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Number: 

# 247 ) ll-F-3 7 Docket Number: 

# A-90-3 7

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PM Sheet 247 of 250P. 2 

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OFFIC E o r MANAGEMEN

T AN DBUDGE T OFFIC E O F INFORMATIO N AN DREGULATOR

YAFFAIR S

DAT E TO : 

# . 9/l22 , 6ENDER S 

# AL .OM^/LCS 

# Cru.nplzr' AGENCY : PROM : 

# •BPAXNO .ITZ__________i RECIPIEN T RECIPIEN T TELEPHON E NO. I TOTA L NUMBE RO P PACE S XNCLUDZN O COVERSBEET t

NOT E 1 Z P YO UD O NO T RECEIVE AL L A S POSSIBLE . VERIFICATIO

N NO. I 202-J&5-7J4 0 OZR A PA XNO. I 202-315-728 5 TH E PAGES , *PLEAS 8 CAL L A S 80O NP. 3

• • • . 9 0 . . section-51.166(b)(21)(v) . Eve n afte r thi s time period , th e permittin g authorit yma ystill-consider , whethe r a n increas e thk t occur s i s "caused " b yth e chang e an

d thu s result s i n a n emission s increas e subjectin g th e origina l chang e t o majo r NSR . Se e 5 7 FR 323,2,6 . Therefore , EP Asolicit s commen t o n th e adequac yb f ai d thes e safeguard s .an d whethe r the .future-actua l methodologysh o b e expande d t o al l sourc e categoriesaor . eliminated , entirely- ; • A **•<*) 3 . Issues . Regardin g Th e Future-Actua l Methodology. Th e EP Aals o seek s commen t o n tw o additiona l specifi c part s o f th e WEPC O rule ^ First , th e EP Asolicit s commen t o n whether , a •deman d growt hexclusio n shoul d b e included , wit h o r withou t changes , i f EP Aadopt s an actual-to-future-actua l methodologyfo r some.o r al l sourc e categories . Second , the EPAsolicit s commen t o n whethe r th e 5 yea r reporting provisio n i s workin g a s intende d and whether

- i t shoul d b e change d i n an yway . A s discussed , th e WEPCO.rul e require s th e permittin g authority , t o exclud e fromthe post-chang e emission s estimate , an y increas e i n utilizatio n tha t i s unrelate d t o th e particular

change , "including an yincrease d utilizatio n du e t o th e rat e o: f electricit ydemand growt hfo r th e utilit ysystema s a whole. " Whil e thi s provisio n "doe s no t amoun t t o a pe r s e exclusio n of ' demand growt hfro

m th e emission s increas e calculation " (5 7 FR 3232.7 ) , i t ma ycreat e confusio n outsid e the utilit yare a • as . t o whe n demand growt hincrease s mayb e excluded . PRELIMINARY STAF F WORKING DRAF T FOR OFFIC E O F MANAGEMENT AND BUDGE T REVIE W * DOE S NO T REPRESENT OFFICIAL EP APOLIC Y . *** ' Jul y5 , 199 5 [fil e name: . Master6.29 ] ** *P. 4

''••'•''•' . X 9 1 . . | Th e WEPC O preambl e i s very'clea r tha t an yincrease s a t a uni t tha t resul t froma chang e tha t significantl yaffect s th e efficienc yof . th e uni t mus t b e include d i n the future-actua l , .

• ' • . ' ' ' . calculation . Id . Indeed , wher e the propose d chang e wil l , •

•".'•..•
. - : • ••. | : increas e reliability,•lower.operatin g costs , o r improv e other' j

• I ' operationa l characteristic s o f the unit , increase s i n utilizatio n i that-ar e projecte d t o follo wca n an d shoul d be'attributabl e t'oj ' th e change . Thes e factor s ar e the ver yfactor s tha t utilities r us e t o orde r th e productio n dispatc ho f th e variou s unit s i n tlji e system . ^A>V** * ^> *'f r 'HsNjfcUuf t *fffi*? ^ h^ML . i Moreover' , i t i s clea r fo r otnie r sourc e categorie s tha t fafdc1\42%b+* • prediction s o f futur e demand an d it s impac t o n individua l . r»CjL « • \ ^PA emission s unit s ar e fa r mor e complicate d an d chaotic . Fo r /\XQAi d '*-*? njjrt*-mtSi consumer-drive n industries , fo r instance , demand'varie s 

# an d^V^tt: ^ presumption s regardin g it s siz e an d sourc e wduld.b e fa r mor e u*t6Jf"UM . speculativ e tha n i n th e utility . industry . I n mos t industries , i n qnjo-jM. othe r words , th e predictio n o f future-actua l emission s shoul d be -&&**** * lef t t o th e permittin g authorit yfo r a , case-by-cas e determinatio n o f whethe r th e propose d chang e wil l caus e an yincreas e in • • • , emission s o r whethe r al l o r par t o f an yprojected " increases-.will , b e cause d b

yindependent , factor s '. ' Eor-thi a L'EIMFQIB, ' EP Aseek s specifi c comment s o n th o nee d fei » th e demand growt hexclusio n « M ».Oy-...j«.f a W..4- ' -. 1 Ar. na,*-e.4A~-U^ . ,^4144- y 4l - ]i Yi,.mj-r. 

### 0 7 PRELIMINARY STAF F WORKIN G DRAF T FO

R OFFIC E O F MANAGEMENT AND BUDGE T .REVIE

W * DOE S NO T REPRESEN T OFFICIAL EP APOLIC Y ** * Jul y5 , 199 5 [fil e name: ' Masters.29 ] ** *P. 5

- 3 2 '• I n .addition , th e EPAsolicit s commen t o n th e fiv e yea r trackin g requiremen t whic hmandate s tha t permittin g authoritie s track s future-actua l projection s fo r fiv e year s following th e chang e t o insur e thei r accuracy . ^p^"fh e EPAbelieve s ..tha t t mechanis mi s workin g a s intended. . However , the EPAinvite s tixk publi c t o commen t o n thi s issu e an d th e experienc e t o dat e o f applicabilit ydetermination s making , use . o f thi s safeguard . ,H . Proposa l o f CM AExhibi t B A s par t o f the.settlemen t o f a challeng e t o th e EPA' s 198 0 NS R regulation s byChemica l Manufacturer s Associatio n (CMA ) an d 

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othe r industrypetitioners , th e EPAagree d t o propos e fo r public ' _ comment - and tak e fina l actio n o n a methodolog yfo r determinin g whethe r a sourc e ha s undertake n a modificatio n base d o n a source' s potentia l emissions . Th e exact.regulatorylanguag e the ' EP Awa s t o propos e wa s se t fort h i n Exhibi t B to ' th e Settlemen t Agreemen t whic hi s containe d i n the . docke t • fo r thi s rulemaking . Unde r thi s methodology , source s maycalculat e emission s increase s an d decrease s base d o n eithe r the actua l emission s methodologyin . th e existin g rule s o r the unit' s .potentia l emissions , measure d i n terms-o f hourl yemission s (i.e. , pound s o f pollutan t pe r hour).' , Spvirce s coul d us e .thi s potential-to-potentia l tes t for

- bot hNS R applicabilit yan

d fo r calculating offsets , nettin g credit s an d other , emission s reduction s credits .

PRELIMINARY STAF F WORKING DRAF T FO R OFFIC E O F MANAGEMENT AND BUDGE T REVIE W * DOE S NO T REPRESEN T OFFICIA

L EPAPOLIC Y

. .** * Jul y5, . 199 5 ,[fil e name : Masters.29 ] ** *