## Wo od St ov e MarketImpacts Including Ef

ficiency and Emissions St andar ds Hearth, P atio & Barbecue Association

Prepared and Pr esent ed by: Ro bert F erguson Fe rg uson, Andor s & Compan y

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# Wo od St ov e Market F act or s • The wood s tove market is driven by man y fact or s.

– The influence of these fa ctor s is not the same for ever y potential pur chaser or for every locale. • Some of those fact or s: Po sitiv e F act or s • Incr easing Con ve ntional Energy Cos ts • Self- Suf

ficiency Motiv at ion • Fir ewood Availability and Cost • Ta x (or Other) Incentiv es • Capital Outla y/In ve st ment Pay back (ROI) • Ef ficiency/Emissions P erformance • Aes thetics Neg ative F act or s • Lower (or Stable) Con ve ntional Energy Cos ts • Incon ve nience and Extr a Work • Fir ewood Availability and Cost • Capital Outla y and In ve st ment Pay back (ROI) • Safety Concerns

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## Wo od St ov e E ff iciency
• IR S T axCr edit

– In 2009, IR S appr oved a t ax cr edit pr ogr am that included biomass heating equipmen t as long as minimum efficiency r equir emen ts wer e met.

– Both HPBA and EP

A worked t o get a s ta ndar d efficiency determination pr ot ocol included as part of the IR S pr ogr am. • This effort was unsuccess ful other than g etting clarification that the Lower Heating Value of the fuel could be used for determining efficiency.
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# Basics of HHV v. LHV

• HHV (Higher Heating Value) assumes that the wat er v apor pr oduced when the solid fuel is burned c an c ondense and therefor e the heat released if that occur s is treated as “ ava ilable” heat as part of the t ot al heat input fr om the fuel. • LHV (Lower Heating Va lue) assumes that the wat er v apor pr oduced when the solid fuel is burned will never be allowed t o c ondense, and therefor e, that pot en tial heat rec overy shouldn’t be c oun te d as part of the heat input fr om the fuel. • Since e fficiency is heat output divided by heat input, using LHV (smaller denominat or) r esults in higher e fficiency va lues. • LHV is g ener ally used in Eur ope for solid - fuel fired heater s. • HHV is the g ener al norm for r ating all heating equipment in North Americ a and allows direct c omparison of e fficiency of heat er s burning different fuel types (g as, oil or wood). • Since there are already c ondensing designs for g as and oil, and there is alwa ys the possibility of someone in venting a condensing syste m fo r solid fuel, HHV is the bette r w ayt o r ate ALL heater s. 4

# How did this af

fe ct the IR S v alues?

• IR S allowed self- certific ation by manufactur er s including using pr eviously a va ilable eff iciency dat a. • The s ta ndar d pr actice adopt ed by manufactur er s in the absence of IR S guidance w as t o base the efficiency va lue on a single heat output category r ather than the weighted a ver ag e over the full oper ating r ange of the sto ve. • In combination with the LHV , this r esult ed in “IR S” eff iciency v alues that can be significantly higher when co mpar ed to the weighted a ver ag e HHV eff iciency.

5• HPB A supports the det ermination of the a ver ag e over all efficiency using a s ta ndar diz ed weighted av er ag e HHV efficiency t es t method (CS A B415.1 - 10) so the pla ying field is level for every one. • HPB A also supports det ermining the pr ecision of the eff iciency t es t method. • St andar diz ed eff iciency v alues (including pr ecision) should be disclosed to the buying public to aid their pur chasing decision.

– on hang tags

– in adv ertising materials • Marketplace pr essur es will ultimat ely drive manufactur er s to impr ove efficiency levels for their lower performing models. 6 

## Wo od St ov e E ff iciency

# Wo od St ov e PM Emissions • EP A Wood St ove P articulat e Emissions ar e det ermined using a labor ato ry t es t pr ocedur e that co nsis ts of burning Douglas fir fuel cribs in at leas t four t es t runs that span the oper ating r ange of the s to ve .

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### • The EP

A t es t methods ha ve limit ations and a compr ehensiv e ev aluation of the pr ecision 1 

### of t he EP A t es t methods has shown that they cannot re liably dis tinguish emissions performance differ ences of less than 3 gr ams per hour . • This means that EP

A t es t methods ar e cert ainly capable of r eliably dis tinguishing between good and bad performance , but they cannot r eliably dis tinguish between “g ood, bette r and bes t” performance. 1 “ EP A Wo od Heater T

est Method V

ariability Study - Analysis of Uncertainty , R epeatability and R eproducibility based on the EP A Accredited Laboratory Proficiency T est Database ”, R. Curkeet and R. Ferguson. Submitted to EP A on October 6, 2010. The report is a vailable upon request. The report was also summarized in Hearth and Home Mag azine, March 2011 Issue. 8

### • The emission t es t r esults fr om the EP A labor ato ry - based t es t methods ar e also not a re liable pr edict or of in - home PM emission performance 2 

### . • In - home PM performance is gener ally higher and s to ve r ankings can change.

– A s tove with a higher EP A emission certification ra ting ma y perform bette r in the field than a s tove with a lower EP

A number . 2 “ A Comparison of Particulate Emission Rates from the In - Home Use of Certified W ood Stove Models with U.S. EP A Certification Emission Va lues and A Comparison between In - Home Uncertified and Certified W ood Stove Particulate Emissions”, Dr

. James Houck, February 2012 9

### • Tigh te ning performance s ta ndar ds will ha ve definit e impacts:

– Stove prices will incr ease due to r e - design cos ts, certification cos ts, cos t impacts in manufacturing , and marketing and sales cos ts as w ell as the actual material cos t incr eases fo r each s tove pr oduced - to name some of the elemen ts. • In the simples t te rms, when stove prices incr ease, s tove demand decr eases.

– Ea ch 1% incr ease in r etail price r esults in 1.6% fe we r sales.

– Impacts on r eplacemen t stove s ma y be ev en gr ea te r. 1011 **8% Decrease in Sales V**  **olume**

**5% Increase in Retail Price** 0

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017**U n** **i t** **s S** **o l** **d**

**Ye ar** 

**EP A Certified W** **ood Heat er Historical Sales Data,**  **1987 -**  **2010, and Pr ojections**  **thr ough**  **2017**

Historical Data - Freestanding Only Linear Fit & Projection Freestanding Stoves Only Estimated & Projection Freestanding Stoves plus Fireplace Inserts

Sources 1. The Fraction of Freestanding Wood- Fueled Stoves in Current Use That are U.S. EPA Certified Cordwood Stoves and Wood Pellet Stoves James E. Houck, Ph.D., July 23, 2011 2. Estimated Fireplace Insert Sales as an Average Percentage of Total Certifed Stove Sales 1999 - 2010, Hearth, Patio & Barbecue Association
12 EP A NSPS Phase 2

### • Curr en t tr ends show a modes t 1% a ve ra ge incr ease in sales volume without added cos ts due t o new r egulation. • With new or tigh te r r egulations, that tr end is likely t o r ever se -- with fewer sales than to da y. • Fo r PM emissions, lowering the passing gr ade will pr oduce only the appear ance of pr ogr ess– nothing mor e. • It will slow the r ate of change - outs, by incr easing the cos t of new s toves and re ducing the number of models ava ilable to consumer s.
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## 2010 Na tional P articula te E missions by

Fr ees ta nding St ove Cat egor y

Certified Non Cat: 15,188 To ns, 10% Certified Cat: 5,016 T ons, 3% All P ellet: 1,445 To ns, 1%

Conventional

135,420 T ons, 86%

14 6 Million + Stoves - 86% of To tal PM

~3.3 Million Stoves – 14% of T otal PM To ta l PM Emissions – 2010: 157,069 T

ons Source: The Fraction of Freestanding W ood- Fueled Stoves in Current Use That are U.S. EP A Certified Cordwood Stoves and W ood Pellet Stoves , Dr

. James Houck, July 2011

# Conclusions
• Wood s tove demand is v olatile, can ha ve r egional differ ences and is influenced by man y fact or s. • Eco nomic F act or s ar e Primary Driver s fo r Consumer s

– Con ve nt ional Heating Costs

– Ava ilability and Cost of Fir ewood

– Capit al In ve st ment and P ay back ( RO I) 

### • Tigh te ning s ta ndar ds is a meaningless number s ga me

-- nothing mor e. It will however , driv e up stove prices and r educe demand.

– This re duces chang e - outs as consumer s opt to keep their old stoves. Pr e - certification er a stove models pr oduce the va stmajority of PM fr om r esiden tial wood combustion. 15