United States 

Department of 

Agriculture

Animal and 

Plant Health 

Inspection 

Service

May 2013

Analysis in Support of Certification that the 

Rule will not have a Significant Economic 

Impact on a Substantial Number of Small 

Entities

Proposed Rule

APHIS 2013-0037

RIN 0579-AD78

Importation of Potatoes from Mexico 

Policy & Program Development

Policy Analysis & Development
i

Summary

This analysis examines the expected economic impact for U.S small entities of a 

proposed rule that would allow the importation of potato tubers (Solanum tuberosum L.) for 

consumption from Mexico into the United States. 

The Small Business Administration’s small-entity standard for U.S. farms that produce 

potato tubers is annual receipts of not more than $750,000. In 2007, the average market value of 

sales by the 15,014 U.S. farms that produced potatoes was about $222,000, well below the smallentity standard. 

In recent years, the United States has shifted from being a net importer to being a net 

exporter of fresh or chilled table potatoes. U.S average annual net supply from 2008 to 2010 

(marketed production plus imports minus exports) was about 16.6 million metric tons (MT). 

Mexico’s average annual exports for the same years totaled about 1,500 MT. Even if all of 

Mexico’s exports were diverted to the United States, they would be equivalent to less than 

one-hundredth of one percent of U.S net supply. Although most potato farms are small, based on

the quantities of table potatoes traded by the two countries and U.S production, this proposed 

rule, if promulgated, will not have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of 

small entities. 
1

Introduction 

APHIS received a request from Mexico to authorize the importation of potato tubers

(Solanum tuberosum L.) for consumption into the United States. Currently, the regulations in 

7 CFR 319.56 do not authorize the importation of potatoes from Mexico. This action proposes to 

allow the importation of potatoes (not seed) under a systems approach. 

In response to Mexico’s request, APHIS produced a pest risk analysis and risk 

management document. The latter identifies the risk mitigation measures expected to prevent the 

introduction of plant pests in the commercial potato shipments. These measures include 

commercial consignments only, production by a grower who is registered in a certification 

program, packing in a registered packinghouse, washing, cleaning, and treatment with a sprout 

inhibitor, external and internal inspections after packing, and certification that consignments of 

potato meet phytosanitary requirements. 

The Regulatory Flexibility Act requires agencies to evaluate the potential effects of their 

proposed and final rules on small business, small organizations and small governmental 

jurisdictions. Section 603 of the Act requires an agency to prepare an initial regulatory

flexibility analysis (IRFA) that describes the expected impact of the rule on small entities and a 

description of any significant alternatives to the proposed rule which accomplish the stated 

objectives of applicable statutes and which minimize any significant economic impact of the 

proposed rule on small entities. In place of the IRFA, the head of the agency may certify that a 

proposed rule will not have a significant economic impact on substantial number of small 

entities. This analysis provides the basis for this certification.

 
2

U.S Potato Production and Trade

Potatoes are the leading vegetable crop in the United States. They are grown year-round, 

with the fall crop comprising roughly 90 percent of production. Unlike most produce crops, 

potatoes are well-suited for long-term storage in climate-controlled rooms or containers. U.S 

table potato production as well as net supply (market production plus imports minus exports) 

over the three-year period, 2008 to 2010, averaged about 16.6 million metric tons (MT) (table1). 

Table 1. U.S potato production, imports, and exports, 2008-2010, metric tons

Production Imports Exports Net Supply 

2008 16,780,595 486,239 279,545 16,987,289

2009 17,005,534 360,430 309,436 17,056,527

2010 15,875,896 346,035 368,657 15,853,274

3-year average 16,554,008 397,568 319,213 16,632,364

Source: NASS Agricultural Statistics. 

Net supply: marketed production plus imports minus exports.

The United States trade in table potatoes in recent years has shifted the country from 

being a net importer to being a net exporter. From 2008 to 2012, on average, the United States 

exported about 363,000 MT of fresh or chilled table potatoes (table 2). In 2012, the quantity of 

potatoes exported by the United States totaled nearly 429,000 MT and imports totaled about 

281,000 MT, yielding net exports of about 148,000 MT. Canada, the principal destination, 

received about 60 percent of U.S. potato exports, followed by Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, and 

Malaysia.
3

Table 2. U.S fresh or chilled potato (except seed) exports and net exports, 2008-2012, metric 

tons

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average

World 279,545 309,436 368,657 428,416 428,917 362,994

Canada 166,355 203,360 224,661 275,101 230,130 219,922

Mexico 49,921 56,105 76,133 65,208 75,247 64,523

Korea South 11,848 8,275 18,535 16,654 17,816 14,626

Taiwan 10,424 8,432 7,761 9,082 17,677 10,675

Malaysia 7,924 4,111 9,620 12,596 17,181 10,286

Rest of the World 7,924 29,153 31,946 49,774 70,864 37,932

Exports minus 

imports (206,694) (50,993) 22,622 15,807 147,731 (14,305)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, as reported by Global Trade Information Services, Inc.

Canada is the main supplier of potatoes to the United States (table 3). The U.S. imports 

decreased from about 486,000 MT in 2008 to about 281,000 MT in 2012.

Table 3. U.S fresh or chilled potato (except seed) imports, 2008-2012, metric tons

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average

World 486,239 360,430 346,035 412,609 281,185 377,299

Canada 486,198 360,313 346,035 412,598 281,174 377,264

Source: Global Trade Atlas

Metric Tons

Potential Impact on Small Entities

Potato production is classified within the North American Industry Classification System

code 111211, for which the Small Business Administration’s small-entity standard is annual 

revenue of not more than $750,000.1 The latest data on the number of farms that produce 

potatoes are found in the 2007 Census of Agriculture, which reports that the average market 

 

1

Small Business Administration Table of Small Business Size Standards 

http://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/files/Size_Standards_Table(1).pdf
4

value of potatoes sold per farm was about $222,000. Clearly, most if not all potato producers are 

small entities. 

Table 4 shows that between 2002 and 2007, the number of farms that harvested potatoes

increased from 9,408 to 15,014, but the total area planted in potatoes decreased from about 

1,266,000 to 1,132,000 acres. In 2007, about 31 percent of the harvested acres were in Idaho.

Table 4. U.S. potato: Number of farms and area harvested in leading States, 2007

and 2002

2007 2002 2007 2002

U.S 15,014 9,408 1,131,963 1,266,087

Pennsylvania 1,258 984 9,690 11,094

North Carolina 1,123 504 14,760 19,500

New York 860 530 18,911 22,094

Idaho 703 818 350,905 364,229

Wisconsin 608 399 63,933 80,332

Michingan 600 395 42,267 45,840

Virginia 596 302 5,408 5,774

Other States 9,266 5,476 626,089 717,224

Source: NASS, Census of Agriculture, 2007 and 2002.

Number of farms Acres 

Mexico’s annual exports of potatoes (not seed) from 2008 to 2010 averaged about 1,500

MT, and were valued at about $724,000. Mexico’s annual imports of potatoes (not seed) for this 

same period averaged about 79,000 MT, valued at about $35.5 million, with essentially all 

imported from the United States. Even if all of Mexico’s table potato exports were diverted to 

the United States, they would be equivalent to less than one-half of one percent of U.S imports, 

and less than one-hundredth of one percent of U.S net supply. The APHIS Administrator has 

determined that this action will not have a significant economic impact on a substantial number 

of small entities.