PRESENTATIONS BY LBL

### EPRI C OMMEND 4.0 , LIGHTING F ORECASTING MODEL

INPUTS FLOOR SPACE LIGH TING LEVEL SYSTEM/FIXTURE S HARES (OF DELIVERED LUMENS) FIXTURE EFFICIENCY ROOM FACTOR SYSTEM EFFICACY ANNUAL LI GH TING H OURS EQUIPM ENT LIFETIMES ELECTRICITY PRICES EQUIPMENT PRICESEPRI COMMEND 4 .0 Forecasting Model Illustration of the Lighting Central Energy Equation 50 Million Square Feet 80% of Footcandles 

### 0.5 4000 Hours



### kWhb S = FSb x FCb x SHAREb x x x x HOURSb,s FIXEFFS RMFCTR6 SYSEFFS

50 246 gWh 80%

Footcandles 64 Lumens per Watt 

### 1EPRI COMMEND 4.0 Forecasting Model Depiction of Lighting System Options

4-Foot Fluorescent
8-Foot Fluorescent 8-Foot HO Fluorescent Fluorescent (Other) Edison- Base General Service Edison -Base Reflector I ieta! Halide Mercury Vapor Fluorescent System I C -- through -- ,Fluorescen t System 63 

## C Fluorescent System I

-- through -- Flu o rescen t System Fluorescent System I Fluorescent System Incandescent Compact fluorescent Incandescent Compact Fluorescent
High Pressure Sodium

### Sha re Models an d Stock Accou n tin g System Share Dec ision M odels Building Decay


### Ex isti ng Stock + New Construction + Lamp R eplacements Ballast Replacements + System Conversions New Stock

### E IC OMMEND LIG H TING F ORECASTING MODEL

O UT P UTS ANNUAL ENERGY C O NSUMPTION ENERGY EXPEND ITU RES EQ UIPMEN T E E ITU ES

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Energy Analysis Program, Technology and Market Assessment Group, June 1996OPERATING HOURS DISTRIBUTION

USE DATA SET FROM XENERGY (AGGREGATE D BY XENERGY TO 3 D IGIT ZIP CODE LEVEL), FOR FLUORESCENTS, AUDIT YEARS 1990 TO 1995 (40,000 RECORDS) CLASSIFY EACH RECORD BY TEC HNOLOGY TYPE (4FT, 8FT, 8FT H O), BUILDING TYPE AND SECTOR (INDUSTRIAL OR COMMERCIAL) LABEL EAC H RECORD WITH ONE OF 21 OPERATING HOUR CATEGORIES (0-8 HRS[WK, 8-16 H RS , ETC.) COUNT NUMBER OF BALLASTS FOR EAC H TEC HNOLOGY TYPE, BUIL D ING TYPE AND OPERATING HOUR CATEGORY WEIGHT COMMERCIAL SECTOR COUNTS BY CBECS SQUARE FOOTAGE FOR EACH BUILDING TYPE BEFO RE COMBINING

### B allast An n u a l L i gh ting H ours in U .S. Commercial Stock F our F oot La mp

10K 

### statISLICS ..................... . 

### .................... ..... 

### ................... .. 

### . ----------- -........ ..... 

### .......... ...........

........................................ ............. .................... ...................... ...............,.....-----•............

. v.

Lighting Ho urs ( H ours/year) Max 8760 Mean 3791 Median 3754 Min Std De 834

1479_°6L6 WED 19:45 FAX 510 486 6996 EAP LBNL 10 002



### cumulative Probability of Annual Lighting- f tours

Four Foot Lamp

0
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10 K Lighting Hours (Hours/year)


### Cumulative Probability Table of Annual Lighting H ours06,'19.'96 WED 19:46 FAX. 510 486 6996 EAP LBSL 10004



### TOTAL LC C CHA NG E: Two Lamp MMES. Net Savings or Net Costs Depend on Lighting Lours

.... ....................... ........... ._....------...... ...... .------ 1 0 ...................
--------------- - _.... ----..;....---•-----------•• ......---------- ---------------• ......

------------------- ------------------------ ..+ .... oor _._.... •- - -- -- - - -------- ....• ----- ---- .. . ............ .. 4 -- . - -- --- -- j - ----------- 2 - -.


### ... .. 

### .. . -,- r 

### .... ....... .. 

### . ... 

### ..... ....... ..........-- -- ------ 0 ------...a


### ------------ 4'

-4 - - - - - - - - 4 ^a^sO YS - c^• -Q ¢ ...... ...... .•-=^--- t .4 + + ¢- .. . t t....,..._ C3 Q ®^ ..... ..._ .Y ....... ........... ......_.._......... •Q o . 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10K Key 0 Lighting .:burs (H ours /year) I (CC - EEM) + 2 (ERS - EEM) For CC - EE M, Net Savings occur Above 1000 Hour s/Year For E RS - EE , - Net Savings Occur Above 2700 Hours/Year °- .. 0 14 1...,- .......... . ... . - 7^0 '.YS....^ . ..... .. ... .. ...... . f . . ... ......... ....... -^ 0.121 .<.,. _...__ ,' ........... ..........:................

.__ .......q . ........... -. -•-.....-------- .... -•---•------ 0

. 02 2000 4000 6000 $000 10K

Lightin g - ours Percent Having: Net Costs

CC - EE -- L5% - EEM: 24% E (Hours/year) Net Savings U 

### z

### Sensitivity PAYBACK To Lighting Hours Two Lamp F T1 S 18 16 14 12

2 0 .......................ti. . ..................... T------------------- --- - r...._.............._ .I..................... ..............$ ...... .... .................... . .................... ........... .... .................... ........ ..................................... { ------..... -----•---- ................•---. ....................... { ..................... .....................}.

- ------ --.......... ...... .................... . --------------------- ....................+ .................... ^. ..................

a + •---------------------- -- - -- ._...._....r..................-

..._...-...... . . .. .... ..... . . o ........................ .. .................... ..... ................... . .. ................... . .

o

.

. .. ... ....... ...................... .......... a. . o .................................. . ......... ^...n..ra : tr-- q ..^. o --- ------------------- -- + 4000 6000 8000 10K 2000 Key Lighting Hours (Hours/year) q 1 (CC - EEM) + 2 (ERS - EEM)



### PAYBACK BY P ER CENT OF U.S. BALLASTS

IN C OMM ERCIAL STOCK 

### PAYBACK LESS THAN (Years) 2 4 6 8 10 12 CC - EEM

8% 64% 91% 96% 98% 99% .. ..¢; . ..................... . .....................



### ERS - EEM
0% 

### 17% 

### 58% 76% 91% 96%LCC* ( in 1994$) Sensitivity to Ballast Lifetime for 2F40T12/ES La mps 33,000 hours 45,000 hours 60,000 hours Ballast Type EEM 174 213 248 Cathode Cutout 168 203 236 Electronic RS 171 205 236

Reduction in LCC ( 1994$) 33,000 hrs 45,000 hrs 60,000 hrs EEM to CC $6 $10 $12 EEM to ERS $3 $8 $12
* LCC computed using 8 % discount rate , $0,075/kWh and 4230 annual lighting hours

### LIFE CYCLE C O ST ANALYSIS SENSITIVITIES

® 

### Draft Report

Start With Point Estimates Using Average Values for Each Parameter Perform Sensitivities at Higher and Lower Values for Most Important Parameters (Discount Rate, Electricity Price, Operating Hours, and Ballast Price) 

### Additional Analyses Sensitivity Performed on Ballast Life Analyze Variability of Electricity Price and Lighting Hours Use Weighted Distributions for Each Parameter to Determine How Often Certain Results Occur (e.g., decreased LCC)

### ELECTRICITY PRICE D IST RIB UTION

EIA Financial Statistics of Major (146) U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities (1994) EIA Financial Statistics of Major (441) U.S. Publicly-Owned Electric Utilities (1994) ® Combined Two Data Sets to Obtain Electricity Prices for U.S. Weighted Each Average Commercial Sector Electricity Price by Sales (in MWh) 0 Weighted Distribution Used as Input to LCC Model

### U . S . Commercial Sector Electricity Prices

........ 0.04 

# 1 --- ------------------------ ---- ..----------.----... ._ .^................---- ------..... ....... Statistics 0.031

0.01,
0 ------------------------------

.............................
0 0.05 sL ---------------- Max Mean Median Min Std. Dev. 0.1616

0.0784 0.0719 0.0162 0.0226 ............. ----------------------------

----------------------------------------------
0.2 Electricity Price ($/kWh)

### Cumulative Probability of Commercial Electricity Price
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 - - - - - - - - - - ------- ------- ------- -------- ^......... 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2

Electricity Price ($IkWh) 

### Cumulative Probability Table of Electricity Price Electricity Price Less Than ($/kWh) Percent of Sales 0.02 1% 0.04 2% 

### 0.06 27% 0.08 64% 0.10 80% 0.12 94% 0.14 99% 0.16 99% 0.18 100% ........... ........... ...........t...........1------------

- ------------ - . lq.

......... • .. . • • • ........................r........... ............. . . .. ...... . ..

......... ........... • .. ..... . ........ . ......... ........ ........ ......... ..........

.......... ........ -- -------- ---- -- -- .. ........ ..... ........ . . . .....-.. ........ ........ • ..........

......... ........ ....... -------• ..----- ------. --•-..... ------. .......... ........ •••--- I - - - - - - - ....... ----.... -----... .. ----- •...--• ••.

### TOTAL LCC CHANGE: Two Lamp F40T12ES



### N et Savings or Net Co sts D epend on Electricity Price
15 1 01 51 0 .................................................................................... 

### -10 ...----- boa o¢A.Vh--------------------- .. ... ... ................ .. .. .............................

........ 

### .... . 

### . . 

### . f L . 0 

### 6 kW ....................................................................

s ------------------------ -15 k.` .. .............................

fo.o6/l\ h 0.0 4 1--------- - - ------- - --- _.ajc 0.05 0.1 Electricity Price ($/kWh) (CC - EEM) (ERS - EEM) For CC - E MM , Net Savings Occur 0.2 Above $0.04/kWh For ERS - EEM , Net Savings Occur Above $0.06/kWh

0.03 1 ---------------------------- --- - ......... v 0 0.02 ----------------- 04-- - -- ----

...:. 

# o , ^ -. I^^I lld I I,

. 0 0 0.05 0.1 0.15

Electricity Price ($/kWh) Percent Having: Net Costs CC - EEM: 2,% ERS - EEM: 36 -_._.... ............ f.... . .....................
--

Net Savings 

# 0 YO 0.2

### Sensitivity of PAYBACK To Electricity Price Two Lamp F40T12ES 16 1 4 12 10 8 

### ------------------------------- .............................................................. = ...............................

... ........... ................. ................................ .............................

0 

### ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ ---------- -------------------

0 ............. ... .......... + ------------------------------ ------------------------------ -------- ._....--

c _..- ... ........ ........................... ........................... `.. - --:.-------- ---------------------------------------------...

g++

------------------------ ----------- ---- 0 0.05 Electricity Price ($/kWh) (CC - EEM) (Ells - EEM)



### PAYBACK BY PERCENT OF U.S. COMMERCIAL

ELECTRICITY SAL ES 0.2



### PAYBACK LESS THAN (Years) CC - EEM ERS - 

### EEM 2 17% 0% 4 91% 

### 28% 6 99% 74%

99% 97% 10 99% 99% 12 100% 

### 99%