APPENDIX 10-C. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE 

USING ALTERNATIVE GROWTH SCENARIOS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10-C.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 10-C-1

10-C.2 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO ................... 10-C-3

10-C.3 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO .................. 10-C-3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10-C.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, National Water 

Savings in Trillion Gallons, Low Economic Growth Scenario ............... 10-C-3

Table 10-C.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario ...................................................................................... 10-C-3

Table 10-C.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic 

Growth Scenario ...................................................................................... 10-C-3

Table 10-C.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, High Economic 

Growth Scenario ...................................................................................... 10-C-4

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 10-C.1.1 Multi-Family Housing Starts Projection Under Alternative AEO2014 

Economic Growth Scenarios.................................................................... 10-C-1

Figure 10-C.1.2 Average Commercial Electricity Price Projection under Alternative 

AEO2014 Economic Growth Scenarios .................................................. 10-C-2

Figure 10-C.1.3 Average Commercial Natural Gas Price Projection under Alternative 

AEO2014 Economic Growth Scenarios .................................................. 10-C-2

10--C-i
APPENDIX 10-C. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE 

USING ALTERNATIVE GROWTH SCENARIOS

10-C.1 INTRODUCTION

 This appendix presents national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) results 

using inputs from alternative economic growth scenarios. The scenarios use the energy price and 

housing starts forecasts in the High Economic Growth case and the Low Economic Growth case

from EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO 2014).

1

Figure 10-C.1.1 shows the projection for new multi-family housing starts under the 

different economic growth scenarios. Figure 10-C.1.2 and Figure 10-C.1.3 show commercial 

electricity and natural gas prices under the different economic growth scenarios. AEO2014

provides projections to 2040. To estimate housing starts for the period 2041−2047, DOE froze 

completions at the level in the year 2040 for all three economic projections. To estimate the 

electricity and natural gas prices trend after 2040, DOE followed guidelines that the EIA had 

provided to the Federal Energy Management Program, which called for using the average rate of 

change for electricity and natural gas price during 2030–2040, respectively. 

Figure 10-C.1.1 Multi-Family Housing Starts Projection Under Alternative 

AEO2014 Economic Growth Scenarios

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

Housing Starts (millions)

Year

High

Low

Reference

10-C-1
Figure 10-C.1.2 Average Commercial Electricity Price Projection under 

Alternative AEO2014 Economic Growth Scenarios

Figure 10-C.1.3 Average Commercial Natural Gas Price Projection under 

Alternative AEO2014 Economic Growth Scenarios

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

Electricity Price Trend (2012=100)

Reference High Low

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

2.30

Natural Gas Price Trend (2012=100)

Reference Case High Case Low Case

10-C-2
10-C.2 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

Table 10-C.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, National Water 

Savings in Trillion Gallons, Low Economic Growth Scenario

Trial Standard 

Level

Efficiency Level Combination Primary FFC NWS

Front-loading Top-loading quads quads trillion gal

1 1 1 0.05 0.06 0.01

2 2 1 0.06 0.07 0.02

3 2 2 0.12 0.13 0.19

4 2 3 0.11 0.12 0.15

Table 10-C.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario

Trial Standard 

Level

Efficiency Level Combination 3% 7%

Front-loading Top-loading billion 

2013$

billion 

2013$

1 1 1 0.38 0.18

2 2 1 0.47 0.22

3 2 2 1.73 0.78

4 2 3 1.40 0.64

10-C.3 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

Table 10-C.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic 

Growth Scenario

Trial Standard 

Level

Efficiency Level Combination Primary FFC NWS

Front-loading Top-loading quads quads trillion gal

1 1 1 0.07 0.08 0.01

2 2 1 0.08 0.09 0.02

3 2 2 0.16 0.17 0.26

4 2 3 0.15 0.16 0.21

10-C-3
Table 10-C.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, High Economic 

Growth Scenario

Trial Standard 

Level

Efficiency Level Combination 3% 7%

Front-loading Top-loading billion 

2013$

billion 

2013$

1 1 1 0.55 0.25

2 2 1 0.68 0.30

3 2 2 2.41 1.06

4 2 3 1.96 0.86

10-C-4
REFERENCES

1

 U.S. Department of Energy-Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2014 with Projections to 2040, May 2014. Washington, DC. Report Number: DOE/EIA0383(2014).

 <http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2014).pdf>

10-C-5