APPENDIX 10

- C. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE
USING ALTERNATIVE GR OWTH SCENARIOS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10

- C.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ............................... 10

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- 1 10

- C.2 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCEN ARIO

................... 10

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- 3 10

- C.3 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCEN ARIO

.................. 10

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- 3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10

- C.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, National Water Savings in Trillion Gallons, Low Economic Growth Scenario

............... 10

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- 3 Table 10

- C.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

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- 3 Table 10

- C.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

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- 3 Table 10

- C.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, High Economic Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

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- 4

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 10

- C.1.1 Multi

- Family Housing Starts Projection Under Alternative AEO2014 Economic Growth Scenarios

................................ ................................ .... 10

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- 1 Figure 10

- C.1.2 Average Commercial Electricity Price Projection under Alternative AEO2014 Economic Growth Scenarios

................................ .................. 10

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- 2 Figure 10

- C.1.3 Average Commercial Natural Gas Price Projection under Alternative AEO2014 Economic Growth Scenarios

................................ .................. 10

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- 2

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- iAPPENDIX 10

- C. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE
USING ALTERNATIVE GR OWTH SCENARIOS

10

- C.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix presents national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) results using inputs from alternative economic growth scenarios . The scenarios use the energy price and housing starts forecasts in the High Economic Growth case and the Low Economic Growth case fr om EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 201 4 ( AEO 2014 )

. 1

Figure 10

- C.1.1 show s the projection for new multi

- family housing starts under the different economic growth scenarios. Figure 10

- C.1.2 and Figure 10

- C.1.3 show commercial electric ity and natural gas prices under the different economic growth scenario s. AEO201 4
p rovides projection s to 2040. To estimate housing starts for the period 2041−2047, DOE froze completions at the level in the year 2040 for all three economic projections. To estimate the electricity and natural gas price s trend after 20 40 , DOE followed guidelines that the EIA had provided to the Federal Energy Management Program, which called for using the average rate of ch ange for electricity and natural gas price during 2030

– 20 40 , respectively.

Figure 10

- C.1.1 Multi

- Family Housing Starts Projection Under Alternative AEO2014 Economic Growth Scenarios 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90Housing Starts (millions)

Year High Low Reference

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- C

- 1Figure 10

- C.1.2 Average Commercial Electricity Price Projection under Alternative AEO2014 Economic Growth Scenarios

Figure 10

- C.1.3 Average Commercial Natural Gas Price Projection under Alternative AEO2014 Economic Growth Scenarios 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30Electricity Price Trend (2012=100)

Reference High Low

0.90 1.10 1.30 1.50 1.70 1.90 2.10 2.30Natural Gas Price Trend (2012=100)

Reference Case High Case Low Case

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- 210

- C.2 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCEN ARIO

Table 10

- C.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, National Water Savings in Trillion Gallons, Low Economic Growth Scenario
Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level Combination Primary FFC NWS
Front

- loading Top

- loading quads quads trillion gal
1 1 1 0. 05 0.0 6 0.01
2 2 1 0. 06 0. 0 7 0.02
3 2 2 0. 12 0. 13 0.19
4 2 3 0.11 0.12 0.15

Table 10

- C.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits , Low Economic Growth Scenario

Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level Combination 3% 7%

Front

- loading Top

- loading billion 201 3 $ billion 201 3 $

1 1 1 0.38 0. 18
2 2 1 0.47 0. 22
3 2 2 1.73 0.78
4 2 3 1.40 0.64

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- C.3 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCEN ARIO

Table 10

- C.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic Growth Scenario
Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level Combination Primary FFC NWS
Front

- loading Top

- loading quads quads trillion gal
1 1 1 0.07 0.0 8 0.01
2 2 1 0.08 0.09 0.02
3 2 2 0.16 0.17 0.26
4 2 3 0.15 0.16 0.21

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- 3Table 10

- C.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits , High Economic Growth Scenario

Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level Combination 3% 7%

Front

- loading Top

- loading billion 201 3 $ billion 201 3 $

1 1 1 0.55 0.25
2 2 1 0.68 0.30
3 2 2 2.41 1.0 6
4 2 3 1.96 0.86

10

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- 4REFERENCES

1 U.S. Department of Energy

- Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2014 with Projections to 2040, May 2014. Washington, DC. Report Number: DOE/EIA

0383(2014)

. < http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2014).pdf >

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