PRESENTATIONS BY LBL

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
EPRI COMMEND 4.0 ,

LIGHTING FORECASTING MODEL

INPUTS

FLOOR SPACE

LIGHTING LEVEL

SYSTEM/FIXTURE SHARES (OF DELIVERED LUMENS)

FIXTURE EFFICIENCY

ROOM FACTOR

SYSTEM EFFICACY

ANNUAL LIGHTING HOURS

EQUIPMENT LIFETIMES

ELECTRICITY PRICES

EQUIPMENT PRICES

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
EPRI COMMEND 4.0 Forecasting Model

Illustration of the Lighting Central Energy Equation

50 Million

Square Feet

80% of

Footcandles 0.5 4000

Hours

kWhb S = FSb x FCb x SHAREb x x x x HOURSb,s

FIXEFFS RMFCTR6 SYSEFFS

50 246 gWh 80% Footcandles

64 Lumens

per Watt

1

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
EPRI COMMEND 4.0 Forecasting Model

Depiction of Lighting System Options

4-Foot Fluorescent

8-Foot Fluorescent

8-Foot HO Fluorescent

Fluorescent (Other)

Edison-Base General Service

Edison-Base Reflector

I ieta! Halide

Mercury Vapor

Fluorescent System I

C -- through --

,Fluorescen t System 63

C

Fluorescent System I

-- through --

Flu o rescen t System

Fluorescent System I

Fluorescent System

Incandescent

Compact fluorescent

Incandescent

Compact Fluorescent

High Pressure Sodium

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
Share Models and Stock Accounting

System Share

Decision Models

Building

Decay

Existing

Stock

+ New

Construction

+ Lamp

Replacements

Ballast

Replacements

+ System

Conversions

New

Stock

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
E ICOMMEND

LIGHTING FORECASTING MODEL

OUTPUTS

ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

ENERGY EXPENDITURES

EQUIPMENT E E ITU ES

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Energy Analysis Program, Technology and Market Assessment Group, June 1996

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
OPERATING HOURS DISTRIBUTION

USE DATA SET FROM XENERGY (AGGREGATE D BY XENERGY

TO 3 DIGIT ZIP CODE LEVEL), FOR FLUORESCENTS, AUDIT

YEARS 1990 TO 1995 (40,000 RECORDS)

CLASSIFY EACH RECORD BY TECHNOLOGY TYPE (4FT, 8FT,

8FTHO), BUILDING TYPE AND SECTOR (INDUSTRIAL OR

COMMERCIAL)

LABEL EACH RECORD WITH ONE OF 21 OPERATING HOUR

CATEGORIES (0-8 HRS[WK, 8-16 H RS , ETC.)

COUNT NUMBER OF BALLASTS FOR EACH TECHNOLOGY

TYPE, BUILDING TYPE AND OPERATING HOUR CATEGORY

WEIGHT COMMERCIAL SECTOR COUNTS BY CBECS SQUARE

FOOTAGE FOR EACH BUILDING TYPE BEFORE COMBINING

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
Ballast Annual Lighting Hours in U.S. Commercial Stock

Four Foot Lamp

10K

statISLICS ..................... . ............................................ ..

. ----------- -........

..... .......... ...........

........................................ ............. ....................

...................... ...............,.....-----•............

. v.

Lighting Hours (Hours/year)

Max 8760

Mean 3791

Median 3754

Min

Std De

834

1479

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
_°6L6 WED 19:45 FAX 510 486 6996 EAP LBNL 10 002

cumulative Probability of Annual Lighting- f tours

Four Foot Lamp

0

0

2000 4000 6000 8000 10 K

Lighting Hours (Hours/year)

Cumulative Probability Table

of Annual Lighting Hours

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
06,'19.'96 WED 19:46 FAX. 510 486 6996 EAP LBSL 10004

TOTAL LCC CHANGE: Two Lamp MMES.

Net Savings or Net Costs Depend on Lighting Lours

.... 1 0 ................... ....................... ........... ._....------...... ...... .------

--------------- - _.... ----..;....---•-----------•• ......---------- ---------------• ......

..+ ------------------- ------------------------

.... oor _._.... •- --------------- ....•--------- .. . ............ ..

4 -- .- ------- j - -----------

2 -

-.

0 ------...a ........ -,- r........... ... ........ ....... ..........-- -- ------

------------

4'

-4 - - - - - - - - 4 ^a^sO YS - c^• -Q ¢ ...... ...... .•-=^--- t .4 + + ¢- .. . t t....,..._

C3 Q

®^ ..... ..._ .Y ....... ........... ......_.._......... •Q o .

1 0

2000 4000 6000 8000 10K

Key

0

Lighting .:burs (Hours/year)

I (CC - EEM)

+ 2 (ERS - EEM)

For CC - EE M, Net Savings occur Above 1000 Hours/Year

For E RS - EE , - Net Savings Occur Above 2700 Hours/Year

°- .. 0 14 1...,- ...............

- 7^0 '.YS....^ . ..... ..............

f

.....................-^

0.121

.<.,. _...__ ,' ........... ..........:................

.__ .......q . ........... -. -•-.....-------- .... -•---•------

0 . 02

2000 4000 6000 $000 10K

Lighting - ours

Percent Having: Net Costs

CC - EE -- L5%

- EEM: E

24%

(Hours/year)

Net Savings

U

z

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
Sensitivity PAYBACK To Lighting Hours

Two Lamp F T1 S

18

16

14

12

2

0

.......................ti. .

..................... T------------------- ---

- r...._.............._ .I.....................

..............$ ...... .... .................... . .................... ........... .... ....................

........ ..................................... { ------..... -----•---- ................•---.

....................... { ..................... .....................}.

- ------ --..........

...... .................... .

--------------------- ....................+ .................... ^. ..................

a +

•---------------------- -- ..._...-.......- -- ._...._....r..................-

. ............ . o ........................ ............................................... ..................... ..

o

.

...................... .......... a..o...... .......

.................................. . ......... ^...n..ra : tr-- q..^. o ----------------------

-- +

2000 4000 6000 8000 10K

Key Lighting Hours (Hours/year)

q 1 (CC - EEM)

+ 2 (ERS - EEM)

PAYBACK BY PERCENT OF U.S. BALLASTS

IN COMMERCIAL STOCK

PAYBACK LESS

THAN (Years)

2

4

6

8

10

12

CC - EEM

8%

64%

91%

96%

98%

99%

.. ..¢;...................... .

.....................

ERS - EEM

0%

17%

58%

76%

91%

96%

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
LCC* (in 1994$) Sensitivity to Ballast Lifetime for 2F40T12/ES Lamps

33,000 hours 45,000 hours 60,000 hours

Ballast Type

EEM 174 213 248

Cathode Cutout 168 203 236

Electronic RS 171 205 236

Reduction in LCC (1994$)

33,000 hrs 45,000 hrs 60,000 hrs

EEM to CC $6 $10 $12

EEM to ERS $3 $8 $12

* LCC computed using 8% discount rate , $0,075/kWh and 4230 annual lighting

hours

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
LIFE CYCLE COST ANALYSIS SENSITIVITIES

® Draft Report

Start With Point Estimates Using Average Values for Each

Parameter

Perform Sensitivities at Higher and Lower Values for Most

Important Parameters (Discount Rate, Electricity Price, Operating

Hours, and Ballast Price)

Additional Analyses

Sensitivity Performed on Ballast Life

Analyze Variability of Electricity Price and Lighting Hours

Use Weighted Distributions for Each Parameter to

Determine How Often Certain Results Occur (e.g.,

decreased LCC)

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
ELECTRICITY PRICE DISTRIBUTION

EIA Financial Statistics of Major (146) U.S. Investor-Owned Electric

Utilities (1994)

EIA Financial Statistics of Major (441) U.S. Publicly-Owned Electric

Utilities (1994)

® Combined Two Data Sets to Obtain Electricity Prices for U.S.

Weighted Each Average Commercial Sector Electricity Price by Sales (in

MWh)

0 Weighted Distribution Used as Input to LCC Model

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
U.S. Commercial Sector Electricity Prices

........ 0.041 --------------------------- ---- ..----------.----... ._ .^................---- ------..... .......

Statistics

0.031

0.01,

0

------------------------------

.............................

0 0.05

sL

----------------

Max

Mean

Median

Min

Std. Dev.

0.1616

0.0784

0.0719

0.0162

0.0226

............. ----------------------------

----------------------------------------------

0.2

Electricity Price ($/kWh)

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
Cumulative Probability of Commercial Electricity Price

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

- - - - - - - - - - ------- ------- ------- -------- ^.........

0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2

Electricity Price ($IkWh)

Cumulative Probability Table

of Electricity Price

Electricity Price

Less Than ($/kWh)

Percent of

Sales

0.02 1%

0.04 2%

0.06 27%

0.08 64%

0.10 80%

0.12 94%

0.14 99%

0.16 99%

0.18 100%

........... ........... ...........t...........1------------

------------- -

. lq.

........................r........... ......... • .. . • • • .............. . .. ...... ...

......... ........... • .. ..... . ........ . ......... ........ ........ ......... ..........

.......... ........ -- -------- ---- -- -- .......... ..... ........ . . . .....-.. ........ ........ • ..........

......... ........ ....... -------• ..----- ------. --•-..... ------.

.......... ........ •••--- I - - - - - - - ....... ----.... -----... .. ----- •...--• ••.

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
TOTAL LCC CHANGE: Two Lamp F40T12ES

Net Savings or Net Costs Depend on Electricity Price

15

1 01

51

0

....................................................................................

-10 ...----- boa o¢A.Vh--------------------- ........ ................ .. ...............................

........

.... . . . . f L . 0 6 kW ....................................................................

s ------------------------

-15 k.` ...............................

fo.o6/l\ h

0.0 4 1--------- - - ------- - --- _.ajc

0.05 0.1

Electricity Price ($/kWh)

(CC - EEM)

(ERS - EEM)

For CC - EMM, Net Savings Occur

0.2

Above $0.04/kWh

For ERS - EEM, Net Savings Occur Above $0.06/kWh

0.03 1 ---------------------------- --- - .........

v

0 0.02 ----------------- 04-- - -- ----

o , ^ -. I^^I ...:.

. lld I I,

0

0 0.05 0.1 0.15

Electricity Price ($/kWh)

Percent Having: Net Costs

CC - EEM: 2,%

ERS - EEM: 36

-_._.... ............ f.... . ..................... --

Net Savings

0 YO

0.2

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H
Sensitivity of PAYBACK To Electricity Price

Two Lamp F40T12ES

16

1 4

12

10

8

------------------------------- .............................................................. = ...............................

... ........... ................. ................................ .............................

0

------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ ---------- -------------------

0

............. ... .......... + ------------------------------ ------------------------------ -------- ._....--

c _..- ... ........ ........................... ...........................

`.. - --:.--------g++---------------------------------------------...

----------- ---- ------------------------

0

0.05

Electricity Price ($/kWh)

(CC - EEM)

(Ells - EEM)

PAYBACK BY PERCENT OF U.S. COMMERCIAL

ELECTRICITY SALES

0.2

PAYBACK LESS

THAN (Years)

CC - EEM ERS - EEM

2 17% 0%

4 91% 28%

6 99% 74%

99% 97%

10 99% 99%

12 100% 99%

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0H