7C -i APPENDIX 7C. XENON AVAILABILITY AND PRICING

TABLE OF CONTENTS

7C.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 7C

- 1 7C.2 SUPPLY ........................................................................................................................ 7C- 1 7C.2.1 Key Players ...................................................................................................7C- 2 7C.2.1.1 Praxair ...............................................................................................7C- 2 7C.2.1.2 Air Liquide ........................................................................................7C- 2 7C.2.1.3 Linde .................................................................................................7C- 3 7C.2.1.4 Iceblick ..............................................................................................7C- 3 7C.2.2 Applications ..................................................................................................7C- 3 7C.2.2.1 Lighting Industry ...............................................................................7C- 3 7C.2.2.2 Medical Applications ........................................................................7C- 4 7C.2.2.3 Space Industry ...................................................................................7C- 4 7C.2.2.4 Semiconductor Industry ....................................................................7C- 4 7C.3 PRICE ........................................................................................................................... 7C- 5 7C.4 IMPACT OF STANDARDS ........................................................................................ 7C- 6 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................... 7C- 8

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 7C.2.1 Xenon Market Share by Key Supplier ................................................................7C-2 F igure 7C.3.1 Xenon Supply and Demand ................................................................................7C-67C

- 1 APPENDIX 7C. XENON AVAILABILITY AND PRICING

7C.1 INTRODUCTION

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has identified high er efficiency inert fill gas as a technology option that can be used to increase the efficacy of incandescent reflector lamps (IRLs). (See chapter 3 of this preliminary technical support document [TSD].) The low thermal conductivity of higher efficiency inert fill gases allows the lamp to operate at higher temperatures, increasing lamp efficacy. Further, the gases’ large mass slows the evaporation of tungsten, lengthening lamp lifetime.

The price of xenon has fluctuated considerably in past years and, although the price has recently been stable, the demand of xenon is expected to increase while supply remains limited. Therefore, DOE has conducted an in-depth market assessment of the supply of xenon and analyzed the potential impact of xenon supply limitations on IRL standard levels. DOE also conducted a life-cycle cost (LCC) sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of higher xenon prices on the consumer. DOE determined that the supply of xenon is sufficiently large and will not affect IRL product availability, and therefore has maintained the use of xenon as a design opti on. This appendix reflects DOE’s preliminary findings.

7C.2 SUPPLY

Xenon is one of three rare gases (along with neon and krypton) produced by cryogenic air separation. Given the low concentration of the rare gases in the air (neon 0.00 18 percent by volum e, k rypton 0.0001 1 percent by volume, and xenon 0.0000 87 percent by volume), the only cost-effective recovery option is a large air separation unit (ASU). ASU xenon recovery is an inherently costly process due to the low volume content of xenon in air. The lower the

c oncentration, the greater the purification cost per liter of rare gas. In February 201 2

, CryoGas reported that world production of xenon was roughly 11 million liters in the previous year (2011)

a nd approximated it to be 10.5 million liters as of early 2012. 1 Most worldwide supply is met by the four largest industrial gas companies : P raxair, Inc. (Praxair), Air Liquide, The Linde Group ( Linde), and Iceblick, Ltd. (Iceblick). Together these four companies control about 75 percent of global rare gas sales. The remaining 25 percent is from various steel mills and industrial gas companies in Russia and China. Figure 7C.2. 1 displays the xenon production relative market share of the four main companies.7C

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Figure 7C.2.1 Xenon Market Share by Key Supplier Source: Betzendahl Gas Consultant LLC, February 2012

The supply of global rare gas es has been generally constant in recent years. The small amount of new production capacity growth has been mainly concentrated in China. Eastern Eur ope is the largest producer of a crude krypton-xenon gas mixture (hereafter “Kr/Xe”), with an estimated 33 million liters produced yearly. 2 Xenon comprises 10 percent of Kr/Xe. 3 Together, China and the Pacific Rim are the second largest producer of Kr/Xe worldwide, roughly 70
pe rcent of which is in China, a region where continued growth of ASU projects is expected. a

7C.2.1 Key Players

7C.2.1.1 Praxair

With 26,000 employees and operations in more than 50 countries, Praxair posted annual

sa les of $11. 25 billion in 2011, an 11 percent increase over 2010 sales. 4 Within Praxair’s industrial gases business, its primary products are atmospheric gases (argon, nitrogen, oxygen, rare gases) and process gases (carbon dioxide, helium, hydrogen, electronic gases, specialty gases, acetylene). Praxair is also one of the four major industrial gas companies and a significant suppl ier of xenon. A 2011 report estimated that the United States was producing roughly 13 mi llion liters of crude Kr/Xe; Praxair controlled 85 percent of total U.S. production. 5

7C.2.1.2 Air Liquide

With more than 46, 2 00 employees in 80 countries, Air Liquide reported revenues totaling 14.5 billion euros in 2011, an increase of over 7 percent from 2010. The gas and services group of the company is responsible for about 86 percent of the total 2011 revenue with group revenue of around 12.8 billion euros in 2011. 6 Besides manufacturing industrial grade xenon, Air Liquide supplies medical gases (oxygen, nitrous, oxide, nitric oxide, xenon, etc.) to hospitals and clinics worldwide and continues to invest in research and development for new medical applications. In

a March 2011 report, it was estimated that Western Europe produces around 19 million liters of

c rude Kr/Xe, 7 and n early 100 percent of this production was under control by Air Liquide and

a Note: Crude Kr/Xe is a rare gas mixture that is a byproduct of ASU processes.7C

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Linde. The report also estimated that total production in the Middle East and South Africa of

c rude Kr/Xe was roughly 15 million liters. In a joint venture with Sasol, Air Liquide produced

ne arly 10 million liters of crude Kr/Xe from a coal gasification plant in South Africa, about 30
pe rcent of which was xenon.

7C.2.1.3 Linde

Based in Germany, Linde has approximately 5 0

, 500 employees working in over 100 countries. In 2011, Linde achieved sales of nearly 13.8 billion euros, an increase of just over 7 percent from 2010. 8 Linde supplies a large range of compressed and liquefied gases on the int ernational market to a variety of industries. Linde has continued investing in medical gas solutions research and development as part of their rapidly expanding healthcare business. Linde

a lso is a major manufacturer of xenon and is the only one of the four major suppliers that is adding significant production capacity, with much of the production capacity growth to be in China. 9 10

7C.2.1.4 Iceblick

Iceblick is a collaboration of companies in Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. Asserting themselves as a global market leader for gas products, Iceblick produces about 60 percent of the world’s supply of neon and over 20 percent of global krypton and xenon. 11 It obtains its raw materials from chemical companies based in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Romania. Iceblick sources raw material from local industries and purifies the gases to sell the gas
pr oducts to their corporate consumers, which are predominantly industrial gas companies but

a lso include the laser, electronic, lighting, and medical industries. According to a March 2011 report by CryoGas, Eastern Europe is the largest supplier of crude Kr/Xe with a total production of approximately 33 million liters per year. 12 Iceblick controlled 70 percent of this total production. Iceblick is also the second biggest global producer of high purity xenon. 13

7C.2.2 Applications Xenon applications include lighting, the medical industry, the space industry

, and the electronics industry, which are described in more detail in the following sections.

7C.2.2.1 L ighting Industry

One of the most common applications for rare gases, in particular krypton and xenon, is li ghting. Using xenon as a fill gas in incandescent lamps increases the life of the filament and slows down it s progressive deterioration, thereby increasing the lamp’s efficacy. 14 Xenon is also used in neon tubes for signage applications. In the automotive industry, xenon-filled headlights

a re used as a less expensive substitution for high-intensity discharge (HID) lamps and comply with federal legislation on vehicle safety. 15 Additional lighting applications of xenon include pulse light sources, ultraviolet lamps, and X-ray lamps.

Demand for xenon in the lighting industry may be greater in the next few years. Incandescent light bulbs will be phased out by federal regulations in 2014. Replacement options include compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), halogen incandescent lamps, or light-emitting diodes7C

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(LEDs). CFLs and halogen incandescent lamps both use rare gases. Fluorescents use krypton and

x enon, while halogen incandescent lamps use xenon. 16 LED production also uses a large amount of gases, however, not krypton or xenon. 17

7C.2.2.2 Medical Applications

Xenon’s anesthetic properties were first discovered in 1939, though it was not used as a medical anesthetic until 1951. 18 It s use as an anesthetic had been largely forgotten until about 1990, mainly because of the high cost. 19 Since that time, there has been a large amount of research devoted to analyzing the pros and cons of using xenon. The first large-scale study that

e valuated the use of xenon anesthesia in humans concluded that xenon is at least equivalent to nitrous oxide-isoflurane in efficacy and safety. 20 Compared to nitrous oxide, xenon’s other benefits include a faster recovery time and environment al friendl iness

. High cost is the only obstacle prohibiting xenon from widespread use as an anesthetic. Currently, xenon recovery in medic al applications is necessary for xenon to remain cost-effective.

Besides its use in anesthesia, xenon is also used in the medical industry to enhance imaging in X-rays, computer axial tomography (CAT) scans, and magnetic resonance images ( MRIs). Xenon makes it possible to obtain better X-rays with reduced amounts of radiation. Additi onally, when mixed with oxygen, xenon enhan ce s contrast in computed tomography ( CT ) imaging and can be used to determine blood flow. 21

Demand for xenon for use in medical lasers has continued to grow, even during the recession. 22 The growth in laser applications is mainly due to heightened demand in medical markets, which have experienced strong growth as a whole on a global scale. 23 Ultraviolet and excimer lasers (for eye surgery) utilize xenon and are the fastest growing segment of the laser industry. 24 More recently, there has been increased research into using medical gases, including

xe non, in the field of neurobiology to exploit their potentially therapeutic use on a variety of brain diseases. 25

7C.2.2.3 Space Industry

Xenon is used in the space industry for ion engines and ion plasma thrusters for satellites. Ion engines depend on electrically charged atoms to generate thrust. While not as powerful, they

a re ten times more efficient than alternative chemical propulsion systems. Using xenon reduces the r equired propellant mass by up to 90 percent, thereby reducing launch costs due to a lighter
sp a cecraft. 26 Newer satellites use xenon ion propulsion systems, which usually have four ion

e ngines, for repositioning. Xenon is well suited for this application because it is easy to ionize, ha s a high density, and low heat capacity. In addition, its high molecular weight boosts the

sa tellites impulse performance. 27 The global satellite industry grew 5 percent in 2011, 28 with future growth of this market continuing to increase as satellite programs grow worldwide.

7C.2.2.4 Semiconductor Industry

Xenon gas mixtures are used in plasma display panels (PDPs) and televisions to improve luminescence, performance, and energy use

. 29 PDPs are commonly used for large TV screens7C

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and compete directly with liquid crystal displays (LCDs). In PDP technology, xenon and neon gas is contained in many tiny cells between two glass plates. Electrically charging the electrodes, which are installed between the glass plates, ionizes the gas and forms plasma. Photons emitted b y the plasma excite the phosphors coating the back of each cell, emitting colored light. 30 Thus, the operation of each cell is similar to that of a fluorescent lamp. The flat panel plasma TV

mar ket share is expected to decrease to roughly 5 percent in 2012 and to keep declining in future years. LCD and LED panels will continue to gain market share. 31 An organic light-emitting diode (OLED) flat panel display is a more recent technology than LED flat panels and does not

re quire a back light. Active matrix OLED (AMOLED) displays used in cellular phones and TVs

a re experiencing rapid market growth, especially in smart phones, with 90 million units sold in 2011, a 97 percent increase from 2010. 32 Their share of the market is expected to continue to increase rapidly in the next few years. While AMOLED technology does not use large amounts of xenon, if its popularity continues to increase as projected, the amount of xenon required could become significant. 33

Xenon is also used in electronic chip manufacturing. Companies utilize xenon plasma etching to manufacture micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS). 34 Demand from the

e lectronics industry increased from under one million liters of xenon per year to almost three mi llion liters per year prior to the 2008 recession. However, it decreased back down to one million between 2008 and the end of 2009 due to the recession. 35 Air Products, an industrial gas company, introduced a xenon recovery system for the semiconductor and MEMS industries in 2009

. 36 Air Products subsequently developed two additional systems: one for larger volumes and one for higher concentrations. The latter system is useful for applications, such as lighting, where the xenon is available in high concentrations. The xenon recovery technology uses vacuum swing absorption to extract xenon from process effluent streams. A mixture containing high leve ls of xenon is recovered and sent offsite for distillation once storage vessels are ful l. Air Products estimates customers could save up to 67 percent on the cost of xenon. 37

7C.3 PRICE Xenon pricing is affected by supply and demand dynamics, which are impacted by global production capacity, as well as the trends in the markets or industries they serve. As seen in Figure 7C.3.1 , xenon demand has been on a steady rise since its lowest point at the end of 2009. The price for xenon fell roughly 75 percent from its 2008 peak of about $25 per liter to about $7
pe r liter in 2010, for large users. 38 The price of xenon is highly dependent on demand for the major applications previously discussed in section 7C.2.2

. As the world economy turned positive in early 2010, the demand for rare gases began to grow. Xenon prices stabilized in early 2010

a nd demand for the rare gas started to rise. Between March 2010 and March 2011, xenon demand rose by roughly 15 to 20 percent (see F igure 7C.3.1 ), driven by growth in the lighting and satellite markets. 39 Xenon demand is predicted to continue to increase, driven by the applications described in section 7C.2

.7C

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Figure 7C.3.1 Xenon Supply and Demand Source: Betzendahl Gas Consultant LLC, March 2011

Figure 7C.3. 1 tracks and forecasts xenon supply and demand (as of March 2011 with for ecasts to June 2011). 40 As previously mentioned, global production of xenon was around 11 million liters in 201 1

. According to the 2012 CryoGas report, the global rare gas market is

a round $250 million and is expected to keep growing even though worldwide net production of xenon is predicted to remain fairly flat through 2012. Without any significant new production,

a long with the decommissioning of old plants and a slight demand increase in the aforementioned key application areas, price increases are expected. Because the increase in

x enon demand from 2010 to 2011 was not that significant, xenon prices are expected to remain fa irly stable through 2012. However, demand for xenon is projected to increase in some of its main a pplication areas, such as lighting and satellite s, which may lead to more dramatic price increases in 2013 and beyond. 41

7C.4 IMPACT OF STANDARDS DOE recognizes fluctuations in the price of xenon are possible. Therefore, DOE conducted a sensitivity analysis to address the potential increases in end-user lamp prices

a ttributable to an increased price of xenon. DOE compared the LCC savings due to purchasing higher efficacy IRLs (as calculated in chapter 8 of this TSD) to LCC savings under scenario s with higher xenon prices. A more detailed description of DOE’s methodology and assumptions follows.

DOE performed an analysis to determine how much the price of xenon could increasebefore it negatively impacted LCC savings. DOE assumed that the cost of the lamp to the enduser would need to increase by at least the same amount as the LCC savings before the cost of xenon negatively impacted consumer savings. Because the LCC savings represent savings to the end -user, DOE divided LCC savings by the markup used in the manufacturer impact analysis of7C

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the previous IRL energy conservation standards rulemaking to determine how much the xenon manuf acturing cost would impact the end-user. 74 FR 34080 (July 14, 2009). DOE assumed that thi s cost increase would be attributable only to the increase in the cost of xenon. Through manufacturer interviews, DOE estimated the quantity of xenon that would be required to achiev e the desired efficacy in an individual lamp. DOE determined the cost of xenon using the most

re cent publicly available xenon pricing data. 42 Using this method, DOE was able to calculate how much the price of xenon could increase before it would negatively impact LCC savings.

DOE analyzed the effect of price on LCC savings, as discussed above, for candidate standa rd level (CSL) 1 in the commercial and residential sectors. For the 60 W PAR38 1,500- hour improved h alogen baseline lamp in the commercial sector, DOE concluded that the price of

x enon could increase to over $ 258 per liter before it started to negatively impact LCC savings. T he average price of xenon based on 2010 data is approximately $ 7 per liter; thus, the price could increase at least 36 times b efore the cost of manufacturing a lamp with higher efficiency iner t fill gas such as xenon would outweigh the efficacy benefits. For the 60 W PAR38 1,500- hour improved h alogen baseline lamp in the residential sector, the price of xenon would have to exceed $183 per liter, an increase of more than 26 times, before negating LCC savings. For the 60 W PAR38 3,000 -hour halogen-infrared (HIR) baseline lamp, consumers face negative LCC

sa vings in both the commercial and residential sectors.

B ased on the analysis above, DOE concludes that CSL 1 is achievable even with potential va riability in xenon prices. DOE will continue to examine the impacts of xenon availability in relation to standards for IRLs during the course of this rulemaking.7C

- 8 REFERENCES

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2 Betzendahl, Richard. “The Rare Gases Market Recovers with Global Economies.” CryoGas International , March 2011. (Last accessed January 9, 2013.) <http://bgcspecgas.com/media/b7896da26ea95008ffff86c47f000101.pdf>

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13 Ibid.

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17 Betzendahl, Richard. “The Rare Gases Market Report: Restraint in Supply Makes for a Better Managed Business.” CryoGas International , S eptember 2010. (Last accessed January 9, 2013.) <http://bgcspecgas.com/media/81c996d1f5b60acffff838dffffe907.pdf>

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33 Betzendahl, Richard. “Still Bullish on Rare Gases: A CryoGas International Market Report.” CryoGas International , February 2012. (Last accessed January 9, 2013.) <http://www.cryogasdigital.com/cryogas/201202?pg=30#pg30>

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35 Betzendahl, Richard. “The Rare Gases Market Report: Restraint in Supply Makes for a Better Managed Business.” CryoGas International , September 2010. (Last accessed January 9, 2013.) <http://bgcspecgas.com/media/81c996d1f5b60acffff838dffffe907.pdf>

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38 Betzendahl, Richard. “The Rare Gases Market Recovers with Global Economies.” CryoGas International , March 2011. (Last accessed January 9, 2013.) <http://bgcspecgas.com/media/b7896da26ea95008ffff86c47f000101.pdf>

39 Ibid.

40 Betzendahl, Richard. “The Rare Gases Market Recovers with Global Economies.” CryoGas International . March 2011. (Last accessed January 9, 2013.) <http://bgcspecgas.com/media/b7896da26ea95008ffff86c47f000101.pdf>

41 Betzendahl, Richard. “Still Bullish on Rare Gases: A CryoGas International Market Report.” CryoGas International , February 2012. (Last accessed January 9, 2013.) <http://www.cryogasdigital.com/cryogas/201202?pg=30#pg30>

42 Betzendahl, Richard. “The Rare Gases Market Recovers with Global Economies.” CryoGas International , March 2011. (Last accessed January 9, 2013.) <http://bgcspecgas.com/media/b7896da26ea95008ffff86c47f000101.pdf>