1U.S. Department of EnergyEnergy Conservation ProgramforConsumerProductsand Commercial and Industrial EquipmentEnergyConservation Standards Rulemaking forCommercial Clothes Washers and ResidentialDishwashers, Dehumidifiers, and Cooking ProductsApril 27,2006U.S. Department ofEnergyWashington,DC2Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWelcomingRemarksWelcoming Remarks•Purpose of Framework Workshop:–To discuss how the Department will develop andimplement a standards rulemaking for commercialclothes washers and residential dishwashers,dehumidifiers, and cooking products–To solicit information from stakeholders to use asinput for conducting theDepartment’s analysis3Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingIntroductionsandAgenda ReviewToday’s AgendaWelcome / Opening Remarks / Introductions /Agenda ReviewIntroductionandAnalytical MethodologyMarket and TechnologyAssessment, ScreeningAnalysis, andEngineeringAnalysisEnergyand Water Use, Markups forEquipment Price Determination,andLife-Cycle Costand Payback PeriodAnalysisShipmentsAnalysis, National ImpactAnalysis, and LCC SubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysis, EmploymentImpactAnalysis, EnvironmentalAssessment,and RegulatoryImpactAnalysisOther Issuesand Comments / Closing Remarks4Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis5Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingRulemakingBackgroundRulemaking Background•Four products are bundled together ina single rulemaking•Commercial Clothes Washers and Residential Dehumidifiers–EPACT 2005 legislated standards–Test procedureswillbe codified in CFR•ResidentialDishwashers and Cooking Products–NAECA (1987) legislatedstandards–DOE updateddishwasher standards in1994–Electric Cooking Products–DOE issuedFinal Rule in 1998;furtherstandardsnot economically justified asburdensoutweighed benefits–DOE updatedtestprocedures•1997 CookingProducts•2003 Dishwashers6Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingScheduleRulemaking Schedule•Workshop Comments Due –May 11, 2006•Data Collection Complete –June 2006•ANOPR –August 2007•NOPR –July 2008•Final Rule –March 20097Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis8Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingAnalyticalMethodologyAnalyses for ANOPRApproachesKeyInputsAnalysesKeyOutputsMarketandTechnologyAssessmentScreening AnalysisEngineering AnalysisMarkups forProduct PriceDeterminationLife-Cycle Cost andPayback PeriodAnalysisNational ImpactAnalysisEnergyandWaterUseShipmentsAnalysis•ProductClasses•TechnologyOptions•Cost-EfficiencyRelationship•Life-CycleCosts•PaybackPeriods•NationalEnergySavings•NetPresentValues•CharacterizeIndustry•Market Segmentation•Non-RegulatoryProgramsFramework Document•Efficiency-LevelApproach•Design OptionApproach•EnergyandWaterPrices•Installation Costs•Maintenance&Repair Costs•AccountingApproach•BackcastandForecast•Market Saturation•IdentifyFirms/Products•Historical Shipments•DefineDistribution Channels•EconomicCensusDataAnalysis•Retail PriceCollectionandAnalysisDesignOptionsProduct ClassesRetail PricesDesign Energy/WaterUseAdvance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANOPR)•Efficiency/Performance•ManufacturingCostCandidateStandardLevels•AnalysisofEnergyandWaterUseDataTechnologyOptions•Design Options•EnergyPriceForecasts•Site-to-Source Factors•Energy-EfficiencyLevels•AnalysisofMarket Data•AnalysisofProduct Data•InstallationCosts•MaintCosts•RepairCosts•UEC & UWC• Energy&WaterPrices•AnnualEnergyUse(UEC)•AnnualWaterUse(UWC)PreliminaryManufacturer ImpactAnalysis•ManufacturerPrices•AverageCosts•ConversionCapitalExpenditures•Direct EmploymentImpacts•ProductPrototypesEnergy-EfficiencyLevels9Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingAnalyticalMethodologyAnalyses for NOPR and FinalRuleUtilityImpactAnalysisNotice of Proposed Rulemaking(NOPR)Final RuleApproachesKeyInputsAnalysesKeyOutputsRevise ANOPRAnalysesLife-Cycle CostSub-Group AnalysisManufacturer ImpactAnalysisEmployment ImpactAnalysisRevise Analyses•IndustryCashFlow•Sub-GroupCash-Flow•Direct EmploymentImpacts•CompetitiveImpacts•CumulativeRegulatoryBurden•NationalEmploymentImpacts•RevisedResults•StakeholderComments•Demographics•ManufacturerInterviews• GRIMAnalysis•Emission Rates•NationalEnergySavings•StakeholderComments•ManufacturerPrices•AverageCosts•ManufacturerFinancialDataEnvironmentalAssessmentRegulatoryImpactAnalysis•EmissionEstimates•UtilityLoadFactors•NationalEnergySavings•Non-RegulatoryAlternatives•NEMS-BT• IMBUILD•NEMS-BTDirectEmploymentImpacts•NationalEnergySavings•National ProductCosts•NationalOperatingCosts•UtilityImpacts•Life-CycleCosts•PaybackPeriods•NationalEnergySavings•NetPresentValues•TrialStandardLevels(TSLs)TSLs•Department ofJustice ReviewAdvance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANOPR)10Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis11Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingRelationship of AnalysesMarketandTechnologyAssessmentBaselineModelsTechnologyOptionsScreening AnalysisDesignOptionsProduct ClassesEngineeringAnalysis12Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentMarket and TechnologyAssessment•The Department is currently gathering informationincluding:–Market structuredata–Historical product shipmentsandprices–Current product featuresand efficiencies–Product-feature and efficiencytrends–Distribution channel information–Non-regulatory incentives•The Department requests informationthatwouldcontributeto the market and technologyassessment.13Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentProduct Classes•The Department separates each product into productclasses based on type of energy used, capacity orother performance-related features.•The Department establishes separate energyconservation standards for each product class.14Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentBaselineModels•The Department defines baseline modelcharacteristics to serve asthe basis for the analysis:–Includes capacity, configuration, efficiency, andfeatures.–Usually based on themost commonly sold minimumefficiency product in each product class.–Serves as the basis for cost and performanceestimates that are intended to represent the “typical”product.15Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentTechnologyOptions•The Department identifies technologiesmanufacturers could use to attain higher energyefficiency levels for each product.•Initially, the Department intends to develop the list oftechnologies for each product that can and shouldbe considered in the analysis, including all thosetechnologies consideredto be technologicallyfeasible.16Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingScreening AnalysisScreening Analysis•In the screening analysis,DOE will eliminate fromfurther consideration technology options that: are nottechnologically feasible; are not practicable tomanufacture, install and service; have significantadverse impact on the utility of the product toconsumers;or adversely affect health or safety.•Technologies not screenedout are referred to asdesign options.17Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentProduct Discussions1Commercial ClothesWashers2Residential Dishwashers3Residential Dehumidifiers4Residential CookingProducts18Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentCommercial Clothes Washer Product Class•EPACT 2005 establishes one product classforcommercial clothes washers that encompasses bothtop-and front-loading units.•EPACT 2005 defines commercial clothes washersas soft-mount, front-loading or soft-mount, toploading washersthat have a clothes containercompartment that is not morethan 3.5 cubic feet forhorizontal-axis clothes washers and not more than4.0 cubic feet for vertical-axis clothes washers.•The Department is considering using the EPACT2005 product class for their rulemaking.19Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentCommercial Clothes Washer Baseline Model•EPACT 2005 establishes energyand waterconservation standards for commercial clotheswashers:–Minimum modified energyfactor(MEF*) of 1.26–Maximum water factor** of 9.5•The Department is considering using the EPACT2005 levelsto characterize the baseline model.* MEF means the quotient ofthe cubicfoot(or liter) capacityofthe clothes container dividedbythetotalclotheswasherenergyconsumptionper cycle,withsuch energyconsumptionexpressedas thesum ofthemachine electrical energyconsumption, the hotwaterenergyconsumption, andtheenergyrequired forremoval ofthe remainingmoisture in the wash load.** Water factor means the quotientofthe totalweighted per-cyclewaterconsumption divided bythe cubicfoot(or liter)capacityofthe clotheswasher.20Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentCommercial Clothes Washer TechnologyOptionsPotential technology options to be considered:–Added insulation–Adaptive control systems–Automatic fill control–Direct-drive motor–Horizontal-axis design–Horizontal-axis design withrecirculation–Improved-fill control–Improved water extractiontolowerremaining moisture content–Thermostaticallycontrolledmixing valves–Increased motorefficiency–Tighter tubtolerance–Bubble action–Electric disassociation ofwater–Ozonatedlaundering–Reduced thermalmass–Suds-saving–Ultrasonic washing–Steam washing–Improved horizontal-axis-washerdrumdesign21Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentIssues on WhichDOE Seeks Comment•Should theDepartmentconsider differentproduct classesforcommercial clotheswashers? Forwhatreasons?•Aretheenergy andwaterconservationlevels identifiedappropriatefor characterizingthe performance ofbaselinecommercial clothes washers?•Are thereother technologies thatcanimprove commercialclotheswasher efficiencythatDOE should consider astechnologyoptions?•Ofthetechnology optionslisted onthe previousslide, arethere anythat DOE should not consider becausetheyarenot technologically feasible; arenot practicable tomanufacture, installandservice; havesignificantadverseimpacton theutilityoftheproduct to consumers;oradverselyaffect health orsafety?22Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentResidentialDishwasher Product Classes•On May 14, 1991, DOE established energyconservation standards fortwo product classes ofresidential dishwashers.The product classes arebased on the size of the dishwasher (as specified inANSI/AHAM Standard DW-1).–Compact, capacity lessthan eight place settings plussix serving pieces–Standard, capacity equal to or greater than eight placesettings plus six servingpieces•The Department is considering using the productclasses from this previous rulemaking for theirrulemaking.23Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentResidential Dishwasher BaselineModels•The minimum energy conservation standards fordishwashers, as measured by the energy factor(EF*) in cycles per kWh, became effective on May14, 1994.–Compact =0.62 EF–Standard =0.46 EF•The Department is considering using these levels tocharacterizethe baseline models.* Energyfactor (EF) isthe numberof cyclesperkilowatt-hourperyear.24Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentResidential Dishwasher TechnologyOptionsPotential technology options to be considered:–Increased insulation–Flow-throughheating–Ultrasonic washing–Variable washingpressures andflowrates–Variable-speed drive system–Condenser drying–Fan/jet drying–Improved foodfilter–Improved spray-armgeometry–Improved fill control–Modified sump geometrywithand withoutdual pumps–Microprocessor controls andfuzzy logic including adaptive orsoil-sensing controls–Reduced inlet-watertemperature–Increase motor efficiency25Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentIssues on WhichDOE Seeks Comment•Should theDepartmentconsider differentproduct classesfor dishwashers? Forwhatreasons?•Aretheenergy conservation levelsidentifiedappropriatefor characterizing theperformanceofbaselinedishwashers?•Arethere othertechnologiesthatcanimprove dishwasherefficiencythat DOE should considerastechnologyoptions?•Ofthetechnology optionslisted onthe previousslide, arethere anythat DOE should not consider becausetheyarenot technologically feasible; arenot practicable tomanufacture, installandservice; havesignificantadverseimpacton theutilityoftheproduct to consumers;oradverselyaffect health orsafety?26Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentResidentialDehumidifierProduct Classes•For dehumidifiers, EPACT 2005 establishessixproduct classes based on thecapacity of the unit asmeasured in pints of water extracted per day.–25.00 pints/day or less–25.01-35.00 pints/day–35.01-45.00 pints/day–45.01-54.00 pints/day–54.01-74.99 pints/day–75.00 pints/day or more•The Department is considering using the EPACT2005 product classes for their rulemaking.Combinedfor 2007 standard27Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentDehumidifier Capacity-EfficiencyRelationship•An initial reviewof dehumidifier modelsin AHAM’sDirectory ofCertifiedDehumidifiersseems toshowacorrelation betweenefficiencyandcapacity.AHAMCertifiedDehumidifiersComparedwithEPACT2005Standards00.511.522.53010 2030 4050 60 7080 90100Capacity(pints/day)

E f f i ci en c y ( l i t er s/ kW h )AHAMCertified Dehumidifiers28Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentResidentialDehumidifierBaseline Model•Becauseefficiency seems tobea functionofcapacity,theDepartmentplans tocomplete the engineeringand life-cyclecost(LCC)analyses on the productclass with the greatestpercentage ofshipments and then extrapolate totheother fiveproduct classes.•The Department plans touse 35.01-45.00pints/day astherepresentativeproductclass.•The EPACT 2005standard for thisproductclass is 1.30liters/kWh.•The Department isconsidering using the EPACT 2005 level tocharacterize the baselinemodel.29Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentResidential Dehumidifier TechnologyOptionsPotential technology options to be considered:–Improved compressor efficiency–Improved fan-motor efficiency–Improved fan efficiency–Improved evaporator performance–Improved condenser performance–Improved flow-control devices–Improved demand-defrost controls–Heat-pipe technology30Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentIssues on WhichDOE Seeks Comment•Should the Department consider different product classes fordehumidifiers? For what reasons?•The Department seeks inputonpossiblemethods ofextrapolatingthe standardlevelsandnational impact analysis ofthe representative dehumidifierproduct class to the other fiveproduct classes (e.g., maintaining relative incremental energy usespecified in EPACT 2005across productclasses).•Is the energyconservationlevel identified appropriate forcharacterizingthe performance ofbaseline dehumidifiers?•Arethereother technologiesthatcanimprovedehumidifierefficiencythatDOE shouldconsiderastechnologyoptions?•Of the technologyoptionslistedonthepreviousslide,are thereany that DOEshould notconsider because they are nottechnologically feasible; are notpracticable to manufacture,install and service; have significant adverse impact onthe utilityofthe product toconsumers; oradversely affect healthorsafety?31Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentProduct Classes for Residential Electric Cooking Products•For electriccookingproducts, the Department isconsideringproductclasses based onthe list ofclasses defined byDOE inits 1996 technical supportdocument(TSD) forresidentialcooking products.–Electric Cooktops•Lowor highwattageopen(coil)elements•Smoothelements•Grillwithorwithout downdraftfeature•Griddlewith or without downdraft feature–Electric Ovens•Standardovenwith orwithoutcatalyticline•Self-cleanNotanalyzedinthe 1996TSDdueto thesmall amountofempirical dataandbecausethe currentDOE testprocedure cannot measure theenergyconsumption of grillsand griddles.32Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentProduct Classes for Residential Gas Cooking Products•For gas cooking products,the Department isconsidering productclasses based on the list ofclassesdefined by DOE in its 1996TSD forresidential cookingproducts.–Gas Cooktops•Conventionalburners•Grillwithorwithout downdraftfeature•Griddlewith or without downdraft feature•Warming/Simmer burners•Commercialtype–Gas Ovens•Standardovenwith orwithoutcatalyticline•Self-clean•CommercialtypeNotanalyzedinthe 1996TSDdueto thesmall amountofempirical dataandbecause thecurrentDOE testprocedurecannot measure the energyconsumption ofgrills, griddles,and warmingburners.Notanalyzedinthe 1996TSDdueto thesmall numberofshipments, insufficientengineering/costdata, higherburnerfiring-rate, and largercavityvolumespecifications.33Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentProduct Classes for Residential Microwave Ovens•Formicrowave ovens, theDepartment isconsideringoneproductclass, encompassing unitswithand without browningelements, as presentedin DOE’s1996 TSDfor residentialcooking products.•The 1996 TSD notesstakeholder comments requesting fiveadditional productclasses forresidential microwaveovens:–Portable Microwave Only(cavityvolume <0.8 ft3)–Portable Microwave Only(cavityvolume of 0.8 to 1.19 ft3)–Portable Microwave Only(cavityvolume >1.2 ft3)–Portable Microwave/Thermal (convection)–Built-in (fixed)34Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentElectricResidential Cooking Product BaselineModels•The 1996 TSD forresidential cookingproducts established thefollowingbaselineenergyfactors (EFs*)and characteristics forthe largest-selling electricproduct classes:–Electric Cooktops, open(coil) elements =0.737 EF•Cooktopcookingefficiency=73.7%;two 6-inch(1250watt)andtwo 8-inch(2100watt)elements–Electric Cooktops, smoothelements = 0.742 EF•Cooktopcookingefficiency=74.2%;two 6-inch(1500watt)andtwo 8-inch(2000watt)soliddiskelements–Electric Ovens, standardwithorwithout a catalytic line = 0.107 EF•Cooking efficiency =12.15%; clock power=3.9watts; 2"of1.09lb/cu.ft.insulation; 3.9cu. ft.volume–Electric Ovens, self-clean = 0.096EF•Cooking efficiency =13.79%; clock power=3.8watts; 2"of1.90lb/cu.ft.insulation; self-cleaning energyconsumption =5286 watt-hours;3.9 cu.ft. volume–MicrowaveOvens = 0.557EF•Cookingefficiency= 55.7%; input power=1485watts*EFisameasureof overall cooking product efficiency.EFisexpressed asapercent andistheratiooftheannualuseful cooking energyoutput ofthecookingappliance(energyconveyed totheitembeing heated)toitstotal annualenergyconsumption.35Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentGas Residential Cooking Product Baseline Models•The 1996 TSD forresidential cookingproducts established thefollowingbaselineenergyfactors (EFs*)and characteristics forthe largest-selling gas productclasses:–Gas Cooktops,conventional burners =0.156 EF•Cooktop cookingefficiency=39.9%;fourconventional 9000 Btu/hrburners,two117Btu/hrstandingpilots–Gas Ovens, standardwith orwithout a catalytic line =0.030 EF•Cooking efficiency =5.92%;2" of1.09 lb/cu.ft. insulation; standingpilot ignition = 175 Btu/hour;3.9cu. ft.volume–Gas Ovens, self-clean =0.054 EF•Cooking efficiency =7.13%;clock power=3.6watts; 2" of1.90lb/cu.ft.insulation; electric ignition= 176 watt-hours; self-cleaning energyconsumption = 43,158 Btu;3.9cu. ft.volume* EF is ameasure of overallcooking product efficiency.EF isexpressed asa percent and is the ratio oftheannual useful cooking energyoutputofthe cooking appliance (energyconveyedtothe item being heated)to its total annual energyconsumption.36Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentResidential Gas Cooktop TechnologyOptionsPotential technology options to be considered:–Reduce excessair at burner–Electronic ignition–Sealedburners–Reflective surfaces–Insulation–Thermostaticallycontrolled burners*–Catalytic burners–Radiant gas burners**Indicates technologyoptionsforwhichtheDOEtest procedurecan/maynotmeasureefficiencyimprovements.37Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentResidential Electric Cooktop TechnologyOptionsPotential technology options to be considered:•Open (coil)elements–Improved contactconductance–Reflective surfaces–Insulation–Electronic controls*•Smooth elements–Induction elements–Halogen elements–Radiant elements–Electronic controls**IndicatestechnologyoptionsforwhichtheDOE testprocedurecannot measureefficiencyimprovements.38Home ApplianceStandards Rulemaking–No oven-doorwindow*–Improved insulation–Added insulation**–Reduced vent rate†–Reduced conduction losses–Reflective surfaces–Forced convectionResidentialGasand Electric OvenTechnologyOptions–Oven separator–Improved door seals–Steam cooking–Bi-radiant oven(electric only)–Halogen lampoven (electric only)–Pilotless ignition(gas only)–Radiant burners(gas only)MarketandTechnologyAssessment*DOE droppedthe“nooven-doorwindow”optionin1996duetopotentialimpactson consumer utilityand safety.** Notanalyzed in1996overconcernsofpossible reducedconsumerutility.†The1996TSDdid notapplythisoptiontoself-cleanovens.Potential technology options to be considered:39Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentResidential Microwave Oven TechnologyOptionsPotential technology options to be considered:–Added insulation–Reflective surfaces–Improve efficiencyof fan–Improve efficiencyof magnetron–Improve efficiencyof power supply–Eliminate or improve ceramic stirrer cover–Modifywaveguide–Dual magnetrons40Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingMarketandTechnologyAssessmentIssues on WhichDOE Seeks Comment•Should theDepartmentconsider differentproduct classesforcookingproducts?For what reasons?•Are the efficiencylevelsidentified appropriate forcharacterizing the performance ofbaselinecookingproducts?•Are thereother technologies thatcanimprove cookingproductefficiencythatDOE should consider astechnologyoptions?•Ofthe technologyoptionslistedon theprevious slides, arethere anythat DOE should not consider becausetheyarenot technologically feasible; arenot practicable tomanufacture, installandservice; havesignificantadverseimpacton theutilityoftheproduct to consumers;oradverselyaffect health orsafety?41Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis42Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisPurpose•The engineering analysis characterizes therelationship between manufacturer cost and energyefficiency.RulemakingAnalyses•Life-Cycle Cost andPayback Period•Manufacturer Impact•Employment ImpactCost -EfficiencyRelationship

Increme n ta l Manu fact urin g CostEfficiency43Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisMethodologyÕDetermineefficiency levels for collecting incrementalcostdata.ÕCollectincremental costdata, brokendownbymaterial,labor,andoverheadcosts.ÕConductmanufacturerinterviews toobtain a deeperunderstanding of the variouscombinationsoftechnologiesusedtoincrease product efficiency.ÕDocumentthe technologies associatedwith eachefficiencylevel.EstablishEfficiencyLevelsEstablishEfficiencyLevelsAnalyticalReportDataCollectionFollow-UpManufacturerInterviews44Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisEstablish EfficiencyLevelsEstablishEfficiencyLevelsEstablishEfficiencyLevels•Determinethe baseline model efficiency levels•Identify themaximum technologically feasibleefficiencylevels•Determinethe intermediateefficiency levels basedon availableproducts onthe market, existingvoluntary initiatives, andconsiderationof theperformanceof design optionsconsideredAnalyticalReportDataCollectionFollow-UpManufacturerInterviews45Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisData CollectionEstablishEfficiencyLevelsEstablishEfficiencyLevels•The Departmentseeks toobtain incremental cost dataforeachof the four products.AnalyticalReportDataCollectionFollow-UpManufacturerInterviews46Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisFollow-Up ManufacturerInterviewsEstablishEfficiencyLevelsEstablishEfficiencyLevels•Interviews will help understand and documentthecostof improvedefficiency. Example questions include:–What are the typical components of the baseline unit?–What design features are needed to raise the efficiency ofthe baseline unit to a specifiedhigher efficiency? Whatare the costs of these components?–What are the fundamental differences between requireddesign changes that make the cost increment much higherfor some product class/sizes than others?–What capital conversion investments are necessaryateach efficiencylevel? What isthe nature of the capitalinvestments?AnalyticalReportDataCollectionFollow-UpManufacturerInterviews47Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisAnalytical ReportEstablishEfficiencyLevelsEstablishEfficiencyLevels•Document the technologies, and theirassociatedcosts,usedtoachieve each efficiency level.•Compare new estimates ofimproved efficiency withmarket and technology assessment information.•Document any discrepancies betweenmarket andtechnology assessment information,collecteddata,andinformation from manufacturer interviews.AnalyticalReportDataCollectionFollow-UpManufacturerInterviews48Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisIssues on WhichDOE Seeks Comment•The Department requests feedback on theproposed approach for conducting theengineering analysis.49Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisEstablish EfficiencyLevelsÕDetermineefficiency levels for collecting incrementalcostdata.ÕCollectincremental costdata, brokendownbymaterial,labor,andoverheadcosts.ÕConductmanufacturerinterviews toobtain a deeperunderstanding of the variouscombinationsoftechnologiesusedtoincrease product efficiency.ÕDocumentthe technologies associatedwith eachefficiencylevel.EstablishEfficiencyLevelsEstablishEfficiencyLevelsAnalyticalReportDataCollectionFollow-UpManufacturerInterviews50Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisCommercial Clothes Washers•For the purposes of analyzingthe cost-efficiencyrelationshipforcommercial clotheswashers, the Departmentis consideringsix efficiencylevels.•The Departmentseeks inputonthelevelsfor collecting dataandtheappropriatemaximumtechnologically feasible efficiency levels.TheDepartmentalsoinvites commenton suggestedMEF and WFpairings.EfficiencyLevelLevelEfficiencyLevelSourceMEFWaterFactorbaselineDOE Standard(effective2007)1.269.51CEE Tier 11.429.52CEE Tier 21.608.532007ENERGYSTAR1.728.04CEE Tier 3A1.807.55CEE Tier 3B1.805.56MaxAvailable2.793.5**The MEFandWFare notfromthe sameclothes washer. The clotheswasherwith an MEFof2.79hasawaterfactorof6.0 and theclotheswasherwith awaterfactorof3.5 hasan MEFof 2.48. Source:ENERGYSTAR qualified clotheswashersasofFebruary7, 2006.51Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisResidentialDishwashers•For the purposes of analyzingthe cost-efficiencyrelationshipforresidential dishwashers, the Department is considering seven efficiencylevels.•The Department seeks inputon thelevels for collecting dataandappropriate maximumtechnologically feasible efficiency levels.EfficiencyLevel (cycles/kWh)LevelEfficiencyLevel SourceCompactStandardbaselineDOE Standard0.620.461ENERGYSTAR (scaled for compact)0.780.582CEE Tier1 (scaled forcompact)0.840.6232007 ENERGYSTAR0.880.654CEE Tier2 (scaled forcompact)0.920.685Gap Fill1.010.756Gap Fill1.080.807MaxAvailable1.74*1.11***Source: Oregon Department of Energy, TaxCredit Qualifying DishwashersFeb. 2006.**Source: ENERGYSTAR qualified dishwashersasofFebruary8, 2006.52Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisResidentialDehumidifiers•For the purposesofanalyzing the cost-efficiencyrelationship forresidential dehumidifiers, the Department isconsidering fourefficiencylevels.•The Department seeks input onthe levelsforcollecting dataand theappropriate maximum technologicallyfeasibleefficiency level.EfficiencyLevels (liters/kWh)LevelEfficiencyLevelSource35.01–45.00 pints/daybaselineDOEStandard(effective2007)1.301BetweenDOEandDefault2012Standard1.352Default2012Standard(EPACT2005)1.403BetweenDefault2012StandardandMaxAvailable1.504MaxAvailable*1.74* Source: ENERGYSTAR qualified dehumidifiersasofNovember28,2005.53Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisResidentialGas Cooktops•For the purposesofanalyzing the cost-efficiencyrelationshipforresidential gas cooktops, the Department isconsideringtwoefficiencylevels.•The Department seeks input onthe levelsforcollectingdata and theappropriate maximum technologicallyfeasibleefficiency level.EfficiencyLevel (EF)LevelEfficiencyLevelSourceConventionalburnersBaseline1996TSD (withstanding pilots)0.15611996TSD(without standingpilots)0.3992MaxTech (1996TSD)0.42054Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisResidential Electric Cooktops•For the purposesofanalyzing the cost-efficiencyrelationshipforresidential electriccooktops,theDepartmentisconsideringthree efficiency levels.•The Department seeks input onthe levelsforcollectingdata andappropriatemaximum technologically feasibleefficiency levels.EfficiencyLevel (EF)LevelEfficiencyLevelSourceLowor highwattage open(coil)elementsSmooth elementsbaseline1996 TSD0.7370.74211996 TSD/Calculated0.7530.75321996 TSD/Calculated0.7690.7973MaxTech (1996TSD)0.7770.84055Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingResidential Gas Ovens•For the purposesofanalyzing the cost-efficiencyrelationshipforresidential gas ovens, the Department isconsidering threeefficiencylevels.•The Department seeks input onthe levelsforcollectingdata andappropriatemaximum technologically feasibleefficiency levels.EfficiencyLevel (EF)LevelEfficiencyLevelSourceStandardovenwithor withoutcatalyticlineSelf-cleanovenbaseline1996 TSD*0.0300.05411996 TSD**0.0580.06221996 TSD0.0620.0633MaxTech (1996TSD)0.0650.065*Forstandard oven productclass,baseline efficiencylevel assumesthe inclusion ofastanding pilot ignition system.**Forstandard oven productclass,first efficiencylevel assumesthe elimination ofthe standing pilot ignition system.Engineering Analysis56Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisResidential Electric Ovens•For the purposesofanalyzing the cost-efficiencyrelationshipforresidential electricovens, the Department isconsideringthree efficiency levels.•The Department seeks input onthe levelsforcollectingdata andappropriatemaximum technologically feasibleefficiency levels.EfficiencyLevel (EF)LevelEfficiencyLevelSourceStandardovenwithor withoutcatalyticlineSelf-cleanovenbaseline1996TSD0.1070.09611996 TSD0.1110.13321996 TSD0.1180.1363MaxTech (1996TSD)0.1800.13757Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEngineering AnalysisResidential Microwave Ovens•For the purposesofanalyzing the cost-efficiencyrelationshipforresidential microwaveovens, the Department isconsideringfour efficiency levels.•The Department seeks input onthe levelsforcollectingdata and theappropriate maximum technologicallyfeasibleefficiency level.LevelEfficiencyLevelSourceEfficiencyLevel (EF)baseline1996 TSD0.55711996 TSD0.58621996 TSD0.58831996 TSD0.5974MaxTech (1996TSD)0.60258Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis59Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEnergyandWater UseEnergyand Water Use•The Department needs annual energy and waterconsumption data reflecting actual use for the lifecycle cost and payback period analysis to calculateannual operating costs.•DOE will develop average energy and water usevalues.–For dishwashers andcooking products,testprocedureshaverecently beenupdated—averagetestprocedurevalues may already reflectactual consumption.•DOE also will investigate variability.60Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEnergyandWater UseCommercial Clothes Washers•The Department requests per-cycleenergyandwater use for each efficiencylevel.EfficiencyLevelEnergyUse (kWh/cycle)LevelEfficiencyLevelSourceMEF1.261.421.601.721.801.802.79WaterFactorHot WaterMachine9.59.58.58.07.55.53.5DryerWaterUse(gal/cycle)baselineDOEStandard*1 CEETier12 CEETier232007 ENERGYSTAR4CEETier3A5CEETier3B6MaxAvailable*Provide the clothescontainervolumein cubicfeet.•Convert per-cycle values intoannual valuesusing cycles peryear–Multi-Housing: Multi-housing Laundry Association (MLA) provides varioussources to establish cycles/day (1-11 cycles/day).–Laundromats:Coin LaundryAssociation(CLA) provides 3-8 cycles/day.–DOE mayneed toinvestigate other establishments with on-site laundryfacilities.61Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEnergyandWater UseDishwashers•The Department requests per-cycleenergyandwater use for each efficiencylevel.EfficiencyLevel(cycles/kWh)EnergyUse (kWh/cycle)LevelEfficiencyLevelSourceCompact0.620.780.840.880.921.011.081.74StandardHot WaterMachine0.460.580.620.650.680.750.801.11DryerWaterUse(gal/cycle)baselineDOEStandard*1ENERGY STAR2 CEETier132007 ENERGYSTAR4 CEETier25 GapFill6 GapFill7MaxAvailable•Convert per-cycle values into annualvaluesusingcycles per yearrepresentativeofactualuse–DOE test procedure establishes a use of 215 cycles/year62Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEnergyandWater UseDehumidifiers•Determine daily energyuse fromcapacity and efficiency level.–Efficiencylevel:water removedper unit energy (liter/kWh)–Capacity: waterremovedperday (pints/day)–Daily energyuse= Capacity÷Efficiency•Determine annual energyuse fromdaily use and annualoperating hours.–Operating hours per yearnot well defined.–DOE 2003 priority-setting activities used970kWh/y.–Shipments data indicatepredominant use in EastandMidwest.•Withweather data mayprovidean indicationof operationalhours.63Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEnergyandWater UseCooking Products•Annual energy consumption determinedfromEnergyFactor(EF)and Annual Useful CookingEnergyOutput (Outputuseful)–Annual EnergyUse =Outputuseful÷ EF–DOE test procedure modifiedin1997 to reflect more accurateOuputusefulvalues.–Conventional cooking products: Outputuseful55–60% lowerthanvalues inoriginal test procedure.–Microwave ovens: Outputuseful~125% higher than original value.Annual Useful Cooking EnergyOutputProduct TypeOriginalCurrentBaseline EFAnnualEnergyUse947.5160.7277.747.134.2527.688.8173.129.379.8GAS (kBtu/year)Cooktops0.160.030.740.100.56Ovens33002960234293ELECTRIC(kWh/yr)CooktopsOvensMicrowave Oven14364Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEnergyandWater UseGas Cooktops•The Department requests cooking efficiency for each efficiencylevel and standing pilot data for the baselineunit.EfficiencyLevel(EF)LevelEfficiencyLevelSourceConventional burnersbaseline1996TSD (with standing pilots)*0.15611996TSD (without standingpilots)0.3990.4202MaxTech(1996TSD)* Provide the numberofstanding pilotsforthe baseline cooktopand the input rate(Btu/hr)perpilot.65Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEnergyandWater UseStandardGas Ovens•For standard gas ovens, the Department requests cookingefficiencyandelectricaltest energyconsumptionfor eachefficiency levelandstandingpilot data for the baseline unit.EfficiencyLevel(EF)LevelEfficiencyLevelSourceCookingEfficiency(Eff)Standing PilotInput Rate(Btu/hr)Electrical TestEnergyConsumption(kWh/yr)#NA21996 TSD0.062NAStandardovenwith orwithout catalyticlinebaseline1996 TSD0.030*11996 TSD0.058**0.065NANA3MaxTech(1996TSD)*Forstandard oven productclass,baseline efficiencylevel assumes:(1)inclusion ofa standing pilotignition systemand (2)noelectrical energyconsumption.**Forstandard oven productclass,first efficiencylevel assumesthe elimination ofthe standing pilot ignition system.#Electrical testenergyconsumption asmeasured byDOE testprocedure. Includeselectrical energyuse forignition systemplusanyotherelectrical energyuse.66Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEnergyandWater UseSelf-CleaningGas Ovens•For self-cleaning gas ovens, the Departmentrequests cooking efficiency, selfcleaning energyconsumption, electrical test energyconsumption,and clockpower for eachefficiencylevel.EfficiencyLevel(EF)Cooking Efficiency/EnergyUseSelf-CleaningEnergyUseLevelEfficiencyLevelSourceSelf-CleaningCookingEfficiency(Eff)Electrical TestEnergyUse(kWh/yr)#Gas Use perCycle(Btu/cycle)SecondaryElec.Use per Cycle(Watt-hr/cycle)ClockPower(Watts)baseline1996 TSD0.0540.06221996 TSD0.0630.06511996 TSD3MaxTech(1996TSD)#Electrical testenergyconsumption asmeasured byDOE testprocedure. Includeselectrical energyuse forignition systemplusanyothernon-selfcleaning electrical energyuse.67Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEnergyandWater UseStandardElectricOvens•For standard electric ovens, the Department requests cookingefficiency and clock power for each efficiency level.EfficiencyLevel(EF)LevelEfficiencyLevelSourceCooking Efficiency(Eff)Clock Power(Watts)21996 TSD0.118Standardovenwith orwithout catalyticlinebaseline1996 TSD0.10711996 TSD0.1110.1803MaxTech(1996TSD)68Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEnergyandWater UseSelf-CleaningElectric Ovens•For self-cleaning electric ovens, the Department requestscookingefficiency, self-cleaning energyconsumption per cycle, andclock powerfor each efficiencylevel.EfficiencyLevel(EF)LevelEfficiencyLevelSourceCookingEfficiency(Eff)Self-CleaningEnergyConsumption perCycle(Watt-hr/cycle)ClockPower(Watts)21996 TSD0.136Self-Cleaningbaseline1996 TSD0.09611996 TSD0.1330.1373MaxTech(1996TSD)69Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEnergyandWater UseIssues on WhichDOE Seeks Comment•The Department seeksstakeholder input ontheapproaches proposedfor specifyingthetypicalannual energy and water consumption.Mostimportantly, the Department is interested insourcesof datathatcan assistin characterizing the cyclesper year for commercial clotheswashers andtheannual energy consumptionof dehumidifiers.•The Department seeksstakeholder input ondatasourcesthat it can use to characterize the variabilityin annual energy andwater consumption for each ofthe fourproducts.70Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis71Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEquipment Price DeterminationMarkups forEquipment Price Determination•TheDepartmentusesmarkupstoconvertmanufacturerpricesfromthe engineering analysis into consumer retail prices.•DOE needsretail pricesfor thelife-cycle costand paybackperiodanalysis.•DOEmust characterizedistribution channelsfor each product.–DOE understands that over 93% percent of consumer products aredistributedfrom manufacturers directlyto retailers.–Distributors orwholesalers distribute commercial clotheswashers tolaundromats; Route operators distribute to multi-familybuildings.•DOE develops markupsfor each party involved in productdistribution.•U.S. CensusBureauprovidesdataforcalculating markups.•DOE maycollectretail price data for validation purposes.•DOE will investigate the variability of retail prices.72Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEquipment Price DeterminationIssues on WhichDOE Seeks Comment•The Department welcomes suggestions andcommentsconcerningits proposed approach todevelopestimates of retail prices.73Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis74Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingLCC and PBPAnalysisLife-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis•Effect ofincreased efficiency standards onlifetime operatingexpensesavingscomparedto the increase inpurchase price•Approach–Calculate average LCC savings and PBPsfrom average input values–Analyze variabilitywithsensitivities using highand lowinput values75Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingLCC and PBPAnalysisLCC and PBP Analysis InputsBaselineManufacturerPriceStd-LevelManufacturerPriceSales TaxInstallationCostTotalInstalledCostEnergy andWaterPricesEnergyandWaterUseEquipmentPriceLifetimeOperatingExpenseAnnual Energyand WaterExpenseLifetimeRepair CostDiscount RateMaintenanceCostEnergy andWaterPriceTrendsAnnualOperatingExpensePaybackPeriodLife-CycleCostConsumerRetailPriceMarkupFromEngineeringAnalysis(Price isafunctionofEfficiency)FromMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationFrom Energyand WaterUseAnalysis(Use isafunctionofEfficiency)76Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingLCC and PBPAnalysisEnergyand Water Prices•Determine energy prices fromDOE-Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) data.•Determinewater andwastewater prices from American WaterWorks Association (AWWA)/RaftelisFinancial Consultantsdata.•DOE will analyze variability using highand low priceestimates.•DOE will base energy price forecasts on EIA’s Annual EnergyOutlook.•DOE will base water price forecasts on historical trends.•The Department seeksinputonthe proposedapproaches for estimatingcurrent andforecastedenergy andwaterprices.77Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingLCC and PBPAnalysisDiscount Rates•DOE uses discount rates (DR) to discount futureoperatingcosts savings.•DR forresidential products –DOE will usesimilar approachas for otherresidential product standards rulemakings.–Derived fromestimates of the“financecost”to purchaseresidential products.•DR for commercial clothes washers –DOE will use similarapproach as for other commercial product standardsrulemakings.–Derived fromestimates of the cost ofcapital forcompanies thatpurchase commercial clotheswashers.•The Department seeksinputonthe proposedapproaches for estimatingdiscount ratesfor residentialand commercial consumers.78Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingLCC and PBPAnalysisMaintenance, Repair, Installation Costs•DOE assumes that increases in maintenance and repaircosts are negligible formore-efficient products.•DOE assumes that increases in installation costsarenegligible formore-efficient products.–Exceptions are gascooking products that require noelectricity;efficiency increasesrequiring electricity may require electricaloutlets to be installed.•The Department seeksinputonwhether it iscorrect toassume that, withthe exceptionof gas cookingproducts,changes inmaintenance, repair, and installation costswill benegligiblefor more-efficientproducts.79Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingLCC and PBPAnalysisProduct Lifetimes•Past DOE analyses have usedthe following lifetimes:–Commercial Clothes Washers: 10 years–Dishwashers: 13 years–Dehumidifiers: 11 years–Cooking Products•Conventional: 19 years•MicrowaveOvens: 10 years•The Department seeksinputonproduct lifetimes for theproductsof interesttothis rulemaking.80Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis81Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingShipmentsAnalysisShipments Analysis•Required to calculate national impacts from standards.•Required tocalculate futurecashflows of manufacturers.82Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingShipmentsAnalysisBase Case Forecast•The base case forecast:–Depicts thesituation wherenewstandards are notadopted–Servesas areferencepointfrom which toevaluatetheimpactsof standards–Forecastaccounts forproductsgoing toreplace failed units,and those going tonewconstruction•For dehumidifiers, forecasts mayneed to account for unitsgoingto existing households that donot already have the product.•Data needed to develop base case forecast:–Historical shipments–Historical shipment-weighted average efficiencies–Market share efficiencies83Home ApplianceStandards Rulemaking•The Departmentrequests historical shipments and shipment-weighted efficiencydata.Shipment-WeightedAverageEfficiencyShipments,Domestic+Imports(Thousands of Units)Year(EF orMEF)(Water Factor)199019912004Base Case Forecast Data NeedsCommercial Clothes WashersMarketShare (percent)MarketShare (percent)200320042002< 4.0:MaxAvailable =3.54.0-6.0:CEE Tier3B =5.56.1-7.5:CEE Tier3A =7.57.6-8.0:2007E. STAR=8.08.1-8.5:CEE Tier2 =8.58.6-9.5:CEE Tier1 =9.58.6-9.5:Baseline= 9.5< 9.5EfficiencyBins (Water Factor)20042003> 1.89:MaxAvailable =2.791.80-1.89:CEE Tier3B=1.801.80-1.89:CEE Tier3A=1.801.70-1.79:2007E. STAR =1.721.60-1.69:CEE Tier2=1.601.30-1.59:CEE Tier1=1.421.20-1.29:Baseline =1.26< 1.202002EfficiencyBins (MEF)•The Departmentrequests marketshare efficiencydata.84Home ApplianceStandards Rulemaking•The Departmentrequests historical shipments and shipment-weighted efficiencydata.Shipments,Domestic+Imports(Thousands ofUnits)Shipment-WeightedAverage Efficiency(EF)YearStandardCompactStandardCompact199019912004Base Case Forecast Data NeedsDishwashers•The Departmentrequests marketshare efficiencydata.CompactStandardMarketShare (percent)MarketShare (percent)200320042002> 1.09:MaxAvailable =1.741.05-1.09:GapFill = 1.080.95-1.04:GapFill = 1.010.90-0.94:CEE Tier2=0.920.85-0.89:2007E. STAR=0.880.80-0.84:CEE Tier1=0.840.65-0.79:E. STAR=0.780.60-0.64:Baseline =0.62EfficiencyBins (EF)20042003> 0.84:MaxAvailable =1.110.80-0.84:GapFill = 0.800.70-0.79:GapFill = 0.750.68-0.69:CEE Tier2=0.680.65-0.67:2007E.STAR= 0.650.60-0.64:CEE Tier1=0.620.50-0.59:E. STAR=0.580.45-0.49:Baseline =0.462002EfficiencyBins (EF)85Home ApplianceStandards Rulemaking•The Departmentrequests historical shipments and shipment-weighted efficiencydata.Shipments,Domestic+Imports(Thousands ofUnits)Shipment-WeightedAverage Efficiency(EF)≤25.0025.01-35.00≤25.0025.01-35.0035.01-45.0045.01-54.0035.01-45.0045.01-54.00Year54.01-74.9954.01-74.99≥75.00≥75.00199019912004Base Case Forecast Data NeedsDehumidifiers25.01-35.00 pints/day≤25.00pints/dayMarketShare (percent)MarketShare (percent)200320042002> 1.45:MaxAvailable =1.451.40-1.44:Mid Point 2 =1.401.30-1.39:EPACT2005=1.301.25-1.29:Mid Point 1 =1.251.20-1.24:Baseline =1.20< 1.20EfficiencyBins (EF)20042003> 1.37:MaxAvailable =1.381.30-1.37:Mid Point 2 =1.301.20-1.29:EPACT2005= 1.201.10-1.19:Mid Point 1 =1.101.00-1.09:Baseline =1.00< 1.002002EfficiencyBins (EF)•The Departmentrequests marketshare efficiencydata.•The Departmentis requesting thesame datafor other product classes.86Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingBase Case Forecast Data NeedsCooking Products•The Departmentrequests historical shipments data.GAS COOKING PRODUCTS:Shipments,Domestic+Imports(Thousands of Units)Free-Standing RangesBuilt-InOvensCooktopsStandardStandardYearPilotNoPilotSelf-CleanPilotNoPilotPilotNoPilotSelf-Clean199019912004ELECTRICCOOKINGPRODUCTS:Shipments,Domestic+Imports(ThousandsofUnits)YearMWOvensCooktopsBuilt-InOvensFree-Standing RangesSCSmoothCoilCoil/SCCoil/StdSmooth/SCSmooth/Std200419911990Std87Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingShipmentsAnalysisApproach –Accounting Methodology•This approach accounts for productsgoing to replace failedunits and those going to new construction–For dehumidifiers,may needto account forunitsgoingtoexisting buildingsthatdonot already have the product.•EIA’s Annual EnergyOutlook providesforecasts of newconstruction.•DOE needshistorical saturation ratesto properlyaccountfor existingstock of products.–Data providedby industry and government publications forresidential products.–Data neededforcommercial clothes washers.•The Department seeksdataon representativesaturation rates for each of the fourproductsunderconsideration for this rulemaking.88Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingShipmentsAnalysis–Standards ImpactsStandards Impacts on Product Shipments•DOE develops StandardsCaseForecasts fromthesamedata itusedtodevelop the BaseCaseForecast.•Standards Case Forecastsalso usepurchase price increases andoperatingcostsavings toestimateshipments impacts.•It is difficult toobtain datashowingsensitivity of shipments topurchase price andoperating costs.–DOE mayforecast StandardsCase shipments forecastswithscenarios (i.e., specific percentage drops inannual shipments forparticular efficiencylevels).•The Department will consider impacts from market-pull programs.•As part of itspreliminarymanufacturerimpact analysis, theDepartmentwill seek input on the potential impactof newenergyconservation standards on product shipments. TheDepartmentalso requests input on any market-pull programsthat currently exist to promote theadoption of more-efficientproducts.89Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis90Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingNationalImpactAnalysisNational Impact Analysis•DeterminesStandards Case national energy savings (NES)and national consumer economic impacts relative to BaseCase.•Approach –Take individual consumer impacts due tostandards and aggregate themto the national level.•Analysis relies on inputs fromprior analyses:–shipments; retail prices; energyandwater savings; energyandwaterprices; repair & maintenance costs; product lifetimes•DOE calculates consumer economic impacts as net presentvalue (NPV).–Difference between nationaloperating cost savings and increasedequipment expenditures•DOE will use a spreadsheet model to determinenationalimpacts.91Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingNationalImpactAnalysisIssues on WhichDOE Seeks Comment•The Department seeksinputon its plantodevelopNES spreadsheet models for estimatingnationalimpacts ofamended energy conservation standards.92Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis93Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingLCC SubgroupAnalysisLife-Cycle Cost Subgroup Analysis•Determine LCC impacts from standards on anyconsumer subgroups thatmay be disproportionatelyimpacted by new standards.•Possible subgroups for residential products includelow-incomehouseholds and senior citizens.•Possible subgroups for commercial clotheswashersinclude small businesses (e.g., laundromatsandlandlord-owned apartment buildings).94Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingLCC SubgroupAnalysisIssues on WhichDOE Seeks Comment•The Department requests input onwhat consumersubgroupsare appropriate for commercial clotheswashers and residential dishwashers, dehumidifiers,and cookingproducts.95Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis96Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingManufacturer ImpactAnalysisManufacturer Impact Analysis•Purpose–To assess the impacts of standards on manufacturers–To identifyand estimate impactsonmanufacturer subgroupsthatmaybemoreseverely impacted thanthe industry as awhole–To examine the impact ofcumulative regulatoryburden onthe industry•Method–Analyze industrycash flowand netpresent value through use oftheGovernmentRegulatoryImpact Model (GRIM)–Interviewmanufacturers torefine inputs totheGRIM, develop subgroupanalyses, and address qualitative issues•Output–Industry Net Present Value impacts–Subgroup Net Present Value impacts–Otherimpacts97Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingManufacturer ImpactAnalysisLegislative Requirements•The Manufacturers Impact Analysis (MIA)fulfills a legislative requirementtodetermine if a proposed standardis economicallyjustified.–TheEnergyPolicyConservationAct(EPCA)provides seven factorstobeevaluated indetermining whetheranapplianceefficiencystandard[energyconservationstandard]isjustified.(42 U.S.C.6313(a)(6)(B)(i))Twoofthesefactorsrequirethe DOEtoconsidertheeconomicimpactofstandards onmanufacturersandthe impacts ofanylessening ofcompetition intheindustry.Both of these factorsare assessedthroughthe manufacturer impactanalysis.–DOE will providethe AttorneyGeneralwith acopyoftheNOPR forconsiderationintheevaluationoftheimpactofstandards onthelesseningofcompetition.–TheDepartmentpublishedProcedures,Interpretationsand PoliciesforConsiderationof Newor RevisedEnergyConservationStandards for Consumer Products (the“process rule”),10CFR 430, SubpartC, AppendixA.Theprocess rulecontainsprinciples for theanalysisof regulatoryimpacts onmanufacturers–Recently,theDepartmentannouncedchangestothemanufacturerimpactanalysisformatthroughareport issuedtoCongress onJanuary31, 2006(asrequiredbysection141ofEPACT 2005).Underthis newformat, DOE will collect, evaluate, andreportpreliminarymanufacturerimpact analysisinformation inthe ANOPR.Suchpreliminaryinformationincludestheanticipatedconversioncapitalexpendituresbyefficiencylevel andthecorresponding,anticipated impacts onjobs.98Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingManufacturer ImpactAnalysisMethodology•TheMIA consistsof three mainphasesANOPRNOPRIndustryprofileDevelopstraw-manGRIM*DevelopinterviewguideInterviews& industrywide/subgroupanalysesAssess directemployment,competition,cumulativeburdenPhase 2Phase 3Phase 1PreliminaryMIAInterviews* Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM)99Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingManufacturer ImpactAnalysisPhase 1•Phase1 consists ofthe industry profile and preliminarymanufacturerimpact analysis interviews.IndustryProfileIndustryProfilePreliminaryMIAInterviewsPreliminaryMIAInterviews»Occurs during the engineeringanalysis»Topics include:»Shipment projections»Conversion costs»Product mix andprofitability»Marketshares and industryconsolidation»Cumulative regulatory burden»Occurs during the engineeringanalysis»Topics include:»Shipment projections»Conversion costs»Product mix andprofitability»Marketshares and industryconsolidation»Cumulative regulatory burden»Evaluation of currentand pastindustrystructure and marketcharacteristics»Produce an industry profile reportwith aggregatedfindings andcharacteristics»Identify criticalissues thatrequirespecial consideration in the MIA,forexample:»Types orgroups ofmanufacturers»Accessto technology»Potential regulatoryscenarios»Evaluation of currentand pastindustrystructure and marketcharacteristics»Produce an industry profile reportwith aggregatedfindings andcharacteristics»Identify criticalissues thatrequirespecial consideration in the MIA,forexample:»Types orgroups ofmanufacturers»Accessto technology»Potential regulatoryscenarios100Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingManufacturer ImpactAnalysisPhase 2•Phase2 consists ofthe straw-manGRIMand interview guidepreparation.Straw-man GRIMStraw-man GRIMInterviewGuidePreparationInterviewGuidePreparation»Interviewtopics include:»Engineeringanalysis»Shipments model»Coststructure and financialparameters»Conversioncosts»Cumulativeburden»Direct employmentimpacts»Import/Export issues»Consolidation/competitive impacts»Replacementparts orrefurbishments»Impact of thestandard’s effectivedate»Interviewtopics include:»Engineeringanalysis»Shipments model»Coststructure and financialparameters»Conversioncosts»Cumulativeburden»Direct employmentimpacts»Import/Export issues»Consolidation/competitive impacts»Replacementparts orrefurbishments»Impact of thestandard’s effectivedate»Starting point fordiscussion ofimpacts»Inputs include:»Manufacturer prices»Shipment forecasts»Manufacturing cost estimates»Financial information»Starting point fordiscussion ofimpacts»Inputs include:»Manufacturer prices»Shipment forecasts»Manufacturing cost estimates»Financial information101Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingManufacturer ImpactAnalysisPhase 3•Phase3 consists ofthe manufacturer interviews, subgroupanalyses, andassessmentof industry impacts.ManufacturerInterviewsManufacturerInterviews»Confidential discussion of potentialimpacts resultingfromstandards,including:»Obsolescence of existingmanufacturing assets»Tooling»Investment»Confidential discussion of potentialimpacts resultingfromstandards,including:»Obsolescence of existingmanufacturing assets»Tooling»InvestmentAssessment ofImpactsAssessment ofImpacts»Assess competitive impacts onsmaller, significant manufacturers»Assess cumulative regulatory burdenon manufacturersfromamendedDOE standards and otherregulatoryactions»Assess impacts on industryemploymentlevels»Assess impacts on manufacturersubgroups»Assess competitive impacts onsmaller, significant manufacturers»Assess cumulative regulatory burdenon manufacturersfromamendedDOE standards and otherregulatoryactions»Assess impacts on industryemploymentlevels»Assess impacts on manufacturersubgroups102Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingManufacturer ImpactAnalysisIssues on WhichDOE Seeks Comment•What procedures should the Department follow whenscheduling interviews andrequestinginformation?•What are appropriatemanufacturer subgroups foreach ofthefourproducts?•What regulations orpending regulations should theDepartment consider inthe manufacturer impactanalysis?103Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis104Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingUtilityImpactAnalysisUtilityImpact Analysis•This analysis will estimate effects on electricity andgas utility industries ofreduced energy sales due tonew energy efficiencystandards.•The Department will use a variant of EIA’s NationalEnergy Modeling System (NEMS) called NEMS-BT toestimate impacts.•Results are similar to whatis found in EIA’s AnnualEnergy Outlook.105Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingUtilityImpactAnalysisIssues on WhichDOE Seeks Comment•The Department seeksinputon its proposeduse ofNEMS-BTto conductthe utility impact analysis.106Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis107Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEmploymentImpactAnalysisEmployment Impact Analysis•Estimate indirect employmentimpacts that occur fromstandards.–The Department estimates direct employment impactsin the manufacturer impact analysis.•DOE will use PNNL’s‘Impact of Sector EnergyTechnologies’(ImSET) model.–Estimates the employment and income effects ofenergy-saving technologies in buildings, industry, andtransportation.108Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEmploymentImpactAnalysisIssues on WhichDOE Seeks Comment•Is this anacceptable approach toassessingemployment impacts?109Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis110Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEnvironmentalAssessmentEnvironmental Assessment•This assessment estimatesthe impact of standards onthree types of energy-related emissions: carbondioxide (CO2), oxidesof nitrogen (NOx), and sulfurdioxide (SO2).•The Department will use NEMS-BT to estimateemissions impacts from power plants.•DOE will carry out a separate analysis to estimate inbuilding emissions fromgas-fired appliances (gascooking products and water heating for dishwashersand commercial clothes washers).111Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingEnvironmentalAssessmentIssues on WhichDOE Seeks Comment•Are there any other environmentalfactors theDepartment should consider inthis rulemaking?112Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingWorkshop Content1Introduction9Shipments Analysis2Analytical Methodology10National ImpactAnalysis3Market and TechnologyAssessment11Life-Cycle Cost SubgroupAnalysis4Screening Analysis12Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis5Engineering Analysis13UtilityImpactAnalysis6Energyand Water Use14EmploymentImpactAnalysis7Markups for Equipment PriceDetermination15Environmental Assessment8Life-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalysis16RegulatoryImpactAnalysis113Home ApplianceStandards RulemakingRegulatoryImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpact Analysis•This analysis estimates thepotential for non-regulatoryapproaches to supplantor augment efficiencystandards to improve product efficiency.•The Department will evaluate past, existing, andexpected non-regulatory programs.