## General Service Fluorescent Lamp an d Incandescent Reflector Lamp Energy March 10-11, 2008 Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting



# Energy Conservation Standards for General Service Fluorescent Lamps and Incandescent Reflector Lamps ANOPR Public Meeting Closing Building Technologies Program Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy March 10-11, 2008

Closing 

## The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) directs DOE to consider seven factors when setting energy conservation standards Factor Analysis 1. Economic impact on consumers and manufacturers Life-cycle cost analysis Manufacturer impacts analysis 2. Lifetime operating cost savings Life-cycle cost analysis 3. Total projected energy savings National impact analysis 4. Impact on utility or performance Screening analysis Engineering analysis 5. Impact of any lessening of competition Manufacturer impacts analysis 6. Need for national energy conservation National impact analysis 7. Other factors the Secretary considers relevant Environmental assessment Utility impact analysis Employment impact analysis 2

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp an d Incandescent Reflector Lamp Energy March 10-11, 2008 Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Closing 

## How to Submit Comments...

 Public Meeting – oral comments will be captured in the transcript and become part of the public record.



##  Written comments – ANOPR comment period open until April 12, 2008 Reference docket #: EE-2006-STD-0130 and/or RIN#: 1904-AA92

Email: fluorescent_and_incandesc ent_lamps.rulemaking@ee.doe.gov Mail: Mrs. Brenda Edwards U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Program 1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Mailstop EE-2J Washington, DC 20585-0121
Courier: Mrs. Brenda Edwards U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Program 950 L'Enfant Plaza, 6th Floor Washington, DC 20024 Telephone: (202) 586-2945 3

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting



# Energy Conservation Standards for General Service Fluorescent Lamps and Incandescent Reflector Lamps ANOPR Public Meeting

Engineering Analysis Building Technologies Program Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy March 10-11, 2008

2 Document NOPR

is i l i is i is i i le
Peri is

is 

## ANOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Framework ANOPR Final Rule

National Impact Analys Energy Use Character zation Market and Techno ogy Assessment Screen ng Analys Engineer ng Analys Product Pr ce Determ nation Life-Cyc Cost and Payback od Analys

Shipments Analys

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

3 

###  

# •

 

# • ill not consider in the engineering



###  

# • alternatives.


###  

# • Purpose

Market & Technology Assessment Characterize the fluorescent and inc andescent reflector lamp market and industry, identify the measures to improve efficacy, and establish product classes. 

### Screening Analysis Screen out technology options that DOE w analysis for fluorescent and incandescent lamps. 

### Engineering Analysis Identify baseline lamps or lamp-and-ballast systems and their higher-efficacy



### Product Price Determination Establish end-user prices for lamps and ballasts identified in the engineering analysis.

Market and Technology Assessment 

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp Product Classes
 EPCA established efficacy and CRI standards for 8 separate categories of fluorescent lamps based on four lamp types and two wattage bins per lamp type. 42 U.S.C. 6295(i)(1) Lamp Type

Four -Foot Medium Bipin Nominal Lamp Watt age W > 35 W Minimum CRI

69 Minimum Ave rage

Lamp Efficacy

lm/W 75.0 ≤ 35 W 45 75.0 Two-Foot U-Shaped > 35 W 69 68.0 ≤ 35 W 45 64.0 Eight-Foot Slimline > 65 W 69 80.0 ≤ 65 W 45 80.0 Eight-Foot High Output > 100 W 69 80.0 ≤ 100 W 45 80.0 4

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Market and Technology Assessment 

## Characteristics Used to Establish GSFL Product Classes  DOE divides covered product into classes by:


# • The type of energy used


# • Capacity of the product or other performance-related features that justify different standard levels, such as features affecting consumer utility (42 U.S.C. 6295(q))  DOE used the following criteria to subdivide GSFL product classes: 

# • Physical constraints of the lamp 

# • Lumen package 

# • Correlated color temperature  D OE did not use the following criteria to subdivide the GSFL product classes: 

# • Lamp diameter 

# • Ballast interoperability 

# • Lamp wattage

5

Market and Technology Assessment 

## GSFL Product Classes: Physical Constraints of Lamps

 Physical constraints of the lamp refer to the ability of lamp to use a particular fixture.  The abil ity of a lamp to use a particular fixture affect the utility of the lamp.  The efficacy of the product is also affected (e.g., 4-foot and 8-foot exhibit different efficacies).  Result: Subdiv ide product classes by: 

# • Straight-shaped, 

# • U-shaped lamps, 

# • 4-foot length lamps, and 

# • 8-foot length lamps.

6

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Market and Technology Assessment 

## GSFL Product Classes: Lumen Package of Fluorescent Lamps  Lumen package refers to the quantity of light a lamp-and-ballast system provides to the consumer.  No table differences in standard lumen output lamps and high lumen output lamps indicate differences in utility.  8-foot single pin slimline vs. 8 -foot recessed double contact high output lamps



# • High output systems have approximately 50% higher lumen output than slimline systems 

# • Efficacy differential can be as much as 10% between comparable slimline and high output systems 

###  Result: Different product classes for 8-foot single pi n slimline lamps and 8-foot recessed double c ontact high output lamps.

7

8 

### 
 
 CCT ≤

- 450 500 )l ii

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92) 

## GSFL Product Classes: Correlated Color Temperature

Correlated color temperature (CCT) is a measure of the perceived color of the white light emitted from the lamp. CCT is a performance related feat ure that affects consumer utility. Higher CCT lamps emit less radiation in the visible part of the spectrum, resulting in relatively lower efficacies. DOE considers setting separate efficacy standards for lamps with 4500K and lamps with CCT > 4500K. 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

400 550 600 650 700 750 Wavelength (nanometersRe at ve Sensitiv ty

6500K 4100K Lamp CCTEfficacy (lms/watt Market and Technology Assessment

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Market and Technology Assessment 

## GSFL Product Classes
 DOE does not subdivide product classes by lamp diameter ( e.g. , T12 vs. T8)



# • These are not properties that affect lamp utility. 

# • Manufacturer product literature and market trends show that T8 lamps are currently being offered as T12 product replacements 

###  DOE does not subdivide product classes by ballast interoperability. 

# • The economics of the ballast can be taken into account in the analyses. 

###  DOE does not subdivide product classes by lamp wattage ( e.g. , 40W vs. 34W)



# • Lamp wattage is not a property that necessarily affects lamp utility ( e.g. , 34W lamps are considered as a replacement for 40W lamps)

9

Market and Technology Assessment 

## Setting CRI standards  DOE is proposing to not subdi vide product classes by wattage.  Ho wever, EPCA established mi nimum CRI requirements for fluorescent lamps based on wattage.



# • Higher wattage lamps have a minimum CRI of 69 

# • Lower wattage lamps have a minimum CRI of 45 

###  DOE believes that it does not have the authority to change the minimum CRI standard.  DOE can not maintain the current minimum CRI requirements within the new product class structure.


## DOE invites comment on the possible approaches to handling the issue of CRI in setting GSFL efficacy standards

10

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Market and Technology Assessment 

## GSFL Product Classes Used in ANOPR Analyses Lamp Type For CCT ≤ 4,500K, Minimum Lamp Efficacy

lm/W For CCT > 4,500K, Minimum Lam p Efficacy

lm/W 4-Foot Medium Bipin Product Class #1 Product Class #5

2-Foot U-Shaped Product Class #2 Product Class #6 8-Foot Single Pin Slimline Product Class #3 Product Class #7 8-Foot Recessed Double Contact HO Product Class #4 Product Class #8

11

Market and Technology Assessment 

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp Product Classes DOE invites comments on GSFL product classes. Specifically, DOE invites comment on whether T12 and T8 fluor escent lamps should be in the same product class. DOE also invites comments on whether there should be a CCT divider, how many groupings of CCT are appropriate, and what the CCT divider or dividers should be. (Issue #3)

12

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Market and Technology Assessment 

## Incandescent Reflector Lamp Product Classes  EPCA set efficacy standards for 6 different wattage bins  DOE b elieves wattage, though it affects efficacy, is not a direct measure of utility (e.g., a high e fficacy 55W lamp can deliver the same amount of light as a lower efficacy 75W lamp)  T herefore, DOE is establishing a product class that encompasses the entire wattage range (40W-205W)  To take into account the eff ect of wattage on efficacy, the candidate standard level for incandescent reflector lamps would be an equation that depends on wattage.

13

Market and Technology Assessment

14 )i l / ) . β ) , where α β 

## Incandescent Reflector Lamp Product Classes

Lamp wattage (wattsEff cacy ( umens watt

EPCA CSL1 CSL2 CSL3 Lm / W ≥ α *( W^ and are constants.

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Market and Technology Assessment 

## Modified-Spectrum Incandescent Reflector Lamps

 EISA 2007 defines a “colored incandescent lamp” such that some IRL ( e.g. , lamps containing > 5% neodymium) are no longer excluded from coverage  These lamps may fall under the defini tion for “modified -spectrum” IRL: 

# • A lamp whose color point with (x,y) chromaticity coordinates lies below the blackbody locus and at least 4 MacAdam steps from the color point of a similar clear lamp. 

###  Modified-spectrum IRL offer differe nt light output (and utility) by absorbing a portion of the visible light emission emitted by the filament, thereby reducing efficacy.  DOE considers a separat e product cl ass for modified-s pectrum lamps.

15

16 

### Product Class #10 Product Class #9 IRL Efficacy lm/W Standard-Spectrum Efficacy

lm/W



## #3) 

## IRL Product Classes

Modified-Spectrum Minimum Lamp Minimum Lamp Lamp Category



## DOE invites comment on the creation of product classes that encompass the full range of IRL wattages and the creation of a separated product class for modified spectrum lamps. (Issue Market and Technology Assessment

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Screening Analysis 

## Screening Analysis Method

 Design options were screened using the following criteria: 

# • Technological feasibility 

# • Practicability to manufacture, install and service 

# • Adverse impacts on product utility or product availability 

# • Adverse impacts on health or safety

17

Screening Analysis 

## Design Options Selected for Further Consideration  General Service Fluorescent Lamp Design Options 

# • Highly emissive electrode coatings 

# • Higher-efficiency lamp fill gas composition 

# • Higher-efficiency phosphors 

# • Glass coatings 

# • Higher-efficiency lamp diameter 

###  Incandescent Reflector Lamp Design Options 

# • Higher-temperature operation 

# • Thinner filaments 

# • Efficient filament coiling 

# • Efficient filament orientation 

# • Higher-efficiency inert fill gas 

# • Tungsten-halogen lamps 

# • Higher-pressure tungsten halogen lamps 

# • Infrared glass coatings (thin-film) 

# • Higher-efficiency re flector coatings 

# • Efficient filament placement 18

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

19 

### 



•

• 

## Engineering

Determination The purpose of the engineering analysis and the product price determination is to determine the relationship between fluorescent an incandescent lamps and end-user price.The engineering analysis identifies baseline lamps or lamp-andballast systems and their higher-efficacy alternatives. 

## Engineering Analysis: Purpose

Downstream Rulemaking Analyses Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis National Impact Analysis Engineering Analysis



## Analysis Product Price

Engineering Analysis

Standard
Scale to Product Classes Not l Select Choose Product Classes

Define Baseline Models

Develop Candidate

Levels

Ana yzed Efficient Substitutes Representative 

## Engineering Analysis Methodology Õ Choose product classes to be analyzed in the engineering and life-cycle cost analysis. 

## Õ Define characteristics of models in each representative product class which will serve as reference points to assess changes due to energy conservation standards. 

## Õ Identify more-efficient substitutes from a database of commercially-available lamps. Substitutes will maintain similar light output and save energy. 

## Õ Develop candidate standard levels that span the range of efficacy from the baseline to the maximum technologically feasible.


## Õ Scale results to other product classes not analyzed.

20

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Engineering Analysis 

## Representative Product Classes

 DOE chose a subset of product classes to analyze in the engineering analysis and life-cycle cost analysis to concentrate its analytical effort. These are calle d “representative product classes.”  DOE based its selection on t hose product classes with the highest volume of shipments.  Gen eral Service Fluorescent Lamps 

# • Of the 8 product classes, DOE analyzed three:

– 4-foot medium bipin; CCT ≤ 4500K

– 8-foot single pin slimline; CCT ≤ 4500K

– 8-foot recessed double contact HO; CCT ≤ 4500K 

###  Incandescent Reflector Lamps


# • DOE analyzed the standard-spectrum product class and is scaling its findings to the modified-spectrum product class.

21

Engineering Analysis 

## Baseline Models  DOE selected baseline lamps fr om each representative product class.  T ypically a baseline lamp just meets the existing energy conservation standard.  DOE selected specific attributes like light output, wattage, and operating lifetimes that are typical of the most common lamp on the market for that product class.  DOE selected multiple baseline lamps in each product c lass to ensure consideration of different high-volume lamps and their associated consumer economics.

22

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

23 

###  ≤ 4500K Product Class: 

# • • • CCT: 4100K 

# •  ≤ 4500K Product Class: 

# • • • CCT: 4100K 

# •  ≤ 4500K Product Class:



# • • • CCT: 4100K 

# •

24 

###  

85 25 T8 82 28 T8 82 30 T8 82 32 T8 85 32 T8 82 32 T8 75 32 T8 85 34 T12 80 34 T12 70 34 T12 62 34 T12 85 40 T12 80 40 T12 80 40 T12 70 40 T12 lm/W W CRI Rated Lamp 

## Baseline Models: General Service Fluorescent Lamps 4-Foot Medium Bipin, Wattage: 40W T12, 34W T12, 32W T8 Operating lifetime: 20,000 hrs Phosphor: 40W T12 and 32W T8: 700 series, 34W T12: 600 series 

### 8-Foot Single Pin Slimline, Wattage: 75W T12, 60W T12, 59W T8 Operating lifetime: 12,000 and 15,000 hrs Phosphor: 75W T12 and 59W T8: 700 series, 60W T12: 600 series 

### 8-Foot Recessed Double Contact High Output, Wattage: 110W T12, 95W T12 Operating lifetime: 12,000 hrs Phosphor: 110W T12: 700 series, 95W T12: 600 series Engineering Analysis



### Based on commercially-available lamps Example of 4-Foot Medium Bipin higher efficacy lamps



## Select Efficacious Fluorescent Lamp Substitutes

96.0 97.3 95.0 95.4 92.3 90.8 86.2 Baseline 91.2 85.3 82.4 77.9 Baseline 90.0 85.0 82.5 80.0 Baseline Efficacy Nominal Wattage Diameter Engineering Analysis

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Engineering Analysis 

## Fluorescent Lamp Systems Approach  For GSFL, lamps must be operated on ballasts. DOE takes a “systems approach” that considers both reduced-wattage and equal-wattage lamps operated by different ballasts  T he ballast influences the light output and energy consumption of the lamp  Each lamp is paired with one or more ballasts Æ “system”  System s are chosen to have similar mean lumen output as the baseline system  Ene rgy savings from the baseline system can be obtained by using either:

1. A more efficacious reduced- wattage lamp on the same ballast; or 2. A more efficacious same or re duced wattage lamp on a different ballast so it operates the lamp at a lower power level.

25

Engineering Analysis 

## Fluorescent Lamp Systems Introduction
 System mean lumen output = number of lamps per ballast x ballast factor x mean lumen output of lamp



# • For example, given a 3-lamp ballast with a 0.9 BF and lamps that emit 2,000 mean lumens each the system mean lumen output is equal to 3 x 0.9 x 2,000 or 5,400 lumens. 

###  System power is dependent on lamp wattage and the ballast factor of the ballast.



# • As ballast factor decreases, system power decreases. 

# • As lamp wattage decreases, system power decreases.

26

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Engineering Analysis

Ballast 

## Lamp Substitutes for 4-foot Medium Bipin Product Class Change Lamp and Change Lamp Only or Lamp and Ballast

27 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100

26 28 32 34 36 38 42 ))

28 

###  

# • Baseli

– i ll ll ( ) i l

– 

# • Additi

– 

###  

# • Baseli

–
– 

# • Additi

– 

###  

# • Baseli

– 

# • Additi

– : 0.81 BF 24 30 40 Rated Wattage (WRated Lamp Efficacy (lm/W



## Fluorescent Lamp-and-Ballast Systems: Baselines and Substitutes 4-Foot Medium Bipin: 3-Lamp System ne systems T12 system : magnet c ba ast or a 0.88 ba ast factor BF electron c ba last T8 system : 0.88 BF electronic ballast

onal electronic ballasts used for higher efficacy systems T12 system : 0.87 and 0.86 BF; T8 system : 1.18, 1.00, 0.78, and 0.75 BF 

### 8-Foot Single Pin Slimline: 2-Lamp System ne systems T12 system : magnetic ballast or a 0.88 BF electronic ballast T8 system : 0.88 BF electronic ballast

onal electronic ballasts used for higher efficacy systems T12 system : 0.85 BF; T8 system : 0.78, 0.85, and 1.18 BF 

### 8-Foot Recessed Double Contact HO: 2-Lamp System ne systems T12 system : 0.88 BF electronic ballast

onal electronic ballasts T12 system : 0.90 and 0.89 BF; T8 system Engineering Analysis T8

32W T8 Baseline T12

34W T12 Baseline 40W T12 Baseline

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Engineering Analysis 

## Fluorescent Lamp CSL Summary
 Candidate standard levels based on several design options (primarily phosphor series) and commercially available lamps.  Phos phor Series


# • 600 series cool white halophosphor

– Lower efficacy, reduced-wattage baselines; CRI between 60 and 69 

# • 700 series rare earth phosphor

– Higher-wattage baselines and higher-efficacy lamps; CRI between 70 and 79 

# • 800 series rare earth phosphor

– Higher efficacy lamps; CRI between 80 and 89 

###  Other Possible Design Options Incorporated to meet CSLs 

# • Highly emissive electrode coatings, higher efficiency lamp fill gas composition, thicker phosphor coating, glass coatings , or higher efficiency lamp diameter 

###  Some CSLs in each product cl ass eliminate all T12 lamps

29

Engineering Analysis 

## 4-Foot Medium Bipin CSLs
CSL Efficacy Design Option for Each Baseline 40W T12 34W T12 32W T8 CSL0 < 82.4 lm/W 700 series 600 series - CSL1 82.4 lm/W Improved 700 700 series - series or 800 series CSL2 85.0 lm/W 800 series 800 series 700 series CSL3 90.0 lm/W Improved 800 series Improved 800 series 800 series CSL4 92.3 lm/W Improved 800 series – 30W lamp available CSL5 95.4 lm/W Improved 800 series – 28W and 25W available 30

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting



## ) 4-Foot Medium Bipin CSLs (continued Engineering Analysis

31 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

24 26 28 32 34 36 38 40 42

32 100

30 Rated Wattage (W)Rated Lamp Efficacy (lm/W)



## 8-Foot Single Pin Slimline CSLs Engineering Analysis 4-foot T8 medium bipin

32W T8 Baseline

CSL1 CSL2 CSL3 CSL4 CSL5

EPACT 1992 4-foot T12 medium bipin

40W T12 Baseline 34W T12 Baseline

CSL Efficacy Design Option for Each Baseline 75W T12 60W T12 59W T8 CSL0 < 87.3 lm/W 700 series - - CSL1 87.3 lm/W 800 series 600 series - CSL2 92.0 lm/W Improved 800 series 700 series - CSL3 94.8 lm/W Improved 800 series Improved 700 series 700 series CSL4 98.2 lm/W 800 series CSL5 101.5 lm/W Improved 800 series – 57W and 55W available

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting



## ) 8-Foot Single Pin Slimline CSLs (continued Engineering Analysis

33 54 58 60 62 70 74 76 78

34 75.0 77.0 79.0 81.0 83.0 85.0 87.0 89.0 91.0 93.0 95.0 97.0 99.0 101.0 103.0 105.0

52 56 64 66 68 72 Rated Wattage (W)Rated Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 8-foot T12 single pin slimline 8-foot T8 single pin



## 8-Foot Recessed Double Contact HO CSLs

*Note: 86W T8 is not a baseline lamp Engineering Analysis 60W T12 Baseline 59W T8 Baseline

CSL1 CS L2 CSL3 CSL4 CSL5

EPACT 1992 75W T12 Baseline

CSL Efficacy Design Option for Each Baseline 110W T12 95W T12 86W T8* CSL0 < 83.2 lm/W 700 series 600 series - CSL1 83.2 lm/W 800 series - - CSL2 86.1 lm/W 700 series - CSL3 87.6 lm/W 800 series - CSL4 91.9 lm/W 700 series CSL5 95.3 lm/W 800 series

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Engineering Analysis

35 

## )

80 82 86 88 90 92 96/W)

B 

## 8-Foot Recessed Double Contact HO CSLs (continued

CSL2 CSL3 CSL4 CSL5

EPACT 1992 75.0 77.0 79.0 81.0 83.0 85.0 87.0 89.0 91.0 93.0 95.0 97.0 99.0 101.0 103.0 105.0

84 94 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 Rated Wattage (W)Rated Lamp Efficacy (lm 8-foot T8 recessed double contact HO

110W T12 li 95W T12 Baseline 8-foot T12 recessed double contact HO

CSL1

36 7,366 0.88 ic 34 T12 CSL3 8,208 0.95 40 T12 CSL0 lm W lm/W W Rated Lamp CSL

8,071 1.18 25 T8 CSL5 7,680 1.00 28 T8 CSL5 7,696 0.88 32 T8 CSL5 8,040 1.00 30 T8 CSL4 7,524 0.88 32 T8 CSL4 8,130 1.00 32 T8 CSL3 7,366 0.88 34 T12 CSL3 8,483 0.87 40 T12 CSL3 8,921 1.18 32 T8 CSL2 7,987 0.87 40 T12 CSL2 7,830 0.87 40 T12 CSL1 7,920 0.88 40 T12 CSL1 7,603 0.88 40 T12 CSL0 8,208 0.95 40 T12 CSL0

Lamp and 

## 40W T12 Example Engineering Analysis System Results

108.0 Magnet 91.2 129.0 Magnetic 80.0 System Mean Light

Output System Power Ballast Factor Ballast Type Efficacy Nominal Wattage Diameter

93.0 Electronic 96.0 80.5 Electronic 97.3 87.5 Electronic 95.4 90.2 Electronic 95.0 87.5 Electronic 92.3 98.3 Electronic 90.8 91.7 Electronic 91.2 107.0 Electronic 90.0 114.5 Electronic 86.2 107.0 Electronic 85.0 107.0 Electronic 82.5 107.7 Electronic 82.5 107.7 Electronic 80.0 129.0 Magnetic 80.0 Lamp Only Replacement

Ballast Replacement Engineering Analysis

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Engineering Analysis 

## Selection of Fluorescent Lamp-and-Ballast Designs and Candidate Standard LevelsDOE invites comments on the selection of GSFL lamp-andballast designs from baseline to max-tech as well as the selection of GSFL candidate standard levels.

Additional results can be found in Chapter 5 of the TSD.

37

Engineering Analysis 

## Scaling to Other Fluorescent Lamp Product Classes: Product Classes with CCT > 4500K
 Scale from corresponding fluorescent product class with CCT ≤ 4500K  Efficacies o f commercially available T8 lamps at 6500K are approximately 4% to 7% lower than that of the 4,100K lamps  To av oid overly penalizing current product offered in the market, DOE considers adopting the larger of the two scaling factors (7%)  Example: If 82.4 lm/W ( i.e., CSL1) were selected for the 4-foot medium bipin product class of 4,500K CCT and below, the scaled efficacy requirement for the product class greater than 4,500K CCT would be 76.6 lm/W.

38

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Engineering Analysis 

## Scaling to Other Fluorescent Lamp Product Classes: 2-Foot U-shaped with CCT ≤ 4500K
 Scale from 4-foot medium bipin product class with CCT ≤ 4500K  Effic acy differentials in commercially available products depend on lamp diameter and wattage – U-shaped are approximately 3-6% lower efficacy  To av oid overly penalizing current product offered in the market, DOE considers adopting the larger of the two scaling factors (6%)



## DOE invites comments on the method used to scale to product classes with CCT > 4100K and the 2-foot U-shaped product class. (Issue #4)
39

Engineering Analysis 

## Baseline Models: Incandescent Reflector Lamps

 DOE has identified three common lumen packages that represent the most typical standard-spectrum IRL in the market  T hese three lamps are currently regulated by EPCA and meet the EPCA standard.

Descriptor Design Op tion Wattage W Efficacy lm

/W Initial Light Output lm Lifetime hr PAR30 50 11.6 580 3,000 PAR38 Halogen 75 14.0 1,050 2,500 PAR38 90 14.6 1,310 2,500

40

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Engineering Analysis 

## Select Efficacious IRL Substitutes  DOE chose IRL substitutes that save energy and achieve similar lumen output by increasing efficacy and using reduced-wattage lamps. e.g., 50W @ 12 lumens/watt ≈ 44W @ 14 lumens/watt  Used commercially available lamps when possible.  Thre e basic design options available commercially: 

# • Improved Halogen (3,000 hr life) 

# • Halogen Infrared (HIR) (3,000 hr life) 

# • Improved HIR (4,000 hr life) 

###  Improved Halogen and Improved HIR could be achieved using the following design options:



# • Higher efficiency filaments, efficient fila ment coiling, filament configuration, capsule design, high pressure capsules, or higher efficiency reflector coating.

41

Engineering Analysis 

## “Model” Incandescent Reflector Lamps  When commercially available lamps were not available, DOE developed model lamps to have a continuous range of lamp efficacies across the three lumen packages  Mode l lamps were developed from technical literature and confidential information from manufacturers  Mode l Lamps: 

# • 44.3W, 14.0 lm/W PAR30 lamp reduced-wattages of the 50W, 

# • 41.3W, 15.0 lm/W PAR30 lamp 11.6 lm/W PAR 30 baseline reduced-wattage of 90W, 

# • 66.0W, 19.8 lm/W PAR38 lamp 14.6 lm/W PAR38 baseline

42

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

43 

### 11.0 13.0 15.0 17.0 19.0 21.0

35 65 85 95 Lamp Power (W))

PAR38 90W Baseline 

## Incandescent Reflector Reduced Wattage Options Engineering Analysis



## DOE invites comment on the selection of IRL lamp designs from baseline to max-tech. 45 55 75Lamp Efficacy (lm/W

PAR38 75W Baseline PAR30 50W Baseline

Engineering Analysis 

## Incandescent Reflector CSLs  DOE developed continuous equations that set a minimum efficacy requirement across all wattages.  Each equation represents the same IRL design option across the wattage range of a product class.

Candidate Standard Level Minimum Efficacy Require ment Design Option lm/W CSL1 5.0*P 0.27 Improved Halogen CSL2 5.5*P 0.27 HIR CSL3 6.2*P 0.27 Improved HIR P = rated wattage

44

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

45 30 40 50 70 80 90 100 130 (W)/W) : Halogen ( : : : 

## Incandescent Reflector CSLs

DOE invites comment on whether the IRL candidate standard level represents the appropriate technology across all wattages. Engineering Analysis

10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0

60 110 120 Lamp PowerLamp Efficacy (lm

Baseline EPCA CSL1 CSL2 CSL3

PAR30, 50W PAR38, 75W PAR38, 90W Baseline/EPCA 2,500-3,000 hr) CSL1 Improved Halogen (3,000 hr) CSL2 HIR (3,000 hr) CSL3 Improved HIR (4,000 hr)

Engineering Analysis 

## Scaling to Modified Spectrum Incandescent Reflector Lamps  DOE identified several IRL lamps with modified-spectrums andcompared their performance with standard (i.e., non modifiedspectrum) lamps.  T he reduction in efficacy caused by the modified-spectrum ranged from 2% to 29% with an average reduction in efficacy of 15%.  DOE re cognizes that those modified-spectrum lamps may have a distinct utility.  DOE wishes to establish a standard for modified-spectrum lamps that:



# • Does not eliminate modified-spectrum lamps which require a lower efficacy standard because of their distinct utility; and 

# • Acknowledges the ranges of spectrum m odification possible for IRL and their corresponding effects on efficacy

46

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Engineering Analysis 

## Possible Scaling Method for Modified-Spectrum IRL
 Modified spectrum scaling could be based on the light output of themodified spectrum lamp and an equivalent reference standardspectrum lamp  Re ference standard-spectrum lamp would be equivalent to the modified spectrum lamp except for the coating of neodymium (or other additive) that causes the lamp to emit a modified-spectrum.  Equa tion: 

## lm Modified

− Spectrum 

## = CSL Modified

− Spectrum 

## lm S tan dard

− Spectrum 

## * CSL S tan dard

− Spectrum


## DOE invites comments on the method used to scale from a standard-spectrum lamp to a modified-spectrum lamp. (Issue #4) 47

Product Price Determination 

## Product Price Determination Purpose  Establish end-user prices for those lamps or lamp-and-ballast systems identified in the engineering analysis. 

## Method  Product price determination is based on available pric ing lists (e.g., manufacturer price lists, state procurement price lists).  DOE discount ed blue-book prices to develop high-range, mediumrange, and low-range end-user retail prices to reflect variability in the market.



# • Medium-range prices are used as reference prices in life-cycle cost and national impact analysis 

# • High and low-range prices are used as sens itivities in the life-cycle cost analysis. 

###  DOE developed a weighted-average sales tax data by region based on local data from Sales Tax Clearinghouse.



# • National average: 6.9%
. 48

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

 

# • ( i.e.


### 

 

# • Consistent wi ( )


###  

# • Consistent wi and institutional


###  

# • Consistent wi 

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp Methodology Market Today Higher efficacy lamps received higher markups , lower discounts off the blue book price schedule) than lower efficacy lamps in the market. 

### DOE mirrored State procurement contracts by applying a constant discount across all lamps to reflect the commoditization of the product in marketplace after a standard. Low-Range Prices (high discount off “blue book”) th prices found in State procurement contracts and other sources which have a single high-volum e discount typically between 70-90% for all products. 

### Medium-Range Prices (mediu m discount off “blue book”) th the typical discount provided by distributors for commercial consumers on high-vo lume lamps, incorporating a 13% contractor mark-up (2000 Ballast Rule). 

### High-Range Prices (low discount off “blue book”) th prices encountered by small quantity purchasers (e.g., internet prices, distributor quotes). These prices also incorporate a 13% Product Price Determination

49

50 0 1 2 3 4 5) contractor mark-up.

Product Price Determination
32W T8 4-foot Medium Bipin Results



## DOE requests feedback on the approach for developing enduser GSFL prices. 84.0 86.0 88.0 90.0 92.0 94.0 96.0 Lamp Efficacy (lm/W)End-User Prices ($ 

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp End-User Price Results
High-Range Medium-Range Low-Range

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Product Price Determination 

## Incandescent Reflector Lamp Prices  DOE did not observe significant variation in prices by lamp wattage.  DOE d id develop separate prices for PAR 38 and PAR 30 IRL.  Rese arch indicated that the PAR 38 IRL market was a more developed market than the PAR 30 IRL market.  DOE dev eloped discounts off of the blue-book prices for PAR 38 lamps. DOE then based the PAR 30 lamp prices off the PAR 38 analysis.

51

Product Price Determination 

## PAR 38 Incandescent Reflector Lamp Prices

 DOE mirrored state procurement contracts by applying a constant discount off the “blue-book” over all halogen and HIR technology IRL to reflect commoditization of the product in the marketplace after the standard.  Lo w-Range Prices (high discount off “blue book”) 

# • Consistent with prices found in State procurement 

###  Medium-Range Prices (mediu m discount off “blue book”)


# • Consistent with shipment-weighted av erage prices paid by consumers for commonly available IRL. 

###  High-Range Prices (low discount off “blue book”)


# • Consistent with prices encountered by small quantity purchasers (e.g., internet prices).

52

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Product Price Determination 

## PAR30 Incandescent Reflector Lamp Prices
 Research indicates that the PAR 30 market is less developed  T herefore, DOE developed modified list (“blue-book”) prices for PAR 30 lamps by applying the same incremental differences between incandescent (non-halogen) lamps and higher efficacy lamps from the PAR 38 lamps. Developing PAR 30 “Blue Book” Prices BR 40 Incandescent BR 30 PAR 38 Halogen PAR 30 PAR 38 Improved Halogen PAR 30 PAR 38 HIR PAR 30 PAR 38 Improved HIR PAR 30 

###  DOE then applied the same discounts off of the modified “blue book” prices to develop low, me dium and high-range prices.

53

54 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

13.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 20.0 (l) Hi Product Price Determination 

## Incandescent Reflector Lamp End-User Prices

DOE requests feedback on the approach for developing enduser IRL prices. 75W PAR38 Baseline Results

14.0 19.0 Lamp Efficacy m/W)End-user Prices ($ gh-Range Medium-Range Low-Range

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

55 

###  Product Classes (Issue #3)  

  

## ANOPR Issues for Public Comment
Standards for Color Rendering Index Selection of Efficacious Lamp Substitutes and Candidate Standard Levels Scaling to Product Classes Not Analyzed (Issue #4) Approaches for Establishing End-user Prices2 

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting



# Energy Conservation Standards for General Service Fluorescent Lamps and Incandescent Reflector Lamps ANOPR Public Meeting Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Building Technologies Program Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy March 10-11, 2008



## ANOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Framework Document ANOPR NOPR Final Rule

National Impact Analysis Energy Use Characterization Market and Technology Assessment Screening Analysis Engineering Analysis Product Price Determination Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

Shipments Analysis

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting



## Purpose

 Energy Use Characterization 

# • To develop energy consumption estimates for the lamp or lamp-and-ballast

systems selected in the engineering analysis.



##  Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

# • To develop the customer life-cycle cost savings and payback period for higher

efficiency lamps.

3

Energy Use Characterization 

## Energy Use Characterization  Energy Use = Operating Hours x Power  Distribution of Operating Hours developed by 

# • Lamp type (i.e., GSFL, IRL) 

# • Sector (i.e., Residential, Commercial, Industrial) 

# • Building type 

# • Region (9 census divi sions, 4 large states) 

###  Power Developed in Engineering Analysis 

# • For IRL: lamp wattage 

# • For GSFL: system power: depends on ballast factor and lamp wattage

4

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Energy Use Characterization 

## Residential Sector Operating Hours  2002 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization Vol I.: 

# • Average operating hours by building type (e .g., mobile home, single family

detached, single family attached) and lamp type (i.e., IRL). 

###  2001 Residential Energy Consumption Survey 

# • Probability a certain building type resides in one of nine census divisions and

four large states. 

###  Operating Hours of Average IRL: 884 hrs/year  Sensitivity using high and low operating hours by room type: 

# • 1,210 hrs/ year (i.e., lamp placed in kitchen of a single-family detached) 

# • 183 hrs/ year (i.e., lamp placed in the closet of a multi-family 2-4 unit)

5

Energy Use Characterization 

## Commercial Sector Operating Hours
 2002 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization Vol I.: 

# • Average operating hours by building type (e.g., office, refrigerated warehouse,

lodging, food sales) and lamp type (e.g., IRL, GSFL) 

###  2003 Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey 

# • Probability a certain building type resides in one of nine census divisions and

four large states. 

###  Operating Hours of Average IRL: 3,450 hrs/year  Operating Hours of Average GSFL: 3,435 hrs/year

6

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Energy Use Characterization 

## Sample Commercial Sector Operating Hours Distribution 20%Commercial Sector GSFL Probability 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1 2

16 15 14
13

4 5

6

7 8
11 12

17 18 25 26

1: Vacant 2: Office 4: Laboratory 5: Nonrefrigerated warehouse 6: Food sales 7: Public order and safety 8: Outpatient health care 11: Refrigerated warehouse 12: Religious worship 13: Public assembly 14: Education 15: Food service 16: Inpatient health care 17: Nursing 18: Lodging 25: Retail other than mall 26: Service 91: Other

913,5453,6864,9733,4605,2243,5703,3313,8191,7052,5702,6434,5985,7514,3853,7803,6813,3943,638 Annual Operating Hours by Building Type (hrs/year) 7

Energy Use Characterization 

## Industrial Sector Operating Hours  2002 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization Vol I.: 

# • Average operating hours by building type (e.g., printing and publishing, textile

mill, fabricated metal products) and lamp type (e.g., IRL, GSFL) 

###  2002 Manufacturer Energy Consumption Survey 

# • Probability a certain building type resides in the country 

###  2007 Census 

# • Probability a certain building type resides in census division or large state 

###  Operating Hours of Average IRL: 4,664 hrs/year  Operating Hours of Average GSFL: 4,795 hrs/year 

## DOE requests feedback on whether the average operating hours derived are a reasonable estimation of their end-uses. (Issue #6)
8

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

9 

## Fluorescent System Power Rating  DOE calculated system power rating using published catalog data.  To estimate system power for a range of ballast factors with similar attributes (BEF, THD, etc.), DOE developed a linear fit.  Example: 3-lamp 32W 4-foot T8 120V Ballasts with THD <20%, PF>0.95, and BEF 0.98 - 1.02 Linear Fit: m=89.8, b=8.5



## DOE invites comments on the system power rating of the lamp-and-ballast systems analyzed. (Issue #7) 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0

0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 Ballast FactorSystem Power Rating (W) Energy Use Characterization

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses  Purpose: To develop the customer life-cycle cost (LCC) savings and payback period (PBP) for higher efficiency product compared to the baseline product.

10

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

11 

###  LCC equals consumer price plus the sum of operating costs discounted to a particular base year.  Economic evaluation from the consumer perspective.  Analysis implemented in an Excel ® 

### spreadsheet.  Results are expressed as LCC savings (baseline minus candidate efficiency level).  Simple Payback Period (PBP, years) is also calculated and reported in this analysis. First Cost (Consumer Price +

Installation Cost)



### Operating Expenses Combine Changes in Costs

LCC Results Convert to Present Value Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Method

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Approach

 The analysis only considers consumer choices that save energy: 

# • Reduced-wattage lamps 

# • Lamp and ballast combinations that have reduced system power 

###  Various events that trigger the purchasing of a lamp are considered.  Varying lifetimes among lamp designs requires the use of a residual value.  Distributions are correlated in analysis (e.g., operating hours, sales tax, and electricity prices are correlated by region).

12

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Events Triggering the Purchase of Lamp
 Various events that trigger the purc hasing of a lamp involve different consumer economics. DOE analyzes five such events: IRL 

##  ; Lamp Failure - a lamp fails and must be replaced. Standards-Induced Retrofit - an increase in the efficacy standard prompts end-users to retrofit lamps and ballasts where, in the base case, they would otherwise only replace the lamp. GSFL 

## ; ;
 ; Ballast Failure - an existing ballast fails and the consumer purchases a new lamp and ballast. 

##  ; Ballast Retrofit – consumers who were going to voluntarily retrofit their existing lamp and ballasts do so, and at certain CSLs are impacted by being forced to a higher standard. 

## ; ; New Construction and Renovation - all the new fixture installations where the lighting design will be new or can be completely reconfigured. 13

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Detailed Summary of Triggering Events for T12 Baseline Lamps Event Base Case Action Standards Case Action Lamp Failure (a) Installs a T12 lamp. Installs a lower-wattage, higher efficacy lamp, where the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system. (b) Installs a T12 lamp.

Installs a T12 or T8 electronic ballast and lamp, where the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system. Standards-Induced Retrofit Replace T12 lamp halfway through analysis period. Ballast Failure Installs a T12 electronic ballast and lamps in the existing fixture. Ballast Retrofit Installs a T8 electronic ballast and lamps in the existing fixture. New Construction and Renovation Installs a new T12 system (only applies to T12 HO systems) Installs a new T12 or T8 system that is where the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system. Light output can be maintained through spacing. 14

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Detailed Summary of Triggering Events for T8 Baseline Lamps Event Base Case Action Standards Case Action Lamp Failure Installs a T8 lamp. Installs a lower-wattage, higher efficacy lamp, where the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system. Ballast Failure Installs a T8 electronic ballast and lamps in the existing fixture. Installs new T8 ballast and lamps, where the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system. New Construction and Renovation Installs a new T8 system. Installs a new T8 system, where the system light output never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system. Light output can be maintained through spacing.

15

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Residual Value  To compare the life-cycle cost of two products, one must evaluate them over the same period of time (i.e., analysis period).  The analysis period must be b ased on the lifetime of the product being regulated.  To account for varying lifetimes among lamp designs, DOE uses a residual value (prorating the value of the remaining life of the lamp or ballast).  The residual value is an estimate of the product’s value to the consumer at the end of the life-cycle cost analysis period. LCC = Installed Cost + Operating Cost – Residual Value 

## DOE seeks comment on the use of residual value and on other possible approaches to calculating life-cycle costs for products with varying lifetimes. (Issue #8) 16

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## T12 Lamp Failure (a) Cash Flows Lamp Purchase: Operating Expense: Lamp Residual Value: Baseline T12 Lamp on Magnetic Ballast: 5 year Service-Life 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

17 Standards-Compliant Reduced Wattage T12 Lamp on Magnetic Ballast: 6 year Service-Life

18 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## LCC Calculation Flowchart

End-User Product Price

Sales Tax Final Product Price Installation

Cost

Total Installed Cost

Electricity Prices Annual Electricity Usage Cost PBP

Electricity Price Trend

Discount Rate

Analysis Period Operating Cost Over Analysis Period

Replacement

Cost Residual Value LCC

Power Rating
Operating Hours

Product Lifetime Service Life Energy Consumption

Total Replacement

Cost Calculated

Value LCC Input LCC Output Legen d From Product Price Determination

From Energy Use Characterization From Engineering

Analysis

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Total Installed Costs  Total Installed Costs = Retail Price + Installation Cost  Equipment Retail Price = End-User Product Price + Sales Tax 

# • End-User Product Price and Sales Tax developed in the Product Price

Determination

. 

###  Installation costs represent the labor necessary to install the lamp or ballast.



# • Labor Times (minutes):

– GSFL: 2000 Ballast Rule (depends on lamp type, weighted average group

and spot)

– IRL: 2007 RS Means Electrical Cost Data. (DOE assumes no installation

costs for IRL in the residential sector.) 

# • Labor Rate ($/hr):

– Lamp Replacement: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- General Maintenance

Worker ($15.49/hr)

– Lamp and Ballast Replacement: 2007 RS Means-Electrician and Electrician’s

Helper ($53.88/hr) 19

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Installation Costs and the 2005 National Electric Code

 The 2005 National Electric Code re quires a means for disconnecting luminaires installed indoors.  This new requirement may affect the labor time to install a fluorescent lamp ballast. 

## DOE seeks comment on average labor times and labor rates. Specifically, DOE requests comme nt on how labor times will be affected by the 2005 National Electric Code. (Issue #9)

20

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Electricity Prices  Electricity Prices 

# • Based on EIA Form 861 Data 

# • Developed for 13 regions: 9 census divisions and 4 large states. Geographic Area Res. Elec (2006 $ / kWh) Comm. Elec (2006 $ / kWh ) Ind. Elec (2006 $ / kWh) New England $0.129 $0.105 $0.094 Middle Atlantic (excludes NY) $0.110 $0.088 $0.059 East North Central $0.087 $0.075 $0.054 West North Central $0.082 $0.070 $0.075 South Atlantic (excludes FL) $0.086 $0.074 $0.054 East South Central $0.078 $0.078 $0.065 West South Central (excludes TX) $0.086 $0.079 $0.065 Mountain $0.089 $0.080 $0.058 Pacific (excludes CA) $0.086 $0.084 $0.050 New York State $0.160 $0.097 $0.056 California $0.099 $0.087 $0.078 Texas $0.113 $0.106 $0.095 Florida $0.129 $0.121 $0.090 Weighted Average Prices $0.100 $0.086 $0.070 21

22 

## Electricity Price Trends Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses



###  Electricity Price Trend 

# • Energy price projections to 2030 based on EIA/AEO Reference Case 

# • AEO High Growth and Low Growth cases can be run as a sensitivity

0.85 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 YearPrice Trend (2006=1) High Growth-Res Reference-Res Low Growth-Res High Growth-Comm Reference-Comm Low Growth-Com m High Growth-Ind Reference-Ind Low Growth-Ind

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Discount Rates  Based on the finance cost of raising funds to purchase products 

# • Financial cost of any debt incurred to purchase product 

# • Opportunity cost of any equity used to purchase product 

###  Residential Rates 

# • Weighted-average real rate associat ed with various household equity (e.g., savings bonds, stocks, CDs) and debt (e.g ., credit card, home equity loans) 

# • Primary data source: Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances for the years 1989, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2001, and 2004 

# • Average Residential Discount Rate: 5.6% 

###  Commercial and Industrial Rates 

# • Calculated from the weighted-average cost of capital to the firm (WACC) to obtain equity and debt financing. 

# • Cost of Equity calculated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model. 

# • Cost of Debt calculated by adding a risk adjustment factor to the current yield on long-term corporate bonds. 

# • Average Commercial Discount Rate: 6.2% 

# • Average Industrial Discount Rate: 7.5% 23

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Other Inputs  Lamp Lifetime: 

# • GSFL:

– Manufacturing Literature: rated life for a 3-hr start

– 2000 Ballast Rule: group and spot re -lamping rates (group replacements

are made at 75% of rated life) 

# • IRL: Manufacturing literature 

###  Ballast Lifetime 

# • 2000 Ballast Rule: 49,054 hrs 

###  Repair and Maintenance Costs 

# • No repair or maintenance costs are included 

# • DOE does account for lamp replacements 

###  Analysis Period 

# • Time span over which life-c ycle cost is calculated 

# • Based on the longest-lived baseline lamp in a product class. 

# • The analysis period in years is equal to the life of the lamp in hours divided by the annual operating hours of the lamp for a given sector or building. 24

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## 3-lamp 4-foot Medium Bipin 34W T12 Baseline Standards-Induced Retrofit LCC and PBP Results

CSL Lamp Efficacy

lm/W Design Option LCC $ LCC Savings

$ Installed Price

$ Operating Cost Savings

$ Payback Period

yr Mean Lumen From Baseline

% Baseline 77.9 34 W T12 & 0.88 BF Mag 138.35 N/A 11.04 N/A N/A 0.0

CSL1 82.4 34 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec 156.35 -18.00 65.93 4.44 12.4 7.0 CSL2 85.3 34 W T12 & 0.86 BF Elec 161.71 -23.36 72.96 4.81 12.9 10.9 CSL2 86.2 32.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec 144.65 -6.31 56.52 5.56 8.2 9.6 CSL3 90.8 32.5 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec 136.74 1.60 59.62 8.00 6.1 4.4 CSL3 91.2 34 W T12 & 0.86 BF Elec 162.00 -23.66 76.15 4.81 13.5 18.5 CSL4 92.3 32.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec 132.09 6.26 60.05 8.73 5.6 5.6 CSL4 95.0 30 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec 133.34 5.01 60.90 9.67 5.2 3.3 CSL5 95.4 32.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec 133.47 4.88 61.61 8.73 5.8 8.0 CSL5 97.3 28 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec 121.38 16.96 60.30 12.16 4.1 -1.3 CSL5 96.0 25 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec 125.13 13.22 64.66 11.18 4.8 -0.9

25

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## 3-lamp 4-foot Medium Bipin 34W T12 Baseline Ballast Failure LCC and PBP Results

CSL Lamp Efficacy

lm/W Design Option LCC $ LCC Savings

$ Installed Price

$ Operating Cost Savings

$ Payback Period

yr Mean Lumen From Baseline

% Baseline 77.9 34 W T12 & 0.88 BF Elec 152.66 N/A 62.25 N/A N/A 0.0

CSL1 82.4 34 W T12 & 0.86 BF Elec 154.69 -2.02 65.93 0.37 10.0 4.5 CSL2 85.3 34 W T12 & 0.86 BF Elec 161.71 -9.05 72.96 0.37 29.0 10.9 CSL2 86.2 32.5 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec 144.65 8.01 56.52 1.12 0.0 9.6 CSL3 90.8 32.5 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec 136.74 15.92 59.62 3.56 0.0 4.4 CSL3 91.2 34 W T12 & 0.86 BF Elec 162.00 -9.34 76.15 0.37 37.7 18.5 CSL4 92.3 32.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec 132.09 20.58 60.05 4.29 0.0 5.6 CSL4 95.0 30 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec 133.34 19.33 60.90 5.22 .0.0 3.3 CSL5 95.4 32.5 W T8 & 0.75 BF Elec 133.47 19.19 61.61 4.29 0.0 8.0 CSL5 97.3 28 W T8 & 0.78 BF Elec 121.38 31.28 60.30 7.72 0.0 -1.3 CSL5 96.0 25 W T8 & 0.88 BF Elec 125.13 27.53 64.66 6.74 0.4 -0.9

26

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## LCC and PBP Results for the 75W PAR38 Lamp Operating in the Commercial Sector

CSL Lamp Efficacy

lm/W Design Option LCC $ LCC Savings

$ Installed Price

$ Operating Cost Savings

$ Payback Period

yr Initial Lumens

From Baseline % Baseline 14.0 75W, 14 lm/W & 2,500 hrs, Halogen 25.53 N/A 6.16 N/A N/A 0.0 CSL1 15.9 66W, 15.9 lm/W & 3,000 hrs, Improved Halogen 22.81 2.71 7.55 2.21 0.6 0.0 CSL2 17.5 60W, 17.5 lm/W & 3,000hrs, HIR 21.60 3.92 7.73 3.68 0.4 0.0 CSL3 19.1 55W, 19.1 lm/W & 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 19.64 5.89 9.05 4.91 0.6 0.0



###  Additional GSFL and IRL results can be found in Chapter 8 of the Technical Support Document.

27

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Life-Cycle Cost Sensitivities  Sensitivity Results Shown in Appendix 8B of the Technical Support Document.



# • Monte Carlo Runs: variability in operati ng hours, sales tax, electricity prices, discount rates. 

# • High and Low Lamp Prices 

# • IRL: High and Low Operating Hours in Residential Sector 

# • GSFL: Assume No Ballast Price 

###  Other Possible Sensitivities 

# • High and Low Growth Electricity Price Trends 

# • Variable Start Year 

# • Analysis Period as Multiple of Baseline Service Life 

# • Vary Sector for each Lamp Type

28

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 

## Other IssuesDOE seeks comment on any other aspects related to the LifeCycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses.

29



## ANOPR Issues for Public Comment

 Operating Hours (Issue #6)  General Service Fluorescent Lamp Energy Consumption (Issue #7)  Life-Cycle Cost Calculation (Issue #8)  Installation Costs (Issue #9)

30

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting



# Energy Conservation Standards for General Service Fluorescent Lamps and Incandescent Reflector Lamps ANOPR Public Meeting NOPR Analyses and Next Steps Building Technologies Program Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy March 10-11, 2008

NOPR Analyses and Next Steps 

## NOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Manufacturer

Impact Analysis Utility Impact Analysis Trial Standard Levels Revise ANOPR Analyses Environmental Assessment Regulatory Impact Analysis Employment

Impact Analysis LCC Subgroup Analysis

2

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

ANOPR Revisions 

## Revise ANOPR Analyses ANOPR Analysis Action Engineering Analysis • Consider ANOPR comments
• Revise using latest data Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses • Consider ANOPR comments
• Revise using latest data
• Conduct LCC Sub-Group Analysis National Impact Analysis • Consider ANOPR comments
• Revise using latest data

3

NOPR Analyses and Next Steps 

## NOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Manufacturer

Impact Analysis Utility Impact Analysis Trial Standard Levels Revise ANOPR Analyses Environmental Assessment Regulatory Impact Analysis Employment

Impact Analysis LCC Subgroup Analysis

4

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Trial Standard Levels 

## Selection of Trial Standard Levels  Purpose 

# • To develop a list of standard levels from which impacts are weighed and a proposed standard level is selected

– Each trial standard level consists of a set of candidate standard levels

covering all product classes, and may vary between product classes

– NOPR analyses assess impacts for trial standard levels (not product classes) 

###  Method 

# • Trial standard levels are assembled from the product classes and candidate standards ident ified in the ANOPR

– Candidate standard levels cover a range of efficiencies and can include:

 Most energy efficient level (max tech)

 Efficiency level with the lowest life-cycle cost

 Efficiency levels with noteworthy technologies

 Efficiency levels that fill in large gaps between candidate standard levels

– Each trial standard level consists of the candidate standard level from each

product class that meets one of the above criteria 5

Trial Standard Levels 

## Trial Standard Levels

 A critical part of the NOPR anal ysis on which DOE is seeking early guidance and input.  Trial standard levels are created from combinations of candidate standard levels at a product class level.  Based around a consistent theme, such as lowest life-cycle cost.



## DOE requests feedback on the criteria it should use for basing the selection of Trial Stan dard Levels. (Issue #13)

6

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

NOPR Analyses and Next Steps 

## NOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Manufacturer

Impact Analysis Utility Impact Analysis Trial Standard Levels Revise ANOPR Analyses Environmental Assessment Regulatory Impact Analysis Employment

Impact Analysis LCC Subgroup Analysis

7

Life-Cycle Cost Subgroup Analysis 

## LCC Subgroup Analysis  Purpose 

# • To evaluate the economic impacts of st andards on consumer subgroups who may be disproportionately impacted compared with the general user population 

###  Potential subgroups 

# • The LCC Analysis includes the ability to examine impacts of consumers:

– Operating lamps in a variety of sectors (e.g., residential, commercial,

industrial)

– Operating lamps in a variety of building types (e.g., mobile home, vs.

educational facility)

– Replacing different baseline lamps or lamp-and-ballast systems (e.g., T8 vs.

T12 baseline system)

– Subject to a variety of purchasing events (e.g., lamp failure, ballast failure) 

# • DOE may also consider analyzing the impacts of low-income consumers. 

## DOE welcomes comment on how LCC inputs may change for each consumer subgroup. 8

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

NOPR Analyses and Next Steps 

## NOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Manufacturer

Impact Analysis Utility Impact Analysis Trial Standard Levels Revise ANOPR Analyses Environmental Assessment Regulatory Impact Analysis Employment

Impact Analysis LCC Subgroup Analysis

9

Manufacturer Impact Analysis 

## Manufacturer Impact Analysis
 Purpose 

# • To assess the financial impacts and ot her quantitative and qualitative industry impacts of standards on manufacturers of general service florescent lamps (GSFL) and incandescent reflector lamps (IRL) 

# • To identify and estimate impacts on manuf acturer sub-groups that may be more severely impacted than the industry as a whole 

# • To examine the impact of cumulative regulatory burdens on the industry  Method 

# • Analyze industry cash flow and net present value through use of the Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM) 

# • Interview manufacturers to refine input s to the GRIM, develop sub-group analyses, and address qualitative issues  Output 

# • Industry Net Present Value impacts 

# • Sub-group Net Present Value impacts 

# • Other impacts 10l Engineering Analysis LCC Analysis National Energy Savi l sis Consumer Subgroup Utility Impacts Environmental Impacts

Indirect Employment ts 

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Manufacturer Impact Analysis 

## Manufacturer Impact Analysis Process
 The MIA consists of three phases

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

Industry profile Develop preliminar GRIM* Develo interview guide Interviews& industrywide subgroup analyses Assess direct employment, competition, cumulative burden Finalize MIA results for NOPR

* Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM)

11

Manufacturer Impact Analysis 

### The MIA is both concurrent and coordinated with activities throughout the rulemaking process.

12 Phase I Industry Profile

Phase III Manufacturer Interviews Revised Industry Cash Flow Manufacturer Subgroup Analysis Qualitative Assessment Phase II Preliminary GRIM 

### Manufacturer Impact Analysis Screening Ana ysi Screening Analysis Engineering Analysis LCC Analysis ngs Ana y National Energy Savings Analysis Consumer Subgroup Utility Impacts Environmental Impacts 

### Other Rulemaking Analyses

Impac Indirect Employment Impacts

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Manufacturer Impact Analysis 

## Phase I: Industry Profile
 Collect financial and market information


# • Industry reports


# • Company annual reports and websites


# • Trade journals


# • U.S. Census Bureau


# • SEC 10-K form filings


# • ANOPR information from the market and technology assessment, engineering analysis, life-cycle cost analysis, and analysis of consumer prices

13

Manufacturer Impact Analysis 

## Phase II: Develop Preliminary GRIM



#  The Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM) is an industry

cash flow analysis that estimates the change in industry value due to the introduction of new energy conservation standards.

Manufacturer Prices
Shipments Manufacturing Costs

Financial Information

Cash Flow Impacts, Changes in Industry NPV 

# GRIM

14

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Manufacturer Impact Analysis 

## Phase II: Develop Interview Guide
 A critical aspect of the MIA involves interviews with manufacturers. An interview guide is sent to manufact urers in preparation for Phase III.  Interview topics will include . . . 

# • Engineering analysis 

# • Shipments model 

# • Cost structure and financial parameters 

# • Conversion costs (capital expenditures, tooling, R&D, testing) 

# • Impact of other regulations / cumulative burden 

# • Direct employment impacts 

# • Import / export issues 

# • Consolidation / competitive impacts 

# • Replacement parts or refurbishments 

# • Impact of the standard’s effective date 

# • Other topics important to manufacturers

15

Manufacturer Impact Analysis 

## Phase III: Manufacturer Interviews

 Expected timeframe  Time and personnel commitment for manufacturers (industry-wide GRIM, GRIM assumptions, s ubgroup analysis discussion)
 Confidentiality agreements

16

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Manufacturer Impact Analysis 

## Phase III: Manufacturer Subgroup Analysis

 The subgroup analysis is a more focused version of the industrywide analysis.



# • Gather information about what sub-groups or characteristics are most appropriate. 

# • Work with subgroup representatives to tailor a GRIM incorporating unique financial characteristics 

# • Consider and focus on issues of im portance to the subgroup, including employment, capacity utilization and cumulative burden 

# • Review draft findings with s ubgroup members during development

17

Manufacturer Impact Analysis 

## Phase III: Results
 During interviews, DOE seeks comments and suggestions on the parameters used in the preliminary GRIM. The results for the financial impacts on the industry following these comments are presented in the NOPR phase.  In addition, the results for the following qualitative impacts on the industry are also presented:



# • Competitive Impact Assessment 

# • Manufacturing Capacity Impact 

# • Employment Impact 

# • Cumulative Regulatory Burden

18

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

NOPR Analyses and Next Steps 

## NOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Manufacturer

Impact Analysis Utility Impact Analysis Trial Standard Levels Revise ANOPR Analyses Environmental Assessment Regulatory Impact Analysis Employment

Impact Analysis LCC Subgroup Analysis

19

Utility Impact Analysis 

## Utility Impact Analysis

 Purpose 

# • To investigate the effects on utilitie s from reduced energy sales and peak load demand due to potential standards 

##  Method 

# • Uses national energy savings results 

# • Uses the Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) tailored for DOE’s Building Technologies Program (NEMS-BT) 

##  Output 

# • Change in energy sales by region 

# • Change in the mix of electricity generation 

# • Change in new capacity construction

20

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

NOPR Analyses and Next Steps 

## NOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Manufacturer

Impact Analysis Utility Impact Analysis Trial Standard Levels Revise ANOPR Analyses Environmental Assessment Regulatory Impact Analysis Employment

Impact Analysis LCC Subgroup Analysis

21

Employment Impact Analysis 

## Employment Impact Analysis  Purpose 

# • To report net jobs created or elim inated nationally as a consequence of new energy efficiency standards  Method 

# • Uses the ImSET tool, a spreadsheet model of the U.S. economy that focuses on 188 sectors most releva nt to industrial, commercial, and residential building energy use 

# • Changes in product and energy expenditures taken from the National Impact Analysis 

# • Estimates the national employment and income effects of energy saving appliances 

# • Direct employment impacts taken from the Manufacturer Impact Analysis  Output 

# • Change in employment by sector as a consequence of new standards 22

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

NOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Manufacturer

Impact Analysis Utility Impact Analysis Trial Standard Levels Revise ANOPR Analyses Environmental Assessment Regulatory Impact Analysis Employment

Impact Analysis LCC Subgroup Analysis

23

Environmental Assessment 

## Environmental Assessment  Purpose 

# • To report environmental impacts as a consequence of new energy efficiency standards, including changes in power plant emissions  Method 

# • Energy savings results taken from the National Impact Analysis 

# • National Energy Modeling System (NEMS-BT) provides power-plant emissions  Output 

# • Estimate of national emission reductions

– Impact on CO 2 

### emissions reported

– Power plant SO 2 

### and NO x 

### emissions are effectively capped through

Congressional legislation resulting in little to no emission reductions due to standards

– The mercury cap-and-trade rule was recently overturned by the

courts; replacement regulatio ns are not yet determined 24

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector March 10-11, 2008 Lamp Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

NOPR Analyses and Next Steps 

## NOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Manufacturer

Impact Analysis Utility Impact Analysis Trial Standard Levels Revise ANOPR Analyses Environmental Assessment Regulatory Impact Analysis Employment

Impact Analysis LCC Subgroup Analysis

25

Regulatory Impact Analysis 

## Regulatory Impact Analysis
 Purpose 

# • To investigate the national impacts due to non-regulatory alternatives compared with mandatory energy efficiency standards 

# • The non-regulatory alternatives that may be considered:

– Early replacement; customer tax credits; manufacturer tax credits;

customer rebates; voluntary effi ciency targets; enhanced consumer education and labeling program; and bulk government procurement 

###  Method 

# • Modify NES spreadsheet model to consider non-regulatory scenarios

– Non-regulatory scenarios increase over all lamp efficacy and are modeled

by modifying the base-case efficacy trend

– A percent market adoption estimate is applied to each non-regulatory

scenario. In each case, the percent adoption will be less than the 100% adoption implicit in the regulatory standard option.

– NPV calculated for non-regulatory alternatives in the same way as for the

adopted standard 

###  Output 

# • National Energy Savings and Net Pr esent Value of the non-regulatory alternatives 262 

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Energy Conservation Standards for General Service Fluorescent Lamps and Incandescent Reflector Lamps ANOPR Public Meeting 

# National Impact Analysis Building Technologies Program Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy March 10-11, 2008

National Impact Analysis 

## ANOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Framework Document ANOPR NOPR Final Rule

National Impact Analysis Energy Use Characterization Market and Technology Assessment Screening Analysis Engineering Analysis Product Price Determination Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

Shipments Analysis

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## Purpose

 Shipments Analysis 

# • To estimate lamp shipments and the product mix of the stock over time (2012
- 2042) in the base case and standards case. 

###  National Impact Analysis 

# • To estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from GSFL and IRL efficacy standards at different levels. 

# • To estimate the national economic im pact on the nation (or the Net Present Value (NPV)) from GSFL and IRL efficacy standards at different levels.

3

4 National Impact Analysis 

## Fluorescent Base-Case Shipment Methodology

# of Lamps in the Inventory in 2011

Extrapolated Shipments to 2011

# of Systems in the Inventory in 2011 Total Lumens in 2011

Lumen Demand System Age Distribution NEMA Historical Shipments (2001-2005) Average Lamp Lifetime in 2011 Lamps per System Ballast Shipment Census Data
Characteristic Lamp and Ballast Lifetimes Market Shares of the Lamp and Ballast Inventory in 2011

Market Shares of Lamp and Ballast Shipments in 2012- 2042 Lamp Replacement Shipments Ballast Replacement Shipments New Construction Shipments Total Shipments (2012-2042) Lumen Growth Rate

• Product Mix of Shipments • Product Mix of Inventory

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## 2011 Fluorescent Lamp Stocks
 NEMA provided data from 2001 to 2005 for fluorescent lamp shipments  DOE assumes that NEMA shipments represent 90% of total fluorescent lamp shipments  2011 lamp stocks calculated from lamp average lifetimes determined by assumed market shares of lamp inventory in 2011
Lamp Type Lamp Stock (millions) 4-foot T8 medium bipin 1,670 4-foot T12 medium bipin 626 8-foot T8 single pin slimline 28 8-foot T12 single pin slimline 72 8-foot T8 recessed double contact HO 1 8-foot T12 recessed double contact HO 63
5

National Impact Analysis 

## Base-Case Shipment Forecast Assumptions: 4-foot Medium Bipin  New Construction: Exponential growth of total lumens serviced by 4-foot medium bipin lamps and 8-foot single pin slimline lamps



# • 1.6% annual growth rate obtained from growth in CBECS commercial building floor space 

# • All new construction results in the purc hase of 4-foot T8 lamp-and-ballast systems 

###  Ballast Replacement: 14 year ballast service lifetime 

# • No new 4-foot T12 MBP magnetic ballast purchases after 2009 (2000 Ballast Rulemaking) 

# • As 4-foot T8, 4-foot T12, and some 8-fo ot T12 SP slimline ballasts retire, new 4-foot T8 lamp-and-ballast systems are purchased as system replacements 

###  Currently, the model assumes commercial operating hours and electricity prices

6

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## Base-Case Shipment Forecast Assumptions: 8-foot SP Slimline
 No new construction modeled 

# • Historical shipments indicate a decli ne in total 8-foot SP slimline shipments 

###  Ballast Replacement: 14 year ballast service lifetime 

# • No new 8-foot T12 SP slimline magnetic ballast purchases after 2009 (2000 Ballast Rulemaking) 

# • As 8-foot T12 SP slimline ballasts retire, 10% of those systems are replaced with 8-foot T8 SP slimline lamp-and-ballast systems and 90% are replaced with two 4-foot T8 MBP lamp-and-ballast systems 

# • As 8-foot T8 SP slimline ballast retire, new 8-foot T8 SP slimline lamp-and
ballast systems are purchased as system replacements 

###  Currently, the model assumes commercial operating hours and electricity prices

7

National Impact Analysis 

## Base-Case Shipment Forecast Assumptions: 8-foot RDC High Output
 No new construction modeled 

# • Historical shipments indicate relatively flat 8-foot RDC HO shipments 

# • All new construction assumed to be serviced by other technologies ( e.g. , T5) 

###  Initial (2012) stock of only T12 lamps are modeled 

# • T8 lamps accounted for less than 2% of total 8-foot RDC HO shipments in 2005 

###  Ballast Replacement: 10 year ballast service lifetime 

# • As 8-foot T12 RDC HO ballasts retire, new electronic 8-foot T12 RDC HO lamp-and-ballast systems are purchased as system replacements 

###  Currently, the model assumes i ndustrial operat ing hours and electricity prices

8

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## Base-Case Market-Share Matrices

 Two base-case market share (product mix) inputs for each lamp type:



# • Product mix of the lamp and ballast inventory in 2011 

# • Product mix of new system shipments after from 2012 to 2042 

###  The shipment model assumes that when a lamp fails it is replaced with the same lamp  Key Inputs into the Matrices: 

# • Lamp wattage distributions ( e.g. , 32W, 30W, 28W, 25W) 

# • Lamp efficacy distributions (CSLs) 

# • Ballast factor distributions ( e.g. , 0.88, 0.78, 0.75) 

# • Correlation of the above properties to obtain system distributions

9

National Impact Analysis 

## 4-foot Medium Bipin Base-Case Market Share Matrix Inputs 4-foot T8 MBP Electronic Systems System Characteristic 2012 Shipment Distribution 2042 Shipment Distribution Lamp Wattage 32W 90% 60% 30W 4% 15% 28W 6% 17% 25W 0% 8% Lamp Efficacy CSL2 43% 12% CSL3 29% 10% CSL4 15% 35% CSL5 13% 43% Ballast Factor 0.88 90% 54% 0.78 5% 33% 0.75 5% 13% 4-foot T12 MBP Magnetic Systems System Characteristic 2012 Inventory Distribution Lamp Wattage 40W 31% 34W 69% Lamp Efficacy CSL0 56% CSL1 22% CSL2 14% CSL3 8%Complete 4-foot MBP basecase market share matrices are presented in Tables 9.3.3 and 9.3.4 in Chapter 9 of the ANOPR TSD. 10

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## Example Base-Case Market Share Matrix: 4-foot T8 MBP

CSL Lamp Efficacy Lamp Wattage Lamp Lifetime System Input Power Installed Lamp Price Mix of Systems Purchased in

2012 and Earlier Mix of Systems Purchased in 2042 lm/W W hrs W $ % %

BF 0.88 2 86.2 32.5 20,000 87.5 3.93 43 8 3 90.8 32.5 20,000 87.5 4.96 29 10 4 92.3 32.5 24,000 87.5 5.10 11 14 4 95.0 30.0 18,000 80.5 5.39 0 3 5 95.4 32.5 24,000 87.5 5.62 7 12 5 97.3 28.0 18,000 71.1 5.19 0 3 5 96.0 25.0 24,000 66.8 6.64 0 4

0.78 2 86.2 32.5 20,000 78.5 3.93 0 4 3 90.8 32.5 20,000 78.5 4.96 0 0 4 92.3 32.5 24,000 78.5 5.10 0 6 4 95.0 30.0 18,000 72.4 5.39 2 6 5 95.4 32.5 24,000 78.5 5.62 0 6 5 97.3 28.0 18,000 63.3 5.19 3 7 5 96.0 25.0 24,000 58.1 6.64 0 4

0.75 2 86.2 32.5 20,000 75.9 3.93 0 0 3 90.8 32.5 20,000 75.9 4.96 0 0 4 92.3 32.5 24,000 75.9 5.10 0 0 4 95.0 30.0 18,000 70.0 5.39 2 6 5 95.4 32.5 24,000 75.9 5.62 0 0 5 97.3 28.0 18,000 60.9 5.19 3 7 5 96.0 25.0 24,000 55.5 6.64 0 0 Total 100 100 11

National Impact Analysis 

## 8-foot SP Slimline Base-Case Market Share Matrix Inputs

53% 8% CSL5 27% 48% CSL4 20% 44% CSL3 Lamp Efficacy 8-foot T12 SP Slimline Magnetic Systems 8-foot T8 SP Slimline Electronic Systems System 2012 2042 Characteristic System 2012 Distribution Shipment Shipment Characteristic Inventory Distribution Distribution 59W 100% 70% Lamp 75W 63% Lamp 57W 0% 15% Wattage Wattage 60W 37% 55W 0% 15%

0.88 70% 40% Ballast 0.85 15% 33% Factor 0.78 15% 27% 41% CSL1
8% CSL3 19% CSL2 32% CSL0 Lamp Efficacy Complete 8-foot SP slimline base-case market share matrices are presented in Tables 9.3.5 and 9.3.6 in Chapter 9 of the ANOPR TSD. 12

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## 8-foot RDC HO Base-Case Market Share Matrix Inputs
8-foot T12 RDC High Output Electronic Systems System Characteristic 2012 Shipment Distribution 2042 Shipment Distribution Lamp Wattage 110W 60% 34% 95W 40% 66% Lamp Efficacy CSL0 54% 15% CSL1 21% 25% CSL3 7% 21% CSL3 18% 39% Ballast Factor 0.90 33% 33% 0.89 33% 35% 0.88 34% 32% Complete 8-foot RDC HO base-case market share matrices are presented in Table 9.3.8 in Chapter 9 of the ANOPR TSD.

13

National Impact Analysis 

## Base-Case Shipment Results: 4-foot Medium Bipin
New Construction 7% 1.0

Lamp Replacement 63% 0.9

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Year 4-foot T8 MBP

4-foot T12 MBPShipments (billions) 0.8 0.7 Ballast Replacement 30% 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



###  4-foot T8 MBP shipments grow due to new construction and retrofitting of 4-foot T12 and 8-foot T12 SP Slimline systems  2000 Ballast Rule effectively eliminates the sale of 4-foot T12 MBP magnetic ballasts causing T12 lamp shipments to reach zero by 2022 14

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

15 National Impact Analysis 

## Base-Case Shipment Results: 8-foot SP Slimline

Ballast Replacement 22%

Lamp Replacement 78% 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 YearShipments (billions)

8-foot T8 SP 8-foot T12 SP



###  8-foot T8 SP slimline shipments show slight growth due to the retrofitting of some 8-foot T12 SP slimline systems  2000 Ballast Rule effectively eliminates the sale of 8-foot T12 SP magnetic ballasts causing T12 lamp shipments to reach zero by 2022

16 National Impact Analysis 

## Base-Case Shipment Results: 8-foot RDC High Output

Ballast Replacement 20%

Lamp Replacement 80% 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 YearShipments (billions)

8-foot T8 RDC HO 8-foot T12 RDC HO



###  8-foot T12 RDC HO shipments are projected to be flat due to penetration of other technologies

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

17 National Impact Analysis 

## Fluorescent Standards-Case Shipment Methodology

# of Lamps in the Inventory in 2011

Extrapolated Shipments to 2011

# of Systems in the Inventory in 2011 Total Lumens in 2011

Lumen Demand System Age Distribution NEMA Historical Shipments (2001-2005) Average Lamp Lifetime in 2011 Lamps per System Ballast Shipment Census Data
Characteristic Lamp and Ballast Lifetimes Market Shares of the Lamp and Ballast Inventory in 2011

Standards-Case Market Shares of Lamp and Ballast Shipments in 2012- 2042 Lumen Growth Rate

• Product Mix of Shipments • Product Mix of Inventory Retrofit Rate Lamp Replacement Shipments Ballast Replacement Shipments New Construction Shipments Total Shipments Retrofit Shipments

National Impact Analysis 

## Fluorescent Standards-Case Shipment Methodology

 Develop standards-case market-share matrices 

# • Use shipment scenarios to characteri ze how consumers will change purchase decisions with standards 

# • Standards-case market shar e matrices show movement to higher efficacy lamps and alternate BF ballasts 

# • Separate standards-case market-share matrices for lamp replacements on existing ballasts and for new system purchases 

###  Incorporate standards-induced retrofits 

# • Assumes that the increased first-cost of higher-efficacy 4-foot T12 MBP and 8-foot T12 SP lamps will result in additional voluntary retrofits in the standards case 

# • Mandatory T12 ballast retrofits when no standard-compliant T12 lamps are available 

###  Recalculate shipments and stock product mixes

18

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## Fluorescent Standards-Case Shipment Scenarios

 Scenarios consider lamp price, system lumen output, and system energy consumption as drivers for consumer purchases  Roll-up Scenario – “lower bound of energy savings” 

# • Only consumers purchasing below the candidate standard level analyzed, change purchase decisions in the standards case. 

# • These consumers purchase the lowest first cost lamp option 

###  Shift Scenario – “upper bound of energy savings” 

# • All consumers reevaluate their lamp and ballast purchase decisions 

# • Consumers currently purchasing the lo west efficacy option, purchase the lowest first cost standards compliant lamp option 

# • All other consumers purchase the lowe st first-cost, energy-saving option

19

National Impact Analysis 

## Fluorescent Lamp Standards-Case Retrofits  Increased Voluntary Magnetic T12 Ballast Retrofit at all CSLs 

# • Current trends indicate that consumers ar e retrofitting their existing 4-foot T12 MBP and 8-foot T12 SP slimline magnetic systems and are replacing them with the corresponding more cost-effective T8 electronic systems Increased efficacy standard Increased T12 lamp price Increased T12 retrofits 

# • Increasing retrofit rate of 4-foot T12 MBP and 8-foot T12 SP systems in the standards case at each CSL CSL Retrofit Rate (% remaining stock per year)

1 10% 2 20% 3 30% 4 40% 5 50% 

###  Mandatory T12 Ballast Retrofit 

# • At CSL4 and CSL5, no T12 lamps are standards-compliant. Therefore, upon T12 lamp failure, the entire T12 lamp-and-ballast system is retrofitted and replaced with a T8 system. 20

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## Fluorescent Shipment Forecasts
DOE invites comment on the methodol ogy and data sources used to estimate initial lamps stocks in 2011. (Issue #11)DOE invites comment on the fluorescent base-case and standardscase market share matrices. (Issue #10, Issue #12) DOE invites comment on the fluorescent base-case shipment forecasts. (Issue #11) DOE invites comment on appropriate standards-case voluntary magnetic T12 ballast retrofit rates for the 4-foot MBP and 8-foot SP slimline. (Issue #11) DOE invites comment on the shipment scenarios analyzed and other scenarios DOE should anal yze for GSFL. (Issue #12)

21

22 National Impact Analysis 

## Incandescent Reflector Lamp Base-Case Shipment Methodology

Lamps in the Inventory in 2011

Extrapolated Shipments to 2011 NEMA Historical Shipments (2001-2005) Market Shares of the Lamp Inventory in 2011

Market Shares of the Lamp Inventory in 2012-2042 Lamp Replacement Shipments New Construction Shipments Total Shipments Rate of New Construction

• Product Mix of Shipments • Product Mix of Inventory # of Lamps in the Inventory in 2012- 2042 Historical Shipments of Covered Lamps by Sector

Emerging Technologies

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## Base-Case Shipments Forecasts: IRL 2011 Lamp Stock  NEMA data provides historical shipments for non-halogen and halogen IRL  Assumptions: 

# • NEMA shipments represent 85% of total IRL shipments 

# • DOE estimates that EISA 2007 exem pts approximately 60% of nonhalogen IRL 

# • Non-halogen shipments: 33 percent serve the commercial sector, 67 percent serve the residential sector 

# • Halogen shipments: 60 percent se rve the commercial sector, 40 percent serve the residential sector  Installed stock of covered IRL in 2011 

# • Residential sector: 297 million lamps 

# • Commercial sector: 77 million lamps
23

National Impact Analysis 

## IRL Stock Projection Assumptions

 New Construction: Exponential growth in IRL sockets 

# • Historical annual growth rate of IR L stock is estimated to be 8-10%. However, this growth may be unsustainable. 

# • DOE uses building floor space growth to estimate new construction growth

– 1.3% sockets/year in the residential sector (RECS building floor

space)

– 1.6% sockets/year in the commercial sector (CBECS building

floor space)  DOE assumes other technologies like reflector CFL, ceramic metal halide, and solid state lighting will penetrate the IRL market: ~50% IRL sockets in 2042

242 01

1 20 1 4 2017 2 02

0 2023 202 6 20 2 9 2032 2035 2 03

8 2041 

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## IRL S tock Projection

0 100 200 300 400 500 600Reflector Lamp Sockets (millions)

Covered Incandescent Reflector Lamps Emerging Technologies



### Year 25

National Impact Analysis 

## Base-Case Market-Share Matrices: IRL  Analyzed three lumen packages: 

## • 27% at 580 lumens (50W Halogen baseline) 

## • 32% at 1,050 lumens (75W Halogen baseline) 

## • 41% at 1,310 lumens (90W Halogen baseline)  Residential stock: 100% halogen throughout the analysis period  Commercial stock: 80% halogen and 20% HIR in 2012 50% halogen and 50% HIR in 2042 Commercial Sockets Lamp Design Stock in 2011 Stock in 2042 90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 33% 21% 75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 26% 16% 50W, 11.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Halogen 22% 14% 70W, 18.0 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 8% 21% 60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 6% 16% 41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 5% 14% Residential Sockets Lamp Design Stock in 2011 Stock in 2042 90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 41% 41% 75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 32% 32% 50W, 11.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Halogen 27% 27%

26

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

27 National Impact Analysis 

## IRL Base-Case Shipment Forecasts

Commercial Sector Residential Sector 

###  Shipments calculated by tracking the retirement (based on lifetime) of IRL in the stock  Base-case shipment decline caused by: 

# • Increased penetration of reflector CFLs and other emerging technologies 

# • Shift towards longer-lived HIR lamps in the commercial sector

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 YearShipments (billions)

Base-Case Forecast Historical Shipments 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 YearShipments (billions)

Base-Case Forecast Historical Shipments

28 National Impact Analysis 

## Incandescent Reflector Lamp Standards-Case Shipment Methodology

Lamps in the Inventory in 2011

Extrapolated Shipments to 2011 NEMA Historical Shipments (2001-2005) Market Shares of the Lamp Inventory in 2011

Standards-Case Market Shares of the Lamp Inventory in 2012-2042 Lamp Replacement Shipments New Construction Shipments Total Shipments Rate of New Construction

• Product Mix of Shipments • Product Mix of Inventory # of Lamps in the Inventory in 2012- 2042 Historical Shipments of Covered Lamps by Sector

Emerging Technologies

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## Incandescent Reflector Lamp Standards Case Scenarios  Stock of IRL lamps in the standards-case is the same as the stock of IRL lamps in the base-case in all scenarios.  Main Scenario – “upper bound of energy savings” 

# • Assumes all base-case IRL consumer s continue to purchase regulated IRL products 

# • All IRL consumers purchase lowest first cost, higher efficacy, reducedwattage lamps in the standards case (light output of standards-compliant lamp is same as baseline lamp) 

###  65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity – “reduced energy savings” 

# • Accounts for standards case market migration to the exempted 65W BR30 and BR40 lamps 

# • 65W BR lamp is a direct replacement for the 50W PAR baseline lamp. 

###  10% Lumen Increase Sensitivity – “reduced energy savings” 

# • Residential consumers purchase same-wattage, higher-wattage, and reduced-wattage lamp designs 

# • Results in an overall increase in lumens 29

National Impact Analysis 

## IRL Main Scenario: Commercial Standards-Case Market Share Matrices
CSL Lamp Design Stock in 2011* Stock in 2013** Stock in 2042 % % % 90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 33 21 75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 26 16 50W, 11.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Halogen 22 14 Base Case 70W, 18.0 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 8 21 60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 6 16 41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 5 14 Total 100 100 79W, 16.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved Halogen 32 21 66W, 15.9 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved Halogen 25 16 44.3W, 14 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved Halogen 21 14 CSL1 70W, 18 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 9 21 60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 7 16 41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 6 14 Total 100 100 70W, 18 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 41 41 CSL2 60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 32 32 41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 27 27 Total 66W, 19.8 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 41 41 CSL3 55W, 19.1 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 32 32 40W, 17 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 27 27 Total 100 100 *Base-Case Input Only **Standards-Case Input Only (2013 is the year when standards-compliant lamps are able to fill all sockets. 30

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## IRL Main Scenario: Residential Standards Case Market Share Matrices

CSL Lamp Design Stock in 2011* Stock in 2015** Stock in 2042 % % % 90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 41 41 Base Case 75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2,500 hrs, Halogen 32 32 50W, 11.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Halogen 27 27 Total 100 100 79W, 16.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved Halogen 41 41 CSL1 66W, 15.9 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved Halogen 32 32 44.3W, 14 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Improved Halogen 27 27 Total 100 100 70W, 18 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 41 41 CSL2 60W, 17.5 lm/W, 3,000 hrs, HIR 32 32 41.3W, 15 lm/W, 3000 hrs, HIR 27 27 Total 66W, 19.8 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 41 41 CSL3 55W, 19.1 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 32 32 40W, 17 lm/W, 4,000 hrs, Improved HIR 27 27 Total 100 100 *Base-Case Input Only **Standards-Case Input Only (2015 is the year when all standards-compliant lamps are able to fill all sockets.
31

National Impact Analysis 

## IRL Shipment Forecasts DOE invites comment on the methodology used to incorporate emerging technologies in the b ase-case IRL forecast. (Issue #11) DOE invites comment on the assumptions discussed including IRL operating sectors, market shares of incandescent and halogen IRL, and market shares of exempted IRL. (Issue #11) DOE invites comment on the popu lation of IRL base-case and standards-case market share matrices. (Issue #10, Issue #12) DOE invites comment on the national lumen output projection in both the standards case and base case. Specifically DOE invites comment on whether any shipment or stock adjustments are necessary in response to over-lighting or under-lighting. (Issue #11) DOE invites comment on standards-case shipment scenarios analyzed for incandescent reflector lamps. (Issue #12) 32

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## National Energy Savings Inputs
 Product Stock by Design 

# • Tracked by shipments, market-shar e matrices, and product retirements 

###  Unit Annual Energy Consumption 

# • Per unit values for each lamp or lamp-and-ballast system as developed by the Energy-Use Characterization 

###  Electricity Site-to-Source Conversion Factors 

# • Conversion factors forecast using 2007 Annual Energy Outlook (2030-2042 estimated using 2020-2030 forecast trends) 

# • Factors vary annually and account for generation, distribution, and transmission losses 

###  HVAC Interaction 

# • Commercial and industrial sector: 6.25% (2000 Ballast rulemaking) 

# • No HVAC modeled in the residential sector 

###  Rebound Rate 

# • Accounts for increased lighting usage due to lower operating costs in the standards case 

# • Commercial and Industrial sectors: 1%, Residential sector: 8.5% 33

National Impact Analysis 

## National Energy Savings Inputs DOE invites comment on the HVAC interaction implemented in the commercial and residential sectors. DOE invites comment on the inclusion and the magnitude of the rebound effect for purposes analyzing the expected effects of this regulation.

34

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis 

## Net Present Value Inputs
 Shipments by Product Design 

# • Taken from shipments analysis 

###  Per Unit Installed Cost 

# • Taken from LCC and Product Price Determination (prices and labor costs) 

###  Electricity Prices 

# • Average prices taken from LCC analysis 

# • Future energy prices adjusted according to trend forecasted by the 2007 Annual Energy Outlook 

###  Discount Rate 

# • 7% and 3% real from OMB’s R egulatory Analysis Circular A-4 

# • Future expenses discounted to 2007, reported in 2006$ 

###  DOE also calculates a residua l value in 2042 to account for remaining life of installed lamps in the base case and standards case. DOE invites comment on its usage of residual value to account for the remaining lifetime of lamps. 35

36 National Impact Analysis 

## General Service Fluorescent Lamps NES and NPV Results (Shift Scenario, 7% Discount Rate)
4-foot Medium Bipin

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

CSL1 CSL2 CSL3 CSL4 CSL5Energy Savings (Quads)

0 5 10 15 20 25NPV (Billion $)

Energy Savings NPV 8-foot Single Pin Slimline

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45

CSL1 CSL2 CSL3 CSL4 CSL5Energy Savings (Quads)

-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8NPV (Billion $)

Energy Savings NPV
8-foot Recessed Double Contact High Output

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

CSL1 CSL2 CSL3 CSL4 CSL5Energy Savings (Quads)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4NPV (Billion $)

Energy Savings NPV

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

37 National Impact Analysis 

## Incandescent Reflector NES and NPV Results (Main Scenario, 7% Discount Rate)

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3

CSL1 CSL2 CSL3Energy Savings (Quads)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7NPV (Billion $)

Energy Savings NPV

National Impact Analysis 

## ANOPR Issues for Public Comment

 Base-Case and Standards-Case Market Share Matrices (Issue #10)  Shipment Forecasts (Issue #11)  Base-Case and Standards-Case For ecasted Efficiencies (Issue #12)  NES and NPV Calculation Inputs

38

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting



# Incandescent Reflector Lamps ANOPR Public Meeting

Rulemaking Overview Energy Conservation Standards for General Service Fluorescent Lamps and

Building Technologies Program Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy March 10-11, 2008 http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_sta ndards/residential/incandescent_lamps_anopr.html

Overview 

## Purpose of the Public Meeting

 To present methodologies and charact erize results for analyses to date  To discuss specific issues related to each analysis  To seek input from attendees on methodologies, assumptions and data sources  To describe upcoming analyses and next steps

2

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Overview 

## The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) directs DOE to consider seven factors when setting energy conservation standards Factor Analysis 1. Economic impact on consumers Life-cycle cost analysis and manufacturers Manufacturer impact analysis 2. Lifetime operating cost savings Life-cycle cost analysis 3. Total projected energy savings National impact analysis 4. Impact on utility or performance Screening Analysis Engineering analysis 5. Impact of any lessening of Manufacturer impact analysis competition 6. Need for national energy National impact analysis conservation 7. Other factors the Secretary Environmental assessment considers relevant Utility impact analysis Employment impact analysis 3

Overview 

## Steps in the Standards Rulemaking: ANOPR

Framework Document ANOPR NOPR F i n a l R u l e Effective Date

Market & Technology Assessment Engineering Pr oduct Price Screening Analysis De termination Analysis Li fe-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses Energy Use National Characterization Impact An alysis Shipments An alysis
4

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Overview 

## Steps in the Standards Rulemaking: NOPR

Framework Document ANOPR NOPR F i n a l R u l e Effective Date

Impact Impact Impact Impact Subgroup Manufacturer Analysis Utility Analysis Trial Standard Levels Revise ANOPR Analyses Environmental Assessment Regulatory Analysis Employment Analysis LCC Analysis



## Issues for Public Comment
 Expansion of Scope for General Service Fluorescent Lamps (Issue #1)  Product Classes (Issue #3)  Standards for Color Rendering Index  Selection of Efficacious Lamp Substitutes and Candidate Standard Levels  Scaling to Product Classes Not Analyzed (Issue #4)  Approaches for Establis hing End-user pr ices  Operating Hours (Issue #6)  General Service Fluorescent Lamp Energy Consumption (Issue #7)  Life-Cycle Cost Calculation (Issue #8)  Installation Costs (Issue #9)  Base-Case and Standards-Case Market Share Matrices (Issue #10)  Shipment Forecasts (Issue #11)  Base-Case and Standards-Case Forecasted Efficiencies (Issue #12)  NES and NPV Calculation Inputs  Trial Standard Levels (Issue #13) 5

Overview

6

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Overview 

## Comments from Participants

 Participants are invited to provide summary comments or statements  Participants are invited to raise additional issues for discussion today  ANOPR comment period open through April 12, 2008

7

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting



# Energy Conservation Standards for General Service Fluorescent Lamps and Incandescent Reflector Lamps ANOPR Public Meeting Scope of Coverage Building Technologies Program Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy March 10-11, 2008

EISA 2007 

## Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007

 Amendments to EPCA contained in EISA 2007 significantly affected the scope of coverage for this rulemaking:



# • Set energy conservation standards for general service incandescent lamps (GSIL) (no longer part of this rulemaking)


# • Amended 42 U.S.C. 6295(i)(5) to remove DOE’s authority to consider coverage of additional GSIL, including IRL


# • Modified EPCA definitions for GSFL and IRL, bringing additional lamps under DOE’s authority

2

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

EISA 2007 

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp Definition

 The term “general service fluorescent lamp” means a fluorescent lamp which can be used to satisfy the majority of fluorescent applications, butdoes not include any lamp designed and marketed for the following nongeneral lighting applications: ( i

) Fluorescent lamps designed to ( v ) Reflectorized or aperture lamps. promote plant growth. ( vi ) Fluorescent lamps designed for use in ( ii

) Fluorescent lamps designed for reprographic equipment. cold temperature applications. ( vii ) Lamps primarily designed to pro duce ( iii

) Colored fluorescent lamps. radiation in the UV region. ( iv

) Impact-resistant fluorescent ( viii ) Lamps with a CRI ≥ 87. lamps. (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(B)) 3

EISA 2007 

## Incandescent Reflector Lamp Definition

 The term “incandescent reflector lamp” means a lamp in which light is produced by a filament heated to incandescence by an electric current, and which is not colored or designed for rough or vibration service applications, that contains an inner refl ective coating on the outer bulb to direct the light, an R, PAR, ER, BR, BPAR or similar bulb shapes with E26 medium screw bases, a rated voltage or voltage range that lies at least partially within 115 and 130 volts, a diameter which exceeds 2.25 inches , and has a rated wattage that is 40 watts or higher. (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(C))  DOE plans to continue to regulate IRL rated 40 to 205 watts.  EISA included statutory exempt ions for the following IRL:


# • ER30, BR30, BR40, and ER40 lamps rated at 50 watts or less; 

# • BR30, BR40, or ER40 lamps rated at 65 watts; and 

# • R20 lamps rated at 45 watts or less. 4

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

EISA 2007 

## Colored Incandescent Lamp Definition

 EISA 2007 introduces a new definition for colored incandescent lamp: The term “colored incandescent la mp” means an incandescent lamp designated and marketed as a colored lamp that has-
- (i) a color rendering index of less than 50, as determined according to the test method given in C.I.E. publication 13.3-1995; or (ii) a correlated color temperature of less than 2,500K, or greater than 4,600K, where correlated temperature is computed according to the Journal of Optical Society of America, Vol. 58, pages 1528-1595 (1968). 

###  This new definition effectively removes the exclusion of neodymium incandescent reflector lamps from regulation. DOE considers standards for these lamps by cr eating a separate product class for “modified spectrum” IRL.

5

Preliminary Determination 

## Expansion Scope of Coverage

 “...the Secretary shall initiate a rulemaking procedure to determine if the standards in effect for fluorescent lamps...should be amended so that they would be applicable to additional general service fluorescent lamps...” 42 U.S.C. 6295(i)(5)

 Schedule: Determination Analysis Energy Conservation Standards Preliminary Determination of Scope ANOPR Proposed Determination of Scope NOPR

Final Determination of Scope Final Rule

6

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Preliminary Determination 

## Scope of Coverage Criteria / Rationale

 Statutory definition for GSFL (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(B))  Potential energy savings of the lamps 

# • Estimated using market-share information and incremental energy savings of more-efficacious lamps.  Includes lamps whose shipments may not currently be high-volume but which have the potential to grow.



# • Mitigates the risk that regulating one lamp type may lead to rapid increased sales of other, non-regulated lamps.  Potential for a standard to meet two remaining statutory criteria 

# • Technologically feasible 

# • Economically justified

7

Preliminary Determination 

## Preliminary Determination of Scope - GSFL
 Additional General Service Fluorescent Lamps 

# • Four-foot, medium bipin lamps with wattages ≥ 25 and < 28 

# • Eight-foot recessed double contact, r apid start, HO lamps not defined in ANSI C78.1-1991 (e.g., 86W, T8, 0.4 A, high-frequency) 

# • Eight-foot single pin instant start s limline lamps, with a rated wattage ≥ 52, not defined in ANSI C78.3-1991 (e.g., 59W, T8, single pin)

8

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Preliminary Determination 

### Fluorescent Lamps
8-Foot 8-Foot 4-Foot 2-Foot U-shaped Recessed Single Pin Medium Bipin ≥ 28 W Double Contact Slimline ≥ 25W High Output ≥ 52 W

95W 0.8-Amp

T12 110W 0.8-Amp

T12 60W T12 75W T12 40W

6” Center T12 40W 3-5/8” Center T12 31W 1-5/8” Center

T8 32W 6” Center

T8 Other lamps e.g. 34W T12, ... 86 W 0.4-Amp

T8 59W T8 57W T8 55W T8

Fluorescent Lamps Covered Currently in EPCA Proposed Product Additions in the Lamps ANOPR 44W T8 40W T12 40W T12 40W T10 34W T12 32W T8 Other lamps e.g. T8: 30, 28W;

... 25W T8 9

Preliminary Determination 

## Other Lamps Considered for Coverage
 DOE considered, but is presently not planning to extend coverage to the following lamp types:  T5 Miniature Bipin Lamps 

# • Lower potential for per-unit energy sa vings because they already represent more efficacious product. 

# • Currently small market share. 

# • Regulation of these lamps may slow the adoption of these higher-efficacy products. 

###  Very High Output Lamps 

# • Though may have potential for relatively large per-unit energy savings, research indicates that they hav e small and decreasing market share. 

###  Fluorescent lamps with alternate lengths, diameters, bases, and shapes



# • Constitute a small market share with little potential to grow.
10

## General Service Fluorescent Lamp and Incandescent Reflector Lamp March 10-11, 2008 Energy Conservation Standard ANOPR Public Meeting

Preliminary Determination 

## Consideration of Additional General Service Fluorescent Lamps DOE invites comment on its considered expansion of coverage of general service fluorescent lamps. (Issue #1)

11