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Correction wording flood risks for the Netherlands in IPCC 

report

In the 2007 IPCC report by the Working group 2 (Climate change 2007: Impacts, 

adaptation and vulnerability) a mistake has entered the text that was supplied by the 

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, regarding the risks of flooding for the 

Netherlands. In the chapter on Europe, on page 547, it says that 55 per cent of the 

Netherlands is below sea level (‘The Netherlands is an example of a country highly 

susceptible to both sea level rise and river flooding because 55% of its territory is below 

sea level’). This should have read that 55 per cent of the Netherlands is at risk of 

flooding; 26 per cent of the country is below sea level, and 29 per cent is susceptible to 

river flooding. Examples of the latter are the near floodings, in the mid-1990s, of areas 

along the rivers Meuse and Waal – areas that are well above sea level.

The Netherlands is sensitive to climate change. Sea level rise as well as peak river 

discharges require precautionary measures. The incorrect wording in the IPCC report does 

not affect this conclusion. 

Research continuously improves the insights with respect to possible flooding scenarios in 

specific areas (e.g. the project ‘Mapping safety in the Netherlands’ (Veiligheid Nederland 

in Kaart), www.projectvnk.nl). On this subject, the Netherlands Environmental 

Assessment Agency very recently published a study on flood-risk zones within the 

Netherlands’ (Overstromingsrisicozonering in Nederland).

Additional information: map of flood-prone areas

The map shows the areas within the Netherlands that lie below Amsterdam Ordnance 

Datum (NAP), as well as the areas that are susceptible to flooding. Based on the current 

contour map and spatial planning of the Netherlands, we can state that:

1. 26% of the Dutch land surface is below NAP;

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59% of the Dutch land surface (i.e. excluding the Wadden Sea, the IJsselmeer 

and other open waters) is susceptible to flooding. This 59% encompasses the 

areas both within and outside the dyke rings, the so-called ‘river foreland’;

2.

55% of the Dutch land surface is located within the dyke rings, and is protected 

by dunes, dykes, dams and artificial structures

3.

4% of the Dutch land surface is situated outside the dyke rings and, therefore, 

is not protected by dunes, dykes, dams or artificial structures.

4.

These figures have been calculated in a cooperation between the Netherlands 

Environmental Assessment Agency and the Directorate-General for Public Works and 

Water Management. The percentages have been determined using the Geographical 

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Information System (GIS) to calculate the surface areas. The data used in these 

calculations have been obtained from Actueel Hoogtebestand Nederland (a digital contour 

map of current heights of all of the Netherlands) of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public 

Works and Water Management, and have been combined with the land statistics from 

Statistics Netherlands (CBS), and the database on dyke rings of the Directorate-General 

for Public Works and Water Management.

Flooding patterns differ per region

The risk of flooding is not equally divided over the flood-prone areas. The way a flood 

occurs in actual practice, depends on local circumstances and is largely determined by 

differences in height within a certain area, and for instance the presence of secondary 

dykes, construction of roads, and railway lines. Through further research on possible 

flooding scenarios in specific areas, insights into the risks of flooding are increasingly 

gained. In the study ‘The Netherlands in the Future’ (MNP, 2007), regional differences 

between flooding scenarios have already been included in, for example, calculations of 

economic damages and human casualties. On this subject, the Netherlands Environmental 

Assessment Agency very recently published a study on flood-risk zones within the 

Netherlands. 

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