Residential Furnaces and Boilers

MA ET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

Mark Kendall

(kendall .rnark@adlittle. com)

Arthur D. Little, Inc.

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Residential Furnaces and Boilers

July 17, 2001

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02DD
Market Assessment

Overview

information collected during the Market and Technology

Assessment is fu ndamental to several downstream analyses.

Market

Tech nology

Assessment

Screenin Analysis

National Energy Savings

Manufacturer Impact

Analysis

Firms and industry structure

Product characteristics

H istorical shi pments

Non-regulatory incentives

Reg ional differences

Market Assessent 070601 b 1

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02DD
Ma rket Assessment

Information Sources

ft.-T 7-11

The Department is currently gathering information from the

following sources:

US DOE BTS Core Databook, 2000

US DOE Residential Energy Consumption Survey, 1997

US Census Industrial Reports, 2000

Appliance Magazine, 2000

SEC 10-K Annual Reports

GAMA Statistical Highlights, 2000

GAMA Database, 2000

CEC Database, 2000

"Market for Ducted Warm Air Central Heating", BSRIA, 1997

"US Market for Hydronic Heating and Burners", BSRIA, 1998

Interviews with manufacturers

Should the t consider additional sources?

Are the stakeholders wil l i ng provide more detailed

information?

Market Assessent 070501 b

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02DD
Market Assessment

Specific Topics

The market assessment raises several important questions.

® Should the Department consider regional differences in

product distribution or use. If so, which ones?

• What assumptions regarding the impact of non-regulatory

initiatives (e . g . Energy Star, utility rebates) should DOE use in

the analysis?

® Are there any impending changes in the traditional 3-step

distribution chain of which the Department should be aware?

Market Assessent070501 b 3

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02DD
i

Product Classes

Proposed Product Classes

Separate classes of furnaces and boilers can be established in

order to accommodate differences in product efficiency and

preserve consumer utility.

® Are the following classes appropriate?

Gas furnaces (Weatherized, Non-weatherized)

Oil fu rnaces (Weatherized, Non-weatherized)

Mobile home furnaces (Gas, Oil)

Hot water boilers (Gas, Oil)

Steam boilers (Gas, Oil)

Combination space/water heating a ppliance (Gas, Oil)

Could some c lasses be consolidated for analytical

purposes?® (e.g. consider weatherized and non-weatherized

furnaces together, applying a factor to correct for test

procedure differences.)

MarketAssessent 070501 b 4

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02DD
Baseli ne Models

Overview

The Department defines baseline model characteristics to se rve

the basis for the analysis.

®

Includes capacity, configuration, efficiency, and features

® Usually based on the most commonly sold minimum efficiency

product in each product class.

® Serves as the basis for cost and performance estimates that are

intended to represent the "typical" product

Market Assessent 070601 b 5

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02DD
ased m the market assessment and input from GAMA, the

Department suggests using the following characteristics to defi ne

baseli ne furnaces and boilers.

Furnace

- Input rating : 75 kBtuh (gas)

105 kBtuh (oil)

- Upflow

- 78% AFUE

- Induced draft

- Electronic ignition

• Are these features appropriate? Should other features should be added?

• Are mutliple baseline units needed within a class?

• Should the Department define baseline products for other classes or is it

possible to extrapolate the results to those classes?

® Since, for a given input rating, rated output will increase as efficiency

increases, should we just allow the output to increase or should we adjust

the input capacity downward to maintain constant output?

Market Assessent070501 b 6

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02DD
I

Baseli ne Models

Product Capacity (Input Rating)

Residential boilers range higher in input rating than furnaces.

Boilers +Z)UU I Furnaces

Source: GAMA database 2000.

Input Rating (kBtu/hr)

30 60 90 120 150 180

Input Rating (kBtu/hr)

210

® Why is this so?

® Should the baseline capacity change over time due to trends

toward larger homes or toward "tighter" building envelopes.

MarketAssessent 070501 b 7

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02DD
Baseli ne Models

Furnace Efficiency

Most 'r the furnace models on the market have an efficie ncy

of 80% AFUE or higher.

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

Source: GAMA database 2000

ee--,1

75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

AFUE

® Why does the market prefer 80% over 78%?

® What design differences exist between those two levels?

MarketAssessent 070501 b 8

EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 02DD