# August 27, 2010 An Integrated Program of New Service Development via: Start-Up Cost Offsets, Advertising/Marketing, and Revenue Guarantees In Support of New Scheduled Air Service to/from Chicago O’Hare and/or Denver

Sponsor: Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority Topeka, Kansas Eric Johnson, President/Director of Airports Congressional Code: KS-002
Dun & Bradstreet Number: 150947141 

# FORBES FIELD AIRPORT, TOPEKA, KANSAS
Proposal Under the Small Community Air Service Development Program Docket: DOT-OST-2010-0124 Before the Office of the Secretary of Transportation US Department of TransportationForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section Page

Summary Information 3
Introduction 6 Primary Objectives of Proposal 7 Executive Summary 8 Detailed Explanation of Proposal 13 Expected Results 16
The Potential for Air Service 20
Air Service Deficiencies 25 Extenuating Factors Affecting Air Service 29 Availability of Alternate Airports 31
Use of Local/Federal Funds 32 Public/Private Partnerships 33 Implementation Timeline 35 Air Service Advisory Groups 36 Local Air Service Development Efforts 37 In-kind Services from the Community 38
Performance Measures 39 Legal Sponsor 40
Financial Controls 41
Return on Investment 42 DOT Exit Strategy 43
Alternate Plan 44 Airport Information 45 Community Profile 46
Conclusions 57Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 3 SUMMARY INFORMATION

Small Community Air Service Development Program
Docket DOT-OST-2010-0124



### A. Applicant Information

Not a Consortium Community now receives EAS subsidy
Interstate Consortium Intrastate Consortium Community previously received a Small Community Grant If previous recipient, date of Grant: ________________________________ expiration date of Grant: _______________________



### B. Public/Private Partnership

Public:

1. Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority
2. City of Topeka
3. Shawnee County Commission

Private:

1. Greater Topeka Area Chamber of Commerce
2. Coalition of Topeka Area BusinessesForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 4 C. Project Proposal

Marketing Upgrade Aircraft New Route
Personnel Increased Frequency Low Fare Service
Travel Bank Service Restoration Subsidy Surface Transportation Regional Service Other (Specify)
Revenue Guarantee Launch New Carrier Start Up Cost Offset First Competitive Service Study Secure Additional Carrier



### D. Existing Landing Aids at Airport

Full ILS Outer/Middle Marker Published Instrument Approach
Localizer Other:



### E. Project Cost

1. Federal amount requested: $ 500,000
2. State cash financial contribution: $ 0
3. Local cash financial contribution: $ 50,000 3a. Airport cash funds: $ 25,000 3b. Non-Airport cash funds: $ 25,000
3c. Total local cash funds: $ 50,000
4. TOTAL CASH FUNDING: $ 550,000
5. Local funds contributed from already existing Programs of projects included in line 3c: $ 0
6. Local funds contributed from new commitments
Or new resources included in line 3c: $ 50,000
7. Airport In-Kind contribution: $ Various Description: Fee waivers: landing and terminal fees
8. Other In-Kind contribution: $ Various Description: Advertising and marketing match money
9. TOTAL IN-KIND CONTRIBUTION: $ Undetermined
10. TOTAL PROJECT COST: $ 550,000Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 5 F. Enplanements at Airport

2000: 0
2001: 0
2002: 0
2003: 0
2004: 470
2005: 470
2006: 6,640
2007: 0
2008: 0
2009: 0



### G. Is Application Subject to Review by State Under Executive Order 12372 Process?

This application was made available to the State on ______. Program is subject to review, but has not been selected by the State. Program is not covered.



### H. Is Applicant Delinquent on any Federal Debt?

NoForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 6 INTRODUCTION

It is the contention of the Metropolitan Tope ka Airport Authority that the Topeka catchment area generates plenty of air travel to support local air service. The region is estimated to generate 397 passengers per day each way as of 2009 – most of which currently use service at Kansas City International Airport, which is an hour and a half away on congested interstate highways. The Topeka catchment area is estimated to generate enough local passengers to support eight 50-seat regional jet departur es per day at a load factor of 99.3%.

With that potential passenger support in mind, under this proposal, the Forbes Field Airport and various community organizations throughout eastern Kansas seek to partner with the Department of Transportation to develop a re venue guarantee for new airline service. The community has determined the best option for local air service will be regional jet flights to and through Chicago O’Hare. The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority has had recent discussion with SkyWest – a United Express operator – about serving the route.

It must be noted that Topeka’s estimated passenger numbers are just that: estimates. They are not actual numbers of passengers flying to and from the Topeka catchment area. Due to the difficulty in estimating the size of the origin and destination passenger market at the Forbes Field Airport – with no recent network service providing historical data – the Airport must
offer interested airlines some kind of risk mitigation to reduce their risk of losing money.

While Topeka has been without air carrier service, service at the Kansas City International Airport has been cut significantly. Since the summer of 20 07, Kansas City’s seats are down by almost a third. These seat losses not only hurt the immediate Kansas City catchment area, but also Topeka. Access to the national air transportation system is becoming more difficult as the region, as a whole, sees cuts in airline service.

Should non-stop service be launched between Topeka and Chicago O’Hare the new flights wouldn’t even begin to make up for the capacity lost at Kansas City in the just the last three years. This gives the Airport extra confidence new service will be successful – as it merely replaces a small portion of capacity lo st in recent years at Kansas City. 

## “... With no recent network service providing historical data – the Airport
must offer interested airlines some kind of risk mitigation...”Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 7 PRIMARY OBJECTIVES OF PROPOSAL

Objectives for Program:

 Link Topeka and eastern Kansas to the national air transportation system

 Create better opportunitie s for business connections

 Increase connections to the majority of the country

 Recruit an airline to the market

Means to Achieve Objectives:

 Continue discussion with several airl ines about entrance into the market

 Develop risk mitigation package

 Work towards launch of routes no later than the Spring of 2012

Course of Action to Support Means:

 Provide start-up cost offsets

 Make available revenue guarantee in first 12-months of new service

 Initiate marketing and advertising ca mpaign to publicize new air service

 Work with local business partners to make sure new service is successfulForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Commu nity Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The City of Topeka has long been the cultural and economic center of east central Kansas. As the State’s capital, the City’s sphere of influence encompasses the entire state, and much of the region. Topeka lost is last commercial hub service in 2003, when the Department of Transportation ended its status as an Essential Air Service (EAS) market. The judgment was made due to the fact that the average subsidy, per passenger, had topped the $200 cap. Otherwise, Topeka would still qualify as an EAS service poin t today, as it had commercial service at the end of deregulation and it lies more than 70 miles from the nearest medium hub airport, in Kansas City.

Since 2003, the City of Topeka, the regional economic development agencies, and the State have all been working hard to bring commercial air service back to the Forbes Field Airport. This
effort resulted in a short stint of service by Allegiant Air, to Las Vegas. But that
service did not fulfill the community’s need for a hub carrier, providing connectivity to the national air transportation system.

The 30 minute drive time Topeka catchment area (see within the dotted line in Figure 1) is home to 168,139 people as of the
latest US Census estimates.
The one hour drive time catchment area (seen inside the solid line in Figure 1) is home to 464,809 people. 

### FIGURE 1: Immediate (30 Minute) and Extended (60 Minute) Catchment Areas, Forbes Field Airport, TopekaForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 9 The areas shaded in green in Figure 1 represent areas where residents must pass the Topeka – Forbes Field Airport on their way to access air se rvice at other airports in the region – namely Kansas City International. The population of the total area in green is 199,623, while the population of the area in dark green is 130,134, or 77.4% of the Topeka’s immediate catchment area. Topeka is not isolated, but the areas to the north and west of the Airport certainly are
isolated.

The Forbes Field Airport lost its last scheduled air service in July of 2007. Allegiant Air provided non-stop flights, twice per week, between Topeka and Las Vegas from March of 2006 through the summer of 2007. The service performed well, fr om an analysis of all data points, but it was ended as Allegiant was beginning to see margins in the 20% to 25% range – slightly higher than the projected margin it was likely earning in Topeka.

For the full 17 month operation of Topeka – Las Vegas service, Allegiant averaged a load factor of 79% (see Figure 2). The carrier averaged 44 available seats per day each way (SDEW), and boarded an average of 36 passengers per day each way (PDEW) – despite the fact that the service operated just twice per week.

12 40 44 45 44

39 45 44

40 44 44 48

44 45

39 45 44

9.4 20.3 30.0 40.8 39.6

34.2 36.1 34.8

28.5 35.5

31.1 36.5 35.7

32.7

29.9 40.6 40.2

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

2006-03 2006-0 4 2006-05 2006-06 2006-0 7 2006-08 2006-09 2006-10 2006-11 2006-12 200 7 -01 200 7 -02 2007-03 200 7 -0

4 200 7 -05 200 7 -06 200 7 -07 Available SDE W Onboard PDE W Load Facto r 77.7%

50.7% 68.8% 90.6% 91.1% 88.5%
80.1% 79.9%
71.2% 81.5%

71.5% 75.7% 82.1%

72.7% 77.3% 90.3% 92.3% 

### FIGURE 2: Departing Seats Per Day, Departing Passengers Per Day, and Load Factor Topeka

– Las Vegas Service, March 2006

– July 2007; Source: US DOT T100 DataForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 10 Topeka – Las Vegas service performed best just before it was pulled. In the last two months of Allegiant service the route averages 40.3 passengers per day each way – the highest two month average for the entire duration the route was served (see Figure 2). In the last two months of service in Topeka, Allegiant averaged a load factor just above 91%.

The previous success of this service gives the Airport reason to believe local travelers will use the Forbes Field Airport instead of driving to access the national air transportation system at Kansas City. Moreover, it is likely that the Airport would only have to draw passengers from its
immediate catchment area to sufficient ly support network carrier service.

The Topeka area currently makes up a small portion of the Kansas City International Airport catchment area, as there is no current scheduled air service in Topeka. The Topeka – Forbes Field Airport 30-minute catchment area represents

6.59% of the total population of the 90- minute Kansas City catchment area (see Figure 3). The immediate Topeka catchment area, represented in Figure 3 in purple, includes 168,139 people.

Only those living in the immediate, 30-minute Topeka catchment area
are considered in the origin and destination passenger analysis included in this proposal, as Forbes Field woul d be significantly more convenient for them than Kansas City International Airport (MCI). For th e purposes of these projections, it is assumed service at Topeka would draw passengers only from its 6.59% share of the Kansas City catchment area (see Figure 3). Additionally, for the purposes of being as conservative as possible in this Topeka Would Be Significantly More Convenient for 6.59% of the Kansas City International Airport Catchment Area 

### FIGURE 3: Topeka’s Catchment Area Relative to The Kansas City International Catchment AreaForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 11 proposal, it is assumed local Topeka air service would retain 50% of the passengers created in the Topeka portion of the MCI catchment area, or 3.295% of current Kansas City passengers.

When these assumptions are taken into account, it becomes apparent that even the immediate Topeka catchment area generates enough passengers to support local air service. For calendar year 2009, using thes e assumptions, it is projected that the Topeka immediate catchment area generated an average of 397 passengers per day each way (PDEW) through Kansas City International (see Figure 4). In all, the Topeka catchment area’s 50% retention in 2009 would have captured more than 276,000 total domestic origin and destination passengers and almost 14,000 international passengers.

It is projected that the Topeka catchment area has seen passenger declines in the last two years, as it generated an estimated 458 passengers per day each way (PDEW) in 2007 - 13% more passengers than it is estimated to have genera ted in 2009 (see Figure 4). This is in-line with passenger totals around the region, as the economic downturn reduced total travel through Kansas and Missouri – not to mention across the country. 315,035 300,092 277,236 273,659 285,041 290,345 308,059 319,246 301,184 276,086 10,359 10,120
10,118 10,205 11,836 13,044 14,407 14,905 15,058

13,825 445.7 424.9

393.6 388.9 406.7 415.6 441.7 457.7 433.2

397.1

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 PDEW International Domestic 

### FIGURE 4: Estimated O&D Passengers from the Topeka Catchment Area CY2000

– CY2009; Sources: US DOT Table DB1A, Sixel Consulting Group AnalysisForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 12 Even at 2009 estimated totals, the Topeka catchment area generates plenty of air travel to support local air service – even at just 50% retention of immediate, local passengers. The region’s 397 passengers per day each way would be enough to support eight 50-seat regional jet departures per day from the Forbes Field Airp ort at a load factor of 99.3% (see Figure 4).

It must be noted, however, that these passenger numbers are scientific estimates – and not actual numbers of passengers flying to and from the Topeka catchment area. Due to the difficulty in estimating the size of the origin an d destination passenger market at the Forbes Field Airport – with no recent network service providing historical data – the Airpor t must offer any interested airlines some kind of risk mitigation to ensure their profitability and reduce their risk of losing money.

Under this proposal, the Forbes Field Airport and various community organizations throughout eastern Kansas seek to partner with the Department of Transportation to develo p a revenue guarantee for new airline service. The community has determined the best option for local air service will be regional jet flights to and through Chicago O’Ha re. The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority has had recent discussion with SkyWest – a United Express operator – about serving the route. The Airport will also seek to work with other Unit ed Express partner airlines and American Eagle to develop a package to bring Chicago service to the region. 

## “The region’s 39 7 passengers per day each way would be enough to support eight 50-seat regional jets per day from the Forbes Field Airport at a load factor of 99.3%.”Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 13 DETAILED EXPLANATION OF PROPOSAL

The Forbes Field Airport in Topeka proposes to use a combination of locally raised funding in conjunction with federal Small Community Air Se rvice Development Grant funding in support of the addition of scheduled network airline service to the market. The proposed route is between Topeka and Chicago O’Hare (see Figure 5).

This routing would accomplish the main goal of the Airport and its community partners: to establish service to a major airline hub providing wide reaching connectivity to destinations both east and west of the Topeka market. Topeka’s location at the center of the country makes the second part of this goal especially difficult, but with limited backtrack routings, O’Hare can provide connectivity to both coasts (see Figure 5).

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority seeks a Small Community Air Service Development Grant, in the amount of $500,000, to help mitigate the initial monetary risk in serving the Topeka – Chicago O’Hare route. The route could be served by either a United Express carrier or by American Eagle/American
Connection.

The Airport proposes two daily flights on the route in each direction. The route between Topeka and Chicago O’Hare would cover 459 miles in a bl ock time of one hour and 30 minutes (see Figure 5), on average, assuming an average groundspeed of 350 knots on a Canadair CRJ200 regional jet aircraft seatin g 50 passengers in an all-economy layout (see Figure 6).

The proposed schedule would allow for the overnight of an aircraft at the Forbes Field Airport, which positions the aircraft for an early mornin g departure to Chicago to connect to the first Stage Length: 459 Miles Block Time: 1.5 Hours Aircraft: CRJ200 Available Seats/Flight: 50 Seats Topeka - Chicago O'Hare FOE ORD 

### FIGURE 5: Proposed Route: Topeka

– Chicago O’HareForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 14 departing block of flights of the day (see Figure 6). This schedule connects into the main midday and evening banks at O’Hare, as well, with a late evening arrival. The schedule is designed for the Topeka area business traveler to be able to make a day trip to most Midwest and east coast markets – providing the best possible competition with the schedule at Kansas City.

Origin Destination Departs Arrives Block Time Equipment
FOE ORD 6:00am 7:30am 1:30 CRJ ORD FOE 12:30pm 2:00pm 1:30 CRJ FOE ORD 2:30pm 4:00pm 1:30 CRJ ORD FOE 8:20pm 9:50pm 1:30 CRJ

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority proposes that a relatively small portion of the cost of starting the new service be supported up-front with federal funds from the Small Community Air Service Development Program. Of the total Grant request of $500,000, only $50,000 will be used for marketing and advertising projects, with only a small portion of the Grant award going to immediate start-up costs. The federal share of the project will be $500,000, all of which will be used for the airline revenue guarantee.

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority projects that the bulk of the grant money be available to provide insurance in case the new carrier incurs a loss during the first year of operations. With demonstrated demand for service in the Topeka market, and demand for connectivity over the Chicago O’Hare hub, the Airport projects the new flights will be profitable within one year.

If, for some unforeseen reason, service is not commenced in a timely manner by one of the carriers operating a hub at O’Hare, the Metropolit an Topeka Airport Authority proposes to use federal grant money awarded under the Small Community Air Service Development Program for service to another hub with wide ranging conn ectivity. Among the options the Airport will consider would be service to Denver on either United, Frontier, or one of their affiliated carriers; service to Memphis on Delta or one of its affil iated carriers; service to Dallas/Ft. Worth on American or one of its affiliated carriers; service to Minneapolis/St. Paul on Delta or one of its affiliated carriers; or service to Detroit on Delta or one of its affiliated carriers. 

### FIGURE 6: Proposed Schedule: Topeka

– Chicago O’HareForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 15 Should these options, for an un foreseen reason, not be availabl e for new service at the Forbes Field Airport, the Airport will continue its disc ussions with all other carriers than can provide service. Since the community has never before received a Small Community Air Service Development Grant, it will have no limitations on which new hub the DOT could fund.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 16 EXPECTED RESULTS

Route Specific Data: Topeka – Chicago O’Hare

The Chicago O’Hare hub would provide Topeka area travelers the most wide-ranging collection of one-stop destination of any middle-America hub. For the purposes of analyzing the potential connectivity, passengers, and revenue flowing over the hub, it is assumed service would be provided by a United Express carrier. The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority has had recent discussions, in the summer of 2010, with SkyW est, about serving the Topeka – Chicago O’Hare
market under the United
code.

United Express service from Topeka to Chicago
O’Hare would connect to 121 one-stop cities in North America, Europe, Asia, and South America (see Figure 7). Chicago O’Hare would provide
connections to both coasts, with circuity of
connections limited to 75%. Chicago O’Hare also provides the best possible connectivity to
destinations on the east
coast – which ranks as some of the region’s largest origin and destination passenger markets.

The Topeka market currently produces an estimated 281 origin and destination passengers per day each way to destinations that naturally connect over the United O’Hare hub. As of calendar year 2009, Topeka is estimated to ha ve produced 204,838 total origin and destination 

### FIGURE 7: One

‐ Stop Connections Over Chicago O’Hare on UA/Star, August 2010; Source: Sixel Consulting Group Hub BuilderForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 17 passengers that would flow over Chicago O’Hare on United and the Star Alliance (see Figure 8). In all, the Topeka – Chicago O’Hare route has the potential to capture 69% of the current passengers currently estimated to be flying
to and from the Topeka catchment area through other airports, without taking into account any passenger stimulation through the addition of local non-stop service.

At the same time, the United Chicago O’Hare hub could capture 65% of the current estimated revenue generated in Topeka market (see Figure 8). It is estimated that markets from Topeka that flow over the United Chicago O’Hare hub generate more than $28.5 million in
annual airline revenue, or $39,050 in revenue per day each way (RDEW).

The United/Star
Alliance hub at Chicago O’Hare has potential to capture large portions of
traffic in most of Topeka’s largest estimated origin and
destination markets.
The O’Hare hub is especially well O'Hare 83% Other Hubs 17%

O'Hare 75% Other Hubs 25%

Estimated Topeka O&D Revenue $44,177,603 100%

Revenue Flowing Over O’Hare $28,520,120 65% Estimated Topeka O&D Passengers 298,081 100%

Passengers Flowing Over O’Hare 204,838 69% 

### FIGURE 8: O&D Passengers and Revenue Over O’Hare on UA/Star, CY2009; Source: Sixel Consulting Group Hub Builder

20,048 14,713 13,779 12,131 10,772 10,607 9,317 8,135 7,417 6,090 5,257 5,163 4,723 4,219 3,859 3,640 3,393 3,352 3,139 2,980 27.5
20.2
18.9
16.6
14.8
14.5
12.8
11.1
10.2
8.3
7.2
7.1
6.5
5.8
5.3
5.0
4.6
4.6
4.3
4.1

0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 Chicago Area - 1 Washington/Baltimore - 2 Los Angeles Basin - 3 New York/Newark - 4 Las Vegas - 5 Orlando/Sanford Area - 6
Atlanta - 7 San Francisco Bay Area - 8
South Florida Area - 9
West Florida Area - 10

Seattle/Tacoma - 11 San Diego - 12

Nashville - 13 Philadelphia - 14
Boston - 15
Detroit - 16
Cleveland - 17 Indianapolis - 18
Portland - 19
Charlotte - 20 Annual Passengers PDEW 

### FIGURE 9: Top 20 O&D Passenger Markets Over O’Hare on UA/Star, CY2009; Source: Sixel Consulting Group Hub BuilderForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 18 positioned to capture traffic traveling to the east coast, although it also has excellent connectivity to international destinations. Among the large markets that would be served over O’Hare on United is Chicago, itself, which is es timated to produce 27.5 passengers per day each way (PDEW) to and from Topeka; Washington/B altimore, which produces 20.2 PDEW; the Los Angeles Basin, which produces 18.9 PDEW; New York/Newark, which produces 16.6 PDEW; Las Vegas, which produces 14.8 PDEW; and the Orlando/Sanford area, which produces 14.5 PDEW (see Figure 9).

It is likely local, non-stop
service would stimulate the passenger market significantly in Topeka, with a projected
stimulation rate in its market of, at least, 50%. This gives the Airport reason to be optimistic
that the service can be self-sustaining in as little
as 12 months from the start of flights.

Should it launch service between Topeka and Chicago O’Hare, United would be adding service in markets that have current fares averaging $139 each way at Kansas City International Airport (see Figure 10). United Express would provide another alternative in many markets where fares are above the Midwest regional average, such as Washington/Baltimore, where the average roundtrip fare was $286 in 2009; New York/Newark, where the average roundtrip fare was $310 in 2009; Seattle where the average roundtrip fare was $286 in 2009; Philadelphia, where the average fare was $300 roundtrip in 2009; Detroit, where the average roundtrip fare was $342 in 2009; and Portland, Oregon, where the aver age roundtrip fare was $294 in 2009. $93 $143 $132 $155 $117 $97 $116 $138 $113 $96 $143 $138 $88 $150 $143 $171 $131 $91 $147 $138

$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 Chicago Area - 1
Washin g ton/Baltimore - 2 Los Angeles Basin - 3
New York/Newark - 4
Las Ve g as - 5 Orlando/Sanford Area - 6
Atlanta - 7 San Francisco Bay Area - 8
South Florida Area - 9
West Florida Area - 10

Seattle/Tacoma - 11
San Die g o - 12

Nashville - 13 Philadelphia - 14
Boston - 15
Detroit - 16
Cleveland - 17 Indianapolis - 18
Portland - 19
Charlotte - 20 

### Average Over ORD: $139 

### FIGURE 10: Average One Way Fares to Top 20 Passenger Markets Over O’Hare, At MCI, CY2009; Source: Sixel Consulting Group Hub BuilderForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 19 The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority beli eves there is sufficient passenger traffic and revenue that would flow over United’s Chicago O’Hare hub to make the service profitable. United would not be forced to offer rock-bottom fares in Topeka to be competitive – even fares slightly higher than those found in other region al markets, such as Kansas City, would be low enough to capture local traffic and end some of the leakage the market experiences today. The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority believ es in the Topeka – Chicago market, and must develop a risk mitigation package to ensure an airline hubbed at O’Hare can enter the market without major risk.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 20 THE POTENTIAL FOR AIR SERVICE IN TOPEKA

Despite the relative size of the Topeka catchment area, with almost 500,000 local residents, the Forbes Field Airport has been without schedule ai r service since 2007 and without network carrier service since 2003. While the Metropolitan Tope ka Airport Authority has worked had to attract an air carrier to re-establish service in the market, it is clear risk mitigation will be required – on a scale that the Topeka community will not be able to support on its own.

The Airport is confident its catchment area generates enough annual passenger trips to support local air service. In a series of materials prepar ed by an outside consulting firm for direct airline meetings the Topeka market has been estimated to produce between 400 and 500 passengers per day each way (PDEW).



### Current Passenger Traffic Generated by the Topeka Market

As previously explained in this proposal, the immediate, 30-minute drive time Forbes Field Airport catchment area makes up 6.59% of the greater Kansas City International Airport catchment area. It is estimated that the Topeka area is re sponsible for about 6.5% of all passenger trips in and out of the Kansas City Airport. The Airport, however, does not believe local service in Topeka will capture 100% of the passengers ge nerated by its immediate catchment area. Instead, it anticipates about half the trips from its immediate catchment area would shift from the Kansas City Airport to the Forbes Field Airport, assuming the right kind of service is offered in Topeka, with fares within 25% of the fares offered at Kansas City.

With these assumptions taken into account, it is conservatively believed the Topeka “true market” could capture 397 origin and destination passengers per day each way as of calendar year 2009. This passenger average in cludes half of the Topeka share of Kansas City passengers – or 3.295% of the 2009 Kansas City market. 

## “While the Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority has worked hard to

attract an air carrier to re-establish service in the market, it is clear risk mitigation will be required...”Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 21 These passengers are distributed to markets all over the country, and around the world. In 2009, it is estimated that Chicago ranked as Topeka ’s number one origin and destination domestic passenger market, generating more than 20,000 annual passengers or 27.4 passengers per day each way (PDEW) (see Figure 11). Chicago wa s followed by Washington-Baltimore, with 19.8 passengers per day each way; Dallas/Ft. Worth, with 19.6 passengers per day each way; the Los Angeles Basin, with 18.6 passengers per day each way; Denver, with 18.3 passengers per day each way; New York/Newark, with 16.7 passengers per day each way; and Las Vegas, with 14.7 passengers per day each way.

International traffic from the Topeka catchment area is scattered to destinations around the world, with the largest proportion traveling to destinations in Mexico in 2009. Cancun is estimated to be Topeka’s top international origin and destination market in 2009, averaging 2.9 passengers per day each way (PDEW), or 2,110 total passengers (see Figure 12). 20,015 14,472 14,313 13,560 13,370 12,213 10,713 10,559 9,232 8,365 8,051 7,318 6,839 6,049 5,134 5,124 4,712 4,411 4,103 3,820 3,749 3,540 3,363 3,330 3,063 27.4 19.8 19.6 18.6 18.3 16.7 14.7 14.5 12.6 11.5 11.0 10.0 9.4 8.3 7.0 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.2

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Chicago Area Washin g ton-Baltimore Dallas/Ft. Worth Los An g eles Area Denver New York/Newark Las Vegas

Orlando Atlanta Phoenix San Francisco Bay Area South Florida Houston Tampa Seattle San Diego

Nashville St. Louis Philadelphia Minneapolis/St. Paul Boston Detroit Cleveland Indianapolis Portland, OR Annual Passengers PDEW 

### FIGURE 11: Topeka’s Estimated Top 25 Domestic O&D Passenger Markets, CY2009; Sources: US DOT Table DB1A, Sixel Consulting Group AnalysisForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 22 Other large estimated international origin an d destination markets for immediate Topeka catchment area passengers in 2009 included London Heathrow, with 663 O&D passengers; Puerto Vallarta, with 628 O&D passengers; Los Cabos, with 501 O&D passengers; Toronto, with 473 O&D passengers; and Montego Bay, with 471 O&D passengers (see Figure 12).

As both the large domestic and international mark ets from Topeka are distributed from coast to coast and continent to continent it is important th at any local service offered at the Forbes Field Airport be able to offer one-stop connections to a wide range of markets. This is why the Airport believes Chicago O’Hare will be the best option fo r hub service. Flights from Topeka to Chicago O’Hare would connect to 121 one-stop destinations, including 24 of Topeka’s top 25 estimated domestic origin and destination markets and 20 of Topeka top 25 estimated international origin
and destination markets. 2,110 663 628 501 473 471 418 337 330 267 253 244 220 213 208 175 170 167 164 154 150 147 138 123 121 2.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Cancun London Heathrow Puetro Vallarta Los Cabos

Toronto Montego Bay Frankfurt Vancouver Paris Mexico City Cal g ar y Nassau

Rome Cozumel Shanghai San Jose, Costa Rica Amsterdam Montreal Grand Cayman Tokyo Narita Beijing Dublin Guatemala City Munich Punta Cana Annual Passengers PDEW 

### FIGURE 12: Topeka’s Estimated Top 25 International O&D Passenger Markets, CY2009; Sources: US DOT Table DB1A, Sixel Consulting Group AnalysisForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 23 Air Carrier Market Share in the Region

The current air carrier market share landscape in th e Topeka area is fragmented, with five airlines competing for a little more than 50% of the Kansas City market. As of calendar year 2009, the top passenger airline at Kansas City – the main airport used by those living in the Topeka catchment area due to the lack of local air service – was Southwest (see Figure 13). But Southwest had less than 50% of the Kansas City market – with its 2009 market share at 41.8%.

United Airlines had just 8.5% of the Kansas City passenger market in 2009 (see Figure 13). This is significant because it illustrates th at United’s market share in the area has been eroding over the last decade as it faces more competition. One way for United to recapture some of the market would be to offer a unique service, by flying into both Kansas City and the Forbes Field Airport in Topeka. 3,378,280

1,392,500

839,080 795,780 686,160 550,500 285,990 160,370 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000

Southwes t Delta Frontier/Midwest American United US Airways AirTran Continental Southwest

41.8%

Delta 17.2% Frontier/ Midwest 10.4% American

9.8% United 8.5% US Airways

6.8% AirTran 3.5% Continental 2.0% Passenger Market Share by Carrier at Kansas City Calendar Year 2009 

### FIGURE 13: Air Carrier Passenger Market Share at Kansas City Int’l (MCI), CY2009; Sources: US DOT Table DB1AForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 24 Delta’s passenger market share in the area has grown considerably in the last year, due to its merger with Northwest. Delta had just 8% of the passenger market at Kansas City in 2008. That number grew to 17.2% in 2009 (see Figure 13). Frontier is also growing rapidly in the Kansas City market after its merger with Midwest. Together the two share 10.4% of the region’s passengers as
of 2009.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 25 AIR SERVICE DEFICIENCIES IN TOPEKA

To gauge the general strength of the Topeka metr opolitan statistical area (MSA), and its ability to support commercial flights, the Airport produced an analysis of the market’s position in the region, and an estimated determination of the number of local Topeka MSA passengers using other airports in the region. This analysis also included a projection of regional travel based on the economies of the area’s main airport-served metropolitan areas. This analysis helps to validate the projected numbers for new service. At the same time, the analysis also points out just how underserved the Topeka market is.

The Topeka metropolitan statistical area (MSA) had a population of 229,619 as of the latest US Census estimates (see Figure 14). The larger region comprised of the metro areas of Kansas City and Wichita has a current population of 2,937,944. Topeka’s share of that population is 7.8%.

In many markets, an Airport draws a number of passengers proportional to its overall population in the region.
If that were to be the case in the Topeka market, one could reasonably expect the Airport to retain about 8% of the total passengers using all three airports in the larger region.

While the Topeka metro
area is home to almost 8% of the region’s total residents, without current service, its Airport retains none of the region’s passengers (see Figures 15 and 16). FOE MCI

ICT 

### Regional Population

Kansas City (MCI) 2,070,544 70.5%

Wichita (ICT) 637,781 21.7% Topeka (FOE) 229,619 7.8% Population Share

Source: US Census Share of Population of Combined MCI/ICT/FOE Catchment 

### FIGURE 14: Regional Population Distribution Source: US Census EstimatesForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 26 If the Airport had been able to retain the number of regional passengers proportional to its share of population in the region, it would have been used by 791,103 origin and destination passengers as of the year ended first quarter 2010.

The largest beneficiary of Topeka’s passenger leakage is Kansas City – which is more than an hour away, on a drive of 74 highway miles by the most direct route. Kansas City had “reverse leakage” as of the year ended first quarter 2010, when it drew 23% more passengers than its pr oportion of the regional population. While Kansas City makes-up 70.5% of the region’s population, it boards almost 87% of the region’s total origin and destination passengers (see Figures 15 and 16). If Kansas City retained a number of origin and destination passengers proportional to its
regional population share, it would be expected to generate 7,150,350 passengers annually. As of the year ended first quarter 2010, Kansas City saw a total of 8,782,260 O&D passengers – again, 23% above its regional share. Many of those “extra” passengers likely came from the Topeka metro area.

Another way of determinin g passenger leakage from the Topeka market to other ai rports in the region is bycomparing the economy of Topeka to the economies of the nearest cities with commerciallyserved airports. The easiest way to gauge each catchment area’s contribution to the economy of the region is to compare the gross metropolitan products (GMP) of each. A GMP is much like a gross national product – an overall gauge of ec onomic activity in an area in dollars earned. Kansas City

70.50% Wichita 21.70% Topeka 7.80%

Kansas City 86.59% Wichita 13.41% Topeka 0.00% 

### FIGURE 15: Regional Population Share Source: US Census Estimates

FIGURE 16: Regional O&D Passenger Share Source: US DOT Table DB1A, YE1Q10Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 27 The United States Council of Mayors reports the Topeka metro area produced a GMP of $8.7 billion, which represented 6.4% of the total gro ss regional product (GRP) of the area including Kansas City and Wichita (see Figure 17). Kansas City
generated the largest portion of the GRP, with $101.2 billion, or 74.6%, while Wichita produced a GMP of $25.7 billion – good
for 19.0% of the GRP.

Despite producing 6.4% of the total gross regional product (GRP), the Topeka
area doesn’t retain its share of passengers, due to the fact the Airport has no current airline service (see Figures 18 and 19). If the Airport had been able to
retain the number of regional passengers proportional to its share of the GRP, it would have been used by 649,110 passengers as of the year ended first quarter 2010.

The major beneficiary of Topeka’s passenger le akage is, again, Kansas City. Kansas City experienced “reverse leakage” as of the year ended first quarter 2010, when it drew 16% more passengers than its proportion of th e gross regional product (GRP). Sources: United States Council of Mayors, June 2008 FOE MCI

ICT

Kansas City (MCI) $101.2 Billion 74.6% Wichita (ICT) $25.7 Billion 19.0% Topeka (FOE) $8.7 Billion 6.4% 

### Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP)

GMP Share 

### FIGURE 17: Regional Gross Metro Product (GMP) Distribution Source: US Council of MayorsForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 28 While Kansas City generates 74.6% of the GRP, it boards almost 87% of the region’s total origin and destination passengers (see Figures 18 and 19). If Kansas City retained a number of origin and destination passengers proportional to its GRP share, it would be expected to generate 7.6 million passengers annually. As of the year ended first quarter 2010, Kansas City saw a total of almost 8.8 million O&D passengers.

These statistics illustrate that the Topeka market is strong enough in both population, and in its economic health, to generate at least 650,000 annual origin and destination passengers. If none of Topeka’s passengers “leaked” to other airports in the region, it would generate enough local passengers to fill 18 regional jet departur es per day at a 99% load
factor. Kansas City

74.60% Wichita 19.00% Topeka 6.40%

Kansas City 86.59% Wichita 13.41% Topeka 0.00% 

### FIGURE 18: Regional GMP Share Source: US Census Estimates

FIGURE 19: Regional O&D Passenger Share Source: US DOT Table DB1A, YE1Q10Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 29 EXTENUATING FACTORS AFFECTING AIR SERVICE

It has been established in this proposal that th e Forbes Field Airport in Topeka has a sufficient passenger base in its local catchment area to support commercial air service. Despite this, airlines have found the region unattractive due to the relative proximity of Kansas City International Airport (MCI). While this, in and of itself, represents a hardship for the Airport and the community it serves there are additional extenuating circumstances regarding seat loss and flight declines to consider in the larger region.

In just the last three years Kansas City Internatio nal Airport has seen it’s most significant seat cuts in decades. These seat cuts have the impact of making air service more difficult to access for those in the Topeka catchment area. Since the summer of 2007, Kansas City has lost an average of almost 77 daily departures – a loss of 30% of that Airport’s daily flights (see Figure 20). During that same time period, Kansas City has lost an average of 6,353 daily outbound available seats, or 26% of all the market’s available airline capacity.



### FIGURE 20: Available Seats, Flights, and Passengers Per Day at MCI June 2007

– February 2010; Source: US DOT T100 Data

24,104 24,476 24,586 24,243 24,771 24,312

22,385 22,708 22,912 22,711 22,757 22,322 22,653 21,923
21,113

19,968 19,818
18,906 18,810 18,122 18,125 18,209 18,784 19,131 20,349 20,317 19,575 18,841 19,205 20,050

18,348 18,470 18,418 20,115 19,975

18,968

16,603 17,805 17,179

15,581

14,151 15,043 16,879 16,342 17,421 18,542 17,783

16,211

14,271 15,152

13,231 13,916

11,534 12,198 13,925 13,802 14,874 16,711 17,027

15,034

13,915 14,882 14,776

13,588

12,172 12,531

8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000

Available SDEW Onboard PDEW Flights DEW 247.6 255.4 257.7 250.7 257.7 252.5

238.5 241.1 241.4 239.3 237.5 230.3 232.4

213.9 206.3

187.2 186.4 183.4 181.6 177.5 181.4 183.6 191.1 190.3 199.9 198.3 190.3 181.0 182.5 196.2

176.2 179.8 181.1Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 30 These overall air carrier flight and seat losses not only hurt the immediate Kansas City catchment area, but also Topeka. Topeka catchment area travelers have had to rely more on service provided at Kansas City for access to the nation al air transportation system. This access is becoming more difficult as the region, as a whole, sees huge cuts in airline service.

The result of these flight and seat cuts at Kansas City International Airport has been
to make access to service more difficult to obtain. Should non-stop service be launched between Topeka and Chicago O’Hare the new flights wouldn’t even begin to make up for the capacity lost at Kansas City in the just the last three years. This gives the Airport extra confidence new service will be successful – as it merely replaces a small portion of ca pacity lost in recent years at Kansas City. 

## “Should non-stop service be launched between Topeka and Chicago O’Hare the

new flights wouldn’t even begin to make up for the capacity lost at Kansas City in just the last three years.”Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 31 AVAILABILITY OF ALTERNATE AIRPORTS

Currently, the Topeka catchment area is only served by its alternate airports, as Forbes Field Airport has no scheduled air service. The primar y alternate for Topeka travelers is Kansas City International, which lies 71 miles from downtown Topeka (see Figure 21). The drive to Kansas City’s Airport can take as long as two hours in normal traffic.

A smaller percentage of Topeka catchment area
travelers use Wichita’s Mid-Continent Airport as an alternate (see Figure 21). Mid-Continent isn’t as popular as Kansas City, due to the fact it lies
a two and a half hour
drive from most of Topeka. Other alternates
include Salina and Manhattan, but neither airport offers truly competitive service, so neither draws significantly from the Topeka market. 

### FIGURE 21: Alternate Airports in the Topeka Area As of August 2010Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 32 USE OF LOCAL/FEDERAL FUNDS

Marketing and Advertising

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority prop oses to spend at least $50,000 in funds on marketing and advertising promotions in support of new service introductions. The goal is to increase ridership and usage of new local se rvice through targeted regional campaigns.



### Revenue Guarantee

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority proposes to make available at least $500,000 in funds for a revenue guarantee to the new carrier, to co ver start-up losses that may occur during the first twelve months of service. Subject to negotiation, payments will be made to the new carrier quarterly when income derived from passengers and cargo is less than agreed expenses on the route. Revenue generated that exceeds expenses will be carried forward and tapped before any grant funds are used.



### Startup Cost Offsets

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority propos es to spend only existing airport funds and matching funds to pay for start-up costs in support of new service introductions. The Airport, and its partners, will provide essential terminal sp ace and equipment to handle the new service.



### Additional Costs

As part of this program, the Metropolitan Tope ka Airport Authority understands that additional expenses will be incurred, such as monitoring the results of the program and reporting those results back to the US DOT. In addition, the Airport Authority expects to incur some expenses in the recruitment of a new airline to serve the region. The Airport will not use DOT funding in these efforts – but instead, will use its own internal funding.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 33 PUBLIC/PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS

A number of local partners will be working with the Airport to promote participation in this air service development project. Contacts will be made to all Topeka members of chambers of commerce and similar organizations, and those wi th an interest in growing the economic base of the community through local business growth, attraction of new businesses and the promotion of tourism and visitor traffic via the Airport.

Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority owns an d operates Forbes Field Airport in Topeka. The Authority has long been advocating for increased commercial air service at the Airport, and this application is just part of that advocacy. Th e Airport Authority has already approved the money to be spent to match this Grant, recognizing how important the addition of viable air service is to the region.

Greater Topeka Area Chamber of Commerce The Greater Topeka Chamber of Commerce has the mission of working to get the things done that a company cannot do alone. A Chamber member ship is seen as an investment in both a company's and the community's future.

The membership of the Greater Topeka Chamber of Commerce represents the entire community with members from business and indust ry, private associations, civic organizations, home based businesses, social service agencies, education, government, and individuals. Over 1,200 member firms, representing over 1,900 indivi duals, are Chamber members, joining in their support of the Forbes Field Airport in Topeka.

City of Topeka As the State’s second largest city, and Kansas’ capital, the City of Topeka is glad to have the opportunity to partner with Forbes Field Airport to bring competitive air service to the City. Community leaders have long been working to recruit additional air service to the region.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 34 Shawnee County Commission This three person board oversees the operation of Shawnee County, the home of the City of Topeka and Forbes Field Airport. The Commission ispublically elected, and in charge of a multimillion dollar annual budget. The Commiss ion has a current emph asis on economic development, and as such, supports the effo rt to bring air service to Forbes Field.

Coalition of Topeka Area Businesses Dozens of local businesses will work together to support the push to bring air service to eastern Kansas. These businesses will not only pledge to use new service at Forbes Field Airport, but also work to make sure the air service marketing message is spread throughout the community.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 35 IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE

The proposed implementation timeline for the project assumes the Department of Transportation will award Small Community Grant Funding in Dece mber 2010. Once the award is announced, the Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority will conduct additional airline meetings to secure a new service that is mutually beneficial. Based on airline planning lead times and the need for advance bookings, we assume the new carrier would not be able to begin service until at least
March of 2012.

The first three milestones on the Airport's timeline are to execute the grant agreement with the Department of Transportation, meet with prospect ive airlines to negotiate for service, and sign the minimum revenue guarantee agreement with the appropriate airline partner. Once service is announced and schedules are published, th e Airport would begin marketing the new route and working with the new carrier to monitor adva nce bookings. The Airport will continue its marketing program and continue to work with th e new carrier to monitor the route once service begins. The Airport would submit grant status reports on a quarterly basis to the Department throughout the proposed two year term of the minimum revenue guarantee.

While the estimated dates are targets, it is possible service could be secured and launched on a more aggressive timeline once Grant funding is aw arded. It is also possible that new service could slip to 2013 should an airline require addition al risk mitigation, beyond that included in this proposal, from the community.



### Activity/Project Milestone Estimated Date

SCASD Grant Award Announcement December 2010 Executive Grant Agreement with DOT January 2011 Meet With Prospective Airlines February - June 2011 Negotiate Minimum Revenue Guarantee (MRG) With Airline July/August 2011 Announce Service December 2011 Publish Schedule December 2011 Begin Marketing of New Route January 2012 Monitor Advance Bookings January - March 2012 Service Launch March 2012 MRG Available for Service March 2012 - March 2014 Monitor Route Performance March 2012 - March 2014 Submit Grant Status Reports to DOT Quarterly Q1 2011 - Q1 2014 Close Grant April 2014Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 36 AIR SERVICE ADVISORY GROUPS

The Forbes Field Airport in Topeka is governed by members of the Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority. The Airport also has oversight from a number of governmental agencies and community organizations that all share an interest in increased air service. Among the groups providing advisory services on this application are the City of Topeka, the Greater Topeka Chamber of Commerce, local economic development authorities, and area travel agencies.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 37 LOCAL AIR SERVICE DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority is dedi cated to doing whatever it can to bring viable, sustainable air service to Kansas’ capital. Since Allegiant Air left the market in 2007 the Airport has begun a process to bring a network air carrier to the market, to offer connectivity to the majority of cities Topeka-area business trav elers need access to. The Airport has hired a consulting firm to work in the re cruitment of additional service.

In the summer of 2010, the Airport was able to secure one-on-one meetings with three airlines, including SkyWest/United Express, Frontier, and Great Lakes. In these conversations there was much interest in the Topeka market. But all three airlines expressed their need for risk mitigation to consider an unproven market.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 38 IN-KIND SERVICES FROM COMMUNITY

The following organizations will help promote the new service through their various membership groups. There is no estimated value to these services.

 Greater Topeka Chamber of Commerce

 City of Topeka

 State of Kansas

 Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority

 Coalition of Topeka Area BusinessesForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 39 PERFORMANCE MEASURES

The success of new service in the Topeka market will be based on three measurable variables: the increase in available seats in the market, the number of enplanements on the route, and the average airfares charged in the affected city pairs. The first two measurements will include a monthly comparison once the program begins to past numbers. The second measurement will be derived from US DOT OD1A reports.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 40 LEGAL SPONSOR

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority is th e legal sponsor responsible for administering the program. The Metropolitan Topeka Airp ort Authority is a government entity.

Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority Forbes Field Airport PO Box 19053 Topeka, Kansas 66619 Eric Johnson, President/Director of Airports 785.862.2362 ejohnson@mtaa-topeka.orgForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 41 FINANCIAL CONTROLS

As the sponsor, the Metropolitan Topeka Airpor t Authority will be the responsible party for all fiscal matters and DOT reporting requirements. As a public entity the DOT can be assured that proper financial controls are in place to gu arantee that the DOT’s grant will be used in accordance with any subsequent agreement. The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority understands that the grant is a reimbursable grant, meaning the Airport is responsible for program expenditures and will submit invoices to the DOT for reimbursement, based on a percentage of the total grant request.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 42 RETURN ON INVESTMENT

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority ha s developed a cost effective and achievable strategy to increase enplanements at the airport. The proposal uses proven methods of achieving air service improvements, allowing the DOT to be comfortable with choosing this proposal. The establishment of local air service is one of the major goals of the Small Community Air Service Development Program.

Approximately $50,000 of the $550,000 in cash is committed to being spent. The remaining $500,000 in cash will be available for the revenue guarantee portion of the project. Should the revenue guarantee be unused, or unneeded for the new airline, funding may be used to widen the marketing and advertising program.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 43 DOT EXIT STRATEGY

The Airport has developed this proposal as a on e-time grant. The ad vertising and marketing program will commence a few months before service starts and last for at least twelve months. The revenue guarantee program will also be in place for twelve months, with two additional twelve-month periods available for negotiation. It is projected that the service on the new route will be financially self-sustaining within the second twelve months of service.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 44 ALTERNATE PLAN

If, for some unforeseen reason, service is not commenced in a timely manner by one of the carriers operating a hub at O’Hare, the Metropolit an Topeka Airport Authority proposes to use federal grant money awarded under the Small Community Air Service Development Program for service to another hub with wide ranging conn ectivity. Among the options the Airport will consider would be service to Denver on either United, Frontier, or one of their affiliated carriers; service to Memphis on Delta or one of its affil iated carriers; service to Dallas/Ft. Worth on American or one of its affiliated carriers; service to Minneapolis/St. Paul on Delta or one of its affiliated carriers; or service to Detroit on Delta or one of its affiliated carriers.

Should these options, for an un foreseen reason, not be availabl e for new service at the Forbes Field Airport, the Airport will continue its disc ussions with all other carriers than can provide service. Since the community has never before received a Small Community Air Service Development Grant, it will have no limitations on which new hub the DOT could fund.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 45 AIRPORT INFORMATION

Forbes Field Airport in Topeka was built as a military outpost, located in the heart of America, and has remained so for many years. In 1976, commercial air services moved from Topeka’s “other” airport, Billard Municipal, to Forbes Fi eld, largely due to its available infrastructure, including a 12,000-foot runway and an 8,000-foot runway. Work to build Forbes Field began weeks after the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor,

in 1941, when the military sought an air base in
middle America. It operated solely in a military role, hosting the Strategic Air Command, until 1976. The military left behind an outstanding physical plant, capable of becoming an air-hub
for all of eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. 

### FIGURE 22: Aerial Photo of Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, KansasForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 46 COMMUNITY PROFILE

Topeka is the capital of the State of Kansas, the economic and cultural center of all of east central Kansas, and one of Money Magazine’s “Best Places to Live.” The City of Topeka has a population of roughly 125,000 people, according to statistics from the US Census Bureau. Topeka’s Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), as defined by the Census Bureau, includes the counties of Shawnee (where Topeka is the capital), Jackson, Jefferson, Osage, and Wabaunsee. Roughly, 230,000 people live within the Topeka MSA.

The name “Topeka” comes from a Kansas tribal name with the meaning, “good place to dig potatoes.” With cultural roots like that, its no wonder Topeka has been an agricultural hub for more than 500-years. But as Topeka’s economy has grown, it has also become much more diversified, and much less reliant on agricu lture. Government and related services jobs comprise more than half of the Topeka job-base . Additionally, a number of major Fortune 500 companies have major offices or facilities in the Topeka MSA, including Goodyear, Frito-Lay, Hallmark Cards, Payless ShoeSource (headquarters), Westar Energy (headquarters), and Burlington Northern Santa Fe.

The cities surrounding Topeka are home to some of the world’s truly great universities, including the University of Kansas at Lawrence, Kansas State University at Manhattan, Washburn University, and Emporia State University. Together these schools enroll more than 65,000 full-time students, and employ more than 15,000 highly educated, and nationally regarded faculty and staff
members.

Topeka is increasingly becoming a regional tourist destination. In addition to high profile, and highly attended Division I collegiate athletics at the University of Kansas and Kansas State, the region offers new and original historical and cult ural destinations that can’t be found anywhere else. The National Park Service has opened a museum commemorating the Brown vs. the Board of Education decision, desegregating schools in Kansas. In addition, Topeka’s rose gardens and botanical parks draw visitors from around the country. 

### Kansas State Capitol TopekaForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 47 What’s New in Topeka

The Topeka area has a natural business advantage, being at the capital of the State of Kansas. Local authorities have done an outstanding job in the last year capitalizing on that position, adding more than 830 new jobs, and overseeing exception growth by one of the City’s Fortune 1000 headquartered companies. Topeka isn’t the largest City in the State, but these developments show why it is the fa stest growing economy in the State.

o U.S. Foodservice, Inc. is one of the countr y’s premier foodservice distributors, offering more than 43,000 national, private label and signature brand items and an array of services to its more than 250,000 customers. The company announced in June 2009 that it would spend approximately $13 million to increase their warehouse with a 50,000 square foot expansion to its distribution center. The company employs 175 full-time employees at its Topeka warehouse facility. The company plans to add more employees to serve the growing market and continue to help its customers.

o Leading customer service management firm Alor ica, Inc. opened a new office in Topeka in May of 2007. The company has hired 150 sales and customer service agents per month for most of the year, with employment now topping 700. Alorica is based in Chico, California. The company works on be half of large software and high-technology companies to provide troubleshooting help and client development services.

o Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., announced in July 2009 that it will proceed with a $250 million to modernize operations in the Topeka plant and to retain up to 1,400 Topeka employees for at least 10 years. State and Lo cal financial incentives will allow Goodyear to make capital investment s this capital investment.

o Topeka-based Payless ShoeSource, a Fortune 1000 company, announced its intention to purchased Stride-Rite shoes in 2007, integr ating the two companies under one holding company, based in Topeka. Stride-Rite’s admi nistrative headquarters will relocate to Topeka, making the combined company one of the largest shoe sellers in the world.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 48 Topeka Economic Overview

As the capital of Kansas, Topeka also serves as the economic capital of the region. Almost half of the Topeka-area workforce has jobs in state an d federal government. Almost all of the State of Kansas’ service offices are located in Topeka. Additionally, the federal government has more than a thousand employees based in Topeka, in administration-related jobs. Topeka is also home to high finance companies, major manufacturing facilities, and distribution centers.

While Money Magazine reports the annual average family purchasing power for a family in Topeka in 2007 was $65,000, just below the national average of $68,000, Topeka offers a much lower cost of living than most other cities of equal or greater size. In the same report, Money reports the national average cost of a home in 2006 was $260,000, while the average home in Topeka sold for just $95,000. Thus, the annual “family income” of $65,000 in Topeka goes much further in east central Kansas than it woul d in most other comparable cities.
The US Census Bureau reports the median income for a Topeka household is $36,000, while the median family income is $46,000. The per capita income for Topeka was $20,000, as reported in
current US Census Bureau estimates.

The City’s location, near the geographic center of the US, makes it the perfect location for almost any industry. Flour mills, printing and publishing companies, medical providers, iron foundries, food processing plants, and rail and highway transportation companies have all realized the value of Topeka’s location, opening major operations, employing tens of thousands of highly skilled workers.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 49 Select Company Profiles

Payless ShoeSource

The nationally recognized provider of designer sh oes at discount prices, Payless Shoe Source was founded in Topeka in 1956, and it still has its corp orate headquarters in the City. In 2005, Payless sold more than 182 million pairs of shoes, at a value of $2.7 Billion, at retail stores in all 50 states and in a number of foreign companies. Payless currently employs more than 1,730 people in its corporate administration and distribution offices in Topeka, and as such, is one of the City’s most important private employers. 

### FIGURE 23: Top Employers in Topeka Source: Greater Topeka Chamber of CommerceForbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 50 Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF)

Created by a merger of six major railways, Burlingt on Northern Santa Fe railroad is the nation’s second largest, in terms of the number of track miles. BNSF is one of just four true national transcontinental railways in the US. The company is based in Fort Worth, Texas, but it operates one of its largest rail yards in Topeka, where it has a major transcontinental transfer hub. BNSF also has major rail yards in Los Angeles, Kansas City, and Alliance,
Nebraska.

Jostens Printing and Publishing

Jostens is the country’s leading provider of school portraits, class rings, and yearbooks, along with graduati on caps, gowns, and diplomas. The company is headquartered in Minneapolis, but it has its major printing and publishing division headquarters in To peka. Jostens’ Topeka facility not only prints school photos, but also diplomas and yearbook s, with more than 1,000 employees in east
central Kansas.

Frito-Lay

Frito-Lay is a wholly owned subsidiary of Pepsi-Co , best known for its snack foods. Frito-Lay had 2008 revenue of $43 billion, while the company employed more than 198,000 people nationally, including more than 800 in Topeka. Frito-Lay’s Topeka plant currently produces a numb er of its brands of chips, along with cookies, and some of Pepsi-Co’s soft drinks.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 51 Hallmark Cards

Hallmark is one of the best-known companies, with one of the most recognized service marks in corporate America. The company was founded in 1910, in Kansas City, and has grown to become with world’s foremost designer, printer, and seller of greeting cards. Hallmark currently has more than 43,000 retail outlets around the world. Hallmark’s Topeka plant currently produces about 46% of the company’s greeting cards. It also includes Hallmark’s largest export center. Together, those two Topeka operations employ 750 people in east central Kansas.

Goodyear Tire and Rubber

One of the most admired companies in the world, according to Fortune Magazine , Goodyear employs more than 1,700 people at its rubber manufacturing plant in Topeka. Headquartered in Akron, Ohio, Goodyear has major facilities in North Carolina, Virginia, California, Alabama, Arizona, New York, Florida, and Texas – not to mention overseas facilities in Canada, Belgium, France, Germany, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, an d Australia. Goodyear is one of the largest users of the national and international air transportation system.

Westar Energy

Westar ranks 936 on the Fortune 1000 list, as of the year ended 2007. The company has its corporate headquarters in Topeka. Westar is the largest energy provider in Kansas, and one of the largest in the Midwest, with more than 675,000 customers. Westar employs more than 2,200 people in the region.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 52 Higher Education in the Topeka Area

The region surrounding Topeka is a center for higher education that is recognized around the world. Two of the best universities in the United States are located just miles from Topeka: the University of Kansas (KU) and Kansas State University (KSU). The region is also home to the smaller, and well regarded Washburn University, which is located in Topeka itself, and Emporia State University, which lies less than 50 miles from the State Capitol. Together, these four universities employ more than 15,000 people, and enroll more than 65,000 full-time students. Moreover, KU and KSU draw hundreds of thousa nds of alumni and fans every year to their outstanding Division I athletic programs, as the “Jayhawks” and the “Wildcats” fight for Big XII Conference championships.

The University of Kansas

The University of Kansas at Lawrence sits less than 40 miles to the east of Topeka. The University is widely regarded as one of the nation’s preeminent teaching and research universities, currently enrolling almost 30,000 full-time students. KU is th e State’s flagship liberal arts institution. KU’s mission is to serve as a “center for learning, research, scholarship, and creative endeavor” for the State of Kansas, the country, and the world. Kansas offers what students and alumni call an “ideal campus,” historic, yet wireless at the same time, close to the State’s capital, yet bordering the prairie, with high-tech labs, interactive classrooms, and world-class performing arts venues.

The University of Kansas is, best known as a “b asketball school,” with its Jayhawks continually battling for championships in the Big XII Conference and in the NCAA’s Division I. The University offers outstanding athletic facilities, and its spor ts programs draw several hundred thousand fans each year, from all over the country.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 53 Kansas State University
Kansas State (KSU) is the State’s flagship engi neering and technology institution. Its main campus is located in Manhattan, which lies less than 50 miles to the northwest of Topeka. KSU currently enrolls more than 23,000 full-time students from all 50 states and more than 90 foreign countries. KSU is known as one of the “best buys” in a college education. Princeton Review
ranks Kansas State as the fifth best buy in the country, while Consumers’ Digest ranks it 16 th . KSU offers more than 250 different undergraduate programs, and it grants doctoral degrees in 45 areas of study. Each year the University grants more than $150 million in scholarships and grants.

Like the University of Kansas, Kansas State is member of the Big XII athletic conference. The Wildcats compete in more than two-dozen sports , and draw a few hundred thousand fans to on-campus sporting events each year.

Washburn University

While no match to the University of Kansas or Kansas State, in terms of the size of the student body, Washburn University in Topeka is considered one of the Midwest’s best master’s level institutions. US News and World Report ranks Washburn the sixth best Midwest liberal arts college. Washburn currently enrolls more than 7,000 full-time students. Washburn provides a broad-based liberal arts education, with special emphasis on professional sk ills. The University offers smallclass sizes, accomplished faculty, one-on-one instruction, and stateof-the-art technology.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Commu nity Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 54 Emporia State University

The University is located just 50 miles from Topeka, in the town of Emporia, which lies in heart of northeastern Kansas’ Bluestem region of the Flint Hills, Emporia State University enrolls 6,400 full-time students, who study in more than 100 different majors. Emporia State provides the community with not only an outstanding institution for higher learning, but with a pair of libraries, a museum, recreational facilities, and other cultural offerings.

Topeka Tourism

As a quintessential piece of America’s heartland, Topeka offers the very best of Midwest culture. As the capital of Kansas, Topeka offers a number of government-related attractions, as the City provide families the best, hands-on opportunitie s to learn about how government really works. Topeka also has a number of regionally recogniz ed attractions that draw hundreds of thousands of visitors each year, including a national park dedicated to the Brown vs. the Board of Education decision desegregating public schools. Topeka is home to a dozen art galleries, five performing arts centers, two botanical gardens, a zoo, a number of nati onally known museums, dozens of unique re staurants, and some of the best shopping in the Midwest.

Brown vs. Board of Educatio n National Historic Site

Opened in May of 2004, on the 50 th anniversary of the Brown vs. Board of Education decision to desegregate public schools in Kansas, this Nati onal Historic Site offers a unique look back at what led-up to the decision, and insight into how the decision was made. It’s a story of hope and courag e, and the plaintiffs in the case never knew the impact they would have on the history, not just of Kansas, but of the country. This museum tells the story of these “ordinary pe ople” who stood-up for what was right, and changed history.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 55 Kansas Museum of History

The Kansas Museum of Hi story offers a true “loo k back” at how the State was settled, and what life was really like when Kansas was the western frontier of the United States. The museum has award-winning exhibits about the colorful characters, and the everyday folks, who helped to turn the prairies of the region into the most fertile agricultural area in the world. The museum has restored a full-scale wagon from the Oregon Trail, along with a full-size Cheyenne tipi, as a tribute to those who called the land home long before any European settlers arrived. The museum is home to one of the few remaining 1880 locomotives, displayed in an exhibit that explains th e Topeka, Atchison, an d Santa Fe railroad.

Reinisch Rose Garden and Doran Rock Garden

The Reinisch garden features more than 400 varieties of roses, amidst more than 6,500 species of plants. The garden is one of 23 test plots in the co untry for “hybridizers,” or cross-bred roses. The garden was conceptualized in 1926, and it opened in 1930, at a cost of $30,000. The garden typically blooms from late-M ay through mid-September.

Ward-Meade Park Botanical Gardens

The Ward-Meade gardens compliment the Reinisch Rose Garden, offering more than 500 varieties of flowers, shrubs, and trees on a 2.5 acre area of land. Each individual plant is labeled, making thegarden a perfect place to learn botany and horticulture. WardMeade Park is also home to To peka’s only “water garden.”Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 56 Topeka Zoo

The Topeka Zoo is the passport to discovering hundreds of species of exotic animals, without ever leaving east central Kansas. The zoo offers innovative animal exhibits such as “Discovering Apes,” the tropical rain forest, “Lion’s Pride,” the children’s zoo, and the “Black Bear Woods.” The zoo also offers exhibits featuring animals commonly found in the region surrounding Topeka.

Combat Air Museum

Much more than a mere collection of aircraft, the Combat Air Museum, located at Forbes Field, houses a wide variety of aviation artifacts dating back to the
First World War. The museum offers one of the world’s best collections of aircraft engines, with descriptions and explanations as to how they were developed and how they work. The museum also offers battlefield dioramas, which are full-scale mock-ups of World War One and World War Two
battlefield installations.Forbes Field Airport, Topeka, Kansas – Small Community Air Service Development Grant – August 2010 

## 57 CONCLUSIONS

Despite the relative size of the Topeka catchment area, with almost 500,000 local residents, the Forbes Field Airport has been without scheduled air service since 2007 and without network carrier service since 2003. While the Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority has worked had to
attract an air carrier to re-establish service in the market, it is clear risk mitigation will be required – on a scale that the Topeka community wi ll not be able to support on its own.

This proposal has shown that the Topeka market is strong enough in both population, and in its economic health, to generate at least 650,000 annual origin and destination passengers. If none of Topeka’s passengers “leaked” to other ai rports in the region, it would generate enough local passengers to fill 18 regional jet departures per day at a 99% load factor. While the Forbes Field Airport won’t retain all of these passengers, it gives the Airport confidence that if just a small number of local passengers use local service, that service
will be successful.

The Metropolitan Topeka Airport Authority proposes to use a combination of locally raised funding in conjunction with federal Small Community Air Service Development Grant funding in support of the addition of
scheduled network airline service to the market . The proposed route is between Topeka and Chicago O’Hare – a route the Airport has discussed with SkyWest/United Express as recently as June of 2010. The route would connect Topeka to 121 one-stop destinations with just two frequencies per day.

It has been established in this proposal that the Forbes Field Airport has a sufficient passenger base in its local catchment area to support commer cial air service. Despite this, airlines have found the region unattractive due to the relative proximity of Kansas City International Airport (MCI). But much has changed in the region since 2007. Since then, the Kansas City Airport has lost almost 33% of its available airline seats – making air travel much more difficult for all passengers throughout the region. The Metropolit an Topeka Airport Authority proposes to help ameliorate these seats cuts through local, Topeka service. 

## “Since [2007] the Kansas City Airport

has lost almost 33% of its available seats – making air travel much more difficult for all passengers throughout the region.”