***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

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LIST OF TABLES

Table ES-1. Summary of Emission Reductions by Sector for Known Controls for 70 ppb 

Proposed Alternative Standard Level for 2025, except California (1,000 tons/year)a........8

Table ES-2. Summary of Emission Reductions by Sector for Known Controls for 65 ppb 

Proposed Alternative Standard Level for 2025 - except California (1,000 tons/year)a......8

Table ES-3. Summary of Emission Reductions by Sector for Known Controls for 60 ppb 

Alternative Standard Level for 2025 - except California (1,000 tons/year)a.......................8

Table ES-5. Summary of Emissions Reductions by Alternative Standard Level for 

Unknown Controls for post-2025 - California (1,000 tons/year)a.....................................10

Table ES-6. Total Annual Costs aand Benefits bfor U.S., except California in 2025 

(billions of 2011$, 7% Discount Rate) ..............................................................................13

Table ES-7. Summary of Total Number of Annual Ozone and PM-Related Premature 

Mortalities and Premature Morbidity: 2025 National Benefits a.......................................13

Table ES-8. Total Annual Costs a and Benefitsbfor California, post-2025 (billions of 

2011$, 7% Discount Rate).................................................................................................15

Table ES-9. Summary of Total Number of Annual Ozone and PM-Related Premature 

Mortalities and Premature Morbidity: Post-2025a.............................................................15

Table 3-1. 2011 and 2025 Base Case VOC and NOx Emissions by Sector (thousand 

tons) 10

Table 3-2. List of Emissions Sensitivity Cases that Were Modeled in CAMx to 

Determine Ozone Response Factors..................................................................................14

Table 3-3. Anthropogenic NOx and VOC Emissions from the 2025 Base and Explicit 

Control Cases*...................................................................................................................15

Table 3A-1. Daily maximum 8-hour ozone performance statistics ≥ 60 ppb by region, by 

network. ...............................................................................................................................6

Table 3A-2. Key monitoring sites used for the ozone time series analysis. .............................11

Table 3A-3. Emissions reductions applied to create the baseline scenario* ............................25

Table 3A-4. Emissions reductions applied beyond the baseline scenario to create the 70 

ppb scenario .......................................................................................................................26

Table 3A-5. Emissions reductions applied beyond the baseline scenario to create the 65 

ppb scenario .......................................................................................................................26
***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xii

Table 3A-6. Emissions reductions applied beyond the baseline scenario to create the 60 

ppb scenario .......................................................................................................................26

Table 3A-7. Design Values for California Region monitors....................................................27

Table 3A-8. Design Values for Southwest monitors ................................................................31

Table 3A-9. Design Values for Central region monitors..........................................................34

Table 3A-10. Design Values for Midwest monitors...................................................................39

Table 3A-11. Design Values for Northeast monitors .................................................................45

Table 3A-12. Monitors without projections due to insufficient high modeling days to meet 

EPA guidance for projecting design values.......................................................................51

Table 3A-13. Monitors determined to have design values affected by winter ozone events .....53

Table 3A-14. Monitors with limited response to regional NOx and national VOC 

emissions reductions in the 2025 baseline .........................................................................56

Table 4-1. Controls Applied for the Alternative Standard Analyses Control Strategy............6

Table 4-2. Summary of Emission Reductions by Sector for Known Controls Applied to

Demonstrate Attainment of the Current Standard for the 2025 Baseline - U.S., except 

California (1,000 tons/year)a..............................................................................................10

Table 4-3. Summary of Emission Reductions (Known and Unknown Controls) Applied 

to Demonstrate Attainment in California for the post-2025 Baseline (1,000 

tons/year)a..........................................................................................................................10

Table 4-4. Number of Counties with Exceedances and Number of Additional Counties 

Where Reductions Were Applied for the 2025 Alternative Standards Analyses - U.S., 

except California................................................................................................................17

Table 4-5. Summary of Emission Reductions by Sector for Known Controls Applied to 

Demonstrate Nationwide Attainment with a 70 ppb Ozone Standard in 2025, except 

California (1,000 tons/year)a..............................................................................................17

Table 4-6. Summary of Emission Reductions by Sector for Known Controls Applied to 

Demonstrate Nationwide Attainment with a 65 ppb Ozone Standard in 2025 - except 

California (1,000 tons/year)a..............................................................................................18

Table 4-7. Summary of Emission Reductions by Sector for Known Controls Applied to 

Demonstrate Nationwide Attainment with a 60 ppb Ozone Standard in 2025 - except 

California (1,000 tons/year)a..............................................................................................18

Table 4-8. Summary of Emissions Reductions by Alternative Standard for Unknown 

Controls for 2025 - except California (1,000 tons/year)a...................................................20
***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xiii

Table 4-9. Summary of Emissions Reductions by Alternative Level for Unknown 

Controls for post-2025 - California (1,000 tons/year)a......................................................20

Table 4-10. Summary of Known and Unknown Emissions Reductions by Alternative 

Standard Levels in 2025, Except California (1,000 tons/year)a.........................................21

Table 4-11. Summary of Known and Unknown Emissions Reductions by Alternative 

Standard Levels for post-2025 - California (1,000 tons/year)a..........................................22

Table A4-1. Geographic Areas for Application of NOx Controls in the Baseline and 

Alternative Standard Analyses - U.S., except Californiaa...................................................2

Table A4-2. Geographic Areas for Application of VOC Controls in the Baseline and 

Alternative Standard Analyses - U.S., except Californiaa...................................................3

Table A4-3. Geographic Areas for Application of NOx Controls in the Baseline and 

Alternative Standard Analyses - Californiaa........................................................................3

Table A4-4. Geographic Areas for Application of VOC Controls in the Baseline and 

Alternative Standard Analyses - Californiaa........................................................................4

Table A4-5. NOx Control Measures Applied in the Baseline Analysis......................................5

Table A4-6. VOC Control Measures Applied in the Baseline Analysis.....................................6

Table A4-7. NOx Control Measures Applied in the 70 ppb Alternative Standard Analysis......6

Table A4-8. VOC Control Measures Applied in the 70 ppb Alternative Standard Analysis.....8

Table A4-9. NOx Control Measures Applied in the 65 ppb Alternative Standard Analysis......8

Table A4-10. VOC Control Measures Applied in the 65 ppb Alternative Standard Analysis...10

Table A4-11. NOx Control Measures Applied in the 60 ppb Alternative Standard Analysis....10

Table A4-12. VOC Control Measures Applied in the 60 ppb Alternative Standard Analysis...12

Table 5-1. Estimated Monetized Benefits of Attainment of the Alternative Ozone 

Standards for the 2025 Scenario (nationwide benefits of attaining each alternative 

standard everywhere in the U.S. except California) – Full Attainment (billions of 

2011$) a................................................................................................................................3

Table 5-2. Estimated Monetized Benefits of Attainment of the Alternative Ozone 

Standards for the Post-2025 Scenario (nationwide benefits of attaining each 

alternative standard just in California) – Full Attainment (billions of 2011$) a..................3

Table 5-3. Human Health Effects of Pollutants Potentially Affected by Strategies to 

Attain the Primary ozone standards (endpoints included in the core analysis are 

identified with a red checkmark) .........................................................................................5
***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xiv

Table 5-4. Baseline Incidence Rates and Population Prevalence Rates for Use in Impact 

Functions, General Population...........................................................................................27

Table 5-5. Asthma Prevalence Rates .....................................................................................28

Table 5-6. Criteria Used When Selecting C-R Functions......................................................31

Table 5-7. Health Endpoints and Epidemiological Studies Used to Quantify ozonerelated Health Impacts in the Core Analysis a

...................................................................34

Table 5-8. Health Endpoints and Epidemiological Studies Used to Quantify PM2.5-

related Health Impacts in the Core Analysis a...................................................................35

Table 5-9. Health Endpoints and Epidemiological Studies Used to Quantify ozonerelated Health Impacts in the Sensitivity Analysis a

..........................................................36

Table 5-10. Unit Values for Economic Valuation of Health Endpoints (2011$) a..................57

Table 5-11. Influence of Applied VSL Attributes on the Size of the Economic Benefits 

of Reductions in the Risk of Premature Death (U.S. EPA, 2006a) ...................................63

Table 5-12. Unit Values for Hospital Admissions a.................................................................68

Table 5-13. Alternative Direct Medical Cost of Illness Estimates for Nonfatal Heart 

Attacks a.............................................................................................................................70

Table 5-14. Estimated Costs Over a 5-Year Period of a Nonfatal Myocardial Infarction 

(in 2011$) a.........................................................................................................................70

Table 5-15. Elasticity Values Used to Account for Projected Real Income Growth a.............75

Table 5-16. Adjustment Factors Used to Account for Projected Real Income Growth a........76

Table 5-17. Population-Weighted Air Quality Change for the Proposed and Alternative 

Annual Primary ozone Standards Relative to Analytical Baseline for 2025 a..................78

Table 5-18. Emission Reductions in Illustrative Emission Reduction Strategies for the 

Proposed and Alternative Annual Primary ozone standards, by Pollutant and Region 

Relative to Analytical Baseline – Full Attainment (tons)a.................................................78

Table 5-19. Estimated Number of Avoided ozone Health Impacts for the Proposed and 

Alternative Annual Ozone Standards (Incremental to the Analytical Baseline) for the 

2025 scenario (nationwide benefits of attaining each alternative standard everywhere 

in the U.S. except California) a, b.......................................................................................79

Table 5-20. Total Monetized ozone Benefits for the Proposed and Alternative Annual 

Ozone Standards (Incremental to the Analytical Baseline) for the 2025 scenario 

(nationwide benefits of attaining each alternative standard everywhere in the U.S. 

except California) (millions of 2011) a, b............................................................................80
***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xv

Table 5-21. Estimated Number of Avoided PM2.5 Health Impacts for the Proposed and 

Alternative Annual Ozone Standards (Incremental to the Analytical Baseline) for the 

2025 scenario (nationwide benefits of attaining each alternative standard everywhere 

in the U.S. except California) a..........................................................................................81

Table 5-22. Monetized PM2.5 Health Co-Benefits for the Proposed and Alternative 

Annual Ozone Standards (Incremental to Analytical Baseline) for the 2025 scenario 

(nationwide benefits of attaining each alternative standard everywhere in the U.S. 

except California) (Millions of 2011)a,b,c...........................................................................81

Table 5-23. Estimate of Monetized Ozone and PM2.5 Benefits for Proposed and 

Alternative Annual Ozone Standards Incremental to the Analytical Baseline for the 

2025 scenario (nationwide benefits of attaining each alternative standard everywhere 

in the U.S. except California) – Full Attainment (billions of 2011$) a,b............................82

Table 5-24. Regional Breakdown of Monetized Ozone-Specific Benefits Results for the 

2025 scenario (nationwide benefits of attaining each alternative standard everywhere 

in the U.S. except California) – Full Attainment a.............................................................83

Table 5-25. Population-Weighted Air Quality Change for the Proposed and Alternative 

Annual Primary ozone Standards Relative to Analytical Baseline for post-2025 a...........83

Table 5-26. Estimated Number of Avoided Ozone Health Impacts for the Proposed and 

Alternative Annual Ozone Standards (Incremental to the Analytical Baseline) for the 

Post-2025 scenario (nationwide benefits of attaining each alternative standard just in 

California) a, b.....................................................................................................................84

Table 5-27. Total Monetized ozone Benefits for the Proposed and Alternative Annual 

Ozone Standards (Incremental to the Analytical Baseline) for the post-2025 scenario 

(nationwide benefits of attaining each alternative standard just in California) 

(millions of 2011) a, b..........................................................................................................85

Table 5-28. Estimated Number of Avoided PM2.5 Health Impacts for the Proposed and 

Alternative Annual Ozone Standards (Incremental to the Analytical Baseline) for the 

post-2025 scenario (nationwide benefits of attaining each alternative standard just in 

California) a........................................................................................................................86

Table 5-29. Monetized PM2.5 Health Co-Benefits for the Proposed and Alternative 

Annual Ozone Standards (Incremental to Analytical Baseline) for the post-2025 

scenario (nationwide benefits of attaining each alternative standard just in California)

(Millions of 2011) a,b..........................................................................................................86

Table 5-30. Estimate of Monetized Ozone and PM2.5 Benefits for Proposed and Alternative 

Annual Ozone Standards Incremental to the Analytical Baseline for the post-2025 

scenario (nationwide benefits of attaining each alternative standard just in California) 

– Full Attainment (billions of 2011$) a..............................................................................87
***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xvi

Table 5-31. Regional Breakdown of Monetized Ozone-Specific Benefits Results for the 

post-2025 scenario (nationwide benefits of attaining each alternative standard just in 

California) – Full Attainment a..........................................................................................88

Table 5A-1. Summary of Qualitative Uncertainty for Key Modeling Elements in O3

Benefits................................................................................................................................6

Table 5B-1. Long-term O3 Mortality Incidence at Various Assumed Thresholds a..................4

Table 5B-2. Application of Alternative (Expert Elicitation-Based Effect Estimates) to the 

Modeling of PM2.5 Co-benefit Estimates for PM2.5 (avoided incidence) ............................7

Table 5B-3. Ranges of Elasticity Values Used to Account for Projected Real Income 

Growth a...............................................................................................................................8

Table 5B-4. Ranges of Adjustment Factors Used to Account for Projected Real Income 

Growth to 2024 a..................................................................................................................8

Table 5B-5. Sensitivity of Monetized O3 Benefits to Alternative Income Elasticities in 

2025 (Millions of 2011$) a...................................................................................................8

Table 5C-1. Potential Reduction in Premature Mortality by Age Range from Attaining 

Alternate Ozone Standards (2025 scenario) a, b....................................................................4

Table 5C-2. Potential Years of Life Gained by Age Range from Attaining Alternate O3 

Standards (2025 Scenario) a,b...............................................................................................4

Table 5C-3. Estimated Percent Reduction in All-Cause Mortality Attributed to the 

Proposed Primary Ozone Standards (2025 Scenario) a........................................................5

Table 5C-4. Population Exposure in the Baseline Sector Modeling (used to generate the 

benefit-per-ton estimates) Above and Below Various Concentrations Benchmarks in 

the Underlying Epidemiology Studies a.............................................................................12

Table 5C-5. Fraction of Total Core Benefits Associated with Partial Attainment 

(application of known controls) (2025 Scenario) ..............................................................14

Table 5D-1. Health Endpoints and Epidemiological Studies Used to Quantify PM2.5-

related Health Impacts in the Core Analysis a.....................................................................4

Table 5D-2. Summary of Effect estimates from Associated with Change in Long-Term 

Exposure to PM2.5 in Recent Cohort Studies in North America........................................10

Table 6-1. Welfare Effects of NOx and VOC emissions.........................................................3

Table 6-2. Change in Consumer and Producer Surplus in the Forestry Sector from 

Attaining Alternative Ozone Standard Levels Compared to Attaining the Current 

Ozone Standard (Million 2011$) .......................................................................................10
***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xvii

Table 6-3. Percent Change in Consumer and Producer Surplus in the Forestry Sector 

from Attaining Alternative Ozone Standard Levels Compared to Attaining the 

Current Ozone Standard.....................................................................................................11

Table 6-4. Change in Consumer and Producer Surplus in the Agricultural Sector from 

Attaining Alternative Ozone Standard Levels Compared to Attaining the Current 

Ozone Standard (Million 2011$) .......................................................................................11

Table 6-5. Percent Change in Consumer and Producer Surplus in the Agricultural 

Sector from Attaining Alternative Ozone Standard Levels Compared to Attaining the 

Current Ozone Standard.....................................................................................................11

Table 6-6. Annualized Changes in Consumer and Producer Surplus in Agriculture and 

Forestry from Attaining Alternative Ozone Standard Levels Compared to Attaining 

the Current Ozone Standard, 2010-2040, Million 2011$ (3% Discount Rate)..................12

Table 6-7. Annualized Percent Changes in Consumer and Producer Surplus in 

Agriculture and Forestry from Attaining Alternative Ozone Standard Levels 

Compared to Attaining the Current Ozone Standard, 2010-2040, (3% Discount Rate)....13

Table 6-8. Annualized Changes in Consumer and Producer Surplus in Agriculture and 

Forestry from Attaining Alternative Ozone Standard Levels Compared to Attaining 

the Current Ozone Standard, 2010-2040, Million 2011$ (7% Discount Rate)..................13

Table 6-9. Annualized Percent Changes in Consumer and Producer Surplus in 

Agriculture and Forestry from Attaining Alternative Ozone Standard Levels 

Compared to Attaining the Current Ozone Standard, 2010-2040, (7% Discount Rate)....13

Table 6-10. Increase in Carbon Sequestration from Attaining Alternative Ozone Standard 

Levels Compared to Attaining the Current Ozone Standard, MMtCO2e ..........................15

Table 6-11. Percent Change in Carbon Sequestration from Attaining Alternative Ozone 

Standard Levels Compared to Attaining the Current Ozone Standard, MMtCO2e ...........15

Table 6A-1. Comparison of Total Cropland and Forestland NLCD Area (sq m) ......................2

Table 6A-2. Parameter Values Used for Crops and Tree Species..............................................5

Table 6A-3. Mapping of Ozone Impacts on Crops to FASOMGHG Crops...............................6

Table 6A-4. Mapping of Ozone Impacts on Forests to FASOMGHG Forest Types..................7

Table 6A-5. Forestland W126 Ozone Values under Alternative Scenarios .............................11

Table 6A-6. Cropland W126 Ozone Values under Modeled Scenarios...................................12

Table 6A-7. Agricultural Production Fisher Indices (Current conditions =100)......................26

Table 6A-8. Major Crop Acreage, Million Acres.....................................................................29
***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

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Table 6A-9. Forest Products Production, Million Cubic Feet ..................................................31

Table 6A-10. Forest Product Prices, U.S. Dollars per Cubic Foot .............................................32

Table 6A-11. Forest Product Prices and Percentage Change, U.S. Dollars per Cubic Foot.......33

Table 6A-12. Forest Acres Harvested, Thousand Acres.............................................................34

Table 6A-13. Existing and New Forest Inventory, Million Cubic Feet......................................35

Table 6A-14. Land Use by Major Category, Thousand Acres ...................................................36

Table 6A-15. Consumer and Producer Surplus in Agriculture, Million 2010 U.S. Dollars.......38

Table 6A-16. Consumer and Producer Surplus in Forestry, Million 2010 U.S. Dollars............39

Table 6A-17. Annualized Changes in Consumer and Producer Surplus in Agriculture and 

Forestry, 2010–2044, Million 2010 U.S. Dollars (3% Discount Rate)..............................40

Table 6A-18. Annualized Changes in Consumer and Producer Surplus in Agriculture and 

Forestry, 2010–2044, Million 2010 U.S. Dollars (7% Discount Rate)..............................40

Table 6A-19. Carbon Storage, MMtCO2e ..................................................................................42

Table 6A-20. Forestry Carbon Sequestration, MMtCO2e...........................................................43

Table 7-1. Summary of Known Annualized Control Costs by Sector for 70 ppb for 

2025 7

- U.S., except California (millions of 2011$)a.................................................................................7

Table 7-2. Summary of Known Annualized Control Costs by Sector for 65 ppb for 

2025 8

- U.S., except California (millions of 2011$)a.................................................................................8

Table 7-3. Summary of Known Annualized Control Costs by Sector for 60 ppb for 

2025 8

- U.S., except California (millions of 2011$)a.................................................................................8

Table 7-4. Comparison of Key Assumptions Used in Developing Estimates of NOx 

Emissions Controls and Costs across Past and Current Ozone NAAQS Regulatory 

Impact Analyses a...............................................................................................................14

Table 7-5. Average NOx Offset Prices in Four Areas (2011$) a............................................21

Table 7-6. Annualized NOx Offset Prices for Four Areas (2011$)a......................................22
***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xix

Table 7-7. Extrapolated Control Costs in 2025 by Alternative Standard for 2025 -- U.S., 

except California (millions of 2011$)................................................................................29

Table 7-8. Extrapolated Control Costs in 2025 by Alternative Standard for Post-2025 --

California (millions of 2011$) ...........................................................................................29

Table 7-9. Summary of Total Control Costs (Known and Extrapolated) by Alternative 

Level for 2025 - U.S., except California (millions of 2011$, 7% Discount Rate)a...........31

Table 7-10. Summary of Total Control Costs (Known and Extrapolated) by Alternative 

Level for post-2025 - California (millions of 2011$, 7% Discount Rate)a........................31

Table A7-1. Costs for Known NOx Controls in the 70 ppb Analysis (millions of 2011$)a.......1

Table A7-2. Costs for Known VOC Controls in the 70 ppb Analysis (millions of 2011$) a......2

Table A7-3. Costs for Known NOx Controls in the 65 ppb Analysis (millions of 2011$) a.......3

Table A7-4. Costs for Known VOC Controls in the 65 ppb Analysis (millions of 2011$) a......4

Table A7-5. Costs for Known NOx Controls in the 60 ppb Analysis (millions of 2011$) a......5

Table A7-6. Costs for Known VOC Controls in the 60 ppb Analysis (millions of 2011$) a......6

Table A7-7. Extrapolated Control Costs in 2025 by Alternative Standard for 2025 U.S., 

except California, using Alternative Fixed Cost Assumptions (millions of 2011$)............7

Table A7-8. Extrapolated Control Costs in 2025 by Alternative Standard for Post-2025 

California, using Alternative Fixed Cost Assumptions (millions of 2011$) .......................7

Table A7-9. Summary of Total Control Costs (Known and Extrapolated) by Alternative 

Level for 2025 - U.S. using Alternative Cost Assumption for Extrapolated Costs, 

except California (millions of 2011$)a.................................................................................7

Table A7-10. Summary of Total Control Costs (Known and Extrapolated) by Alternative 

Level for 2025 - U.S. using Alternative Cost Assumption for Extrapolated Costs, 

except California (millions of 2011$)a.................................................................................8

Table 8-1. Total Costs, Total Monetized Benefits, and Net Benefits in 2025 for U.S., 

except California (billions of 2011$)...................................................................................3

Table 8-2. Total Costs, Total Monetized Benefits, and Net Benefits, Post-2025 for 

California (billions of 2011$) ..............................................................................................3

Table 8-3. Human Health Effects of Pollutants Potentially Affected by Strategies to 

Attain the Primary Ozone Standards....................................................................................4

Table 8-4. Relevant Factors and Their Potential Implications for Attainment ......................10
***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xx

Table 9-1. Demographic Attributes of CBSAs with One or More Monitors Exceeding 

Alternative Levels of the Primary Ozone Standards............................................................6

Table 9-2. Age Distribution and Socioeconomic Attributes of CBSAs with One or More 

Monitors Exceeding Alternative Levels of the Primary Ozone Standards..........................6

Table 10-1. Summary of Direct Labor Impacts for SCR installation at EGUs........................11

Table 10-2. Key Assumptions in Labor Analysis for EGUs....................................................12

Table 10-3. Summary of Direct Labor Impacts for ICI Boilers...............................................14

Table 10-4. Estimated Direct Labor Impacts for SNCR Applied to Mid-Sized Cement 

Kilns (125-208 tons clinker/hr)..........................................................................................15
***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

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