APPENDIX 10

- B. FULL

- F UEL

- C YCLE M ULTIPLIERS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10

- B.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ............................... 10

- B

- 2 10

- B.2 METHODOLOGY

................................ ................................ .............................. 10

- B

- 2 10

- B.3 FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE ENERGY MULTIPL IERS

................................ ............. 10

- B

- 4

LIST OF TAB LES

Table 10

- B.2.1 Dependence of F ull

- F uel

- C ycle Parameters on A nnual E nergy O utlook Inputs

................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 10

- B

- 4 Table 10

- B.3.1 Upstream Energy Multipliers (Based on A nnual E nergy O utlook 2014) 10

- B

- 4

10

- B

- iAPPENDIX 10

- B. FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE MULTIPLIERS

10

- B.1 I NTRODUCTION

This appendix summarizes the methods used to calculate full

- fuel

- cycle (FFC) energy savings expected to result from amended standards. The FFC measure includes point

- of

- use (site) energy, the energy losses associated with generation, transmission, and dist ribution of electricity, and the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. The U.S. Department of Energy’s ( DOE’s ) traditional approach encompasse s only site energy and the energy losses associated with gene ration, transmission, and distribution of electricity. However, p er DOE’s 2011 Statement of Policy for Adopting Full Fuel Cycle Analyses , DOE now uses FFC measures of energy use and emissions in its energy conservation standards analyses. 1 This appendix summarizes the methods used to incorporate the FFC impacts into the analysis.

This analysis uses several different terms for “ energy use. ” The physical sources of
energy are primary fuels such as coal, natural gas, liquid fuels, and the like . Primary energy is equal to the heat content
, in British thermal units ( Btu )
, of a primary fuel that is used to provide an end

- use service , such as, water heating

. a Site energy use is the energy consumed at the point

of

- use in a building or industrial process. Where natural gas or petroleum fuels are consumed at a site
, such as in a boiler , site energy is identical to primary energy ‒ both are equal to the heat content of the primary fuel consumed

. E lectricity is considered site energy and measured in kilowatt hours ( kWh )

. b In this case
, the primary energy is equal to the amount of primary energy required to generate and deliver the site electricity. c This primary energy is calculated by multiplyin g the site kWh times the site

- to

- power plant energy

- use factor

, addressed in chapter 10. For the FFC analysis, the upstream energy use is defined as the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing a primary fuel. FFC energy use is the sum of primary energy at the site or power plant plus upstream energy use.

Both primary fuels and electricity are used in upstream activities. The treatment of electricity in FFC analysis must distinguish between ele ctricity generated by fossil fuels and uranium, and electricity generated from renewable fluxes ( e.g., wind, solar and hydro power ). For the former, the upstream fuel cycle impacts are derived based on the amount of fuel consumed at the power plant. For the latter, no fuel per se is used, so there is no upstream component.

10

- B.2 METHODOLOGY

The mathematical approach to FFC is addressed in the paper A Mathematical Analysis of Full Fuel Cycle Energy Use and details about the fuel production chain analysis are prese nted in

a A British thermal unit is the amount of energy needed to cool or heat one pound of water by one degree Fahrenheit.
b A kilowatt

- hour is a unit of energy equivalent to one kilowatt (1 kW) of power expended for one hour. A kilowatt hour is a unit of energy equal to 1,000 watt

- hours . T he total energy in kilowatt

- hours is th e product of the power in kilowatts and the time in hours. 1 kWh = 3412 Btu.

c Quad is a unit of energy, short for quadrillion , where 1 quad = 10 15 Btu or 293.1 billion kWh

. 10

- B

- 2the paper Projections of Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics

. 2

,

. 3 The text below provides a brief summary of the methods used to calculate F FC energy.

When all energy quantities are normalized to the same units, the FFC energy use can be represented as the product of the primary energy use and an FFC multiplier . The FFC multiplier is defined mathematically as a function of a set of parameter s representing the energy intensity and material losses at each production stage. These parameters depend only on physical data, so the calculations do not require any assumptions about prices or other economic data. While in general these parameter value s may vary by geographic region, for this analysis national averages are used.

In the notation below, the indices x and y are used to indicate fuel type, with x = c for coal,

x = g for natural gas, x = p for petroleum fuels, x = u for uranium
, and x = r for renew able fluxes. The fuel cycle parameters are:

• a x is the quantity of fuel x burned per unit of electricity output, on average, for grid electricity. The calculation of a x includes a factor to account for transmission and distribution system losses.

• b y is the amount of grid electricity used in production of fuel y , in MWh per physical unit of fuel y

.

• c xy is the amount of fuel x consumed in producing one unit of fuel y

.

• q x is the heat content of fuel x ( MB tu /physical unit)

• z x (s) is the emissions intensity for fuel x (mass of pollutant s per physical unit of x )

The parameters are calculated as a function of time with an annual time step; hence, a time series of annual values is used to estimate the FFC energy and emissions sa vings in each year of the analysis period. Fossil fuel quantities are converted to energy units using the heat content factors q x . To convert electricity in kWh to primary energy units, on

- site electricity consumption is multiplied by the power sector prim ary energy use factor indicated in chapter 10. The power sector primary energy use factor is defined as the ratio of the total primary energy consumption by the electric power sector
, in quads, divided by the total electricity generation in each year.

Th e FFC multiplier is a dimensionless number denoted μ (mu). The upstream component of the energy savings is proportional to ( μ

- 1). A separate multiplier is calculated for each fuel used on site. The fuel type is denoted by a subscript on the multiplier μ

. A multiplier is also calculated for electricity reflecting the fuel mix used in its generation.

For DOE’s appliance standards energy savings estimates, the FFC analysis methodology is designed to make use of data and projections published in the Annual E nergy Outlook (AEO). Table 10

- B.2.1 provides a summary of the AEO data used as inputs to the different parameter calculations. The AEO does not provide all the information needed to estimate total energy use in the fuel production chain. The Projections of Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy and Emission s Metrics
paper describes the additional data sources used to complete the analysis. 3 However, the time

10

- B

- 3dependence in the FFC multipliers arises exclusively from variables taken from the AEO. The FFC analysis for commercial packaged boilers used data from AEO 201 4

. 4

Table 10

- B.2.1 Dependence of FFC Parameters on AEO Inputs Parameter Fuel AEO Table Variables

q x all Conversion Factors MMB TU per physical unit

a x all Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions Generation by fuel type Energy Consumption by Sector and Source Electric power sector energy consumption

b c , c nc , c pc coal Coal Production by Region and Type Production by coal type and sulfur content

b

p , c np , c pp petroleum Refining Industry Energy Consumption Refining only energy use Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition Crude supply by source International Liquids Supply and Disposition Crude oil imports Oil and Gas Supply Crude oil domestic production

c nn natural
gas Oil and Gas Supply US dry gas production Natural Gas Supply, Disposition and Prices Pipeline, lease and plant fuel

z

x all Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices and Emissions Power sector emissions

10

- B.3 FULL

- F UEL

- C YCLE E NERGY M ULTIPLIERS

Upstream energy multipliers are presented in Table 10

- B.3.1 for selected years. For years after 2040 (the last year in the AEO ), DOE maintained the 2040 value

. The multipliers are applied to site energy. The multiplier for electricity reflects the sha res of various primary fuels in total electricity generation over the forecast period.

Table 10

- B.3.1 Upstream Energy Multipliers (Based on AEO 201 4 ) 20 19 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity 0.044 0.045 0.046 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.047 Natural Gas 0.109 0.111 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 Petroleum Fuels 0.176 0.176 0.174 0.172 0.170 0.170 0.170

10

- B

- 4REFERENCES

1. United States

- Office of the Federal Register, Federal Register, Volume 76, Number 160, August 18, 2011 . UNT Digital Library. Washington D.C. .

2. Coughlin, K., A Mathematical Analysis of Full Fuel Cycle Energy Use

. Energy , 2012. 37(1): pp. 698

- 708

< http://www.sciencedirect .com/science/article/pii/S0360544211006803 >

3. Coughlin, K., Projections of Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics , 2013. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Report No. LBNL

- 6025E.

4. U.S. Department of Energy

- Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 with Projections to 2040 , 2014. Washington, DC.

< http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/ >

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- 5