035

.

D. Public P articipation

Requirements for a public comment process are set forth in Section 110(a)(2) of the CAA, 40 CFR Section 51.102(d) and Section 7.5 of the Pennsylvania Air

Pollution Control Act. 35 P.S. Section 4007.5 (b)

. On March 8, 2014, t he Department provided not ice of a public comment period and the opportunity for a hearing on the Lancaster Area Maintenance Plan for the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS , 2007 comprehensi ve inventory required by Section 172(c)(3) of the CAA, and the Request to Redesignate the Lancaster Area to attainment for the

1997 and 2006 PM 2. 5 standard s

. The public comment period closed April 11, 2014. The Department scheduled the public hearing to occur on April 10, 2014, but no persons expressed interest in presenting testimony or attending. Therefore, the Department cancelled the hearing. The Department received comments from one commentator, which have been addressed in a Comment and Response document.

II

. E MISSION I NVENTORIES

To demonstrate maintenance of the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS for th e Lancaster A rea, Pennsylvania is show ing that the future emissions of PM 2.5 and its precursors w ill remain at levels that will provide for maintenance o f the PM 2.5 NAAQS for at least 10 years, taking economic, population and travel growth into account. This Maintenance P lan

contains a n attainment year inventory for 2007 and demonstrates that emissions will not be greater than the attainment year in 2017 and 2025

, with the exception of NH 3

. The projected increase in NH 3 emissions does not present a concern for maintaining the NAAQS because the emissions of all other pollutants are projected to continue to decline

in the Lancaster Area. This Mainte nance Plan also contains a 2002 baseline inventory that represents the emissions present when the Lancaster Area did not meet the 1997 and

2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS. In addition, this SIP revision fulfills the requirement for a comprehensive inventory for the Lancaster Area under 40 CFR Section 51.1008 to meet
the requirements of S ection 172(c)(3) of the CAA

. As specified by the EPA, the pollutants inventoried by Pennsylvania include direct PM 2.5 , PM 10 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC, and

NH 3

. Information on the manmade sources of thes e pollutants was compiled for:

 “Stationary point sour ces” (or “point” sources)

, which are sources for which the Department collects individual emissions

- related information. Generally

, they represent major stationary sources but may be smaller.

 “ Station ary a rea sources
, ” which are industrial

, commercial , and residential sources too small or too numerous to be handled individually . These include but

are not limited to commercial and residential open burning, architectural and

industrial maintenance coati ngs application and clean

- up, consumer product use, and vehicle refueling at service stations. Where there is overlap between- 10

- stationary point sources and stationary area sources, the area source values are adjusted to remove any double counting.

 “Highwa y vehicles

, ” which include passenger cars and light

- duty trucks, other trucks, buses and motorcycles.

 “Nonroad sources

, ” which encompass a diverse collection of engines

, including

but not limited to outdoor power equipment, recreational vehicles, farm and construction machinery, lawn and garden equipment, industrial equipment,

recreational marine vessels , commercial marine vessels, locomotives, ships, and

aircraft.

Pennsylvania and other Northeastern and Mid

- Atlantic states participated in a regional

effo rt to refine the emissions inventory and to compile a regional emissions inventory

. The Mid

- Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA) coordinated that regional effort, which allowed states to pool their resources to compile a regional

emission s inventory for the purpose of conducting the regional modeling analysis used in Pennsylvania’s air quality management p lanning efforts to attain the 8

- hour ozone NAAQS and the PM 2.5 NAAQS, and to prepare the regional haze plan.

A. Emissions Inventory Met hodology for Base line Year (2002) and Attainment Year (2007) Emissions

Stationary Point Sources. The 2002 and 2007 stationary point source

in ventories were based on emissions reported to the Department by facilities. The Department requires owners and o perators of larger facilities to submit annual production figures and emission calculations each year. Throughput data are multiplied by emission factors from Factor Information Retrieval (FIRE) Data System and the EPA’s publication series AP

- 42 and are b ased on Source Classification Code (SCC). Each process has at least one SCC assigned to it. If the owners and operators of facilities provide more accurate emission data based upon other factors, these emission estimates supersede those calculated using SCC codes. Appendix A

- 1 includes information on stationary point source emission methodology, and Appendix A

- 2 is the data set for facility 2002 annual

emissions. Appendix A

- 3 includes the data se t for facility 2007 annual emissions

, as well as projected facility emissions for 2017 and 2025. Appendix A

- 4 is a table documenting the banked emissions reduction credits for the Lancaster Area

in the 2017 and 2025 emission projection s

.

Condensable PM is a vapor or gas at stack temperature that condenses to a l iquid

or solid at stack exit. Condensable emissions from electric generating units ( EGU s ) were not reported uniformly by all facilities

. Because of the need to consider the effect of condensable emissions from EGUs on regional haze and fine particles, t he 2007 inventory data was augmented, utilizing the condensable emission factors for EGUs developed for MARAMA i n 2008 to calculate

condensable PM emissions where that data was mi ssing . [T he 2002 inventory did- 11

- not include condensable PM for many facilitie s and was not augmented.] Appendix C

- 4 contains the technical memorandum describing how the emission factors were developed. The general process is to use the emission factors and heat input to calculate the condensable PM ( PM

- CON ) emissions, and then to perform the gap filling for compounds missing from the facility

- reported

emissions

.

Stationary Area Sources

. Stationary a rea source emissions are generally estimated by multiplying an emission factor by some known indicator or collective activity for ea ch area source category at the county level. Pennsylvania

estimates emissions from stationary area sources using emission factors and SCC

codes in a m ethod similar to that used for stationary point s ources. Emission factors may also be derived from resea rch and guidance documents if those

documents are more accurate than FIRE and AP

- 42 factors. Throughput estimates are derived from county

- level activity data, by apportioning national or statewide activity data to counties, from census numbers, and from c ounty employee numbers. County employee numbers are based upon North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes to establish that those numbers are

spe cific to the industry covered.

Pennsylvania’s 2002 stationary area source emissions inventor y was developed in accordance with EPA guidance 6 and was submitted to the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) to satisfy the requirements of the Consolidated Emissions Reporting Rule

.

EPA emissions inventories and emission estimation tools were used to cre ate the 2007 area source inventory. For many area source categories, the most recent

EPA data was used. These categories included ammonia emissions from livestock and fertilizers which came from a recent application of the Carnegie Mellon University (CMU ) ammonia model to produce 2007 emissions ; output from a version of the Residential Wood Combustion (RWC) model developed by EPA and run with updated 2007 data to produce emission estimates for that

source category ; and EPA data on wildfire emissions devel oped as part of EPA’s SMARTFIRE system.

The EPA develops area source emission estimation methodologies and estimates

for the NEI on a three

- year cycle. Where 2008 NEI data were used to fill missing categories in the 2007 inventory, no growth adjustment w as made to the emissions with the assumption that activity in 2008 and 2007 was similar.

For fugitive dust area sources, the 2007 inventory was adjusted to apply the EPA

PM “ transport factors” to fugitive dust sources.

6 Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations

– EPA

- 454/R

- 05

- 001, August, 2005, updated November, 2005.- 12

- More specific information on the pr ocedure used for each industry type is

contained in Pennsylvania 2002 Area Source Criteria Air Pollutant Emission

Estimation Methods , (E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc., February 2004)

, which is contained in Appendi x B

- 1

. Appendix B

- 2 co ntains the methodolog y for the 2007 Pennsylvania area source inve ntory. Additional methodology information is

availa ble in the technical support document for the 2007 regional inventory wh ich is contained in Appendix C

- 1 . Appendix B

- 3 is a table containing stationary area

so urce emissions data for 2002 for the Lancaster Area . Appendix B

- 4 contains

the stationary area source emissions data for 2007 , 2017 and 2025 for the

Lancaster Area

.

Highway Vehicle Sources. E PA’s MOVES 2010 ( M o tor V ehicle E mission

S imulator) is the offic ial model for estimating air pollution emissions from onroad

m obile sources including buses, cars, trucks and motorcycles. MOVES2010 replaces MOBILE6.2

, the previous mobile source model

. Therefore, t he Department employed MOVES2010 to estimate the onroad emissions inventory for 2002, 2007, 2017 and 2025

.

Additional information on highway emission method ology is available in Appendix D. Appendix D

- 1 summarizes the methodology and data inputs used to produce the mobile emissions inventory. Appendix D

- 2 p rovides the 2002 base

year , 2007 attainment year and 2017 and 2025 projections of mobile (highway) vehicle miles travelled ( VMT ) and annual PM 2.5 direct and prec ursor emissions. Appendix D

- 3 describes the model inputs used to generate emission factors for a specific area. Some examples of th e inputs described in Appendix D

- 3 are the type and frequency of vehicle emission testing, the fuel types required in the area, temperatures by month, and fleet a ge. The summary in Appendix D

- 3 indicates

when default information contained in the model is used rather than specific area

i nformation.

Nonroad Sources

.

The 2002 Emissions Inventory

. The 2002 emissions for the majority of nonroad emission source categories and pollutants were estimated using the EPA NONRO AD 2005 m odel. The NONROAD model estimates emissions for diesel, gasoli ne, liquefied petroleum

gas , and compressed natural gas

- fueled nonroad equipment types and includes growth factors. The National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) was used to

estimate emi ssions of ammonia from sources contained in the NONROAD model. The NONROAD model does not estimate emissions from aircraft, locomotives or commercial marine vessels. Emissions from aircraft, locomotives, and commercial marine vessels were estimated using EPA guidance and best available information. If specific local operational data was available, that data was used to

estimate emissions. State and national data was used if local data was

unavailable. The Lancaster Area does not have emissions from com mercial

marine vessels.- 13

- Appendix E

- 1 is the technical document providing the methodology and description of the procedures used to generate 2002 county

- level pollutant emission estimates for nonroad mobile engines included in the EPA’s
NONROAD2005 model, locomotive engines, and aircraft operations. The t able of 2002 nonroad emissions data sorted by source category is available as Appendix E

- 2.

Aircraft Emissions in 2002

. Emissions from commercial aircraft operations for 2002 were estimated using the EPA

- approved Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS) 4.20, the latest version available at the tim e the inventory was developed. The Department estimated emissions using operations data obtained from the United States Department of Transportation, Fe deral Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) for commercial aircraft operations and the TAF and the Airnav.com web site for military operations. Using this operations data, emissions were modeled directly using the

EDMS.

Emissions pr oduced by aircraft at small airports were estimated by using airport operation statistics, which can be found at www.airnav.com and the Federal FAA’s TAF Detailed Report. An emissions factor for a typical general avia tion single engine, multi

- engine, and jet engine aircraft were derived by averaging the

emissions factors from a basket of emission factors for common aircraft of each of the three types of aircraft. Emission factors and operational characteristics

contai ned in EDMS were used. The proportion of operations among the three groups of aircraft was determined by examining the number of each aircraft type based at each airport. For military operations at small airports, the type of aircraft

and its emission fa ctors are sometimes identifiable. If not, emission factors calculated to represent an “average” military aircraft are used. Growth was estimated using estimates of future operations found in the FAA TAF Detailed Report.

Railroad Emissions

. F or 2002 loc omotive emissions, the Department projected emissions from a 1999 survey when the Department obt ained fuel use statistics

from C l ass II and III railroads. For C lass I railroads, which produ ce most of the

emissions in the Commonwealth, the Department condu cted a 2002 inventory of all railroads that operate in Pennsylvania beca use the 1999 fuel use data for

C lass I railroads was skewed by gridlock caused by the acquisition of Conrail by

CSX and Norfolk Southern. Both Conrail and Norfolk Southern suffered ma jor gridlock in Pennsylvania and beyond during 1999. Consequently, fuel consumption and air emissions for these two railroads were greatly reduced in 1999. The Department requested and received 2002 fuel usage from these railroad companies and developed a 2002 emissions inventory for them. Emissions were generated using EPA emission factors.- 14

- The 2007 Emissions Inventory. The 2007 inventory for the majority of nonroad cat egories was generated using

NMIM 2008 of which the NONROAD m odel is a part. The NONR OAD model estimates emissions for diesel, gas oline, liquefied petroleum gas , and compressed natural gas

- fueled nonroad equipment types and includes growth factors. For

nonroad vehicle the NMIM does not estimate emissions from aircraft,

locomotives or comm ercial marine vessels. Emissions from aircraft, locomotives,

and commercial marine vessels were estimate d using EPA guidance and best available information. If specific local operational data was available, that data

was used to estimate emissions. Stat e and national data was used if local data was

unavailable. NM IM includes emissions from airport ground support equipment. However, emissions for airport ground support equipment calculated by NMIM

were removed because EPA considers the emissions calcula ted by the EDMS to
be better estimates of the emissions from airport ground support equipment. Growth estimates for source categories modeled by NMI M are included in the model. The EPA default values were used for most categories

.

Aircraft. For airport emissions, Pennsylvania used the database developed by EPA to support the 2008 NEI, as described in the technical support document for the development of the 2 007 inventory in Appendix C

- 1.

Railroad Emissions

. The Department used the emissions inventory developed by the Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC). Emissions from

2007 and 2008 were considered to be identical. ERTAC completed a nationwide inventory with the assistance of the railroad associations and submitted the inventory to the EPA. The ERTAC inventory was the accepted inventory for the 2008 NEI and was loaded into the EPA’s Emission Inventory System (EIS). The Department made slight modifications in cooperation with ERTAC that resulted in changes in emissi ons of smaller Cl ass III railroads operating in Pennsylvania which included locomotive yard operations. The Department had developed its own inventory using information received from a statewide survey of railroad operational data. The Department determined that ERTAC’s methodology and inventory were similar to the D epartment’s method except in the cases of some

smal ler railroads mentioned above.

E RTAC developed an emissions inventory for Class I, II, and III line haul activity based on fuel use, tonnage carried by the r ailroad using each individual rail link,

current in

- use locomotive emission standards, and rail link use. Track grade and locomotive power settings were not considered. ERTAC based their yard

locomotive emissions on (1) name and location of rail yards, ( 2) number of switchers operating per yard, (3) the tier/year of switchers, (4) annual fuel use (gal lons /y ear ) for switchers per yard, (5) approximate duty cycle or just percent of time in idle for operating switchers, and (6) temporal characteristics of th e switcher’s use.- 15

-

B

. Base line Year ( 2002 ) Emissions

An emission inventory is an estimate of the emissions from sources in a particular

area. The Department developed an emission inventory for 2002 in accordance with EPA guidance 7

. The 2002 emissions in ventory represents the emissions present when the Lancaster Area did not meet the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS

. The 2002 base line year inventory i ncludes the pollutants PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC, and NH 3

. The inventory consists of sources in four sectors: stationary point

sources, stationary area sources, highway vehicle sources and nonroad sources. The 2002 inventory is not directly comparable to the 2007, 2017 and 2025 inventories because of changes in inventory methodology and the adjustment

made to acc ount for condensable PM emissions from EGUs in the 2007, 2017 and

2025 emission inventories. Table II

- 1 summarizes the emissions for 2002.

Table I I

- 1: Lancaster Area 2002 Annual Emissions ( Tons per Year )

Lancaster 2002 PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 NOx VOC NH 3 Stati onary Point Sources 380 577 498 1,368 3,188 12

Area Sources 3,612 20,026 2,735 1,739 9,887 15,994 Highway Vehicle Sources 541 628 362 17,466 6,481 222

Non

- Road Sources 322 337 295 4,001 5,009 3

Totals 4,856 21,569 3,890 24,575 24,566 16,231

C

. Attain ment Year ( 2007 ) Annual Emissions (Tons per Year)

An emissions inventory of 2007 emissions of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC, and

NH 3 for the Lancaster Area identifies PM and PM precursor emissions during the period when the Lancaster Area was attaining the 1 997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS

. Table I I

- 2 s ummarizes the emissions for 200 7. While , as noted above, the 2002 emissions inventory is not directly comparable to the 2007, 2017 and 2025 inventories due to changes in inventory methodology and the adjustment made to account for condensable PM emissions from EGUs in the 2007, 2017 and 2025

emission inventories

, PM 2.5 , SO 2, NO X , VOC, and NH 3 emissions decreased by

23 percent

, 13 percent

, 18 percent , 21 percent and 3 percent , respectively

, from

2002 to 2007

. T he 2002 inventory was based on emissions reported to the Department by the owners and operators of the facilities

. The 2002 reports did not include condensable PM for many facilities. The 2007 EGU inventory was

a ugmented utilizing condensable PM emission factor s for EGUs developed for

MARAMA in 2008 to calculate condensable PM emissions where that data was

mi ssing

. The projected 2017 and 2025 PM 2.5 emissions for EGUs also include

condensable PM emissions bec ause they were projected from the 2007 inventory.

7 Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations

– EPA

- 454/R

- 05

- 001, August, 2005. Updated November,

2005.- 16

- Tab le II

- 2: Lancaster Area 2007 Annual Emissions (Tons per Year)

Lancaster 2007 PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 NOx VOC NH 3 Stationary Point Sources 254 409 102 1,147 2,691 8

Area Sources 2,691 10,218 3,030 1,827 6,675 15,551 Highway Vehicle Sources 480 574 102 13,895 5, 529 207

Non

- Road Sources 290 309 148 3,173 4,627 3

Totals 3,715 11,511 3,382 20,041 19,522 15,769

D

. Growth Projection Methodologies for 2017 and 202 5

This section describes the data, methods, and assumptions utilized in developing

estimates o f emissi ons changes between 2007 and interim year 2017 and maintenance year 2025

. Appendix C

- 2 contains the technical support document

for the d evelopment of the 2017 e mission s inventory . Appendix C

- 3 contains the technical support document for the development o f the 2025 emissions inventory.

The document s prov ide details on the specific factors, control assumptions, and implementation schedules used in the emission projection calcula tions for each source category. MARAMA coordinated development of the projecti on inventories for the regional inventory, consisting of the states in the

Mid

- Atlantic/Northeast Visibility U nion and Virginia (MANE

- VU+VA).

Significant infrastructure development to extract natural gas from the Marcellus

Shale formation in some Pennsyl vania counties has occurred

. Point and a rea source emissions result from the placement of drilling equipment, gathering lines and compressor stations. The Lancaster Area has not experienced any Marcellus Shale development and is not expected to experienc e any of this development in

the future.

EGUs

. A nnual 2007 EGU point emissions were “ grown ” to 2017 and 2025 using growth factors based on AEO2011 Table 96

- Electricity Generation by Electricity Market Module Region and Fuel Source

. The appropriate AEO 2011 growth factor was applied to the 2007 emissions to calculate a “growth only”

emission value for 2025. P ost

- 2007 controls or shut downs were applied on a

unit

- by

- unit basis. The control factors were applied to the grown emissions to calculate a “grow th and control” emission value for 2025. A more detailed description of the methodology used to project emissions from EGUs is located in the technical support document for the development of the 2025 emi ssions inventory in Appendix C

- 3

.

Non

- EGU Point So urces and Stationary Area Sources. For non

- EGU point

sources and stationary area sources

, the emission projections for the 2017 a nd

2025 were based on Version 3 .3 of the 2007 MANE

- VU+VA inventory, which

was adjusted to apply the EPA PM “transport factors” to fugitive dust area

sources.- 17

- The methodology for projecting emissions to 2017 and 2025 is documented in the technical support documents for the development of the 2017 and 2025 emissions inventories contained in Appendix C

- 2 and Appendix C

- 3, respectiv ely. These documents were prepared for MARAMA as part of an effort to assist states in developing maintenance plans for fine particles. The documents describe the data sources, methods, and r esults for emission forecasts.

NonEGU point source and station ary area source grow th factors were developed using :

 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) fuel c onsumption forecasts;

 State

- level employment projections by NAICS code; and

 Other state

- specific emission projection data.

Generally

, AEO projection factors were used for fuel consumption sources and employment data for other source categories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes the AEO annually. The AEO contains long

- term projections of energy supply, demand and prices. AEO2010 fuel

- use fore casts were available during inventory development. After AEO2011 was published, MARAMA compared the AEO2010 and AEO2011 projections. Minor differences were found for most categories. Based on this analysis, t he AEO 2010

fuel

- use forecasts were used for a ll residential, commercial and industrial sector fuel use, except for industri al natural gas usage, where AEO 2011 projections were

used.

Predicted declines in fuel use and employment resulted in negative growth factors

for some non

- EGU point source and st ationary area source categories. Consequently, for some categories, emissions are lower for the projected future years than for the base year, eve n before the application of control assumptions. Because of the possibility that facilities could apply for and sell Emission Reduction Credits (ERCs) at the level of the base year inventory, Pennsylvania opted for the conservative approach of assuming no growth (growth factor=1) for

non

- EGU point source categories with negative AEO or employment growth

factors.

As discussed previously , b ecause the 2002 stationary point source inventory was based on emissions reported to the Department by facilities and did not include

condensable PM for many facilities, the emissions invento ry shows an apparent

increase of dire ct PM 2.5 emissions from stationary point sources in 2007, 2017 and 2025 compared with 2002.

Emission Reduction Credits (ERCs)

. ERCs can be created by a company if its emissions of certain pollutants are reduced more than what is necessary to fulfill

regu latory requirements. ERCs can be either bought or sold to meet offset requirements for business expansion in areas with air quality problems. Emissions credits are emissions reductions that may return to the airshed in the- 18

- future as companies elect to use them. To account for this potential increase

, emissions credits banked in Pennsylvania’s Emissions Reductions Credit Registry System were added to the projected inventor ies

.

Highway Vehicle Sources. The EPA’s a pproved highway vehicle emission model, M OVES 2010 , projects highway vehicle average fleet emission factors. State specific information was used where available and appropriate. Traffic forecasts were compiled using information from the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation’s ( PennDOT ) Traff ic Information System and

socioeconomic data. The Pennsylvania methodology for estimating highway

vehicle emissions is consistent with the April 2010 guidance published by the

EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality ( OTAQ ) entitled

, Technical

Guida nce on the Use of MO VES2010 for Emissions Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity

. Appendi ces D

- 1 throug h D

- 3 of this Maintenance Plan i nclude s pecific information on the highway emission s inventory methodology , d ata files of emissions estimates

and MOVES input paramete rs

.

As shown in Table II

- 3

, VMT for the future analysis year increases 36 percent
from 4.26 billion VMT in 2007 to 5.78 billion VMT in 2025 within the

nonattainment area

. Despite the growth in VMT, emissions of the most significant vehicle

- related precursor, NO X , are significantly lower in the future

a nalysis year

. The emissions shown in Table II

- 3 do not include a transportation conformity safety margin, which will be discussed later in this docum ent. See

, S ection III

- B relating to motor vehicle emission budgets for transportation conformity.

Table II

- 3 : Lancaster Area VMT (Miles) and Vehicle Emissions (Tons per Year)

Nonroad Sources

.

Nonroad Sources in NMIM

. Projected emissions for the ma jority of nonroad emission source categories and pollutants were estimated using the NMIM, which contains default assumptions for projected years. The NMIM estimates emissions for diesel, gas oline, liquefied petroleum gas , and compressed natural gas

- fuele d nonroad equipment types and includes growth factors. Control measures due to finalized emission standards for nonroad vehicles and engines are also accounted

for in NMIM. Baseline emissions are multiplied by growth and control factors to obtain project ed emissions.- 19

- Aircraft Emissions Growth

. Aircraft operations were projected to future years by applying activity growth using data on itinerant (ITN) operations at airports as reported in the FAA ’s Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) System for 2009

- 2030 (FAA 2 010). The ITN operations are defined as aircraft take

- offs or landings. This information is available for approximately 3300 individual airports. Actual

take

- offs and landings are reported for 2007 and projected take

- offs and landings are provided for a ll years up to 2030. New aircraft emission controls that will be

used in the future were also taken into account.

Railroad Emissions Growth

. MANE VU+VA inventory development relied on AEO2010 growth projections published in May 2010. There are separate projections for passenger rail and freight rail energy use. Passenger rail data from

AEO2010 Table A

- 7 was used to calculate the growth factor f or 2007

- 2017 and

2007

- 2025. These growth factors were applied to inter

- city passenger train

locomotives and i ndependent commuter rail systems. For freight ra il, the data

from AEO2010 Table A

- 7 was used to calculate the growth factor for 2007

- 2017

and 2007

- 2025. F reight rail annual growth factors for Class I line haul

, Class II/I II line haul , and yard switch loc omotives were used

.

Additional information about nonroad emission projection methodologies can also be found in Appendi ces C

- 2 and C

- 3, the technical support documents for the development of the 2017 and 2025 inventories, respectively. The t able of

nonro ad emissions data sorted by source category is available as Appendix E

- 3.

E

. Interim Year (2017 ) Emissions

Tab le II

- 4 sum marize s the emissions expected in 2017 . These emissions take activity and emissions growth and/or controls fro m 2007 in to accoun t. Appendix C , re lating to the regional emissions inventory and projection methodology , contains the technical support documents that describe the methodologies used to projec t the 2007 emissions to 201 7

.

Table II

- 4 : Lancaster Area Projected 2017 Emissions (Tons per Year)

Lancaster 2017 PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 NOx VOC NH 3 Stationary Point Sources 267 426 115 1,314 2,808 10

Area Sources 2,649 10,412 2,449 1,702 6,459 17,152 Highway Vehicle Sources* 249 317 37 6,916 2,965 148

Non

- Road Sources 182 196 5 1,775 2,753 4

Emission Reduction Credits 0 0 0 2 172 0

Totals 3,348 11,351 2,605 11,710 15,157 17,314
*A portion of the difference between attainment year and maintenance year emissions of PM 2.5 and NO X has been set aside as a transportation conformity safety marg in to accommodate unanticipated growth in highway vehicles. The hig hway vehicle emissions in Table II

- 4 reflect inclusion of that safety margin

.- 20

-

F

. Maintenance Year (202 5 ) Emissions

T able II

- 5 su mmarize s the emissio ns expected in 2025 . These emissions take activity and emissions growth and/or controls from 2007 into account. Appendix C, relating to the regional emissions inventory and projection methodology , contains the technical support documents that describe the methodologies used to project the 20 07 emissions to 2025

.

Table II

- 5: Lancaster Area Projected 2025 Emissions (Tons per Year)

Lancaster 2025 PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 NOx VOC NH 3 Stationary Point Sources 272 432 120 1,383 2,874 11

Area Sources 2,610 10,617 1,766 1,704 6,426 18,372 Highway Vehicle Sources* 185 284 39 4,447 1,868 144

Non

- Road Sources 132 143 5 1,310 2,240 4

Emission Reduction Credits 0 0 0 2 172 0

Totals 3,200 11,476 1,930 8,847 13,580 18,531
*A portion of the difference between attainment year and maintenance year emissions of PM 2.5 and NO X has been set aside as a transportation conformity safety margin to accommodate unanticipated growth in highway vehicles. The highway vehicle emissions in Table II

- 5 reflect inclusion of that safety margin

.

G. Maintenance Plan Emissions Test

To demonstrate maintenance of the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS for this area, Pennsylvania must show that the future emissions of PM 2.5 and its precursors will remain at levels that provide for maintenance of the PM 2.5 NAAQS for at least

10 years after rede signation , taking economic, population a nd travel growth into

account.

While EPA adopted in its Implemen tation Guidance for the 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS the presumptions related to PM 2.5 precursors in its I mplementation R ule

for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS , Penn sylvania recognizes the C ourt decision in Natural Resources Defense Council v. EPA , No. 08

- 1250, 706 F.3d 428 (DC

Cir. 2013) and EPA’s subsequent withdrawal of the Implementation Guidance for

the 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS

. The court noted that PM 2.5 precur sors, including ammonia and VOCs, are presumptively regulate d in PM 2.5 nonattainment areas under Subpart 4 , pointing specifically to section 189(e), which applies to control of major stationary sources of PM 10 [the court stated that

PM 10 includes PM 2.5 thr oughout Subpart 4] ( 706 F.3d at 436, n. 7, and at 437,

n. 10 )

. According to CA A Section 189(e), control requirements applicable for major stationary sources of PM 10 also apply to major stationary sources of PM 10
precursors , except where the Administrator determines that major stationary sources do not contribute significantly to PM 10 levels that exceed the standard in the area; section 189(e) also requires EPA to issue guidelines regarding the application of subsection (e). Pennsylvania assessed emissions of PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC and NH 3 for the maintenance demonstration.- 21

- This Maintenance Plan contains an attainment year inventory for 2007 and

demonstrates that emissions of PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X and VOC, including emissions in the transportation conformity safe ty margin for PM 2.5 and NO X , will not be greater in 2017 and 2025 than in the attainment year, as shown in Table II

- 7.

Emissions of NOx are projected to decrease from 2007 to 2025 by approximately
11,194 tons ( 56 percent ). Emissions of PM 2.5 , SO 2 and VOC also decrease from 2007 to 2025 by approximately 516 tons ( 14 percent ), 1, 451 tons ( 4 3 percent ),

and 5,942 tons ( 30 percent ), respectively. Over the same time period, emissions

of NH 3 are projected to increase 2,762 tons ( 18 percent ).

The projected in crease in NH 3 emissions does not present a concern for maintaining the PM 2.5 NAAQS because emissions of all other pollutants are projected to decline in the Lancaster Area. The increase in NH 3 emissions is due to anticipated growth reflected by activity factors (such as population and employment, for instance) in the absence of any anticipated requirements to
reduce NH 3 emissions. Changes in PM 2.5 concentrations in the Lancaster Area have not been driven by changes in ammonia emissions in the past. As s hown in

Table II

- 6 and in Figure II

- 1, PM 2.5 concentrations have decreased substantially from 2002 through 2011, while NH 3 emissions have held relatively steady. Over the same time period, significant reductions in PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NOx and VOC have occurred, i ndicating that PM 2.5 concentrations in the Harrisburg Area are sensitive

to SO 2 and NOx reductions and that PM 2.5 formation in the Harrisburg Area is likely not limited by NH 3 concentrations. Thus, the projected increase in NH 3 emissions does not appear t o be an important factor for maintaining the PM 2.5 NAAQS. In addition, the Lancaster Area currently has an annual design value

based on 2010

- 2012 monitoring data of 12.1 μg/m 3 , which is significantly lower than the 1997 NAAQS of 15 μg/m3. The Lancaster A rea also has a 24

- hour design value based on 2010

- 2012 monitoring data of 31 μg/m 3 which is significantly lower than the 2006 NAAQS of 35 μg/m 3

.

Table II

- 6: Lancaster Area NH 3 Emissions and PM 2.5 Design Values

Lancaster 2002 2005 2007 2008 2011

NH 3 (To ns/Year) 7,819 8,195 7,302 7,266 7,461

PM 2.5 - Annual Design Value 17.1 17.5 15.9 14.5 12.0

PM 2.5 - 24

- Hour Design Value 43 44 40 37 31- 22

-

Figure II

- 1: Lancaster Area NH 3 Emissions and PM 2.5 Design Value Trends

Table II

- 7 : Lancaster Area Maintenance Emissions Test

*A portion of the difference between attainment year and maintenance year emissions of PM 2.5 and

NO X has been set aside as a transportation conformity safety margin to accommodate unanticipated growth in highway vehic les. The emissions in Table II

- 6 reflect inclusion of that safety margin.

Air quality m odeling that EPA conducted to analyze the impact of revising the

PM 2.5 NAAQS , summarized in the Regulatory Impact Analysis of December 2012, indicates that Lancaster County would maintain the 1997 and 2006 NAAQS, as well as attain the 2012 NAAQS with a concentration of 9.4 μ g/m 3 in

2020. 8 The modeling was p erformed with a 2007 base year. The projection to 2020 took into account reductions expected to occur between 2007 and 2020 from

exis ting federal and State control programs

. The results of EPA’s modeling also support redesignating the Lancaster Area to attainment for the 1997 and 2006

PM 2.5 NAAQS.

I II

. P ERMANENT AND E NFORCEABLE C ONTROL M EASURES

A. Permanent and Enforceable Control M easures

Because of the complexity and variability of the process of particulate matter formation, the EPA recognizes that effective control measures for PM 2.5 will vary

8 www.epa.gov/air/particlepollution/2012/2020table.pdf- 23

- among nonattainment areas. This was reflected in EPA’s “ Implemen tation

Guidance for t he 2006 24

- Hour Fine Particle National Ambient Air Quality Standard, ” Office of Air Quality Pla nning and Standards, EPA, March 2, 2012 ( “Implementation Guidance for the 2006 24

- H our PM 2.5 NAAQS”) . In the Implementation Guidance for the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS, E PA adopted the framework and policy approach the agency espoused in its implementation rule

for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS, known as the “ Clean Air Fine Particle Implementation Rule ” (7 2 FR 20586 ; April 25, 2007) ( “I mplementation R ule for

the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS” )

.

In its I mplementation R ule for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS, EPA had established general presumptive policies for assessing which PM 2.5 precursors should be evaluated for possible controls. In that earlier rule, t he EP A require d states to
evaluate control mea sures for SO 2 and primary PM 2.5 i n all locations. The EPA require d states to evaluate control measures for NO X unless a technical

demonstration is made to show that NO X emissions from sources in the state do not significantly contribute to PM 2.5 concentra tions in the nonattainment area

. The EPA require d states to evaluate measures for VOC and NH 3 only if a technical demonstration is made to show VOC or NH 3 emissions significantly

contribute to PM 2.5 in the nonattainment area.

The EPA reaffirmed the app ropriateness of these presumptions in its Implemen tation Guidance for the 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS. 9 Meanwhile, the Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit was considering a challenge to the Implementation Rule for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS, in Natural Resources Defense

Council v. EPA , No. 08

- 1250 . On January 4, 2013, the Court handed down its ruling in that case

. T he C ourt granted the petitions for review and remanded the

case to EPA to re

- promulgate the rule pursuant to Subpart 4 of Part D of the Clean

Air Ac t, rather than implementing it under Subpart 1, as EPA had done ( 706 F.3d 428 at 437(DC Cir. 2013) )

.

Shortly thereafter, EPA withdrew its Implemen tation Guidance for the 2006

24

- hour PM 2.5 NAAQS

. According to EPA’s June, 2013 withdrawal memorandum (see s econd page of memorandum) 10 , EPA withdrew the guidance in response to the Court’s decision in Natural Resources Defense Council v. EPA

, No. 08

- 1250

.

This maintenance plan demonstrates maintenance of the standard s consistent with the Court’s ruling. In ge neral, the C ourt’s decision (for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS and to the extent it would be extrap olated to the 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS) could affect an area’s nonattainment classification, certain deadlines, and the impacts of failing to attain timely, and could impose a deadline for implementation of reasonably available and best available control measures ( 706 F.3d at 436, n. 6 )

. Because the Lancaster Area is already attaining the 1997

9 See footnote 2, above.

10 See footnote 3, above.- 24

- annual and 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS, those considerations are not relevant for this maintenance plan. The co urt noted that PM 2.5 precursors, including ammonia and VOCs, are presumptively regulated in PM 2.5 nonattainment areas under Subpart 4, pointing specifically to section 189(e), which applies to control of major stationary s ources of PM 10 [the court stated that PM 10 includes PM 2.5 throughout Subpart 4] ( 706 F.3d at 436, n. 7, and at 437, n. 10 )

. A ccording to

Section 189(e) of the CAA , control requirements applicable for major stationary

sources of PM 10 also apply to major st ationary sources of PM 10 precursors , except where the Administrator determines that major stationary sources do not contribute significantly to PM 10 levels that exceed th e standard in the area;

Section 189(e) also requires EPA to issue guidelines regarding the application of

Subsection (e). Pennsylvania assessed emissions of PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC and

NH 3 for the maintenance demonstration

.

This section describes the federal and state measures that will provide direct

PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , and VOC emission reduct ions ensuring maintenance of the

standard.

A summary of the quantity of emission reductions expected from 2007 to 2025 is

included in Table III

- 1 ( Negative valu e s indicate emission reductions.)

. The

emission change estimates account for any anticipated g rowth in the activity of sources regulated by the strategy and include emissions in the transportation conformity safety margin

. Direct PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X and VOC emissions in 2025

in the Lancaster Area are anticipated to be lower than they were in 2007

. Th is

means that the projected growth in emissions is smaller than anticipated emission

reductions from control measures for all pollutant s in the nonattainment area

. Each control measure is explained in greater detail in the following sections.

Ammonia emi ssions, as discussed in Section II

- G relating to the Maintenance

P lan E missions T est, are anticipated to increase from 2007 to 2025 , but the increase does not present a concern for maintaining the NAAQS in the Lancaster

Area because emissions of all other pollutants are projected to decline in the area

. Based on 2010

- 2012 monitoring data, t he Lancaster Area currently has an annual design value of 12.1 μg/m 3 and a 24

- hour design value of 31 μg/m 3

, which is significantly lower than the 1997 annual PM 2.5 NA AQS of 15 μg/m 3 and the 2006

24

- hour NAAQS of 35 μg/m 3 . In addition, in the past, reductions in PM 2.5 concentrations in the Lancaster area have not been linked to or dependant on NH 3 emissions as shown in the analysis in Section II

- G relating to the Maint enance Plan Emissions Test

.- 25

- Table III

- 1: Sum mary of Emission Reductions (Tons) from 2007 to 2025

from Control Measures

*A portion of the difference between attainment year and maintenance year emissions of PM 2.5 and

NO X has been set aside as a transp ortation conformity safety margin to accommodate unanticipated growth in highway vehicles. The highway v ehicle emissions in Table II I

- 1 reflect inclusion of that safety margin.

Pursuant to 40 CFR Part 51, Subpart K (relating to source surveillance), the SIP revision is required to provide for monitoring of the status of compliance with any rules and regulations that set forth any portion of the control strategy. These include provisions, as applicable, for:

 emissions reports and recordkeeping for statio nary sources;

 periodic testing and inspection of stationary sources;

 enforcement and complaint investigation of visible emission limitations;

 enforceable test methods for emission limits; and

 continuous emission monitoring for stationary sources.

Subpart K also requires monitoring of the implementation of transportation control measures (TCMs). There are no TCMs in this SIP revision

.

The rules and regulations for stationary sources, which are part of the control strategy for attaining and maintaining the PM 2.5 standard, as well as the Department’s comprehensive permit ting program requirements in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 127 and the Commonwealth’s SIP in 40 CFR 52.2020, meet the requirements of Subpart K. EPA has approved the Department’s permitting

program as part of the State Implementation Plan.

There are many examples in the Pa. Code of provisions for monitoring the status of compliance with the Department’s rules and regulations. For example, §127.12(a) (relating to the content of applications) contain r equirements for reporting and recordkeeping for plan approval applications. Similar requirements are found in §127.411(a) (relating to content of applications) for permit applications. Sections 145.145 and 145.146 contain the compliance demonstration, re porting and recordkeeping requirements for cement kilns that enable the Department to monitor the status of compliance with the regulations in Chapter 145 Subpart C. The Department als o monitors the status of compli ance by conducting complaint investigati ons. The Department does visible emission inspections at regulated facilities and reports the results to the EPA AFS system- 26

- as required under the Department’s grant. The Department conducts inspections

of air contamination sources in accordance with the Compliance Monitoring Schedule which is approved by EPA.

1. Stationary Point Sources

Background for Pennsylvania’s Stationary Source Permitting Programs. An owner or operator of a proposed new air contamination

sources in the Commonwealth is required to receive a p lan a pproval (pre

construction permit) from the Department prior to the construction, assembly, installation of new sources, modification of any existing stationary air contamination sources, or the installation of air pollution control equipme nt or devices

. Following the construction of the new facility or air contamination source, the owner or operator must obtain an operating permit from the Department. The type of operating permit will depend on the quantity of regulated pollutants emitted f rom the air

contamination sources. DEP will issue a “State

- only Operating Permit” for minor air contamination stationary sources that are below the applicability thresholds for Title V facilities. A Title V operating permit is required for major facilitie s that have the potential to emit air contaminants exceeding the Title V thresholds. The Title V Permit , which is issued for a term of five years, incorporates all applicable requirements for the facility in a single federally enforceable operating permit.

The requirements contained in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 127 (relating to the construction, modification, reactivation and operation of sources), and

associated definitions in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 121.1, are a suite of programs regulating air contamination sour ces to improve and maintain air quality. Chapter 127 establishes requirements for the submission, review and approval of pre

- construction and operating permits for both major and

non

- major air contamination sources. The provisions of Chapter 127 have

bee n codified in the SIP at 40 CFR §52.2020(c)(1) at various times since May 31, 1972 and most recently on October 5, 2012, and are therefore all federally enforceable. Several aspects of Chapter 127 are highlighted below as being particularly important for the maintenance of the PM 2.5 standard.

Title V Permitting Program. The Title V Permitting Program, adopted pursuant to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, is applicable to major stationary sources as defined in 25 Pa

. Code

Section 121.1. The purpose o f the Title V program is to detail a facility’s air quality requirements in a single permit document so that industry, the regulatory agency, and the public know exactly what regulations and requirements apply and how the facility’s owner or operator will monitor and demonstrate compliance with all applicable requirements. The Title V permit includes all- 27

- sources at a site including all air pollution control devices a s well

as activities that were determined to be insignificant sources of

emissions. Each source is described in detail within a section of

the Title V permit. The requirements include general conditions applicable to all Title V facilities, emission restrictions, detailed monitoring, recordkeeping, and reporting requirements to assure complia nce with the facility’s applicable federal and state requirements.

Nonattainment New Source Review and Prevention o f Significant Deterioration

. Major facilities proposed in Pennsylvania will also be subject to New Source Review (NSR) requirements in nonat tainment areas and Prevention of Significant

Deterioration (PSD) requirements in areas of the Commonwealth designated attainment for National Ambient Air Quality Standards including carbon monoxide, particulate matter (PM), lead, nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), oz one and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ). Generally, NSR permit requirements are applicable to a facility located in a nonattainment area for a particular pollutant with a potential to

emit 50 tons or more per year (tpy) of volatile organic compounds

or 100 tpy or mo re of NOx, SO 2 , PM or carbon monoxide. It should be noted that the entire Commonwealth, included in the Ozone Transport Region by operation of law, is treated as a “moderate” ozone nonattainment area, irrespective of the area’s

attainment status. Becaus e NOx and VOC are precursors of PM 2.5 , NOx and VOC emission reductions required statewide under the nonattainment NSR program for ozone also allow Pennsylvania to make substantial progress in attaining and maintaining the PM 2.5 NAAQS. Any major stationary source or major modification subject to the NSR requirements must receive a plan approval. To receive approval from the Department, a person must show that the proposed source will, among other things, offset its potential to

emit air cont aminants includi ng NOx, PM and VOCs by securing emission reductions credits at the specified offset ratio, will employ the “ l owest achievable emission rate” (LAER) for each regulated pollutant and conduct an alternative analysis. The nonattainment NSR requirements are co dified in 25 Pa. Chapter 127, Subchapter E and approved as a SIP revision on

December 9, 1997 (62 FR 64722).

The PSD program is a pre

- construction review and permitting program applicable to new or modified major stationary sources subject to Title I, Par ts C and D of the federal CAA. The PSD requirements are applicable to major sources in areas attaining the NAAQS. The federal PSD regulations codified in 40 CFR Part 52 are incorporated by reference in their entirety in 25 Pa. Code §127.83 (relating to a doption by reference ). The Department’s- 28

- PSD regulations, codified in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 127, Subchapter D, were approved by the EPA on August 21, 1984 and

codified at 40 CFR §52.2058 (49 FR 33128).). PSD permit requirements may apply to a facility locat ed in an attainment area

for a standard with the potential to emit 100 tpy or 250 tpy of the six criteria pollutants including carbon monoxide , lead, nitrogen

dioxide , ozone, par ticulate matter and sulfur dioxide depending on the source category. Any major stationary source or major modification subject to the PSD requirements must conduct an

ana lysis to establish the best available control technology (BACT). In addition, the owner or operator of a facility needs to conduct an ambient air quality analysis, analyze the impacts to soils, vegetation and visibility and make sure that the project will not adversely impact mandatory federal Class I areas including national parks greater than 6

, 000 acres and national wilderness areas and national memorial parks greater than 5

, 000 acres.

Best Available Technology Program. The Department’s Best

Availab le Technology (BAT) Program ensures that new stationary sources will prevent, reduce or control emissions of air contaminants to the maximum degree possible. The Department determines BAT requirements on a case

- by

- case basis for both major and minor stati onary sources tak ing into account energy,

environmental benefits and costs. Pursuant to 25 Pa. Code §127.1, the emission of air pollutants from new sources in Pennsylvania

must be controlled to the maximum extent, consistent with the best

available techno logy as determined by the Department as of the date of issuance of the plan approva l for the new source. Under

25 Pa. Code §127.12(a)(5), an application for a plan approval must

show that the emissions from a new source will be the minimum

attainable thro ugh the use of the best available technology. Pennsylvania regulations define “best available technology” in

25 Pa. Code § 121.1 as, “Equipment, devices, methods or techniques as determined by the Department which will prevent,

reduce or control emissions of air contaminants to the maximum degree possible and which are available or may be made available.” The Department’s BAT regulations, codified in 25 Pa.

Code §§ 127.1 and 127.12(a)(5), were approved by EPA on July 30, 1996

, and codified in the SIP at 40 CFR §52.2020(c)(1).

NOx and SO 2 Control Programs

. In 1998, EPA promulgated the NO X SIP Call as the EPA’s principal effort to reduce interstate transport of air pollution (63 FR 57356; October 27, 1998). In response to the federal

NO X SIP call rule, Penn sylvania adopted the NO X Budget Trading Program regulations for EGUs and large industrial boilers , with emission reductions to commence May 1, 2003. The regulations were approved by- 29

- EPA as a revision to the Commonwealth’s SIP on August 21, 2001 (66 FR 437 95). Additionally, in response to the NO X SIP Call, Pennsylvania adopted additional NO X control regulations covering cement plants and internal combustion engines, with emission reductions to commence May 1, 2005. These regulations were approved by EPA a s a SIP revision on September 29, 2006 ( 71 FR 57428).

Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). In 2005, EPA adopted CAIR (70 FR 25162; May 12, 2005, as amended) to address interstate transport of NO X and SO 2 . CAIR is now being implemented in Pennsylvania throu gh the Department’s CAIR regulation, codified

in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 145, Subchapter D, with related amendments in Chapters 121, 129 and 145. EPA approved Pennsylvania’s CAIR SIP revision on December 10, 2009, codified

at 40 CFR § 52.2020(c)(1) (74 FR 6544 6). In the CAIR SIP revision, Pennsylvania terminated the NO X Budget Trading Program and transitioned to the federal CAIR for large electric generating units (EGU).

The market

- based CAIR is designed to reduce EGU emissions of

NO X and SO 2 below 2002 level s throughout the eastern United States. Pennsylvania and the other CAIR states were required to adopt a regulation implementing the requirements of the CAIR or an equivalent program. The large EGUs in Pennsylvania were initially regulated under CAIR FIPs promulgated by EPA, but have been regulated under the SIP since EPA approved Pennsylvania’s CAIR SIP revision. Under the SIP revision, Pennsylvania participates in the EPA

- administered cap

- and

- trade programs for

NO X annual, NO X ozone season, and SO 2 annu al emissions.

EPA’s CAIR was remanded to EPA for revisions by the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia on

December 23, 2008 (See, North Carolina v. EPA , 531 F.3d 896, modified, 550 F.3d 1176 (D.C. Cir. 2008)). Following remand,

EPA replaced CAIR with the Cross

- State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), but in a separate legal challenge the court vacated CSAPR. In that ruling, the court ordered EPA to continue administering CAIR pending the promulgation of a valid replacement (See, EME Homer City Generation L.P. v. EPA

, 696 F.3d 7 (D.C. Cir. 2012, rehearing denied, 2013 U.S. App.

LEXIS 1623 and 1624 (D.C. Cir. Jan. 24, 2013)). On June 24, 2013, the Supreme Court of the United States accepted review of the case. Following the Circuit Court’s direction, CAIR remains in place pending the Supreme Court’s review.- 30

- NO X Budget Trading Program limits on non

- EGUs. The CAIR

SIP revision also established emission limits for the non

- EGUs and other units that were subject to the Commonwealth’s NO X Budge t Trading Program but are not subject to the CAIR NO X Ozone Season Trading Program. T hese units must continue monitoring

NO X emissions and must meet an emissions cap. Each unit has an allowable emission rate, calculated by January 31 of each year,

based on the previous ozone season’s heat input. If the combined

NO X ozone season emissions from all of these units exceed the statewide ozone season emission cap of 3,438 tons, each unit that

exceeds its individual allowable emissions limit for that ozone

seas on must surrender to the Department one CAIR NO X ozone season allowance and one CAIR NO X annual allowance for each ton of emissions over its allowable limit. In addition, the

Commonwealth has set aside 181 tons of NO X , including tons that

will be retired each year to compensate for sources that were exempted under the ‘‘twenty

- five ton exemption’’ in

section 145.4(b) 3. The balance of tons remaining in the set aside is available to the Department annually for accounting corrections.

The Commonwealth reti res any unused amount from this set aside each year.

It is unlikely that the 3,438

- ton statewide NO X ozone season emission limitation will be exceeded. Pennsylvania’s non

- EGU sources’ total emissions during each of the years they were trading

under the N O X Budget Trading Program never exceeded the statewide cap of 3,438 tons.

The Department’s regulation, codified in 25 Pa. Code § 145.8(d), was approved by EPA as a SIP revision on December 10, 2009,

and codified at 40 CFR § 52.2020(c)(1).

Cement kilns and large stationary internal combustion engines. The CAIR SIP revision also included regulations updating the the cement manufacturing and large stationary internal combustion engine regulations that were adopted pursuant to the NO X SIP Call. Until 2009, ce ment kilns and large stationary internal combustion engines that were subject to the NO X SIP Call were required to

surrender NO X SIP Call allowances if they exceeded their NO X emission limits set forth in Department regulations. Because the Department dis continued the NO X Budget Trading Program beginning 2009, at which point NO X SIP Call allowances were replaced by CAIR NO X ozone season allowances, the Department modified the regulations to require surrender of CAIR NO X ozone season and CAIR NO X annual all owances for emission limit

exceedances.- 31

- The Department’s regulations for large stationary internal combustion engines and cement kilns, codified in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 145, Subchapters B and C, respectively, were approved by

EPA as a SIP revision on Decem ber 10, 2009, and codified at

40 CFR § 51.2020(c)(1). An amendment to the Department’s regulation for cement kilns to reduce NO X emissions effective April 15, 2011, codified in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 145, Subchapter C, was subsequently approved by EPA as as S IP revision on July 19, 2011, and codified at 40 CFR § 51.2020(c)(1).

Federal Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants. Federal standards to control hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) require Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) at units located at maj or sources of HAPs.

The EPA has promulgated a series of MACT regulations that are applicable to sources in Pennsylvania. These MACT standards are adopted and incorporated by reference in Section 6.6 of Pennsylvania’s Air Pollution Control Act and impleme nting regulations in 25 Pa. Code § 127.35 (relating to maximum achievable control technology standards for hazardous air pollutants) . The standards are also included in federally

enforceable plan approvals and operating permits issued by the

De partment for affected sources.

2

. Highway Vehicle Sources

Even with increases in VMT t hat occur from 2007 through 2025

, highway

vehicle emissions will continue to decrease . As more vehicles subject to cleaner new car standards replace older vehicles subject to less stringent new vehicle standards, the fleet as a whole emits fewer emissions, compensating for the incr ease in vehicle miles traveled. These decreases can be attributed to the programs des cribed below.

Federal Motor Vehicle Control Programs (FMVCP) and

P ennsylvania Clean Vehicle Program for passenger vehicles and light

duty trucks and cleaner gasoline. Tier 1 tailpipe standards established by the CAA Amendments of 1990 include NO X and VOC limits for light

duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) and light

- duty gas oline trucks (LDGTs).

The phase in of the se standards began in 1994. Evaporative VOC emissions were reduced in gasoline

- powered cars starting with M odel

Y ear (MY) 1998.

In 1998, under the authority of section 177 of the CAA, the Department adopted the P ennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program (28 Pa. B. 5973 , Dec. 5, 1998)

. The Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program incorporates by

reference certain California Low Emission Vehicle (CA LEV) emission standards for passenger cars and light

- duty trucks. As required under- 32

- Section 177 of the CAA, these provisions are identical to the low emission standards adopted by California

. T he regulation does not incorporate by reference the California zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) or emissions control warranty systems statement provisions.

In the same rulemaking, the Department adopted the National Low Emission Vehicle (NLEV) program as a compliance alternative to the Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program. The NLEV program became effective in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR) in 1 999. Pennsylvania’s

New Motor Vehicle Emissions Control Program regulations in 25 Pa.

Code Sections 126.401

- 126.441 , in addition to including the Clean Vehicles Program, allowed automobile manufacturers to comply with NLEV instead of the CA LEV program th rough MY 2005. These regulations affected vehicles 6,000 pounds and less and were the regulations in effect for new motor vehicl es in the baseline year, 2002.

In 1999, the EPA promulgated regulations more stringent than NLEV ( Tier 2), starting with MY 20 04 (65 FR 6698 ; Feb. 10, 2000) T he N LEV program was replaced for MY 2004 and later by the more stringent Tier 2 regulations, and vehicle manufacturers operating under the NLEV program became subje ct to the Tier 2 requirements.

Pennsylvania amended the fo rmer New Motor Vehicle Emissions Control Program in 2006. The Clean Vehicles Program continues to incorporate the California Low Emission Vehicle Program by reference. As amended, the program affects MY 2008 and newer passenger cars and light

- duty

trucks vehicles ( 36 Pa

. B

. 7424 ; Dec

. 9, 2006 ) , corrected 37 Pa. B. 209 (Jan. 12, 2007, eff. Dec. 9, 2006)

. EPA approved Pennsylvania’s Clean Vehicle Program as a revis ion to the Commonwealth’s SIP o n January 24,

2012 (77 FR 3386).

Heavy

- Duty Diesel Control Prog rams. The EPA promulgated more stringent national regulations for heavy

- duty engines and vehicles (over
14,000 pounds) starting with MY 2004. In addition, federal consent decrees with seven of the largest heavy

- duty engine manufacturers required, among o ther terms, that diesel engines made by these companies comply with these 2004 standards two model years early, in MY 2002.

The emission reductions from these programs are reflected in the future year emission inventories, as provided in the MOVES model.

In 2002, the Department adopted the Heavy

- Duty Diesel Emissions Control Program for model years starting after May 2004. The program incorporates California standards by reference and requires MY 2005 and subsequent new heavy

- duty diesel highway engines to be those certified by California. California standards we re more stringent than federal standards for the two model years between expiration of the consent- 33

- decrees discussed above (MYs 2005 and 2006 ) and the implementation of more stringent federal sta ndards affecting MY 2007 and beyond.
However, EPA ’s MOVES model already assumed that the engines would comply with consent decree standards, even without an enforcement mechanism. The Department has used MOVES defaults to calculate

emissions from MY 2005 and 2006 highway engines.

The EPA adopted new emission standards for heavy

- duty engines and

vehicles for MY 2007 and subsequent. For diesel engines, the standards

were phased in from 2007 to 2010 for NO X and VOCs. For gasoline engines, the standards we re phased in during MY 2008 and 2009. Federal

and California standards were virtually identical for MY 2007. For MY 2008, California adopted requirements for idling restriction engine programming and an option al “clean NO X idle” standard. However, there

is no EPA

- approved methodology to estimate emission reductions from this requirement. Therefore, the emission estimates use assumptions of

the federal rule for MY 2007 through 2010

.

Because the new engine standards are adversely affected by sulfur in fu el,

the EPA also require d most highway diesel fuel to contain no more than

15 parts per million (ppm) of sulfur , beginning in the fall of 2006. There

wa s a temporary compliance option allowing refiners to continue to produce up to 20 percent of their high way diesel fuel at 500 ppm fuel until

2010. The Department u sed MOVES defaults to estimate the effects of the phase

- in provision.

Vehicle Emission Inspection/Maintenance Program. I n early 2004, Pennsylvania expanded its Vehicle Emission Inspection/Maint enance (I/M) Program into the Lancaster Area . The program applies to gasoline

powered vehicles 9,000 pounds and under, model years 1975 and newer. For vehicles 1996 and newer, the program consists of an annual on

- board diagnostics test and a gas cap pres sure test. For subject vehicles 1995 and older, the program consists of an annual visual inspection of pollution control devices to ensure they are present, connected and the proper type for the vehicle and a gas cap pressure test. These regulations can be found

in 67 Pa. Code Chapter 177. The Department submitted the expanded emissions program to EPA as a SIP revision on December 1, 2003. EPA approved the SIP revision on October 6, 2005 (70 FR 58313 ).

Low Sulfur Gasoline

. Sulfur is a natural componen t in crude oil that ends up in gasoline and diesel unless removed. Sulfur in gasoline impairs the effectiveness of emission control systems and contributes to air pollution. By removing most sulfur from gasoline, new advanced

emission controls will work longer and more efficiently, and air pollution

will be reduced.- 34

- The 1999 federal Tier 2 regulations (65 FR 6698; Feb. 10, 2000) reduce d

the sulfur content of gasoline by up to 90 percent, enabling the use of new emission control technologies in cars and t rucks that reduce harmful air pollution. The emission inventory analysis in this Maintenance Plan uses the default assumptions provided in MOVES2010 to account for the implementation of the federal standards for low sulfur gasoline. Requirements for use of low

- sulfur gasoline enabled use of advanced emission control systems in light

- duty vehicles beginning in model year

2004. Vehicles meeting Tier 2 emission standards are 77 to 95 percent
cleaner than earlier models.

On March 3, 2014, EPA signed a regul ation adopting more stringent

vehicle standards and reducing sulfur limits in gasoline further with the

Tier 3 Motor Vehicle Emission and Fuel Standards program . The rule takes effect in 2017. The Tier 3 program requires the annual average

content of sulf

ur in gasoline to be reduced to 10 parts per million, starting January 1, 2017. By 2018, EPA estimates that SO 2 emissions from gasoline vehicles will be reduced by 56 percent. When fully implemented, this program, by 2030, will increase the effectivenes s of vehicle emission

controls even further and reduce onroad emissions of NOx by 25 percent, direct particulate matter by 10 percent and VOCs by 16 percent. The rule will also significantly reduce e missions of carbon monoxide and hazardous air pollutants including acrolein, benzene, formaldehyde and acetaldehyde.

3

. Nonroad Sources

The EPA has adopted a series of regulations affecting new diesel

- powered (“compression ignition”) and gasoline

- powered (“spark ignition”) nonroad engines of various sizes (hor sepower) and applications. Information on these federal rules, including their implementation dates, can be found at www.epa.gov/nonroad

. The Department used the assumptions built into the nonroad model (NONROAD 2005) and NMIM to estimate emissions for all milestone years.

While the EPA has published a notice of proposed rulemaking for more stringent standards for locomotives and large commercial marine diesel engines, the agency has not finalized any new standar ds.

On June 29, 2004, EPA adopted a rule establishing a comprehensive national program to reduce emissions from nonroad diesel engines (69 FR 38958). The rule phased in requirements for reducing the sulfur content of diesel used in nonroad diesel engines

. The reduction in fuel

sulfur content prevent s damage to the more advanced emission control systems needed to meet the engine standards; it will also reduce fine particulate emissions from diesel engines. In 2007, fuel sulfur levels were- 35

- limited to 500 ppm for nonroad applications other than ocean

- going marine vessels. In 2010, fuel sulfur levels were reduced to the same sulfur concentration as in highway fue l, 15 ppm; this requirement began applying in 2012 to locomotive and marine diesel fuel. EPA ad o pted

technical a mendments to the program in rules published in the Federal Register on November 22, 2005 (70 FR 70498) and May 1, 2006 (71 FR 25706). On April 30, 2010 (75 FR 22896), EPA adopted changes to the nonroad diesel fuel program to allow for the production and sale of diesel fuel with up to 1

, 000 ppm sulfur for use in Category 3 marine vessels. This requirement does not impact the Lancaster Area because the

Lancaster Area does not have emissions from commercial marine vessels.

4

. Stationary Area Sources

Low Sulfur Fuel Oil. The Environmental Quality Board has adopted a

rule to reduce the sulfur content of fuel oil in Pennsylvania . This final rule, published in the Pennsylvania Bulletin February 9, 2013 (43 Pa. B. 806), corrected April 20 , 2013 (43 Pa. B. 2140 ), will limit the

sulfur content of No. 2 fuel oil to 500 ppm, No. 4 fuel oil to 2,500 ppm and Nos. 5 and 6 fuel oils to 5,000 ppm. Compliance with the lower sulfur content limits will be req uired beginning July 1, 2016. The Department

esti mates statewide SO 2 emission reductions of approximately 25,000 tons per year from this rule. The final

- form regulation was submitted to EPA for approval as a SIP revision on February 26, 2013 and determined by EPA on March 28, 2013 to be administratively complete. Action on the SIP revision is expected in early 2014.

Consumer Products. This regulation applies statewide to any person who sells, supplies, offers for sale, or manufactures certain consum er products on or after January 1, 2005, for use in t he Commonwealth. The program is contained in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 130, Subchapter B. It was

submitted to the EPA as a SIP revision on March 26, 2003

, and approved

on December 8, 2004 (69 FR 70895). Amendments to the Consumer

Products regulations were ado pted on October 11, 2008

, submitted to the

EPA for approval as a SIP revision on March 11 , 2009

, and approved by

EPA as a SIP revision on October 18, 2010 (75 FR 63717)

.

Adhesives , Sealants, Primers and Solvents. Pennsylvania adopted a regulation in 2010 to control VOC emissions from Adhesives, Sealants, Primers and Solvents. This regulation was published in the Pennsylvania

Bulletin on December 25, 2010 (40 Pa. B. 7340) and approved by EPA as a SIP revision on September 26, 2012 (77 FR 59090).- 36

-

B

. Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets for Transportation Conformity

Section 176 of the CAA provides a mechanism by which federally funded or approved highway and transit plans, programs, and projects are determined not to produce new air quality violations, worsen exi sting violations, or delay timely attainment of the NAAQS. EPA regulations issued to implement transportation conformity provide that motor vehicle emission “budgets” establish caps of these emissions that cannot be exceeded by the predicted transportatio n system emissions in the future. Transportation agencies in Pennsylvania are responsible for making timely transportation conformity determinations. The responsible

agency in the Lancaster Area is the Lancaster County Transportation Coordinating Committ ee , the designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) under federal transportation planning requirements.

In this Maintenance Plan, Pennsylvania establish es budgets for highway

emissions for direct PM 2.5 and NO X in order to ensure that transportatio n emissions do not impede clean air goals in the next decade and beyond. The highway emission budgets include a safety margin, which was created by setting

aside a portion of the difference between attainment year and maintenance year

emissions of PM 2.5 a nd NO X to accommodate unanticipated growth in highway

vehicles.

Amendments to the 40 CFR part 93 transportation conformity regulations to

address the 1997 PM 2.5 standard were published in the Federal Register on May 6, 2005 (70 FR 24280)

, to account for P M 2.5 and its precursors. 11 The

I mplementation R ule did not amend these regulations. In the transportation conformity regulations, s ection 93.102 requires conformity determinations to be applicable to direct emissions of PM 2.5 and NO X (unless a determinati on is made that transportation

- related emissions are not significant contributors to PM 2.5 ), but

to emissions of SO 2 , VOC, and NH 3 only if a finding is made that transportation

related emissions of these pollutants are significant contributors to PM 2.5

. E PA approved Pennsylvania’s SIP revision establishing transportation conformity requiremen ts in the Commonwealth on April 29, 2009 (74 FR 19451).

T his Maintenance Plan SIP revision establishes motor vehicle emission budget s for PM 2.5 and NO X

. The informa tio n in Table III

- 2 , once t he EPA approves it for purposes of conformity, will establish transportation conformity budgets for the

Lancaster Area.

11 The Federal transportation conformity regulations were again amended on March 14, 2012 (77 FR 14979) to

restructure several sec tions so that they apply to any new or revised NAAQS and make several c larifications to improve implementation.- 37

- Table III

- 2: Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (Tons per Year)

Lancaster PM 2.5 NOx

2007 480 13,895

2017 Predicted 217 6,288 Safety Margin 32 628 2017 Budget 249 6,916

2025 Predicted 161 4,043 Safety Margin 24 404 2025 Budget 185 4,447

The highway emission budgets include a safety margin to accommodate unanticipated growth in highway veh icles . The safety margins were created by setting aside a portion of the difference between attainment year and maintenance year emissions of PM 2.5 and NO X

. Table III

- 3 shows that the amount of emission reductions anticipated between 2007 and 2017 and be tween 2007 and 2025 easily accommodates the safety margins granted.

Table III

- 3 : Comparison of Saf ety Margin to Total Anticipated

Emission Reductions in 2017 and 2025

Lancaster Area Total Emissions PM 2.5 NOx

2007 3,715 20,041

2017 3,315 11,081

2025 3,175 8,443

2007

– 2017 Anticipated Emission

Reductions 400 8,960

Margin Granted 32 628

2007

– 2025 Anticipated Emission

Reductions 540 11,599

Margin Granted 24 404

For informational purposes, DEP analyzed the projected 2025 inventory and found that highway emissions of VOC, NH 3 , and SO 2 account for 13.76 percent

, 0.78 percent , and 2.03 percent of the total projected 2025 inventory, respectively,

as shown in Table III

- 4

.- 38

-

Table III

- 4 : Comparison of 2025 On

- Road Mobile VOC

, NH 3 , and SO 2 Emissions

to the Total Projected 2025 Inventory

Lancaster 2025 SO 2 VOC NH 3 On

- Road Mobile Source Projected Inventory (Tons) 39 1,868 144 Total Projected 2025 Inventory (Tons) 1,930 13,580 18,531 Percent of Total Projected 2025 Inventory (%) 2.03 13. 76 0.78

The motor vehicle emission budgets include PM from vehicle exh aust, brake wear, and tire wear, which are estimated by the MOVES model. The Department

has included direct PM 2.5 re

- entrained road dust emissions from paved and unpaved roads in the area source inventory , not in the motor vehicle emission budgets. Appendices B

- 3 and B

- 4, rela ting to area source annual emissions,

contain estimates of the PM 2.5 emissions attributable to paved and unpaved roads.

The Lancaster monitoring site includes a monitor that measures PM 2.5 mass and a speciation monitor that collects data on the chemical constituents of PM 2.5 in the

Lancaster Area

. Transportation construction

- related fugitive dust emissions are not a significant contributor to the PM 2.5 concentr ations observed at the Lancaster

monitor . At the Lancaster monitor, the crustal component was found to be small compared to other components of PM 2.5 ( See, Figure 1 ). Given that construction

related fugitive dust is one of many source categories contribu ting to the crustal material observed at the monitor, and transportation construction is a small subset of all construction, it is reasonable to conclude that transportation construction

related fugitive emissi ons are insignificant.

Figure 1. Pie Chart o f 2007 Lancaster Speciation Data

Lancaster Percentage of Total Mass

Year 2007

Nitrate

17%

Sulfate

25%

Ammonium

15% Organic carbon

22% Elemental carbon

4% Crustal component

2% Other

15%- 39

-

I V

. AMBIENT AIR QUALITY MONITORING NETWORK

The Commonwealth will continue to operate the air monitorin g network in accordance

with 40 CFR Part 58 to verify the attainment status of the Lancas ter A rea for the 1997

and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS , with no reductions in the number of sites from those in the existing network unless pre

- approved by EPA. The Commonwealth has concurrently submitted a request for redesignation of the Lancaster A rea that contain s analysis of ambient air quality data and related factors.

V

. V ERIFICATION OF C ONTINUED A TTAINMENT

The Commonwealth will track the attainment status of the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS

in the Lancaster A rea by reviewing air quality and emissions data durin g the maintenance period. The Commonwealth will perform an annual evaluation of two key factors, VMT data and emissions reported from stationary sources, and compare them to the assumptions about these factors used in this plan. The Commonwealth will als o evaluate the periodic (every three years) emission inventories prepared under E PA’s Air Emiss ion Reporting Requirements (40 CFR 51

, Subpart A) to see if they exceed the attainment year inventory (2007 ) by more than 10 percent. Based on these evaluations , the Commonwealth will consider whether any further emission control measures should be implemented.

VI

. C ONTINGENCY M EASURES

The Commonwealth will adopt and expeditiously implement corrective actions , as necessary and appropriate, in the following cir cumstances:

A first level response will be prompted if the annual mean PM 2.5 concentration exceeds

15.5 μ g/m 3 in a single calendar year within the maintenance area , if the 98 th percentile

24

- hour PM 2.5 concentration exceeds 35.0 μg/m 3 in a single calendar year within the

maintenance area or if the periodic emissions inventory for the Lancaster Area exceeds the attainment year inventory (2007) by more than 10 percent . The first level response will consist of a study to determine whether the PM 2.5 value ind icates a trend toward higher PM 2.5 values and whether emissions appear to be increasing. If there appears to be an increasing trend, the study will evalu ate whether the trend is likely to continue and, if so, the necessary and appropriate control measures to reverse the trend. Implementation of necessary and appropriate controls would take place as expeditiously as possible.

A second level res ponse will be prompted if the 2

- year average of the annual mean PM 2.5 concentrations exceeds 1 5.0 μ g/m 3 or if the 2

- year average of 98 th percentile 24

- hour

PM 2.5 concentrations exceeds 35.0 μg/m 3 within the maintenance area. If this trigger point occurs, the Commonwealth will evaluate whether additional emission control measures should be implemented in order to pre vent a violation of the air quality

standard s

. The Department will analyze the conditions leading to the PM 2.5 levels and evaluate what measures might be most effective in correcting the PM 2.5 levels. The Department will also analyze the potential emissi ons effect of federal, state and local- 40

-

measures that have been adopted but not yet implemented at the time the second level response is triggered

. The Department will then begin the process of adop ting any

selected measures that are necessary and appropri ate so that in the event of a violation,

the measures can be implemented as expeditiously as practicable.

If a violation of the PM 2.5 NAAQS occurs, the Commonwealth will propose and adopt

additional emission reduction measures , as necessary and appropriat e, as expeditiously as practicable in accordance with the implementation schedule in this section , the CAA, the Pennsylvania Air Pollution Control Act , other Pennsylvania statutory requirements, and the Department’s Policy for Development, Approval and Ava ilability of Regulations in

order to return the area to attainment with the standard s

.

Additional emission reduction measures to be considered for adoption if a violation of the NAAQS occurs in the Lancaster Area would be based on criteria including the f ollowing :

 air quality analysis indicating nature of violation [cause, location, source];

 emission reduction potential, including extent to which emission generating sources occur in the nonattainment area;

 timeliness of implementation in terms of the pote ntial to return the area to attainment as expeditiously as practicable; and

 costs, equity and cost

- effectiveness.

Additional emission reduction measures the Department would consider pursuing for promulgation if a violation of the NAAQS occurs in the Lanc aster Area include the following :

Regulatory measures :

 A regulation based on the OTC Model Rule to update requirements for consumer products ;

 A regulation based on the Control Techniques Guidelines (CTG) for industrial cleaning solvents ; and

 Other regula tory measures identified base d on the above

- listed criteria.

Non

- regulatory measures:

 Voluntary diesel projects:

o Diesel retrofit (including replacement, repowering or alternative fuel use) for public or private local onroad or offroad fleets;

o Idling redu ction technolo gy for Class 2 yard locomotives; and

o Idling reduction technologies or strategies for truck stops, warehouses and

ot her freight

- handling facilities.

 Promotion of a ccelerated turnover of lawn and garden equipment, e specially commercial equipmen t.

 Additional promotion of alternative fuel s for fleets, home heating and agricultural

use.- 41

-

Once the Department’s Bureau of Air Quality has obtained an approved request to initiate a rulemaking, the rulemaking may proceed as follows:

Within 2 months: Re view by Air Quality Technical Advisory Committee (AQTAC), Citizens Advisory Council and other advisory committees

, 12 as appropriate.

Within 5 months: Environmental Qual ity Board (EQB) meeting/action.

Within 7 months: Publi cation in the Pennsylvania Bullet in for c omment as proposed rulemaking.

Within 9 months: Public hearing takes place and comment period on proposed

rule closes.

Within 10 months : Independent Regulatory Review Commission (IR RC) comment on proposed rule.

Within 12 months: AQTAC, Citizens Advisory Council and other advisory

committee s, as appropriate, review responses to comme nts and draft final rulemaking.

Within 15 months: EQB meeting/action.

Within 16 months: IRRC action on final rulemaking.

Within 17 months: Attorney General review/a cti on. Within 18 months: Publi cation in the Pennsylvania Bulletin as final rulemaking

and submi ssion to the EPA as a SIP revision. The regulation would become effective upon publication in the Pennsylvania Bulletin

.

12 Other committees could include the Small Business Compliance Advisory Committee and Agriculture Advisory

Committee.- 42

- ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AEO Annua l Energy Outlook AQTAC Air Quality Technical Advisory Committee

BACT Best Available Control Technology

BAT Best Available Technology

CAA Clean Air Act

CAIR Clean Air Interstate Rule

CA LEV California Low Emission Vehicle (program)

CF Control Factor

CFR Cod e of Federal Regulations

CMU Carnegie Mellon University

CMV Commercial Marine Vessel

DEP Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

EDMS Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System

EGAS Economic Growth Analysis System

EGU Electric Generating Unit

EI A Energy Information Administration

EIS Emission Inventory System

EPA The U nited S tates Environmental Protection Agency EQB Environmental Quality Board

ERC Emission Reduction Credit

ERTAC Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee

FAA Federal Aviation A dministration

FIP Federal Implementation Plan

FIRE Factor Information Retrieval

FMVCP Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program

FR Federal Register

FRM Federal Reference Method

HAP Hazardous Air Pollutant

I/M Inspection and Maintenance

IRRC Independent Regula tory Review Commission

ITN Itinerant

LDGV Light Duty Gasoline V ehicles

LDGT Light Duty Gasoline T rucks

MACT Maximum Achievable Control Technology

MANE

- VU Mid

- Atlanti c/ Northeast Visibility Union

MARAMA Mid

- Atlantic Regional Air Management Association

MOVES Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator

MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization

MY Model Year NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard

NAICS North American Industry Classification System

NEI National Emissions Inventory

NH 3 Ammonia

NLEV National Low Emission V ehicle (program)- 43

-

NMIM National Mobile Inventory Model

NO X Oxides of Nitrogen

NSR New Source Review OTAQ Office of Transportation and Air Quality

OTC Ozone Transport Commission

OTR Ozone Transport Region

OWB Outdoor Wood

- fired Boiler

PennDOT Pennsylvania De partment of Transportation

PM Particulate Matter

PM 2.5 Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter or Fine P articulates

PM 10 Particulate Matter less than 10 microns in diameter

PSD Prevention of Significant Deterioration

RWC Residential Wood Comb ustion

SCC Source Classification Code

SIP State Implementation Plan

SO 2 Sulfur Dioxide

TAF Terminal Area Forecast

TCM Transportation Control Measures

TSD Technical Support Document

μ g/m 3 M icrogram per cubic meter

μm Micrometer

VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled

VOC Volatile Organic Compound

WOE Weight of Evidence

ZEV Zero Emissions Vehicle

# C ommonwealth of Pennsylvania

Proposed Redesignation Request

Lancaster Nonattainment Area

1997 and 2006 Fine Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standard s

May 2014

Bureau of Air Quality Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

P.O. Box 8468 Harrisburg, PA 17 105

- 8468

717

- 787

- 9495

www.dep.state.pa.usThis page intentionally left blank

.TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 1

I. Demonstration of Attainment and Air Quality Trends Analysis

................................ ......... 4

A. Design Value Determination

................................ ................................ .................... 6

B. Air Quality Trends Analysis

................................ ................................ .................... 7

C. Climate Trends Analysis

................................ ................................ .......................... 9

1. Temperature Trends

................................ ................................ ................... 10

2. Precipitation Trends

................................ ................................ ................... 12

D. Additional Trends

................................ ................................ ................................ .. 13

1. Population Trends

................................ ................................ ...................... 13

2. Economic Trends

................................ ................................ ....................... 14

E. Modelin g Analysis

................................ ................................ ................................ . 15

II. SIP Approvals and Applicable Requirements

................................ ................................ .... 16

A. Section 110(a)(2) of the CAA

................................ ................................ ................ 16

B. Part D

- Plan Requirements for Nonattainment Areas

................................ ........... 17

1. Section 172(c) of the CAA

................................ ................................ ........ 17

2. Section 173 of the CAA

................................ ................................ ............. 18

3. Section 176 of the CAA

................................ ................................ ............. 18

4. Section 189(e) of the CAA

................................ ................................ ........ 19

C. Conclusion

................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 19

III. Demonstration of Permanent and Enforceable Improvement

................................ ............ 19

A. Baseline (2002) Emissions Inventory

................................ ................................ .... 21

B. Attainment Year (2007) Emissions Inventory

................................ ....................... 22

C. Control Measures

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 23

1. Stationary Point Sources

................................ ................................ ............ 25

2. Highway Vehicle Sources

................................ ................................ .......... 30

3. Nonroad Sources

................................ ................................ ........................ 33

4. Stationary Area Sources

................................ ................................ ............. 34

IV. Maintenance Plan

................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 34

Acronyms and Abbreviations

................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 37TABLES

Table I

- 1: Lancaster Area Annual PM 2.5 Concentrations

................................ ............................... 7

Table I

- 2: Lancaster Area 24

- Hour PM 2.5 Concentrations

................................ ............................. 7

Table I

- 3: Lancaster Area Annual PM 2.5 Design Values

................................ ................................ 7

Table I

- 4: Lancaster Area 24

- Hour PM 2.5 Design Values

................................ .............................. 8

Table I

- 5: Lancaster Area Monthly Mean Temperature (°F)

................................ ....................... 11

Table I

- 6: Lancaster Area Precipitation (inches)

................................ ................................ .......... 12

Table III

- 1: 2002 Lancaster Area Annual Emissions (Tons per Year)

................................ ......... 22

Table III

- 2: 2007 Lancaster Area Annual Emissions (Tons per Year)

................................ ......... 23

Table III

- 3: Change i n Lancaster Area Annual Emissions (Tons per Year) from 2002 to

2007

................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 24

Table III

- 4: Summary of Emission Totals (Tons) in 2007, 2 017 and 2025

................................ .. 25

FIGURES

Figure I

- 1: Pennsylvania’s 1997 PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas

................................ ...................... 5

Figure I

- 2: Pennsylvania’s 2006 PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas

................................ ...................... 5

Figure I

- 3 : PM2.5 Annual Concentration Trend

................................ ................................ ............. 8

Figure I

- 4 : PM2.5 24

- Hour Concentration Trend

................................ ................................ ........... 9

Figure I

- 5 : Pie Chart of 2007 Lancaster Speciation Data

................................ ............................. 10

Figure I

- 6 : Lancaster Area Monthly Mean Temperature (°F)

................................ ...................... 11

Figure I

- 7 : Lancaster Area Annual Precipitation (inches)

................................ ............................ 12

Figure I

- 8 : Lancaster Area Population Trend

................................ ................................ ............... 13

Figure I

- 9 : Lancaster Area Population and Labor Force Trends

................................ .................. 14

Figure I

- 10 : Pennsylvania and National Coincident Indexes from the Philadelphia

Federal Reserve Bank

................................ ................................ ................................ . 15- 1

-

INTRODUCTION

Particulate matter (PM) is a mixture of microscopic solids and liquid droplets suspended in air that include: acids (such as nitrates and sulfates), organic chemicals, metals, soil or dust particles and allergens (such as fragments of pollen or mold spores). Fine particle pollution or PM 2.5 describes particulate matter that is less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (μm) in diameter, approximately 1/30th the di ameter of a human hair. Because of their small size, fine particles can penetrate deeply into the lungs.

Health studies have shown a significant association between exposure to fine particles and premature death from heart or lung disease. Fine particle s can aggravate heart and lung diseases and have been linked to effects such as cardiovascular symptoms, cardiac arrhythmias, heart attacks, respiratory symptoms, asthma attacks, and bronchitis. These effects can result in increased hospital admissions, e mergency room visits, absences from school or work, and restricted activity days. Individuals that may be particularly sensitive to fine particle exposure include people with heart or lung disease, older adults, and children. The article, “Fine

Particula te Air Pollution and Life Expectancy in the United States” by C. Arden Pope, III, et al. published January 22, 2009 in the New England Journal of Medicine evaluate d the role PM 2.5 reductions occurring in the 1980s and 1990s had on the increased life expect ancy observed over that period. The study found that a reduction of 10 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m 3 ) of PM 2.5 was associated with an average increase in life expectancy of 7.3 months.

PM 2.5 has significant environmental impacts, including acid rain and stream eutrophication.

PM 2.5 also affects visibility (regional haze) through the scattering and absorption of light. Fine particles, similar in size to the wavelength of light, are most effi cient, per unit of mass, at reducing visibility

. Soiling and materials damage can also be caused by PM 2.5 in the air.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued PM 2.5 national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) in 1997 after evaluating hundreds of health studies and conducting an extensive peer review process. The EPA established an annual primary (health

- based) and secondary (welfare

- based) standard of 15.0 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m 3 ), based on the

3

- yea r average of annual mean PM 2.5 concentrations. The EPA also established a primary and secondary 24

- hour standard of 65 μg/m 3 determined by the 3

- year average of the 98th percent ile

of 24

- hour concentrations. In 2006, the EPA promulgated a revised 24

- hour PM 2.5 standard of

35 μg/m 3 determined by the 3

- year average of the 98th percent ile of 24

- hour concentrations. The annual standard was not revised. ( 71 FR 61 144 (October 17, 2006))

On December 17, 2004, the EPA issued air quality designations for the PM 2.5 standard based on air quality monitoring data from 2001

- 2003. The final designations were published in the Federal Register on January 5, 2005 (70 FR 944). The designations became effective on April 5, 2005. On April 5, 2005, the EPA issued a supple mental notice changing the designation of certain areas from nonattainment to attainment based on newly available air quality data (70 FR 19844; April 14, 2005). The April 5, 2005

, supplemental notice only affected Mercer County in th e Commonwealth of Pen nsylvania.- 2

-

The Lancaster Area was one of eight areas in Pennsylvania, comprising all or parts of

21 Pennsylvania counties , designated by t he EPA as nonattainment for the 1997 PM 2.5 N AAQS.

The Lancaster Area, consisting of Lancaster County in Pennsylvania

, was designated by EPA as nonattainment because it violated the 1997 annual standard of 15.0 μg/m 3 based on 2001

- 20 03 monitoring data . The Lancaster Area did not violate the 1997 24

- hour standard of 65 μg/m 3

.

On October 8 , 200 9 , the EPA promulgated air quality designations for the 2006 24

- hour PM 2.5 standard based on 200 6

- 200 8 air quality monitoring data

. The final designations were published

in the Federal Register on November 13, 2009 (7 4 FR 58688 )

. The EPA designated seven areas comprised of all or portions of 2 2 counties in Pennsylvania as PM 2.5 nonattainment areas. The designations became effective on December 14, 2009

.

The Lancaster Area was one of seven areas in Pennsylvania designated by t he EPA as nonattainment for the 2006 PM 2.5 N AAQS. The Lancaster Area w as designated nonattainment

because the area violated the 2006 24

- hour PM 2.5 standard of 3 5 μg/ m 3 based on 200 6

- 20 0 8 monitoring data

.

The subsequent analyses described in this Request for Redesignation clearly demonstrate that the ambient air quality in the Lancaster Area now meets the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS . T he

emission reductions responsible for the improvements in PM 2.5 air quality are both permanent
and enforceable. These analyse s and the maintenance plan submitted concurrently demonstrate

that the Lancaster Area has completed all criteria set forth in Section 107(d)(3)(E) of the Clean Air Act (CAA) and should be officially redesignated as attainment for both the 1997 and 2006

PM 2 .5 NAAQS

.

Section 107(d)(3)(E) of the CAA states that an area may be redesignated to attainment if the following conditions are met:

● The NAAQS has been attained ( discussed in Section I ) ;

● The applicable implementation plan has been fully approved und er Section 110(k) of the

CAA and the state has met all applicable requirements for the area under Section 110 and

Part D ( discussed in Section II ) ;

● The improvement in air quality is due to permanent and enforceable reductions in emissions ( discussed in Section I and Section III ) ; and

A Maintenance P lan with contingency measures has been fully approved under Section 175A ( discussed in Section IV )

.

This Request for Redesignation describes how the Lancaster Area satisfies each of the C AA ’s

Section 107(d)(3)(E) criteria for redesignation to attainment.

Requirements for a public comment process are set forth in Section 110(a)(2) of the CAA,

40 CFR Section 51.102(d) and Section 7.5 of the Pennsylvania Air Pollution Control Act.

35 P.S. Section 4007. 5 (b)

. O n March 8, 2014, t he Department provided notice of a public- 3

-

comment period and the opportunity for a hearing on the Maintenance Plan, 2007 comprehensive inventory required by Section 172(c)(3) of the CAA, and this Request for Redesignation

. The p ublic comment period closed April 11, 2014. The Department scheduled the public hearing to occur on April 10, 2014, but no persons expressed interest in presenting testimony or attending. Therefore, the Department cancelled the hearing. The Department

r eceived comments from one commentator, which have been addressed in a Comment and Response document.- 4

-

I. DEMONSTRATION OF ATT AINMENT AND AIR QUAL ITY TRENDS

ANALYSIS

On December 17, 2004, the EPA issued air quality designations for the 1997 PM 2.5 annual st andard based on 2001

- 2003 air quality monitoring data

. The final designations were published in the Federal Register on January 5, 2005 (70 FR 944). The designations became effective on April 5, 2005. On April 5, 2005, the EPA issued a supplemental notice changing the designation of certain areas from nonattainment to attainment based on newly available air quality data (70 FR 19844; April 14, 2005). The April 5, 2005 supplemental notice only affected Mercer County in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvani a (Commonwealth or Pennsylvania ).

The Lancaster Area was one of eight areas in Pennsylvania, comprising all or parts of

21 Pennsylvania counties , designated by t he EPA as nonattainment for the 1997 PM 2.5 N AAQS. The Lancaster Area, consisting of Lancaster County in Pennsylvania, was designated as nonattainment because it violated the 1997 annual standard of 15.0 μg/m 3

based on 2001

- 20 03 monitoring data . The Lancaster Area did not violate the 1997 24

- hour standard of 65 μg/m 3

.

On October 8 , 200 9 , the EPA promulgated air quality designations for the 2006 PM 2.5 standard based on 200 6

- 200 8 air quality monitoring data

. The final designations were published in the Federal Register on November 13, 2009 (7 4 FR 58688 )

. The EPA designated seven areas comprised of all or portions of 2 2 counties in Pennsylvania as

PM 2.5 nonattainment areas. The designations became effective on December 14, 2009

.

The Lancaster Area was one of seven areas in Pennsylvania designated by t he EPA as nonattainment for the 2006 PM 2.5 N A AQS. The Lancaster Area w as designated

nonattainment because the area violated the 2006 24

- hour PM 2.5 standard of 3 5 μg/m 3

based on 200 6

- 20 0 8 monitoring data

.- 5

- Figure I

- 1: Pennsylvania’s 1997 PM 2.5 Nonattainment Areas

Figure I

- 2: Pennsylvania’s 2006 PM 2.5 Nonattainment Areas- 6

-

Air quality in the Lancaster Area has improved since the EPA’s original designations.

The Lancaster Area’s annual PM 2.5 design value has decreased over the 2001 to 201 2

time frame. Based on 2001

- 2003 air quality monitoring data, t he Lancaster Area’s

annual and 24

- hour design value s for 2003 were 17.0 μ g/m 3 and 45 μg/m 3 , respectively

. Based on 2001

- 2003 air quality monitoring data, t he Lancaster Area’s 201 2 annual and

24

- hour design value s w ere 12.1 μ g/m 3 and 31 μg/m 3 . Foll owing EPA criteria, annual

PM 2.5 design value s below 15.0 μ g/m 3 and 24

- hour design values below 35 μg/m 3 are considered to be attainment. Annual and 24

- hour c oncentrati ons are expected to remain

lower than 15 μ g/m 3 and 35 μg/m 3 over the next decade.

On September 25, 2009, the EPA determined that the Lancaster Area had attained the

1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS based on quality assured, quality controlled and certified ambient air monitoring data that show the area had monitored attainment based on 2006

- 2008 data (“Cl ean Data Determination”) (74 FR 48863). This final action suspended the requirements for this area to submit an attainment demonstration and associated reasonably available control measures, reasonable further progress plans, contingency

measures and othe r planning SIP revisions related to the attainment of the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS for so long as the area continues to attain the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS 1

.

On March 29, 2012, the EPA determined that the Lancaster Area had attained the 2006

PM 2.5 NAAQS based on quality assured, quality controlled and certified ambient air monitoring data that show the area had monitored attainment based on 2008

- 2010 data (“Clean Data Determination”) (77 FR 18922 ). This final action suspended the requirements for this area to submit an a ttainment demonstration and associated reasonably available control measures, reasonable further progress plans, contingency measures and other planning SIP revisions related to the attainment of the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS for so long as the area continues to at tain the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS.

The determination of attainment did not “ redesignate ” the area as “attainment.” The

Lancaster Area remains nonattainment for the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS until the Commonwealth submits, and EPA approves, a Request for R edesignation and a Maintenance Plan showing the area can maintain the se standard s for at least 10 years.

A. Design Value Determination

The ambient air quality analysis is based on PM 2.5 data measured at the Lancaster

Area monitoring site. The ambient air quality data analysis for PM 2.5 was completed using the appropriate regulations and guidance documents. Monitoring procedures were determined in accordance with 40 CFR Part 58

. The PM 2.5 design values were calculated in accordance with 40 CFR Part 50 , Appendix N,

“ Interpretation of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Particulate

Matter. ”

1 The EPA followed this action on July 29, 2011 (76 FR 45424) with a statutorily required determination under

Section 179(c) of the CAA, that the Lancaster Area attained the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS by the applicable attainment date of April 5, 2010. EPA based this determination on complete, quality assured, and certified ambient air monitoring data that show the area monitored attainment for the 2007

- 2009 monitoring period.- 7

-

B

. Air Quality Trends Analysis

T his section provides a brief summary of PM 2.5 monitoring concentrations in t he

Lancaster Area

.

Trends in PM 2.5 design v alues were analyzed from 2001 through 201 2

. Table I

- 1 displays annual PM 2.5 concentrations monitored in the Lancaster Area. Table I

- 2

contains the 98 th percent ile of 24

- hour concentrations for each year

.

Table I

- 1: Lancaster Area Annual PM 2.5 Concentrations

Annual Mean Site and AQS

ID 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Grofftown Rd

42

- 071

- 0007 17.2 16.2 17.6 16.6 18.2 14.1 15.4 13.9 12.2 11.7 12.0 12.6

Table I

- 2: Lancaster Area 24

- Hour PM 2.5 Concentrations

Annual 98% Concentration Site and AQS

ID 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Grofftown Rd

42

- 071

- 0007 42.1 40.2 51.5 35.5 45.2 34.9 39.6 35.0 29.4 34.1 29.9 28.9

Tables I

- 3 and I

- 4 contain the Lancaster Area ’ s annual and 24

- hour PM 2.5 design

values calculated using the 2001 through 2012 monitoring data. Design values

for the annual and 24

- hour PM 2.5 NAAQS show a declining trend. The Lancaster Area was designated as nonattainment for the 1997 annual standard based on the

200 1 through 2003 annual design value of 17.0 μg/m 3

. The 24

- hour design value for that time period was 45 μ g/m 3 . Compared with the 2001 through 2003 design values, the annual design value for 20 10 through 201 2 has decreased by

29 percent and the 24

- hour design value by 31 percent

. The annual and 24

- hour

PM 2.5 design values for the Lancaster Area are shown below in Tables I

- 3 and I

- 4, respectively.

Table I

- 3: Lancaster Area Annual PM 2.5 Design Values- 8

- Table I

- 4 : Lancaster Area 24

- Hour PM 2.5 Design Values

The 2001 through 2012 trend lines for annual and 24

- hour PM 2.5 concentrations are shown in Figures I

- 2 and I

- 3

. As shown in Figures I

- 2 and I

- 3, the slope of

the trend lines for the annual and 24

- hour PM 2.5 concentrations are both negat ive, indicating decreasing concentrations.

Figure I

- 3 : PM 2.5 Annual Concentration Trend

y =

- 0.5704x + 18.519

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PM2.5 Concentration (ug/m3) 

## PM 2.5 

## Annual Trend

Yearly PM2.5

Mean

Level of 1997

Annual

Standard- 9

- Figure I

- 4 : PM 2.5 24

- Hour Concentration Trend

C

. Climate Trends Analysis

PM 2.5 formation in the eastern United States is a complex process involving local and regional meteorology, topography, chemistry and transport. Sulfates and nitrates are formed primarily through atmospheric reactions of precursor

emissions of sulfur dioxide ( SO 2 )

, oxides of nitrogen ( NO X ) and ammonia ( NH 3 )

. Organic carbon is a combination of secondary organic particles formed from

emissions of volatile organic compounds ( VOC ) and the organic portion of primary PM 2.5 that is directly emitted or condenses near its source. Currently, our understanding of sulfate and nitrate chemistry and its impacts on PM 2.5 concentrations far exceeds our understanding of contributions from anthropogenic VOCs. This is important because sulfates, nitrates , ammonium and organic

c arbon are major contributors to the total PM 2.5 , making up approximately

80 percent of the annual PM 2.5 concentration observed in the Lancaster Area in

2007. y =

- 1.4549x + 46.648

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PM2.5 Concentration (ug/m3) 

## PM 2.5 

## 24

- Hour Trend

24-Hour

PM2.5 98th%

Level of 1997

24-Hour

Standard- 10

- Figure I

- 5 : Pie Chart of 2007 Lancaster Speciation Data

Attainment of the PM 2.5 NAAQS involves the range of meteorological conditions throughout the year. PM 2.5 chemistry favors sulfate formation during the warm summer months and nitrate formation during the colder winter months. In addition, local temperature inversions more common in the winter can concentrate emissions near the surface, leading to periods of elevated PM 2.5 concentrations.

To assess whether it is likely that unusual meteorological patterns have

contributed to the lower PM 2.5 concentrations observed in the Lancaster Area, temperature and precipitation trends over the last 10 years were examined

.

The data used in the trends analysis is from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) database for the Lancaster Airport. The monthly summary data

was obtained from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center at: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo

- web/search#t=secondTabLink

1. Temperature Trends

Table I

- 5 presents monthly mean temperature data for the Lancaster A rea for 2001 through 201 2 . Figure I

- 5 graphically displays the data. Lancaster Percentage of Total Mass

Year 2007

Nitrate

17%

Sulfate

25%

Ammonium

15% Organic carbon

22% Elemental carbon

4% Crustal component

2% Other

15%- 11

- Table I

- 5: Lancaster Area Monthly Mean Temperature ( ° F)

Lancaster Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001 27.9 33.6 37.6 50.9 61.0 71.1 71.1 75.2 64.0 54.9 48.0 39.4

2002 35.2 37.0 41.9 54.0 59.9 71.6 76.6 75.6 67.5 52.3 41.7 30.0

2003 24.6 25.9 40.3 49.5 57.6 67.6 73.9 74.7 65.8 51.6 47.5 33.8

2004 23.5 31.5 43.3 52.3 66.9 68.5 73.0 71.6 67.5 53.4 45.7 34.5

2005 29.1 32.9 36.7 53.1 56.8 72.9 75.6 75.7 70.0 55.9 45.9 30.7

2006 38.8 32.5 42.1 53.4 61.0 70.5 76.3 74.5 63.5 52.7 47.5 39.9

2007 35.1 25.0 40.3 48.0 63.3 71.8 72.9 73.0 67.5 60.8 42.3 34.2

2008 32.5 32.2 41.4 52.5 57.2 72.7 74.1 70.3 66.2 52.3 42.3 34.3

2009 25.0 33.1 40.5 51.4 61.7 69.3 71.1 74.1 64.2 52.7 48.0 32.7

2010 30.4 28.9 46.6 54.1 64.2 73.8 77.4 74.7 68.5 54.5 43.7 30.0

2011 25.9 32.7 40.5 54.0 64.8 72.3 78.6 73.2 67.5 53.6 47.3 39.0

2012 34.7 37.4 49.8 51.1 66.4 70.7 78.1 74.3 65.5 55.0 40.1 38.8

Figure I

- 6 : Lancaster Area Monthly Mean Temperature ( ° F)

The Lancaster Area was designated nonattainment for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS based on 2001 through 2003 monitoring data and nonattainment

for the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS based on 2006 through 2008 monitoring data

. These timeframe s show typical year

- to

- year variation in temperatur e with

no unusual conditions that would be expected to cause higher PM 2.5 concentrations as experienced . The Lancaster Area’s C lean D ata

D etermination s for the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS w ere based on 200 6 through 200 8

, and 2008 through 2010 monitoring data, respectively. T he

Lancaster Area continues to monitor attainment. Examination of the temperature data from 200 6 through 201 2 shows normal variation in 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 

## Monthly Mean Temperature (F)- 12

- seasonal temperatures but no evidence of unusual patterns that would be expected to repress PM 2.5 formation.

2. Precipitation Trends

Table I

- 6 presents monthly and annual precipitation data for the Lancaster

A rea for 2001 through 201 2 . Figure I

- 6 graphically displays the annual precipitation data.

Table I

- 6: Lancaster Area Precipitation (inches)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual

Total

2001 2.1 1.7 4.0 2.2 3.2 1.8 1.1 4.5 4.3 0.7 0.9 1.5 27.9

2002 2.5 0.3 3.6 3.4 5.6 3.5 1.1 3.5 3.1 7.8 3.8 4.3 42.4

2003 1.5 3.0 3.3 2.6 4.4 6.0 2.6 3.6 8.7 4.6 3.8 2.4 46.3

2004 1.7 2.8 1.7 5.9 3.2 5.7 7.2 5.6 5.8 2.0 3.6 3.1 48.1

2005 3.3 1.5 3.6 4.2 1.1 5.7 7.0 1.5 0.8 8.1 3.0 3.0 42.7

2006 3.9 1.6 0.9 4.1 2.5 13.1 3.6 1.2 6.0 3.4 6.0 2.2 48.3

2007 2.1 1.8 3.0 4.4 1.3 4.2 5.1 4.3 1.0 5.3 2.7 3.8 39.0

2008 0.9 4.7 3.1 1.0 3.7 2.7 6.6 1.3 4.9 2.2 1.5 3.4 36.0

2009 1.8 0.8 1.5 4.1 4.4 4.6 2.2 6.0 4.2 5.8 1.5 4.3 41.2

2010 1.4 1.8 3.1 1.9 3.9 1.4 6.1 1.5 7.9 3.6 2.1 2.0 36.5

2011 1.5 2.9 4.2 6.4 5.2 4.6 1.7 6.7 13.1 3.5 4.3 3.1 57.1

2012 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.8 3.8 4.1 3.7 1.4 6.1 7.2 1.1 3.2 37.8

Figure I

- 7 : Lancaster Area Annual Precipitation (inches)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Precipitation (inches) 

## Annual Precipitation- 13

- Examination of the 2001 through 2003 precipitation data indicates both drier and wetter than usual year s within the timeframe . Examination of

the precipitation data from 200 6 through 2011 also shows variation in precipitation amounts. There is no indication from the data that unusual precipitation patterns contribute d to the lower PM 2.5 concentrations in recent years in which the Lancaster Area monitored attainment of the

PM 2. 5 NAAQS

.

D

. Additional Trends

1. Population Trends

The Lancaster Area

, which consists of Lancaster County

, has had significant population growth over the last decade

. The population of Lancaster County increased approximately 10 percent between the 2000

and 2010 Censuses. According to the Bureau of the Census, t he population of Lancaster County was 471

, 818 in 2000 and 519

, 445 in 2010. Lancaster County ranked the 6 th largest in population in Pennsylvania.

Population increases correspon d with increased emissions from some types of emission sources and

, therefore

, can result in increased pollution

levels. While the Lancaster Area ’s population has grown approximately

10 percent o ver the last decade, t his growth has not resulted in increased

PM 2.5 concentrations. In fact, the area ’s PM 2.5 concentrations have declined in spite of the increase in population.

Figure I

- 8 : Lancaster Area Population Trend

440,000 450,000 460,000 470,000 480,000 490,000 500,000 510,000 520,000 530,000 

## Lancaster County Population Trend

Population- 14

- 2. E conomic Trends

Economic trends could have impacts on emissions and consequently affect

PM 2.5 concentrations in the Lancaster Area . The two factors considered here include estimated labor force changes in the Lancaster Area and overall economic activity in Pennsylvania as measured by the Coincident

Index. T he labor force data was obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Mid

- Atlantic Information Office. The Coincident Index data was obtained from the Philadelphia Reserve Bank

.

Figure I

- 8 shows the Lancaster Area ’s population c hange and estimated labor force change since 1980. A larger labor force could lead to more driving and increased infrastructure demands. This in turn could lead to higher emissions. Increases in the county’s labor force also contribute to

overall increa ses in economic activity (greater family income/spending). The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank has tracked economic activity in Pennsylvania over the last 25 years. Pennsylvania’s Economic Activity Index is graphically depicted in Figure I

- 9. In spite of these upward trends, air quality continues to improve in the Lancaster Area

.

Figure I

- 9 : Lancaster Area Population and Labor Force Trends

Data Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Mid

- Atlantic Information Office The database containing “ State and local industry employment and earnings

– monthly ” data was accessed from the following site: www.bls.gov/ro3/data.htm 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000

1980 1990 2000 2010 

## Lancaster County Population and Labor

Force Trends

Nonfarm Employment

Population- 15

-

Figure I

- 10 : Pennsylvania and National Coincident Indexes from the Philadelphia Federal

Reserve Bank

Data downloaded on 5/24/2012 from: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia at: www.philadelphiafe d.org/research

- and

- data/regional

- economy/indexes/coincident/

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia produces a monthly coincident

index for each of the 50 states. The coincident indexes combine

four state

- level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state

- level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long

- term growth in the state’s index matches long

- term growth in its GDP.

E

. M odeling Analysi s

Modeling that EPA conducted to analyze the impact of revising the PM 2.5 NAAQS , summarized in the Regulatory Impact Analysis of December 2012, indicates that Lancaster County would maintain the 1997 and 2006 NAAQS, as well as attain the 2012 NAAQS with a concentration of 9.4 μ g/m 3 in 2020. 2 The

mo deling was p erformed with a 2007 base year. The projection to 2020 took into account reductions expected to occur between 2007 and 2020 from existing federal and State control programs

. The results of EPA’s modeling support redesignating the Lancaster Ar ea to attainment for the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS.

2 www.epa.gov/air/particlepollution/2012/2020table.pdf

0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00

Jan-79 Feb-81 Mar-83 Apr-85 May-87 Jun-89 Jul-91 Aug-93 Sep-95 Oct-97 Nov-99 Dec-01 Jan-04 Feb-06 Mar-08 Apr-10 Coincident Index 

## Pennsylvania and National Coincident

Indexes

PA

US- 16

-

I I

. SIP APPROVALS A ND APPLICABLE REQUIR EMENTS

In order for EPA to redesignat e a nonattainment area to attainment, the applicable SIP revision must be fully approved by the EPA under Section 110(k) of the CAA. In addition, the state must have met all requirements applicable to the area under

Section 110 and Part D

- Plan Requirements for Nonattainment Areas. The specific requirements applicable to the Lancaster Area can be found in S ections 110(a)(2), a nd

Part D S ections 172(c) (relating to nonattainment plan provisions)

, 173 (relating to permit requirements) and 176 (relating to limitations on certain federal assistance) of the CAA

. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia circuit has als o recently held that EPA must implement the PM 2.5 NAAQS pursuant to Subpart 4 of Part D

– see Section III

below for more information.

These requirements have been fulfilled for the Lancaster A rea.

A. Section 110(a)(2) of the CAA

Section 110(a) of the CAA contains the general requirements for a SIP. Pennsylvania concludes that, as EPA has stated in previous rulemaking in another

state

, 3 only the Section 110 and Part D requirements that are linked with a particular area’s designation are t he relevant measures to consider in evaluating a redesignation request. Further, Pennsylvania believes that the other Section 110 elements that are not connected with nonattainment plan submissions and not

linked with an area’s attainment status are also not applicable requirements for purposes of redesignation. A state remains subject to these requirements after an area is redesignated to attainment.

The requirements of Section 110(a)(2 ) of the CAA that are statewide requirements and that are not linked to the PM 2.5 nonattainment status of the

Lancaster Area are not applicable requirements for purposes of review of the

Commonwealth’s PM 2.5 redesignation request. However, EPA requires that the

Commonwealth’s Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) requirements be approved prior to redesignation, because PSD requirements will apply after redesignation. Sections 110(a)(2)(C) and 110(a)(2)(J) of the CAA require state plans to meet the requirements of CAA, Subchapter I, Part C, which contains PSD

requ irements. In addition

, Section 110(a)(2)(I) requires that a plan revision for an

area de signated as a nonattainment area meet the applicable requirements of
CAA, Subchapter I, Part D (relating to nonattainment areas). Therefore, Pennsylvania has conclude d that only the parts of Sections 110(a)(2)(C), 110(a)(2)(I) and 110(a)(2)(J) that relate to Part D applicable requirements or PSD are applicable for purposes of redesignation.

3 See EPA’s proposed approval of Ohio’s redesignation request for the Ohio portion of the Huntington

- Ashland

nonattainment area for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS (76 FR 79593). On December 31, 2012, EPA published final approval of Ohio’s redesignation request for the Ohio portion of the Huntington

- Ashland nonattainm ent area for the

1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS (77 FR 76883).- 17

- EPA has previously approved provisions of Pennsylvania ’s SIP addressing

Sectio n 110 requirements, including provisions addressing PM 2.5

. Pennsylvania’s SIP measures meeting Section 110(a)(2)(C) and 110(a)(2)(J) requirements are fully approved under Section 110(k) of the CAA. The Maintenance Plan associated with this Request for Re designation for the Lancaster Area is a SIP revision for an area designated as a nonattainment area and meets the applicable requirements of Part D of Subchapter I of the CAA . T herefore, the Maintenance Plan associated with this Request for Redesignation meets the requirements of

Section 110(a)(2)(I). Please see the discussion below concerning Part D (plan requirements for nonattainment areas)

.

B. Part D

- Plan Requirements for Nonattainment Areas

1. Sect ion 172(c) of the CAA

Section 172 of the CAA contains the general provisions required to be

included in SIP revisions for nonattainment areas. These include attainment demonstrations, reasonably available control measures, reasonable further progress, inventory data, and permitting requirements.

As stated above, o n September 25, 200 9

, the EPA determined that the

Lancaster Area had attained the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS (“Clean Data Determination”) (7 3 FR 49949 ) . EPA’s Clean Data Determination was based on quality

- assured, quality

- controlled and certified ambient air monitoring data that show the area ha d monitored attainment since the

200 6 through 200 8 monitoring period

. The Clean Data Determination suspended the requirements for this area to submit an attainment demonstration, associated reasonably available control measures, a reasonable further progress plan, contingency measures, and other planning SIP revisions related to attainment of the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS for so long as the area continues to meet the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS.

O n March 29, 2012, the EPA determined that the Lancaster Area had

attained the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS based on quality assured, quality controlled and certified ambient air monitoring data that show the area had

monitored attainment based on 2008

- 2010 data (“Clean Data Determination”) (7 7 FR 18922 ). This final action suspended the requirements for this area to submit an attainment demonstration and associated reasonably available control measures, reasonable further progress plans, contingency measures and other planning SIP revisions

re lated to the attainment of the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS for so long as the area

continues to attain the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS.

Submittal of a comprehensive inventory is required by 40 CFR

Section 51.1008 to meet the requirements of Section 172(c)(3) of the

CAA . This requirement was not suspended by the Clean Data- 18

- Determination

. In fulfillment of this requirement, t he 2007 inventory

, which also serves as the attainment year inventory, is being submitted as part of the Maintenance P lan, su bmitted concurrently with this Request for Redesignation

.

2

. Section 173 of the CAA

Section 173 of the CAA outlines requirements related to permitting of air pollution sources in nonattainment areas.

Stationary air pollution sources are subject to the regulations of the

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania Code in Title 25 Environmental Resources ( 25 Pa. Code Chapters 121

- 145). These regulations include:

● Standards of Performance for New Stationary Sources promulgated by EPA under the Clean Air Act (25 Pa. Code Chapter 122) ;

● Standards for Contaminants ( 25 Pa. Code Chapter 123) ;

● National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (25 Pa.

Code Chapter 124);

● Construction, Modification, Reactivation and Operation of Sources, including plan approval, prevention of si gnificant deterioration, new source review, operating permit program (25 Pa. Code Chapter 127);

● Standards for Sources ( 25 Pa. Code Chapter 129) ; and

● Annual Emission Statements and required reporting to the Department ( 25 Pa. Code Chapter 135).

These permitting, stationary source monitoring and reporting, preconstruction review, offset ratios and enforceable emission limitations requirements were adopted to implement the fed erally mandated requirements in S ections 110, 172, 173 and 182(a) of the CAA. EPA has approved all of these regulations as SIP revisions

, as indicated in

Section III of this document

.

3

. Section 176 of the CAA

Section 176 (c) of the CAA contains the provision prohibiting federal financing of projects or activities that do not conform to an approved implementation plan.- 19

- The Commonwealth adopted and incorporated EPA’s G eneral C onformity rule (40 CFR Part 93, Subpart B) by reference in its entirety in 25 Pa.

Code Section 127.802 . The G eneral C onformity regulation describes procedures to determine if federally

- financed, non

- transportation projects

are in con formity with air quality plans

.

EPA and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) have issued regulations regarding criteria and procedures for demonstrating and

assuri ng conformity of transportation improvement programs (TIP or program), long range plans (LRP or plan), and individual transportation projects with the requirements of the CAA and the SIP for the specific nonattainment area. Affected transportation plannin g organizations are complying with all federal laws, regulations and guidance for transportation conformity.

4

. Section 189(e) of the CAA

In light of a recent court decision

, Natural Resources Defense Council v.

EPA , No. 08

- 1250, 706 F.3d 428 ( D.C. Cir. 2013) (see discussion in

Section II I ), the Department considered Section 189(e) of the CAA

. According to Section 189(e) and the court decision

, control requirements

in nonattainment areas applicable for major stationary sources of PM also apply to major stationary sources of PM precursors. Pennsylvania

assessed emissions of PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC and NH 3 for the

maintenance demonstration

. Please see Section III

- C

- 1 relating to control measures for stationary sources for a discussion of the stationary sour ce control measures in place in the Lancaster Area.

C. Conclusion

The requirements of Section 110(a) and Subpart D of the CAA have been fulfilled

in the Lancaster Area for the 1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS.

I II

. DEMONSTRATION OF PER MANENT AND ENFORCEAB LE IMPROVEMENT

This section provides an assessment of the PM 2.5 and PM 2.5 precursor emissions at a time

the Lancaster A rea was monitoring nonattainment of the PM 2.5 NAAQS and at the time

when this area attained the PM 2.5 NAAQS. A 2002 ( baseline ) inventory of PM 2.5 and

PM 2.5 precursor emissions is used to represent emissions during the PM 2.5 nonattain ment designation period. A 2007 inventory is used to identify PM 2.5 and PM 2.5 precursor emissions during a period when the Lancaster A rea demonstra ted that it attained the

PM 2.5 NAAQS. Detailed information is presented in the Maintenance Plan by sector.

Because of the complexity and variability of the process of particulate matter formation, the EPA recognizes that effective control measures for PM 2.5 will vary among- 20

-

nonattainment areas. This recognition was reflected in EPA’s “Implementation Guidance

for the 2006 24

- Hour Fine Particle National Ambient Air Quality Standard,” Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, EPA, March 2, 2012 (“Implementation Guidance for

the 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS”). In the Implementation Guidance for the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS, EPA adopted the framework and policy approach the agency espoused in its implementation rule for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS, known as the “ Cle an Air Fine Particle Implementation Rule (72 FR 20586 ; April 25, 2007) (the Implementation Rule for the

1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS” )

In its Implementation Rule for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS, EPA had established general presumptive policies for assessing which PM 2.5 prec ursors should be evaluated for possible controls. In that earlier rule, t he EP A require d states to evaluate control

measures for SO 2 and primary PM 2.5 in all locations. The EPA require d states to evaluate

control measures for NO X unless a technical demonstration is made to show NO X does not significantly contribute to PM 2.5 . The EPA require d states to evaluate measures for

VOC and NH 3 only if a technical demonstration is made to show they significantly

contribute to PM 2.5 in that area.

The EPA reaffirmed the appropriateness of these presumptions in its Implementation

Guidance for the 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS. Meanwhile, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit was considering a challenge to the Implementation Rule for the 1997

PM 2.5 NAAQS, in Natural Resources Defense Council v. EPA, No. 08

- 1250. On January 4, 2013, the Court handed down its ruling in that case.

The C ourt granted the petitions for review and remanded the case to EPA to re

promulgate the rule pursuant to Subpar t 4 of Part D of the Clean Air Act, rather than implementing it under Subpart 1, as EPA had done ( 706 F.3d 428, 437 ( D.C. Cir. 2013))

.

Shortly thereafter, the EPA withdrew its Implementation Guidance for the 2006 24

- Hour

PM 2.5 NAAQS. According to EPA’s June, 2013 withdrawal memorandum (see

second page of memorandum) 4 , EPA withdrew the guidance in response to the Court’s

decision in Natural Resources Defense Council v. EPA, No. 08

- 1250.

T he M aintenance P lan accompanying this Request for Redesignation de monstrates
maintenance of the standard s consistent with the C ourt’s ruling.

In general, the C ourt’s decision (for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS and to the extent it would be extrapolated to the 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS) could affect an area’s nonattainment classification, certain deadlines, and the impacts of failing to attain timely, and could impose a deadline for implementation of reasonably available and best available control

measures ( 706 F.3d at 436, n. 6 )

. Because the Lancaster Area is already attaining the

1997 and 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS, those considerations are not relevant for this Request for Redesignation and the M aintenance P lan. The court noted that PM 2.5 precursors, including ammonia and VOCs, are presum ptively regulate d in PM 2.5 nonattainment areas

4 “Withdrawal of Implementation Guidance for the 2006 24

- Hour Fine Particle ( PM 2.5 ) National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS),” Stephen D. Page, EPA, June 6, 2013.- 21

-

under Subpart 4, pointing specifically to Section 189(e), which applies to control of major stationary sources of PM 10 [the court stated that PM 10 includes PM 2.5 throughout Subpart 4] ( 706 F.3d at 436, n. 7, a nd at 437, n. 10 )

. According to Section 189(e) of the CAA, control requirements applicable for major stationary sources of PM 10 also apply to major stationary sources of PM 10 precursors, except where the Administrator determines that major stationary sour ces do not contribute significantly to PM 10 levels that exceed the standard in the area; Section 189(e) also requires EPA to issue guidelines regarding the application of Subsection (e). Pennsylvania assessed emissions of PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC and NH 3 for the maintenance demonstration.

T his Request for Redesignation provides emissions information for all pollutants ( PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC and NH 3 )

, as required by EPA’s guidance entitled, “Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone an d Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations

. ” 5 Section III

first describes the PM 2.5 and PM 2.5 precursor emission estimates for the Lancaster A rea. These inventories have been developed in accordance with EPA emission inventory preparation guidance. The section then presents information about the permanent and enforceable control measures that have been implemented in the Lancaster A rea to produce the PM 2.5 and PM 2.5 precursor emission reductions that have occurred between these years and that will provide emission reductions ensuring maintenance of the PM 2.5 standard s

.

A. Baseline (2002) Emissions Inventory

An emissions inventory for the baseline year, 2002, was developed for PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC and NH 3 in accordance with EPA guidance. Th e baseline

year inventory represents the emissions present when the Lancaster A rea did not

meet the PM 2. 5 standard s

. The inventory contains information for these sectors:

● “Stationary sources” (or “point” sources), which are sources for which the Department collects individual emissions

- related information. Generally, they represent major stationary sources but may be smaller.

● “Area sources,” which are industrial, commercial, and residential sources

too small or too numerous to be handled individually. These include but are not limited to commercial and residential open burning, architectural and industrial maintenance coatings application and clean

- up, consumer product use, and vehicle refueling at ser vice stations. Where there is overlap between stationary point sources and stationary area sources, the area source values are adjusted to remove any double counting.

● “Highway vehicles,” which include passenger cars and light

- duty trucks, other trucks, buses and motorcycles.

5 Emissions Inventory Guidance for Imp lementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations

– EPA

- 454/R

- 05

- 001, August, 2005, updated November, 2005.- 22

- ● “Nonroad sources,” which encompass a diverse collection of engines, including but not limited to outdoor power equipment, recreational vehicles, farm and construction machinery, lawn and garden equipment, industrial equipment, r ecreational marine vessels, commercial marine vessels, locomotives, ships, and aircraft.

Pennsylvania and other Northeastern and Mid

- Atlantic states participated in a regional effort to refine the emissions inventory and to compile a regional

emissions in ventory

. The Mid

- Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA) coordinated that regional effort, which allowed states to pool their resources to compile a regional emissions inventory for the purpose of conducting the regional modeling analysis us ed in Pennsylvania’s air quality management planning efforts to attain the 8

- hour ozone NAAQS and the PM 2.5 NAAQS, and to prepare the Regional H aze SIP revision.

Table III

- 1: 2002 Lancaster Area Annual Emissions (Tons per Year)

A summary of the 2002 inventory is shown in Table III

- 1. The 2002 inventory is not directly comparable to the 2007, 2017 and 2025 inventories because of changes in inventory methodology and the adjustment made to account for condensable PM emissions from EGUs in the 2007, 2017 and 2025 emission

inventories. The Technical Appendices to the M aintenance P lan contain more

detailed information about the 2002 emissions for each sector.

B. Attainment Year (2007) Emissions Inventory

A 2007 inventory of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC and NH 3 emissions for the

Lancaster A rea is used to identify emissions during the period when attainment of

the PM 2.5 NAAQS was demonstrated for the Lancaster A rea. A summary of the 2007 inventory is provided in Table III

- 2.- 23

- Table III

- 2 : 2007 Lancaster Area Annual Emissions (Tons per Year)

PM 2.5 ,SO 2 , NO X , VOC, and NH 3 emissions decreased by 23 percent

, 13 percent

, 18 percent

, 21 percent and 3 percent , respectively, from 2002 to 2007. The permanent and enforceable reductions of direct PM 2.5 , SO 2

, NO X and VOC

emissions between 2002 and 2007 , as described in more detail in Section III, led to the improvement in air quality observed in that time period.

T he 2002 inventory was based on emissions reported to the Department by

facilities and did not inc lude condensable PM for many facilities. The 2007 EGU inventory was a ugmented utilizing the updated condensable emission factors for EGUs developed for MARAMA in 2008 to calculate condensable PM emissions

where that data was mi ssing

.

The Maintenance Plan describes how the 2007 inventory was compiled. The Technical Appendices to the Maintenance Plan contain more detailed information

for each sector.

C. Control Measures

Along with the analysis of ambient air quality and c ontributing f actors in

Section I of th is Request for Redesignation , this section describes the permanent
and enforceable federal and state measures that provided PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X and VOC emission reductions from 2002 to 2007 to bring the Lancaster Area into

attainment and measures that will assure maintenance of the standard s

.

While EPA adopted in its Implementation Guidance for the 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS the presumptions related to PM 2.5 precursors in its I mplementation R ule

for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS

, the Department recognizes the Court decision in Natural Resources Defense Council v. EPA , No. 08

- 1250, 706 F.3d 428 ( D.C.

Cir. 2013) and EPA’s subsequent withdrawal of the Implementation Guidance for

the 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS

.

In general, the C ourt’s decision (for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS and to the extent it would be extrapolated to the 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS) could affect an area’s nonattainment classification, certain deadlines, and the impacts of failing to attain timely, and could impose a deadline for implementation of reasonably available

and best available control measures ( 706 F.3d at 436, n. 6 )

. Since the Lancaster Area is already attaining the 1997 and 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS, however,- 24

- those considerations are not relevant for this Redesignation Request or the accompanying M aintenance P lan.

The C ourt noted that PM 2.5 precursors are presumptively regulated in PM 2.5 nonattainment areas under Subpart 4 , pointing spec ifically to S ection 189(e), which applies to control of major station ary sources of PM 10 [the court stated that

PM 10 includes PM 2.5 throughout Subpart 4]

. ( 706 F.3d at 436, n. 7, and at
437, n. 10 )

. According to CAA Section 189(e), control requirements applicable for major stationary sources of PM 10 also apply to major stationary sources of

PM 10 precursors , except where the Administrator determines that major stationary sources do not contribute significantly to PM 10 levels that exceed the standard in the area; Section 189(e) also requires EPA to iss ue guidelines regarding the application of Subsection (e) . Pennsylvania assessed emissions of PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC and NH 3 for the maintenance demonstration.

Emissions of PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X , VOC and NH 3 in the Lancaster Area decrease d by

23 percent , 13 percent , 18 percent , 21 percent and 3 percent

, respectively, from

2002 to 200 7. The permanent and enforceable reductions of direct PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X and VOC emissions, as described in more detail in Section III, led to the improvement in air quality observed in that time period. As noted above, the

decrease in PM 2.5 emissions is a conservative estimate because the 2007 inventory was augmented to account for condensable PM. A summary of the quantity of

emiss ion reductions from 2002 to 2007 is included in Table III

- 3

. (Negative values indicate emission reductions.)

Table III

- 3: Change in Lancaster Area Annual Emissions (Tons per Year)

from 2002 to 2007

Change from 2002 to 2007 PM 2.5 SO 2 NOx VOC NH3 Stationary Point Sources

- 127

- 395

- 221

- 497

- 4

Area Sources

- 922 295 87

- 3,212

- 444 Highway Vehicle Sources

- 60

- 260

- 3,572

- 953

- 15

Nonroad Sources

- 32

- 147

- 828

- 382 0

TOTAL

- 1,140

- 508

- 4,534

- 5,044

- 462

This section also describes the federal and state measures that will provide direct

PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X and VOC emission reductions

, ensuring maintenance of the

standard s

.

A summary of the total emission s in 2007 and projected estimates for 2017 and

2025 is included in Table III

- 4

. The emission estimates account for any anticipated growth in the activity of sources and include a transportation conformity safety margin for PM 2.5 and NO X . For all pollutants

, except NH 3 , emissions in 2017 and 2025 in the Lancaster A rea are anti cipated to be lower than they were in 2007

. This means that the projected growth in emissions is smaller than anticipated emission reductions from control measures for all pollutant s
,- 25

- except NH 3 , in the nonattainment area

. The projected increase in NH 3 e missions does not present a concern for maintaining the NAAQS because emissions of all other pollutants are projected to decline

. In addition, the Lancaster Area currently has an annual design value based on 2010

- 2012 monitoring data of 12.1 μg/m 3

, which is significantly lower than the 1997 NAAQS of 15 μg/m 3

. Based on

2010

- 2012 monitoring data

, t he Lancaster Area also has a 24

- hour design value of

31 μg/m 3 which is significantly lower than the 2006 PM NAAQS of 35 μg/m 3

. Each measure is explained in great er detail in the following sections.

Table III

- 4 : Summary of Emission Totals (Tons) in 2007 , 2017 and 2025

Lancaster PM 2.5 SO 2 NOx VOC NH 3 2007 3,715 3,382 20,041 19,522 15,769

2017* 3,348 2,605 11,710 15,157 17,314

2025* 3,200 1,930 8,847 13,580 18,531
*A portion of the difference between attainment year and maintenance year emissions of PM 2.5 and NO X has been set aside as a transportation conformity safety margin to accommodate unanticipated growth in highway vehicles. The emissions in Table II I

- 4 reflect inclusion of that safety margin.

1. Stationary Point Sources

Background for Pennsylvania’s Stationary Source Permitting Programs. An owner or operator of a proposed new air contamination

sources in the Commonwealth is required to receive a plan approval (pre

construction permit) from the Department prior to the construction, assembly, installation of new sources, modification of any existing stationary air contamination sources, or the installation of air pollution

con trol equipment or devices. Following the construction of the new facility or air contamination source, the owner or operator must obtain an operating permit from the Department. The type of operating permit will depend on the quantity of regulated pollut ants emitted from the air

contamination sources. DEP will issue a “State

- only Operating Permit” for minor air contamination stationary sources that are below the applicability thresholds for Title V facilities. A Title V operating permit is required for major facilities that have the potential to emit air contaminants exceeding the Title V thresholds. The Title V Permit, which

is issued for a term of five years, incorporates all applicable requirements for the facility in a single federally enforceable o perating permit.

The requirements contained in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 127 (relating to the construction, modification, reactivation and operation of sources), and

associated definitions in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 121.1, are a suite of programs regulating air c ontamination sources to improve and maintain air quality. Chapter 127 establishes requirements for the submission, review and approval of pre

- construction and operating permits for both major and

non

- major air contamination sources. The provisions of Cha pter 127 have

been codified in the SIP at 40 CFR §52.2020(c)(1) at various times since- 26

- May 31, 1972 and most recently on October 5, 2012, and are therefore all federally enforceable. Several aspects of Chapter 127 are highlighted

below.

Title V Permittin g Program. The Title V Permitting Program, adopted pursuant to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, is applicable to major stationary sources as defined in 25 Pa Code Section 121.1. The purpose

of the Title V program is to detail a facility’s air qualit y requirements in a single permit document so that industry, the regulatory agency, and the public know exactly what regulations and requirements apply and how the facility’s owner or operator will monitor and demonstrate compliance with all applicable req uirements. The Title V permit includes all sources at a site including all air pollution control devices as well as activities that were determined to be insignificant sources of emissions. Each source is

described in detail within a section of the Title V permit. The requirements include general conditions applicable to all Title V facilities, emission restrictions, detailed monitoring, recordkeeping, and reporting requirements to assure compliance with the facility’s applicable federal and state requir ements.

Nonattainment New Source Review and Prevention of Significant

Deterioration. Major facilities proposed in Pennsylvania will also be subject to New Source Review (NSR) requirements in nonattainment areas and Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) requirements in areas of the Commonwealth designated attainment for National Ambient Air Quality Standards including carbon monoxide, particulate matter (PM), lead, nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ). Generally, NSR permit requi rements are applicable to a facility located in a nonattainment area for a particular pollutant with a potential to emit

50 tons or more per year (tpy) of volatile organic compounds or 100 tpy or more of NOx, SO 2 , PM or carbon monoxide. It should be note d that the entire Commonwealth, included in the Ozone Transport Region by operation of law, is treated as a “moderate” ozone nonattainment area, irrespective of the area’s attainment status. Because NOx and VOC are precursors of PM 2.5 , NOx and VOC emissio n reductions required statewide under the nonattainment NSR program for ozone also allow Pennsylvania to make substantial progress in attaining and maintaining the

PM 2.5 NAAQS. Any major stationary source or major modification subject to the NSR requirements must receive a plan approval. To receive approval from the Department, a person must show that the proposed source will, among other things, offset its potential to emit air contaminants including NOx, PM and VOCs by securing emission reductions credits at the specified offset ratio, will employ the “lowest achievable emission rate” (LAER) for each regulated pollutant and conduct an alternative analysis. The nonatta inment NSR requirements are- 27

- codified in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 127, Subchapter E and approved as a SIP

revision on December 9, 1997 (62 FR 64722).

The PSD program is a pre

- construction review and permitting program applicable to new or modified major station ary sources subject to Title I,

Parts C and D of the federal CAA. The PSD requirements are applicable to major sources in areas attaining the NAAQS. The federal PSD regulations codified in 40 CFR Part 52 are incorporated by reference in their entirety in 25 Pa. Code §127.83 (relating to adoption by reference). The Department’s PSD regulations, codified in 25 Pa

. Code Chapter 127, Subchapter D, were approved by the EPA on August 21, 1984 and

codified at 40 CFR §52.2058 (49 FR 33128).). PSD permit require ments may apply to a facility located in an attainment area for a standard with the potential to emi t 100 tpy or 250 tpy of the six criteria pollutants including

carbon monoxide , lead, nitrogen dioxide , ozone, particulate matter and

sulfur dioxide depending on the source category. Any major stationary source or major modification subject to the P SD requirements must conduct an analysis to establish the best available control technology (BACT). In addition, the owner or operator of a facility needs to conduct an ambient air quality analysis, analyze the impacts to soils, vegetation and visibility and make sure that the project will not adversely impact mandatory federal Class I areas including national parks greater than

6

, 000 acres and national wilderness areas and national memorial parks greater than 5

, 000 acres.

Best Available Technology Prog ram. The Department’s Best Available Technology (BAT) Program ensures that new stationary sources will prevent, reduce or control emissions of air contaminants to the maximum degree possible. The Department determines BAT requirements on a

case

- by

- case b asis for both major and minor stationary sources taking into account energy, environmental benefits and costs. Pursuant to 25 Pa.

Code §127.1, the emission of air pollutants from new sources in Pennsylvania must be controlled to the maximum extent, consis tent with the best available technology as determined by the Department as of the date of issuance of the plan approval for the new source. Under 25 Pa.

Code §127.12(a)(5), an application for a plan approval must show that the emissions from a new source will be the minimum attainable through the use of the best available technology. Pennsylvania regulations define “best available technology” in 25 Pa. Code § 121.1 as, “Equipment, devices, methods or techniques as determined by the Department which will prevent, reduce or control emissions of air contaminants to the maximum degree possible and which are available or may be made available.” The Department’s BAT regulations, codified in 25 Pa. Code §§127.1 and 127.12(a)(5), were approved by EPA on July 30, 1996, and

codified in the SIP at 40 CFR §52.2020(c)(1).- 28

- NOx and SO 2 Control Programs. In 1998, EPA promulgated the NO X SIP Call as the EPA’s principal effort to reduce interstate transport of air pollution (63 FR 57356; October 27, 1998). In response to the federal

NO X SIP call rule, Pennsylvania adopted the NO X Budget Trading Program regulations for EGUs and large industrial boilers , with emission

reductions to commence May 1, 2003. The regulations were approved by EPA as a revision to the Commonwealth’s SIP on August 21, 2001 (66 FR 43795). Additionally, in response to the NO X SIP Call, Pennsylvania adopted additional NO X control regulations covering cemen t plants and internal combustion engines, with emission reductions to commence May 1, 2005. These regulations were approved by EPA as a SIP revision on September 29, 2006 ( 71 FR 57428).

Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). In 2005, EPA adopted CAIR (70 FR 25162; May 12, 2005, as amended) to address interstate transport

of NO X and SO 2 . CAIR is now being implemented in Pennsylvania through the Department’s CAIR regulation, codified in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 145, Subchapter D, with related amendments in Chapters 121,

129 and 145. EPA approved Pennsylvania’s CAIR SIP revision on

December 10, 2009, codified at 40 CFR §52.2020(c)(1) (74 FR 65446). In the CAIR SIP revision, Pennsylvania terminated the NO X Budget Trading Program and transitioned to the feder al CAIR for large electric generating units (EGU).

The market

- based CAIR is designed to reduce EGU emissions of NO X and

SO 2 below 2002 levels throughout the eastern United States. Pennsylvania and the other CAIR states were required to adopt a regulation implementing the requirements of the CAIR or an equivalent program. The large EGUs in Pennsylvania were initially regulated under CAIR FIPs promulgated by EPA, but have been regulated under the SIP since EPA approved Pennsylvania’s CAIR SIP revision. Un der the SIP revision, Pennsylvania participates in the EPA

- administered cap

- and

- trade programs for NO X annual, NO X ozone season, and SO 2 annual emissions.

EPA’s CAIR was remanded to EPA for revisions by the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia on December 23, 2008 (See,

North Carolina v. EPA , 531 F.3d 896, modified, 550 F.3d 1176 (D.C. Cir. 2008)). Following remand, EPA replaced CAIR with the Cross

- State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), but in a separate legal challenge the court

vacated CSAPR. In that ruling, the court ordered EPA to continue administering CAIR pending the promulgation of a valid replacement (see, EME Homer City Generation L.P. v. EPA , 696 F.3d 7 (D.C. Cir. 2012, rehearing denied, 2013 U.S. App. LEXIS 1623 and 1624 (D.C . Cir.

Jan. 24, 2013)). On June 24, 2013, the Supreme Court of the United States accepted review of the case. Following the Circuit Court’s direction, CAIR remains in place pending the Supreme Court’s review.- 29

- NO X Budget Trading Program limits on non

- EGU s. The CAIR SIP

revision also established emission limits for the non

- EGUs and other units that were subject to the Commonwealth’s NO X Budget Trading Program but are not subject to the CAIR NO X Ozone Season Trading Program.

T hese units must continue moni toring NO X emissions and must meet an emissions cap. Each unit has an allowable emission rate, calculated by January 31 of each year, based on the previous ozone season’s heat input.

If the combined NO X ozone season emissions from all of these units

exce ed the statewide ozone season emission cap of 3,438 tons, each unit

that exceeds its individual allowable emissions limit for that ozone season must surrender to the Department one CAIR NO X ozone season allowance

and one CAIR NO X annual allowance for each ton of emissions over its allowable emission limit. In addition, the Commonwealth has set aside

181 tons of NO X , including tons that will be retired each year to compensate for sources that were exempted under the “twenty

- five t on exemption” in 25 Pa. Code §145.4(b) 3. The balance of tons remaining in the set aside is available to the Department annually for accounting corrections. The Commonwealth retires any unused amount from this set aside each year.

It is unlikely that the 3,438

- ton statewide NO X ozone season emission limitation will be exceeded. Pennsylvania’s non

- EGU sources’ total emissions during each of the years they were trading under the NO X Budget Trading Program never exceeded the statewide cap of 3,438 tons.

The Department’s regulation, codified in 25 Pa. Code §145.8(d), was approved by EPA on December 10, 2009, and codified in the SIP at

40 CFR §52.2020(c)(1).

Cement kilns and large stationary internal combustion engines. The

CAIR SIP revision also include d regulations updating the cement manufacturing and large stationary internal combustion engine regulations that were adopted pursuant to the NO X SIP Call. Until 2009, cement kilns and large stationary internal combustion engines that were subject to the

NO X SIP Call were required to surrender NO X SIP Call allowances if they

exceeded their NO X emission limits set forth in Department regulations. Because the Department discontinued the NO X Budget Trading Program beginning 2009, at which point NO X SIP Call allowances were replaced by CAIR NO X ozone season allowances, the Department modified the regulations to require surrender of CAIR NO X ozone season and CAIR

NO X annual allowances for emission limit exceedances.

The Department’s regulations for large stati onary internal combustion engines and cement kilns, codified in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 145, Subchapters B and C, respectively, were approved by EPA on- 30

- December 10, 2009, and codified at 40 CFR §51.2020(c)(1). An amendment to the Department’s regulation for c ement kilns to reduce

NO X emissions effective April 15, 2011, codified in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 145, Subchapter C, was approved by EPA on July 19, 2011 and

codified at 40 CFR §51.2020(c)(1).

Federal Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants. Federal standards to control hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) require Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) at units located at major sources of HAPs. The EPA has promulgated a series of MACT regulations that are applicable to sources in Pennsylvania. These MACT st andards are adopted and incorporated by reference in Section 6.6 of Pennsylvania’s Air Pollution Control Act and implementing regulations in 25 Pa. Code §127.35 (relating to maximum achievable control technology standards for hazardous air pollutants). The standards also included in federally enforceable plan approvals and operating permits issued by the Department for affected sources.

2. Highway Vehicle Sources

Even with increases in vehicle miles travelled ( VMT ) t hat occurred between 2002 and 2007, and are anticipated to occur from 2007 through

2025 , highway vehicle emissions will continue to decrease . As more vehicles subject to cleaner new car standards replace older vehicles subject to less stringent new vehicle standards, the fleet as a whole em its fewer emissions, compensating for the increase in VMT . These decreases can be

attributed t o the programs described below.

Federal Motor Vehicle Control Programs (FMVCP) and Pennsylvania Clean Vehicle Program for passenger vehicles and light

duty truc ks and cleaner gasoline. Tier 1 tailpipe standards established by the CAA Amendments of 1990 include NO X and VOC limits for light

duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) and light

- duty gasoline trucks (LDGTs)

. These standards began to be phased in 1994. Evaporative VOC emissions were reduced in gasoline

- powered cars starting with Model Year (MY)

1998.

In 1998, under the authority of Section 177 of the CAA, the Pennsylvania Environmental Quality Board (EQB) adopted the Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program (28 Pa. B. 5873 ; Dec. 5, 1998). The Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program incorporates by reference certain California Low Emission Vehicle (CA LEV) emission standards for passenger cars and light

- duty trucks. As required under Section 177 of the CAA, these provisions are identical to the low emission standards adopted by California. The regulation does not incorporate by reference the- 31

- California zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) or emissions control warranty systems statement provisions.

In the same rulemaking, the EQB adopted the National Low Emission Vehicle (NLEV) program as a compliance alternative to the Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program. The NLEV program became effective in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR) in 1999. Pennsylvania’s New Motor Vehicle Emissions Control Program regulations in 25 Pa. Code §§ 126.401

- 126.441 allowed automobile manufacturers to comply with NLEV instead of the CA LEV program through MY 2005. These regulations affected vehicles 6,000 pounds and less and were the regulations in effect for new motor vehicl es in the baseline year, 2002.

In 1999, the EPA promulgated regulations more stringent than NLEV (Tier 2), starting with MY 2004. T he NLEV program was replaced for

MY 2004 and later by the more stringent Federal “Tier 2” vehicle emissions regulations ( 65 FR 6698 ; Feb. 10, 2000), and vehicle manufacturers operating under the NLEV program became subje ct to the

Tier 2 requirements.

Pennsylvania amended the former New Motor Vehicle Control Prog ram in 2006. The Clean Vehicles Program continues to incorporate the California Low Emission Vehicle Program (CA LEV II) by reference. As amended, the program affects MY 2008 and newer passenger cars and light

- duty trucks vehicles ( 36 Pa.B

. 7424 ; Dec. 9, 2006, corrected

37 Pa. B. 209 ; Jan. 12, 2007, eff. Dec. 9, 2006). EPA approved Pennsylvania’s Clean Vehicle Program as a revis ion to the

Commonwealth’s SIP o n January 24, 2012 ( 77 FR 3386).

Heavy

- Duty Diesel Control Programs. The EPA promulgated more stringent national regulations for heavy

- duty engines and vehicles (over
14,000 pounds) starting with MY 2004. In addition, consent decrees with seven of the largest heavy

- duty engine manufacturers required, among other terms, that diesel engines made by these companies comply with these 2004 standards two model years early, in MY 2002. The emission

reducti ons from these programs are reflected in the future year emission inventories, as provided in the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator ( MOVES ) model.

In 2002, the EQB adopted the Heavy

- Duty Diesel Emissions Control Program for model years starting after May 2 004. The program incorporates California standards by reference and requires MY 2005 and subsequent new heavy

- duty diesel highway engines to be those certified by California. California standards were more stringent than federal

standards for the two mod el years between expiration of the consent

decrees discussed above (MYs 2005 and 2006) and the implementation of- 32

- more stringent federal standards affecting MY 2007 and beyond. However, EPA’s MOVES model already assumed that the engines would comply with c onsent decree standards, even without an enforcement mechanism. The Department has used MOVES defaults to calculate

emissions from MY 2005 and 2006 highway engines.

The EPA adopted new emission standards for heavy

- duty engines and

vehicles for MY 2007 an d subsequent. For diesel engines, the standards

were phased in from 2007 to 2010 for NO X and VOCs. For gasoline engines, the standards w ere phased in during MY 2008 and 2009. Federal and California standards are virtually identical for MY 2007. For

MY 2008, California adopted requirements for idling restriction engine programming and an optional “clean NO X idle” standard. However, there

is no EPA

- approved methodology to estimate emission reductions from this requirement. Therefore, the emission estima tes use assumptions of

the federal rule for MY 2007 through 2010.

Because the new engine standards are adversely affected by sulfu r in fuel, the EPA also required most highway diesel fuel to contain no more than

15 parts per million (ppm) of sulfur, begin ni ng in the fall of 2006. There

wa s a temporary compliance option allowing refiners to continue to produce up to 20 percent of their highway diesel fuel at 500 ppm fuel until 2010. The Department u sed MOVES defaults to estimate the effects of the phase

- i n provision.

Vehicle Emission Inspection/Maintenance Program. I n early 2004, Pennsylvania expanded its Vehicle Emission Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) Program into the Lancaster Area. The program applies to gasoline

powered vehicles 9,000 pounds and under, model years 1975 and newer. For vehicles 1996 and newer, the program consists of an annual on

- board diagnostics test and a gas cap pressure test. For subject vehicles 1995 and older, the program consists of an annual visual inspection of poll ution control devices to ensure they are present, connected and the proper type for the vehicle and a gas cap pressure test. These regulations can be found

in 67 Pa. Code Chapter 177. The Department submitted the expanded emissions program to EPA as a SI P revision on December 1, 2003. EPA approved the SIP revision on October 6, 2005 (70 FR 58313).

Low sulfur gasoline. Sulfur is a natural ly occurring component of crude oil that ends up in gasoline and diesel unless removed. Sulfur in gasoline impairs the effectiveness of emission control systems and contributes to air pollution. By removing most sulfur from gasoline, new advanced emission controls will work longer and more efficiently, and air pollution

will be reduc ed.- 33

- The 1999 federal Tier 2 regulations (65 FR 6698 ; Feb. 1 0, 2000) reduce d the sulfur content of gasoline by up to 90 percent , enabling the use of new emission control technologies in cars and trucks that reduce harmful air pollution. The emission inventory ana lysis in the Maintenance Plan submitted concurrently with this Request for Redesignation uses the default assumptions provided in MOVES2010 to account for the implementation of the federal standards for low sulfur gasoline. Requirements for use of low

- sul fur gasoline enabled use of advanced emission control systems in light

- duty vehicles beginning in MY 2004. Vehicles meeting Tier 2 emission standards are 77 to 95 percent cleaner

than earlier models.

EPA signed a regulation adopting more stringent vehicle standards and reducing sulfur limits in gasoline further with the Tier 3 Motor Vehicle

Emission and Fuel Standards program on March 3, 2014. The rule takes effect in 2017. The Tier 3 program requires the annual average content of sulfur in gasoline to be reduced to 10 parts per million, starting January 1, 2017. By 2018, EPA estimates that SO 2 emissions from gasoline vehicles will be reduced by 56 percent. When fully implemented, this program, by
2030, will increase the effectiveness of vehicle emission controls even

further and reduce onroad emissions of NOx by 25 percent, direct particulate matter by 10 percent and VOCs by 16 percent. The rule will also significantly reduce emissions of carbon monoxid e and hazardous air pollutants including acrolein, benzene, formaldehyde and acetaldehyde.

3. Nonroad Sources

The EPA has adopted a series of regulations affecting new diesel

- powered (“compression ignition”) and gasoline

- powered (“spark ignition”) nonroad engines of various sizes (horsepower) and applications. Information on these federal rules, including their implementation dates, can be found at www.epa.gov/nonroad

. The Department used the assumptions built into the nonroad model (NONROAD2005) and NMIM to estimate emissions for all milestone years.

While the EPA has published a notice of proposed rulemaking for more stringent standards for locomotives and large commercial marine diesel engines, the agency has not finalized any new standards.

On June 29, 2004, EPA adopted a rule establishing a comprehensive national program to reduce emissions from nonroad diesel engines (69 FR 38958). The rule phased in requirements for reducing the sulfur

content of diesel used in nonroad diesel engines. The reduction in fuel

sulfur content prevent s damage to the more advanced emission control systems needed to meet the engine standards; it will also reduce fine particulate emissions from diesel engines. In 2007, fuel sulfur levels were- 34

- limited to 500 ppm for nonroad applications other than ocean

- going marine vessels. In 2010, fuel sulfur levels were reduced to the same sulfur concentration as in highway fue l, 15 ppm ; this requirement began applying in 2012 to lo comotive and marine diesel fuel. EPA adopted technical amendments to the program in rules published in the Federal Register on November 22, 2005 (70 FR 70498)

, and May 1, 2006 (71 FR 25706). On April 30, 2010 (75 FR 22896), EPA adopted changes

to the nonroad diesel fuel program to allow for the production and sale of diesel fuel with up to 1

, 000 ppm sulfur for use in Category 3 marine vessels. This requirement does not impact the Lancaster Area because the

Lancaster Area does not have emissions from c ommercial marine vessels.

4. Stationary Area Sources

Consumer Products. This regulation applies statewide to any person who sells, supplies, offers for sale, or manufactures certain consumer products on or after January 1, 2005, for use in the Commonwea lth. The program is contained in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 130, Subchapter B. It was

submitted to the EPA as a SIP revision on March 26, 2003

, and approved

on December 8, 2004 (69 FR 70895). Amendments to the Consumer

Products regulations were adopted on October 11, 2008, submitted to the

EPA as a SIP revision on March 11, 2009

, and approved on October 18, 2010 (75 FR 63717).

Adhesives, Sealants, Primers and Solvents. The EQB adopted a regulation in 2010 to control VOC emissions from adh esives, sealants, primers and solvents. This regulation was published in the Pennsylvania

Bulletin on December 25, 2010 (40 Pa. B. 7340) and approved by EPA as a SIP revision on September 26, 2012 (77 FR 59090).

I V

. MAINTENANCE PLAN

The Maintenance Plan for the Lancaster Area is being submitted to EPA for approval as a SIP revision concurrently with this R equest for R edesignation. The Maintenance Plan

shows that the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS will be maintained for at least 10 years after redesignation. Eight years following redesignation, the Commonwealth will submit a revised plan that e nsures attainment through 2035.

T he Maintenance Plan shows that emission levels of PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X and VOC over the

10 years following redesignation will remain below the emissions level in 2007, while allowing for growth in population and vehicle miles traveled. The projected increase in

NH 3 emissions does not present a concern for maintaining the NAAQS because PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO X and VOC emissions are all projected to continue to decline in the Lancaster

Area

. B ased on 2010

- 2012 monitoring data

, the Lancaster Area currently has an annual design value of 12.1 μg/m 3 , which is significantly lower than the 1997 NAAQS of

15 μg/m 3

. In addition, based on 2010

- 2012 monitoring data , t he Lancaster Area has a- 35

-

24

- hour design value of 31 μg/m 3 which is significantly lower than the 2006 NAAQS of

35 μg/m 3

. The following state and federal programs will ensure the continuing decline of

SO 2 , NO X , direct PM 2.5 and VO C emissions:

● C lean A ir I nterstate R ule ;

● Emission limits for large industrial boilers;

● State regulation of cement kilns, large stationary internal combustion engines , and

smaller sources of NO X ;

● State regulations incorporating by reference the federal Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) regulations;

● State requirements for Best Available Technology ( BAT ) ;

● State regulation of the sulfur content of fuel oil;

● State regulation of V OC emissions from adhesives, sealants, primers and solvents;

● The Pennsylvania and federal new motor vehicle emission control programs for

p assenger and light

- duty trucks;

● The Pennsylvania and federal heavy

- duty di esel emission control programs;

● Fe deral fuel programs for highway vehicles an d nonroad mobile equipment; and

● Federal regulation of off

- road diesel and gasoline

- powered vehicles and equipment.

Emission reductions from Pennsylvania’s Diesel

- Powered Motor Vehicle Idling Act

, Act 124 of 2008 (Idling Act) were not included in the 2017 and 2025 emission inventories, and, thus, were not relied upon for the demonstration of maintenance. The Idling Act was approved by EPA as a SIP revision on August 1, 2011 (76 FR 45705). Similarly, NO X and VOC emission reductions from Pennsylvania’s Outdoor Wood

- Fired Boilers regulation were not included in the 2017 and 2025 emission inventories, and were not relied upon for the demonstration of maintenance. The Outdoor Wood

- Fired Boiler regulation was published in the Pennsylvania Bull etin on October 2, 2010 (40 Pa. B. 5571) and approved by EPA as a SIP revision on September 20, 2011 (76 FR 58114). However, emission reductions from these measures may nonetheless

assist the Lancaster Area in maintaining air quality.

DEP has provided in the Maintenance Plan for the PM 2.5 NAAQS assurances that it will continue to operate the ambient air quality monitoring network in order to track maintenance of the standard and to evaluate emissions inventories periodically compared to the projections provided in the plan. DEP has also provided in the Maintenance Plan a- 36

-

list of contingency measures that it would consider to correct any violation of the 1997

PM 2.5 NAAQS that might occur af ter redesignation of the area.- 37

-

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVI ATIONS

AEO Annual Energy Outlook AQS EPA’s Air Quality System AQTAC DEP’s Air Quality Technical Advisory Committee

BACT Best Available Control Technology

BAT Best Available Technology

CAA Clean Air Act

CAIR Clean Air Interstate Rule

CA LEV California Low Emission Vehicle (program)

CAMx Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extension

CFR Code of Federal Regulations

CMV Commercial Marine Vessel

DEP Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

DOT U.S. Department of Transportation

EGU Electric Generating Unit

EIA Energy Information Administration

EIS Emission Inventory System

EPA U

. S

. Environmental Protection Agency EQB Environmental Quality Board

ERC Emission Reduction Credit

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FIP Federal Implementation Plan

FMVCP Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program

FR Federal Regi ster

FRM Federal Reference Method

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GHCN Global Historical Climatology Network

HAP Hazardous Air Pollutant

I/M Inspection and Maintenance

IRRC Independent Regulatory Review Commission

LDGV Light Duty Gasoline V ehicles

LDGT Light Duty Gasoline T rucks

LRP Long Range Plan

MACT Maximum Achievable Control Technology

MARAMA Mid

- Atlantic Regional Air Management Association

MM5 Mesoscale Model

MOVES Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator

MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization

MY Model Year NAAQ S National Ambient Air Quality Standard

NAICS North American Industry Classification System

NEI National Emissions Inventory

NH 3 Ammonia

NLEV National Low Emission Vehicle (program)

NMIM National Mobile Inventory Model- 38

-

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NONROAD Nonroad Model

NO X Oxides of Nitrogen

NSR New Source Review

OTC Ozone Transport Commission

OTR Ozone Transport Region

OWB Outdoor Wood

- fired Boiler

PennDOT Pennsylvania Department of Transportation

PM Particulate Matter

PM 2.5 Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter or Fine P articulates

PM 10 Particulate Matter less than 10 microns in diameter

ppm parts per million

PSD Prevention of Significant Deterioration

RWC Residential Wood Combustion

SCC Source Classification Code

SIP State Implementation Plan

SO 2 Sulfur Dioxide

TAF Terminal Area Forecast

TCM Transportation Control Measures

TIP Transportation Improvement Program

TSD Technical Support Document

μ g/m 3 M icrogram per cubic meter

μm Micrometer

VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled

VOC Volatile Organic Compound

ZEV Zero Emissions Vehicle