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 U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

 + + + + +

 CLEAN AIR SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY COMMITTEE

 (CASAC)

 NOX & SOX SECONDARY NAAQS REVIEW PANEL

 + + + + + 

 MEETING

 + + + + +

 FRIDAY,

 APRIL 2, 2010

 + + + + +

 The meeting convened at 8:30 a.m.

in Salons A, B, & C of the Marriott at

Research Triangle Park, 4700 Guardian Drive,

Durham, North Carolina, Armistead Russell,

Chair, presiding.

MEMBERS PRESENT:

ARMISTEAD RUSSELL, Chair

PRAVEEN AMAR

LAURAINE CHESTNUT

CHARLES T. DRISCOLL, JR.

PAUL J. HANSON
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MEMBERS PRESENT (Cont.):

RUDOLF HUSAR

DALE JOHNSON*

NARESH KUMAR

MYRON MITCHELL

RICHARD L. POIROT

KATHLEEN WEATHERS*

SCIENCE ADVISORY BOARD STAFF:

KYNDALL BARRY, Designated Federal Officer

*Participating via teleconference

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 1 C-O-N-T-E-N-T-S

 2

 3 Reconvene the Panel Meeting 

 4 Ms. Kyndall Barry . . . . . . . . . . . .4

 5 Discussion of Draft PA Responses 

 6 Dr. Ted Russell and Panel . . . . . . . .4

 7 Wrap up

 8 Dr. Ted Russell . . . . . . . . . . . .249

 9 Adjournment 

 10 Ms. Kyndall Barry . . . . . . . . . . .250

 11

 12

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1 P-R-O-C-E-E-D-I-N-G-S

2 8:32 a.m. 

3 MS. BARRY: Okay, we are right at

4 the 8:30 time and aiming on an on time start

5 for this second day of the NOX and SOX

6 Secondary NAAQS Review Panel Meeting. So, I

7 would ask that everyone please join us at the

8 table so that we can go ahead and get started.

9 Thank you.

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: All right. Good

11 morning. Yes, if we can get folks to the

12 table. In front of everybody you should see,

13 and also maybe -- Are we going to try

14 projecting?

15 And also in front of you should be

16 you are going to see the letter that we

17 drafted overnight and this morning that

18 summarizes our review of the first draft of

19 the policy assessment.

20 So what I would like to do is go

21 through this. And one of the things to keep

22 in mind is that the administration or the EPA,

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1 not the administration, the EPA has requested

2 that we prioritize our recommendations just so

3 that they will know what we think are the

4 things that they really must do, should do,

5 etcetera, given the limited time.

6 So as we go through this, if

7 people can help identify what they think are

8 the primary or the priority items, action

9 items, let's try to indicate those as we go.

10 So with that, to the letter. And

11 Kyndall is trying to bring it up but we can

12 start going through it.

13 What I am going to do is ask the

14 leads again to cover their sections, which

15 means I have to remember who the leads are. 

16 Well, I am the lead on the first one so while

17 we bring up the thing --

18 So the first paragraph is just our

19 standard boilerplate. So going on the second

20 paragraph, the general idea on the second

21 paragraph, as you read through it is to say

22 that we found that the first draft of the PA
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1 has started to lay the framework for a

2 scientifically reasoned secondary standard

3 that integrates the two criteria pollutants.

4 That we found portions to be

5 incomplete, which of course they knew coming

6 in, and some of the other parts rough. And I

7 could be more specific. I think the ones we

8 thought were the most rough at this point were

9 chapters five and six, though there were other

10 sections, too. So I wasn't going to be

11 specific on that one.

12 In general, we are supportive of

13 the APPI approach and how it integrates the

14 effects of NOX and SOX on aquatic

15 acidification. And then the comment as was

16 pointed out yesterday, since I found no better

17 place to put it, just one sentencing saying

18 that we think the g(.) term should be

19 expanded. At least my take was is that we

20 didn't think that it needed to not have the

21 two terms more explicitly.

22 Comments? Charlie.

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1 MEMBER DRISCOLL: So is it

2 possible to just make that a little bit more

3 explicit by just saying to show the nitrogen

4 cycling and background cation weathering

5 supply terms separately? See what I am

6 saying? It is less phrase to show the two

7 terms just to say what those two terms are.

8 Yes, to show -- I would phrase it

9 is to show the two or excuse me. To show the

10 nitrogen cycling and background cation supply

11 terms explicitly.

12 MEMBER WEATHERS: Or maybe you

13 could just say weathering.

14 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Weathering. We

15 could say weathering, if that is preferred.

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So background

17 cation weathering term?

18 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Yes; however you

19 want to phrase it. Just to make it explicit

20 what those two terms are.

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Sounds good.

22 MEMBER HUSAR: The dot, do we need

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1 the dot there? What does that dot -- which

2 convention?

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: It basically

4 means all sorts of things can go there.

5 MEMBER HUSAR: Yes, that is what I

6 mean.

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: But they have

8 got it so -- In the letter we can remove it,

9 too. And hopefully the idea is that the g(.)

10 term gets lost.

11 MEMBER HUSAR: But whoever reads

12 it, you know, --

13 MEMBER AMAR: I would think -- 

14 MEMBER JOHNSON: This is Dale.

15 MEMBER AMAR: -- you know, this

16 reference to g(.) term maybe needs to come a

17 little later.

18 MEMBER JOHNSON: Sorry if I am re19 treading old ground but --

20 MEMBER AMAR: I think it is too

21 early in the morning to --

22 MEMBER JOHNSON: -- I couldn't log

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1 in yesterday but a couple of things, points I

2 wanted to make.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Who is on the

4 line? Dale?

5 MEMBER JOHNSON: Hello? Yes, it

6 is Dale.

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay, what is

8 up?

9 MEMBER JOHNSON: Are you there?

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

11 MEMBER JOHNSON: I hope I am not

12 re-treading old ground. I probably am but I

13 couldn't log in yesterday. But a couple of

14 points that I hope came up and that was the

15 really big differences between the factors

16 affecting Nitrogen and sulfur retention in the

17 ecosystem and how that plays into the model

18 and the sensitivity. Because nitrogen is

19 controlled almost entirely by biology. And

20 the biological controlled sulfur retention is

21 minimal because there is every little

22 biological demand for sulfur comparatively.
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1 So the two have the same type of

2 effects, once they become acidifying but until

3 the point where they are mobile in the system,

4 they are entirely different, entirely

5 different criteria.

6 I don't know if that plays into

7 the model or that g(.) term or what. Of

8 course I missed the discussion.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay, you

10 haven't missed it this morning in that we are

11 just starting.

12 MEMBER JOHNSON: I know. But

13 yesterday I don't know what came up. I

14 couldn't log in.

15 DR. HUBBELL: Would you like me to

16 answer, Dr. Russell?

17 MEMBER JOHNSON: Maybe it is too

18 late to get into this sort of stuff. If so,

19 that's all right.

20 MEMBER WEATHERS: Dale, I think

21 some of those comments show up later on in the

22 letter in answer to specific charges.

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1 MEMBER JOHNSON: Okay.

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So Dale, do you

3 have both? Do you have the letter and the

4 answer to the specific charges?

5 MEMBER JOHNSON: Well I have what

6 Paul sent last night and --

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Do you have --

8 MEMBER JOHNSON: -- I have other

9 things.

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: -- what Kyndall

11 sent this morning?

12 MEMBER JOHNSON: Yes.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

14 MEMBER JOHNSON: But I only see

15 one thing there.

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: In terms of?

17 MEMBER JOHNSON: I see the letter.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: But there

19 should be some responses to the charge

20 questions attached to that.

21 MEMBER JOHNSON: Oh, yes. Down

22 the list.

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1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

2 MEMBER JOHNSON: Yes, they are. 

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

4 MEMBER JOHNSON: Sorry. It is a

5 little early here for me.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: We understand.

7 So Praveen, actually I am game to

8 move it somewhere else. It is just it would

9 be a stand-alone sentence. I didn't see where

10 else to put it.

11 MEMBER JOHNSON: Oh, that's okay. 

12 I am just --

13 MEMBER AMAR: We might come to a

14 point of place as we go over this letter

15 because we also are mentioning that they have

16 got to handle ammonia differently, too. So I

17 think maybe when we talk about this equation -

18 -

19 MEMBER WEATHERS: Praveen, could

20 you talk into the mike, please?

21 MEMBER AMAR: Yes, I would think

22 we have to say something about g(.) but where

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1 we say it, placement, I think it will be clear

2 while we go through this.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. So that

4 is your job is to figure out a better place

5 for this sentence.

6 MEMBER AMAR: But it is important. 

7 I think maybe not this early in the letter. 

8 That is what I was saying.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Don't take it

10 out. Just highlight it.

11 Third paragraph. There we go. 

12 This paragraph has to do with our

13 recommendation that they need to more

14 comprehensively treat uncertainty. And then

15 also to add a sensitivity analysis.

16 My thought in writing this

17 paragraph was again that the uncertainty

18 chapter should be a stand-alone chapter but I

19 think the sensitivity analysis on their API

20 equation really should come as part of Chapter

21 5 to better explore its sensitivities right

22 when they bring it up.
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1 I should also say that hopefully

2 on Chapter 5 they don't end sort of on the --

3 right when they bring up that equation and

4 explain it more thoroughly.

5 MEMBER MITCHELL: And I thought we

6 talked about the developing of this completely

7 separate chapter.

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Microphone.

9 MEMBER MITCHELL: Sorry. I

10 thought we talked about developing a separate

11 chapter just based upon sensitivity analysis. 

12 Does that preclude that or would this just be

13 introducing that?

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay, this is

15 something -- The separate chapter was going to

16 be the uncertainty analysis.

17 MEMBER MITCHELL: Okay.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: But if you

19 want, I was just thinking and I am open to go

20 either way on this one is that I thought that

21 it might actually be good to do the

22 sensitivity -- Who is calling me at this hour?

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1 It might be good to have the

2 sensitivity analysis at the same time that

3 they present the AAPI equation. What do

4 people think?

5 It could also just refer to the

6 sensitivity analysis as part of the

7 sensitivity -- The sensitivity analysis is the

8 first part of the uncertainty analysis. I am

9 game either way. What do you think would be

10 most effective?

11 MEMBER HUSAR: With the

12 uncertainty.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: You want it

14 with the uncertainty?

15 MEMBER HUSAR: Yes. It is part of

16 -- I mean that is one part of uncertainty.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. So, --

18 MEMBER HANSON: I have one minor

19 word choice, at the risk of being too

20 specific. At least in the hard copy, it is on

21 line 43 up on the screen. I think we are in

22 the same place, I guess.

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1 We recommend that a chapter be

2 devoted to an assessment. I'm sorry. Next

3 line down.

4 We recognize that a probabilistic 

5 uncertainty analysis is likely not

6 appropriate. I think it is always

7 appropriate. I wonder if not possible is what

8 you mean.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Practical.

10 MEMBER HANSON: Practical? Okay.

11 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: You know, it is

12 probably possible in some universe.

13 MEMBER AMAR: Can I suggest one

14 thing to be parallel to Charlie's questions? 

15 Your first sentence talks about uncertainty

16 analysis. The question is, relative to the

17 conceptual design of this ecologically

18 relevant multi-pollutant standard, are their

19 potential implication for the secondary

20 standard. I think I mentioned that yesterday. 

21 You have got to say what exactly you are

22 looking for, not just the uncertainty but the

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1 implications of the uncertainties and how the

2 secondary standard will be --

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So this would

4 go right after analysis. Right?

5 MEMBER AMAR: Yes.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And so do you

7 want to give the words to Kyndall?

8 MEMBER AMAR: Yes. Uncertainty

9 analysis of the proposed approach, in terms of

10 its implication for the secondary standards. 

11 I am paraphrasing the question as it was asked

12 of us.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So then also

14 let's -- we are supposed to remove. This can

15 first be presented in Chapter 5. It would

16 just be sensitivity analysis of the AAPI

17 equation should be performed. The whole

18 sentence out.

19 Naresh?

20 MEMBER KUMAR: So I guess what we

21 just added what Praveen just added, are we

22 saying that implications for the secondary
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1 standard is not practical at this time or do

2 we want them to?

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: No, no, no. 

4 Actually you put that in the wrong place. It

5 should go right after the first analysis.

6 MEMBER AMAR: Yes, at the end of -

7 -

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So line 43, the

9 first word.

10 MEMBER AMAR: That is where it

11 should go.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: That is where.

13 MEMBER KUMAR: And also I guess

14 continuing the sentence, line 45, when you say

15 a more qualitative approach is reasonable,

16 isn't the sensitivity analysis trying to

17 quantify the effect actually?

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, actually

19 this is where putting the sensitivity analysis

20 into the uncertainty analysis sort of blends

21 the two. And the sensitivity analysis can be

22 quite quantitative.

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1 MEMBER AMAR: And what you are

2 saying is that we don't want common approaches

3 here. Right? But still --

4 MEMBER KUMAR: Yes, but still -- I

5 mean the sensitivity analysis part of

6 uncertainty analysis and it is going to give

7 some quantitative information.

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So actually we

9 could just kill anything after the first

10 comma.

11 MEMBER AMAR: What about instead

12 of saying a more qualitative approach is

13 reasonable, what if you say a less rigorous

14 approach? That still allows quantitative but

15 not as rigorous as this probabilistic

16 uncertainty analysis.

17 MEMBER KUMAR: Well I think just

18 leaving it at this point, too, because we are

19 not asking them to do a probabilistic

20 analysis. We don't have to get into whether

21 it is rigorous or not. I think whatever is

22 done should be rigorous.

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1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Paul?

2 MEMBER HANSON: Just at the end of

3 that paragraph, we are sort of endorsing the

4 use of the VNOy and the VNOx terms, the way it

5 is written. And I thought it was quite clear

6 yesterday that people didn't like that

7 terminology.

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Oh, in terms

9 that we want a different --

10 MEMBER HANSON: Yes, use something

11 else. Don't substitute V for which people

12 associate with deposition velocity with these

13 terms, which means something else. Was that

14 not a --

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, we are

16 recommending that they change that but we

17 haven't told them what to. So how else do we

18 refer to it in the letter? What are currently

19 the VNOy and --

20 MEMBER HANSON: Yes, I mean, I

21 think it is open to their creativity but it

22 could be something else, anything else.

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1 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Could we put in

2 parentheses after indicating those terms the

3 panel recommends that these terms be changed

4 for clarity?

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

6 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Also, there is a

7 typo there. Potential "rages". "Ranges,"

8 right? Is that the last line?

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Whichever you

10 choose. I could be how the panel thinks.

11 MEMBER POIROT: Seems like the

12 report itself was proposing to use a different

13 terminology than they had previously. I

14 forget what it was but calling it --

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: A deposition

16 ratio?

17 MEMBER POIROT: Ratio, yes.

18 MEMBER AMAR: But that could be

19 DTR.

20 MEMBER POIROT: I don't think we

21 need to tell them what to change it to.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And I would say
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1 the panel recommends the V terms, in

2 parenthesis be explicit which terms we are

3 talking about.

4 MEMBER KUMAR: You mean in quotes?

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: What?

6 MEMBER KUMAR: Did you mean V in

7 quotes?

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, just to

9 say that it is the "V" that is ambiguous or

10 misleading.

11 Other comments on this one? Next

12 paragraph.

13 This paragraph deals with wanting

14 a more comprehensive evaluation of CMAQ being

15 shown. In particular, how well CMAQ simulates

16 deposition.

17 MEMBER POIROT: Just I was

18 thinking, Ted, the end of that preceding

19 paragraph might be the place for Praveen to

20 move the g(.) sentence to.

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

22 MEMBER WEATHERS: The last phrase

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1 in that paragraph is a little awkward. And

2 then the uncertainty chapters should use this

3 information in assessing uncertainties as

4 well?

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Say that again,

6 Kathy?

7 MEMBER WEATHERS: The last phrase

8 in that paragraph is a little bit awkward.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: The "and can be

10 used to define the potential ranges?" Oh, the

11 next one.

12 MEMBER WEATHERS: Oh no, sorry. I

13 thought we were on the next.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: We are. 

15 MEMBER WEATHERS: So it is the

16 phrase, "and then the uncertainty chapters

17 should use this information in assessing

18 uncertainties as well." I don't have a really

19 good fix at the moment but it is kind of

20 awkward.

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. And

22 let's -- Before getting to that, is everyone

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1 comfortable with what it is trying to say even

2 though I have put it rather awkwardly? 

3 Naresh?

4 MEMBER KUMAR: How about the

5 uncertainty chapter should include this

6 information in overall assessment of

7 uncertainty?

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So you can get

9 rid of then the uncertainty chapter should use

10 this information. Okay. But people are

11 onboard with what it is saying?

12 MEMBER KUMAR: Yes.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Myron.

14 MEMBER MITCHELL: I would suggest

15 that within this paragraph on line nine

16 instead of saying model quantities, I would

17 say model estimates.

18 And then the next sentence, "Such

19 estimates should include the components for

20 both wet deposition and dry deposition

21 fluxes." It is a little confusing as it is

22 right now, Ted.

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1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. Should

2 include the components --

3 MEMBER MITCHELL: Of wet

4 deposition and dry deposition fluxes. Right? 

5 You have a whole bunch of levels of

6 uncertainty depending on concentration

7 estimates versus the --

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. Wet and

9 dry deposition fluxes.

10 MEMBER MITCHELL: Right, that will

11 do it.

12 MEMBER WEATHERS: I like that.

13 MEMBER MITCHELL: And get rid of

14 then and simulated concentrations of --

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Well I think

16 actually, I am game to get rid of it but

17 before you get rid of it, I think you want to

18 have those as well because they, in terms of

19 estimating the, relating the deposition to the

20 concentrations, at least I would want to know

21 that the concentrations are being simulated

22 relatively well as well.
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1 MEMBER MITCHELL: I guess I

2 thought that was implicit. Such estimates

3 include the components, which include both

4 concentration --

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay, yes.

6 MEMBER MITCHELL: That was my --

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I guy that.

8 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes, I agree

9 with Myron.

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I buy that.

11 MEMBER MITCHELL: Yes, but get rid

12 of that.

13 MEMBER KUMAR: Should we include

14 that in parentheses after components was

15 clear?

16 MEMBER MITCHELL: We could do that

17 easily. No problem.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. Other

19 questions or comments on this paragraph?

20 MEMBER HUSAR: Is that deposition

21 fluxes or maybe rates?

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Fluxes or

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1 rates?

2 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes. It would

3 be a flux of a deposition.

4 MEMBER HUSAR: Well, flux is per

5 unit area. Rate is overall.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. I see

7 what you are saying but you know, usually the

8 measurement and the simulations and the

9 measurements, there is --

10 MEMBER HUSAR: Depending on where

11 you use it makes no difference. But they are

12 two different concepts. But either one of

13 them is okay if that is how those rates are

14 exposed. So, no problem.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I am game to go

16 either way on that one.

17 MEMBER HUSAR: If that is a term

18 that is used in the report then we should use

19 flux.

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I think they

21 do. We can check that out. They actually may

22 use rates in the report.

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1 Okay. Next --

2 MEMBER POIROT: So in the g(.) 

3 sentence, we can take out the --

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Oh, yes.

5 MEMBER POIROT: We could say just

6 the panel also recommends, instead of "we do

7 recommend however."

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes. 

9 MEMBER HUSAR: And if we use "V"

10 in quotes, then we could put "G" in quotes on

11 that.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes. 

13 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Should we

14 clarify that a little bit more and say the "g"

15 term of the whatever it is, AAPI equation, so

16 they shifted gears a little bit here?

17 MEMBER AMAR: We might say natural

18 background term or natural background ANC

19 term. That is what "g" is.

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So it would be

21 the natural background --

22 MEMBER AMAR: That is right here. 

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1 Define natural background ANC. It has got two

2 more components.

3 MEMBER HANSON: I like "G term". 

4 I like leaving it as the "G term" better

5 simply because the primary point that we

6 brought up yesterday was that there is a lot

7 of complexity in the "G term" and throwing it

8 all into the phrase "natural background"

9 doesn't capture that.

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

11 MEMBER HANSON: Meaning, we want

12 them to fix that.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: All right,

14 moving on to the next paragraph, line 15. 

15 Yes?

16 MEMBER HANSON: I like the first

17 sentence and I have suggestions for the second

18 sentence and then --

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Give it to us.

20 MEMBER HANSON: -- an addition.

21 So I will just read what I think

22 would make a better second sentence. The PA
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1 should include a succinct discussion of

2 potential benefits from NOx deposition to N3 limited ecosystems, period.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay, the

5 panel, the PA should --

6 MEMBER HANSON: The PA should

7 include a succinct discussion --

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Hold on. Slow

9 down. Of potential benefits?

10 MEMBER HANSON: Of potential

11 benefits from NOx deposition to N-limited

12 ecosystems.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Potential

14 benefits of NOx to N-limited ecosystems.

15 MEMBER HANSON: And then you would

16 delete the rest and then I have a replacement

17 sentence, --

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

19 MEMBER HANSON: -- which is a

20 little long. So you might listen to it before

21 typing it in.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Oh, she will

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1 type. We will listen.

2 MEMBER HANSON: And this reflects

3 me, obviously. And you guys will have to

4 decide whether you agree.

5 "The panel would like to see a

6 quantification of the percent of U.S. lands

7 likely to be enhanced by N-fertilization,

8 those adversely impacted by N-enrichment, and

9 those largely insensitive to either effect

10 under current levels of input."

11 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Quantification

12 of the percent of land --

13 MEMBER HANSON: Percent of U.S.

14 lands likely to be enhanced by N15 fertilization.

16 DR. HUBBELL: Can I ask for a

17 clarification on that?

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: We'll let Tina

19 finish typing and keep going.

20 DR. HUBBELL: It's just that last

21 sentence, the thing you are asking for, it is

22 not clear to us at all how we would actually

Page 32

1 proceed to do that.

2 MEMBER HANSON: Well I think that

3 is the crux of a lot of the discussion that we

4 were having is that the document is currently

5 written and based on emphasizing sensitive

6 systems. This is a sentence asking you to

7 characterize for the administrator, the public

8 and the panel, how much of the U.S. land are

9 we talking about?

10 DR. HUBBELL: Well we could do

11 probably the opposite a little better, which

12 is to say we certainly know which areas are

13 sensitive or more likely to be sensitive to

14 the adverse effects. But knowing of the

15 remaining lands which ones are likely to

16 benefit from additional NOx deposition, that

17 is not something where there is a lot of data

18 because people aren't generally looking at

19 that.

20 MEMBER MITCHELL: I agree. I

21 think that obviously that would be a nice

22 piece of information to have. But I think

Page 33

1 that the task of doing that would be immense. 

2 And therefore, just by defining the percentage

3 of sensitive land, at least keep things

4 bounded.

5 DR. HUBBELL: Yes, and we could

6 certainly do that in a much more robust way in

7 laying out what percent of the lands are

8 likely to benefit from decreases in NOx and

9 SOx but I don't know that we can say the

10 converse with as much confidence.

11 MEMBER DRISCOLL: I also have

12 concerns that there could be sort of

13 conflicting patterns and it really depends on

14 judgment. So in other words, there is

15 undoubtedly going to be carbons that keep

16 sequestration most places and that is going to

17 be viewed as positive. But then there could

18 be species changes which could be positive,

19 could be negative, depending on the

20 individual's perspective.

21 DR. HUBBELL: So just a little, if

22 you could clarify a little bit how you want it
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1 --

2 MEMBER HANSON: Well it is what

3 the panel wants to say not what I want to

4 say.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Dale?

6 MEMBER JOHNSON: Well, I think it

7 would be nice to have that. And I just don'

8 know. I kind of agree with the EPA this time,

9 believe it or not, that it would be kind of

10 difficult to do. I mean, you know

11 historically, the literature indicates that 90

12 percent of terrestrial ecosystems in Europe

13 and the U.S. and North America are nitrogen

14 deficient. But how you put that on a map, I

15 don't know. And the other thing is a growth

16 response increases may not be desirable in a

17 wilderness area, even though they are changing

18 and growth is faster. Maybe you don't want

19 anything to happen there. I don't know.

20 Certainly in commercial forests, I

21 said something the other day, yesterday on

22 nitrogen fertilization in commercial forests

Page 35

1 and atmospheric deposition can definitely

2 contribute to that. Now whether it really

3 does or not, who knows? But the numbers

4 indicate that it could. So I don't know if

5 you can go much beyond that and just say there

6 are possibilities for benefits which so far

7 haven't been really addressed but have been

8 kind of dismissed, summarily. And they really

9 need to be addressed and say well, it could

10 be.

11 I think the wording as it is now

12 is okay with me, really.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay but it is

14 gone.

15 So, I think what I am hearing is

16 we could end the PA should include a succinct

17 discussion of the potential benefits of NOx

18 deposition to N-limited ecosystems.

19 MEMBER JOHNSON: Yes. Yes, that

20 would work for me.

21 I appreciate Paul's point, though. 

22 I mean, if you actually have the information

Page 36

1 to quantify this area, you will find that a

2 very large proportion of the country would

3 find growth increases with nitrogen

4 deposition. Some people might like it. Some

5 people might not like it. But probably even

6 in the desert, you get growth increases with 

7 nitrogen deposition and we don't always like

8 it. And I am not sure how to map that.

9 MEMBER HANSON: Well I don't think

10 mapping is a particular requirement. This is

11 just my reaction to the way the document was

12 written in the first draft, where everything

13 seemed to apply to all ends.

14 MEMBER JOHNSON: Well, I agree

15 with that. You know, as you well know, I

16 totally agree.

17 MEMBER KUMAR: How about the

18 converse of what Paul was saying? I mean,

19 that is something that EPA can do. It would

20 still be useful information to know what

21 percentage of land is sensitive. So would you

22 agree to have that?

Page 37

1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Sure. I am

2 still worried that that would still kind of

3 come out as a bias in that it still emphasizes

4 the sensitive ecosystems. But as long as it

5 is put in the context of trying to reduce the

6 apparent bias in the current document, I think

7 it does, that would help.

8 Rich and then Praveen.

9 MEMBER JOHNSON: Could you repeat

10 that? I couldn't quite hear you.

11 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: What I was

12 saying that is so what Naresh said was that

13 EPA could provide the percent of land that is

14 sensitive to nitrogen deposition or adversely

15 impacted by nitrogen deposition.

16 MEMBER JOHNSON: Even that is kind

17 of tricky because you know, sensitive to acid

18 deposition in what way? I don't know.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Right.

20 MEMBER JOHNSON: I mean, growth

21 increases, not desirable, or -- it is kind of

22 tricky.
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1 I think more of a generic, here

2 are the pluses and here are the minuses

3 statement. And there are review articles,

4 many of them, that talk about the generality

5 of nitrogen deficiency you could site. You

6 know, they have been around for a long time

7 and kind of leave it at that.

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Rich?

9 MEMBER POIROT: I guess I was

10 wondering about the concept of beneficial. 

11 Does that apply to other than agricultural and

12 forestry activities? Like outside of those

13 applications, beneficial is a little bit of an

14 odd choice.

15 Outside of those applications, you

16 might include additional discussions of carbon

17 fixation or something like that. But is there

18 a concept of beneficial that is external to

19 agriculture and forestry places where people

20 can make money out of growing things faster?

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So I think, I

22 mean in terms of response to you, Rich, is we

Page 39

1 are not, I think that is one reason why we

2 killed the latter part -- that latter

3 sentence.

4 MEMBER POIROT: I don't understand

5 what the benefit to an ecosystem is --

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Oh.

7 MEMBER POIROT: -- of growing

8 faster.

9 MEMBER DRISCOLL: It can produce

10 more fish, if you want.

11 MEMBER POIROT: It could be

12 agriculturally this is --

13 MEMBER DRISCOLL: You can grow

14 certain types of fish, if you like certain

15 types of fish. You know, so it is entirely a

16 judgment situation. Right?

17 MEMBER JOHNSON: Yes. So the same

18 with the growth. Some people don't want more

19 growth and commercial forestry's people do

20 want more growth. Something that is not in

21 here really at all, not hardly at all is the

22 effects of nitrogen deposition on insect and

Page 40

1 disease. It can go in either direction. Some

2 bugs really love that high protein foliage. 

3 The more nitrogen deposition is going to make

4 him really start gobbling it up. And on the

5 other hand, it increases the vigor of the

6 vegetation to resist pest and pathogens. So

7 that is a whole other area.

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

9 MEMBER HANSON: I mean, I don't

10 think all of that is involved. I just think

11 we should remind ourselves that this is a

12 standard to protect human welfare. And human

13 welfare isn't just viewed form the ecosystem

14 perspective. It can be -- Productivity is

15 part of that mix.

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Any --

17 MEMBER AMAR: I am just having

18 trouble with the first part of that paragraph.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: That is the

20 part that Paul liked.

21 MEMBER AMAR: I know.

22 (Laughter.)

Page 41

1 MEMBER AMAR: And we are panel. 

2 So I think you know, when you say panel

3 continues to be concerned, I am not. And I

4 think what we need to say there instead of

5 that we are, because that implies there is

6 this bias which is apparent, but that is what

7 the charge, as I understand it, of EPA is. 

8 That is, to look at the adverse impacts and

9 then what to do about those sensitive areas.

10 So, I might say you know, the

11 panel acknowledges or the critical thought

12 that was the focus of this work is indeed on

13 presentation results related to adverse

14 impact.

15 I am not concerned, I would not

16 even call it apparent bias. It is simply what

17 the EPA charge, I think, is. So that is what

18 I think they are doing.

19 Now we may want to acknowledge it. 

20 That is what they are doing and they should be

21 doing some other things, too. But I think,

22 you know, what they are doing, what they are
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Page 42

1 required to do, as I see it. So I am not

2 concerned. I don't think it is an apparent

3 bias. They are doing what their mission is.

4 Now that is what I think. If you

5 want to acknowledge it but don't call it bias

6 or apparent or be concerned about it. You

7 acknowledge it, you recognize it, but then

8 move on.

9 MEMBER HUSAR: If the word

10 potential benefit could be replaced by

11 consequences of NOx enrichment, would that

12 eliminate the beneficial question.

13 MEMBER JOHNSON: Sorry, I can't

14 hear a thing.

15 MEMBER HUSAR: Well one way to

16 respond here is that instead of saying

17 potential benefits of NOx deposition, include

18 a succinct discussion on the consequences of

19 NOx enrichment, which is more neutral but it

20 still says that it is the opposite.

21 MEMBER WEATHERS: I like that

22 rephrasing.

Page 43

1 MEMBER HUSAR: No, no. Enrichment

2 is not enough.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So you are

4 shaking your head about what you just said?

5 MEMBER HUSAR: Yes.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

7 MEMBER HUSAR: I said I disagree

8 with myself.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. When you

10 are done with the discussion, you can --

11 (Laughter.)

12 MEMBER HUSAR: I will let you know

13 the outcome.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: What was that?

15 MEMBER HUSAR: I will let you know

16 the outcome of my discussion.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

18 MEMBER AMAR: Seriously, the first

19 sentence. I mean --

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, I see what

21 you are saying. And I am just -- if the

22 majority of the panel thinks we are concerned

Page 44

1 about apparent bias and those are too strong

2 words, then you know, I mean, I am the

3 minority but if many of us don't think that

4 sentence kind of captures what you are trying

5 to do --

6 MEMBER DRISCOLL: So Praveen, do

7 you have some suggested alternative wording

8 besides bias?

9 MEMBER AMAR: I mean I did suggest

10 that panel acknowledges the focus of this REA

11 on adverse impacts and then go on to say what

12 you are saying. Maybe they should do some

13 other things, too like --

14 MEMBER JOHNSON: I can't hear. 

15 I'm sorry. Not a word.

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So you want to

17 -- 

18 MEMBER AMAR: Okay, I was saying

19 panel acknowledges that the focus of this PA

20 is on adverse impacts and NOx and SOx

21 deposition. I mean, we acknowledge it. That

22 is what I am saying. I don't want to say --

Page 45

1 MEMBER JOHNSON: Well we can

2 acknowledge that but I don't agree with it. 

3 I think it is, like I said the other day, I

4 think that if you focus on only the negative,

5 then somebody at a higher level is going to

6 focus on the whole picture, both sides of it. 

7 Somebody has to do it.

8 I just don't -- I don't see the

9 logic of focusing only on one side of an

10 issue, if this is supposed to be a scientific

11 document. I don't understand that.

12 MEMBER AMAR: So I think that the

13 answer to that may be right after this

14 sentence where we say we acknowledge the focus

15 of this document on adverse impacts. Then

16 what I think what language was being suggested

17 but it should also look at other things. I

18 don't have the right words but I think it says

19 we recognize it but you have got to do some

20 other things, which is saying we are concerned

21 and you have apparent bias.

22 And I am thinking most probably
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1 they are doing what they are supposed to do

2 under their charge.

3 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Does it help if

4 we add adverse impacts in deposition and

5 sensitive ecosystems? I kind of like where

6 Praveen has gone with this.

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

8 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes. If we can

9 --

10 MEMBER JOHNSON: Well if that is

11 what -- That gets to the philosophical

12 question of what are you trying to protect? 

13 Are you going to protect the very sensitive

14 ecosystems and regulate for that or is it

15 going to be more of the weighted average over

16 the whole country type of thing? And I don't

17 know the answer to that.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So what if we

19 do it, pick up as you see in front of you

20 except for those, I don't think the people on

21 the phone can see this so I will say it. The

22 panel acknowledges the focus of the PA is on

Page 47

1 the adverse impacts of NOx and SOx deposition

2 in sensitive ecosystems. 

3 Now what I would propose is that

4 then we go "However, the PA should include a

5 succinct discussion of potential benefits of

6 NOx deposition to N-limited ecosystems.

7 MEMBER JOHNSON: I will buy that,

8 yes.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Rudy?

10 MEMBER HUSAR: Oh, I just finished

11 my discussion.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

13 MEMBER HUSAR: We came up with,

14 what about non-adverse effects?

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Oh.

16 MEMBER HUSAR: Because it becomes

17 a problem of defining what benefit is.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Right.

19 MEMBER HUSAR: But if you do know

20 how to define adverse, then whatever else is

21 out there. It is just a suggestion.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So using my

Page 48

1 southern lingo now, I like what you all came

2 up with.

3 (Laughter.)

4 MEMBER JOHNSON: Well not adverse

5 would be nothing. So I don't agree with that.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Hmm.

7 MEMBER AMAR: Why don't we just

8 drop the word non-adverse? Because we are

9 talking potential benefits right after that. 

10 So that is benefits like a non-adverse.

11 MEMBER JOHNSON: I think that is -

12 - because you are going to have adverse

13 effects or nothing implied. And you know,

14 there are potential benefits. They are there.

15 Now you know, I can be out-voted. 

16 So be it but that is my opinion. I think it

17 should be mentioned and discussed. Somebody

18 is going to bring it up besides me.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: What does the

20 panel think? Potential or adverse -- non21 adverse?

22 MEMBER HANSON: Is it the word

Page 49

1 benefits that is the problem for some people?

2 MEMBER JOHNSON: It seems to be.

3 MEMBER HANSON: Can you substitute

4 the potential fertilization effects just to be

5 more -- or is that not inclusive enough?

6 MEMBER MITCHELL: I would just

7 take off potential.

8 MEMBER JOHNSON: That would work.

9 MEMBER MITCHELL: We know what

10 these are really. Potential -- it says

11 discussion of benefits of NOx. I think that

12 keeps the sentence in balance.

13 We can also talk about the

14 potential adverse impacts. Why have the

15 potential on one side and not the other?

16 MEMBER JOHNSON: I couldn't hear

17 you Myron. Sorry.

18 MEMBER MITCHELL: I'm sorry. 

19 Within the sentence right now, the sentence

20 reads the panel acknowledged the focus of the

21 PA is on adverse impacts of NOx and SOx

22 deposition in sensitive ecosystems. However,
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1 the PA should include a succinct discussion of

2 the benefits of NOx deposition to N-limited

3 ecosystems. I think that covers it.

4 MEMBER JOHNSON: Yes. Well you

5 could be really explicit and say since most

6 terrestrial systems are nitrogen limited,

7 increased NOx and SOx or NOx deposition is

8 likely to increase growth. This can be viewed

9 as beneficial or harmful, depending on your

10 perspective. That is the essence of it.

11 MEMBER POIROT: Which is why I

12 thought the word potential made it work better

13 than taking the word potential out. Because

14 now we are saying we know these are benefits. 

15 There is no ambiguity about the benefits.

16 MEMBER WEATHERS: Could we state

17 it with potential in there?

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: What was that?

19 MEMBER WEATHERS: Can you re-read

20 it with adding potential in?

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And before we

22 do that, Dale, hopefully you can -- can you

Page 51

1 actually email what you just said?

2 MEMBER JOHNSON: Yes, I will do

3 that right now.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Great.

5 MEMBER JOHNSON: Okay.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So even though

7 it could change greatly when we get Dale's --

8 and email it to Kyndall.

9 MEMBER JOHNSON: Okay.

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Kathy, what it

11 currently says is, "However, the PA should

12 include a succinct discussion of the potential

13 benefits of NOx deposition to N-limited

14 ecosystems." We are debating the word

15 potential.

16 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes. I like

17 leaving the word potential in and I like that

18 that sentence is short and to the point.

19 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Dale's words

20 about growth sounded more specific. I kind of

21 liked it.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, it is

Page 52

1 getting emailed in --

2 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Okay.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: -- rather than

4 try to have us remember it.

5 So we will move on and come back

6 to that after we get Dale's email.

7 Okay and here is -- and I am not

8 sure we need this paragraph. I can put it in

9 my individual comments but it was just one of

10 the things that bothered me throughout was

11 that we switched units. And unless we are

12 going to have standards written as kilograms

13 per hectare to the three halves, I would

14 prefer a more consistent set of units. And

15 then just switch into the units that are more

16 common to the specific sort of topic area in

17 the example.

18 So I am game to kill this and move

19 it to my individual comments but I was going

20 to put it up there to see what other people

21 thought.

22 MEMBER WEATHERS: I think it is

Page 53

1 important, this is also my individual

2 comments, and I would say rather than suggest,

3 I would use the word asks.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Recommends? 

5 Asks. You like asks?

6 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes, asks.

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

8 MEMBER WEATHERS: So the panel

9 asks that EPA use a consistent set of units.

10 MEMBER MITCHELL: I would agree

11 with that except I guess I am a little

12 concerned about using equivalents because we

13 have non-charged species within our analysis

14 as well.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay, moles?

16 MEMBER MITCHELL: Moles.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Mole-based?

18 MEMBER MITCHELL: Yes, that would

19 be fine. 

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So get rid of

21 equivalents and put mole-based?

22 MEMBER MITCHELL: Yes.
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1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Mole-based

2 units.

3 MEMBER JOHNSON: Okay, I have sent

4 the email so you can read it. It is a little

5 bit wordy but perhaps it could be wordsmithed

6 a little bit.

7 MEMBER AMAR: Just to be clear,

8 hectare is a unit of area and meters isn't. 

9 Are you saying square meters?

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Or you could

11 use hectares to the one-half. But the idea --

12 MEMBER AMAR: Okay. Okay, hectare

13 as a basis.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And we can get

15 rid of paren hectares. It was just that is a

16 unit that is not commonly used except in a

17 very specific domain.

18 I know some of you love hectares.

19 MEMBER HANSON: It has a main

20 meaning everywhere else but the U.S.

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: No, no. If you

22 talk to any atmospheric scientist, hectare,

Page 55

1 you know, it is sort of -- You know, and I

2 suspect if you talk to a limnologist, they are

3 not really going to know what a hectare is. 

4 It is very much when you are talking --

5 MEMBER HANSON: Critical load.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, critical

7 load, agriculture. So okay, it is one of my

8 domain things.

9 MEMBER JOHNSON: Well, I vote for

10 hectare because we use it all the time.

11 MEMBER WEATHERS: We are talking

12 about spatial scales that are in hectares and

13 kilometers.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: EPA, you have a

15 question/comment?

16 DR. SCHEFFE: Yes, just real

17 quick. Sometimes we get standard outputs out

18 of canned routines that are very easy for us

19 to bring into a report.

20 I am assuming that when you talk

21 about having standardization of the units, in

22 terms of the writing that we do and in terms

Page 56

1 of the additional figures that we generate

2 that are kind of post-processing of a lot of

3 the work.

4 In other words, are you asking

5 that we got to some of the very raw kind of

6 outputs? For instance, a map from the NEDP

7 site or the CASNET site, or a standard out put

8 from CMAQ, some of those already have in them 

9 on the x-axis and the y-axis other units.

10 So I am just asking how far you

11 want us to go here.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: My preference

13 is even the raw figures that you are getting

14 from these canned outputs, that you would be

15 able to change the scales on those.

16 MEMBER WEATHERS: Or at a minimum,

17 add in the legend conversion.

18 MEMBER MITCHELL: I think I

19 support what Kathy just said. I think that

20 could be a lot of work to go through -- I know

21 it is not easy to retain some of these

22 figures. But just in the legend you put the

Page 57

1 actual conversion, that would satisfy that.

2 DR. SCHEFFE: Okay if we could do

3 something like that in the caption there --

4 MEMBER MITCHELL: It would save a

5 lot of time.

6 DR. SCHEFFE: Okay. And that

7 will. I appreciate that.

8 MEMBER MITCHELL: Okay.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay so, we

10 have the language from Dale. So it says, so

11 for Kathy, here you go. "Increased N12 deposition to N-limited terrestrial ecosystems

13 which are dominant in the U.S. may cause

14 growth increases. These growth increases can

15 be viewed as either beneficial or adverse,

16 depending on the ecosystem management goals."

17 MEMBER WEATHERS: That seems to me

18 a little bit too specific to be in the letter,

19 the front end of the letter, and might better

20 go back in the responses to the questions. 

21 One opinion coming from a box.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I know. And
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1 the panel is, just since you can't see us, is

2 looking at it quizzically, trying to decide on

3 that.

4 MEMBER AMAR: So this sentence,

5 the one that just arrived, that is really

6 explaining the sentence before, I think,

7 trying to elucidate that. And maybe it

8 appears some other place not in this one-page

9 letter. I am just thinking the content, how

10 much you want here.

11 I mean if the point being made in

12 the third sentence is kind of being made in

13 the second sentence, if not completely, but

14 still leading to.

15 MEMBER HANSON: If you changed in

16 the second sentence benefits to impacts and

17 then followed it with this sentence, that

18 works for me. You have taken the qualitative

19 statement out of the prior sentence but then

20 you are explaining. The third sentence could

21 be shortened a little bit at the end but I

22 like what Dale has tried to do here in sort of

Page 59

1 characterizing growth increases as both of an

2 upside and a downside issue.

3 MEMBER JOHNSON: Yes, I am trying

4 to say the growth increase is probable and

5 that is a neutral statement. And it could be

6 you don't like it. It could be you like it

7 but it probably will happen.

8 MEMBER HANSON: The part that you

9 might take out is the depending on the

10 ecosystem management goals. That might sound

11 a little bit too specific and I think the

12 sentence works without it.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, remove the

14 -- And actually I would go "U.S. may cause

15 growth increases which can be viewed" or "that

16 may be viewed." Myron?

17 MEMBER MITCHELL: This might be a

18 little picky but growth in biology has many

19 different meanings.

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: What?

21 MEMBER MITCHELL: Growth to a

22 biologist has many different meanings. I

Page 60

1 think it should be made more explicit. "Can

2 cause increases in primary production."

3 MEMBER JOHNSON: That's fine. 

4 That is better.

5 MEMBER MITCHELL: It is very

6 ambiguous.

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Primary

8 production.

9 MEMBER WEATHERS: Or how about

10 production? Because the example that Charlie 

11 gave was secondary production.

12 MEMBER MITCHELL: That's okay. I

13 can live with that.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

15 MEMBER DRISCOLL: I mean, if you

16 wanted to make it more generic and this may

17 not be desirable but you could say "increase

18 nitrogen deposition to nitrogen-limited

19 ecosystems."

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

21 MEMBER DRISCOLL: You may want to

22 get rid of "which are dominant in the U.S." 

Page 61

1 And then you can apply it to aquatic systems,

2 which generally it is viewed as negative for

3 aquatic systems but from a fishery production

4 standpoint, it could be viewed as positive. 

5 In some countries it is.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

7 MEMBER JOHNSON: Yes.

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Great. So now

9 what it says, this is the last sentence. So

10 we have added one sentence. "Increased N11 deposition to N-limited ecosystems may cause

12 production increases that may be viewed as

13 either beneficial or adverse." One too many

14 mays but we will work on that one. That is a

15 wordsmithing one.

16 All right. Then the last

17 paragraph is the typical sign-off. So I would

18 actually read each one of these

19 recommendations in terms of prioritization as

20 something that really, really, really should

21 be done. That these are all top priority

22 items.
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1 MEMBER DRISCOLL: There was one

2 thing that we had talked about but hadn't

3 discussed in terms of giving some sort of

4 prioritization in terms of tasks. If we do

5 that, would we want to include a paragraph on

6 that here?

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Actually that

8 would be something that we could --

9 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Could add in

10 after we discussed it if we want to?

11 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Right. And

12 though I like the idea that that should be in

13 the letter. We just have to figure out what

14 that would be.

15 MEMBER KUMAR: I mean the

16 paragraph we just edited has kind of become

17 ambiguous to me. So may I suggest a few minor

18 edits?

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: You may.

20 MEMBER KUMAR: How about "The

21 panel acknowledged the current focus of the PA

22 is on adverse impacts of NOx and SOx

Page 63

1 deposition-sensitive ecosystems. However, the

2 PA should also include a succinct discussion

3 of other potential impacts." Because we are

4 already talking about adverse before. So I

5 think that is --

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, it makes

7 it clearer. Thank you.

8 All right, moving on to the charge

9 questions. Oh, first the executive summary

10 and Rudy, thank you. I forgot to give you my

11 marked up executive summary but actually I

12 think you captured it all when I read them. 

13 you captured the idea of what is in mind. So,

14 I was pleased. So thank you.

15 So Rudy, you want to start us off?

16 MEMBER HUSAR: The first two

17 sentences say positive but what it does well,

18 the routine sentence that "Future versions

19 will need to include the changes from the

20 input now in any other evolution," the 14-page

21 size seems too long. So suggestion to shorten

22 that.

Page 64

1 And then there is a highlight on

2 Chapter 5 on conceptual design of ecological

3 standards should be improved to effectively

4 communicate the significant new concept, such

5 as SOx NOy deposition trade-off deposition

6 load function," maybe etcetera or not or this

7 would be okay.

8 In particular, the non-trivial

9 equation for the proposed standard would need

10 to be explained more clearly, maybe or

11 possibly with the aid of a conceptual diagram

12 specifically representing the physical meaning

13 of each of the terms in the proposed AAPI

14 equation.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Any comments?

16 MEMBER DRISCOLL: I would

17 recommend changing the wording from non18 trivial to maybe complex or something like

19 that?

20 MEMBER HUSAR: Okay. I started

21 with complex but you know, everything is

22 complex. Okay but the same. Yes, that is

Page 65

1 fine. Anyone?

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I actually

3 might just remove that qualifier totally.

4 MEMBER HUSAR: Which one?

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: The complex. 

6 Just the equation for the proposed standard.

7 MEMBER HUSAR: That's fine. 

8 MEMBER DRISCOLL: That is fine. 

9 MEMBER HUSAR: Fine, no problem.

10 By the way, probably as we go,

11 this very last sentence or part that pertains

12 to 5, I was hoping to take some of that back

13 into your upcoming piece. One part of it is

14 just to highlight the same topics so that we

15 also cover it in the question ten.

16 MEMBER AMAR: I think ten, yes,

17 the basic structure of the framework.

18 MEMBER HUSAR: Yes.

19 MEMBER AMAR: That should be fine.

20 MEMBER HUSAR: Okay.

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Other comments

22 on Rudy's piece? Great. Let's hope each one
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1 goes quite so smoothly.

2 Chapter 2, Naresh.

3 MEMBER KUMAR: I guess there was

4 not much discussion on Chapter 2. So I have

5 kind of taken the comments that were said here

6 and also in the written summaries.

7 So for the first question, I think

8 we see the panel agrees that it provided a

9 good review. The summary has done well and

10 some details, I guess, need more information

11 on specific years and also there is some

12 discussion which is repetitive. So they need

13 some additional other things. So that is a

14 pretty generic comment.

15 The second comment, mainly came

16 from Paul's writing about sensitive

17 ecosystems. So, you want to read it or -- I

18 guess you all can read it and suggest any

19 changes.

20 MEMBER JOHNSON: I think it reads

21 well.

22 MEMBER HANSON: Just a question on

Page 67

1 line, well I don't know what line numbers we

2 are on now, but the second line of the first

3 paragraph at the end. How the document

4 provides results with respect to specific

5 years, I didn't understand what that meant.

6 MEMBER KUMAR: I was hoping Myron

7 would be here because he is the one who

8 provided that comment.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: He will be

10 back.

11 MEMBER DRISCOLL: So there was a

12 comment I had on this section in particular

13 but throughout the document and I mentioned it

14 yesterday, about the referencing. That there

15 seems to be in some sections there is very

16 good documentation with adequate citations and

17 in others, there are sweeping statements made

18 with few, if any, citations. I don't know if

19 that is too picky but I think it should be

20 somewhere.

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And I think

22 this is a fine place to put it is right up

Page 68

1 there.

2 DR. HUBBELL: Can I ask one

3 clarifying question on what we were just

4 discussing? In the way that the current

5 document is set up, we do a lot of cross6 referencing to sections of both ISA and the

7 Risk and Exposure Assessment document by

8 section number and so forth. And those

9 documents, of course, are very well referenced

10 and identified. Is that an acceptable process

11 and just want more of the specific references

12 to those documents or do you want us to focus

13 more on primary references to the literature?

14 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Well, as I said

15 yesterday, I don't have a good feel for what

16 is the appropriate standard. But the thing

17 that I was concerned about, and I wasn't sure

18 if there is a message being sent here was the

19 consistency. So there were some sections

20 where you didn't have any additional

21 references. You just referenced the ISA. But

22 then there are other sections where you had

Page 69

1 some referencing for other literature. And so

2 I wasn't sure whether -- I mean, it gives the

3 impression that maybe some things are better

4 known or accepted. I just wanted it to be

5 more consistent. Maybe in a policy document

6 reference to the ISA is adequately. I just

7 thought it just seemed to me that it was

8 inconsistent reading through it with the

9 approach that was used. So, I am not sure. 

10 I mean, maybe I had the wrong

11 impression but that was the impression that I

12 had reading through it.

13 DR. HUBBELL: Okay.

14 MEMBER DRISCOLL: I wasn't sure

15 whether there was some sort of an appropriate

16 strategy for referencing the document. I just

17 thought it should be done in a consistent

18 manner.

19 DR. HUBBELL: Certainly we can do

20 it whichever way you guys feel is most

21 helpful. The one thing I would note on that

22 is that in some of the sections, like
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1 especially in the section on the ecosystem

2 services and adversity and so forth, we are

3 kind of, in some cases, having to introduce

4 new literature in those cases, which is

5 probably why that section had more external

6 references than some of the other sections.

7 But I am happy to do it either

8 way. Just, you know, we had sort of a balance

9 of those chapters where we could reference the

10 ISA and REA we did and otherwise we pulled

11 from new references.

12 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Yes, so maybe it

13 was my misinterpretation of the situation. So

14 I yield to --

15 DR. HUBBELL: Certainly we need

16 more references. There is no doubt about

17 that.

18 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Whatever the

19 panel wants to do is fine.

20 DR. HUBBELL: Okay, thank you.

21 MEMBER JOHNSON: I agree with

22 Charlie. Referencing was inconsistent. I

Page 71

1 picked out in my review some specific places

2 where a general statement was made and it

3 needed a reference. I agree that there needed

4 to be more of.

5 MEMBER WEATHERS: If in fact a

6 protocol has been to reference the ISA and

7 anytime that you are introducing new

8 literature is to put the reference in the

9 body, then you could say that up front.

10 MEMBER DRISCOLL: That is probably

11 a good suggestion, just to clarify the intent.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So Kathleen,

13 Kathy, do you have some wording that might fit

14 right there?

15 MEMBER WEATHERS: No. Following

16 on Charlie, maybe the thing to do is to ask

17 that referencing be consistent or the, I guess

18 whatever protocol or method is being used.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, actually I

20 can see that the panel asks that the

21 referencing to the scientific literature and

22 prior review documents be made consistent.

Page 72

1 MEMBER WEATHERS: And clear.

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And clear. You

3 know, keep to the scientific literature and be

4 consistent and clear throughout the PA. And

5 indeed if the way EPA wanted to do it is to

6 explain up front how that referencing was

7 going to be done, that would be good.

8 MEMBER JOHNSON: I think just in

9 general, generalized statements of fact that

10 may not be known to the public or

11 administrators need to be referenced.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: For a less

13 familiar audience?

14 MEMBER DRISCOLL: How about a

15 general audience, something like that, or a

16 non-technical audience?

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I'd go with a

18 non-technical. So even one could say, well,

19 I would hope, --

20 MEMBER KUMAR: I think the

21 technical audience want references. Right?

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

Page 73

1 MEMBER KUMAR: So I mean, what is

2 wrong with the word reader? That covers

3 everyone.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay, reader.

5 Okay, next paragraph. It sounds

6 good. Question two.

7 MEMBER KUMAR: So I guess the main

8 comment here was that the most assessments

9 used steady-state models. And a comment was

10 made that physical systems are never in

11 steady-state. So maybe a summary of the

12 assumption the limitation of the model used

13 needs to be included in the document.

14 MEMBER WEATHERS: That is not just

15 physical systems.

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Say that again,

17 Kathy.

18 MEMBER WEATHERS: It is not just

19 physical systems. However the systems were.

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: True. So

21 remove "physical."

22 MEMBER JOHNSON: How about
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1 ecosystems? They are never in steady-state.

2 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes, it could be

3 ecosystems or ecological systems. That

4 includes abiotic and biotic.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay,

6 ecosystems. Just yes, I was just going to

7 have eco added.

8 All right, question three. 

9 MEMBER KUMAR: Here the main

10 comment is on the discussion on pages 35 to 37

11 where we have rankings of uncertainty and the

12 comment is that there is no explanation of how

13 those rankings are arrived. So maybe we need

14 some information, some justification on those

15 assigned rankings.

16 And the second part of the comment

17 is that just like the sensitivity studies that

18 we are asking to be conducted. And I don't

19 know if you want to include this, the

20 different model that I used in aquatic

21 acidification and the sensitivity study that

22 we performed for those two. I just include it

Page 75

1 here but I would like the panel to say

2 something whether we are going to keep that or

3 not.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I like what it

5 said.

6 MEMBER HANSON: Are we

7 recommending a whole separate chapter on

8 uncertainties and is this the place to stick

9 them?

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: That is the

11 second paragraph.

12 MEMBER HANSON: Oh.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Laurie, did

14 you?

15 MEMBER CHESTNUT: No, I was just

16 yawning. Sorry.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Everybody likes

18 it? Thank you.

19 Oh, Myron you are back. There is

20 a reason why. There is a reason why we bring

21 it up.

22 Naresh had picked up a sentence

Page 76

1 from you where it says "There needs to be a

2 clarification; however . . . with respect to

3 specific years." And we weren't sure what

4 specific years meant.

5 MEMBER MITCHELL: Oh, okay. I can

6 tell you.

7 Within the document there is a

8 number of references to current, recent, and

9 I think versus having that type of unspecified

10 years that is going to cause real problems. 

11 They should actually indicate the actual years

12 associated with the data or the analyses.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: With respect to

14 the actual years --

15 MEMBER MITCHELL: Yes.

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: -- of the

17 analyses.

18 MEMBER MITCHELL: Okay.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: The actual

20 years of the analyses.

21 MEMBER MITCHELL: Because it says

22 my current and it actually is like three or

Page 77

1 four years ago. And this might be five years

2 ago by the time this comes out.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes. Just the

4 actual years of the analyses.

5 Chapter 3, Laurie.

6 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Okay. So the

7 first paragraph just starts that this is

8 important and that the assessment of what is

9 an adverse effect is fundamental to this

10 review and the standard setting process.

11 The ecosystems services framework

12 and the economic evaluation estimates can help

13 in this but that the chapter is not, doesn't

14 yet accomplish what it should do.

15 The last two sentences in that

16 paragraph, well I guess the first one is, I

17 would like to get some, make sure we are --

18 the one, I don't know if we are repeating

19 ourselves. Again, the way these effects are

20 described is in general terms. And it can do

21 this, it could do this. And to specify that

22 it is in sensitive areas that these effects
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1 are concerned. And the last sentence, I am

2 not sure it goes here. But somewhere it seems

3 like this idea that the whole concept of

4 developing this index is so that there is

5 protections in the areas that are sensitive

6 and not restrictions in areas that are not.

7 And I don't know that that is a

8 Chapter 3 issue or just an up-front kind of

9 point that needs to come through as one of the

10 motivations for why we are doing all of this.

11 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So the question

12 is if that should be made more clear, almost

13 in a Chapter 1 context.

14 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I think it

16 actually does belong in Chapter 3 as well.

17 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Okay.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And I like how

19 you phrased it. And the question is, does

20 this also have to come in a chapter further

21 up?

22 MEMBER CHESTNUT: And also while

Page 79

1 we are going through the cover part of the

2 letter, I didn't know if there is, I was

3 wondering if there is anything from this

4 chapter that should come up at this point

5 maybe, even more than the rest of it. I don't

6 have anything else that seems --

7 I mean obviously the assessment of

8 what is adverse is crucial. I am not sure

9 what to say about it in the --

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: In the letter.

11 MEMBER CHESTNUT: -- front part of

12 the letter, if there was something that should

13 come forward. So I just still have that

14 question but maybe this.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: But this

16 concept, I think does belong up in the letter,

17 the idea that, really the whole idea behind

18 the AAPI is to control in the sensitive areas,

19 not over control in the less sensitive areas.

20 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Right.

21 MEMBER AMAR: I mean I am having

22 trouble with that. I am just thinking about

Page 80

1 adding on to action. You know, power plant

2 emissions up in the Adirondacks. That is,

3 maybe there are no effects in Ohio but your

4 controlling emission is there so that you are

5 trying to protect the Adirondacks. I mean,

6 that is what the whole concept of acid rain

7 was.

8 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Maybe not

9 protect.

10 MEMBER AMAR: Okay.

11 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Controls may

12 have to be in Ohio to protect New York or the

13 Adirondacks.

14 MEMBER AMAR: I mean but that over

15 controlling implies that control is okay but

16 over control is not okay. When you say over

17 controlling, controlling more than necessary.

18 MEMBER HANSON: I mean, in Chapter

19 1, the EPA staff have gone through the legal

20 definitions of this and they have got one

21 thing in there that at some point some court

22 ruling has come down and said standards need

Page 81

1 to be sufficient but not more than necessary. 

2 So I think it is sort of covered in the legal

3 sense.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: It is covered

5 in the legal sense but --

6 MEMBER HANSON: But it is nice to

7 see it emphasized.

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: -- the whole

9 idea behind AAPI is a way of addressing that.

10 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Is to address

11 that.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And it would be

13 good if that concept really came out more, I

14 think.

15 MEMBER KUMAR: Instead of

16 controlling, why not overprotecting?

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Well how can

18 you over -- Well, you can't overprotect. We

19 do it with kids all the time.

20 (Laughter.)

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: But it still

22 doesn't get to Praveen's concern. Don't get
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1 rid of that chapter.

2 MEMBER JOHNSON: This is Dale, I

3 got to make a couple of comments on this and

4 then I have to go to my day job. But I think

5 this is the section where they specifically

6 had a paragraph saying we are not going to

7 economically evaluate any beneficial effects. 

8 Again, I think this is a huge mistake and

9 leaves it open to massive criticism. 

10 And the other comment, a little

11 more specific is, in the table and in the

12 analysis we talk about forest benefit or

13 ecosystem services and they don't talk about

14 timber products, such as timber fiber, things

15 like that, the whole forest industry.

16 So I think those two things need

17 to be mentioned.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So it is

19 something in terms of the benefits to the

20 timber industry might be too specific.

21 MEMBER CHESTNUT: I think that

22 goes under question five.

Page 83

1 MEMBER JOHNSON: Maybe it does.

2 MEMBER CHESTNUT: But --

3 MEMBER JOHNSON: Maybe I have got

4 the wrong chapter in mind. I don't remember. 

5 But it is somewhere in there there was a

6 paragraph --

7 MEMBER CHESTNUT: No, I think you

8 are right.

9 MEMBER JOHNSON: -- that said we

10 are not going to consider any benefits. I

11 think it is wrong, number one. And number

12 two, it is just going to leave it wide open

13 for dismissing the whole thing.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, so if you

15 look at page five, line 13, Laurie has that.

16 MEMBER JOHNSON: Okay. Maybe I am

17 on the wrong --

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: No, you are on

19 the right chapter. It is just it would be two

20 --

21 MEMBER JOHNSON: In a different

22 place?

Page 84

1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: A little bit

2 further down in the charge question response.

3 MEMBER CHESTNUT: But --

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, Laurie?

5 MEMBER CHESTNUT: This specific

6 omission about timber products, I mean I don't

7 think -- I mean that is a productivity is

8 considered an ecosystem service.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

10 MEMBER CHESTNUT: So where --

11 MEMBER JOHNSON: Well there is a

12 table there where it lists all kinds of things

13 and it doesn't list forest products.

14 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Right. It is

15 just an omission from a table.

16 MEMBER JOHNSON: In an economic

17 table that lists economic issues and there is

18 no forest products. That doesn't make any

19 sense to me so I think it should be listed.

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So that would

21 be a line somewhere in the paragraph --

22 MEMBER JOHNSON: Somewhere. I

Page 85

1 don't know where but I put it in my individual

2 comments, too.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

4 MEMBER JOHNSON: You list all

5 these benefits to the public welfare for

6 forest, without mentioning fiber, timber,

7 furniture, you know, we have wood all over our

8 houses and some from the forest.

9 MEMBER WEATHERS: Well, I think

10 that is Table 3-1 and the service categories

11 listed provisioning and that includes timber,

12 food, stuff we like to use.

13 MEMBER JOHNSON: I am not looking

14 at it right now but I remember food and

15 agriculture specifically but not timber and

16 forest products.

17 MEMBER HANSON: They need to add

18 fiber or forest products.

19 MEMBER CHESTNUT: We just need,

20 yes, timber in that.

21 MEMBER JOHNSON: Fiber, forest

22 products, something like that.
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1 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Okay.

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So --

3 MEMBER JOHNSON: I have got to go

4 to work. So if there is anything else, I will

5 check my email during breaks in class or

6 something. And if there are any other issues

7 I need to deal with, I will try to.

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Thanks, Dale.

9 MEMBER JOHNSON: Okay, bye.

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So the comment

11 would be is, and this can go in here, is

12 specifically timber products should be added

13 to provisioning in Table 1.

14 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So put that

16 somewhere.

17 MEMBER CHESTNUT: All right. So

18 where are we?

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So actually I

20 might --

21 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Did we finish

22 with question four?

Page 87

1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: No. Let's see. 

2 Question four, no we haven't because --

3 MEMBER CHESTNUT: We were still

4 talking about this.

5 MEMBER AMAR: The last sentence it

6 totally disappeared. What did we lose? I

7 think we lose what Laurie is saying there that

8 it needs to emphasize the intent is to protect

9 these ecosystems.

10 If you stop there and take out

11 that word without over controlling, then do we

12 leave it hanging?

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I think

14 actually it does lose some of its meaning.

15 MEMBER AMAR: And I am just

16 concerned about over controlling and what that

17 would mean. That is, really that is the, I

18 don't know over controlling, without

19 controlling just think about the word without

20 over. That is very much against what Title IV

21 was. I mean you are controlling emissions in

22 places where the NOy and SOX deposition were

Page 88

1 not causing any significant control but you

2 are controlling them because they are causing

3 significant harm in other places. That is the

4 way I read it.

5 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes, I see what

6 you are saying. I am just not sure how to

7 rephrase it without losing that.

8 MEMBER AMAR: I think what you

9 were saying, is quoting some, you know, it is

10 what administrator has got to do what is

11 necessary but not more than necessary. 

12 Requisite but not more than requisite. 

13 Something to that effect. I think that is

14 what you are saying.

15 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Right.

16 MEMBER AMAR: Don't overdo it.

17 MEMBER HANSON: Maybe it is clear

18 that the intent -- I am reading from my paper

19 what is up on the screen.

20 Clear that the intent of the

21 secondary standard is to how about

22 sufficiently protect to mirror the word that

Page 89

1 is in the legal language? Yes, so

2 sufficiently protect these sensitive systems

3 and then remove "without over controlling."

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So you add

5 sufficiently but still if you don't have the

6 idea that they are not looking to have the

7 same NOy and SOX concentration standard

8 everywhere. I mean, that is the real idea

9 here.

10 MEMBER CHESTNUT: You could take

11 about maybe the deposition and say without

12 over controlling in most locations where -- It

13 is this transport problem, I think Praveen

14 has, that you are going to have to control in

15 places where it is not doing harm in order to

16 protect the sensitive places.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Without forcing

18 reductions in NOy -- or decreases in NOy and

19 SOX deposition.

20 MEMBER CHESTNUT: That are not

21 causing harm.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: That are not
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1 causing significant harm or without requiring

2 more than forcing? Still, I am not --

3 MEMBER AMAR: Also is it our

4 place? It says CASNET. I think we are

5 getting into what EPA does for a living.

6 MEMBER KUMAR: Are we getting an

7 implementation here? I don't understand the

8 intent of the sentence.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Well I mean the

10 whole intent of the AAPI is that it is leading

11 to the appropriate level of reductions in NOy

12 and SOX in areas that are sensitive without

13 requiring reductions in other areas that would

14 not lead to benefits.

15 MEMBER HANSON: We want to

16 maximize the efficiency of additional SOx and

17 NOX.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Right. So the

19 whole idea of the AAPI is to protect the

20 sensitive areas without leading or without

21 requiring decreases in NOy and SOX levels in

22 areas where you won't get any benefits or

Page 91

1 significant benefits.

2 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes, I agree

3 with Laurie or the others. The problem is the 

4 transport issue.

5 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Isn't it just to

6 make a statement that you want to look at the

7 balance sheets between the effects and the

8 benefits and you want to err on the side of

9 making a prudent decision? I don't remember

10 the documents, the very long document, but I

11 thought there was a section talking about the

12 administrator's role in balancing these that

13 I thought was pretty good but I couldn't -- I

14 would have to take a few minutes to go through

15 the document but I think that is the intent

16 here.

17 The other thing that we are

18 ignoring is that there is a whole health side

19 to this. Right? And there are health

20 implications with respect to these things that

21 are going to come into play in the decision

22 process as well and we are ignoring that.

Page 92

1 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Well I don't

2 think Chapter 3 is trying to get to -- I mean,

3 that has to be done when the regulatory impact

4 analysis is done with all the co-benefits and

5 that is not what this is trying to get to. It

6 is more just this statement. I mean, I think

7 it is implied. And certainly in what they

8 talk about sufficient requisite -- I forget

9 the words but Paul had said them.

10 I just think yes. I don't know

11 where it needs to be said. I am not attached

12 to it being here. I just occurs to me that it

13 is an important point in terms of what this

14 whole thing is trying to do.

15 Otherwise, we just --

16 MEMBER AMAR: Why don't we start

17 right after sufficiently protect the sensitive

18 systems, period and not get into this

19 requiring decrees and areas and so on.

20 MEMBER KUMAR: That does not

21 answer I think that Laurie is trying to do. 

22 We might as well remove the whole sentence.

Page 93

1 MEMBER HANSON: I hesitate to say

2 this but I think we are putting too much into

3 what the form of the standard is capable of

4 doing.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Pardon me?

6 MEMBER HANSON: The AAPI does a

7 very creative job of characterizing how

8 deposition might effect local phenomenon in

9 the ecosystems and organisms. What it doesn't

10 do is incorporate the source of the

11 deposition, which is I think what we are

12 wandering off into at this point.

13 MEMBER AMAR: And is that our

14 place or this document?

15 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Well but it,

16 what the index does is set a standard that is

17 going to protect the sensitive areas because

18 those calculations will come up that way. And

19 the ones that are not won't exceed the

20 standard.

21 MEMBER POIROT: What about the

22 real intent, it seems to me, is to focus the
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1 secondary standard on the air quality

2 concentrations and deposition that effects

3 sensitive areas. I don't think we need to say

4 a lot about protecting the emission sources in

5 other areas. That is kind of really

6 irrelevant. The real intent is to focus the

7 controls most efficiently on air quality and

8 deposition or reducing air quality and

9 deposition in sensitive areas.

10 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes.

11 MEMBER POIROT: I don't know that

12 we have to be so detailed about the rest of

13 it.

14 MEMBER AMAR: But extending what

15 you just said, yes. But we are not saying how

16 one would go about doing that. We need to

17 protect air quality and deposition at places

18 where the systems, sensitive systems are

19 concerned.

20 MEMBER POIROT: Geographically

21 focus the efficiency of controls or something

22 like that?

Page 95

1 MEMBER KUMAR: I am okay with

2 removing the whole sentence. I mean, I think

3 we already said that in the previous sentence

4 that it is important in the chapter to say

5 that what we are concerned with is not NOx and

6 SOX deposition sensitive areas. So, --

7 MEMBER MITCHELL: The more I look

8 at this, I think it confuses issues in terms

9 of how this is going to end up being

10 implemented. I think it is clear that the

11 purpose of this is to look at sensitive areas

12 and that is the focus. I don't think we have

13 to say what it is not supposed to do. It

14 could go on and on forever.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And actually so

16 I like what it is saying. My one thought now

17 is that I am not sure Chapter 3 is the place

18 it goes because they haven't introduced the

19 AAPI yet. So we don't even --

20 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Right.

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: -- really know

22 what that is trying to do, since we haven't

Page 96

1 seen it.

2 MEMBER CHESTNUT: I am fine with

3 taking that last sentence out of here.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: But remember

5 the concept because I think they have to do

6 that better in Chapter 5, actually. That is

7 where it needs to come in.

8 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Okay.

9 MEMBER KUMAR: I do have a nit

10 picking comment on the first sentence. I

11 mean, are we trying to say other chapters are

12 not important?

13 MEMBER MITCHELL: I knew you were

14 going to say that. No. I think it is good to

15 say it is an important chapter.

16 MEMBER KUMAR: Although not as

17 important? This one is more important than

18 the other?

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: No, Chapter 5

20 is going to have this is a really very

21 important chapter.

22 MEMBER MITCHELL: This is the most

Page 97

1 important.

2 MEMBER CHESTNUT: It doesn't say

3 most important.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Whoever had the

5 really, really something that day.

6 MEMBER KUMAR: I forgot to put

7 anything in Chapter 2.

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I actually yes,

9 that is -- So, this chapter needs to describe.

10 MEMBER CHESTNUT: We could just

11 say this chapter needs to describe.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

13 Any other nit-picky things,

14 Naresh?

15 (Laughter.)

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. I can do

17 that. He was my student.

18 Question five.

19 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Did we -- You

20 didn't do the second paragraph.

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Oh, we probably

22 didn't.
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1 MEMBER CHESTNUT: How much time do

2 you want to spend here?

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: All the amount

4 of time requisite but no more.

5 (Laughter.)

6 MEMBER CHESTNUT: So this is -- I

7 think the point here is that the numbers that

8 are presented have to be put in a context. 

9 And of the -- focusing on what is the change

10 or loss as the result of the deposition

11 effects. And even though you can't -- you

12 know, neither the dollars or the science will

13 exactly pinpoint when it is adverse, it does

14 help in that assessment.

15 But the numbers need more

16 explanation. They tend to be just kind of put

17 in there without an interpretation of what it

18 means and what they tell.

19 I mean, I didn't explicitly say

20 and get rid of those total, those big numbers

21 about the total value of the hiking throughout

22 the forest. But if they are interpreted and

Page 99

1 explained, why that matters, I think that is

2 the key point.

3 MEMBER HANSON: I think you could

4 just simplify it by taking out some of the

5 material towards the middle and end of line 40

6 and the first part of line 41. So starting on

7 line 39, the monetary values that are

8 presented in the chapter need more explanation

9 period or need more clarification, period.

10 I mean, I don't think the rest of

11 it is needed down to panel on the next line.

12 I would take out the question,

13 too. I don't see -- Unless I don't understand

14 what that is for.

15 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Praveen you

16 wanted --

17 MEMBER AMAR: Yes, I had made that

18 point, I guess, from a reader perspective. 

19 People read this. I mean I have that line

20 there, you know, the purpose of computing is

21 not numbers but insights. And quite often

22 there are a lot of numbers in the chapter

Page 100

1 without the insights.

2 So I think it is fine like that.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Well, I would

4 take it out of the form of a question. The

5 document should highlight or explain. 

6 Hopefully you are saving this as we go.

7 Now do people want highlight or

8 explain?

9 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Can't we make it

10 part of the previous sentence? The monetary

11 values that are presented in the chapter need

12 more explanation to highlight the insights

13 implied or something for policy.

14 MEMBER AMAR: And maybe policy

15 relevant context or something which kind of

16 puts numbers into perspective.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Well, if it

18 says policy makers, I wouldn't put it in a

19 policy-relevant format.

20 MEMBER AMAR: Yes, or something.

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: It could say

22 highlight insights in a policy-relevant --

Page 101

1 MEMBER AMAR: Manner. That is

2 better, instead of policy makers. In the

3 context of policy, a policy-relevant context. 

4 That's good.

5 MEMBER KUMAR: I remember there

6 was a comment made that all the numbers should

7 be brought into a separate table. I think

8 Laurie has that by saying there are comments

9 from other members, I guess.

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I would still

11 put it here.

12 MEMBER AMAR: Okay.

13 MEMBER WEATHERS: In regard to the

14 policy, explanation as to what they mean for

15 policy?

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So you want to

17 say that specifically, Kathy?

18 MEMBER WEATHERS: Do the monetary

19 values that are presented in the chapter need

20 more explanation as to what they mean for

21 policy?

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.
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1 MEMBER CHESTNUT: More succinct?

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

3 So the monetary valuations should

4 be summarized in a table.

5 MEMBER CHESTNUT: I don't know if

6 we need to be that prescriptive.

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Well do we want

8 it? Should we put this as a good thing but a

9 lower priority thing?

10 MEMBER CHESTNUT: I think it could

11 be helpful --

12 MEMBER WEATHERS: A table would be

13 helpful.

14 MEMBER CHESTNUT: -- but it is a -

15 -

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Then I would

17 put it -- It would be helpful?

18 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes, a table

19 would be helpful.

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes. A table

21 summarizing monetary valuations would be

22 helpful.

Page 103

1 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes.

2 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Okay.

3 MEMBER POIROT: Could we change as

4 to what they mean for policy to as to their

5 policy implications? The reason being --

6 MEMBER WEATHERS: I like that.

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

8 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: You don't even

10 have to give us a reason. We like it.

11 MEMBER KUMAR: I removed the last

12 sentence because I think that is implicit in

13 all of her comments. 

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

15 MEMBER HANSON: In terms of the

16 table, I just would encourage them not to just

17 find a lot of numbers and include them in the

18 table without thinking about whether they make

19 a good argument, thinking back to the spruce

20 example.

21 I mean, just because they have a

22 numeric value for monetary impact available

Page 104

1 doesn't mean it should be used. It may not

2 make a good argument for an adverse impact.

3 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Well, I hope the

4 rest of the paragraph communicates that. But

5 yes, I agree with you but it is not just a

6 matter of slapping some numbers together. You

7 have to -- Okay.

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Question five.

9 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Ecosystem

10 services clearly communicated.

11 So the first paragraph says that

12 they are, the concepts are clearly

13 communicated, well presented. The

14 descriptions of how these services are

15 specifically affected by deposition need to be

16 improved.

17 I don't know if this is -- Some of

18 these sentences seem a little repetition now

19 compared to the earlier one.

20 I did want to insert at line six,

21 no, at line seven, reasonable confidence that

22 they are happening in sensitive ecosystems

Page 105

1 under current conditions.

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Other comments? 

3 Again, remember we will be able to do

4 wordsmithing later for redundancy.

5 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Well the next

7 paragraph at the very end is where I think we

8 should add timber products should be added to

9 Table 3-1.

10 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Okay.

11 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And I was

12 curious. Is buffering the right word there?

13 MEMBER CHESTNUT: This is some of

14 Paul's sentence.

15 MEMBER HANSON: Yes, written late

16 yesterday.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I am just

18 wondering.

19 MEMBER HANSON: Myron?

20 MEMBER MITCHELL: I think

21 buffering, I wouldn't use that word.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, to me that
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1 has a specific meaning. That is why I was

2 wondering about buffering.

3 MEMBER MITCHELL: I would say

4 inherent capacities for N and S retention.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: There you go.

6 MEMBER MITCHELL: You don't need

7 for the ability to absorb and utilize that. 

8 That is part of it.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Myron?

10 MEMBER MITCHELL: I was suggesting

11 that that is encompassed. You don't need the

12 part of the sentence that says from "or the

13 ability to absorb and utilize." That can be

14 deleted.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. Everyone

16 is fine? Six.

17 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Six. So, this

18 is uncertainties with articulating adversity

19 to public welfare.

20 So the first part is that the

21 description of the effects and the

22 quantification of acidification on aquatic

Page 107

1 resources. It is pretty clear that from a lot

2 of view points that there is adverse effects

3 and that then it goes on that the key

4 uncertainties that remain are about how much

5 adversity would be reduced of the standard

6 based on 50 versus 100 ANC. And it looks like

7 there are benefits continuous between the two.

8 I'm not sure I have any

9 suggestions on how to address that uncertainty

10 but it is an important one that is kind of

11 left there for a judgment to be made.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And I might

13 tend away from specifying a specific ANCs. 

14 Just, they have not settled on what ANC level

15 that they are looking toward.

16 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Okay, that's

17 fine. We could make it more general. Based

18 on a given ANC level.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

20 MEMBER AMAR: And your reference

21 to how much is enough, you mean how much

22 gravity is enough. Right?

Page 108

1 MEMBER CHESTNUT: How much -- what

2 is it?

3 MEMBER AMAR: You have line 30 or

4 31, how much is enough. The reference is to

5 how much value is enough.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: That is a

7 reduction of what you are saying should be

8 added of ANC or ANC increase?

9 MEMBER AMAR: How much improvement

10 in ANC or how much value.

11 I thought the context was value,

12 additional value.

13 MEMBER CHESTNUT: How much --

14 MEMBER AMAR: How much of what?

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: How much value

16 is added?

17 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes, I

18 understand your question. I am thinking.

19 MEMBER AMAR: I think you mean

20 value.

21 MEMBER CHESTNUT: That whole

22 sentence is kind of awkward if we are going to

Page 109

1 try to take the numbers out.

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So would it be

3 but they cannot give a specific value?

4 MEMBER CHESTNUT: They can't give

5 a specific point at which the adverse effect

6 has been --

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Adequately

8 mitigated?

9 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Adequate -- but

10 it is like it is a slow -- You never -- This

11 is -- I am not -- blah.

12 MEMBER AMAR: It seems like

13 marginal cost and marginal benefit. I think

14 that is what you are saying.

15 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes, every

16 improvement gives you a little bit more. And

17 when have you gotten to the point where you

18 have alleviated adverseness?

19 So the valuation estimates show

20 additional value for incremental improvements

21 in ANC.

22 DR. HUBBELL: And if I could just
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1 clarify one thing. I mean, obviously we

2 understand that some of this is going to be

3 defined by science and some of it is going to

4 be defined by a policy judgment by the

5 administrator as to what is adverse to public

6 welfare. What obviously we want to try to do

7 is provide as much information as we can about

8 what the science and the economics say about

9 those incremental changes, how she weighs

10 those incremental changes relative to her

11 impressions of what is appropriate to protect

12 public welfare. That is going to be a policy

13 judgment. But providing that incremental

14 information I think is what maybe you are

15 trying to get at it.

16 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Right.

17 DR. HUBBELL: Is that we need to

18 provide as much information about the

19 increments of change. Is that fair?

20 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes.

21 DR. HUBBELL: Okay.

22 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes.

Page 111

1 DR. HUBBELL: But there is always

2 going to be a policy judgment in there.

3 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Right.

4 MEMBER POIROT: So are there

5 actually economic valuation estimates

6 presented that do show that in the chapter or

7 is this more can show or will show?

8 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Well there is

9 some for recreational fishing with ANC at 50

10 and then ANC at 100 if you get more lakes to

11 these levels.

12 MEMBER POIROT: Okay.

13 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes, there are

14 some numbers like that.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Adequate. But

16 they cannot give a specific value of ANC

17 increase that is sufficient, adequate,

18 appropriate?

19 MEMBER CHESTNUT: I have to think

20 about it. I am not sure, in light of what

21 Bryan was saying, too, reminding that, I'm not

22 sure that we need that sentence, actually. 

Page 112

1 Just leave it at "The key uncertainties

2 include how much would be reduced with a

3 standard at a given ANC level." And maybe

4 take out the -- Yes, that sentence.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So then that

6 next sentence no longer is related, I think,

7 or is directly related to the prior sentence.

8 MEMBER CHESTNUT: I think --

9 MEMBER POIROT: Could we put that

10 back for a second? I was just thinking they

11 don't provide it, a full estimate of the

12 economic or environmental benefits or point to

13 a specific ANC level that would --

14 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes, you are

15 having another thought in there that is an

16 important point, I think. The economic values

17 that are available are not comprehensive. 

18 They don't capture all the benefits and they

19 don't point to a specific ANC levels.

20 MEMBER POIROT: That is the

21 administrator's judgment.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So Rich, what

Page 113

1 you are saying is that it should note that

2 essentially a clause at the end but do not

3 reflect all the --

4 MEMBER CHESTNUT: All the benefits

5 of reducing --

6 MEMBER POIROT: Increased

7 protection.

8 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Of reducing

9 deposition effects.

10 MEMBER POIROT: Don't use

11 reducing.

12 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Not reducing. 

13 Decreasing.

14 MEMBER POIROT: Decreasing

15 deposition or point to a --

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Specific ANC

17 level that should be required.

18 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Right. Okay.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Chapter 4. Oh,

20 I have just been told it is time for a break. 

21 So 15 minutes; so we will see you at 10:45.

22 (Whereupon, the foregoing matter
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1 went off the record at 10:31 a.m.

2 and resumed at 10:45 a.m.)

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: All right. I

4 think we are to Chapter 4, which would be

5 Rich.

6 MEMBER POIROT: Well so Chapter 4

7 was the one that really addressed the question

8 of the adequacy of the current standards. And

9 the first question seven is kind of asking if

10 we agree with the chapter's assessment of the

11 adequacy.

12 So I tried to say yes, we agree

13 that first there is sort of a simple test you

14 could make looking at the results of the

15 continuing effects of acidification from the

16 effects related network and make the

17 observation that effects are occurring and

18 looking at the results from the inter19 monitoring networks for NO2 and SO2 and

20 observe that the standards are being obtained. 

21 So clearly then obtaining the current

22 standards does not eliminate the effects. AND

Page 115

1 then in addition, the chapter also points out

2 that almost every aspect or element of the

3 standard, not just the level and the form but

4 also the averaging times and the indicators

5 are wrong and or not reflective of the

6 environmental effects.

7 And in addition to that, they are

8 taking one pollutant at a time for an effect

9 that is caused by the combination of the two. 

10 So that is what the answer to seven was

11 intended to reflect.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Comments? 

13 Good. Question eight.

14 MEMBER POIROT: Eight was the

15 harder question, I thought. And because it is

16 really asking about the use of, the

17 appropriateness of using kind of a long-term

18 steady state and C an indicator of effects in

19 comparison to current levels of deposition or

20 air quality; whereas, in reality the current

21 status is really a combination of current

22 deposition, as well as historical deposition.

Page 116

1 So I tried to add in then that

2 possibly -- Well, first to say that that was

3 a reasonable approach to take but that it

4 could be enhanced. I wish Charlie were here

5 but by applying dynamic modeling techniques to

6 either back casts, historical changes, to

7 compare those with measurements or to forecast

8 future changes if current deposition rates

9 remain unchanged.

10 Then the second paragraph was just

11 intended also to indicate that perhaps if we

12 are concerned about limitations of the long13 term steady-state ANC that it might not be

14 responsive to effects associated with episodic

15 events.

16 MEMBER MITCHELL: I would just

17 change the last sentence, remove associated

18 with spring snow melt events because you can

19 also have episodic acidification after

20 droughts as well. You have summer episodes as

21 well as spring episodes.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Any other

Page 117

1 comments?

2 MEMBER AMAR: Just one

3 clarification. I know the question came this

4 way. The long-term steady-state ANC. By that

5 do we mean the measure, model, long-term,

6 steady-state ANC or ANC as it is measured

7 today it reflects the long-term effects of all

8 the deposition of the past? Maybe it is too

9 late to ask.

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And I don't

11 think steady-state would be the right word. 

12 It is more just you are trying to get to the

13 long-term E average.

14 MEMBER POIROT: Yes, to be honest,

15 I was not all that clear on that myself. It

16 is what it says in the question.

17 MEMBER AMAR: I know. Is the

18 question clear?

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So I don't

20 think steady-state is the correct word, even

21 if it is in the question.

22 MEMBER POIROT: You know, I don't
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1 mind taking it out. Although it is really,

2 isn't it derived from use of a steady-state

3 model? I think it should be left in.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. In that

5 case, I mean this may be picky maybe it is

6 just how I would have phrased it is use of

7 long-term and ANC derived from steady-state

8 modeling.

9 MEMBER AMAR: If that is what is

10 meant.

11 MEMBER POIROT: Yes.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: That is

13 actually what is meant. It is a long

14 sentence, isn't it?

15 MEMBER POIROT: You could put a

16 period after reasonable approach. And this

17 could be enhanced.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes. Anything

19 else? Bryan.

20 MEMBER MITCHELL: You could

21 actually delete historical because that is

22 redundant with back cast. And you can also

Page 119

1 delete the word forecast because, or delete

2 the word future. Both of those are -- It is

3 implied by both those terms.

4 MEMBER AMAR: And to be clear, I

5 know logical friends use that term all the

6 time, dynamic modeling. That is non-steady7 state modeling. Right? Transient modeling. 

8 Is dynamic a case coming from my physics

9 background, it is not the right term I keep on

10 thinking because dynamics implies force. 

11 Force, momentum, that is what you learn what

12 dynamics means.

13 But here I think what is meant is

14 not a force, a physical force but something

15 non-steady --

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Non-steady17 state?

18 MEMBER AMAR: Or transition, non19 equilibrium, whatever the word is.

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Non-steady21 state.

22 MEMBER AMAR: Unless you know,

Page 120

1 Charlie loves the word dynamic and others.

2 MEMBER POIROT: Going down. 

3 Question nine.

4 DR. HUBBELL: Can I ask one

5 question on number eight before you get off

6 that? In your last sentence on number eight,

7 you said you make the statement that this is

8 the case, that use of long-term steady-state

9 may also fail to adequately address these

10 effects.

11 We are struggling a little bit as

12 to what we are supposed to do with that. Our

13 understanding and Charlie is not here so, it

14 is a little difficult, but our understanding

15 was that the models -- My thought was well,

16 let's just do some modeling and say okay what

17 are the episodic -- In other words, if you

18 were to look at the monthly or the seasonal

19 ANC that comes out of these models, you could

20 see where there are longer term ANC based on

21 an annual or multiple year average, whether

22 that would be protective against these shorter

Page 121

1 term peaks. And my understanding is the

2 models actually don't produce monthly or

3 seasonal ANC values. So I am trying to figure

4 out what we are supposed to do with that

5 statement.

6 So if there is any clarification

7 you can provide on that, that would be

8 helpful.

9 MEMBER POIROT: You know,

10 personally, I wouldn't object to taking that

11 whole last little paragraph out because I kind

12 of don't think it was the intent of your

13 question to have us go into that. Some

14 people, some of us have made some comments

15 about that. But I actually don't think it is

16 that relevant to the question of determining

17 adequacy.

18 DR. HUBBELL: Right.

19 MEMBER POIROT: You know, it would

20 be perfectly fine with me to take that whole

21 paragraph out.

22 DR. HUBBELL: Okay. Like I said,
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1 I just wanted to know, if we leave it in

2 there, it would be nice to know what we are

3 supposed to do. 

4 MEMBER MITCHELL: Can I comment on

5 that?

6 MEMBER POIROT: Yes.

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Before we

8 remove it I think that is something that we

9 should discuss.

10 MEMBER MITCHELL: I think the

11 basis for this comment was that we know that

12 these events will occur and if we develop some

13 type of level of protection based upon annual

14 average ANC, how will that accommodate these

15 events?

16 So I agree with Bryan there is a

17 mission of how to do this but maybe it has to

18 be done by not using the steady-state models

19 but using some dynamic models in which the

20 values are done over a shorter time frame, at

21 least monthly, sometimes even more fine

22 resolution.

Page 123

1 Probably some examples versus an

2 extensive analysis is needed here. I am a

3 little bit concerned about throwing these out

4 completely because for a lot of areas it is

5 the episodic acidification which is really

6 where we are having the biological impacts on

7 aquatic systems.

8 MEMBER POIROT: I agree with that,

9 Myron. However, my argument would be that I

10 don't really believe that it is in the answer

11 to this question where that should go.

12 MEMBER MITCHELL: Okay.

13 MEMBER POIROT: Because I don't

14 really think that is likely to affect the

15 conclusions relating to adequacy of the

16 current standards, since the conclusions are

17 already that the current standards are

18 inadequate and all this could do would be to

19 say in fact, they are event more inadequate

20 than we may have thought.

21 So I think this is a good point

22 but it doesn't really quite fit to the answer

Page 124

1 to this question.

2 MEMBER MITCHELL: So maybe it

3 should go on another portion of the document,

4 maybe? Do you feel comfortable with Bryan?

5 DR. HUBBELL: Well I don't have a

6 problem with you moving it to another section

7 but it still doesn't answer the question what

8 do we do about it.

9 So if, you know, there are two

10 ways to go. Obviously, one is to think maybe

11 there are some models that can address shorter

12 time scales, which I got the impression from

13 the modelers that I have talked to that that

14 is not an easy thing to do because they use

15 annual inputs and other things like that.

16 But the second way is if there is 

17 something we can do in terms of looking at

18 observational data that you have a suggestion

19 about that might help us identify this

20 relationship between episodic acidification

21 and longer term ANC levels, if there is

22 observational data that can help us, if you

Page 125

1 can identify where we should look, that would

2 be very helpful.

3 MEMBER POIROT: Right.

4 MEMBER MITCHELL: I understand the

5 problem and I guess through this whole process

6 there has been some suggestion that the

7 application of some dynamic modeling and some

8 of the evaluation might be helpful and this

9 could maybe be some very specific test case

10 where we think that might be a most important

11 factors.

12 In those areas where snow melt is

13 extremely important -- Certainly you have to

14 change some other models. You have to do some

15 dynamic modeling to have this occur. And

16 whether that is feasible within the context of

17 the time frame, I guess we have to have a

18 frank discussion about that.

19 DR. HUBBELL: Yes, and I am just -

20 - and I was hoping that Charlie could answer

21 the question of whether even the dynamic

22 models function on a subannual timescale or if
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1 they just look at over multiple years, in

2 which case, the question of do you use three

3 or five year average would make sense. It

4 still doesn't help to look at seasonal snow

5 melts.

6 MEMBER WEATHERS: The DayCent-Chem

7 model, for example, is on a daily time-step.

8 DR. HUBBELL: Okay. We haven't

9 used that model so I will have to investigate

10 that. But that is, I guess if we could just

11 get a few more of those kinds of specific

12 ideas, that would be helpful. Because

13 otherwise, I am just not sure what we do and

14 qualitatively discuss it.

15 MEMBER POIROT: An example,

16 conceptual example from observational data

17 would be to make the observation that in some

18 of the lakes that have experienced substantial

19 degrees of recovery of ANC over the last 20 to

20 30 years, we are still observing these

21 episodic pulses that could relate.

22 DR. HUBBELL: That maybe what we

Page 127

1 can maybe look at that. So those are the kind

2 of recommendations I think would be helpful.

3 MEMBER MITCHELL: I guess one

4 other possibility Bryan could be that

5 obviously like Charlie and other people have

6 used PnET-BGC to make these simulations. And

7 maybe the possibility of actually looking at

8 some of those results and place in the context

9 of some of the results associated with these

10 current parameters to make those comparisons

11 versus redoing those runs, that would seem

12 like it would be waste of time. Why not take

13 advantage of those analysis that already

14 occurred and then maybe have to do the

15 analysis appropriate for this particular focus

16 but actually take advantage of those previous

17 runs.

18 DR. HUBBELL: Okay, that is a good

19 idea. Thank you.

20 MEMBER HANSON: I think there is

21 an analogy here to peak ozone concentrations, 

22 peak acute ozone exposure concentrations that

Page 128

1 you could think about as well.

2 DR. HUBBELL: Yes and I think the

3 analogies are right. It is just a question

4 of, because the difference here is that the

5 thing that we are dealing with that has

6 chronic versus episodic effects is not the

7 atmospheric concentrations. It is the actual

8 effect of the deposition. So they are

9 disconnected in time. And so that is not

10 something we can address for the form of the

11 standard, but it is something that maybe we

12 need to address in terms of the target ANC,

13 rather than the atmospheric indicator. And

14 that is what I am struggling a little bit

15 with. That is why I was asking the question

16 yesterday.

17 So you know, annual values of NOx

18 and SOx may still be appropriate even to deal

19 with episodic events that are occurring from

20 deposition. But whether we choose a chronic

21 ANC level that is targeted based on the annual

22 acidification problem versus a chronic ANC

Page 129

1 that is targeted to protect against episodic

2 effects, that is what I am trying to get a

3 handle on.

4 Because maybe you need a more, a

5 higher ANC value to protect against episodic

6 events. And I just, I don't have a real great

7 handle on that yet and it would be helpful to

8 think through some of those.

9 MEMBER HANSON: Well yes, I think

10 it is certainly important within the document

11 to point out what the AAPI can and cannot do. 

12 If you don't do it the public will and

13 somebody from the public is going to say they

14 might have the potential of pointing out that

15 this is the wrong standard. And unless you

16 model it a short time-step, you are not going

17 to get the kind of adverse effects that I

18 making or that member of the public is making.

19 DR. HUBBELL: Yes and that's what

20 we want to make sure that we fully -- 

21 MEMBER HANSON: I tried to

22 introduce that in some of the chapter and I
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1 don't think I did a great job and so I am

2 looking for advise on how we can do a better

3 job with that. And again, it is just a matter

4 of figuring out are there things we can do

5 with the data that we have. And it sounds

6 like maybe some of the modeling results that

7 Charlie has can help.

8 DR. HUBBELL: Right.

9 MEMBER HANSON: I'll just leave it

10 at that. Thank you.

11 MEMBER MITCHELL: So should that

12 be made more explicit within this text or

13 Bryan do you have sufficient information?

14 DR. HUBBELL: Well, it is going to

15 get moved somewhere else.

16 MEMBER MITCHELL: Okay.

17 DR. HUBBELL: I think I got the

18 information I need from what you just said. 

19 If you can clarify whether you expect

20 something quantitative specifically, that

21 would be great. If you don't and you just

22 want us to explore that, to make that

Page 131

1 statement that something needs to be explored.

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So that is

3 something to think about is again it comes

4 with the prioritization do we expect that in

5 the next revision and how important is that. 

6 If we want something quantitative versus if

7 they would explore it and provide description

8 and sort of be able to tell us if it is going

9 to be important or not.

10 But moving on, Rich.

11 MEMBER POIROT: Are done with

12 eight? And then nine is asking about

13 basically the air quality and deposition

14 characterization presented also in Chapter 4. 

15 And I guess I just wanted to make the point

16 that while most of the information that was

17 presented was useful, there were some figures

18 that the information appeared to be incorrect. 

19 Likely, just caption labels or units or

20 something like that. But a number of the

21 figures were in question.

22 And also then we wanted to see

Page 132

1 additional figures showing total reduced

2 nitrogen deposition as well as the fraction of

3 total nitrogen deposition that was contributed

4 by reduced or oxidized nitrogen. That was the

5 point of the first paragraph.

6 And the second paragraph is

7 actually referring to these ratio transfer

8 maps that are introduced in Chapter 5 but

9 suggesting that those might actually be

10 presented in some form here as part of the air

11 quality characterization because in fact it

12 really is asking questions about the adequacy

13 of existing networks not only to evaluate the

14 current standards but also to potentially

15 evaluate future standards. So I thought that

16 those maps and some additional exploration of

17 them could be brought forward and expanded on

18 in this chapter.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: You know, I

20 like that idea. Because I think if they did

21 show it versus NO2, it would look weird and it

22 would make the point very clearly.

Page 133

1 MEMBER HANSON: Just a minor

2 point. The very last word of the second

3 paragraph, adequacy. The question asks about

4 relevance. Should that last word be

5 relevancy?

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I actually

7 prefer adequacy. Relevancy -- what say you?

8 MEMBER POIROT: Well the basic

9 title of the chapter, I think, has to do with

10 adequacy of current standards. And they kind

11 of try to make an argument that I didn't

12 really buy that we can't really assess their

13 adequacy because we don't have NOy

14 measurements and that is -- I am not buying

15 that.

16 I am saying, if you really want to

17 support your argument that NO2 is an

18 inadequate indicator, show us by showing how

19 the ratio map of NO2 deposition is less -- is

20 more variable, noisier --

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Less stable.

22 MEMBER POIROT: -- poorer
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1 indicator.

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Naresh.

3 MEMBER KUMAR: So in the main body

4 of the letter we are saying our CMAQ model

5 evaluation and that those results should be

6 done in appendix or brought into Chapter 4. 

7 Would this be the place to mention it again?

8 Because we don't mention that

9 anywhere in Chapter 4. And I remember

10 yesterday some comments were made in response

11 to this question but this is the first time

12 you are talking about CMAQ results. You know,

13 those just need to be evaluated against

14 measurements.

15 So I am wondering I do talk about

16 model evaluation in response to question 18. 

17 So, I am not sure if you want to bring it here

18 also.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I don't think

20 it goes here. I think it actually belongs

21 more in Chapter 5. And the reason why is what

22 Rich is getting to here is just showing that

Page 135

1 NO2 alone is probably not a good indicator. 

2 And I don't think that requires a CMAQ

3 evaluation to say that. 

4 MEMBER KUMAR: Because the

5 characterization of the ambient air quality

6 and deposition is done using CMAQ results. I

7 mean, the question number 9, directly asks

8 that. The question is that adequate to use

9 CMAQ results without doing an evaluation.

10 So I realize we are mentioning

11 evaluation in response to different questions. 

12 Do we want to even say it here and also in the

13 main body you do mention that the results

14 should be discussed in Chapter 4. So if they

15 are going to be discussed in Chapter 4, this

16 is the place where they should be discussed.

17 MEMBER POIROT: You know, I was

18 having similar thoughts to that when I was

19 reviewing it but then it occurred to me that

20 well there was an evaluation of CMAQ

21 performance that was included as part of the

22 REAs and appendix to it last time. But in

Page 136

1 this case, at least one difference is for

2 something like these ratio maps, that anytime

3 you have a ratio of two modeled things, you

4 have the potential to multiply your bias or

5 offset it.

6 MEMBER KUMAR: I am okay with

7 including that. I am just wondering if we

8 should also mention about model evaluation

9 here, even though we are mentioning that

10 somewhere else.

11 MEMBER AMAR: Where are we

12 mentioning it this time somewhere else?

13 MEMBER KUMAR: In response to

14 question 18.

15 MEMBER AMAR: Eighteen?

16 MEMBER KUMAR: Which is, I think,

17 chapter six.

18 MEMBER AMAR: I mean, one

19 possibility might be reference here to that,

20 question 18. Say please receive a response to

21 question 18, if that is what you are doing.

22 MEMBER POIROT: You know, in some

Page 137

1 ways, I guess, I am trying to think if I am

2 EPA, I am wondering what is it you want us to

3 do for model evaluation that we didn't include

4 in the analysis last time.

5 MEMBER KUMAR: And I think that is

6 what --

7 MEMBER POIROT: And I think if we

8 are going to ask them to do more, we need to

9 be specific.

10 MEMBER KUMAR: And I am being

11 specific in response to question 18.

12 MEMBER HANSON: All I wanted to

13 ask was is this the place where we need to say

14 something about chemically-reduced forms of

15 nitrogen? As far as I am concerned, the

16 wording is fine.

17 MEMBER AMAR: Eighteen is very

18 CMAQ specific. Any reference to that here

19 might --

20 MEMBER KUMAR: I think it would be

21 useful.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. So, what
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1 would you -- how would you phrase this? I

2 mean, I am quite game to put it here. In

3 essence something at the end of that sentence

4 saying this chapter should also contain a

5 summary of the performance evaluation of CMAQ.

6 MEMBER KUMAR: Something like that

7 and I will discuss more in response to

8 question 18.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. A

10 summary of this assessment. No, a summary of

11 the performance assessment of CMAQ as

12 discussed.

13 MEMBER POIROT: Or as it pertains

14 to these species.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: As it pertains

16 -- 

17 MEMBER POIROT: Or as discussed. 

18 I don't think you need both.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: That is

20 actually as Rich said, removed as it pertains

21 to and just says as discussed in response.

22 Praveen, you are on.

Page 139

1 MEMBER AMAR: Question number ten,

2 Chapter 5. We are going to the next one. 

3 This is a summary of what many of us said

4 talking, asking us directly what we think of

5 this whole approach, conceptual framework,

6 structure and so on. And I am saying and

7 others were saying too that it's innovative,

8 people use the word creative. So it is all

9 there and it is positiveness. And it is

10 designed for addressing those four linkages

11 between concentration, deposition, aquatic

12 chemistry and then finally ecological effects.

13 And then I added this I think I

14 can reflect what everybody was saying,

15 "However, as currently proposed, calculation

16 of AAPI assumes deposition of reduced forms of

17 reactive nitrogen to be constant in the

18 future, which most probably is not true,

19 considering upward trajectory of U.S. ammonia

20 emissions," which is what I added. "A more

21 realistic approach would be to treat ammonia

22 as a precursor --" That is the word we had

Page 140

1 used yesterday. " -- to the AAPI standard and

2 then periodically not show," I wrote annually

3 with a question mark, "update this index as

4 the ammonia emissions change, increase or

5 decrease over time."

6 And the last sentence I am not

7 sure I got it right. All the discussion with

8 respect to dynamic modeling yesterday and I

9 thought parts of this AAIP calculation is

10 based on steady-state, too. 

11 So the last sentence which is

12 valid here we should keep. If I didn't get it

13 right, we should delete. But the underlying

14 assumption of steady-state behavior should be

15 evaluated with panel effort using sensitivity

16 analysis and dynamic modeling. And this

17 language appears in other places, too. So I

18 don't know whether we need it here, the last

19 sentence.

20 Yes, go ahead.

21 MEMBER KUMAR: I have a comment on

22 the previous sentence, not on this one.

Page 141

1 MEMBER AMAR: Which one?

2 MEMBER KUMAR: I guess where you

3 are talking what treating ammonia as a

4 precursor and periodically updating it. That

5 is pretty much what they have now. I mean,

6 they are still planning to update

7 periodically. It may not be annually but I

8 think what we discussed yesterday was to maybe

9 make it more dynamic in that equation, rather

10 than asking them to just update it

11 periodically.

12 MEMBER AMAR: So did the balance

13 between treat ammonia like SOX and NOX or not

14 and the precursor to the idea I had suggested

15 yesterday, I got some as late as yesterday but

16 I am not sure. We can talk. But then if you

17 are going to use it as a precursor, then --

18 MEMBER KUMAR: It is not -- It is

19 directly contributing to that but it is not a

20 precursor as such.

21 MEMBER AMAR: I thought we were

22 using precursor to --
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1 MEMBER KUMAR: I know that was

2 said yesterday but --

3 MEMBER AMAR: -- and everything

4 else.

5 MEMBER CHESTNUT: How about input?

6 MEMBER KUMAR: Yes, it is an

7 input, it is not a precursor.

8 MEMBER AMAR: See a precursor, I

9 thought a more solid term. Like VOC is a

10 precursor to ozone and therefore we got all

11 those VOC controls in this country because it

12 is precursor to a criteria.

13 MEMBER KUMAR: If you call ammonia

14 the precursor to deposition of even NOX and

15 SOX, would you consider those precursors then?

16 MEMBER AMAR: Well SOX and NOX are

17 big time precursors in my mind.

18 MEMBER KUMAR: They also directly

19 contribute.

20 MEMBER AMAR: Yes but they make

21 sulfates and nitrates and therefore, PM2.5 and

22 acid deposition. So SOX is a precursor to

Page 143

1 acid deposition. NOX is too.

2 MEMBER CHESTNUT: But the sentence

3 is about precursor to the AAPI --

4 MEMBER AMAR: I know.

5 MEMBER CHESTNUT: -- standards.

6 MEMBER AMAR: And that work, I was

7 being tactful. I mean AAPI, is this a NAAQS

8 or is it something else? I mean, what is

9 AAPI? Is it a secondary NAAQS or something

10 which looks like secondary NAAQS?

11 MEMBER WEATHERS: How about as a

12 component? Component of the --

13 DR. HUBBELL: Well, to be clear

14 what we are seeing it as is, what we are

15 treating it as at this point is a modifying

16 factor. It is not -- 

17 Precursor is an interesting word

18 because it is --

19 MEMBER HUSAR: That is why it is

20 quote, unquote here.

21 DR. HUBBELL: When we use the term

22 precursor in the terms of VOCs and with NOX

Page 144

1 and SOX as a contributor PM, it is a precursor

2 because it transforms in the atmosphere and

3 becomes part of the regulated substance. 

4 Okay?

5 When we are dealing with ammonia

6 here, it is a contributor to the AAPI and a

7 modifier to the amount of NOX and SOX that is

8 allowable but it does not actually transform

9 into NOX or SOX. It is actually something

10 that modifies the amount of NOX and SOX that

11 we are saying is acceptable in a system.

12 So it is a little different

13 conceptually. So I would be a little cautious

14 about saying it is equivalent to a precursor

15 like VOCs or NOX and SOX relative to PM.

16 Granted, I understand the concept

17 that you are trying to clarify that it is

18 something that contributes to the overall

19 standard in a way that modifies the way that

20 we look at NOX and SOX. But it is not a

21 precursor in that like NOX and SOX that

22 transform and become part of the massive PM or

Page 145

1 VOCs which transform through their interaction 

2 with NOX to form ozone. It is not the same

3 type of a transformation product in that same

4 way.

5 So I just would exercise a little

6 caution if you choose to do so. Obviously you

7 can use that word if you think it makes the

8 most sense. But just, it is a different

9 concept, I believe.

10 MEMBER HUSAR: Well, I like the

11 use o the EPA's language. It is a modifying

12 component. We have enough new vocabulary

13 here. We don't need to be adding to it.

14 MEMBER KUMAR: And in that

15 formulation of modifying component, it is

16 kosher. In other words, if you can pass

17 through if you need additional rationalization

18 or fortification through the use of precursor,

19 well then just keep it as modifying.

20 DR. HUBBELL: Yes, the big

21 difference between what we talked about

22 yesterday --
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1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And actually

2 speak into a microphone. I will say that for

3 Kathy.

4 DR. HUBBELL: My apologies.

5 MEMBER WEATHERS: Thank you.

6 DR. HUBBELL: Sorry about that

7 Kathy. What I was trying to get at is our

8 understanding has evolved a bit from when we

9 presented this to you originally to understand

10 that the key component is moving from a static

11 or a single measurement that would be fixed in

12 time to try to incorporate a dynamic variable,

13 a dynamic modifying factor that could be

14 adjusted over time to reflect changes in the

15 ammonia that is occurring because of other

16 trends and ammonia outside of our regulatory

17 approaches.

18 In other words, because

19 everybody's understanding is that ammonia

20 trends are going upwards, keeping it fixed in

21 time was going to be a problem. And I think

22 that we hear that and we are trying to

Page 147

1 incorporate that in the next phase of this

2 design.

3 So I think your statement is about

4 the trajectory of U.S. ammonia emissions and

5 the fact that this is an important modifying

6 factor. That communicates very well what it

7 is the panel is looking for, right without

8 introducing this concept of a precursor which

9 seems a little confusing.

10 MEMBER WEATHERS: Once again --

11 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Go ahead.

12 MEMBER WEATHERS: -- using the

13 word component, does that work? So treat

14 ammonia as a component of the AAPI standard?

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: We have

16 modifying component.

17 MEMBER WEATHERS: Okay.

18 MEMBER HANSON: Well I actually

19 object to it. I mean I understand why you are

20 using that term. It is a modifying component

21 to the NOX and SOX part of the deposition

22 component of the AAPI but in terms of the

Page 148

1 mechanism involved in the AAPI, it is just

2 another component of N-deposition.

3 DR. HUBBELL: Yes, and you could

4 just use the term component of the AAPI and

5 then say that, you know, because it actually

6 doesn't -- what it modifies is the amounts of

7 NOX and SOX that would be allowable to be able

8 to satisfy a given AAPI standard.

9 MEMBER HANSON: Right.

10 DR. HUBBELL: But in terms of the

11 calculation of the AAPI, it is simply another

12 component. So, I agree with you. So however

13 you want to include that, that is the correct

14 concept that you just laid out.

15 MEMBER HUSAR: I would think that

16 Ellis would also like to just keep it as a

17 component. That is what I think.

18 MEMBER AMAR: There goes the

19 precursor.

20 (Laughter.)

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: He loved the

22 word but it is gone.

Page 149

1 MEMBER AMAR: I mean, I was not

2 careful -- well, I was. That is why I put

3 quote unquote, knowing that there will be

4 discussion here.

5 And the last -- go ahead.

6 MEMBER KUMAR: So I guess I am

7 still uncomfortable with asking to

8 periodically update it when I was recommending

9 more treating it as a dynamic term where you

10 know if it is something that stays good,

11 decide if they want to change ammonia flux as

12 of way of implementation of the standard.

13 So I guess, I mean it was not very

14 different from what is already there. All it

15 is saying is that after one year or five

16 years, EPA will look at the new values of

17 ammonia flux and update it. That is not very

18 different from what is already there.

19 MEMBER AMAR: I thought yesterday

20 the assumption was that they will have three

21 years of baseline data to figure out that NHX,

22 you know this little thing in the equation.
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1 MEMBER KUMAR: I mean, that wasn't

2 there but is that what we are recommending or

3 is that what EPA is saying they can do?

4 MEMBER AMAR: I was trying to

5 suggest there to the extent ammonia emissions

6 will change, which will result in change in

7 ammonia concentrations and ammonia deposition,

8 and therefore, this equation that is

9 calculated in the future should reflect change

10 in ammonia emissions, concentrations, and

11 deposition. I mean, that is what I am trying

12 to say.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And I think

14 actually you two are saying somewhat the same

15 thing, except it would just, the word

16 periodically, I think what Naresh is saying is

17 then updating the AAPI and remove periodically

18 and annually and just updating to suggest it

19 is done on the appropriate timescale, be it

20 part of the SIP or be it part of just changes

21 in the amount levels over time.

22 Does that capture what you are

Page 151

1 saying Naresh?

2 MEMBER KUMAR: Not entirely.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: No.

4 MEMBER KUMAR: I guess when I made

5 the comment yesterday it was just keeping it 

6 as a separate term, like a constant term sends

7 the wrong message to a state so they don't

8 have to deal with ammonia emissions.

9 And what is being suggested they

10 periodically update it only become ammonia

11 emissions are going to change, most likely

12 increase. It doesn't really say what to do

13 about that. So I would say it should be

14 treated as a separate term in the AAPI.

15 MEMBER AMAR: I mean treat it as

16 with the respect as SOX and NOX, as a third

17 pollutant in this three-dimension stuff. I

18 mean that is the way I think that ammonia

19 should be treated the same way as we do SOX

20 and NOX. But then all the limitations we

21 heard that you cannot do that or how would you

22 do that. So I am just trying to have this

Page 152

1 diplomatic language here.

2 And I don't think states when you

3 say it, that states will do this. I don't

4 think states in this country in the absence of

5 clear EPA direction will do anything

6 differently than EPA, now I am talking like a

7 policy person, especially with respect to

8 ammonia.

9 MEMBER POIROT: So would that mean

10 it would have to be measured, along with the -

11 -

12 MEMBER AMAR: That is a good

13 question. There is some reference here and

14 there were comments some place ammonia

15 measurement, some other question, I think.

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So Naresh, you

17 don't like having it --

18 MEMBER KUMAR: I don't have a

19 suggestion but I don't agree. So I don't know 

20 of others have any suggestions or not.

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So saying and

22 then updating AAPI, that doesn't address it

Page 153

1 because what you want it to be is a separate

2 control variable.

3 MEMBER AMAR: Just be careful. I

4 think control the way Bryan used it yesterday,

5 controlling for something is not the same as

6 controlling something. When I think of

7 controlling emissions mathematically you

8 control for some area without controlling it.

9 MEMBER POIROT: I mean aren't all

10 the other, or many of the other chemical

11 elements of the AAPI are in fact updated as

12 the new data come in. So, if it is updated as

13 ammonia emissions change, what is the

14 difference? Doesn't that take care of it?

15 MEMBER KUMAR: I mean, that is

16 what I am saying. What is new here? We

17 recommend it. There is nothing new.

18 MEMBER POIROT: Well, I think what

19 is new is that without this recommendation,

20 they were proposing to hold the ammonia

21 contribution constant.

22 MEMBER AMAR: Constant in time.
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1 MEMBER POIROT: We are saying vary

2 it, as you vary the other stuff. That is what

3 is new.

4 MEMBER AMAR: And executive

5 summary had a statement saying that assumption

6 may not be valid. Constant ammonia and you

7 will be over or under predicting.

8 MEMBER KUMAR: Then why only the

9 ammonia term? Shouldn't the other terms also

10 be updated?

11 MEMBER AMAR: Of course. They

12 will be but I think that the assumption is

13 that they will do that for SOX and NOX. No?

14 MEMBER KUMAR: No, not SOX and NOX. 

15 I am talking about other terms in AAPI which

16 are not being controlled. So VNOy, VSOx.

17 DR. HUBBELL: Yes, our plan was

18 originally to vary those over time. Now

19 again, to the extent that you feel that is

20 appropriate for us to, and it is all one

21 suggestion and one of the further things,

22 further questions that there is a relationship

Page 155

1 between what we are now calling V but we will

2 change that term, but the V's and the levels

3 of NOX and SOX or other parameters.

4 So if you feel that those should

5 be updated over time or that they should

6 incorporate additional data, etcetera, that is

7 something that we can certainly start to think 

8 about how to do.

9 But the plan originally was to fix

10 all those parameters at the time we set the

11 standards because I thought that was what our

12 legal folks were telling us to do. 

13 I am understanding now that we

14 have some more flexibility than that,

15 potentially. So if that is something that is

16 supportable or desirable in the standard, that

17 that is a good comment to provide to us.

18 MEMBER AMAR: Then look at this

19 equation, the one you showed us yesterday, I

20 thought as you go in the future, these terms

21 won't change because you will figure that out

22 through CMAQ. But the concentrations

Page 156

1 themselves, NOY and SOX, they will change.

2 DR. HUBBELL: Yes, they do because

3 those are what you are actually measuring in

4 compliance.

5 MEMBER AMAR: And maybe the Q

6 terms won't change but those concentrations

7 will.

8 DR. HUBBELL: Yes, the

9 concentrations are the things that you are

10 measuring for compliance. The idea was that

11 the Q and the V's and the NHX would be fixed

12 as parameters that would go into when we gave 

13 the tradeoff curves to the states, they would

14 be based on the values of those variables at

15 the time we set the standard.

16 If instead what you are saying is

17 well we think that perhaps this should be

18 evaluated and potentially updated over time

19 and therefore that would affect the tradeoff

20 curve is that individual states would have to

21 try to comply with, that is going to

22 complicate things but it may be something that 

Page 157

1 you think is desirable as part of the overall

2 way we implement the standards.

3 So I am not telling you whether

4 these --

5 MEMBER KUMAR: I mean, I think we

6 at least need to evaluate whether to throw

7 stones with change or not. I don't know if

8 the deposition concentration ratios will

9 change when the emissions change, emissions of

10 NOX and SOX change over time. Those

11 relationships should not change but since we

12 are using models, should models be --

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Right. I would

14 actually say that that can be added to our

15 request for the sensitivity analysis.

16 MEMBER KUMAR: I think I have

17 added that.

18 DR. HUBBELL: That is what we --

19 We actually included those plots that were

20 very, I think somewhat difficult to look at

21 sometimes. But we included the plots of the -

22 - We ran four years of the ratios to look at
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1 what is the temporal stability of the ratios

2 in different locations and we saw they were

3 relatively stable over that four-year period

4 that we looked at. And the question is, is

5 that enough to look at stability to say that

6 we ought to keep those stable or is it

7 something that we need to be checking over

8 time.

9 And that is just something that

10 certainly we can incorporate that information

11 if that is desired.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Right. And I

13 think Naresh will get to that as one of the

14 sensitivity analyses would be to test it

15 currently for conditions of different NOy

16 levels in the future and different SOX levels

17 in the future that one would expect due to

18 current control programs just to see if you

19 cut SOX and NOX by 50 percent, if your V's

20 change significantly in over one year.

21 MEMBER POIROT: So would it help

22 to make it clear in this case to treat ammonia

Page 159

1 as a variable component of the APPI standard

2 and to update the APPI as ammonia emissions

3 change?

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I think that is

5 and then updating. I would get rid of

6 periodically and just update.

7 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes, I like

8 that.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Update or

10 updating? Updating the AAPI?

11 MEMBER WEATHERS: It is a variable

12 component right?

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes. Variable

14 component of the AAPI standard and then

15 updating the AAPI as ammonia emissions change

16 over time.

17 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes.

18 MEMBER HUSAR: Is that really the

19 intent, making ammonia special? In other

20 words, not treating it coming out of the CMAQ,

21 let's say, just like SOX and NOX but rather it

22 is something different that is just

Page 160

1 periodically updated, rather than just part

2 of, just the components that you normally

3 estimate anyway through the way you estimate

4 the SOX and NOX.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So the SOX and

6 NOX are measured. As part of the standard,

7 they are measured.

8 MEMBER HUSAR: Oh. Okay but --

9 Measured but --

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Keep going,

11 Rudy.

12 MEMBER HUSAR: -- it is still

13 somehow kind of a, isn't it going through some

14 kind of an aggregation or something?

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: It being the

16 ammonia deposition level?

17 MEMBER AMAR: Yes. Would they be

18 driven by CMAQ? That wasn't clear.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: What?

20 MEMBER AMAR: When you try to do

21 what we are proposing here for ammonia, where

22 will that data come from?

Page 161

1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: It comes from

2 CMAQ.

3 MEMBER AMAR: Okay, which will

4 have ammonia concentrations, deposition, NH

5 checks, and that is for everything.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Rich.

7 MEMBER POIROT: Well I think the

8 difference, Rudy, in this case, would be

9 really that in the way it was proposed, the

10 ammonia contribution would be taken as a

11 constant given that would never change. 

12 And if we now consider it to be a

13 varying component, then if the state or

14 whatever were able to reduce its ammonia

15 emissions and concentrations, it could -- that

16 would count as an optional way towards

17 obtaining the standard. That wasn't an option

18 before and we are suggesting there should be

19 one now. So that is the point.

20 The next question is, however,

21 whether we can get by with modeling it or we

22 are going to have to measure it like
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1 everything else.

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Rudy.

3 MEMBER HUSAR: Yes but still, I

4 see the two extremes here. You know, Naresh

5 says that well, what if you have a continued

6 available data? Is that not the idea that the

7 standard would allow the use of actual numbers

8 in updating whatever is the frequency at which

9 you "update" or measure the SOX and NOX?

10 It has to be specified that those

11 scales in which you bring in ammonia can or

12 should be different than for SOX and NOX.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And I think --

14 Kathleen.

15 MEMBER WEATHERS: We are testing

16 here on the frequency with which ammonia needs

17 to be included.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Or updated. So

19 your question was --

20 MEMBER WEATHERS: I am just trying

21 to figure out what a compromise solution might

22 be. But I am trying to restate the issue. So

Page 163

1 it sounds like where we are stuck is the

2 frequency with which ammonia needs to be

3 included or updated as part of the AAPI. Is

4 that right?

5 MEMBER AMAR: Yes. And Kathleen,

6 one way to address it might be simply how the

7 inventories are done. It is every three years

8 for five years of ammonia and everything else. 

9 So maybe that is the frequency.

10 DR. HUBBELL: If I could just

11 interject a little bit on this. One of the

12 things that again would be hopefully feasible

13 and desirable is that when we set the standard

14 we are going to have to put some levels out

15 there and say here is the ammonia levels that

16 we are initially setting the standard on.

17 And to the extent that we can

18 allow flexibility to say the states may update

19 their ammonia estimates that go into

20 determining their designation as attainment or

21 non-attainment, that they may update them as

22 they obtain the information rather than

Page 164

1 requiring them to do it at a set time because

2 different states, I think, are going to be

3 collecting data in different ways. And again,

4 the desirability of getting the ammonia

5 monitoring as well as doing updates with the

6 modeling based on the emission inventories,

7 that is something I think we want to explore. 

8 Because we certainly, from what we hear from

9 the panel and also other from the nitrogen

10 panel as well, measuring, doing monitoring,

11 additional monitoring on ammonia is desirable.

12 So finding ways to encourage that

13 while recognizing that they need flexibility

14 would be desirable. Again, I don't know how

15 that fits with what you are trying to tell us

16 but I think that is something we would see as

17 desirable is that flexibility.

18 MEMBER WEATHERS: That sounds like

19 then the phrase at a frequency that I don't

20 know if it is scientifically defensible that

21 is, again, feasible. What is the right term

22 for that? Frequency that is -- I am looking

Page 165

1 at my colleagues.

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I know and we

3 are all looking at each other. Yes, Rich?

4 MEMBER POIROT: Well, I guess

5 personally I prefer to be somewhat silent on

6 the issue because it isn't clear to me how

7 flexible the EPA can actually be. It could in

8 the end vary anywhere from okay, go out and

9 measure ammonia, along with the other

10 components. It may be updated with emissions

11 inventories. So I actually prefer less

12 specificity rather than more at this point in

13 the review.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And so do I. I

15 mean, I was going to make the same comment

16 because I am not sure that we yet need yet

17 weigh in on a frequency. I don't think it is

18 something that we have deliberated on or given

19 enough thought to.

20 MEMBER AMAR: Just updating the

21 AAPI as appropriate. That gives everybody an

22 out.
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1 MEMBER WEATHERS: And part of it

2 is implied with a variable, the two words

3 "variable component."

4 MEMBER AMAR: Yes.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Though --

6 MEMBER HUSAR: Without being too

7 specific, we can still encourage EPA as if it

8 makes the policy documents more firm to

9 explain the manner in which the g(.) term is

10 set or given. Here it is, God given, so to

11 speak. Okay?

12 What is the nature of the manner

13 the ammonia term to be added? So what does it

14 mean to be modifying component? Evidently it

15 has some very specific implication here. So

16 that that way we are not saying what it should

17 be but how just that the document should be

18 explained. Because sooner or later, of

19 course, people will have to clear that up.

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Though I will

21 say that Brian brings up something that we

22 want to think about. I don't think we want to

Page 167

1 weigh in on it right now is at what point

2 might one bring in to the process observations

3 of ammonia and ammonium, as opposed to just

4 calculated values?

5 Because if, one of the questions

6 would be if you were at a location where you

7 are measuring NOy and SOX, if you also have

8 the ammonium contributors and can calculate

9 deposition, could that preferentially be used?

10 But that is something I don't

11 think we have talked about, we thought about,

12 but maybe down the road, maybe EPA could think

13 about that as well. Because that actually

14 does bring into the whole process a real

15 impetus or not to observe ammonia and ammonium

16 and I think actually provide the more natural

17 way to bring it in to the control paradigm. 

18 But that is for the future.

19 MEMBER CHESTNUT: How about we

20 just say a more realistic approach would be to

21 treat ammonia as a variable component of the

22 AAPI standard that can be updated?

Page 168

1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Oh.

2 MEMBER CHESTNUT: And just leave

3 it at that.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: How do people

5 like that?

6 MEMBER WEATHERS: Thumbs up.

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Naresh? 

8 Praveen?

9 MEMBER AMAR: I missed it. I'm

10 sorry.

11 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay, so it

12 would go that can be updated, period. Because

13 it doesn't even matter if it is the emissions

14 change. It could be something else.

15 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Right.

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: It could be an

17 improved modeling. You know, actually one

18 thing that is going to come down the pike and

19 we are not sure how quickly EPA would

20 integrate this is they are going to have this

21 by-directional flux calculation that people do

22 expect to change the ammonia levels in CMAQ

Page 169

1 and the deposition rates in CMAQ. So, it

2 could be due to all sorts of things.

3 MEMBER AMAR: All right, that's

4 good.

5 MEMBER WEATHERS: Congratulations,

6 Laurie, for breaking the gridlock.

7 (Laughter.)

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: She should be

9 in Congress.

10 Question 11.

11 MEMBER HUSAR: At the bottom of

12 this question ten, there is a transplant or a

13 piece that was added. Praveen, you haven't --

14 You know, this is that sentence or actually

15 the two sentences that I was talking about.

16 MEMBER AMAR: They are not --

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: No.

18 MEMBER HUSAR: The red ones that

19 we just added now and it refers to the further

20 need for clarification of the --

21 MEMBER AMAR: Trade-off.

22 MEMBER HUSAR: -- basically the
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1 concept, the trade-off of other functions of

2 the parts. But also that the equation of the

3 proposed standard is not set because it turns

4 out it is actually you need two equations. 

5 One for the flat part, presumably and the

6 other one is the actual variable where you

7 have this proportionality.

8 Hey, Rich, is it fair to say that

9 the actual presentation of the equation of the

10 kind that you have here would really need to

11 have two equations? One for the flat part and 

12 the other one is the linear part.

13 DR. SCHEFFE: Yes. It is not even

14 an equation for the flat part.

15 MEMBER HUSAR: Well but this

16 constant is still an equation.

17 DR. SCHEFFE: Right.

18 MEMBER HUSAR: There is an AAIP

19 for any value.

20 DR. SCHEFFE: Yes, we went over

21 that. That was an oversight on our part that

22 that is a conditional equation.

Page 171

1 MEMBER HUSAR: I understand.

2 DR. SCHEFFE: And that is only

3 applicable after you get past the nitrogen

4 saturation part of that diagram.

5 So your question?

6 MEMBER HUSAR: Well the question

7 is that actually there is more of a suggestion

8 here that the presenting that outcome, okay,

9 that AAIP, okay would be also helpful to do it

10 in terms of a damage function. Okay? 

11 What I mean is that normally in

12 order to be consistent with all of these other

13 kind of damage functions that are out there,

14 you would need to have something that says

15 AAIP as a function of sulfur and nitrogen. 

16 You see what I mean?

17 DR. SCHEFFE: Yes.

18 MEMBER HUSAR: That is how

19 normally you display these. Okay? And there

20 is none like that. There are all kinds of

21 other pieces in there but not the way the

22 dependence of the outcome damage as a function

Page 172

1 of the drivers.

2 DR. SCHEFFE: Sure. Sure. You

3 are talking about a way of communicating it

4 that brings the relevancy most directly to it.

5 MEMBER HUSAR: Well, yes. Because

6 any other way you are not telling what is the

7 relationship between you measure, your index

8 of the damage as a function of what you can

9 control.

10 DR. SCHEFFE: No, I understand. I

11 understand. And so you are suggesting?

12 MEMBER HUSAR: I am suggesting,

13 therefore, that the nature of that expression

14 really should be evaluated and even shown

15 graphically.

16 DR. SCHEFFE: Yes. Yes, okay. 

17 But again, we have those trade-off curves that

18 --

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I think Myron

20 can clarify something.

21 MEMBER MITCHELL: I have just a

22 thought that we are now on question 11 --

Page 173

1 MEMBER WEATHERS: Myron, can you

2 speak into the microphone, please?

3 MEMBER MITCHELL: -- and we have

4 26 questions.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, okay.

6 MEMBER MITCHELL: And some of us

7 are leaving early in the afternoon. So I just

8 want to be sure that we are all clear on how

9 we are proceeding.

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, because

11 someone moved their flight up.

12 (Laughter.)

13 MEMBER HUSAR: But the last

14 sentence AAPI equation proposed standards

15 should include a range of applicability. Is

16 that okay?

17 MEMBER AMAR: Yes.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes. Though as

19 Myron was bringing up, and actually, I should

20 just check this out, my understanding is that

21 Charlie and Myron have to leave shortly after

22 1:00?
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1 MEMBER MITCHELL: 1:00, yes. A

2 little before 1:00. Our flight leaves at

3 2:30.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Oh.

5 MEMBER MITCHELL: Leave at 2:00,

6 right?

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: It is close.

8 MEMBER HANSON: I'm leaving at

9 12:30.

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: 12:30. Okay. 

11 So given that, Rich is already done. Thank

12 you.

13 So I hate to sort of take a quick

14 detour. Charlie, let's --

15 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Do my questions?

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes and then we

17 will get back to the rest of the question in

18 Chapter 5. And so we will do Chapter 6,

19 Chapter 9, 5, 7. Go.

20 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Okay, I also had

21 actually, I had 11.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Oh, yes, you

Page 175

1 did.

2 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Yes, 11(a), I

3 should say.

4 So this question was about the

5 approach. And there is a certain amount of

6 redundancy with other questions but basically

7 it is saying that the panel believes that

8 steady-state models are the best approach but

9 recommends some consideration of using other

10 approaches, such as dynamic modeling and long11 term measurements to evaluate some of the

12 assumptions and impacts of the steady-state

13 approach.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: The reason she

15 is highlighting dynamic is if we replace that

16 with non-steady state.

17 MEMBER AMAR: Because we suggest

18 the same to be parallel.

19 MEMBER DRISCOLL: So what would be

20 the alternative besides? You mean like

21 empirical approaches? Is that the

22 alternative?

Page 176

1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: What to dynamic

2 or what?

3 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Well you say you

4 are differentiating between dynamic and non5 dynamic. So what would non-dynamic be besides

6 --

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: It would be

8 steady-state. The reason why, and this comes

9 from our physicist, you were out of the room

10 when our physicist brought this up, was that

11 dynamics has to do with forces, accelerations

12 and such. So he preferred non-steady state.

13 MEMBER AMAR: If you are okay with

14 that, Charlie.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: If you are okay

16 with that.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Well my

18 interpretation of dynamic would have a time

19 dependence, you know, where steady-state is

20 time independent, constant over time. And so

21 involving change, I would have a broader

22 definition of dynamic but I will yield to my

Page 177

1 colleague.

2 MEMBER HUSAR: I think dynamics is

3 still okay. Because it is only a mechanical

4 system where dynamics is the force --

5 MEMBER WEATHERS: Can you use the

6 microphone please?

7 MEMBER HUSAR: Only in the dynamic

8 -- Only in the mechanical systems, dynamic

9 requires the forces. But dynamic of more

10 complex chemicals and other kind of assistance

11 --

12 MEMBER MITCHELL: Okay, let's move

13 on.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: It is time. 

15 Yes, so dynamic is fine.

16 MEMBER POIROT: And I vote we

17 change it back in section four.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Sounds good.

19 MEMBER CHESTNUT: If the meaning

20 is clear in the field of how it is used, I

21 think --

22 MEMBER DRISCOLL: If we make the
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1 wording too generic, nobody will understand

2 what we are talking about.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay so keep

4 going. Well, first, does anyone have any

5 comments on this?

6 MEMBER MITCHELL: Just a

7 clarification that so Charlie is aware of the

8 discussion. Bryan brought up, he asked about

9 what we are really asking EPA to do in terms

10 of this particular effort. And I guess I am

11 asking one possibility would be, there has

12 been a fair amount of dynamic modeling output

13 that has been produced for certain sites.

14 Is it necessary for EPA to

15 actually do new dynamic modeling or is it the

16 possibility that some of this output that has

17 already been produced could be utilized in

18 this comparison?

19 MEMBER DRISCOLL: So in that

20 regard, towards the end of the document, I

21 took the liberty of putting in a plot which

22 shows a comparison between steady-state and

Page 179

1 dynamic to illustrate. And this is for a

2 glaciated system. So it is not as severe as

3 it would be for non-glaciated systems. But

4 some of the differences between dynamic and

5 steady-state.

6 So I think if you could rely on

7 existing data analysis just to inform the

8 process, that is where I become, at least in

9 terms of this very short time frame.

10 MEMBER MITCHELL: I think I agree

11 with that, Charlie. I think you have done a

12 lot of those models. Those outputs are

13 available.

14 MEMBER DRISCOLL: There is a lot

15 that has been done with MAGIC, too. But I

16 also think that down the road, if this goes

17 forward, there should be sort of a parallel

18 effort where you also have a dynamic modeling

19 component to guide this because there is no

20 time dependence and managers are going to want

21 to know how fast these systems recover. and

22 if it is going to take 200 years to get to

Page 180

1 steady-state, that may be a non-start. It

2 also may inform how much lower you would want

3 to reduce the emissions to try to accelerate

4 that process.

5 So I think that I have some

6 statement in there about building experience

7 in the use for future assessments. Because if

8 you look at what the Europeans have done, they

9 initially went entirely to steady-state models

10 and now they have recognized the limitations

11 of that so they increasingly used dynamic

12 models. So we don't need to reinvent the

13 wheel, hopefully.

14 MEMBER CHESTNUT: So do you want

15 to modify that in the middle there? It says

16 initiate an effort of dynamic modeling. Do

17 you want to --

18 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Yes. How about

19 take advantage of ongoing efforts in dynamic

20 modeling?

21 You could just get rid of that. 

22 You don't have to say a subset of the

Page 181

1 watersheds. I thought there would be some

2 value if you did this on the same watersheds

3 that were already being analysis with the

4 steady-state approach, but that may not be

5 possible. But you could get rid of that.

6 Other questions?

7 MEMBER MITCHELL: Just quickly, I

8 see Bryan just came into the room. We just

9 talked about the utilization of dynamic versus

10 steady-state models. The suggestion we put in

11 the document now is to include some of the

12 ongoing results and efforts on the dynamic

13 modeling and making some comparison. Is that

14 a reasonable approach from EPA?

15 DR. HUBBELL: I am just giving a

16 dynamic update. And the question is when we

17 differentiate between the glaciated and non18 glaciated areas, is there enough modeling,

19 dynamic modeling in the non-glaciated

20 environments to be able to inform that

21 discussion?

22 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Well there has
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1 been quite a bit of work done with MAGIC that

2 might be able to be used. I don't know. I am

3 just throwing this out there if it is a bad

4 idea. But I think it helps, you know, inform

5 some of the assumptions that are used.

6 DR. HUBBELL: It is certainly not

7 a bad recommendation. I just wanted to

8 clarify if there is enough of that or if we

9 are going to have to think about doing some,

10 looking to see whether are able to do any

11 additional modeling in those type of systems.

12 MEMBER DRISCOLL: I think there is

13 probably quite a bit of output from MAGIC but

14 I would have to talk to Jason Lynch of Jack

15 Cosby about that.

16 DR. HUBBELL: Yes, we will check

17 with Jason. He is our guy on this stuff.

18 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Yes.

19 DR. HUBBELL: So we will make sure

20 that we check. And this is obviously again,

21 it is unfortunate that Jason wasn't able to be

22 here today but this is one of the clear areas

Page 183

1 where we are going to take your

2 recommendations and sit down with Jason and go

3 through those.

4 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Okay, other

5 comments? Okay, if not the next question that

6 I did was on to Chapter 6.

7 So if you remember from yesterday,

8 I did some of these and my colleagues did

9 others. So I did 15, question 15. And again,

10 this is redundant with what I just did but

11 this just basically says that we endorse the

12 APPI approach. It seems appropriate for a

13 national scale assessment. But again, the

14 concerns about the non-steady-state assumption

15 and the degree to which that could be

16 evaluated would be helpful.

17 So very similar to what I had in

18 the last paragraph.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Comments? 

20 Works for me.

21 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Going, going,

22 gone.

Page 184

1 Let's see. The next is the

2 elements of the standard. I think I did this.

3 MEMBER WEATHERS: What number?

4 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Sixteen. I

5 think actually I didn't do this. Didn't you

6 do this, Naresh?

7 MEMBER KUMAR: I did 18.

8 MEMBER DRISCOLL: You did 18?

9 MEMBER KUMAR: Yes.

10 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Okay. It looks

11 like it was expanded from what I did, then.

12 MEMBER POIROT: What do you mean

13 Charlie by background levels of ANC in line

14 44?

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Microphone.

16 MEMBER POIROT: Background levels

17 of ANC in line 44?

18 MEMBER DRISCOLL: I'm not sure

19 that was my wording but I would assume it is

20 just pre-anthropogenic values. I mean, it is

21 used to sort of describe what that term is,

22 that background weathering term that is used

Page 185

1 in the equation, the AAPI equation.

2 MEMBER POIROT: Yes.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Line 12, next

4 page. Remove validation and its validation,

5 if you don't mind. Then on improvement of the

6 model performance of evaluation.

7 MEMBER WEATHERS: Did someone just

8 suggest replacing the word validation with

9 evaluation?

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

11 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes, I like

12 that. The paragraph that starts with line 16

13 where I am, I would just say, I would put a

14 period after AAPI.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And I might

16 just combine those last two paragraphs.

17 MEMBER DRISCOLL: So should we

18 move on?

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

20 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Has everybody

21 had a chance to read it?

22 Okay, so moving on to 17. And
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1 again, I think this is redundant with what was

2 said before. So I think basically we said

3 that there would be advantages to separating

4 out those terms in G, the background

5 weathering rate and the nitrogen cycling term. 

6 And this helps indicate the role that these

7 processes in the equation and also the

8 uncertainty in these processes in the

9 equation.

10 And then I put in, this is largely

11 my own doing, that they might want to consider

12 adding a term which accounts for the supply of

13 natural organic acids. So that is like the

14 second or third paragraph down there.

15 And then I had another sentence

16 about that I was concerned about recognition,

17 I guess of the waters with ANC values below 50

18 and acknowledgment that those may be naturally

19 acidic but those could be very sensitive

20 systems that have been impacted but are not

21 able to recover up to whatever the ANC limit

22 is of 50.

Page 187

1 So, it should be recognized that

2 these are potentially resources that, you

3 know, had been impacted but couldn't be

4 recovered, given the nature of the framework.

5 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Charlie, I don't

6 really understand that sentence that starts on

7 line 40, the panels concern.

8 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Okay, so we

9 talked about this yesterday. So there is like

10 an ANC limit of 50. So let's say you had a

11 system that started out as a background ANC of

12 20 or 25. It acidifies and then starts to

13 recover but it isn't able to recover up to 50. 

14 It may have been impacted but because of the

15 limit, that is the limit that is going to be

16 set. So there will be a certain level of

17 sulfate and nitrate that would allow for

18 recovery of the ANC to 50, as I understand it.

19 So what do you do with those

20 systems that may have had viable resources but

21 were right on the margin, very, very highly

22 sensitive systems? And acknowledgment that

Page 188

1 there is a subset of systems that are highly

2 sensitive that might not be recoverable. I

3 think that is what I was trying to get at in

4 that sentence. And so I think there should be

5 acknowledgment of that.

6 Do you have a comment, Naresh?

7 MEMBER KUMAR: Yes. I guess I

8 understand that a limit of 50 were used in the

9 calculation but there was no discussion of any

10 possible levels in this meeting. So I don't

11 understand why we need to mention anything

12 related to levels here. Because we did not

13 discuss --

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Keep going.

15 MEMBER KUMAR: Yes, so I would

16 recommend not including this, at least at this

17 stage until we have some discussion of it

18 maybe in the next round.

19 MEMBER DRISCOLL: That's fine. I

20 just wanted some discussion about it so it was

21 a little bit more explicit in the document.

22 MEMBER CHESTNUT: You could make

Page 189

1 it more generic concerned about addressing

2 waters where, you know, that aren't

3 recoverable or that are --

4 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Yes, or it may

5 be premature. Maybe it will be more evident

6 in the next round. You know, whatever the

7 panel wants to do.

8 MEMBER CHESTNUT: But you are

9 making a distinction between these and places

10 where there is natural -- it is naturally

11 acidic below that.

12 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Yes, I think

13 both occur. There are systems that are

14 naturally acidic. You know, that have always

15 had very low ANCs probably because of organic

16 acids. But there are also systems that are

17 also acidic but also have been impacted, very

18 highly sensitive systems.

19 MEMBER CHESTNUT: And they are

20 beyond repair, is what you are saying.

21 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Well they may

22 be. It depends on what you set for your ANC
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1 limit. Right? You can set it to low enough

2 value that you might recover them up. But I

3 think it is likely, given what we are seeing

4 in the trends that there are systems that had

5 a fishery at one point in time, have acidified

6 and it seems unlikely it will be able to

7 recover that fishery.

8 MEMBER CHESTNUT: So what should

9 EPA, I mean, what needs to be done to address

10 that?

11 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Well, I just

12 think that there are -- we talked a little bit

13 yesterday that there is going to be some level

14 of sites that will be recoverable, if you

15 will. And not 100 percent of the sites are

16 going to be recoverable. And I think that,

17 you know, so I think that that is appropriate,

18 that there is going to have to be some

19 explicit acknowledgment that you make some

20 sort of a decision about what is the level,

21 you know, this level the standard, what is the

22 percentage of lakes that were impacted that

Page 191

1 will be recoverable.

2 And we had some distribution

3 curves that I think Tara showed, somebody

4 showed, yesterday, which basically showed a

5 cumulative distribution of sort of the level

6 of recovery. So I imagine that there is going

7 to be, it would be something along those

8 lines. So Brian was talking about details of

9 the curves, if you will and where the

10 implications of the tails of the curves. And

11 I think that what I am looking for is some

12 additional discussion on that.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So I think

14 someone suggested removing it. But I don't

15 think we want to totally remove it.

16 DR. HUBBELL: This is Bryan. I

17 would say that actually, when we looked at

18 your graph, that actually sparked actually

19 some though process for Tara and myself to

20 talk about. Because we did talk about

21 excluding certain, I mean, whether it is 50 or

22 20 or whatever, --

Page 192

1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Right.

2 DR. HUBBELL: -- we talked about

3 excluding some of those lakes a priori when we

4 calculated the critical loads. And your point

5 about that made us think well is that really

6 what we want to do. If we are looking at a

7 level of 100, you exclude an awful lot of

8 lakes.

9 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Right.

10 DR. HUBBELL: And so I think we

11 need something different there and we need to

12 think about that some more, maybe to address

13 the fraction that is addressable through our

14 recovered processes, rather than addressing

15 the component is dominated by the organic

16 acids, etcetera.

17 So I think we need to be thinking

18 about that but certainly it would be helpful

19 to have the comment that it is a good thing

20 for us to consider. So I was just going to

21 say, it was a valuable comment, even if you

22 take it out now. It will help us think. So

Page 193

1 however you want to do that because it is a

2 valuable concept.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And Rudy, were

4 you saying something?

5 I was just thinking that if we

6 removed "the panel is concerned . . ." just go

7 to studies have shown that" -- Well, actually

8 don't. Go to the sentence don't not you can

9 go with everybody else. 

10 Studies have shown that

11 chronically acidic or highly acid sensitive

12 surface waters are among the most highly

13 impacted from acid deposition. Justification

14 for -- this is where it gets tough. 

15 Justification for not considering these most

16 acid-sensitive and acid-impacted surface

17 waters.

18 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Maybe since this

19 is a work in progress, maybe we should just

20 strike the whole thing if they are going to

21 rethink how they are doing it.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.
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1 MEMBER DRISCOLL: And then I

2 didn't intend this to have -- I was just

3 trying to capture the comments from yesterday. 

4 So maybe it would be best just to wait and see

5 what --

6 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Can it be

7 something more generic just for them to

8 reconsider how they are going to address --

9 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Or acknowledge

10 the systems that are not, the extent of the

11 systems that are not recoverable or something

12 like that?

13 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Or take account

14 of the systems that are, you know.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I mean I

16 wouldn't mind what as Charlie is suggesting

17 and what Brian has said is that they know,

18 they got the gist of --

19 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes, but it is

20 good to have it --

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

22 MEMBER CHESTNUT: -- documented

Page 195

1 just so they can --

2 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Okay, then we

3 need some language.

4 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Okay. How about

5 some consideration of highly acid-impacted and

6 acid-sensitive systems that are not

7 recoverable under an ANC limit should be

8 discussed in the next report.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So some

10 consideration of the chronically acidic or

11 highly acid-sensitive surface waters.

12 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Yes.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Highly

14 sensitive. Highly acid-sensitive surface

15 waters.

16 MEMBER DRISCOLL: That would not

17 be recoverable at a given ANC limit should be

18 given in the next report. Something like

19 that.

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Should be given

21 in the next PA.

22 MEMBER DRISCOLL: PA?

Page 196

1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: In the next

2 draft of the PA and then get rid of the rest.

3 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Is that better? 

4 Should we move on?

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

6 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Okay, so the

7 next is -- I am going to just go right through

8 the ones I have got?

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

10 MEMBER DRISCOLL: So the next one

11 is 19 that I did. That is the trade-off

12 curves. And so I said that I thought that the

13 panel thinks that the trade-off curves are a

14 useful approach to think about this problem,

15 particularly the multi-pollutant problem. 

16 And then, that is what I said, I

17 took the liberty of putting in the similar

18 curves that we have developed with dynamic

19 models. We can get rid of this -- I just did

20 that just because I talked about it yesterday

21 so that we could get rid of the figure.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I mean, I don't

Page 197

1 see why we need to get rid of it.

2 MEMBER DRISCOLL: So I think that

3 this shows, so I think the reason why I showed

4 this is because this sort of informs the

5 nature of steady-state versus dynamic. So in

6 the theoretical framework that was put forward

7 for when you were on the angled portion of the

8 curve, it has a slope of one. One equivalent

9 of sulfate will do the same thing as one

10 equivalent of nitrate.

11 But these dynamic model curves

12 suggest that they don't have this Stokey

13 metric and that is due to the processes that

14 are occurring within the system.

15 It also illustrates that these

16 lines are lines of equal ANC. It also shows

17 the panel on the left is for steady-state and

18 the panel on the right is for just an

19 arbitrary year 2030. And so you can see that

20 over time the ANC values increase. So that

21 illustrates the difference between the dynamic

22 and steady-state values.
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1 So anyway, I just put that in

2 there. So again, this was a suggestion that

3 they could use dynamic models to illustrate

4 some of the assumptions associated with a

5 steady state approach.

6 Are we good? I'm not pushing

7 things through too quickly, am I?

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: No.

9 MEMBER DRISCOLL: All right, good. 

10 With that, I will go on.

11 Then the next one was the

12 averaging. And again, this has been covered

13 previously, single year versus multi-year. 

14 And so I said we supported a multi-year

15 approach. We thought three years would be

16 good. It is probably minimal to try to sort

17 out the year to year variations. I think

18 largely due to climate. But I think we said

19 yesterday that we would support even more, if

20 that was possible, four or five years.

21 Good? All right.

22 All right, then 21 is about

Page 199

1 monitoring. And I had a very long section and

2 I think Rich had a section. And this was cut

3 way back and I have no problem with that. But

4 I think it would be good to add a little bit

5 to the end, in the end the last line, which is

6 talking about the time and LTM programs.

7 So I thought, I had a little bit

8 of text in there talking about advantages to

9 adding additional monitoring, such as soil

10 monitoring and biological monitoring because

11 those are going to be important endpoints and

12 we have virtually no information on those

13 resources.

14 So, I for one would like to see a

15 sentence saying that we would be interested in

16 expanding to include some soils and biological

17 monitoring programs to the existing programs.

18 MEMBER AMAR: Also 21, the

19 question itself, I think is incorrect. The

20 second part, is for they. I think you want to

21 say "Are the proposed three ambient

22 measurements sufficient?"

Page 200

1 If you notice question 21, top

2 line, end of the first line, 18.

3 Yes, the question itself is not

4 said correctly, 21. Line 18, the end of the

5 line. Instead of saying "is for three

6 proposed" it should say "are three proposed

7 ambient measurements sufficient."

8 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Charlie?

9 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Yes, we could

10 probably get rid of monitoring. We could just

11 either say expansion of existing programs to

12 include some soil and biological monitoring.

13 And I think that is all I had.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Then 22 is --

15 Actually you are part of 21 and then also 22. 

16 And since you are also leaving us shortly.

17 MEMBER POIROT: Right, 22 was

18 asking about using the existing NOy and PM2.5

19 sulfate measurement techniques as the basis

20 for defining federal reference methods. And

21 I tried to kind of say yes, those are

22 reasonable in both cases to put a few cautions

Page 201

1 on the simple extension of currently NOy

2 monitoring techniques that there are going to

3 be some bugs that are currently being worked

4 out. But by and large, the methods are sound.

5 In addition, recommending that we

6 have the M's Monitoring and Methods Committee

7 provides some feedback and advice on how to

8 measure those species, in addition to other

9 key species such as gaseous ammonia and

10 organic nitrates. I don't know if that was

11 taking it too far, Ted or not.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: No.

13 MEMBER POIROT: But it seems like

14 we have talked about those two things quite a

15 bit. We might as well.

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I think they go

17 in here.

18 MEMBER POIROT: I see a typo in

19 the last line of routine. That would be

20 routing.

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, that

22 should be routing.
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1 MEMBER POIROT: You know the one

2 thing I left out, I took out a sentence I had

3 after the first one about fine particle

4 sulfate saying something about how CASNET

5 approaches using open-faced non-size-specific

6 sampling should produce similar results. I

7 put it in there because I thought some purist

8 might say oh but fine particles are not the

9 only sulfate that deposits. And I didn't want

10 people saying that we have to put fine

11 particle heads on CASNET samples because there

12 are other problems with that.

13 But I took it out because I

14 figured if somebody is going to make an

15 argument that course particle sulfate

16 deposition is really important in these remote

17 ecosystems, they should recognize that it

18 comes typically carrying its own buffering

19 cation. It is not there but for the crystal

20 cation or the sea salt cation that helped

21 deliver it. So that is why I left it out.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Anything else

Page 203

1 on 22? Thank you. Myron. So now we are

2 moving to Chapter 9.

3 MEMBER AMAR: May I have one

4 question?

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

6 MEMBER AMAR: Question 12, which

7 really is Richard's point of view and I wrote

8 it and Richard is leaving. I don't know,

9 Myron are you leaving, too? I am just trying

10 to find out the timing here. But I would

11 rather have Richard here when we talk about

12 question 12.

13 MEMBER POIROT: I mea leaving in

14 ten minutes.

15 MEMBER AMAR: Okay. Question 12 I

16 think I might need input also. I think you

17 added something, Paul. There is some language

18 I did not see before. I am just trying to get

19 it.

20 Question 12 I think starts with

21 Paul and then my summary of what Rich had

22 said. That it is not well written at this

Page 204

1 time.

2 MEMBER POIROT: Yes, somebody ask

3 me to contribute something.

4 MEMBER AMAR: Yes, so I just

5 wanted to make sure.

6 MEMBER POIROT: I'm not married to

7 it.

8 MEMBER AMAR: Okay.

9 MEMBER MITCHELL: Twelve. Right?

10 MEMBER AMAR: Yes, number 12.

11 MEMBER POIROT: I guess Praveen,

12 if you were taking the last couple of

13 sentences, 39 through 41 from my comments, --

14 MEMBER AMAR: Yes.

15 MEMBER POIROT: -- I would like to

16 pull a Husar-like argument with myself.

17 MEMBER AMAR: We only have five

18 minutes, though.

19 MEMBER POIROT: I think I am a

20 Republican after all. It doesn't matter what

21 I said yesterday.

22 I think that is, I don't know

Page 205

1 about ideal, but that it would be ideal

2 indicators would show. I don't know if that

3 is correct.

4 MEMBER AMAR: Yes.

5 MEMBER POIROT: You know, what if

6 we were to say something like the range

7 currently considered seems rather broad,

8 considered to the ANC range of 50 to 100 and,

9 ideally, could be narrowed in future

10 assessments or something like that.

11 MEMBER AMAR: Where is the

12 pleasure of the -- Yes, that kind of takes it

13 away from ideal in part.

14 MEMBER POIROT: What does Paul

15 think about that?

16 MEMBER HANSON: Well there is just

17 a general premise here that there is a way to

18 combine the two and I am not sure that exists. 

19 I think the aquatic systems have been

20 developed based on ANC and the relationships

21 that are known for upland terrestrial systems

22 are based on base cation aluminum ratios. It
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1 would be great if they could be combined. I

2 am not convinced that they can be combined. 

3 I am not sure we should spend a lot of time

4 trying to combine them.

5 MEMBER DRISCOLL: How about might

6 be narrowed in future assessments?

7 As long as we are on that line,

8 can we put after 100 microequivalents per

9 liter and after ten BC/AL so we have the

10 specific units? It is actually under recently

11 used symbols if you want the fourth one over,

12 fifth one over.

13 MEMBER POIROT: And then you could

14 delete the last sentence. Right?

15 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Yes.

16 MEMBER AMAR: And then line 43,

17 then we are saying, which I think what you

18 were saying, Rich is not consistent but what

19 we are saying right in the beginning of this

20 part, saying maybe you should not make an

21 effort to have joint standards. And this one

22 says we should. So it is one or the other or

Page 207

1 some in-between position.

2 So I think the question is can a

3 good argument be made or not made to have

4 joint standards? So keep aquatic as it is and

5 terrestrial as it is, not mix up BC to AL

6 ratio with ANC.

7 MEMBER HANSON: I think that, I

8 mean, for me that is where the reality lies.

9 MEMBER AMAR: I mean, I claim no

10 expertise. I am just looking at the point of

11 view.

12 MEMBER HANSON: I mean some of

13 these other questions come to this issue, too. 

14 And I think what I heard discussed yesterday

15 was that people were leaning towards a focus

16 on the aquatic system because the general

17 overall database was more intact and

18 defensible. And a general sense that there

19 was a higher level of sensitivity there. So

20 if you protected it, it would protect the

21 terrestrial.

22 MEMBER DRISCOLL: I don't buy

Page 208

1 that. I think the soils are more sensitive

2 than the aquatic. Soils are continuing to

3 acidify. The aquatics are recovering, for the

4 most part. At least in the northeast. Maybe

5 not in the southeast.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: People like

7 what --

8 MEMBER HANSON: This is a case

9 where we need to beg for simpler questions in

10 the future. 

11 (Laughter.)

12 MEMBER HANSON: This is an

13 impossible question to craft a concise answer

14 to.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

16 MEMBER DRISCOLL: We could just

17 say something, rather than a good argument, we

18 could say something like, if appropriate both

19 ANC and BC/AL could be used or appropriate --

20 that is not right, is it? Appropriate. So

21 just before you type anything, something like

22 if appropriate aquatic or terrestrial

Page 209

1 indicators for the more sensitive system could

2 be used or might be used to protect the lesser

3 sensitive system. However, this would need

4 further evaluation or something like that. Do

5 you understand what I am saying or is it too

6 confusing?

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I understand

8 what you are saying. If appropriate, the

9 terrestrial -- So see if we can pick this up.

10 MEMBER DRISCOLL: The indicators

11 for the more sensitive ecosystem could be used

12 to protect the lesser sensitive ecosystem. 

13 However, this would need further evaluation.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: If appropriate,

15 the indicator for the more sensitive ecosystem

16 can be used to provide protection for the less

17 sensitive ecosystem. I'm not sure I heard a

18 however.

19 MEMBER DRISCOLL: However, this

20 would require --

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Oh, that's

22 right.
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1 MEMBER DRISCOLL: -- further

2 evaluation. You might say rather than can,

3 you might say could, could be used.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So, --

5 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Delete the rest

6 of that paragraph or no?

7 MEMBER DRISCOLL: I am a little

8 confused by it.

9 MEMBER HANSON: I think what you

10 are saying is that they should just use the

11 most restrictive AAPI that they come up with.

12 Right?

13 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Right.

14 MEMBER HANSON: And don't put it

15 in units of lakes, for my benefit.

16 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Yes, it should

17 just be surface waters.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So modifying

19 the rest of this paragraph with ANC and BC/AL,

20 it could be used as ecological indicators,

21 period. And even that I am not taken with.

22 MEMBER DRISCOLL: You could say to

Page 211

1 protect ecosystems against acidification, be

2 like that.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes. And maybe

4 and get rid of "and potentially?"

5 MEMBER DRISCOLL: So this second

6 part of the sentence is a little bit

7 different. I mean, we are talking about use

8 of aquatic to protect terrestrial or vice9 versa. But the second part deals with more

10 spatial variability and scaling across space. 

11 So you might have some part of the watershed

12 where there is very sensitive conditions and

13 that is sort of overwhelmed by the larger part

14 of the watershed that has least sensitive

15 conditions. So it seems like it is like two

16 different thoughts.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes. I am

18 tempted to actually lose the last sentence. 

19 So let's get rid of the last sentence.

20 MEMBER AMAR: The next paragraph

21 is a different concept.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

Page 212

1 MEMBER AMAR: It kind of brings a

2 new point up what Rich had been saying about

3 TMD and approach and EPA should pay attention

4 to that, I guess.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Comments on it?

6 MEMBER AMAR: And the last one

7 starting a line eight, that simply says this

8 whole business about Chesapeake Bay and have

9 a better, I don't know, through modeling or

10 measurement, a clear understanding of the

11 fraction from atmospheric deposition.

12 My sense was we are not sure.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Well and also

14 that they weren't sure that they could show

15 how reducing nitrogen deposition would --

16 MEMBER AMAR: May or may not help.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, may or may

18 not help.

19 MEMBER AMAR: But even before we

20 get to that judgment, the quantification

21 itself, I think. I think REA had description

22 as much as 40 percent for Chesapeake Bay

Page 213

1 coming from atmospheric deposition. In other

2 places, it is less than 40.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Any

4 modifications to what Praveen has?

5 And actually, can establish

6 reliable standards. It is, even they need to

7 come up with an indicator. Because right now

8 we have ANC as the indicator but we don't have

9 any indicator for --

10 MEMBER AMAR: I think you are

11 right. That is I think what should have been

12 meant, reliable ecological indicators.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: An appropriate

14 ecological indicator and reliable standards. 

15 Ecological indicator.

16 MEMBER AMAR: One more point, all

17 the surgery we did for line 43 and 44 and if

18 you go at the beginning of this thing,

19 beginning of answer to question 12, that is

20 what Paul had said, which kind of says

21 problematic, doing this thing together.

22 So are we consistent within our
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1 own answer?

2 MEMBER HANSON: It is difficult

3 because the question asks about five different

4 disjointed things. They illuminate the first

5 paragraph. If it will move us along, that

6 will make me happy. Fine by me.

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So how about

8 removing the first sentence? Thoughts?

9 MEMBER CHESTNUT: The first

10 sentence of which?

11 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: The development

12 of a single standard.

13 MEMBER KUMAR: I didn't follow. 

14 What is the reason for removing that? I

15 thought we agreed on --

16 MEMBER HANSON: I think it is

17 true. I don't know if it -- It doesn't

18 necessarily need to be there. 

19 MEMBER MITCHELL: It doesn't add

20 to the picture. Right?

21 MEMBER HANSON: Right.

22 MEMBER MITCHELL: Take it out.

Page 215

1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I mean it is

2 again, --

3 MEMBER MITCHELL: And the other

4 statement is becoming implicit that that is

5 the case.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

7 MEMBER MITCHELL: So I guess to

8 make that clear then, so probably at line 45,

9 probably ecological indicators and the like.

10 Obviously we are not going to say

11 an indicator for aquatic and terrestrial

12 systems. Right?

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

14 MEMBER MITCHELL: And that kind of

15 echoes that situation.

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Indicate?

17 MEMBER MITCHELL: Yes, appropriate

18 ecological indicators.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes. Other

20 comments on it?

21 Thirteen. What? Oh, 11(b), (c),

22 (d), and (e).

Page 216

1 So Kathleen, you are up. Eleven

2 B. Kathleen, are you there?

3 MEMBER POIROT: It's lunchtime. 

4 She went to lunch.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay, (b), (c),

6 (d) is Rich, (e) we are back to Praveen.

7 MEMBER AMAR: Okay, (e) is back to

8 again nitrogen. So what we said earlier, we

9 want to make sure that this is consistent with

10 what we just agreed on.

11 It says structure is good. It

12 takes into account nitrogen deposition but it

13 does so by controlling for ammonia as a

14 constant external variable.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I would remove

16 as a constant external variable.

17 MEMBER AMAR: Okay. It was true,

18 I guess, as of yesterday.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: But it no

20 longer is true.

21 MEMBER AMAR: Okay so this would

22 lead to over or under protection. This

Page 217

1 language is coming from the executive summary. 

2 The better ammonia approach is to -- okay. 

3 Explicitly. Okay again, I am back to this

4 ammonia is a significant precursor.

5 So maybe just copy the language

6 from what you did before or at least be

7 consistent with.

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay so where

9 we would pick it up from?

10 MEMBER AMAR: The one we had right

11 under question ten. That is the modified

12 language, where the reds are in ten. Let's

13 see. However, as currently proposed -- That

14 is line 20. I can't say it is good but you

15 know, starting 20 we start raising questions

16 about ammonia.

17 So from 20 to 28, that language,

18 some form of that should show up under

19 question what are we doing 13?

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: We might just

21 refer back to our comment.

22 MEMBER AMAR: That is one way to
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1 do it.

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, I would

3 just refer back to our comments in charge

4 question ten.

5 MEMBER AMAR: Yes, I think, yes,

6 see the answer about. Yes, that will suffice. 

7 I am not saying anything different here.

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And then I

9 think we can remove the rest of that

10 paragraph.

11 Okay? Other comments on this one? 

12 Thirteen. Naresh.

13 MEMBER KUMAR: Yes. So this is

14 where we introduce the sensitivity study that

15 we were talking about yesterday. So I guess

16 we have to read the language whether it is

17 okay with the panel. But the main thing is in

18 the end I did quote an example on how that

19 calculation could be done in the sensitivity

20 calculation.

21 So in the current AAPI equation

22 for example, you could calculate the VECO using

Page 219

1 the two different approaches.

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: You mean NECO. 

3 Right?

4 MEMBER AMAR: NECO. Sorry.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: We have too

6 many V's in there as it is.

7 MEMBER AMAR: And for BC term, see

8 I was not very clear on how that would be

9 estimated. So I just put that and we use a

10 prior range. So if anyone else has a better

11 idea on how that could be done, we could do

12 that.

13 But and then for the estimate of

14 Q, that could be based on different years. I

15 mean, dry versus wet area you are going to

16 have a very different estimate for Q term.

17 And then the other three terms, I

18 think using different air quality model

19 simulations, that may already be available. 

20 So EPA doesn't have to do new modeling when

21 they could have used the CMAQ and CAMx

22 simulation for different years. If possible,

Page 220

1 the different ecological conditions and

2 different air emissions and also if they have

3 simulations available or if they can conduct

4 new simulation with different chemical

5 mechanisms, that will also help.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And what I

7 would say, use CMAQ, CAMx, or other model. 

8 Just RMs might be able to provide some

9 information.

10 MEMBER MITCHELL: I guess I would

11 strike out the last one, using different

12 chemical mechanisms. That is going to get

13 into a very different type of, almost a

14 research type of issue versus a --

15 MEMBER KUMAR: But different

16 chemical mechanisms could get very different

17 results. If they have similar -- because EPA

18 might already have CMAQ with CV5 and separate

19 mechanisms available. So if they have, why

20 not use both? I mean, we are not asking them

21 to do new research here.

22 MEMBER MITCHELL: I think you just

Page 221

1 compare the different model outputs in terms

2 of what we want to do is probably --

3 MEMBER KUMAR: This is just being

4 more specific.

5 MEMBER MITCHELL: Yes.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Anything else

7 on 13?

8 MEMBER AMAR: Line 11 I am just a

9 little picky with. Uncertainties alone? I

10 would say rather than the uncertainties by

11 themselves, not alone. Same meaning.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So by

13 themselves?

14 MEMBER AMAR: Yes, not stand

15 alone.

16 MEMBER DRISCOLL: How about in

17 line 14, rather than it would be good, it

18 would be helpful if all the uncertainties?

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

20 MEMBER MITCHELL: Just as a point

21 of clarification, I thought during yesterday

22 we discussed the two approaches for NECO; one
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1 which gives you just the nitration

2 concentration, the other actually looks at the

3 mechanisms of uptake and denitrification. I

4 thought that we concluded that that former

5 method is almost impossible to do. So I am

6 not sure it is a worthwhile exercise to do an

7 uncertainty analysis of something which really 

8 is not going to -- there is so much

9 uncertainty in each of those individual

10 measures, I am not sure it is going to be the

11 best time and use associated with this

12 uncertainty analysis. I don't know if others

13 on the panel agree or disagree with that.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: No, I mean, I

15 just looked at it, or I can see since it is

16 one way of coming up with that, even though it

17 may not be useful or what they should use in

18 their application, just do we have another

19 approach that makes sense on this one?

20 MEMBER MITCHELL: Just that I

21 think the staff suggested these two different

22 approaches and I guess I am just suggesting

Page 223

1 the one approach with the more detailed

2 mechanisms, those mechanisms really are very

3 well quantified. And I just think it might

4 not be a good use of time in terms of this

5 effort.

6 There is other places where all

7 kinds of uncertainty analysis can be done. So

8 focus on those.

9 MEMBER KUMAR: And we did not

10 discuss 11(b) that talked about this term. So

11 what was the reason for not discussing that?

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Kathleen wasn't

13 on the phone.

14 MEMBER KUMAR: Oh, okay.

15 So maybe we can come back to this

16 after discussing 11(b)?

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes but one

18 thing I want to do is two gentlemen are

19 unplugging their laptops, is we are about to

20 lose quorum, I believe. So I think everyone

21 has had a chance to read the letter and we are

22 almost all the way through the questions. And

Page 224

1 assuming that we do not change the flavor of

2 the letter, what I would like to do is get

3 everyone's approval for us to continue

4 wordsmithing after going through our exercise

5 here and then getting the letter back to the

6 committee for further editing.

7 So basically asking for a vote

8 that we approve the letter with the allowance

9 of us to do further editing on -- how do you

10 put that? Essentially not on content but on -

11 -

12 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Non-substantive

13 clarification.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: -- on non15 substantive issues.

16 MEMBER DRISCOLL: So moved.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Seconded?

18 MEMBER KUMAR: I second it.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay, all in

20 favor?

21 (Chorus of ayes.)

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: All opposed?

Page 225

1 (No response.)

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Good but don't

3 leave until you really have to.

4 Kathleen, you are still not there. 

5 Right?

6 DR. HUBBELL: I had one

7 clarification to ask on this. In the previous

8 statements about uncertainty, you acknowledged

9 that it would be impractical at this point to

10 try to do a probabilistic assessment. The

11 wording of this particular response where you

12 say propagate the uncertainty is to arrive at

13 an ensemble of this NECO and Noy response

14 service to provide a confidence interval. 

15 Confidence interval implies that we are doing

16 a probabilistic estimate and that is going to

17 be really difficult to do here.

18 I think what you are recommending

19 is that you want us to take the multiple

20 sensitivities and propagate them through so we

21 can actually see how they affect the final

22 results, as well as the individual components
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1 of the standard, which I think is a great

2 idea.

3 But in terms of providing a

4 confidence interval, it means we would have to

5 specify distributions for each of the elements

6 and then propagate them through, which I think 

7 we really, really --

8 MEMBER KUMAR: I am okay changing

9 that to range.

10 DR. HUBBELL: Yes, range would, I

11 think, be better.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: That would be

13 good. A different range.

14 MEMBER KUMAR: Next line.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Keep going. 

16 Line 19. So remove confidence interval and

17 put range.

18 MEMBER AMAR: Propagate, ensemble,

19 and confidence level, that is all coming from

20 kind of Monte Carlo stuff.

21 MEMBER KUMAR: Not necessarily.

22 MEMBER AMAR: No?

Page 227

1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: No. I mean,

2 ensemble could actually there infer set.

3 Okay, that was 13. Any other

4 comments on that?

5 Actually before you two go, do you

6 have any other ways that they might estimate

7 or come up with a confidence -- not a

8 confidence but different values for NECO that

9 could be used?

10 MEMBER MITCHELL: No. I mean,

11 there are two ways. Right? How you come up

12 with those values? I think the second method

13 is almost an empirical value while the first

14 is that series of calculations?

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

16 MEMBER MITCHELL: So I guess you

17 could try to look at some places where they

18 have different empirical measurements and how

19 much that varies.

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. So that

21 would be --

22 MEMBER MITCHELL: Yes and I don't

Page 228

1 think there is much else you can do. Do you

2 agree Charlie?

3 MEMBER DRISCOLL: Yes, I mentioned

4 yesterday there are also some nitrogen models

5 that could be applied. But given the time, I

6 think that the empirical method is really the

7 path of least resistance.

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. So, --

9 DR. HUBBELL: I think we got that

10 yesterday. We said we can try it in a couple

11 of locations and the existing work has already

12 been done with the nitrogen model and we will

13 try to think about that.

14 MEMBER DRISCOLL: The nitrogen

15 modeling isn't very good.

16 DR. HUBBELL: Okay.

17 (Laughter.)

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So calculate NECO

19 using different empirical, different observed

20 levels?

21 MEMBER HANSON: I think that

22 works. The problem, it is not a problem

Page 229

1 because it is just that you don't know what

2 NECO is if there is zero leaching. You just

3 know that it is not less than N-leaching.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Right.

5 MEMBER HANSON: It could be ten

6 times more than that but you won't know that.

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Levels not --

8 Fourteen. We are back to you, Praveen.

9 MEMBER AMAR: Fourteen was the

10 easiest one. We said we liked the figures and

11 the tables and more would be good.

12 Rich had a lot of detailed

13 questions which I simply referenced here

14 saying comments are included, you know, in

15 usual comments. I think that is what I

16 said. Unless somebody objects,

17 I thought they had done a good job with

18 figures and tables and maps where they had

19 them.

20 MEMBER HUSAR: The red sentence,

21 is there just a spliced into basically affirm

22 that if anything referred to had more tables
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1 and figures, in particular a separate

2 conceptual diagram, that would be added to

3 show the physical meaning of each of the term

4 in the APPI.

5 MEMBER AMAR: Now that point, it

6 is not in my portion.

7 MEMBER HUSAR: No, I just -- that

8 is why it is up here.

9 MEMBER AMAR: Okay. No, I like

10 it. It looks great.

11 MEMBER KUMAR: Again, sorry for

12 nitpicking but I think we should remove the

13 last sentence because it just means that we

14 are not emphasizing it for other questions.

15 MEMBER AMAR: Yes, I tried to

16 avoid writing all of what Rich had said but

17 that is what I was trying to say.

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Paul, you are

19 up.

20 MEMBER KUMAR: Number 18 has not

21 been done.

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Oh, number 18

Page 231

1 hasn't been done. Sorry about that. 

2 Eighteen, Naresh.

3 MEMBER KUMAR: I guess this is

4 where it specifically asks for these terms

5 using CMAQ modeling and what the panel thinks

6 about that. 

7 So I guess we all have been

8 mentioning that we need to see more model

9 evaluation of CMAQ brought in into this

10 document. And I just laid down some of the

11 sources of uncertainty that I believe are

12 relevant for NECO and NoY terms.

13 Since we go further down, and then

14 we are going to come back to look at the

15 language. So this is where I wrote what

16 different evaluations are needed. And these

17 are not available. I think they were done

18 earlier but not at the daily or weekly average

19 quantities. So I think that is important,

20 what I have in the parentheses.

21 So basically, recommending NO2,

22 SO2, nitrate, ammonium, and sulfate, where for

Page 232

1 networks where we had routine data available

2 and model performance for deposition and a DP

3 network.

4 And also a more detailed

5 evaluation could be done using the SEARCH

6 network in the southeastern U.S., even though

7 that is a regional evaluation. But I think it

8 is better to do that than not doing anything. 

9 So those are the recommendations, 

10 specific recommendations for model performance

11 evaluation.

12 Now we can go back up, look at the

13 language.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And this

15 language, that is something we can pick up. 

16 I mean, it will get modified when we edit it. 

17 So, it is more conceptual.

18 MEMBER AMAR: And a picking point,

19 I mean, the question itself, line three, we

20 keep on saying concentration to deposition

21 ratio. It is really deposition to

22 concentration ratio just mathematically. The

Page 233

1 last of the units is deposition to

2 concentration, not the other way around.

3 Because velocity is deposition,

4 which is a flux proportion of the

5 concentration, the ration of the --

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, so that

7 goes to balance.

8 MEMBER AMAR: Okay.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So did you guys

10 get that?

11 DR. HUBBELL: What was that again?

12 MEMBER AMAR: I mean, every time

13 you say concentration to deposition ratio, it

14 is really deposition to concentration ratio.

15 DR. HUBBELL: Yes. We are still

16 trying to make sure we are doing that

17 correctly. That is why sometimes we have one

18 over V and Rich's job is next --

19 MEMBER AMAR: To be consistent.

20 DR. HUBBELL: -- to draft our

21 limitation and units policeman.

22 MEMBER AMAR: Actually you have
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1 got V there, which is velocity. So you know,

2 just to be correct.

3 DR. HUBBELL: Yes, we are going to

4 make sure we get that exactly right next time.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And do you know

6 what letters you are going to use?

7 DR. HUBBELL: We were thinking

8 about T.

9 MEMBER POIROT: Transmission or

10 transformation. It is all exactly right. It

11 is just incredibly unclear.

12 (Laughter.)

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay, you can

14 tell we are losing it a 1:00.

15 MEMBER AMAR: I'm hungry.

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: With that,

17 Paul.

18 MEMBER HANSON: Chapter 7, as

19 written in the first draft, is relatively

20 brief. A chapter dealing with the idea or the

21 concept that there was some way to relate

22 acid-based versus nutrient enrichment-based

Page 235

1 interpretation of the API. 

2 And so what I did to generate

3 these texts was to go to the written comments

4 that various people had. I combined them and

5 then I circulated them last night and got

6 feedback from Kathleen, who is no longer on

7 the phone and Dale who is no longer on the

8 phone. But so in some combination of what I

9 did and what they contributed is what is in

10 front of you. And so if you would just take

11 a look at it.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And what you

13 like is yours.

14 MEMBER HANSON: Well, I would be

15 happy to accept changes as well. But we

16 didn't argue much on the email iteration.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Again, might

18 remove panel members have provided.

19 MEMBER HANSON: Yes.

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And I actually

21 look a this as EPA recognizes that Chapter 7

22 is still a work in progress.

Page 236

1 MEMBER HANSON: Yes, this is

2 basically a call just to flesh it out some

3 more.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes. Twenty5 four.

6 MEMBER HANSON: I guess there is

7 one question embedded in the last line is if

8 you don't disagree with the last sentence,

9 whether you would want to use those two words,

10 developing or universal or whether universal

11 even makes sense.

12 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Kathleen, are

13 you back?

14 MEMBER WEATHERS: I'm back.

15 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Oh. We are

16 almost done but we will get to your two pieces

17 in just a second. We are currently on

18 question 24.

19 MEMBER WEATHERS: Sorry. Say it

20 again, Ted?

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: We are

22 currently on question 24.

Page 237

1 MEMBER WEATHERS: Okay.

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And in

3 particular, the last sentence in response to

4 question 24.

5 So the panel does not recommend

6 developing a single --

7 MEMBER HANSON: The sense of the

8 comments that I read and heard and what I

9 tried to capture here was we don't think it is

10 possible. It doesn't mean it could be --

11 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Mike.

12 MEMBER HANSON: You know, a single

13 universal standard that actually does apply to

14 acidification and nutrient enrichment just may

15 be out of reach is what the --

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: The panel

17 thinks --

18 MEMBER HANSON: I doesn't mean --

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: -- or is

20 concerned that a single standard or a single -

21 - How did you say that Paul? You used out of

22 reach and I was trying to be a little --
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1 MEMBER HANSON: Yes.

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Covering or

3 addressing both acidification -- Well

4 actually, --

5 MEMBER HANSON: Is not practical

6 at this point. You know, --

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Acidification

8 and nutrient enrichment is not practical at

9 this point. That is what -- Does that capture

10 it?

11 MEMBER HANSON: Right. And then

12 just delete everything else.

13 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Do you want

14 probably not practical or in case they come up

15 with something genius?

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, probably.

17 MEMBER WEATHERS: I like the

18 qualifier.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: What was that,

20 Kathleen?

21 MEMBER WEATHERS: I agree with the

22 qualifier probably.

Page 239

1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

2 MEMBER HANSON: The only problem

3 with that is we lambasted the panel --

4 We got on the EPA staff's case for

5 using probably and maybes and all that stuff.

6 MEMBER WEATHERS: Well in this

7 case it stops short of saying this is a show

8 stopper. This doesn't work. I'm not sure we

9 know that.

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay, other

11 comments on 24 or should we go to 11(b)? And

12 I think we are going to have a specific

13 question for you, Kathleen, in terms of NECO.

14 MEMBER WEATHERS: Okay. Does it

15 make sense to go back to question 11?

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, so we are

17 on question 11 and --

18 MEMBER WEATHERS: Eleven (b) and

19 (c) is that it?

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: That is what we

21 are doing, yes, 11(b) and (c).

22 MEMBER WEATHERS: Okay, yes. And

Page 240

1 are Charlie and Myron still there?

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: No, they are

3 not.

4 MEMBER WEATHERS: Okay.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So their view

6 just is that the mass balance approach is

7 better.

8 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes, I think

9 that was expressed yesterday as well.

10 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And so I don't

11 see that that is expressed here yet.

12 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes.

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So do we want

14 to say that explicitly in the last sentence?

15 MEMBER WEATHERS: Right. So the

16 panel thinks --

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes.

18 MEMBER WEATHERS: -- that the mass

19 balance approach is more feasible or people

20 thinking as declarative as should be used.

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, I would

22 say should be used. Should be used -- is

Page 241

1 preferred and should be used? You know, that

2 is sort of double stating something.

3 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes. Preferred

4 is not very clear.

5 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: And so should

6 be used.

7 MEMBER WEATHERS: The last

8 sentence is referring, it may be not be

9 necessary, the one that is there. The

10 sentence we were just talking about could

11 possibly replace that. So that neither

12 approach may easily get is just responding to

13 the letter of the question that was proposed

14 by EPA. So someone from EPA might want to

15 comment on whether we have answered the

16 question.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes, they nod

18 their heads.

19 MEMBER WEATHERS: Okay, we can

20 strike the neither approach or it is not a

21 problem if it left?

22 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: It is struck. 
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1 And just of note, I will probably put all

2 three of those paragraphs together and --

3 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes.

4 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: -- trim it down

5 just a bit.

6 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes.

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: C.

8 MEMBER WEATHERS: Okay. So this

9 couple of sentences reflects, I think, our

10 discussion yesterday.

11 MEMBER HANSON: I think that might

12 reflect the discussion but I am not sure Dale

13 was on the phone at the time. And I would ask

14 someone to look back at Dale's written

15 comments and maybe even Myron's written

16 comments because I believe they disagreed with

17 the presumption that bedrock geology was

18 sufficient. But we did not get verbally

19 discussed.

20 MEMBER WEATHERS: Well so what

21 this says is that just as a bedrock geology is

22 likely to be more indicative and points to a

Page 243

1 combination of features that might be used for

2 criteria.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: I think that

4 actually covers what they said.

5 MEMBER HANSON: Yes, I think the

6 gist of this is sort of like along with the

7 g(.) comment, is that use everything on the

8 left-hand side of the AAPI equation.

9 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Yes. So how I

10 might, one of the things I might modify this

11 is ideally a combination of topographic and

12 landscape criteria I would say could be used

13 that includes such factors.

14 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes. Yes,

15 strike might and could and put could instead

16 of would.

17 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So includes.

18 MEMBER WEATHERS: The combination

19 includes.

20 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Includes such

21 factors as elevations. So Paul, how else

22 might you modify that?

Page 244

1 MEMBER HANSON: Well it is sort of

2 there under land cover but I mean I think that

3 the case that Dale might have made if he were

4 still on the phone is that it is the

5 productivity potential of the vegetation that

6 is really driving that feature.

7 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So put a

8 comment there just let's ask Dale directly. 

9 We can send this to him and get his direct

10 comments on it.

11 MEMBER WEATHERS: Or put and land

12 use and land cover make land use not have to

13 be combined with land cover.

14 MEMBER HANSON: I mean, an example

15 is if you have got a real wet rainy season,

16 you don't have as much radiation coming in. 

17 You are not being as productive as you would

18 have been in a sunny season. And so on that

19 particular year, you will end up taking up

20 less nitrogen, perhaps.

21 It is much more complicated than

22 that. But the bottom line is you have to

Page 245

1 factor in and capture the essence of

2 vegetation productivity and how much nitrogen

3 that is extracting. Or in the case of aquatic

4 systems, whatever the corollary is.

5 MEMBER AMAR: Line 27, do we

6 delete more indicative or do we mean better

7 indicative?

8 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Better.

9 MEMBER AMAR: I think that is what

10 we are saying.

11 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So what that

12 now says, Kathy is maps of bedrock geology are

13 likely to be better indicative of acid

14 deposition or acid-sensitive eco systems in

15 un-glaciated parts of the country. Where till

16 is predominant, the influence of the

17 underlying geology may be massed. Ideally, a 

18 combination of topographic and landscape

19 criteria could be used that include such

20 factors as elevation, land use/land cover, as

21 well, we need an and somewhere, as well as

22 bedrock geology.
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1 And then with a note that Dale can

2 put in that we will get some comments from

3 Dale.

4 MEMBER WEATHERS: So and you might

5 take out land use.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay.

7 MEMBER WEATHERS: In this case

8 land cover may be what Dale is looking at.

9 MEMBER HANSON: How about just

10 vegetation contributions instead of land use

11 and land cover?

12 MEMBER WEATHERS: Well I am just

13 thinking about the mapping approach here. 

14 Those standards refer to as land cover.

15 MEMBER HANSON: Well I think that

16 may be part of the problem is that that in and

17 of itself may not capture.

18 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes. I am okay

19 with leaving it as land use/land cover and

20 putting a note into Dale.

21 MEMBER KUMAR: How important is

22 the soil composition in this?

Page 247

1 MEMBER WEATHERS: I'm sorry the

2 what composition?

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Soil

4 composition?

5 MEMBER HANSON: That will play a

6 role as well.

7 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes. That could

8 broadly be considered land cover, that skin

9 around the bedrock. 

10 MEMBER HANSON: I mean, in a

11 terrestrial system to estimate NECO

12 appropriately you need a whole other big

13 complex model. I don't believe that is what

14 is in CMAQ but there needs to be something

15 that takes the place of that.

16 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: None of that is

17 in CMAQ.

18 MEMBER HANSON: Yes, but that is

19 what NECO is.

20 MEMBER WEATHERS: Actually land

21 cover is part of CMAQ, as I understand it, in

22 terms of quantifying deposition.

Page 248

1 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: That is but in

2 terms of any description of what is happening

3 below that.

4 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes. From the

5 top of vegetation to bedrock.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: CMAQ cares not

7 about NECO.

8 All right. Anything else that

9 people want to discuss right now? Somehow I

10 think the answer is going to be no.

11 MEMBER CHESTNUT: I sent a

12 sentence by email to --

13 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: You sent a

14 sentence by email? You got it? In terms of?

15 MEMBER CHESTNUT: That front

16 thing, that idea about we like the index

17 because it is --

18 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Okay. And that

19 goes in -- you told us where it goes.

20 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Yes.

21 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Great.

22 MEMBER CHESTNUT: You can see if

Page 249

1 it --

2 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: We will get it

3 included.

4 MEMBER CHESTNUT: We have already

5 discussed the concept.

6 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Well, with

7 that, I think we are adjourned. I want to

8 thank everyone, particularly those of you who

9 stuck it out to this last moment.

10 There is lunch. Hopefully it is

11 still warm.

12 MEMBER WEATHERS: I hope it is

13 good.

14 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: We hope it is

15 good, too.

16 MEMBER CHESTNUT: Bye Kathleen.

17 MEMBER WEATHERS: I don't have

18 lunch.

19 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: Kathy, special

20 thanks to you knowing how tough it is to

21 listen in so closely on teleconferences.

22 MEMBER WEATHERS: Yes and I am
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1 probably happy that I couldn't see your eyes

2 sometimes.

3 CHAIRMAN RUSSELL: So with that,

4 Kyndall can adjourn us.

5 MS. BARRY: Yes. Again, thank you

6 panel for all of your hard work. We are

7 really, I think everyone is very excited about

8 where the Agency is going to be able to go

9 with the additional time.

10 Thank you EPA for being very

11 responsive to the advice from the panel. So

12 pleased with our great collaborative work. 

13 And this adjourns the meeting of the NOX and

14 SOX Secondary Panel. Thank you.

15 (Whereupon, at 1:16 p.m., the

16 proceedings in the foregoing

17 matter were adjourned.)

18

19

20

21

22
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A

AAIP 140:9 170:18

171:9,15

AAPI 15:3 17:16

28:15 64:13 79:18

81:9 90:10,19

93:6 95:19 129:11

139:16 140:1

143:3,7,9 144:6

147:14,22 148:1,4

148:8,11 150:17

151:14 152:22

153:11 154:15

159:10,14,15

163:3 165:21

167:22 173:14

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accelerations

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accommodate

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accomplish 77:14

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accounts 186:12

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acidifies 187:12

acidify 208:3

acidifying 10:2

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activities 38:12

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addressable 192:13

addressed 35:7,9

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addressing 81:9

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adequately 69:6

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administrators

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administrator's

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allowable 144:8

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amount 98:3 144:7

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anyway 160:3

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appears 58:8

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applications 38:13

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applying 116:5

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approaches 19:2

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aquatics 208:3

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assumptions

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building 180:6

bunch 25:5

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buy 26:10 47:7

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buying 133:14

bye 86:9 249:16

by-directional

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call 41:16 42:5

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calling 14:22 21:14

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CAMx 219:21

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canned 55:18 56:14

capable 93:3

capacities 106:4

caption 57:3

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capture 29:9

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captured 63:12,13

captures 44:4

carbon 38:16

carbons 33:15

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Carolina 1:15

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changing 34:17

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chapter's 114:10

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characterizing

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checking 158:7

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Laurie 75:13 77:5

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laying 33:7

leaching 229:2

lead 5:16 90:14

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learn 119:11

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let's 5:9 17:14

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level 45:5 90:11

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MAGIC 179:15

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main 54:19 73:7

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members 1:18 2:1

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mention 134:7,8

135:13 136:8

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mentioned 16:20

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microequivalents

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mike 12:20 237:11

mind 4:22 63:13

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minor 15:18 62:17

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minutes 91:14

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mirror 88:22

misinterpretation

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mistake 82:8

MITCHELL 2:5

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53:16,18,22 56:18

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96:13,22 105:20

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118:20 122:4,10

123:12 124:2

125:4 127:3

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173:3,6 174:1,5

177:12 178:6

179:10 181:7

204:9 214:19,22

215:3,7,14,17

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money 38:20

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monthly 120:18

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morning 4:11,17

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move 12:8 22:20

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N 30:2 31:14 57:11

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Naresh 2:4 17:19

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75:22 97:14 134:2

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natural 28:17,18

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189:10

naturally 186:18

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nature 166:12

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necessary 80:17

81:1 88:11,11

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NECO 219:2,4

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227:8 228:18

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need 7:22 13:13

21:21 35:9 41:4

52:8 63:19 64:9

66:10,12 70:15

72:11 74:13 80:22

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86:7 94:3,16

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129:4 130:18

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158:7 164:13

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neutral 42:19 59:5

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new 64:4 70:4,11

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non-dynamic 176:5

non-glaciated

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non-size-specific

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non-steady 119:6

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numbers 35:3 67:1

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