1 

## SECTION 2

2007 Attainment and 20 17 and 2025 Projection Inventor ies

f

or the

Northern and Southern New Jersey

PM2.5 Redesignation Full Maintenance Plan SIP

Technical Support Document2 A. Background

The maintenance demonstration must demonstr ate effective safeguards of the NAAQS for at least 10 years

following the redesignation showing that future year PM2.5 and associated precursors emissions will not exceed

the level of the attainment year. For the Northern N ew Jersey (NNJ) and Southern New Jersey (SNJ) PM2.5

nonattainment areas, 2007 emissions were projected to 2017 and 2025. New Jersey must demonstrate, with the

control programs identified in this SIP, that total 2017 or 2025 projected emissions do not exceed the 2007

emission levels. Be low are EPA

= s review and evaluation of the maintenance demonstration for the two areas.

Inventory Requirements for a Redesi g nation/Full Maintenance Plan

Sections 110(a)(1) and 175A of the CAA, coupled with page 1 0 , paragraphs 1

- 3, of the March 2, 2012, m emo

entitled Implementation Plan Guidance for the 2006 24

- hour PM2.5 NAAQS from Stephen D. Page, Director,

OAQPS, to Regional Air Directors require that the State submit following inventory elements to satisfy

redesignation/maintenance plan inventory requi rements.

Maintenance Plan Attainment Inventory

Maintenance plan provisions include a comprehensive, accurate, and current emission inventory from all

sources of relevant pollutants in the nonattainment area. States are required to develop an attainment inventory

to identify the level of emissions in the area which is sufficient to attain the NAAQS. This inventory should be

consistent with EPA

= s most recent guidance and should include the emissions during the time period associated

with the monitoring d ata showing attainment.

Maintenance Plan Interim Year Inventory

At a minimum, emissions should be projected to a midpoint year between the attainment year and the

endpoint/10

- year inventory. This is the interim inventory

. Provide summary of controlled e missions for point,

area, nonroad and onroad mobile sources for the PM2.5 nonattainment area for the interim year inventory.

Maintenance Plan Projected Final Year Inventory

Emissions should be projected from the attainment year to at least 10 years into the future. Provide summary of

controlled emissions for point, area, nonroad and onroad mobile sources. This is the endpoint/10

- year

inventory.

B. Selection of 2007 Base Year as the Maintenance Plan Attainment Year Inventory

For the NNJ and SNJ PM2.5 nonattainment areas, air quality monitoring data shows that for 2007

- 2009 was not

in violation of the PM2.5 annual standard. For 2007

- 2010, monitoring data shows that NNJ PM2.5

nonattainment area was not in violation of the PM2.5 daily standard. For 2008

- 2010, monitoring data shows3 that SNJ PM2.5 nonattainment area was not in violation of the PM2.5 daily standard. However, for 2007, the

SNJ was in violation of the PM2.5 daily standard. Historically, for the attainment inventory the s tate would

select an attainment year inventory based on the year in which an area is not in violation of the standard. This

means for the SNJ PM2.5 nonattainment area, that New Jersey should have selected 2008 or 2009 as the

attainment year inventory for the PM2.5 daily stan dard. However, the State believes that the 2007 inventory is

an appropriate and representative inventory to use as a surrogate attainment inventory for the 2008 inventory for

the SNJ PM2.5 nonattainment area for the daily standard for several reasons disc ussed as follows:

• The 2007 inventory is the most comprehensive inventory developed by states in the region for SIP

purposes.

• The monitors in the SNJ nonattainment area showed compliance with the 35 μg/m 3 daily standard during

the 2007

- 2009 monitoring per iod. However, sampling errors resulted in incomplete data for 2007 in the

SNJ area, which was not able to be addressed through data substitution and statistical analysis.

Incomplete data also existed for the 2008

- 2010 monitoring period, but was able to b e addressed through

data substitution and statistical analysis.

• The monitors in the New Jersey portion of the SNJ nonattainment area showed compliance with the 35

μg/m3 daily standard during the 2007

- 2009 monitoring period.

• The 2007 and 2008 emission i nventories are comparable, as demonstrated by a comparison of New

Jersey’s 2007 inventory with USEPA’s 2008 National Emissions Inventory (NEI).

• Most important, comparison of the 2008 to the 2017 and 2025 inventories, s hows that emissions will

continue to d ecrease and will be well below the 2007 and 2008 PM2.5 levels for PM2.5 and its

precursors, NOx, and SO2, in the SNJ PM2.5 nonattainment area.

For these reasons, the State selected the 2007 inventory as a surrogate for the 2008 inventory and will be used as

the attainment inventory for the SNJ and NNJ PM2.5 nonattainment areas for the PM2.5 daily and annual

standard. Thus, the 2007 base year emissions inventory will used as the attainment year inventory for the

PM2.5 redesignation maintenance plan . The em ission estimates were prepared in accordance with EPA

guidance.

EPA is approving the 2007 PM2.5 inventory for the Northern and Southern New Jersey PM2.5 nonattainment

areas. Detailed evaluation of the 2007 inventory is located in Section 1 of EPA’s TSD

. Tables 1A

- B below

shows the 2007 base year PM2.5, NO

x and SO2 emission inventories for the NNJ and SNJ PM2.5

nonattainment areas.4 Table 1A

2007 Northern New Jersey PM2.5 Nonattainment Area

Base Year Inventory (in Tons/Year)

Pollutant Point Area Non road Mobile Onroad Mobile Total

PM 2.5 4,937 5,498 2,497 3,677 16,610

NO X 15,828 16,122 39.457 93,385 164,793

SO X 20,360 4,983 5,761 586 31,690

Table 1B

2007 Southern New Jersey PM2.5 Nonattainment Area

Base Year Inventory (in Tons/Year)

Pollutant Point Area Nonroad Mobile Onroad Mobile Total

PM 2.5 800 2,837 560 1,055 5,159

NO X 4,453 3,483 6,790 26,992 41,718

SO X 2,034 1,128 1,642 161 4,965

C. 20 17 and 2025 Projection Inventories

There are general and specific components for an acceptable 20 1 7 and 2025 projection. In general, the State

must submit a revision to its SIP and the aforementioned components must meet certain minimum requirements

for reporting by source category. Specifically, the source requirements are detailed below.

A review process is used to determine that all components of the projection inventories are present. The review

also evaluates the level of supporting documentation provided by the State and assesses whether the emissions

were developed according to current EPA or acceptable alternative guidance. For the projection inventories to

be acceptable they must pass the following acceptance criteria:

1. W ere the 20 17 and 2025 projection inventories developed in accordance with the procedures

outlined EPA’s latest guidance 1,3,4,6,7 ?

2. Were the Plans developed in accordance with EPA’s latest guidance for Growth Factors,

Projections, and Control Strategies for R easonable Progress Goal Plans 1,3,4,6,7 ?5 D. Calculation of 2017 and 2025 Projection Year Emission Inventories

A pro jection of 2007 PM2.5, NOx, and SO 2 anthropogenic emissions to 2017 and 2025 is required to determine

the emission reductions needed for inventory maintenance plan

. The 2017 and 2025 projection year emission

inventories are calculated by multiplying the 2007 base year inventory by factors which estimate growth from

2007 to 2017 and 2025 . A specific growth factor for each source type in the inventory is required since sources

typically grow at different rates.

Projection Methodology

Majo r Point Sources

Electric Generat ing Unit s (EGU) and Non

- Electric Generating Units (Non

- EGUs)

For the major point source category, the projected emissions inventories were first calculated by estimating

growth in each source c ategory. As appropriate

, the 2007 emissions inventory was used as the base for applying

factors to account for inventory growth. The point source inventory was grow n from the 2007 inventory to 2017

and 2025 for each facility using growth factors utilized in New J ersey’s Emissions Statement Program, US

Department of Energy’s ( USD OE) Annual Energy Outlook projections, and NJ Department of Labor statistics.

T he reader is referred to Appendix VI of New Jersey’s document entitled SIP Revision for the Attainm ent and

Maintenance of the PM2.5 NAAQS (NJ PM2.5 SIP), dated July 18, 2012. This document provides further

details and references on how projections were performed.

Since these methodologies and growth indicators are some of the preferred growth indicato rs to use as outlined

in EPA Guidance, 1,3,4,6,7 EPA finds New Jersey ’s methodology for projecting point sources to be

acceptable.

Area Sources

For the area source category, New Jersey projected emissions from 2007 to 2017 and 2025 using growth factors

g enerated from USDOE AEO 20 11 , state supplied population and employment data, where appropriate.

The reader is referred to Appendix VI and Appendix V, Attachment 6 of NJ’s PM2.5 SIP dated July 18, 2012.

These documents provide further details and refere nces on how projections were performed.

Since these methodologies and growth indicators are some of the preferred growth indicators to use as outlined

in EPA Guidance, 1,3,4,6,7 EPA finds New Jersey ’s methodology for projecting area sources to be

accepta ble.6 Non

- Road Mobile Sources

Nonroad Vehicle Equipment Emissions

Non

- road vehicle equipment emissions were projected from 2007 to 2017 and 2025 using the EPA’s

NONROAD Model2008a (July 2009 Version) This model contains growth factors, which are based on the

historical trends in nonroad equipment activity. This model was use to calculate past and future emission

inventories for all nonroad equipment categories except commercial marine vessels, locomotives and aircrafts.

Revised inputs to the mod el by the State included meteorological , fuel oil , housing unit and population data

where appropriate. Emissions were determined on a monthly basis and combined to provide annual emission

estimates

.

Aircrafts , Locomotives and Commercial Marine Vessels (C MV)

CMV emissions were projected from 2002 to 2017 and 2025 using EPA’s regulatory impact assessment (RIA)

May 2008 RIA report , f or category 1 and 2 vessels and EPA’s April 2009 RIA proposal and December 2009

RIA report for category 3 vessels based on co mbined growth and control factors.

Aircraft emissions were projected from 2007 to 2017 and 2025 based on landing and takeoff growth factors

from the Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecast System for 2009

- 2030.

L ocomotives emissions we re projected from 2007 to 2017 and 2025 based on combined growth and control

factors from EPA ’s Regulatory I mpact Analysis in May 2008 for c ontrol of l ocomotive e ngines and USDOE ’s

2006 Annual Energy Outlook report

.

For nonroad mobile inventory , the read er is referred to Appendix VI of NJ’s PM2.5 SIP dated July 18, 2012.

These documents provide further details and references on how projections were performed.

Since these methodologies and growth indicators are some of the preferred growth indicators to use as outlined

in EPA Guidance, 1,3,4,6,7 EPA finds New Jersey ’s methodology for projecting non

- road mobile sources to

be acceptable.

Onroad Mobile Sources

For the onroad mobile source category, the primary indicator and tool for developing on

- road mo bile growth

and expected emissions are vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and US EPA ’ s mobile emissions model

MOVES2010a

. Projection years 2017 and 2025 pollutant emission factors were generated by MOVES2010a7 (with the associated controlled measures applied

, w h ere appropriate) and applied to the monthly V MT

projections provided by the State

. Month l y emissions were then combined to develop annual emission

estimates.

The reader is referred to Appendix VII of NJ’s PM2.5 SIP dated July 18, 2012. These documents provide

further details and references on how projections were performed

Since these methodologies and growth indicators are some of the preferred growth indicators to use as outlined

in EPA Guidance, 1,3,4,6,7 EPA finds New Jersey’s methodology for proj ecting on

- road mobile sources to be

acceptable.

Table s 2A

- 3B show s the 2017 and 2025 projection emission inventories controlled after 2007 using the

aforementioned growth indicators/methodologies for the NNJ and SNJ PM2.5 nonattainment area s

, respectively

.

A listing of the control strategies can be found in the document, which is available in the docket, Technical

Support Document for EPA’s Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for the New Jersey State Implementation Plan

Revision: Redesignation of Areas for Air Quality Planning Purposes and Approval of the Associated

Maintenance Plan for the 1997 and 2006 Fine Particle (PM 2.5 ) Standards , Appendix A

.8 Table 2 A

2017 Northern New Jersey PM2.5 Nonattainment Area

Projection Year Inventory (Controlled)

( in T ons/Year)

Pollutant Point Area Nonroad Mobile Onroad Mobile Total

PM 2.5 3,131 5,496 1,725 1874 12,227

NO X 13,512 15,969 27,050 45,687 102,218

SO X 3,583 452 719 531 5,295

Table 2B

2017 Southern New Jersey PM2.5 Nonattainment Area

Projection Year In ventory (Controlled)

(in Tons/Year)

Pollutant Point Area Nonroad Mobile Onroad Mobile Total

PM 2.5 818 2,743 372 616 4,549

NO X 4,126 3,429 4,998 13,504 26,057

SO X 1,245 102 105 129 1,5799 Table 3A

2025 Northern New Jersey PM2.5 Nonattainment Area

Projection Year Inventory (Controlled)

(in Tons/Year)

Pollutant Point Area Nonroad Mobile Onroad Mobile Total

PM 2.5 3,243 5,616 1,410 1.218 11.487

NO X 13,454 16,059 21,711 20,546 71,769

SO X 3,900 1,157 888 539 6,483

Table 3 B

2025 Southern New Jers ey PM2.5 Nonattainment Area

Projection Year Inventory (Controlled)

(in Tons/Year)

Pollutant Point Area Nonroad Mobile Onroad Mobile Total

PM 2.5 858 2,651 315 278 4,102

NO X 4,433 3,427 3,915 6,095 17,870

SO X 1,355 260 141 161 1,88010 Emission Invento ry Guidance Documents

1 Emission Inventory Improvement Program guidance document titled Volume X, Emission Projections

, dated

December 1999

2 Draft Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for PM2.5 SIPs , dated August 2010

3 Guidance for Growth Factors, Projections, and Control Strategies for the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plans

, dated March 1993

4 Guidance on the Post

- 1996 Rate of Progress Plan and Attainment Demonstration , dated January 1994

5 Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze

Regulation , dated August 2005

6 EPA’s follow

- up memo “ 8

- Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards Implementation

- Reasonable

Further Progress (RFP) , dated August 2006

7 Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstration Attainment of Air Quality Goals for

Ozone, PM2.5 and Regional Haze , dated April 2007