# I<// 

# E
US. Department of Energy June 1999 

### Life-Cycle Costs and Payback Periods for Clothes Washers Introduction The life-cycle cost (LCC) spread sheet is used to analyze the economic impacts ofpossible standards on individual consumers. The effect of standards on individual consumers includes a change in operating expense (usually decreased) and a change in purchase price (usually increased). This report describes results obtained after making changes to the LCC spreadsheet model and revising some inputs, as recommended in comments received after the publication of the Supplemental Advance Notice ofProposed Ruleinaking (ANOPR). 63 FR 64344. There are two basic outputs from this analysis: • Distributions of "LCC Difference" (i.e., the difference between the baseline LCC to the LCC for a given standard level) for each standard level. The baseline LCC is also discussed in this report, as a reference against which to compare the relative differences in LCC due to higher efficiency standards. The LCC Difference is evaluated using consumer marginal energy prices. • Distributions ofpayback periods for each standard level. Table 1 below summarizes the inputs used in the Supplemental ANOPR analysis and the changes made for the Notice ofProposed Rulemaking (NOPR) analysis. The major changes are as follows: • Marginal energy prices were substituted for average prices. Households for which marginal energy prices could not be calculated were eliminated, resulting in a reduction of approximately 10% ofthe households used from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). . • Current (1998) prices and projected escalation rates were added for rural water and wastewater to the previous estimates for urban customers. The revised analysis divided water use into categories ofurban, rural with water and wastewater utilities, rural with water utility service and septic tank, and individual well with septic tank. • Liquid petroleum gas (i.e., LPG or propane) was added as a water heater fuel type. • Annual Energy Outlook 1999 (AE099) forecasts replaced AE098 energy price forecasts for electricity, gas and oil.
1• The extrapolation method for projecting the AEO energy prices from 2020 to 2030 was changed. (The AEO contains energy prices projections to the year 2020.) We are using the approach EIA uses to forecast fuel prices for the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP). • Manufacturer markups were changed from a triangular distribution with endpoints of 1.00 to 1.350 with a mean of 1.175, to a rectangular distribution with a different range for each standard level. The overall minimum and maximum markups were 0.54 and 1.48. (See Manufacturer Impact Analysis for details).

2T bl 1 Ch 

### a e h LCC A I . 

## * anges mt e na ysIS Parameter Supplemental ANOPR NOPR Start Year ( Effective Date of Standard) 2003 Same Retail Prices: Baseline Clothes Washer Retail Price- $421 including Same tax; from retail price survey Lifetime Distribution (12
- 17 years) Same Cycles Per Year Distribution from RECS Same database (207
- 645) Energy Price Projections AEO 1998 reference case to AE01999 reference, high & low cases the year 2020, with to the year 2020, with extrapolations to extrapolations to the year the year 2030 2030 Water Price Urban ($0.00 to $7.84 per Urban 0
- $7.98 1000 gallons) Rural 0
- $7.98 Rural (no sewer) 0
- $f54 Individual well 2.61 kWh/1000 gals. Ave. rate= $3.18 per 1000 Ave. rate= $2.66 per 1000 gals. gals Annual Real Change in Water and 0 percent Urban = 3.04% Sewer Cost (Water Price Projections) (high 5.43%, low 0.55%) Rural = 3.04%

(high 5.43%, low 0.55%) Rural with septic = 0.67%

(high 2.95%, low -2.88%) Individual well (electricity price escalation) Discount Rate Distribution (O
- 15 percent) Same Energy Consumption Per Cycle AHAMdata Same Variation in Household Energy Prices, 1993 RECS data , Marginal prices derived from 1993 Energy Use, and Water Heater Shares RECS data and adjusted to 1997 prices Retail Markup 1.4 1.4 Manufacturer Markup Min. 1.000 Range: varies with standard level Mean 1.175 Max. 1.350 Distribution: triangular Distribution: rectangular 

## * All prices and costs are shown in 1997 dollars.

3

### Results Summary Uncertainty Because we are using a Monte Carlo method ofanalysis (i.e. random sampling from distributions), small variations in results are expected due to differences in which RECS houses were sampled. The results in this report are based on 10,000 samples per Monte Carlo run. 

### Life-Cycle Cost andDifference in Life-Cycle Cost The baseline LCC is based on average energy prices from each RECS household, consistent with the household energy bill. The energy and LCC savings are evaluated using consumer marginal energy prices. Figure 1 below shows the frequency distribution for the baseline LCC (assuming AEO reference case, U.S. mix offuels for water heaters and clothes dryers, and average escalation rate for water prices). Forecast: Baseline LCC

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 88 Outliers .020·_,..------;-------------------------.. 196

... ··························································································-······················· 147

## -~ 

# -**~**

. .,Q

O:;I .,Q Q
..... .010 ·············-····· C"D·

## 98.00~1 :::i. 

### c.. .005 ············· .000 $500 $1,375 $2,250 $ 

### Figure 1 Life Cycle Cost Baseline Frequency Distribution M:inimum 

## = $512 Median 

## =$1,513 Mean 

## =$1,675

### ~i 49.00
$3,125 $4,000 

### Maximum 

## =$5,790 Different households have different baseline LCCs, based upon a number offactors including the number ofpeople in the home, the number ofloads oflaundry washed per week, the prices of e:nergy and water, and the price paid to buy a clothes washer. For the most likely scenario, the rate ofchange in future energy prices in the LCC and payback imalyses are from the AEO reference case. To bound the analysis we use the high and low 4economic growth scenarios from the same source, the EIA fuel price forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook 

### 1999 (AE099). The high growth represents higher economic growth, increasing the demand for fuel and therefore increasing the price offuel over the reference case. Similarly, the low growth fuel assumes a slower escalation offuel prices. At the same time, we also estimated high and low scenarios for future water prices. Table 2 shows the reference case LCC results. Results are summarized for the change in LCC from the baseline by percentile groupings (i.e., percentile ofthe distribution ofresults). The mean mid the percent ofLCCs that are reduced for each standard level are also shown. Tables 3 and 4 show the results for high and low growth scenarios.**I~xample:** For a 10% Increase in Efficiency Level (row 2), Table 2 shows that the maxinlum (zero percentile column) change in LCC is savings of$242. (Negative values are net savings.) For 

### 90% ofthe cases studied 

### (90th percentile), the change in LCC is savings of $14 or more. The largest increase in LCC is $17 

### (lOOth percentile). The mean change in LCC is a net savings of $43. The last column shows that 

### 99% ofthe sample have reduced LCC (i.e., change in LCC less than or equal to zero). 

### T bl 2 S .a e ummaryo fLCC R It 

### AEO ti 

### esu s- re erence Percent Change in LCC from Baseline Percent Increase Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results with LCC in (values in 1997$) Less than Efficiency Baseline

Level 0 10 25 50 75 90 100 Mean

5 $(101) $ (34) $ (25) $ (17) 5(11) $(7) $ (1) $(19) 100% 10 $ (242) $ (80) $ (54) $ (36) 5(23) 5(14) $ 17 $(43) 99% 15 $(474) $(132) $ (87) $ (54) 5(31) 5(14) $ 75 $(65) 95% 20 $ (534) $(153) $ (96) $ (53) S(21) $18 $163**$(6~)** 85% 25 S{l,718) $(490) $ (315) $(169) 9:59) . $17 $189 9:211) 87% 35 S(2,827) $(692) $ (424) $(203) 5(38) $114 $675 $'.253) 80% 40 3(2,453) $(690) $ (428) $(206) 9(41) $110 $666**~252)** 81% 45 S(2,402) $(623) $ (360) $(138) $46 $207 $710 S{183) 70% 50 S{2,206) $(647) $ (372) $(139) $40 $207 $657 S{l91) 70%



### 5

### 1r 

### bl 3 

# s a e ummary o f 

### LCC R l AEO h. h esu ts- 121 

### 2rowth Percent Change in LCC from Baseline Percent Increase Shown by Percentiles ofthe Distribution of Results with LCC in (values in 1997$) Less than Efficiency Baseline

Level 0 10 25 50 75 90 100 Mean

5 $ (106) $ (39) $ (28) $ (19) S(13) $(9) $ (1) $(22) 100% 10 $ (265) $ (86) $ (60) $ (39) S(25) S(16) $ II $(46) 99% 15 $(518) $(142) $ (92) $ (57) S(34) S(l6) $ 75 $(69) 96% 20 $(600) $(161) $ (103) $ (57) S(23) $ 16 $ 159 $(67) 86% 25 3{1,978) $(603) $ (394) $(213) S{91) $ 0 $186 S{269) 90% 35 3{2,932) $(850) $ (528) $(272) S{82) $68 $655 S(339) 85% 40 3{2,837) $(852) $ (524) $(265) S{78) $71 $676 S(334) '84% 45 3{2,887) $(771) $ (459) $(206) $ 0 $170 $695 S{264) 75% 50 3{3,090) $(790) $ (468) $(203) $(2) $171 $664 5(270) 75% 

### Table 4 Summary ofLCC Results
- AEO low growth Percent Change in LCC from Baseline Percent Increase Shown by Percentiles ofthe Distribution of Results with LCC Less in (values in 1997$) than Baseline Efficiency Level ' 0 10 25 50 75 90 100 Mean 5 $ (96) $ (30) $ (22) $ (15) S(IO) $(7) $ 0 $(17) 100% 10 $(246) $ (71) $ (49) $ (32) 

# . S{21)**~13)** . $ 19 $(38) 99% 15 $(441) $(124) $ (81) $ (49) 3(29) . 3(12) $ 83 $(60) 95% 20 $(461) $(136) $ (86) $ (47) S(l 7) $20 $160 $(66) 84% 25 S(l,661) $(394) $ (248) $(128) 3{31) $38 $190 $'.159) 82% 35 3{2,496) $(533) $ (319) $(138) $(3) $148 $688 S(l 72) 75% 40 S(l,764) $(545) $ (330) $(144) $(1) $150 $659 S(l 75) 75% 45 S(l,819) $(504) $ (286) $ (86) $86 $243 $677 S(l 17) 63% 50 S(l ,849) $(507) $ (276) $ (82) $ 81 $228 $725 S(l 18) 63%
6Figure 2 compares the LCC results for reference, high and low growth cases. For efficiency lc:vels up to 20%, there is very little difference between the three growth scenarios.

l) l) ..J c c 0 

# ... u ::I "C Cl> 1et:: ns Cl c ·:;: ns :I:: 

## .... c Cl> u 

## ... Cl> ll.. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5 • • •NOPR, High -0-NOPR, Reference • II ·NOPR, Low

10 15 20 25 35 40 Percent Efficiency Level Improvement 45 50 Fllgure 

### 2 Consumers Having LCC Savings for Reference, High and Low Growth Scenarios



### 70 0 ..J c ·c 0 :;::; CJ 

# = "C GJ 0:: cu CD c ·:;: cu :::c 

# - c GJ CJ 

## ... GJ a. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5 • • •ANOPR -0-NOPR, Reference

10 15 20 25 35 Percent Efficiency Level Improvement40**]~igure** 

### 3 : Comparison ofANOPR and NOPR Life-Cycle Cost Results 45 50
Figure 3 is a comparison (before and after changes were made to the Supplemental ANOPR analysis) ofthe percent ofhouseholds having a lower LCC for each efficiency increase level.. The input changes made to the LCC spreadsheet resulted in up to approximately a 5 percent reduction in households having a LCC savings, for the case ofa 50 percent improvement in the dficiency level. 

### Payback Period Simple payback periods (ratio ofincrease in purchase price to decrease in annual operating c::xpense) were calculated using the same distributions as for the LCC analysis. The payback is calculated based on the year the standard takes effect, in this case the year 2003. (Because this is a simple payback, washer lifetime, energy prices beyond the year 2003, and discount rates are not used.) Payback periods were determined for three scenarios: reference, and high and low growth energy price projections with corresponding average, high and low water prices and are shown in llables 4, 5, and 6, respectively. 

### 8

### 1[' bl 4 

# s a e ummaryof 

### P b k P . d R It AEO ti 

### ay. ac er10 esu s- re erence Percent Payback Period in Years Improvement in .. Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution ofResults Efficiency Level 0% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 100% Mean

5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 0.1 IO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 27.8 0.6 15 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 4.5 37.0 l.5 20 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 5.5 l l.5 61.4 3.9 25 0.0 0.9 2.1 4.l 6.7 10.0 51.5 5.0 35 0.8 2.3 3.2 4.9 8.1 13.0 79.6 6.7 40 0.8 2.3 3.2 4.9 7.9 12.8 110.9 6.6 45 0.8 2.8 4.2 6.6 10.7 15.9 102.6 8.3 50 1.2 3.0 4.4 6.8 10.5 15.6 95.8 8.3 

### T bl 5 S



### a e ummaryof 

### P b k P . d R 

### ay1 ac eno esu ts - AEOh" h 1g1 

### -erowth Percent Payback Period in Years Improvement in Shown by Percentiles ofthe Distribution ofResults Efficiency Level 0% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 100% Mean

5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.0 0.1 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 19.2 0.6 15 0.0 0.0 0.1 0;2 0.6 4.4 42.5 1.4 20 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 5.5 11.6 .56.5 3.9 25 0.0 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.3 9.4 69.7 4.7 35 0.7 2.2 3.0 4.7 7.5 11.9 76.0 6.2 40 0.9 2.2 3.1 4.7 7.5 12.2 77.7 6.3 45 0.9 2.6 3.9 6.2 10.1 15.3 113.9 7.9 50 0.9 2.9 4.1 6.4 10.0 14.8 84.5 7.9
9

### T bl 6 S a e ummaryo f 

### P b k P . d R It AEO I ay1 ac eno esu s - ow e:rowth ; Percent Payback Period in Years Improvement in Shown by Percentiles ofthe Distribution of Results Efficiency Level 0% 10% 25% 50%. 75% 90% 100% Mean

5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.4 0.1 IO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 16.8 0.6 15 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 4.7 37.2 1.5 20 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 5.8 11.8 84.8 4.0 25 0.0 0.9 2.2 4.4 7.2 10.7 57.7 5.3 35 0.9 2.5 3.5 5.3 8.6 13.7 66.5 7.1 40 0.9 2.5 3.5 5.2 8.4 13.5 98.8 7.0 45 0.9 2.9 4.3 6.9 11.2 17.1 74.l 8.8 50 1.2 3.3 4.7 7.2 11.0 16.4 ll4.9 8.8

10Figure 4 below shows the mean payback periods for each standard level (for reference, high and low growth cases). The average lifetime for a clothes washer is 14 years.

12

c 'tJ 0 8 ·.:: Cl) a.. .x CJ**~** 6 >- C'G a.. c 

## m 4 :iiE 2

5 .. • •NOPR, High -0-NOPR, Reference • 1' •NOPR, Low

10 15 20 25 35 Percent Efficiency Level Improvement 40 

### Figure 4 Payback Periods for Reference, High and Low Growth Scenarios

11 - - A.

45 50Figure 5 compares mean payback periods as calculated using Supplemental ANOPR and updated (NOPR) data. The reference case scenario is used in both cases. Payback periods increased by using the updated inputs for the analysis.

12 I!? ca 10 CJ) 

### >- c: "C .2 8 

## ... CJ) a.. .ll:: (J**~** 6 >. ca a.. c: 

## m 4**~** 2

5**~ANOPR**

.. lllt ·NOPR, Reference

,,II • -

10 15 20 25 35 40 Percent Efficiency Level**~mprovement** 

### Figure 5 Comparison ofANOPR and NOPR Payback Period Results DetailedResults 

### ,...11---·

45 50

Detailed LCC 

### frequency and 

### cumulative charts for all standard levels are attached to this report. Charts are provided for scenarios of low, reference and high growth. The low growth LCC scenario includes figures 6 to 23; AEO reference growth scenario includes figures 24 to 41; and the high growth scenario includes figures 42 to 59. Payback Periods 

### frequency charts are also provided and are labeled as follows: low growth, figures 60 to 68; reference growth, figures 69 to 77; and high growth, figures 78 to 86.



### 12

### 185 Outliers .026_,--------------------=---------,_ 256 

### ·10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart
.019 .......................................................................................... . .013 ......................... u ..................................................... .006 ($45) ($34) ($23) $ ........................ - 192

.................... - 128

................ 64 ($11) 

### Figure 6 5°/o Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### 185 Outliers**..r---------------:-----~--:-:-:=-::;----,...** 10000 

### 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 1.000

.750

### ~~ 

# ··- .ic:::i .500 I" .J::i I:) 

# , 

# ... .250 

### Cl. 

### ·····················································································-·················



### ......................................................................................

# - ....

($45) ($34) ($23) $ ($11) 0**Fi~:ure** 

### 7 5% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

13

### 10,000 Trials .035 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 119 Outliers 349

### ~ 

# ·- 

# - ·- .ci**~** .ci Cl t... 

## c. .026 .017 .009 ($88) ($50) $25 Certainty is 99.13% from -Infinity to $0 $ 261.7 

## .,,1 -.: t'I 174.5**~** t'I 

## =' 87.25

### ~
Pigure 8 10% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences


### Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 119 Outliers



# - ·- .ci**~** .ci 

## e t... 

## c.**1.000~--------------..--------==:-:---...** 10000 .750 ···············································································-············· .500 ···············································································-·· .250 .......................................................................... .000**~** ($125) ($88) ($50) $25 Certainty is 99.13% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Ji'igure 9 10% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

14

### 191 Outliers**.038..r-~~~~~~~~~~~~-:-~~~~~~~~---,_** 378 

### 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart**~** 

# ·- 

# - .028 .019 .009 ..............................................................................

# _. ................................................... - 283.5

.............................................. 189

......................................... - 94.5 ($200) ($131) ($63) $6 $75 Certainty is 94.57% from -Infinity to $0 $ I 

### -n·


### ...... ! n. ! ....c:i 

### ! 

## c: ! n.: ::I ;

# ~I
F'igure 10 15% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 1.000

.750

## ~ 

# - 

# ·- .c .500 

# = -= Q 

## .... .250 

# c.. .......................................................................................



## ...............................................................................1 ..

($200) ($131) ($63) $6 Certainty is 94.57% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### 191 Outliers 10000



### - 0 $75 

# .,, 

# - n .Cl 

### c n ::.**~·**


### F'igure 11 15% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

15

### 10,000 Trials .038 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 135 Outliers

- 382 .**~·** 

# - ·- ..Q**~** ..Q 0 

# ... a. .029 ................................................................. .019 .010**.ooo....__~~** 

## ...............**~** ($250) ,($150) ($50) ............................................................. 286.5

·······················································- 191

. ············································ 95.5 $50 $150 Certainty is 83.92% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 12 20% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 135 Outliers 1.000.r-------------.---------------i... 10000

### ~ 

# ·- 

# - ·- ..Q**~** 

### .c 0 

# ... a. .750 ..........................................................................

### _ ......... .500 .250

.000**...L.-_,...~ll&l.l.llJU&Ulj.UU.llUUU** ($250) ($150) ($50) $50 $150 Certainty is 83.92% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 13 20% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences

16

### Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 132 Outliers

# -~ 

# - .025...r-----------------,,,------------,.. 263 .020 ........................................................................................... .013 ..................................................................... . .007 ($700) ($475) ($250) . ................................. 197.2

($25) 

### .,,i -.! C"I :

························-**131.5~!** C"I ' 

## =' 

## !

.................... _ 65.75**~l** I $200 Certainty is 82.11 % from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 14 25% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 132 Outliers 1.000..r----------------.------------=-:,...----,_ 10000



# - ·- .c 00 

### .c 

### e 

# ... c.. .750 .500 .250 

### ········-··················--··--···-··--·······················T············

..........................................................................................t··

0 ($700) ($475) ($250) $200 Certainty is 82.11 % from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Fiigure 15 25% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

17

### 10,000 Trials .035

# -~ 

# - ·- .026 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 110 Outliers 352 264 .Cl .018 ............................................................ ........................................................ - 176 

# = .Cl 0 

# ... Q. .009 .. ············································· 88 ($563) $313 $750 Certainty is 75.03% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 16 35% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences


### Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 110 Outliers 1.000..r------------:--..-----------:-=,---,... 10000



# - ·- .750
..::::::. .500 ...................................................................... 

# = .Cl 0 

# ct ..250

.000**.l.,_~l&UIJl.llqJUUIWU** ($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 Certainty is 75.03% from -Infinity to $0 $ 0 $750 

### Filgure 17 35% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

18

### 10,000 Trials .033

## ~ 

# - ·- .025 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequen_cy Chart 105 Outliers

- 330

··························································· - 247.5 

### .,,i 

# .... ("ti j .Q .017 .................................................... ························································ 165 .=i 

### c: i ni 

### i 

### =: n•· '<; !' 

### co .Q 

## e '- 

# c.. .008 ($563) $313 $750 Certainty is 74.78% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 18 40% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### 110,000 

### Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart**.~** 

# ·- 

# ·- ·- ·= co .1:1 

# = '- 

### Cl. 1.000....-----------:----------:== .750 ·································································-·········· .500 ..................................................................... .250($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 Certainty is 74.78% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### 105 

### Outliers 10000

- 0 $750**Fii~ure** 

### 19 40% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences
19 I

### 10,000 Trials .031 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 109 Outliers 313 .023 ....................................................u ••••••••••••• ···························································- 234.7

# -~ 

# - ·- .Cl «:I .Cl 0 

# ... a. 

# ..,,, ..,: C"D .016 ........................................................ .............................**~**................ - 156.5 

# -g .008

.000 ....._...,.............a&&4-11&& ($1,000) C"D 

## =' .···································- 78.25

### ~ ($563) $313 Certainty is 63.22% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Fiigure 20 45% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### ·10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 1.000...-------------:--------== .750 .......................................................................................

.500 ...........................................................................

.250 .000..L................**.llQ.llllWlllW~** ($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 Certainty is 63.22% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### 109 Outliers 10000

0 $750**Fi:~re** 

### 21 45% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

20

### Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart ·110 Outliers .030...r-------------=----=-------"-------....... 299 .022 ·····················································- 224.2 ""Tl 

## ..., n .015 ·············································· 149.5-= c: 

# .., ::::i .007 ···································- 74.75

### ~ ($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 $750 Certainty is 62.51% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 22 50°/o Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 110 Outliers**1.000..-----------~-.-------------------=---...** 10000 .750 .500 .250 

### ······································································r···········

................................................................................**~:**
.000**j__-~**......... wUJWllJWllli ($1,000) ($563) $313 Certainty is 62.51% from-Infinity to $0 $ $750 

### Figure 23 50% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

21

### 10,000 Trials .025 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart
.018 ················································································ ... .012 ......................................................................... . .006 ($38) ($25) $ ($13) 

### 193 Outliers

- 245

183.7 11 

# ... n 122.5 .Cl 

### c: n :::i

................ - ,61.25**~ ~**  - 0 $0 

### F'igure 24 5% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 193 Outliers 1.000

.750

## ~ 

# - ·- .Q .500 (ti .Q Q 

# ... .250 Q.**~--------------r------==---i..** 10000 

### ····················································································r·················
: 

## ........................................................................................... '!....

($50) ($38) ($25) $ ($13) 0 $0 II 

# - n .Q 

### c n 

# =**~**
Figure 25 5°/o 

### Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences



### 22

### Forecast: LCC Difference ·10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 

### 194 Outliers



### .c**~** ,,Q 0 

# ... 11. .032...------------------:---------... 317 . .024 ........................................................................................ .016 ........................................................................... .008

. 000 .J.._-f111.ll&LILl.U4JLU. ·········································- 237.7 

### "'T'll 

# .... ('II ! 158.5 .Cl i 

### c:: i C"l I ::i 

### !

·································- 19.25

### ~I

I - 0 ($125) ($88) ($50) ($13) Certainty is 99.35% from -Infinity to $0 $ $25 

### Figure 26 10% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### Forecast: LCC Difference 

### 110,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 

### 194 Outliers



# ·- 

# ·- • Cl**~** 

# ·= 0 

# ... IJ. 1.000...---------------..,..----------==,...--,_ 10000 .750 ................................................................................................. .500 ....................................................................................... .250 ................................................................. 

## .ooo Lf&IW1111111Q11UWW ($125) ($88) ($50) ($13) Certainty is 99.35% from -Infinity to $0 $ 0 $25**Fi;~ure** 

### 27 10% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

23

### 10,000 Trials .036 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 164 Outliers 358

# -~ 

# ·- .c (t'I 

### .c 0 

# ... a. .027 268.5 .018 179 . .009 ..................................................... 89.5

.000**~** ($225) ($150) ($75) lDIIllUlllllblmtJOIUJWllllULu1...._,_,**~-** 0 . $75 Certainty is 95.22% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 28 15% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Frequency Chart_ofLCC Differences


### Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 164 Outliers



# - 

# ·- .c OJ:! ,.Q Q 

# ... a.**1.000..r-----------~------------,_** 10000 .750 ........................................................................._ ............ .500 .....................................................:...................

# +. .250 .000**.1--f&&l&a.UW~llllUW** 0 ($225) ($150) ($75) $0 $75 Certainty is 95.22% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Filgure 29 15% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

24

### 10,000 Trials .039 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 89 Outliers 388

### ~ 

# ·- ..c 00 

### ..c c L. 

## c. .029 291 .019 ........................................................................... . ················································· 194 .010 . ·······································- 97 ($188) ($75) $38 $150 Certainty is 84.76% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 30 20o/o Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### ·10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 89 Outliers**.,r-~~~~~~~~~~~-:-~~~~~~~---~-.,_** 10000 1.000

.750



# .**~** ,.ell .500 00 • .c:i Q 

# ... .250 IJ..


### Fi:gure 31 

### ..........................................................................................

................................................................................

($300) ($188) ($75) $38 Certainty is 84.76% from -Infinity to $0 $ 0 $150 

### 20°/o Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences

25

### 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 200 Outliers 246 .025 .018 ································- 184.5

## ~ 

# - ..c .012 123**~** ..c 

## e**~** .006 

## c.. 61.5 .000 ($550) ($300) $200 Certainty is 86.94% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Fiigure 32 25% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### ·10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 200 Outliers 10000 1.000

.750 .500 .250


### Figure 33 

### .....................................................................................

## _ ................



## ......· .................................................................................t..

($800) ($550) ($300) $200 Certainty is 86.94% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### 25°/o Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences



### 26 

# ..,, .... 

# " .Cl 

### c n 

# =**~**

### 10,000 Trials .031 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 133 Outliers 308

# -~ 

# - ·- ..c:l "«:i ..c:l 0 

# ... a. .023 ·····················································- 231 .015 ............................................................. . ·················································· 154 .008 .000**J_~lllWQ.llll** ($1,250) .......................................... 77 ($750) ($250) $250 $750 Certainty is 80.38% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

## -n 

## ..., n ...i::= 

### c n 

# =**~**
Figure 34 35% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### Forecast: LCC Difference 

### ·10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 133 Outliers**1.000...--------------:--------~==,----,..** 10000 .750 ......................................................................._._________.

.500 .......................................................................- .250 .000L.......,....wllQllllllllllU ($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 Certainty is 80.38% from -Infinity to $0 $ 0 $750**Fii~ure** 

### 35 35% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

27

### 10,000 Trials .033 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 100 Outliers 328

### ~ 

# ·- 

# - ·- -= CG 

### .c 0 

# ... a. .025 ····················································· - 246 .016 ......................................................... . ................................................. 164 .008 ............................................ 82

. 000 ...L.--fLLILILUJ1&1.A4U&LL ($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 $750 Certainty is 80.94% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 36 40o/o 

### Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences


### Forecast: LCC Difference ·10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 100 Outliers

,.Q CG ,,Q 

## e 

# ... IJ. 1.ooo.r-----------....----------===-=--...._.10000 .750 .500 .......................................................,.............":" .250 .000**~** ($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 Certainty is 80.94% from -Infinity to $0 $ 0 $750 

### Figure 37 40% 

### Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences



### 28

### 10,000 Trials .030 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 96 Outliers 302 .023 . ················································ 226.5 

### ...,,; -.! ("p I .015 .......................,................................................ 151 

### .Cl!**~i** C"D ! ::i 

### ! .008


### Fiigure38 ·································- 75.5 ($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 $750 Certainty is 69.77% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### 45% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences

### ~l I



### ·10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 96 Outliers 1.000..-------------;-------===---i- 10000 .750 .500 .250


### Figure 39 

### ··--·······················································--··--r········· ·········································································:·

($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 Certainty is 69. 77% from -Infinity to $0 $ $750 

### 45% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Cumulative. Chart ofLCC Differences



### 29

### 10,000 Trials .030 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 106 Outliers

- 302

### ~ 

# ·- 

# - .023 .015 ............................................................. . .000($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 226.5 

### ""T'll -.! ni 151 

### .ca 

# = rri 

## ='

................................ 75.5**~** $750 Certainty is 69.88% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 40 50°/o Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### ·10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 

### 106 Outliers**1.000...r--------------.-------""'.'."'.":'==~** 10000



# ·- 

# ·- ·=**~** 

# ·= 0 

# .... ll. .750 .500 .250 

### ·······································································T········· ·········································································+·

($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 Certainty is 69.88% from -Infinity to $0 $ 0 $750 

### Fi:gure 41 50% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

30

### 10,000 Trials . Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 174 Outliers .02a.r------------------=--------... 284 .021 ............................................................................................................. .014 ................................................................................. .. 

### .007 ($60) ($45) ($30) $ ($15) 

### 213 142 71**~** 

### - 0 $0 

### ..,,; .., ! ('\'Ii .Q! 

### c: ! t'D ! ::i 

### !

## ~! I


### Figure 42 5% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### 174 Outliers**1.000..-----------~-----::--------:=;;--,_** 10000 

### 110,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart



# ·- 

# ·- ·=**~** ,Q Q 

# ... [J. .750 ........................................................................................_ .................



### .500 

### ······················································································+··· .250 ($60) ($45) ($30) $ ($15) 0 $0**Fi1~ure** 

### 43 5% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

31

### 10,000 Trials



# - ·- .c**~** 

### .c 0


## .... 

# c. .034 .025 .017 .008 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart

($106) ($63) ($19) Certainty is 99.47% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### 108 Outliers

- 337

$25 252.7 

### "'Tl! 

## .,.: Ml 168.5**~** Ml ::i 84.25

### ~


### Figure 44 10% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 108 Outliers**1.000...----------~---:-------===~-i..** 10000

## ~ 

# - ·- .c o;, 

### .c 0 

# ... c. .750 .500 .250 

### ··········································-······························-····r···········



# ..................................................................................r···

($150) ($106) ($63) ($19) Certainty is 99.47% from -Infinity to $0 $ 0 $25 

### Fiigure 45 10% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

32

### ·10,000 Trials .035 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 197 Outliers 350 .026 ......................................................................................... . ··············································· - 262.5 .018 .............................................;.............................. . ···········:································· 175

.009 ·····································•·;- 87.5 ($225) ($150) ($75) $0 $75 Certainty is 95.86% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Fi:gure 46 15% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### 110,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 1.000

## ~ .750 

### -·-············:·······································--··1·········-··


# ·-**~** : .Q**~** .Q 

## e 

# .... ll. .500 

### ········································································j··· .250 ···························································· ($225) ($150) ($75) $0 Certainty is 95.86% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### 197 Outliers 10000

0 $75 

### Figure 47 15% Efficiency Level & High Growth:**Cum~lative** 

### Chart ofLCC Differences



### 33

### 10,000 Trials .037 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 128 Outliers 367

### ~ 

# ·- 

# - .Cl 00 .Cl 0 

# ... a. .028 .....................................................................u ••••••• .018**············································~··················** .009 ·······················································- 275.2 

## -ni 

# .... rlll ··················································· 183.5**~** rlll 

### :w

........................................ 91.75**~**

I - 0 .000**~** ($300) ($188) ($75) $38 $150 Certainty is 85.69% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 48 20% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 128 Outliers

### ~ 

# ·- 

# - ·- .Cl «J .Cl 

## e 

# ... a. 1.000..z----------------.------------...,_ 10000 .750 .500 .........................................................................._ .250 ···························································· .000**~** ($300) ($188) ($75) $38 Certainty is 85.69% from -Infinity to $0 $ 0 $150 

### F;igure 49 20% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

34

### ·10,000 

### Trials .028 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart
.021 ............................................................................................-

## ~ 

# - .014 .007($1,000) ($700) ($400) ($100) Certainty is 90.03% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### 166 Outliers

- 284

213 ""Tl 

# .., n**14~** .Cl 

### c: n**~** 71 

## Q

- 0 . $200 

### Figure 50 25% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### 110,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 166 Outliers 1.000..r------------------------=---,_ 10000

• Cl (0 ,,Q Q 

# ... ll. .750 ........................................................................................- .................

.500 ......................................................................................._ ... .250 ...................................................................... 0 ($1,000) ($700) ($400) ($100) $200 Certainty is 90.03% from -Infinity to $0 $**Fi;~ure** 

### 51 25% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

35

### Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 137 Outliers

### ~ 

# ·- 

# - ·- ..0**~** ..0 0 

# ... c. .033_,--------------,.------:----------...,,_ 327 .025 ............................................................................ .. .016 ............................................................. .008 ($938) ($375) . ················································ 245.2

........................... ;................ . $188 $750 

### .,,i 

# -· C"D 163.5**~** C"D ::::ll 81.75

### ~ Certainty is 84.67% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 52 35% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### ·10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 1.000 

### ········································································J·•·········· 

# i

.............................................................................:

### .. .750

## .~ 

# ·- ,.Q .500 o::t ,.Q Q 

# ... .250 

### ll. ($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 Certainty is 84.67% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### 137 Outliers 10000

0 $750 "'T1 

# - n .c:1I 

## c n 

# =**~**
Figure 53 35% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

36

### ·10,000 Trials .033 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 126 Outliers

- 334

# '~ ,.Q**~** ,.Q Cl



### ..... ll. .025 .017 ......................................................................... . .008($1,500) ($938) ($375) ················································ 250.5 

### "'T'li 

# ..... ni 

## !

.................................,........... - 167 -'='I =i C"'D i 

### ::Ii ······································· 83.5

### ~j $188 $750 Certainty is 84.18% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Fi;gure 54 40% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### 110,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 126 Outliers 1.000..r-------------.,....-------===---... 10000

,Q (11::1 

### .c Cl


### ..... ll. .750 .500 .250 

### i 

## i

.............................................................................r··········· : 

# i ········································································}·

($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 Certainty is 84.18% from -Infinity to $0 $ 0 $750 

# .,, 

# - n .c 

### c n 

# =**~**
Figure 55 40% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

37

### Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 109 Outliers .029 _,.----------------,---------------,_ 290 .022 .015 .007 ($1,500) ($938) ($375) ···········································- 217.5 

# .,, --. n ······································· 145 .c:i

$188 $750 

### c: 

# ..., 

# = 72.5

### ~
Certainty is 74.99% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 56 45% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences



### 10,000 Trials Forecast: LCC Difference Cumulative Chart 109 Outliers**1.000..r-----------~---.-----------=:-::-l...** 10000

## ~ 

# - ·- .Q q;i .Q 

## e a.. 

## c.. .750 .500 .250

# ~~-~::::::::..

# :.:.:..

# :·:·:··::·::··:·~:·.::::::····:·::::::::····:~]-···········

0 ($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750 Certainty is 74.99% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 57 45% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences



### ' 38

### 10,000 Trials .031 

### Forecast: LCC Difference Frequency Chart 124 Outliers 307

### ~ 

# ·- 

# - ·- .Q i:IO .Q 

## e**~** 

# a. .023 .............................................................................. .015 ........................................................................... .008 230.2 "'T'll -.j nil l 153.5**~!** nil 

### i 

## =: 76.75

### ~l .000 0 ($938) ($375) $188 $750 Certainty is 75.13% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### Figure 58 50% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences


### Forecast: LCC Difference ·10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 124 Outliers 1.000...r---------------.------------==---,_ 10000 .750 .500 ................................................................................._ .. .250 .0001-...,...wL1&1.11w.l11LlllllllllllJU ($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 Certainty is .75.13% from -Infinity to $0 $ 0 $750 

# .,, 

# - n ..Cl 

### c n ::I

## ~
Figure 59 50% Effidency Level & 

### High Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences

39

### 10,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 277 Outliers .387 .290

# -~ 

# - ·- .Cl .193 q;:i .g 0 

# ... .097 

## c. .000**_,.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--....** 3865

................................................................................................................................................................ -

0.0 

# ..,, .... n


## ····································································································································- .c c n 

### ! 

# = ··········t················································:········:······························································ 966.2

### ~ HMean 

## = 0.1 

## I 0.2 0.4 0.6**~** - 0 0.8 

### Fiigure 60 5% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period



### 10,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 286 Outliers .461 4607 .346 

### ......................

### _ .............................................................................................................................

### ~ 

# ·- 

# - .c .230 .................................................................................................................................................................... (ll:!I .Cl 

## e 

# ... .115 

## c. .000 

# ..... . ............-1;-:::..

# :·~::1........ ....................· ............................................................**ww~~~~~~~.--~..--~-.-;..._-.--~~~,.-Lo** 0.0 1.1 2.3 3.4 4.5 

### Figure 61 10°/o Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period



### 40 

# ..,, 

# ... n 

### .c c n 

# =**~**

### 10,000 Trials .239 

### Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency 

### Chart 348 Outliers 2387

### ~ 

# ·- 

# - ··--T···············································································-··- .........**~ ·············~**  

# .....................................................................................................................- = i C"D 

## ! l 

# == .179 .119 .060 

# ............t .......................................................**~...........................................................** 596.7**~** 

# i**~** Mean= 1.5 .000**J_.JJ.Wllau.~iiiiil~~;;.._----------.--...----,~,--J-** 0 2.8 5.5 8.3 11.0 

### Figure 62 15% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period**~I** 

### 0,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency 

### Chart 242 Outliers

## ~~ 

# ·- ,,_ ,,Q**~** ,,Q 0 

# ... ll. .239- .179 .119 .060 .**~** 2387



### ................................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................. "'Tl 

# ... n ..c 

### c n 

### :::s



### ....................................................................................................................................... 596.7

### ~ .000**~** L •. 11111 

## .JI Mean = 4.0 

## I**l_PlllllldU.U.UUllWiliijllllliJilll~**....................... _____**-......~__,..~-,~,.--l..o** 0.0 5.6 11.3 16.9 22.5**Fi:~ure** 

### 63 20% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period

41

### 10,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 186 Outliers .024**..:---:c-:--~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--,_239** .018 

# .?:- 

# ·- 

# - ·- .c .012 ci:::ll ,.Q Q


## .... .006 

# a. ·.000 ......................................................................................................

0.0 4.4 8.8 13.1 179.2 

# . :::t'1i n 119.5.Q 

### c: ni 

### ::::. 59.75

### ~


### Filgure 64 25% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period



### ·10,000 Trials .035 .027 

# .?:- 

# ·- 

# - .c .018 ci:::ll .c:I Q 

# ... .009 

# c. .000 0.0 

### Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 268 Outliers 354

# ·-··-:r:::.·::~_·:····:.:~~..::.:.....

# :.:::::~·::~::::·:::::·::.~:.:::··.:::::.·:~~.::::: 265.5 177 88.5**JIUJJIUWlllllqJlallhllaal.l,~,--J-** 0 5.6 11.3 16.9 22.5 

### Figure 65 35% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period

42

### ·10,000 Trials .037 .028

# '~ ,,Cl .019 Ct! ,,g Q a.. .009 ll. .000 0.0 

### Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 280 Outliers 373

. ··········-····························································································· 279.7

5.6 

# .L.. ................................................................... 

# .,,, ;:; i 186.5-= 

# I c: ! 

### n: ::l 

### !

### ·····················:······························~····························· - 93.25

### ~ 

# l**WllJWIJJWW~!d&llU&la~~...--1.** 0 11.3 16.9 22.5 

### Figure 66 40% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period



### 110,000 Trials .033



### . c Ct! 

### .c 

## e a.. ll. .025 .016 .............. .008 ............**.000..L..--:-~­** 

### O.O Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 

### 185 Outliers 329 

# ········T····-···-· .. ············-·-·-················-··············-················· 246.7 

# ,, .... 

# "' 164.5**~**

6.9 13.8 20.6 

# "' 

# = 82.25

### ~**~** - 0 27.5 

### Fi:gure 67 45% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period

43

### 10,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 229 Outliers .029 .022

# -~ .c .015 

# "" .c 0 

# a: .007 .000**_,-~~~~~~~-,-~~~~~~~~~~~~~----,_290**

......................



### 0.0 6.3 

### ·····1·························································································- 217.5

·················································································· 145 72.5


### 12.5 18.8 

### 25.0 

### Figure 68 50% Efficiency Level & 

### Low Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period 

# .,, .., C1I 

# -= c: ('1 

# Q

10,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 285 Outliers .368 .276

## ~ .c .184 

# "" .c 0 

# .... .092 

# a. .000 

### -··· ····-····T················-·······-·-·············-·-·····--······································-··-·········· ··········r····-·-·············-·····-·--·········-··-··········-············-·············--···--······ 3675 

# ,, .... ("'1) 

# -= c n :::::::i 918.7

### ~ 

# .........**1:::·~·::~·;**

# ...................._ ................_ ............--..- ....-......_ .........__ .lllJ.a,.......**;;a;;;;;;::;;;;;.:::;::;;:::::,~.--~....-~-.-~-.-~--.~~~..,.-l..O** 

### 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 

### Figure 69 5% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period



### 44

### 10,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 268 Outliers .462 .347

## ~ 

# - ·- .Cl .231 (ti .Cl Q 

# ... .116 

# c. .000 4622



# ..... .:: :.:

# ::::::.:i.~~.:··:.:·:.::·::::::::: : ..:

..::::::::::::::: : : : ·::::·: ::::::::..:.:.::::.·..: ..·.·::::·.::.::..:·:::·::·:.....:.



# ....**············T:::·~-:~~---·································** 

# ···················································**_l__JUJ.llWJllilllii&;;;;;;;;~;::::::.__...~~-.-~--....~~-.-~--~~_,__J_O** 0.0 1.1 2.3 3.4 4.5 

### Figure 70 10% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period



### 'I 0,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 315 Outliers .240 .180 

# 2'- "- 

# ·-

. .c .120 

# " ,.g Q 

# ... .060 IC. .000 0.0 ..............................................................................................................................................................

........................................................................................................................................................

.................................................................................................................................................... 2395



## i Mean= 1.5**llwaqia'l~~:;;:w;:;;:._'4-** ____**~--.~~...,..-~---....-~~~o** 2.8 5.5 8.3 11.0 

### Figure 71 15% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period

45

### 10,000 Trials .262 

# l' 

# ·- 

# - ·- .Cl 00 .g Q


## .... 

# a. .196 ..... .131- ..... .065 

### Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 233 Outliers 2615 

## "'Tll 

# .... rP .ci 

### c:: Ml ::::i 653.7

### ~ 1 ..1 • 

### lJ Mean = 3.9 

## I**.oooj_.JIJ~llldJllUJ.tll.tJ..iJIWDijiillmiii•**

### ........**~-----...,.----..--._,•~** 

### o 0.0 5.6 11.3 16.9 22.5 

### Fiigure 72 . 20% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period



### ·10,000 Trials .025 .018

## ~ 

# - ·- .Cl .012 00 ,Q 0 

# ... .006 

## c. .000 0.0 

### Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart

4.4 8.8 13.1 

### 124 Outliers 245

17.5 183.7 

### -n 

# - 0 122.5-g 

### n 

# = 61.25

### ~


### Figure 73 25% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Distribution of Payback Period



### 46

### 'I 0,000 Trials .039

.029

## .~ 

# ·- .,_
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# ""
. .c c:ii 

# ... .010 

### ii. .000 0.0 

### Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart



## .. 239 Outliers

- 389 

# ··········1::::::::.:::::::::·..:.::::::::::::::::·:::::·:··::::::.:::.::::::::::..·::::::::··.:..:·.··: 291.7 

### -ni 

# .... C"D 

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# I c, nl !**~I** 97.25

### ~! 5.6 11.3 16.9**Fii~ure** 

### 74 35o/o 

### Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Distribution of Payback Period



### 10,000 Trials .041 .031

## :~ 

# ·- 

# ·- .Q .021**~** 

# ·= Q 

# ... .010 

### Cl. .000 0.0 

### Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 237 Outliers



### ................................................................................................................

.....................................................................................................................

5.6 11.3 16.9 410 307.5 

# ,, 

# - n 205 

### .c 

## c n**~** 102.5

### ~**Fi1~re** 

### 75 40% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Distribution of Payback Period



### 47

### ·10,000 Trials .030 .023 

# £'**~** .015 Cll;I ,.Q 0 

# .... .008 

### lil. .

.000**~** 0.0 

### Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 235 Outliers 302 

### ··········1··········································-··································· ·········. 226.5 

# ;;ii

6.3 ························································································ 151 .::I 

## c C"D 

## ='**~** 12.5 18.8 

### Figure 76 45% Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period



### ·10,000 Trials .030 .022

## .~ ,.Q .015 Cll;I ,.:;i Cl 

# ... .007 IC.. .000 0.0 

### Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 

### 21 OOutliers

6.3 298 

### ·····t·······································:...............................: .................. - 223.5 

### l**~** 

# ... ('D

..................................................................................... 149 

### .c 

## c C'll :::i

.. ······························································· 74.5

### ~ 12.5 18.8 

### Figure 77 50°/o 

### Efficiency Level & 

### Medium Growth: Distribution of Payback Period


### 48

### 110,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 267 Outliers .392 .294

## ~~ .Cl .196 (IO 

### ,g 0 

# ... .098 [l. .000**...r--:-~~~~~~-'--~~~~~~~~~~~~~--,_** 3915

................................................................................................................................................................................

0.0 ""Tl 

# ... ('I ···································································································································· .Q . . c: n**~ ~**  ··········t···························································:····:·······················································- 978.7

### ~ H

Mean= 0.1 

# I**llwa~;;;;;;;;;;;~:::.._-.-~-.-~-.-~-.-~-.-~~~r---1-0** 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7**Fii~re** 

### 78 5% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period



### 110,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 262 Outliers 4779 .478 .358

## ;~ 

# ·- ,,_ ,Q .239 (IO ,g 0 

# ... .119 ll. .000 ..............................................................................................................................................................................................

····· ............................................................................................................................................................

...................................................................................................................................................... 11Mean=0.6 

# I 0.0 1.1 2.3 3.4**~** - 0 4.5**Fii~ure** 

### 79 10% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Distribution of Payback Period

49

### 10,000 Trials .254 .191

### ~ 

# ·- 

# - ·- ..c .. 127 «ll .i:i Cl 

# ... .064 

# a. -.000 0.0 

### Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 292 Outliers

. 2543

....................................................................................................................................................... 

### - ""T'I 

# .., (1 

### ··································································································································· ..c c: n 

### l**~**

### ···········+·····················································~······························································. 635.7

### ~ 

### H

Mean= 1.41**1111.ill&l,.iL.liiiiow;;;::;;:;;;:;;;:;;;:;:.......~~--~--.....-~--.-~~-.-~---,~** 

### 0 2.8 5.5 8.3 11.0 

### Fiigure 80 15o/o 

### Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period



### 10,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 222 Outliers .267

### ~ .200· ··-· 

### ··················l············································································································· 

# I : ::: :._.:..**:::.:.:::~I~~~:~-~:~:I:·:::·:··:::.::.::.::.··:.:.····~··::.::~·-.·**....

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### 0.0 5.6 11.3 16.9**~** 22.5 2668
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### Figure 81 20% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period

50

### ·10,000 Trials .023 .018

### ~ ,,_ 

# ,_ ,,Q .012 00 ,,Q 0


## .... .006 ll. .000 0.0 

### Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 

### 206 Outliers 234

..... ······························;·············································· 117

.... ··········································:···········- 58.5
3.8 7.5 11.3**Fii~ure** 

### 82 25% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period



### 1

### 0,000 Trials .038 .028

### ~~ 

# ·- ·- 

# ·- . .Q . 019 or::i .Q 0 

# ... .009 

### Cl. .000 0.0 

### Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 

### 261 Outliers



### .............................................................................................................

................................................................................................... 375 281.2 

# ..,, 

# - " 187.5 ... 

### c ('Tl 

# = 93.75

### ~**WWlllJLJllJ.b.u~:llud111;~.---l** 

### o 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 

### Figure 83 35% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period

51

### 10,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 281 Outliers .038**~~~~~~~--;-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--,__** 376 

# ············:[::.·

....

## ::.:::·::::.:::::::.:....

# :::

# ::~: ::::...

## ::·:::::··::::....

## ::.:.:::

# : :::::.:...

# :

. 

# : :: .028

### ~ 

# ·- 

# - ·- .Q .019 CIO 

### .c Q 94 

# ... .009 

# a. .000 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 

### Figure 84 40% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period



### 10,000 Trials .032 .024

## .~ 

# - ·- .c .016 «J 

### .c 

## e 

# ... .008 

# a. .000**~** 0.0 

### Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart

6.3 12.5 

### 185 Outliers 322 241.5 

# .,,.. 

# - " 161 oCI 

### c n 

# = 80.5

### ~**WW.l.U.llliladllll..u..J~W-** 

## o 18.8 25.0 

### Figure 85 45% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Distribution of Payback Period

52

### ·10,000 Trials Forecast: Payback (yrs) Frequency Chart 170 Outliers .033**_,--~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-----,_** 329 .025 ······+···························································································: 246.7

## .~ 

# ·- l .,, :**~** 

### .**~** ,.Q .016 00 ···························································································· - 164.5 ..c:;i 

### . c ,.i;i 0 

# ... .008 

### ll.**~** 

# =

. ······································································- 82.25

### ~ .000 0.0 6.3 12.5 18.8 

### Fi;gure 86 50% Efficiency Level & 

### High Growth: Distribution ofPayback Period

53