A Modeling Protocol for the OTC SIP Quality

Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone

 National Ambient Air Quality Standard 

in the Ozone Transport Region

The Modeling Committee of the

Ozone Transport Commission
OTC Modeling Protocol

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 STUDY DESIGN

1.1 Background

1.2 Objectives

1.3 Photochemical Modeling System

1.4 Deliverables

1.5 Schedule

2 MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE

2.1 OTR Oversight Committee

2.2 OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup

2.3 OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup

2.4 OTR Emission Inventory Development Workgroup

2.5 OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup

2.6 OTC Modeling Committee

 

3 OTR MODELING DOMAIN

3.1 Description

3.2 Horizontal Grid Size

3.2 Number of Vertical Layers 

4 OZONE EPISODES

4.1 EPA Episode Selection Criteria

4.2 Proposed Episode Selection Procedure

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5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS

5.1 MM5 Meteorological Fields

5.2 Quality Assurance of MM5 Meteorological Fields

6 BASE CASE EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2002

6.1 2002 Emission Inventories for OTC States

6.2 2002 Emission Inventories for All Other OTR States

 

7 BASE CASE EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2002

7.1 Preparation of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain

7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain

 

8 AIR QUALITY DATA

8.1 Initial conditions

8.2 Boundary conditions

8.3 Ambient Air Quality Data

9 DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES

9.1 Quality Assurance Tests of Input Components

9.2 Diagnostic Tests 

10 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

10.1 Performance Criteria

10.2 Statistical Performance Measures 

11 CAA EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2010 AND 2013

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11.1 CAA Emission Inventories for OTC States for 2010

11.2 CAA Emission Inventories for all other OTR States for 2010

11.3 CAA Emission Inventories for OTC States for 2013

11.4 CAA Emission Inventories for all other OTR States for 2013

12 CAA EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2010 AND 2013 FOR THE OTR DOMAIN

12.1 2010 CAA Emission Input Files for OTR Domain

12.2 2013 CAA Emission Input Files for OTR Domain

13 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY FOR THE OTR DOMAIN

13.1 OTC CALGRID System Screening Runs

13.2 OTC SIP Modeling Platform Runs

13.3 Analysis of Available Air Quality and Emission Databases 

13.4 OTR Domain Ozone Control Strategy

14 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY EMISSION INPUT FILES 

14.1 2010 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for OTR Domain 

14.2 2013 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for OTR Domain

15 OZONE PREDICTIONS FOR 2010 and 2013

15.1 Initial Conditions 

15.2 Boundary conditions 

15.3 CAA Ozone Predictions for 2010 and 2013

15.4 Ozone Control Strategy Predictions for 2010 and 2013

16 DOCUMENTATION REPORT

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17 REFERENCES

APPENDIX A: Work Plan for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality 

 Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air

Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region

APPENDIX B: Workgroups for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality 

 Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air

Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region

APPENDIX C: MOU for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality 

 Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air

Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region

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1 STUDY DESIGN

1.1 Background

Moderate and serious non-attainment areas in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR) are required

to attain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS by 2010 and 2013, respectively. The Ozone Transport

Commission (OTC) has embarked on the task of preparing an SIP ozone modeling system for

exercising photochemical grid model(s) to assess the impact of candidate ozone control

strategies in moderate and serious non-attainment areas in the OTR. The OTC Directors

endorsed the Modeling Protocol for the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System For Assessment of

the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region at the

November 12-13, 2003 Fall meeting of the OTC. 

This modeling protocol outlines procedures to prepare and use the OTC SIP ozone modeling

system to help design an ozone attainment strategy to attain the ozone 8-hour NAAQS in the

OTR. Emission inventories for point, area, on–road and off-road sources of NOx, VOC and CO

will be developed for a base year of 2002. BEIS3 will be used to estimate biogenic emissions.

MM5 will be used at a 12 km grid resolution and, in the photochemical grid model, 4 km grid

cells will be nested in urban areas where appropriate. A model performance evaluation will be

prepared for 2002. If model performance is satisfactory, emission input files reflecting

candidate control strategy scenarios for 2010 and 2013 will be prepared, and 2010 and 2013

ozone levels will be simulated with the modeling system. OTC States with moderate and

serious non-attainment areas will then use these modeling results to help support required

ozone attainment demonstrations.

1.2 Objective

The New York Department of Environmental Conservation has agreed to be the lead

agency 

for developing a SIP quality ozone modeling system for assessing the future year

attainment 

of the ozone 8-hour NAAQS in the OTR. The CMAQ or CAMx model will be used to evaluate

the effectiveness of control strategies in the OTR Modeling Domain. The regulatory objective

will be to design an ozone control strategy that will result in attainment of the 8-hour ozone

NAAQS in moderate non-attainment areas by 2010, and in serious non-attainment areas by

2013.

1.3 Photochemical modeling System

Currently there is no guideline modeling system for demonstrating ozone attainment. The OTC

Modeling Committee in its prior work exercised both CMAQ and CAMx and noticed that even

though these models had performed similarly in estimating ozone on an over-all basis, the level

of agreement between the simulated and measured concentrations varied from good to bad

depending on the model and depending upon the simulation day. So, as part of this protocol,

both models (which continue to be updated by their developers) will be applied for an episode

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that occurred in 2002. Based upon the performance, one of these models would be selected

for further application and use to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed control strategies in the

OTR. The analysis identifying the basis for the selection of the modeling system will be

communicated through the OTC modeling committee. 

The OTC Modeling Committee also examined two emissions processors (EMS2001 and

SMOKE, both using CB4 chemistry ) in its prior work and concluded that there are differences

between them that could be minimized by forcing the models to use a common speciation and

surrogate data base. In the current protocol, we envision the use of both of them in the initial

assessment for an episode in 2002 and then, based upon the best performance, one of these

emission processors would be selected for constructing emission files for the SIP quality ozone

modeling system for the OTR Domain.

1.4 Deliverables

The key deliverables for the SIP quality ozone modeling system for the OTR are listed below. 

• Select Ozone Episodes

• Prepare Meteorological Fields 

• Prepare 2002 Emission Inventories for each OTC State

• Acquire 2002 Emission Inventories for non-OTC States in the OTR Domain 

• Prepare 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain 

• Complete 2002 Model Performance Evaluation for the OTR Domain 

• Prepare 2010 and 2013 CAA Emission Inventories for each OTC State

• Acquire 2013 Emission Inventories for non-OTC States in the OTR Domain 

• Prepare 2010 and 2013 CAA Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain 

• Complete Modeling Runs for 2010 and 2013 CAA Scenarios 

• Design Control Strategy for the OTR Modeling Domain. 

• Prepare 2010 and 2013 Emission Input Files for OTR Control Strategy 

• Complete Modeling Runs for 2010 and 2013 for Control Strategy 

• Complete Evaluation Report for 2010 and 2013 Control Strategy 

 

1.5 Schedule

The schedule for developing the SIP quality modeling system and the assessment of the ozone

NAAQS in the Ozone Transport region is provided in Appendix A.

2 MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE

2.1 OTR Oversight Committee 

OTC Air Directors will serve as the OTR Oversight Committee. The Directors will ensure that 

2002, 2010 and 2013 CAA emission inventories are prepared for each OTC state in the OTR 

domain, and will also be responsible for obtaining emission inventories for OTR states that are 

not members of the OTC. The Directors will oversee the design of ozone control strategies for 

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OTC Modeling Protocol

the OTR, and will make the final decision on any funding needed to develop the OTC SIP

quality 

modeling system. The Directors will review all OTC SIP quality modeling system

documentation 

before it is released to interested parties.

2.2 OTC Modeling Committee

The state members of the OTC Modeling Committee will provide policy and day to day 

technical guidance for the development of the OTC SIP quality modeling system The 

Committee will recommend (to the OTC Air Directors) what tasks need to be funded in order to 

develop the OTC SIP quality modeling system in a timely fashion. 

2.3 OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup

 

The OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup will be responsible for preparing the modeling 

assessment of the ozone NAAQS in the OTR. The Workgroup will be responsible for collecting 

and processing model input data, setting up all model input files, performing model runs, and 

interpreting and documenting the results of the modeling analyses for the OTR domain. 

The Workgroup will prepare and submit all OTC SIP quality modeling system documentation to

the OTC Air Directors. Gopal Sistla, NY DEC will serve as the lead for this group.

2.4 OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup

 

The OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup will be responsible for preparing and assessing 

MM5 meteorological fields for the OTR domain. The OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup 

will work with the OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup to prepare all meteorological input 

files for the OTC SIP quality modeling system. Mike Woodman, MDE, will serve as the lead for 

this group. 

2.5 OTR Emission Inventory Development Workgroup

The OTR Emission Inventory Development Workgroup will be responsible for obtaining or

developing guidance for preparing 2002, 2010 and 2013 state emission inventories for all states

in the OTR. Ray Malenfant, DE DNREC, will serve as the lead for this group. 

2.6 OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup 

The OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup will be responsible for designing an ozone

control strategy for the OTR Domain that will attain the ozone NAAQS by 2010 in moderate

non-attainment areas and 2013 in serious non-attainment areas. The Workgroup will work with

OTR states and the OTC stationary and mobile source committees to design an effective ozone

control strategy for the OTR domain. Jeff Underhill, NH DES, will serve as the lead for this

group.

3 OTR MODELING DOMAIN

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3.1 Description

The modeling domain selected (see Figure 1 (where?)) follows the national grid adopted by the

Regional Planning Organizations (RPOs), but with focus on the eastern U.S. The areal extent of

the domain was selected such that the northeastern areas of Maine are well inside the domain.

Based upon the existing computer resources, the southern and western boundaries were

limited to the region shown in Figure 1. At a horizontal grid resolution of 12 km, it is estimated

that there are 160 grids in the east-west and 150 grids in north-south direction. Depending

upon the need and available resources, a 4 km grid over the selected urban areas could also be

considered in this exercise. 

3.2 Horizontal Grid Size

Following EPA and as noted above, a 12 km grid resolution will be used for most of the domain,

with 4 km grid cells nested in urban areas where appropriate. This is a compromise between a

finer grid mesh, which would offer greater resolution but at higher computational costs. A

coarser mesh may not be appropriate for urban area applications. 

3.3 Number of Vertical Layers 

Similar to the horizontal grid spacing which is fixed by the default set forth in the design of the

meteorological model, in this case 12 km, the definition of the vertical structure could also be

adopted one-to-one of the meteorological model. However, based upon prior experience, the

vertical extent of the model was set around a height of 6 to 8 km. Also, as the number of levels

in the vertical increases, so does the computational time as well as the storage requirements for

the data. On the other hand, limiting the vertical resolution to a few layers would inherently

discard the detailed information provided by the meteorological model. Thus a compromise

solution would be to maintain the high resolution with a one-to-one design of the vertical layers

up to approximately 1 or 2 km yielding around 7 to 10 levels, followed by a collapse of the MM5

upper layers to around 6 to 8 km to form another 6 to 8 levels. Thus, under this scenario there

would be a total of 13 to 18 layers in the vertical with 7 to 10 levels below 2 km and the

remaining between 2 and 8 km. It should be noted that the mid-point of layer 1 in this analysis

is around 10 m.

 

4 OZONE EPISODES 

4.1 Episode Selection Criteria

Since it would be impractical to model every violation day, EPA has recommended targeting a

select group of episode days for ozone attainment demonstrations. Such episode days should

be (1) meteorologically representative of typical high ozone exceedance days in the domain,

and (2) so severe that any control strategies predicted to attain the ozone NAAQS for that

episode day would also result in attainment for all other exceedance days. 

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4.2 Proposed Episode Selection Procedure

While the above suggested approach is perhaps feasible for isolated urban areas, such an

approach may not be meaningful given the areal extent of concern and the modeling domain.

Also, selection of episodes from different years would require the generation of the

meteorological fields and emissions database, which would be an extremely difficult proposition

given the modeling domain. A major portion of the ozone season of 2002 will be simulated with

the OTC SIP modeling system. The 2002 ozone season had significant number of high

exceedance days (the spatial distribution of the daily 1-hr and 8-hr maxima over the eastern U.

S. can be examined at the site ftp://www.dec.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/htdocs/index.html). 

It is anticipated that the total number of days examined under this approach would far exceed

the recommended two or three episodes, and would also provide for better assessment of the

simulated pollutant fields. EPA has also recommended using 2002 as the base year for the SIP

emission inventory.

5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS

5.1 MM5 Meteorological Fields

The MM5 setup has been described by Zhang (2000) for generating meteorological fields that

are to be based on modified Blackadar scheme for the boundary layer. Since there are a

variety of options that can be exercised in the application of MM5, initial testing will be

performed for a high ozone event of 2002 with the most commonly used default options as well

as with modified boundary layer schemes. It is anticipated that these MM5 simulations will be

able to define the set of options which will be used to develop the remainder of the simulation

period. Details of these experiments and results will be posted on the web site as well as will be

presented at the appropriate venues. 

5.2 Quality Assurance of Meteorological Fields

As a part of this effort, the simulated meteorological fields will be compared to data collected

under CASTNET. Prior experience has shown that this approach provides for an independent

assessment of the simulated meteorological conditions. Also, data from any other special

measurements will be sought and compared. This analysis should provide a degree of

confidence in the simulated meteorological fields and their use in photochemical grid modeling.

This work will be coordinated through the meteorological model work group.

6 BASE CASE EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2002

6.1 2002 Base Case Emission Inventories for OTC states

Each state in the OTR Domain will prepare a 2002 base year Emission Inventory that include

VOC, NOx, and CO for a typical ozone summer day. States are to follow EPA guidance

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OTC Modeling Protocol

documents for this base year inventory which is due to EPA by June 1, 2004. Note this

inventory may also be qualified as the consolidated emissions regulatory report (CERR).

All emission categories will be estimated for each county and state and the seasonal factors will

facilitate spatial and temporal adjustments for modeling. Point and area source data will be

submitted by individual states to EPA for uploading to EPA's National Emission Inventory (NEI)

database using the required EPA format. MOBILE6.2 input files and VMT data will be

submitted to NEI so that EPA can generate on-road mobile emissions for each state by county

in a format that can be easily gridded and speciated. Similarly, off-road input files will be sent to

EPA for running the latest NONROAD model. Biogenic emissions will be estimated with EPA’s

BEIS-3 emissions model. 

It is anticipated that these inventories developed by the states will follow the EPA prescribed

approach and should be formatted in a consistent manner. While this protocol is to deal with

the 8-hr ozone issues, the inventory would also contain the necessary information for exercising

the particulate option of the photochemical model. This would be of help in those cases where

the one-atmosphere option is to be exercised in the assessment. Biogenic emissions will be

estimated with EPA’s BEIS-3 emissions model

6.1 2002 Base Case Emission Inventories for All Other States in the OTR

A 2002 base year emission inventory that include VOC, NOx, and CO for a typical ozone

summer day will be obtained for all non-OTC states in the OTR. It is anticipated that these

inventories will be developed following EPA guidance, and will be formatted in a consistent

manner. 

 

7 BASE CASE EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2002

7.1 Preparation of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain

Emissions data will be processed using EMS95/EMS2000, and SMOKE. The surrogate data

files for the OTR grid have been previously developed by NY DEC and will be used in this

study. For those pollutants that depend upon ambient temperature, MM5 layer-1 gridded

temperature fields will be used. 

7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain

The processing of the emissions data will be accompanied with several quality checks before

the data are exercised in the simulations. Prior experiences have shown that considerable time

and resources are often invested in developing the gridded emissions data. While there are

many avenues to improve or correct the data, based upon consensus of the OTC

Photochemical Modeling Workgroup, a definite closure of the emissions processing will be

adhered to and any further changes or corrections will be archived and incorporated at a later

date. In performing this work close attention will be paid to the emissions within the OTR and, if

necessary, corrections will be incorporated on the advice of the OTC Photochemical Modeling

Workgroup

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Hourly plume heights will be calculated and emissions from sources with plume heights below

the top of the first layer will be assigned to the appropriate 5 by 5 kilometer surface grid cell.

Emissions from sources with plume heights above the top of the first layer will be assigned to

the appropriate grid cell in the second layer. 

Biogenic emissions will be prepared for each episode day using BEIS-3. The temperature data

from MM5 layer-1 will be used along with cloud cover information obtained from MM5.

8 AIR QUALITY DATA

7.1 Initial conditions

Prior experiences have shown that a 3-day ramp-up period is sufficient to establish pollutant

levels that are encountered in the beginning of the ozone episode. The initial conditions at the

startup would be for “clean” conditions.

7.2 Boundary conditions

In prior studies attempts have been made to include any information that is available from

ozonesonde and from monitors that are near the western and northern boundaries of the

modeling domain. For this study, similar attempts will be made to obtain pollutant data at the

boundaries. In the absence of reliable boundary condition data, “clean “ conditions will be

assumed for boundary conditions. 

7.3 Ambient Air Quality Data

Ambient air quality data will be extracted from the EPA AQS archive for ozone, CO, NOx, and

total and speciated hydrocarbons reported as part of the PAMS network. Also, data from

CASTNET will be obtained. Since the OTR modeling domain extends over two time zones,

while the model simulations are reflective of a single time zone, EST, there will be a need to

”correct” the clock and assemble the ambient air quality database. Any special measurements

that are relevant to this study during the summer of 2002 will also be acquired, including upper

air measurements.

9 DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES

9.1 Quality Assurance Tests of Input Components

Before proceeding with modeling, all air quality, emissions, and meteorological data will 

be reviewed to ensure completeness, accuracy, and consistency. Any errors, missing 

data or inconsistencies, will be addressed using appropriate methods that are consistent with

standard practices. 

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9.2 Diagnostic Tests 

Attempts will be made to do diagnostic testing, to ensure that the simulated ozone patterns are

in agreement with the measurements over the entire simulation period. While it is unrealistic to

expect day-to-day agreement between the measured and predicted data, close attention will be

paid to the changes in pattern of the measured ozone levels and the ability of the model to

capture such changes. 

10 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

10.1 Performance Criteria

This is an area that will likely require substantial dialog among member states. While there are

many statistical tests that can be applied, it is important to define a priori some of the conditions

of the analysis and the targets of evaluation. Also, it is quite critical to define the areal extent

for which the assessment needs to be done to address the performance of the model. A

"strawman" outlining the procedures will be developed for the model performance evaluation.

The strawman could have 3 or 4 levels of tests covering all or portions of the domain using daily

maximum, daily average, daytime average, 8-hour maxima, and other combinations of ozone

concentrations to assess the model performance. Similarly, the statistical tests are to be

applied to the precursor data as well, recognizing that all tests applied to the ozone data may or

may not be valid. Thus, it is suggested that the statistical tests be geared appropriately based

on the quality and quantity of the database. 

As part of the model assessment, qualitative analysis will also be performed by comparing

predicted and measured pollutant fields to establish if the spatial patterns are captured by the

modeling system. This is a critical step, since the measured concentrations may fall into a

neighboring grid cell (but not at the measured location itself) and may be found to be in good

agreement. 

Another area that is quite important is the predictive ability of the model with respect to height.

Recognizing that the pollutants trapped above the mixed layer during the overnight hours would

mix down during the daytime, comparison will be made between measurements and model

predictions. Also, as noted in the work plan, special attention will be paid to elevated

monitoring stations, such as the television tower near Durham, North Carolina; and the Sears

Tower in Chicago, Illinois, and any other special monitors.

10.2 Statistical Performance Measures 

The recommended EPA procedures will be used to calculate the recommended performance

measures. At a minimum, the following three statistical performance measures will be used to

assess CAMx model performance for each episode.

• Unpaired highest-prediction accuracy 

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 This measure quantifies the difference between the highest observed eight hour 

 value in the domain and the highest predicted value in the domain. The acceptable

performance range is plus or minus 15-20 percent.

 

• Normalized bias 

 This measure indicates the degree to which simulated eight hour values are over or 

 under-predicted. The acceptable performance range is plus or minus 5-15 percent.

• Gross error of all pairs above 40 ppb 

 This measure indicates the average discrepancy between predicted and observed 

 values and provides an overall assessment of model performance. The 

 acceptable performance range is 30-35 percent.

11 CAA EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2010 AND 2013

11.1 CAA Emission Inventories for OTC States for 2010

Each OTC state in the OTR Domain will prepare a 2010 CAA emission inventory that is

consistent with the regulations and rules adopted or expected to be in-place. The inventory will

be developed consistent with EPA guidance. The states will develop the information on growth

factors and controls used in the development of the inventory. Each state will submit a report

on the development of these future year inventories.

Since the electric energy generation and use are highly inter-connected, coupled with the

existing rules on trading and banking of pollutants, it is expected that an inventory consistent

with this information would be developed for all electric energy generation units using models

such as IPM.

Recognizing that any prediction of future emissions are subject to changes, the OTC Modeling

Committee would develop a decision framework on obtaining these emissions to be consistent

with the OTC SIP quality modeling system schedule (Appendix A).

11.2 CAA Emission Inventories for all other OTR States for 2010

A 2010 CAA emission inventory that includes VOC, NOx, and CO for a typical ozone summer

day will be obtained for all non-OTC states in the OTR. It is anticipated that these inventories

will be developed following EPA guidance, and will be formatted in a consistent manner

11.3 CAA Emission Inventories for OTC States for 2013

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Each OTC state in the OTR Domain will prepare a 2013 CAA emission inventory that is

consistent with the regulations and rules adopted or expected to be in-place. The inventory will

be developed consistent with EPA guidance. The states will develop the information on growth

factors and controls used in the development of the inventory. Each state will submit a report

on the development of these future year inventories.

Since the electric energy generation and use are highly inter-connected, coupled with the

existing rules on trading and banking of pollutants, it is expected that an inventory consistent

with this information will be developed for all electric energy generation units using models such

as IPM.

11.4 CAA Emission Inventories for All Other states for 2013

A 2013 CAA emission inventory that includes VOC, NOx, and CO for a typical ozone summer

day will be obtained for all non-OTC states in the OTR. It is anticipated that these inventories

will be developed following EPA guidance, and will be formatted in a consistent manner 

12 CAA EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2010 AND 2013 FOR THE OTR DOMAIN

12.1 CAA Emission Input Files for OTR Domain for 2010

2010 CAA emissions data will be processed using EMS2001 and/or SMOKE. For those

pollutants that depend upon ambient temperature, MM5 layer-1 gridded temperature fields will

be used to estimate hourly emission rates. The biogenic emission input files prepared for the

base 2002 will be used as a surrogate for 2010 biogenic emissions. The processing of the

emissions data will be accompanied with the quality assurance checks previously described in 

section 7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain.

12.2 CAA Emission Input Files for OTR Domain for 2013

2013 CAA emissions data will be processed using EMS2001 and/or SMOKE. For those

pollutants that depend upon ambient temperature, MM5 layer-1 gridded temperature fields will

be used to estimate hourly emission rates. The biogenic emission input files prepared for the

base 2002 will be used as a surrogate for 2013 biogenic emissions. The processing of the

emissions data will be accompanied with the quality assurance checks previously described in

Section 7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain.

13 OTR DOMAIN OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY 

13.1 OTC CALGRID System Screening Runs

A series of CALGRID screening runs will be performed to investigate the level of emissions

reductions needed both within and outside of the OTR. This will help to identify potential

emission reductions scenarios that can be used to lower ozone levels in the OTR.

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13.2 OTC SIP Modeling Platform Runs

OTC SIP modeling platform CAA runs for 2010 and 2013 will be reviewed to help determine the

level of emissions reductions needed to attain the ozone NAAQS. VOC and NOX sensitivity

runs will also be performed to help identify potential emission reductions scenarios that can be

used to lower ozone levels in the OTR.

13.3 Analysis of Available Air Quality and Emission Databases 

A review of air quality and emission databases (for example, EPA Clear Skies and Transport

Rule emission files) will be performed to help identify potential source sectors of ozone

precursors. Analysis of available EPA modeling results will also be performed to help identify

potential source sectors of ozone precursors in, and upwind, of the OTR domain.

13.4 Ozone Control Strategy for the OTR Domain

The OTR Control Strategy Development Team will review CALGRID results, other available

databases, and EPA databases, to help identify potential control programs. The Team will work

with OTR states and the OTC stationary, area and mobile source committees to design ozone

control strategies for the OTR Domain with the goal of meeting regulatory target dates.

14 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY EMISSION INPUT FILES

14.1 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain for 2010

Emissions files for the selected ozone control strategy for the OTR Domain for 2010 will be

prepared in a consistent manner as per schedule. If necessary, additional IPM simulations may

be performed to obtain EGU emission estimates. 

14.2 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain for 2013

Emissions files for the selected ozone control strategy for the OTR Domain for 2013 will

prepared in a consistent manner as per schedule. If necessary, additional IPM simulations may

be performed to obtain EGU emission estimates. 

 

15 OZONE PREDICTIONS FOR ATTAINMENT IN 2010 and 2013

15.1 Initial Conditions 

The initial conditions at the startup will be for “clean” conditions. The OTR Modeling Team will

use the 2002 initial condition files as a surrogate for initial conditions in 2010.

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15.2 Boundary conditions 

EPA will be consulted for guidance in estimating boundary conditions for 2010 and 2013 or

under default would utilize those adapted for the Base 2002 base year simulation. 

15.3 CAA Ozone Predictions for 2010 and 2013

The model will be run with the CAA emission files developed for 2010 and 2013. Tile plots, 

difference plots and model statistics will be prepared to help characterize the extent of 

any remaining non-attainment areas predicted in the OTR in 2010 and 2013. 

15.4 Ozone Control Strategy Ozone Predictions for 2010 and 2013

The model will be run with OTR control strategy emission files prepared for 2010 and 2013.

Tile plots, difference plots and model statistics will be prepared to help characterize the extent

of any 

remaining non-attainment areas predicted in the OTR for the year 2010 and 2013.

16 DOCUMENTATION

A report titled “Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards in the Ozone

Transport Region will be prepared by the OTR Modeling Team. The report would cover model

performance evaluation, and an evaluation of the OTR control strategy runs for 2010 and 2013.

This technical document will be made available to all interested parties and will be used by the

member States in their SIP submission documentation as needed.

17 REFERENCES

Wick Havens (2000): Development of an Emissions Inventory for Regional/Urban-scale

Modeling, MARAMA-RTC (see http://www.marama.org/).

Gopal Sistla (1999): Development of a surrogate database for use in Regional/Urban-scale

Modeling at 4 km spatial resolution (see http://envpro.ncsc.org/emcenter/).

Dalin Zhang (2000): Development of meteorological database for summer 1997 using MM5 at

12 km resolution in Photochemical Model Simulations.

17
Appendix A

Work plan for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System†

Revised by S.Dennis and Gopal Sistla May 25, 2005

†

 To be used as needed for Ozone SIPs in the OTR. Based on EPA draft guidance, Ozone SIPs expected submission by April 2007.

Task

No. Activity or Task

Initial

Target

Date

Organization(s)

Performing Task

Status Notes and Revised Anticipated

Completion Dates (See any footnotes for

any additional discussion)

Modeling

12

13

14

15

Complete 2002 model performance evaluation for OTR

Domain.

Test model sensitivity to NOx, VOC reductions and

potential control measure options.

Complete modeling runs for 2009 CAA scenarios.

Complete modeling runs for 2009 OTR control strategy

Jun 05

Sep 05

Jan 06

Jan 06

NY

NY

NY

NY

36 and 12 km grid CMAQ modeling on-going

OTR Control Strategy Development

16

17

18

Perform screening runs with OTC CALGRID modeling

system

Review air quality and emission databases to help

identify potential sources of ozone in the OTR.

Design Control Strategy for the OTR Domain 

Mar 05

Jul 05

Sep 05

OTR Control Strategy

Development Workgroup

OTR Control Strategy

Development Workgroup

OTR Control Strategy

Development Workgroup

Reports

19 Complete technical support documents presenting

regional OTR modeling and air quality/emission

database analyses. (These two documents will provide

technical support for state ozone SIPs. 

Jun 06 NY, other OTC states? This will allow states nine months to prepare

SIP revisions due in April 2007.

Management

20

21

Day-to-day management and coordination.

Provide direction, oversight, and obtain any necessary

funding. 

on-going

on-going

OTC Modeling

Committee

OTC Air Directors 

Attachment 3
Task

No. Activity or Task

Initial

Target

Date

Organization(s)

Performing Task

Remarks and Status Notes and Revised

Anticipated Completion Dates (See

Initial Planning footnotes for details)

1 Prepare a Work plan and a Modeling Protocol for the

development of the OTC SIP quality modeling system to address

ozone non-attainment problems in the OTR.

Nov 03 NY, MA Completed

Meteorology

2

3

4

Complete MM5 modeling for 2002 (May thru Sep)

Episode evaluation and assessment

Evaluate MM5 data and process for photochemical models.

Dec 04

Dec 04

Dec 04

MD (UMCP), NY

Contract Support

MD (UMCP), NY

In progress

In progress

Inn progress

Emissions Inventories

5

6

7

8

Prepare 2002 emission inventories for MANEVU states in

the OTR Domain.

Obtain 2002 emission inventories for non-MANEVU states

in the OTR Domain.

Prepare 2009 CAA emission inventories for MANEVU

states in the OTR Domain.

Obtain 2009 CAA emission inventories for non-MANEVU

states in the OTR Domain.

Jan 05 

Jan 05

Aug 05

Aug 05

MARAMA

MARAMA

MARAMA

MARAMA

Completed 

Completed 

Emission Input files

9

10

11

Prepare 2002 emission files for the OTR domain with

SMOKE and /or EMS2001, and QA emissions data.

Prepare 2009 CAA emission files for the OTR domain with

SMOKE and /or EMS2001, and QA emissions data.

Prepare 2009 emission files for OTR control strategy with

SMOKE and /or EMS2001, and QA emissions data.

Nov 04

Nov 05

Nov 05

NY

NY 

NY 

Completed