CHAPTER 15. NET NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

15.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 15-1 

15.2 METHOD ......................................................................................................................... 15-1 

15.3 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 15-2 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 15.3.1 Net National Change in Jobs for IRL by TSL and Scenario ............................... 15-4 

Table 15.3.2 Net National Change in Jobs for GSFL by TSL and Scenario ............................ 15-4 

LIST OF FIGURES 

Figure 15.3.1 Net National Change in Jobs for IRL Trial Standard Levels for 

2012-2042 for the Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL 

Substitution ........................................................................................................ 15-3

Figure 15.3.2 Net National Change in Jobs for GSFL Trial Standard Levels for 

2012-2042 for the Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting 

Expertise Scenario ............................................................................................. 15-3

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CHAPTER 15. NET NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS 

15.1 INTRODUCTION 

The Department defines net national employment impacts from improved efficacy 

standards for incandescent reflector lamps (IRL) and general service fluorescent lamps (GSFL) 

as net jobs created or eliminated in the general economy as a consequence of: (1) increased 

spending on the purchase and installation of new appliances; (2) reduced spending on electricity; 

(3) reduced spending on new investment or capacity by energy companies; (4) changes in 

operation and maintenance costs; and (5) the associated indirect effects of the above. 

Employment impacts include direct and indirect impacts. Direct employment impacts are 

any changes in the number of employees of IRL and GSFL manufacturers, their suppliers, and 

related service firms (See Chapter 13 of the TSD). Indirect impacts are those changes of 

employment in the larger economy that occur due to the shift in expenditures and capital 

investment that is caused by the purchase and operation of more efficient IRL and GSFL 

products. This chapter addresses the indirect employment impacts. 

15.2 METHOD 

The Department based its analysis on an input/output model of the U.S. economy that 

estimates the effects of standards on major sectors of the economy related to buildings and the 

net impact of standards on jobs. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed the 

model, ImSET1 (which stands for Impact of Sector Energy Technologies) as a successor to 

ImBuild2

, a special-purpose version of the IMPLAN3 national input/output model. ImSET 

estimates the employment and income effects of building energy technologies. In comparison 

with simple economic multiplier approaches, ImSET allows for more complete and automated 

analysis of the economic impacts of energy-efficiency investments in buildings. 

 In an input/output model, the level of employment in an economy is determined by the 

relationship of different sectors of the economy and the spending flows among them. Different 

sectors have different levels of labor intensity and so changes in the level of spending (e.g., due 

to the effects of an efficacy standard) in one sector of the economy will affect flows in other 

sectors, which affects the overall level of employment. 

 ImSET uses a 188-sector model of the national economy to predict the economic effects 

of residential and commercial buildings technologies. ImSET collects estimates of initial 

investments, energy savings, and economic activity associated with spending the savings 

resulting from standards (e.g., changes in final demand in personal consumption, business 

investment and spending, and government spending). It provides overall estimates of the change 

in national output for each input-output sector. The model applies estimates of employment and 

wage income per dollar of economic output for each sector and calculates impacts on national 

employment and wage income. 

 Energy-efficiency technology primarily affects the U.S. economy along three spending 

pathways. First, general investment funds are diverted to sectors that manufacture, install, and 

15-1
maintain energy-efficient appliances. The increased cost of appliances leads to higher 

employment in the appliance manufacturing sectors and lower employment in other economic 

sectors. Second, commercial firm and residential spending are redirected from utilities toward 

firms that supply production inputs. Third, electric utility sector investment funds are released 

for use in other sectors of the economy. When consumers use less energy, electric utilities 

experience relative reductions in demand which leads to reductions in utility sector investment 

and employment. 

15.3 RESULTS 

The results in this section refer to impacts on employment for the selected years of the 

standards relative to the base case for each product. A total of five trial standard levels (TSLs) 

are modeled for each of the two lamp technologies, IRL and GSFL. In addition, for each 

technology, the two scenarios that bound the NIA results are evaluated: 

 For IRL, DOE evaluated Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Substitution scenario and the 

Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, BR Lamp Substitution scenario as the high and low range 

energy savings estimates, respectively. 

 For GSFL, DOE evaluated the Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise 

scenario and the Emerging Technologies, Roll-up, Market Segment-Based Lighting 

Expertise scenario as the high and low range energy savings estimates, respectively.. 

For additional discussion of the formulation of these scenarios, see TSD Chapter 10. 

Figure 15.3.1 illustrates the estimated net national employment impacts of the five 

different trial standard levels (TSLs) for IRL under the Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL 

Substitution scenario. A detailed discussion of the TSLs can be found in Chapter 9 of the TSD. 

The figure shows, for a given year over the analysis period (2012-2042), the change in the 

number of jobs in the economy relative to the number of jobs if there were no change in efficacy 

standards. Figure 15.3.2 illustrates the estimated net national employment impacts of the five 

different trial standard levels (TSLs) for the GSFL equipment under the Existing Technologies, 

Shift, High Lighting Expertise scenario. The indirect employment impacts due to amended IRL 

efficacy standards are considerably smaller due to the correspondingly smaller estimates of 

energy savings associated with their adoption. 

15-2
Figure 15.3.1 Net National Change in Jobs for IRL Trial Standard Levels for 2012-2042 

for the Existing Technologies, Shift, R-CFL Substitution 

Figure 15.3.2 Net National Change in Jobs for GSFL Trial Standard Levels for 2012-2042 

for the Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario 

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Similarly, Table 15.3.1 and Table 15.3.2 show the net national employment impacts of the 

amended IRL and GSFL efficacy standards by trial standard level and for the two scenarios that 

bound the NIA results. 

Table 15.3.1 Net National Change in Jobs for IRL by TSL and Scenario 

Jobs (thousands) 

 2012 2022 2032 2042 

Existing, Shift, R-CFL Substitution Scenario 

TSL 1 0.0 0.9 1.3 1.7 

TSL 2 0.6 2.5 3.2 4.3 

TSL 3 1.0 3.9 5.2 6.9 

TSL 4 1.0 5.3 7.0 9.5 

TSL 5 1.0 6.1 8.2 10.4 

Emerging, Roll-up, BR Lamp Substitution Scenario 

TSL 1 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 

TSL 2 0.5 1.6 1.8 2.5 

TSL 3 0.9 3.1 3.4 4.8 

TSL 4 0.8 3.8 4.2 6.0 

TSL 5 0.8 4.5 5.3 6.8 

Table 15.3.2 Net National Change in Jobs for GSFL by TSL and Scenario 

Jobs (thousands) 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

Existing, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario 

TSL 1 1.3 7.5 11.1 12.0 

TSL 2 1.3 7.7 11.4 12.2 

TSL 3 2.8 9.4 14.0 15.1 

TSL 4 7.8 13.6 18.2 18.4 

TSL 5 9.2 14.5 19.3 19.6 

Emerging, Roll-up, Market Segment Based Scenario 

TSL 1 0.2 3.9 5.5 6.5 

TSL 2 1.3 3.8 4.5 5.5 

TSL 3 1.5 9.2 10.6 10.7 

TSL 4 3.9 12.2 13.6 13.3 

TSL 5 4.3 16.1 16.7 15.5 

As shown in the above tables, the proposed IRL and GSFL efficacy standards have a 

small positive impact on jobs, representing well less than 0.1 percent of total U.S. employment. 

The long-term positive and increasing impact occurs because the energy savings in future years 

15-4
are obtained from both current and previous efficiency investments reflected in the installed 

stock of efficient equipment, while investment costs for the equipment occur only once. 

In conclusion, DOE estimates that net indirect employment impacts from a proposed IRL 

and GSFL efficacy standard are relatively small but positive, as shown in Table 15.3.1 and Table 

15.3.2, respectively. 

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15-6

 

REFERENCES

1

 Roop, J.M., M. J. Scott, and R. W. Schultz. ImSET: Impact of Sector Energy Technologies. 

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. July 2005. 

2

 Scott, M. J., D. J. Hostick, and D. B. Belzer, ImBuild: Impact of Building Energy Efficiency 

Programs, April, 1998. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Richland, WA. Report No. 

PNNL-11884. Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC06-76RLO 

1830. 

3

 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc., IMPLAN Professional: User’s Guide, Analysis Guide, 

Data Guide, 1997. Stillwater, MN.