U.S. flag
      An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.
        Here's how you know
      Here's how you know**Official websites use .gov**
            
            A **.gov** website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
      **Secure .gov websites use HTTPS**
            
            A **lock** (
            A locked padlock
            ) or **https://** means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Menu

      
        close

            
            
                                              About NIJ
        
                    
  
          About NIJ
      
    
          The NIJ Director
          How NIJ Is Organized
          Mission and Guiding Principles
          Research and Development Process
          Strategic Framework
          Assessments of NIJ
          Annual Reports & Reports to Congress
          Staff Directory
          Funding & Awards
        
                    
  
          Funding & Awards
      
    
          Current Funding
          Forthcoming Funding
          Expired Funding
          Awards: Listing of Funded Projects
          Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
          Fellowship & Student Programs
          Travel Scholarships
          NIJ Challenge Program
          Library & Multimedia
        
                    
  
          Library & Multimedia
      
    
          NIJ Journal
          Podcasts
          Publications Listing
          Multimedia Listing
          Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
          Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
          Software & Databases
          Datasets
          Patents
          Topics
        
                    
  
          Topics
      
    
          Article Listing
          Corrections
          Courts
          Crime Prevention
          Crimes
          Drugs and Crime
          Equipment and Technology
          Forensic Sciences
          Youth Justice
          Justice System Reform
          Law Enforcement
          Tribal Crime and Justice
          Victims of Crime
          Events
        
                    
  
          Events
      
    
          NIJ 2024 Research Conference
          Scheduled Events
          On-Demand Events
          Research Meetings & Workshops
          NIJ-Hosted Online Training

                            
                                About
          Contact Us
          Subscribe
          Topics A-Z
                  Share
FacebookXLinkedInRedditPinterestEmail Home
                            Funding & Awards
 Anticipating the Future Based n Analysis of the Past: Intercity Variation in Youth Homicide, 1984-2007
Award Information
Awardee
              Research Triangle Institute
Award #
              2007-IJ-CX-0025
Funding Category
              Competitive
Location
                    Research Triangle Park, NC
Awardee County
              Durham
Congressional District
              4
Status
              Closed
Funding First Awarded
              2007
Total funding (to date)
              $298,430
Original Solicitation
              NIJ FY 07 ORE Crime & Justice Research
Description of original award (Fiscal Year 2007, $298,430)
The United States experienced two dominant trends in youth homicide over the past 25 years: an epidemic increase in the mid-1980s and early 1990s, followed by a sustained decline. By 2002, juvenile murder arrests had fallen to their lowest level since 1984. However since 2004, some U.S. cities have reported sharp increases in violence by youth. Arrests of youth for murder, robbery, and weapons offenses are up for the first time in a decade. Debate persists about whether youth violence is on the rise again. RTI International will partner with the Presley Center for Crime and Justice Studies to empirically determine characteristics of cities from which lethal youth violence can rapidly accelerate. This project, which leverages the research team's collective expertise in homicide and youth violence research, will conduct a city-level analysis of annual homicide trends for youth up to age 24 in the 100 largest cities in the U.S. from 1984-2007. In addition, a comprehensive data file representing youth lethal and non-lethal offending at the city-level over a 24-year period also will be constructed.
Construction of the data file will employ a Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR) adjustment procedure to address missing data in the SHR. This file will include key social and economic indicators for the period 1980, 1990, and 2000 and city-specific measures of drug market and gang activity. Data analysis will use a multilevel statistical modeling technique (Hierarchical Linear Modeling) to determine whether city characteristics identified in prior homicide research account for variation of these trends between cities. Specifically, the research team will estimate the annual temporal trends in youth homicide within cities during the period in which the U.S. experienced the dramatic rise and fall of youth homicide (1984-1999). The research team will then determine if the developed empirical model for this earlier time period adequately accounts for between-city variation of annual trends post 2000 (2000-2007). This will include determining whether the specified model applies equally well for juveniles (under age 18) and young adults (18-24) with further subdivisions by race and gender. The research team then will analyze whether the scope of the model can be extended to non-lethal youth violence, including robbery and assault, an issue unaddressed by previous homicide research. This study will enhance preparedness and prevention activities by identifying cities that are likely to experience significant increases in upcoming years based on past and current structural conditions and city-specific trends.
ca/ncf



  
Grant-Funded Publications
        
                      Anticipating the Future Based on Analysis of the Past: Intercity Variation in Youth Homicide, 1984-2006




  
Grant-Funded Datasets
        
                      http://dx.doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR30981

  
Date Created: August 14, 2007
    
          Side navigation
  

        

  
  
              Current Funding
    
      
            
            
            
      Forthcoming Funding
    
      
            
            
            
      Expired Funding
    
      
            
            
            
      Awards: Listing of Funded Projects
    
      
            
            
            
      Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
    
      
            
            
            
      Fellowship & Student Programs
    
      
            
            
            
      Travel Scholarships
    
      
            
            
            
      NIJ Challenge ProgramSimilar Awards
        
                      A Process, Adaptation, and Outcome Evaluation of San Gabriel Valley Crisis Assistance Response & Engagement (SGV CARE)
                  A longitudinal cohort mixed methods study of the impact of mental health on retention and turnover among early career police officers in South Carolina
                  Analytical Challenges with Proliferating THC Analogues
 Top

      National Institute of Justice

        
        
                        About NIJ
                    About NIJ
      
    
                  How NIJ Is Organized
      
    
                  NIJ Director
      
    
                  Research Disclaimer
      
    
                  Funding & Awards
                    Funding & Awards Home
      
    
                  Awards Listing
      
    
                  Current Funding
      
    
                  Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
      
    
                  Resources
                    Events
      
    
                  Podcasts
      
    
                  Publications
      
    
                  Topics
      
    
                  Multimedia
      
    
                  Reuse Policy
      
    
                  Contacts
                    Contact NIJ
      
    
                  Staff Directory
      
    
                  Submit a FOIA Request
      
    
                  File a Civil Rights ComplaintFacebook
          
                      X
          
                      YouTube
  

      810 7th St. NW, Washington, D.C. 20531
      
              Secondary Footer link menu
            Accessibility
              Plain Language
              Privacy Policy
              Legal Policies and Disclaimer
              No FEAR Act
              Freedom of Information Act
              USA.gov
              Justice.gov