TOC-i TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT: COMMERCIAL UNITARY AIR CONDITIONERS AND HEAT PUMPS

CHAPTERS

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 2. ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK CHAPTER 3. MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT CHAPTER 4. SCREENING ANALYSIS CHAPTER 5. ENGINEERING ANALYSIS CHAPTER 6. BUILDING ENERGY USE AND END-USE LOAD CHARACTERIZATION CHAPTER 7. MARKUPS FOR EQUIPMENT PRICE DETERMINATION CHAPTER 8. LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSIS CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS CHAPTER 11. LIFE-CYCLE COST SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS CHAPTER 12. MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS CHAPTER 14. EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS

REPORTS

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR COMMERCIAL UNITARY AIR CONDITIONERS AND HEAT PUMPS

REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR COMMERCIAL UNITARY AIR CONDITIONERS AND HEAT PUMPS

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A. COMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGIES THAT ARE NOT CONSIDERED IN THE ENGINEERING ANALYSIS APPENDIX B. TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION OF THE COST ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY APPENDIX C. DESIGN OPTION ANALYSIS - SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION APPENDIX D. PARM FILE CONTENTS APPENDIX E. FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF BUILDINGS TYPE BY ASPECT RATIO BIN FOR EACH OF THE SIX PRINCIPAL BUILDING ACTIVITIES (PBAs) APPENDIX F. ASPECT RATIO CALCULATIONS FOR BUILDINGS WITH COURTYARDS APPENDIX G. LIGHTS, PLUG LOAD AND OCCUPANCY SCHEDULES APPENDIX H. NUMBER OF CBECS BUILDINGS ASSIGNED TO EACH TMY2 CITY APPENDIX I. TYPICAL METEOROLOGICAL YEAR (TMY) ASSIGNMENTSTOC-ii APPENDIX J. SAMPLE BLAST INPUT FILE APPENDIX K. DETAILED DATA FOR EQUIPMENT PRICE MARKUPS APPENDIX L. UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY APPENDIX M. SAMPLE UTILITIES APPENDIX N. HISTORICAL AND MODELED DATA BY SUBDIVISION APPENDIX O. MODELING TYPICAL METEOROLOGICAL YEAR (TMY) PRICES APPENDIX P. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST (LCC) AND PAYBACK PERIOD (PBP) SPREADSHEETS APPENDIX Q. LIFE-CYCLE COST (LCC) AND PAYBACK PERIOD (PBP) RESULTS APPENDIX R. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS (NES) AND NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) SPREADSHEET APPENDIX S. NATIONAL EQUIPMENT AND OPERATING COSTS APPENDIX T. BASE CASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY TRENDS APPENDIX U. ALTERNATIVE “MAX TECH” SCENARIO AND ITS IMPACT ON NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONSTOC-iii TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT: COMMERCIAL UNITARY AIR CONDITIONERS AND HEAT PUMPS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 PURPOSE OF DOCUMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-1 1.2 OVERVIEW OF COMMERCIAL EQUIPMENT STANDARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-1 1.3 OVERVIEW OF COMMERCIAL UNITARY AIR CONDITIONER AND HEAT PUMP STANDARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-3 1.4 STRUCTURE OF THE DOCUMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-6

CHAPTER 2. ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

2.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-1 2.2 BACKGROUND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-4 2.3 MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-4 2.3.1 Market Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-4 2.3.2 Technology Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-5 2.3.3 Equipment Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-5 2.4 SCREENING ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-6 2.4.1 Technology Screening . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-6 2.5 ENGINEERING ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-7 2.5.1 Baseline Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-7 2.5.2 Cost-Assessment Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-9 2.5.3 Supplemental Design/Option Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-9 2.5.4 Alternative Refrigerant Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-9 2.6 BUILDING ENERGY USE AND END-USE LOAD CHARACTERIZATION . . . . . 2-9 2.7 EQUIPMENT PRICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-10 2.8 LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-11 2.9 NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-13 2.9.1 National Energy Savings Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-13 2.9.2 Net Present Value Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-14 2.9.3 Efficiency Scenarios and Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-14 2.9.4 Shipments Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-15 2.10 LIFE-CYCLE COST SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-16 2.11 MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-17 2.12 UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-17 2.13 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-18 2.14 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-19 2.15 REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-20TOC-iv CHAPTER 3. MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

3.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-1 3.2 MAJOR EQUIPMENT COVERED BY RULEMAKING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-1 3.3 ROLE OF ASHRAE IN DEFINING EQUIPMENT CATEGORIES FOR ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-4 3.4 EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS AND MARKET SHARES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-6 3.4.1 ARI Section Members . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-6 3.4.2 ARI Non-Member Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-7 3.4.3 Current ARI Equipment Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-7 3.4.4 Market Share of Equipment under this Rulemaking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-9 3.5 MARKET EQUIPMENT: EFFICIENCY AND CAPACITY RANGE . . . . . . . . . . . 3-9 3.5.1 Overview of Equipment Availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-15 3.6 HISTORICAL SHIPMENTS AND EFFICIENCIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-16 3.6.1 Census Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-16 3.7 BASELINE EFFICIENCY AND IMPACT OF BUILDING CODES . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-19 3.7.1 Efficiency Links between Building Codes and Federal Legislation . . . . . . . . 3-19 3.7.2 Manufacturer Equipment Lines and Efficiency Before and After October 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-20 3.7.3 ASHRAE Standard 90.1-1999 Compliance by Manufacturers and Equipment Type as of January 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-23 3.7.4 Other Efficiency Descriptors (COP, IPLV) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-27 3.8 OTHER FACTS UNDER CONSIDERATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-30 3.8.1 Single Vertical Package Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-30 3.8.2 Other Specialized Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-31 3.8.3 Impact of Roof Curb in Replacement Design for Single Package Systems . . 3-31

CHAPTER 4. SCREENING ANALYSIS

4.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-1 4.2 TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-2 4.3 EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-2 4.3.1 Electro-Hydrodynamic Enhanced Heat Transfer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-2 4.3.2 Copper Rotor Motor with Improved Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-3 4.3.3 Non-HFC/HCFC Refrigerants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-4 4.3.3.1 Ammonia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-5 4.3.3.2 Carbon Dioxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-6 4.3.3.3 Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-7 4.4 COMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGIES THAT CAN ENHANCE EER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-8 4.4.1 Evaporator Coil Area (Keeping Coil Rows the Same) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-9 4.4.2 Condenser Coil Area (Keeping Coil Rows the Same) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-9 4.4.3 Coil Rows (Keeping Coil Heat Transfer Performance the Same) . . . . . . . . . . 4-10 4.4.4 Coil Rows (Keeping Face Area the Same) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-10 4.4.5 Microchannel Heat Exchangers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-11TOC-v 4.4.6 Deep Coil Heat Exchangers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-12 4.4.7 Low Pressure-Loss Filters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-12 4.4.8 High-Efficiency Fan Motors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-12 4.4.9 High-Efficiency Compressors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-13 4.4.10 Air-Foil Centrifugal Fans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-13 4.4.11 Backward-Curved Centrifugal Fans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-14 4.4.12 Synchronous (Toothed) Belt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-14 4.4.13 Direct Drive Fans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-15 4.4.14 High-Efficiency Propeller Condenser Fans and Motors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-15 4.4.15 Condenser Fan Diameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-16 4.4.16 Evaporator Fan Diameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-16 4.4.17 Elimination of Air Leakage Paths within Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-16 4.5 SCREENING PROCESS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-17

CHAPTER 5. ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

5.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1 5.2 EQUIPMENT CLASSES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-2 5.3 IDENTIFICATION OF BASELINE UNITS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-3 5.3.1 Efficiency Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-3 5.3.2 Capacities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-5 5.4 METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-5 5.5 TEARDOWN ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-6 5.5.1 Selection of Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-6 5.5.2 Generation of Bills of Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-8 5.6 COST MODEL AND DEFINITIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-8 5.6.1 Cost Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-9 5.6.2 Cost Model Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-10 5.6.3 Cost Model Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-11 5.6.4 Outsourcing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-12 5.6.5 Factory Parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-13 5.7 INDUSTRY COST-EFFICIENCY CURVES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-14 5.7.1 Plotting Absolute Cost Versus Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-15 5.7.2 Translating Absolute Cost to Incremental Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-15 5.7.3 Fitting the Cost-Efficiency Curve and Confidence Interval . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-16 5.8 DESIGN OPTION ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-19 5.8.1 Accuracy of Industry Cost-Efficiency Curves above 11.5 EER . . . . . . . . . . . 5-20 5.9 ALTERNATIVE REFRIGERANT ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-22 5.9.1 Alternative Refrigerant Selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-22 5.9.2 Alternative Refrigerant Product Availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-22 5.9.3 Differences Between R-22 and R-410a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-23 5.9.4 Cost-Efficiency Curve for R-410a Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-23TOC-vi CHAPTER 6. BUILDING ENERGY USE AND END-USE LOAD CHARACTERIZATION

6.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1 6.1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1 6.1.2 Methodology Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-2 6.2 ENGINEERING APPROACH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-3 6.2.1 Representative Building Types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-4 6.2.2 CBECS Data (1992 and 1995) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-6 6.2.2.1 CBECS Data Used . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-6 6.2.2.2 Building Characteristics in the 1033 Data Set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-8 6.2.2.3 Engineering Database . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-11 6.2.3 Overview of Modeling Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-13 6.2.3.1 Space Air-Conditioning Load Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-13 6.2.3.2 The Three-Story Prototype Building Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-15 6.2.4 Development of Equipment Efficiency Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-16 6.2.5 Engineering Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-17 6.2.5.1 Development of Building Envelope Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-17 6.2.5.2 Window-Wall Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-23 6.2.5.3 Aspect Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-25 6.2.5.4 Schedules and Load Densities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-27 6.2.5.5 Ventilation and Infiltration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-37 6.2.5.6 Economizer Use and Control Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-43 6.2.5.7 Heating and Cooling Setpoint . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-43 6.2.5.8 Equipment Sizing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-44 6.2.6 GeoClimate Locations and TMY2 Station Assignments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-48 6.2.7 Simulation and Data Manipulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-50 6.3 SUMMARY OF RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-55 6.3.1 Comparison of Simulation End-Use Intensities to CBECS-Calculated EUIs . 6-55 6.3.2 Annual Building Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-57 6.3.3 Comparison of Results to the Screening Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-59

CHAPTER 7. MARKUPS FOR EQUIPMENT PRICE DETERMINATION

7.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-1 7.1.1 Baseline Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-2 7.1.2 Incremental Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-3 7.1.3 Overall Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-4 7.2 BASIC ASSUMPTIONS USED TO ESTIMATE WHOLESALER AND CONTRACTOR MARKUPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-4 7.3 ESTIMATION OF WHOLESALE MARKUPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-6 7.3.1 Estimation of Wholesale Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-7 7.4 ESTIMATION OF MECHANICAL CONTRACTOR MARKUPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-8 7.4.1 Markups for Small and Large Mechanical Contractors in the ReplacementTOC-vii and New Construction Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-9 7.4.2 Estimation of Mechanical Contractor Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . 7-14 7.5 ESTIMATION OF GENERAL CONTRACTOR MARKUPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-15 7.5.1 Estimation of General Contractor Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . 7-16 7.6 SALES TAX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-17 7.7 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-18 7.8 OVERALL MARKUPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-19

CHAPTER 8. LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSIS

8.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-1 8.1.1 General Approach for LCC and PBP Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-1 8.1.2 Overview of LCC and PBP Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-2 8.1.3 Use of Whole-Building Simulations in LCC and PBP Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-6 8.2 LIFE-CYCLE COST INPUTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-7 8.2.1 Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-7 8.2.2 Total Installed Cost Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-7 8.2.2.1 Baseline Manufacturer Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-8 8.2.2.2 Standard-Level Manufacturer Price Increases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-10 8.2.2.3 Overall Markup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-10 8.2.2.4 Installation Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-12 8.2.2.5 Weighted-Average Total Installed Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-14 8.2.3 Operating Cost Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-17 8.2.3.1 Electricity Price Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-18 8.2.3.2 Electricity Price Trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-41 8.2.3.3 Repair Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-43 8.2.3.4 Maintenance Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-44 8.2.3.5 Lifetime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-45 8.2.3.6 Discount Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-47 8.2.3.7 Effective Date of Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-53 8.3 PAYBACK PERIOD INPUTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-53 8.3.1 Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-53 8.3.2 Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-54 8.4 RESULTS USING TARIFF-BASED ELECTRICITY PRICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-54 8.4.1 Life-Cycle Cost Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-54 8.4.1.1 LCC Breakdown Based on Average Input Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-55 8.4.1.2 Baseline LCC Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-57 8.4.1.3 Differences in LCC Between Baseline and Standard EER Level Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-58 8.4.2 Payback Period Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-64 8.5 RESULTS USING HOURLY BASED ELECTRICITY PRICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-68 8.5.1 Life-Cycle Cost Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-68 8.5.1.1 Life-Cycle Cost Breakdown Based on Average Input Values . . . . . 8-68 8.5.1.2 Baseline LCC Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-71TOC-viii 8.5.1.3 Differences in LCC Between Baseline and Standard EER Level Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-72 8.5.2 Payback Period Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-76

CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

9.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-1 9.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL EQUATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-4 9.2.1 Mathematical Formulation of the Shipments Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-4 9.2.2 Stock Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-5 9.2.2.1 Broken equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-5 9.2.2.2 New equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-6 9.2.2.3 Demolitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-7 9.2.3 Stock Equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-8 9.2.4 Probability Equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-9 9.3 DATA INPUTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-10 9.3.1 Historical Shipments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-10 9.3.2 Historical Shipped Tonnage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-12 9.3.3 Commercial Floor Space and Market Saturation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-13 9.3.3.1 Floor Space - New Construction (NFS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-14 9.3.3.2 Floor Space - Existing Stock (EFS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-14 9.3.3.3 Demolished Floor Space (DFS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-15 9.3.3.4 Market Saturation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-15 9.3.3.5 Eligible Market and Maximum Market Constraint . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-16 9.3.4 Equipment Utility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-16 9.3.4.1 Equipment Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-16 9.3.4.2 Operating Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-18 9.3.4.3 Discounted Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-19 9.3.4.4 Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-19 9.3.5 Model Calibration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-19 9.3.5.1 Parameter Constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-20 9.3.5.2 Model Constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-20 9.3.5.3 Market Constraints and Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-20 9.4 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-21 9.4.1 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h Equipment Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-21 9.4.2 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h Equipment Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-24

CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-1 10.2 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-2 10.2.1 NES Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-2 10.2.2 NES Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-3 10.2.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-3TOC-ix 10.2.2.2 Shipments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-10 10.2.2.3 Equipment Stock (STOCK V

) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-10 10.2.2.4 National Annual Energy Consumption ( AEC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-11 10.2.2.5 Site-to-Source Conversion Factor (src_conv) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-11 10.3 NET PRESENT VALUE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-13 10.3.1 Net Present Value Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-13 10.3.2 Net Present Value Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-14 10.3.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost (TIC y) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-15 10.3.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings (OCS y) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-16 10.3.2.3 Discount Factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-20 10.3.2.4 Present Value of Costs (PVC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-21 10.3.2.5 Present Value of Savings (PVS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-21 10.4 NES AND NPV RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-21 10.4.1 NES and NPV Input Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-22 10.4.2 National Energy Savings Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-23 10.4.3 Annual Costs and Savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-24 10.4.4 Net Present Value Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-31 10.4.5 “Max Tech” Sensitivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-34

CHAPTER 11. LIFE-CYCLE COST SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS

11.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-1 11.2 PURCHASE PRICE INCREASES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-1

CHAPTER 12. MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS

12.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-1 12.2 METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-1 12.2.1 Phase 1: Industry Profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-1 12.2.2 Phase 2: Industry Cash Flow Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-1 12.2.2.1 Industry Cash-Flow Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-2 12.2.2.2 Interview Guide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-2 12.2.3 Phase 3: Sub-Group Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-3 12.2.3.1 Manufacturer Interviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-3 12.2.3.2 Revised Industry Cash Flow Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-4 12.2.3.3 Manufacturer Sub-Group Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-4 12.2.3.4 Competitive Impact Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-4 12.2.3.5 Manufacturing Capacity Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-4 12.2.3.6 Employment Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-5 12.2.3.7 Cumulative Regulatory Burden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-5 12.3 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-5 12.3.1 Phase 1 – Industry Profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-5 12.3.2 Phase 2 – Industry Cash Flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-6 12.3.3 Phase 3 – Sub-Group Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-6TOC-x CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

13.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-1 13.2 METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-2 13.3 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-2

CHAPTER 14. EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-1 14.2 ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-1 14.3 METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-1

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR COMMERCIAL UNITARY AIR CONDITIONERS AND HEAT PUMPS

1.0 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . EA-1 2.0 METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . EA-1 3.0 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . EA-2

REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR COMMERCIAL UNITARY AIR CONDITIONERS AND HEAT PUMPS

1.0 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-1 2.0 METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-1

APPENDIX A. COMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGIES THAT ARE NOT CONSIDERED IN THE ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

A.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1 A.2 COMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGIES THAT DO NOT IMPACT EER, BUT REDUCE ANNUAL ENERGY USE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1 A.2.1 Multiple Compressors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1 A.2.2 Compressor Cylinder Staging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-2 A.2.3 Thermal Expansion Valves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-3 A.2.4 Electronic Expansion Valves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-3 A.2.5 High-Pressure-Side Solenoid Valve and Discharge Line Check-Valve . . . . . A-3 A.2.6 Double-Skin and High-Albedo Cabinets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-4 A.2.7 Demand-Controlled Ventilation Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-4 A.2.8 Economizer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-5 A.2.9 Thermal Energy Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-5 A.2.10 Multiple-Speed Supply Fans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-6 A.2.11 Multiple-Speed Condenser Fans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-6 A.3 COMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGIES THAT TYPICALLY DEGRADE EER, BUT CAN REDUCE ANNUAL ENERGY USE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-7TOC-xi A.3.1 Inverter-Driven, Variable-Speed Compressors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-7 A.3.2 Inverter-Driven, Variable-Speed Indoor or Condenser Fans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-8 A.3.3 Exhaust Air Enthalpy Recovery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-8 A.4 ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-9 A.4.1 Wrap-Around Heat-Pipes (For High Latent Loads) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-9 A.5 SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-10

APPENDIX B. TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION OF THE COST ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY

B.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-1 B.2 GATHERING PRODUCT INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-1 B.2.1 Teardown of Physical Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-1 B.2.2 Catalog Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-1 B.2.3 Design Option Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-2 B.3 CREATING A STRUCTURED BILL OF MATERIALS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-2 B.4 ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION COST DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-4 B.4.1 Labor and Factory Overhead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-4 B.4.2 Depreciation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-4 B.4.3 Parts and Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-5 B.5 STRUCTURE OF THE COST MODELS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-6 B.5.1 Main Cost Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-6 B.5.1.1 Global Controls Sheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-6 B.5.1.2 Manufacturer Data Sheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-8 B.5.1.3 Purchased Parts Sheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-9 B.5.1.4 Bill-of-Materials Sheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-9 B.5.1.5 Equipment Data Sheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-10 B.5.2 Coil Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-11

APPENDIX C. DESIGN OPTION ANALYSIS - SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION

C.1 MODELING TOOLS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-1 C.1.1 DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-1 C.1.2 Heat Exchanger Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-5 C.1.3 Compressor Map Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-5 C.1.4 Fan Curve Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-6 C.2 BASELINE MODELS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-6 C.2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-6 C.2.2 7.5-ton Standard-Efficiency Rooftop Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-7 C.2.3 7.5-ton High-Efficiency Rooftop Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-10 C.2.4 15-ton Standard-Efficiency Rooftop Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-11 C.2.5 15-ton High-Efficiency Rooftop Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-13 C.3 DESIGN MODIFICATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-15 C.3.1 Design Paths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-15TOC-xii C.3.2 7.5-ton Standard-Efficiency Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-17 C.3.3 7.5-ton High-Efficiency Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-18 C.3.4 15-ton Standard-Efficiency Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-19 C.3.5 15-ton High-Efficiency Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-21 C.4 R-410A ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-23 C.4.1 7.5-ton R-410A Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-23 C.4.2 15-ton R-410A Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-25

APPENDIX D. PARM FILE CONTENTS

D.1 PARM FILE FIELD NAMES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1 D.2 PARM FILE CONTENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1

APPENDIX E. FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF BUILDINGS TYPE BY ASPECT RATIO BIN FOR EACH OF THE SIX PRINCIPAL BUILDING ACTIVITIES (PBAs)

APPENDIX F. ASPECT RATIO CALCULATIONS FOR BUILDINGS WITH COURTYARDS

F.1 COURTYARD ASPECT RATIO DETERMINATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-1 F.2 MAPPING TO A RECTANGULAR BUILDING WITHOUT A COURTYARD . . . . F-1

APPENDIX G. LIGHTS, PLUG LOAD AND OCCUPANCY SCHEDULES

APPENDIX H. NUMBER OF CBECS BUILDINGS ASSIGNED TO EACH TMY2 CITY

APPENDIX I. TYPICAL METEOROLOGICAL YEAR (TMY) ASSIGNMENTS

APPENDIX J. SAMPLE BLAST INPUT FILE

J.1 SAMPLE BLAST INPUT FILE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . J-1

APPENDIX K. DETAILED DATA FOR EQUIPMENT PRICE MARKUPS

K.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1 K.2 DETAILED WHOLESALER COST DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1 K.3 DETAILED GENERAL CONTRACTOR COST DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2 K.4 DETAILED MECHANICAL CONTRACTOR DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-3TOC-xiii K.5 ESTIMATION OF WHOLESALER AND CONTRACTOR MARK-UP STANDARD DEVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-4

APPENDIX L. UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY

L.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . L-1 L.2 UNCERTAINTY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . L-1 L.3 VARIABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . L-1 L.4 APPROACHES TO UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . L-2 L.5 PROBABILITY ANALYSIS AND THE USE OF CRYSTAL BALL . . . . . . . . . . . . . L-2

APPENDIX M. SAMPLE UTILITIES

APPENDIX N. HISTORICAL AND MODELED DATA BY SUBDIVISION

APPENDIX O. MODELING TYPICAL METEOROLOGICAL YEAR (TMY) PRICES

O.1 LOAD-TEMPERATURE MODELING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-1 O.1.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-1 O.1.2 Illustration of the Five Steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-1 O.1.2.1 Step 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-1 O.1.2.2 Step 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-3 O.1.2.3 Step 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-3 O.1.2.4 Step 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-4 O.1.2.5 Step 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-4 O.2 PRICE-LOAD MODELING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-5 O.2.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-5 O.2.2 Illustration of the Seven Steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-6 O.2.2.1 Step 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-6 O.2.2.2 Step 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-7 O.2.2.3 Step 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-8 O.2.2.4 Step 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-8 O.2.2.5 Step 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-9 O.2.2.6 Step 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-9

APPENDIX P. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST (LCC) AND PAYBACK PERIOD (PBP) SPREADSHEETS

P.1 User Instructions for Tariff-Based Spreadsheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P-1 P.2 User Instructions for Hourly Based Spreadsheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P-4TOC-xiv APPENDIX Q. LIFE-CYCLE COST (LCC) AND PAYBACK PERIOD (PBP) RESULTS

Q.1 LIFE-CYCLE COST RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-1 Q.1.1 Tariff-Based LCC Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-2 Q.1.1.1 Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners, 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-2 Q.1.1.2 Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners, 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-6 Q.1.2 Hourly-Based Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-11 Q.1.2.1 Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners, 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-11 Q.1.2.2 Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners, 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-15 Q.2 PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-20 Q.2.1 Tariff-Based Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-21 Q.2.1.1 Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners, 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-21 Q.2.1.2 Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners, 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-23 Q.2.2 Hourly-Based Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-26 Q.2.2.1 Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners, 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-26 Q.2.2.2 Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners, 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-28

APPENDIX R. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS (NES) AND NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) SPREADSHEET

R.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R-1

APPENDIX S. NATIONAL EQUIPMENT AND OPERATING COSTS

S.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S-1 S.2 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S-2

APPENDIX T. BASE CASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY TRENDS

T.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T-1 T.2 BASE CASE EFFICIENCY TRENDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T-1 T.3 STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY TRENDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T-3TOC-xv APPENDIX U. ALTERNATIVE “MAX TECH” SCENARIO AND ITS IMPACT ON NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE

U.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U-1 U.2 STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY TRENDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U-1 U.3 NES AND NPV RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U-4

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONSTOC-xvi LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.3.1 Commercial Unitary Air Conditioner and Heat Pump Analyses under the Process Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-4

Table 2.5.1 ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1- 1999 Minimum EER requirements for Unitary Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-8

Table 3.2.1 ARI Equipment Types Covered in Rulemaking , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-4 Table 3.3.1 ARI Designation Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-5 Table 3.3.2 ASHRAE Standard 90.1-1989 Minimum Efficiency (EER) Levels . . . . . . . . 3-5 Table 3.3.3 ASHRAE Standard 90.1-1999 Minimum Efficiency (EER) Levels . . . . . . . . 3-5 Table 3.4.1 Domestic Manufacturers with Respective Trade-names . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-7 Table 3.5.1 Market Information for Year-Round Single Package Air Conditioner, Air Cooled (SPY-A) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-10 Table 3.5.2 Market Information for Single Package Air Conditioner, Air Cooled (SP-A) 3-11 Table 3.5.3 Market Information for Split System: Condensing Unit, Coil with Blower, Air Cooled (RCU-A-CB) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-12 Table 3.5.4 Market Information for Single Package Heat Pump, Air Source (HSP-A) . . . 3-13 Table 3.5.5 Market Information for Split System: Heat Pump with Remote Outdoor Unit, Air Source (HRCU-A-CB) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-14 Table 3.7.1 July 2001 Efficiency Levels for Year-Round Single Package Air Conditioner, Air Cooled (SPY-A) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-21 Table 3.7.3 Compliance with ASHRAE Standard 90.1-1999 levels for the



### $65,000 to <135,000 Btu/h Cooling Capacity Range: Major Manufacturers 3-23 Table 3.7.4 Compliance with ASHRAE Standard 90.1-1999 Levels for Equipment in the 

### $ 135,000 to < 240,000 Btu/h Cooling Capacity Range: Major Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-24 Table 3.7.5 Parameters Used in Algorithm to Identify Base Models from Jan. 2002 ARI Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-26 Table 3.7.6 Manufacturer Base Models and ASHRAE Standard 90.1-1999 Compliance . 3-27

Table 4.5.1 Design Options Not Viable for Consideration in the Engineering Analysis . . 4-18 Table 4.5.2 Design Options Viable for Consideration in the Engineering Analysis . . . . . 4-19

Table 5.2.1 Census Data for Equipment Sub-Categories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-2 Table 5.5.1 Numbers of Products Considered and Selected from the 7.5-ton Equipment Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-7 Table 5.5.2 Numbers of Products Considered and Selected from the 15-ton Equipment Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-7 Table 5.6.1 Cost Model Outsourcing Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-12 Table 5.6.2 Purchased Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-13 Table 5.7.1 The 7.5-ton Equipment Class Cost-Efficiency Relationship and Confidence Interval . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-17TOC-xvii Table 5.7.2 The 15-ton Equipment Class Cost-Efficiency Relationship and Confidence Interval . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-18 Table 5.8.1 Comparison Table for the Model Calibration Versus Test Data . . . . . . . . . . . 5-20

Table 6.2.1 ANOPR Building Categories Versus CBECS PBA Categories . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-5 Table 6.2.2 CBECS Variables Used in the Characterization Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-6 Table 6.2.3 Characteristics of CBECS Buildings Used in the ANOPR Analysis . . . . . . . . 6-9 Table 6.2.4 Building Type Distributions in the 1033 Building Set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-10 Table 6.2.5 Percentage of Represented Buildings by Floor Area for the 1033 Building Set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-10 Table 6.2.6 Building Distribution (Percentage) by Building Type and Census Division for the 1033 Building Set (Top Number in Each Cell) and the Total Number of Buildings Represented (Bottom Number). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-11 Table 6.2.7 Listing of Parameter File Variables and Sample Values from One Building . 6-12 Table 6.2.8 EER Levels Selected for Building Simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-16 Table 6.2.9 Building Envelope Characteristics Variables in CBECS95 Survey . . . . . . . . 6-18 Table 6.2.10 Categorization of CBECS Wall Construction Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-20 Table 6.2.11 U-Factors for Wall Insulation Levels by Construction Category . . . . . . . . . . 6-21 Table 6.2.12 Estimated Fraction of Low-E Glass in Commercial Fenestration . . . . . . . . . . 6-22 Table 6.2.13 Window U-Factor and Shading Coefficient Combinations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-23 Table 6.2.14 Assigned WWR Weight for Each PBA in the 1995 Building Set . . . . . . . 6-24 Table 6.2.15 Weights for Random Assignment Within Each WWR Bin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-25 Table 6.2.16 Total Building Adjusted Floor Area for each Building Type and Aspect Ratio Bin (Millions of Square Feet) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-27 Table 6.2.17 Number of Hours a Building is Open Each Week . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-30 Table 6.2.18 Number of Sample Buildings in Each Schedule Category . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-30 Table 6.2.19 Peak Lighting Power Densities for Each of the Six Building Types . . . . . . . . 6-33 Table 6.2.20 Peak Plug Load Power Densities for Each of the Six Building Types . . . . . . 6-35 Table 6.2.21 Ventilation Rates Used for Each Building Type (cfm/ft2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-38 Table 6.2.22 ASHRAE Standard 62-2001 Data for Education Building Spaces . . . . . . . . . 6-40 Table 6.2.23 ASHRAE Standard 62-2001 Data for Food Service Building Spaces . . . . . . 6-41 Table 6.2.24 ASHRAE Standard 62-2001 Data for Assembly Building Spaces . . . . . . . . . 6-42 Table 6.2.25 Development of Design-Day Data for BLAST Simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-45 Table 6.2.26 Estimate of Capacity Purchased Versus Capacity Required for Two Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-47 Table 6.2.27 TMY2 Stations by Census Region and Climate Zone, Including Alaska and Hawaii, and Excluding Puerto Rico and Guam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-49 Table 6.2.28 Number of CBECS Buildings by Climate Zone and Census Region . . . . . . . 6-50 Table 6.3.1 Comparison of Annual Consumption for the Cooling and Fan Energy at Each of the 10 EER Levels, for the ANOPR Analysis and the 2000 DOE Screening Analysis. Percent Savings Based on EER=8.9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-59

Table 7.3.1 Wholesale Expenses and Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-6 Table 7.4.1 Mechanical Contractor Expenses and Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-9TOC-xviii Table 7.4.2 Mechanical Contractor Expenses and Markups by Contractor Size . . . . . . . . 7-11 Table 7.4.3 Mechanical Contractor Expenses and Markups by Market Type . . . . . . . . . . 7-12 Table 7.4.4 Baseline Markups by Mechanical Contractor Size and Market Type . . . . . . . 7-13 Table 7.4.5 Incremental Markups by Mechanical Contractor Size and Market Type . . . . 7-14 Table 7.5.1 General Contractor Expenses and Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-16 Table 7.6.1 Distribution of Sales Tax Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-18 Table 7.8.1 Overall Baseline Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-19 Table 7.8.2 Overall Incremental Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-20

Table 8.1.1 Summary Information of Inputs for the Determination of LCC and PBP . . . . . 8-5 Table 8.2.1 Inputs for Total Installed Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-8 Table 8.2.2 ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1- 1999 Minimum EER Requirements for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-9 Table 8.2.3 Baseline Manufacturer Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-9 Table 8.2.4 Standard-Level Manufacturer Price Increases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-10 Table 8.2.5 Overall Baseline Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-11 Table 8.2.6 Overall Incremental Markups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-12 Table 8.2.7 Installation Costs for Baseline-Efficient Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-13 Table 8.2.8 Installation Cost Indices (National Value = 100.0) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-13 Table 8.2.9 Costs and Markups for Determination of Weighted-average Total Installed Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-15 Table 8.2.10 Weighted-Average Equipment Price, Installation Cost, and Total Installed Costs (2001$) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-16 Table 8.2.11 Inputs for Operating Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-17 Table 8.2.12 Percentage of All C&I Customers, by Subdivision, in the Utility Sample . . . 8-21 Table 8.2.13 Energy Consumption, Demand, and Marginal Prices for Five Different Customers on One Tariff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-26 Table 8.2.14 Parameters Used in the Calculation of Customer Energy Cost Savings Based on Hourly Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-39 Table 8.2.15 Marginal Prices Computed from Air-conditioning Load Reductions Using the Tariff-based and Hourly Based Electricity Price Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-41 Table 8.2.16 Weighted-average Annualized Repair Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-43 Table 8.2.17 Annualized Maintenance Costs for Baseline Efficient Air Conditioners . . . . 8-45 Table 8.2.18 Description of Companies Included in Discount Rate Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-49 Table 8.2.19 Average Values for Variables Used to Estimate Company Discount Rates . . 8-50 Table 8.2.20 Estimated Shares of Commercial Air Conditioner Purchases by Ownership Category . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-50 Table 8.2.21 Real Discount Rates by Ownership Category . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-51 Table 8.2.22 Sensitivity of Real Discount Rates to Equity Risk Premium and Risk Free Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-53 Table 8.4.1 Baseline LCC: Tariff-Based Mean, Median, Minimum, and Maximum Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-58 Table 8.4.2 Summary of Tariff-based LCC Results for 

### $ 65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h Commercial Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-62TOC-xix Table 8.4.3 Summary of Tariff-based LCC Results for 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h Commercial Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-63 Table 8.4.4 Summary of Tariff-based PBP Results for 

### $ 65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h Commercial Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-66 Table 8.4.5 Summary of Tariff-based PBP Results for 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h Commercial Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-67 Table 8.5.1 Baseline LCC: Hourly Based Mean, Median, Minimum, and Maximum Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-72 Table 8.5.2 Summary of Hourly Based LCC Results for 

### $ 65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h Commercial Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-74 Table 8.5.3 Summary of Hourly Based LCC Results for 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h Commercial Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-75 Table 8.5.4 Summary of Hourly Based PBP Results for 

### $ 65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h Commercial Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-79 Table 8.5.5 Summary of Hourly Based PBP Results for 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h Commercial Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-80

Table 9.3.1 Market Saturations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-16 Table 9.3.2 Model and Market Constraints and Calibration Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-21 Table 9.4.1 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Forecasted Shipments for the Base Case and Standards Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-23 Table 9.4.2 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Forecasted Shipments for the Base Case and Standards Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-26

Table 10.2.1 National Energy Saving Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-3 Table 10.2.2 Average Annual Energy Consumption per Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-9 Table 10.2.3 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-12 Table 10.3.1 Net Present Value Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-14 Table 10.3.2 Average Total Installed Cost per Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-15 Table 10.3.3 Average Annual Energy Expense per Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-17 Table 10.3.4 Average Annual Repair Cost per Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-19 Table 10.4.1 NES and NPV Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-22 Table 10.4.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-23 Table 10.4.3 Cumulative NPV Results based on a Seven percent Discount Rate (billion 2001$) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-32 Table 10.4.4 Cumulative NPV Results based on a Three percent Discount Rate (billion 2001$) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-33

Table A.5.1 Design Options Not Viable for Consideration in the Engineering Analysis . A-11

Table B.3.1 Manufacturing Processes Captured in a BOM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-3

Table C.1.1 Compressor Map Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-6TOC-xx Table C.3.1 Design Constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-16

Table E.1.1 Assembly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-1 Table E.1.2 Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-2 Table E.1.3 Food Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3 Table E.1.4 Office - Large . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4 Table E.1.5 Office - Small . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-5 Table E.1.6 Retail - Large . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-6 Table E.1.7 Retail - Small . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-7 Table E.1.8 Warehouse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-8

Table G.1.1 Lighting, Plug Load and Occupancy Schedules (Fraction of Weekday Per Load) for Building Open 24/7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-1 Table G.1.2 Lighting, Plug Load and Occupancy Schedules (Fraction of Weekday Per Load) for Building Open Monday Through Friday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-2 Table G.1.3 Lighting, Plug Load and Occupancy Schedules (Fraction of Weekday Per Load) for Building Open Monday Through Friday and Saturday . . . . . . . . . . G-3 Table G.1.4 Lighting, Plug Load and Occupancy Schedules (Fraction of Weekday Per Load) for Building Open Monday Through Friday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-5 Table G.1.5 Lighting, Plug Load and Occupancy Schedules (Fraction of Weekday Per Load) for Building Open Monday Through Sunday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-6

Table H.1.1 Number of CBECS Buildings Assigned to Each TMY2 City . . . . . . . . . . . . . H-1

Table I.1.1 Listing of CBECS Buildings, GEO Climate Region and Assigned TMY2 City, Sorted by CBECS Building ID . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I-1

Table K.2.1 Disaggregated Costs and Expenses for Wholesalers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2 Table K.3.1 Disaggregated Costs and Expenses for General Contractors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-3 Table K.4.1 Disaggregated Costs and Expenses for Mechanical Contractors . . . . . . . . . . . K-4 Table K.5.1 Wholesale Baseline Markups by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-6 Table K.5.2 General Contractor Baseline Markups by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-7 Table K.5.3 Mechanical Contractor Baseline Mark-ups by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-8

Table M.1.1 Sample Utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . —1

Table O.2.1 List of Price Spikes Occurring for the Summer, Peak Hours for New England (Subdivision 1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-10

Table S.2.1 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Cumulative National Equipment and Operating Costs with NPV, 7% Discount Rate (billion 2001$) . . . . . . . . . . . . S-3 Table S.2.2 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Cumulative National Equipment and Operating Costs with NPV, 3% Discount Rate (billion 2001$) . . . . . . . . . . . . S-4 Table S.2.3 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Cumulative National Equipment andTOC-xxi Operating Costs with NPV, 7% Discount Rate (billion 2001$) . . . . . . . . . . . . S-5 Table S.2.4 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Cumulative National Equipment and Operating Costs with NPV, 3% Discount Rate (billion 2001$) . . . . . . . . . . . . S-6

Table T.2.1 Base Case Historical and Projected Shipment-Weighted Efficiencies . . . . . . . T-2 Table T.3.1 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Forecasted Shipment-Weighted Efficiencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T-4 Table T.3.2 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Forecasted Shipment-Weighted Efficiencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T-5

Table U.2.1 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Forecasted Shipment-Weighted Efficiencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U-2 Table U.2.2 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Forecasted Shipment-Weighted Efficiencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U-3 Table U.3.1 Comparison of Cumulative National Energy Savings between Max Tech Cases for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U-4 Table U.3.2 Comparison of Cumulative NPV result between Max Tech Cases for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners based on a 7 percent Discount Rate (billion 2001$) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U-6

Table 1.1 Non-regulatory Alternatives to Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-1TOC-xxii LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1.1 Flow Diagram of Analysis for the Commercial Unitary Air Conditioner and Heat Pump Rulemaking Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-3

Figure 3.2.1 Single Package Configuration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-2 Figure 3.2.2 Split System Configuration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-3 Figure 3.6.1 Number of Units Shipped for Combined Split System and Single Package Air Conditioners and Air-Source Heat Pumps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-16 Figure 3.6.2 Year 2000 Total Number of Units Shipped for Large Unitary Equipment Based on Cooling Capacity Range . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-17 Figure 3.6.3 Year 2000 Percentage of Units Shipped for Large Unitary Equipment Based on Cooling Capacity Range . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-18 Figure 3.7.1 Heating COP versus EER for Single Package Heat Pump, Air Source (HSP-A), 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h Cooling Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-28 Figure 3.7.2 Heating COP Compared to EER for Split System: Heat Pump with Remote Outdoor Unit, Air Source (HRCH-A-B), 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h Cooling Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-28 Figure 3.7.3 IPLV Compared to EER for Year-Round Single Package Air Conditioner, Air Cooled (SPY-A), 

### $ 65,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h Cooling Capacity . . 3-29 Figure 3.7.4 IPLV Compared to EER for Split System: Condensing Unit, Coil with Blower, Air Cooled (RCU-A-B), 

### $ 65,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h Cooling Capacity 3-29

Figure 5.3.1 Range of Efficiency Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-4 Figure 5.4.1 Illustration of the Engineering Analysis Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-6 Figure 5.5.1 Efficiency Levels for the 30 Products Considered During the Teardown Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-7 Figure 5.7.1 Illustration of the Cost Translation Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-16 Figure 5.7.2 The 7.5-ton Equipment Class Cost-Efficiency Curve and Confidence Interval . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-17 Figure 5.7.3 The 15-ton Equipment Class Cost-Efficiency Curve and Confidence Interval . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-18 Figure 5.8.1 7.5-ton Cost-Efficiency Curve with Simulated Design Option Points . . . . . . 5-21 Figure 5.8.2 15-ton Cost-Efficiency Curve with Simulated Design Option Points . . . . . . . 5-21 Figure 5.9.1 7.5-ton R-22 Cost-Efficiency Curve with R-410a Design Option Points Overlaid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-24 Figure 5.9.2 15-ton R-22 Cost-Efficiency Curve with R-410a Design Option Points Overlaid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-24

Figure 6.1.1 Flow Diagram of the Load Shape Characterization Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-3 Figure 6.2.1 Simplified Flow Diagram of the Simulation Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-14 Figure 6.2.2 Typical Lighting Schedule for a Retail Store Open Monday Through Friday 6-29 Figure 6.3.2 Frequency distribution of the BLAST EUIs and the CBECS reported EUIs . 6-56 Figure 6.3.1 Plot of BLAST Cooling EUIs versus CBECS EUIs by BuildingTOC-xxiii Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-56 Figure 6.3.3 Comparison of BLAST and CBECS reported EUIs aggregated by GeoClimate region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-57 Figure 6.3.5 Change in BLAST Package Cooling EUIs with Increase in EER for Arbitrary Large and Small Buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-58 Figure 6.3.4 Fraction of Simulated Annual Building Energy Use by Major End Use and Building Type. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-58 Figure 6.3.6 Weighted Cooling EUI Across all 1033 Buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-60 Figure 6.3.7 Comparison of Cooling Equipment Energy Use with DOE Screening Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-60

Figure 7.1.1 Distribution Channels for Commercial Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-1 Figure 7.3.1 Wholesaler Baseline Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-8 Figure 7.3.2 Wholesaler Incremental Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-8 Figure 7.4.1 Mechanical Contractor Baseline Markup Probability Distribution, Large Contractors, New Construction Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-15 Figure 7.4.2 Mechanical Contractor Incremental Markup Probability Distribution, Large Contractors, New Construction Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-15 Figure 7.5.1 General Contractor Baseline Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-17 Figure 7.5.2 General Contractor Incremental Markup Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . 7-17

Figure 8.1.1 Flow Diagram of Inputs for the Determination of LCC and PBP . . . . . . . . . . . 8-4 Figure 8.2.1 Air Conditioner Equipment (Operating) Weight as a Function of Efficiency . 8-14 Figure 8.2.2 Map showing the Division of the Continental United States into 17 Subdivisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-19 Figure 8.2.3 Customer-Weighted Average Revenues Divided by Sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-22 Figure 8.2.4 Effect of a Change in Customer Demand (Energy Consumption is Held Fixed) for a Block-by-Demand Tariff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-25 Figure 8.2.5 Scatter Plot of the Historical Load versus Temperature Data for the Midwest (Subdivision 3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-31 Figure 8.2.6 Scatter Plot of the HistoricalLoad versus Temperature for Florida (Subdivision 5.3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-32 Figure 8.2.7 Scatter Plot of Load versus Temperature for the Midwest (Subdivision 3) . . 8-32 Figure 8.2.8 Scatter Plot of the Historical Price versus Load Data for the Midwest (Subdivision 3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-33 Figure 8.2.9 Scatter Plot of the HistoricalPrice versus Load Data for Florida (Subdivision 5.3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-34 Figure 8.2.10 Price Distribution Functions for the Midwest (Subdivision 3): Historical Data and Price-load Model Data Using Historical Loads. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-36 Figure 8.2.11 Price Distribution Functions for Texas (Subdivision 7.2): Historical Data and Price-load Model Data Using Historical Loads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-36 Figure 8.2.12 Electricity Price Trends for Commercial Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-42 Figure 8.2.13 Survival Functions for Commercial Air Conditioners and Residential Heat Pumps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-47TOC-xxiv Figure 8.2.14 Distribution of Discount Rates for All Ownership Categories . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-52 Figure 8.4.1 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Mean Total Installed Costs . . . . . . . . . . . 8-56 Figure 8.4.2 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Tariff-Based Mean Annual Operating Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-56 Figure 8.4.3 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Tariff-Based Mean Life-Cycle Costs . . . . 8-56 Figure 8.4.4 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Mean Total Installed Costs . . . . . . . . . . 8-56 Figure 8.4.5 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Tariff-Based Mean Annual Operating Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-56 Figure 8.4.6 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Tariff-Based Mean Life-Cycle Costs . . . 8-56 Figure 8.4.7 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Tariff-Based Baseline (10.1 EER) LCC Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-57 Figure 8.4.8 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Tariff-Based Baseline (9.5 EER) LCC Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-58 Figure 8.4.9 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Differences between 11.0 EER and Baseline (10.1 EER) . . . . . . . . . . . 8-59 Figure 8.4.10 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Tariff-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences between 11.0 EER and Baseline (10.1 EER) . . . . . . . . . . . 8-60 Figure 8.4.11 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Tariff-Based Mean LCC Savings . . . . . . 8-62 Figure 8.4.12 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Tariff-Based Percent of Units with LCC Savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-62 Figure 8.4.13 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Tariff-Based Mean LCC Savings . . . . . 8-63 Figure 8.4.14 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Tariff-Base Percent of Units with LCC Savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-63 Figure 8.4.15 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Tariff-based Frequency Chart of Payback Periods for 11 EER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-65 Figure 8.4.16 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Tariff-based Mean and Median Payback Periods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-66 Figure 8.4.17 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Tariff-based Mean and Median Payback Periods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-67 Figure 8.5.1 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Mean Total Installed Costs . . . . . . . . . . . 8-70 Figure 8.5.2 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Mean Annual Operating Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-70 Figure 8.5.3 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Mean Life-Cycle Costs . . . 8-70 Figure 8.5.4 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Mean Total Installed Costs . . . . . . . . . . 8-70 Figure 8.5.5 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Mean Annual Operating Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-70 Figure 8.5.6 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Mean Life-Cycle Costs . . 8-70 Figure 8.5.7 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Baseline (10.1 EER) LCC Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-71 Figure 8.5.8 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Baseline (9.5 EER) LCC Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-72 Figure 8.5.9 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Mean LCC Savings . . . . . 8-74 Figure 8.5.10 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Percent of Units with LCC Savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-74TOC-xxv Figure 8.5.11 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Mean LCC Savings . . . . 8-75 Figure 8.5.12 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Percent of Units with LCC Savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-75 Figure 8.5.13 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Frequency Chart of Payback Periods for 11 EER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-77 Figure 8.5.14 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Frequency Chart of Annual Energy Expense Differences between 11 EER and the Baseline (10.1 EER) . 8-77 Figure 8.5.15 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Mean and Median Payback Periods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-79 Figure 8.5.16 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Hourly Based Mean and Median Payback Periods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-80

Figure 9.1.1 Flow Chart Showing Inputs to the Shipments Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-3 Figure 9.3.1 Historical Shipments for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . 9-11 Figure 9.3.2 Historical Percent of Shipped Tonnage for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-13 Figure 9.3.3 Base Case Equipment Price Trend for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-17 Figure 9.4.1 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Base Case Shipments Forecast with Historical Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-21 Figure 9.4.2 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Forecasted Shipments for the Base Case and Standards Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-24 Figure 9.4.3 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Base Case Shipments Forecast with Historical Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-25 Figure 9.4.4 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Forecasted Shipments for the Base Case and Standards Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-27

Figure 10.2.1 Residential and Commercial Air Conditioner Actual, Historical, and Forecasted Shipment-Weighted Efficiencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-5 Figure 10.2.2 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Base Case and Standards Case Forecasted Efficiency Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-7 Figure 10.2.3 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Base Case and Standards Case Forecasted Efficiency Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-8 Figure 10.2.4 Average Annual Energy Consumption per Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-10 Figure 10.3.1 Average Total Installed Cost per Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-16 Figure 10.3.2 Average Annual Electricity Expense per Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-18 Figure 10.3.3 Average Annual Repair Cost per Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-20 Figure 10.4.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-24 Figure 10.4.2 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: National Annual Costs and Savings for ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1-1999 Candidate Standard Level . . . . . . 10-25 Figure 10.4.3 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: National Annual Costs and Savings for 10.5 EER Candidate Standard Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-26 Figure 10.4.4 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: National Annual Costs and Savings forTOC-xxvi 11.0 EER Candidate Standard Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-26 Figure 10.4.5 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: National Annual Costs and Savings for 11.5 EER Candidate Standard Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-27 Figure 10.4.6 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: National Annual Costs and Savings for 12.0 EER Candidate Standard Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-27 Figure 10.4.7 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: National Annual Costs and Savings for ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1-1999 Candidate Standard Level . . . . . . 10-28 Figure 10.4.8 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: National Annual Costs and Savings for 10.0 EER Candidate Standard Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-29 Figure 10.4.9 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: National Annual Costs and Savings for 10.5 EER Candidate Standard Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-29 Figure 10.4.10 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: National Annual Costs and Savings for 11.0 EER Candidate Standard Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-30 Figure 10.4.11 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: National Annual Costs and Savings for 11.5 EER Candidate Standard Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-30 Figure 10.4.12 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: National Annual Costs and Savings for 12.0 EER Candidate Standard Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-31 Figure 10.4.13 Cumulative NPV at a Seven percent Discount Rate for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-32 Figure 10.4.14 Cumulative NPV at a Three percent Discount Rate for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-34

Figure B.3.1 Sample Structured Bill of Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-3 Figure B.5.1 Overall Model Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-6 Figure B.5.2 Sample of Global Controls Page . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-7 Figure B.5.3 Sample Table showing Major Sub-Assembly and Plant Overhead Costs . . . . . B-7 Figure B.5.4 Sample Data Fields from Manufacturing Data Sheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-8 Figure B.5.5 Sample Raw Material Data Tablesand Part Price List from the Purchased Parts Sheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-10 Figure B.5.6 Sample from Equipment Data Sheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-11 Figure B.5.7 Flow Diagram for Coil Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-12 Figure B.5.8 Coil Model Output Fields . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-13 Figure B.5.9 Coil Manufacturing Costs Calculated in the Coil Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-13

Figure C.1.1 Cycle Balance Logic Diagram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-3 Figure C.1.2 Refrigerant Balance Logic Diagram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-4 Figure C.2.1 Evaporator Data (ORNL input page) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-8 Figure C.2.2 Condenser Data (ORNL input page) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-9 Figure C.2.3 Model Calibration with Test Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-10 Figure C.2.4 Evaporator Data (ORNL input page) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-12 Figure C.2.5 Condenser Data (ORNL input page) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-12 Figure C.2.6 Evaporator Data (ORNL Input page) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-14 Figure C.2.7 Condenser Data (ORNL input page) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-14 Figure C.3.1 7.5-ton High-Efficiency Baseline and Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-19TOC-xxvii Figure C.3.2 15-ton Standard-Efficiency Baseline and Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-21 Figure C.3.3 15-ton High-Efficiency Baseline and Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-23 Figure C.4.1 7.5-ton R-410a Baseline and Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-25 Figure C.4.2 15-ton R-410a Baseline and Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-26

Figure L.5.1 Normal Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . L-3 Figure L.5.2 Triangular Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . L-3 Figure L.5.3 Uniform Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . L-3

Figure N.1.1 Subdivision 1, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –1 Figure N.1.2 Subdivision 1, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –1 Figure N.1.3 Subdivision 2.1, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –2 Figure N.1.4 Subdivision 2.1, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –2 Figure N.1.5 Subdivision 2.2, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –3 Figure N.1.6 Subdivision 2.2, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –3 Figure N.1.7 Subdivision 3, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –4 Figure N.1.8 Subdivision 3, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –4 Figure N.1.9 Subdivision 4.1, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –5 Figure N.1.10 Subdivision 4.1, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –5 Figure N.1.11 Subdivision 4.2, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –6 Figure N.1.12 Subdivision 4.2, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –6 Figure N.1.13 Subdivision 5.1, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –7 Figure N.1.14 Subdivision 5.1, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –7 Figure N.1.15 Subdivision 5.2, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –8 Figure N.1.16 Subdivision 5.2, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –8 Figure N.1.17 Subdivision 5.3, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –9 Figure N.1.18 Subdivision 5.3, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –9 Figure N.1.19 Subdivision 6.1, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –10 Figure N.1.20 Subdivision 6.1, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –10 Figure N.1.21 Subdivision 6.2, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –11 Figure N.1.22 Subdivision 6.2, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –11 Figure N.1.23 Subdivision 7.1, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –12 Figure N.1.24 Subdivision 7.1, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –12 Figure N.1.25 Subdivision 7.2, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –13 Figure N.1.26 Subdivision 7.2, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –13 Figure N.1.27 Subdivision 8.1, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –14 Figure N.1.28 Subdivision 8.1, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –14 Figure N.1.29 Subdivision 8.2, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –15 Figure N.1.30 Subdivision 8.2, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –15 Figure N.1.31 Subdivision 9.1, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –16 Figure N.1.32 Subdivision 9.1, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –16 Figure N.1.33 Subdivision 9.2, Load vs. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –17 Figure N.1.34 Subdivision 9.2, Price vs. Load . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –17TOC-xxviii Figure O.1.1 Load-Temperature Data for the Midwest (Subdivision 3), 12-1 p.m. on a Weekday. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-2 Figure O.1.2 Scatter Plot of the Percentage Load Decrements DL versus Temperature . . . O-4 Figure O.1.3 Frequency Distributions for the Percentage Decrements for the Historical Load Data and Two Realizations of the Random Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-5 Figure O.2.1 Price-load Data for the Midwest (Subdivision 3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-7 Figure O.2.2 Price-load Data for the Summer, Off-peak Bin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O-8

Figure Q.1.1 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 10.5 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-2 Figure Q.1.2 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 10.5 EER: Tariff-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-2 Figure Q.1.3 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-3 Figure Q.1.4 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EER: Tariff-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-3 Figure Q.1.5 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 11.5 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-4 Figure Q.1.6 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 11.5 EER: Tariff-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-4 Figure Q.1.7 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 12.0 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-5 Figure Q.1.8 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 12.0 EER: Tariff-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-5 Figure Q.1.9 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 11.5 EER: Tariff-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-6 Figure Q.1.10 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 10.0 EER: Tariff-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-6 Figure Q.1.11 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 10.5 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-7 Figure Q.1.12 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 10.5 EER: Tariff-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-7 Figure Q.1.13 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-8 Figure Q.1.14 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EER: Tariff-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-8 Figure Q.1.15 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 11.5 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-9 Figure Q.1.16 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 11.5 EER: Tariff-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-9 Figure Q.1.17 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 12.0 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-10 Figure Q.1.18 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 12.0 EER: Tariff-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-10TOC-xxix Figure Q.1.19 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 10.5 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-11 Figure Q.1.20 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 10.5 EER: Hourly-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-11 Figure Q.1.21 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-12 Figure Q.1.22 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EER: Hourly-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-12 Figure Q.1.23 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 11.5 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-13 Figure Q.1.24 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 11.5 EER: Hourly-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-13 Figure Q.1.25 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 12.0 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-14 Figure Q.1.26 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 12.0 EER: Hourly-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-14 Figure Q.1.27 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 10.0 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-15 Figure Q.1.28 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 10.0 EER: Hourly-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-15 Figure Q.1.29 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 10.5 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-16 Figure Q.1.30 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 10.5 EER: Hourly-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-16 Figure Q.1.31 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-17 Figure Q.1.32 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EER: Hourly-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-17 Figure Q.1.33 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 11.5 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-18 Figure Q.1.34 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 11.5 EER: Hourly-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-18 Figure Q.1.35 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 12.0 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-19 Figure Q.1.36 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 12.0 EER: Hourly-Based Cumulative Chart of LCC Difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-19 Figure Q.2.1 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 10.5 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-21 Figure Q.2.2 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-21 Figure Q.2.3 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 11.5 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-22 Figure Q.2.4 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 12.0 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-22TOC-xxx Figure Q.2.5 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 10.0 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-23 Figure Q.2.6 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 10.5 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-23 Figure Q.2.7 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-24 Figure Q.2.8 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 11.5 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-24 Figure Q.2.9 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 12.0 EER: Tariff-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-25 Figure Q.2.10 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 10.5 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-26 Figure Q.2.11 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-26 Figure Q.2.12 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 11.5 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-27 Figure Q.2.13 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h, 12.0 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-27 Figure Q.2.14 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 10.0 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-28 Figure Q.2.15 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 10.5 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-28 Figure Q.2.16 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 11.0 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-29 Figure Q.2.17 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 11.5 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-29 Figure Q.2.18 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h, 12.0 EER: Hourly-Based Frequency Chart of PBP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q-30

Figure U.3.1 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Comparison of Cumulative National Energy Savings between Max Tech Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U-5 Figure U.3.2 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Comparison of Cumulative National Energy Savings between Max Tech Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U-5 Figure U.3.3 

### $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Comparison of Cumulative NPV between Max Tech Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U-7 Figure U.3.4 

### $ 135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Comparison of Cumulative NPV between Max Tech Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U-7