Prelim. Proj.

Year: (production/marketing) 1 / 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Low Med. High Low Med. High

Oil Yield, lbs./ bu. of soybeans 2 / 11.3 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.3 11.4 11.5

Mil. Har vested Acres of U.S. Soybeans 74.6 64.1 74.7 76.4 76.6 75.2 75.6 75.7 76.7 77.1 77.2

U.S. Soybean Production, mil. bu. 3,188 2,676 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,083 3,289 3,444 3,145 3,385 3,520

U.S. Soybean Yield, per acre 42.7 41.7 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.0 43.5 45.5 41.0 43.9 45.6

U.S. Domestic Soybean Crush 1,808 1,803 1,662 1,752 1,660 1,580 1,660 1,680 1,580 1,660 1,680

SB Oil Supplies (Mil. Lbs.):

Production 20,489 20,580 18,745 19,615 18,924 17,854 18,924 19,320 17,854 18,924 19,320

Beginning carryover 3,010 3,085 2,485 2,861 3,359 2,498 2,498 2,498 1,702 1,702 1,702

Imports 37 65 90 103 115 140 90 75 140 90 75

Total Supply 23,536 23,730 21,320 22,579 22,398 20,492 21,512 21,893 19,696 20,716 21,097

Usage (Mil. Lbs.):

Margarine 3 / 961 902 770 760 760 710 770 785 690 715 725

Salad & cooking oils 8,708 9,612 10,321 9,339 9,260 9,130 9,230 9,265 8,700 9,100 9,200

Baking, frying fats & oils 3 / 6,225 5,271 4,445 3,883 4,120 3,900 3,950 4,075 3,800 3,820 3,850

Other food & industrial 3/ (81) (694) (1,292) (35) 0 (20) 10 10 (20) 10 10

Total food & non-biodiesel industrial 15,813 15,091 14,244 14,182 14,200 13,720 13,960 14,135 13,170 13,645 13,785

Soy oil biodiesel (methyl ester) 2,762 3,245 2,021 1,681 2,900 3,500 3,550 3,600 4,100 4,200 4,300

Non-soy biodiesel 4/ 425 503 2,166 1,666 3,425 3,500 3,525 3,550 3,500 3,525 3,550

Total domestic soy oil use 18,575 18,335 16265 15,863 17,100 17,220 17,510 17,735 17,270 17,845 18,085

Exports 1,877 2,911 2,193 3,357 2,800 1,900 2,300 2,350 1,900 2,300 2,350

Total Usage 20,451 21,246 18,458 19,220 19,900 19,120 19,810 20,085 19,170 20,145 20,435

Soybean oil use, % of biodiesel mandates 19.5% 43.0% 58.3% 47.3% 48.0% 54.7% 56.0% 57.3%

Biodiesel Usage:

Use for biodiesel, bushel equivalent 244 281 179 150 254 310 311 313 363 368 374

Mil. acres used for biodiesel 5.72 6.74 4.51 3.41 5.85 7.55 7.16 6.88 8.85 8.39 8.20

% of U.S. soybean acres used for biodiesel 7.7% 10.5% 6.0% 4.5% 7.6% 10.0% 9.5% 9.1% 11.5% 10.9% 10.6%

Soybean oil for biodiesel:

% of oil from crop 7.7% 10.5% 6.0% 4.5% 7.6% 10.0% 9.5% 9.1% 11.5% 10.9% 10.6%

% of oil from crush 13.5% 15.8% 10.8% 8.6% 15.3% 19.6% 18.8% 18.6% 23.0% 22.2% 22.3%

% of domestic food & non-biodiesel use 17.5% 21.5% 14.2% 11.9% 20.4% 25.5% 25.4% 25.5% 31.1% 30.8% 31.2%

% of soy oil exports 147.2% 111.5% 92.2% 50.1% 103.6% 184.2% 154.3% 153.2% 215.8% 182.6% 183.0%

Soy + non-soy oil for biodiesel, % of mandates 88% 58% 90% 100% 101% 102% 108% 110% 112%

Ending Carryover: (mil. lbs.) 3,085 2,485 2,861 3,359 2,498 1,372 1,702 1,808 526 571 662

Carryover as percent of supply 13.1% 10.5% 13.4% 14.9% 11.2% 6.7% 7.9% 8.3% 2.7% 2.8% 3.1%

Carryover as percent of use 15.1% 11.7% 15.5% 17.5% 12.6% 7.2% 8.6% 9.0% 2.7% 2.8% 3.2%

Weeks of use in carryover stocks 7.8 6.1 8.1 9.1 6.5 3.7 4.5 4.7 1.4 1.5 1.7

Prices:

Soy oil, $ per cwt., marketing year avg. $31.00 $52.03 $32.16 $35.95 $52.00 $58.00 $54.00 $50.00 $56.00 $53.00 $50.00



### Notes:

1 / Marketing year starts at October 1 of the production year and ends September 30 of the following year, one month later than th e soybean marketing year.

2/ Oil yield for medium-yield soybean crop in 2010-11 is near the 2001-06 average, with a slight increase for assumed good crop g rowing conditions. Actual oil yield varies with weather.

3/ Estimated, since published data are not available after 2007-08. Other industrial includes possible statistical errors.



### Key Balance Sheet Assumptions:

1. No changes in Conservation Reserve Program.

2. Crude oil (petroleum) price stays in $75-$90/barrel range for the rest of 2009-10, then gradually increases in the next two years.

3. U.S. Ethanol & biodiesel mandates, blending credit, and import tariff are unchanged & enforced. Biodiesel blender's credit i s reinstated within the next two months. E-15 blends are

allowed staring in late 2010, but for 2001 and newer vehicles only.

4. U.S. & World economies have slow growth through 2010, then accelerate slightly in 2011 & 2012.

5. U.S. dollar gradually decreases relative to foreign currencies through 2012.

Data Sources :

USDA, Economic Research Service, Oil Crops Yearbook: Data Se t that is available at

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1290

U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Manufacturing: http:// www.census.gov/m anufacturing/cir/historical_data/m311k/index.html

and the World Agriculture Supply Demand Report s that are available at

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194

Projections are by Wisner

. . . and justice for all Projected 2012-2013 

### Updated: 2/18/2011

Historic 

# Soybean Oil and Biodiesel Usage Projections & Balance Sheet

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, col or, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (N ot all

prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Many materials can be made available in alternative formats for ADA clients. To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence

Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call 202-720-5964.

Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, Acts of May 8 and June 30, 1914, in cooperation with the U.S. Department o f Agriculture. Gerald A. Miller, interim director, C ooperative Extension Service, Iowa State University of Science

and Technology, Ames, Iowa. 4/ Non-soy biodiesel is estimated from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration monthly data for 2006-07 thro ugh 2008-09. Data for later years are

tentative projections by Robert Wisner. The DOE monthly data are available at http://www.eia. doe.gov/mer/pdf/pages/sec10_8.pdf. 

### By Dr. Robert Wisner, biofuels economist, 1-515-294-4275, rwwisner@iastate.edu Projected 2011-2012

Not Applicable

12-5,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-2012 2012-2013Historic Prelim. Projected

Bushels (mil.)Soybean Oil Production, Usage, and CarryoverProductionTotal UsageEnding Carryover3-5,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Low Med. High Low Med. HighHistoric Prelim. Proj. Projected 2011-2012 Projected 2012-2013

Bushels (mil.)Yearly Production and Beginning Carryover forSoybean OilImportsBeginning carryoverU.S. Domestic Soybean Crush405,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Low Med. High Low Med. HighHistoric Prelim. Proj. Projected 2011-2012 Projected 2012-2013

Bushels (mil.)Usage of Soybean Oil and BiodieselExportsTotal food & non-biodiesel industrialSoy oil biodiesel (methyl ester)5$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00$40.00$50.00$60.00$70.00-5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Low Med. High Low Med. HighHistoric Prelim. Proj. Projected 2011-2012 Projected 2012-2013 Price

Mil. PoundsEnding Soybean Oil Carryover and PriceEnding Carryover: (mil. lbs.)Soy oil, $ per cwt., marketing year avg.60.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Low Med. High Low Med. HighHistoric Prelim. Proj. Projected 2011-2012 Projected 2012-2013Soybean Oil for Biodiesel, Percent of Crush702004006008001,0001,2001,40001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002006 actual 2008 actual 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020Mil. Bu. SB. Equivalent

Mil. Lbs.Marketing YearsMil. Lbs. Soybean Oil Requirements for Biodiesel in theDecember 2007 U.S. Energy Bill with 50% of BiodieselFeedstock from Soy OilMil. Lbs. SBO EquivalentMil. Bu. EquivalentMandates begin in 2010. The 2006-07, 2007-08 & 2008-09 barsare actual production. 2009-10 increases sharply because 2009and 2010 mandates were combined