State ofCalifornia AIR RESOURCES BOARD

STAFF REPORT

ANALYSIS OF SACRAMENTO METRO AREA'S 2009 STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FOR OZONE

Date of Release: March 12, 2009 Scheduled for Consideration: March 26, 2009

This report has been reviewed by the staffofthe California Air Resources Board and approved for publication

. Approval does not signifythatthe contents necessarily reflect the views and policies ofthe Air Resources Board.CALIFORNIAAIR RESOURCES BOARD NOTICE OF PUBLIC MEETING TO CONSIDER THE APPROVAL OF THE 2009 SACRAMENTO METRO AREA 8-HOUR OZONE ATTAINMENT PLAN The Air Resources Board (ARB orthe Board) will conduct a public meeting at the time and place noted belowto considerthe approval ofthe 2009 Sacramento Metro Area 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan.
DATE: TIME: PLACE: March 26, 2009 9:00a.m.

· California Environmental Protection Agency Building

Byron SherAuditorium 1001 I Street Sacramento, California 95814 This item will be considered at a meeting ofthe Board, which will commence at 9:00a.m., Thursday, March 26, 2009. Ifyou require special accommodations or language needs, please contact the Clerk of the Board at (916) 322-5594 or by Fax at (916) 322-3928 as soon as possible, but no laterthan 10 business days before the scheduled board hearing. TTYfTDD Speech to Speech users may dial 711 forthe California Relay Service. Background Thefederal Clean AirAct (the Act) establishes planning requirements forthose areas that routinely exceed the health-based National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). These nonattainmentareas must develop and implement a State Implementation Plan (SIP) that demonstrates howthey will attain the standards by specified dates. Federal law holds each state responsible for implementing the provisions ofthe Act. In July 1997, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) promulgated a new 8-hour NAAQS for ozone. U.S. EPA classified the Sacramento Metro Area as a "serious" nonattainment area with an attainment date ofJune 2013. The five air districts that comprise the Sacramento Metro NonattainmentArea have requested from U.S. EPAvoluntary reclassification to "severe-15." As a "severe-15" area, the Sacramento Metro Area has until June 2019to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. The Sacramento Metropolitan, Yolo-Solano, Placer County, El Dorado County and Feather River Air Districts have developed an attainment plan with inputfrom interestedparties. The Sacramento attainment demonstration indicatesthatthe local, State, and federal controls already in place, togetherwith new local measures arid reductions from the California 2007 State Strategywill allowthe region to attain the ozone standard by the 2018 deadline. The California Air Resources Board has previously adopted and submitted to U.S. EPA the 2007 State Strategyfor emissions benefits from the proposed new State measures to d.emonstrate attainment. For informational purposes, the table below shows the expected NOx and ROG emission reductions from the proposed newSIP measuresfor Sacramento for 2018. The total emission reductions necessaryto attain the federal standards will be the enforceable State commitment in the SIP upon Board adoption and U.S. EPA approval. Expected Emission NOx and ROG Reductions from Proposed New SIP Measures (tons per day) Sacramento MetroArea: 2018 Proposed NewSIP Measures PassengerVehicles

Smog Check Improvements (BAR) Expanded Vehicle Retirement Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline Program fleavy-Doty Trucks

Cleaner In-Use Heavy-DutyTrucks Goods M0vement5ourees

_

Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft Off•Rdad EquipmS:nt

Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment (over 25hp) OtherOff"Road Sources ·

New Emission Standardsfor Recreational Boats Expanded Off-Road Rec. Vehicle Emission Standards Additional Evaporative Emission Standard13 AreawideSources

Consumer Products Program Emission Reductionsfrom Proposed New .Measures

. ·· .. · · . NOx 1.7 1.4 0.3



## -- 9.5 9.5 0.2

. 0.2 1.9 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.0



## --



# --

-- 13 ROG 2.1? 1.3 0.2 1.1 o:8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 6.1 ·. 3.0 2.7 0.4

.·. 1

..9 ·, 1.9 I

... 11 ' The Plan also contains a Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) demonstration. The RFP demonstration shows that existing ·local, State, and federal controls are sufficientforthe Sacramento Metro Area to achieve the required minimum three percent peryear reduction in ozone-precursor emissions.

iiProposed Action The districts released their draft plan on September 10, 2008 and held publicworkshops in several locations throughout the region September22-25, 2008. The governing

. boards ofall five districts approved the plan at duly noticed public hearings on January22 (Sacramento), February 2 (Feather River), February 10 (EI Dorado County), February 11 (Yolo-Solano), and February 19,2009 (Placer County). The Sacramento Air District has made minortechnical corrections to the plan since its adoption bythe local boards. The corrections are available at http://www.airquality.org/notices/CAPUpdate/8hrAPandFEIRHearinqsJanFeb2009.shtml The corrections do not materially affect any conclusions in the plan. At the Board meeting, the Board will consider adoption ofthe 2009 Sacramento Metro Area 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan as a revision to the SIP. The Board will also consider an emissions reduction commitment as shown in the table below, providing the reductions that, along with reductions from local and federal measures, will allowthe Sacramento area to achieve attainment ofthe ozone standard by 2018. Summary ofEmission Reduction Commitments- Sacramento
Year NOx ROG 

### 2018 13 11

ARB staffwill present a written Staff Report at the meeting. Copies ofthe report may be obtained from the Board's Public Information Office, 1001 "I" Street, 151 Floor, Environmental Services Center, Sacramento, CA 95814, (916) 322-2990, at leastten days priorto the Board meeting. The report mayalso be obtained from ARB's internet site atthat time at http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/sip.htm. Interested members ofthe public may also present comments orally or in writing at the meeting, and in writing or by email before the meeting. To be considered bythe Board, written comments not physically submitted at the meeting must be received no later than 12:00 noon, Wednesday, March 25, 2009, and addressed to the following: Postal mail: Clerk ofthe Board, Air Resources Board 1001 I Street, Sacramento, California 95814 Electronic submittal: http://www.arb.ca.gov/lispub/comm/bclist.php Facsimile submittal: (916) 322-3928

iiiThe Board requests, but does not require, 30 copies ofanywritten submission. Also, the ARB requests thatwritten and email statements be filed at least

### 10 days priorto the meeting so that ARB staffand Board members have time to fully consider each

. comment. Further inquiries regarding this mattershould be directed to Laura Lawrence, Air Pollution Specialist, (916) 324-9264, 1001 "I" Street, Sacramento, California, 95814.

Date: February 24, 2009 · CALIFORNIAAIR RESOURCES BOARD


### Is! James N. Goldstene Executive Officer

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. reduce energyconsumption. Fora list ofsimple· waysyou can reduce demand andcutyourenergy costs, 

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ivTABLE OF CONTENTS


### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

...,....................................:........................................................ 1 I. BACKGROUND

...· .......................................,...........................................................3 Profile ofSacramento

........:.....................................................................................3 Health Effects of Ozone
.........................................:...:..........................:.................3 Historical Air Quality
......................:.........................................................................4 II. AIR QUALITY PLANNING.......................................................................................8 Air Quality Planning Background.............................................................................8 8-hour Ozone Planning Requirements
.........................:..........................................8 Ill. PLAN EVALUATION .............................................................................................10 Baseline Emissions Inventory ............................................................................... 10 Attainment Demonstration..................................................................................... 14 Control Strategy .................................................................................................... 15 Commitmentsto Reduce Emissions ..................................................................... 17 ReasonablyAvailable Control Technology
..........................:................................. 18 Transportation Control Measures.......................................................................... 18 Contingency Strategy............................................................................................18 Reasonable Further Progress ............................................................................... 19 Transportation Conformity Budgets....................................................................... 19 IV. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ..............................................................................20 V. LEGAL AUTHORITY.............................................................................................20 VI. STAFF RECOMMENDATIONS

..................;..........................................................21



### v[This page intentionally left blank.]

viEXECUTIVE SUMMARY The federal Clean AirAct (the Act) establishes planning requirements forthose areas that routinely exceed the health-based National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). These nonattainment areas must develop and implement a State Implementation Plan (SIP)that demonstrates how theywill attain the standards by specified dates. Federal law holds each state responsible for implementing the provisions ofthe Act. In July 1997, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) promulgated a new 8-hour NAAQS for ozone. U.S. EPA-classified the Sacramento Metro Area.as a "serious" nonattainment area with an attainment date ofJune 2013. The five air districts that comprise the Sacramento Metro NonattainmentArea have requested from U.S. EPA voluntary reclassification to "severe-15," with an attainment date of June 2019. The five airdistricts in the Sacramento nonattainment area developed the Sacramento Regional8-Hour Ozone AttainmentandReasonable FuftherProgress Plan with input from interested parties. The region's attainment demonstration indicatesthat new State and local measures, togetherwith State, local, and federal controls already in place, will reduce emissions sufficiently by 2018 to allow Sacramento to attain the ozone standard bythe June 2019 deadline. This staff report contains a proposed State commitmentfor reductions from the measures in the 2007 California State Strategy. These reductions had not been quantified at the time the 2007 State Strategywas adopted in September2007. Major reductions come from the Heavy-DutyTruck Rule, adopted by ARB in December2008. Reductions frorn emissions from construction equipment and future changes in the smog check program are also important. ARB staff has reviewed the Plan and concluded that it meets applicable federal State Implementation Plan (SIP) requirements. ARB staff also concludes that the implementation ofthe Plan would reduce ozone levels through the Sacramento area to the benefit ofpublic health and result in attainment ofthe 8-hour standard by June 2019. ARB staff recommends that the Board approve the December2008 version ofthe Plan as a revision to the California SIP and directthe Executive Officerto submit the Plan to U.S. EPA.



### 1[This page intentionally left blank.]



### 2. 

### ' I. BACKGROUND
Profile ofSacramento The Sacramentofederal non-attainment area is comprised ofall ofSacramento and Yolo Counties and includes portions of El Dorado, Placer, Solano and Sutter Counties (see Figure 1). On the westernmost edge, it extends to the inland side ofthe California Coastal Range, and continues to the border ofthe Lake Tahoe air basin to the east, taking in portions ofthe Sierra Nevada Mountain Range. It extends southward to the Sacramento Delta Region and northward to include the southern portion ofSutter County; the elevation in the region varies from near sea level to over 7000 feet. Figure 1. Sacramento Metro NonattainmentArea

Sacramento Metro NonattainmentArea

...

·' 

# ·+·;' '

The area includes mountainous terrain, agricultural land, lakes and rivers, as well as one of California's largest urban areas. While winters in the valley are mild, summer generally brings very hotweatherto the valleyfloor, with temperatures routinely exceeding 1

### OO'F. Mountainous areas are considerably cooler in both summer and winter. Air quality in the region is affected by both local emissions and ozone and ozone precursor emissions transported from the San Francisco Bay Area.
Health Effects ofOzone Ozone is a highly reactive gas thatforms in the atmosphere through complex reactions between chemicals directly emitted from motorvehicles, industrial plants, consumer products and many other sources. Ozone is a secondary gas, formed in the atmosphere bythe interaction of reactive organic gases (ROG) and oxides ofnitrogen (NOx) in the presence ofsunlight.


### 3Considerable research conducted overthe past 35 years has shown that ozone can lead to inflammation and irritation ofthe tissues lining human airways. This causes the muscle cells in the airways to spasm and contract, thus reducing the amount ofairthat can be inhaled. Symptoms and responses to ozone exposure vary widely, even when the amount inhaled and length ofexposure is the same. Typical symptoms include cough, chesttightness, and increased asthma symptoms. Ozone in sufficient doses can also increase the permeability ("leakiness") of lung cells, making them more susceptible to damage from environmental toxinsand infection. Medical studies of large populations have found that ozone exposure is associated with an increase in hospital admissions and emergency room visits, particularly for lung problems such as asthma .and chronic obstructive pulmonary disea·se. Several studies have also associated exposure to high ozone levels with increased premature mortality in elderly people with chronic diseases ofthe lungs and circulatory system. People who exercise orwork outdoors are at greater risk ofexperiencing adverse health effects from ozone exposure because they inhale more ozone. One study in soutHern California found that children who participated in more sports activities in high ozone areas were more likelyto develop asthma than those who participated in fewer sports. Children and adolescents are at increased risk because they are more likelyto spend time outdoors engaged in vigorous activities, and because they inhale more ozone per pound ofbodyweightthan adults.
Historical Air Quality The numberofdays overthe standard (exceedance days) is an indication ofhow frequently the population is exposed to unhealthful airquality. Although some monitoring sites in the region still exceed the 8-hour standard of 0.08 parts per million (ppm), the size ofthe area thafexceeds the standard has dramatically decreased since 1995, as shown in figure 2. ·



### 4

### Figure 2. Sacramento Metro Area 8-HourOzone Exceedance Days (1995-2005)


### Sacramento Metro NA 8-Hr Ozone 3-yrAvg of Exceedance Days

Legend**O,~,,s~sn** Ocouotv 

### '"' 6·15 IT;lKJj15-50 -51·100 -101• 1995 (93-95)



### Sacramento Metro NA 8-Hr Ozone / /" 3-yrAvg of Exceedance Days ,-' 2005 (03·05) / ) /.------**,~·-;·**

._..-./-"-····-.

.....______ .. ..-• ,-.!'r'

Legend**c:JAtrB~sln** Oeounly


# ... D:Z"il 16-so msl-100 -101•



### 5 10J31100'

11lJ3111>11Ozone "design values" are used to characterize a region's airqualityfor SIP planning purposes. The design value is a three-year average ofthe annual fourth highestdaily maximum 8-hour ozone concentrations. The use ofthe three-year average helps minimize the year-to-year influence of meteorology. Figure 3 shows that, while some areas in the region still have high design values, the designvalue has decreased markedly in many parts ofthe region. The airquality monitors at Cool in El Dorado County and Folsom in Sacramento County have recorded the region's highest ozone levels forthe lastten years. These · monitoring sites are both in the eastern portion ofthe nonattainmentarea, in the foothills ofthe Sierra Nevada Mountains, and are impacted by emissionsfrom the urban areas to the west-"



### 6

### Figure 3. Sacramento Metro Area 8-hour Ozone Design Value (1995-2005)


### Sacramento Metro NA 8-Hr Ozone

Legend I::JMBU5il> Qcot101y
•0.000.006-1 0.005.0.094 Design Value 1995

i**i]~** 0.005·0109 -0,110-0.129

..0.130• IJ.l/01 107**~ ~~~~~---'** 


### Sacramento Metro NA 8-Hr Ozone Design Value

Legend I::JMBa£ill c=:Jcoumy 0.000.0.00.: 0.0!55. ()_094 f.:UXI O.O!l5. 0.109 Em 0.110·0.12g .0.130• 2005



### 7 ()4/Ql/07II. AIR QUALITY PLANNING
Air Quality Planning Background The federal Clean AirAct (the Act) establishes planning requirements forthose areas that routinely exceed the health-based National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). These nonattainment areas must develop and enact State Implementation Plan.s (SIPs)that demonstrate howtheywill attain the standards by specified dates. State law1 designates ARB as the State's air pollution control agencyfor all purposes setforth in federal law, including the preparation ofthe SIP. State lawfurther specifies that ARB must adoptthe nonattainment area plan approved by a local air district, unless ARB finds, after a public hearing, thatthe locally adopted plan will not meetthe requirements ofthe Act.2 California SIP revisions must be submitted to U.S. EPA by ARB. The provisions and commitments in a U.S. EPA-approved SIP are federally enforceable. The Act also allows interested parties to sue U.S. EPA, the state, or local agencies to compel implementation ofan approved SIP.
8-hour Ozone Planning Reguirements In July 1997, U.S. EPA promulgated a NAAQS for ozone that requires that ozone concentrations not exceed 0.08 ppm over an 8-hour period. 'in April 2004, U.S EPA finalized Phase 1 ofthe ozone implementation rule,3 which setforth the classification scheme for nonattainmentareas. U.S. EPA classified the Sacramento Metro Area as a "serious" nonattainment area with an attainment date ofJune 2013. The five airdistricts that comprise the Sacramento Metro NonattainmentArea have requested ·from U.S. EPAvoluntary reclassification to "severe-15." As a "severe-15" area, the Sacramento Metro Area has until June 2019to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. On November 9, 2005, U.S. EPA supplemented its Phase 1 implementation rule with a Phase 2 rule.4 The Phase 2 rule outlines the emission controls and planning elements that nonattainment areas must address in their implementation plans, including:

• air quality modeling that demonstrates attainment ofthe 8-hour ozone standard; • a weight-of-evidence analysis; • adopted control strategies capable of meeting attainment, and contingency reductions in the eventthe controls fall short ofachieving needed reductions;

1 California Health and Safety Code (HSC) section 39602. 2 HSC Section 41650(a). 3 Federal Register: April 30, 2004 (Volume 69, Number 84, pages 23951-24000) 4 Federal Register: November29, 2005 (Volume 70, Number 288, pages 71612-71705) 

### 8• demonstration that all reasonably available control technology (RACT) has been applied to existing sources; • reasonable further progress plans to show ongoing progress toward attainment; and • transportation conformity emission budgets to ensuretransportation plans and projects are consistent with, and will not hinderattainment. In orderto demonstrate attainment ofthe 8-hourozone standard by June 2019, all of the emission reductions needed for attainment must be in place by the beginning ofthe full ozone season in the prioryear, 2018. ARB staff has reviewed the plan and determined that it includes all ofthe required elements listed above. These various plan elements are summarized in Section Ill. Staffconcurs with the districts' conclusion thatthe reductions listed in the plan are sufficientto show attainment bythe 2018 deadline.



### 9Ill. PLAN EVALUATION The 2009 Sacramento 8-Hour Ozone Plan is the latest step in the airquality planning process that overthe years has helped define 9ewactionsto improve the Sacramento region's airquality. The districts released their draft plan on September 10, 2008 and held publicworkshops in several locations throughout the region. The governing boards ofall five districts approved the plan at duly noticed public hearings on January22 (Sacramento), February 2 (Feather River), February 10 (EI Dorado County), February 11 (Yolo-Solano), and February 19, 2009 (Placer County).
Baseline Emissions Inventory Sacramento's main sources ofemissions are on-road vehicles, including passenger vehicles and heavy-duty diesel trucks, reflecting the region's large urban and suburban population, as well as its role as a goods movement hub. Though the region does have bus and light rail service, particularly in the downtown Sacramento area, the primary mode oftransportation is passengervehicles. Other large sources ofozone precursor emissions are off-road agricultural and construction equipment, recreational boats, and consumer products. Emissions from industrial activities make up a much smaller portion ofthe inventory. Tables 1 and 2 showthe top 25 sources of NOx and ROG in the region for 2008 and 2018. The tables demonstrate that emissions of both precursors will decline markedly bythe attainmentyear.

10Table 1. NOx Emissions (tons/day): Summer Season Emissions Inventory Sacramento Metro NonattainmentArea Source Category 2008 2018 HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS 57 25 PASSENGERVEHICLES 29 13 Light Trucks, Minivans andSUVs 13 6 Medium Duty Trucks 5 3 PassengerCars 11 4 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (CONSTRUCTION AND MINING) 15 8 FARM EQUIPMENT (COMBINES AND TRACTORS) 10 5 LOCOMOTIVES 9 9 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (OTHER) 8 5 AGRICULTURAL IRRIGATION PUMPS 6 4 RECREATIONAL BOATS 6 6 GASOLINE-FUELED COMMERCIAL TRUCKS 6 4 RESIDENTIAL FUEL COMBUSTION 3 3 Cooking <1 <1 Other{Clothes Dryers, BBQs, PoolHeaters andFireplaces) 1 1 Space Heating <1 <1· WaterHeating 2 2 MANUFACTURING AND INDUSTRIAL (BOILERS, IC ENGINES) 3 3 SERVICE AND COMMERCIAL (BOILERS, IC ENGINES) 2 3 AIRCRAFT 2 3 ?HIPS AND COMMERCIAL BOATS (Includes OCS) 2 1 ELECTRIC UTILITIES 1 2 OTHER (FUEL COMBUSTION) 1 1 MOTORCYCLES 1 1 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (LAWN AND GARDEN) 1 1 PUBLIC TRANSIT BUSES 1 1 SCHOOL BUSES 1 1 MOTOR HOMES 1 <1 COMMERCIAL TRANSIT BUSES 1 <1 MINERAL PROCESSES (MINING, CEMENT MANUFACTURING) <1 1 OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION (COMBUSTION) <1 <1 AG BURNING <1 <1 ALL OTHER SOURCES <1 1 TOTAL 167 101



### 11Table 2. ROG Emissions (tons/day): Summer Season Emission Inventory Sacramento Metro Nonattainment Area Source Cate!lorv 2008 2018 PASSENGER VEHICLES 33 19 Light Trucks, Minivans andSUVs 13 9 Medium Duty Trucks 4 3 PassengerCars 16 7 RECREATIONAL BOATS 18 16 CONSUMER PRODUCTS 13 15 ARCHITECTURALCOATINGS (PAINTS AND THINNERS) 4 5 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (LAWN AND GARDEN) 6 5 OFF-ROAD RECREATIONAL VEHICLES 5 7 PETROLEUM MARKETING (GASOLINE EVAPORATIVE LOSSES) 4 5 GASOLINE-FUELED COMMERCIALTRUCKS 4 2 HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS 4 2 MOTORCYCLES 4 4 COATINGS (PAINTS AND THINNERS- NON ARCHITECTURAL) 3 4 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (OTHER) 3 2 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (CONSTRUCTION AND MINING) 2 1 CHEMICAL (PROCESS AND STORAGE LOSSES) 2 2 GAS CANS 2 1 PESTICIDES 2 2 DEGREASING 1 2 FARM EQUIPMENT (COMBINES AND TRACTORS) 2 1 LIVESTOCKWASTE (RANGE CATTLE) 1 1 RESIDENTIAL FUEL COMBUSTION 1 1 Cooking <1 <1 Other(Clothes Dryers,

**BBQ~,** PoolHeaters andFireplaces) 1 1 Space Heating <1 <1 WaterHeating <1 <1 PRINTING 1 1 OILAND GAS PRODUCTION (EVAPORATIVE LOSSES/FLARING) 1 1 ASPHALT PAVING I ROOFING 1 1 LIVESTOCKWASTE (DAIRY CATTLE) 1 1 PRESCRIBED BURNING 1 1 ALL OTHER SOURCES .14 15 TOTAL 136 117



### 12Table 3 summarizes the emissions reductions from 2008, the base yearforthis plan, to 2018, that are the result ofState and local emissions reductions programs in place as cif

.2006. This table does not include reductions from measures in the 2007 California State Strategy. Substantial reductions are projected, especiallyfor.the on-road motor vehicles category.

Table 3. Baseline EmissionsTrends with Measures Adopted as of2006 Sacramento Metro Area Summer Planning Inventory (tons/day) NOx ROG Source 2008 20185 Percent 2008 20186 Percent Category Change Change Stationary & 19 20 7% 50 60 20%' Areawide

. On-Road

Motor 95 45 -53% 45 27 -40% Vehicles Off-Road Vehicles 53 38 -27% 41 34

**-16~** and Equipment

TOTAL 167 104 -38% 136 121 -11%

Emission Reduction Credits Federal New Source Review (NSR) rules require new and modified majorstationary sources that increase emissions in amounts exceeding specified thresholds to provide emission reduction offsets to mitigate the emission growth. Emission reduction offsets represent either on-site emission reductions orthe use of banked emission reduction credits (ERGs). ERGs are voluntary, surplus emission reductions that are registered with the Districtforfuture use as offsets.

5 Includes 3tons/day NOx ERC ' Includes 4 tons/day ROG ERC Table 4. Emission Reduction Credits Sacramento Metro Area (tons/day) Pollutant ERC Total NOx 2.3 ROG 3.5



### 13The district added the banked ERGs shown in Table 4 intothe 20.18 emission inventory used in the modeling demonstration ofattainment. This ensures that these ERGs, which could be used to enable growth at major sources atanytime, are fully accounted for in the inventories used to demonstrate attainment ofthe 8-hourozone standard.
Attainment Demonstration Sacramento's attainment date underthe "severe-15" classification gives it a June 15, 2019 attainment date. In accordance with U.S. EPA modeling guidance, the region needsto demonstrate a design value less than 0.085 ppm forthe 2018 ozone season in orderto attain the standard. ARB performed the photochemical modeling on behalfofthe districts. That modeling when accounting for reductions from regulations adopted through 2006 predicted a 2018 design value of0.088 ppm, which exceeds the 0.08 ppm attainment standard. Reductions from additional measures are, therefore, neede.d forthe region to attain the standard by 2018. Further details on the photochemical modeling can be found in Appendix B ofthe local plan element. Based on the modeling results, forthe region to meetthe standard, the districts determined that 2018 N.Ox emissions will need to be reduced by 12.5 percent and 2018 ROG emissions by 3.3 percent beyond the levels that will be achieved with regulations adopted through 2006. Table 5 summarizes howthose 12.5 percent and 3.3 percent reductions will be achieved in tons per day. These reductions will come from new local measures and measures in the California 2007 State Strategy. ARB adopted the 2007 State Strategy in September2007. Since then, ARB has completed rulemaking on many ofthe measures in the 2007 State Strategy. As a result, measures have been adopted to achieve most ofthe necessary emission reductions as indicated in Table 5.



### 14Table 5. Emission Reduction Summaryfor2018 Attainment Sacramento Metro Area Summer PlanninQ (tons/day NOx ROG Emission Reduction Target in Percent 12.5% ·3.3% Emission Reduction Target intons/day 13 4


# , t. cH<,:::!:',•,\'·\'' ,''. 

### ;:''< .'· ·.. :·· .·'" 

### : .. :·. 

### ·:: : oO'''>' : 

### .·: :•,:·

## ..,; Emissions Reductions from State Measures Adopted 11 3 since Dec. 2006 Emissions Reductions from New State Measures 2 8 Emissions Reductions from Local Measures Adopted 0 1 since Dec. 2006 Emissions Reductions from New Local Measures 3 2 Total Reductionsfrom Recently Adopted and 16 14 New Measures


### Weight of Evidence Analysis Sacramento's attainment plan incorporates a supplementaryweight of evidence analysis as required under U.S. EPA's April 2007 Final Guidance on the Use of Models and OtherAnalyses forAttainment ofAir Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze. The analysis concludes that the evidence indicates the adopted emission controls will reduce ozone concentrations to the level needed to meetthe 8-hour ozone standard bythe statutory attainment deadline ofJune 15, 2019.


### Control Strategy Local Strategy Local airdistricts are responsible for controlling emissions from most stationary and areawide sources. Such sources include factories, power plants, gas stations, dry cleaners, residential water heaters, and managed burning. The five districts have adopted a variety ofcontrol measures to control emissionsfrom these sources. The local plan element includes commitments to develop and adopt new measures and to arnend existing measures to,strengthen controls. These measures will target architectural coatings, automotive refinishing products, degreasing and solvent.cleaning products, metal parts coatings, natural gas processing, portable asphalt dryers, water heaters and boilers, and stationary internal combustion engines. The newdistrict measures forthe five districts are expected to provide an additional 3tons/day NOx reductions and 

### 3tons/day ROG reductions.

15State Strategy ARB isresponsiblefor controlling emissions from mobile sources, C\msumer products, and fuels. ARB's on-going mobile source control program will provide significant NOx and ROG emission reductions in Sacramento. Vehicles and equipment operating in California are subjectto the most stringenttailpipe emission standards in the world. ARB's existing on-road vehicle emission control programs in Sacramentowill decrease NOx emissions by morethan 50 percent and ROG emissions by about 40 percent between 2008 and 2018. New measures in the 2007 California State Strategy, including the Heavy-DutyTruck Rule adopted bythe Board in December2008, will provide additional reductions. Thetruck rule alone will provide an additional 10 percent reduction in on-road mobile source NOx emissions in Sacramento. ·For informational purposes, Table 6 shows the expected NOx and ROG emission reductions from measures in the 2007 State Strategy in Sacramentofor2018. The local plan elementTable 7-1 is similarto this document'sTable 6. ARB staff's understanding ofthe emissions reductions from U.S. EPA's line-haul locomotive rule has changed since the districts published the local plan. Staff initially predicted emissions benefits for Sacramento, but we now understand that the rule will have 

### very little impact on Sacramento emissions. Table 6 is updated to reflectthis change.



### 16Table 6. Expected Emission NOx and ROG Reductions from 2007 State Strategy Measures (tons/day) Sacramento MetroArea: 2018 Proposed New SIP Measures NOx ROG PassengerVeliicles·• 

### '

.....<:·· 1,; 

## . ·, 

### 1.;7 ,;,

**li/"?·:~·-~** 

### .;;;:0 ·

## ... . ·,· 

## .. Smog Check Improvements (BAR) 1.4 1.3 Expanded Vehicle Retirement 0.3 0.2 Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline Program 

## -- 1.1



### j,(eav}';J)lltY;"J."ruc~if

## ..>'· ,,·.

# < .··.· <.. •·.'' x'\.•:.·:,



### ·~. ,·.· • ·• '<9;5'·•, 

# ···I' '·.

**:~** 

# :;,, Cleaner In-Use Heavy-DutyTrucks 9.5 0.8 G<)ods

**Mo'femeritSo~rceJ!** . ·· · ..· 

### .· :< 

## ·< 0.2 

## ...

# ,' :

**().~;.:,**

### ;• ' ·. Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft 0.2 0.0 off::R.oad

**Equipfn~nf** · .. 1.9 0.{/,• ' Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment (over 25hp)7 1.9 0.4 ptherOff-Road Sources 0.3 6:1·•

New Emission Standards for Recreational Boats 0.3 3.0 Expanded Off-Road Rec. Vehicle Emission Standards 0.0 2.7 Additional Evaporative Emission Standards 

## -- 0.4 ·Areawide Sources·
. .. . ··. 

## .. ·:
.1.9. .··

Consumer Products Program - 1.9 ·Emission Reductionsfrom Proposed New Measures 13 11

Commitmentto Reduce Emissions Table 7 below describes the emission reduction commitment proposal for Board approval. ARB staff proposesthat ARB commit to achieve the emission reductions set forth in this table by 2018. These reductions, along with reductions from local and federal measures, will allowthe Sacramento area to achieve attainment ofthe ozone standard by 2018. Table 7 Summary of Emission Reduction Commitments- Sacramento
Year NOx ROG 

### 2018 13 11

7 Benefits from rule as adopted byARB. Does not reflect February 2009 budget agreement impacts.
17ReasonablyAvailable Control Technology U.S. EPA has issued a variety ofControl Techniques Guidelines (CTGs) describing stationary-source control standards required to meetthe-Reasonably Available·Control Technology (RACT) requirements in the CAA. Each district is responsible for evaluating their rules to determine compliance with RACT. Each ofthe five districts submitted initial RACT SIPsto U.S. EPA in 2007 (Yolo-Solano Air District in January 2007; El Dorado County, Feather River, Placer County and SacramentoAir Districts in July2007). Districts are in the process ofamending oradopting new rules, as necessary, to meettheir RACT SIP commitments. U.S. EPA issued additional CTGs afterthe July2007 RACT SIP submittals. Sacramento Air District submitted an updatetotheir RACT SIP to address these additional CTGs in January 2009. Feather River Air District intendsto submit a RACT SIP update by mid-2009. Yolo-Solano Air District, whose original RACT SIP submittal was disapproved by U.S. EPA, plans to submit a revision to address approvability issues as well as the additional CTGs laterthis year. Placer County and El Dorado CountyAir Districts plan to submit RACT SIP updates after2009. Transportation Control Measures U.S. EPA has indentified Transportation Control Measures (TCMs) that must be evaluated as part ofa Reasonably Available Control Measure Analysis. TCMs include optionsfor reducing vehicle use orfor reducing conditions that lead to highervehicle emissions. The adopted local plan includes avariety ofTCMs, including transit fleet acquisitions, park and ride lots fortransit, bicycle and pedestrian funding projects and transportation demand managementfunding programs. The Board of Directors ofthe Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG), the area's Metropolitan Planning Organization, approved the TCMs for inclusion in the plan during theirAugust 2008 Board meeting. ContingencyStrategy U.S. EPA requires each plan to identify contingency emission reductions that will take effectshould an area fail to attain by the attainment date specified in its SIP. U.S. EPA also requires in the SIP a demonstration that additional contingency emission reductions are available for each milestone year, should they be needed. These reductions must carne from measuresthat will take effectwithoutfurther action. U.S. EPA has interpreted this to mean that the contingency reductions must come from measures that have already been adopted. Sacramento's plan relies on the existing State mobile source control measures to satisfy contingency requirements. These measureswill continue to be implemented, and to reduce motorvehicle emissions, regardless ofthe region's attainment status in 2019.

18The additional reductions the existing motorvehicle program will yield in 2019 serve as contingency in case the region does notattain the ozone standard on time.
Reasonable Further Progress To ensure that.nonattainment areas make consistent progresstowards attainment of. the ozone standard, nonattainment areas are required to show a three percent peryear reduction in both ROG and NOx emissions, averaged overa three-year period, up to the attainmentyear. Since the region has previously submitted to U.S. EPA a 2008 Reasonable Further Progress demonstration, the current plan includes demonstrations forthe 2011, 2014 and 2017 milestone years as well as the 2018 attainmentyear. The demonstration is summarized in Table 8.

Table 8.Reasonable Further Progress Sacramento Metro Area Summer Planning Inventory (tons/day) 2011 2014 2017 2018 Required percent change since 2002 (ROG or NOx) 27% 36% 45% 48% Three percent required for contingency 3% 3% 3% 3% Total percent reduction required 30% 39% 48% 51% '•. ,. ' ' ·· ..· '' 

## ., ',, ·... 

### ·, ' 

### '".::. [,/•::•.•: Percent ROG reduction since 2002 17% 20% 21% 21% Percent NOx reduction since 2002 19% 26% 32% 33% Total percent reduction 36% 46% 53% 55% : RFP met? YES YES YES YES Contingency provision satisfied? YES YES YES YES

Transportation Conformity Budgets Sacramento's plan establishes on-road motorvehicle emissions transportation conformity budgets for 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2018 forthe Sacramento nonattainment area. The emission budgets reflectthe latest planning assumptions and were developed using ARB's latest on-road mobile source emission factor model EMFAC2007. The newemission budgets, based on summer planning dailyemissions for ROG and NOx, are shown in Table 9. The budgetswere developed from activity data provided by the SACOG, and are consistent with the latest Metropolitan Transportation Plan, MTP 2035. ARB incorporated the SACOG activity data into the EMFAC2007 motorvehicle emission model. EMFAC outputs were also adjusted to accountfor baseline emission reductions not reflected in EMFAC2007.

19The emission budgets established in this plan fulfill the requirements ofthe Act and U.S. EPA regulations to ensure thattransportation projects will not interfere with progress towards, and attainment of, the national 8-hour ozone standard.

Table 9. MotorVehicle Emissions Budgets Sacramento Metro Area Summer Planning Inventory (tons/day) 2011 2014 2017 2018 NOx 78 61

**4~** 34 

### voc 38 32 29 24

IV. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS The California EnvironmentaLQuality Act (CEQA) requires that State and local agency projects be assessed for potential significant environmental impacts. Air quality plans are "projects" that are potentially subject to CEQA requirements. The Sacramento Metropolitan Air District contracted with an environmental consultantto prepare an Environmental Impact Report (EIR) forthis plan. TheEIR, which is available through the SacramentoAir District, identified and analyzed the possible environmental effects ofthe. plan. The EIR concluded thatthe impacts ofthe plan on air quality and hazards/hazardous materials would be less than significant. Furthermore, the plan found no potentially significant adverse affectsfor other environmental indicators studied. ARB staff has reviewed .the EIR and concurs thatthe plan will have less than significant environmental impacts.

V. LEGAL AUTHORITY The Act requires states to provide forthe attainment of national ambient air quality standards. The primarytool to be used in the effortto attain national ambient air quality standards is a plan that any state with one or more nonattainment areas rnust develop, which provides for implementation, maintenance and enforcement ofthe standardsthe State Implementation Plan (section 110(a)(1)). Section 110(a)(2)(A) ofthe Act broadly authorizes and directs statesto include in their SIPs: "

...enforceable emission limitations and other control measures, means or techniques (including economic incentives such as fees, marketable permits, and auctions ofemission rights), as well as schedules and timetables for compliance, as rnay be necessaryorappropriate to meetthe applicable requirements ofthe Act."

20State law charges the ARB with coordinating State, regional, and local efforts to attain and maintain both State and national ambient air quality standards. The directstatutory link between ARB and the mandates ofthe Clean AirAct is found in section 39602 of the Heath and Safety Code (HSC). This provision states: "The state board is designated the air pollution control agencyfor all purposes setforth in federal law. The state board is designated as the state agency responsible forthe preparation ofthe state implementation plan required by the Clean AirAct (42 U.S.C., Sec. 7 401, et seq.) and, to this end, shall coordinate the activities ofall districts necessaryto complywith that act."

VI. STAFF RECOMMENDATIONS As described in this report, ARB staff has reviewed the 2009 Sacramento Regional 8-Hour Ozone Attainment and Reasonable Further Progress Plan, and consulted extensivelywith the staff atthe local air districts during this review. ARB stafffinds thatthe 2009 Sacramento Regional 8-hour Ozone Attainment and Reasonable Further Progress Plan meets applicable requirements. Stafffurther concludes that the implementation ofthis plan would reduce ozone levelsthroughout the Sacramento area, benefit public health, and result in attainment ofthe 1997 8-hour ozone standard by June 15, 2019. Therefore, we recommend that the Board take the following actions: 1. Adoptthe 2007 Sacramento Regional 8-hour Ozone Attainment and Reasonable Further Progress Plan as a revision to the California SIP, including the control strategy, emission inventories, attainment demonstration, reasonable further progress demonstration, and motorvehicle emission budgets. 2. Committo achieve emission reductions of 13 tons/day NOx and 11 tons/day ROG by2018. 3, Directthe Executive Officerto submitthe plan to U.S. EPA as a revision tothe California SIP. 4. Directthe Executive Officerto subrnitto U.S. EPAthe districts' RACT SIP elernents, as the districts adoptthose elernents.

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