# Vocational Strawman

December 2015

Draft 1

# Overview

Draft 2 

##  

# Recommending primar y v ocational v ehicle pr ogram to ha ve thr ee composite test cycles & thr ee w eight class gr oups

 

## Regional,

Multipurpose
, Urban;

HHD
, MHD
, LHD

 

# Most technolog y will ha ve differ ent eff

ectiv eness ove r the diff er ent cycles,

a s modeled in GEM.

 

# Te chnolog y pr ojected at feasible adoption rates.

 

# Recommending unique standar ds f or each of 7 v ehicle types:

 

## Motor home
, Inter city bus, School bus,

Tr ansit bus,

Refuse truck,

Cement mix er , Emergency v ehicle

 

## Simplified pr ogram f

or these v ehicles ma

y not ha ve as man y segments or

we ight classes:

if driv etrain not in GEM, less sensitiv e to test cycle

 

## Option to meet primar y standar ds, m ay be a non

- GEM tech option.

# NREL’s Segmentation Analysis

Tw o distinct clusters w er e identified: o ne with fewe r stops and higher av g speeds,

other with

mor e stops and lo we r av g speeds. A thir d exhibits characteristics of each: mu ltimodal ve hicles.

Repr esentativ e trips we re rank ed by multivariate distance fr om cluster centr oid.

The DRIVE tool generated a single

re pr esentativ e driv e cycle for each cluster using the 50 most
re pr esentativ e trips fr om each cluster

.

Draft 5

# Key Cycle Metrics

Draft 4 

## • 

# Aer odynamic speed

• 

# Characteristic acceleration

• 

# Pe rc ent of miles accum ulated at speeds below 55 mph

• 

# Pe rc ent of cycle time running at zer o s peed

• 

# Number of stops per mile

• 

# Ave rage driving s peed

• 

# Maxim um driving speed

• 

# Standar d de viation of driving speed

# Mileage Accumulation Breakdown

**0.00 2.00**  **4.00 6.00**  **8.00 10.00**  **12.00 14.00**  **16.00 P** **e r** **c e** **n t** **a g** **e o** **f T** **o t** **a l** **M i** **l e** **a g** **e A** **c c** **u m** **u l** **a t** **e d**  

## Mileag **e Accumulation Dis**  **tribution fo**  **r Cluster 1: Low Speed** 

**FDNA 1 MOVES 1** 

Draft 7

# Mileage Accumulation Breakdown

**0.00 2.00**  **4.00 6.00**  **8.00 10.00**  **12.00 14.00**  **16.00 18.00**  **20.00 P** **e r** **c e** **n t** **a g** **e o** **f T** **o t** **a l** **M i** **l e** **a g** **e A** **c c** **u m** **u l** **a t** **e d**  

## Mileag **e Accumulation Dis**  **tribution fo**  **r Cluster 2: Multi** 

**- modal** 

**FDNA 2 MOVES 2** 

Draft 8

# Mileage Accumulation Breakdown

**0.00 5.00**  **10.00 15.00**  **20.00 25.00**  **30.00 35.00**  **40.00 45.00**  **50.00 P** **e r** **c e** **n t** **a g** **e o** **f T** **o t** **a l** **M i** **l e** **a g** **e A** **c c** **u m** **u l** **a t** **e d**  

## Mileag **e Accumulation Dis**  **tribution fo**  **r Cluster 3: High** 

**- speed** 

**FDNA 3 MOVES 3** 

Draft 9

# Possible Composite Test Cycle Revisions

Draft 8 

### Subcategor **y Tr**  **ansient 55**  **mph Cruise**  **65 mph** 

**Cruise Idle** 

NPRM Regional 50 28 22 10

Multi

- Purpose 82 15 3 15
Urban 94 6 0 20

% of miles < 50 mph % of miles 50

-

60 mph % of miles >

60 mph % of time

at 0 mph

NREL Findings (December) High Speed

Cluster 20 24 56 24

Multimodal Cluster 54 29 17 52

Low Speed Cluster 92 7 1 47



## Notes: * Da y Cab Tr actors ha

ve 19% w eighting of transient cycle * W eightings w ould change if used differ ent speed brack ets

# Chassis Parameters for Logistic Regression

Draft 9 

## • 

# Tw o parameters we re obser ve d to be highly significant pr edictors of cluster membership:

• 

# Engine speed at 55 mph

• 

# Engine speed at 65 mph

• 

# Thr ee parameters w er e obser ve d to ha ve some minor significance as pr edictors:

• 

# Con ve ntional driv etrain (vs h ybrid)

• 

# Fuel type

• 

# Tr ansmission type (A

T vs AMT)

• 

# Others w er e obser ve d to ha ve no bearing on pr ediction of cluster membership at all:

• 

# Ve hicle we ight class

# Vocational MOVES Population Allocation

Draft 10 **Subcategor y**  **Long**

**Haul Short** 

**Haul Inter**  **city**

**Bus Motor** 

**Home School** 

**Bus Tr**  **ansit**

**Bus Refuse** 

**Tr uck** 
% of To tal P op

. 3% 66% 0.2% 18% 8.5% 1% 3% Regional 100 35 100 100 0 0 0

Multi

- Purpose 0 60 0 0 100 75 0

Urban 0 5 0 0 0 25 100

**Public Comments**  Regional 100 5 100 100 0 0 0

Multi

- Purpose 0 90 0 0 ? 0 ?

Urban 0 5 0 0 0 ? ? 

## N P R M

**NREL ’s**  **Pr edictiv**  **e M odel**  High

- Speed ? 20 ? ? 0 0 0

Multi

- Modal 0 10 0 0 ? 0 0

Slow

- Speed 0 70 0 0 0 ? ?

# NREL Synthetic Transient Cycle

Draft 11 

## Max speed 52 mph,

about 12 minutes total cycle duration. 0 10 20 30 40 50 601173349658197113129145161177193209225241257273289305321337353369385401417433449465481497513529545561577593609625641657673689705721**S p** **e e** **d (** **m p** **h )** 

**Time (s)** 

### EP **A Low Speed T ra**  **ns ient** 

# Statistical C omparison of Cycles

Draft 12 **Cycle Aerodynamic** 

**Speed Characteristic** 

**Accel**

**. % Miles** 

**accum <**  **55 mph**  **% Cycle** 

**Time at Zero Speed**  **# Stops P**  **er**

**Mile Average** 

**Driving Speed**  **Maximum**

**Driving Speed**  **Std. De** 

**v. Driving**  **Speed**

ARB Tr ansient 43.36 0.49 100 15.57 1.4 18.2 47.5 13.38

Wo rld Harmonized Ve hicle Cycle 61 0.28 100 13.61 1.07 25.98 54.56 19.03

Japanese HD Tr ansient (JPJE05) 51.31 0.4 100 25.19 1.62 22.7 54.43 15.94
European HD Te st Cycle (FIGE) 68.71 0.23 94.46 0 0 36.65 56.61 17.83

NREL Tr ansient Cycle 50.99 0.59 100 21.69 2.98 21.31 51.67 16.16

NREL Ta rget Statistics: Urban Segment 50.59 0.55 96.45 47.30 1.71 22.62 62.39 13.74

NREL Ta rget Statistics: Multipurpose Segment 69.14 0.46 64.64 52.40 0.76 33.64 66.85 19.25

NREL Ta rget Statistics: Regional Segment 83.40 0.29 26.47 24.50 0.21 48.57 70.81 19.17

# Appendix

Other NREL Material

Draft 13

# Fleet DNA Vehicles with Engine Data

**Vo cation**  **Description Number of**  **Ve hicle**  **Be ve**  **rag e Deliv**  **er y**  **40 Concr**  **ete 3**  **Dr ay**  **age 16**  **Dump T ru**  **ck 4**  **Fo od Deliv**  **er y**  **44 Fr**  **eight 22**  **LINEHA UL**  **73 Linen Deliv**  **er y**  **30 Local Deliv**  **er y**  **7 Long Haul**  **12 Mass T**  **ra nsit**  **27 Pa**  **rc el Deliv**  **er y**  **117 Re**  **frigera ted T**  **ru ck**  **6 Re**  **fuse Pickup 53**  **REGIONAL HA UL**  **1 School Bus**  **8 Snow Plow**  **9 Ta**  **nk er**  **25 Te**  **lecom 17**  **To wing**  **3 Tr**  **ansfer tr**  **uck 14**  **Utility 23**  **War ehouse Deliv**  **er y**  **10 TOT**  **AL 322**  **564**

# Fleet DNA vs MOVES Populations

**Ve hicle**  **Ty pe**  **MO VES**  **(% of Ve**  **hicles) Fleet**  **DNA**

**(% of**  **Ve hicles,** 

**( #))**  **Fleet DNA** 

**Resampled to**  **Match MO** 

**VES (% (#))** 
Short Haul 66 59 (631) 84 (631)

School Bus 8.5 24 (254) 11 (82)

Refuse 3 5 (57) 4 (29)

Tr ansit Bus 1 2 (23) 1 (9)

Other* 21.5 10 (108) 0

To tal Number (500,000) (1,073) (751)



### • In MO VES,

Other = Long haul straight trucks, motor homes,

inter city buses

• In Fleet DNA,

Other = v ocational tractors, v ehicles on pr evious slide

Draft 17

# NREL’s Logistic Regression model: Predicting Cluster Membership

Draft 16 Logistic r egr ession is a method of constructing the best fitting model to describe the r elationship betw een the dichotomous characteristic of inter est (dependent variable = r esponse or outcome variable) and a set of independent (pr edictor or explanator y) variables.
**In this**  **logistic re**  **gr ession,**  **t he dependent**  **variable was**  **binar y**  **or dichotomous, i**  **.e .**  **it only contains**  **data coded as 1 (TR UE,**  **success ,**  **etc**

**. )**  **or 0 (F ALSE,** 

**failur e**  **, etc**  **.).**

# Comparison of Source Cycle Cluster Data

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70**% o** **f D** **i s** **t a** **n c** **e A** **c c** **u m** **u l** **a t** **e d** **B e** **l o** **w 5** **5 m** **p h** 

**% of Time Accumulated at Zero Speed** 

## Ze **ro Speed**  **Time (%) vs Distance Accumulated Below 55 mph** 

Cluster 3-1 Cluster 3-2 Cluster 3-3 Cluster 3-1 MOVES Cluster 3-2 MOVES Cluster 3-3 MOVES

Draft 19

# Comparison of Source Cycle Cluster Data

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60**K i** **n e** **t i** **c I** **n t** **e n** **s i** **t y** **( 1** **/ m** **i l** **e )** 

**Average Driving Speed (mph)**



## Av **er ag**  **e Driving Speed vs. Kinetic Intensity** 

Cluster 3-1 Cluster 3-2 Cluster 3-3 Cluster 3-1 MOVES Cluster 3-2 MOVES Cluster 3-3 MOVES

Draft 20

# Comparison of Source Cycle Cluster Data

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24**S t** **o p** **s p** **e r** **M i** **l i** **e**

**Standard Deviation of Speed (mph)**



## Standar **d Deviation of Speed vs. Stops Per Mile** 

Cluster 3-1 Cluster 3-2 Cluster 3-3 Cluster 3-1 MOVES Cluster 3-2 MOVES Cluster 3-3 MOVES

Draft 21