APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA

SPREADSHEETS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10A.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 10A-1

10A.2 INDIVIDUAL WORKSHEETS ........................................................................... 10A-1

10A.3 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS..................................................................................... 10A-5

10A-iAPPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA

SPREADSHEETS

10A.1 INTRODUCTION

The results obtained for the shipments analysis and the national impact analysis (NIA) can be examined and reproduced using the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet available on the U.S. Department of Energy Bu ilding Technologies website

at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/applian ce_standards/residential/central_ac_hp.html

.

There is one NIA spreadsheet covering th e four primary product classes: split system central air conditioners (CAC), single package CACs, split system heat pumps (HP), single package HPs. The spreadsheet is posted on the DOE website represents the latest version and

has been tested with Microsoft Excel 2003.

To execute the spreadsheet requires Microsoft Excel 2003 or a later version. The NIA spreadsheet performs calculations to forecast the change in national energy use and net present value due to an energy conservation standard. The energy use and associated costs for a given standard are determined first by calculating the shipments and then calculating the energy use and costs for all equipment shipped under that st andard. The differences between the standards and base cases can then be compared and th e overall energy savings and present values

determined.

10A.2 INDIVIDUAL WORKSHEETS

The NIA spreadsheet or workbook consists of the following worksheets:

User Inputs Contains user input selections for the following: (1) CAC and HP market by sector, i.e., percent of annual shipments to residential and commercial sectors; (2) CAC a nd HP market by product type, i.e., percent of annual shipments as split systems and single package systems; (3) rebound effect, i.e., percent of energy savings lost associated with more efficient equipment due to increased usage; (4) real discount rates fo r (a) discounting the future dollar value of costs and savings due to standards and (b) future energy savings; (5) year in which to discount future costs and savings; (6) relative price elasticity (selected from pull-down menu); and (7) economic growth scenario ba sed on Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) forecast (selected from pull-down menu).

Summary Contains a summary of NIA results for each of the four primary product classes. Note that NIA re sults are presented separately for

10A-1Energy and Cost Data

Default Distr.

Efficiency Dist.

Fuel Prices split system CAC coil only units and split system CAC blower coil units. The summary table in the upper left corner of the worksheet presents the following for each product class for a specified candidate standard level (CSL): (1) national energy savings; (2) national energy savings discounted to a specified discount rate; (3)

discounted national increm ental equipment (total installed) costs; (4) discounted national operating co st savings; and (5) national net present value (NPV). The NIA results are presented by region (hot-dry, hot-humid, rest of U. S., and entire U.S.) and sector (residential and commercial).

The user can select a CSL by ‘clicking’ on the ‘Select CSL’ button in the top right corner of the summary of NIA results table.

Below the NIA summary table are two pull-down menus for selecting the ‘region’ and ‘sector’. Data in the Base Case and

Standard Case worksheets (explained below) are specific to the selected combination of region and sector. Choosing different combinations of region and sector does not affect the NIA results displayed in the NIA summary table.

Data and figures to the right of the NIA summary table display residential equipment stock saturation data by year, region, and product class.

Contains the per-unit annual ener gy use and cost data from the lifecycle cost and payback period analysis. All per-unit annual energy use and cost data are provided by product class. Within each product class, the data are provide d by CSL, region, and sector. Included as part of the cost data are: (1) total installed costs; (2) repair costs; and (3) maintenance costs.

For each product class, contains the efficiency distributions in the year that standards become effective (2016) for the base case and

each standards case.

For each product class, contains the shipment-weighted efficiency trends, i.e., the forecasted efficiency over time, for the base case

and each standards case.

Contains projected average electricity prices for the three AEO economic scenarios. Projected prices are provided by region and

the nation as a whole.

10A-2Base Case SAC-CO

Base Case SAC-BC

Base Case PAC

Base Case SHP For the split system CAC coil only (SAC-CO) product class, contains the calculations for determining the shipments, energy consumption, and operating costs for the base case. The sheet starts with the stock accounting of the equipment and uses the survival function to calculate the surviving stock. It then performs calculations of replacements, and shipments going into new housing. The sheet calculates replacement units, shipments going into new units, and shipments going to first time owners (existing households that do not already own the product), and aggregates them into total shipments.

For the split system CAC blower coil (SAC-BC) product class, contains the calculations for determining the shipments, energy consumption, and operating costs for the base case. The sheet starts with the stock accounting of the equipment and uses the survival function to calculate the surviving stock. It then performs calculations of replacements, and shipments going into new housing. The sheet calculates replacement units, shipments going into new units, and shipments going to first time owners (existing households that do not already own the product), and aggregates them into total shipments.

For the single package CAC (P AC) product class, contains the calculations for determining the shipments, energy consumption, and operating costs for the base case. The sheet starts with the stock accounting of the equipment and uses the survival function to calculate the surviving stock. It then performs calculations of replacements, and shipments going into new housing. The sheet calculates replacement units, shipments going into new units, and shipments going to first time owners (existing households that do not already own the product), and aggregates them into total shipments.

For the split system HP (SHP ) product class, contains the calculations for determining the shipments, energy consumption, and operating costs for the base case. The sheet starts with the stock accounting of the equipment and uses the survival function to calculate the surviving stock. It then performs calculations of replacements, and shipments going into new housing. The sheet calculates replacement units, shipments going into new units, and shipments going to first time owners (existing households that do not already own the product), and aggregates them into total shipments.

10A-3Base Case PHP

Standards Case SAC-CO

Standards Case SAC-BC

Standards Case PAC

Standards Case SHP

Standards Case SHP For the single package HP (P HP) product class, contains the calculations for determining the shipments, energy consumption, and operating costs for the base case. The sheet starts with the stock accounting of the equipment and uses the survival function to calculate the surviving stock. It then performs calculations of replacements, and shipments going into new housing. The sheet calculates replacement units, shipments going into new units, and shipments going to first time owners (existing households that do not already own the product), and aggregates them into total shipments.

For the SAC-CO product class, contains stock accounting of the equipment that calculates annua l shipments estimates, energy savings, and operating cost savings for the standards case. The energy and cost savings in a single year are the difference between the base case energy use and costs and the standard case energy use and costs for that year.

For the SAC-BC product class, c ontains stock accounting of the equipment that calculates annua l shipments estimates, energy savings, and operating cost savings for the standards case. The energy and cost savings in a single year are the difference between the base case energy use and costs and the standard case energy use and costs for that year.

For the PAC product class, contains stock accounting of the equipment that calculates annua l shipments estimates, energy savings, and operating cost savings for the standards case. The energy and cost savings in a single year are the difference between the base case energy use and costs and the standard case energy use and costs for that year.

For the SHP product class, contains stock accounting of the equipment that calculates annua l shipments estimates, energy savings, and operating cost savings for the standards case. The energy and cost savings in a single year are the difference between the base case energy use and costs and the standard case energy use and costs for that year.

For the PHP product class, contains stock accounting of the equipment that calculates annua l shipments estimates, energy savings, and operating cost savings for the standards case. The energy and cost savings in a single year are the difference between the base case energy use and costs and the standard case energy use and costs for that year.

10A-4Historical Shipments Contains data for annual histor ical shipments of CAC and HP by product class. Data are presented to disaggregate the historical shipments into region.

AEO Residential Housing Contains the projected new housin g construction starts and total housing stock for the three economic scenarios (Reference, Low Growth, and High Growth) by region.

AEO Commercial Floor Space Contains the projected new comme rcial construction floor space starts and total commercial floor space stock for the three economic scenarios (Reference, Low Growth, and High Growth) by region.

New Saturation Resid Contains the historical and pr ojected saturation of CAC and HP equipment in new residential housing by region.

New Saturation Comm Contains the historical and proj ected saturation of CAC and HP equipment in new commercial floor space by region.

Heat Rates Contains the marginal site to source conversion factors that are used in the source energy savings calculations.

Lifetime Contains the probability of survival of CAC and HP equipment at a given age and the average lifetime of a unit.

10A.3 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS

Basic instructions for operating the NIA spreadsheets are as follows:

1. Once the NIA spreadsheets have been downloaded from the Web, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for the worksheet ‘User Inputs’.

2. Use Excel’s View/Zoom commands at the top me nu bar to change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor. The user can change the model parameters listed in the white box labelled “User Inputs”.

3. Once the parameters have been set, click on the tab for the worksheet ‘Summary’.

4. Use Excel’s View/Zoom commands at the top me nu bar to change the size of the display to make the summary table in the upper left por tion of the worksheet fit your monitor.

5. Click the “Select CSL’ button in the upper ri ght corner of the summary table to choose which candidate standard level to analyze.

10A-56. The results are automatically updated and are reported in the summary table for each product class.

10A-6