## Residential Furnaces and Boilers


## MA 

## ET AND TEC HN OLO GY ASS E SS M ENT

Mark Kendall (kendall .rnark@adlittle. com) Arthur D. Little, Inc. U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Residential Furnaces and Boilers

July 17, 2001M a rke t A ssess m ent Overview inf ormati o n collected d urin g the Market and Techn o lo g y As sess me nt i s fu n dam e n tal to several downstream analyses. 

### Market Tech n o l ogy Assessment Screenin Analysis N ational E

nergy Savings Manufact urer Impac t Ana l y sis F ir m s a nd indu stry structure Prod uc t c h ara cteristics H istorical sh i pm ents Non -re g ulato ry incentive s Reg ional differ en ces

Market Assessent 070601 b 1M a rket Assessment Information Sources ft.-T 7-11 The Department is currently gat h ering information from the following sources:

US DOE BTS Core Databook, 2000 US DOE Residential Energy Consumption Survey, 1997 US Census Industrial Reports, 2000 Appliance Magazine, 2000 SEC 10-K Annual Reports G AMA Statistical Highlights, 2000 G AMA Database, 2000 CEC Database, 2000 "Market for Ducted Warm Air Central Heating", BSRIA, 1997 "US Market for Hydronic Heating and Burners", BSRIA, 1998 Interviews with manufacturers Should the t consider additional sources? Are the st a ke hold e rs w il l i ng provide more detailed information? Market Assessent 070501 bM a rket A ssess m ent Specific Topics The marke t a s s e ss m ent rai s es s everal important qu estions.

® Should the Department consider regional differences in product distribution or use. If so, which ones? • What assumptions regarding the impact of non-regulatory initiatives (e
. g . Energy Star , utility rebates) should DOE use in the analysis? ® Are there any impending changes in the traditional 3-step distribution chain of which the Department should be aware?

Market Assessent 070501 b 3i Product Classes Proposed Product Classes Separate classes of furnaces and boilers can be established in order to accommodate differences in product efficiency and preserve consumer utility. ® Are the following classes appropriate?

Ga s f urnaces (Weatherized, Non-weatherized) O il f u rnaces (Weatherized, Non-weatherized) Mo bile home fur n aces (Gas, Oil) Hot water boilers (Gas, Oil) Stea m b oilers (Gas, Oil) Comb in ation sp a ce/wa ter heating a pp liance (Gas, Oil) 

### Could some c lass e s b e con s o lida ted fo r a na l yt ical purposes?

® (e.g. consider weatherized and non-weatherized furnaces together, applying a factor to correct for test procedure differences.)

Market Assessent 070501 b 4B a s eli n e Mod els Overview The D e partm en t defines b a seline model characteristics to se rv e th e ba sis fo r th e an alysis.

® Includes capacity, configuration, efficiency, and features

® Usually based on the most commonly sold minimum efficiency product in each product class. ® Serves as the basis for cost and performance estimates that are intended to represent the "typical" product

Market Assessent 070601 b 5a se d m th e m a rket assess m ent and input fro m GAMA, th e

Dep a rtm en t suggests u sing t h e following characteristics t o d efi n e base li ne furn a ces and boiler s. Furna c e - Input rating : 75 kBtuh (gas)

105 kBtuh (oil) - Upflow - 78% AFUE - Induced draft - Electronic ignition • Are these features appropriate? Should other features should be added? • Are mutliple baseline units needed within a class? • Should the Department define baseline products for other classes or is it possible to extrapolate the results to those classes? ® Since, for a given input rating, rated output will increase as efficiency increases, should we just allow the output to increase or should we adjust the input capacity downward to maintain constant output? Market Assessent 070501 b 6I Base li n e Mod els Product Capacity (Input Rating) Residential boilers range higher in input rating than furnaces.

Boilers +Z)UU I Furnaces

Source: GAMA database 2000.

Input Rating (kBtu/hr) 30 60 90 120 150 180 Input Rating (kBtu/hr) 210 ® W hy is this so? ® Should the baseline capacity change over time due to trends toward larger homes or toward "tighter" building envelopes.

Market Assessent 070501 b 7Bas eli n e M odels Furnace Efficiency Mo s t 'r th e fur n ace m od els o n the market have an efficie n cy of 80% AFUE or higher.

16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Source: GAMA database 2000

ee--,1 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 AFUE Why does the market prefer 80% over 78%? ® 

### ® What design differences exist between those two levels?

Market Assessent 070501 b 8