ref2014.d102413a **2011 2012**  **2013 2014** 

ReportAnnual Energy Outlook 2014 Scenarioref2014 Datekeyd102413a Release Date April 2014



## 45. Transportation Sector Energy Use by Mode and Type (trillion Btu)
**Mode and Type 2011**  **2012 2013**  **2014**
**Energy Use by Mode Highway**  Light-Duty Vehicles 15515.515485.215433.715206.7 Automobiles 7409.3 7385.2 7348.1 7226.6 Light Trucks 8084.9 8078.8 8064.5 7959.3 Motorcycles 21.3 21.2 21.1 20.8 Commercial Light Trucks 1/ 521.7 519.4 525.9 526.7 Buses 243.5 236.8 242.2 242.0 Transit 102.0 99.0 100.7 100.3 Intercity 28.9 27.9 28.6 28.6 School 112.6 109.9 112.8 113.1 Freight Trucks 2/ 5187.2 5025.0 5230.5 5335.3 Medium (10001-26000 pounds) 929.4 928.2 976.1 1012.4 Large (> 26000 pounds) 4257.84096.84254.44322.9
**Non-Highway** Air 3/ 2459.8 2471.8 2478.3 2501.2 General Aviation 142.9 143.4 143.6 144.7 Domestic Air Carriers 1530.8 1539.4 1546.8 1561.3 International Air Carriers 630.1 633.7 636.7 642.7 Freight Carriers 155.9 155.3 151.2 152.6 Water 4/ 1113.5 913.6 884.1 903.0 Freight 875.6 675.4 643.0 661.5 Domestic Shipping 110.6 96.2 96.9 97.7 International Shipping 765.1 579.3 546.1 563.9 Recreational Boats 237.8 238.2 241.0 241.5 Rail 560.9 531.0 488.4 495.0 Freight 513.9 483.7 440.1 446.4 Passenger 46.9 47.2 48.3 48.6 Intercity 17.7 18.1 18.7 18.3 Transit 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.8Commuter 14.9 14.7 15.0 15.5

Lubricants 133.4 118.6 114.8 116.7 Pipeline Fuel Natural Gas 698.8 730.8 725.0 730.0
**Military Use 737.3**  **703.6 658.9**  **665.5** Jet Fuel and Aviation Gasoline 575.3 557.3 520.9 526.6 Residual Fuel Oil 20.0 14.4 12.6 13.2 Distillates and Diesel 142.0 131.9 125.4 125.7

**Total 27171.6** **26735.8 26781.8** **26722.1**
**Energy Use by Type** Motor Gasoline excluding E85 5/ 16371.016325.716266.316027.3 E85 5/ 2.7 13.9 18.5 21.4 Diesel 6/ 6051.5 5832.1 5996.8 6112.7 Jet Fuel (kerosene & naphtha) 3008.1 3002.2 2972.3 3000.9 Residual Fuel Oil 766.1 569.1 532.2 551.5 Aviation Gasoline 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 Propane 50.7 50.3 49.5 48.4 Lubricants 133.4 118.6 114.8 116.7 Petroleum and Other Liquids Subtotal 26410.525938.925977.325905.8 M85 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity 22.4 23.3 24.3 25.5 Compressed/Liquefied Natural Gas 40.0 42.8 55.2 60.6 Liquid Hydrogen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pipeline Fuel Natural Gas 698.8 730.8 725.0 730.0
**Total Consumption 27171.6** **26735.8 26781.8** **26722.1** 1/ Commercial light trucks from 8,501 to 10,000 pounds. 2/ Does not include commercial bus and military use. 3/ Does not include military jet fuel use. 4/ Does not include military residual oil. 5/ E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues, the percentage of ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 6/ Includes all military distillates. Btu = British thermal unit. Note: Includes estimated consumption for petroleum and other liquids. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: 2011 and 2012 values derived using: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/09) (Washington, DC, September 2013); EIA, Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales 2011, DOE/EIA-0535(2011) (Washington, DC, June 2013); EIA, State Energy Data System 2011, DOE/EIA-0214(2011) (Washington, DC, June 2013); Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 32 (Oak Ridge, TN, July 2013); Department of Defense, Defense Fuel Supply Center, Factbook (January 2010); and EIA, AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System run ref2014.d102413a. Projections: EIA, AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System run ref2014.d102413a.**2015 2016**  **2017 2018**  **2019 2020**  **2021 2022**  **2023**

Reference case

**2015 2016**  **2017 2018**  **2019 2020**  **2021 2022**  **2023**

15017.014921.414808.414652.014449.314237.414013.313774.013527.2 7116.9 7053.4 6978.5 6884.5 6788.9 6688.7 6583.5 6470.0 6352.4 7879.7 7847.7 7809.9 7747.8 7640.9 7529.5 7410.9 7285.47156.6 20.4 20.2 20.0 19.8 19.5 19.2 18.9 18.6 18.2 534.4 541.1 541.8 539.3 534.1 529.6 525.4 521.4 518.2 241.9 243.6 245.4 247.2 249.0 250.9 252.7 254.6 256.5 99.9 100.2 100.6 100.9 101.3 101.6 102.0 102.5 102.9 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.3 113.4 114.6 115.8 117.1 118.3 119.6 120.8 122.1 123.3 5506.8 5675.3 5749.6 5779.4 5819.4 5866.5 5923.0 5987.3 6055.3 1056.5 1095.2 1116.4 1125.5 1137.4 1150.0 1163.9 1178.4 1191.6 4450.3 4580.14633.2 4653.94681.94716.64759.04808.84863.7

2522.6 2542.9 2560.7 2574.6 2586.8 2597.3 2608.8 2621.2 2633.3 145.6 146.6 147.4 148.0 148.6 149.1 149.6 150.2 150.7 1573.6 1584.6 1594.4 1601.8 1608.1 1613.6 1619.1 1624.4 1628.7 647.6 652.0 655.7 658.4 660.7 662.6 664.6 666.4 667.8 155.6 159.7 163.2 166.4 169.4 172.0 175.6 180.2 186.1 922.2 926.3 929.2 931.6 933.8 935.8 937.3 939.1 940.9 679.9 681.5 681.9 681.9 681.9 681.8 681.5 681.5 681.5 98.1 98.6 97.5 96.2 94.7 93.2 91.7 90.4 89.2 581.8 583.0 584.4 585.8 587.2 588.6 589.8 591.1 592.4 242.3 244.7 247.3 249.6 251.9 253.9 255.8 257.6 259.4 493.1 474.4 486.5 494.1 496.3 496.8 499.2 503.2 505.5 444.4 425.5 437.4 444.8 446.6 446.7 448.7 452.3 454.1 48.6 48.8 49.1 49.4 49.7 50.1 50.5 51.0 51.4 17.6 17.0 16.6 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.516.0 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3

118.1 119.3 120.1 120.3 120.2 120.1 119.9 119.8 119.8 707.9 697.2 703.0 713.4 727.8 741.0 749.6 753.9 756.9

**652.2 644.2**  **640.4 639.3**  **639.0 638.6**  **638.3 638.0**  **637.6** 516.5 510.2 507.2 506.2 505.9 505.6 505.4 505.1 504.8 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 122.2 120.8 120.1 119.9 119.9 119.8 119.7 119.7 119.6

**26716.2 26785.8** **26785.2 26691.3** **26555.7 26414.0** **26267.6 26112.5** **25951.3**

15841.615722.615555.615341.215078.914818.214534.414220.213932.7 17.1 36.4 77.5 115.5 156.5 187.9 232.5 293.4 319.5 6282.4 6441.7 6541.7 6595.6 6649.7 6707.4 6771.5 6841.6 6913.3 3012.3 3026.4 3041.1 3054.2 3066.1 3076.3 3087.5 3099.6 3111.5 570.6 571.6 572.6 573.6 574.7 575.7 576.6 577.5 578.5 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 47.5 47.0 46.4 46.3 46.3 46.9 47.6 48.7 49.8 118.1 119.3 120.1 120.3 120.2 120.1 119.9 119.8 119.8 25916.425991.825981.725873.425719.125559.125396.825227.525051.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.9 28.1 29.2 30.2 31.0 31.8 32.5 33.2 34.0 64.8 68.4 71.0 73.6 76.9 81.0 87.4 96.4 107.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 707.9 697.2 703.0 713.4 727.8 741.0 749.6 753.9 756.9

**26716.2 26785.8** **26785.2 26691.3** **26555.7 26414.0** **26267.6 26112.5** **25951.3**

5/ E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues,

Note: Includes estimated consumption for petroleum and other liquids. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.**2024 2025**  **2026 2027**  **2028 2029**  **2030 2031**  **2032**

**2024 2025**  **2026 2027**  **2028 2029**  **2030 2031**  **2032**

13273.813005.312766.412555.812378.512222.612087.811978.811891.0 6239.0 6122.0 6017.5 5929.8 5858.7 5798.5 5748.1 5710.4 5682.6 7016.8 6865.8 6731.7 6608.9 6502.9 6407.5 6323.2 6252.1 6192.1 17.9 17.6 17.3 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.3 514.3 510.5 507.6 504.8 502.3 500.5 499.8 499.7 499.1 258.5 260.4 262.3 264.2 266.1 268.0 270.0 271.9 273.7 103.3 103.7 104.2 104.6 105.1 105.5 106.0 106.4 106.9 30.5 30.8 31.0 31.2 31.4 31.6 31.8 32.0 32.2 124.6 125.9 127.1 128.4 129.6 130.9 132.2 133.4 134.6 6116.1 6189.0 6257.3 6310.6 6356.9 6407.5 6469.3 6527.9 6573.7 1201.4 1212.1 1221.0 1227.0 1231.3 1236.4 1242.7 1249.1 1252.8 4914.74976.9 5036.3 5083.6 5125.6 5171.1 5226.7 5278.8 5320.9

2644.2 2654.4 2663.2 2670.0 2676.1 2680.9 2685.0 2688.3 2690.8 151.2 151.7 152.1 152.5 152.7 153.0 153.2 153.3 153.4 1632.1 1635.2 1637.5 1638.8 1639.7 1639.7 1639.2 1638.2 1636.7 668.8 669.7 670.2 670.4 670.3 669.9 669.3 668.5 667.4 192.0 197.8 203.4 208.3 213.4 218.4 223.4 228.4 233.2 942.8 944.9 946.8 948.6 950.4 952.3 954.4 956.2 958.1 681.6 681.8 681.9 682.0 682.2 682.4 682.9 683.2 683.7 87.9 86.9 85.6 84.4 83.3 82.2 81.4 80.5 79.7 593.7 595.0 596.3 597.6 598.9 600.2 601.5 602.7 604.0 261.2 263.1 264.9 266.5 268.2 269.8 271.5 273.0 274.4 506.8 510.1 507.1 507.8 503.3 503.1 502.4 498.9 499.0 454.8 457.6 454.2 454.4 449.4 448.7 447.6 443.6 443.2 52.0 52.5 52.9 53.4 53.9 54.3 54.8 55.3 55.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.1 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.118.5 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.6

119.8 120.0 120.3 120.7 121.0 121.3 121.4 121.6 121.6 759.6 764.9 776.5 788.1 801.2 810.7 819.3 823.6 826.5

**641.5 648.1**  **654.9 661.8**  **668.8 676.0**  **683.3 690.7**  **698.3** 507.9 513.1 518.4 523.8 529.4 535.1 540.8 546.7 552.7 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.6 120.3 121.6 122.9 124.1 125.5 126.8 128.2 129.6 131.0

**25777.3 25607.6** **25462.3 25332.3** **25224.6 25142.9** **25092.6 25057.5** **25031.8**

13633.313319.813040.012790.012578.312394.512236.312108.812008.5 348.4 377.1 401.3 422.5 439.0 450.2 458.2 461.6 458.6 6974.9 7048.1 7108.9 7159.3 7186.6 7221.3 7263.5 7299.6 7323.8 3125.4 3140.9 3155.0 3167.3 3178.9 3189.4 3199.3 3208.5 3217.0 579.6 580.7 581.9 583.1 584.2 585.4 586.6 587.8 588.9 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 50.6 51.5 52.4 53.7 54.5 55.5 56.5 57.6 58.6 119.8 120.0 120.3 120.7 121.0 121.3 121.4 121.6 121.6 24858.524664.524486.424323.024169.024044.223948.423871.923803.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.8 35.8 37.0 38.3 39.8 41.5 43.2 45.1 47.0 122.4 140.2 160.2 180.4 211.9 243.7 278.8 313.8 351.4 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 759.6 764.9 776.5 788.1 801.2 810.7 819.3 823.6 826.5

**25777.3 25607.6** **25462.3 25332.3** **25224.6 25142.9** **25092.6 25057.5** **25031.8 2033**  **2034 2035**  **2036 2037**  **2038 2039**  **2040**

**2033 2034**  **2035 2036**  **2037 2038**  **2039 2040** **2012-2040**

11819.611754.411699.611656.511625.311606.911595.211584.2 -1.0% 5662.8 5647.5 5636.4 5630.8 5631.0 5637.0 5647.0 5658.5 -0.9% 6140.5 6090.7 6047.1 6009.5 5978.2 5953.8 5932.0 5909.5 -1.1% 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.2 -1.0% 499.6 501.9 504.9 508.5 512.7 517.2 521.6 526.3 0.0% 275.6 277.5 279.4 281.2 283.1 284.9 286.7 288.4 0.7% 107.3 107.8 108.3 108.7 109.2 109.7 110.1 110.4 0.4% 32.4 32.6 32.8 33.0 33.2 33.4 33.6 33.7 0.7% 135.9 137.1 138.3 139.5 140.7 141.9 143.1 144.2 1.0% 6634.0 6718.0 6803.5 6893.1 6980.4 7067.3 7145.6 7229.3 1.3% 1259.4 1269.7 1279.5 1289.2 1298.9 1308.4 1317.0 1326.3 1.3% 5374.7 5448.3 5523.9 5604.0 5681.5 5758.9 5828.6 5903.1 1.3%

2692.4 2692.8 2692.5 2694.6 2696.5 2698.2 2699.3 2700.6 0.3% 153.5 153.5 153.5 153.6 153.7 153.8 153.8 153.9 0.3% 1634.7 1632.2 1629.3 1628.2 1627.0 1625.8 1624.6 1623.5 0.2% 666.2 664.8 663.1 662.5 661.8 661.1 660.4 659.8 0.1% 237.9 242.3 246.5 250.4 254.0 257.5 260.4 263.4 1.9% 959.9 961.7 963.3 965.0 966.6 968.0 969.4 970.5 0.2% 684.2 684.8 685.3 685.8 686.5 687.0 687.6 688.1 0.1% 79.1 78.5 77.9 77.4 76.9 76.4 76.1 75.8 -0.8% 605.1 606.2 607.3 608.5 609.6 610.6 611.5 612.3 0.2% 275.7 276.9 278.1 279.1 280.1 281.1 281.8 282.4 0.6% 494.9 491.1 490.4 490.8 484.2 483.1 480.6 479.5 -0.4% 438.7 434.4 433.2 433.0 425.7 424.0 420.8 419.0 -0.5% 56.2 56.7 57.2 57.8 58.4 59.1 59.8 60.5 0.9% 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.9 0.0% 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 1.1%20.8 21.0 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.2 22.6 22.9 1.6%

121.7 121.7 121.8 122.0 122.1 122.3 122.5 122.7 0.1% 829.6 832.4 834.2 832.3 833.8 838.4 842.5 846.3 0.5%

**706.1 714.0**  **722.2 730.4**  **738.9 747.5**  **756.2 765.1**  **0%** 558.9 565.1 571.6 578.1 584.8 591.6 598.5 605.5 0.3% 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 0.4% 132.4 133.9 135.5 137.0 138.6 140.2 141.8 143.5 0.3%

**25033.5 25065.6** **25111.7 25174.4** **25243.5 25333.8** **25419.5 25513.0**  **0%**

11930.611861.611816.111787.911774.211776.511770.411767.2 -1.2% 452.3 445.6 427.5 404.3 379.8 352.5 340.6 327.2 11.9% 7354.1 7405.1 7453.5 7482.0 7505.5 7529.7 7548.8 7549.8 0.9% 3224.7 3231.4 3237.4 3246.1 3254.7 3263.2 3271.2 3279.6 0.3% 590.1 591.2 592.3 593.4 594.5 595.5 596.5 597.4 0.2% 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 -0.1% 59.6 60.9 61.9 63.0 63.8 64.9 66.1 67.4 1.1% 121.7 121.7 121.8 122.0 122.1 122.3 122.5 122.7 0.1% 23759.623744.223737.123725.323721.323731.123742.623737.8 -0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0- - 48.9 50.8 52.7 54.6 56.5 58.4 60.3 62.1 3.6% 392.0 434.5 484.1 558.4 628.0 701.8 770.0 862.5 11.3% 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 - - 829.6 832.4 834.2 832.3 833.8 838.4 842.5 846.3 0.5%

**25033.5 25065.6** **25111.7 25174.4** **25243.5 25333.8** **25419.5 25513.0**  **0%**