# INITIAL REGULATORY EVALUATION

PILOT CERTIFICATION AND QUALIFICATION REQUIREMENTS

FOR AIR CARRIER OPERATIONS

OFFICE OF AVIATION POLICY AND PLANS

AIRCRAFT REGULATORY DIVISION ( APO

- 30 0 )

Daniel F. Leach

February 2

, 20 1 2

### 2 

## I. ACRONYMS USED IN THIS DOCUMENT

APD

— Aircrew Program D esignee

ATP

— Airline T ransport P ilot

AVP

— Office of Accident Investigation and Prevention

FAA

— Federal Aviation Administration

FOQ

— First Officer Q ualifications (Short title for Pilot Certification and Qualification

Requirements for Air Carrier Operations )

FOQ ARC

— First Officer Qualifications Aviation Rulemaking Committee

FS T D

— Flight S imulation T raining D evice

ME

— Multiengine

NTSB

— National Transportation Safety Board

NPRM

— Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

APO

— Office of Policy and Plans

PIC

— Pilot in c ommand (Captain)

SIC

— Second in c ommand (First o fficer, Co

- Pilot)

VSL

— Value of a S tatistical L ife



## II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The purpose of this proposed rule is to meet pilot certification and qualification requirem ents

imposed by Congress in Sections 216 and 217 of the Airline Safety and Federal Aviation

Extension Act of 2010. The Act had its genesis in the crash of Colgan Air Flight 3407 that

occurred outside of Buffalo, New York, on February 12, 2009, destroying t he airplane, damaging

residential homes, and resulting in 50 fatalities

. S ection 216 of the Act specifically require s that

all pilots in part 121 air carrier operations hold an air transport pilot ( ATP ) c ertificate by August

2, 2013

, regardless of any rule making. Section 216 also requires sufficient multiengine

experience as determined by the Administrator. Currently in part 121 operations

, only a pilot in

commant ( PIC ) is required to hold an ATP certificate

.

As directed by Section 217 of the Act, t o be q ualified to hold an ATP certificate

, pilots must

have received flight training, academic training, or operational experience that will prepare them

to function effectively in a multi

- pilot environment, in an air carrier operational environment, in

adverse weather conditions, and during high altitude operations. T h is section also requires t he

training must prepare pilots to adhere to the highest professional standards.

### 3 Section 217 of t he Act also requires that holders of the ATP have sufficient flight hours , as

determined by the Administrator, to all ow them to function effectively in an air carrier

o peration al environment. Section 2 17 specifies that the Administrator shall require at least 1,500

flight hours (the current requirement) but allows the Administr ator to grant credit toward flight

hours for specific academic training courses. Section 2 17 further specifies that the total flight

hours shall include sufficient flight hours in difficult operational conditions that may be

encounter e d by an air carrier t o enable pilots to operate safely in such conditions.

Consistent with the requirements of the Act and many of the recommendations of the First

Officer Qualifications (FOQ) ARC , this propose d rule would require the following:

1. An ATP certificate for all pi lots operating in part 121

. The proposed requirement will

r etain the 1,500 hours total time as a pilot required for an ATP certificate but allow

a n ATP certificate with restricted privileges to be held : (a) by military pilots with 750

hours of flight exper ience ; and (b) by baccalaureates from an aviation program who

obtained their commercial pilot certificate with instrument rating from an affiliated part

141 pilot school

, and who have 1,000 hours of flight experience. The ATP with restricted

privileges wou ld allow a pilot to serve in part 121 air carrier operations as a second in

command ( SIC ) only. A first class medical certificate w ill remain the requirement for

exercising the privileges of an ATP certificate (restricted or unrestricted) . The minimum

age for an ATP certificate with restricted privileges would be reduced to 21 years of age.

The current requirement for an ATP certificate will remain at 23 years of age

.

2. A minimum of 50 hours of multiengine (ME) flight experience

. This requirement

would apply not just to pilots serving in part 121 operations, but for all pilots who apply

for an ATP certificate with an airplane category multiengine class rating. This would

include PICs in part 135 air carrier operations that require the PIC to hold an ATP

### 4 certi ficate

, and PICs in p art 91, s ubpart K, Fractional Ownership Programs , which require

the PIC to hold an ATP certificate

. The FOQ ARC also recommended 50 hours of

multiengine time.

3. An ATP Certification Training Program for applicants for an ATP certificate with

an airplane category multiengine class rating or type rating. The FOQ ARC made a

similar proposal. This is a foundational course that the FAA believes should be required

at the certification level to address the gap in aeronautical knowledge of a comm ercial

pilot and the knowledge a pilot should have prior to entering an air carrier environment.

The course would include academic study as well as simulator flight training, including

training in difficult operati onal conditions. This requirement will nec essitate changes in

the ATP knowledge and practical tests. In addition to all pilots in part 121 operations, this

requirement would apply to PICs in part 135 air carrier operations that require the PIC to

hold an ATP certificate

, and PICs in p art 91, s ubpa rt K, Fractional Ownership Operations,

which require the PIC to hold an ATP certificate

.

4. An aircraft type rating for all SICs serving in part 121 operations. The FOQ ARC

made the same recommendation. Currently only PICs are required to hold an aircraft t ype

rating. The FAA has determined that this requirement would improve safety in part 121

operations by further exposing the pilot to an advanced multiengine aircraft and a

multicrew environment. Also the training and testing for a n aircraft type rating re quires a

pilot to be tested to the same standard as the PIC and demonstrate proficiency in difficult

operati onal conditions, including adverse weather and high altitude operations.

5. A minimum of 1,000 hours in air carrier operations to serve as PIC in part 121

operations

. An unintended consequence of the Act’s requirement for all part 121 pilots to

hold an ATP certificate is that the natural mentoring of SICs may not occur. The 1,000

-

### 5 hour requirement would ensure that a pilot would have at least one full ye ar of relevant

operational experience before upgrading to PIC. The FAA proposes to allow a pilot to

count SIC time in part 121 operations as well as PIC time in part 135 operations and in

p art 91, s ubpart K, Fractional Ownership Operations

, that require an ATP certificate per

the operating rule part

.

These are the rule provisions that have cost implications as discussed in greater detail in

Section III below

. The total social cost of the rule provisions identified above is $2,018.5 million

,

with present val ue cost of $782.4 million

. However, since t he ATP certificate requirement for

pilots in part 121 operations is a statutory requirement and , therefore, not a cost of the proposed

rule

, we show separately t he total cost of the proposed rule , which is $443.3 million , with present

value cost of $200.4 million

. T he total social benefit is $896.0 million , with present value benefit

of $384.1 million

.



## Overview of Costs and Benefits

Total Cost

($ mil.) PV Cost

($ mil.) Annualized

PV Cost

($ mil.)

Total Social Co st (Pre

- statutory baseline) $ 2,018.5 $ 782.4 $ 73.9

Costs Attributable to Proposed Rule

(Post

- statutory baseline) $ 443.3 $ 200.4 $ 18.9

Total Benefits

($ mil.) PV Benefits

($ mil.) Annualized

PV Benefits

Total Social Benefit $ 896.0 $ 384.1 $ 36.3

Note: Annualized PV Cost/Benefit is the annual cash flow of the 20

- year annuity that yields the same

present value as the cost/benefit item.

.

### 6 I II

. DISCUSSION OF COSTS AND BENEFITS

A. Total Costs and Benefits of this Proposed Rule

As discussed in more detail below, on a pre

- statute basis, the proposed rule has costs that far

exceed its benefits. However, about 75 percent of these costs ( about $ 55 million annualized ) are

the result of the underlying statutory req uirement that all pilots operating under part 121 have an

ATP by August 1, 2013. If the FAA were not to use its authority to allow credit for academic

credit, these projected costs would rise to more than $87 million annualized

. The proposed

rule’s requi rements of an ATP certificate and aircraft type rating for part 121 SICs, 1,000 hours

of flight experience in air carrier operations prior to serving as a part 121 PIC

— and 50 hours of

ME time and a foundational ATP Certification Training Program for pilots seeking an ATP

certificate with airplane category and multiengine class rating or type rating

— would , as a group

of requirements, enhance the qualifications, experience, and seasoning of pilots. As a

consequence, the FAA believes that the proposed rule wou ld enhance safety by reducing the

accident rate in air carrier operations.

However, we estimate that cost will be minimal for the requirement of 50 hours of ME time

for applicants for the ATP certificate with an airplane category multiengine class rating or type

rating . ME hours are typically acquired while engaged in other commercial aviation activities

such as flight instruction or part 135 air carrier operations on the way to obtaining the ATP

certificate

. A irlin es currently post minimums for ME time fr om 50 hours to as much as 1

, 500

hours. 1



### We also estimate as minimal the costs of the requirement that a pilot have 1,000 hours of air

carrier operating experience prior to serving as a part 121 PIC. According to a survey of

1 Kit Darby, President, www.KitDarby.com , Aviation Consulting, LLC, Peachtree City, GA.

### 7 industry, 2 

### the average number of years for a n SIC to upgrade to a PIC is about five years for

operators which use regional jet airplanes and/or turbopropeller airplanes (hereafter referred to as

regional airlines ) and more than ten years for major airlines. Even without air carrier opera ting

experience in part 135 or part 91, subpart K operations, at an average number of 750 flight hours

a year, an SIC will accumulate the required hours in 1 1/3 years.

Accordingly, in Table 1 below we show the expected costs of the proposed rule based on the

costs of the three remaining requirements

— the ATP Certification Training Program

, the type

rating requirement for part 121 SICs , and the p art 121 ATP Certificate requirement for SICs

.

Table 1 also shows the expected benefits of the proposed rule

. Using a pre

- statu t e baseline, the

table shows the total costs of the proposed rule to be $ 2,018.5 million, with present value cost of

$ 782.4 million and annualized present value cost of $ 73. 9 million. The total benefits of the

proposed rule are $896.0 million, with present value of $ 384.1 million and annualized present

value benefits of $ 36.3 million

. However, s ince the FAA currently requires 1,500 hours for an

ATP certificate, and the requirement for an SIC to hold an ATP certificate will take effect

whether or not a regulation is issued, the cost of $1,575.2 million ($5 82

. 0 million in present

value) associated with this provision are attributable to the statute, not this proposed regulation.

Therefore, u sing a post

- statute baseline, Table 1 shows that the propo sed rule is cost beneficial as

expected costs are $443.3 million ($ 200.4 million in present value), which are now less than the

expected benefits of $896.0 million ($384.1 million in present value). In comparing costs and

benefits, however, we must conside r part 121 operators separately since all of the cost drivers

apply to part 121 operators, while just the cost of the ATP Certification Training Program applies

to part 135 and part 91, subpart K, operators.

2 Owing to the exped ited nature of this proposed rule, questionnaires were sent to the Air Transport Association

(ATA) and the Regional Airlines Association (RAA), who, in turn, distributed the questionnaire to selected

members. Five responses were received from the major air lines and three from the regional airlines.

### 8 As the table shows, for part 121 operators the p roposed rule is cost

- beneficial since present

value benefits, at $225.1 million, 3 

### are greater than present value costs, at 179.0 million. For part

135 operators present value benefits are $159.0 million, while present value costs are $14.8

million, so for part 135 operators the proposed rule is overwhelmingly cost

- beneficial. Although

the FAA does not have an estimate of benefits for part 91, subpart K, operators, these operators

have pilot certification and operating rules similar to part 135 operators. Gi ven the overwhelming

benefit

- cost ratio for part 135 operators, we are confident that the proposed rule is cost

- beneficial

for part 91, subpart K, operators as well.

In addition to Table 1, the table in Appendix 1 presents a different presentation of the c ost

and benefit findings . The table shows the cost and benefits of the proposed rule by rule

provision s and the corresponding section s of the Act to which the provisions are responsive.

3 Some of these benefits are presumably attributable to the statute’s ATP requirement, but as noted in the following

section, we find at most $23.0 million attributable to the statute, with the likely amount muc h less. As Table 1 shows

part 121 benefits to be $46.1 million greater than costs, the proposed rule would still be cost

- beneficial even if the

maximum $23.0 million were attributable to the statute.

### 9 

## Table 1. Summary of Costs and Benefits of Proposed FOQ Rule, 2013

- 203 2

Total Cost

($ mil.) PV Cost

($ mil.) Annualized

PV Cost

($ mil.)

Part 121 ATP Certificate Requirement $ 1,575.2 $ 582.0 $ 54.9

ATP Practical Test $

- $ 23.3 $ 2.2

ATP 1,500 Hour Requirement $ 2,520.4 $ 901.8 $ 85.1

Savings from 750

- hour ATP Military Credit $ (219.8) $ (78.6) $ (7.4)

Savings from 500

- hour ATP Educational Credit $ (725.5 ) $ (264.5 ) $ (25.0 )

Type Rating (Part 121 Operators Only) $

- $ 3.4 $ 0.3

ATP Certification Training Program $ 443.3 $ 196.9 $ 18.6

Part 121 Operators $ 396.6 $ 175.6 $ 16.6

Pa rt 135 Operators $ 32.5 $ 14.8 $ 1.4

Part 91, Subpart K, Operators $ 14.3 $ 6.5 $ 0.6

Total Social Cost

-- Part 121 Operators

(Pre

- statutory baseline) $ 1,971.7 $ 761.0 $ 71.8



## Total Social Cost (Pre

- statutory baseline) $ 2,018.5 $ 782.4 $ 73.9

Costs Attributable to Proposed Rule

-- Part 121 Operators

(Post

- statutory baseline) $ 396.6 $ 179.0 $ 16.9



## Costs Attributable to Proposed R ule

(Post

- statutory baseline) $ 443.3 $ 200.4 $ 18.9

Total

Benefits

($ mil.) PV

Benefits

($ mil.) Annualized

PV

Benefits

Part 121 Benefits $ 525.0 $ 225.1 $ 21.2

Part 135 Benefits $ 371.0 $ 159.0 $ 15.0



## Total Social Benefit $ 896.0 $ 384.1 $ 36.3

Notes: 1. Although a social cost, the cost of the ATP certificate requirement is not a cost attributable to the proposed

rule, as the requirement is specifically mandated by th e Airline Safety Act of 2010.

2. Although incremental total costs of the ATP practical test and type rating are zero, incremental present value costs

are positive. See discussion in the text below.

3. The same flight test qualifies a pilot for both the ATP certificate and the type rating. The incremental present value

cost of the type rating requirement ($3.4 million) occurs because more current pilots have ATP certificates than type

ratings.

4. Owing to a requirement of a preliminary version of this paper, the incremental cost of the type rating requirement

includes the cost of the ATP written exam. As this is an extremely small cost, it is not reallocated here to the cost of the

ATP certification requirement.

5. Annualized PV Cost/Benefit is the annual cas h flow of the 20

- year annuity that yields the same present value as the

cost/benefit item.

6. Column sums may be off one or more units from totals owing to rounding

.

### Costs and Benefits of the ATP Certificate Requirement

As the ATP c ertificate requirement for part 121 SICs is mandated by the Airline Safety Act

of 2010 and is self

- executing , we attribute the cost of the requirement to the statute and not the

proposed rule

.

T he FAA’s Office of Accident Investigation and Prevention (AVP) found little relation ship

between the 1

, 500

- hour requirement and airplane accidents and therefore found little benefit

from that requirement . Only seven of the 31 accidents used for the p art 121 benefit analysis had

SICs with less than 1

, 500 hours. Moreover, the NTSB reports o n these seven accidents have

other causes and contributing factors which are addressed by the proposed rule. Finally, the

seven accidents with SICs wi th less than 1,500 flight hours account for just 10.2 % of our

estimated $ 225.1 million part 121 benefits, or $ 23.0 million, which, accordingly

, is the

maximum that could be attributable to the statute’s 1,500

- hour requirement.

As the 1

, 500

- hour requirement is mandated by statute, we did not further pursue the

estimat i on of the requirement’s potential benefits

.

B. Who is Potentially Affected by this Rule?

The proposed requirements would most affect any individual seeking an ATP certificate with

an airplane category multiengine class rating. The proposed requirements would most affect

individual s wishing to serv e as SIC in part 121 air carrier operations

, as well as individual s

wishing to serve as PIC in part 91 subpart K operations 4 

### or on

- demand part 135 operations

involving turbojets or other airplanes with 10 or more seats, or part 135 commuter operations

(“Sc heduled 135”) involving multi

- engine airplanes with 9 or less seats

. 5 

### Also affected by the

proposed rules would be individual s wishing to serve as PIC in part 121 air carrier operations

, or

,

4 §91.1053(a)(2)(i)

5 §135.243(a)(1)

### 11 more generally, anyone seeking an ATP certificate with an airplan e category multiengine class

rating

. Any certificate holders approved under part 121, 135, 141, or 142 would be affected by

the proposed rule if they choose to offer the proposed ATP Certification Training Program.

C. Principal Assumptions and Sources of Information

• We use a 20

- year period of analysis in order to more fully account for costs that will

accumulate over time as new pilots replace retiring pilots unaffected by the proposed rule. As

the final rule will become effective on August 2, 2013, we us e the 20

- year period of analysis,

2013

- 2032. In calculating present values , we discount back to 2010.

• Discount rate is 7 percent (Office of Management & Budget, Circular A

- 4, “Guidelines and

Discount Rates for Benefit

- Cost Analysis of Federal Programs ,” Oc tober 29, 1992, p. 8

,

www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars/index.html ).

• VSL ($6 million) and value of prevented i njurie s: United States Office of the Secretary of

Transportation. Memorandum: Treatment of the Economic Value of a Statistical Life in

Departmental Analyses

-- 2009 Annual Revision, March 18, 2009.

• Number of rule

- related accidents and associated number of fatalities, number of minor &

serious injuries, aircraft model, and aircraft damage: FAA, Office of Accident Investigation

and Prevention (AVP)

• Marke t value of aircraft and restoration costs: APO update to 2008 of data in Economic

Values for FAA Investment and Regulatory Decisions, A Guide, Section 5. Office of

Aviation Policy and Plans, U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, Wash. , DC, Dec. 31, 2004.

• N umber of par t 121 PICs and SICs by airline and part 135 ATP pilots; and part 91, subpart

K, fractional ownership program PICs: FAA, Flight Standards Servic e , National Vital

Information Subsystem (NVIS) database (Nov. 22, 2010; Dec. 10, 2010 )

### 12 • Pilot growth r ate (0.6%): U.S. DOT, FAA, Aviation Policy & Plans. FAA Aerospace

Forecast: 2010

- 2030. Table 29, "Active Pilots by Type of Certificate", Air Transport, Avg

Annual Growth, 2009

- 2030

• Cost of ATP Certification Training Program and cost of type rating: Industr y survey and

FAA Flight Standards Service

• Percentage of SICs without ATP (major & cargo airlines and regional airlines): Estimated

from industry survey

• Percentage of SICs without type rating (major & cargo airlines and regional airlines):

Estimated from in dustry survey

• Typical number of years for upgrade from SIC to PIC (Major airlines: 10 years, Regionals : 5

years): Estimated from industry survey

• Typical number of years after which PIC will move from re gional airline to major airline (2

years ): Industry su rvey

• Pilot salary data by airline (2008): www.airlinepilotcentral.com

• Number of part 121 retiring pilots (minimum) : Calculated using www.faa.gov, Data and

Research, U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics, Annual Statistics, 2009. Table 12, “Estimated Active

Certific ates Held As of December 31, 2009.” 6



### • Early and medical pilot retirement rate (0.5%) : Email from Kit Darby, President,

www.KitDarby.com , Aviation Consulting, LLC, Peachtree City, GA, dated 12/18/2010

6 Using the midpoint ages of the five

- year age groups, we used the @Risk Excel add

- on to estimate a probability

distribution for “Airline Transport” [ATP] certificates (The program chose the BetaGeneral distribution). Using the

results of a 10,000 trial simulation of the dist ribution of the selected BetaGeneral distribution, we calculated a

frequency distribution by age. To calculate the number of Part 121 ATP certificate holders, we normalized this

distribution for ages 23 to 64 to sum to 1. We used these estimated numbers of Part 121 ATP certificate holders by

year, to calculate the minimum number of retiring pilots by year. To this number we added 0.5% of the total number

of previous

- year pilots to account for medical and early retirements.

### 13 • Fligh t experienc e of military pilots leaving the service: FAA Flight Standards Service, Air

Transportation Division (AFS

- 200), Air Carrier Training Branch (AFS

- 210)

• H iring minimums by airline & airline group and percentage of pilots hired with military

training : Kit Darby , President, www.KitDarby.com

, Aviation Consulting, LLC, Peachtree

City, GA

• Number of baccalaureates with aviation

- related degrees: Aviation Accreditation Board

International (AABI), Gary W. Kiteley, Executive Direc tor, 3410 Skyway Drive, Auburn,

AL

• We assume safety benefits will grow at the annual growth rate of air carrier revenue

passenger miles. Source: U.S. DOT, FAA, Aviation Policy & Plans. FAA Aerospace

Forecast: 2010

- 2030. Table 5, "U.S. Commercial Air Carrie rs' Total Scheduled U.S.

Passenger Traffic", Revenue Passenger Miles, System [Domestic + Int'l], Avg Annual

Growth, 2009

- 2030

.

D. Costs of this Proposed Rule

As discussed above in Section A, “Total Costs and Benefits of this Proposed Rule, ” we

estimate co sts to be minimal for the requirement that holders of the ATP certificate have 50

hours of ME time and the requirement that a pilot have 1,000 hours of air carrier experience prior

to serving as PIC in part 121 operations. As discussed above, we estimate t hat the three

remaining provisions of the rule

— the ATP Certification Training Program, the type rating

requirement for part 121 SICs, and the ATP certification requirement

-- could have cost

implications, although, as already noted, since the latter requirem ent is mandated by the Airline

Safety Act of 2010, we attribute that cost to the statute, not the proposed rule. We estimate the

costs of each of these three requirements below

.

### 14 Cost of ATP Certification Training Program

The requirement for the ATP Certif ication Training Program applies to all new applicants for

an ATP certificate with an airplane category multiengine class rating or type rating . Accordingly,

the ATP Certification Training Program would apply to all pilots in part 121 operations, all PICs

in part 91, s ubpart K, Fractional Ownership Operations , and all part 135 air carrier operations

requiring the PIC to hold an ATP certificate . Part 135 operations requiring the PIC to hold an

ATP certificate with an airplane category multiengine class ratin g are (1) comm uter operations

using multiengine airplanes with nine or fewer passenger seat s (“Scheduled 135”) and (2) on

demand operations using multiengine airplanes with 10 or more passenger seats or turbojets.

The FAA anticipates that the ATP Certifica tion Training Program would be a 7

- day course,

typically conducted by part 142 training center or a part 121 air carrier just prior to initial pilot

training . The FAA anticipates the course would entail three days of ground school and four days

of flight t raining

— two days with an F T D and two days with a Level C or D simulator. Typically

two pilots train concurrently in a simulator and this is reflected in our estimates of simulator cost

per pilot.

In T able 2 are shown the estimated cost factors for the trai ning program

, and in T able 3 are

shown calculations of total cost per pilot.

### 15 

## Table 2 . Cost Factors for the ATP Certification Training Program

Cost Factor Rate Period

Ground school

instructor $ 3 3 per hour

Simulator instructor $ 130 per hour

Level C or D simulator $ 2,000 4

- hr simulator event

FSTD $ 400 4

- hr simulator event

Training pay $ 1,302 per month

Hotel $ 9 0 per day

Per diem $ 45 per day

Sources: 1. Pay rates incorporate a b enefits f actor of 1.302

-- Employee Benefit Research

Institute, www.ebri.org (Benefit FAQs)

2. Other cost factors

-- Industry survey and FAA Flight Standards Service



## Table 3 . Cost per P ilot of 7

- Day ATP Certification Training Program

Item Item Cost

Ground school in structor (3 days) $ 39

Simulator instructor (four 4

- hr events) $ 2,083

Level C or D simulator (two 4

- hr events, 2 pilots) $ 2,000

FS T D (two 4

- hr events, two pilots) $ 400

Training pay & benefits (7 days) $ 304

Hotel (7 days) $ 630

Per diem (7 days) $ 315

Total Cost per Pilot $ 5,771

Note s

. 1

. G round school class sizes are assumed to average 20 pilots.

2 . Simulator instructor, simulator, and F T D costs reflect the fact that flight training is typ ically

done with two pilots concurrently.

3. As the FAA anticipates that the training would take place just prior to initial pilot training,

there would be no incremental travel costs.

In Table 4

, the cost per pilot from Table 3 is used to estimate total and present value costs for

new pilots over the 2013

- 203 2 estimation period. (As indicated in the section on type rating costs

below, current pilots with out an ATP certificate will be able to obtain one at no additional cost

when fulfilling the requirement s for a n aircraft type rating.) We estimate the number of new part

### 16 121 pilots, new part 135 PICs requiring an ATP certificate , and new part 91, subpart K, pilots by

summing the annual change in pilot numbers with the estimated number of retiring pilots for

each of the three categories of pilots. These estimated numbers of new pilots are multiplied by

the estimated cost per pilot of the ATP Certification Training Program. The resulting numbers

are summed to obtain the figures in the “Total Cost of ATP Certif ication Program” column

.

As the table shows, we estimate the total cost of the ATP Certifica tion Training Program

over the 2 0

- year estimation period, 2013

- 203 2

, to be $ 4 43

. 3 million with pres ent value cost

equal to $ 196 .9 m illion.

### 17 Table 4. Cost of ATP Cer tification Training Program , 2013

- 2032

Assumptions for Table Below

7% Discount rate

78,258 No. of part 121 pilots, 2010

7,295 No. of part 135 pilots, 2010

3,203 No. of part 91, subpart K, pilots, 2010

0.6 % Pilot growth rate

3 % Estimated retirement rate, p art 135 and part 91, subpart K, pilots

$ 5,771 Estimated cost of ATP Certification Training Program

Year No. of

Part

121

Pilots Retiring

Part

121

Pilots No. of

New

Part

121

Pilots Part 121 Cost

of ATP Cert.

Program

($ mil.) No.

of

Part

135

ATP

Pilots Retir ing

Part

135

Pilots No. of

New

Part 135

ATP

Pilots Part 135

Cost of ATP

Cert.

Program

($ mil.) No. of

Part 91,

subpart

K,

Pilots Retiring

Part 91,

subpart

K,

Pilots No. of

New

Part 91,

subpart

K,

Pilots Part 91,

subpart K,

Cost of ATP

Cert. Pgm

($ mil.) To tal Cost of

ATP Cert.

Program PV

Factor PV Cost of

ATP Cert.

Program

2011 78,728 1,751 7,339 219 3,222 96 0.935

2012 79,200 1,906 7,383 220 3,242 97 0.873

2013 79,675 2,052 2,527 $ 14,584,019 7,427 221 266 $ 1,533,837 3,261 97 117 $ 673,459 $ 16,791,315 0.816 $ 13,706,715

2014 80,153 2,189 2,667 $ 15,394,290 7,472 223 267 $ 1,543,041 3,281 98 117 $ 677,499 $ 17,614,830 0.763 $ 13,438,269

2015 80,634 2,335 2,816 $ 16,253,498 7 ,516 224 269 $ 1,552,299 3,300 98 118 $ 681,564 $ 18,487,361 0.713 $ 13,181,233

2016 81,118 2,465 2,948 $ 17,015,375 7,562 225 271 $ 1,561,613 3,320 99 119 $ 685,654 $ 19,262,642 0.666 $ 12,835,512

2017 81,605 2, 602 3,089 $ 17,826,192 7,607 227 272 $ 1,570,982 3,340 100 120 $ 689,768 $ 20,086,942 0.623 $ 12,509,138

2018 82,094 2,723 3,213 $ 18,539,681 7,653 228 274 $ 1,580,408 3,360 100 120 $ 693,906 $ 20,813,995 0.582 $ 12,113,935

2019 82,587 2,844 3,336 $ 19,253,354 7,699 230 275 $ 1,589,891 3,380 101 121 $ 698,070 $ 21,541,315 0.544 $ 11,717,048

2020 83,082 2,939 3,435 $ 19,820,945 7,745 231 277 $ 1,599,430 3,400 101 122 $ 702,25 8 $ 22,122,633 0.508 $ 11,246,025

2021 83,581 3,034 3,533 $ 20,388,723 7,791 232 279 $ 1,609,026 3,421 102 122 $ 706,472 $ 22,704,221 0.475 $ 10,786,612

2022 84,082 3,121 3,623 $ 20,907,933 7,838 234 280 $ 1,618,68 1 3,441 103 123 $ 710,711 $ 23,237,325 0.444 $ 10,317,650

2023 84,587 3,183 3,688 $ 21,281,064 7,885 235 282 $ 1,628,393 3,462 103 124 $ 714,975 $ 23,624,432 0.415 $ 9,803,299

2024 85,094 3,236 3,744 $ 21,605, 629 7,932 237 284 $ 1,638,163 3,483 104 125 $ 719,265 $ 23,963,057 0.388 $ 9,293,287

2025 85,605 3,281 3,792 $ 21,881,630 7,980 238 286 $ 1,647,992 3,504 104 125 $ 723,580 $ 24,253,203 0.362 $ 8,790,477

2026 86,118 3,300 3,814 $ 22,011,555 8,028 239 287 $ 1,657,880 3,525 105 126 $ 727,922 $ 24,397,357 0.339 $ 8,264,229

2027 86,635 3,303 3,820 $ 22,044,161 8,076 241 289 $ 1,667,827 3,546 106 127 $ 732,289 $ 24,444,27 7 0.317 $ 7,738,432

2028 87,155 3,289 3,809 $ 21,979,449 8,124 242 291 $ 1,677,834 3,567 106 128 $ 736,683 $ 24,393,967 0.296 $ 7,217,295

2029 87,678 3,274 3,797 $ 21,914,935 8,173 244 292 $ 1,687,901 3,589 107 128 $ 741,103 $ 24,343,939 0.277 $ 6,731,302

2030 88,204 3,218 3,744 $ 21,606,836 8,222 245 294 $ 1,698,029 3,610 108 129 $ 745,550 $ 24,050,414 0.258 $ 6,215,084

2031 88,733 3,170 3,699 $ 21,347,692 8,271 247 2 96 $ 1,708,217 3,632 108 130 $ 750,023 $ 23,805,932 0.242 $ 5,749,444

2032 89,266 3,088 3,620 $ 20,893,723 8,321 248 298 $ 1,718,466 3,654 109 131 $ 754,523 $ 23,366,712 0.226 $ 5,274,175

Total, 2013

-

2032 5 8,648 68,714 $ 396,550,685 4,691 5,630 $32,489,910 2,060 2,472 $14,265,275 $ 443,305,870 $ 196,929,160

Notes.: 1. For the sources of assumptions and “No. of Retiring Part 121 Pilots”, see the “Principal Assumptions and Sources o f Inform ation” section. 2. Retirement rate, part 135 and part 91, subpart K, pilots. We

estimate that the retirement rate of p art 135 ATP and p art 91 K pilots will be less than the part 121 pilot retirement rate, which we estimate to average 3.5 % over the estimatio n period, 2013

- 203 2. 3. Column sums may be off one or

more units from totals owing to rounding.

### 18 Cost of an ATP Certificate/ Aircraft Type Rating

The rule proposes that all SICs in part 121 operations hold a n aircraft type rating for the

aircraft flown by A ugust 2, 2013

, the same date that the SICs are required to hold an ATP

certificate by Congressional mandate. The ATP practical test standards are the same standards

used for a type rating practical test. G iven the statute’s requirement for an ATP certifica te , the

incremental cost of the proposed rule’s requirement for an aircraft type rating is zero. Some

current SICs, however, already hold the ATP certificate. For these pilots, there would be an

incremental cost for the type rating. 7 

### Because of the ir close relationship

, in this section we

estimate ATP and type rating testing costs concurrently

. Far more costly, however, is the

requirement (retained by the proposed rule) that an applicant for an ATP certificat e have a

minimum of 1,500 hours of flight time. A later section entitled, “Cost of the ATP 1,500

- hour

Requirement”, will show the ATP 1,500

- hour requirement to be orders of magnitude more costly

than ATP testing costs.

Table 5 below shows the cost factors for the ATP and aircraft type rating practical te st.



## Table 5 . Cost Factors fo r an ATP Certificate /

Aircraft Type Rating

Cost Factor Rate Unit

Ground school instructor $ 33 per hour

Simulator instructor $ 130 per hour

Check Pilot $ 1 30 per hour

Aircrew Program Designee (APD) $ 143 per h our

Level C or D simulator $ 2,000 4

- hr event

New hire training pay $ 1, 302 per month

SIC pilot pay $ 78 per hour

Hotel $ 9 0 per day

Per diem $ 45 per day

ATP written test $ 150 per test

Sources: 1. Pay rates incorporate a benefi ts factor of 1.302

-- Employee Benefit Research Institute, www.ebri.org

(Benefit FAQs)

2. Other cost factors

-- Industry survey an d FAA Flight Standards Service

7 Very few pilots hold a type rat ing without also holding the ATP certificate.

### 19 T hese cost factors are now used to estimate the cost per pilot, enabling the cost for all

a ffected pilots to be estimated

. As cost estimation per pilot

, and overall

, differs considerably

between current and new SICs, we estimate overall costs for these groups separately.

Cost of ATP Certificate / Aircraft Type Rating per Pilot

— New Pilots

The FAA believes that the ATP practical test/ aircraft type rating for new pilots would be

conducted at the conclusion of initial training, so that the cost of the ATP/ aircraft type rating for

new pilots would be incremental to the initial training costs. Table 6 b elow shows cost estimates

per pilot for new pilots :



## Table 6 . Incremental Cost of an ATP Certificate/ Aircraft Type

Rating per Pilo t for New Pilots

Item Item Cost

Level C or D simulator for flight training (4

- hr event, 2 pilots

-- two hours each) $ 1,00 0

Simulator instructor for flight training (4

- hr event, 2 pilots) $ 260

Incremental cost of type rating/ATP "Check ride" (Incremental cost of APD) $ 52

Training pay & benefits (1 day) $ 43

Hotel (negotiated rate) (1 day) $ 9 0

Per diem (1 day) $ 45

ATP written test $ 150

Total $ 1, 641

Note: Column sums may be off one or more units from totals owing to rounding

.



### As summarized in the table, the FAA estimates that after initial train ing, pilots need two

additional hours of simulator training to be prepared to take the aircraft type rating check ride

(practical test)

. The same check ride qualifies as the practical test for the ATP certificate so the

pilots will qualify for both the air craft type rating and an ATP certificate simultaneously. Since a

check ride is already required during initial training, the incremental cost for the aircraft type

rating/ATP check ride is just the incremental salary and benefits of the Aircrew Program

Des ignee ( APD ) required to conduct a n aircraft type rating or ATP practical test, compared to a

### 20 c heck airman

. We include the cost of the ATP written test here as i t would be required for the

ATP practical test

.

Cost of an ATP Certificate/ Aircraft Type Ratin g per Pilot for Current SICs

The FAA believes that the aircraft type rating for current SICs would be conducted most

efficiently at the conclusion of re current training

, so that the cost of type rating current SICs

would be incremental to the cost of recurrent training . Table 7 below shows our cost estimates

per pilot for current SICs :



## Table 7 . Incremental Cost of an ATP Certificate/ Aircraft Type Rating

per Pilot for Current Pilots

Item Item Cost

Ground school instructor (2 days) $ 26

Level C or D simulator for flight training (Two 4

- hr events, 2 pilots

-- 4 hours each) $ 2,000

Simulator instructor for flight training (Two 4

- hr events, 2 pilots) $ 521

Incremental cost of Level C or D simulator for "Check ride" for type rating/AT P (4

- hr event) $ 1,000

Incremental cost of type rating/ATP "Check ride" (Incremental cost of APD) $ 52

Pilot pay (four 4

- hr negotiated "training days") $ 1,250

Hotel (4 days) $ 360

Per diem (4 days) $ 180

Total $ 5, 389

Notes: 1. G round school class sizes are assumed to average 20 pilots.

2. As the FAA anticipates that the aircraft type rating would be conducted at the conclusion of recurrent pilot

training, there would be no incremental travel costs.



### A s summarized in the table, the FAA estimates that current SICs would need four hours of

simulator training to be prepared for the aircraft type rating. The check ride for recurrent training

is typically done with two pilots concurrently, whereas the aircra ft type rating/ATP check r ide is

conducted with one pilot, so the incremental cost of a 4

- hour simulator event is $2,000

- $1,000 =

$1,000. The cost estimate does not include a charge for the ATP written exam as we estimate the

number of current SICs withou t the ATP written test to be minimal.

### 21 Cost of an ATP Certificate/ Aircraft Type Rating for New Part 121 Pilots , 2013

- 203 2

Using the estimates of cost per pilot for new part 121 pilots, the total cost and present value cost

for the estimation period, 2013

- 2 03 2 , can be estimated

. These estimates are shown in

Table 8 below:

### 22 

## Table 8 . Cost of an ATP Certificate/ Aircraft Type Rating for New Part

121 Pilots , 2013

- 2032

Assumptions

7% Discount rate

78,258 No. of Part 121 Pilots, 2010

0.6 % Pilot g rowth rate

5 Avera ge number of years to upgrade (when ATP certificate is currently required)

$1,641 Estimated incremental cost of an ATP certificate/ aircraft type rating for new pilots

5 Yrs Add'l Discounting

Year No. of

Part 121

Pilots No. of

Retiring

Pilots Gros s No.

of New Part

121 Pilots Total Cost of

ATP Cert./

Aircraft

Type Rating PV

Factor PV Cost of

ATP Cert./

Aircraft Type

Rating PV

Factor PV Cost of

ATP Cert./

Aircraft Type

Rating Net PV Cost

of ATP Cert./

Aircraft Type

Rating

2011 78,728 1,751 0.93 5 0.666

2012 79,200 1,906 0.873 0.623

2013 79,675 2,052 2,527 $ 4,146,660 0.816 $ 3,384,910 0.582 $ 2,413,394

2014 80,153 2,189 2,667 $ 4,377,044 0.763 $ 3,339,226 0.544 $ 2,380,822

2015 80,634 2,335 2,816 $ 4,621,342 0.713 $ 3,294,953 0.508 $ 2,349,256

2016 81,118 2,465 2,948 $ 4,837,966 0.666 $ 3,223,741 0.475 $ 2,298,483

2017 81,605 2,602 3,089 $ 5,068,504 0.623 $ 3,156,410 0.444 $ 2,250,477

2018 82,094 2,723 3,213 $ 5,271,370 0.582 $ 3,067,985 0.415 $ 2,187,431

2019 82,587 2,844 3,336 $ 5,474,288 0.544 $ 2,977,650 0.388 $ 2,123,023

2020 83,082 2,939 3,435 $ 5,635,670 0.508 $ 2,864,889 0.362 $ 2,042,626

2021 8 3,581 3,034 3,533 $ 5,797,106 0.475 $ 2,754,163 0.339 $ 1,963,680

2022 84,082 3,121 3,623 $ 5,944,733 0.444 $ 2,639,532 0.317 $ 1,881,950

2023 84,587 3,183 3,688 $ 6,050,825 0.415 $ 2,510,877 0.296 $ 1,790,221

2024 85,094 3,236 3,744 $ 6,143,108 0.388 $ 2,382,403 0.277 $ 1,698,621

2025 85,605 3,281 3,792 $ 6,221,583 0.362 $ 2,254,988 0.258 $ 1,607,775

2026 86,118 3,300 3,814 $ 6,258,524 0.339 $ 2,119,979 0.242 $ 1,511,516

2027 86,635 3,303 3,820 $ 6,267,795 0.317 $ 1,984,223 0.226 $ 1,414,724

2028 87,155 3,289 3,809 $ 6,249,396 0.296 $ 1,848,971 0.211 $ 1,318,291

2029 87,678 3,274 3,797 $ 6,231,053 0.277 $ 1,722,938 0.1 97 $ 1,228,431

2030 88,204 3,218 3,744 $ 6,143,451 0.258 $ 1,587,584 0.184 $ 1,131,926

2031 88,733 3,170 3,699 $ 6,069,769 0.242 $ 1,465,929 0.172 $ 1,045,187

2032 89,266 3,088 3,620 $ 5,940,692 0.226 $ 1,3 40,892 0.161 $ 956,038

Total 58,648 68,714 $112,750,879 

### $49,922,244 $ 35,593,870 

### $14,328,374

Notes: 1. For the source of the number of retiring part 121 pilots, see the “ Principal Assumptions and Sources of Information” s ection

abov e

. 2. Column sums may be off one or more units from totals owing to rounding.

### 23 Under current rules and practice, virtually all part 121 pilots eventually upgrade to PIC, a

position for which an aircraft type rating and ATP certificate are requir ed. On average this occurs

5 years into the pilot’s career, often at a regional airline. Under the proposed rule, a new part 121

pilot will be required to have an aircraft ty pe rating and an ATP certificate at the beginning of his

or her car e er as SIC. Sin ce the undiscounted costs are the same under the proposed rule as under

the current rule, the incremental undiscounted cost attributable to the proposed rule is zero.

Nevertheless

, there is an incremental present value cost stem ming from the fact that the costs of

the aircraft type rating would be incurred 5 years earlier under the proposed rule

. 8 

### This

incremental cost may be expressed as fol lows: C = PV 1



### – PV 2 

### , where C is the incremental

present value cos t of the proposed rule ; PV 1 

### is the present value cos t of the requirement that new

SICs have an aircraft type rating and an ATP certificate immediately upon entering into revenue

service; and PV 2 

### is the present value cost of upgrading in year 5 under the existing rule. The

table shows the total cost of an ai rcraft type rating over the 20

- year estimation period to be

$112.7 million , but, as indicated, the incremental undiscounted cost is zero. The total cost

column is discounted with the usual discount factors to calculate the first “PV Cost of Aircraft

Type Rating/ATP” column

, which sums to PV 1 

### = $49.9 2 million , the present value cost under

the proposed rule

. In the second “PV Cost of Aircraft Type Rating/ATP” column, the total cost

stream is discounted by an additional 5 years to obtain the present value cos t, PV 2 

### = $35. 59

milli on , the present value cost under the current rule

. T he incremental present value cost of the

8 The FAA believes that a small percentage of new SICs (less than 5%) may leave part 121 operations prior to

upgrading to PIC. By not taking this potential attrition into account, the FAA’s cost estimates for a type rating /ATP

are understated by no more than $1.8 million in present value . A similar underestimation is made in the analysis for

existing SICs who do not currently hold a type rating.

### 24 ATP certificate/ aircraft type rating requirement for new pilots is calculated as the increase in

present value cost: $ 49.9 2 mil

- $35. 59 mil. = $14.3 3 million. 9



### Cost of an ATP Certificate/ Aircraft Type Rating for Current Part 121 Pilots, 2013

- 203 2

F irst

, the cost of an ATP certificate for all current pilots without an ATP certificate is

calculated and then , independently, the cost of an aircraf t type rating for all current pilots without

one is calculated . As already noted, the latter cost will be higher since there are fewer current

pilots with a type rating than with an ATP certificate. The difference between the ATP certificate

cost and the t ype rating cost will be the incremental cost of the proposed rule’s type rating

requirement for current pilots.

The total cost and present value estimates for current pilots for the estimation period, 2013

-

203 2, are shown in Table 9 below:

9 Pilots will need one or more additional aircraft type ratings a s they follow a typical career path from a regional

airline to a major airline. However, the average number of years to upgrade for a major airline is more than 10 years,

which added to an average 7

- year regional airline career, is far into the future. The low cost of the initial aircraft

type rating, combined with heavy discounting, indicates the cost of future additional aircraft type ratings is minimal.

### 25 

## Table 9 . Cost of an ATP Certificate/ Aircraft Type Rating for Cu rrent

Part 121 Pilots

Assumptions

7% Discount rate

0.6 % Pilot growth rate

$ 5, 389 Estimated incremental cost of an ATP certificate/ aircraft type rating for current pilots

9

, 986 No. of SICs, 2010

— regional air lines

29,594 No. of SICs, 2010

— majors & cargo airlines

25.2 % of SICs at regional airlines

85 % of SICs without an ATP certificate

-- regionals

15 % of SICs without an ATP certificate

-- majors & cargo airlines

90 % of non

- type rated SICs

-- regi onals

30 % of no n

- type rated SICs

-- majors & cargo airlines

Cost of an ATP Certificate

Year No. of

Part

121

SICs No. of

Current

Part 121

Pilots w/o an

ATP Cert. Total Cost of

an ATP Cert. PV

Factor PV Cost of

an ATP

Cert ificate PV

Factor

(2.5 Yrs

Add'l

Discount) PV Cost o f

ATP (2.5 Yrs

Add'l

Discount) Net PV Cost

of an ATP

2013 40,177 13,161 $ 70,924,078 0.816 $ 57,895,174 0.689 $

48,885,882 $ 12,413,978



### Cost of a Type Rating

Year No. of

Part

121

SICs No. of

Current

Part 121

Pilots w/o an

Aircraft

Type Rating Total Cost of

an Aircraft

Type Rating PV

Factor PV Cost of

an Aircraft

Type Rating PV

Factor

(2.5 Yrs

Add'l

Discount) PV Cost of

Type Rating

(2.5 Yrs

Add'l

Discount) Net PV Cost

of Type

Rating

2013 40,177 18, 1 89 $ 98,018,226 0.816 $ 80,0 12,070 0.689 $ 67, 560,999 $ 12

, 451,071



### As noted previously , c urrently only PICs are required to hold an ATP certificate and an

aircraft type rating for the airplane flown in revenue service . Based on an industry survey, we

estimate that about 85 % of the SICs for regional airlines and approximately 15 % of the SICs of

major and cargo airlines do not have an ATP certificate. The corresponding figures for an aircraft

type rating are 90% and 30%

. With the additional estimate of 25.2% of SICs at regional a irlines,

### 26 we ca lculate that more than 13 ,000 current (2013) SICs do not have aircraft type ratings. 10 

### As

Table 9 shows, we estimate $70.9 million to be the total cost to upgrade current SICs from

commercial certificates to ATP certificates

. (But, as in the c ase of new pilots , this is the total cost

under both the current rule and the proposed rule, so the incremental total cost is zero.) When

discounted with the usual discount factor

, a prese nt value cost of $ 57

. 9 million is obtained under

the proposed rule

. As in the case of new p art 121 pilots, however, what must be calculated is the

incremental present value cost owing to the proposed requirement that pilots must have the ATP

certificate immediately when in revenue service. As we have no information on the time in part

121 service of current SICs without a n ATP certificate

, it is assume d that, on average, they have

been in service for 2.5 years and have, on average, 2.5 additional years to serve as SICs before

they would upgrade and be required, under curren t rules, to have a n ATP certificate (and aircraft

type rating )

. As the table shows, we discount an additional 2.5 years to obtain the present value

cost of $ 48. 9 million under the current rule . T he incremental PV cost of the earlier requirement

for the air craft type rating is then $ 57 .9

- $ 48

. 9

= $ 9 .0 million.

The analogous independent calculation for the type rating cost yields an incremental PV cost

of the earlier re quirement for a type rating to be 12

. 4 million. $12.4

- $9.0 = $3.4 million is then

the in cremental net present value cost of the proposed rule’s requirement for a type rating in

addition to the statute’ s requirement for an ATP certificate

.

Cost of an ATP C ertificate / Aircraft Type Rating for All Part 1 21 Pilots, 2013

- 20 3 2

T he table below summa rize s the cost of an ATP certificate/ aircraft type rating for new and

current part 121 pilots:

10 A small percentage of SICs also have not passed the ATP written exam. T he estimated total cost for these pilots is

minimal.

### 27 

## Table 10. Summary of ATP Certificate / Type Rating

Cost for All Part 121 Pilots, 2013

- 2032

NPV Cost

ATP Cost

-- New Pilots $ 14.3

ATP Cost

-- Current Pilo ts w/o ATP Certificate $ 9.0

Cost of ATP Requirement $ 23.3

Cost of Type Rating $ 3.4

All Costs of ATP Certificate /Type Rating $ 26.7

Notes: 1. “Cost Current Pilots w/o ATP Certificate ” is the cost of

p roviding an A TP certificate (and type rating) to all current pilots w ith

neither.

2. “Cost of Type Rating” is the cost of type rating pilots already holding

an ATP certificate

.

Estimated Cost of ATP Certificate 1,500

- Hour Requirement

As previously noted f ollowing the Congressional mandate of the Act , the proposed rule

requires all SICs in part 121 air carrier operations to have an ATP certificate by August 2 , 2013.

The FAA proposes to retain the current requirement that ATP holders have at least 1

, 500 hours

of total t ime as a pilot , except for a newly cr eated restricted privilege s ATP certificate under

which (1) p ilots with military training would require only 750 hours of flight time and (2) pilots

with an a viation

- related bachelor degree, who also obtained their comm ercial pilot certificate

with instrument rating from an affiliated part 141 pilot school

, would require only 1

, 000 hours of

flight time. Holders of a restricted privileges ATP certificate would be allowed to operate as

SICs only in part 121 operations and would be requi red to be at least 21 years o ld and hold a first

class medical certificate

.

In this section what is estimated is the cost of the increase in flight time that the ATP

certificate requirement will entail. Only the cost for new pilots is estimat ed , as, given the

depressed hiring environment for pilots in 2009 and 2010, the number of pilots currently with

### 28 less than 1

, 500 hours appears to be small 11 

### , with corresponding minimal costs. For the future, t he

effect of the requirement would be to delay th e careers of pilots in part 121 operations, so the

cost of the increased flight hour requirement can be estimated by the reduced salary and benefits

that the requirement engenders. From a social point of view

, the reduced salary and benefits

reflect s the l oss of pilot productivity the 1

, 500

- hour restriction brings about by delaying the

entrance of pilots into part 121 operations and, consequently, delaying their career path.

A common career path of a pilot in part 121 operations is to start out as a SIC (fi rst officer) in

a regional airline, upgrade to PIC (captain) at that airline and, subsequently, to become an SIC

and a PIC at a major airline. Based on a survey of industry, we estimate the career path of a

“typical” pilot in part 121 operations as follows : Upgrade to regional airline PIC after five years,

move to a position as SIC at a major airline after two years as PIC at the regional airline, and

upgrade to PIC at the major airline after an additional ten years. Under current regulations, a

pilot is el igible for part 121 operations with a commercial pil ot’s license, which requires just 250

hours of flight time

. 12



### There is considerable cross

- sectional variation in the hiring minimums of reg ional airlines,

but the average total hours minimum appears to be about 750 hours

. The number of flight hours

th e FAA assume s pilots can accumulate in one year is also about 750 hours. Accordingly, the

FAA estimate s that the proposed requirement for an ATP certificate with 1

, 500 hours of flight

time would, on average, d elay a new pilot’s part 121 career approximately one year . As pilots

with an aviation

- related bachelor ’s degree

, who also received their commercial pilot certificate

11 Industry survey. Confirmed by email from Kit Darby, President, www.KitDarby.com , Aviation Consulting, LLC,

Peachtree City, GA, dated 12/18/2010.

12 A graduate of a part 141 pilot school o r a part 142 training centers can obtain a commercial license with as few as

190 hours of flight time.

### 29 with instrument rating from an affiliated part 141 pilot school

, would be allowed to hold the

restricted privileges ATP certificate with 1

, 000 hours

, the FAA estimate s that their careers will

be delayed by only one

- third of a year . The part 121 careers of A ir F orce, N avy, and M arine

pilots appear not to be delayed by the proposed rule

, as these pilots appear to typically have more

than 1

, 500 hours of flight time when leaving the service, so they will be eligible for the

u nr estricted ATP certificate . Army pilots typically have at least 750 hours of flight time when

leaving the military, so they w ill be immediately eligible for the restricted privileges ATP

certificate under the proposed rule.

In order to calculate the cost of the ATP certificate 1,500

- hour requirement, we calculate the

earnings and active benefits of a typical pilot in part 121 op erations in a 35

- year career and then

calculate the loss in earnings and active benefits caused by the effect of the hours requirements in

delaying that career

. Regional airline earnings are estimated by averaging salary and active

benefits data for Col gan Air and Mesa Airlines, as this provides a median estimate for the

regional airlines included in a recent study

. 13 

### M ajor airline earnings are estimated using salary

and active benefits data for Delta Airlines as this was the median airline in the same study

. 14



### ( Retirement benefits were not included as they greatly complicate the analysis with little effect

on present value. ) As pilots’ salaries differ by type of airplane flown ( as well as by airline ) , an

average salary for each airline was calculated as a wei ghted average using the number of aircraft

of each type as weights. Hourly salary data by airline for 2008 were obtained from

13 www.KitDarby.com Aviation Consulting. U.S. Airline Pilot Job Market Overview. April 12, 2010. Peachtree

City, Georgia.

14 The active benefits factor for Colgan Airlines and Mesa Airlines 1.233 and for Delta Airlines it is 1.15. Kit Darby

Aviation Consulting, pp. 34

- 37.

### 30 www. airlinepilotcentral.com and were converted to monthly figures by multiplying hourly salary

by the airline’s average credit hou rs per mont h

. 15



### Based on a 35

- year career, the total cost of a one

- year delay in a part 121 pilot’s career is

estimated to be $130,298, with a present value cost of $67,598. 16 

### T otal cost of a one

- third year

delay in a part 121 pilot’s career is estimated to be $43,433, with a present value cost of

$21,226. 17 

### In order to put these result s on a basis comparable to the 2 0

- yea r estimates of the

other costs and of the estimated benefits of this proposed rule, the present value cost s is

annualized to $5,221 per year for a one

- year delay and $1,639 per year for a one

- third year delay

.

Using these estimates the total cost of the ATP certificate 1

, 500

- hour req uirement for the

estimation period 2013

- 203 2 can be calculated, as shown in Table 11 below:

15 Kit Darby Aviation Consulting, pp. 26

- 27.

16 Estimating the cost of a one

- year delay is stra ightforward. For the year of delay, it is assumed the pilot is

accumulating hours at the rate of 750 hours/year as a commercial pilot. And it is assumed the pilot will earn the

same salary as a commercial pilot as he or she will in their first year as a re gional airline SIC.

17 To calculate the cost of a one

- third year delay, it is assumed delayed pilots are paid for 1/3 of a year as a

commercial pilot. All other cash flows are identical to those of the undelayed pilot, with the exception of the last

year w hen the pilot retires at age 65 two

- thirds of the way through the 35 th pay year.

### 31 

## Table 11. Cost of AT P 1

, 500

- Hour Requirement , 2013

- 2032

Assumptions

7% Discount rate

78,258 No. of part 121 pilots, 2010

0.5% Pilot growth rate

25% % of new pilots with military training

1,133 No. of graduates with baccalaureates & aviation

- related majors (2008

- 2009 academic year)

80% Estimated % of graduates with baccalaureates & aviation

- related majors from programs with affiliated part 141 school

7% Discount rate

$1,639 Annualized Cost of 1

- Year Career Delay for Aviation Degree Pilots

$5,221 Annualized Cost of 1

- Year Career Delay for Pilots Subject to Full 1

, 500

- Hour Requirement

Year No. of

Part

121

SICs No. of

Retiring

Pilots No. of

New

Pilots No. of

New

Pilots

with

Military

Training No. of Pilots

w/Bachelor

Deg. from

Aviation Pgm

w/Part 141

School Cumulative No.

of Pilots

w/Bachelor Deg.

from Aviation

Pgm w/Part 141

School No. of Pilots

Restricted by

Full 1

, 500

-

Hour

Requirement Cumulative No.

of Pilots

Restricted by

Full 1

, 500

- Hour

Requirement Cost of One

Third Year

Career Delay for

Aviation Degree

Pilots Cost of 1

- Year

Ca reer Delay for

Pilots Subject to

Full 1,500

- Hr

Requirement Total Cost of

Career Delay 7%

Discount

Factor Present Value

Cost of Career

Delay

2011 78,728 1,360 1,830 917 0.935

2012 79,200 1,512 1,985 923 0.873

2013 79,675 1,656 2,131 533 928 928 670 670 $ 1,521,909 $ 3,497,838 $ 5,019,747 0.816 $ 4,097,608

2014 80,153 1,791 2,269 567 934 1862 768 1438 $ 3,052,949 $ 7,507,058 $ 10,560,008 0.763 $ 8,056,179

2015 80,634 1,935 2,416 604 940 2802 872 2310 $ 4,593,176 $ 12,060,635 $ 16,653,812 0.713 $ 11,873,938

2016 81,118 2,061 2,545 636 945 3747 964 3274 $ 6,142,644 $ 17,092,299 $ 23,234,943 0.666 $ 15,482,424

2017 81,605 2,197 2,683 671 951 4698 1,062 4335 $ 7,701,409 $ 22,635,021 $ 30,336,430 0.623 $ 18,892,004

2018 82,094 2,315 2,805 701 957 5654 1,147 5482 $ 9,269,527 $ 28,622,530 $ 37,892,056 0.582 $ 22,053,522

2019 82,587 2,433 2,926 731 962 6617 1,232 6714 $ 10,847,053 $ 35,054,715 $ 45,901,768 0.544 $ 24,967,520

2020 83,082 2,526 3,022 755 968 7585 1,298 8012 $ 12,434,044 $ 41,832,223 $ 54,266,267 0.508 $ 27,586,218

2021 83,581 2,619 3,118 779 974 8559 1,364 9377 $ 14,030,557 $ 48,954,941 $ 62,985,498 0.475 $ 29,923,957

2022 84,082 2,704 3,205 801 980 9538 1,424 10801 $ 15,636,650 $ 56,389,677 $ 72,026,326 0.444 $ 31,980,550

2023 84,587 2,705 3,209 802 986 10524 1,421 12222 $ 17,252,379 $ 63,809,421 $ 81,061,799 0.415 $ 33,637,765

2024 85,094 2,706 3,213 8 03 991 11515 1,418 13640 $ 18,877,802 $ 71,214,059 $ 90,091,861 0.388 $ 34,939,177

2025 85,605 2,707 3,217 804 997 12513 1,415 15056 $ 20,512,978 $ 78,603,478 $ 99,116,456 0.362 $ 35,924,365

2026 86,118 2,708 3,221 805 1003 13516 1,412 16468 $ 22,157,965 $ 85,977,563 $ 108,135,528 0.339 $ 36,629,245

2027 86,635 2,709 3,225 806 1009 14526 1,409 17878 $ 23,812,821 $ 93,336,198 $ 117,149,020 0.317 $ 37,086,379

2028 87,155 2,710 3,229 807 1016 15541 1,406 19284 $ 25,477,607 $ 100,679,268 $ 126,156,875 0.296 $ 37,325,267

2029 87,678 2,711 3,233 808 1022 16563 1,403 20687 $ 27,152,382 $ 108,006, 654 $ 135,159,036 0.277 $ 37,372,600

2030 88,204 2,712 3,238 809 1028 17590 1,400 22088 $ 28,837,205 $ 115,318,240 $ 144,155,445 0.258 $ 37,252,506

2031 88,733 2,713 3,242 810 1034 18624 1,397 23485 $ 30,5 32,137 $ 122,613,907 $ 153,146,044 0.242 $ 36,986,774

2032 89,266 2,714 3,246 811 1040 19664 1,394 24880 $ 32,237,239 $ 129,893,536 $ 162,130,776 0.226 $ 36,595,051

Total, 2013

- 2022 49,326 59,392 14,848 19,6 64 24,880 $ 332,080,433 $ 1,243,099,261 $ 1,575,179,694 $ 558,663,049

Notes. 1. Column sums may be off by one or more units from totals owing to rounding.

2. For the sources of assumptions and “No. of Retiring Part 121 Pilots”, see the “Principal Assumptions and Sources of Information” section.

### 32 As the table shows, from the number of new pilots

, subtract the estimated number of new

pilots with military training. As discussed above, only army pilots typically leave the military

with l ess than 1

, 500 hours, but they typically have at least 750 hours, qualifying them for a

restricted privileges ATP certificate and so will not be subject to a career delay. For the moment

skipping one column, subtract the estimated number of graduates with baccalaureates from

aviation programs with an affiliated part 141 school. 18 

### The resulting column shows the number

of pilots restricte d by the full 1

, 500

- hour requirement.

In corresponding columns to the right of the numbers of aviation degree pilots and ful ly

restricted pilots, the total number of pilots is calculated

. The annual total cost of career delay for

these pilots is then calculated so as to provide total and present value cost figures on a 20

- year

basis comparable to the other 20

- year estimated cos ts and to the 20

- year estimated benefits of

this proposed rule. For each year, the cumulative number of both aviation degree pilots and fully

restricted pilots are multiplied by their respective annualized costs ($1,639 and $5,221), so as to

account for 2 0 years of annualized costs for new pilots arriving in 2013, 1 9 years of annualized

costs for new pilots arriving in 2014, etc., down to 1 year of annualized cost s for new pilots

arriving in 203 2.

As the table shows, the total cost of the ATP Certificate 1, 500

- hour requirement for the

estimation period, 2013

- 203 2, is about $ 1.6 billion , with present value cost of $ 558.7 million.

Since the FAA requires 1

, 500 hours for an ATP certificate , and the requirement to hold an ATP

certificate will take effect whether or not a regulation is issued, the costs associated with this

provision are attributable to the statute, not this proposed regulation. The FAA further notes that

this rulemaking contains a provision that would permit a pilot to obtain a restricted privileg es

18 We use the projected previous year's figures since students will need at least a year at 750 hours a year to attain

the 1

, 000 hours they would need for a restricted privile ges ATP certificate

.

### 33 ATP certificate at fewer than 1

, 500 hours. This allowance for a restricted privileges ATP

certificate results in a reduction in the costs that would be incurred if the default provision of the

public law went into effect without action by this Agency.

E. Benefits of this Proposed Rule

The FAA expects that this proposed rule would reduce the number of future accidents. The

bulk of the benefits of the proposed rule , particularly with part 121 operations, would be the

value of the averted fatalities and injuries

. The value of averted fatalities and injuries is based on

the value of a statistical life. These values are shown in the table below along with associated

medical and legal costs:



## Table 12 . Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) and Prevented Injuries

AIS

Code Injury Level Fraction of

VSL Value of

Prevented

Injury Medical &

Legal Costs Total Value Cost of

NTSB

"Serious"

Injury

AIS 1 Minor 0.0020 $ 12,000 $ 3,062 $ 15,062

AIS 2 Moderate 0.0155 $ 93,00 0 $ 8,696 $ 101,696

AIS 3 Serious 0.0575 $ 345,000 $ 25,964 $ 370,964 $ 578,113

AIS 4 Severe 0.1875 $ 1,125,000 $ 136,679 $ 1,261,679

AIS 5 Critical 0.7625 $ 4, 575,000 $ 367,416 $ 4,942,416

AIS 6 Fatal 1.0000 $ 6,000,000 $ 162,520 $ 6,162,520



### The Office of the Secretary of Transportation currently estimates the VSL to be $6 million.

Shown in the “Fraction of VSL” c olumn are relative value coefficients for preventing injuries

associated with the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS). These coefficients are multipl i ed by the VSL

to determine the value of a prevented inj u ry by AIS code. 19 

### Adding medical and legal costs 20 

### , we

19 Memorandum: Treatment of the Economic Value of a Statistical Life in Department Analyses

-- 2009 Annual

Revision, March 18, 2009. United States, Office of the Secretary of Transportation.

20 Economic Values for FAA Investment and Regu latory Decisions, a Guide , p. 2

- 2 to 2.4. Office of Aviation Policy

and Plans, U.S. Federal Aviation Administration , Washington, DC, Final Report, Revised October 3, 2007

. The

values in this section are for 2001. We updated these values from 2001 to June, 2010 by the CPI

- U price relative for

### 34 ob tain the total value of avoiding fatalities or injuries by injury level or fatality

. As the NTSB

classifies injuries in just two categories, “Minor” and “Serious”, the FAA Office of Policy and

Plans calculates NTSB’s “Serious” category as the average of AI S categories, 2

- 4.

There would be additional benefits from the corresponding avoided destruction or damage to

aircraft. The value of accident airplanes and the cost of restoring damaged airplanes is shown by

category of airplane in Appendix 3

.

Effectiven ess of the FOQ Rule in Preventing Accidents

For the 10 fiscal years from 2001 to 2010, the FAA’s Office of Accident Investigation and

Prevention (AVP) compiled a list of all part 121 accidents and part 135 commuter and on

demand accidents over that period

, along with the number of fatalities, the number of minor and

serious injuries , aircraft model, and aircraft damage . From this list they determined the accidents

that would have been affected by the proposed rule. AVP assessed that the package of

requireme nts of the proposed rule would have had a likelihood of preventing some of these

accidents. Based on NTSB accident reports, AVP assigned each accident a qualitative

effectiveness rating and corresponding effectiveness score, which represents the likelihood that

the proposed rule would have prevented the accident. 21 

### All scores were reviewed by a 3

- person

panel. For part 121 operations

, the table below shows the categories of qualitative effectiveness

ratings and correspond ing scores and the number of accident s in each category:

June, 2010 compared to June, 2001 (218.0/178.0 = 1.2247).

21 Federal Aviation Administration. Office of Accident Investigation and Prevention

. “An Assessment of the

Effectiveness of Public Law 111

- 216 in Reducing Accid ent Risk,” November 22, 2010

### 35 Table 13

. FOQ Accident Scoring Summary

for Part 121 Operations, FY 2001

- FY 2010

Qualitative

Effectiveness

Score Quantified

Effectiveness

Score Number of

Accidents

None 0 323

Low 0.15 17

Moderate 0.35 6

Moderate

- to

- High 0.55 5

Hi gh 0.75 3

Very High 0.90 0

Total 354

As the table indicates, AVP has assessed that 31 of 354 part 121 accidents would have had some

likelihood of being prevented by the proposed rule

. For the 31 accidents the effectiven e ss scores

(later referred to as “effectiveness ratings”) range from 0.15 to 0.75, meaning that had the

proposed rule been in place the likelihood the accidents would have be en prevented ranges from

15% to 75%. In the following section we describe the three accidents that received the hi gh est

scores of 0.75 in this set, along with the most significant accident to receive the next

- highest

score of 0.55. In the subsequent section we describe three accidents with the highest cost in terms

of people killed or injured and in terms of aircraft damage or destruction . The avoidance of such

high

- cost accidents provides most of the benefits of the proposed rule.

Accidents with High Effectiveness Ratings

The three part 121 accidents that received the highest scores of 0.75 are essentially explained by

crew performance and, consequently, are the accidents in which the benefits of the proposed rule

are most clearly highlighted. In all three accidents the proposed rule would have affected the

eligibility of both pilots, as neither the PIC nor the SIC me t the proposed minimum experience

### 36 f

or their respective positions. T hese accidents are described along with the most significant

accident to receive the next highest score of 0.55.

Great Lakes Aviation Accident at Laramie Regional Airport, June 20, 2007 ( Effectiveness

Rating = 0.75)

On June 20 , 2007 at 1620, a Beech 1900D operated by Great Lakes Aviation landed long and

bounced in visual meteorological conditions ( VMC ) at Laramie Regional Airport. The crew tried

to slow the aircraft

, but left the runway a t high speed where the right prop elle r struck an

electrical box

. A prop eller blade then broke off and struck the right side of the fuselage. The PIC

later noted that the approach was about 14 knots above the targeted speed and the airplane was

“ one dot hig h ” on the glide slope

. No injuries occurred to the 2 pilots and 9 passengers, but the

aircr aft was substantially damaged.

The NTSB determined the probable cause to be the PIC’s improper decision making, his

misjudgment of speed and distance, and his failu re to go aroun d during an unstable approach.

Factors in the accident were improper c rew r esource m anagement ( CRM ) and the SIC's failure to

intervene. The PIC had 2,250 hours of pilot experience and the SIC had 774 hours. The proposed

rule would have requir ed more training, experience, and s easoning in an air carrier environment

,

which may well have led the PIC to go around upon recognizing an unstable approach or could

have led the SIC to intervene.

Air Tahoma Crash at Florence, Ky, August 13, 2004 (Effect iveness Rating = 0.75)

On August 13, 2004, at 0049, a Convair 580 on a cargo flight operated by Air Tahoma

crashed on approach to Cincinnati , Ohio . The PIC was killed and the SIC seriously injured. The

### 37 airplane was destroyed. The PIC had exactly 2 ,500 hour s and the SIC had 924 hours as a pilot,

the majority of which had be en in single

- engine airplanes. The SIC had just three months of

experience as an air carrier pilot.

The SIC was the pilot flying and about 20 minutes before the accident, he commented

mult iple times that the aircraft was pulling to the right and stated “I don't know why.... I don't

know what's going on .” With the runway in sight, the SIC again noted “What is wrong with this

plane? It’s really funny. I got something all messed up here." The PIC eventually advised the

SIC that they had a fuel imbalance because the PIC

, as the pilot not flying

, had erroneously left

the cross

- feed open, which caused a prohibited f uel transfer. The SIC then stated that "we're

going to flame out

, " but the PIC resp onded, "I got the cross

- feed open. Just keep power on."

Ultimately , despite adequate fuel, the aircraft los t power due to fuel starvation and crashed one

mile short of the runway.

Both pilots, especially the SIC, would have benefited from the greater exper ience and

training required by the proposed rule. That greater training and experience may well have

enabled the SIC to identify a lateral center

- of

- gravity (CG) problem caused by a fuel imbalance

.

It also may well have led the PIC to respond with some urg ency when he finally recognized a

fuel imbalance and the possibility of fuel starvation

, owing to his having left the cross

- feed open.

Mesa Airlines Accident at Roanoke Regional Airport, October 16, 2001 (Effectiveness

Rating = 0.75)

On October 16, 2001 at 2114, an ERJ

- 145 operated by Mesa Airlines suffered a hard landing

at Roanoke Regional Airport

. The PIC had briefed the visual approach to runway 33 for which

go

- around was not an option owing to hills. The SIC later reported a quartering crosswind at 1 5

### 38 mph

, gusting to 21 mph . The SIC reported the approach as normal until 300 feet above ground

,

when she called " one dot high " “ Ref + 5 ” ( 5 mph above “reference speed” for the landing)

.

Airspeed then dropped abruptly and the stick shaker activated ( indic ati ng the airplane was

stalling)

. The PIC added power

, but the aircraft landed hard before engines could spool up.

Damage included broken and cracked frames and stringers, popped rivets, skin worn through in

the lower aft pressure vessel, and scraped skin on the lower aft fuselage. NTSB identified the

probable cause as the PIC's failure to maintain airspeed. Factors included the failure of both

pilots to follow company CRM and flight manual procedures, and the PIC's improper approach

briefing.

Both pilots wer e hired during a period of rapid expansion for the carrier and moved through

what the NTSB report described as a “rushed’ upgrade program. The PIC had 2,548 hours

, with

200 in make

- model. The commercially

- rated SIC had 1,850 hours

, with 90 hours in make

- mo del.

The PIC had been an instructor when the carrier hired her 21 months before the accident. She

had accrued 600 hours as an SIC in the BE

- 1900 and , based on seniority, qualified for upgrade to

PIC in the ERJ . The SIC was hired with 400 flight hours, fle w as SIC on the Beech 1900 , and

,

based on seniority, then upgraded to the ERJ as an SIC . Neither pilot had any prior experience in

swept

- wing aircraft

, nor had the carrier provided any jet training on swept

- wing aerodynamics.

The emphasis of the proposed rule on better preparation of pilots for Part 121 operating

environments, more training in energy management, stall recognition

, aerodynamics

, and

professionalism would have directly affected this acc ident.

### 39 USA Jet Crash at Saltillo, Mexico, July 6, 2008 (Effectivness Rating = 0. 5 5)

The most significant accident to receive the next highest score of 0.55 involved a DC

- 9

operated by USA Jet on a cargo flight, which crashed in heavy fog while on approach in

mountaino us terrain to Saltillo, Mexico . The PIC wa s killed and the SIC seriously injured

.

Before the crash , the flight data recorder shows the aircraft alternating above and below the glide

slope and left and right of the localizer throughout the approach

. The aircraft ultimately stalled

and crashed 1,000 feet short and 500 feet to the right of the runway.

The SIC on the flight was an experienced flight engineer but had just 830 hours as a pilot and

75 hours as a Part 121 pilot. A more experienced SIC likely would have called for a go

- around or

may have been willing to intervene and increase the thrust , either action of which would have

averted the accident.

Accidents with the Highest Effective Cost

In this section

, a description of the three accidents with the highest effective cost is provided

.

The avo idance of high effective cost accidents provides most of the benefits of the proposed rule.

Avjet Crash at Aspen, Colorad o , March 29, 2001 (Effectiveness Rating = 0.35)

On March 29, 2001, a Gulfstream III operated as a part 135 charter flight by Avjet

Cor poration, crashed while on final approach to Aspen

- Pitkin County Airport (ASE), Aspen,

Colorado. The airplane crashed about 2,400 feet short of the runway threshold after the flight

crew continued an unstabilized approach below Minimum Descent Altitude wit hout having

adequate visual reference. The crew failed to follow company standard operating procedures for

a proper briefing for the approach, FAA regulations for non

- precision approach procedures and

### 40 sterile cockpit rules below 10,000 feet. 22 

### The PIC also failed to establish a professional

atmosphere in the cockpit. T he crew failed to implement proper division of duties between the

flying pilot and the non

- flying pilot

, as both pilots were looki ng out the cockpit window for the

airport so that n either one w as monitoring the aircraft’s pos ition vertically. The PIC

, SIC , flight

attendant, and all 15 passengers were killed and the aircraft was destroyed.

Corporate Airlines Crash at Kirksville, Missouri, October 19, 2004 (Effectiveness Rating =

0. 3 5)

On October 19, 2004, Corporate Airlines flight 5966, a BAE Systems BAE

- J3201, struck

trees on final approach and crashed short of runway at the Kirksville Regional Airport (IRK),

Kirksville, Missouri. The airplane struck trees short of the runway threshold after the flight crew

continued an unstabilized approach below Minimum Descent Altitude without adequate visual

reference. The crew failed to follow FAA regulations for non

- precision approach procedures and

sterile cockpit rules below 10,000 feet. The crew also fai led to implement proper division of

duties between the flying pilot and the non

- flying pilot

, as both pilots were looking outside the

cockpit window for the airport so that n either one was monitoring the aircraft’s position

vertically. The PIC

, SIC , and 11 of the 13 passengers were killed. The two surviving passengers

received serious injuries and the aircraft was destroyed.

Colgan Air Crash at Buffalo, NY, February 12, 2009 ( Effectiveness Rating = 0.35 )

On February 12, 2009, a Colgan Air, Inc. Bombardier DHC

- 8

- 400, operating as Continental

Connection flight 3407, was on an instrument approach to Buffalo

- Niagara International Airport,

22 “Sterile cockpit rules” refers to FAA rules forbidding nonessential activities by crewmembers below 10,000 feet,

such as nonessential conversations within the cockpit and nonessential communications between the cockpit crews

and the cabin.

### 41 Buffalo, New York, when it crashed into a residence about five miles short of the runway after

the PIC lost control of the a ircraft. The crew failed to follow FAA regulations for sterile cockpit

rules below 10

, 000 feet. The crew also failed to implement proper division of duties between the

flying pilot and the non

- flying pilot

, as both pilots had their attention diverted with the

consequence that neither pilot was monitoring the aircraft’s airspeed or pitch. The PIC

additionally failed to establish a professional atmosphere in the cockpit. The PIC

, SIC

, two flight

attendants, and all 45 passengers aboard the airplane were kille d

. O ne person on the ground was

also killed and the airplane was destroyed.

In each of these accidents SOPs and FAA regulations were not followed owing to lack of

professional behavior initiated by the PIC , but quickly assimilated by the SIC

. Additionall y

, in

each case the PIC was the pilot flying and therefore each SIC had the responsibility to monitor

the aircraft and report deviations but failed to do so. The ATP Certification Training Course of

the proposed rule has multiple modules to address these c ausal factors :

• Operating in a multi

- crew environment

• Introduction to crew resource management

• Aerodynamics

• Knowledge based d ecisionmaking

• Pilot m onitoring responsibilities

, including communications, risk management, decision

making, leadership

, emergen cy operations and difficult operating conditions

• Threat and e rror m anagement

• Energy management

• S tall recognition/recovery

### 42 • Manual Handling Skills

Total Benefits of the Proposed Rule

Table 14 below shows the estimated cost of accidents that would have had some likelihood

of being prevented had the proposed rule been in effect in the period 2001

- 2010 , taking into

account 30 part 135 accidents as well as the 31 part 121 accidents:



## Table 14

. Estimated Cost of FOQ Rule

- Related Accidents, FY 2001

- 2010

Operatio ns No. of

Accidents Fatal

ities Serious

Injuries Minor

Injuries Full Cost

of

Fatality/

Injuries

($ mil.) Full

Amt of

AP

Dmge

($ mil.) Full

Accident

Cost

($ mil.) Wtd Ave. Rule

Effect

iveness

($ mil.) Effective

Accident

Cost

($ mil.)



### Part 121 31 65 14 37 $ 409.2 $ 77.4 $ 486.6 0.344 $ 167.4



### Part 135 30 42 14 7 $ 267.0 $131.3 $ 398.3 0.297 $ 118.3



### Total 61 107 28 44 $ 676.2 $208.7 $ 884.9 0.323 $ 285.8



### Notes. Column sums may be off by one or more unit s from totals owing to rounding.

For the 61 accidents partially attributable to pilot qualification issues, over the 10

- year

sample period we the full accident cost is estimated to be $884.9 million. As the table shows, the

weighted average effective nes s (weighting by full accident cost) for all accidents is 0.323.

Multiplying this figure by the full accident cost yields the effective accident cost of $ 285 .8 that

the FAA estimate s to be attributable to pilot qualification issues. Appendix 4 shows the

cal culations by individual accident.

It is assumed the chance of an accident is equally likely in any year of the 10

- year estimation

period, for an average effective cost of $ 28.58 million per year. Without the proposed rule, it is

assumed that effective cost s would grow at an annual rate of 3.5%, the average annual growth

### 43 rate for air carrier revenue passenger miles forecast by the FAA for the period, 2009

- 2030. 23



### With the proposed rule, these projected costs become , as avoided costs, benefits of the proposed

rule, which are show n for the estimation period, 2013

- 203 2

, in Table 15 below.



## Table 15. Estimated Benefits of Proposed Rule, 2013

- 2032

7% Discount rate

3.5% Estimated a nnual growth rate in benefits

20 Number of years of estimation period

13.880 20

- y ear growing annuity factor

2013

Benefits

($ mil.) Benefits,

2013

- 2032

($ mil.) 20

- yr

growing

annuity

factor,

discounted

2 years Present

value

benefits,

2013

- 2032

($ mil.)

$ 31.68 $ 896.0 12.12335 $ 384.1



### As the table shows, estimat ed total benefits for the estimation period, 2013

- 203 2 are almost

$900 million

. Multiplying the estimated $ 3 1. 68 million in benefits for 2013 by the 20

- year

growing annuity factor, discounted 2 years, yields present value benefits of about $ 384 million.

Th e Number of Avoided Accidents and Avoided Fatalities

In this section we calculate directly key primary variables underlying the expected

benefits of the proposed rule

-- the number of accidents and the number of fatalities we expect the

proposed rule to pre vent

. In Table 16, we multiply the sample number of part 121 and part 135

accidents (from Table 14) by their corresponding weight ed average effectiveness rating to obtain

the expected number of accidents and fatalities that would have been prevented had th e proposed

rule been in effect. 24

23 U.S. DOT, FAA, Aviation Policy & Plans. FAA Aerospace Forecast: 2010

- 2030. Table 5, "U.S. Commercial Air

Carriers' Total Scheduled U.S. Passenger Traffic", Revenue Passenger Miles, System [Domestic + Int'l], Avg

Annual Growth, 2009

- 2030

24 What is calculated here is the “effective” number of accidents and fatalities avoided since the most costly

### 44 

## Table 16. Number of Accidents and Fatalities Preventable by Proposed Rule

Using 2001

- 2010 Sample Period Accidents

Operations No. of

Accidents Fatal

ities Wtd

Ave.

Effect

iveness Expected

No. of

Accidents

Avoid ed Expected

No. of

Fatalities

Avoided

Part 121 31 65 0.344 10.7 22.4

Part 135 30 42 0.297 8.9 12.5

Total 61 107 0.323 19.7 34.6



### Note: The sum of part 121 and part 135 accidents and fatalities avoided may not equal the

“Total” number owing to the we ighting scheme and/or rounding error

In Table 17 we use the average number of expected accidents and fatalities avoided per

year from the Table 16 analysis to project the total number of accidents and fatalities that , with

the proposed rule, would be pr evented over the 20

- year estimation period, 2013

- 2032. As with

benefits , we assume the number of accidents and fatalities would grow at the annual rate of

3.5%. Table 17 shows that 61.3 is the number of accidents that would be prevented by the

proposed rul e over the 20

- year period, 2013

- 2032 (33.4 for p art 121 and 27.9 for p art 135 )

. For

fatalities Table 17 shows that 109.2 is the number tha t would be prevented (70.1 for part 121 and

39.1 for p art 135).

accidents (or, equivalently, the most beneficial avoided accidents) have greater weight in determ in ing weighted

average effectiveness

.

### 45 

## Table 17. Number of Accidents and Fatalities Avoided Under the Proposed

Rule, Estimation Period, 2013

- 2032

Year Part 121

Accidents

Avoided Part 135

Accidents

Avoided Part 121

Fatalities

Avoided Part 135

Fatalities

Avoided

2010 1.1 0.9 2.2 1.2

2011 1.1 0.9 2.3 1.3

2012 1.1 1.0 2.4 1.3

2013 1.2 1.0 2.5 1.4

2014 1.2 1.0 2.6 1.4

2015 1.3 1.1 2.7 1.5

2016 1.3 1.1 2.7 1.5

2017 1.4 1.1 2.8 1.6

2018 1.4 1.2 2.9 1.6

2019 1.5 1.2 3.0 1.7

2020 1.5 1.3 3.2 1.8

2021 1.6 1.3 3.3 1.8

2022 1.6 1.3 3.4 1.9

2023 1.7 1.4 3.5 2.0

2024 1.7 1.4 3.6 2.0

2 025 1.8 1.5 3.7 2.1

2026 1.8 1.5 3.9 2.2

2027 1.9 1.6 4.0 2.2

2028 2.0 1.7 4.2 2.3

2029 2.1 1.7 4.3 2.4

2030 2.1 1.8 4.5 2.5

2031 2.2 1.8 4.6 2.6

2032 2.3 1.9 4.8 2.7

Subtotal 33.4 27.9 70.1 39.1

Total 61.4 109.2



### Note: Sums may not equal “Subtotal” or “Total” owing to rounding error.

### 46 

## APPENDIX 1

— Costs and Benefits of the Proposed Rule by Rule Provision and Corresponding Public Law Provision

Public Law Provision NPRM Proposal Total

Cost 1 

### PV

Cost 1 

### Total

Benefit 1 

### PV

Benefit 1 

### Net Total

Benefi t Net PV

Benefit

“All flight crewmembers

– have obtained an airline transport pilot certificate under part

61 of title 14, Code of Federal Regulations[.]” (Section 216 of P.L.) ATP certificate for all part

121 pilots Part 121

$ 1,575.2 Part 121

$ 582.0 Pa rt

121 3

At most

$ 53.8 Part

121 3

At most

$ 23.0 Part 121

($ 1,521.4) Part 121

($ 559.0 )

ATP practical test

1,500 hour requirement $ 0.0

$ 1 ,575.2 2 $ 23.3

$ 558.7 2

“ensure that . . . all flight crewmembers

– have appropriate multi

- engine air craft flight

experience, as determined by the Administrator.” (Section 216 of the P.L.) 50 hours aeronautical

experience in class of

airplane for ATP minimal

cost - - - - -

“ensure that . . . all flight crewmembers

– have appropriate multi

- engine aircraft flight

experience, as determined by the Administrator.” (Section 216 of the P.L.) Aircraft type rating for all

pilots operating in part 121 Part 121

$ 0.0 Part 121

$ 3.4 Part

121 4

At least

$ 471.2 Part

121 4

At least

$ 202.1 Part

121

At least

$ 74.6 Par t

121

At least

$ 23.1 “The Administrator . . . shall conduct a rulemaking proceeding to amend part 61 of title

14, Code of Federal Regulations, to modify requirements for the issuance of an airline

transport pilot certificate.”

“MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS. To be qualified to receive an airline transport pilot

certificate . . . an individual shall have received flight training, academic training, or

operational experience that will prepare a pilot, at a minimum, to

— (A) function effectively in a multipilot environm ent;

(B) function effectively in adverse weather conditions, including icing conditions;

(C) function effectively during high altitude operations;

(D) adhere to the highest professional standards; and

(E) function effectively in an air carrier operational environment.”

“The total flight hours required by the Administrator . . . shall include sufficient flight

hours, as determined by the Administrator, in difficult operational conditions that may

be encountered by an air carrier to enable a pilot to operate safely in such conditions.”

(Section 217 of the P.L.) ATP certification training

program for multiengine

class rating or type rating Part 121

$ 396.6 Part 121

$ 175.6

Part

135 5

$ 32.5

Part 91

$ 14.3 Part

135 5

$ 14.8

Part 91

$ 6.5 Part

135 5

$ 371.0

Part 91 6

No

estimate Part

135 5

$ 159.0

Part 91 6

No

estimate Part

135 5

$338.5

Part 91 6

No estimate Part

135 5

$ 144.2

Part 91 6

No

estimate

“The Administrator may allow specific academic training courses . . . to be credited

toward total flight hours[.]” (Se ction 217 of the P.L.) ATP w/restricted privileges

based on academic or military

training The reduced cost of obtaining an ATP with fewer than 1,500 hours has been

accounted for in the $1,575.2 cost of the ATP provision. The proposal reduces total

cost of the ATP provision by $ 7 2 5.5 and PV cost by $ 264.5.

“ensure that . . . all flight crewmembers

– have appropriate multi

- engine aircraft flight

experience, as determined by the Administrator.” (Section 216 of the P.L.) 1,000 hours in air carrier

operations to serve as PIC in

part 121 minimal

cost - - - - -

Total Costs and Benefits of the Rule $ 2,018.5 $ 782.4 $ 896.0 $ 384.1 ($ 1,122.5) ($ 398. 3)

Notes:

1 All cost and benefit figures are in millions of dollars.

2 Total cost without the academic cred iting provision is $2,520.4. Present value cost is $901.8.

3 Maximum benefits attributable to accidents that involved SICs with fewer than 1,500 hours (assumes no other causes for the ac cidents).

4 At least 90% of the part 121 benefits come from the typ e rating and the ATP certification training program.

5 All costs and benefits for part 135 operators are attributable to the ATP certification training program.

6 The FAA does not have an estimate for part 91 operators. Given the overwhelming benefit to part 135, the FAA is confident that the proposed rule is cost

- beneficial for

91K operators. Accordingly, Net benefits shown in the “Total Costs and Benefits of the Rule” row are calculated using the corresponding cost and benefit figures in that row

and not by summing column totals.

### 47 

## APPENDIX 2

Table 1. Summary of Costs and Benefits of Proposed FOQ Rule, 2013

- 2032

(3% Discount Rate)

Total Cost

($ mil.) PV Cost

($ mil.) Annualized

PV Cost

($ mil.)

Part 121 ATP Certificate Requirement $ 1,357.8 $ 869.2 $ 58

. 4

ATP Practical Test $

- $ 17.0 $ 1

. 1

ATP 1,500 Hour Requirement $ 2,158.2 $ 1,359.1 $ 91

. 4

Savings from 750

- hour ATP Military Training Cred it $ (188.2) $ (118.5 ) $ ( 8.0 )

Savings from 500

- hour ATP Aviation Degree Credit $ (612.2 ) $ (388.5 ) $ ( 26.1 )

Type Rating (Part 121 Operators Only) $

- $ 1.7 $ 0. 1

ATP Cer tification Training Program $ 443.3 $ 305.5 $ 20.5

Part 121 Operators $ 272.9 $ 18.3

Part 135 Operators $ 32.5 $ 22.6 $ 1.5

Part 91, Subpart K, Operators $ 14 .3 $ 9.9 $ 0.7

Total Social Cost

-- Part 121 Operators

(Pre

- statutory baseline) $ 1,754.4 $ 1,143.9 $ 7 6.9



## Total Social Cost (Pre

- statutory baseline) $ 1,801.1 $ 1,176.5 $ 79.1

Costs Attributable to Pro posed Rule

-- Part 121 Operators

(Post

- statutory baseline) $ 396.6 $ 274

. 7 $ 18.5



## Costs Attributable to Proposed Rule

(Post

- statutory baseline) $ 443.3 $ 307.3 $ 20.7

Total Benefits

($ mil.) PV

Benefits

($ mil .) Ann. PV

Benefits

($ mil.)

Part 121 Benefits $ 525.0 $ 355.9 $ 23.9

Part 135 Benefits $ 371.0 $ 251.5 $ 16.9



## Total Social Benefit $ 896.0 $ 607.4 $ 40.8

Notes: 1. Although a social cost, the cost of the ATP certificate requirement is not a cost attributable to the proposed rule, as the requirement is

specifically mandated by the Airline Safety Act of 2010.

2. Although incremental total costs of the ATP practical test and type rating are zero, incremental present value costs are positive. See discussion

in the text below.

3. The same flight test qualifies a pilot for both the ATP certificate and the type rating. The incremental present value cos t of the type rating

requirement ($3.4 million) oc curs because more current pilots have ATP certificates than type ratings.

4. Owing to a requirement of a preliminary version of this paper, the incremental cost of the type rating requirement include s the cost of the ATP

written exam. As this is an extreme ly small cost, it was not reallocated here to the cost of the ATP certification requirement.

5. Annualized PV Cost/Benefit is the annual cash flow of the 20

- year annuity that yields the same present value as the cost/benefit item.

6. For the ATP 1,500 hour requirement, total cost is lower under 3% discounting compared to 7% discounting since total cost per pilot over the 20

- year estimation period is calculated on the basis of annualizing the pilot’s assumed 35

- year career total earnings.

7. Column sums may be off one or more units from totals owing to rounding

.

### 48 

## APPENDIX 3

Estimated Market Value of Air Carrier Aircraft , 2008

PAX Airplanes Cargo Airplanes

Airplane Category No. of

APs Wt Ave

2008 Mkt

Value

($ mil.) No.

of

APs Wt Ave

2008 Mkt

Value

($ mil .)

Two

- Engine Narrow Body 3,283 $ 17.28 156 $ 11.11

Two

- Engine Wide Body 476 $ 43.62 272 $ 21.47

Three

- Engine Narrow Body 6 $ 0.54 140 $ 0.94

Three

- Engine Wide Body 18 $ 11.05 208 $ 24.01

Four

- Engine Narrow Body 0 NA 67 $ 2.66

Four

- Engine Wide Body 50 $ 44.19 102 $ 29.35

Regional Jet under 70 Seats 1,337 $ 8.67 NA NA

Regiona l Jet 70 to 100 Seats 522 $ 19.56 NA NA

Turboprop under 20 seats (Pt 23) 48 $ 0.88 NA NA

Turboprop under 20 seats (Pt 25) 177 $ 1.35 NA NA

Turboprop with 20 Seats or More 384 $ 4.52 NA NA

Pi ston Engine (Pt 23) NA NA NA NA

All Airplanes 5,917 $ 16.46 945 $ 16.79

Sources: 1. Table is an APO update to 2008 of 2003 data in Economic Values for FAA Investment and Regulatory

Decisions, a Guide , pp. 5

- 1

-- 5.6. Office o f Aviation Policy and Plans, U.S. Federa l Aviation Administration,

Washington , DC, Final Report, Revis ed October 3, 2007. Online at www .faa.gov, Regulation & Policies, Policy &

Guidance, Benefit

- Cost Analysis, Economics Values for FAA Investment and Regula tory Decisions, Final Report,

Revised October 3, 2007.

2. Aircraft Numbers: Fleet database, OAG Aviation Solution, 3025 Highland Pkway, Suite 200, Downers Grove, Il

60515.

3. Aircraft Market Values: Airliner Price Guide , vol. 72, July, 2008. Herndon, Va.

Notes: 1. Restoration costs are estimated as 13% of airplane values for passenger airplanes and 15% for cargo

airplanes (Economic Values, p. 5

- 5).

2. Estimated market values for jets used in Part 135 operations are from Economics Values, Table 5

- 7, p. 5

- 9,

updated from 2003 to June, 2010 by the CPI

- U price relative for June, 2010 compared to June, 2001 (218.0/183.7 =

1.1867).

3. Restoration costs for jets used in Part 135 operations are estimated as 16% for Part 25 jets weighing < 65,000 lbs

and 2% for Part 25 jets weighing > 65,000 lbs

. (Economic Values, Table 5

- 10, p. 5

- 12).

### 49 

## APPENDIX 4

Pilot Certification and Qualification Rule

- R elated Accidents, FY 2001

- 2010 ( Part 121 Operations )

Date Carrier

Airplane Category Airplane

Value

($ mil.) Operations Type Fa tal

ities Serious

Injuries Minor

Injuries Full Cost of

Fatality/

Injury AP

Dmge

Code Full

Amt

of AP

Dmge Full

Accident

Cost Rule

Effect

iveness Effective

Accident

Cost

04/28/04 Centurion Air Cargo 3

- Engine Wide Body $ 24.01 Part 121 Cargo 0 0 0 $

- 1 $24.01 $ 24.01 0.15 $ 3.60

08/13/04 Air Tahoma Turboprop <20 Seats (pt 25) $ 1.35 Part 121 Cargo 1 1 0 $ 6.74 1 $ 1.35 $ 8.09 0.75 $ 6.07

08/30/04 Custom Air Transport 3

- Engine Narrow Body $ 0.94 Pa rt 121 Cargo 0 0 0 $

- 0.15 $ 0.14 $ 0.14 0.35 $ 0.05

09/19/04 FedEx 3

- Engine Wide Body $ 24.01 Part 121 Cargo 0 0 0 $

- 0.15 $ 3.60 $ 3.60 0.15 $ 0.54

06/07/05 UPS 3

- Engine Wide Body $ 24.01 Part 121 Car go 0 0 0 $

- 0.15 $ 3.60 $ 3.60 0.15 $ 0.54

05/16/08 Asia Pacific Airlines 3

- Engine Narrow Body $ 0.94 Part 121 Cargo 0 0 0 $

- 0.15 $ 0.14 $ 0.14 0.35 $ 0.05

07/06/08 USA Jet 2

- Engine Narrow Body $ 11.1 1 Part 121 Cargo 1 1 0 $ 6.74 1 $11.11 $ 17.85 0.55 $ 9.82

01/27/09 Empire Turboprop <20 Seats (pt 25) $ 1.35 Part 121 Cargo 0 1 1 $ 0.59 1 $ 1.35 $ 1.94 0.15 $ 0.29

10/22/00 Frontier Flying Ser Turboprop 20+ Seats $ 4.52 Part 121 Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.13 $ 0.59 $ 0.59 0.35 $ 0.21

11/20/00 Atl So East Turboprop 20+ Seats $ 4.52 Part 121 Pax 0 1 0 $ 0.58 0 $

- $ 0.58 0.55 $ 0.32

02/10/01 Great Lakes (as United Express) Tu rboprop 20+ Seats $ 4.52 Part 121 Pax 0 0 7 $ 0.11 0.13 $ 0.59 $ 0.69 0.55 $ 0.38

10/16/01 Mesa (US Airways Express) Regional Jet < 70 Seats $ 8.67 Part 121 Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.13 $ 1.13 $ 1.13 0.75 $ 0.85

04/1 8/02 ATA 2

- Engine Narrow Body $ 17.28 Part 121 Pax 0 2 10 $ 1.31 0 $

- $ 1.31 0.15 $ 0.20

06/16/02 Vanguard 2

- Engine Narrow Body $ 17.28 Part 121 Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.13 $ 2.25 $ 2.25 0.15 $ 0.34

01/06/03 Exp ressJet (Continental Express) Regional Jet < 70 Seats $ 8.67 Part 121 Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.13 $ 1.13 $ 1.13 0.55 $ 0.62

05/24/03 Southwest 2

- Engine Narrow Body $ 17.28 Part 121 Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.13 $ 2.25 $ 2.25 0.15 $ 0.34

11/14/03 United 4

- Engine Wide Body $ 44.19 Part 121 Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.13 $ 5.74 $ 5.74 0.15 $ 0.86

05/09/04 American Eagle Turboprop 20+ Seats $ 4.52 Part 121 Pax 0 0 13 $ 0.20 0.13 $ 0.59 $ 0.78 0 .35 $ 0.27

10/19/04 Corp. Airlines (American Connection) Turboprop 20+ Seats $ 4.52 Part 121 Pax 13 2 0 $ 81.27 1 $ 4.52 $ 85.79 0.35 $30.03

04/29/05 Southwest 2

- Engine Narrow Body $ 17.28 Part 121 Pax 0 1 0 $ 0.58 0 $

- $ 0.58 0.15 $ 0.09

05/31/05 Air Wisconsin (as United Express) Regional Jet < 70 Seats $ 8.67 Part 121 Pax 0 1 0 $ 0.58 0 $

- $ 0.58 0.15 $ 0.09

09/18/05 Spirit 2

- Engine Narrow Body $ 17.28 Part 121 Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.13 $ 2.25 $ 2.25 0.15 $ 0.34

07/24/06 American Eagle Regional Jet < 70 Seats $ 8.67 Part 121 Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.13 $ 1.13 $ 1.13 0.15 $ 0.17

04/12/07 Pinnacle as NoWest Airline Regional Jet < 70 Seats $ 8.67 Part 121 Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.13 $ 1.13 $ 1.13 0.15 $ 0.17

06/20/07 Great Lakes Turboprop 20+ Seats $ 4.52 Part 121 Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.13 $ 0.59 $ 0.59 0.75 $ 0.44

12/16/07 Air Wisconsin Regional Jet < 70 Seats $ 8.67 Part 121 Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.13 $ 1.13 $ 1.13 0.15 $ 0.17

08/14/08 Trans States as American Connection Regional Jet < 70 Seats $ 8.67 Part 121 Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.13 $ 1.13 $ 1.13 0.55 $ 0.62

02/ 12/09 Colgan Air Turboprop 20+ Seats $ 4.52 Part 121 Pax 50 0 0 $308.13 1 $ 4.52 $312.65 0.35 109.43

05/06/09 World Airways 3

- Engine Wide Body $ 11.05 Part 121 Pax 0 1 3 $ 0.62 0.13 $ 1.44 $ 2.06 0.15 $ 0.31

08/27/09 Airt ran 2

- Engine Narrow Body $ 17.28 Part 121 Pax 0 1 0 $ 0.58 0 $

- $ 0.58 0.15 $ 0.09

06/28/10 American Eagle Regional Jet < 70 Seats $ 8.67 Part 121 Pax 0 2 3 $ 1.20 0 $

- $ 1.20 0.15 $ 0.18

### 50 

## APPENDIX 4 (cont. )

Pilot Certification and Qualification Rule

- Related Accidents, FY 2001

- 2010 (Part 135 Operations)

Date Carrier Airplane Category Airplane

Value ($

mil.) Operations Type Fatal

ities Serious

Injuries Minor

Injuries Full Cost of

Fatality/ Injur y AP

Dmge

Code Full

Amt

of AP

Dmge Full

Accident

Cost Rule

Effect

iveness Effective

Accident

Cost

08/28/01 Grand Aire Express Part 25 Jet 65,000 lbs+ $ 26.52 On

- Demand Cargo 0 0 0 $

- 0.02 $ 0.53 $ 0.53 0.15 $ 0.08

04/08/ 03 Grand Aire Express Part 25 Jet 65,000 lbs+ $ 26.52 On

- Demand Cargo 0 2 0 $ 1.16 1 $26.52 $ 27.68 0.15 $ 4.15

01/09/07 Ameristar Jet Charter Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Cargo 2 0 0 $ 12.33 1 $ 8.51 $ 20.83 0 .35 $ 7.29

01/10/07 Airnet Systems Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Cargo 0 0 0 $

- 0.16 $ 1.36 $ 1.36 0.55 $ 0.75

02/24/09 Bankair Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Cargo 0 0 0 $

- 0.16 $ 1.36 $ 1.36 0.15 $ 0.20

10/26/01 American Jets International Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Med 0 0 0 $

- 0.16 $ 1.36 $ 1.36 0.35 $ 0.48

08/30/02 Care Flight International Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.5 1 On

- Demand Med 1 4 0 $ 8.47 1 $ 8.51 $ 16.98 0.35 $ 5.94

07/02/04 Air Trek Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Med 6 0 0 $ 36.98 1 $ 8.51 $ 45.49 0.35 $15.92

03/17/07 Air Trek Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Med 0 0 0 $

- 0.16 $ 1.36 $ 1.36 0.15 $ 0.20

12/20/00 Million Air Dallas Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.16 $ 1.36 $ 1.36 0.35 $ 0.48

03/29/01 Avjet Part 25 Jet 65,000 lbs+ $ 26.52 On

- Demand Pax 18 0 0 $110.93 1 $26.52 $137.45 0.35 $48.11

03/25/02 Corporate Flight Management Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.16 $ 1.36 $ 1.36 0.35 $ 0.48

08/13/02 Corporate Flight International Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Pax 0 0 0 $

- 1 $ 8.51 $ 8.51 0.15 $ 1.28

11/11/03 West Coast Charters Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.16 $ 1.36 $ 1.36 0 .35 $ 0.48

02/20/04 Aztec Capital Corporation Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Pax 0 1 1 $ 0.59 0.16 $ 1.36 $ 1.95 0.15 $ 0.29

03/19/04 AirNet Systems Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.16 $ 1.36 $ 1.36 0.35 $ 0.48

11/28/04 Air Castle Corporation Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Pax 3 3 0 $ 20.22 1 $ 8.51 $ 28.73 0.35 $10.06

07/15/05 Aspen Base Operations Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- D emand Pax 0 1 3 $ 0.62 0.16 $ 1.36 $ 1.98 0.15 $ 0.30

01/05/06 Netjets as Executive Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.16 $ 1.36 $ 1.36 0.15 $ 0.20

06/02/06 International Jet Charter Part 2 5 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Pax 2 0 3 $ 12.37 1 $ 8.51 $ 20.88 0.35 $ 7.31

08/23/07 Jet Share US Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Pax 0 0 0 $

- 0.16 $ 1.36 $ 1.36 0.15 $ 0.20

07/31/08 East Coas t Jets Part 25 Jet < 65,000 lbs $ 8.51 On

- Demand Pax 8 0 0 $ 49.30 1 $ 8.51 $ 57.81 0.15 $ 8.67

03/13/02 Warbelows Air Ventures TP<20 (pt 23) $ 0.88 Commuter 0 0 0 $

- 0.15 $ 0.13 $ 0.13 0.15 $ 0.02

08/24/02 Ca pe Smythe Air Service TP<20 (pt 23) $ 0.88 Commuter 0 0 0 $

- 0.15 $ 0.13 $ 0.13 0.15 $ 0.02

07/13/03 Air Sunshine TP<20 (pt 23) $ 0.88 Commuter 2 0 0 $ 12.33 0.15 $ 0.13 $ 12.46 0.35 $ 4.36

04/04/04 Peninsula Airways TP<20 (pt 23) $ 0.88 Commuter 0 0 0 $

- 0.15 $ 0.13 $ 0.13 0.75 $ 0.10

09/17/04 Everts Air Alaska TP<20 (pt 23) $ 0.88 Commuter 0 0 0 $

- 0.15 $ 0.13 $ 0.13 0.15 $ 0.02

02/19/09 Frontier Flyin g Service TP<20 (pt 23) $ 0.88 Commuter 0 1 0 $ 0.58 0.15 $ 0.13 $ 0.71 0.15 $ 0.11

02/01/10 Cape Air TP<20 (pt 23) $ 0.88 Commuter 0 0 0 $

- 0.15 $ 0.13 $ 0.13 0.35 $ 0.05

03/15/10 Servant Air TP<20 (pt 23 ) $ 0.88 Commuter 0 2 0 $ 1.16 1 $ 0.88 $ 2.04 0.15 $ 0.31

### 51 

## Appendix 5

— Effectiveness Ratings by Airline Safety Act Rule for Seven

Highlighted FOQ Accidents

Effectiven e ss Rating

Date Carrier Location Ops

Type Aircraft Typ e FOQ N&O PR&D SMS



### FOQ High Effectiveness Rating Accidents

10/16/01 Mesa Roanoke, VA Part 121 ERJ

- 145 0.75 0.75

08/13/04 Air Tahoma Florence, KY Part 121 CV

- 580 0.75 0.20

06/20/07 Great Lakes Laramie, WY Part 121 BE

- 1900D 0.75 0.55 0.15 0.20

07/06/08 USA Jet Saltillo, Mex Part 121 DC

- 9

- 15F 0.55

FOQ High Effective Cost Rules

03/29/01 Avjet Aspen, CO Part 135 Gulfstream III 0.35

10/19/04 Corporate Airlines Kirksville, MO Part 121 BAE

- 32 0.35 0.35 0.75 0.10

02/12/09 Col gan Air Buffalo, NY Part 121 DHC

- 8

- 400 0.35 0.75 0.50 0.10

Table Note : The NTSB and other accident investigation authorities aim to identify all potential hazards

that contribute to an accident in an effort to establish probable c ause and contributing f actors.

Accidents rarely result from a single failure or action ; rather they usually result from a chain of

events. By eliminating, mitigating, or managing the hazards identified in the chain, future accidents

may be avoided. Each hazard identified in an accident is usually independent of other hazards

id entified in the same accident. For this reason, aviation safety standards organizations around the

world take steps to address each hazard , often in separate rulemakings. Consequently, for an

accident with hazards addressed by multiple rules, it is possible for effectiveness ratings to sum to

greater than 100 percent

.

Sources:

FOQ (First Officer Qualifications): Pilot Certification and Qualification Requirements for Air Carrier

Operations (Draft proposed rule).

N&O: Qualification, Service, and Use of Crewmember and Aircraft Dispatchers (SNPRM), 76 FR

29336 (May 20, 2011).

PR&D (Pilot Rest & Duty): Flightcrew Member Duty and Rest Requirements ( Final Rule ), 77 FR 55852

( Jan. 4, 2012 )

. SMS (Safety Management Systems): Safety Management Systems for Part 121 Certificate Holders

(NPRM), 75 FR 68224 (Nov. 5, 2010)

.