FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034



## Table of Contents

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS

............................................................................................................................... ..................... 1

REVIEW OF 2013

............................................................................................................................... ............................... 3

U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

............................................................................................................................... ......................... 5

WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

............................................................................................................................... ................... 8

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

............................................................................................................................... ........................... 9

World Travel Demand

............................................................................................................................... ........................... 9

U.S. Travel Demand.........................................................................................................................

................................... 14

Commercial Air Carriers

– Passenger

............................................................................................................................... .................. 15

Domestic Passenger Markets

............................................................................................................................... ............................. 18

International Passenger Markets........................................................................................................................

............................... 21

Commercial Air Carriers

– Cargo..........................................................................................................................

.............................. 23

International Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles by Region

...................................................................................................................... 24

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2013 Financial Results

......................................................................................................... 24

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2013 Aircraft Fleets

.............................................................................................................. 26

GENERAL AVIATION

............................................................................................................................... ................................ 28

FAA OPERATIONS

............................................................................................................................... .................................... 30

FAA AEROSPACE FORECASTS

............................................................................................................................... ........... 34

ECONOMIC FORECASTS

............................................................................................................................... .......................... 35

World Economy

............................................................................................................................... ................................... 40

AVIATION TRAFFIC AND ACTIVITY FORECASTS

....................................................................................................................... 42

Commercial Aviation Forecasts

............................................................................................................................... ........... 42

Domestic Markets

............................................................................................................................... .............................................. 44

International Markets

............................................................................................................................... ......................................... 48

Commercial Aircraft Fleet

............................................................................................................................... ................... 54

General Aviation

............................................................................................................................... ................................. 55

FAA Operations Forecasts

............................................................................................................................... ................... 60

FAA and Contract Towers

............................................................................................................................... ................................... 60

En

‐ route Centers

............................................................................................................................... ................................................ 61

UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS

............................................................................................................................... .... 63

COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION

........................................................................................................................ 66

O VERVIEW

............................................................................................................................... ................................................. 66

R EVIEW OF 2013

............................................................................................................................... ........................................ 67

G LOBAL O RBITAL L AUNCH F ORECAST

............................................................................................................................... ............... 68

S UBORBITAL R EUSABLE V EHICLES F ORECAST

............................................................................................................................... ..... 69

RISKS TO THE FORECASTS

............................................................................................................................... ............... 71

APPENDIX A: ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIOS

........................................................................................................ 74

S CENARIO A SSUMPTIONS

............................................................................................................................... .............................. 74

A LTERNATIVE F ORECASTS

............................................................................................................................... .............................. 79

Passengers

............................................................................................................................... .......................................... 79

Revenue Passenger Miles

............................................................................................................................... .................... 80

Available Seat Miles

............................................................................................................................... ............................ 80

Load Factor

............................................................................................................................... ......................................... 81

Yield

............................................................................................................................... .................................................... 82FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

APPENDIX B: FAA FORECAST ACCURACY

........................................................................................................................ 87

APPENDIX C: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

............................................................................................................................. 89

APPENDIX D: FORECAST TABLES

............................................................................................................................... ..... 91FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

1 

# FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS

2014-2034

Since the beginning of the cent ury, the commercial air carrier industry has suffered several major shocks that have led to reduced demand for ai r travel. These shocks include the terror attacks of September 11, skyrocketing prices fo r fuel, debt restructuring in Europe and the United States (U.S.), and a global recession. To manage this period of extreme volatility, air

carriers have fine-tuned their business models wit h the aim of minimizing financial losses by lowering operating costs, eliminating unprofitable routes and grounding older, less fuel efficient aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers have initiated new services that customers are willing to purchase. Carrier s have also started charging separ ately for services that were historically bundled in t he price of a ticket. The capacity discipline exhibited by carriers and

their focus on additional revenue st reams bolstered the industry to profitability in 2013 for the fourth consecutive year. Going into the next decade, there is cauti ous optimism that the industry has been transformed from that of a boo m-to-bust cycle to one of sustainable profits.

As the economy recovers from the most seri ous economic downturn and slow recovery in recent history, aviation will continue to grow over the long run. Fundamentally, demand for aviation is driven by economic activity. As econom ic growth picks up, so will growth in aviation

demand. The 2014 FAA forecast calls for U.S. ca rrier passenger growth ov er the next 20 years to average 2.2 percent per year, unc hanged from last year’s forecas t. After another year of slow growth in 2014, growth over t he next five years wi ll be higher than the lo ng run rate as we assume U.S. economic growth accelerates. O ne of the many factors influencing the muted recovery is the uncertainty that surrounds the U.S. and the global economy. The global economy has been hit by a number of headwinds duri ng the past few years, from recession in Europe to a “soft landing” in China and inconsist ent performance in other emerging economies. This has not helped the pace of U.S. economic gr owth given the increasing importance of its trade with Europe and the rest of the world. Despite this and the ambiguity surrounding its own fiscal imbalances, the U.S. economy has managed to avoid a double dip recession and trudges along the path of slow recovery.

System capacity in available seat miles (ASMs) – the overall yardstick for how busy aviation is both domestically and internationally – is project ed to increase by 1.5 percent this year after posting a 0.8 percent increase in 2013; it will then grow at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent through 2034. In the domestic market, capacity growth in 2014 is forecast to be 1.0 percent and then grow at an aver age annual rate of 2.1 percent for the remainder of the forecast period. Domestic mainline carrier capacit y is projected to increas e 0.8 percent in 2014 after rising 1.3 percent in 2013. For the regional carriers, domestic capacity growth is projected to be 2.2 percent in 2014 after declining 2.8 per cent in 2013. Commercia l air carrier domestic revenue passenger miles (RPMs) are forecast to increase 0.9 percent in 2014, and then grow at an average of 2.2 percent per year through 2034; domesti c enplanements in 2014 will increase 0.6 percent, and then grow at an average ann ual rate of 1.9 percent for the remainder of the forecast period.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

2 

### The average size of domestic aircraft is expect ed to increase by 1.3 seats in FY 2014 to 126.3 seats. Average seats per aircraft for mainline carri ers are projected to increase by 1.2 seats as

network carriers 1 

### continue to reconfigure their domesti c fleets. While demand for 70-90 seat aircraft continues to increase, we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets in service to fall, increasing the averag e regional aircraft size in 2014 by 1.4 seats to 57.5 seats per mile. Passenger trip length in all domes tic markets will increase by 2.6 miles during the same period.

The long term outlook for general av iation is favorable even though the slow growth of the U.S. economy, contributed by uncertainties caused by debt ceiling crises, seques tration, government shutdown, and the European recessi on have affected the near term gr owth, particularly for the turbo jet sector. While it is slightly lower than predicted last year, the growth in business aviation demand over the long term continues, driven by a gr owing U.S. and world economy especially in the turbo jet, tur boprop, and turbine rotorcraft market s. As the fleet grows, the number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increas e an average of 1.4 percent a year through 2034.

After sputtering in the early part of 2013, both the U.S. and global economies began to show improvement in the latter half of 2013 and appear poised to grow faster in 2014. Assuming energy prices remain relatively stable, U.S. carrier profitability should increase as an improving economy in its fifth year of recovery leads to strengthening demand, which coupled with continuing capacity discipline re sults in higher fares (and incr eased ancillary revenues). Over the long term, we see a com petitive and profitable aviation industry characterized by increasing demand for air trav el and airfares growing more slowly than inflation, reflecting over the long term a growing U.S. economy.

1 Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Airlines, and U.S. Airways.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

3 

# REVIEW OF 2013

The year 2013 began with a good deal of uncertainty which never really let up. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the impact s of the expiration of the pay roll tax cut, sequestration, and ultimately a government shutdown, 2013 saw the U.S. airline indust ry post solid results. The changes that U.S. carriers have m ade since the start of the global recession in 2008 helped the industry to make a profit for the fourth year in a row. Many industry professionals see these changes as providing traction towards profitability, even during future periods of uncertainty. The biggest change that U.S. passenger airlines have made is the sh ift in focus from increasing market share to one of boosting shareholder return on investment. The U. S. airline industry has become more nimble; that is, adjusting capacit y to seize opportunities or contracting in times of economic distress. Even during times of economic instability and distress, the industry has found ways to increase revenue. For example, air carriers are charging fees for services that used to be included in airfare (e.g. meal serv ice), as well as for services that were not previously available (e.g. premium boarding and fare lock fees). The impa ct from these recent initiatives gives reason for optimism as the industry (passenger and cargo carriers combined) posted profits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013.

Demand for air travel in 2013 grew slowly for the second year in a row amid an uncertain

economic environment in the U.S. In 2013 2 

### system revenue passenger miles increased 1.4 percent as enplanements in creased 0.4 percent. Commerc ial air carrier domestic enplanements were flat (up by 0.1 percent), while international enplanements were up 2.6 percent. The system-wide load fa ctor rose to 83.2 percent (up 0.5 points from 2012). Domestic enplanement market share continued to rise for low-cost, network, and “other” carriers in 2013 while regional carrier share decreased. Domestic low cost carrier enplanement share increased by 0.1 points to 29.2 percent, while the share of network and “other” carriers rose by 0.5 points to 47.0 percent. Regional carrier share dropped by 0.5 points to 23.8 percent.

Capacity restraint by the carriers along with stabl e fuel prices helped b oost industry profits in FY 2013 despite system wide real yield decreasing by 1.0 perc ent. Data for FY 2013 show that the reporting passenger carriers had a combined operating profit of $9.6 billion (compared to a $6.0 billion operating pr ofit for FY 2012). The netwo rk carriers reported combined operating profits of $7.1 billion while the low co st carriers reported co mbined operating profits of $1.8 billion, with all ca rriers posting profits.

The general aviation market continued to improv e in every segment, except for the business jets. Increase in aircraft deliveries was especially robust for the agricultura l airplane portion of turboprops, for rotorcraft, and multi-engine piston ai rcraft. Overall deliveries were up by 6.4 percent in calendar year (CY) 2013; with a 38.1 percent increas e in U.S. billings. Single engine piston shipments were up by 4.5 compared to the previous year. Combined with a 27.0

2 All stated years and quarters for U.S. economic and U. S. air carrier traffic and financial data and forecasts are on a fiscal year (FY) basis (October 1 through September 30). All stated years and quarters for international

economic and world traffic and financial data are on a calendar year (CY) basis, unless otherwise stated.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

4 

### percent increase in the smaller multi-engine category, total pist on aircraft shipments by U.S. manufacturers were up by 6.5 percent. Turbi ne aircraft shipments (turboprop and business jets) by U.S. manufacturers increased by 6.3 perc ent in CY 2013. Turboprop shipments, which increased by 13.8 percent in 2013 accounted for the growth in turbine shipments, as the decline of business jet shipments continued at a smaller rate of 3.7 percent, compared to 4.7 percent of CY 2012. This was a reflection of the fragile natur e of the economic recovery. General aviation activity at F AA and contract tower airports re corded a 1.2 perce nt decline in 2013, which was caused by a decrease in itinerant activity; local operations were slightly up (0.7 percent) compared to previous year.

Total operations at FAA and contract towers fell agai n in 2013 by 1.3 percent, as activity declined in all user categories. Activity at large hubs fall by 0.9 percent, while m edium hubs and small/non hub airports saw declines of 2.9 percent and 1.1 percent, respecti vely. With increasing numbers of regional and business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix chang es, and carriers consolidating operations in their large hubs, we expect increased acti vity growth which ha s the potential to

increase controller workload.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

5 

# U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

U.S. economic performance in 2013 continued to be mixed with modest growth in real GDP and real incomes, a slowly falling unemployment rate, and oil prices and consumer inflation remaining in check. The economy grew at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent in fiscal year (FY) 2013 after expanding 2.8 percent in FY 2012. Given the uncertainty that characterized 2013, it was not surprising that growth in 2013 was lower than the previo us year. GDP growth accelerated throughout the y ear with the negative effects of Hurricane Sandy and the expiration of the tempor ary payroll tax cut impacting the first and second quarters. Despite the slow growth there were some favorable signs in the data as the housin g market continued to improve, the stock market entered record terri tory, and the labor mark et saw steady but slow improvement.

4.9

3.7

1.2 2.8

0.1 1.1 2.5 4.1

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3Percent Change 

## U.S. Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted Annual Growth

Fiscal Year 2013 Fiscal Year 2012FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

6 

### One of the unique features about the economic recovery (now in its 5 th 

### year) has been the slow improvement in the nation’s unemployment rate. Since 1960 there have been five economic expansions in the U.S. that have lasted longer than 48 months, including this latest expansion. On average, for the prior four expansions, the unempl oyment rate four years after the peak rate in the recession prior to the ex pansion, has declined by about one-third. If the current recovery had been similar to the prior four recoveries, the unemployment rate would be 0.6 to 0.7 points lower than the 7.5 percent in the fourth quar ter of FY 2013, and 7.6 percent for all of FY 2013. The persist ently high unemployment rate is thought to be a contributing factor to the slow recovery in consum er spending and aviation demand that has been experienced since 2009.

9.5 9.5 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.7 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q3 2013 Q1 2013 Q3Percent Unemployed

Date 

## U.S. Unemployment RateFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

7 

### The price of oil, as measured by the U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Co st (for West Texas Intermediate, or WTI), remained relatively st able in FY 2013, averaging $100.79 per barrel, down 2.0 percent from the FY 2012 figure of $102. 81. Although the refiner acquisition cost of oil has risen by 84 percent since 2009, the volatility that characterized 2008-2011 has diminished considerably in the last two years.

Finally, consumer prices increase d at a modest rate in 2013. Co re inflation (excluding gas and food) was moderate (1.8 percent); while headline inflati on (including gas and food) was up 1.6 percent as food prices incr eased just 1.5 percent. 59.9 60.6 101.5

54.7 74.6 96.0 102.8 100.8

$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013$PerBarrelof(WTI)Oil

FY 

# U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Source: IHS EconomicsFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

8 

# WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Based on preliminary figures, according to IHS Gl obal Insight, the U.S. and rest of the world economies grew 1.6 and 2.3 percent, respective ly, in 2013. The advanced economies (U.S., Western Europe, Japan, Australi a, New Zealand, and C anada) expanded 1.2 percent overall. All world regions saw their economies grow, except for Europe, which is st ill wrestling with the recession that began in second quarte r of 2012. The fastest grow th was in China followed by

Indonesia and India.

On a calendar year basis, gros s domestic product (GDP) in C anada expanded at a slightly faster pace (up 1.7 percent) t han the U.S. in 2013. The comb ined economies of the Asian and Far East nations grew 4.4 percent in 2013, up fr om 4.2 percent in 2012. This region includes the world’s second largest and most vibrant ec onomy, China (up 7.7 per cent), and the world’s third largest economy, Japan (up 1.9 percent). The combined economies of Europe remained mired in recession, with Western Europe (e xcluding Turkey) posting no growth and the

combined economies of Central Eu rope and the former Soviet Un ion up 2.1 percent. GDP in Latin America (including the Caribbean) expanded by 2.7 percen t, although Mexico grew just 2.0 percent. The largest economy in the region, Brazil, saw its GDP expand 2.4 percent in 2013, following gains of 2. 7 and 0.9 percent, respectively, in 2011 and 2012. 3.4

2.7

1.8

(0.3)

(2.8) 2.5

1.8 2.8

1.6 3.8 4.7 4.8

2.1

(1.8) 4.6

3.1

2.2 2.3

(4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0)

- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year 

## U.S. and World Gross Domestic Product

US Rest of World

Source: IHS Global Insi g ht, GDP Com p onents Tables ( Interim Forecast, Monthl y)

, Release date 12 Se p tFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

9 

# COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Worldwide commercial aviation continued a slow recovery in 2013 as stable jet fuel prices offset relatively disappoint ing global economic growth. The U.S. industry post ed a net profit in 2013, with a similar outcome predict ed for foreign carriers. After r egistering net profits of $7.4 billion in 2012, global industry net profits for calendar year 2013 are expected to be $12.9

billion. 3 

### All global regions except As ia-Pacific and Africa are proj ected to see an increase in profits as fuel costs remained stable.



## World Travel Demand

Based on data compiled by the International Civ il Aviation Organization (ICAO), world air carriers are expected to post another moderate growth performance in CY 2013 as demand for air travel continues to recover from the depr essed levels recorded dur ing 2009. Preliminary traffic results for full year 2013 released by ICAO show worldwide revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) increased 5.2 percent, a 0.1 percentage point decrease compared to last year’s growth rate. 4

3 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2013.

4 ICAO press release dated December 16, 2013. 7.1

5.6 8.8

1.5

-1.4 8.1

6.1

4.6 5.1 8.1

6.2 7.5

2.7

-2.4 8.8

6.2

5.3 5.2

-4.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013EAnnual Percent Change

Calendar Year 

## World Passenger Demand (International and Domestic)

Passengers RPKs

Source: RPKs (ICAO); Pax (2009-11 ICAO, 2012-13 IATA)FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

10 

### For calendar year 2013, pre liminary data from ICAO show passengers were up 5.1 percent over calendar year 2012. Data for the same period shows capacity, as measured by available seat kilometers (ASKs), to be up 4.6 percent.

Traffic and capacity data from t he Association of European Airlin es (AEA) for calendar year 2013 showed year over year gains in RPKs ranging between 0.8 percent to 4.9 percent and year over year changes in ASKs ranging betwe en -1.8 percent to 3.4 percent.

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecAnnual Percent Change

Month 

## European Carriers Capacity and Traffic

Calendar Year 2013

ASKs RPKsFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

11 

### The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines ( AAPA) reported an increas e of 5.2 percent in international RPKs and a 4.8 pe rcent increase in international ASKs; international passengers in the region were up 6.0 percent during the same period. 5

5 Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, “Asia Pacific Full Year 2013 Traffic Results”, Press Release dated 28 January 2014, Issue 2014: 02. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecYear over Year Percent Change

Month 

## Asia Pacific Carriers International Capacity and Traffic

Calendar Year 2013

ASKs RPKsFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

12 

### In CY 2013, U.S. and foreign flag carriers tr ansported an estimated 183.6 million passengers

between the United St ates and the rest of t he world, a 4.4 percent in crease from 2012. Yearover-year growth occurred in all markets (up 3. 2, 5.6, 4.9, and 3.6 per cent, respectively, for
Atlantic, Latin America, Paci fic, and Canada Transborder).

50 50 53 57 55 56 58 61 63 44 47 49 50 48 53 57 61 65 25 26 26 26 24 27 28 31 32

20 21 22 22 20 22 23 23 24

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013EMillions of Passengers

Calendar Year 

## Total Passengers To/From the U.S. U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

Atlantic L. America Pacific Canada Transborder

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce;FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

13 

### Worldwide air cargo demand increased for the first time in three years in 2013. According to ICAO, worldwide freight ton kilometers were esti mated to increase 1.0 per cent in calendar year 2013 compared to 2012. Freight ton kilometers (FTKs) of AEA member carriers rose 1.8 percent in calendar y ear 2013 while the inter national FTKs of AAPA me mber carriers fell 0.6
percent.

The International Air Transport Asso ciation (IATA) reports that wo rld air carriers (including U.S. airlines) are expected to register an operating profit of $23.6 billion for 2013. IATA estimates global airline industry net profits to be $12.9 billion for the same period with all regions except

Africa to be in the black. Based on financial data compiled by ICAO and IATA, between 2004 and 2013 world airlines produced cumu lative operating profits of $ 124.8 billion (wit h nine years out of ten posting gains) and net profits of $27.2 billion ( with six years out of ten posting gains). 6

6 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2013. 2.6 6.1 6.2

-3.4 -0.7 19.0

1.4

-0.6 1.0 2.5 6.3
4.7

-0.7

-8.8 19.4

-0.1 -1.6 1.0

-15.0 -10.0

-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013EAnnual Percent Change

Calendar Year 

## World Air Cargo Demand

Tonnes RTKs
Source: IATAFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

14 

## U.S. Travel Demand

By year end of FY 2013, the U. S. commercial aviation industr y consisted of 15 scheduled

mainline air carriers that used large passenger jets (o ver 90 seats) and 63 regional carriers that used smaller piston, turboprop, and region al jet aircraft (up to 90 seats) to provide connecting passengers to the larger carriers. Mainline and regional carriers offer domestic and international passenger service between t he U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional carrier international se rvice is confined to the border markets in Canada, Mexico, and

the Caribbean. Thirty all-cargo carriers we re providing domestic and/or international air cargo

service at the end of 2013.

Shaping today’s commercial air ca rrier industry are three distinct trends: (1) continuing industry consolidation and restructuring; (2) continued capacity discipline in response to external shocks, and (3) the prolifer ation of ancillary revenues.

The restructuring and consolidation of the U.S. airline industry th at began in the aftermath of the terror attacks of Septem ber 11, 2011 continued in 2013. During the year, Southwest continued to integrate the former AirTran network into its operations as did United wit h the former Continental

Airlines network. The culmination of the consolidation trend occurred on February 14, 2013, when American and US Airways (the thir d and fifth largest U.S. airlines, res pectively) announced a 4.4 15.0 19.9

-1.1 1.9 28.9

14.1 14.8 23.6

-4.1 5.0 14.7

-26.1 -4.6 19.2

8.4 7.4 12.9

-30.0 -20.0 -10.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013EBillions of Dollars

Calendar Year 

## World Air Carrier Profit/Loss

Operating Net Source: IATAFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

15 

### merger agreemen t that, if approved, would create the worl d’s largest airline 7 

### . Consequently, when compared to 2007, 7.0 percent fe wer domestic ASMs were flown and 5.2 percent less passengers were carried domestically in 2013. This has had clear implications on the size of the aircraft being

used and the load fact ors, topics that will be discussed later in this document.

One of the most striking outcomes of industry restructuring has been the unpre cedented period of capacity discipline, especially in domestic markets. Between 1978 and 2000, ASMs in domestic

markets increased at an av erage annual rate of 4 percent a ye ar, recording only two years of decline. Even though domestic ASMs shrank by 6.9 percent in FY 2002, following the events of September 11, 2001, growth resumed and by 2007, domestic ASMs were 3.6 percent above the FY 2000 level. However, since 2007, U.S. domestic market ASMs have decreased by 7.0 percent, as the industry responded first to the shar p rise in oil prices ( up 155% between 2004 and 2008) and then the global recession that followed (2009 to the present).

The 7.0 percent reduction in domestic capacity since 2007 has not been shared equally between

the mainline carriers and their regional counterparts. To bette r match demand to capacity, the

mainline carriers contracted out “thin” routes to their regional counterpar ts because they could provide lift at a lower co st, or else they simply removed the capa city altogether. In 2013, the mainline carrier group provided 8.0 percent less capacity than it did in 2007 (and carried 6.6 percent fewer passengers). Capacity flown by the regional group has shrunk by 0.4 percent over the same period (wit h passengers carried do wn 0.5 percent).

The most recent trend to take hold is that of ancillary revenues. Ca rriers generate ancillary revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers. This includes the un-bundling of serv ices previously included in t he ticket price such as checked bags and on-board meals, and by adding new services such as boarding priority. As noted earlier, U.S. passenger carriers po sted net profits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013 with ancillary revenues a contributing fact or to the favor able outcome.

Commercial Air Carriers – Passenger

U.S. commercial air carriers’ traffic and capacity in 2013 showed little growth for the second year in a row. System (the su m of domestic plus international ) capacity increased 0.8 percent

to 1.003 trillion ASMs while RPMs increased 1.4 percent to 834.1 billion. During the same period system-wide passengers incr eased 0.4 percent to 739.3 milli on; U.S. mainline carrier passenger growth was 1.1 perc ent while regional carrier s carried 2.3 percent fewer passengers. In the domestic market, main line passengers saw an increase for the third consecutive year, up 0.8 percent, marking the fi rst time since 1998-2000 that the industry recorded three consecutive years of passenger growth in the domesti c market. Mainline passengers in international markets posted a fourth year of growth, up 2.9 percent.

Even though the recession was o fficially over in June 2009 8 

### , carriers continued to face economic uncertainty in 2013 as corporate travel budgets remained strained, high

7 On December 9, 2013 American and US Airways me rged to form American Airlines Group, Inc.

8 According to the National Bureau of Economic Research.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

16 

### unemployment persisted and uncertainty surrounding the expiration of the payroll tax break in January, the impacts of sequestrati on in April, and the threat (which ultimately proved real) of a federal government shutdown at the end of September s hadowed other more positive developments. In such an uncer tain environment, industry capacity growth was restrained (up 0.8 percent), after only a 0.1 per cent increase in 2012. Giv en the minimal increase in seats available to the travelling public, carriers were still able to raise airfares despite the slow growth in demand. Higher airf ares and ancillary revenues, coupl ed with flat to falling fuel prices resulted in U.S. carriers fi nishing up 2013 with a net profit.

System load factor and trip length continu ed to head upwards in 2013, even as seats per aircraft mile increased. The average load factor reached a record-breaking 83.2 points, up 0.5 points from 2012. Passenger trip length posted its largest increa se since 2008, up 12.1 miles, to 1,128.2 miles. Seat s per aircraft mile increased to 142. 9 seats (up 1.4 seats per aircraft mile).FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

17 7.4

2.7 3.9

0.8

-7.1 2.2 3.5

0.9 1.4 7.0

0.4 3.4

-0.8

-7.2 1.2 2.6

0.8 0.4

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013EAnnual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers System RPMs and Enplanements

RPMs Enplanements

3.2

-3.4 0.9

-2.0

-8.4 -1.5 0.4

-1.6 -2.0 5.3

-0.2 2.7

1.4

-7.3 -0.5 3.4

0.1 0.8

-10.0

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013EAnnual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers System ASMs and Aircraft Operations

Operations ASMsFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

18 

### Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic 9 

### ASMs increased 0.8 percent in 2013 after in creasing just 0.1 percent in 2012. Departures were down 1.7 percent for the year after falling 2.0 percent in FY 2012. Mainline carrier ASMs were up 1.3 percent for the year, wh ile regional carrier ASMs fell 2.8 percent. At the end of FY 2013, domestic AS Ms were still 7.0 percent below pre-recession levels (2007) with departures down 15.3 percent.

Unlike 2012, domestic passenger enplanements grew at a slower rate than ASMs in 2013, up 0.1 percent for the year. Domestic passengers were unchanged from 201 2 levels in the first half of the year, and showed only a slight improvement in the second half of the year. On a year-over-year basis, mainline carrier enplanement s were up 0.8 percent for the year while regional carrier enplanements fell for the second consecutive year, down 2.2 percent, marking the first time since deregulation in 1978 that this sector of the industry has recorded back-toback declines in passengers.

9 The 50 states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands



### . -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Oct-12 Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug SepYear over Year Percent Change

Month 

## U.S. Commercial Carriers Domestic Capacity*

Fiscal Year 2013

Departures ASMs *Scheduled and Non

‐ ScheduledFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

19 

### Unlike the passenger counts, dome stic RPMs grew faster than ASMs with domestic RPMs up 1.1 percent in FY 2013. After minimal growth in the first quarte r (up 0.2 percent), the pace of growth in domestic RPMs picked up in the se cond quarter (up 1.6 perc ent) and then averaged 1.2 percent during the second ha lf of the year. For the year, mainline carrier RPM growth was 1.5 percent, while regional carrier RPMs declined 1.9 percent.

Domestic carrier load factor increased 0.3 poin ts to 83.5 percent, with both the mainline and regional carriers groups posting reco rd high loads. Mainline carrier load factor increased 0.2 points from FY 2012 to 84.2 percent, while regional carrier load factor increased 0.7 points to 78.4 percent.

Since FY 2007, total domestic capacity has decr eased by 7.0 percent. Mainline carriers have reduced their domestic capacity by 8.0 percent with cutbacks by network carriers more than offsetting the growth of low-cost carriers, while regional carrier capacity has remained virtually flat (down 0.4 percent since 2007). During the same period, mainline carrier RPMs have decreased 3.6 percent, while enpl anements have fallen 6.6 percent. In comparison, over this same period, regional carrier RPMs increased 3. 4 percent while enplan ements have fallen 0.5 percent. As a result, mainline carrier domestic capacity share has fallen from 87.6 percent in 2007 to 86.7 percent in 2013, with the share of domestic RPMs flown by mainline carriers dropping from 88.3 percent to 87 .5 percent during the same period. In 2013 the regional carriers’ domestic passenger share was 23.8 percent, up from 22.6 percent in 2007. -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Oct-12 Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug SepYear over Year Percent Change

Month 

## U.S. Commercial Carriers

Domestic Traffic*

Fiscal Year 2013

Enplanements RPMs *Scheduled and Non

‐ ScheduledFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

20 523.1 516.2 533.9 521.6 476.8 473.6 488.4 494.8 498.8 146.4 152.2 156.2 159.1

154.0 161.6 161.7 159.0 155.5

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013EMillions

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group

Mainline RegionalsFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

21 

### International Passenger Markets

U.S. carrier international ASMs were up 0. 9 percent and departures were up 0.2 percent in 2013. ASMs increased in the Latin, and Pacific markets, up 5.6 and 2.0 percent, respectively; but decreased 2.9 percent in the Atlantic market.

U.S. carrier international RPMs were up a 2.3 percent and passenger enplanements were up 2.6 percent in 2013. T he Atlantic market posted mixed resu lts, with RPMs fa lling 0.8 percent while enplanements increased 0. 4 percent. RPMs and enplane ments increased 6.1 and 3.9 percent, respectively, in the Latin American market, while RP Ms and enplanements increased 3.4 and 2.4 percent, respectively , in the Pacific market. -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Oct-12 Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug SepYear over Year Percent Change

Month 

## U.S. Commercial Carriers

International Capacity*

Fiscal Year 2013

ASMs Departures *Scheduled and non

‐ scheduled ops

Source: DOT F

‐ 41FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

22 

### The international load factor increased 1.2 perc entage points overall in 2013 to 82.6 percent.

Load factor increased in all market s: in the Latin market load factor was up 0.4 points to 81.0 percent; in the Pacific market load factor was up 1.1 points to 83.1 percent; and in the North

Atlantic market the load factor in creased by 1.8 points to 83.3 percent.

In 2013, 54 percent of the passengers flying abroad on U.S. flag carriers traveled to the Latin America market. The remaining 46 percent of international passenger s was split between the Atlantic market (29 percent) and t he Pacific market (17 percent). -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Oct-12 Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug SepYear over Year Percent Change

Month 

## U.S. Commercial Carriers

International Traffic*

Fiscal Year 2013

RPMs Enplanements *Scheduled and non

‐ scheduled ops

Source: DOT F

‐ 41FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

23 

### Commercial Air Carriers – Cargo

Air cargo traffic contains bo th domestic and international fr eight/express and mail. The demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulti ng from economic activity. Cargo moves in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in de dicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alter native shipping modes such as trucks, container ships, and rail cars.

U.S. air carriers flew 34.8 bill ion revenue ton miles (RTMs) in 2013, down 4.8 percent from 2012. Domestic cargo revenue ton miles (RTMs) increased slightly (a 0.7 percent increase) to
12.4 billion. However, international RTMs decreased by 7.5 percent to 22.4 billion.

Air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers comp rised 79.7 percent of total RTMs in 2013, with passenger carriers flying the remainder. Total RT Ms flown by the all-cargo carriers decreased 5.0 percent in 2013 from 29.2 billion to 27.7 billion. To tal RTMs flown by passenger carriers were 7.1 billion in 2013, 3.8 percent lower than in 2012. 16.1 15.4 15.2 14.4 11.9 12.8 12.0 12.3 12.4 23.1 24.0 24.7 24.4

19.1 23.1 25.2 24.3 22.4

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013EBillions

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Cargo Revenue Ton Miles

Domestic RTMs International RTMsFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

24 

### International Air Cargo R evenue Ton Miles by Region

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic c an be divided into four components consisting of Atlantic, Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International .’ In 2013 total inter national RTMs decreased 7.5 percent from 24.3 billion to 22.4 billion with all regions posting declines. The largest decrease was posted in the ‘Ot her International’ category wher e cargo RTMs fell by 14.6 percent from 6.80 billion RTMs to 5.81 billion RTMs. The Pacific market saw cargo RTMs fall by 4.5 percent from 8.57 billio n RTMs to 8.18 billion RTMs, wh ile the Atlantic market saw a greater contraction of 5.2 percent from 7.03 billion to 6.66 bill ion. The Latin market had smallest decline as cargo RTMs fell from 1.87 billion RTMs to 1.79 bil lion RTMs a decrease of 4.4 percent.



## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2013 Financial Results

U.S. commercial air carriers posted a net profit of $ 5.3 billion during FY 2013 after reporting a net profit of $204 milli on one year earlier.

-1.2 5.6 10.2

-2.0 0.8 9.7

7.6 7.6 10.8

-11.7 -0.2 5.9

-18.6 -7.8 3.4 2.0

0.2 5.3

-25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0

-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013EBillions of Dollars ($)

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Operating and Net Profit/Loss

Operating Profit/Loss Net Profit/Loss Source: DOT Form 41 & 298CFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

25 

### Operating revenues (passenger a nd cargo) for FY 2013 were up 0.8 percent from FY 2012. Passenger carriers saw their revenue increase 1.3 percent despite the minimal increase in

traffic. The increase in revenue underscored the ability of passenger carriers to push through

fare increases and to offer va lue-added services t hat leisure and busi ness passengers were willing to buy. Revenues for cargo carriers fell by 1.2 percent with the slowdown in cargo traffic after rising 2.2 perc ent in FY 2012.

During the same period, operating expenses for all carriers fell 0.9 percent following a 3.7 percent increase in FY 2012. The decrease in operating expenses during FY 2013 was driven by a 0.6 percent fall in the price of fuel for the year.

In FY 2013, passenger carriers re ported operating income of $9.6 billion and net in come of $4.9 billion, while air cargo carriers re ported an operat ing profit of $1.2 billi on and a net income of $415 million. In the domestic market, passenge r carriers generated an op erating profit of $5.9

billion and net income of $2.4 billion. In the international market, th is carrier group posted operating and net profits of $3.7 billion and $2.5 billion, respectively. Cargo carriers posted an operating prof it of $4.4 billion and a net income of $2.8 billion in domestic markets. In international markets, the cargo carriers reported an op erating loss of $3.2 bi llion and net loss of $2.4 billion.

The rebound in the industry’s financial results in FY 2013 is largely due to a turnaround in the performance of the networ k carriers. After posti ng a net loss in FY 2012 of $971 million, this carrier group posted operati ng profits of $7.1 billion and net income of $3.7 billion. For the eight reporting low-cost carriers, operat ing profits totaled $1.8 bil lion and net income totaled $1.0 billion for the full year.

Capacity discipline combined with stable demand resulted in a modest increase in mainline carrier passenger yield for the year. Domestic mainline carrier passenger yield increased 2.4 percent in 2013.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

26 

### ` Of the reporting regional carriers, operating prof its totaled $0.4 billio n and net income totaled $133 million for FY 2013, despite domestic yield fa lling 11.6 percent. As the industry continues to restructure, network carriers have negotiated contract s with their regional partners that shift more of the financial risk of contract flying to t he regional carriers. Si nce 2007, regional carrier yield is down 48.4 percent in real terms (compar ed to an increase of 3. 1 percent in mainline carrier yield for the same period) . In addition, longer trip lengths (due to a growing number of larger and faster regional jet airc raft entering the fleet) and higher load factors have also contributed to the drop in regional yield. All other things being equal, an increase in either the trip length or the load factor re sults in a drop in yield since fee-for-departure revenues are spread over a broader base of RPMs.



## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2013 Aircraft Fleets

The commercial passenger carrier fleet is under going transformation. The mainline carriers are retiring older, less fuel efficient ai rcraft (e.g. 737-300/400/500 , 757/767, and MD-80) and replacing them with more te chnologically advanced A320 an d 737-700/800/900 aircraft. The regional carriers are growi ng their fleet of 70 to 90 seat regi onal jet aircraft and reducing their fleet of 50-seat jet aircraft.

The total number of aircraft in the U.S. comme rcial fleet (including regional carriers) is estimated at 6,727 for 2013, a decrease of 184 aircraft from 2012. This includes 3,774 mainline air carrier passenger aircraft (o ver 90 seats), 740 mainline air carrier cargo aircraft, and 2,213 regional carrier aircra ft (jets, turbopr ops, and pistons). 0 5 10 15 20 25

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013ERevenue per Mile (₵)

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Passenger Yield

Mainline RegionalsFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

27 

### The mainline carriers’ passenger jet fleet incr eased by 41 aircraft in 2013, following a 3 unit
increase in 2012, as both network carriers and low cost carriers added to their fleets. Despite the increase in the fleet in 2013, the mainline ca rrier fleet now stands at 15.9 percent below (714 aircraft) the le vel it was in 2000. Unlike the mainline carrier fl eet, the regional carrier fleet shrank in 2013, falling by 127 units. Since reachi ng a peak in 2007, the U.S. regional carrier fleet has been reduced by more than 20 percent (567 units). Consolidation among regional carriers and high fuel prices continue to spur re tirements of 50 seat and smaller regional jets as well as small piston and turboprop aircraft. 3,774 3,733 3,730 3,722 3,694

3,784 3,982 3,897 3,906

2,213

2,340 2,566 2,613 2,653 2,682

2,780 2,732 2,779

740

838 870 850 841

960 974 1,012 1,001

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2013E

2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005

Number of AircraftCalendar Year 

## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Aircraft Fleet

Cargo Regionals Mainline ACFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

28 

# GENERAL AVIATION

General aviation industry cont inued its modest growth, especiall y with the help from strong growth in rotorcraft, multi-engine piston, and the agricultural ai rcraft segment of the turboprop
deliveries, as well as a moder ate growth in the single-engine piston sector. Slow economic recovery and economic uncertainties continued to impact the turbojet deliveries. Based on figures released by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), U.S. manufacturers of general aviation aircraft delivered 1,615 aircraft in CY 2013, 6.4 percent more

than CY 2012. This translates in to the third year of increase in shipments. Overall piston deliveries increased by 6.5 percent, with single- engine deliveries up 4. 5 percent and the much smaller multi-engine category up 27.0 percent. In t he turbine categories, tu rbojet deliveries fell by 3.7 percent. Turboprop deliveries were up by 13.8 percent in 2013, even though a substantial portion of the deliveries were for the export market. U.S. billings in CY 2013 were totaled $11.1 billion, up 38.1 percent from 2012, contributed by deliveries of more advanced

models.

General Aviation operations at combined FAA a nd contract towers decreased 1.2 percent in 2013, led by a 2.8 percent decline in itinerant operations, despite a 0.7 percent increase in local operations. General aviation activity at consolidated traffic facilities (FAA TRACONs) fellFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

29 

### 2.8 percent, while the number of general aviation aircraft handl ed at FAA en-route centers declined by 0.5 percent.

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flow n, and utilizat ion from the G eneral Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA Survey), wh ich has been conducted annu ally since 1977, as baseline figures upon which assu med growth rates are applied. Beginning with the 2004 GA Survey, there were significant improvements to the survey methodology. These improvements included conducting 100 percent samples for turbopr ops and turbojets, all rotorcraft, all aircraft in Alaska and all aircraft oper ating on-demand under Part 135. In addition, the sample design was revised to stratify by aircraft type (15 cat egories), FAA region (9 ca tegories), whether the aircraft was manufactured in the past 5 years (2 categories), and whether the aircraft operates under a Part 135 certificate (2 categories). Furthermore, a large fleet reporting form was incorporated to allow owners/op erators of multiple aircraft to report aggregate data for their entire fleet on a single form. In 2005 an additional aircraft cate gory (light sport aircraft) was added. As a result of these changes the samp le size nearly doubled. Between 2003 and 2005 large changes in both the number of aircraft (turbojets up by 22. 8 percent, total rotorcraft up by 33.7 percent) and hours (singl e-engine piston down by 17.6 per cent) in many categories occurred. The results of 2011 survey were not av ailable to use. Theref ore, estimates of 2011

fleet and hours were based on estimated number of general aviation aircraft in the FAA civil aircraft registration database by the end of CY 2011, and past rates of active aircraft and utilization by type of aircraft and age of the fleet. The results of the 2012 Survey, the latest one
available, were consistent with the results of past surveys since 2004. This reinforces our belief that methodological improvements have brought about superior estimates relative to those in the past and they are used as the basis for our forecast.

In 2010 FAA issued a Rule for Re-Registrati on and Renewal of Aircraft Registration. According to this rule, all aircra ft registered in the U.S. had to re-register over the three-year period from 2011 to 2013, and afte rwards registrations must be renewed every three years.

The effect of this Rule was recorded in the resu lts of 2012 GA Survey that the number of active GA aircraft went down by 6.4 percent, from 223,370 in 2010 to 209,034 in 2012. The biggest decline was in the piston aircraft category, in which the number of active aircraft decreased 7.9 percent from 155,419 to 143,160.

Based on the latest FAA assumptions about the impa ct of the re-registration rule, fleet attrition and aircraft utilization, along with General Aircra ft Manufacturer’s Associat ion (GAMA) aircraft shipment statistics, the active general aviation fleet is estima ted to have decreased 3.0 percent in 2013 at 202,865. General av iation flight hours are estimated to have decreased by 1.8 percent in 2013 at 24.0 million.

Student pilots are important to general aviation and the aviation industry as a whole. Student pilot numbers had been in decline for many years, but in 2010 the FAA issued a rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot ce rtificates for pilots under the age of 40 from
36 months to 60 months. As a result, accord ing to statistics compiled by the FAA’s Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center, t he number of student pilots at the end of 2010 increased by 64.8 percent, or approximately by 47,000 pilots, compared to calendar year end 2009. While the impact of the new rule on the long term trend in student pilots has yet to be fully determined, by the end of 2013, the number of student pilots slight ly increased by 0.3 percent from its 2012 level to 120,285. The average age of a U.S. pilot in 2013 was 44.8 years old.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

30 

# FAA OPERATIONS

In 2013, activity at FAA facilities declined for the sixth consecutive year. Commercial air traffic activity fell for the fifth time in six years as air carrier activity fe ll slightly while air taxi activity declined more substantially. The declines in activi ty were a continuation of a trend that started

in the second half of FY 2011. Noncommercial activity also declined as both general aviation and military levels fell.

Total activity at combined FAA and contract to wer airports (the set of 516 towers where FAA provides service, ranging from Atlanta (the busie st with 914,000 operatio ns) to towers with as few as 7,000 operations (Branson, MO) was 49.9 million operat ions in 2013, down 1.3 percent from 2012 and 27.3 percent below the peak activity level recorded in 2000. In 2013, commercial activity (the sum of air carrie r and commuter/air taxi ) at combined FAA and contract towers fell by 1.3 percent for the second consecutive year. Air carrier operations were down 0.8 percent while commuter/air taxi operation s declined 2.1 percent. Commerc ial operations in 2013 were 17.3 percent lower than th eir peak in 2005.

Non-commercial activity (the sum of general aviation and military) at combined FAA and contract towers decreased 1.2 percent in 2013 following a 0.4 percent increase in 2012. General aviation activity (25.8 million) was down 1.2 percent while military activity (2.6 mi llion) was down 1.0 percent. At the end of 2013, n on-commercial aircraft activity was 33.7 percent below the activity

in 2000.

In FY 2013, total operations at the la rge hubs decreased by 0.9 per cent to 12.5 million, and constituted 24.7 percent of all to wered operations. Ac tivity at the medium hubs fell by 2.9 percent to 5.3 million while activity at the sm all and non-hub towers dec reased by 1.1 percent,

from 32.8 million to 32.4 million. The share of total towered operations at the medium, and small

and non-hub towers in FY 20 13 were 10.3 and 65.0 percen t, respectively. Since 2000, operations at large hubs have declined by 12.4 percent, while operations at medium hubs have fallen by 41.6 percent, and operat ions at small and non-hub towers have declined by 29.1
percent.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

31 

### The FAA pays close attent ion to the trends occurr ing at the “Core 30” airp orts. These airports represent the top 30 airports in the country in terms of passenger activity (excep t Memphis which is a major freight hub) and ac count for about 70 percent of co mmercial passenger s. Commercial activity at the Core 30 airp orts peaked in 2005, but subseq uent industry restructuring has resulted in a drop in combined commercial activity at these ai rports since then. In 2013, commercial activity at the Core 30 airports fell by 1.3 percent from the previous year and was 10.2 percent below 2005 activity levels. Of the Core 30 airports, nine recorded increases in activity from 2012 with the largest increases oc curring at Dallas-Fort Wo rth (up 4.7 percent) and Honolulu (up 3.8 percent). Th e largest decreases in activity occurred at Memphis (down 16.2 percent), and Baltimore (down 4.1 percent). Only six of the Core 30 airports exceeded 2005 peak activity levels during FY 2013, unch anged from the number in 2011 and 2012. 37.0 35.8 35.9

34.1

30.6 29.2 28.6 28.7 28.4

26.1 25.2 25.3 24.8

22.4 22.1 22.1 21.9 21.6

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Millions

Fiscal Year 

## Aircraft Activity

at Combined FAA and Contract Towers

Non Commercial CommercialFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

32 

### Since 2005 there has been a pronounced shift in demand which is reflected in the relative growth of commercial operations across the Core 30 airports. Commercial operations at San Francisco (up 22.0 percent), New York-Kennedy (up 13.8 percent), and Charlotte (up 10.1 percent) have increased the most relative to thei r 2005 activity levels. Commercial operations at Dulles (down 42.9 percent) and Memphis ( down 38.7 percent) have shown the largest declines from 2005 levels. These activity level shifts reflect the impact of airline industry restructuring. The demise of Independence Air and Unit ed’s continuing re structuring of its

network resulted in a dramatic re duction of operations at Dulles; while the bankruptcy of Delta, its subsequent merger with Northwest, and the rest ructuring of the combined network has led to a dramatic shrinking of operations in Memphis.

Non-commercial activity, 91 percent of which is in general aviation, decreas ed 1.2 percent in 2013 with general aviation acti vity falling by the same amoun t. Breaking do wn the general aviation activity by hub size, ge neral aviation activity at large hubs rose by 0. 3 percent, while activity at medium hubs fell 2.6 percent. G eneral aviation activity at small and non-hubs decreased by 1.5 percent. Howeve r, general aviation ac tivity at all hub categories has fallen substantially since 2005, down 40.3, 38.7, and 27 .6 percent, respectively, at large, medium, and small/non hubs. Rising fuel prices, stagnant ho usehold incomes, falling household wealth, and a shrinking pilot population are all viewed as contribut ing to the long run decli ne in general aviation activity.

In 2013, total activity at FAA en-route centers (40.0 million) fe ll for the second year in a row, down 2.3 percent from 2012 leve ls, and 15.8 percent below their peak in 2005. Commercial activity decreased 2.2 percent wit h air carrier and commuter/air ta xi operations down 2.0 and 2.9 percent, respectively. Non-commercial activity was down 2.6 percent for the year as general aviation activity posted a small decline (down 0.5 percent) while military activity decreased 9.9 percent. In 2013, air carrier opera tions were 7.3 percent below thei r 2005 activity levels and air taxi/commuter operations were 13. 7 percent below activi ty levels for 2005. Operations for the general aviation and military us er groups were 23.0 an d 58.6 percent below their 2005 activity levels, respectively. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140SFOJFKCLTDENDCAMIAEWRATLDFWLAXIAHLGAORDSEAHNLBWILASMDWSANBOSMCOFLLPHLPHXMSPDTWTPASLCMEMIADPercent of FY 2005 Ops

Airport 

## Only Six of Core 30 Airports are above 2005 Activity Levels FY 2013 VS. FY 2005 Commercial ActivityFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

33 35.1 33.8 34.7 34.1

31.0 31.0 32.4 32.6 31.9

12.4 12.3 12.1 11.3

9.3 9.5 8.8 8.3 8.1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Millions

Fiscal Year 

## Aircraft Handled at

FAA En Route Centers

Commercial Non-CommercialFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

34 

# FAA AEROSPACE FORECASTS

FISCAL YEARS 2014 – 2034

Developing forecasts of aviation demand and activi ty levels continues to be challenging as the aviation industry evolves and prior relationships change. In time s of amplified volatility, the process is filled with uncer tainty, particularly in the short-term . Once again, the U.S. aviation industry has shown that t he demand for air travel is resilient as it rebounds from its most recent downward spiral caused by the Great Recession. As 2014 begins, lingering questi ons remain. Are the U.S. and global economies on firm ground? Have the struct ural changes undertaken by the industry over the past 5 ye ars revamped the industry from one of boom-to-bust to one of sustainable profits? Has indu stry consolidation finished?

The FAA has developed a set of assumptions and forecasts consis tent with the em erging trends and structural changes curr ently taking place within the aviation industry. The intent of these

forecasts is to accu rately predict future dem and; however, due to the large uncertainty of the operating environment, the variance around the forecasts is wider t han it was in prior years.

The commercial aviation forecasts and assumptions are developed from econom etric models that explain and incorporate emerging tr ends for the different se gments of the indust ry. In addition,

the commercial aviation forecasts are consider ed unconstrained in that t hey assume there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the project ed levels of activity. These forecasts do not

assume further contractions of the industry through bankruptcy, consol idation, or liquidation. They

also do not assume an y drastic changes in feder al government operations.

The commercial aviation forecast methodology is a blended one. The starting point for developing

the commercial aviation forecast s (air carriers and regi onals) is the future schedules published by airlines through Innovata. To generate the sh ort-term forecast (i.e., one year out) current monthly trends are used in conj unction with published mo nthly schedules to allo w FAA forecasters to develop monthly capacity and demand forecasts for both mainline and regional carriers for fiscal and calendar years 2014- 15. The medium to long-term forecasts (2 015-2034) are based on the

results of econometric models.

The general aviation forecasts rely heavily on di scussions with industry experts conducted at industry meetings, including four Transportation Research Boar d (TRB) meetings of Business Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees in May 2013 and January 2014 along with the results

of the 2012 General Aviation and Part 135 Activi ty Survey. The assu mptions have been updated by FAA analysts to reflect more re cent data and developing trends, as well as further information from industry experts.

The FAA also presents the dr aft forecasts and assu mptions to industry staff and aviation
associations, who are asked to comment on the reasonableness of the assumptions and

forecasts. Their comm ents and/or suggestions have been inco rporated into the forecasts as appropriate.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

35 

# ECONOMIC FORECASTS

For this year’s Aerospace Forecast, the FAA is using economic foreca sts developed by IHS Global Insight, Inc. to project domestic aviati on demand. Furthermore, the FAA uses world and individual country economic proj ections provided by IHS Global Insight, Inc. to forecast the

demand for international aviation services. A nnual historical data and ec onomic forecasts are presented in Tables 1 through 4. U.S. economic forecasts are presented on a U. S. government fiscal year (October through September) basis, w hereas international forecasts are presented on a calendar year basis.

As the recovery is now approaching its fifth year , the headwinds that have been faced by the economy appear to be diminishing. IHS Global Insight expects the recovery to begin to accelerate and the U.S. economy to grow faster t han in the past few years. In the U.S., private sector debt levels have been coming down and public sector debt levels have stabilized. The housing market had its best performance since 2007 despite a rise in mortgage rates in the

summer of 2013. The most recent data suggest a firming of the employment market. In the global economy, the outlook for Europe is improving and recent data from China still points to a “soft” landing (e.g. GDP growth re maining above 7 perc ent).

The boost to the economy from fiscal stimulus has faded, leaving the economy to depend on underlying strength in private demand. Growth is project ed to accelerate throughout FY 2014 as the drag from the Federal government shutdown, reductions in government spending, and tepid consumer spending during the last Christma s holiday diminishes over the year. On a quarter-by-quarter basis, U.S. economic growth is projected to range between 2.2 to 3.4 percent for the next two years.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

36 

### The modest pace of economic recovery has been most evident in the nation’s unemployment rate. Since peaking at 9.9 percent in the four th quarter of FY 2009, the unemployment rate has come down gradually, dropping to 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 2013. IHS Global Insight is projecting despite the pickup in economic growth, the unemployment rate will drop only modestly in FY 2014, averaging 7.3 percent for the year. The slow fall in the unemployment rate will continue to keep income growth in check. Real disposable income (income after taxes) increased an estimated 1. 5 percent in 2013. The recovery in real disposable income is projected to continue with increases of 2.3 percent in 2014 and 3.4 percent in 2015 as unemployment falls and the role of taxes in any long term fiscal solution

becomes clearer.

In the medium term, (the four year period be tween 2015 and 2019), U.S. economic growth is projected to average 3.0 perc ent per year with rates rangi ng between 2.9 and 3.2 percent. Income growth picks up during the same peri od averaging 3.2 percent per year. For the balance of the forecast period, both U.S. real GDP growth and r eal income growth slow to around 2.4 percent annually. The long-term stab ility of U.S. economic growth depends on sustained growth in the workforce and capital stock along with improved productivity and competitiveness. 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3Annual Percent Change 

## U.S. Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted Annual Growth by Quarter

Fiscal Year 2014 Fiscal Year 2015 Source: IHS Global InsightFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

37 2.8

1.6 2.3 3.2 3.2
3.1

2.4

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2034Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Source: IHS Global Insight

1.4 1.5 2.3 3.4

3.2 3.5

2.3

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2034Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Real Disposable Income

Source: IHS Global InsightFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

38 

### After the price of oil decreased by 2.0 percent in 2013, IH S Global Insight proj ects the price, as measured by the Refiners’ Acquisition Cost, to fall slightly to $98 per barrel in 2014 (down 2.7 percent from 2013). Oil prices are forecast to decline to ar ound $92 to $93 per barrel by 2015/16 and then gradually increase to $118 per ba rrel by 2025. For the remainder of the forecast period, oil prices are pr ojected to grow at the same rate as general inflation, reaching $139 per barrel by 2034.

Inflation continues to remain in check as energy prices fall in 2013 and 2014. After increasing 1.6 percent in FY 2013, the in flation rate (as measured by t he CPI), is projected to rise 1.5 percent and 1.6 perc ent in 2014 and 2015, respectively. After 2015, consumer price inflation is projected to grow between 1.9 and 2.2 percent per year for the balance of the

forecast.

To reflect the uncertainty in the projection of economic growth, the FAA Aerospace Forecast uses high and low economic growth cases along with the base fore cast. The optimistic and pessimistic economic growth cases are based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios from IHS Global Insight’s January 2014 U. S. economic forecast and go out to 2023. The optimistic case sees a successful and partisan-free debt ce iling increase, a credible plan to address sovereign-debt issues in Europe, faster foreign economic growth , along with faster employment growth and sustained improvements in the housing sector. Real GDP growth

between 2013 and 2023 in t he optimistic case averages 3.3 per cent annually compared to 2.7 percent in the base case. The pessimistic ca se assumes partisan politics turn the task of raising the debt ceiling into a polit ical crisis and assumes that in the face of uncertainty, cutting 7.1

-2.0
-2.7

-5.7 0.1 3.4

2.1

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2034Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Source: IHS Global InsightFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

39 

### spending is the best solution. In addition, the Eu rozone crisis intensifies reducing demand for U.S. exports. The private sect or retrenches and the housing mark et slows down, and the U.S. economy continues with growth bel ow 1.5 percent in 2014-15 before finally picking up. Real GDP growth in the pessimistic case aver ages 2.1 percent annua lly between 2013 and 2023, 0.6 percentage points lower than t he base case. Further deta ils about the high and low scenarios can be found in Appendix A.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

40 

## World Economy

After weathering the first contra ction in global GDP since the Great Depression, a deepening recession in Europe and political st alemates in the U.S. over w hat to do with the U.S. federal budget, worldwide economic activity is estimated by IHS Global Insight to have expanded by 2.1 percent in 2013, down from 2.4 in 2012. The advanced economies (U.S., Canada, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan) posted growth in output ranging from a low of -0.2 percent to a high of 2.3 perc ent. The emerging market economies grew 4.7 percent, 0.1 points lower than in 2012 with the economy of Chin a up 7.7 percent, India up 4.6 percent, Brazil up 2.5 percent, and Russia up 1.7 percent. In 2014, economic growth is projected to accelerate to 3.0 percent as the headwinds of the past fe w years, deleveraging in the private sector and public sect or austerity begin to ease. While growth in the U.S. and in the emerging market economies edges up, the re covery in Europe continues to be weak, especially in Greece, Italy, and Spain. Beyond 2014 for the bal ance of the forecast period world real GDP is projected to incr ease an average of 3. 2 percent per year

.

The Asia/Pacific and Latin Americ a/Caribbean regions will continue to have the world’s highest economic growth rates. These regions are expect ed to see their economic activity grow at

annual rates of 4.3 and 4. 0 percent a year, respectively, over the forecast period (2014-2034). 2.3

0.7 0.8 2.4 4.2

2.9

2.7 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.3

2.5

1.7 1.7 2.4 2.8

2.4

2.1 3.2

- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

2011 2012 2013 2013-2034Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year 

## Real Gross Domestic Product by World Region

Total Europe/Africa/ME Latin America & Caribbean Asia-Pacific Canada World

Source: IHS Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 12 Sept 2013FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

41 

### China, which became the world’s second lar gest economy by 2013 (s urpassing Japan) is projected to grow 6. 1 percent a year, while India, projected to see its GDP almost quadruple in size, is growing at an aver age rate of 6.7 percent a year during the forecast period . In contrast, Japan grows at just 0.9 perce nt a year over the fore cast horizon as structur al impediments, and an aging population contin ues to limit growth 10



### .

10 IHS Global Insight, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 12 September 2013FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

42 

# AVIATION TRAFFIC AND ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Total traffic and activity forecasts for commercia l air carriers (the sum of mainline and regional carriers) are presented in Tables 5 through 9. These tables contai n year-to-year historical data

and forecasts.

Mainline air carrier traffic and ac tivity forecasts and the forecast assumptions are displayed in Tables 10 through 18, 21, and 23. These tables contain year-t o-year historical data and

forecasts.

Regional carrier forecasts and assumptions are f ound in Tables 24 through 27. These tables provide year-to-year histor ical and forecast data.

Tables 19 and 20 provide year-to-y ear historical and forecast dat a for cargo activity. Table 22 provides year-to-year hi storical and forecast dat a for the cargo jet fleet.

General aviation forecasts are found in Tables 28 through 31. These tables provide year-toyear historical data and forecasts.

Tables 32 through 34 provide forecasts of aircraft activity at FAA and contract facilities.



## Commercial Aviation Forecasts

System capacity is projected to increase modestly (up 1.5 percent) in 2014. In the domestic market, mainline carrier capacit y expanded only slightly (1.3 per cent) in 2013 but is projected to grow at an even slower rate (up 0.8 percent) in 2014, while capacity for the regional carriers is projected to post its first increase since FY 2011 (up 2.2 percent). In t he international sector, capacity is forecast to increase slowly in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, respectively, and increase modestly in the Latin market -- resulting in an overall internat ional capacity increase of 2.7 percent.

Passenger demand shows minimal growth in 2014 with system RPMs forecast to grow 1.4 percent, the same rate as in 2013. An upturn in growth is projected for the 2015-19 period,

coincident with faster economic growth as system RPMs and passengers increase at an average annual rate of 3.4 and 2.9 percent, respectively. Over the same time period, system capacity growth averages of 3.3 percent per year. For the over all forecast period (2014-34), system capacity is projected to increase an average of 2.7 perc ent a year. Supported by a growing U.S. and world economy, system RPMs ar e projected to increas e 2.8 percent a year, with regional carriers (up 2.3 percent a year) growing slower than ma inline carriers (up 2.8 percent a year). System pa ssengers are projected to increase an averag e of 2.2 percent a year, with mainline carriers growi ng at a higher rate (up 2.3 perc ent a year) than their regional counterparts (up 1.9 percent). By 2034, U.S. commercial air carriers are projected to fly 1.75 trillion ASMs and transport 1.15 billion enplaned passengers a total of 1.47 trillion passenger miles.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

43 

### Planes will remain crowded, with load factors pr ojected to grow moderately during the early years of the forecast period then tapering during the mid to latter years to 83.8 percent in 2034 (up 0.7 points compared to the beginning of the forecast perio d in 2014). Passenger trip length is forecast to increase by more than 141 m iles over the forecast period to 1,276 miles in 2034 (up 7 miles annually). The gr owth in passenger trip length re flects the faster growth in the relatively longer international and domestic trips as compared to shorter-haul flights.

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034Millions of Passengers

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers System Enplanements

Regionals MainlineFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

44 

### Domestic Markets

After expanding slightly in FY 20 13 (up 0.8 percent), dome stic capacity is projected to increase by 1.0 percent in 2014. Mainline carrier capacity is forecast to be up 0.8 percent while regional carrier capacity is projected to increase by 2.2 percent, the first increase since 2011. Domestic commercial carrier capacity growth picks up in 2015-2019 period ( up 2.7 percent per year) as U.S. economic growth accelerates, with ma inline carriers growing slower than regional carriers, 2.6 percent versus 3.0 percent. Fo r the entire forecast per iod (2014-2034), overall domestic capacity is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent, slower than economic growth. Mainline carri ers are projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.0 percent while regional carriers are projected to grow slightly faster at 2.3 percent a year.

Although economic growth is pick ing up in the U.S., U.S. carri er domestic RPM growth in 2014 is projected at 0.9 percent. Traffic growth is projected to be sluggish th roughout the year as carriers continue to keep capacity growth in check. Mainline carrier RPMs are projected to increase by 0.7 percent during 2014, while regional carrier RPMs ar e projected to increase at a faster rate (1.8 percent). Traffic growth improves over the 2015-19 period with annual RPM growth averaging 2.9 percent as the economic recovery gains steam. For the balance of the forecast period (2019-2034) modes t economic growth and falling real yield drive domestic RPM growth of 1.9 percent a year. Over t he entire forecast period (2014-2034), domestic RPMs grow an average of 2.2 percent a year wit h mainline carriers growing more slowly than the regional carriers (2.1 perc ent a year versus 2.3 percent a year, respectively). 1.3

0.8 2.0

-2.8 2.2 2.3

-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

2013 2014 2014-34Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic ASMs

Mainline RegionalsFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

45 

### Enplanements are forecast to grow slightly (up 0.6 percent) in 2014 after a 0.1 percent increase in 2013. Similar to RPMs, passenger growth is expected to pick up in the 2015-2019 period (up 2.7 percent a year) as the recovery gains moment um and then average 1.6 percent per year for the period 2019-2034. Over the entire forecast period, domestic enplanements are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.9 perc ent with mainline and regional carriers growing at the same rate.

The continued modest recovery in demand, coupled with restricted capacity growth, provided pricing power for the mainline carriers during 2013, with nominal yield increasing 2.4 percent (up 0.8 percent in real terms). In spite of slow demand growth, continued tight capacity will provide support for higher fares in 2014, with an increase in nominal yield of 3.0 percent (1.5 percent in real terms). For the entire forecast period, nominal yiel d is projected to increase at an average rate of 1.4 percent a year, while in real terms it is projected to decline at an average rate of 0.5 percent a year. The decline in real yield over the forecast period assumes technological improvements, co mpetition between carriers, and the increasing convergence of

cost structures between network carriers and thei r low-cost counterparts. The convergence in

cost structures between the carrier groups arises from gains in productivity as network carriers

retire fuel inefficient aircraft and hold the line on labor costs wh ile existing low-cost carriers contend with aging fleets, maturing work forces, and larger and more complex networks. 1.5

0.7 2.1

-1.9 1.8 2.3

-2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

2013 2014 2014-34Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic RPMs

Mainline RegionalsFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

46 

### Domestic commercial carrier activity (departures) at FAA air traffic facilities is projected to grow more slowly than passenger traffic over the forecast period (1.3 percent per year for departures versus 2.2 percent for RPMs). This re flects increased carrier efficiencies in three operational measures: aircraft si ze, load factor, and trip length.

Overall domestic aircraft size increased by 1. 6 seats to 124.9 in 2013 as a result of the

combination of the increased mainline carrier dom estic capacity share and increases in the

aircraft size of the mainline carri er group. Mainline carrier aircra ft size increased 1.2 seats with the retirement of older aircraft (i.e. MD-80’ s, 737-300/400/500, and 757’s). Regional aircraft size remained unchanged despite the retirement of 50-seat jet aircraft as larger 70-90 seat jet aircraft entered the fleet. Domestic seats per ai rcraft are forecast to increase in 2014 (up 1.3 seats) as both mainline and regional carrier aircra ft will increase in size. Over the balance of the forecast (2015-2034), domestic seats per aircraft are project ed to gradually increase to 134.6 seats by 2034, an average incr ease of 0.4 seat s per year.

The FAA’s projection of domestic carrier average aircraft size is greatly influenced by carrier fleet plans, publicly known aircraft order books, and the FAA’s expectat ions of the changing domestic competitive landscape. In the near-term (through 2015), the forecast incorporates several assumptions: 1) mainline carriers desir e to constrain ASM capacity growth; 2) the

retirement of older inefficient aircraft (many of which are narrow- body); 3) the shifting of widebody and larger narrow-body aircraft to internat ional services, and 4) growing use of 70-90 seat regional jet aircraft.

In the longer-term, network carriers will replac e their older narrow-body aircraft (A320’s/B757- 200/300) in their domestic rout e networks with next generation, narrow-body aircraft like the

A320 Neo and the 737 Max. The use of smaller aircraft, like t he 100-seat Embraer 190, to supplement carrier route structur es will be limited. The use of the next generation, narrowbody aircraft will allow mainline carriers to be tter serve their customers by more closely matching supply (the number of seats) with demand (the number of passengers), and improve profitability through lo wer operating costs.

Mainline carrier domestic aircraft size increased in 2013 by 1.2 seats to 153.9 seats, and is projected to increase by another 1.2 seats in 2014. Domestic aircraft size for mainline carriers is projected to increase by 0.3 seats in 2015 and then gradually increase for the balance of the forecast. Overall, average aircraft size for the mainline group will in crease by 7.5 seats between 2013 and 2034, going from 153.9 to 161.4.

Regional carrier aircraft size flown domestically is projected to grow at a faster pace than that of the mainline carriers. The faster growth in ai rcraft size for regional carriers is stimulated by

continued deliveries of 70 to 90 seat regional jet aircraft that are entering the fleet as well as

reductions in the 50-seat and under jet fleet. The larger share of 70 to 90-seat regional jets in the fleet, coupled with 50-seat jet and small tu rboprop retirements over the next few years, increases the average seating c apacity of the regional fleet fr om 56.1 seats in 2013 to 58.3 seats by 2016. Over the course of the fore cast, seats per aircraft for regional carriers increases an average of 0.5 seats per year to 66. 6 seats in 2034. The changing aircraft fleet mix is narrowing the gap between the size and ai rcraft types operated by the mainline and regional carriers.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

47 

### The commercial carrier domestic load factor incr eased 0.3 points during FY 2013 to an all-time high of 83.5 percent, with record load factors posted by the mainline and regional carrier groups. The mainline carrier group posted a l oad factor of 84.2 perc ent, up 0.2 percentage points from 2012. Regional carrier load factor increased 0.7 points to 78.4 percent. In 2014,

the domestic load factor is forecast to decrease 0.1 points to 83.4 percent as mainline carrier load factor remains unchanged wh ile regional carrier load factor decreases by 0.3 percentage points. Thereafter, the commerc ial carrier domestic load factor gradually rises to 84.7 percent by 2034.

In 2013 the average domestic passenger trip lengt h increased by 8.8 mile s to 892.4 miles in total, after increasing by 3.5 miles in 2012. Pass enger trip length is fore cast to increase by 2.6

miles in 2014 as carriers continue to restruct ure their networks and rea lign capacity. After 2014, trip length is projected to remain relatively stable for a number of years before steadily increasing from 2018 onwards , reaching 937.9 miles by 2034. The increa se in trip length reflects longer trips flown by the mainline and r egional carrier group. Mainline carrier trip length increases as service in thinner, rela tively shorter haul markets is dropped or relinquished to regional partner s and replaced with longer domestic trips. Regional carrier trip length increases as flying in shorter haul mark ets is abandoned and/or redu ced as more of the larger 70 and 90-seat r egional jets continue to penetrate thinner longer-haul markets previously served with mainline equipment.

Another key factor in predicting aviation activity rela tive to passenger demand is the level of connecting versus non-stop (origin-destination) traf fic. However, as the current cycle of U.S. airline industry restruct uring unfolds and hub structures chan ge, the impact on local communities and airport activity levels can vary significantly.

The FAA analyzes the ratio of passenger enplanements to origin -destination (O&D) passengers over time to identify changes in connecting versus non-stop traffic. This ratio is an indicator of the tendency of the average passenger to connect du ring a typical journey. The closer the ratio is to 1.0, t he more passengers fly on a point-t o-point routing. As the chart below shows, the overall ratio for the U.S. domestic industry peaked in 2002, and then trailed

downward to its lowest level (1.32 enplanements for every O&D passenger) by 2007. The decline in the ratio during this si x year period is characterized by a drop in connectivity by the network carriers and a rising pa ssenger share for the low-cost carriers. As demand for air travel fell during the great rece ssion and fuel costs skyrocketed, the ratio jumped up to over

1.34 in 2009. Since then t he ratio has been in a narrow range between 1.34 and 1.35 enplanements for every O&D passenger, but the 2013 figure was the lowest since 2008. The FAA’s forecast recognizes the changing pattern of domestic traffic connectivity and these trends are captured in the foreca st’s passenger enplanement totals.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

48 

### International Markets

U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

The FAA provides forecasts of to tal international passenger demand 11 

### for travel between the

United States and three world travel areas: Atl antic, Latin America (including Mexico and the Caribbean), and Asia/Pacific, as well as for U.S.–Canadian transborder traffic. These forecasts are based on historical passenger statistics provided by the U.S. Customs and

Border Protection 12 

### and Transport Canada, and on regional world historical data and economic projections from Gl obal Insight, Inc.

Total passenger traffic between the United States and the re st of the world is estimated to total 183.6 million in CY 2013, 4.4 per cent higher than in 2012. Pa ssenger demand growth slows in 2014 (up 3.7 percent) but picks up again in 2015 (u p 5.3 percent) as the U.S. and world economic recovery solidifies. For the balanc e of the forecast per iod, stable worldwide economic growth leads internati onal passengers to grow at an average rate of 4.2 percent a year, totaling 434.8 million in 2034.

11 The sum of U.S. and foreign flag carriers.

12 Customs and border protection data is processe d and released by the Department of Commerce. 1.30 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.39

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013ERatio

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Commercial Carriers Domestic Enplanements per Origin-Destination Passenger

Source: DOT T100 and O&D SurveyFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

49 

### In the Latin America region, sustained economic growth drives passenger growth to an average rate of 4.7 percent a y ear over the entire forecast period (2014-2034). The highest growth is projected for Brazil (average annual growth of 6.0 per cent) while the largest market in the region, Mexico, grows at an average of 4.6 percent a year. The sl owest rates of growth are projected to occur in the Bahamian and Ja maican markets (averagi ng growth of 0.2 and 2.8 percent a year, respectively).

Emerging economies in the Asia -Pacific market boost passeng er demand an average of 4.2 percent per year. Taiwan, Sout h Korea, India and China (pass enger growth of 4.5, 4.5, 5.2 and 6.5 percent a year, respectively) are foreca st to be the fastest growing markets in the region. Growth in the Japan ma rket (the largest and most es tablished in the region) is projected to be well below the regi onal average at 2. 9 percent a year

.

In the more mature Atlantic market, the Open Skies agreement bet ween the European Union and the United States along with competition between global airline alli ances helps fuel passenger growth of 4.1 percent a year over the forecast period. Over the 20-year forecast horizon, average annual passenger growth in the top four Atlantic country specific markets, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and the Netherlands, is 3.9, 4.6, 3.2, and 3.9 percent, respectively.

Growth in the Canadian transborder market is fo recast to be higher than that of the domestic U.S. market (2.0 percent), averaging 3.3 per cent a year over the forecast period.

4.1 4.7

4.2

3.3

- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Atlantic Latin America Asia/Pacific Canada TransborderAnnual Percent Change

Region 

## U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers Passengers to/from U.S.

Calendar Years 2014-2034

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce;

data also received from Transport CanadaFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

50 

### U.S. Flag Air Carriers

International U.S. commercial air carrier capacit y grew slowly in 2013, up 0.9 percent from

2012. The Atlantic mark et continued to shrink (down 2.9 per cent) after declini ng 4.4 percent in 2012. The Latin America market posted a solid 5. 6 percent increase while the Pacific market showed more modest growth, up 2.0 percent. In 2014, moderate demand and increasing competition between global alliances is expected to boost tota l international capacity by 2.7 percent as all markets are expected to grow. The fastest growth is projected for the Latin market (up 5.2 percent), followe d by the Atlantic (up 2.0 perc ent – the first increase since 2011), and the Pacific (up 1.0 percent ). System-wide capacity is projected to accelerate in 2015 (up 4.8 percent), fueled by stronger economic growth project ed for all world regions, and is projected to average 3.9 percent a year for t he remainder of the forecast period. Moderate growth over the forecast period reflects favo rable U.S. and world economic activity as it recovers from the global contraction.

U.S. commercial air carrier international RPMs and enplanements increased 2.3 and 2.6 percent, respectively, in 2013. Increases in RP Ms for the Latin market (up 6.1 percent) and the Pacific market (up 3.4 percent ) offset a decrease in the Atlant ic market (down 0.8 percent). In 2014, U.S. carrier internati onal RPMs are expected to increas e by 2.8 percent as increases

in the Latin American mark et (up 4.5 percent), and in the Atlantic market (up 3.4 percent) more than offset a slight decline in the Pacific market (down 0.1 perc ent). For the balance of the forecast, RPMs increase an average of 4.0 percent a year with the fastest growth in the Latin region (up 4.7 percent). -2.9 2.0 3.2 5.6 5.2 4.8

2.0

1.0 4.2

0.9 2.7 4.0

(4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0)

- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

2013 2014 2014-34Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International ASMs

Atlantic Latin Pacific TotalFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

51 

### International enplanement growth for 2014 is projected to be 2.8 percent as solid growth in both the Latin (up 3.8 percent) and Atlantic (up 3.1 percent) market s offset a slight decline in the Pacific region (down 0.9 percent) where a sl owdown in both China and India’s economic growth impacts demand. Enpla nement growth is projected to rebound to 4.4 percent in 2015 with all regions showing gains . Over the balance of the forecast period (2016-2034), enplanements are forecast to increase an average of 3.8 percent a year with the fastest growth in Latin and Pacific markets (up 4.3 and 4.0 percent a year, respectively).

The growth in U.S. carrier international pas sengers over the period 2014-2034 (3.9 percent a year) compares favorably to the growth in overall in ternational passengers (4.2 percent a year, including the U.S.-Canada transborder market). Forecasts of international demand assume U.S. and foreign flag carriers will benefit from improving economic activity in both the United

States and world markets.

International load factor for U.S. commercial carriers was 82.6 percent in 2013, a sharp increase of 1.2 points from 2012. Load factor is expected to remain steady in 2014 as capacity

increases in line with demand. In ternational load factor is pr ojected to remain steady around 82.5 percent over the bal ance of the forecast per iod to 2034 as traffic growth matches capacity growth in all three world markets.

International passenger real yields for U.S. mainline carriers were dow n 1.3 percent in 2013 as decreases in the Pacific market (down 5.9 perc ent) and in the Latin mark et (down 2.2 percent)

offset an increase in the Atlantic market (up 1.9 percent). In 201 4 international real yield rises by 0.1 percent as strengthening demand in the Atlantic market offsets excess capacity in the (0.8) 3.4 3.2 6.1

4.5 4.8

3.4

(0.1) 4.2

2.3 2.8 4.0

(2.0) (1.0)

- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

2013 2014 2014-2034Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year 

## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International RPMs

Atlantic Latin Pacific TotalFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

52 

### Latin market and weak demand in the Pacific marke t. For the remainder of the forecast period, real yield decreases an average of 0.6 percent a year. In nomin al terms, international yields are forecast to increase 1.6 per cent in 2014, and then grow at an annual rate of 1.4 percent

over the remainder of the forecast. The decline in real yields assumes competitive pressures (including established and relatively new international carriers) and technological improvements will hold the line on fare increases.

Commercial Air Carriers – Air Cargo

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with GDP. A dditional factors that affe ct air cargo growth are fuel price volatility, move ment of real yields, and globalization. Significant structural changes have

occurred in the air cargo industry; among these are air car go security regulatio ns by the FAA and TSA, maturation of the domestic ex press market, a shift fr om air to other modes (especially truck), use of all-cargo carrier s (e.g., FedEx) by the U.S. Postal Service to transport mail, and the increased use of mail substitutes (e.g . e-mail, cloud-based services).

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Mile s (RTMs) are based on several assumptions specific to the cargo industry. First, se curity restrictions on air cargo transportati on will remain in place. Second, most of the shift from air to gr ound transportation has o ccurred. Finally, long-term cargo activity

will be tied to eco nomic growth.

The forecasts of RTMs were based on models that link cargo activi ty to GDP, real fuel prices, and real personal consumption ex penditures (PCE). Fo recasts of domestic cargo RTMs were developed with real U.S. PC E and real fuel prices as the primary driver s. Projections of international cargo RTMs were based on growth in world GDP, adjusted for inflation. The

distribution of RTMs between passenger and all-ca rgo carriers was forecast based on an analysis of historic trends in shares, changes in industry structure, and market assumptions.

Total RTMs shrank by 4.8 percen t in 2013 but are foreca st to grow slightly (up 0.8 percent) in 2014. Driven by steady U.S. and worl d economic growth, total RTMs are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.2 percent for the balance of the forecast period.

Domestic cargo RTMs incr eased 0.7 percent in 2013 and are forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2014 as the U.S. economic recovery strengthens. Between 2014 and 2034, domestic cargo RTMs are

forecast to increase at an average annual ra te of 1.4 percent.

The freight/express segment of domestic air carg o is highly correlated wi th capital spending. Thus, this segment’s growth will be tied to growth in the economy. The mail segment of domestic air cargo will be affected by price and substitu tion (e.g. e-mail).

The all-cargo carriers have increas ed their share of dome stic cargo RTMs flow n from 70.1 percent in 2000 to 88.8 percent in 2013. This is because of the shrinkage of the domestic freight/express business for passenger carriers as they have respon ded to the substantial shocks to the aviation system during this time. Shrinking networks, elimination of unprofitable flyi ng, and consolidation have reduced opportuniti es for growth in their freight/expres s business. The all-cargo share is forecast to grow to 90 .4 percent by 2034 based on increases in capacity fo r all-cargo carriers and ongoing security considerations.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

53 

### International cargo RTMs fell for a second year in a row, down 7.5 per cent in 2013 as fallout from the European debt cr isis and a slowdown in China’s ec onomic growth slowed worldwide trade. They are projected to gr ow 0.6 percent in 2014 as global trade growth resumes. For the forecast period (2014-34) inte rnational cargo RTMs are fore cast to increase an average of 5.4 percent a year based on projec ted growth in world GDP.

The share of international cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers incr eased from 50.3 percent in 2000 to 74.6 percent in 201 3. Continuing the trend experienced over the past decade, the all-cargo share of international RTMs flown is forecast to increase modes tly to 80.9 percent by

2034. 0.7 1.2 1.4

-7.5 0.6 5.4

-10.0

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

2013 2014 2014-2034Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

RTMs

Domestic InternationalFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

54 

## Commercial Aircraft Fleet

The number of commercial aircraft is forecast to grow from 6,727 in 2013 to 8,435 in 2034, an average annual growth rate of 1.1 percent or 81 aircraft annually. The commercial fleet is projected to increase by 17 aircraft in 2014 after shrinking by 184 aircraft in 2013 as the slow recovery in demand and rising fuel prices prompt ed carriers to prune their fleets. Since 2007,

the U.S. commercial airline fleet has contracted by 1,005 aircraft. In comparison, the U.S. commercial fleet contracted by 262 aircra ft between 2000 and 2003, the last downturn in

aviation.

The number of passenger jets in the U.S. mainli ne carrier fleet increased by 41 aircraft in 2013 and is projected to rise by 30 aircraft in 2014 as network carriers continue to remove older, less fuel efficient narrow body ai rcraft. After 2014, the mainline air carrier passenger fleet increases an average of 65 aircraft a year over the remain ing years of the forecast period, totaling 5,112 aircraft in 2034. The narrow-body fleet (including E-190’s at JetBlue and American Airways) is pr ojected to grow by 41 aircraft annua lly over the period 2013-2034; the wide-body fleet grows by 22 aircraft a year as the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350’s enter the

fleet.

The regional carrier passenger fleet is forecast to decrease by 11 aircraft in 2014 as increases in larger regional jets are more than offset by reductions in 50 seat and smaller regional jets and turboprops. After 2014, the regional carrier fl eet is projected to dec rease by an average of 3 aircraft (-0.1 percent) a year over the remaini ng years of the forecast period, totaling 2,141 aircraft in 2034. The number of regional jets (90 seats or fewer) at regional carriers is 1.1 0.8 1.5

-5.4 -0.5 -0.1

-11.7 -0.3 2.4

-14.0 -12.0 -10.0

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0

2013 2014 2014-2034Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year 

## U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet

Calendar Years 2013-2034

Mainline AC Regionals CargoFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

55 

### projected to grow from 1,642 in 2013 to 1,953 in 2034, an average annual increase of 0.8 percent. All of the growth in regional jets over the forecast period occurs in the larger 70 to 90- seat aircraft. During the forecast period, all r egional jets of 50 or less seats are removed from the fleet, reflecting the relaxation of scope claus es. The turboprop/piston fleet is expected to

shrink from 571 units in 2013 to 188 in 2034. Turboprop/piston aircraft are expected to account for just 8.8 percent of the regional carrier passenger fl eet in 2034, down from a 25.8 percent share in 2013.

Cargo large jet aircraft are forecast to increase by 8 aircraft over the next two years (from 740 to 748 aircraft in 2015) after declining by 98 aircra ft in 2013 primarily due to retirements of 727- 200s and 747-200s by Federal Expre ss, Evergreen, and Southern Air. For the remainder of the forecast period, cargo large je t aircraft at U.S. carriers are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent to 1,182 aircraft in 2034. The narrow-body, cargo jet fleet is projected to increase by 5 aircraft a year over the 21-year forecast period as older 757’s and 737’s are converted to cargo service. The wide-body , cargo jet fleet is projected to increase by 16 aircraft yearly.



## General Aviation

The FAA forecasts the fleet and hours flown for single-engine and multi- engine piston aircraft, turboprops, turbojets, pi ston and turbine powered rotorcraft , and light sport, experimental and “other” (which consists of gliders and lighter than air vehicles) aircraft. The forecasts are carried out for “active aircraft,” 13 

### not total aircraft. The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown, and utilization from the General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures upon which assumed growth rate s can be applied. Be ginning with the 2004 GA Survey, there were significant improvement s to the survey methodology. Coinciding with the changed survey methodology, large changes in many categories were observed, both in

the number of aircraft and hours fl own. The results of the 2012 GA Survey are consistent with the results of surveys conducted since 2004, re inforcing our belief that the methodological improvements have resulted in superior estimates relative to those of the past. Thus, they are

used as the basis for our forecast. Because resu lts from the GA Survey are not published until the following year, the 2012 statistics are the latest available. As an additional note, the results of the 2011 survey were not available to use. Therefore, estimates of 2011 fleet and hours were based on estimated number of general aviation aircraft in the FAA civil aircraft registration database by the end of CY 2011, and past rates of active aircraft and utilization by type of aircraft and age of the fleet. The 2012 GA Survey re corded partial effect of the 2010 Rule for Re-Registration and Renewal of Aircraft Registrati on. The complete effect of this Rule, which requires all aircraft registered in the U.S. to re-register within the three-year per iod from 2011 to 2013, will be noted after the 2013 Survey. In the meanwhile, the 2012 Survey showed that

between 2010 and 2012 the nu mber of active GA aircraft w ent down by 6.4 percent, from 223,370 to 209,034. Assuming a sim ilar decline in 2013 as a resu lt of cleaning up from the Registry inactive aircraft that previously thought to be active, GA active fleet is estimated to have decreased 3.0 percent in 2 013 to 202,865. General aviation flight hours for 2013 are

estimated based on the active fleet and other activi ty indicators at 24.0 million, with a decline

13 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the year.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

56 

### of 1.8 percent from th e previous year. Activity fore casts begin in 2014 and continue through

2034.

After growing rapidly for most of the past dec ade, and then slowing over the past few years, the most recent shipment activi ty indicates the modest growth c ontinues in the overall general

aviation aircraft market. While economic uncertain ties still affect the business jet market, the

rate of decline slowed down and a recovery is expected in the near term. The forecast calls for robust growth in the long term outlook, driven by higher cor porate profits and the growth of worldwide GDP, though at rates slightly lowe r than those predicted last year. Continued concerns about safety, security, and flight delays keep business aviation attractive relative to commercial air travel. As the industry experts and prior year’s survey results report a significant portion of piston ai rcraft hours are also used for business purposes, we predict business usage of general aviation aircraft will expand at a faster pace than that for personal

and recreational use. Increased de mand, especially for agricultura l use turboprop aircraft also

contributes to increased tu rbine fleet and hours.

The active general aviation fleet is project ed to increase at an average annual rate of 0.5 percent over the 21-year forecast period, growing from an estima ted 202,865 in 2013 to 225,700 aircraft by 2034. The more expensiv e and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is projected to grow to a total of 49,565 aircraft at an average rate of 2.6 percent a year over the forecast period, with the turbine jet portion increasing at 3.0 percent a year, reaching a total of 22,050 by 2034.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

57 

### The number of active pist on-powered aircraft (incl uding rotorcraft) is projec ted to decrease at an average annual rate of 0.3 perc ent from the 2013 total of 141,3 25 to 131,615 by 2034, with declines in both single and multi-engi ne fixed wing aircraft, but with t he smaller category of pistonpowered rotorcra ft growing at 1.7 percent a year. Si ngle-engine fixed-wing piston aircraft, which

are much more numerous within this group, are pr ojected to decline at a ra te of 0.4 percent, while multi-engine fixed wing piston aircraft are projec ted to decline by 0.5 percent a year.

Starting in 2005, a new category of aircraft (previously not included in the FAA's aircraft registry counts) was created: "li ght sport" aircraft. At the end of 2012, a total of 2,001 active special light-sport aircraft were estimated in this category (Beginning in 2009, experimental light-sport aircraft category was reported in FA A statistics as a separate category and until 2012 reported under light sport aircra ft together with the special li ght-sport aircraft. Starting in 2012, this experimental light-sport group was re -classified within the experimental aircraft category). The forecast assumes about 4.1 perc ent annual growth of t he fleet by 2034, to a total of 4,880 light sport aircraft.

The total number of general avia tion hours flown is projected to increase by 1.4 percent yearly over the forecast period. The FAA projects fa ster growth in hours will occur after 2023 with increases in the fixed wing turbin e aircraft fleet, as well as increa sing utilization of both single and multi-engine piston aircraft as the aging of th is fleet starts to slow down. In the medium term, much of the increase in hours flown reflec ts strong growth in the rotorcraft and turbine jet

fleets.

Hours flown by turbine aircraft (i ncluding rotorcraft) are forecast to increase 3.2 percent yearly over the forecast period, co mpared with a decline of 0.4 percent for piston-powered aircraft. Although hours flown by piston ro torcraft are forecast to incr ease an average of 1.8 percent per year during the forecast perio d, they have a relatively small share (less than 10 percent) in this segment of hours flown by general aviation aircraft; and thus have a small impact on the

overall trend. Jet aircraft are forecast to ac count for most of the increase, with hours flown increasing at an aver age annual rate of 4.2 percent over the forecast period. The large increases in jet hours result main ly from the increasing size of the business jet fleet, along with a measured recovery in utilizat ion rates from recession induced record lows. Turboprop hours are also expected to continue their increase, as also indicated by the 2012 GA Survey, which were significantly higher than previously estimated. .

Rotorcraft hours, which were less impacted by the economic downturn when compared to other categories and r ebounded earlier, are projected to gr ow by 2.8 percent yearly, with turbine rotorcraft growing at an average annual rate of 3.1 percen t. In our previous forecast, we had expected a decline in utilization rates of turbine rotorcraft with the assumption that recently improved affordability at the lower end of the turbine mark et after the introduction of a new light model would cause replac ement of some pistons, but as they would function in their previous piston uses, utilization rates of some new turbines wo uld be closer to those of the pistons. However, sales reports show that mo st of the replacements were not for pistons, which suggest that the new purch ases were possibly to replace other turbine helicopter at the lower end of the market, or the newly intro duced light turbine model was a product fulfilling a previously unmet need at t he light end of the market. Overall, the market growth was robust in both segments of the industry. Therefore, we have changed our assumption of declining

utilization for the tu rbine rotorcraft.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

58 

### Lastly, the light sport aircraft category, whic h now includes only the special light sport (experimental light-sport aircraft is now cons idered as part of the ex perimental aircraft category), is expected to see an increase in hours flown of 5.1 percent a year, primarily driven by growth in the fleet.

The number of active general aviation pilots (exc luding air transport pilots) is projected to be 484,425 in 2034, an increase of over 35,000 (up 0.4 percent yearly) over the forecast period. Between 2011 and 2013, there was a decline of 12,6 59 in the number of commercial pilots, accompanied by an increase of 7,313 in the number of air transport pilots (ATPs). A substantial part of the decline in commercial p ilots is thought to be a result of these pilots obtaining the higher level ATP certificates as required by the Ai rline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration

Extension Act of 2010. This Act mandated that all part 121 ( scheduled airline) flight crew members would hold an ATP certificate by Augus t 2, 2013. FAA estimated there were about 13,000 airline pilots holding a commercial pilot certif icate, most of which were serving at Second in Command positions at the regional ai rlines. Since airline pilots c ould no longer oper ate with only a commercial pilot certificate af ter August 2013 (excluding a limit ed number of special cases as specified by 2013 FAA Final Rule for Pilot Certif ication and Qualification Requirements for Air Carrier Operations), we have reduced our comm ercial pilot forecast compared to the previous year and increased our ATP forecast. Taking this change into consideration, commercial pilots are projected to increase from 108,206 in 2013 to 122, 000 in 2034, an average annual increase of 0.6 percent. The number of student pilots is foreca st to decrease at an av erage annual rate of 0.2 percent over the forecast period, declining from 120,285 in 2013 to 116,050 in 2034. In addition,FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

59 

### the FAA is projecting that by the end of the fore cast period a total of 15,200 sport pilots will be certified. As of December 31, 2013, the number of sport pilot certificates issued was 4,824 reflecting a steady increase in this new “entry level” pilot certif icate that was only created in

2005. The number of private pilots is projec ted to grow at an averag e yearly rate of 0.1 percent over the forecast period to a total of 182,450 in 2034 from 180,214 in 2013.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

60 

## FAA Operations Forecasts

FAA and Contract Towers

Activity at the 516 FAA (264) and contract towers (252) totaled 49.9 million operations in 2013, down 1.3 percent from 2012. Activity is project ed to rise 0.8 percent in 2014, with increases in both commercial and non-commercial activity. Grow th in total activity at FAA and contract towers accelerates slightly in 2015 (1.1 perc ent) and for the balance of the forecast, activity grows at an average rate of 1.0 percent per year, reaching 61.9 million operations in 2034.

Most of the growth over the forecast period re sults from increased comme rcial aircraft activity (up 1.8 percent annually). Air carrier activity is projected to increase (1.4) percent in 2014 as carriers keep capacity in check. Beyond 2014, air carrier activity is projected to increase an average of 2.7 percent per year over the forecast period. The increase in air carrier activity is driven by combination of mainline carriers incr easing capacity in res ponse to growing demand as well as an increase in the op erations of 70-90 seat jets whic h are counted in the air carrier category. Commuter/air taxi oper ations are forecast to fall 1.5 percent in 2014 and decrease 0.1 percent a year for the balance of the forecast period as regi onal jets less than 50 seats exit the industry.

General aviation activity decreased 1.2 percent in 2013 as itinerant activity fell 2.8 percent. Overall general aviation activity is projected to increase 1.4 percent in 2014 reflecting the impact of an improving economy on flight hours and operat ions. For the entire forecast period, general aviation activity at towered airports is projected to increase an average of 0.5 percent a year, to 28.7 million operati ons in 2034. General aviation activity at combi ned FAA/contract towers grows in line with the modes t increase forecast for general avia tion hours already cited. Most operations at the sma ller towers are in piston ai rcraft, while those at t he largest airports tend

to be turbine operations.

Military activity fell 1.0 percent in 2013 and is assumed to remain at 2013 levels (2.55 million) throughout the balance of the forecast period.

The forecasted growth in operations is not unifo rm across all facility categories. Over the forecast period, total operations at large hub ai rports (those airports that enplane 1% or more of total US enplanements) are projected to incr ease from 12.3 million in 2013 to 17.8 million in 2034, an average annual rate of 1.7 percent a y ear. Operations at these facilities are overwhelmingly commercial in nature (95.3 per cent in 2013) and their growth will mirror the growth in total commercial operations. Total oper ations at medium hub air ports (those airports that enplane 0.25 to 0.99 percent of total US enp lanements) are projected to increase a bit slower than the large hubs, averaging 1.5 percent a year over the forecast period, to total 7.1 million in 2034. In the larges t category, small and non-hub air ports, where 82 percent of the operations are non-commercial in nat ure, total operations are proj ected to increase from 32.4
million in 2013 to 37.1 million in 2034, an av erage annual rate of 0.6 percent a year.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

61 

### Operations 14 

### at FAA TRACONs (Terminal Radar Approa ch Control) fell 2.1 percent in 2013, the ninth year in a row. They are projected to remain steady in 2014 as declines in noncommercial activity offset a slight rise in co mmercial activity. After 2014, TRACON operations

are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 1.3 pe rcent for the balance of the forecast, reflecting the increas ingly commercial nature of TRAC ON operations. For the entire forecast period, TRACON operat ions grow an average of 1.2 percent per year, totaling 47.9

million in 2034.

Over the forecast period, commercial aircraft operations at FAA TRACONs are forecast to increase at 1.7 percent per year driven by growth in air carrier activity. General aviation operations at FAA TRACONs are projected to grow 0.6 percent a year, reflecting the slow growth in the general aviation fleet and hours. Milit ary activity is expected to remain at its 2013 level (2.2 million) of activity throughout the forecast period.

En-route Centers

The number of IFR aircraft handled at FAA en -route traffic control centers decreased 2.3 percent to 40.0 million in 2013, as declines in general aviation and military activity offset a slight increase in commercial aviation activity. In 2014 a modest increase in airline activity offsets a fall in general aviation activity, resulting in en-route c enter activity increasing by 0.6

14 TRACON operations consist of itinerant Instrument Fli ght Rules (IFR) and Visual F light Rules (VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in the domain of the TRACON as well as IFR and VFR overflights. -2.1 0.0 1.3

-1.4 0.1 1.7

-2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

2013 2014 2014-2034Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## Tracon Operations

Total CommercialFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

62 

### percent. After 2014, through the balance of the fore cast period, en-route activity increases 1.7 percent annually, reaching 56.4 million airc raft handled in 2034. Between 2013 and 2034 commercial activity is projected to increase at an average annual ra te of 1.9 percent, reflecting

increases in the commercial fleet and aircraft stage lengths. During the same period, general aviation activity is projected to grow 0.7 per cent per year, reflecting growth in business aviation. Military activity is held constant at the 2013 activity level throughout the forecast period.

Activity at FAA en-route centers is growing faster than at tower ed airports because more of the activity at en-route centers is from the faster growing commerc ial sector and high-end (mainly turbine) general aviation flying. Much of general aviation activity at towered airports, which is growing more slowly, is local in nat ure, and does not im pact the centers. -2.3 0.6 1.7

-2.2 0.9 2.0

-3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

2013 2014 2014-2034Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## IFR Aircraft Handled

at FAA En-Route Centers

Total CommercialFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

63 

# UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) continue to be the most dynamic growth sector within the aviation industry. Once enabled, commercial UA S will have the potential to be a significant component of the national airspace system.

Integration of Civil UAS in the National Airspace System-Roadmap

Unlike the manned aircraft industry, the UAS community does not have a set of standardized design specifications for basic UAS design that ensures safe and reliable operation in typical civilian service applications. Ultimat ely, the pace of integration will be determined by the ability of industry, the user community, and the FAA to overcome technical, regulatory, and operational challenges.

The purpose of the Integration of Civil Unm anned Aircraft Systems in the National Airspace System Roadmap is to outline, within a broad timeline, the tasks and c onsiderations needed to enable UAS integration in to the NAS for the planning purposes of the broader UAS community. The Roadmap also aligns proposed Agency acti ons with the Congressional mandate in the

2012 FAA Reauthorization.

The five-year Roadmap will be updated annually and is intended to guide aviation stakeholders in understanding operational g oals and aviation safety and air traffic challenges when considering future investments.

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Comprehensive Plan

The UAS Comprehensive Plan details work that has been acco mplished, along with future efforts needed to achieve safe integration of UAS into the National Airspace System (NAS). The perspectives and information available from t hese individual activities create a framework and reveal an evolving capability for the integration of UAS into the NAS.

The UAS Comprehensive Plan sets the overarching, inter agency goals, objectives, and approach to integrating UAS into the NAS. Each partner agency will work to achieve these national goals and may develop agen cy-specific plans that are aligned to the national goals and objectives.

Unmanned Aircraft System Test Site Program

On February 14, 2012, Congres s mandated the FAA to develop a test site program. These test sites will enable the development of a body of data and operational experiences to safely operate and integrate these ai rcraft into the NAS.

The overall purpose of this test site prog ram is to develop a body of data along with operational expertise to enable the safe operation of these aircraft in the NAS. FAA received 25 applications from 24 states. The following map summarizes the locations of the six testFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

64 

### sites that were awarded on Dece mber 30, 2013. The first test si te should be op erational by July 2014 and the test sites will continue to operate until at l east February 2017.

UAS Spending Forecast

Teal Group's 2013 World Unm anned Aerial Vehicle Systems annua l sector study forecasts

U.S. and international Unmanned Aircraft market s. Teal Group creates a market profile along with a forecast for military and civil market s for both the U.S. and outside the U.S. As summarized in the chart below, Teal Group fore casts significant spending growth. Total procurement and R&D is expected to increase from $5.2 billion to $11.6 billion annually over the next decade. Teal Group’s t en year forecast estimates to tal UAS spending worldwide at $89.5 Billion.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

65 

### UAS Small Commercial Forecast

Once the regulatory structure, operation requirements, and industry standards have been established, the commercial UAS markets will de velop. Relatively inexpensive UAS systems under 55 pounds are economically viable for a commercial standpoint, and we expect that

market demand for UAS will occur within the constraints of the regulatory and airspace requirements.

Once able to legally operate, the FAA estimates roughly 7, 500 commercial small UAS will be operating at the end of five years. This forecast is highly uncertain and is dependent on the regulatory structure finally adopt ed, and the technology and the cost structure of the industry as it evolves. The safe and efficient integrat ion of UAS into the airspace has the potential for

broad benefits for virtua lly all Americans. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023$Billions 

# TEAL UAS Spending Forecast

Total R&D and ProcurementFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

66 

# COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION

Since 1989, the Department of Transportation/F ederal Aviation Administration has licensed over 220 U.S. commercial space launches. The FAA has also granted over 30 experimental permit launches since 2006. Activity in the U.S. commercial sector is expected to increase for

both orbital and suborbital launches.

The FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transpor tation (AST) licenses and regulates U.S. commercial space launch activity including launch vehicles and non-federal launch sites authorized by Executive Order 12465 and Title 51 U.S. Code , Subtitle V, Chapter 509 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch Act). Title 51 and the Exec utive Order also direct the Department of Transportation to encourage, facilitate, and promote U.S. commercial launches. AST’s mission is to license and regulate comme rcial launch and reentry operations and nonfederal launch sites to protect public health and safety, the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy inte rests of the United States.



# Overview

The FAA licenses several expe ndable vehicles used for commerc ial orbital launches. The most frequently used orbita l vehicles are:

 Falcon 9, an intermediate-class launch ve hicle built, operated, and marketed by Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX);

 Antares, Pegasus, Taurus and Minotaur vehicles built, operated, and marketed by Orbital Sciences Corporation (Orbital);

 Zenit-3SL, a heavy-class vehicle built by the Ukrainian company KB Yuzhnoye for the Russian-owned Sea Launch venture, launched fr om a floating launch platform based at Long Beach, CA; and

 Atlas V, a heavy-class vehicle built by United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and market ed by Lockheed Martin Commercial Launch Services (LMCLS).

Companies such as Armadillo Aerospace have also carried out suborbital licensed launches. In addition to launch licenses, experimental permi ts were first granted by the FAA in 2006.

Permits are used for suborbital reusable vehicle development and test flights. Companies that have been active in permit launches include Bl ue Origin, Masten Space Systems, SpaceX, and Scaled Composites.

The FAA Office of Commercial Space Transporta tion does not license or grant permits for

amateur-class rockets which are unmanned rocke ts that have less than 200,000 poundseconds of total impulse and ca nnot reach an altit ude greater than 150 ki lometers above the

Earth’s surface.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

67 

### The FAA licenses launches or reentries carried out by U.S. persons inside or outside the

United States. The FAA does not license launches or reentri es the U.S. Government carries out for the Government (such as those oper ated for and by NASA or the Department of Defense).

Eight commercial spaceports are currently licensed by the FAA. These are located in six states: Alaska, California (par t of Vandenberg Air Force Base and Mojave Air and Space Port), Florida (Cape Canaveral and Cecil Field Spac eport), New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Virginia. Several other commercial spaceports around th e United States are under development including locations in Hawaii, Colorado, and Texas.



# Review of 2013

There were seven orbital FAA-licensed launches in 2013, an increase from five in 2012. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 vehicle made three laun ches including their first mission to geosynchronous orbit. There are nearly 50 future launches on the SpaceX manifest. Orbital Sciences completed the first two launches of the new Antares vehicle and also launched one Minotaur 1 vehicle. Sea Launch (a multinational consortium) had one launch of the Zenit 3SL

launch vehicle that resulted in a launch failur e. SpaceX also carried out the only licensed reentry mission when the Dragon capsule retu rned from orbit for an ocean landing after docking at the Internati onal Space Station.

In addition, there were 7 permit suborbital fli ghts during 2013. Five were carried out by SpaceX in Texas with their Gr asshopper vehicle to test vertical landings of a reusable first stage for the Falcon orbital launch vehicle. Tw o permit suborbital flights were done by Scaled Composites with SpaceShipTwo including t he first powered rocket engine flight. Other companies are preparing for permit flights in 2014.

Successful permit flights or increas es in private financing in 2014 could lead some suborbital companies to pursue licensed flight s and increase the 2014 forecast.

2012 2013 2014 Forecast

Licensed Launches 5 7 8-14

Permitted Launches 2 7 8-25

FAA Licensed and Permitted Launches



### Worldwide there were 23 orbital commercial launches in 2013, compared to 20 in 2012. Russia led competitors with 12 orbital commercial launches in 2013, followed by six by the U.S. (U.S.-manufactured vehicles), four by Europe and one by Sea L aunch. Overall there were 81 civil, commercial and military worldwi de launches in 2013 compared to 78 in 2012.

For more details, see the annual Compendium and Year in Review reports available online at: http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquar ters_offices/ast/reports_studies/#accstFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

68 

# Global Orbital Launch Forecast

In May 2013, the FAA and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) published their annual global forecast for co mmercial launch demand, the 2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts . The report calculates satellite dem and and then applies models to estimate international commercia l launch demand. Multiple satellites can fly

on one launch vehicle. The 201 3 forecast estimated an avera ge global demand of about 18 commercial launches per year to geosynchr onous orbit (GSO) and a global demand of about 13 launches per year to non-geosyn chronous orbits (NGSO). The forecast covers the years 2013-2022. The 2013 forecast is up slightly from the 2012 forecast for both GSO and NGSO

destinations.

Combined 2013 GSO and NGSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecasts



### Commercial GSO launches are used for communica tions satellites with masses ranging from 2,500 to over 6,000 kilograms. Demand for commercial NGSO launches spans a number of markets and payload sizes, including resupply of the International Space Station, commercial remote sensing; science and technology dem onstration; and replenish ment and replacement of low Earth orbit communications satellite syst ems reaching the end of their lifespan. The forecast shows an increasing trend in demand for medium-to-heavy sized launch vehicles. Despite increased interest in bui lding very small satellites (i ncluding satellites known as “cubesats”), the demand for small launch vehicles is only an aver age of 0.3 launches per year. Many small satellites find rides aboard medium-to-heavy lift launch vehicles as secondary payloads.

The GSO and NGSO forecasts are not a prediction of what wi ll actually be launched but instead represents the expected demand for launch se rvices, based on a variety of inputs. The complete forecast report is available at: http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarte rs_offices/ast/reports_studies/forecasts/FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

69 

# Suborbital Reusable Vehicles Forecast

The most recent global forecast for suborbital r eusable vehicles (SRVs) was completed in July 2012. A report prepared by the Tauri Group for the FAA and Spac e Florida covered a 10-year period that estimated dem and once new suborbital vehicles be gin flying. The goal of the study was to provide information for government and industry decision makers on the emerging SRV market by analyzing trends and ar eas of uncertainty in eight distinct markets SRVs could address. The eight markets include: Commerc ial Human Spaceflight, Basic and Applied Research, Aerospace Technology Test and Demo nstration, Media and Public Relations, Education, Satellite Deployment, Remote Sens ing, and Point-to-Point Transportation. The

forecast includes three demand scenarios: bas eline, growth, and constrained. Instead of flights, the forecast estimate s seat demand. The demand is eit her for one seat for a single occupant or a cargo equivalent of 3.3 lockers (based on the size of mid-deck lockers used aboard the Space Shuttle).

Total projected demand for SRVs, across all eight markets, is estimate to begin at around 373 seat/cargo equivalents in Year 1 and increasing to 533 seat/cargo equivalents in the tenth year

of the baseline case. Year 1 represents the first year of r egular SRV operations. Demand under the growth scenario, which reflects increases due to factors such as marketing, research successes, and flight operations, grows from about 1,100 to more than 1,500 seat/cargo equivalents over ten years. The constrained scenario, which re flects significantly reduced consumer spending and gover nment budgets, shows deman d from about 213 to 255 seat/cargo equivalents per year.

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Total

Baseline

Scenario 373 390 405 421 438 451 489 501 517 533 4,518

Growth

Scenario 1,096 1,127 1,169 1,223 1,260 1,299 1,394 1, 445 1,529 1,592 13,134

Constrained

Scenario 213 226 232 229 239 243 241 247 252 255 2,378

Total projected demand for suborbital reusable vehicles by seat/cargo equivalents



### Demand for SRVs is dominated by Commercial Human Spacefli ght. The analysis indicates that about 8,000 high net wo rth individuals from across the gl obe are sufficiently interested and have spending patterns likely to result in t he purchase of a suborbital flight. The second largest area of demand is Basic and Applied Research, funded primarily by government agencies, and also by research for not-for-p rofits, universities, and commercial firms. Aerospace Technology Test and Demonstration, Education, Satellite Deployment, and Media and PR generate the remaining demand. The Remote Sens ing and Point-to-Point Transportation markets are not forecast ed to drive launches at this time.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

70 10-year Suborbital Reusable Vehicle demand forecast



### For more details, see the Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A 10-Year Forecast of Market

Demand report available online at: http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarte rs_offices/ast/reports_studies/forecasts/

Some companies have announced plans to begin oper ational suborbital flights carrying people

in 2014. $0 $50 $100 $150 $200

- 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10Approximate Annual Flight Revenue ($M)Seat/Cargo Equivalents G r o

w

t h : M u l t i p

l e f

l i g

h

t s p e

r d

a

y

, $

1

.

6

B o v

e

r 1 0 y e

a

r s

Ba s e l i n e : D a i l y f l i g h t s

, n e a r l y $ 6 0 0 M o v e r 1 0 y e a r s

Constrained : Multiple flights per week, $300M over 10 years Increased demand from marketing, research successes, and flight operations

Today’s consumer demand and research budgets

If there is a significant drop from today’s

demand Game changing unknowns: price reductions, research discoveries, commercial applications, major sponsorships, others Additional potential demand (not estimated)FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

71 

# RISKS TO THE FORECASTS

The forecasts in this document are forecasts of aviation demand, driv en by models built on forecasts of economic activity. There are many assumptions in both the economic forecasts

and in the FAA models that c ould impact the degree to which th ese forecasts are realized. This year’s forecast is driven, at least in th e short-term, by a number of factors including the strength of the economic recovery and any impac t resulting from the U.S. government fiscal

situation. Also, as numerous incidents in the past fe w years (like the attempted bombing of a

Northwest airliner on Christmas Day 2009, the discovery of mult iple devices on cargo flights out of Europe in October 2010) remind us, terrorism remains am ong the greatest risks to aviation growth. Any terrorist incident aimed at aviation would have an i mmediate and significant impact on the demand fo r aviation services that would be greater than its impact on overall economic activity.

Although oil prices remained high in 2013, there is still considerable uncertainty as to the level of oil prices once the economic recovery is on firmer ground. The FAA’s baseline forecast (derived from economic assumptions in IHS Global Insight’s 30-Year Focus released during the fourth quarter of 2013) calls for decreases in oil prices until 2015. These are relatively modest, with the price of o il approaching $92/barrel by 2015 and then gradually increasing thereafter, approaching $139/barrel by the end of the forecast period in 2034. Some forecasters are calling for a much sharper incr ease in the price of oil. The U.S. Energy

Information Administrati on (EIA) in its 2014 Annual Energy Outlook projects oil prices to remain between $90 and $100/barre l through 2018 and then rising steadily over the next 16 years, approaching $185 per barrel in 2034. While lowe r oil prices give consumers an impetus for additional spending, in cluding air travel, and enhance indust ry profitability, higher oil prices

could lead to further shifts in consumer ex penditures away from aviation, dampening a recovery in air transport demand. Furthermore , while the industry has demonstrated its ability to generate sustained profits at $100/bbl oil, a $20/bbl increase in the price of oil would eliminate the industry’s $9. 5 billion net profit in FY 2013. Over the long run higher oil prices will put increasing pressure on airline costs, delay balan ce sheet improvements and discourage expansion plans or orders for new aircraft as carri ers focus on maintaining and increasing cash balances.

The baseline forecast assumes that global economic growth will accelerate, over the next few years, but weakness in certain areas may threaten the strength an d sustainability of the expansion. The baseline forecast assumes that growth in the emerging market economies will be significantly higher than in the other large economies, in particular the U.S., Japan and the European Union. While econom ic growth appears to be picking up in the U.S., there are concerns about the strength of demand in Japan and in the European Union as these areas continue to be constrained by stru ctural economic problems and in stitutional constraints. In addition, many countries in the European Union are still grappling with th e impacts of fiscal austerity policies, aimed at reducing govern ment spending and deb t, implemented during the past three years which have prolonged the regiona l downturn. Furthermore the steps that were taken to resuscitate the global economy ma y prove to be excessive, since the resultingFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

72 

### surge in liquidity growth may cause asset bubbl es and exacerbate existi ng global imbalances. The current forecasts assume strong passenger gr owth for travel between the United States and other world regions. Any slo wing of worldwide economic activi ty could seriously inhibit the growth in global passenger demand.

With the merger of Am erican Airlines and US Airways co mpleted, the outlook for further consolidation via mergers and ac quisitions (M&A) appears to be ra ther limited. Based on FY 2013 data, the Big 3 (American, Delta, and Unit ed) plus Southwest accounted for almost 77% of the U.S. airline industry c apacity and traffic. Of the network carriers, only Alaska remains independent, although it does have code share agr eements with both Americ an and Delta. In the low cost carrier sector, t he merger between Southwest and AirTran is progressing at a steady pace as the carriers are on track to have full integration of the fleet and a single ticketing system by the end of 2014. Aside from Southwest an d AirTran, there appears to be little scope for further consolidatio n as there are significant obstacles. In particular the financial situation of many low cost carriers limits the po ssibilities of additional merger activity. For many low cost carriers, the shee r size of merger transactions or the amount of financial risk associated with a merger makes fu rther merger activity unlikely. However, U.S. airlines are continuing to explore other options including global alliances. Many of the major carriers in the U.S. are members of global alli ances that operate with some meas ure of anti-trust immunity from the U.S. DOT. While anti-trust immunity may provide flexibility for airline operators across borders, it may create an anti-co mpetitive environment in the ma rketplace. These market consolidating vehicles, particula rly the anti-trust immunity prov isions, may invite increased regulatory scrutiny. If such oversights are launched in the future, this will complicate the evolving structure of the airline industry and may impact demand via new regulations.

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable num bers of large regional jets (70 to 90 seats) into the fleet of regional carriers. However, t he regional carriers’ future is closely linked to those of the larger network ca rriers. As demand continues to slowly recover, financial pressures on regional operators have increased. Furthermore, as consolidation has occurred among the network carriers, many regional carriers have found them selves either saddled with excess capacity or lack of sufficient capacity, or lack of feed traffic. The network carriers continue to make adjustments to the size and breadth of their netwo rks, without providing opportunities for regional carriers to backfill the loss of the mainline service. Delta is well along in its plans to reduce its small (read 50 seat) regional je t fleet and United and the new American Airways have indicated t hat they will also be moving ahead with plans to bring down the number of 50 seat regional jets flown by t heir regional partners. While these actions may provide some opportunities for well positioned regional carriers, the overall impact of consolidation so far has been to reduce opport unities for regional flying substantially.

After suffering through a significant downturn in 2009, business and cor porate aviation have seen a partial recovery during the past four year s. The pace of the recovery in business and corporate aviation is largely based upon t he future prospects of economic growth and corporate profits. Future uncertainty in thes e leading indicators could pose a risk to the forecast, but the risk is not limited to these fa ctors. Public perception of business and corporate aviation, potential environm ental regulations and taxes, along with increased security measures placed on business jets, will place downwar d pressure on the forecast. On the other hand, while corporate prof its are currently high, perceived econ omic and political uncertainties are causing companies to postpone their purchase of new business aircraft. Translation of thisFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

73 

### pent-up demand into sales of busi ness jets in the near future can create an upwa rd impact on

the forecast.

Other factors, such as new and more effici ent product offerings and increased competition from new entrant manufacturers, serve to br oaden the potential of the industry. Estimates

show that a record number of new business jets are delivered overseas and, with the potential easing of regulations on the use of airspace in foreign countries, the scenario for business jet

manufacturers looks all the more promising. Raising the level of security restrictions, and the subsequent travel hassles placed on airline pass engers, could make corporate jet travel look increasingly appealing.

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at most large hubs expected to increase over the next 20 years, but the mix of aircraft is changing for this sa me period. The expected increases in the numbers of regional jets and business jets will increase the impact on the national airspace system and make the FAA’s job more challe nging. This change in the mix of aircraft will impact workload strictly due to the increasi ng demand for aviation services projected over the forecast period.

Although overall activity at FAA and contract towers fe ll in 2013, activity at a number of the largest airports increased in 2013 and delays remained at historically high levels at many U.S. airports. As demand recovers and workload increases, congestion and delays could become a critical limit to growth over the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand and operations are unconstrained in that they assume that there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. Shoul d the infrastructure be inadequate and result in even more congestion and delays, it is likely that the forecasts of both demand and operations

would not be achieved.

There are concerns that aviation’s impact on t he environment could potentially restrict the ability of the aviation sector to grow to meet national economic and mobility needs. Airport expansion or new construction is often a contentious issue because of noise, air quality, and water quality concerns. There is also an ongoi ng effort to address t he climate impacts of aviation. Aviation currently accounts for 2 to 3 percent of global carbon emissions, but this percentage is expected to increase with the growth in operations unl ess mitigated with new technology, renewable fuels, operational improv ements and market bas ed measures. While

certain measures to address clim ate impacts can result in reduc ed costs, such as increased fuel efficiency, other measures, such as market instruments could pose additional constraints on growth. Energy concerns are also rising, driv en by spikes in fuel prices, supply and security issues, and concerns about fossil fuel emissions c ontributing to global climate change. Lack of progress in improving t he environmental and energy outlook for the future fleet may result in more restrictions via standards or operating limitati ons on the fleet in service which in turn may depress growth. By contrast, breakthroughs in quieter, cleaner aircraft technologies and

renewable fuels could reduce environmental and energy constr aints on the forecast, and enable sustainable growth.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

74 

# APPENDIX A: ALTERNATIVE FORECAST

SCENARIOS

Uncertainty exists in all industr ies, but especially in the commer cial air travel industry. As volatility in the global environment has incr eased, the importance of scenarios for planning purposes has increased. In or der to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA has begun to provide alternative scenarios to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and capacity.

To create the baseline domestic forecast, economic assumptions for both U.S. and international regions from IHS Global Insight ’s 30-Year Focus (released in th e fourth quarter 2013) were used to generate enplanements, mainline real yield and nominal yield. To develop the alternative scenarios, assumpti ons from the optimistic and pessi mistic scenarios contained in IHS Global Insight’s 10 year alternatives from t heir January 2014 U.S. forecast were used. Inputs from these scenarios were substituted for the baseline scenario inpu ts to create a “high” and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecast.

International passengers and tr affic are primarily determined by country specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP) provided by IHS Global In sight. Thus, the baseline forecast of GDP for both the U.S. and international regions is modified using the opt imistic and pessimistic

forecasts of GDP described above in order to cr eate a high and low case . Since only the ten year alternative GDP forecasts by Global Insight we re available at the time of this analysis, both

the domestic and internationa l optimistic and pessimistic scenarios extend to 2023 only. 15



# Scenario Assumptions

The FAA’s baseline forecast assumes that the economy recovers from the current downturn and suffers no major mishaps such as large oil price shocks, swings in macroeconomic policy, or financial meltdowns. The FAA’s high case fo recast uses IHS Global Insight’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic forecast sees improv ed business confidence le ading to renewed vigor

in the labor market and sustai ned improvements in the housing sector leading to a stronger economy. A credible plan to tackle sovereign-debt issues in Europe is enacted, and policy decisions in both Europe and Ch ina boost the global economic out look. In this scenario GDP and real disposable income (DI) growth are about 0.4 and 0.7 percentage poi nts, respectively, faster per year than the baselin e forecast and unemployment aver aging 1.5 points lower on an annual basis than the baseline (Real DI and unemployment are used as an input variables to the FAA’s base, high and low foreca sts of enplanements). Converse ly, FAA’s low case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s pessimistic scenario. In the pessimistic forecast, the combination of continued fiscal tightening and a weak global outlook combine to stall U.S. economic growth. In

15 IHS Global Insight, Short-term macro forecast – bas eline and alternatives, released January 4, 2014.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

75 

### the U.S. debt-ceiling induced s pending cuts take a chunk out of economic growth. The sovereign-debt crisis in Europe intensifies pushing Europe back into recession which reduces the demand for U.S. exports. As the private sector cuts back, unemployment rises and housing activity begins to slow. The U.S. economy barel y avoids recession in 2014 and has sub-par growth in 2015. In this scenario, GDP and real DI grow 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively, slower per year than in the baselin e, and unemployment, on average, is 1.4 points higher on an annual basis than in the baseline.

1.7

1.4 2.1

1.6 2.3 2.8

1.7 3.9

3.2

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

2013 2014 2014-23Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## Real Gross Domestic Product

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic Source: IHS Global InsightFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

76 1.6 1.8 2.4

1.5 2.3 2.8

1.5 2.8 3.5

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

2013 2014 2014-23Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## Real Disposable Personal Income

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic Source: IHS Global InsightFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

77 

### Oil prices affect the supply of and demand for air travel and have a direct impact on the profitability of the industry. In all three forecast scenarios pric es fall over the next few years. In the baseline forecast, technologic al improvements act as a counte rbalance to partially offset rising prices. In the baseline, the refiners acquisition cost (RAC ) of oil increases 12.4 percent
between 2013 and 2023, risi ng from $101 to $113 per barrel. In the optimistic case, the price of oil (RAC) decreases at a faster pace through 2017 than in the baseline forecast and then rises more slowly thereafter, resulting in a price of $98 per barrel by 2023. The high case is characterized by availability of energy, further gains in technology, and a stronger dollar which help to temper prices compared to the baseline. In the low case forecast, a weaker dollar and lower productivity gains create upwar d pressure in oil prices afte r 2015. In this scenario, the RAC rises by 35 percent over its 2015 low to $122 by 2023.

100.7 100.7 122.4

100.8

92.6 113.3

100.8

86.3 98.4

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

2013 2016 2023$ Per Barrel

Fiscal Year 

## U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic Source: IHS Global InsightFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

78 

### The price of energy is one of the critical drivers in the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. In the optimistic case the cons umer price index (CPI) grows at an average rate of 1.7 percent per year (compared to growth of 1.9 percent annually in the baseline) as energy prices, wages, and import prices grow more slowly than in the baseline. In the pessimistic case forecast the opposite holds with energy prices, wages and import prices rising more rapidly compared to the baseline. As a result, in the pessimistic case, the CPI grows an average of 2.5 percent annually over t he forecast period.

1.6

0.9 2.5

1.6

1.5 1.9

1.6 2.0

1.7

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

2013 2014 2014-23Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic Source: IHS Global InsightFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

79 

# Alternative Forecasts

Passengers

In the baseline forecast, system passengers are fore cast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2014-2023 (wit h domestic and international passengers up 2.3 and 4.1 percent, respectively). In the optimistic case, passengers grow at a quicker pace, averaging 3.0 percent per year ( up 2.7 percent domestica lly and 4.6 percent internationally). This scenario is marked by a more favorable business environment, lower inflation, and lower fuel prices which make the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. By the end of the forecast period in 2023, passengers in the optimistic case are 6.5 percent above the baseline. The pessimistic case is characterized by a period of slow growth in 2014 and 2 015 along with weakened c onsumer confidence broug ht on by persistent unemployment, higher energy prices, and higher infl ation. In this scenario passengers grow an average of 1.7 percent per year (domestic up 1.6 percent and in ternational up 3.0 percent). In the pessimistic case, system passengers in 202 3 are 6.6 percent below the baseline case, totaling 868 million, 62 million fewer than in the baseline.

0.4 0.6 1.7

0.4 0.8 2.5

0.4 2.9 3.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

2013 2014 2014-23Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## System Enplanements

Pessimistic Baseline OptimisticFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

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## Revenue Passenger Miles

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent a year over the forecast horizon, with domestic RPMs increasing 2.4 percent annually and international RPMs gro wing 4.3 percent annually. In the optimistic case, the faster growing economy coupled with lower energy prices driv es RPMs higher than the baseline, with growth averaging 3.4 percent per y ear (domestic and internationa l RPMs up 2.9 and 4.6 percent, respectively). In the pessimistic case, the co mbination of a slower growing economy and higher energy prices result in RPM growth averagin g 2.3 percent annually with domestic markets growing 1.7 percent a year while internat ional traffic grows 3.4 percent annually.



## Available Seat Miles

In the base case, system capacity is forecast to increase an average of 3.0 percent annually over the forecast horizon (with growth averaging 2.3 percent annually in domestic markets and 4.3 percent a year in internationa l markets). In the optimistic ca se, capacity grows at a faster clip than in the baseline foreca st, averaging 3.4 percent annually (up 2.8 percent domestically and up 4.6 percent internationally ). Carriers increase capaci ty compared to the baseline

forecast to accommodate increased travel demand brought about by a more favorable economic environment and by the end of the forecast horizon, syst em capacity in the optimistic case is 5.9 percent above the baseline case. In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel is lower than in the baseline, thus system capacity grows at a slower pace of 2.2 percent annually 1.4 1.4 2.3

1.4 1.4 3.0

1.4 3.7 3.4

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

2013 2014 2014-23Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## System Revenue Passenger Miles

Pessimistic Baseline OptimisticFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

81 

### (domestic growth of 1.6 perce nt annually and international up 3.4 percent annually). Total system capacity in the pessimistic case in 2023 is 7.0 percent below the baseline and 12.2 percent below the optimistic case.



## Load Factor

System load factors over the 10-y ear forecast period are relatively similar for all three forecast

scenarios. In the base case and in the optimistic scenario, system load factor rises from 83.2 percent in 2013 to 83.7 percent in 2023. In the pessimistic scenario, system load factor increases from 83.2 percent in 2013 to 84.0 percent in 2023. In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side by actively managing capacity (seats) to more precisel y meet demand (passengers). The domestic load factor increases over the forecast horizon from 83.5 percent to 84.4 per cent in all three scenar ios. The international load factor forecast is slightly different in t he three scenarios, reflecting in part the relative growth in demand and capacity in the three (Atl antic, Latin, and Pacific) international regions
under each scenario. In the base case, internationa l load factor is relatively steady, going from 82.6 percent in 2013 to 82.5 perc ent in 2023. In the optimis tic scenario, international load

factor is lower than in the other scenarios, falling to 82.3 percent by 2023, reflecting the faster growth in the relatively lower load factor Lati n America market. In the pessimistic scenario, there is more convergence of future growth rates than in either the base case or the optimistic scenario, resulting in international load factor climbing to 83.3 percent by 2023. 0.8 1.2 2.2

0.8 1.5 3.0

0.8 3.9

3.4

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

2013 2014 2014-23Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year 

## System Available Seat Miles

Pessimistic Baseline OptimisticFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

82 

## Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system yield increases 1.4 percent annual ly, going from 14.27

cents in 2013 to 16.58 cents in 2023. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises

from 14.08 cents in 2013 to 16.50 c ents in 2023, while internationa l yield rises from 14.69 cents in 2013 to 16.73 cents in 2023. System yield rise s more slowly in the optimistic case, up 1.2 percent annually to be 16.34 cents at the end of the forecast peri od. Domestic yield increases

to 16.27 cents while international yield increases to 16.48 cents. The slower growth in yield in the high case is due to advancem ents in technology, gains in pr oductivity, more favorable fuel prices, and lower inflation. In creased competition is also assum ed in this scenario. In the domestic market, fares are driven lower than baseline levels due to increased levels of competition between low cost and legacy carriers. In the international market, increased competition from growing liberalization puts downwar d pressure on fares. In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an average of 1.6 percent annually, reaching 16.87 cents by 2023 (16.54 cents domestically and 17.50 cents internationally). This scenario reflects higher general inflation and higher e nergy prices than in the baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in order to cover the higher costs of fuel, labor, and capital.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

83Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTHVariable Scenario 2013E 2014 2015 2019 2023 2013-14 2014-15 2014-19 2014-23EconomicAssumptionsReal Gross Domestic Product Pessimistic 15,661 15,876 16,095 17,657 19,187 1.4% 1.4% 2.1% 2.1%(BIL 09$) Baseline 15,639 16,002 16,516 18,605 20,442 2.3% 3.2% 3.1% 2.8%Optimistic 15,661 16,267 16,981 19,506 21,677 3.9% 4.4% 3.7% 3.2%Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic 100.7 95.4 90.6 114.1 122.4 -5.3% -5.0% 3.6% 2.8%Average - $ Per Barrel Baseline 100.8 98.1 92.5 102.6 113.3 -2.6% -5.7% 0.9% 1.6%Optimistic 100.8 105.9 98.4 90.5 98.4 5.1% -7.1% -3.1% -0.8%Consumer Price Index Pessimistic 2.32 2.34 2.38 2.64 2.93 0.8% 1.5% 2.4% 2.5%All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0 Baseline 2.32 2.36 2.39 2.58 2.79 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9%Optimistic 2.32 2.37 2.42 2.57 2.76 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.7%Civilian Unemployment Rate Pessimistic 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.0 7.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0(%) Baseline 7.6 7.3 6.7 5.3 5.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2Optimistic 7.6 6.2 4.8 3.7 4.2 -1.4 -1.4 -0.5 -0.2Sources: Baseline -IHS Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, September 2013; Optimistic and Pessimistic - IHS Global Insight, U.S. Economic Outlook, January 2014TABLE A-1FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSFISCAL YEARS 2013-2023FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

84Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTHVariable Scenario 2013E 2014 2015 2019 2023 2013-14 2014-15 2014-19 2014-23SystemAviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 1,002.8 1,014.6 1,034.2 1,122.8 1,230.7 1.2% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2%(BIL) Baseline 1,002.8 1,017.8 1,053.4 1,199.6 1,323.7 1.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0%Optimistic 1,002.8 1,041.5 1,098.3 1,275.8 1,402.2 3.9% 5.5% 4.1% 3.4%Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 834.1 845.6 863.3 941.1 1,033.9 1.4% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3%(BIL) Baseline 834.1 846.1 877.0 1,002.6 1,108.3 1.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.0%Optimistic 834.1 864.7 913.3 1,065.3 1,173.1 3.7% 5.6% 4.3% 3.4%Enplanements Pessimistic 739.3 743.7 756.3 806.8 868.1 0.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7%(MIL) Baseline 739.3 745.5 771.1 863.8 929.6 0.8% 3.4% 3.0% 2.5%Optimistic 739.3 761.1 806.2 925.2 989.9 2.9% 5.9% 4.0% 3.0%Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 7,016.3 7,015.5 7,113.7 7,570.8 8,148.3 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7%(MIL) Baseline 7,016.3 7,049.3 7,265.8 8,120.8 8,773.2 0.5% 3.1% 2.9% 2.5%Optimistic 7,016.3 7,197.8 7,580.7 8,662.1 9,306.6 2.6% 5.3% 3.8% 2.9%Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 9,168.2 9,068.4 9,147.9 9,533.8 9,976.9 -1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1%(000s) Baseline 9,168.2 9,107.5 9,345.1 10,185.7 10,544.3 -0.7% 2.6% 2.3% 1.6%Optimistic 9,168.2 9,320.0 9,804.3 10,907.3 11,327.4 1.7% 5.2% 3.2% 2.2%Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 14.27 14.56 14.74 15.89 16.87 2.0% 1.2% 1.8% 1.6%(cents) Baseline 14.27 14.64 14.81 15.72 16.58 2.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4%Optimistic 14.27 14.71 14.89 15.53 16.34 3.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2%TABLE A-2FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITYFISCAL YEARS 2013-2023FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

85Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTHVariable Scenario 2013E 2014 2015 2019 2023 2013-14 2014-15 2014-19 2014-23DomesticAviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 699.6 704.7 712.3 754.6 813.2 0.7% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6%(BIL) Baseline 699.6 706.5 727.2 808.7 867.6 1.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3%Optimistic 699.6 721.3 762.3 868.8 923.2 3.1% 5.7% 3.8% 2.8%Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 583.9 587.5 595.2 634.4 686.0 0.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7%(BIL) Baseline 583.9 589.0 607.6 679.9 731.9 0.9% 3.2% 2.9% 2.4%Optimistic 583.9 601.4 636.9 730.4 778.8 3.0% 5.9% 4.0% 2.9%Enplanements Pessimistic 654.3 656.4 666.0 705.0 754.4 0.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6%(MIL) Baseline 654.3 658.1 679.8 755.1 804.0 0.6% 3.3% 2.8% 2.3%Optimistic 654.3 671.9 712.7 811.8 856.4 2.7% 6.1% 3.9% 2.7%Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 5,599.8 5,580.4 5,628.2 5,895.4 6,274.7 -0.3% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3%(MIL) Baseline 5,599.8 5,594.8 5,745.1 6,313.5 6,685.6 -0.1% 2.7% 2.4% 2.0%Optimistic 5,599.8 5,714.0 6,026.1 6,792.6 7,127.7 2.0% 5.5% 3.5% 2.5%Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 8,554.4 8,451.7 8,514.1 8,838.7 9,219.3 -1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0%(000s) Baseline 8,554.4 8,479.7 8,692.7 9,426.6 9,795.4 -0.9% 2.5% 2.1% 1.6%Optimistic 8,554.4 8,681.9 9,137.7 10,115.3 10,418.8 1.5% 5.3% 3.1% 2.0%Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 14.08 14.47 14.67 15.78 16.54 2.8% 1.4% 1.7% 1.5%(cents) Baseline 14.08 14.50 14.69 15.64 16.50 3.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4%Optimistic 14.08 14.61 14.77 15.44 16.27 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2%TABLE A-3FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITYFISCAL YEARS 2013-2023FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

86Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTHVariable Scenario 2013E 2014 2015 2019 2023 2013-14 2014-15 2014-19 2014-23InternationalAviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 303.1309.9321.9368.2417.52.2% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4%(BIL) Baseline 303.1311.3326.2390.9456.12.7% 4.8% 4.7% 4.3%Optimistic 303.1320.1336.0406.9479.05.6% 4.9% 4.9% 4.6%Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 250.3258.1268.1306.8347.93.1% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4%(BIL) Baseline 250.3257.2269.4322.7376.42.8% 4.8% 4.6% 4.3%Optimistic 250.3263.3276.4334.9394.35.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6%Enplanements Pessimistic 85.187.390.3101.8113.72.6% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0%(MIL) Baseline 85.187.591.4108.6125.62.8% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%Optimistic 85.189.293.5113.5133.54.8% 4.8% 4.9% 4.6%Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 1,416.51,435.11,485.51,675.41,873.81.3% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0%(MIL) Baseline 1,416.51,454.51,520.71,807.42,087.62.7% 4.6% 4.4% 4.1%Optimistic 1,416.51,483.91,554.61,869.52,178.94.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4%Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 613.7616.7633.8695.0757.50.5% 2.8% 2.4% 2.3%(000s) Baseline 613.7627.8652.3759.1857.62.3% 3.9% 3.9% 3.5%Optimistic 613.7638.1666.6792.0908.74.0% 4.5% 4.4% 4.0%Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 14.6914.7814.9016.1217.500.6% 0.8% 1.8% 1.9%(cents) Baseline 14.6914.9415.0815.8816.731.7% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3%Optimistic 14.6914.9415.1515.7216.481.7% 1.4% 1.0% 1.1%*Includes mainline and regional carriers.TABLE A-4FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*FISCAL YEARS 2013-2023FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

87 

# APPENDIX B: FAA FORECAST ACCURACY

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of uncer tainty incorporated in them. They involve not only statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment and reliance on industry knowledge and the foreca ster’s experience to incor porate industry trends not yet

reflected in recent results. The FAA’s annual Aerospace Foreca st is no exception. Given the

volatile nature of the U. S. airline industry, it is not surpri sing that each year’s forecast would contain a certain degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA forecast ers have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predi ctable pattern of result s. Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the m odels would then be able to adjus t for the predictable variance

from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the variance from historical results for five key forecast metrics during the FY 2005-2013 forecast peri od. Although this period has experienced industry upheaval, the FAA’s forecast methodology remained consistent during this time. For this reason, inclusion of prior periods in an analysis of forecast variance might lead to inconclusive or inaccurate implications about the accuracy of FAA’s current forecast methodology.

The table below contains the m ean absolute percent errors for t he projected values versus the

actual results for U.S. carriers’ domestic operations. Each metr ic has five values showing the relative forecast variance by the number of y ears in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the “3 Years” column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute percent error was 8.2 percent for ASM forecast s prepared 3 years in advance. For the period under examination, preparation of the forecasts for FY 2005 through FY 2013 occurred in FY
2004, FY 2005, FY 2006, FY 2007, FY 2008, FY 2009, FY 2010, FY 2011, and FY 2012 respectively. 16

16 It should be noted that the first forecasted year for each respective fiscal year is that very same year. Therefore, FY 2003’s first forecasted year is FY 2003, and the third forecasted year is FY 2005

.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

88 

## U.S. AIR CARRIERS

DOMESTIC SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITY

FORECAST EVALUATION

Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2005 - FY 2013)

Forecast (Forecast Variance from Actual)

Variable Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years

ASMs 0.8% 4.4% 8.2% 11.3% 17.3%

RPMs 1.0% 3.5% 6.6% 8.6% 12.6%

Passenger Enplanements 0.9% 3.2% 6.5% 8.4% 12.7%

Mainline Yield 3.3% 5. 1% 7.4% 8.6% 10.4%

IFR Aircraft Handled* 2.4% 6.3% 9.6% 12.6% 18.0%

*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial



### Presenting forecast variances from actual data in such a manner simplif ies a review of longerterm trends. Typically, one would expect the vari ances to decrease as the forecast year is closer to the year the forecast is prepared. Presenting forecast va riances in this way allows an examination of changes in the relative variances by time horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur.

Examination of the forecast vari ances reveals several items. First, all the metrics examined show declining variances as the forecast time horizon decreases, as expected. The largest

variances were found in the forecasts of ASM s and IFR Aircraft Handled, the variables most directly affected by exogenous ev ents. Second, the ASM forecast variance being larger than

the RPM forecast variance indicates a consistent underestimation of load factors, one of the key elements in converting passenger demand into aviation activi ty. All other things being equal, large variances in forecasts of load fact or will lead to large variances in the long-term forecasts of aviation activity, as can been seen in the variances of th e IFR aircraft handled

forecasts.

Furthermore, ASMs and aircraft handled are becoming increasingly difficult to forecast beyond a relatively short time horizon, as carriers o ften react to changing market conditions. The relatively large variances in these forecast s beyond two years suggest t hat carriers have been permanently removing capacity by reducing flights and by changing the mix of aircraft to satisfy demand. In the short term, such capacity reductions can be identif ied by using advance schedule information. However, the FAA’s longer-t erm forecasts rely on anticipated aircraft

deliveries and retirements as well as historic relationships between economic activity and capacity deployed. Given the vola tile nature of many of the fact ors that may influence longer term ASM and aircraft handled forecasts, a simple r approach to projecting ASMs, such as RPMs divided by load factors, may improve t he long run accuracy of the ASM and aircraft

handled forecasts.FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

89 

# APPENDIX C: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the di rection of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. The following individuals were responsib le for individual subject areas:

Economic Environment Roger D. Schaufele, Jr . (202) 267-3306

Commercial Air Carriers Passengers Roger D. Schauf ele, Jr. (202) 267-3306 Katherine Lizotte (202) 267-3302

Cargo Nick Miller (202) 267-3309

General Aviation

Forecasts H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070 Survey Data H. A nna Barlett (202) 267-4070

FAA Workload Measures Forecasts Roger D. Sc haufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

Data Forecasts and Pe rformance Analysis Division, APO-100

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641

Meri deth Tracey (202) 385-4600

Commercial Space John Sloan, Commercial Space Transportation, AST-100 (202) 267-7989

Text and Table Preparation Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division Staff

APO Websites

Forecasts/Statistical Publications http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics APO Data System http://aspm.faa.gov

Email APO staff first name.last name@faa.govFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

90 

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91 

# APPENDIX D: FORECAST TABLESFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

92TABLE 1ECONOMIC FISCAL YEAR 2013 FISCAL YEAR 2014 FISCAL YEAR 2015VARIABLE 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.Real GDP(Billions of 2009$) 15,539.6 15,583.9 15,681.0 15,753.2 15,840.5 15,942.4 16,051.9 16,174.3 16,309.9 16,447.5 16,582.8 16,721.7Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 1.1% 2.5% 1.9% 2.2% 2.6% 2.8% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4%Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average(Dollars) 97.29 101.15 99.84 104.87 102.59 98.93 96.31 94.64 93.45 92.72 91.97 92.02Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 16.9% -5.1% 21.7% -8.4% -13.5% -10.2% -6.8% -4.9% -3.1% -3.2% 0.2%Consumer Price Index(1982-84 equals 100) 231.3 232.1 232.1 233.6 234.3 235.2 236.2 237.0 237.9 238.9 239.9 241.0Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 1.4% 0.0% 2.7% 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.9%Source: IHS Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, Fourth Quarter 2013U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTSFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

93TABLE 2GROSS DISPOSABLE CONSUMER PRICE REFINERS' ACQUISITION COSTFISCAL DOMESTIC PRODUCT PERSONAL INCOME INDEX AVERAGEYEAR (Billions 2009$) (Billions 2009$) (1982-84=100) (Dollars per barrel)Historical2000 12,477.1 8,803.8 170.74 26.702006 14,528.6 10,491.6 200.58 59.952007 14,807.4 10,789.6 205.31 60.622008 14,939.0 10,958.2 214.41 101.522009 14,426.5 10,954.9 213.78 54.682010 14,678.8 10,991.4 217.42 74.612011 14,977.5 11,286.3 223.10 96.002012 15,396.4 11,448.8 228.53 102.812013E 15,639.4 11,620.5 232.28 100.79Forecast2014 16,002.3 11,890.5 235.68 98.122015 16,515.5 12,298.5 239.42 92.542016 17,042.8 12,691.4 243.88 92.612017 17,564.5 13,129.6 248.55 95.792018 18,084.2 13,553.7 253.26 99.152019 18,605.1 13,928.5 258.03 102.612020 19,091.1 14,271.8 263.02 105.822021 19,540.5 14,573.8 268.23 108.722022 19,984.2 14,883.2 273.39 110.972023 20,442.3 15,214.5 278.52 113.272024 20,935.7 15,589.5 283.92 115.602025 21,436.3 15,971.5 289.45 117.702026 21,943.8 16,350.8 295.13 119.842027 22,462.2 16,730.3 301.18 122.012028 22,986.8 17,139.8 307.10 124.212029 23,535.3 17,545.7 313.21 126.492030 24,096.2 17,954.0 319.49 128.812031 24,662.8 18,349.6 326.08 131.232032 25,241.9 18,754.1 332.90 133.692033 25,848.0 19,171.3 339.95 136.182034 26,469.3 19,588.7 347.44 138.71Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.8% 2.2% 2.4% 10.8%2013-14 2.3% 2.3% 1.5% -2.7%2013-23 2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 1.2%2013-34 2.5% 2.5% 1.9% 1.5%Source: IHS Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, Fourth Quarter 2013U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTSFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

94TABLE 3GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)CALENDAR YEAR CANADAEUROPE / AFRICA/MIDDLE EASTLATIN AMERICA /CARIBBEAN / MEXICOJAPAN / PACIFICBASIN / CHINA /OTHER ASIA /AUSTRALIA / NEWZEALAND WORLDHistorical2000 1,027.2 16,088.7 2,491.0 9,108.0 40,273.82006 1,195.1 19,009.8 2,981.4 11,716.9 48,347.82007 1,219.1 19,755.0 3,141.9 12,472.6 50,273.92008 1,233.4 20,004.7 3,260.7 12,846.5 50,990.82009 1,199.9 19,265.9 3,199.5 12,998.9 49,927.32010 1,240.4 19,804.6 3,379.6 13,938.9 51,959.32011 1,271.8 20,262.7 3,521.3 14,514.8 53,417.32012 1,293.5 20,408.2 3,624.1 15,128.7 54,686.22013E 1,315.0 20,565.0 3,721.3 15,788.6 55,845.9Forecast2014 1,347.0 20,956.7 3,854.3 16,528.6 57,515.22015 1,383.8 21,454.6 4,012.2 17,351.8 59,520.32016 1,421.1 22,016.6 4,181.0 18,184.9 61,601.52017 1,457.9 22,616.6 4,350.9 19,066.2 63,770.72018 1,495.0 23,196.6 4,528.6 19,947.1 65,920.62019 1,532.5 23,779.9 4,714.2 20,881.4 68,139.82020 1,569.3 24,379.9 4,903.4 21,854.5 70,373.12021 1,606.3 24,995.8 5,103.1 22,877.0 72,658.62022 1,642.7 25,608.6 5,306.3 23,921.9 74,968.32023 1,679.7 26,229.8 5,515.2 24,980.5 77,319.12024 1,717.9 26,860.8 5,733.3 26,067.0 79,751.02025 1,756.8 27,496.2 5,959.3 27,173.9 82,225.32026 1,796.2 28,135.6 6,193.7 28,315.4 84,758.82027 1,836.1 28,788.2 6,438.6 29,498.7 87,364.42028 1,877.3 29,452.3 6,690.0 30,708.6 90,025.32029 1,919.2 30,126.9 6,952.1 31,940.8 92,756.62030 1,962.1 30,814.3 7,222.6 33,191.2 95,542.02031 2,007.0 31,514.5 7,502.6 34,461.3 98,379.02032 2,052.2 32,221.4 7,791.2 35,761.4 101,269.52033 2,097.2 32,940.5 8,091.1 37,107.9 104,249.52034 2,143.7 33,673.2 8,400.3 38,483.8 107,301.8Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.9% 1.9% 3.1% 4.3% 2.5%2013-14 2.4% 1.9% 3.6% 4.7% 3.0%2013-23 2.5% 2.5% 4.0% 4.7% 3.3%2013-34 2.4% 2.4% 4.0% 4.3% 3.2%Source: IHS Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 12 Sept 2013INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGIONFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

95TABLE 4GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)NORTHCALENDAR AMERICA UNITEDYEAR (NAFTA) EUROZONE KINGDOM JAPAN CHINAHistorical2000 13,372.9 9,390.5 2,005.8 4,309.5 1,430.32006 15,532.4 10,458.4 2,385.3 4,649.7 2,567.32007 15,826.1 10,770.3 2,467.1 4,750.4 2,931.92008 15,811.7 10,797.7 2,448.1 4,699.6 3,213.32009 15,340.3 10,324.0 2,321.5 4,439.9 3,509.32010 15,759.6 10,521.8 2,360.0 4,647.4 3,876.12011 16,078.0 10,694.5 2,386.4 4,621.8 4,236.62012 16,522.3 10,632.1 2,390.5 4,712.0 4,564.62013E 16,787.9 10,580.1 2,425.2 4,803.6 4,917.6Forecast2014 17,234.5 10,658.9 2,484.3 4,888.3 5,307.72015 17,808.1 10,791.6 2,546.7 4,951.3 5,745.22016 18,375.8 10,956.4 2,613.1 4,997.9 6,192.82017 18,941.8 11,147.3 2,676.3 5,076.8 6,645.82018 19,502.6 11,328.8 2,738.1 5,132.0 7,106.22019 20,069.8 11,509.7 2,799.7 5,181.3 7,611.62020 20,592.0 11,698.4 2,863.3 5,229.9 8,136.52021 21,093.6 11,894.5 2,927.7 5,278.1 8,691.32022 21,596.6 12,084.3 2,991.2 5,325.9 9,257.52023 22,113.5 12,276.2 3,055.3 5,373.4 9,827.92024 22,666.3 12,471.5 3,119.4 5,420.7 10,405.82025 23,230.9 12,664.7 3,184.6 5,468.3 11,014.12026 23,809.0 12,860.0 3,250.5 5,515.7 11,647.42027 24,395.0 13,056.9 3,318.5 5,562.1 12,311.12028 24,991.5 13,256.3 3,386.8 5,607.5 12,990.52029 25,618.6 13,455.7 3,456.9 5,651.7 13,683.42030 26,261.8 13,656.4 3,529.5 5,694.2 14,387.72031 26,916.3 13,861.3 3,604.0 5,735.3 15,101.22032 27,579.8 14,065.8 3,679.0 5,775.2 15,830.92033 28,266.3 14,269.9 3,754.4 5,813.9 16,592.52034 28,973.6 14,476.0 3,830.2 5,851.0 17,367.4Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.8% 0.9% 1.5% 0.8% 10.0%2013-14 2.7% 0.7% 2.4% 1.8% 7.9%2013-23 2.8% 1.5% 2.3% 1.1% 7.2%2013-34 2.6% 1.5% 2.2% 0.9% 6.2%Source: IHS Global Insight, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 12 September 2013INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS –SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIESFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

96FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMHistorical2000 641.2 56.4 697.6 512.8 181.8 694.62006 668.4 71.6 740.0 582.4 208.5 790.92007 690.1 75.3 765.3 600.5 221.2 821.72008 680.7 78.3 759.1 594.6 233.8 828.52009 630.8 73.6 704.4 548.6 221.3 769.92010 635.2 77.4 712.6 555.8 231.0 786.82011 650.1 81.0 731.1 572.2 242.5 814.62012 653.8 82.9 736.7 577.7 244.6 822.22013E 654.3 85.1 739.3 583.9 250.3 834.1Forecast2014 658.1 87.5 745.5 589.0 257.2 846.12015 679.8 91.4 771.1 607.6 269.4 877.02016 700.0 95.4 795.4 625.9 282.1 908.02017 719.1 99.8 818.9 644.0 295.5 939.52018 738.2 104.1 842.4 662.9 308.9 971.82019 755.1 108.6 863.7 679.9 322.7 1,002.62020 769.6 112.9 882.5 694.9 336.0 1,030.82021 781.3 117.0 898.4 707.4 349.2 1,056.62022 792.3 121.2 913.5 719.3 362.6 1,081.92023 804.0 125.6 929.6 731.9 376.4 1,108.32024 817.9 130.4 948.2 746.6 391.1 1,137.72025 832.3 135.2 967.5 761.9 406.2 1,168.02026 846.9 140.3 987.1 777.3 421.7 1,199.02027 861.1 145.4 1,006.5 792.4 437.7 1,230.12028 876.0 150.8 1,026.7 808.4 454.1 1,262.52029 890.5 156.4 1,046.9 824.0 471.2 1,295.22030 905.0 162.3 1,067.3 839.8 488.9 1,328.72031 919.1 168.3 1,087.3 855.1 507.0 1,362.12032 933.2 174.4 1,107.7 870.6 525.6 1,396.12033 947.5 180.9 1,128.4 886.2 544.8 1,431.12034 961.9 187.6 1,149.5 902.1 564.8 1,466.9Avg Annual Growth2000-13 0.2% 3.2% 0.4% 1.0% 2.5% 1.4%2013-14 0.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.9% 2.8% 1.4%2013-23 2.1% 4.0% 2.3% 2.3% 4.2% 2.9%2013-34 1.9% 3.8% 2.1% 2.1% 4.0% 2.7%*Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.TABLE 5U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFICFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

97DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMFISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOADYEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTORHistorical2000 726.6 512.8 70.6 239.3 181.8 76.0 965.9 694.6 71.92006 740.2 582.4 78.7 261.3 208.5 79.8 1,001.5 790.9 79.02007 752.5 600.5 79.8 275.9 221.2 80.2 1,028.4 821.7 79.92008 749.6 594.6 79.3 292.7 233.8 79.9 1,042.4 828.5 79.52009 682.5 548.6 80.4 283.3 221.3 78.1 965.8 769.9 79.72010 680.0 555.8 81.7 281.3 231.0 82.1 961.3 786.8 81.82011 693.5 572.2 82.5 300.4 242.5 80.7 993.9 814.6 82.02012 694.4 577.7 83.2 300.5 244.6 81.4 994.9 822.2 82.62013E 699.6 583.9 83.5 303.1 250.3 82.6 1,002.8 834.1 83.2Forecast2014 706.5 589.0 83.4 311.3 257.2 82.6 1,017.8 846.1 83.12015 727.2 607.6 83.6 326.2 269.4 82.6 1,053.4 877.0 83.32016 747.7 625.9 83.7 341.6 282.1 82.6 1,089.3 908.0 83.42017 768.0 644.0 83.9 357.9 295.5 82.6 1,125.9 939.5 83.42018 789.4 662.9 84.0 374.1 308.9 82.6 1,163.6 971.8 83.52019 808.7 679.9 84.1 390.9 322.7 82.5 1,199.6 1,002.6 83.62020 825.6 694.9 84.2 407.0 336.0 82.5 1,232.7 1,030.8 83.62021 839.8 707.4 84.2 423.1 349.2 82.5 1,262.9 1,056.6 83.72022 853.2 719.3 84.3 439.3 362.6 82.5 1,292.5 1,081.9 83.72023 867.6 731.9 84.4 456.1 376.4 82.5 1,323.7 1,108.3 83.72024 884.4 746.6 84.4 473.9 391.1 82.5 1,358.4 1,137.7 83.82025 902.0 761.9 84.5 492.2 406.2 82.5 1,394.2 1,168.0 83.82026 919.8 777.3 84.5 511.1 421.7 82.5 1,430.9 1,199.0 83.82027 937.3 792.4 84.5 530.5 437.7 82.5 1,467.8 1,230.1 83.82028 955.7 808.4 84.6 550.5 454.1 82.5 1,506.2 1,262.5 83.82029 973.8 824.0 84.6 571.3 471.2 82.5 1,545.2 1,295.2 83.82030 992.1 839.8 84.6 592.8 488.9 82.5 1,585.0 1,328.7 83.82031 1,009.8 855.1 84.7 614.9 507.0 82.5 1,624.7 1,362.1 83.82032 1,027.9 870.6 84.7 637.4 525.6 82.5 1,665.3 1,396.1 83.82033 1,046.1 886.2 84.7 660.8 544.8 82.4 1,706.9 1,431.1 83.82034 1,064.5 902.1 84.7 685.1 564.8 82.4 1,749.6 1,466.9 83.8Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -0.3% 1.0% 1.8% 2.5% 0.3% 1.4%2013-14 1.0% 0.9% 2.7% 2.8% 1.5% 1.4%2013-23 2.2% 2.3% 4.2% 4.2% 2.8% 2.9%2013-34 2.0% 2.1% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7% 2.7%*Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.TABLE 6U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORSFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

98REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTSLATIN TOTAL LATIN TOTALFISCAL ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONALYEAR (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)Historical200020.9 24.3 11.256.487.1 36.3 58.4 181.8200622.5 35.2 13.971.693.9 53.6 61.1 208.5200724.1 37.6 13.675.3102.2 57.7 61.4 221.2200826.0 39.1 13.278.3112.7 60.7 60.4 233.8200924.7 36.8 12.073.6108.9 57.7 54.7 221.3201024.5 40.0 12.977.4108.6 63.1 59.2 231.0201125.3 42.2 13.581.0111.7 67.2 63.6 242.5201224.8 44.1 14.082.9107.9 70.3 66.4 244.62013E24.9 45.8 14.485.1107.0 74.6 68.6 250.3Forecast201425.6 47.6 14.287.5110.6 78.0 68.6 257.2201526.4 49.9 15.091.4114.6 82.6 72.3 269.4201627.2 52.5 15.795.4118.8 87.4 75.9 282.1201728.1 55.1 16.599.8123.2 92.5 79.8 295.5201829.0 57.9 17.3104.1127.6 97.6 83.6 308.9201929.8 60.7 18.1108.6132.2 103.0 87.5 322.7202030.7 63.3 18.9112.9136.5 108.0 91.4 336.0202131.5 65.8 19.7117.0140.9 112.8 95.4 349.2202232.3 68.4 20.5121.2145.3 117.8 99.5 362.6202333.1 71.1 21.3125.6149.8 123.0 103.6 376.4202434.0 74.1 22.2130.4154.6 128.6 107.9 391.1202534.9 77.2 23.1135.2159.5 134.4 112.3 406.2202635.8 80.5 24.0140.3164.4 140.5 116.8 421.7202736.7 83.8 24.9145.4169.5 146.7 121.4 437.7202837.7 87.3 25.8150.8174.7 153.2 126.2 454.1202938.6 91.0 26.8156.4180.1 160.1 131.0 471.2203039.6 94.8 27.8162.3185.7 167.3 136.0 488.9203140.6 98.8 28.8168.3191.4 174.6 141.0 507.0203241.7 103.0 29.8174.4197.2 182.3 146.1 525.6203342.7 107.3 30.9180.9203.2 190.3 151.4 544.8203443.8 111.9 31.9187.6209.3 198.6 156.8 564.8Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.3% 5.0% 2.0% 3.2% 1.6% 5.7% 1.3% 2.5%2013-14 3.1% 3.8% -0.9% 2.8% 3.4% 4.5% -0.1% 2.8%2013-23 2.9% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.4% 5.1% 4.2% 4.2%2013-34 2.7% 4.3% 3.9% 3.8% 3.2% 4.8% 4.0% 4.0%* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.TABLE 7U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFICREVENUE PASSENGER MILESFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

99TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)CALENDARU.S./CANADAYEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TRANSBORDER TOTALHistorical2000 53.0 40.8 26.2 20.5 140.52006 49.8 47.1 26.1 21.0 96.92007 53.3 48.6 26.3 21.5 101.12008 57.1 49.8 25.8 21.7 104.62009 55.0 48.0 24.4 20.2 99.62010 55.9 53.1 26.7 21.8 157.52011 58.1 57.2 27.8 22.5 165.62012 60.8 61.2 30.8 23.1 175.92013E 62.7 64.6 32.3 24.0 183.6Forecast2014 64.0 67.5 34.5 24.5 190.42015 67.5 70.8 36.7 25.5 200.52016 70.9 74.3 38.6 26.4 210.12017 74.2 77.8 40.5 27.3 219.82018 77.4 81.5 42.4 28.1 229.42019 80.7 85.4 44.4 29.0 239.52020 84.0 89.4 46.4 30.0 249.92021 87.5 93.7 48.5 30.9 260.52022 91.0 98.1 50.6 31.9 271.62023 94.6 102.7 52.7 32.9 282.92024 98.3 107.5 54.8 34.0 294.62025 102.1 112.5 57.0 35.1 306.72026 106.0 117.7 59.2 36.2 319.12027 110.0 123.1 61.5 37.3 331.92028 114.1 128.7 63.8 38.5 345.12029 118.3 134.6 66.1 39.7 358.72030 122.8 140.8 68.5 41.0 373.02031 127.4 147.3 70.9 42.3 387.82032 132.0 153.9 73.3 43.6 402.92033 136.8 160.9 75.7 45.0 418.52034 141.8 168.2 78.2 46.5 434.8Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.3% 3.6% 1.6% 1.2% 2.1%2013-14 1.9% 4.5% 6.7% 2.2% 3.7%2013-23 4.2% 4.7% 5.0% 3.2% 4.4%2013-34 4.0% 4.7% 4.3% 3.2% 4.2%Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also received from Transport Canada.TABLE 8U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERSTOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATESFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

100FISCAL DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEMYEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)Historical2000 129.3 230.6 145.0 799.8 3,223.2 995.72006 120.1 215.0 135.7 871.4 2,911.5 1,068.82007 120.4 216.1 136.6 870.2 2,939.0 1,073.72008 120.8 218.6 138.2 873.5 2,985.2 1,091.42009 121.8 219.0 140.0 869.7 3,008.1 1,093.12010 121.8 216.4 139.7 875.0 2,983.6 1,104.02011 122.5 216.8 141.1 880.1 2,992.7 1,114.22012 123.4 213.9 141.5 883.6 2,949.6 1,116.12013E 124.9 214.0 142.9 892.4 2,942.2 1,128.2Forecast2014 126.3 214.1 144.4 895.0 2,940.3 1,134.92015 126.6 214.5 145.0 893.8 2,949.0 1,137.32016 126.9 214.9 145.6 894.2 2,955.6 1,141.52017 127.3 215.4 146.3 895.5 2,961.7 1,147.32018 127.7 215.8 147.0 897.9 2,966.3 1,153.62019 128.1 216.3 147.7 900.4 2,970.4 1,160.82020 128.5 216.8 148.5 902.9 2,976.4 1,168.12021 128.9 217.4 149.3 905.4 2,983.7 1,176.12022 129.3 217.9 150.1 907.9 2,990.4 1,184.32023 129.8 218.5 150.9 910.4 2,996.2 1,192.22024 130.2 219.0 151.7 912.8 3,000.2 1,199.82025 130.6 219.5 152.4 915.3 3,003.6 1,207.22026 131.1 220.0 153.2 917.8 3,006.5 1,214.62027 131.5 220.5 153.9 920.3 3,009.2 1,222.22028 131.9 221.0 154.7 922.9 3,011.4 1,229.62029 132.4 221.4 155.5 925.3 3,012.5 1,237.22030 132.8 221.9 156.3 927.9 3,012.9 1,244.92031 133.2 222.3 157.0 930.4 3,013.0 1,252.72032 133.7 222.8 157.8 932.9 3,012.8 1,260.42033 134.1 223.2 158.6 935.4 3,011.9 1,268.22034 134.6 223.6 159.4 937.9 3,010.4 1,276.1*Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.TABLE 9AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILEAVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTHU.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTHFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

101REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILESFISCAL (Millions) (Billions)YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMHistorical2000 561.5 53.3 614.8 490.0 181.0 670.92006 516.2 68.1 584.4 513.9 206.8 720.72007 533.9 71.9 605.7 529.9 219.5 749.42008 521.6 74.8 596.5 521.3 231.9 753.32009 476.8 71.0 547.8 478.2 220.0 698.22010 473.6 74.7 548.3 480.7 229.6 710.42011 488.4 78.6 567.0 496.7 241.2 737.92012 494.8 79.9 574.6 503.3 242.7 746.12013E 498.8 82.2 581.0 510.9 248.4 759.3Forecast2014 500.6 84.5 585.2 514.7 255.3 770.02015 517.2 88.3 605.5 530.6 267.4 798.12016 532.6 92.3 624.9 546.4 280.0 826.52017 547.2 96.6 643.8 562.0 293.4 855.42018 561.8 100.9 662.6 578.4 306.7 885.12019 574.6 105.3 679.9 593.1 320.4 913.52020 585.7 109.5 695.1 606.1 333.7 939.72021 594.7 113.6 708.2 616.9 346.8 963.72022 603.0 117.7 720.8 627.1 360.2 987.32023 612.0 122.1 734.0 638.1 373.9 1,012.02024 622.6 126.7 749.3 650.7 388.6 1,039.32025 633.6 131.5 765.2 663.9 403.6 1,067.52026 644.8 136.5 781.3 677.3 419.1 1,096.32027 655.6 141.6 797.2 690.4 435.0 1,125.32028 667.0 146.9 813.9 704.1 451.3 1,155.42029 678.1 152.5 830.6 717.6 468.4 1,186.02030 689.2 158.3 847.5 731.3 486.0 1,217.32031 699.9 164.2 864.1 744.4 504.0 1,248.52032 710.7 170.3 881.0 757.8 522.5 1,280.32033 721.6 176.7 898.2 771.3 541.7 1,313.02034 732.5 183.3 915.9 785.0 561.6 1,346.5Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -0.9% 3.4% -0.4% 0.3% 2.5% 1.0%2013-14 0.4% 2.9% 0.7% 0.7% 2.8% 1.4%2013-23 2.1% 4.0% 2.4% 2.2% 4.2% 2.9%2013-34 1.8% 3.9% 2.2% 2.1% 4.0% 2.8%*Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.TABLE 10U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERSSCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFICFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

102DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMFISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOADYEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTORHistorical2000 688.3 490.0 71.2 238.0 181.0 76.0 926.2 670.9 72.42006 648.7 513.9 79.2 258.9 206.8 79.9 907.6 720.7 79.42007 659.0 529.9 80.4 273.4 219.5 80.3 932.4 749.4 80.42008 650.2 521.3 80.2 290.1 231.9 80.0 940.3 753.3 80.12009 587.8 478.2 81.4 281.5 220.0 78.2 869.3 698.2 80.32010 581.5 480.7 82.7 279.5 229.6 82.2 861.0 710.4 82.52011 594.4 496.7 83.6 298.6 241.2 80.8 893.0 737.9 82.62012 598.7 503.3 84.1 297.9 242.7 81.5 896.6 746.1 83.22013E 606.6 510.9 84.2 300.7 248.4 82.6 907.3 759.3 83.7Forecast2014 611.3 514.7 84.2 308.9 255.3 82.7 920.2 770.0 83.72015 628.6 530.6 84.4 323.6 267.4 82.6 952.2 798.1 83.82016 645.9 546.4 84.6 338.9 280.0 82.6 984.9 826.5 83.92017 663.1 562.0 84.8 355.2 293.4 82.6 1,018.3 855.4 84.02018 681.4 578.4 84.9 371.3 306.7 82.6 1,052.7 885.1 84.12019 697.8 593.1 85.0 388.0 320.4 82.6 1,085.8 913.5 84.12020 712.2 606.1 85.1 404.1 333.7 82.6 1,116.3 939.7 84.22021 724.2 616.9 85.2 420.1 346.8 82.6 1,144.3 963.7 84.22022 735.6 627.1 85.3 436.3 360.2 82.5 1,171.9 987.3 84.32023 747.8 638.1 85.3 453.1 373.9 82.5 1,200.8 1,012.0 84.32024 762.1 650.7 85.4 470.8 388.6 82.5 1,232.9 1,039.3 84.32025 777.1 663.9 85.4 489.1 403.6 82.5 1,266.1 1,067.5 84.32026 792.2 677.3 85.5 507.9 419.1 82.5 1,300.1 1,096.3 84.32027 807.1 690.4 85.5 527.2 435.0 82.5 1,334.4 1,125.3 84.32028 822.9 704.1 85.6 547.1 451.3 82.5 1,370.0 1,155.4 84.32029 838.2 717.6 85.6 567.9 468.4 82.5 1,406.1 1,186.0 84.32030 853.9 731.3 85.6 589.3 486.0 82.5 1,443.2 1,217.3 84.32031 868.9 744.4 85.7 611.3 504.0 82.5 1,480.2 1,248.5 84.32032 884.2 757.8 85.7 633.7 522.5 82.4 1,518.0 1,280.3 84.32033 899.7 771.3 85.7 657.1 541.7 82.4 1,556.7 1,313.0 84.32034 915.3 785.0 85.8 681.3 561.6 82.4 1,596.6 1,346.5 84.3Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -1.0% 0.3% 1.8% 2.5% -0.2% 1.0%2013-14 0.8% 0.7% 2.7% 2.8% 1.4% 1.4%2013-23 2.1% 2.2% 4.2% 4.2% 2.8% 2.9%2013-34 2.0% 2.1% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7% 2.8%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.TABLE 11U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERSSCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORSFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

103U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERSFISCALYEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTALHistorical2000 20.9 21.2 11.2 53.32006 22.5 31.7 13.9 68.12007 24.1 34.2 13.6 71.92008 26.0 35.6 13.2 74.82009 24.7 34.3 12.0 71.02010 24.5 37.2 12.9 74.62011 25.3 39.8 13.5 78.62012 24.8 41.0 14.0 79.92013E 24.9 43.0 14.4 82.2Forecast2014 25.6 44.7 14.2 84.52015 26.4 46.9 15.0 88.32016 27.2 49.4 15.7 92.32017 28.1 51.9 16.5 96.62018 29.0 54.6 17.3 100.92019 29.8 57.3 18.1 105.32020 30.7 59.9 18.9 109.52021 31.5 62.4 19.7 113.62022 32.3 64.9 20.5 117.72023 33.1 67.6 21.3 122.12024 34.0 70.5 22.2 126.72025 34.9 73.5 23.1 131.52026 35.8 76.7 24.0 136.52027 36.7 80.0 24.9 141.62028 37.7 83.4 25.8 146.92029 38.6 87.0 26.8 152.52030 39.6 90.8 27.8 158.32031 40.6 94.8 28.8 164.22032 41.7 98.8 29.8 170.32033 42.7 103.1 30.9 176.72034 43.8 107.6 31.9 183.3Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.3% 5.6% 2.0% 3.4%2013-14 3.1% 3.9% -0.9% 2.8%2013-23 2.9% 4.6% 4.0% 4.0%2013-34 2.7% 4.5% 3.9% 3.9%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.TABLE 12REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTSFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

104ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONALFISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOADYEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTORHistorical2000 109.9 87.1 79.2 51.4 35.5 69.0 76.6 58.4 76.2 238.0 181.0 76.02006 115.8 93.9 81.1 69.4 51.9 74.9 73.7 61.1 82.8 258.9 206.8 79.92007 126.6 102.2 80.7 72.7 55.9 76.9 74.1 61.4 82.9 273.4 219.5 80.32008 141.0 112.7 80.0 74.2 58.8 79.3 74.9 60.4 80.6 290.1 231.9 80.02009 138.2 108.9 78.9 73.5 56.4 76.8 69.9 54.7 78.3 281.5 220.0 78.22010 130.9 108.6 82.9 78.0 61.8 79.2 70.5 59.2 84.1 279.5 229.6 82.22011 138.3 111.7 80.7 82.5 65.9 79.9 77.8 63.6 81.8 298.6 241.2 80.82012 132.3 107.9 81.5 84.7 68.5 80.9 81.0 66.4 82.0 297.9 242.7 81.52013E 128.4 107.0 83.3 89.7 72.8 81.1 82.6 68.6 83.1 300.7 248.4 82.6Forecast2014 130.9 110.6 84.5 94.5 76.1 80.5 83.4 68.6 82.2 308.9 255.3 82.72015 135.6 114.6 84.5 100.1 80.6 80.5 87.9 72.3 82.2 323.6 267.4 82.62016 140.6 118.8 84.5 106.0 85.4 80.5 92.3 75.9 82.2 338.9 280.0 82.62017 145.8 123.2 84.5 112.2 90.4 80.5 97.1 79.8 82.2 355.2 293.4 82.62018 151.0 127.6 84.5 118.6 95.5 80.5 101.7 83.6 82.2 371.3 306.7 82.62019 156.4 132.2 84.5 125.1 100.7 80.5 106.5 87.5 82.2 388.0 320.4 82.62020 161.6 136.5 84.5 131.3 105.7 80.5 111.3 91.4 82.2 404.1 333.7 82.62021 166.8 140.9 84.5 137.2 110.5 80.5 116.1 95.4 82.2 420.1 346.8 82.62022 172.0 145.3 84.5 143.3 115.4 80.5 121.0 99.5 82.2 436.3 360.2 82.52023 177.3 149.8 84.5 149.7 120.5 80.5 126.1 103.6 82.2 453.1 373.9 82.52024 183.0 154.6 84.5 156.6 126.1 80.5 131.3 107.9 82.2 470.8 388.6 82.52025 188.7 159.5 84.5 163.8 131.8 80.5 136.6 112.3 82.2 489.1 403.6 82.52026 194.6 164.4 84.5 171.2 137.8 80.5 142.1 116.8 82.2 507.9 419.1 82.52027 200.6 169.5 84.5 178.9 144.0 80.5 147.7 121.4 82.2 527.2 435.0 82.52028 206.8 174.7 84.5 186.8 150.4 80.5 153.5 126.2 82.2 547.1 451.3 82.52029 213.2 180.1 84.5 195.3 157.2 80.5 159.4 131.0 82.2 567.9 468.4 82.52030 219.8 185.7 84.5 204.2 164.3 80.5 165.4 136.0 82.2 589.3 486.0 82.52031 226.5 191.4 84.5 213.3 171.7 80.5 171.5 141.0 82.2 611.3 504.0 82.52032 233.4 197.2 84.5 222.6 179.2 80.5 177.7 146.1 82.2 633.7 522.5 82.42033 240.4 203.2 84.5 232.5 187.2 80.5 184.2 151.4 82.2 657.1 541.7 82.42034 247.7 209.3 84.5 242.8 195.5 80.5 190.8 156.8 82.2 681.3 561.6 82.4Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.2% 1.6% 4.4% 5.7% 0.6% 1.3% 1.8% 2.5%2013-14 2.0% 3.4% 5.3% 4.6% 1.0% -0.1% 2.7% 2.8%2013-23 3.3% 3.4% 5.2% 5.2% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%2013-34 3.2% 3.2% 4.9% 4.8% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.TABLE 13U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERSSCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORSBY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONSFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

105FISCAL DOMESTIC ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL SYSTEMYEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile)Historical2000 148.8 233.7 179.5 307.8 236.6 164.52006 150.5 229.4 175.2 274.4 221.4 165.72007 150.6 229.2 176.2 279.6 222.3 166.32008 150.3 229.2 177.3 292.3 224.9 167.52009 151.2 230.0 175.8 291.3 223.7 168.92010 151.9 231.7 171.7 287.2 220.9 169.12011 152.3 230.5 173.2 282.9 221.0 170.02012 152.7 230.4 171.8 278.3 219.4 169.92013E 153.9 233.3 171.8 276.2 219.2 170.8Forecast2014 155.2 233.8 172.3 276.9 219.1 172.02015 155.5 234.3 172.8 277.7 219.5 172.62016 155.8 234.8 173.3 278.4 219.8 173.12017 156.1 235.3 173.8 279.2 220.1 173.72018 156.4 235.8 174.3 279.9 220.5 174.22019 156.7 236.3 174.8 280.7 220.8 174.82020 157.0 236.8 175.3 281.4 221.2 175.42021 157.3 237.3 175.8 282.2 221.7 176.12022 157.6 237.8 176.3 282.9 222.2 176.72023 157.9 238.3 176.8 283.7 222.6 177.42024 158.2 238.8 177.3 284.4 223.0 178.02025 158.5 239.3 177.8 285.2 223.5 178.62026 158.8 239.8 178.3 285.9 223.9 179.22027 159.2 240.3 178.8 286.7 224.3 179.82028 159.5 240.8 179.3 287.4 224.7 180.42029 159.8 241.3 179.8 288.2 225.1 181.02030 160.1 241.8 180.3 288.9 225.5 181.62031 160.4 242.3 180.8 289.7 225.9 182.22032 160.7 242.8 181.3 290.4 226.2 182.82033 161.0 243.3 181.8 291.2 226.6 183.52034 161.4 243.8 182.3 291.9 227.0 184.1* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.TABLE 14INTERNATIONALU.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONSSEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILEFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

106U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONSAVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTHFISCAL DOMESTIC ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL SYSTEMYEAR (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)Historical2000 872.6 4,168.1 1,675.2 5,219.9 3,397.3 1,091.42006 995.5 4,175.4 1,637.0 4,390.4 3,037.0 1,233.42007 992.7 4,247.8 1,634.3 4,515.1 3,054.2 1,237.22008 999.4 4,332.7 1,651.6 4,583.5 3,100.1 1,262.92009 1,003.0 4,402.4 1,645.6 4,549.9 3,097.6 1,274.62010 1,015.1 4,433.0 1,660.1 4,586.6 3,072.5 1,295.62011 1,016.9 4,414.7 1,655.3 4,706.9 3,067.5 1,301.32012 1,017.3 4,355.7 1,668.2 4,725.1 3,039.6 1,298.32013E 1,024.2 4,305.2 1,693.3 4,773.4 3,022.9 1,306.9Forecast2014 1,028.1 4,316.3 1,703.5 4,812.0 3,019.6 1,315.82015 1,026.0 4,338.5 1,717.6 4,816.9 3,027.5 1,318.02016 1,026.0 4,360.8 1,729.7 4,821.7 3,033.0 1,322.52017 1,027.1 4,383.2 1,739.9 4,826.6 3,037.7 1,328.72018 1,029.6 4,405.7 1,748.9 4,831.5 3,041.0 1,335.82019 1,032.2 4,428.4 1,756.9 4,836.4 3,043.6 1,343.72020 1,034.8 4,451.1 1,764.1 4,841.3 3,048.1 1,351.82021 1,037.4 4,474.0 1,771.0 4,846.2 3,053.9 1,360.82022 1,040.0 4,497.0 1,777.3 4,851.1 3,059.1 1,369.82023 1,042.6 4,520.1 1,782.9 4,856.0 3,063.4 1,378.72024 1,045.2 4,543.3 1,788.0 4,860.9 3,066.1 1,387.02025 1,047.8 4,566.7 1,792.6 4,865.8 3,068.2 1,395.12026 1,050.4 4,590.2 1,796.7 4,870.7 3,069.7 1,403.22027 1,053.0 4,613.8 1,800.6 4,875.6 3,071.1 1,411.52028 1,055.7 4,637.5 1,803.9 4,880.5 3,072.0 1,419.72029 1,058.3 4,661.3 1,806.8 4,885.5 3,071.7 1,428.02030 1,061.0 4,685.3 1,809.3 4,890.4 3,070.7 1,436.32031 1,063.6 4,709.4 1,811.4 4,895.4 3,069.5 1,444.82032 1,066.3 4,733.6 1,813.3 4,900.3 3,068.0 1,453.32033 1,068.9 4,757.9 1,814.7 4,905.3 3,065.8 1,461.72034 1,071.6 4,782.4 1,815.8 4,910.2 3,063.0 1,470.3* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.TABLE 15INTERNATIONALFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

107DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMFISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2013$ CURRENT $ FY 2013 $CURRENT $FY 2013 $YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)Historical2000 14.03 19.08 10.46 14.22 13.06 17.772006 12.36 14.31 11.63 13.47 12.15 14.072007 12.45 14.08 12.45 14.09 12.45 14.082008 13.11 14.20 13.37 14.49 13.19 14.292009 11.95 12.99 11.68 12.69 11.87 12.892010 12.87 13.75 12.83 13.71 12.86 13.742011 13.62 14.18 14.09 14.67 13.77 14.342012 14.08 14.31 14.72 14.96 14.28 14.522013E 14.42 14.42 14.76 14.76 14.52 14.52Forecast2014 14.85 14.63 14.99 14.78 14.90 14.682015 15.04 14.59 15.14 14.68 15.07 14.622016 15.29 14.56 15.34 14.61 15.31 14.582017 15.57 14.55 15.53 14.51 15.55 14.542018 15.79 14.48 15.74 14.43 15.77 14.472019 16.02 14.42 15.93 14.34 15.99 14.392020 16.24 14.34 16.14 14.26 16.21 14.312021 16.47 14.27 16.36 14.17 16.43 14.232022 16.69 14.18 16.57 14.08 16.65 14.142023 16.90 14.09 16.78 14.00 16.86 14.062024 17.12 14.01 17.00 13.91 17.08 13.972025 17.35 13.92 17.23 13.82 17.30 13.882026 17.57 13.83 17.46 13.74 17.53 13.802027 17.82 13.74 17.71 13.66 17.78 13.712028 18.05 13.65 17.96 13.58 18.01 13.622029 18.29 13.57 18.21 13.50 18.26 13.542030 18.54 13.48 18.47 13.43 18.51 13.462031 18.80 13.39 18.75 13.36 18.78 13.382032 19.07 13.31 19.03 13.27 19.05 13.292033 19.35 13.22 19.31 13.20 19.33 13.212034 19.64 13.13 19.61 13.11 19.63 13.12Avg Annual Growth2000-13 0.2% -2.1% 2.7% 0.3% 0.8% -1.5%2013-14 3.0% 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 2.6% 1.1%2013-23 1.6% -0.2% 1.3% -0.5% 1.5% -0.3%2013-34 1.5% -0.4% 1.4% -0.6% 1.4% -0.5%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.TABLE 16U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONSPASSENGER YIELDSREVENUE PER PASSENGER MILEFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

108ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONALFISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2013 $CURRENT $ FY2013 $ CURRENT $ FY2013 $ CURRENT $ FY 2013 $YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)Historical2000 9.73 13.24 13.00 17.69 9.99 13.59 10.46 14.222006 11.64 13.48 12.68 14.69 10.73 12.43 11.63 13.472007 12.46 14.10 13.37 15.13 11.61 13.13 12.45 14.092008 13.29 14.40 14.19 15.37 12.73 13.79 13.37 14.492009 11.25 12.22 12.99 14.11 11.20 12.17 11.68 12.692010 12.73 13.60 13.33 14.24 12.50 13.35 12.83 13.712011 13.48 14.04 15.13 15.75 14.07 14.65 14.09 14.672012 13.95 14.18 15.71 15.96 14.95 15.19 14.72 14.962013E 14.44 14.44 15.61 15.61 14.30 14.30 14.76 14.76Forecast2014 14.80 14.59 15.74 15.52 14.48 14.27 14.99 14.782015 14.96 14.51 15.83 15.36 14.63 14.20 15.14 14.682016 15.16 14.44 16.02 15.26 14.84 14.13 15.34 14.612017 15.38 14.37 16.18 15.13 15.03 14.04 15.53 14.512018 15.59 14.30 16.37 15.01 15.24 13.98 15.74 14.432019 15.80 14.23 16.53 14.88 15.43 13.89 15.93 14.342020 16.03 14.15 16.72 14.76 15.65 13.82 16.14 14.262021 16.26 14.08 16.91 14.64 15.87 13.74 16.36 14.172022 16.49 14.01 17.10 14.53 16.09 13.67 16.57 14.082023 16.72 13.94 17.28 14.41 16.30 13.59 16.78 14.002024 16.96 13.87 17.47 14.29 16.52 13.52 17.00 13.912025 17.20 13.80 17.66 14.17 16.76 13.45 17.23 13.822026 17.45 13.74 17.86 14.06 17.00 13.38 17.46 13.742027 17.72 13.67 18.08 13.95 17.26 13.31 17.71 13.662028 17.98 13.60 18.30 13.84 17.52 13.25 17.96 13.582029 18.24 13.53 18.53 13.74 17.78 13.19 18.21 13.502030 18.52 13.46 18.76 13.64 18.06 13.13 18.47 13.432031 18.80 13.40 19.02 13.55 18.34 13.07 18.75 13.362032 19.10 13.33 19.26 13.44 18.64 13.01 19.03 13.272033 19.41 13.26 19.51 13.33 18.95 12.95 19.31 13.202034 19.72 13.18 19.76 13.21 19.26 12.88 19.61 13.11Avg Annual Growth2000-13 3.1% 0.7% 1.4% -1.0% 2.8% 0.4% 2.7% 0.3%2013-14 2.5% 1.0% 0.9% -0.6% 1.3% -0.2% 1.6% 0.1%2013-23 1.5% -0.4% 1.0% -0.8% 1.3% -0.5% 1.3% -0.5%2013-34 1.5% -0.4% 1.1% -0.8% 1.4% -0.5% 1.4% -0.6%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.TABLE 17U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONSINTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGIONREVENUE PER PASSENGER MILEFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

109DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMFISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2013 $ CURRENT $ FY 2013 $ CURRENT $ FY 2013 $YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)Historical2000 71.49 97.26 79.35 107.95 73.57 100.082006 194.69 225.45 204.69 237.04 197.72 228.972007 194.01 219.50 203.31 230.02 196.90 222.772008 292.64 317.02 314.57 340.78 299.74 324.712009 202.31 219.82 208.41 226.45 204.35 222.032010 219.19 234.16 220.06 235.09 219.49 234.482011 274.41 285.69 271.77 282.94 273.44 284.682012 295.00 299.84 287.40 292.12 292.13 296.922013E 294.53 294.53 283.64 283.64 290.40 290.40Forecast2014 288.28 284.11 277.62 273.60 284.23 280.132015 274.15 265.97 264.02 256.14 270.31 262.242016 271.43 258.52 261.39 248.96 267.62 254.892017 278.20 259.99 267.92 250.37 274.30 256.342018 287.31 263.51 276.69 253.77 283.29 259.822019 297.16 267.50 286.17 257.61 292.99 263.752020 306.56 270.73 295.22 260.72 302.26 266.932021 315.16 272.91 303.51 262.82 310.74 269.092022 322.10 273.67 310.19 263.55 317.59 269.832023 328.83 274.23 316.67 264.09 324.22 270.392024 335.58 274.54 323.17 264.39 330.87 270.692025 341.79 274.28 329.16 264.14 337.00 270.432026 348.00 273.88 335.13 263.76 343.12 270.042027 354.25 273.21 341.15 263.11 349.28 269.382028 360.61 272.75 347.27 262.66 355.55 268.922029 367.14 272.28 353.57 262.21 362.00 268.462030 373.84 271.79 360.02 261.74 368.60 267.982031 380.77 271.24 366.70 261.21 375.44 267.442032 387.85 270.62 373.51 260.61 382.41 266.822033 395.03 269.91 380.43 259.93 389.49 266.132034 402.35 268.99 387.47 259.04 396.71 265.21Avg Annual Growth2000-13 11.5% 8.9% 10.3% 7.7% 11.1% 8.5%2013-14 -2.1% -3.5% -2.1% -3.5% -2.1% -3.5%2013-23 1.1% -0.7% 1.1% -0.7% 1.1% -0.7%2013-34 1.5% -0.4% 1.5% -0.4% 1.5% -0.4%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.TABLE 18U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONSJET FUEL PRICESFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

110ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS TOTAL RTMSFISCAL (Millions) (Millions) (Millions)YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTALHistorical2000 10,423.7 7,960.6 18,384.3 4,456.1 7,879.9 12,336.0 14,879.8 15,840.5 30,720.32006 12,481.2 15,725.4 28,206.6 2,899.7 8,483.5 11,383.2 15,380.9 24,208.9 39,589.82007 12,940.5 17,502.7 30,443.2 2,278.6 7,187.0 9,465.7 15,219.1 24,689.7 39,908.82008 12,260.7 17,516.1 29,776.7 2,147.0 6,905.4 9,052.4 14,407.6 24,421.5 38,829.12009 10,275.3 13,834.3 24,109.7 1,623.2 5,265.9 6,889.1 11,898.6 19,100.2 30,998.82010 11,243.2 16,732.7 27,975.9 1,579.8 6,331.9 7,911.7 12,823.1 23,064.5 35,887.62011 10,601.2 18,979.4 29,580.5 1,445.7 6,250.5 7,696.2 12,046.9 25,229.8 37,276.72012 10,880.3 18,312.3 29,192.5 1,414.5 5,949.5 7,364.0 12,294.8 24,261.8 36,556.62013E 10,991.5 16,739.6 27,731.1 1,383.7 5,697.6 7,081.3 12,375.2 22,437.2 34,812.4Forecast2014 11,138.3 16,909.2 28,047.4 1,388.0 5,664.6 7,052.6 12,526.3 22,573.8 35,100.02015 11,389.6 18,471.8 29,861.4 1,404.9 6,089.7 7,494.6 12,794.5 24,561.5 37,356.02016 11,667.2 19,987.4 31,654.6 1,428.2 6,483.7 7,911.9 13,095.3 26,471.2 39,566.52017 11,920.7 21,518.0 33,438.7 1,447.9 6,867.5 8,315.4 13,368.6 28,385.5 41,754.12018 12,144.7 22,992.1 35,136.8 1,463.7 7,218.4 8,682.1 13,608.4 30,210.5 43,818.82019 12,343.4 24,492.1 36,835.5 1,476.0 7,562.9 9,039.0 13,819.5 32,055.0 45,874.52020 12,520.3 25,915.6 38,435.9 1,485.4 7,869.8 9,355.3 14,005.8 33,785.4 47,791.22021 12,679.3 27,329.0 40,008.2 1,492.4 8,160.3 9,652.7 14,171.7 35,489.2 49,660.92022 12,831.2 28,782.5 41,613.7 1,498.3 8,449.2 9,947.5 14,329.5 37,231.7 51,561.22023 12,980.8 30,301.3 43,282.0 1,503.6 8,743.5 10,247.1 14,484.4 39,044.8 53,529.22024 13,133.0 31,951.8 45,084.8 1,509.0 9,061.3 10,570.2 14,642.0 41,013.0 55,655.02025 13,289.9 33,634.4 46,924.3 1,514.6 9,372.8 10,887.5 14,804.6 43,007.2 57,811.82026 13,450.6 35,383.6 48,834.2 1,520.4 9,687.4 11,207.8 14,971.0 45,070.9 60,042.02027 13,614.7 37,215.2 50,829.9 1,526.3 10,008.4 11,534.7 15,141.0 47,223.6 62,364.62028 13,781.0 39,115.3 52,896.3 1,532.2 10,331.2 11,863.4 15,313.2 49,446.5 64,759.72029 13,950.8 41,099.8 55,050.6 1,538.2 10,659.0 12,197.2 15,489.0 51,758.8 67,247.82030 14,123.5 43,161.4 57,285.0 1,544.2 10,989.1 12,533.3 15,667.7 54,150.5 69,818.22031 14,297.5 45,289.2 59,586.7 1,550.0 11,317.8 12,867.8 15,847.5 56,607.0 72,454.52032 14,472.8 47,501.1 61,973.9 1,555.7 11,648.7 13,204.4 16,028.5 59,149.8 75,178.32033 14,651.5 49,836.2 64,487.7 1,561.4 11,990.4 13,551.9 16,212.9 61,826.6 78,039.52034 14,833.3 52,258.3 67,091.7 1,567.2 12,332.8 13,900.0 16,400.5 64,591.1 80,991.6Avg Annual Growth2000-13 0.4% 5.9% 3.2% -8.6% -2.5% -4.2% -1.4% 2.7% 1.0%2013-14 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 0.3% -0.6% -0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.8%2013-23 1.7% 6.1% 4.6% 0.8% 4.4% 3.8% 1.6% 5.7% 4.4%2013-34 1.4% 5.6% 4.3% 0.6% 3.7% 3.3% 1.4% 5.2% 4.1%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include newreporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.3Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.TABLE 19U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERSAIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

111FISCAL ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC OTHER INTERNATIONAL TOTALYEAR (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)Historical2000 5,416.8 1,791.2 7,543.8 1,088.7 15,840.52006 6,084.1 2,004.9 9,564.2 6,555.6 24,208.92007 6,124.7 2,304.2 9,497.3 6,763.5 24,689.72008 6,415.4 2,336.3 9,050.0 6,619.8 24,421.52009 5,740.1 1,793.4 6,855.4 4,711.2 19,100.22010 6,865.3 1,990.6 8,348.4 5,860.3 23,064.52011 7,235.5 1,832.4 9,105.4 7,056.5 25,229.82012 7,026.5 1,870.0 8,568.9 6,796.4 24,261.82013E 6,658.2 1,788.6 8,184.2 5,806.3 22,437.2Forecast2014 6,589.7 1,758.3 8,684.7 5,541.1 22,573.82015 7,059.5 1,909.3 9,485.8 6,106.9 24,561.52016 7,532.7 2,055.9 10,294.0 6,588.6 26,471.22017 8,014.9 2,199.8 11,144.9 7,025.8 28,385.52018 8,481.8 2,337.5 11,955.9 7,435.3 30,210.52019 8,946.6 2,471.4 12,788.1 7,848.9 32,055.02020 9,399.4 2,594.9 13,530.0 8,261.1 33,785.42021 9,851.7 2,712.6 14,240.9 8,684.0 35,489.22022 10,311.5 2,829.9 14,977.6 9,112.8 37,231.72023 10,789.2 2,949.2 15,755.6 9,550.8 39,044.82024 11,297.9 3,076.0 16,634.7 10,004.4 41,013.02025 11,817.4 3,203.1 17,519.7 10,467.0 43,007.22026 12,352.3 3,333.1 18,442.7 10,942.8 45,070.92027 12,910.8 3,467.1 19,409.4 11,436.3 47,223.62028 13,490.7 3,604.6 20,409.4 11,941.8 49,446.52029 14,095.4 3,747.4 21,456.4 12,459.5 51,758.82030 14,726.6 3,895.1 22,540.3 12,988.5 54,150.52031 15,381.2 4,047.0 23,650.7 13,528.1 56,607.02032 16,059.6 4,204.3 24,805.4 14,080.5 59,149.82033 16,770.0 4,369.7 26,034.8 14,652.1 61,826.62034 17,508.7 4,540.8 27,304.0 15,237.7 64,591.1Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.6% 0.0% 0.6% 13.7% 2.7%2013-14 -1.0% -1.7% 6.1% -4.6% 0.6%2013-23 4.9% 5.1% 6.8% 5.1% 5.7%2013-34 4.7% 4.5% 5.9% 4.7% 5.2%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.TABLE 20U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERSINTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

112TABLE 21CALENDAR LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY LARGE REGIONAL TOTALYEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL JETS JETS JETSHistorical2000 3,364 385 0 3,749 424 169 120 713 4,462 26 4,4882006 3,302 26 0 3,328 462 19 49 530 3,858 39 3,8972007 3,354 29 0 3,383 477 12 47 536 3,919 63 3,9822008 3,170 10 1 3,181 471 9 44 524 3,705 79 3,7842009 3,108 9 1 3,118 447 9 42 498 3,616 78 3,6942010 3,120 8 1 3,129 470 9 43 522 3,651 71 3,7222011 3,127 7 1 3,135 471 7 41 519 3,654 76 3,7302012 3,121 7 0 3,128 480 3 40 523 3,651 82 3,7332013E 3,155 5 0 3,160 481 0 40 521 3,681 93 3,774Forecast2014 3,174 5 0 3,179 489 0 40 529 3,708 96 3,8042015 3,199 5 0 3,204 507 0 40 547 3,751 102 3,8532016 3,238 5 0 3,243 527 0 40 567 3,810 108 3,9182017 3,271 5 0 3,276 543 0 40 583 3,859 114 3,9732018 3,273 5 0 3,278 578 0 40 618 3,896 107 4,0032019 3,291 5 0 3,296 594 0 31 625 3,921 97 4,0182020 3,336 5 0 3,341 633 0 16 649 3,990 97 4,0872021 3,376 5 0 3,381 670 0 12 682 4,063 97 4,1602022 3,430 1 0 3,431 701 0 6 707 4,138 97 4,2352023 3,476 0 0 3,476 714 0 4 718 4,194 97 4,2912024 3,512 0 0 3,512 731 0 0 731 4,243 97 4,3402025 3,554 0 0 3,554 757 0 0 757 4,311 102 4,4132026 3,601 0 0 3,601 775 0 0 775 4,376 107 4,4832027 3,635 0 0 3,635 783 0 0 783 4,418 112 4,5302028 3,665 0 0 3,665 808 0 0 808 4,473 114 4,5872029 3,718 0 0 3,718 833 0 0 833 4,551 114 4,6652030 3,779 0 0 3,779 860 0 0 860 4,639 114 4,7532031 3,839 0 0 3,839 885 0 0 885 4,724 113 4,8372032 3,895 0 0 3,895 918 0 0 918 4,813 113 4,9262033 3,948 0 0 3,948 948 0 0 948 4,896 113 5,0092034 4,016 0 0 4,016 983 0 0 983 4,999 113 5,112Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -0.5% -28.4% N/A -1.3% 1.0% -100.0% -8.1% -2.4% -1.5% 10.3% -1.3%2013-14 0.6% 0.0% N/A 0.6% 1.7% N/A 0.0% 1.5% 0.7% 3.2% 0.8%2013-23 1.0% -100.0% N/A 1.0% 4.0% N/A -20.6% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4% 1.3%2013-34 1.2% -100.0% N/A 1.1% 3.5% N/A -100.0% 3.1% 1.5% 0.9% 1.5%U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERSPASSENGER JET AIRCRAFTFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

113TABLE 22CALENDAR LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODYYEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL TOTALHistorical2000 166 332 176 674 164 158 68 390 1,0642006 162 220 78 460 260 208 80 548 1,0082007 162 162 75 399 272 213 86 571 9702008 163 116 29 308 274 207 82 563 8712009 154 107 30 291 253 196 82 531 8222010 153 104 31 288 265 200 97 562 8502011 175 89 26 290 281 203 96 580 8702012 186 67 12 265 292 188 93 573 8382013E 191 15 0 206 296 174 64 534 740Forecast2014 191 15 0 206 294 174 64 532 7382015 193 15 0 208 301 172 67 540 7482016 199 13 0 212 309 173 70 552 7642017 204 13 0 217 316 171 73 560 7772018 210 13 0 223 338 167 73 578 8012019 213 13 0 226 356 164 75 595 8212020 216 11 0 227 374 154 78 606 8332021 219 9 0 228 390 144 81 615 8432022 224 7 0 231 408 136 84 628 8592023 235 2 0 237 421 131 88 640 8772024 243 0 0 243 439 128 91 658 9012025 251 0 0 251 453 127 92 672 9232026 257 0 0 257 470 127 94 691 9482027 263 0 0 263 490 128 95 713 9762028 270 0 0 270 511 129 97 737 1,0072029 275 0 0 275 530 129 99 758 1,0332030 282 0 0 282 551 129 102 782 1,0642031 288 0 0 288 569 130 105 804 1,0922032 294 0 0 294 589 131 110 830 1,1242033 299 0 0 299 608 131 113 852 1,1512034 306 0 0 306 628 132 116 876 1,182Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.1% -21.2% -100.0% -8.7% 4.6% 0.7% -0.5% 2.4% -2.8%2013-14 0.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% -0.7% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4% -0.3%2013-23 2.1% -18.2% N/A 1.4% 3.6% -2.8% 3.2% 1.8% 1.7%2013-34 2.3% -100.0% N/A 1.9% 3.6% -1.3% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3%U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERSCARGO JET AIRCRAFTFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

114(Millions of Gallons)JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE TOTALFISCAL U.S. AIR CARRIERS1,2GENERAL AIR GENERAL FUELYEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL AVIATION TOTAL CARRIER AVIATION TOTAL CONSUMEDHistorical2000 15,030 5,484 20,513 972 21,485 2 333 335 21,3502006 13,775 6,186 19,961 1,643 21,603 2 283 285 21,8892007 13,882 6,309 20,191 1,486 21,676 2 274 276 21,9522008 13,397 6,499 19,896 1,706 21,602 2 248 250 21,8522009 11,896 6,033 17,929 1,447 19,376 2 227 229 19,6062010 11,973 6,290 18,263 1,435 19,698 2 221 223 19,9212011 12,092 6,547 18,639 1,456 20,095 2 217 219 20,3152012 12,038 6,590 18,628 1,435 20,063 2 206 208 20,2722013E 11,812 6,355 18,167 1,413 19,580 2 202 204 19,785Forecast2014 11,810 6,462 18,271 1,470 19,741 2 200 202 19,9432015 12,035 6,703 18,738 1,521 20,259 2 197 199 20,4582016 12,252 6,950 19,202 1,576 20,777 2 195 197 20,9742017 12,461 7,209 19,670 1,636 21,305 2 193 195 21,5002018 12,681 7,462 20,143 1,694 21,837 2 191 193 22,0312019 12,862 7,719 20,581 1,757 22,338 2 190 192 22,5302020 13,002 7,958 20,960 1,823 22,783 2 189 191 22,9742021 13,094 8,190 21,283 1,878 23,161 2 188 190 23,3512022 13,171 8,420 21,591 1,935 23,526 2 188 190 23,7162023 13,260 8,655 21,916 1,990 23,906 2 188 190 24,0952024 13,384 8,905 22,289 2,045 24,334 2 188 190 24,5242025 13,515 9,157 22,672 2,104 24,775 2 188 190 24,9652026 13,645 9,414 23,059 2,158 25,218 2 188 190 25,4072027 13,767 9,675 23,442 2,216 25,658 2 188 190 25,8492028 13,899 9,939 23,838 2,276 26,114 2 188 190 26,3042029 14,021 10,214 24,235 2,336 26,571 2 189 191 26,7622030 14,144 10,493 24,637 2,394 27,031 2 189 191 27,2222031 14,254 10,775 25,029 2,454 27,483 2 190 192 27,6752032 14,365 11,060 25,424 2,511 27,936 2 192 194 28,1292033 14,474 11,353 25,827 2,568 28,395 2 193 195 28,5902034 14,584 11,653 26,237 2,629 28,866 2 195 197 29,062Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -1.8% 1.1% -0.9% 2.9% -0.7% 0.0% -3.8% -3.7% -0.6%2013-14 0.0% 1.7% 0.6% 4.0% 0.8% 0.0% -1.2% -1.2% 0.8%2013-23 1.2% 3.1% 1.9% 3.5% 2.0% 0.0% -0.7% -0.7% 2.0%2013-34 1.0% 2.9% 1.8% 3.0% 1.9% 0.0% -0.2% -0.2% 1.8%* Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.1Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.2Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in ASMs/Gallon for U.S. Commercial Air CarrierTABLE 23TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTIONU.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFTFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

115REVENUE PERAVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTHFISCAL DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM CURRENT $ 2013$YEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Cents) (Cents)Historical2000 38.4 41.8 38.5 286.5 260.0 285.5 30.28 41.202006 49.3 52.2 49.4 450.4 467.2 450.7 19.84 22.982007 49.9 54.0 50.0 451.5 518.1 452.9 19.95 22.572008 52.9 53.4 53.0 460.8 532.7 462.3 21.04 22.792009 55.2 52.8 55.1 456.9 512.3 457.8 17.04 18.522010 56.1 53.2 56.1 464.3 502.9 465.0 15.73 16.812011 56.4 52.7 56.3 467.0 531.4 468.0 15.10 15.732012 56.1 54.8 56.0 467.4 605.7 470.0 13.16 13.382013E 56.1 55.1 56.1 469.3 641.5 472.4 11.66 11.66Forecast2014 57.5 55.4 57.5 471.7 646.5 474.9 12.00 11.832015 57.9 55.7 57.9 473.3 651.5 476.6 12.15 11.792016 58.3 56.0 58.3 474.8 656.5 478.2 12.36 11.772017 58.8 56.3 58.7 476.8 661.5 480.2 12.58 11.752018 59.2 56.6 59.1 478.8 666.5 482.3 12.76 11.702019 59.6 56.9 59.6 480.8 671.5 484.3 12.94 11.652020 60.1 57.2 60.0 482.8 676.5 486.4 13.12 11.592021 60.5 57.5 60.5 484.8 681.5 488.4 13.30 11.522022 61.0 57.8 60.9 486.8 686.5 490.5 13.48 11.452023 61.4 58.1 61.3 488.8 691.5 492.5 13.64 11.382024 61.9 58.4 61.8 490.8 696.5 494.6 13.82 11.312025 62.3 58.7 62.3 492.8 701.5 496.6 14.00 11.242026 62.8 59.0 62.7 494.8 706.5 498.7 14.18 11.162027 63.3 59.3 63.2 496.8 711.5 500.8 14.38 11.092028 63.7 59.6 63.6 498.8 716.5 502.8 14.57 11.022029 64.2 59.9 64.1 500.8 721.5 504.9 14.76 10.952030 64.7 60.2 64.6 502.8 726.5 506.9 14.96 10.882031 65.2 60.5 65.0 504.8 731.5 509.0 15.17 10.802032 65.6 60.8 65.5 506.8 736.5 511.0 15.39 10.732033 66.1 61.1 66.0 508.8 741.5 513.1 15.61 10.662034 66.6 61.4 66.5 510.8 746.5 515.1 15.85 10.59Avg Annual Growth2000-13 3.0% 2.2% 2.9% 3.9% 7.2% 3.9% -7.1% -9.3%2013-14 2.5% 0.5% 2.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 3.0% 1.5%2013-23 0.9% 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 1.6% -0.2%2013-34 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 1.5% -0.5%* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.** Reporting carriers.TABLE 24PASSENGER MILE**U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONSFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

116(In Millions)FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILESYEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMHistorical2000 79.7 3.1 82.8 22,825 814 23,6392006 152.2 3.5 155.7 68,532 1,634 70,1662007 156.2 3.4 159.6 70,528 1,772 72,3002008 159.1 3.5 162.6 73,305 1,867 75,1722009 154.0 2.5 156.6 70,374 1,304 71,6782010 161.6 2.7 164.3 75,053 1,347 76,4002011 161.7 2.4 164.1 75,513 1,270 76,7832012 159.0 3.1 162.1 74,330 1,856 76,1862013E 155.5 2.9 158.3 72,951 1,851 74,801Forecast2014 157.5 2.9 160.4 74,278 1,889 76,1672015 162.6 3.0 165.6 76,974 1,966 78,9402016 167.4 3.1 170.5 79,496 2,040 81,5362017 172.0 3.2 175.1 81,997 2,111 84,1082018 176.5 3.3 179.8 84,510 2,183 86,6932019 180.5 3.3 183.8 86,782 2,249 89,0312020 183.9 3.4 187.3 88,797 2,309 91,1052021 186.7 3.5 190.1 90,509 2,361 92,8692022 189.2 3.5 192.8 92,132 2,411 94,5432023 192.0 3.6 195.6 93,859 2,464 96,3232024 195.3 3.6 198.9 95,851 2,524 98,3752025 198.7 3.7 202.4 97,922 2,586 100,5092026 202.1 3.8 205.9 100,017 2,650 102,6672027 205.5 3.8 209.3 102,083 2,713 104,7962028 209.0 3.9 212.8 104,243 2,778 107,0222029 212.4 3.9 216.3 106,372 2,844 109,2152030 215.8 4.0 219.8 108,522 2,910 111,4312031 219.2 4.1 223.2 110,642 2,975 113,6172032 222.5 4.1 226.7 112,792 3,041 115,8332033 225.9 4.2 230.1 114,969 3,109 118,0782034 229.4 4.3 233.6 117,174 3,177 120,351Avg Annual Growth2000-13 5.3% -0.6% 5.1% 9.3% 6.5% 9.3%2013-14 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% 1.8%2013-23 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.6% 2.9% 2.6%2013-34 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.3% 2.6% 2.3%* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.TABLE 25U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERSSCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFICFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

117DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMFISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOADYEAR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTORHistorical2000 38,332 22,825 59.5 1,338 814 60.8 39,670 23,639 59.62006 91,458 68,532 74.9 2,387 1,634 68.5 93,845 70,166 74.82007 93,452 70,528 75.5 2,550 1,772 69.5 96,002 72,300 75.32008 99,469 73,305 73.7 2,632 1,867 70.9 102,101 75,172 73.62009 94,664 70,374 74.3 1,859 1,304 70.2 96,523 71,678 74.32010 98,489 75,053 76.2 1,857 1,347 72.5 100,346 76,400 76.12011 99,075 75,513 76.2 1,818 1,270 69.9 100,893 76,783 76.12012 95,748 74,330 77.6 2,595 1,856 71.5 98,343 76,186 77.52013E 93,075 72,951 78.4 2,448 1,851 75.6 95,523 74,801 78.3Forecast2014 95,151 74,278 78.1 2,482 1,889 76.1 97,633 76,167 78.02015 98,554 76,974 78.1 2,567 1,966 76.6 101,120 78,940 78.12016 101,736 79,496 78.1 2,645 2,040 77.1 104,381 81,536 78.12017 104,890 81,997 78.2 2,720 2,111 77.6 107,610 84,108 78.22018 108,060 84,510 78.2 2,795 2,183 78.1 110,855 86,693 78.22019 110,921 86,782 78.2 2,861 2,249 78.6 113,782 89,031 78.22020 113,455 88,797 78.3 2,919 2,309 79.1 116,374 91,105 78.32021 115,602 90,509 78.3 2,966 2,361 79.6 118,568 92,869 78.32022 117,638 92,132 78.3 3,010 2,411 80.1 120,648 94,543 78.42023 119,806 93,859 78.3 3,057 2,464 80.6 122,863 96,323 78.42024 122,312 95,851 78.4 3,112 2,524 81.1 125,425 98,375 78.42025 124,921 97,922 78.4 3,170 2,586 81.6 128,091 100,509 78.52026 127,560 100,017 78.4 3,238 2,650 81.8 130,798 102,667 78.52027 130,162 102,083 78.4 3,304 2,713 82.1 133,467 104,796 78.52028 132,885 104,243 78.4 3,374 2,778 82.3 136,259 107,022 78.52029 135,567 106,372 78.5 3,443 2,844 82.6 139,010 109,215 78.62030 138,277 108,522 78.5 3,518 2,910 82.7 141,796 111,431 78.62031 140,949 110,642 78.5 3,593 2,975 82.8 144,542 113,617 78.62032 143,660 112,792 78.5 3,669 3,041 82.9 147,329 115,833 78.62033 146,406 114,969 78.5 3,746 3,109 83.0 150,152 118,078 78.62034 149,185 117,174 78.5 3,824 3,177 83.1 153,009 120,351 78.7Avg Annual Growth2000-13 7.1% 9.3% 4.8% 6.5% 7.0% 9.3%2013-14 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 2.1% 2.2% 1.8%2013-23 2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.6%2013-34 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.6% 2.3% 2.3%* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.TABLE 26U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERSSCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORSFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

118TABLE 27REGIONAL AIRCRAFTAS OF LESS THAN 10 TO 19 20 TO 30 31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEETJANUARY 1 9 SEATS SEATS SEATS PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET** TOTAL NON JET JET TOTALHistorical2000 470 343 262 474 74 548 155 496 651 1,704 570 2,2742006 453 204 88 224 92 316 87 1,584 1,671 1,056 1,676 2,7322007 453 172 79 228 91 319 101 1,656 1,757 1,033 1,747 2,7802008 451 107 68 180 25 205 121 1,730 1,851 927 1,755 2,6822009 466 103 65 153 29 182 115 1,722 1,837 902 1,751 2,6532010 440 92 82 144 28 172 99 1,728 1,827 857 1,756 2,6132011 447 94 67 113 27 140 135 1,683 1,818 856 1,710 2,5662012 394 90 55 115 23 138 104 1,559 1,663 758 1,582 2,3402013E 337 94 52 37 0 37 51 1,642 1,693 571 1,642 2,213Forecast2014 326 91 50 36 0 36 53 1,646 1,699 556 1,646 2,2022015 317 88 49 35 0 35 54 1,642 1,696 543 1,642 2,1852016 304 85 47 33 0 33 57 1,640 1,697 526 1,640 2,1662017 293 82 45 32 0 32 59 1,645 1,704 511 1,645 2,1562018 282 79 43 31 0 31 61 1,644 1,705 496 1,644 2,1402019 271 75 42 30 0 30 62 1,660 1,722 480 1,660 2,1402020 258 72 40 28 0 28 64 1,668 1,732 462 1,668 2,1302021 247 69 38 27 0 27 67 1,689 1,756 448 1,689 2,1372022 234 65 36 26 0 26 69 1,712 1,781 430 1,712 2,1422023 219 61 34 24 0 24 72 1,724 1,796 410 1,724 2,1342024 204 57 32 22 0 22 75 1,740 1,815 390 1,740 2,1302025 190 53 29 21 0 21 77 1,752 1,829 370 1,752 2,1222026 173 48 27 19 0 19 80 1,768 1,848 347 1,768 2,1152027 157 44 24 17 0 17 83 1,784 1,867 325 1,784 2,1092028 144 40 22 16 0 16 85 1,801 1,886 307 1,801 2,1082029 129 36 20 14 0 14 89 1,827 1,916 288 1,827 2,1152030 116 32 18 13 0 13 91 1,855 1,946 270 1,855 2,1252031 99 28 15 11 0 11 94 1,879 1,973 247 1,879 2,1262032 85 24 13 9 0 9 97 1,904 2,001 228 1,904 2,1322033 72 20 11 8 0 8 100 1,928 2,028 211 1,928 2,1392034 55 15 9 6 0 6 103 1,953 2,056 188 1,953 2,141Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -2.5% -9.5% -11.7% -17.8% -100.0% -18.7% -8.2% 9.6% 7.6% -8.1% 8.5% -0.2%2013-14 -3.3% -3.2% -3.8% -2.7% N/A -2.7% 3.9% 0.2% 0.4% -2.6% 0.2% -0.5%2013-23 -4.2% -4.2% -4.2% -4.2% N/A -4.2% 3.5% 0.5% 0.6% -3.3% 0.5% -0.4%2013-34 -8.3% -8.4% -8.0% -8.3% N/A -8.3% 3.4% 0.8% 0.9% -5.2% 0.8% -0.2%*Source: The Velocity Group for the Regional Airline Association through 2004.**Independence Air A319 aircraft are included in Table 20 - U.S. Mainline Air Carriers Passenger Jet Aircraft.U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERSPASSENGER AIRCRAFTFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

119FIXED WINGTOTALPISTONGENERALAS OF SINGLE MULTI- TURBO TURBO ROTORCRAFT EXPERI- SPORT AVIATION TOTAL TOTALDEC. 31 ENGINE ENGINE TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL** AIRCRAFT** OTHER FLEET PISTONS TURBINESHistorical2000 149,422 21,091 170,513 5,762 7,001 12,763 2,680 4,470 7,150 20,407 NA 6,700 217,533 173,193 17,2332006 145,036 18,708 163,744 8,063 10,379 18,442 3,264 5,895 9,159 23,047 1,273 6,277 221,942 167,008 24,3372007 147,569 19,337 166,906 9,514 10,385 19,899 2,769 6,798 9,567 23,228 6,066 5,940 231,606 169,675 26,6972008 145,497 17,515 163,012 8,907 11,042 19,949 3,498 6,378 9,876 23,364 6,811 5,652 228,664 166,510 26,3272009 140,649 16,474 157,123 9,055 11,268 20,323 3,499 6,485 9,984 24,419 6,547 5,480 223,876 160,622 26,8082010 139,519 15,900 155,419 9,369 11,484 20,853 3,588 6,514 10,102 24,784 6,528 5,684 223,370 159,007 27,3672011E 136,895 15,702 152,597 9,523 11,650 21,173 3,411 6,671 10,082 24,275 6,645 5,681 220,453 156,008 27,8442012 128,847 14,313 143,160 10,304 11,793 22,097 3,292 6,763 10,055 26,715 2,001 5,006 209,034 146,452 28,8602013E 123,730 14,235 137,965 10,195 11,890 22,085 3,360 7,025 10,385 25,305 2,110 5,015 202,865 141,325 29,110Forecast2014 122,755 14,180 136,935 10,160 12,055 22,215 3,430 7,280 10,710 25,895 2,240 5,025 203,020 140,365 29,4952015 121,850 14,130 135,980 10,175 12,250 22,425 3,500 7,545 11,045 26,415 2,370 5,035 203,270 139,480 29,9702016 121,000 14,075 135,075 10,190 12,540 22,730 3,570 7,820 11,390 26,880 2,515 5,040 203,630 138,645 30,5502017 120,200 14,020 134,220 10,230 12,875 23,105 3,640 8,110 11,750 27,305 2,690 5,050 204,120 137,860 31,2152018 119,435 13,955 133,390 10,285 13,225 23,510 3,710 8,405 12,115 27,705 2,830 5,065 204,615 137,100 31,9152019 118,700 13,890 132,590 10,355 13,600 23,955 3,775 8,690 12,465 28,100 2,955 5,075 205,140 136,365 32,6452020 118,015 13,820 131,835 10,445 14,010 24,455 3,840 8,990 12,830 28,500 3,080 5,080 205,780 135,675 33,4452021 117,365 13,735 131,100 10,550 14,425 24,975 3,905 9,290 13,195 28,900 3,195 5,085 206,450 135,005 34,2652022 116,760 13,655 130,415 10,685 14,855 25,540 3,970 9,585 13,555 29,310 3,315 5,100 207,235 134,385 35,1252023 116,190 13,575 129,765 10,820 15,315 26,135 4,030 9,870 13,900 29,715 3,450 5,110 208,075 133,795 36,0052024 115,660 13,500 129,160 11,000 15,800 26,800 4,090 10,150 14,240 30,130 3,595 5,115 209,040 133,250 36,9502025 115,200 13,435 128,635 11,205 16,325 27,530 4,150 10,435 14,585 30,555 3,745 5,120 210,170 132,785 37,9652026 114,790 13,360 128,150 11,455 16,870 28,325 4,210 10,720 14,930 30,980 3,885 5,135 211,405 132,360 39,0452027 114,430 13,295 127,725 11,735 17,445 29,180 4,275 11,010 15,285 31,415 4,030 5,145 212,780 132,000 40,1902028 114,125 13,220 127,345 12,045 18,045 30,090 4,340 11,305 15,645 31,850 4,170 5,150 214,250 131,685 41,3952029 113,895 13,155 127,050 12,375 18,665 31,040 4,405 11,600 16,005 32,275 4,315 5,155 215,840 131,455 42,6402030 113,740 13,090 126,830 12,725 19,310 32,035 4,470 11,900 16,370 32,715 4,445 5,165 217,560 131,300 43,9352031 113,660 13,030 126,690 13,110 19,970 33,080 4,540 12,205 16,745 33,145 4,565 5,175 219,400 131,230 45,2852032 113,675 12,985 126,660 13,515 20,645 34,160 4,610 12,510 17,120 33,575 4,680 5,185 221,380 131,270 46,6702033 113,780 12,935 126,715 13,930 21,340 35,270 4,680 12,825 17,505 34,010 4,780 5,190 223,470 131,395 48,0952034 113,975 12,890 126,865 14,370 22,050 36,420 4,750 13,145 17,895 34,440 4,880 5,200 225,700 131,615 49,565Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -1.4% -3.0% -1.6% 4.5% 4.2% 4.3% 1.8% 3.5% 2.9% 1.7% N/A -2.2% -0.5% -1.6% 4.1%2013-14 -0.8% -0.4% -0.7% -0.3% 1.4% 0.6% 2.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.3% 6.2% 0.2% 0.1% -0.7% 1.3%2013-23 -0.6% -0.5% -0.6% 0.6% 2.6% 1.7% 1.8% 3.5% 3.0% 1.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.3% -0.5% 2.1%2013-34 -0.4% -0.5% -0.4% 1.6% 3.0% 2.4% 1.7% 3.0% 2.6% 1.5% 4.1% 0.2% 0.5% -0.3% 2.6%* Source: 2000-2010, 2012, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year.TURBINETABLE 28ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFTFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

120FIXED WINGTOTALPISTONGENERALCALENDAR SINGLE MULTI- TURBO TURBO ROTORCRAFT EXPERI- SPORT AVIATION TOTAL TOTALYEAR ENGINE ENGINE TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL** AIRCRAFT** OTHER HOURS PISTONS TURBINESHistorical2000 18,089 3,400 21,489 1,986 2,755 4,741 530 1,661 2,191 1,307 NA 374 30,102 22,019 6,4022006 13,976 2,550 16,525 2,162 4,077 6,240 918 2,528 3,446 1,218 66 211 27,705 17,443 8,7672007 13,571 2,686 16,257 2,661 3,938 6,600 704 2,541 3,245 1,275 260 215 27,852 16,962 9,1412008 12,746 2,328 15,074 2,457 3,600 6,057 751 2,470 3,222 1,155 293 209 26,009 15,825 8,5272009 11,730 1,903 13,634 2,215 3,161 5,376 755 2,248 3,003 1,286 286 178 23,763 14,389 7,6242010 12,161 1,818 13,979 2,325 3,375 5,700 794 2,611 3,405 1,226 311 181 24,802 14,773 8,3112011 11,844 1,782 13,626 2,463 3,407 5,870 757 2,654 3,411 1,203 278 181 24,570 14,383 8,5242012 11,442 1,766 13,207 2,733 3,418 6,151 731 2,723 3,454 1,243 169 180 24,404 13,938 8,8742013E 11,050 1,756 12,806 2,759 3,387 6,146 748 2,725 3,473 1,191 180 181 23,978 13,554 8,872Forecast2014 10,806 1,714 12,521 2,784 3,571 6,355 765 2,804 3,569 1,237 193 182 24,057 13,285 9,1592015 10,556 1,677 12,233 2,809 3,744 6,553 782 2,884 3,666 1,287 206 183 24,130 13,015 9,4372016 10,340 1,652 11,992 2,828 3,927 6,755 799 2,987 3,786 1,343 221 185 24,282 12,791 9,7422017 10,155 1,630 11,785 2,852 4,123 6,975 816 3,103 3,919 1,405 239 186 24,509 12,602 10,0782018 10,010 1,609 11,618 2,872 4,317 7,189 834 3,220 4,054 1,454 254 187 24,756 12,452 10,4092019 9,886 1,590 11,476 2,897 4,521 7,418 850 3,335 4,184 1,489 268 189 25,023 12,325 10,7522020 9,783 1,577 11,360 2,924 4,738 7,661 866 3,455 4,320 1,526 282 190 25,338 12,225 11,1162021 9,691 1,564 11,255 2,953 4,952 7,905 882 3,575 4,457 1,563 295 191 25,667 12,137 11,4812022 9,629 1,554 11,183 2,992 5,172 8,163 898 3,695 4,592 1,600 309 192 26,040 12,080 11,8582023 9,593 1,548 11,141 3,032 5,391 8,423 913 3,801 4,714 1,636 325 194 26,432 12,054 12,2242024 9,557 1,542 11,099 3,080 5,609 8,689 927 3,906 4,833 1,672 343 195 26,831 12,026 12,5952025 9,532 1,540 11,072 3,141 5,838 8,979 943 4,012 4,955 1,709 360 196 27,271 12,014 12,9922026 9,518 1,539 11,057 3,211 6,069 9,280 957 4,120 5,077 1,743 377 198 27,732 12,015 13,3992027 9,516 1,536 11,052 3,290 6,303 9,594 974 4,229 5,203 1,778 395 199 28,220 12,025 13,8232028 9,521 1,529 11,049 3,381 6,542 9,923 990 4,343 5,332 1,812 413 200 28,731 12,039 14,2662029 9,532 1,530 11,063 3,479 6,785 10,264 1,005 4,458 5,463 1,847 432 202 29,270 12,068 14,7212030 9,547 1,530 11,076 3,582 7,029 10,611 1,021 4,577 5,598 1,882 449 203 29,819 12,098 15,1882031 9,578 1,538 11,116 3,688 7,275 10,963 1,038 4,703 5,741 1,917 466 204 30,408 12,154 15,6662032 9,619 1,554 11,174 3,800 7,512 11,313 1,055 4,831 5,886 1,952 482 206 31,013 12,229 16,1442033 9,679 1,572 11,250 3,920 7,751 11,671 1,072 4,976 6,048 1,987 498 207 31,661 12,323 16,6462034 9,768 1,594 11,361 4,041 8,005 12,046 1,090 5,123 6,213 2,023 513 208 32,365 12,451 17,169Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -3.7% -5.0% -3.9% 2.6% 1.6% 2.0% 2.7% 3.9% 3.6% -0.7% N/A -5.4% -1.7% -3.7% 2.5%2013-14 -2.2% -2.4% -2.2% 0.9% 5.4% 3.4% 2.3% 2.9% 2.8% 3.9% 7.0% 0.7% 0.3% -2.0% 3.2%2013-23 -1.4% -1.3% -1.4% 0.9% 4.8% 3.2% 2.0% 3.4% 3.1% 3.2% 6.1% 0.7% 1.0% -1.2% 3.3%2013-34 -0.6% -0.5% -0.6% 1.8% 4.2% 3.3% 1.8% 3.1% 2.8% 2.6% 5.1% 0.7% 1.4% -0.4% 3.2%* Source: 2000-2010, 2012, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the previous calendar year.TURBINETABLE 29ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN(In Thousands)FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

121TABLE 30ROTOR- TOTAL INSTRUMENTAS OF RECREA- SPORT AIRLINE CRAFT GLIDER TOTAL LESS RATEDDEC. 31 STUDENTS TIONAL PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT ONLY ONLY PILOTS AT PILOTS PILOTS1Historical2000 93,064 340 N/A 251,561 121,858 141,596 7,775 9,387 625,581 483,985 311,9442006 84,866 239 939 219,233 117,610 141,935 10,690 21,597 597,109 455,174 309,3332007 84,339 239 2,031 211,096 115,127 143,953 12,290 21,274 590,349 446,396 309,8652008 80,989 252 2,623 222,596 124,746 146,838 14,647 21,055 613,746 466,908 325,2472009 72,280 234 3,248 211,619 125,738 144,600 15,298 21,268 594,285 449,685 323,4952010 119,1192212 3,682 202,020 123,705 142,198 15,377 21,275 627,588 485,390 318,0012011 118,657 227 4,066 194,441 120,865 142,511 15,220 21,141 617,128 474,617 314,1222012 119,946 218 4,493 188,001 116,400 145,590 15,126 20,802 610,576 464,986 311,9522013E 120,285 238 4,824 180,214 108,206 149,824 15,114 20,381 599,086 449,262 307,120Forecast2014 120,050 235 5,250 182,500 110,900 150,000 15,210 20,470 604,615 454,615 307,1002015 119,550 235 5,700 183,900 110,950 150,600 15,415 20,560 606,910 456,310 307,8502016 118,950 235 6,100 183,750 111,700 151,200 15,715 20,645 608,295 457,095 308,4002017 118,350 235 6,550 182,950 112,200 151,700 16,105 20,730 608,820 457,120 308,8002018 117,800 235 6,950 182,200 112,450 152,200 16,600 20,805 609,240 457,040 309,2502019 117,300 235 7,400 181,500 112,650 152,600 17,150 20,885 609,720 457,120 309,8502020 116,850 235 7,800 180,950 112,800 153,300 17,750 20,955 610,640 457,340 310,5502021 116,500 230 8,200 180,700 113,050 154,200 18,300 21,030 612,210 458,010 311,3002022 116,200 230 8,650 180,500 113,300 155,100 18,900 21,095 613,975 458,875 312,1502023 116,000 230 9,100 180,450 113,650 155,800 19,500 21,160 615,890 460,090 313,1002024 115,800 230 9,600 180,400 114,050 156,600 20,100 21,225 618,005 461,405 314,0502025 115,650 230 10,050 180,450 114,550 157,600 20,750 21,285 620,565 462,965 315,1002026 115,550 225 10,550 180,550 115,100 158,500 21,400 21,340 623,215 464,715 316,1502027 115,500 225 11,050 180,700 115,800 159,400 22,050 21,395 626,120 466,720 317,2502028 115,500 225 11,550 180,850 116,500 160,300 22,700 21,445 629,070 468,770 318,3502029 115,500 225 12,100 181,050 117,300 161,400 23,350 21,495 632,420 471,020 319,5002030 115,550 225 12,650 181,250 118,100 162,600 24,000 21,540 635,915 473,315 320,7002031 115,600 225 13,250 181,450 119,000 163,700 24,700 21,585 639,510 475,810 321,8502032 115,700 225 13,850 181,700 119,950 164,900 25,400 21,620 643,345 478,445 323,0002033 115,850 225 14,500 182,050 120,950 166,000 26,100 21,660 647,335 481,335 324,2002034 116,050 225 15,200 182,450 122,000 167,200 26,800 21,700 651,625 484,425 325,400Avg Annual Growth2000-13 2.0% -2.7% N/A -2.5% -0.9% 0.4% 5.2% 6.1% -0.3% -0.6% -0.1%2013-14 -0.2% -1.3% 8.8% 1.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0%2013-23 -0.4% -0.3% 6.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 2.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%2013-34 -0.2% -0.3% 5.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 2.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%* Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.1Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.2In July 2010, the FAA issued a rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under theage of 40 from 36 to 60 months.This resulted in the increase in active student pilots to 119,119 from 72,280 at the end of 2009.Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATEFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

122TABLE 31(In Millions of Gallons)FIXED WINGPISTON EXPERICALENDAR SINGLE MULTI- TURBO- TURBO- ROTORCRAFT MENTAL**/ JETYEAR ENGINE ENGINE PROP JET PISTON TURBINE OTHER SPORT** AVGAS FUEL TOTALHistorical2000 200.8 108.4 176.3 736.7 8.4 59.0 15.2 NA 332.8 972.0 1,304.82006 164.9 79.9 190.1 1,303.9 16.7 148.6 21.6 0.3 283.4 1,642.6 1,926.02007 157.6 83.0 205.2 1,148.0 9.3 132.4 22.6 1.2 273.6 1,485.6 1,759.22008 143.0 69.5 230.4 1,313.2 10.7 162.1 23.3 1.5 248.1 1,705.7 1,953.82009 132.3 57.1 208.7 1,104.6 10.7 133.6 25.8 1.4 227.4 1,447.0 1,674.42010 133.1 53.9 187.1 1,122.9 10.7 124.8 21.6 1.5 220.7 1,434.8 1,655.62011E 129.9 52.9 195.3 1,124.6 10.3 136.4 21.5 1.4 216.0 1,456.3 1,672.32012 125.8 53.9 208.8 1,077.2 10.2 148.9 15.7 0.8 206.4 1,434.9 1,641.32013E 121.5 53.6 208.2 1,056.6 10.5 148.6 15.9 0.9 202.4 1,413.4 1,615.8Forecast2014 118.8 52.6 209.0 1,108.4 10.7 152.2 16.9 1.0 200.0 1,469.5 1,669.52015 115.8 51.4 208.7 1,156.4 10.9 155.7 17.6 1.0 196.8 1,520.8 1,717.62016 113.5 50.6 209.1 1,206.7 11.2 159.7 18.2 1.1 194.5 1,575.5 1,770.12017 111.3 49.9 209.8 1,260.7 11.4 165.0 19.0 1.2 192.8 1,635.6 1,828.32018 109.7 49.2 210.2 1,313.4 11.6 170.4 19.6 1.3 191.4 1,694.0 1,885.52019 108.4 48.6 212.1 1,368.5 11.8 176.5 20.0 1.3 190.2 1,757.0 1,947.32020 107.0 48.2 213.0 1,427.0 12.1 182.8 20.5 1.4 189.2 1,822.7 2,012.02021 106.0 47.7 214.1 1,476.5 12.2 187.3 20.7 1.4 188.1 1,877.9 2,066.02022 105.1 47.4 215.8 1,526.7 12.5 192.6 21.2 1.5 187.6 1,935.0 2,122.62023 104.7 47.2 217.6 1,575.4 12.7 197.2 21.6 1.6 187.8 1,990.1 2,177.92024 104.3 47.0 221.0 1,622.8 12.9 201.6 22.1 1.7 188.0 2,045.4 2,233.42025 103.9 46.7 224.2 1,672.3 13.1 207.1 22.5 1.8 188.0 2,103.6 2,291.62026 103.4 46.7 226.9 1,721.0 13.2 210.5 22.7 1.8 187.9 2,158.4 2,346.32027 103.1 46.6 231.9 1,769.5 13.4 215.0 23.1 1.9 188.2 2,216.4 2,404.62028 102.8 46.2 238.0 1,818.3 13.7 219.7 23.5 2.0 188.2 2,276.0 2,464.22029 102.6 46.2 243.7 1,866.9 13.9 225.5 24.0 2.1 188.8 2,336.0 2,524.82030 102.5 46.2 250.2 1,914.6 14.1 229.2 24.4 2.2 189.3 2,393.9 2,583.32031 102.4 46.4 256.8 1,961.9 14.3 235.5 24.8 2.3 190.3 2,454.2 2,644.52032 102.4 46.9 263.8 2,005.6 14.6 241.9 25.2 2.3 191.5 2,511.4 2,702.92033 102.5 47.5 270.7 2,048.6 14.8 249.2 25.7 2.4 192.9 2,568.5 2,761.42034 103.0 48.1 277.7 2,094.6 15.0 256.6 26.1 2.5 194.7 2,628.9 2,823.6Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -3.8% -5.3% 1.3% 2.8% 1.7% 7.4% 0.3% N/A -3.8% 2.9% 1.7%2013-14 -2.2% -1.9% 0.4% 4.9% 2.0% 2.4% 6.5% 7.0% -1.2% 4.0% 3.3%2013-23 -1.5% -1.3% 0.4% 4.1% 1.9% 2.9% 3.1% 5.9% -0.7% 3.5% 3.0%2013-34 -0.8% -0.5% 1.4% 3.3% 1.7% 2.6% 2.4% 5.0% -0.2% 3.0% 2.7%*Source: FAA APO Estimates.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012.Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.TOTAL FUEL CONSUMEDTURBINEGENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTIONFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

123TABLE 32(In Thousands)FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY NUMBER OF TOWERSYEAR CARRIER COMMUTER ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACTHistorical2000 15,158.7 10,760.5 22,844.1 17,034.4 39,878.5 1,439.8 1,448.2 2,888.0 68,685.7 266 1922006 13,256.3 11,967.6 18,707.1 14,365.4 33,072.5 1,358.4 1,417.3 2,775.7 61,072.1 263 2312007 13,611.2 11,667.3 18,575.2 14,556.8 33,132.0 1,313.9 1,405.7 2,719.5 61,130.0 264 2352008 13,780.1 11,032.1 17,492.7 14,081.2 31,573.8 1,285.0 1,245.6 2,530.6 58,916.6 264 2392009 12,836.4 9,520.8 15,571.1 12,448.0 28,019.0 1,305.2 1,280.4 2,585.5 52,961.7 264 2442010 12,657.6 9,410.4 14,863.9 11,716.3 26,580.1 1,309.0 1,297.9 2,606.9 51,255.0 264 2442011 12,866.0 9,278.5 14,527.9 11,437.0 25,964.9 1,319.0 1,311.3 2,630.3 50,739.8 264 2482012 12,872.9 8,994.4 14,521.7 11,608.3 26,130.0 1,308.9 1,269.9 2,578.8 50,576.0 264 2502013E 12,776.0 8,803.6 14,119.0 11,690.0 25,808.9 1,275.3 1,276.9 2,552.2 49,940.7 264 252Forecast2014 12,951.3 8,668.2 14,172.4 12,001.5 26,173.8 1,275.3 1,276.9 2,552.2 50,345.5 264 2522015 13,298.6 8,767.9 14,237.4 12,052.2 26,289.6 1,275.3 1,276.9 2,552.2 50,908.2 264 2522016 13,625.9 8,878.2 14,303.0 12,103.4 26,406.3 1,275.3 1,276.9 2,552.1 51,462.6 264 2522017 13,978.7 8,988.7 14,369.1 12,155.0 26,524.1 1,275.2 1,276.9 2,552.1 52,043.6 264 2522018 14,339.3 9,102.9 14,435.9 12,207.1 26,643.0 1,275.2 1,276.9 2,552.1 52,637.2 264 2522019 14,711.2 9,209.0 14,503.2 12,259.6 26,762.9 1,275.2 1,276.9 2,552.1 53,235.2 264 2522020 15,079.5 9,298.3 14,571.2 12,312.7 26,883.9 1,275.2 1,276.9 2,552.1 53,813.7 264 2522021 15,421.8 9,357.9 14,639.8 12,366.2 27,006.0 1,275.2 1,276.9 2,552.1 54,337.8 264 2522022 15,808.2 9,366.6 14,709.0 12,420.2 27,129.2 1,275.2 1,276.9 2,552.0 54,856.1 264 2522023 16,266.7 9,317.4 14,778.8 12,474.7 27,253.5 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,552.0 55,389.7 264 2522024 16,762.2 9,256.5 14,849.3 12,529.7 27,379.0 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,552.0 55,949.8 264 2522025 17,313.1 9,145.1 14,920.4 12,585.2 27,505.6 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,552.0 56,515.9 264 2522026 17,881.0 9,015.7 14,992.2 12,641.2 27,633.4 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,552.0 57,082.1 264 2522027 18,558.2 8,788.1 15,064.7 12,697.7 27,762.4 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,552.0 57,660.7 264 2522028 19,282.9 8,526.7 15,137.8 12,754.8 27,892.6 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,552.0 58,254.2 264 2522029 19,927.1 8,353.8 15,211.6 12,812.3 28,024.0 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,551.9 58,856.8 264 2522030 20,564.1 8,208.0 15,286.1 12,870.5 28,156.6 1,275.0 1,276.9 2,551.9 59,480.6 264 2522031 20,996.0 8,253.5 15,361.4 12,929.1 28,290.5 1,275.0 1,276.9 2,551.9 60,091.8 264 2522032 21,369.8 8,358.9 15,437.3 12,988.3 28,425.6 1,275.0 1,276.9 2,551.9 60,706.2 264 2522033 21,742.4 8,465.5 15,513.9 13,048.1 28,562.0 1,275.0 1,276.9 2,551.9 61,321.8 264 2522034 22,110.4 8,570.3 15,591.3 13,108.4 28,699.8 1,275.0 1,276.9 2,551.9 61,932.4 264 252Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -1.3% -1.5% -3.6% -2.9% -3.3% -0.9% -1.0% -0.9% -2.4%2013-14 1.4% -1.5% 0.4% 2.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%2013-23 2.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%2013-34 2.6% -0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTSWITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICEFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

124TABLE 33(In Thousands)FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERALYEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTALHistorical2000 16,395.0 11,197.7 20,799.2 3,466.9 51,858.82006 13,963.3 12,035.7 17,005.3 2,669.9 45,674.22007 14,366.0 11,675.8 16,747.4 2,498.7 45,288.02008 14,443.0 11,048.3 15,763.0 2,399.5 43,653.82009 13,302.3 9,622.8 14,151.1 2,398.8 39,474.92010 13,174.3 9,511.3 13,863.6 2,437.5 38,986.72011 13,068.0 9,349.4 13,503.1 2,374.6 38,295.22012 13,045.1 8,977.0 13,423.6 2,332.2 37,778.02013E 12,913.6 8,797.5 13,047.7 2,225.2 36,983.9Forecast2014 13,089.0 8,645.3 13,026.9 2,225.1 36,986.42015 13,437.3 8,748.2 13,119.7 2,225.1 37,530.22016 13,765.3 8,861.8 13,212.1 2,225.0 38,064.22017 14,119.0 8,976.2 13,307.3 2,225.0 38,627.52018 14,481.0 9,094.9 13,404.0 2,225.0 39,204.92019 14,854.4 9,205.0 13,501.5 2,224.9 39,785.92020 15,223.8 9,296.1 13,597.5 2,224.9 40,342.32021 15,566.8 9,353.9 13,688.9 2,224.8 40,834.52022 15,953.7 9,356.4 13,779.9 2,224.8 41,314.82023 16,413.2 9,296.5 13,872.3 2,224.8 41,806.82024 16,909.7 9,224.2 13,967.3 2,224.7 42,326.02025 17,461.4 9,097.1 14,062.9 2,224.7 42,846.12026 18,029.8 8,950.7 14,158.9 2,224.6 43,364.02027 18,707.4 8,698.1 14,255.6 2,224.6 43,885.72028 19,432.4 8,408.8 14,353.8 2,224.6 44,419.62029 20,077.2 8,215.2 14,453.9 2,224.5 44,970.82030 20,715.0 8,051.4 14,556.4 2,224.5 45,547.32031 21,148.2 8,093.9 14,659.8 2,224.4 46,126.32032 21,523.6 8,200.8 14,764.3 2,224.4 46,713.02033 21,897.9 8,308.6 14,869.3 2,224.4 47,300.12034 22,267.6 8,414.0 14,974.4 2,224.3 47,880.3Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -1.8% -1.8% -3.5% -3.4% -2.6%2013-14 1.4% -1.7% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0%2013-23 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 1.2%2013-34 2.6% -0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 1.2%* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONSFAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034

125TABLE 34(In Thousands)IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLEDFISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERALYEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTALHistorical2000 24,987.0 8,100.9 8,744.3 4,192.5 46,024.82006 24,394.5 9,436.7 8,197.0 4,149.7 46,177.82007 25,006.2 9,652.9 8,294.3 3,803.3 46,756.72008 23,895.3 10,179.0 7,670.7 3,649.2 45,394.12009 22,406.8 8,561.8 6,331.8 2,993.0 40,293.52010 22,341.5 8,623.8 6,550.3 2,982.2 40,497.82011 23,431.7 9,010.4 6,557.3 2,227.6 41,227.12012 23,650.9 8,932.1 6,472.1 1,859.9 40,915.12013E 23,181.1 8,672.7 6,439.1 1,675.6 39,968.5Forecast2014 23,583.8 8,561.0 6,397.3 1,675.6 40,217.82015 24,221.5 8,571.7 6,443.5 1,675.6 40,912.32016 24,905.0 8,597.4 6,481.8 1,675.6 41,659.82017 25,602.0 8,636.0 6,535.6 1,675.6 42,449.22018 26,308.3 8,705.3 6,591.2 1,675.6 43,280.42019 27,021.6 8,777.8 6,650.7 1,675.6 44,125.72020 27,718.7 8,853.4 6,705.7 1,675.6 44,953.42021 28,364.9 8,921.4 6,749.8 1,675.6 45,711.72022 29,000.0 8,991.2 6,790.7 1,675.6 46,457.62023 29,642.4 9,066.0 6,832.3 1,675.6 47,216.42024 30,308.5 9,145.1 6,877.5 1,675.6 48,006.72025 30,973.2 9,228.0 6,922.9 1,675.6 48,799.72026 31,618.4 9,328.7 6,967.2 1,675.6 49,589.92027 32,257.9 9,440.4 7,013.8 1,675.6 50,387.72028 32,909.4 9,552.9 7,062.1 1,675.6 51,199.92029 33,578.6 9,667.6 7,113.0 1,675.6 52,034.92030 34,268.7 9,788.6 7,169.5 1,675.6 52,902.42031 34,959.1 9,916.9 7,225.4 1,675.6 53,777.02032 35,659.7 10,045.7 7,284.6 1,675.6 54,665.72033 36,362.1 10,177.2 7,344.4 1,675.6 55,559.32034 37,062.2 10,305.6 7,403.0 1,675.6 56,446.4Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -0.6% 0.5% -2.3% -6.8% -1.1%2013-14 1.7% -1.3% -0.6% 0.0% 0.6%2013-23 2.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 1.7%2013-34 2.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 1.7%* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLEDAT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS