p.1 

OAR Box 1828 

Prepped by Ollie Stewart 

Document Number: 

150) ll-K- (B) -149 

Docket Number: 

A-83-27 

Printed 11/12/2008 11:12:53 AM Sheet 150 of 325 
EMER&YAND EwvmoixiMEiNiTAL ANALYSIS, EVC. 

P.2 

1 

1655 NORTH PORT MYER DRIVE ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA 22209 703/528-1900 

August 21, 1984 

A-83-27 

II-K-CBO-149 

Mr. Robert Short 

Economic Analysis Branch 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Mail Drop-12 

Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 

Subject: EPA Contract No. 68-02-3564, Work Assignment #19 

1995 IFCAM Runs 

Dear Robert: 

Attached are sunmary tables which compare 1990 national results 

from some of the fifth round S02 NSPS IFCAM runs with comparable model 

runs using 1995 fuel prices. Tne boiler populations have been assumed 

to be identical. The 1990 results are based on a 1987-2001 fuel price 

forecast. The 1995 results are based on a 1992-2006 fuel price forecast. 

The 1990 results presented in Tables 1 and 2 are consistent with 

results presented in Table 2 of my letter to you dated August 6, 1984. 

There is more coal in the 1995 results than in the 1990 results for 

the regulatory baseline (see Table 1 attached) because the fuel price 

differences (coal versus oil/gas) are larger in 1995. 

The 1995 national impacts presented in Table 2 are larger than the 

1990 impacts. However, the 1995 impacts are not appreciably larger in 

many cases. 

If you have any questions, please call me. 

Sincerely, 

Tim Hogan if 

TH/ce 

Enclosures 

cc: Dr. A. Wehe 

MANAGEMENT / ECONOMICS / ENGINEERING 
TABLE 1. COMPARISON OF THE PROJECTED FUEL MIX 

IN NEW INDUSTRIAL BOILERS3 

(IO12 Btu) 

P.3 

Regulatory 

alternative 

Baseline 

Scrubbing/ . 

Isc, Isr ex. 

Scrubbing0 

Year/fuel type 

1990 

1995 

1990 

1995 

1990 

1995 

gas 

resid 

coal 

gas 

resid 

coal 

gas 

resid 

coal 

gas 

resid 

coal 

gas 

resid 

coal 

gas 

resid 

coal 

Boi 

100-150 

26 

99 

4 

17 

95 

17 

56 

70 

3 

38 

75 

16 

71 

57 

1 

53 

70 

6 

ler size 

150-200 

24 

86 

1 

14 

86 

11 

50 

60 

1 

26 

76 

9 

54 

57 

0 

34 

75 

2 

(MMBtu/hr) 

200-250 

15 

46 

6 

6 

33 

28 

33 

34 

0 

14 

38 

15 

34 

33 

0 

14 

50 

3 

>250 

87 

92 

13 

54 

40 

97 

87 

92 

13 

54 

40 

97 

107 

59 

26 

98 

27 

66 

Reference Case fuel prices. 

DFifth round S02 NSPS analysis, Option Case 1(50/1.2), 1.2 1 

exemption, 0.8 lb S02/MMBtu resid exemption. Regulatory alternative 4 

Tables 1 and 2 of the August 6, 1984 correspondence. 

lb S0o/MMBtu coal 

in 

"Fifth round S02 NSPS analysis, Option Case 0(50), ho low sulfur coal exemption, 0.3 lb S02/MMBtu resid exemption. Regulatory alternative 8 in 

Tables 1 and 2 of the August 6, 1984 correspondence. 
<-" ' 

TABLE 2. COMPARISON OF PROJECTED NATIONAL IMPACTS 

OF ALTERNATIVE S09 NSPS 

FOR INDUSTRIAL FOSSIL FUEL-FIRED BOILERS 

(Reference case fuel prices) 

P.4 

Regulatory 

alternative 

Scrubbing/ 

Isc, Isr ex. 

Scrubbing0 

Units/year 

S02 emission red.3 

(IO3 short tons) 

1990 

1995 

Ann. cost increase3 

(IO6 $ 1982) 

1990 

1995 

S02 emission red.3 

(IO3 short tons) 

1990 

1995 

Ann. cost increase3 

(IO6 $ 1982) 

1990 

1995 

100-150 

76.9 

78.5 

25.3 

34.8 

85.4 

86.8 

40.2 

54.2 

Boiler size 

150-200 

57.7 

60.7 

20.8 

27.5 

60.4 

64.2 

30.9 

38.6 

(MMBtu/hr) 

200-250 

38.4 

62.1 

10.3 

14.2 

39.6 

64.1 

13.4 

18.5 

>250 

0.5 

0.6 

-0.2 

0.2 

21.0 

34.9 

34.7 

36.7 

Option Case less Base Case. 

DFifth round S02 NSPS analysis, Option Case 1(50/1.2), 1.2 lb S02/MMBtu coal 

exemption, 0.8 lb S02/MMBtu resid exemption. Regulatory alternative 4 in 

Tables 1 and 2 of the August 6, 1984 correspondence. 

"Fifth round S02 NSPS analysis, Option Case 0(50), no low sulfur coal exemption, 0.3 ID S02/MMBtu resid exemption. Regulatory alternative 8 in 

Tables 1 and 2 of the August 6, 1984 correspondence.