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# Proceedings of the International Workshop on Uncertainty,Sensitivity,and Parameter Estimation for Multimedia Environmental Modeling:Held August 19–21, 2003 at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Headquarters (NUREG/CP-0187, ERDC SR-04-2, EPA/600/R-04/117)

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## Publication Information

**Date Published:**October 2004

**Workshop Sponsored by:** Federal Working Group on Uncertainty and Parameter Estimation Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Models (ISCMEM)

**Proceedings Edited by:** Thomas J. Nicholson (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission) Justin E. Babendreir (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) Philip D. Meyer (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Sitakanta Mohanty (Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses) Bruce B. Hicks (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) George H. Leavesley (U.S. Geological Survey)

**Proceedings Prepared by:** Thomas J. Nicholson Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research  U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, DC 20555-0001

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## Abstract

An *International Workshop on Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Parameter Estimation for Multimedia Environmental Modeling* was held August 19-21, 2003, at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Headquarters in Rockville, Maryland, USA. The workshop was organized and convened by the *Federal Working Group on Uncertainty and Parameter Estimation, and sponsored by the Federal Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Models (ISCMEM)*. The workshop themes were parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty analysis relevant to environmental modeling. The workshop objectives were to facilitate communication among U.S. Federal agencies conducting research on the workshop themes; obtain up-to-date information from invited technical experts; actively discuss the *state-of-the-science* in the workshop themes; and identify opportunities for pursuing new approaches. These objectives were met through the workshop presentations and discussions. The invited presenters focused on methods to identify, evaluate, and compare both existing and newly developed strategies and tools for parameter estimation, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Discussions explored how these strategies and tools could be used to better understand and characterize the sources of uncertainty in environmental modeling, and approaches to quantify them through comparative analysis of model simulations and monitoring. The presentations and discussions also focused on various approaches and applications of these strategies and tools, and specific lessons learned and research needs. In addition, the Memorandum of Understanding working group members and cooperators presented information and guidance for use in developing a common software application programming interface for methods and tools used in parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty analysis."

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