p. 1 

# OAR Box 

# 1828 Prepped by Ollie Stewart



### Document

Number: 

# 150 ) ll-K - 

# (B ) -14 9 Docket Number: 

# A-83-2 7

Printed 11/12/2008 11:12:53 AM Sheet 150 of 325

### EMER&YAN D 

## EwvmoixiMEiNiTA L ANALYSIS , EVC . P. 2 1

165 5 NORT

H POR T MYE RDRIV E ARLINGTON, VIRGINI A 2220 9 703/528-190 0

Augus t 21 , 198 4 

# A-83-2 7

II-K-CBO-14 9 Mr . Rober t Shor t Economi c Analysi s Branc h U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc y Mai l Drop-1 2 Researc hTriangl e Park , N C 2771 1 Subject : EPA

Contrac t No . 68-02-3564 , Wor kAssignmen t #1 9 199 5 IFCA

M Run s Dea r Robert : Attache dar e sunmar y table s whic hcompar e 199 0 nationa l result s fro m some o f th e fift hroun dS0 2 NSP S IFCA

M run s wit hcomparabl e mode l run s usin g 199 5 fue l prices . Tn e boile r population s hav e bee nassume d t o b e identical . Th e 199 0 result s ar e base do na 1987-200 1 fue l pric e forecast . Th e 199 5 result s ar e base do na 1992-200 6 fue l pric e fore cast . Th e 199 0 result s presente di nTable s 1 an d2 ar e consisten t wit h result s presente di nTabl e 2 o f m y lette r t o yo udate dAugus t 6 , 1984 . Ther e i s mor e coa l i nth e 199 5 result s tha ni nth e 199 0 result s fo r th e regulator y

baselin e (se e Tabl e 1 attached ) becaus e th e fue l pric e difference s (coa l versu s oil/gas ) ar e large r i n1995 . Th e 199 5 nationa l impact s presente di nTabl e 2 ar e large r tha nth e 199 0 impacts . However , th e 199 5 impact s ar e no t appreciabl y large r i n man y cases . I f yo uhav e an

y questions , pleas e cal l me .

Sincerely , Ti m Hoga nif TH/c e Enclosure s cc : Dr . A . Weh e

MANAGEMENT /

ECONOMIC S /

ENGINEERIN GTABL E 1 . COMPARISON O F TH E PROJECTE DFUE L MI X I N NE W INDUSTRIAL BOILERS 3 (IO 1 2 Btu ) P. 3

Regulator

y alternativ

e Baselin e

Scrubbing / . Isc , Is r ex .

Scrubbing 0 Year/fue l typ e 199 0

199 5

199 0

199 5

199 0

199 5 

### ga s resi d coa l 

### ga s resi d coa l 

### ga s resi d coa l 

### ga s resi d coa l 

### ga s resi d coa l 

### ga s resid coa l 

### Bo i 100-15 0 

### 2 6 9 9 4 17 9 5 17 56 7 0 3 3 8 7 5 1 6 7 1 5 7 1 5 3 7 0 6 le

r siz e 150-20 0 

### 24 8 6 1 14 8 6 1 1 5 0 6 0 1 2 6 7 6 9 54 5 7 0 3 4 7 5 2 (MMBtu/hr )

200-25 0 

### 1 5 4 6 6 6 33 2 8 33 34 0 14 3 8 1 5 34 33 0 1 4 5 0 3 >25 0



### 8 7 9 2 13 5 4 4 0 9 7 8 7 9 2 1 3 5 4 4 0 9 7 10 7 59 26 9 8 27 66 Referenc e Cas e fue l prices . D Fift hroundS0 2 NSP S analysis , Optio nCas e 1(50/1.2) , 1. 2 1 exemption , 0. 8 l bS0 2 /MMBt uresi dexemption . Regulator y alternativ e 4 Table s 1 an

d2 o f th e Augus t 6 , 198 4 correspondence . l bS0 o /MMBt ucoa l in "Fift hroundS0 2 NSP S analysis , Optio nCas e 0(50) , ho lo w sulfu r coa l exemp tion , 0. 3 l bS0 2 /MMBt uresi dexemption . Regulator y alternativ e 8 i n Table s 1 and2 o f the Augus t 6 , 198 4 correspondence .<-" '

TABL E 2 . COMPARISON O F PROJECTE DNATIONA L IMPACT S OF ALTERNATIVE S0 9 NSP S FO RINDUSTRIA

L FOSSI L FUEL-FIRE DBOILER S (Referenc e cas e fue l prices ) P. 4

Regulatory alternativ e Scrubbing / Isc , Is r ex .

Scrubbing 0 Units/yea r

S0 2 emissio n red. 3 (IO 3 shor t tons ) 199 0 199 5 Ann . cos t increase 3 (IO 6 $ 1982 ) 199 0 199 5 S0 2 emissio n red. 3 (IO 3 shor t tons ) 199 0 199 5 Ann . cos t increase 3 (IO 6 $ 1982 ) 199 0 199 5 100-15 0

76. 9 78. 5

25. 3 34. 8

85. 4 86. 8

40. 2 54. 2 Boile r siz e

150-20 0

57. 7 60. 7

20. 8 27. 5

60. 4 64. 2

30. 9 38. 6 (MMBtu/hr )

200-25 0

38. 4 62. 1

10. 3 14. 2

39. 6 64. 1

13. 4 18. 5 >25 0



### 0. 5 0. 6

-0. 2 

### 0. 2

21. 0 34. 9

34. 7 36. 7 Optio n Cas e les s Bas e Case . D Fift hroun d S0 2 NSP S analysis , Optio n Cas e 1(50/1.2) , 1. 2 l b S0 2 /MMBt u coa l exemption , 0. 8 l b S0 2 /MMBt u resi d exemption . Regulator yalternativ e 4 i n Table s 1 an d 2 o f th e Augus t 6 , 198 4 correspondence . "Fift hroun d S0 2 NSP S analysis , Optio n Cas e 0(50) , n o lo wsulfu r coa l ex emption , 0. 3 I D S0 2 /MMBt u resi d exemption . Regulator yalternativ e 8 i n Table s 1 an d 2 o f th e Augus t 6 , 198 4 correspondence .