Pre-Analysis Consensus Memorandum 

To: Pragati Srivastava, Memphis Metropolitan Planning 

Organization 

From: Kenny Monroe, Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc. 

 Allison Fluitt, Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc. 

Date: May 17, 2013 

Subject: 2040 Memphis Region Non-Attainment Area MOVES Air 

Quality Conformity Analysis 

The purpose of this memo is to detail the assumptions and procedures that will be 

used in preparation of the Memphis Region Non-Attainment Area air quality 

conformity analysis for the 2014-2017 Transportation Improvement Program 

(TIP) and the amended 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP). This 

memo focuses on the assumptions and methodology needed to conduct this 

analysis using the MOVES2010b software. The analysis will be conducted for 

the Shelby County, TN and DeSoto County, MS portions of the Memphis, TNMS-AR 2008 8-hour ozone standard non-attainment area. Data for this analysis 

will be obtained from the current regional Travel Demand Model as well as 

Tennessee and Mississippi sources. 

Air Quality Analysis Parameters 

Several parameters have been identified for use in the preparation of this 

analysis. The parameters listed below will be applied in the base MOVES setup: 

 Pollutants to be monitored: CO (Shelby County only), NOx, and VOC 

 Model years: 2004 (model base year), 2010, 2011 (DeSoto County 

baseline year), 2015 (attainment year), 2017 (Shelby County only), 2020, 

2030, and 2040 (reflecting the conformity years established for the 2040 

LRTP) 

 MOVES modeling technique: Inventory method 

 Scale: County 

 Time Span: 

o Time aggregation: Hour 

o January (for CO analysis) or July (for NOx and VOC analysis) 

o All hours of day selected 

o Weekdays only 
May 17, 2013 

Page 2 

 Geographic Bounds: Two counties – one full county (Shelby County, 

TN) and one partial county (DeSoto County, MS). Each geographic area 

will be performed separately. 

 Vehicles/Equipment: All source types, gasoline and diesel 

 Road Type: All road types including off-network 

 Pollutants and Processes: Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx), Volatile Organic 

Compounds (VOC), Non-Methane Hydrocarbons (NMHC), and Total 

Gaseous Hydrocarbons (THC) – Shelby County and DeSoto County; and 

Carbon Monoxide (CO) – Shelby County only 

 Strategies: none 

 General Output: Units = grams, joules and miles 

 Output Emissions: Time = hour, Location = county, on-road emission 

rates by road type and source use type. 

 Advanced Performance: none 

The following assumptions will be applied within the County Data Manager 

portion of the MOVES software package for the Shelby County portion of the 

non-attainment area. Each parameter is identified, along with the source data that 

will be applied (if applicable). Locally-generated data will be referenced first, 

where available. 

 Source Type Population: Some data exists for this input from a study 

conducted by UT. However, there is not a sufficient level of confidence 

in this data to use it. As a result, default data will be used as a starting 

point for all source types. The MOVES Technical Guidance provides 

guidance on how to adjust default data with local VMT data, a 

methodology that will be referenced for all analysis years. 

 Vehicle Type VMT: Based on local data with EPA converters used to get 

into MOVES format. HPMSVTypeYear VMT = daily VMT from 

Memphis Travel Demand Model with EPA’s daily to annual VMT 

converter applied. monthVMTFraction = EPA converter. 

dayVMTFraction=EPA converter. hourVMTFraction = local data from 

Memphis Travel Demand Model. Data pulled for AM, Midday, PM, and 

Off-Peak periods, and EPA converter applied to get 24-hour data. 

 I/M Programs: There is currently an I/M program in use within the City 

of Memphis. In order to reflect changing conditions and remain 

conservative, only effects from the tailpipe test will be considered in this 

analysis. 

 Fuel Formulation: Default data for Shelby County (obtained from the 

MOVES program) will be used. 

 Fuel Supply: Default data for Shelby County (obtained from the 

MOVES program) will be used. 
May 17, 2013 

Page 3 

 Meteorology Data: Local information obtained from NOAA data at the 

Memphis International Airport. TDEC provided three-year average data 

for the month of July, including hourly temperatures and humidity. This 

analysis will assume the meteorological data at this location can be 

applied to the entire modeled area. 

 Ramp Fraction: Using local data obtained from the Memphis Travel 

Demand Model. Ramp fractions will be obtained for Shelby County. 

 Road Type Distribution: Using local data obtained from the Memphis 

Travel Demand Model. Road type distributions will be obtained for 

Shelby County. 

 Age Distribution: Shelby County data for age distribution was found to 

not be available. As a result, this analysis will reference Shelby County, 

TN-specific data obtained from the UTK paper “Tennessee Traffic Data 

for Estimating Air Pollution Emissions in 2002.” An EPA converter will 

be used to change MOBILE6-formatted information to MOVES format. 

 Average Speed Distribution: Using local data obtained from the 

Memphis Travel Demand Model. This information will be drawn 

specifically from Shelby County. 

 Alternative Fuel Vehicle Types: MATA has provided information 

regarding the composition of its bus fleet. Based on this information, 

there are no CNG buses operating in Shelby County. As a result, the 

default AVFT data will be modified to reflect only standard fuel types. 

The following assumptions will be applied within the County Data Manager 

portion of the MOVES software package for the DeSoto County portion of the 

non-attainment area. Each parameter is identified, along with the source data that 

will be applied (if applicable). Locally-generated data will be referenced first, 

where available. 

 Source Type Population: Local and state information has been 

determined to be insufficient to generate source type population 

information for DeSoto County. As a result, default data will be used as 

a starting point for all source types. The MOVES Technical Guidance 

provides guidance on how to adjust default data with local VMT data, a 

methodology that will be referenced for all analysis years. 

 Vehicle Type VMT: Based on local data with EPA converters used to get 

into MOVES format. HPMSVTypeYear VMT = daily VMT from 

Memphis Travel Demand Model with EPA’s daily to annual VMT 

converter applied. monthVMTFraction = EPA converter. 

dayVMTFraction=EPA converter. hourVMTFraction = local data from 

Memphis Travel Demand Model. Data pulled for AM, Midday, PM, and 

Off-Peak periods, and EPA converter applied to get 24-hour data. 

 I/M Programs: There is no inspection and maintenance program in 

DeSoto County; therefore, no data is needed. 
May 17, 2013 

Page 4 

 Fuel Formulation: Default data for DeSoto County (obtained from the 

MOVES program) will be used. 

 Fuel Supply: Default data for DeSoto County (obtained from the 

MOVES program) will be used. 

 Meteorology Data: Local information obtained from NOAA data at the 

Memphis International Airport. TDEC provided three-year average data 

for the month of July, including hourly temperatures and humidity. This 

analysis will assume the meteorological data at this location can be 

applied to the entire modeled area. 

 Ramp Fraction: Using local data obtained from the Memphis Travel 

Demand Model. Ramp fractions will be obtained for the portion of 

DeSoto County being modeled. 

 Road Type Distribution: Using local data obtained from the Memphis 

Travel Demand Model. Road type distributions will be obtained for the 

portion of DeSoto County being modeled. 

 Age Distribution: Local data obtained for DeSoto County age 

distribution will be used for vehicle classes 11, 21, and 31. For the 

remaining vehicle source types, the analysis will use Shelby County, TNspecific data obtained from the UTK paper “Tennessee Traffic Data for 

Estimating Air Pollution Emissions in 2002.” An EPA converter will be 

used to change MOBILE6-formatted information to MOVES format. 

 Average Speed Distribution: Using local data obtained from the 

Memphis Travel Demand Model. This information will be drawn 

specifically from the portion of DeSoto County being studied here. 

 Alternative Fuel Vehicle Types: There are no fixed-route transit buses 

operating in DeSoto County at this time. The default AVFT data will be 

modified to reflect only standard fuel types. 

Travel Demand Modeling 

Assumptions used for the Memphis Region Travel Demand Model are as 

follows: 

1) Base/Validation Year: 2004 

2) Project Listing: Provided as a part of the 2014-2017 Transportation 

Improvement Program (TIP) and the amended 2040 Long Range 

Transportation Plan (LRTP); includes 

a. Regionally Significant and Federally Funded 

b. Regionally Significant and Non-Federally Funded 

c. Conforms with Federal MAP-21 guidelines, including fiscal 

constraint 

3) Travel Demand Model is state of the practice and described in a separate 

document. 
May 17, 2013 

Page 5 

4) Demographic Data: Provided in a separate document 

5) Transit Modeling 

a. Transit mode split is estimated using trip end mode choice 

i. Estimates trips from the person trips developed in trip 

generation 

ii. Determines transit-oriented person trips prior to 

conversion of region’s person trips to vehicle trips 

Analysis and Documentation 

As a part of the air quality analysis, emissions will be generated for Shelby 

County and the DeSoto County non-attainment areas. The MOVES model 

developed in this analysis will also be run in emission rate mode as a quality 

assurance check. 

Kimley-Horn will perform this analysis and provide the results to the members of 

the interagency consultation group. All files, including scripts, queries, computer 

language, look-up tables, etc. will be provided to the interagency consultation 

group for review and reference. A methodology memorandum will be prepared 

in conjunction with this analysis to explain the steps taken and assumptions used 

in conducting this analysis. If it determined that the results of this analysis are 

appropriate for inclusion within the conformity process, documentation will be 

produced for the TIP and LRTP.