Pre-Analysis Consensus Memorandum

To: Pragati Srivastava, Memphis Metropolitan Planning Organization

From: Kenny Monroe, Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc. Allison Fluitt, Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc.

Date: May 17, 2013

Subject: 2040 Memphis Region Non-Attainment Area MOVES Air Quality Conformity Analysis

The purpose of this memo is to detail the assumptions and procedures that will be used in preparation of the Memphis Region Non-Attainment Area air quality conformity analysis for the 2014-2017 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) and the amended 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP). This memo focuses on the assumptions and me thodology needed to conduct this analysis using the MOVES2010b software . The analysis will be conducted forthe Shelby County, TN and DeSoto County, MS portions of the Memphis, TNMS-AR 2008 8-hour ozone standard non-attainme nt area. Data for this analysis will be obtained from the current regi onal Travel Demand Model as well as Tennessee and Mississippi sources.

Air Quality Analysis Parameters

Several parameters have been identifie d for use in the preparation of this analysis. The parameters listed below will be applied in the base MOVES setup:

 Pollutants to be monitored: CO (Shelby County only), NO

x , and VOC

 Model years: 2004 (model base year), 2010, 2011 (DeSoto County baseline year), 2015 (attainment year), 2017 (Shelby County only), 2020, 2030, and 2040 (reflecting the conformity years established for the 2040 LRTP)

 MOVES modeling technique: Inventory method

 Scale: County

 Time Span:

o Time aggregation: Hour

o January (for CO analysis) or July (for NO

x and VOC analysis)

o All hours of day selected

o Weekdays onlyMay 17, 2013 Page 2

 Geographic Bounds: Two counties – one full county (Shelby County, TN) and one partial county (DeSoto Co unty, MS). Each geographic area will be performed separately.

 Vehicles/Equipment: All source types, gasoline and diesel

 Road Type: All road types including off-network

 Pollutants and Processes: Oxides of Nitrogen (NO

x ), Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC), Non-Methane Hydrocarbons (NMHC), and Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons (THC) – Shelby County and DeSoto County; and Carbon Monoxide (CO) – Shelby County only

 Strategies: none

 General Output: Units = grams, joules and miles

 Output Emissions: Time = hour, Location = county, on-road emission rates by road type and source use type.

 Advanced Performance: none

The following assumptions will be app lied within the County Data Manager portion of the MOVES software package for the Shelby County portion of the non-attainment area. Each parameter is id entified, along with the source data that will be applied (if applicable). Locally-g enerated data will be referenced first,
where available.

 Source Type Population: Some data exists for this input from a study conducted by UT. However, there is not a sufficient level of confidence in this data to use it. As a result, default data will be used as a starting point for all source types. The MOVES Technical Guidance provides guidance on how to adjust default data with local VMT data, a methodology that will be referenced for all analysis years.

 Vehicle Type VMT: Based on local data with EPA converters used to get into MOVES format. HPMSVTypeYear VMT = daily VMT from Memphis Travel Demand Model with EPA’s daily to annual VMT converter applied. monthV MTFraction = EPA converter. dayVMTFraction=EPA converter. hourVMTFraction = local data from Memphis Travel Demand Model. Data pulled for AM, Midday, PM, and Off-Peak periods, and EPA converter applied to get 24-hour data.

 I/M Programs: There is currently an I/M program in use within the City of Memphis. In order to reflect changing conditions and remain conservative, only effects from the tailpip e test will be considered in this analysis.

 Fuel Formulation: Default data for Shelby County (obtained from the MOVES program) will be used.

 Fuel Supply: Default data for Shelby County (obtained from the MOVES program) will be used.May 17, 2013 Page 3

 Meteorology Data: Local information obtained from NOAA data at the Memphis International Airport. TDEC provided three-year average data for the month of July, including hourly temperatures and humidity. This analysis will assume the meteorological data at this location can be applied to the entire modeled area.

 Ramp Fraction: Using local data obtained from the Memphis Travel Demand Model. Ramp fractions w ill be obtained for Shelby County.

 Road Type Distribution: Using local data obtained from the Memphis Travel Demand Model. Road type distributions will be obtained for Shelby County.

 Age Distribution: Shelby County data for age distribution was found to not be available. As a result, this analysis will reference Shelby County, TN-specific data obtained from the UTK paper “Tennessee Traffic Data for Estimating Air Pollution Emissions in 2002.” An EPA converter will be used to change MOBILE6-format ted information to MOVES format.

 Average Speed Distribution: Using local data obtained from the Memphis Travel Demand Model. This information will be drawn specifically from Shelby County.

 Alternative Fuel Vehicle Types: MATA has provided information regarding the composition of its bus fleet. Based on this information, there are no CNG buses operating in Sh elby County. As a result, the default AVFT data will be modified to reflect only standard fuel types.

The following assumptions will be app lied within the County Data Manager portion of the MOVES software package for the DeSoto County portion of the non-attainment area. Each parameter is id entified, along with the source data that will be applied (if applicable). Locally-g enerated data will be referenced first,
where available.

 Source Type Population: Local and state information has been
determined to be insufficient to generate source type population information for DeSoto County. As a result, default data will be used as a starting point for all source types. The MOVES Technical Guidance provides guidance on how to adjust default data with local VMT data, a methodology that will be referenced for all analysis years.

 Vehicle Type VMT: Based on local data with EPA converters used to get into MOVES format. HPMSVTypeYear VMT = daily VMT from Memphis Travel Demand Model with EPA’s daily to annual VMT converter applied. monthV MTFraction = EPA converter. dayVMTFraction=EPA converter. hourVMTFraction = local data from Memphis Travel Demand Model. Data pulled for AM, Midday, PM, and Off-Peak periods, and EPA converter applied to get 24-hour data.

 I/M Programs: There is no inspection and maintenance program in DeSoto County; therefore, no data is needed.May 17, 2013 Page 4

 Fuel Formulation: Default data for DeSoto County (obtained from the MOVES program) will be used.

 Fuel Supply: Default data for DeSoto County (obtained from the MOVES program) will be used.

 Meteorology Data: Local information obtained from NOAA data at the Memphis International Airport. TDEC provided three-year average data for the month of July, including hourly temperatures and humidity. This analysis will assume the meteorological data at this location can be applied to the entire modeled area.

 Ramp Fraction: Using local data obtained from the Memphis Travel Demand Model. Ramp fractions w ill be obtained for the portion of DeSoto County being modeled.

 Road Type Distribution: Using local data obtained from the Memphis Travel Demand Model. Road type di stributions will be obtained for the portion of DeSoto County being modeled.

 Age Distribution: Local data obtained for DeSoto County age distribution will be used for vehicle classes 11, 21, and 31. For the remaining vehicle source types, the an alysis will use Shelby County, TNspecific data obtained from the UTK paper “Tennessee Traffic Data for Estimating Air Pollution Emissions in 2002.” An EPA converter will be used to change MOBILE6-formatted information to MOVES format.

 Average Speed Distribution: Using local data obtained from the Memphis Travel Demand Model. This information will be drawn specifically from the portion of DeSoto County being studied here.

 Alternative Fuel Vehicle Types: There are no fixed-route transit buses operating in DeSoto County at this time. The default AVFT data will be modified to reflect only standard fuel types.

Travel Demand Modeling

Assumptions used for the Memphis Region Travel Demand Model are as
follows: 1) Base/Validation Year: 2004 2) Project Listing: Provided as a pa rt of the 2014-2017 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) a nd the amended 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP); includes

a. Regionally Significant and Federally Funded
b. Regionally Significant and Non-Federally Funded

c. Conforms with Federal MAP-21 guidelines, including fiscal
constraint 3) Travel Demand Model is state of the practice and described in a separate
document.May 17, 2013 Page 5

4) Demographic Data: Provided in a separate document 5) Transit Modeling

a. Transit mode split is estimated using trip end mode choice
i. Estimates trips from the person trips developed in trip generation
ii. Determines transit-oriented person trips prior to conversion of region’s person trips to vehicle trips

Analysis and Documentation

As a part of the air quality analysis, emissions will be generated for Shelby County and the DeSoto County non-attainment areas. The MOVES model developed in this analysis will also be run in emission rate mode as a quality
assurance check.

Kimley-Horn will perform this analysis and provide the results to the members of the interagency consultation group. All f iles, including scripts, queries, computer language, look-up tables, etc. will be pr ovided to the interagency consultation group for review and reference. A me thodology memorandum will be prepared in conjunction with this analysis to ex plain the steps taken and assumptions used in conducting this analysis. If it determined that the results of this analysis are appropriate for inclusion within the co nformity process, documentation will be produced for the TIP and LRTP.