# Technical Support Document for the Development of the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonattainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region Version 3.3
Rev.2

Prepared for:
Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Mana gement Association (MARAMA) 8600 LaSalle Road, Suite 636 Towson, MD 21286 (443) 901-1882

January 23, 2012 MARAMA Contract Agreement FY2011-004

Submitted by

AMEC Environment & Infrastructure SRA International, Inc. 4021 Stirrup Creek Drive 652 Peter Jefferson Parkway Suite 100 Suite 300 Durham, NC 27703 Charlottesville, VA 22911 919 381-9900 571 499-0833

Note: Revision 1 includes a revi sion by New Jersey to Exhibit 7.7. Revision 2 includes revised CT & VA NMIM runs. – By MARAMA, Mar. 2012

### Acknowledgements
Funds for this CONTRACT are provided by MA RAMA’s Memorandum of Agreement with the Ozone Transport Commission (OTC), which is funded by USEPA grant agreement XA973181 – Regional Haze Planning in the Northeast and Mi d-Atlantic States (CFDA 66.034). The purpose of that Memorandum of Agreement is to support the Mid-Atlantic / Nort heast Visibility Union (MANE-VU) in developing programs to control regi onal haze or visibility impairment in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states.

About MARAMA
The Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association, Inc. is a voluntary, non-profit association of ten state and local air pollution control agen cies. MARAMA's mission is to strengthen the skills and capabi lities of member agencies and to help them work together to prevent and reduce air pollution in the Mid-Atla ntic Region. MARAMA provides cost-effective approaches to regional collaboration by pooling re sources to develop and analyze data, share ideas, and train staff to implement common requirements.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page i


## Table of Contents

1.0 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. ................................... 1

1.1 INVENTORY PURPOSE ....................................................................................................................... ........ 1 1.2 SOURCE CATEGORIES .................................................................................................................... ............ 1 1.3 GEOGRAPHIC AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION ...................................................................................... 2 1.4 POLLUTANTS .................................................................................................................... ........................... 3 1.5 DATA FORMATS ....................................................................................................................... ................... 3 1.6 INVENTORY VERSIONS ...................................................................................................................... ....... 3 1.6.1 Version 2 Modeling Inventorie s with Existin g Controls ........................................................................ 3 1.6.2 Version 3 Modeling Inventorie s with Existin g Controls ........................................................................ 3 1.6.3 Version 3 2025 Inventory for PM Nonattainment Counties ................................................................... 4 1.7 REPORT ORGANIZATION .................................................................................................................. ........ 5

2.0 AREA SOURCES .............................................................................................................. .................................... 8

2.1 AREA SOURCE CATEGORIES .................................................................................................................... 8 2.2 2007 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT ........................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Adjustments to the 2007 Inventory Used for the 2025 Projections ........................................................ 8 2.3 2025 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................................... 13 2.3.1 Area Source Growth Factors .................................................................................................... ........... 13
2.3.1.1 AEO Fuel Use Projection ....................................................................................................... ......................... 13 2.3.1.2 Population Pr ojections......................................................................................................... ............................ 14 2.3.1.3 Employment Pr ojecti ons ........................................................................................................ ......................... 15 2.3.1.4 VMT Projections ............................................................................................................... .............................. 15 2.3.1.5 No Growth Assignment for Cert ain Area Source Categories ....................................................................... ... 25 2.3.1.6 USEPA 2020 Projections fo r Resident ial Wood ................................................................................... .......... 26 2.3.1.7 SCC, SIC, NAICS and Grow th Parameter Crosswalk ................................................................................ ..... 27 2.3.1.8 Final Version 2 Growth F actors for Area Sources ............................................................................... ........... 27 2.3.1.9 Version 3 Update to New Jersey Gr owth Factors for Area Sources ................................................................ 28 2.3.1.10 Version 3 Update to Growth Factors for the District of Columb ia ............................................................ 28 2.3.2 Area Source Cont rol Factors ................................................................................................... ............ 30
2.3.2.1 Federal Rules Affect ing Area Sources .......................................................................................... .................. 30 2.3.2.2 Federal MACT Rules ............................................................................................................ .......................... 30 2.3.2.3 OTC Model Rules fo r VOC Sources ............................................................................................... ................ 31 2.3.2.4 OTC Model Rule fo r ICI Boilers................................................................................................. .................... 32 2.3.2.5 MANE-VU Fuel Oil Sulfur Strategy .............................................................................................. ................. 33

3.0 POINT SOURCES ............................................................................................................. .................................. 45

3.1 POINT SOURCE CATEGORIES ................................................................................................................. 45 3.2 2007 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................................... 45 3.2.1 Adjustments to the 2007 Inventory Used for the 2025 Projections ...................................................... 46 3.3 2025 NONEGU INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT ....................................................................................... 47 3.3.1 NonEGU Growth Factors ......................................................................................................... ........... 47 3.3.2 Emission Reduc tion Credits .................................................................................................... ............. 49 3.3.3 NonEGU Control Factors ........................................................................................................ ............ 50
3.3.3.1 Federal Actions Affectin g NonEGU Poin t Sources ................................................................................ ........ 50Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page ii

3.3.3.2 OTC 2001 Model Rule s for N onEGUs .............................................................................................. ............. 52 3.3.3.3 OTC 2006 Model Rule s for N onEGUs .............................................................................................. ............. 52 3.3.3.4 MANE-VU Fuel Oil Sulfur Strategy .............................................................................................. ................. 55 3.3.3.5 State-specific NonE GU Control Factors ......................................................................................... ................ 55 3.4 2025 EGU INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................................ 57 3.4.1 EGU Growth Factors ............................................................................................................ ............... 58 3.4.2 EGU Control Factors ........................................................................................................... ............... 62 3.4.3 Consideration of CSAPR Emission A llowances ................................................................................... 63

4.0 NONROAD MOBILE SOURCES INCLUDED IN NMIM ............................................................................. 64

4.1 NONROAD MODEL CATEGORIES .......................................................................................................... 64 4.2 2007 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................................... 64 4.3 2025 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................................... 65 4.4 REMOVAL OF AIRPORT GROUND SUPPORT EQUIPMENT ................................................................ 65 4.5 NMIM/NONROAD GROWTH AND CONTROL INFORMATION ........................................................... 65
5.0 MARINE VESSELS, AIRPORTS, AND RAILROADS .................................................................................. 70

5.1 MAR INVENTORY CATEGORIES ............................................................................................................ 70 5.2 2007 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................................... 70 5.3 2025 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................................... 70 5.3.1 Commercial Mari ne Vessels ..................................................................................................... ........... 70
5.3.1.1 CMV Diesel Grow th Factors ..................................................................................................... ...................... 71 5.3.1.2 CMV Diesel Cont rol Factors .................................................................................................... ....................... 71 5.3.1.3 CMV Residual Oil Gr owth Factors ............................................................................................... .................. 72 5.3.1.4 CMV Residual Oil C ontrol Factors .............................................................................................. ................... 73 5.3.1.5 Military Vessels Growth and Control Factors ................................................................................... .............. 74 5.3.1.6 State-specific CM V Updates for 2025 ........................................................................................... ................. 74 5.3.2 Airports ...................................................................................................................... .......................... 74 5.3.2.1 Airport Growth Factors ........................................................................................................ ........................... 75 5.3.2.2 Aircraft Cont rol Factors ...................................................................................................... ............................ 76 5.3.2.3 State-specific Airpor t Updates for 2025

....................................................................................... ................... 77 5.3.3 Railroad Loco motives .......................................................................................................... ................ 77 5.3.3.1 Railroad Growth Factors ....................................................................................................... .......................... 77 5.3.3.2 Railroad Contro l Factors ...................................................................................................... ........................... 78 5.3.3.3 State-specific Railroa d Updates for 2025 ...................................................................................... .................. 79

6.0 ONROAD MOBILE SOURCES INCLUDED IN MOVES ............................................................................. 80

6.1 MOVES MODEL CATEGORIES ................................................................................................................ 80 6.2 2007 MOVES MODEL INVENTORY ......................................................................................................... 80 6.3 2025 MOVES MODEL INVENTORY ......................................................................................................... 80

7.0 EMISSION SUMMARIES ........................................................................................................ ......................... 81

8.0 DELIVE RABLES .............................................................................................................. .................................. 94

9.0 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ .................................... 96Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page iii 

## List of Appendices

Appendix A1 AEO2010 New England.xls Appendix A2 AEO2010 Mid Atlantic.xls Appendix A3 AEO2010 South Atlantic.xls Appendix A4 AEO2011 New England.xls Appendix A5 AEO2011 Mid Atlantic.xls Appendix A6 AEO2011 South Atlantic.xls Appendix A7 AEO2010 vs AEO2011 Comparison.docx Appendix B Population_Factors.xls Appendix C Employment_Factors.xls Appendix D VMT GF Nonattainment Counties.xls Appendix E EPA2020 Res Wood.xls Appendix F AEO2011-Electricity Generation by EMM.xlsx Appendix G UAF NEEDS Control FileMASTER92211.xls Appendix H MAR Growth and Control.xlsDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page iv


## List of Exhibits

Exhibit 1-1 Comparison of Data Used for the 2025 PM Nonattainment Inventory and Version 3 of the Modeling Inventory
Exhibit 1-2 List of PM Nonattainment Areas and Counties Exhibit 2-1 Area Source SCCs Affected by PM Transport Fraction Exhibit 2-2 PM Transport Fractions for PM Nonattainment Counties Exhibit 2-3 Comparison of 2007 Paved Road Dust PM10 Emission Estimates Exhibit 2-4 Comparison of 2007 Paved Road Dust PM2.5 Emission Estimates Exhibit 2-5 Growth Factors for Coal Fuel Use by AEO Region 2007 - 2025 Exhibit 2-6 Growth Factors for Residual Oil Fuel Use by AEO Region 2007 - 2025 Exhibit 2-7 Growth Factors for Distillate Oil Fuel Use by AEO Region 2007 - 2025 Exhibit 2-8 Growth Factors for Natural Gas Fuel Use by AEO Region 2007 - 2025 Exhibit 2-9 Growth Factors for Gasoline Fuel Use by AEO Region 2007 – 2025 Exhibit 2-10 Population Growth Factors by AEO Region 2007 – 2025 Exhibit 2-11 Employment Growth Factors by AEO Region 2007 – 2025
Exhibit 2-12 2007 and 2025 VMT and the 2007-2025 Growth Factor Exhibit 2-13 Area Source Categories with No Growth Assignment Exhibit 2-14 State Recommendations to Address Negative Growth and Other Growth Factors for the Area Source Sector
Exhibit 2-15 Exhibit 2-15 USEPA Estimated Percent Reductions for RICE MACT Standard
Exhibit 2-16 Area Source Emission R eductions from New Jersey ICI Boiler NO x Rules Exhibit 2-17 MANE-VU Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Strategy
Exhibit 2-18 Sulfur Content and Control Factors for Residential Fuel Oil Combustion
Exhibit 2-19 Sulfur Content and Control Factors for Distillate Fuel Oil Combustion
Exhibit 2-20 Sulfur Content and Control Factors for Residual Fuel Oil Combustion
Exhibit 3-1 NonEGU Point Source S CCs Affected by PM Transport Fraction Exhibit 3-2 State Recommendations to Address Negative Growth for the NonEGU Point Source Sector
Exhibit 3-3 USEPA Estimated Percent Reductions for RICE MACT Standard Exhibit 3-4 NonEGU Point Source Emission Reductions from New Jersey ICI Boiler NO x Rules Exhibit 3.5 Electricity Market Module Regions Exhibit 3.6 Electricity Generation Growth Factors for Coal Exhibit 3.7 Electricity Generation Growth Factors for Petroleum Exhibit 3.8 Electricity Generation Growth Factors for Natural GasDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page v
Exhibit 3.9 Electricity Generation Growth Factors for Renewables Exhibit 4-1 Control Programs In cluded in the NMIM/NONROAD Model Exhibit 5-1 CMV Diesel Control Factors by Year and Pollutant Exhibit 5-2 CMV Residual Oil Control Factors by Year and Pollutant Exhibit 5-3 Crosswalk between SCC and FAA Operations Type Exhibit 5-4 Region-wide Growth Facto rs from 2007 by FAA Operations Type Exhibit 5-5 Rail Control Factors by Year, Pollutant, and SCC Exhibit 7.1 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Allentown, PA Exhibit 7.2 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Baltimore, MD Exhibit 7.3 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV Exhibit 7.4 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle-York, PA Exhibit 7.5 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Johnstown, PA Exhibit 7.6 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Lancaster, PA Exhibit 7.7 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Metro New York/Northern New Jersey/Long Island NY/NJ/CT Exhibit 7.8 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Philadelphia-Wilmington, PA/DE/NJ Exhibit 7.9 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley, PA Exhibit 7.10 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Reading, PA Exhibit 7.11 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Washington DC/MD/VA Exhibit 7.12 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: York, PA
Exhibit 8.1 Final DeliverablesDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page vi 

## Acronyms and Abbreviations

Acronym Description
CAA Clean Air Act CAMD Clean Air Markets Division (USEPA) CEM Continuous emission monitoring CMV Commercial marine vessel CO Carbon monoxide EGU Electric generating unit ERTAC Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee FIPS Federal Information Processing Standard GSE Ground support equipment MACT Maximum achievable control technology MANE-VU Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union MANE-VU+VA MANE-VU states plus Virginia MAR Marine, airport, rail MARAMA Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association MOBILE6 USEPA model MOVES Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator model NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NAICS North American Industry Classification System code NCD National county database NEI National Emission Inventory NESCAUM Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management NIF3.0 NEI Input Format Version 3.0 NMIM National Mobile Input Model NOF3.0 NEI Output Format Version 3.0 NONROAD USEPA model NO x Oxides of nitrogen ORL One-record-per-line (SMOKE format) OTAQ Office of Transportation and Air Quality (USEPA) PFC Portable fuel container PM-CON Primary PM, condensable portion only ( < 1 micron) PM-FIL Primary PM, Filterable portion only

PM-PRI Primary PM, includes filterable and condensable PM-PRI= PM-FIL + PM-CON PM10-FIL Primary PM10, filterable portion only

PM10-PRI Primary PM10, includes filterable and condensable, PM10- PRI = PM0-FIL + PM-CON PM25-FIL Primary PM2.5, filterable portion onlyDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page vii

Acronym Description

PM25-PRI Primary PM2.5, includes filterable and condensable PM25-PRI= PM25-FIL + PM-CON RWC Residential wood combustion SEMAP Southeast Modeling, Analysis and Planning SIC Standard Industrial Classification code SIP State Implementation Plan SCC Source classification code S/L State/local SMOKE Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions SO 2 Sulfur dioxide TSD Technical Support Document USEPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency VISTAS Visibility Improvement State and Tr ibal Association of the Southeast VMT Vehicle miles traveled VOC Volatile organic compoundsDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 1



## 1.0 INTRODUCTION
This technical support document (TSD) explains the data sources, methods, and results for preparing emission projections for 2025 for part iculate matter (PM) nonattainment areas in the Mid-Atlantic / Northeast Visibilit y Union (MANE-VU) region. The MANE-VU region includes Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Virginia is not included in the MANE-VU region; however , several cities and counties in northern Virginia were included in this inventory as they are part of a nonattainment area that include s MANE-VU jurisdictions.

1.1 INVENTORY PURPOSE
The Clean Air Act (CAA), as amended, requires e ach state with areas failing to meet the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS ) to develop State Implementation Plans (SIPs) to expeditiously attain and maintain the standards. The CAA allows states to request nonattainment areas to be re-designated to attainment provided certain criteria are met. For particulate matter, the U.S. Envi ronmental Protections Agency’s (USEPA’s) redesignation guidance requires th e submittal of a comprehensive inventory of direct PM2.5 emissions and emissions of PM precursors representative of the year when the area achieves attainment of the PM2.5 air quality standards. Another emission inventory related requirement includes a projection of th e emission inventory to a year at least 10 years following re-designation.
To support state’s efforts in developing PM2.5 maintenance plans and re-designation requests, MARAMA issued a contract to AM EC to assemble a comprehensive emission inventory for 2025. A workgroup was formed to guide the 2025 inventory development process. Participants included a member fr om each state with a PM2.5 nonattainment area, as follows: Paul Bodner (CT), Dave Fees and Jack Sipple (DE), Roger Thunell (MD), Judy Rand and Danny Wong (NJ), Ron Stannard (NY), Arleen Shulman (PA), and Doris McLeod (VA). The committee has met via telec onference on multiple occasions to discuss plans for the 2025 inventory. The 2025 inventor y was developed using a combination of MARAMA’s in-house resources, support from state agencies and c ontractor support from AMEC and SRA International, Inc.

1.2 SOURCE CATEGORIES
This report documents the development of an nual emission projections for 2025 for each of these sectors, as follows:Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 2



###  EGU Point Sources are units that generate electr ic power and sell most of the power generated to the electrical grid.

 NonEGU Point Sources are individual industrial, commercial, and institutional facilities and are further s ubdivided by stack, emission unit, and emission process.

 Stationary Area Sources include sources that in and of themselves are quite small, but in aggregate may contribute signifi cant emissions. Examples include small industrial/commercial faciliti es, residential heating fu rnaces, VOCs volatizing from house painting or consumer products, gaso line service stations , and agricultural fertilizer/pesticide application.

 Non-road Mobile Sources include internal combustion engines used to propel marine vessels, airplanes, and locomotiv es, or to operate equipment such as forklifts, lawn and garden equipment, porta ble generators, etc. For activities other than marine vessels, airplanes, and railr oad locomotives (MAR), the inventory was developed using the most current ve rsion of USEPA’s NONROAD model as embedded in the National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM). Because the NONROAD model does not incl ude emissions from MAR so urces, these emissions were estimated based on data and methodol ogies used in recent USEPA regulatory impact analyses.

 On-road Mobile Sources are sources of air pollution from internal combustion engines used to propel cars, trucks, buses, and other vehicles on public roadways. Emission projections for on-road mobile sources were developed by MARAMA or state staff using USEPA’s Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model.
Biogenic/geogenic emissions are not included in this inventory.

1.3 GEOGRAPHIC AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION
The geographic area for the 2025 inventory includ es only those counties that are classified as nonattainment for the annual (1997) or daily (2006) particulat e matter NAAQS. The inventory was developed at the county-level for non-point sources and at the process level for point sources.
Annual inventories are required for re-designati on of areas designated as nonattainment for the 1997 and 2006 NAAQS. Other inventory elements required by USEPA (such as interim inventory years) are being addressed by individual states in their SIP submittals.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 3



### 1.4 POLLUTANTS
The inventory includes emissions for directly emitted PM and PM-precursors (oxides of nitrogen {NO x 

### }, and sulfur dioxide {SO 2 

### }). The PM species in the inventory are categorized as particles with an aerodynamic diameter less th an or equal to a nominal 2.5 micrometers (PM25-PRI), which includes bot h condensable particles (PM-CON) and filterable particles (PM25-FIL).

1.5 DATA FORMATS
For each sector, we prepared easy-to-review spreadsheets that provide 2007 emissions and 2025 growth factors, control factors, and emi ssions. We also prep ared county level and nonattainment area summaries for all PM nonattainment counties and areas. The summaries show the 2007 and 2025 emissions, along with the percent ch ange in emissions from 2007 to 2025 for each source sector.

1.6 INVENTORY VERSIONS
The development of base and future year invent ories is an iterative process that continually attempts to use the best data available to m eet air quality planning needs, given time and resource constraints. The following subsect ions summarize the work completed to date.

1.6.1 Version 2 Modeling Inventories with Existing Controls MARAMA developed comprehensive emission i nventories to support air quality modeling in the region. MARAMA developed a calendar year 2007 (MARAMA 2011a) inventory for all sectors except the onroad sector. These inventories, completed in February of 2011, are referred to as Version 2 of the M ANE-VU+VA 2007 base year inventory. The inventories were provided in formats required for air quality modeli ng. Under a separate effort, the Northeast States for Coordinate d Air Use Management (NESCAUM) developed a 2007 onroad inventory using the MOVES model to suppor t air quality modeling.
MARAMA also prepared emission proj ections for 2013/2017/2020 (MARAMA 2011b) for all sectors except the electric generation and onroad sect ors. These projections reflect a scenario representing the best estimates for the future year, accoun ting for all in-place controls that are fully adopted into federal orindividual state regulati ons or SIPs. In the past, this inventory is also referred to as the "on-the-books " inventory. Modelers often refer to this scenario as the "future base case".

1.6.2 Version 3 Modeling Inventories with Existing Controls Beginning in the fall of 2011, MARAMA sponsor ed development of Version 3_3 of the 2007 base year modeling inventory to incor porate new paved road emission estimates,Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 4


### revised modeling of nonroad and onroad s ources, and other state-specific changes (MARAMA2012a). MARAMA developed Versi on 3_3 of the future year inventory to account for changes to the 2007 base year inve ntory and selected changes in growth and control factors identified by states (MARAMA2012b). The future year modeling inventories for electric generating units (EGUs) are currently being developed under a separate effort lead by the Eastern Regiona l Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC). The future year modeling inventories for onr oad sources are curren tly being developed by NESCAUM, MARAMA or individual states.

1.6.3 Version 3 2025 Inventory for PM Nonattainment Counties The 2025 inventory for PM nonattainment count ies was developed using Version 3_3 of the modeling inventory, with the following exceptions:

 Growth and control factors for 2025 were developed for the area, nonEGU point, and nonroad MAR sectors, using the same methodologies and data sources that were used to develop the 2017/2020 inve ntories with exis ting controls.

 For nonroad sources included in NMIM, Ve rsion 2 results were available for 2007, 2017, and 2020. MARAMA and New York made additional NMIM runs for 2025 based on Version 2 inputs. MARAMA made revisions to some of the inputs to NMIM for Version 3_3 of the modeling in ventory; however, these revised NMIM runs were not used in the 2025 PM nona ttainment county inventory due to time constraints.

 For onroad sources included in the MOVE S model, MARAMA and states executed the model in the inventory mode for 2007 and 2025. Version 3_3 of the modeling inventory used results of the MOVES m odel executed in a manner to support air quality modeling.

 For EGU point sources, the results of the ERTAC EGU projection methodology are not currently available. An alternat ive methodology for projecting EGU emissions based on growth and control factors wa s used, as described in Section 4.

 Only counties classified as nonattai nment for the PM2.5 annual or 24-hour NAAQS were included.

Exhibit 1-1 shows the data sources used for the 2025 PM nonattainment area inventory. Exhibit 1-2 lists the countie s included in the 2025 PM nona ttainment area inventory.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 5



### 1.7 REPORT ORGANIZATION

Sections 2 to 6 describe the emission projection process fo r the following source sectors: area sources; point sources; nonroad mobile sources included in the NMIM model; other nonroad mobile sources (marine vessels, airc raft, and railroad locomotives); and onroad mobile sources included in the MOVES mode l. Section 7 provides nonattainment area emission pollutant summaries. Section 8 provide s a description of the final deliverables, including the file names for all final deliver able products. References for the TSD are provided in Section 9.

Exhibit 1.1 – Comparison of Data Used for Version 3 of the Modeling Inventory and the 2025 PM Nonattainment Inventory

Sector Modeling Inventory 2025 PM Nonattainment Inventory
2007 2017/2020 2007 2025 Area Version 3_3 Version 3_3 Version 3_3 Version 3_3 Nonroad-NMIM Version 3_3 Version 3_3 Version 2 2025 NMIM run based on Version 2 inputs (1) Nonroad-MAR Version 3_3 Version 3_3 Version 3_3 Version 3_3 Onroad MOVES runs by NESCAUM to

support AQ

modeling MOVES runs by NESCAUM to

support AQ

modeling MOVES runs by MARAMA or

states in inventory mode MOVES runs by MARAMA or

states in inventory mode Point-EGU Version 3_3 To be developed by ERTAC Version 3_3 See section 4 for projection methodology Point-nonEGU Version 3_3 Version 3_3 Version 3_3 Version 3_3 

### (1) Except CT and VA where Version 3 inputs were used.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 6



### Exhibit 1.2 – List of PM Nonattainment Areas and Counties

Nonattainment Area State FIPS Code County PM Nonattainment? 2006 Daily NAAQS 1997 Annual NAAQS Allentown, PA PA 42077 Lehigh Yes Yes PA 42095 Northampton Yes Yes Baltimore, MD MD 24003 Anne Arundel No Yes MD 24005 Baltimore No Yes MD 24013 Carroll No Yes MD 24025 Harford No Yes MD 24027 Howard No Yes MD 24510 Baltimore City No Yes Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV MD 24043 Washington No Yes Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle-York, PA PA 42041 Cumberland Yes Yes PA 42043 Dauphin Yes Yes PA 42075 Lebanon Yes Yes PA 42133 York* Yes No Johnstown, PA PA 42021 Cambria Yes Yes PA 42063 Indiana(P) Yes Yes Lancaster, PA PA 42071 Lancaster Yes Yes New York-N. New Jersey-Long Island, CT 09001 Fairfield Yes Yes NY-NJ-CT CT 09009 New Haven Yes Yes NJ 34003 Bergen Yes Yes NJ 34013 Essex Yes Yes NJ 34017 Hudson Yes Yes NJ 34021 Mercer Yes Yes NJ 34023 Middlesex Yes Yes NJ 34025 Monmouth Yes Yes NJ 34027 Morris Yes Yes NJ 34031 Passaic Yes Yes NJ 34035 Somerset Yes Yes NJ 34039 Union Yes Yes NY 36005 Bronx Yes Yes NY 36047 Kings Yes Yes NY 36059 Nassau Yes Yes NY 36061 New York Yes Yes NY 36071 Orange Yes Yes NY 36081 Queens Yes Yes NY 36085 Richmond Yes Yes NY 36087 Rockland Yes Yes NY 36103 Suffolk Yes Yes NY 36119 Westchester Yes Yes Philadelphia-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE DE 10003 New Castle Yes Yes NJ 34005 Burlington Yes Yes NJ 34007 Camden Yes Yes NJ 34015 Gloucester Yes Yes PA 42017 Bucks Yes YesDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 7

Nonattainment Area State FIPS Code County PM Nonattainment? 2006 Daily NAAQS 1997 Annual NAAQS PA 42029 Chester Yes Yes PA 42045 Delaware Yes Yes PA 42091 Montgomery Yes Yes PA 42101 Philadelphia Yes Yes Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley, PA PA 42003 Allegheny(P) Yes Yes PA 42005 Armstrong(P) Yes Yes PA 42007 Beaver Yes Yes PA 42019 Butler Yes Yes PA 42059 Greene(P) Yes Yes PA 42073 Lawrence(P)* Yes Yes PA 42125 Washington Yes Yes PA 42129 Westmoreland Yes Yes Reading, PA PA 42011 Berks No Yes Washington, DC-MD-VA DC 11001 Washington No Yes MD 24017 Charles No Yes MD 24021 Frederick No Yes MD 24031 Montgomery No Yes MD 24033 Prince George No Yes VA 51013 Arlington No Yes VA 51059 Fairfax No Yes VA 51107 Loudoun No Yes VA 51153 Prince William No Yes VA 51510 Alexandria No Yes VA 51600 Fairfax City No Yes VA 51610 Falls Church No Yes VA 51683 Manassas City No Yes
VA 51685 Manassas Park No Yes York, PA PA 42133 York* No Yes* York County, PA, is in one nonattainment area for the 2006 24-hour standard (HarrisburgLebanon-Carlisle-York, PA) and another for the 1997 annual standard (York, PA).
(P) indicates that only part of the county is in the nonattainment area; for this inventory, emissions for the entire county are included.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 8



## 2.0 AREA SOURCES

2.1 AREA SOURCE CATEGORIES

The area source sector contains emissions esti mates for sources which individually are too small in magnitude or too numerous to inve ntory as individual point sources, and which can often be estimated more accurately as a single aggregate source for a county. Examples are emissions from home heati ng systems, house painting, consumer products usage, and small industrial/commercial operations that are not permitted as point sources. There are 356 individual area source cat egories in the MANE-VU+VA inventory, categorized by a 10-digit SCC.

2.2 2007 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT
The emission projections for the 2025 area sour ce inventory were ba sed on Version 3_3 of the 2007 MANE-VU+VA inventory and are fully documented in the TSD for that effort (MARAMA 2012a). The only adjustment to the 2007 Version 3_3 area source inventory was to apply “transport factors” to fugitive dust sources, as described in the following subsection.

2.2.1 Adjustments to the 2007 Inventor y Used for the 2025 Projections Grid air quality models consistently overestimate fugitive dust impacts as compared to ambient samples. USEPA developed a met hodology to reduce fugitive dust emissions for use in grid modeling analyses. It is considered a logical st ep to improve the ability to account for the removal of particles near th eir emission source by vegetation and surface features and can be useful in grid-based modeling analyses.
In February 2011, MARAMA developed 2007 em ission modeling files for area sources which applied the USEPA “transport factor” to reduce fugitive dust emissions to account for the removal of particles near their emi ssion source by vegetation and surface features. The standard transport fractions and SCC assignments from USEPA’s CHIEF website (USEPA 2007a) were used to reduce the PM25- PRI emissions in this inventory. Two files were used. Exhibit 2.1 shows the list of nonE GU SCCs for which the transport factor was applied. The major source categories includ ed paved and unpaved roads, construction activity, agricultural crop land tilling, and agricultural liv estock operations. Exhibit 2.2 lists the transport fractions for PM nonattainment counties which vary by county. For example, the transport factors ranges from 0.1375 in Camden, New Jersey to 0.80 in Suffolk County, New York. For Virginia, no transport fraction was provided for the City of Fairfax; Fairfax County’s transport fr action was used for this jurisdiction.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 9


### Exhibit 2.1 Area Source SCCs Affected by PM Transport Fraction

SCC SCC Description 2294000000 Paved Roads: All Paved Roads: Total: Fugitives 2296000000 Unpaved Roads: All Unpaved Roads: Total: Fugitives 2311000000 Construction: All Processes: Total 2311010000 Construction: General Building Construction: Total 2311020000 Construction: Heavy Construction: Total 2311030000 Construction: Road Construction: Total 2801000000 Miscellaneous Area Sources;Agriculture Production - Crops;Agriculture - Crops;Total 2801000001 Ag crops: Agriculture - Crops: Land Breaking 2801000002 Ag crops: Agriculture - Crops: Planting 2801000003 Ag crops: Agriculture - Crops: Tilling 2801000004 Ag crops: Agriculture - Crops: Defoliation 2801000005 Ag crops: Agriculture - Crops: Harvesting 2801000006 Ag crops: Agriculture - Crops: Drying 2801000007 Ag crops: Agriculture - Crops: Loading 2801000008 Ag crops: Agriculture - Crops: Transport 2805000000 Ag livestock: Agriculture - Livestock: Total 2805001000 Ag livestock: Beef Cattle Feedlots: Total (also see 2805020000) 2805001001 Ag livestock: Beef Cattle Feedlots: Feed Preparation 2805005000 Ag livestock: Poultry Operations: Total 2805010000 Ag livestock: Dairy Operations: Total 2805015000 Ag livestock: Hog Operations: Total 2805020000 Ag livestock: Cattle and Calves Composite: Total 2805025000 Ag livestock: Hogs and Pigs Composite: Total 2805030000 Ag livestock: Poultry and Chickens Composite: Total 2805035000 Ag livestock: Horses and Ponies Composite: Total 2805040000 Ag livestock: Sheep and Lambs Composite: Total 2805045001 Ag livestock: Goats: TotalDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 10


### Exhibit 2.2 PM Transport Fraction s for PM Nonattainment Counties

State FIPS County PM Transport Fraction CT 09001 FAIRFIELD 0.4347 CT 09009 NEW HAVEN 0.4442 DE 10003 NEW CASTLE 0.5087 DC 11001 WASHINGTON 0.3953 MD 24003 ANNE ARUNDEL 0.4874 MD 24005 BALTIMORE 0.4047 MD 24013 CARROLL 0.5641 MD 24017 CHARLES 0.4879 MD 24021 FREDERICK 0.4904 MD 24025 HARFORD 0.5147 MD 24027 HOWARD 0.2798 MD 24031 MONTGOMERY 0.3089 MD 24033 PRINCE GEORGES 0.2950 MD 24043 WASHINGTON 0.4003 MD 24510 BALTIMORE (CITY) 0.4874 NJ 34003 BERGEN 0.2657 NJ 34005 BURLINGTON 0.3008 NJ 34007 CAMDEN 0.1375 NJ 34013 ESSEX 0.3461 NJ 34015 GLOUCESTER 0.4361 NJ 34017 HUDSON 0.5286 NJ 34021 MERCER 0.3472 NJ 34023 MIDDLESEX 0.3273 NJ 34025 MONMOUTH 0.5468 NJ 34027 MORRIS 0.2297 NJ 34031 PASSAIC 0.1971 NJ 34035 SOMERSET 0.3635 NJ 34039 UNION 0.3117 NY 36005 BRONX 0.6145 NY 36059 NASSAU 0.6595 NY 36061 NEW YORK 0.6483 NY 36071 ORANGE 0.3803 NY 36081 QUEENS 0.6505 NY 36085 RICHMOND 0.7159 NY 36087 ROCKLAND 0.3556 NY 36103 SUFFOLK 0.7997 NY 36119 WESTCHESTER 0.3531 PA 42003 ALLEGHENY 0.2308 PA 42005 ARMSTRONG 0.3289 PA 42007 BEAVER 0.3141Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 11

State FIPS County PM Transport Fraction PA 42011 BERKS 0.4682 PA 42017 BUCKS 0.3980 PA 42019 BUTLER 0.3621 PA 42021 CAMBRIA 0.2253 PA 42029 CHESTER 0.4757 PA 42041 CUMBERLAND 0.4649 PA 42043 DAUPHIN 0.3438 PA 42045 DELAWARE 0.3515 PA 42059 GREENE 0.3224 PA 42063 INDIANA 0.2884 PA 42071 LANCASTER 0.6183 PA 42073 LAWRENCE 0.4422 PA 42075 LEBANON 0.4521 PA 42077 LEHIGH 0.4487 PA 42091 MONTGOMERY 0.3729 PA 42095 NORTHAMPTON 0.4306 PA 42101 PHILADELPHIA 0.3471 PA 42125 WASHINGTON 0.3436 PA 42129 WESTMORELAND 0.2875 PA 42133 YORK 0.5134 VA 51013 ARLINGTON 0.3534 VA 51059 FAIRFAX 0.2457 VA 51107 LOUDOUN 0.3345 VA 51153 PRINCE WILLIAM 0.1814 VA 51510 ALEXANDRIA 0.3745 VA 51610 FALLS CHURCH 0.3400 VA 51683 MANASSAS 0.3474 VA 51685 MANASSAS PARK 0.3551Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 12


### Exhibit 2.3 – Comparison of 2007 Paved Road Dust PM10 Emission Estimates

Nonattainment Area Without Transport Factor With Transport Factor

Version2 Version 3 New Method Version2 Version 3 New Method Allentown 4,228 1,733 1,859 764 Baltimore 15,175 5,412 6,658 2,400 Hagerstown 1,490 263 596 105 Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle -York 9,133 4,124 4,149 1,855 Johnstown 2,663 1,133 673 289 Lancaster 4,339 1,808 2,683 1,118 New York-Northern NJ-Long Is land-CT 58,512 28,747 29,128 14,260 Philadelphia-Wilmington 29,379 12,644 11,070 4,801 Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley 14,470 6,173 4,491 1,920 Reading 3,346 1,423 1,567 666 Washington, DC-MD-VA 21,067 9,909 6,846 3,194 York 3,684 1,458 1,891 749



### Exhibit 2.4 – Comparison of 2007 Paved Road Dust PM2.5 Emission Estimates

Nonattainment Area Without Transport Factor With Transport Factor

Version2 Version 3 New Method Version2 Version 3 New Method Allentown 264 433 116 191 Baltimore 1,770 1,328 782 589 Hagerstown 196 64 78 26 Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle-York 605 1,031 277 464 Johnstown 198 283 50 72 Lancaster 295 452 182 280 New York-Northern NJ-Long Is land-CT 2,400 7,173 1,252 3,547 Philadelphia-Wilmington 1,396 3,165 547 1,202 Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley 942 1,543 299 480 Reading 209 356 98 167 Washington, DC-MD-VA 1,713 2,432 594 784 York 257 365 132 187Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 13



### 2.3 2025 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT
The general procedures and data used for projecting emissions for the area source sector are summarized in this section. Growth factors were applied to the MANE-VU+VA 2007 inventory to account for changes in fuel use, population, economic ac tivity. Next, control factors were applied to account for future em ission reductions from c ontrol regulations. The 2025 inventory accounts for post-2007 emission reductions from promulgated federal, State, local, and site-specifi c control programs and proposed control programs that are reasonably anticipated to result in post-2007 emission reductions.

2.3.1 Area Source Growth Factors The area and nonEGU point source gr owth factors were develope d using six sets of data:

 The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) fu el consumption forecasts;

 County-level popula tion projections;

 State-level employment pr ojections by NAICS code;

 County-level vehicle miles tr avelled (VMT) projections;

 USEPA projections for livestock and residential wood combustion; and

 Other state-specific em ission projection data. The priority for applying these growth factor s was to first use the state-supplied projection data (if available). If st ate-supplied data were not pr ovided, then the AEO projection factors were used for fuel consumption sour ces, and the population/employment/VMT data were used for other source categories.

2.3.1.1 

### AEO Fuel Use Projection The AEO is published annually by the U.S. Ener gy Information Administration (EIA). It presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2035, based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modelin g System (NEMS). NEMS projects the production, imports, conversion, consumpti on, and prices of energy, subject to assumptions on macroeconomic and financial factors, world energy markets, resource availability and costs, behavi oral and technological choice cr iteria, energy technology cost and performance characteristics, and demographics.
AEO provides regional fuel-use forecasts for various fuel types (e.g., coal, residual oil, distillate oil, natural gas) by end use sector (e.g., resident ial, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric pow er). Energy use projections are reported at the Census division level. The census divisi ons grouped states as follows:

 South Atlantic - DE, DC, MD, VA

 Middle Atlantic – NJ, NY, PA

 New England – CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VTDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 14


### Appendices A1, A2, and A3 contain the AEO 2010 fuel use projections for each of these three regions. Appendices A4, A5, and A6 contain the AEO2011 fuel use projections
Version 2 of the MANE-VU+VA future year inventories was developed using AEO2010 (EIA2010). After the rel ease of Version 2, AEO2011 was published (EIA2011a). MARAMA reviewed the updated fuel fo recasts and compared the AEO2010 and AEO2011 projections. Appendix A7 docum ents MARAMA’s analysis. MARAMA calculated the difference in projected fuel usage between AEO2010 and AEO2011 for the residential, commercial, indus trial, transportation, and elec tric power sector for the distillate fuel oil, residual fu el oil, coal, natural gas, and renewable fuel types. MARAMA identified thresholds for what cons titutes a major change as follows:

 An increase or decrease of 1% or less is considered to be no change and did not warrant a change in the grow th factors between Versions 2 and 3 of the inventory;

 An increase or decrease of between 1% and 5% is considered to be a minor change, and states agreed that these differenc es between AEO2010 and AEO2011 did not warrant a change in the grow th factors between Versions 2 and 3 of the inventory;

 An increase or decrease above 5% is considered a major change, and warrants a change in the growth fact ors used in Version 3. MARAMA recommended that the AEO2010 projec tions be retained for all residential, commercial, and industrial sector fuel use, ex cept for industrial natural gas usage, where the AEO2011 projections will be used for Versio n 3 of the future year modeling inventory. New Jersey elected to use the more recent gr owth factors from AEO2011 instead of the AEO2010 growth factors for all area s ource fossil fuel use categories.
Exhibits 2.5 to 2.9 summarize the projected fu el use rates by source sector (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation) a nd AEO geographic area for the years 2007 to 2025. The unusual growth in commercial resi dual oil use in the South Atlantic region could not be explained; Mary land elected to use employme nt instead of the AEO2010 growth factor for commercial residual oil combustion, while Virginia and the District chose to assume flat grow th in this sector.

2.3.1.2 

### Population Projections States provided county-level hist oric population data and projecti ons for future years. The historical and projection years va ried from state to state, so values were interpolated, when necessary, to create population estimates for each year from 2007 to 2025. The population data were then normalized to create growth f actors from 2007 for each year future year.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 15


### For example, Delaware had a population of 861,087 in 2007, and the projected population in 2017 is 953,204. Thus, the growth f actor for 2017 is 953,204 / 861,087 = 1.107.
Exhibit 2.10 summarizes the population grow th factors by state and AEO2010 region. Population is projected to grow in ev ery state between 2007 and 2025. The population growth in the New England states varies signi ficantly by state. Population growth in the South Atlantic states is projected to be mu ch higher than in th e New England and MidAtlantic states. Appendix B contains the da ta use to develop the population projections.

2.3.1.3 

### Employment Projections Every two years, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics produces long-term industry and occupation forecasts for ten future years, a nd states are asked to do the same for their respective economies. The most recent projec tions are from state Departments of Labor for the period 2006 to 2016, most of whic h were published in 2008. These 10-year forecasts are updated every other year. The next set of state-specific projections will be for the period 2008 to 2018. Only the District of Co lumbia and Delaware were able to provide employment projections for 2008 to 2017; the 2008 to 2018 projections were not available for other states in time for use on this projec t. The employment projections are state-wide by 3-digit NAICS code. Exhibit 2.11 summa rizes the manufacturing employment (NAICS sector 310) growth factors by state and AEO 2010 region. States in the Northeast / MidAtlantic region show a marked decrease in manufacturing employment from 2007 forward. Appendix C contains the data that were used to develop the employ ment projections.

2.3.1.4 

### VMT Projections States developed projections of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for 2007 and 2025 which were used as the growth fact or for projecting emissions from re-entrained road dust from travel on paved roads (SCC 22-94-000-000). The 2007 and 2025 VMT are identical to those used in the MOVES modeling discussed in Section 8. Exhibit 2.12 shows the county level VMT for 2007 and 2025, and the growth factor for projecting 2007 emissions to 2025. Growth factors for 2013, 2017, and 2020 were based on a linear interpolation of the 2007 and 2025 VMT. Appendix D contains addi tional information on the data used to develop the VMT growth factors.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 16



### Exhibit 2.5 AEO2010 Growth Factors for Coal by AEO Region 2007 – 2025Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 17



### Exhibit 2.6 Growth Factors for Residual Oil by AEO Region 2007 – 2025Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 18



### Exhibit 2.7 AEO2010 Growth Factors for Distillate Oil by AEO Region 2007 – 2025Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 19



### Exhibit 2.8 Growth Factors for Natural Gas by AEO Region 2007 – 2025 AEO2010 for Residential/Commercial, AEO2011 for IndustrialDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 20



### Exhibit 2.9 AEO2010 Growth Factors for Gasoline by AEO Region 2007 – 2025Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 21



### Exhibit 2.10 Population Growth Factors by AEO Region 2007 – 2025Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 22



### Exhibit 2.11 Manufacturing Employment Growth Factors by Region 2007 - 2025Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 23



### Exhibit 2.12 2007 and 2025 VMT and the 2007-2025 Growth Factor

Million VMT Growth Nonattainment Area County FIPS 2007 2025 2007-2005 Allentown Lehigh 42077 2,947 3,700 1.256 Allentown Northampton 42095 2,020 2,629 1.301 Baltimore Anne Arundel 24003 5,786 7,907 1.367 Baltimore Baltimore 24005 8,261 10,330 1.251 Baltimore Carroll 24013 1,296 1,766 1.363 Baltimore Harford 24025 2,362 3,060 1.296 Baltimore Howard 24027 3,815 6,059 1.588 Baltimore Baltimore City 24510 3,626 4,150 1.145 Hagerstown Washington 24043 2,090 2,940 1.407 Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle-York Cumberland 42041 2,861 3,704 1.295 Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle-York Dauphin 42043 3,072 3,689 1.201 Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle-York Lebanon 42075 1,209 1,507 1.247 Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle-Yor k York 42133 3,304 4,209 1.274 Johnstown Cambria 42021 1,157 1,110 0.959 Johnstown Indiana 42063 844 928 1.100 Lancaster Lancaster 420 71 4,255 5,395 1.268 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Fairfield 9001 7,560 8,568 1.133 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT New Haven 9009 6,856 8,085 1.179 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Bergen 34003 7,879 10,464 1.328 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Essex 34013 4,895 6,131 1.253 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Hudson 34017 2,313 2,801 1.211 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Mercer 34021 3,566 3,996 1.121 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Middlesex 34023 7,810 9,748 1.248 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Monmouth 34025 6,319 8,595 1.360 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Morris 34027 5,530 6,523 1.180 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Passaic 34031 2,918 3,490 1.196 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Somerset 34035 3,230 3,667 1.135 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Union 34039 4,623 5,730 1.239 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Bronx 36005 3,677 4,830 1.314 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Kings 36047 5,461 6,272 1.148 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Na ssau 36059 11,780 14,705 1.248 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT New York 36061 3,938 5,203 1.321 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Orange 36071 4,431 5,906 1.333 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Queens 36081 8,859 10,949 1.236 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Richmond 36085 2,152 3,354 1.558 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Rockland 36087 2,675 4,060 1.517 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Suffolk 36103 13,767 20,514 1.485 New York Metro NY/NJ/CT Westchester 36119 8,201 11,811 1.490 Philadelphia PA/DE/NJ New Castle 10003 5,544 6,959 1.255 Philadelphia PA/DE/NJ Burlington 34005 4,704 5,062 1.076Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 24

Million VMT Growth Nonattainment Area County FIPS 2007 2025 2007-2005 Philadelphia PA/DE/NJ Camden 34007 4,090 4,267 1.043 Philadelphia PA/DE/NJ Gloucester 34015 2,723 3,284 1.206 Philadelphia PA/DE/NJ Bucks 42017 5,047 6,516 1.291 Philadelphia PA/DE/NJ Chester 42029 4,423 6,201 1.402 Philadelphia PA/DE/NJ Delaware 42045 3,766 4,371 1.161 Philadelphia PA/DE/NJ Montgomery 42091 7,075 8,220 1.162 Philadelphia PA/DE/NJ Philadelphia 42101 5,973 6,337 1.061 Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley Allegheny 42003 9,345 10,134 1.084 Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley Armstrong 42005 628 672 1.071 Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley Beaver 42007 1,487 1,585 1.066 Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley Butler 42019 1,762 2,173 1.233 Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley Greene 42059 464 504 1.086 Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley Lawrence 42073 812 880 1.084 Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley Washington 42125 2,245 2,531 1.127 Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley Westmoreland 42129 3,512 3,898 1.110 Reading Berks 42011 3,341 4,079 1.221 Washington DC/MD/VA DC 11001 3,666 3,861 1.053 Washington DC/MD/VA Charles 24017 1,284 1,825 1.421 Washington DC/MD/VA Frederick 24021 3,009 4,442 1.476 Washington DC/MD/VA Montgomery 24031 7,471 9,711 1.300 Washington DC/MD/VA Prince George's 24033 8,754 11,616 1.327 Washington DC/MD/VA Arlington 51013 1,663 1,917 1.153 Washington DC/MD/VA Fairfax 51059 10,123 13,880 1.371 Washington DC/MD/VA Loudoun 51107 2,403 3,741 1.557 Washington DC/MD/VA Prince William 51153 3,202 4,643 1.450 Washington DC/MD/VA Alexandria 51510 736 866 1.177 Washington DC/MD/VA Fairfax 51600 193 220 1.143 Washington DC/MD/VA Falls Church 51610 64 76 1.186 Washington DC/MD/VA Manassas 51683 273 360 1.317 Washington DC/MD/VA Manassas Park 51685 26 30 1.166Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 25

2.3.1.5 

### No Growth Assignment for C ertain Area Source Categories For several area source categories, it seems reasonable that emissions would not change from the 2007 values. No growth was applie d to the 2007 emissions for the area source categories shown in Exhibit 2.13.
Exhibit 2.13 Area Source Categories with No Growth Assignment

SCC SCC Description 2296000000 Unpaved Roads /All Unpaved Roads /Total: Fugitives 2401008000 Surface Coating /Traffic Ma rkings /Total: All Solvent Types 2461020000 Misc Non-industrial: Commercial /Aspha lt Application: All Processes /Total: All 2461021000 Misc Non-industrial: Commercial /C utback Asphalt /Total: All Solvent Types 2461022000 Misc Non-industrial: Commercial /Emu lsified Asphalt /Total: All Solvent Types 2461023000 Misc Non-industrial: Commercial /A sphalt Roofing /Total: All Solvent Types 2601000000 On-site Incineration /All Categories /Total 2601010000 On-site Incineration /Industrial /Total 2601010000 On-site Incineration /Industrial /Total 2601020000 On-site Incineration /Commercial/Institutional /Total 2601020000 On-site Incineration /Commercial/Institutional /Total 2601030000 On-site Incineration /Residential /Total 2610000100 Open Burning /All Categories /Yar d Waste - Leaf Species Unspecified 2610000400 Open Burning /All Categories /Yard Waste - Brush Species Unspecified 2610000500 Open Burning /All Categories /Land Clearing Debris (use 28-10-005-000 for Logging 2610030000 Open Burnin g /Residential /Household Waste (use 26-10-000-xxx for Yard Wastes) 2610040400 Open Burning /Municipal (from residences, parks, other for central burn) 2660000000 Leaking Underground Storage Tanks /Leak ing Underground Storage Tanks /Total: All 2680001000 Composting /100% Biosolids (e.g., sew age sludge, manure, mixtures of these matls 2680002000 Composting /Mixed Waste (e.g., a 50: 50 mixture of biosolids and green wastes) 2806010000 Domestic Animals Waste Emissions /Cats /Total 2806015000 Domestic Animals Waste Emissions /Dogs /Total 2807020001 Wild Animals Waste Emissions /Bears /Black Bears 2807020002 Wild Animals Waste Emissions /Bears /Grizzly Bears 2807025000 Wild Animals Waste Emissions /Elk /Total 2807030000 Wild Animals Waste Emissions /Deer /Total 2807040000 Wild Animals Waste Emissions /Birds /Total 2810001000 Forest Wildfires - Wildfires – Unspecified 2810003000 Cigarette Smoke /Total 2810005000 Managed Burning, Slash (Logging Debris) /Unspecified Burn Method 2810010000 Human Perspiration and Respiration /Total 2810014000 Prescribed Burning /Generic - Unspec ified land cover, ownership, class/purposeDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 26

SCC SCC Description 2810015000 Prescribed Forest Burning /Unspecified 2810020000 Prescribed Rangeland Burning /Unspecified 2810030000 Structure Fires /Unspecified 2810035000 Firefighting Training /Total 2810050000 Motor Vehicle Fires /Unspecified 2810060200 Cremation /Animals 2810090000 Open Fire /Not categorized 2820010000 Cooling Towers /Process Cooling Towers /Total 2830000000 Catastrophic/Accidental Releases /A ll Catastrophic/Accidental Releases /Total 2830010000 Catastrophic/Accidental Releas es /Transportation Accidents /Total

2.3.1.6 

### USEPA 2020 Projections for Residential Wood USEPA made available its 2020 emissions proj ections associated with its 2005-based v4 modeling platform. MARAMA decided to us e USEPA emission projection parameters for residential wood combustion. USEPA’s met hodology and data sources are summarized below (USEPA 2010a).
USEPA projected residential wood combusti on emissions are based on the expected increase in the number of low-emitting wood stoves and the corresponding decrease in other types of wood stoves. As newer, clean er woodstoves replace older, more polluting stoves, there will be an overall reduction of emissions from this category. The approach used by USEPA was developed as part of a modeling exercise to estimate the expected benefits of the woodstove change-out pr ogram. This methodology uses a combination growth and control factors and is based on act ivity not pollutant. The growth and control are accounted for in a single factor for each residential wood SCC (cer tain SCCs represent controlled equipment, while other SCCs re present uncontrolled equipment). Control factors are indirectly incorpor ated based on which stove is used. The specific assumptions USEPA made were:

 Fireplaces, SCC=2104008001: increase 1%/year;

 Old woodstoves, SCC=2104008002, 2104008010, 2104008051: decrease 2%/year;

 New woodstoves, SCC=2104008003, 2104008004, 2104008030, 2104008050, 2104008052 or 2104008053: increase 2%/year. For the general woodstoves and firepl aces category (SCC 2104008000) USEPA computed a weighted average distribution based on 19.4% fireplaces, 71.6% old woodstoves, 9.1% new woodstoves using 2002 Platform emissions for PM2.5. These fractions are based on the fraction of emissions from these processes in the states that did not have the “generalDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 27


### woodstoves and fireplaces” SCC in the 2002 NEI. This approach results in an overall decrease of 1.056% per year for this source category. Appendi x E contains the residential wood projection data from USEPA.

2.3.1.7 

### SCC, SIC, NAICS and Grow th Parameter Crosswalk Since the employment projecti ons were based on 3-digit NAICS code, it was necessary to map NAICS codes to SCCs and SIC codes that were used by states. Employment projections at the more specific 4-digit or 6-digit NAICS codes we re not available.
The first step for developing a comprehensiv e crosswalk between the different source classification codes (SCC, SIC, and NAICS co des) and emission activity growth indicators was to compile a complete list of the NAICS codes in the 2007 point source inventory. Some states use the SIC code while other use the NAICS code. Still other states use both the SIC and NAICS codes. When the NAICS code was not available SIC codes were converted to NAICS codes. The 6-digit NAI CS code was truncated to a 3-digit code, which represents major industry subsectors of the economy. A U.S. Census Bureau document was used to perform this conversion (CENSUS 2000).
The next step was to review parameters that could be used as the emission activity growth indicator for each SCC or NAICS. We initially relied on two USEPA crosswalks (USEPA 2004a, USEPA 2004b) to match area and nonEGU point source SCCs to AEO2010 categories, employ ment NAICS codes, and population.

2.3.1.8 

### Final Version 2 Growth Factors for Area Sources The previous sections described the initial growth factors recommended to develop projected future year emissions inventories for area and non-EGU sources. Draft growth and control factors, and a draft technical s upport document, were circulated for review by MARAMA and state agencies. During the re view, it was noted that several emissions categories show negative growth into the future, particularly categories related to fossil fuel combustion and manufacturing employment.
Many of the growth factors used to projec t emissions for area and non-EGU sources were based on the AEO2010 fuel consumption forecast s and state-level employment projections. The AEO2010 forecasts show declining tre nds for many fuel consumption sectors, especially industrial, residential, and commerc ial distillate fuel oil use. Similarly, the employment projections show declines in the predicted number of employees for many sectors of the economy. This is particularly tr ue for the manufacturi ng sector, which is of interest because this sector is often associat ed with higher emissions than those for other sectors. By contrast, the employment proj ections show increasing trends in retail andDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 28



### service-related sectors. However, these sector s are not typically associated with significant emissions.
Predicted declines in fuel use and employmen t resulted in growth factors less than unity (i.e., represent negative growth) for many area and non-EGU point source categories. Consequently, for some categorie s, emissions were initially projected to be lower for the projected future years than for the base y ear, even before the a pplication of control assumptions (i.e., the future "growth only" emissions are lower than the base year emissions). A conference call was held to di scuss the negative growth issue, and states were polled as to whether or not they felt that the current se t of proposed growth factors - including the negative growth factors - were realistic for their state. In reply, some representatives mentioned that th ey have observed historic stat e-specific data that supports the trends displayed by the proposed growth fact ors. Other representatives mentioned that they feel comfortable with th e growth factors and don't have a technical basis to change them or suggest others. Some states will supply their own factors or make their own assumptions.
As a result of these discussions, each stat e provided guidance on how to handle projections when negative growth is indicated. Exhib it 2.14 shows the state recommendations for area

sources.

2.3.1.9 

### Version 3 Update to New Jersey Growth Factors for Area Sources New Jersey provided updated gr owth factors for area source for use in developing the 2025 inventory for PM nonattainment counties. One of the key revisions was to use the more recent data from AEO2011 for energy consum ption instead of the AEO2010 projections. New Jersey also provided updated employment, paved roa d, pesticide an d agricultural livestock growth factors.

2.3.1.10 

### Version 3 Update to Growth Factors for the District of Columbia

The District of Columbia provided updated employment growth factors based on DC Department of Labor forecasts for the period 2008 to 2018.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 29


### Exhibit 2-14 State Recommendations to Address Negative Growth and Other Growth Factors fo r the Area Source Sector

State AEO2010 Growth Factors Employment Growth Factors Population Growth Factors CT Use AEO2010 growth rates Use state DOL employment projections by 3-digit NAICS Use county-level population projections DE Use AEO2010 growth rates; no growth for suspect AEO2010 projection for commercial / institutional residual oil For 2013, use state DOL employment projections by 3-digit NAICS; For 2017 and 2020, use no growth (growth factor=1) when employment growth is negative; otherwise use employment if positive growth Use county-level population projections

DC Use AEO2010 growth rates; no growth for suspect AEO2010 projection for commercial / institutional residual oil Use DOL employment growth for NAICS 722 for food and kindred product SCC; otherwise use 2008-2018 data For dry cleaning, use employment growth for NAICS 812 instead of population MD Not using AEO2010; used employment for commercial & institutional fuel; used housing units for residential fuel Provided updated employment projections; changed cross-walk between NAICS code and SCC for selected source categories Provided updated population projections by county

NJ NJ submitted state specific growth factors. For fuel combustion categories only, used AEO2011 growth rates except for residual oil (use no growth) NJ submitted state specific growth factors. NJ submitted state specific growth factors and provided population projections by county

NY Use AEO2010 growth rates Use state DOL employment projections by 3-digit NAICS Use county-level population projections PA Use AEO2010 growth rates Use state DOL employment projections by 3-digit NAICS Use county-level population projections VA Use AEO2010 growth rates; no growth for suspect AEO2010 projection for commercial / institutional residual oil Use state DOL employment projections by 3-digit NAICS Use county-level population projectionsDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 30



### 2.3.2 Area Source Control Factors Control factors were developed to estimate post-2007 emission reductions resulting from on-the-books regulations and other emission re duction measures. Control factors were developed for the following nationa l, regional and state measures:

 Federal Rules Affecting Area Sources

 Federal MACT Rules

 OTC 2001 Model Rules

 OTC 2006 Model Rules

 MANE-VU Sulfur in Fuel Oil Limitations These control programs, includ ing their impact on PM2.5 and PM precursor emissions, are discussed in the following subsections.

2.3.2.1 

### Federal Rules Affecting Area Sources USEPA made available its 2020 emissions proj ections associated with its 2005-based v4 modeling platform (USEPA 2010a). USEPA account ed for control strategies for four area source categories, only one of which reduced emissions of PM2.5 or PM2.5 precursors. USEPA developed projection factors to account for the replacement of retired woodstoves that were installed before promulgation of the new source performance standard (NSPS). We used USEPA’s latest met hodology which uses a combinati on growth and control factor and is based on activity and not pollutant. Th e growth and control are accounted for in a single factor for specific SCCs that account for the turnover from pre-NSPS to post-NSPS woodstove.

2.3.2.2 

### Federal MACT Rules USEPA developed guidance for estimating VOC and NO x 

### emission changes from MACT Rules (USEPA 2007b). We reviewed the gui dance to identify area source controls associated with the federal maximum achieva ble control technology (MACT) standards for controlling hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). Although designed to reduce HAPs, many of the MACT standards also provide a reduction in criteria air pollutants. USEPA’s guidance document provides an estimate of th e percent reduction in VOC and NO x 

### from each standard, and the compliance date for the st andard. The information concerning MACT compliance periods provided was used to dete rmine whether the MACT standard provided post-2007 emission reductions. For example, if a compliance period of a MACT standard was 2007 or earlier, then we assumed that the emission reductions from the MACT standard should be reflected in the baseline y ear and not as an additi onal post-2007 credit.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 31


### Only one area source category was listed in USEPA’s guidance document - municipal solid waste landfills. As the compliance date for this standard was January 2004, no post2007 reductions were applied because the emi ssion reductions from the MACT standard should be reflected in the 2007 inventory and not as an additional post-2007 credit.
USEPA has or will soon develop MACT standard s for about 70 area source categories. We reviewed USEPA’s 2020 emissions projections described in the previous section and found that USEPA did not include emission re ductions from recent area source MACT standards. We conducted a review of USEP A’s air toxic website and found that USEPA determined that many area source MACT sta ndards would result in nationwide reductions in criteria air pollutants in addition to the reductions in HAP emissions. However, many States in the MANE-VU+VA region already ha ve emission standards for many categories that are as stringent as the Federal area source MACT standards. For example, many states in the MANE-VU+VA region already have requirements as stringent as the Gasoline Distribution MACT and GACT (g enerally achievable control technology) standards, and little additional VOC reductions would be realized in the region. Given the resources allocated to this project, it was beyond the scope to conduct an analysis of the area source MACT requirements and state-by-state emission regulations to determine whether there would be emission reductions resulting from the area source MACT standards.
The only exception to the above discussion of area source MACT standards pertains to the recently promulgated rules for reciprocating internal combustion engines (RICE). USEPA made available an estimate of the percent reduc tion in emissions attributable to the RICE MACT rule in 2012 and 2014 (USEPA 2010b). These reductions by SCC are shown in Exhibit 2-15. The USEPA 2014 estimates were used for the MANE-VU+VA 2017, 2020 and 2025 inventories.

2.3.2.3 

### OTC Model Rules for VOC Sources The Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) develope d model rules for its member states in 2002 for several area source VOC categories: consumer products, architectural and industrial maintenance (AIM) coatings, portable fuel containers (PFCs), mobile equipment repair and refinishing, and solvent cleani ng (OTC 2001). In 2006 the OTC introduced model rules for two additional area source categories (adhe sives/sealants and asphalt paving) and more stringent requirements for consumer products and portable fuel containers (OTC 2007). These rules resulted in reductions of VOC emissions. Because VOC emissions are generally not considered to be significant PM precursors, and these rules did not result in reductions in PM2.5 or precursor emissions, no further discussion of the OTC model rules for VOC sources is warranted.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 32



### Exhibit 2-15 USEPA Estimated Percent Reductions for RICE MACT Standard

SCC NOx PM2.5 SCC Description 2101004000 7.57 Electric Utility;Distillate Oil;Total: Boilers and IC Engines 2101004002 11.81 Electric Utility;Di stillate Oil;All IC Engine Types 2101006000 7.97 Electric Utility;Natural Gas;Total: Boilers and IC Engines 2101006002 9.87 Electric Utility;Na tural Gas;All IC Engine Types 2102004000 7.57 Industrial;Distillate Oil;Total: Boilers and IC Engines 2102006000 7.97 Industrial;Natural Gas;Total: Boilers and IC Engines 2102006002 9.87 Industrial;Natural Gas;All IC Engine Types

2103004000 7.57 Commercial/Institutional;Distillate Oil;Total: Boilers and IC Engines
2103006000 7.97 Commercial/Institutional;Natural Gas;Total: Boilers and IC Engines
2199004000 7.57 Area Source Fuel Comb ustion;Distillate Oil;Total: Boilers and IC Engines 2199004002 11.81 Area Source Fuel Combus tion;Distillate Oil;All IC Engine Types

2199006000 7.97 Area Source Fuel Combustion;Natural Gas;Total: Boilers and IC Engines 2310000000 12.53 Oil and Gas Production: All Processes;Total: All Processes 2310000220 12.53 Oil and Gas Explor ation/Production; Drill Rigs 2310000440 12.53 Oil and Gas Exploration/Pr oduction; Saltwater Disposal Engines 2310001000 12.53 Oil and Gas Production: SI C 13; On-shore;Total: All Processes 2310002000 12.53 Oil and Gas Production: SI C 13; Off-shore;Total: All Processes 2310020000 12.53 Oil and Gas Production: SI C 13;Natural Gas;Total: All Processes

2310020600 12.53 Oil and Gas Exploration and Production;Natural Gas;Compressor Engines

2310023000 12.53 Oil and Gas Exploration and Production;Natural Gas;Cbm Gas Well - Dewatering Pump Engines

2.3.2.4 

### OTC Model Rule for ICI Boilers The OTC recommended that member states pur sue state-specific rulemakings or other implementation methods to achieve NO x 

### emission reduction for industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) boilers ba sed on guidelines that varied by boiler size and fuel type. States were polled to determine whether they have adopted a rule that would achieve reductions equivalent to the 2006 OTC reco mmendations and whether the estimated reduction in NO x 

### emissions should be applied in 2013, 2017, and 2020.
All but one state, New Jersey, indicated that they have not adopted rules for area sources equivalent to the 2006 OTC reco mmendations. New Jersey sp ecified that the state has post-2007 ICI boiler rules that reduce NO x 

### emissions and provided the estimates of theDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 33



### reductions in NO x 

### emissions by SCC resulting from boile r tune-up requirements, as shown in Exhibit 2.16:

Exhibit 2.16 Area Source Emission Reductions from New Jersey ICI Boiler NO x 

### Rules

SCC SOURCE CATEGORY Percent Reductionfrom Tuneups 2007- 2013 Rule Effectivenes
s Rule Penetratio
n Overall Percent Reduction 2007-2013
2102004000 Industrial: Distillate 25% 80% 30% 6% 2102005000 Industrial: Residual 25% 80% 30% 6% 2102006000 Industrial: Nat Gas 25% 80% 30% 6% 2102007000 Industrial: LPG 25% 80% 30% 6% 2103004000 Comm/Inst: Distillate 25% 80% 30% 6% 2103005000 Comm/Inst: Residual 25% 80% 30% 6% 2103006000 Comm/Inst: Nat Gas 25% 80% 30% 6% 2103007000 Comm/Inst - LPG 25% 80% 30% 6%

2.3.2.5 

### MANE-VU Fuel Oil Sulfur Strategy MANE-VU developed a low sulfur fuel oil st rategy to help states develop Regional Haze SIPs (MANE_VU 2007). The sulfur in fuel oil recommendations are shown in Exhibit 2.17 and vary by state, type of fuel oil, and year of implementation.

Exhibit 2.17 MANE-VU Low Su lfur Fuel Oil Strategy

Inner Zone States (DE, NJ, NY, PA) Fuel Oil Type Sulfur Content 2012 Sulfur Content 2016 Distillate 500 ppm 15 ppm
#4 Residual 0.25 % 0.25 %
#6 Residual 0.3 to 0.5 % 0.3 to 0.5 % Outer Zone States (CT, DC, MD) Fuel Oil Type Sulfur Content 2014 Sulfur Content 2018 Distillate 500 ppm 15 ppm
#4 Residual n/a 0.25 to 0.5 %
#6 Residual n/a 0.5 %Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 34


### Each state was polled and asked to provide gu idance as to when, if at all, the MANE-VU strategy would be incorporated in to their state rules. States were also asked to provide the 2007 sulfur contents for each fuel type by count y in order to calculate the percent reduction in emissions for the future years. Three states (MD, NJ, NY) have adopted or are committed to adopting the strategy into their ru les. Four jurisdictions (CT, DC, DE, PA) indicated that not enough regul atory development progress has been made to include the reductions in future years with absolute certai nty. One state (VA) has no plans to adopt the low sulfur fuel oil strategy. The response from each jurisdiction is summarized below:

 Connecticut will not include the reductions from MANE-VU low sulfur fuel oil strategy at this time for official SIP i nventories used for the PM2.5 redesignation effort. Section 16a-21a of the Connectic ut General Statutes (as amended by PA 10- 74) conditions implementation of number tw o heating oil sulfur limitation (50 ppm beginning 7/1/2011 and 15 ppm beginning 7/1/2014) on similar implementation in NY, MA and RI. NY has taken action, but th e other states have not done so yet. CTDEP expects that 15ppm residential he ating oil will be in place in CT by the "MANE-VU Ask" 2018 target date. Howe ver, until the other states act, SIP emission inventories will not be approvable with the 15 ppm value. Therefore, at this time CT elects to retain the 2007 su lfur value through 2025. For residual oil, Section 22a-174-19a of the Regulations of CT State Agencies (RCSA) limits sources >=15MW and boilers >=250 mmBtu /hr to 0.5% and further limits any of those sources that are also T itle IV acid rain sources to 0.3%. For affected sources, these limits are consistent with the "M ANE-VU Ask", and shoul d be reflected in the actual emissions incorporated into the 2007 point source inventory. Other sources (including most area sources) not otherwise restricted by permit/order are limited to 1.0% by RCSA 22a-174-19. As both of these regulations have not changed after 2007, there are no new contro ls (i.e., post 2007 control factors are 1.0) for residual oil.

 The District of Columbia does not have a low sulfur rule in place yet. They do have a draft, and anticipate adopting a rule by 2014, but are inclined not to take credit for reductions at this point in time.

 Delaware’s low-sulfur fuel regulation devel opment is running behind schedule and will not be promulgated done in time to include in the re-designation requests/maintenance plans. Emission re ductions from MANE-VU low sulfur fuel oil strategy are not included in the 2025 inventory at this time.

 Maryland expects to revise COMAR 26.11.09.07 ( Sulfur Content Limitations for Fuel 

### ) by 2014 to adopt the limits in the MANE-VU low sulfur fuel oil strategy.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 35



###  New Jersey has revised N.J.A.C. 7:27-9.2 (Sulfu r content standard s) to adopt the 2016 sulfur content limits and schedule s hown in Exhibit 2.19. All of the PM nonattainment counties in New Jersey already meet the MANE-VU limits for residual oil.

 New York adopted a law that limits the sulfur content of No. 2 heating oil to no more than 15 parts per million starting in July 2012, down from the current range of 2,000 to 15,000 parts per million. New York expects to revise 6 NYCRR Subpart 225-1 (Fuel Composition and Use - Su lfur Limitations) to lower the sulfur content of distillate fuel o il for all stationary sources (including home heating) and stationary internal combustion engines. Nearly all of the PM nonattainment counties in New York already meet the M ANE-VU limits for residual oil. For the two counties (Orange and Suffolk), comp liance with the MANE-VU limits is expected by 2017.

 Pennsylvania low-sulfur fuel regulation deve lopment is running behind schedule and will not be promulgated done in ti me to include in the re-designation requests/maintenance plans. Emission re ductions from MANE-VU low sulfur fuel oil strategy are not included in the 2025 inventory at this time.

 Virginia will not include the emission reductions from low sulfur fuel oil, as it is not part of MANE-VU and has no plans to adopt the low sulfur fuel oil strategy.
The state responses regarding th e currently adopted sulfur c ontents for home heating oil, distillate oil, and residual oil are summari zed in Exhibits 2.18, 2.19 and 2.20, respectively. For the purposes of developing the 2025 inventor y that will be used for re-designations and maintenance plans, the sulfur contents and cont rol factors shown in the Exhibits were used on a county-by-county basis to account for th e emission reductions from the MANE-VU low sulfur fuel oil strategy. There are se parate columns in the detailed area source inventory spreadsheet that specify SO 2 

### control factors and emissions for each projection year for a “currently adopted” scenario that includes reductions for states (MD, NJ, NY) that have or are committed to having rules in place. No emission reductions are applied for the other states (CT, DC, DE, PA, VA) in the “currently adopted” scenario.
For other air quality planning purposes, we accounted separately for emission reductions that would occur assuming all states fully adopt the MANE-VU low sulfur fuel limits by 2025. There are separate columns for SO 2 

### control factors and emissions for a “fully adopted” scenario where all states (except Vi rginia) have the MANE-VU low sulfur fuel oil limits in place.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonattainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012Page 36Exhibit 2.18 Currently Adopted Sulfur Content and Control Factors for Residential Fuel Oil CombustionSulfur Content (ppm) Control FactorSTATE FIPS CNTY_NAME 2007 2013 2017 2020 2025 CF_07_13 CF_07_17 CF_07_20 CF_07_25CT 09001 Fairfield 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000CT 09009 New Haven 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000DE 10003 New Castle 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000DC 11001 Washington 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000MD 24003 Anne Arundel 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24005 Baltimore 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24013 Carroll 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24017 Charles 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24021 Frederick 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24025 Harford 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24027 Howard 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24031 Montgomery 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24033 Prince Georges 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24043 Washington 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24510 Baltimore City 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005NJ 34003 Bergen 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34005 Burlington 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34007 Camden 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34013 Essex 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34015 Gloucester 2000 200015 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34017 Hudson 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34021 Mercer 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34023 Middlesex 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34025 Monmouth 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34027 Morris 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34031 Passaic 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonattainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012Page 37Sulfur Content (ppm) Control FactorSTATE FIPS CNTY_NAME 2007 2013 2017 2020 2025 CF_07_13 CF_07_17 CF_07_20 CF_07_25NJ 34035 Somerset 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34039 Union 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NY 36005 Bronx 2000 15 15 15 15 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007NY 36047 Kings 2000 15 15 15 15 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007NY 36059 Nassau 3700 15 15 15 15 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004NY 36061 New York 2000 15 15 15 15 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007NY 36071 Orange 3700 15 15 15 15 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004NY 36081 Queens 2000 15 15 15 15 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007NY 36085 Richmond 2000 15 15 15 15 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007NY 36087 Rockland 3700 15 15 15 15 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004NY 36103 Suffolk 3700 15 15 15 15 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004NY 36119 Westchester 3700 15 15 15 15 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004PA 42003 Allegheny 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42005 Armstrong 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42007 Beaver 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42011 Berks 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42017 Bucks 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42019 Butler 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42021 Cambria 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42029 Chester 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42041 Cumberland 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42043 Dauphin 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42045 Delaware 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42059 Greene 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42063 Indiana 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42071 Lancaster 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42073 Lawrence 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42075 Lebanon 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonattainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012Page 38Sulfur Content (ppm) Control FactorSTATE FIPS CNTY_NAME 2007 2013 2017 2020 2025 CF_07_13 CF_07_17 CF_07_20 CF_07_25PA 42077 Lehigh 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42091 Montgomery 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42095 Northampton 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42101 Philadelphia 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42125 Washington 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42129 Westmoreland 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42133 York 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51013 Arlington 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51059 Fairfax 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51107 Loudoun 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51153 Prince William 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51510 Alexandria 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51600 Fairfax City 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51610 Falls Church 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51683 Manassas City 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51685 Manassas Park City 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonattainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012Page 39Exhibit 2.19 Currently Adopted Sulfur Content and Control Factors for DistillateFuel Oil CombustionSulfur Content (% S) Control FactorSTATE FIPS CNTY_NAME 2007 2013 2017 2020 2025 CF_07_13 CF_07_17 CF_07_20 CF_07_25CT 09001 Fairfield 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000CT 09009 New Haven 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000DE 10003 New Castle 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000DC 11001 Washington 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000MD 24003 Anne Arundel 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24005 Baltimore 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24013 Carroll 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24017 Charles 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24021 Frederick 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24025 Harford 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24027 Howard 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24031 Montgomery 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24033 Prince Georges 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24043 Washington 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005MD 24510 Baltimore City 3000 3000 15 15 15 1.000 0.005 0.005 0.005NJ 34003 Bergen 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34005 Burlington 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34007 Camden 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34013 Essex 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34015 Gloucester 2000 200015 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34017 Hudson 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34021 Mercer 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34023 Middlesex 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34025 Monmouth 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34027 Morris 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34031 Passaic 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonattainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012Page 40Sulfur Content (% S) Control FactorSTATE FIPS CNTY_NAME 2007 2013 2017 2020 2025 CF_07_13 CF_07_17 CF_07_20 CF_07_25NJ 34035 Somerset 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NJ 34039 Union 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.0075 0.0075 0.0075NY 36005 Bronx 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.007 0.007 0.007NY 36047 Kings 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.007 0.007 0.007NY 36059 Nassau 3700 3700 15 15 15 1.000 0.004 0.004 0.004NY 36061 New York 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.007 0.007 0.007NY 36071 Orange 3700 3700 15 15 15 1.000 0.004 0.004 0.004NY 36081 Queens 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.007 0.007 0.007NY 36085 Richmond 2000 2000 15 15 15 1.000 0.007 0.007 0.007NY 36087 Rockland 3700 3700 15 15 15 1.000 0.004 0.004 0.004NY 36103 Suffolk 3700 3700 15 15 15 1.000 0.004 0.004 0.004NY 36119 Westchester 3700 3700 15 15 15 1.000 0.004 0.004 0.004PA 42003 Allegheny 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42005 Armstrong 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42007 Beaver 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42011 Berks 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42017 Bucks 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42019 Butler 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42021 Cambria 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42029 Chester 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42041 Cumberland 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42043 Dauphin 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42045 Delaware 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42059 Greene 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42063 Indiana 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42071 Lancaster 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42073 Lawrence 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42075 Lebanon 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonattainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012Page 41Sulfur Content (% S) Control FactorSTATE FIPS CNTY_NAME 2007 2013 2017 2020 2025 CF_07_13 CF_07_17 CF_07_20 CF_07_25PA 42077 Lehigh 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42091 Montgomery 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42095 Northampton 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42101 Philadelphia 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42125 Washington 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42129 Westmoreland 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42133 York 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51013 Arlington 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51059 Fairfax 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51107 Loudoun 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51153 Prince William 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51510 Alexandria 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51600 Fairfax City 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51610 Falls Church 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51683 Manassas City 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51685 Manassas Park City 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonattainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012Page 42Exhibit 2.20 Currently Adopted Sulfur Content and Control Factors for Residual Fuel Oil CombustionSulfur Content (% S) Control FactorSTATE FIPS CNTY_NAME 2007 2013 2017 2020 2025 CF_07_13 CF_07_17 CF_07_20 CF_07_25CT 09001 Fairfield 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000CT 09009 New Haven 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000DE 10003 New Castle 1.0 1.01.0 1.0 1.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000DC 11001 Washington 1.0 1.01.0 1.0 1.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000MD 24003 Anne Arundel 1.0 1.00.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.500 0.500 0.500MD 24005 Baltimore 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.500 0.500 0.500MD 24013 Carroll 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.500 0.500 0.500MD 24017 Charles 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.250 0.250 0.250MD 24021 Frederick 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.250 0.250 0.250MD 24025 Harford 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.500 0.500 0.500MD 24027 Howard 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.500 0.500 0.500MD 24031 Montgomery 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.500 0.500 0.500MD 24033 Prince Georges 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.500 0.500 0.500MD 24043 Washington 2.0 2.00.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.250 0.250 0.250MD 24510 Baltimore City 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.500 0.500 0.500NJ 34003 Bergen 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NJ 34005 Burlington 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NJ 34007 Camden 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NJ 34013 Essex 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NJ 34015 Gloucester 0.5 0.50.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NJ 34017 Hudson 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NJ 34021 Mercer 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NJ 34023 Middlesex 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NJ 34025 Monmouth 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NJ 34027 Morris 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NJ 34031 Passaic 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonattainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012Page 43Sulfur Content (% S) Control FactorSTATE FIPS CNTY_NAME 2007 2013 2017 2020 2025 CF_07_13 CF_07_17 CF_07_20 CF_07_25NJ 34035 Somerset 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NJ 34039 Union 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NY 36005 Bronx 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NY 36047 Kings 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NY 36059 Nassau 0.37 0.37 0.370.37 0.37 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NY 36061 New York 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NY 36071 Orange 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.333 0.333 0.333NY 36081 Queens 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NY 36085 Richmond 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NY 36087 Rockland 0.37 0.37 0.370.37 0.37 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000NY 36103 Suffolk 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.500 0.500 0.500NY 36119 Westchester 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42003 Allegheny 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42005 Armstrong 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42007 Beaver 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42011 Berks 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42017 Bucks 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42019 Butler 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42021 Cambria 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42029 Chester 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42041 Cumberland 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42043 Dauphin 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42045 Delaware 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42059 Greene 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42063 Indiana 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42071 Lancaster 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42073 Lawrence 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42075 Lebanon 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonattainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012Page 44Sulfur Content (% S) Control FactorSTATE FIPS CNTY_NAME 2007 2013 2017 2020 2025 CF_07_13 CF_07_17 CF_07_20 CF_07_25PA 42077 Lehigh 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42091 Montgomery 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42095 Northampton 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42101 Philadelphia 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42125 Washington 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42129 Westmoreland 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000PA 42133 York 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51013 Arlington 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51059 Fairfax 2.25 2.25 2.252.25 2.25 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51107 Loudoun 2.25 2.25 2.252.25 2.25 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51153 Prince William 2.25 2.252.25 2.25 2.25 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51510 Alexandria 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51600 Fairfax City 2.25 2.252.25 2.25 2.25 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51610 Falls Church 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51683 Manassas City 2.25 2.252.25 2.25 2.25 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000VA 51685 Manassas Park City 2.252.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 45



## 3.0 POINT SOURCES

3.1 POINT SOURCE CATEGORIES

States were asked to clas sify units in the 2007 MANE- VU+VA point source emissions inventory as either EGU or nonE GU. Most, but not all, units that report hourly emissions to USEPA’s Clean Air Markets Division (CAMD) are classified as EGUs.
CAMD implements USEPA’s rule found in Volu me 40 Part 75 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), which requires an hourly accounting of emissions from each affected unit - i.e., sources participating in an em issions cap and trade program under the Acid Rain Control Program, the NO x 

### Budget Trading Program, or th e Clean Air Interstate Rule. Most of the CAMD sources are tr aditional power plants that sell electricity to the electrical grid. However, there are other types of s ources that report to CAMD that are not considered to be EGUs, such as petrol eum refineries and cement kilns.
The following criteria was provided to stat es to classify a unit as an EGU:

 An EGU sells most of the power ge nerated to the electrical grid;

 An EGU burns mostly commercial fuel. Commercial fuel in this case means natural gas, oil, and coal. Wood is not c onsidered a commercial fuel because some states identify wood as rene wable. Therefore, to avoi d double counting, units that burn wood and other renewable sources (depending on each state's own definition) should not be considered as an EGU (unle ss it is already in th e CAMD database). The following units were not considered EGUs for emissi on projections: (1 ) a unit that generates power for a facility but occasionally sells to the gr id; (2) emergency generators; or (3) distributed generation units.
The emission projection methodology for units cl assified as nonEGUs is discussed in Section 3.3. The emission proj ection methodology for EGUs is discussed in Section 3.4.

3.2 2007 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT
The emission projections for the 2025 point source were based on Version 3_3 of the 2007 MANE-VU+VA inventory and are fully docum ented in the TSD for that effort (MARAMA 2012a). The only adjustment to the 2007 Version 3_3 point source source inventory was to apply “transpo rt factors” to fugitive dust sources, as described in the following subsection.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 46



### 3.2.1 Adjustments to the 2007 Inventory Used for the 2025 Projections As described previously in Section 2 .2.1.1, PM2.5 emissions for point sources were adjusted using the USEPA PM transport fractio ns for fugitive dust sources. Exhibit 3.1 shows the list of nonEGU SCCs for which th e transport factor was applied. The major source categories included various operati ons in the mineral pr oducts and construction industries. Exhibit 2.2 in the previous Section 2 shows the tr ansport fractions for each PM nonattainment county.

Exhibit 3.1 NonEGU Point Source SCCs Affected by PM Transport Fraction

SCC SCC Description 30300519 Prim Metal Prod: Primary Copper Smelting: Unpaved Road Traffic: Fug Emiss 30300831 Prim Metal Prod: Iron Production: Unpaved Roads: Light Duty Vehicles 30300832 Prim Metal Prod: Iron Production: Unpaved Roads: Med Duty Vehicles 30300833 Prim Metal Prod: Iron Production: Unpaved Roads: Heavy Duty Vehicles 30300834 Prim Metal Prod: Iron Producti on: Paved Roads: All Vehicle Types 30302321 Prim Metal Prod: Taconite Ir on Ore Processing: Haul Road: Rock 30302322 Prim Metal Prod: Taconite Iron Ore Processing: Haul Road: Taconite 30500290 Industrial Processes;Mineral Products;Asphalt Concrete;Haul Roads: General 30501024 Mineral Products: Coal Mining, Cleaning, & Mat'l Handling: Hauling 30501030 Industrial Processes;Mineral Products;Coal Mining, Cleaning, and Material Handling (See 305310);Tops 30501031 Mineral Products: Coal Mining, Cleaning, & Mat'l Handling: Scrapers: Travel Mode 30501039 Mineral Products: Coal Mining, Cleaning, & Mat'l Handling: Hauling: Haul Trucks 30501045 Mineral Products: Coal Mining, Cleaning , & Mat'l Handling: Bulldozing: Overburden 30501046 Mineral Products: Coal Mining, Cleaning, & Mat'l Handling: Bulldozing: Coal 30501047 Mineral Products: Coal Mining, Cleaning, & Mat'l Handling: Grading 30501048 Industrial Processes;Mineral Products;Coal Mining, Cleaning, and Material Handling (See 305310);Over 30501049 Industrial Processes;Mineral Products;Coal Mining, Cleaning, and Material Handling (See 305310);Wind 30501050 Mineral Products: Coal Mining, Cleaning, & Mat'l Handling: Vehicle Traffic: Light/Medium Vehicles 30501090 Mineral Products: Coal Mining, Cleani ng, & Mat'l Handling: Haul Roads: General 30501640 Mineral Products: Lime Manufacture: Vehicle Traffic 30502011 Mineral Products: Stone Quarrying - Processing: Hauling 30502504 Mineral Products: Construction Sand and Gravel: Hauling 30531090 Mineral Products: Coal Mining, Cleani ng, & Mat'l Handling: Haul Roads: General 31100101 Building Const: Construction: Building C ontractors: Site Preparation: Topsoil Removal 31100102 Building Const: Construction: Building Cont ractors: Site Prep: Earth Moving (Cut and Fill)Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 47

SCC SCC Description
31100103 Building Const: Construction: Building Contractors: Site Prep: Aggregate Hauling (On Dirt) 31100205 Building Const: Demolitions/Special Trade Contracts: On-site Truck Traffic 31100206 Building Const: Demolitions/Special Trade Contracts: On-site Truck Traffic 50100401 Waste Disposal;Solid Waste Disposal - Government;Landfill Dump;Unpaved Road Traffic



### 3.3 2025 NONEGU INVENT ORY DEVELOPMENT

3.3.1 NonEGU Growth Factors NonEGU point source growth factors were developed using three sets of data:

 Annual Energy Outlook fuel consumption forecasts;

 State-level employment proj ections by NAICS code; and

 Other state-specific em ission projection data. The priority for applying these growth factor s was to first use the state-supplied projection data (if available). If no st ate-supplied data are available, then we used AEO projection factors for fuel consumption sources and empl oyment data for other source categories. The AEO fuel consumption forecasts and em ployment projections by NAICS code used for area sources were also used for nonEGU point sources. See Section 2.3.1 of this report for a description of these data sets.
Section 2 described the growth factors used to develop projected future year emissions inventories for both area and non-EGU sources. Draft growth and cont rol factors, and a draft technical support document, were circ ulated for review by MARAMA and state agencies. During the review, it was noted that several emissions categories show negative growth into the future, particularly categor ies related to fossil fuel combustion and manufacturing employment. The AEO forecas ts show declining trends for many fuel consumption sectors, especially industrial, residential, and commercial distillate fuel oil use. Similarly, the employment projections show declines in the predicted number of employees for many sectors of the economy. This is particularly true for the manufacturing sector, which is of interest b ecause this sector is often associated with higher emissions than those for other sectors. By contrast, the employment projections show increasing trends in retail and service-related sectors.
Predicted declines in fuel use and employmen t resulted in growth factors less than unity (i.e., represent negative growth) for many area and non-EGU point source categories. Consequently, for some categorie s, emissions are lower for the projected future years thanDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 48


### for the base year, even before the applicati on of control assumptions (i.e., the future "growth only" emissions are lower than th e base year emissions). The MARAMA emissions inventory workgroup met on several occasions via conference calls and email exchanges to discuss whether the negative gr owth projections were realistic, and what additional assumptions should be made. A topi c of particular concer n is negative growth for non-EGU point sources versus the treatmen t of Emissions Reduction Credits (ERCs) in the future year inventories.
A few states cited the importance of the ne gative growth issue for non-EGUs and how it relates to their ERC programs which are critical to new businesses being able to locate in those states. Because businesses could apply fo r and sell ERCs at the level of the base year inventory, it would not be realistic to show negative growth for non-EGU point sources. During an economic downturn, a f acility could shut down and sell its ERCs, making the effective level of future year emi ssions equal to (i.e., no lower than) the base year. Therefore, a recommended conservative approach for addressing negative growth for non-EGU point sources is to set a mini mum growth rate of 1 (no growth).
During the conference call held on July 23, 2010 to discuss the ne gative growth issue, state agency representatives were polled as to whet her or not they felt th at the current set of proposed growth factors - including the negative growth factors - were realistic for their state or district. In reply, some representativ es mentioned that they have observed historic state-specific data that supports the trends displayed by the pr oposed growth factors. Other representatives mentioned that they feel comfortable with the growth factors and don't have a technical basis to change them or sugge st others. Some states will supply their own factors or make their own assumptions.
As a result of these discussions, each stat e provided guidance on how to handle projections when negative growth is indicated. Exhi bit 3.2 shows the state recommendations for nonEGU point sources.

Exhibit 3.2 State Recommendations to Address Negative Growth for the NonEGU Point Source Sector

State AEO2010 Growth Factors Employment Growth Factors

CT Use no growth (growth factor=1) when AEO growth is negative; otherwise use AEO2010 if positive growth Use state DOL employment projections by 3- digit NAICS

DE Use AEO2010 growth rates For 2013, use state DOL employment projections by 3-digit NAICS; For 2017 and 2020, use no growth (growth factor=1) when employment growth isDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 49

State AEO2010 Growth Factors Employment Growth Factors negative; otherwise use employment if positive growth DC Use AEO2010 growth rates Use state 2008-2018 DOL employment projections by 3-digit NAICS; no growth when employment is projected to decrease MD Not using AEO2010 growth factors (except for the electric power generation SCCs); Use MD DOL employment projections for industrial and commercial fuel use SCCs, unless employment growth rate is negative, in which case use no growth (growth factor=1) Use updated state DOL employment projections by 3-digit NAICS; For DoD facilities, account for impacts of Base Realignment and Closure; For source that have closed, account for emission reduction credits NJ New Jersey submitted state specific growth factors. Used either state specific growth factors, no growth (g rowth factor=1) when state AEO growth is negative or AEO if positive growth NJ submitted state specific growth factors. Used either state specific factors, no growth (growth factor=1) when state DOL employment growth is negative or employment if positive growth NY Use no growth (growth factor=1) when AEO growth is negative; otherwise use AEO2010 if positive growth Use no growth (growth factor=1) when employment growth is negative; otherwise use employment if positive growth PA Use no growth (growth factor=1) when AEO growth is negative; otherwise use AEO2010 if positive growth Use no growth (growth factor=1) when employment growth is negative; otherwise use employment if positive growth VA Use no growth (growth factor=1) when AEO growth is negative; otherwise use AEO2010 if positive growth Use no growth (growth factor=1) when employment growth is negative; otherwise use employment if positive growth



### 3.3.2 Emission Reduction Credits Mulitple states (Connecticut, Maryland, and New Jersey) added county level records account for account emission reduction credit s (ERCs) issued to stationary sources pursuant to state regulations. States pr ovided ERCs on a county-by-county basis. Fictitious facilities with an identifier of “OFFSET99999” were created for each county using SCC 23-99-000-000 (miscellaneous industrial processes: not elsewh ere classified). Stack data were developed that assumed th at emissions were re leased at the county centroid with an assumed release height of 10 feet. For the 2017 and 2020 inventories, ERC emissions were set to the amount of banked emissions available in 2007.
Delaware included the banked credits at the spec ific locations that they were generated. New York and Pennsylvania did not explic itly provide any information on ERCs.

The District of Columbia and Virginia do not have a formal banking and trading program. They used growth rates of 1 for those SCCs in the point source emissions inventory that showed a negative growth. In addition, for units that have or are pr ojected to have shutDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 50


### down, they preserved the 2007 emissions in the inventory to account fo r potential use as offsets or credits.

3.3.3 NonEGU Control Factors Control factors were developed for both on-th e-books regulations and proposed regulations and other actions to estimate em ission reductions in future years. Control factors were considered for the following nationa l or regional control measures:

 Federal Rules Affecting NonEGU Point Sources

 OTC 2001 Model Rules

 OTC 2006 Model Rules

 MANE-VU Sulfur in Fuel Oil Strategy
These control programs are discussed in the following subsections.

3.3.3.1 

### Federal Actions Affecting NonEGU Point Sources USEPA made available its 2020 emissions proj ections associated with its 2005-based v4 modeling platform (USEPA 2010a). These cate gories, and how they were accounted for in the MANE-VU+VA emission projection inve ntories, are described below:

 MACT Standards - USEPA developed guidance for estimating VOC and NO x 

### emission changes from MACT Rules (USE PA 2007b). We reviewed the guidance to identify nonEGU source controls asso ciated with MACT standards for controlling HAPs. The information c oncerning MACT compliance periods was used to determine whether the MACT st andard resulted in post-2007 emission reductions. Because major source categor ies had a compliance period of 2007 or earlier, we assumed that the emission re ductions from the MACT standard should be reflected in the baseline year and not as an additional post- 2007 credit. The only exception to the above discussion of ar ea source MACT standards pertains to the recently promulgated rules for recipr ocating internal combustion engines. USEPA made available an estimate of the percent reduction in emissions attributable to the RICE MACT ru le in 2012 and 2014 (USEPA 2010b). These reductions by SCC are shown in Exhibit 3.3. The USEPA 2014 estimates were used for the MANE-VU+VA 2017, 2020 and 2025 inventories.

 Industrial, Commercial, a nd Institutional Boilers a nd Process Heaters MACT Standard - USEPA’ s 2020 control factor file identified a number of solid fuelburning SCCs for which they estimated an 87% reduction in both PM10 and PM2.5. These were used for 2025 also for the affected SCCs.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 51



###  Petroleum refinery enforcement settlements - For the facilities identified by USEPA located in New Jersey and Penns ylvania we applied post-2007 estimated reductions for NO x 

### , PM10, PM2.5, and SO 2 

### to affected units.

Exhibit 3.3 USEPA Estimated Percent Reductions for RICE MACT Standard

SCC NOx PM2.5 SCC Description 20100102 15.14 Electric Generation;Distillate Oil (Diesel);Reciprocating

20100105 15.14 Electric Generation;Distillat e Oil (Diesel);R eciprocating: Crankcase Blowby
20100107 15.14 Electric Generation;Distillat e Oil (Diesel);R eciprocating: Exhaust 20100202 12.53 Electric Generation;Natural Gas;Reciprocating 20100207 12.53 Electric Generation;Natural Gas;Reciprocating: Exhaust 20200102 15.14 Industrial;Distillate Oil (Diesel);Reciprocating 20200104 15.14 Industrial;Distillate Oil (Diesel);Reciprocating: Cogeneration 20200107 15.14 Industrial;Distillate Oil (Diesel);Reciprocating: Exhaust 20200202 12.53 Industrial;Natural Gas;Reciprocating 20200204 12.53 Industrial;Natural Gas;Reciprocating: Cogeneration 20200207 12.53 Industrial;Natural Gas;Reciprocating: Exhaust 20200253 37.96 Industrial;Natural Gas;4-cycle Rich Burn 20200301 37.96 Industrial;Gasoline;Reciprocating 20200307 37.96 Industrial;Gasoline;Reciprocating: Exhaust 20201001 12.53 Industrial;Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG);Propane 20201002 12.53 Industrial;Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG);Butane 20201702 37.96 Industrial;Gasoline;Reciprocating Engine 20201707 37.96 Industrial;Gasoline;Reciprocating: Exhaust 20300101 15.14 Commercial/Institutional;Distillate Oil (Diesel);Reciprocating

20300105 15.14 Commercial/Institutional;Distillate Oil (Diesel);Reciprocating: Crankcase Blowby
20300106 15.14 Commercial/Institutional;Distillate Oil (Diesel);Reciprocating: Evaporative Losses
20300107 15.14 Commercial/Institutional;Distillate Oil (Diesel);Reciprocating: Exhaust 20300201 12.53 Commercial/Institut ional;Natural Gas;Reciprocating 20300204 12.53 Commercial/Institut ional;Natural Gas;Cogeneration

20300207 12.53 Commercial/Institutional;Natural Gas;Reciprocating: Exhaust 20300301 37.96 Commercial/Institutional;Gasoline;Reciprocating 20300307 37.96 Commercial/Instituti onal;Gasoline;Reciprocating: Exhaust

20301001 12.53 Commercial/Institutional;Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG);Propane
20301002 12.53 Commercial/Institutional;Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG);Butane 20400401 37.96 Engine Testing;Re ciprocating Engine;GasolineDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 52

SCC NOx PM2.5 SCC Description 20400402 15.14 Engine Testing;Reci procating Engine;Diesel/Kerosene

20400403 15.14 Engine Testing;Reciprocating Engine;Distillate Oil: CI: CI: VOC 2005cr = 0
31000203 12.53 Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas Production;Compressors
50100421 12.53 Solid Waste Disposal;Landfill Dump;Waste Gas Recovery: Internal Combustion Device

3.3.3.2 

### OTC 2001 Model Rules for NonEGUs The OTC developed NO x 

### control measures for industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) boilers and distri buted generation units in 2001 (O TC 2001). We reviewed the OTC’s status reports to identify states stat us in adopting the OT C 2001 model rules (OTC 2009a). Most states have a dopted the OTC model rules with compliance dates in 2007 or earlier. As a result, we assumed that th e emission reductions from the 2001 OTC model rules for nonEGUs are already reflected in the 2007 inventory and no post- 2007 reductions were applied.

3.3.3.3 

### OTC 2006 Model Rules for NonEGUs In 2006, the OTC introduced model rules (OTC 2007) for one nonEGU VOC source category (adhesives/sealants) and new/more stringent requirements for several NO x 

### source categories (asphalt production plants, cemen t kilns, glass/fiberglass furnaces, and industrial, commercial, and in stitutional {ICI} boilers). We reviewed the OTC’s status reports to identify where stat e status in adopting the OTC 2006 model rules (OTC 2009b). To obtain further clarificati on of each state’s status, stat es were polled to determine whether they have adopted a rule that woul d achieve reductions equivalent to the OTC model rule, whether credit for each rule wa s already accounted for in the 2007 inventory, and whether the estimated reduction in em issions should be applied in 2013, 2017, 2020 and 2025. The following paragraphs describe th e control factors applied for each rule by state and future year.

3.3.3.3.1 OTC 2006 Model Rule for Asphalt Production Plants


### The OTC recommended that member states pur sue state-specific rulemakings or other implementation methods that would ach ieve a 35 percent reduction in NO x 

### emissions. States were polled to determine whether they have adopted a rule that would achieve reductions equivalent to the 2006 OTC model ru le and whether the estimated reduction in NO x 

### emissions should be applied in 2013, 2017, 2020 and 2025. Only New Jersey indicated that the reductions s hould be applied. New York di d not provide guidance, and itDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 53



### was assumed that the NO x 

### reductions should be applied in New York for three future years. All other states indicated that the NO x 

### reductions should not be applied in the future years. For those states that indicated they wanted to include the reductions, a 35 percent reduction in NO x 

### emissions was applie d for SCC 3-05-002-xx.

3.3.3.3.2 OTC 2006 Model Rule for Cement Manufacturing Plants


### Cement kilns are located in Maryland, New York, and Pennsylvania. Virginia has one cement kiln, which is not located in a PM nonattainment county. The OTC recommended state-specific rulemakings or other implement ation methods that would result in about a 60 percent reduction in uncontrolled levels NO x 

### emissions. This emission reduction for cement kilns was calculated using the methodol ogy previously developed and documented in the OTC report (OTC 2007). Cement kilns are already subject to NO x 

### controls as part of Phase I of the NO x 

### SIP call. Emission reductions resulting from the NO x 

### SIP call are already accounted for in the 2007 inventory.
The following methods were used to calcula te the additional re ductions from the OTC 2006 Control Measure in each state:

 Maryland indicated controls will become effective in 2011 for the two facilities in the state. Maryland specified a 25 percen t reduction for the Holcim facility and a 40 percent reduction for the Lehigh facility. No reductions were specified for the two kilns at the Essroc facility.

 New York did not provide guidance regardi ng cement kilns. We used the percent reductions previously developed and docum ented in the previous round of emission projections developed for MARAMA (M ARAMA 2007). An incremental control efficiency of 40 percent was used for Ne w York cement kilns in that inventory.

 Pennsylvania provided kiln-speci fic projected future year NO x 

### emissions for 2013,2017, and 2020. The 2020 controlled emissions were also used for 2025. A kilnspecific control factor was calculated based on the ratio of the future year emissions to the 2007 emissions.

3.3.3.3.3 OTC 2006 Model Rule for Gla ss and Fiberglass Furnaces


### The OTC recommended state-specific rulemaki ngs or other implementation methods to achieve an approximately 85 percent reduction in NO x 

### emissions from uncontrolled levels. Emission reductions for glass and fibergla ss furnaces were calculated using the methodology previously developed and documen ted in the OTC report (OTC 2007). Glass and fiberglass furnaces are located in Maryla nd, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. There are no other States with facilities in a PM nonattainment county.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 54


### The following methods were used to calcula te the additional re ductions from the OTC 2006 Control Measure in each state:

 Maryland indicated that a 48 percent reducti on should be applied to the single glass manufacturing facili ty in Maryland.

 New Jersey indicated that a 50 percent reduction in NO x 

### emissions should be applied to glass and fiberglass furnaces in 2013, 2017, 2020 and 2025.

 New York did not provide guidance regard ing glass or fiberglass furnaces. We used the percent reductions developed a nd documented in the previous round of emission projections developed for MARAMA (MARAMA 2007). An incremental control efficiency of 70 pe rcent was used for New York glass and fiberglass furnaces in that inventory.

 Pennsylvania provided furnace-speci fic projected future year NO x 

### emissions for 2017 and 2020 for all facilities, including those in Allegheny County. The 2020 controlled emissions were also used fo r 2025. A furnace-specific control factor was calculated based on the ratio of th e future year emissions to the 2007 emissions.

 For the three glass manufacturing facilit ies in Allegheny County, we used the percent reductions previous ly developed and documented in the previous round of emission projections developed for MARAMA (MARAMA 2007). An incremental control efficiency of 86 pe rcent was used for Allegheny County glass and fiberglass furnaces in that inventory.

3.3.3.3.4 OTC 2006 Model Rule for ICI Boilers


### The OTC recommended that member states pur sue state-specific rulemakings or other implementation methods to achieve NO x 

### emission reduction for industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) boilers ba sed on guidelines that varied by boiler size and fuel type. States were polled to determine whether they have adopted a rule that would achieve reductions equivalent to the 2006 OTC reco mmendations and whether the estimated reduction in NO x 

### emissions should be applied in 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2025.
Most states have not adopted rules equiva lent to the 2006 OTC recommendations. These states indicated that they will likely depend on a USEPA national rule for possible inclusion in the BOTW inventory. Specific ally, the OTC Resoluti on 10-01 (June, 2010) called on USEPA for national re gulations for ICI boilers.
New Jersey provided NO x 

### percent reductions that varied by heat input rate and fuel/boiler type and included an 80 percen t rule effectiveness adjustme nt, as shown in Exhibit 3.4.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 55



### Exhibit 3.4 NonEGU Point Sou rce Emission Reductions from New Jersey ICI Boiler NO x 

### Rules

Heat Input Rate (mmBtu/hr) Fuel/Boiler Type Overall % Reduction 2007-2025 at least 5 but < 10 All 20% at least 10 but < 20 All 20% at least 25 but < 50 Natural gas only 40% No. 2 Fuel oil only 40% Refinery fuel gas and other gaseous fuels 40%
Other liquid fuels 40% Duel Fuel using fuel oil and/or natural gas 40%
at least 50 but < 100 Natural gas only 40% No. 2 Fuel oil only 27% Other liquid fuels 27% Duel Fuel using fuel oil and/or natural gas 40%

at least 100 or greater No. 2 Fuel oil only 40%


### The NIF file submitted by New Jersey for this project did not include the boiler design capacity. This data gap was filled using the boiler design capacities previously developed for the OTC study in 2006, if available; otherw ise the SCC description was used to assign a default boiler design capacity.
New York specified that a 50 percent reduction should be applied in the existing controls inventory for all boilers with greater than 25 mmBtu/hour design capacity. The NIF file submitted by New York for this project did not include the boiler design capacity. This data gap was filled using the boiler design capacities previously developed for the OTC study in 2006, if available; ot herwise the SCC description wa s used to assign a default boiler design capacity.

3.3.3.4 

### MANE-VU Fuel Oil Sulfur Strategy MANE-VU developed a low sulfur fuel oil st rategy to help states develop Regional Haze SIPs (MANE-VU 2007). The sulfur in fuel o il recommendations were previously shown in Section 2.3.2.5 and vary by state, fu el oil type, and implementation year.

3.3.3.5 

### State-specific NonEGU Control Factors The following state-specific nonEGU control factors were provided:Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 56



###  Bellefield Boiler Plant, Allegheny County. Allegheny County indicated that this facility changed their fuel source from co al to natural gas in July 2009 and future year emissions were changed to reflect the fuel switch.

 USS Clairton Works
, Allegheny County. The facility will remove Batteries 7-9 and have Battery C operational by 2013, resul ting in a change in PM emissions in 2013. Also, USS Clairton Works will rem ove Batteries 1-3 and have Battery D operational in 2015, resulting in a change in PM emissions in 2017, 2020 and 2025.

 Chrysler, Delaware. The Chrysler facility (ID 1000300128) shut down in 2009. Delaware specified that only a 25 per cent reduction should be taken for all pollutants as some emissions will be banked for future use by other sources.

 OSG Ship Management (ID 1000500093), Delaware. Delaware provided sourcespecific growth factors and percent re ductions in VOC emissions for 2013, 2017, and 2020 from the lightering operations at OSG Ship Management (ID 1000500093). The 2025 emissions were expected to be the same as the 2020 emissions.

 Control Technology Guidance (CTG) Documents, Delaware. Delaware determined that VOC emission reductions from new CTG recommendations would be very small. Although the new CTGs set up new recommendations for higher control efficiencies, the actual VOC reductions would be minimum, if not none, because most DE’s existing facilities are not affected by the new requirements and emissions from those facilities are rela tively small (based on 2002 inventory).

 Unit Shutdowns, Delaware. Delaware identified several emission units that have shut down at the following facilitie s: Dow Reichhold Specialty latex (ID 1000100016), SPI Poly-Ols (ID 1000300426), and Invistas (ID 1000500002). Emissions for all pollutants were set to zero for these units.

 Premcor Refinery NO x 

### Plantwide Cap, Delaware. The refinery was sold to the Delaware City Refining Company and an agreement was reached with DNREC's Secretary that allows plant-wide applicability limit (cap) for NO x 

### . Delaware decided to devide the NO x 

### -cap to each stack equally. Delaware estimated a plantwide reduction of 1 0.05 percent in 2013 and 41.22 percent in 2017, 2020 and 2025.

 PEPCO Benning Road, Di strict of Columbia. This facility is scheduled for deactivation in 2012. All emissions were set to zero in the projection inventories.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 57



###  2009 New Jersey Rule for NO x 

### for Municipal Solid Waste Incinerators. This rule will achieve a 27 percen t reduction from one facili ty - Camden County Energy Recovery Associates, L.P. (ID 3400751614).

 New Jersey Rule for VOC Storage Tanks. New Jersey provided expected VOC emission reductions resulting from post -2007 rules for VOC storage tanks. For refinery floating roof storage tanks (SCC 4-03-011-xx), the reductions are 75 percent for 2013, 82 percent for 2017, and 85 percent for 2020. For bulk terminal tanks (SCC 4-04-001-xx), the reductions are 20 percent for 2013, 40 percent for 2017, and 50 percent for 2020. For pipeline breakout stations (SCCs 4-04-002-xx and 4-06-005-xx), the reductions are 26 percent for 2013, 52 percent for 2017, and 65 percent for 2020 and 2025.

3.4 2025 EGU INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT
An emission projection methodology for EGUs is being developed as part of an inter-RPO coordination effort under the direction of ERTA C. The computer code to implement the ERTAC methodology will not be available in time for use in state’s re-designation requests or maintenance plans. An interim approach for projecting EGU emissions is discussed in the following paragraph.
Annual 2007 EGU point emissions were grown to 2025 based on electricity generation projections that are delineat ed by region and fuel. Growth factors are based on AEO2011 Table 96 - Electricity Generati on by Electricity Market Modu le Region and Fuel Source (see Appendix F). The 2007 emissions were ex tracted for those units flagged as EGUs in the MANE-VU+VA 2007 inventory. The a ppropriate AEO2011 growth factor was applied to the 2007 emissions to calculate a “growth only” emission value for 2025. The following key assumptions were made:

 Growth beyond unit capacity or permit limits was not considered (e.g., fuel consumption was allowed to grow beyond a unit’s physical capacity or permit limit);

 Generation from specific new units that ar e anticipated to operate in 2025 but did not in 2007 is not explicitly accounted for, but instead is assumed to be accounted for in the AEO2011 growth forecasts;

 Similarly, generation from specific units that have or are antici pated to shut down after 2007 is not explicitly accounted for, but instead are assumed to be accounted for in the AEO2011 growth forecasts.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 58



###  States indicated where post -2007 controls or shut downs were to be applied on a unit by unit basis. The control factors we re applied to the grown emissions to calculate a “growth and contro l” emission value for 2025.
Details on the growth and c ontrol factors are provided in the following sections.

3.4.1 EGU Growth Factors Table 96 of the AEO2011 provides electricity ge neration projections by electricity market module region and fuel source for the years 2007 to 2035 (EIA 2011b). AEO2011 disaggregates generation to 22 s ub-regions for electricity plan ning and dispatch This is a new approach started in AE O2011. Disaggregation of the El ectricity Market Module (EMM) is intended to reduce erro rs that result from aggregat ion and averaging, to better represent environmental and re gional issues, and thus to improve the projections of capacity additions and fuels consumed for ge neration. Exhibit 4.1 identifies the 22 subregions.

Exhibit 3.5 Electricity Market Module RegionsDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 59


### The EIA provided a file that assigns each EGU to an EMM region. Units in the PM nonattainment counties included in this analysis reside in one of the following seven EMM regions:

 Northeast Power Coordinating Council / Northeast (NEWE)

 Northeast Power Coordinating Coun cil / NYC Westchester (NYCW)

 Northeast Power Coordinating Council / Long Island (NYLI)

 Northeast Power Coordinating Coun cil / Upstate New York (NYUP)

 Reliability First Corporation / East (RFCE)

 Reliability First Corporation / West (RFCW)

 SERC Reliability Corporation / Virginia Carolina (SRVC)
Exhibit 3.6 shows the growth factors for elect ricity generation for coal. The AEO2011 shows zero generation from coal in the NYC Westchester and Long Island regions. Generation from coal is projected to declin e significantly in the Northeast and Upstate New York regions. Generation from coal is e xpected to decline slightly in the RFC East, RFC West, and SERC Virginia -Carolina regions.
Exhibit 3.7 shows the growth factors for el ectricity generation for petroleum. The AEO2011 shows that the growth factors vary widely by EMM region. A positive growth rate (e.g., growth factor > 1) from 2007 to 2025 is projected for the RFC East and SERC Virginia-Carolina regions. In all other EMM regions in the study area, generation from petroleum is projected to declin e (e.g., growth factor < 1).
Exhibit 3.8 shows the growth factors for elect ricity generation for natural gas. The AEO2011 shows that the growth factors vary widely by EMM region. A negative growth rate (e.g., growth factor < 1) from 2007 to 2025 is projected for the NYC Westchester and SERC Virginia-Carolina regions. In all other EMM regions in the study area, generation from natural gas is projected to increase (e.g., growth factor > 1).
Exhibit 3.9 shows the growth factors for el ectricity generation for renewables. The AEO2011 shows that the growth factors vary widely by EMM region. A large increase in generation from renewables from 2007 to 2025 is projected for the RFC East, RFC West and SERC Virginia-Carolina regions. A more modest increase in renewable is projected for the Northeast and Upstate New York regions. A slight decline is projected for the NYC Westchester and L ong Island regions.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 60



### Exhibit 3.6 Electricity Generati on Growth Factors for Coal

Exhibit 3.7 Electricity Generation Growth Factors for PetroleumDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 61



### Exhibit 3.8 Electricity Generation Growth Factors for Natural Gas

Exhibit 3.9 Electricity Generation Growth Factors for RenewablesDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 62


### After reviewing the AEO growth factor s, New York had doubts about the AEO projections. To be conservati ve, New York specified that a growth factor of 1.0 should be used for any unit where AEO growth was projected to be negative.

3.4.2 EGU Control Factors States provided information on post-2007 controls or shut downs to be applied on a unit by unit basis for the 2025 inventory. This control information was pr ovided in a format that is being used by the ERTAC EGU Proj ection Methodology (Appendix G UAF NEEDS Control FileMASTER92211.xls).
In addition to the ERTAC control file, the following comments were received:

 Delaware – The Edge Moor facility (O RIS=593) plans to switch from coal to natural gas/# 6 oil. However, the Titl e V permit is not yet approved. Delaware made the decision to assume the facility still is burning coal in 2025 for the purposes of this PM re-designation inve ntory. Delaware may change the EGU estimates at a future date when the SIP submittal is written.

 District of Columbia – The PEPCO Benning Road facility (ORIS=603) is scheduled to shut down permanently in 2012 and all future year emissions have been set to zero.

 Maryland – The Healthy Air Act sets unit-specific emission caps (tons/year) for SO 2 

### and NO x 

### . Maryland provided unit specific co ntrol factors to ensure that the future year emissions were equal to the Healthy Air Act emission caps. Affected facilities include CP Crane, Herbert A Wagner, R. Paul Smith, Chalk Point, Dickerson, Morgantown, and Brandon Shores.

 New Jersey – Control factors for SO 2 

### and NO x 

### for each unit were calculated based on the ratio of the future controlled em ission rate (lbs/mmBtu) to the 2007 actual emission rate (lbs/mmBtu). Large reductions in SO 2 

### emissions are expected from the installation of control equipment at th e Hudson and Mercer generating stations. NO x 

### controls were also installed at the Hudson generating station in 2010.

 Pennsylvania – RRI’s Portland Generati ng Station is under a USEPA Order to reduce SO 2 

### emissions. SO 2 

### emissions beyond 013 were reduced by 95 percent to address the ordered emission reductions. SO 2 

### controls were installed at RRI Keystone, PPL Brunner Island, and Alle gheny Energy Hatfields Ferry in 2010. SO 2 

### controls at the Cheswick Station were installed in 2011. Units 1 and 2 at PPL Martins Creek, Units 1 and 2 at Exelon Cromby, and Units 1 and 2 at ExelonDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 63


### Eddystone are or will be permanently shut down by 2013 and the emissions for all pollutants were set to zero for 2017/2020/2025. The future operation of Unit 1 at Exelon Schuylkill are projected to be about 250 hours, compared to 1,037 hours in 2007. Future emissions for this unit were reduced by 75 percent to reflect this lowered operating capacity.

 Virginia – Dry scrubbers at the Potomac Ri ver Generating Station were installed in 2008. In 2008, the facility received a fede rally enforceable facility-wide permit that placed limits on the facility’s annual potential to emit of both NO X 

### and SO 2 

### .
3.4.3 Consideration of CSAPR Emission Allowances On July 6, 2011, the USEPS finalized the Cro ss-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) that requires 27 states to reduce power plant emissi ons that contribute to ozone and/or fine particle pollution in other states. This fi nal rule replaces the 2005 Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). Under the final rule, USEPA distributes a annual SO2 and NOx emission allowances to covered units in each state, the sum of which equals the annual SO2 and NOx budgets for those states (allowing for a two percent set-aside for new units).
USEPA provided allocations for each affected unit. States initially considered whether these unit-level allocations fo r SO2 and NOx provided a more realistic estimate of future year emissions than the growth and cont rol methodology described in Sections 4.3.1 and 4.3.2 of this report. However, the United Stat es Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia issued an order staying CSAPR on December 31, 2011, pending the resolution of an appeal of the rule. Because of the uncertainty regarding implementation of CSAPR, states decided to use the gr owth and control methodology de scribed in Sections 4.3.1 and 4.3.2 rather than the proposed CSAPR caps for SO2 and NOx.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 64



## 4.0 NONROAD MOBILE SOURCES INCLUDED IN NMIM

4.1 NONROAD MODEL CATEGORIES

USEPA’s NONROAD model estimates emission s from equipment such as recreational marine vessels, recreational la nd-based vehicles, farm and construction machinery, lawn and garden equipment, aircraft ground s upport equipment (GSE) and rail maintenance equipment. This equipment is powered by di esel, gasoline, compressed natural gas (CNG) or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) engines.
NMIM was developed by USEPA to develop co unty-level emission estimates for certain types of nonroad equipment. NMIM uses the current version the NONROAD model to develop emission estimates and was used to develop the projection inventories discussed here. The NMIM national county database cont ains monthly input data to reflect county specific fuel parameters and temperatures. Mo st of the work associated with executing NMIM involved updating the NMIM county data base with state-specific information.

4.2 2007 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT
MARAMA used the NMIM model to develop county level emission estimates by SCC for 2007 (see {MARAMA 2011a} for complete documentation). For this analysis, the NMIM2008 software (version NMIM20090504), th e NMIM County Database (version NCD20090531), and NONROAD2008a (July 2009 ve rsion) were used as starting points (USEPA 2009a). Changes were made to the NCD20090531 based on state review and
comment.
A summary of the major adjustments to the default NMIM County Database for the 2007 NMIM model runs includes:

 State review and adjustments to fuel char acteristics (Reid Vapor Pressure, sulfur and oxygenate fractions) to be tter represent county-specifi c fuel characteristics in 2007; and

 States identified discrepanc ies in the housing and populati on data contained in the NONROAD model and these data were updated using 2007 housing information and updated 2007 population estimates.

 The recreational marine vessel populations were revised using population data provided by the National Marine Manufactur ers Association (NMMA ). Total state populations for each of the three majo r categories contained in the NONROAD model (outboard, inboard/sterndrive and personal watercraft) were provided.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 65


### Because the population files used by the NONROAD model (and thus NMIM) were configured with population values for various horsepower categories, AMEC determined the fraction of the total for each marine vessel type in each horsepower category from the NONROAD default populatio n files. These fractions were then used to allocate the total state populat ion obtained from NMMA to the various horsepower categories.

4.3 2025 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT

MARAMA ran the NMIM model for 2025 for si x jurisdictions (VA, CT, DE, DC, MD, PA). One state, New York, did their ow n NONROAD modeling and provided 2025 NMIM results for the affected counties.

4.4 REMOVAL OF AIRPORT GR OUND SUPPORT EQUIPMENT

The NMIM/NONROAD model includes emissions from airport ground support equipment. Emissions from airport ground support equipment is also included in USEPA’s aircraft inventory th at was prepared using the Fe deral Aviation Administration’s Emissions and Dispersion Modeling Syst em (EDMS). Correspondence with USEPA indicated that USEPA considers the emissions calculated by EDMS to be better than those calculated by NONROAD. For this r eason, all emissions calculated by NMIM/ NONROAD for airport ground support equipm ent were removed from both the 2007 and 2025 inventories to avoid double counting emissions.

4.5 NMIM/NONROAD GROWTH AND CONTROL INFORMATION
In estimating future year emissions, the NMIM/NONROAD model includes growth and scrappage rates for equipment in addition to a variety of control programs. It is not possible to separate out the future year emissi ons due to “growth only” or “control only” in a single run. That is, the mode l run provides a single future ye ar estimate that is a “growth and control” scenario.
The growth data used in the NMIM/NONROAD model is documented in a USEPA report (USEPA 2004c). The GROWTH packet of the NONROAD model cross-references each SCC to a growth indicator code. The indicator is an arbitrary code th at identifies an actual predicted value such as human population or employment that is used to estimate the future year equipment population. The GROW TH packet also defines the scrappage curves used to estimate the future year model year distribution.

The NMIM/NONROAD model also accounts for all USEPA emission standards for nonroad equipment. There are multiple sta ndards that vary by equipment type, ratedDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 66


### power, model year, and pollutant. Exhibit 4.1 is a summary of the emission control programs accounted for in the NMIM/NONROAD model. A complete summary of the nonroad equipment emission standards can be found on USEPA’s nonroad emission standards reference guide website (USEPA 2011).Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 67


### Exhibit 4.1 Control Programs Included in the NMIM/NONROAD Model

Regulation Description Control of Air Pollution; Determination of Significance for Nonroad Sources and Emission Standards for New Nonroad Compression Ignition Engines At or Above 37 Kilowatts 59 FR 31036 June 17, 1994 This rule establishes Tier 1 exhaust emission standards for HC, NO x , CO, and PM for nonroad compression-ignition (CI) engines ≥ 37kW ( ≥ 50hp). Marine engines are not included in this rule. The start dates and pollutants affected vary by hp category as follows: 50-100 hp: Tier 1,1998; NO x only 100-175 hp: Tier 1, 1997; NO x only 175-750 hp: Tier 1, 1996; HC, CO, NO x , PM >750 hp: Tier 1, 2000; HC, CO, NO x , PMEmissions for New Nonroad SparkIgnition Engines At or Below 19 Kilowatts; Final Rule 60 FR 34581 July 3, 1995 This rule establishes Phase 1 exhaust emission standards for HC, N NO x Ox, and CO for nonroad spark-ignition engines ≤ 19kW ( ≤ 25hp). This rule includes both handheld (HH) and non-hand-held (NHH ) engines. The Phase 1 standards become effective in 1997 for : Class I NHH engines (<225cc), Class II NHH engines ( ≥ 225cc), Class III HH engines (<20cc), and Class IV HH engines ( ≥ 20cc and <50cc). The Phase 1 standards become effective in 1998 for: Class V HH engines ( ≥ 50cc)Final Rule for New Gasoline SparkIgnition Marine Engines; Exemptionsfor New Nonroad CompressionIgnition Engines at or Above 37Kilowatts and New Nonroad SparkIgnition Engines at or Below 19 Kilowatts 61 FR 52088 October 4, 1996 This rule establishes exhaust emission standards for HC+ NO x for personal watercraft and outboard (PWC/OB) marine SI engines. The standards are phased in from 1998-2006.

Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Nonroad Diesel Engines 63 FR 56967 October 23, 1998 This final rule sets Tier 1 standards for engines under 50 hp, phasing in from 1999 to 2000. It also phases in more stringent Tier 2 standards for all engine sizes from 2001 to 2006, and yet more stringent Tier 3 standards for engines rated over 50 hp from 2006 to 2008. The Tier 2 standards apply to NMHC+ NO x , CO, and PM, whereas the Tier 3 standards apply to NMHC+ NO x and CO. The start dates by hp category and tier are as follows:

hp<25: Tier 1,2000; Tier 2, 2005; no Tier 3 25-50 hp: Tier 1, 1999; Tier 2, 2004; no Tier 3 50-100 hp: Tier 2, 2004; Tier 3, 2008 100-175 hp: Tier 2, 2003; Tier 3, 2007 175-300 hp: Tier 2, 2003; Tier 3, 2006 300-600 hp: Tier 2, 2001, Tier 3, 2006 600-750 hp: Tier 2, 2002; Tier 3, 2006 >750 hp: Tier 2, 2006, no Tier 3 This rule does not apply to marine diesel engines above 50 hp.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 68

Regulation Description
Phase 2: Emission Standards for New Nonroad Nonhandheld Spark Ignition Engines At or Below 19 Kilowatts 64 FR 15207 March 30, 1999 This rule establishes Phase 2 exhaust emission standards for HC+ NO xfor nonroad nonhandheld (NHH) sparkignition engines ≤ 19kW ( ≤ 25hp). The Phase 2 standards for Class I NHH engines (<225cc) become effective on August 1, 2007 (or August 1, 2003 for any engine initially produced on or after that date). The Phase 2 standards for Class II NHH engines ( ≥ 225cc) are phased in from 2001- 2005.
Phase 2: Emission Standards for New Nonroad Spark-Ignition Handheld Engines At or Below 19 Kilowatts and Minor Amendments to Emission Requirements Applicable to Small Spark-Ignition Engines and Marine Spark-Ignition Engines; Final Rule 65 FR 24268 April 25, 2000 This rule establishes Phase 2 exhaust emission standards for HC+ NO x for nonroad handheld (HH) spark-ignition engines ≤ 19kW ( ≤ 25hp). The Phase 2 standards are phased in from 2002-2005 for Class III and Class IV engines and are phased in from 2004-2007 for Class V engines.

Control of Emissions From Nonroad Large Spark-Ignition Engines and Recreational Engines (Marine and Land-Based); Final Rule 67 FR 68241 November 8, 2002 This rule establishes exhaust and evaporative standards for several nonroad categories: 1) Two tiers of emission sta ndards are established for large spark-ignition engines over 19 kW. Tier 1 includes exhaust standards for HC+ NO x and CO and is phased in from 2004-2006. Tier 2 becomes effective in 2007 and includes exhaust standards for HC+ NO x and CO, as along with evaporative controls affecting fuel line permeation, diurnal emissions and running loss emissions. 2) Exhaust and evaporative emission standards are established for recreational vehicles, which include snowmobiles, off-highway motorcycles, and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs). For snowmobiles, HC and CO exhaust standards are phased-in from 2006-2012. For off-highway motorcycles, HC+ NO x and CO exhaust emission standards are phased in from 2006-2007. For ATVs, HC+NO x and CO exhaust emission standards are phased in from 2006-2007. Evaporative emission standards for fuel tank and hose permeation apply to all recreational vehicles beginning in 2008. 3) Exhaust emission standards for HC+ NO x , CO, and PM for recreational marine diesel engines over 50 hp begin in 2006-2009, depending on the engine displacement. These are “Tier 2” equivalent standards.
Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Nonroad Diesel Engines and Fuel; Final Rule (Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Rule – Tier 4) 69 FR 38958 June 29, 2004 This final rule sets Tier 4 exhaust standards for CI engines covering all hp categories (except marine and locomotives), and also regulates nonroad diesel fuel sulfur content. 1) The Tier 4 start dates and pollutants affected vary by hp and tier as follows: hp<25: 2008, PM only 25-50 hp: Tier 4 transitional, 2008, PM only; Tier 4 final, 2013, NMHC+ NO x and PMDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 69

Regulation Description

50-75 hp: Tier 4 transitional, 2008; PM only; Tier 4 final, 2013, NMHC+ NO x and PM 75-175 hp: Tier 4 transitional, 2012, HC, NO x , and PM; Tier 4 final, 2014, HC, NO x ,PM 175-750 hp:Tier 4 transitional, 2011, HC, NO x , and PM; Tier 4 final, 2014, HC, NO x ,PM >750 hp: Tier 4 transitional, 2011, HC, NO x , and PM; Tier 4 final, 2015, HC, NO x ,PM

2) This rule will reduce nonroad diesel fuel sulfur levels in two steps. First, starting in 2007, fuel sulfur levels in nonroad diesel fuel will be limited to a maximum of 500 ppm, the same as for current highway diesel fuel. Second, starting in 2010, fuel sulfur levels in most nonroad diesel fuel will be reduced to 15 ppm.
Control of Emissions From Nonroad Spark-Ignition Engines and Equipment; Final Rule (Bond Rule) 73 FR 59034 October 8, 2008 This rule establishes exhaust and evaporative standards for small SI engines and marine SI engines:

1) Phase 3 HC+ NO x exhaust emission standards are established for Class I NHH engines starting in 2012 and for Class II NHH engines starting in 2011. There are no new exhaust emission standards for handheld engines. New evaporative standards are adopted for both handheld and nonhandheld equipment. The new evaporative standards control fuel tank permeation, fuel hose permeation, and diffusion losses. The evaporative standards begin in 2012 for Class I NHH engines and 2011 for Class II NHH engines. For handheld engines, the evaporative standards are phased-in from 2012-2016.

2) More stringent HC+ NO x and CO standards are established for marine SI PWC/OB engines beginning in 2010. In addition, new exhaust HC+ NO x and CO standards are established for sterndrive and inboard (SD/I) marine SI engines also beginning in 2010. High performance SD/I engines are subject to separate HC+ NO x and CO exhaust standards that are phased-in from 2010-2011. New evaporative standards were also adopted for all marine SI engines that control fuel hose permeation, diurnal emissions, and fuel tank permeation emissions. The hose permeation, diurnal, and tank permeation standards take effect in 2009, 2010, and 2011, respectively.

Source: USEPA 2010cDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 70



## 5.0 MARINE VESSELS, AIRPORTS, AND RAILROADS

5.1 MAR INVENTORY CATEGORIES
This category of sources is coll ectively referred to as the MAR (marine, airports, railroads) sector. It includes nonroa d engines associated with the following activities:

 Marine Vessels - The Commercial Marine Vehicle (CMV) sector includes all boats and ships used either directly or indir ectly in the conduct of commerce or military activity. The majority of these vessels are powered by diesel engi nes that are either fueled with distillate or residual fuel oil blends. For the purpose of this inventory it is assumed that Category 3 vessels prim arily use residual blends, while Category 1 and 2 vessels typically used distillate fuels.

 Airports - The aircraft sector includes all ai rcraft types used for public, private, and military purposes. This includes four t ypes of aircraft 1) Commercial; 2) Air Taxis; 3) General Aviation; and 4) M ilitary. Ground support equipment (GSE) and auxiliary power units (APU ) are also included.

 Railroads - The railroad sector includes ra ilroad locomotives powered by dieselelectric engines. Locomotives are divide d into Class I line ha ul, Class II/III line haul, commuter/passenger and Class I yard.

5.2 2007 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT
The emission projections for the 2025 point source were based on Version 3_3 of the 2007 MANE-VU+VA inventory and are fully docum ented in the TSD for that effort (MARAMA 2012a). There were no adjustment to the 2007 Version 3_3 MAR inventory for this analysis.

5.3 2025 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT
Appendix H contains the data that were used to develop growth and control factors for the commercial marine vessel, air port, and railroad sectors.

5.3.1 Commercial Marine Vessels For the purpose of emission calculations, mari ne vessel engines are divided into three categories based on displacement (swept volume) per cylinder. Category 1 and Category 2 marine diesel engines typically range in size from about 500 to 8,000 kW (700 to 11,000 hp). These engines are used to provide propulsion power on many kinds of vessels including tugboats, pushboats, supply vessels , fishing vessels, a nd other commercialDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 71


### vessels in and around ports. They are also us ed as stand-alone generators for auxiliary electrical power on vessels. Ca tegory 3 marine diesel engine s typically range in size from 2,500 to 70,000 kW (3,000 to 100,000 hp). These are very large marine diesel engines used for propulsion power on ocean-going vessels such as container ships, oil tankers, bulk carriers, and cruise ships.
The majority of marine vessels are powered by diesel engines that are either fueled with distillate or residual fuel oil blends. For th e purpose of emission i nventories, USEPA has assumed that Category 3 vessels primarily use residual blends, while Category 1 and 2 vessels typically use di stillate fuels.
USEPA developed national emission invent ories for Category 1 and 2 vessels and Category 3 vessels for calendar years 2002 throu gh 2040 as part of its effort to develop emission standards for these vessels. The me thodologies used to develop the emission projections (for both a baseline a nd controlled scenario) are do cumented in three regulatory impact assessments (USEPA 2008b, USEPA 2009c, USEPA 2009d). The USEPA data and methodologies from these RIAs were used to develop separate growth and control factors for Category 1 and 2 vessels (diese l) and Category 3 vessels (residual).

5.3.1.1 

### CMV Diesel Growth Factors For Category 1 and 2 diesel vessels, USEPA used projection data for domestic shipping from the AEO2006 (EIA 2006). The annual grow th rate reported in the RIA is 0.9%. More recent growth data for domestic shipping is availabl e in the AEO2010 (EIA 2010). Because Category 1 and 2 vessels primarily acco unt for activity data for ships that carry domestic cargo, we decided to use the recent growth data for domestic shipping available in the AEO2010. We used Table A-7 of th e AEO2010 for domestic sh ipping to calculate the growth factor for 2007-2025 to be 1.064. This growth factor was used for CMV diesel port emissions (SCC 22-80-002-100) and CMV diesel underway emissions (SCC 22-80- 002-200).

5.3.1.2 

### CMV Diesel Control Factors In developing their emission projections, US EPA developed two scenarios that accounted for both the 2004 nonroad diesel rule and th e 2008 diesel marine vessel rule:

 USEPA’s baseline (pre-control) inventory accounted for: 1. the 0.9 percent annual growth in fuel use based on AEO2006, 2. the impact of existing engine regu lations that took effect in 2008, 3. the 2004 Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Rule that will decrease the allowable levels of sulfur in fu el beginning in 2012, and 4. fleet turnover.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 72



###  USEPA’s controlled inventory accounted for:

1. the 0.9 percent annual growth in fuel use based on AEO2006; 2. the reductions included in the baselin e inventory, and the reductions from USEPA’s 2008 rule Final Locomotive-Marine rule for Tier 3 and 4 engines; 3. The 2008 final rule that includes the fi rst-ever national emission standards for existing marine diesel engines, applying to engines larger than 600kW when they are remanufactured. The rule also sets Tier 3 emissions standards for newly-built engines that are phasing in from 2009. Finally, the rule establishes Tier 4 standards for newly-built commercial marine diesel engines above 600kW, phasing in beginning in 2014.
To calculate a control factor that accounts for reductions in cluded in the USEPA controlled inventory, it was necessary to first calculat e a “growth only” scenario applying USEPA’s 0.9 percent annual growth rate to the 2007 ba se emissions. Once the growth rate was applied, then a control factor for each polluta nt was calculated by dividing the future year controlled emissions by the future year “gro wth only” emissions. Exhibit 5.1 shows the control factors for 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2025 for di esel commercial marine vessels.

Exhibit 5.1 CMV Diesel Control Factors by Year and Pollutant

Year NOx PM2.5 SO2 2013 0.787 0.747 0.464 2017 0.642 0.550 0.076 2020 0.537 0.460 0.032 2025 0.401 0.353 0.031

5.3.1.3 

### CMV Residual Oil Growth Factors For Category 3 residual oil vessels, data fr om a USEPA-sponsored study was used to develop an annualized growth f actor of 4.5 percent for the region. A few states considered the growth rate to be extremely high and not reflective of recent economic conditions. Because USEPA’s Category 3 vessel inventory is primarily based on activity data for ships that carry foreign cargo, we decided to use the recent growth data for international shipping available in the AE O2010. We used data from Table A-7 of the AEO2010 for international shipping to calculate the gr owth factor for 2007-2025 to be 0.956. These growth factors were used for CMV residua l oil port emissions (SCC 22-80-003-100) and CMV residual oil underway emissions (SCC 22-80-003-200).Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 73

5.3.1.4 

### CMV Residual Oil Control Factors
On December 22, 2009, USEPA announced final emission standards under the Clean Air Act for new marine diesel engines with per-cylinder displacement at or above 30 liters (called Category 3 marine dies el engines) installed on U.S. -flagged vessels. The final engine standards are equivalent to those adopt ed in the amendments to Annex VI to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (a treaty called "MARPOL"). The emission standards apply in two stages: near-term standards for newlybuilt engines will apply beginning in 2011, a nd long-term standards requiring an 80 percent reduction in NO x 

### will begin in 2016. USEPA also adopted changes to the diesel fuel program to allow for the production and sa le of diesel fuel with no more than 1,000 ppm sulfur for use in Category 3 marine ve ssels. The regulations generally forbid production and sale of fuels with more than 1,000 ppm sulfur for use in most U.S. waters, unless operators achieve equivalent emission reductions in other ways.
On March 26, 2010, the Internat ional Maritime Organization (I MO) officially designated waters off North American coasts as an emi ssions control area (ECA) in which stringent international emission standards will apply to ships. In practice, implementation of the ECA means that ships entering the designated area would need to use compliant fuel for the duration of their voyage th at is within that area, in cluding time in port and voyages whose routes pass through the area without calling on a port. The North American ECA includes waters adjacent the Atlantic extending up to 200 nautical miles from east coast of the US. The quality of fuel that complies wi th the ECA standard will change over time. From the effective date in 2012 until 2015, fuel used by vessels operating in designated areas cannot exceed 1.0 percent sulfur (10,000 ppm). Beginning in 2015, fuel used by vessels operating in these ar eas cannot exceed 0.1 percent sulfur (1000 ppm). Beginning in 2016, NO x 

### after treatment requirements become applicable.

To calculate a control factor that acc ounted for reductions included in the USEPA controlled inventory, it was necessary to first calculate a “growth only” scenario applying USEPA’s 4.5 percent annual growth rate to the 2007 base emi ssions. Once the growth rate was applied, then a control factor for each pollutant was calculated by dividing the future year controlled emissions by the future year “growth only” emissions.

Exhibit 5.2 shows the control factors for 2013, 2017, and 2020 for residual oil commercial marine vessels.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 74


### Exhibit 5.2 CMV Residual Oil Control Factors by Year and Pollutant

Year NOx PM2.5 SO2 2013 0.736 0.353 0.270 2017 0.654 0.216 0.120 2020 0.597 0.137 0.036 2025 0.480 0.137 0.036

5.3.1.5 

### Military Vessels Growth and Control Factors Virginia reported emissions for military vessels , but did not distinguish between diesel or residual fuels. An assumption of “no growth” for military vessel activity and emissions in Virginia was made so that emissions remain at 2007 levels in 2025. Virginia was the only state to report emission from military vessels.

5.3.1.6 

### State-specific CMV Updates for 2025 New Jersey provided updated CMV em ission estimates for 2007, 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2025, and growth and control factors for 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2025. These data were used to replace the emission estimates pr eviously used for the 2007 MANE-VU+VA base year inventory and the MANE-VU+ VA future year inventories.

5.3.2 Airports

Aircraft emissions in the 2007 MANE-VU+VA inve ntory are available on either a countyby-county or airport-by-air port basis for six types of aircraft operations:

 Air carrier operations represent landi ngs and take-offs (LTOs) of commercial aircraft with seating capacity of more than 60 seats;

 Commuter/air taxi operations are one category. Comm uter operations include LTOs by aircraft with 60 or fewer seat s that transport re gional passengers on scheduled commercial flights. Air taxi operations include LTOs by aircraft with 60 or fewer seats conducted on non-sche duled or for-hire flights;

 General aviation represents all civil avia tion LTOs not classified as commercial;

 Military operations represent LTOs by military aircraft;

 Ground Support Equipment (GSE) typically incl udes aircraft refu eling and baggage handling vehicles and equipment, aircraft towing vehicles, and passenger buses;

 Auxiliary power units (APUs) provide power to start the main engines and run the heating, cooling, and ventilation systems prior to starting the main engines.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 75

5.3.2.1 

### Airport Growth Factors Aircraft operations were projected to future years by applying activity growth using data on itinerant (ITN) operations at airports as reported in the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) System for 2009-2030 (FAA 2010). The ITN operations are defined as aircraft take-offs or landings. This information is available for approximately 3300 individual ai rports. Actual LTOs are reported for 2007 and projected LTOs are provided for all years up to 2030.
The data was aggregated and applied at th e county level for the four operation types: commercial, general, air taxi, military. A growth factor was computed for each operation type by dividing future-year ITN by 2007-yearITN. Inventory SCCs were assigned factors based on the operation t ype, as shown in Exhibit 5.3.
Exhibit 5.3 Crosswalk between SCC and FAA Operations Type

SCC SCC Description FAA Operation Type Used for Growth Factor 2265008005 Airport Ground Support Equipment, 4-Stroke Gas Total Itinerant Operations 2267008005 Airport Ground Support Equipment, LPG Total Itinerant Operations 2268008005 Airport Ground Support Equipment, CNG Total Itinerant Operations 2270008000 Airport Ground Support Equipment, Diesel Total Itinerant Operations 2270008005 Airport Ground Support Equipment, Diesel Total Itinerant Operations 2275001000 Aircraft /Military Aircraft /T otal Itinerant Military Operations 2275020000 Aircraft /Commercial Aircraft /Total: All Types Itinerant Air Carrier Operations 2275050000 Aircraft /General Aviation /Total Itinerant General Aviation Operations 2275050011 Aircraft /General Aviation /Pisto n Itinerant General Aviation Operations 2275050012 Aircraft /General Aviation /Turbine Itinerant General Aviation Operations 2275060000 Aircraft /Air Taxi /Total Itinerant Air Taxi Operations 2275060011 Aircraft /Air Taxi /Piston Itinerant Air Taxi Operations 2275060012 Aircraft /Air Taxi /Turbine Itinerant Air Taxi Operations 2275070000 Aircraft /Aircraft Auxiliary Power Units /Total Total Itinerant Operations



### Exhibit 5.4 summarizes the region-wide gr owth factors by FAA operation type. The growth factor for individual airports/countie s may deviate substantially from these regionwide growth factors.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 76



### Exhibit 5.4 Region-wide Growth Fact ors from 2007 by FAA Operations Type

5.3.2.2 

### Aircraft Control Factors

The NO x 

### aircraft engine emissions standa rds adopted by USEPA in November 2005 (USEPA 2005) were reviewed. The standards are equivalent to the NO x 

### emission standards (adopted in 1999 for implementati on beginning in 2004) of the United Nations International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) , and will bring the US aircraft standards into alignment with the international standa rds. The standards a pply to new aircraft engines used on commercial aircraft including small regional jets, single-aisle and twinaisle aircraft, and 747s and larger aircraft. Th e standards also apply to general aviation and military aircraft, which sometimes use commercial engines. For example, small regional jet engines are used in executive general aviation aircraft, and larger commercial aircraft engines may be used in military transport aircraft.
Nearly all previously certified or in-production engine models currently meet or perform better than the standards USEPA adopted in the November 2005 rule. In addition, manufacturers have already been developing improved technology in response to the ICAO standards. According to USEPA’s recen t analysis for the proposed transport rule (USEPA 2010b), this rule is expected to reduce NO x 

### emissions by approximately 2 percent in 2015 and 3 percent in 2020. Because of the relatively small amount of NO x 

### reductions, our aircraft emission proj ections do not account for this control program.

USEPA has also issued an Advance Noti ce of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) on lead emissions from piston-engine aircraft usi ng leaded aviation gasoline (USEPA 2010c). However, this rule has not yet been adopted and co-benefits for criteria air pollutants are likely to be small. Therefore, the effects of this rule were not included in the future-year emissions projections.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 77

5.3.2.3 

### State-specific Airport Updates for 2025 After reviewing the growth factors described in the previous section, Connecticut provided state-specific growth factors for 2025 by S CC and county. These state-specific factors were used instead of the factors described in the previous section.
New Jersey provided updated aircraft growth factors and emission estimates for 2007, 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2025. These data were used to replace the emission estimates previously used for the 2007 MANE-VU+VA base year inventory and the MANEVU+VA future year inventories.

5.3.3 Railroad Locomotives Railroad locomotive engine emissions in the 2007 MARAMA inventory are classified into the following categories:

 Class I line haul locomotives are operate d by large freight railroad companies and are used to power freight train opera tions over long distances (SCC 22-85-002- 006);

 Class II/III line haul locomotives are operated by smaller freight railroad companies and are used to power freight train operations over long distances (SCC 22-85-002-007);

 Inter-city passenger train locomotives are operated primarily by Amtrak to provide inter-city passenger tran sport (SCC 22-85-002-008);

 Independent commuter rail systems operate locomotives that provide passenger transport within a metropolitan area (SCC 22-85-002-009); and

 Yard/switch locomotives are used in freight yards to assemble and disassemble trains, or for short hauls of trains that are made up of only a few cars (SCC 22-85- 002-010).

5.3.3.1 

### Railroad Growth Factors In March 2008, USEPA finalized a three part program that will dramatically reduce emissions from diesel locomotives of all t ypes -- line-haul, switch, and passenger rail. As part of this work USEPA developed a natio nal emission inventory for calendar years 2002 through 2040. Emission projecti ons methodologies for a baselin e and controlled scenario were developed and documented (USEPA 2008b) . USEPA used projection data from the AEO2006 (EIA 2006). Table A-7 of AEO2006 s howed that freight rail energy use will grow 1.6 percent annually.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 78


### More recent growth data is available in the AEO2010 which was published in May 2010. There are separate projections for passenger rail and freight rail energy use. For the MANE VU+VA inventory the more recent AE O2010 growth projections were used.
Passenger rail data from AEO2010 Table A-7 was used to calcul ate the growth factor for 2007-2025 to be 1.241. These growth factors we re applied to inte r-city passenger train locomotives (SCC 22-85-002-008) and independ ent commuter rail systems (SCC 22-85- 002-009).
For freight rail, the data from AEO2010 Table A-7 was used to calculate the growth factor for 2007-2025 to be 1.098. The freight rail annual growth factors for Class I line haul (SCC 22-85-002-006), Class II/III line haul (SCC 22-85-002-007), and yard switch (SCC 22-85-002-010) locomotives were used.

5.3.3.2 

### Railroad Control Factors USEPA developed two scenarios that accounted for both the 2004 nonroad diesel rule and the 2008 diesel locomotive rule:

 USEPA’s baseline (pre-control) inventory accounted for

1. AEO2006 annual growth in fuel use, 2. The impact of existing regulations fo r Tier 0, 1, and 2 locomotive engines that take effect in 2008, 3. The 2004 Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Ru le that will decrease allowable levels of sulfur in locomotiv es fuel beginning in 2012, and 4. Fleet turnover.

 USEPA’s controlled inventory accounted for

1. AEO2006 annual growth in fuel use, 2. Reductions included in the baseline inventory, and 3. Reductions from USEPA’s 2008 rule Fi nal Locomotive-Marine rule for Tier 3 and 4 engines. This rule lowere d diesel sulfur content and tightened emission standards for existing and new locomotives. 4. Voluntary retrofits under the Natio nal Clean Diesel Campaign are not included in our projections.
To calculate a factor that accounted for re ductions included in the USEPA controlled inventory, it was necessary to first calculat e a “growth only” scenario applying USEPA’s 1.6% annual growth rate to the 2006 base emi ssions. Once the growth rate was applied, then a control factor for each pollutant was calculated by dividing the future year controlled emissions by the future year “growth only” emissions.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 79



### Exhibit 5.5 shows the control factors for 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2025 for the five locomotive classifications and pollutants.

5.3.3.3 

### State-specific Railroad Updates for 2025 New Jersey provided updated railroad growth factors, control factors, and emission estimates for 2007, 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2025. These data were used to replace the emission estimates previously used for th e 2007 MANE-VU+VA base year inventory and the MANE-VU+VA future year inventories.
Exhibit 5.5 Rail Control Factors by Year, Pollutant, and SCC

Year NOx PM2.5 SO2

SCC 22-85-002-006 Line Haul Class I Operations
2013 0.771 0.595 0.003 2017 0.633 0.449 0.003 2020 0.547 0.364 0.003 2025 0.412 0.252 0.003 SCC 22-85-002-007 Line Haul Class II / III Operations

2013 1.000 0.829 0.003

2017 0.960 0.791 0.003

2020 0.920 0.752 0.003

2025 0.852 0.688 0.003 SCC 22-85-002-008 Inter-City Passenger

2013 0.571 0.566 0.003

2017 0.421 0.402 0.003

2020 0.340 0.294 0.003

2025 0.241 0.180 0.003
SCC 22-85-002-009 Commuter Rail

2013 0.571 0.566 0.003

2017 0.421 0.402 0.003

2020 0.340 0.294 0.003

2025 0.241 0.180 0.003
SCC 22-85-002-010 Yard / Switch

2013 0.912 0.777 0.003

2017 0.843 0.712 0.003

2020 0.771 0.650 0.003

2025 0.634 0.534 0.003Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 80



## 6.0 ONROAD MOBILE SOURCES INCLUDED IN MOVES

6.1 MOVES MODEL CATEGORIES

USEPA’s MOVES model estimates emissions from vehicles travel such as cars, trucks, buses and motorcycles. These vehicles are powered by diesel, gasoline, and alternative fuel formulations. MOVES2010 includes the ca pability to estimate both vehicle exhaust and evaporative emissions (including vehicle refueling emissions) and brake wear and tire wear emissions for criteria pollutants a nd precursors. However, MOVES2010 does not include the capability to estimate emissions of re-entrained road dust. Estimates of emissions from re-entrained road dust are in cluded in the area source inventory.

6.2 2007 MOVES MODEL INVENTORY
MARAMA provided county-level MOVES resu lts for 2007 for CT, DE, DC, and MD. Other states (NJ, NY, PA, VA) provided resu lts for affected counties in their states.

6.3 2025 MOVES MODEL INVENTORY
MARAMA provided county-level MOVES resu lts for 2025 for CT, DE, DC, and MD. Other states (NJ, NY, PA, VA) provided resu lts for affected counties in their states.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 81



## 7.0 EMISSION SUMMARIES

Exhibits 7.1 to 7.12 summarize PM2.5 and PM precursor emissions by PM nonattainment area and source sector for 2007 and 2025. Some general observations by pollutant include:

 PM2.5 emissions are projection to de crease between 2007and 2025 in all PM nonattainment areas. The reductions are due to the turnover to cleaner onroad vehicles, nonroad engines, and reside ntial wood combustion equipment. The PM2.5 emissions shown account for the applic ation of the PM transport factor (see discussion in Section 2.2.1.1 of this TSD).

 NO x 

### emissions decline in all PM nona ttainment areas between 2007 and 2025 and by more than 50 percent in a few areas. Most of the decline results from the turnover of the onroad vehicle fleet to ve hicles with improved emission controls and fuel efficiency. Reduc tions in nonroad sources are also substantial. Three areas (Baltimore, NY/NJ/CT, and Washingt on DC/MD/VA) also show substantial reductions due to controls on EGUs.

 SO 2 

### emissions decrease in all PM nonatta inment areas. All areas are showing reductions due to the lower sulfur conten ts of fuels used by onroad vehicles and nonroad equipment. Additional reducti ons in areas located in Maryland, New Jersey, and New York are due to the lower sulfur content regulations in those state for home heating, distillate oil, and re sidual oil. Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Pennsylvania, and Virginia did not take credit for any reductions for low sulfur fuel oils si nce they have not adopted the MANE-VU recommendations into their regulations (see discussion in Section 2.3.2.5 of the TSD). Especially large reductions are f ound in areas where controls are projected to be in place on EGUs (Allentown, Baltimore, Harrisburg, Metro New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washingt on DC/MD/VA, and York, PA).
County-by-county emissions for 2007 and 2025 are available on the MARAMA ftp site.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 82


### Exhibit 7.1 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Allentown, PA

Annual Annual Change (tpy) Change (%)

(tons) (tons) from from SECTOR 2007 2025 2007 to 2025 2007 to 2025 Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) Area 1,987 1,936 -51 -2.6% Nonroad MAR 516 277 -239 -46.3% Nonroad NMIM 2,661 1,007 -1,654 -62.1% Onroad MOVES 15,652 4,190 -11,462 -73.2% Point EGU 7,763 5,837 -1,927 -24.8% Point nonEGU 5,900 2,114 -3,786 -64.2% 34,480 15,362 -19,117 -55.4% Direct PM2.5 Area 2,150 1,958 -192 -8.9% Nonroad MAR 26 15 -11 -42.3% Nonroad NMIM 229 113 -117 -51.0% Onroad MOVES 528 190 -338 -64.0% Point EGU 2,264 2,138 -125 -5.5% Point nonEGU 1,301 1,227 -75 -5.7% 6,498 5,640 -858 -13.2% Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Area 2,552 1,118 -1,434 -56.2% Nonroad MAR 12 4 -8 -70.4% Nonroad NMIM 147 4 -143 -97.3% Onroad MOVES 118 43 -75 -63.2% Point EGU 48,203 3,962 -44,241 -91.8% Point nonEGU 5,868 5,875 7 0.1% 56,900 11,005 -45,895 -80.7% Nonroad MAR – includes commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroad locomotives Nonroad NMIM – includes equipment in cluded in USEPA’s NMIM/NONROAD model Onroad MOVES – includes emissions calculated by USEPA’s MOVES modelDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 83


### Exhibit 7.2 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Baltimore, MD

Annual Annual Change (tpy) Change (%)

(tons) (tons) from From SECTOR 2007 2025 2007 to 2025 2007 to 2025 Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx)
Area 4,732 5,167 435 9.2%

Nonroad MAR 16,703 8,521 -8,182 -49.0%

Nonroad NMIM 10,466 4,265 -6,201 -59.2%

Onroad MOVES 43,939 15,900 -28,038 -63.8%

Point EGU 23,572 8,939 -14,634 -62.1%

Point nonEGU 11,981 13,362 1,380 11.5% 111,394 56,154 -55,240 -49.6%
Direct PM2.5

Area 5,004 5,197 193 3.9%

Nonroad MAR 572 201 -371 -64.8%

Nonroad NMIM 969 519 -450 -46.4%

Onroad MOVES 1,503 749 -755 -50.2%

Point EGU 6,677 7,134 456 6.8%

Point nonEGU 2,296 2,366 71 3.1% 17,022 16,166 -855 -5.0% Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)

Area 2,316 315 -2,001 -86.4%

Nonroad MAR 1,803 268 -1,535 -85.1%

Nonroad NMIM 581 15 -566 -97.4%

Onroad MOVES 375 380 5 1.3%

Point EGU 93,665 18,922 -74,744 -79.8%

Point nonEGU 4,759 4,867 108 2.3% 103,499 24,766 -78,733 -76.1%
Nonroad MAR – includes commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroad locomotives Nonroad NMIM – includes equipment in cluded in USEPA’s NMIM/NONROAD model Onroad MOVES – includes emissions calculated by USEPA’s MOVES modelDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 84


### Exhibit 7.3 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Hagerstown Martinsburg, MD-WV

Annual Annual Change (tpy) Change (%)

(tons) (tons) from from SECTOR 2007 2025 2007 to 2025 2007 to 2025 Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) Area 296 339 43 14.5% Nonroad MAR 289 144 -145 -50.2% Nonroad NMIM 793 301 -492 -62.0% Onroad MOVES 5,124 1,966 -3,158 -61.6% Point EGU 1,398 1,390 -8 -0.6% Point nonEGU 1,982 1,518 -465 -23.4% 9,883 5,657 -4,225 -42.8% Direct PM2.5 Area 501 538 37 7.3% Nonroad MAR 10 3 -7 -68.6% Nonroad NMIM 74 33 -41 -55.6% Onroad MOVES 185 69 -117 -62.8% Point EGU 310 299 -11 -3.5% Point nonEGU 188 188 0 0.1% 1,269 1,131 -138 -10.9% Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Area 274 83 -191 -69.7% Nonroad MAR 5 2 -4 -69.4% Nonroad NMIM 45 1 -44 -97.6% Onroad MOVES 44 47 3 6.4% Point EGU 5,536 4,590 -946 -17.1% Point nonEGU 1,277 1,271 -6 -0.5% 7,182 5,993 -1,189 -16.5%
Nonroad MAR – includes commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroad locomotives Nonroad NMIM – includes equipment in cluded in USEPA’s NMIM/NONROAD model Onroad MOVES – includes emissions calculated by USEPA’s MOVES model
Note: only includes emissions for Washington County, MD; emissions for West Virginia portion of the nonattainment area will be provided by Maryland in their SIP submittal.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 85


### Exhibit 7.4 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle-York, PA

Annual Annual Change (tpy) Change (%)

(tons) (tons) from From SECTOR 2007 2025 2007 to 2025 2007 to 2025 Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) Area 3,874 3,705 -169 -4.4% Nonroad MAR 1,775 981 -793 -44.7% Nonroad NMIM 5,329 2,055 -3,274 -61.4% Onroad MOVES 36,440 9,338 -27,102 -74.4% Point EGU 15,985 15,531 -454 -2.8% Point nonEGU 10,965 9,646 -1,319 -12.0% 74,368 41,255 -33,113 -44.5% Direct PM2.5 Area 5,452 5,201 -251 -4.6% Nonroad MAR 74 35 -39 -52.3% Nonroad NMIM 474 211 -263 -55.4% Onroad MOVES 1,225 346 -879 -71.8% Point EGU 2,123 2,060 -63 -3.0% Point nonEGU 923 915 -8 -0.9% 10,272 8,769 -1,503 -14.6% Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Area 4,900 2,763 -2,136 -43.6% Nonroad MAR 30 15 -15 -50.2% Nonroad NMIM 293 8 -285 -97.3% Onroad MOVES 255 89 -165 -64.9% Point EGU 106,189 5,179 -101,010 -95.1% Point nonEGU 11,520 11,539 19 0.2% 123,186 19,593 -103,593 -84.1% Nonroad MAR – includes commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroad locomotives Nonroad NMIM – includes equipment in cluded in USEPA’s NMIM/NONROAD model Onroad MOVES – includes emissions calculated by USEPA’s MOVES modelDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 86


### Exhibit 7.5 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Johnstown, PA

Annual Annual Change (tpy) Change (%)

(tons) (tons) from From SECTOR 2007 2025 2007 to 2025 2007 to 2025 Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx)
Area 861 822 -39 -4.5%

Nonroad MAR 1,132 568 -564 -49.8%

Nonroad NMIM 909 366 -543 -59.7%

Onroad MOVES 6,017 1,217 -4,800 -79.8%

Point EGU 41,440 40,004 -1,435 -3.5%

Point nonEGU 932 1,097 165 17.7% 51,291 44,074 -7,216 -14.1%
Direct PM2.5

Area 1,198 1,114 -84 -7.0%

Nonroad MAR 45 18 -27 -60.6%

Nonroad NMIM 84 36 -48 -56.9%

Onroad MOVES 195 43 -152 -78.2%

Point EGU 2,867 2,768 -99 -3.4%

Point nonEGU 231 234 3 1.4% 4,619 4,212 -407 -8.8% Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)

Area 1,179 593 -586 -49.7%

Nonroad MAR 13 1 -12 -95.9%

Nonroad NMIM 51 1 -50 -97.4%

Onroad MOVES 45 12 -32 -72.3%

Point EGU 143,303 141,481 -1,821 -1.3%

Point nonEGU 30 35 4 14.7% 144,621 142,123 -2,498 -1.7%
Nonroad MAR – includes commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroad locomotives Nonroad NMIM – includes equipment in cluded in USEPA’s NMIM/NONROAD model Onroad MOVES – includes emissions calculated by USEPA’s MOVES model
Note: summary includes emissions for all of Indi ana County; however, only part of the county is in the nonattainment area.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 87


### Exhibit 7.6 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Lancaster, PA

Annual Annual Change (tpy) Change (%)

(tons) (tons) from From SECTOR 2007 2025 2007 to 2025 2007 to 2025 Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) Area 1,827 1,704 -122 -6.7% Nonroad MAR 293 140 -153 -52.1% Nonroad NMIM 2,880 1,170 -1,710 -59.4% Onroad MOVES 14,163 3,779 -10,384 -73.3% Point EGU 0 0 0 0.0% Point nonEGU 1,147 1,383 236 20.5% 20,310 8,177 -12,133 -59.7% Direct PM2.5 Area 1,827 1,704 -122 -6.7% Nonroad MAR 293 140 -153 -52.1% Nonroad NMIM 2,880 1,170 -1,710 -59.4% Onroad MOVES 14,163 3,779 -10,384 -73.3% Point EGU 0 0 0 0.0% Point nonEGU 1,147 1,383 236 20.5% 20,310 8,177 -12,133 -59.7% Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Area 3,030 1,766 -1,264 -41.7% Nonroad MAR 4 0 -3 -87.6% Nonroad NMIM 144 5 -139 -96.8% Onroad MOVES 104 38 -66 -63.4% Point EGU 0 0 0 0.0% Point nonEGU 102 120 18 17.5% 3,384 1,929 -1,454 -43.0% Nonroad MAR – includes commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroad locomotives Nonroad NMIM – includes equipment in cluded in USEPA’s NMIM/NONROAD model Onroad MOVES – includes emissions calculated by USEPA’s MOVES modelDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 88


### Exhibit 7.7 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Metro New York/Nor thern New Jersey/Long Island NY/NJ/CT

Annual Annual Change (tpy) Change (%)

(tons) (tons) from From SECTOR 2007 2025 2007 to 2025 2007 to 2025 Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) Area 64,044 56,873 -7,170 -11.2% Nonroad MAR 46,842 31,820 -15,023 -32.1% Nonroad NMIM 70,841 13,603 -57,238 -80.8% Onroad MOVES 252,723 74,474 -178,249 -70.5% Point EGU 36,928 33.841 -3,087 -8.4% Point nonEGU 20,117 20,881 765 3.8% 491,675 231,660 -260,014 -52.9% Direct PM2.5 Area 18,512 19,318 805 4.4% Nonroad MAR 1,705 755 -950 -55.7% Nonroad NMIM 5,873 1,534 -4,339 -73.9% Onroad MOVES 10,189 4,878 -5,311 -52.1% Point EGU 6,267 4,274 -1,994 -31.8% Point nonEGU 1,530 1,704 174 11.4% 44,131 32,457 -11,674 -26.5% Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Area 42,122 10,353 -31,768 -75.4% Nonroad MAR 11,823 1,957 -9,865 -83.4% Nonroad NMIM 3,720 56 -3664 -98.5% Onroad MOVES 1,750 1,564 -186 -10.6% Point EGU 63,236 44,139 -19,097 -30.2% Point nonEGU 5,293 5,351 59 1.1% 126,427 63,420 -63,005 -43.7% Nonroad MAR – includes commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroad locomotives Nonroad NMIM – includes equipment in cluded in USEPA’s NMIM/NONROAD model Onroad MOVES – includes emissions calculated by USEPA’s MOVES model
Note: 2025 NMIM emissions for New York counties are missing from the above summaries.
Note 2: New Jersey made changes to Point EGU values in this table after AMEC finalized the project. The changes were made by MARAMA.
Note 3: GSE Emissions were removed from 2025 total for consistency.
Note 4: 2007 and 2025 Connecticut NMIM was updated with runs that use Version 3 inputs, including revisions to the Pleasurecraft population file.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 89


### Exhibit 7.8 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Philadelphia-Wilmington, PA/DE/NJ

Annual Annual Change (tpy) Change (%)

(tons) (tons) from From SECTOR 2007 2025 2007 to 2025 2007 to 2025 Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) Area 18,043 17,741 -302 -1.7% Nonroad MAR 12,271 9,357 -2,913 -23.7% Nonroad NMIM 19,579 8,305 -11,274 -57.6% Onroad MOVES 106,315 26,648 -79,668 -74.9% Point EGU 12,616 4,873 -7,743 -61.4% Point nonEGU 19,143 14,944 -4,199 -21.9% 187,967 81,869 -106,099 -56.4%
Direct PM2.5 Area 13,811 12,983 -829 -6.0%
Nonroad MAR 658 299 -360 -54.7% Nonroad NMIM 1,808 1,059 -749 -41.4% Onroad MOVES 3,795 1,443 -2,352 -62.0% Point EGU 1,048 813 -236 -22.5% Point nonEGU 3,524 3,062 -462 -13.1% 24,644 19,657 -4,987 -20.2% Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Area 16,763 9,756 -7,007 -41.8% Nonroad MAR 5,136 677 -4,459 -86.8%
Nonroad NMIM 998 32 -966 -96.7%
Onroad MOVES 773 422 -351 -45.4% Point EGU 20,665 4,563 -16,102 -77.9% Point nonEGU 14,370 8,990 -5,380 -37.4% 58,705 24,440 -34,265 -58.4%
Nonroad MAR – includes commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroad locomotives Nonroad NMIM – includes equipment in cluded in USEPA’s NMIM/NONROAD model Onroad MOVES – includes emissions calculated by USEPA’s MOVES modelDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 90


### Exhibit 7.9 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley, PA

Annual Annual Change (tpy) Change (%)

(tons) (tons) from From SECTOR 2007 2025 2007 to 2025 2007 to 2025 Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) Area 8,608 8,613 5 0.1% Nonroad MAR 14,258 7,116 -7,142 -50.1% Nonroad NMIM 9,827 4,223 -5,605 -57.0% Onroad MOVES 56,652 12,725 -43,927 -77.5% Point EGU 82,657 84,453 1,795 2.2% Point nonEGU 20,217 18,760 -1,456 -7.2% 192,219 135,890 -56,330 -29.3%
Direct PM2.5 Area 7,562 6,835 -728 -9.6%
Nonroad MAR 467 196 -271 -58.1%
Nonroad NMIM 880 432 -448 -50.9% Onroad MOVES 1,905 531 -1,374 -72.1% Point EGU 6,293 6,348 55 0.9% Point nonEGU 5,108 5,109 1 0.0% 22,216 19,450 -2,766 -12.4% Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Area 13,589 10,791 -2,798 -20.6%
Nonroad MAR 260 95 -165 -63.4%
Nonroad NMIM 529 15 -514 -97.2%
Onroad MOVES 419 141 -278 -66.4% Point EGU 429,186 93,130 -336,056 -78.3% Point nonEGU 13,247 13,699 451 3.4% 457,230 117,871 -339,359 -74.2%
Nonroad MAR – includes commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroad locomotives Nonroad NMIM – includes equipment in cluded in USEPA’s NMIM/NONROAD model Onroad MOVES – includes emissions calculated by USEPA’s MOVES model
Note: summary includes emissions for all of A llegheny, Armstrong, Greene and Lawrence counties; however, only parts of those counties are in the nonattainment area.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 91


### Exhibit 7.10 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Reading, PA

Annual Annual Change (tpy) Change (%)

(tons) (tons) from From SECTOR 2007 2025 2007 to 2025 2007 to 2025 Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) Area 1,289 1,114 -175 -13.6% Nonroad MAR 621 307 -314 -50.5% Nonroad NMIM 1,911 696 -1,215 -63.6% Onroad MOVES 11,370 2,831 -8,538 -75.1% Point EGU 2,506 2,432 -74 -2.9% Point nonEGU 3,288 1,919 -1,369 -41.6% 20,983 9,298 -11,685 -55.7% Direct PM2.5 Area 1,859 1,727 -132 -7.1% Nonroad MAR 30 15 -15 -51.5% Nonroad NMIM 161 72 -88 -54.9% Onroad MOVES 379 96 -284 -74.7% Point EGU 947 921 -26 -2.7% Point nonEGU 325 331 6 1.8% 3,701 3,161 -540 -14.6% Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Area 2,389 1,223 -1,166 -48.8% Nonroad MAR 7 1 -7 -92.6% Nonroad NMIM 99 3 -96 -97.1% Onroad MOVES 81 27 -53 -66.3% Point EGU 14,491 13,990 -501 -3.5% Point nonEGU 649 660 11 1.7% 17,716 15,903 -1,812 -10.2% Nonroad MAR – includes commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroad locomotives Nonroad NMIM – includes equipment in cluded in USEPA’s NMIM/NONROAD model Onroad MOVES – includes emissions calculated by USEPA’s MOVES modelDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 92


### Exhibit 7.11 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: Washington DC/MD/VA

Annual Annual Change (tpy) Change (%)

(tons) (tons) from From SECTOR 2007 2025 2007 to 2025 2007 to 2025 Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) Area 8,936 9,342 406 4.5% Nonroad MAR 6,700 6,711 11 0.2% Nonroad NMIM 20,097 8,000 -12,097 -60.2% Onroad MOVES 42,971 14,067 -28,904 -67.3% Point EGU 29,029 13,919 -15,109 -52.0% Point nonEGU 8,826 11,253 2,427 27.5% 116,643 63,295 -53,348 -45.7% Direct PM2.5 Area 9,528 9,725 198 2.1% Nonroad MAR 201 160 -40 -20.2% Nonroad NMIM 2,005 1,110 -895 -44.7% Onroad MOVES 1,467 728 -739 -50.4% Point EGU 4,984 4,996 12 0.2% Point nonEGU 563 594 32 5.6% 18,746 17,316 -1,430 -7.6% Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Area 5,733 3,862 -1,871 -32.6% Nonroad MAR 416 488 72 17.3% Nonroad NMIM 1,233 28 -1,205 -97.8% Onroad MOVES 387 347 -40 -10.4% Point EGU 179,243 24,694 -154,549 -86.2% Point nonEGU 4,206 3,570 -636 -15.1% 191,215 32,990 -158,225 -82.7% Nonroad MAR – includes commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroad locomotives Nonroad NMIM – includes equipment in cluded in USEPA’s NMIM/NONROAD model Onroad MOVES – includes emissions calculated by USEPA’s MOVES model

Note: 2007 and 2025 MOVES onroad emis sions for Virginia counties are missing from the above summaries.
Note2: GSE Emissions were removed from 2025 total for consistency.Documentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 93


### Exhibit 7.12 Comparison of 2007 and 2025 PM2.5 and PM Precursor Emissions Nonattainment Area: York, PA

Annual Annual Change (tpy) Change (%)

(tons) (tons) from From SECTOR 2007 2025 2007 to 2025 2007 to 2025 Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) Area 1,680 1,678 -2 -0.1% Nonroad MAR 198 104 -93 -47.2% Nonroad NMIM 2,463 836 -1,627 -66.1% Onroad MOVES 10,519 2,740 -7,779 -74.0% Point EGU 15,760 15,226 -534 -3.4% Point nonEGU 6,404 6,431 28 0.4% 37,024 27,015 -10,008 -27.0% Direct PM2.5 Area 2,394 2,325 -69 -2.9% Nonroad MAR 13 7 -6 -48.7% Nonroad NMIM 189 77 -112 -59.4% Onroad MOVES 348 121 -227 -65.2% Point EGU 2,098 2,026 -72 -3.4% Point nonEGU 364 365 1 0.3% 5,407 4,921 -486 -9.0% Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Area 1,684 1,059 -625 -37.1% Nonroad MAR 2 0 -2 -88.4% Nonroad NMIM 132 3 -129 -97.5% Onroad MOVES 79 28 -50 -63.8% Point EGU 106,158 5,136 -101,021 -95.2% Point nonEGU 9,743 9,749 6 0.1% 117,798 15,977 -101,821 -86.4% Nonroad MAR – includes commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroad locomotives Nonroad NMIM – includes equipment in cluded in USEPA’s NMIM/NONROAD model Onroad MOVES – includes emissions calculated by USEPA’s MOVES modelDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 94



## 8.0 DELIVERABLES

Files are stored on MARAMA ftp site:

Address: ftp.marama.org Login ID: regionalei
Password: marama2007
Folder: /2025/Final 2025 (Version 3_3)
Exhibit 8.1 lists the file names for all final deliverables.

Exhibit 8.1 Final Deliverables

File Name Description TSD V3_3 MANE-VU 2025 Inventory PM Nonattainment Counties.docx Technical Support Document for 2025 emission inventory for PM nonattainment counties Appendix A1 AEO2010 New England.xls AEO2010 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source for New England Region (CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT) and calculated growth factors Appendix A2 AEO2010 Mid Atlantic.xls AEO2010 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source for Mid-Atlantic Region (NJ, NY, PA) and calculated growth factors Appendix A3 AEO2010 South Atlantic.xls AEO 2010 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source for South Atlantic Region (DC, DE, MD, VA) and calculated growth factors Appendix A4 AEO2011 New England.xls AEO2011 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source for New England Region (CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT) and calculated growth factors Appendix A5 AEO2011 Mid Atlantic.xls AEO2011 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source for Mid-Atlantic Region (NJ, NY, PA) and calculated growth factors Appendix A6 AEO2011 South Atlantic.xls AEO 2011 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source for South Atlantic Region (DC, DE, MD, VA) and calculated growth factors Appendix A7 AEO2010 vs AEO2011 Comparison.docx Technical Memorandum comparing AEO2010 and AEO2011 energy consumption projections Appendix B Population_Factors.xls County -level population growth factors as provided by statesDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 95

File Name Description Appendix C Employment_Factors.xls State-leve l employment growth factors provided by states Appendix D VMT GF Nonattainment Counties.xls County-level VMT for 2007 and 2025

Appendix E EPA2020 Res Wood.xls USEPA grow th factor formulas by SCC for residential wood combustion Appendix F AEO2011-Electricity Generation by EMM.xlsx AEO 2011 Electricity Generation by Electricity Market Module Region and Source, Reference case, and associated growth factors Appendix G UAF NEEDS Control FileMASTER92211.xls State information on future EGU controls and emission rates Appendix H MAR Growth and Control.xls U SEPA and FAA data used to develop growth and control factors for commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroads V3_3 Area_07_25 PM Nonattainment.xlsx County and SCC-level emissions and growth/control factors for area sources
V3_3 EGU_07_25 PM Nonattainment.xlsx Unit level emissions and growth/control factors for EGUs
V3_3 MAR_07_25 PM Nonattainment.xlsx County and SCC-level emissions and growth/control factor s for commercial marine vessels, airports, and railroad locomotives
V3_3 MOVES_07_25 PM Nonattainment.xlsx County level emissions for onroad vehicles included in USEPA’s MOVES model
V3_3 NMIM_07_25 PM Nonattainment.xlsx County and SCC-level emissions for nonroad equipment included in USEPA’s NMIM/NONROAD model
V3_3 NonEGU_07_25 PM Nonattainment.xlsx Unit level emissions and growth/control factors for nonEGUs V3_3 Summaries_ 07_25 PM Nonattainment.xlsx Emission summaries by county and nonattainment areaDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 96



## 9.0 REFERENCES

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EIA 2010 . U.S. Department of Energy, En ergy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook with Proj ections to 2035 (AEO2010) ; DOE/EIA-0383(2010). April 2010. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/pdf/0554(2010).pdf

EIA 2011a . U.S. Department of Energy, En ergy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook with Proj ections to 2035 (AEO2011) ; DOE/EIA-0383(2011). April 2011. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2011).pdf

EIA 2011b . U.S. Department of Energy, En ergy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2035 (AEO 2011) – Table 96 Electri city Generation by Electricity Market Module Re gion and Source, Reference case ; DOE/EIA-0383(2011). April 2011. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2011).pdf

FAA 2010. Federal Aviation Administration. Terminal Area Forecast 2009-2030

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MARAMA 2007. Prepared by MACTEC Federal Progr ams, Inc. for the Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association. Development of Emissions Projections for 2009, 2012, and 2018 for NonEGU Point, Area, and Nonroad Sources in the MANE-VU Region. February 2007. http://www.marama.org/technical- center/emissions-inventory/2002- inventory-and-projecti ons/mane-vu-future-y ear-emissions-inventory

MARAMA 2011a. Prepared by MACTEC Engineeri ng and Consulting, Inc. for the MidAtlantic Regional Air Management Association. Technical Support Document for the Development of the 2007 Emission Inventory for Regional Air Quality Modeling in the Northeast / Mid-Atlantic Region . February 27, 2011.

MARAMA 2011b. Prepared by MACTEC Engineering and Consulting, Inc. for the MidAtlantic Regional Air Management Association. Technical Support Document for theDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 97


### Development of the 2013/2017/2020 Emission In ventories for Regional Air Quality Modeling in the Northeast / Mid-Atlantic Region . February 27, 2011.

MARAMA 2012a. Prepared by AMEC Environment and Infrastructure and SRA International for the Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Manage ment Association. Technical Support Document for the Development of the 2007 Emission Inventory for Regional Air Quality Modeling in the Northeast / Mid-Atlantic Region Version 3_3 . January 23, 2012.

MARAMA 2012b. Prepared by AMEC Environment and Infrastructure and SRA International for the Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Manage ment Association. Technical Support Document for the Development of the 2013/2017/2020 Emission Inventories for Regional Air Quality Modeling in the No rtheast / Mid-Atlantic Region Version 3_3

. January 23, 2012

OTC 2001. Prepared by E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. for the Ozone Transport Commission. Control Measure Development Sup port Analysis of Ozone Transport Commission Model Rules . March 31, 2001. http://www.otcair.org/Document.asp?fview=Report#

OTC 2007. Prepared by MACTEC Federal Prog rams, Inc. for the Ozone Transport Commission. Identification and Evaluation of Ca ndidate Control Measures – Final Technical Support Document. February 28, 2007. http://www.otcair.org/Document.asp?fview=Report#

OTC 2009a. Ozone Transport Commission. Status Report on OTC States’ Efforts to Promulgate Regulations Ba sed on OTC 2001 Model Rules . October 19, 2009. http://www.otcair.org/interest.asp?Fview=stationary

OTC 2009b. Ozone Transport Commission. Status Report on OTC States’ Efforts to Promulgate Regulations Ba sed on OTC 2006 Model Rules . October 19, 2009. http://www.otcair.org/interest.asp?Fview=stationary

USEPA 2004a. E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. fo r the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Crosswalk Between Source Classificati on Code (SCC)and Emission Activity Growth Factors – Final Technical Memorandum. September 9, 2004. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/SCCcrosswalk.pdf

USEPA 2004b. E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. fo r the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Crosswalk Between Standard Industrial Cl assification (SIC) Codes and Emission Activity Growth Factors – Fi nal Technical Memorandum. September 9, 2004. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/SICcrosswalk.pdfDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 98



### USEPA 2004c. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Nonroad Engine Growth Estimates . EPA-420/P-04-08. April 2004. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/nonrdmdl/nonrdmdl2004/420p04008.pdf

USEPA 2005a. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Control of Air Pollution From Aircraft and Aircraft Engines; Emission Standards and Test Procedures: Final Rule. November 17, 2005. http://www.epa.gov/fedrgstr/E PA-AIR/2005/November/Day17/a22704.pdf

USEPA 2007a. U.S. Environmental Protections Agency. Emissions Modeling Clearinghouse - Fugitive Dust Fractions . February 2007. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/dustfractions )

USEPA 2007b. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Guidance for Estimating VOC and NOx Emission Changes from MACT Rules . EPA-457/B-07-001. May 2007. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/ozone/o3i mp8hr/documents/guidance/200705_epa457_b-07- 001_emission_changes_mact_rules.pdf

USEPA 2008a. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Control Techniques Guidelines

. http://www.epa.gov/ttncaaa1/t1ctg.html

USEPA 2008b. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Regulatory Impact Analysis: Control or Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotive Engines and Marine Compression Engines Less than 30 Liters Per Cylinder. EPA420-R-08-001a. May 2008. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420r08001a.pdf

USEPA 2009a. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. National Mobile Inventory Model. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/nmim.htm

USEPA 2009c. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Regulatory Impact Analysis: Control of Emissions of Air Pollution fr om Category 3 Marine Diesel Engines. EPA420-R09-019. December 2009. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/ nonroad/marine/ci/420r09019.pdf

USEPA 2009d. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Proposal to Designate an Emissions Control Area for Nitrogen Oxides, Sulfur Oxides, and Particulate Matter. EPA420-R-09-007. April 2009. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/ nonroad/marine/ci/420r09007- chap2.pdf

USEPA 2010a. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2020 Emissions Data from EPA’s 2005-based V4 Modeling Platform; Projection and Control Factors . Provided by Rich Mason on April 15, 2010. ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4/projection_control_packetsDocumentation for the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM Nonat tainment Counties in the MANE-VU Region January 23, 2012 Page 99



### USEPA 2010b. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Transport Rule Emission Inventories Notice of Data Availability (NODA). Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2009- 0491. October 27, 2010. TR_EI_NODA_releva nt_CoSTpackets_and_inventories.xls ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4/tr_ei_noda

USEPA 2010c. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Lead Emissions from Piston- Engine Aircraft Using Leaded Aviation Gasoline . April 2010. http://www.epa.gov/oms/regs/ nonroad/aviation/420f10013.pdf

USEPA 2011. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Emission Standards Reference Guide. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/standards/index.htm