US Department of Energy

Workshop on Water Heaters

Water Heater Analysis

Results

July 23, 1999

^f

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
Engineering Analysis

Results (Electric)

Electric Water Heater (50 gal): HFC-245fa-Blown Foam

# Selected Design Option Combinations EF Total Installed Cost

Baseline (existing) 0.8600 345.66

0 Baseline (245fa) 0.8601 349.01

1 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps 0.8780 355.26

2 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps + Insulated Tank Bottom 0.8822 361.39

3 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps + Insulated Tank Bottom + 2" 0.8967 388.77

Insulation

4 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps + Insulated Tank Bottom + 2.5" 0.9077 408.07

Insulation

5 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps + 2.5" Insulation + Plastic Tank 0.9099 444.50

6 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps + 3" Insulation + Plastic Tank 0.9180 510.83

Electric Water Heater (50 gal): Water-Blown Foam

# Selected Design Option Combinations EF Total Installed Cost

Baseline (existing) 0.8600 345.66

0 Baseline (Water-Blown) 0.8601 361.02

1 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps 0.8780 367.27

2 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + Insulated Tank Bottom 0.8816 373.40

3 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + Insulated Tank Bottom + 0.8895 394.82

2.5" Insulation

4 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + Insulated Tank Bottom + 0.8981 459.23

3" Insulation

5 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + 3" Insulation + Plastic 0.9012 495.66

Tank_

2

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
Engineering Analysis

Results (Gas)

Gas-Fired Water Heater (40 gal): HFC-245fa-Blown Foam

# Selected Design Option Combinations EF Total Installed Cost

Baseline (existing) 0.544 330.15

0 Baseline (245fa) 0.543 376.35

1 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps 0.552 380.57

2 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps + 78% RE 0.565 395.54

3 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps + 78% RE + 2" Insulation 0.592 416.76

4 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps + 78% RE + 2.5" Insulation 0.599 431.47

5 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps + 80% RE + 2.5" Insulation 0.615 468.25

6 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps + 80% RE + 2.5" Insulation + Side-Arm + Electronic 0.700 636.89

Ignition

7 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps + 80% RE + 2.5" Insulation + Side-Arm + Electronic 0.709 654.60

Ignition + Plastic Tank

8 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps + 80% RE +3" Insulation + Side Arm + Electronic 0.715 716.40

Ignition + Plastic Tank

3

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
Engineering Analysis

Results (Gas)

Gas-Fired Water Heater (40 gal): Water-Blown Foam

# Selected Design Option Combinations EF Total Installed Cost

Baseline (existing) 0.544 330.15

0 Baseline (Water-Blown) 0.544 380.30

1 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps 0.552 384.53

2 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + 78% RE 0.565 399.50

3 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + 78% RE + 2" Insulation 0.583 414.49

4 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + 78% RE + 2.5" Insulation 0.591 430.58

5 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + 80% RE + 2.5" Insulation 0.607 467.36

6 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + 80% RE + 2.5" Insulation + Side-Arm + 0.691 635.99

Electronic Ignition

7 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + 80% RE + 2.5" Insulation + Side-Arm + 0.700 653.71

Electronic Ignition + Plastic Tank

8 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + 80% RE + 3" Insulation + Side-Arm + 0.706 714.61

Electronic Ignition + Plastic Tank

4

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
Engineering Analysis

Results (Oil)

Oil-Fired Water Heater (32 gal): HFC-245fa-Blown Foam

# Selected Design Option Combinations EF Total Installed Cost

Baseline (existing) 0.529 936.60

0 Baseline (245fa) 0.529 939.86

1 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps 0.539 954.81

2 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps+ 2" Insulation 0.555 1,007.11

3 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps+ 2.5" Insulation 0.558 1,023.23

4 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps+ 3" Insulation 0.561 1,048.03

5 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps+ 3" Insulation + 78% RE 0.582 1,167.39

6 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps+ 3" Insulation + 78% RE + 0.586 1,223.39

Interrupted Ignition

7 Baseline (245fa) + Heat Traps + 3" Insulation + 78% RE + 0.616 1,434.34

Interrupted Ignition + 82% RE Increased HX Area

5

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
Engineering Analysis

Results (Oil)

Oil-Fired Water Heater (32 gal): Water-Blown Foam

# Selected Design Option Combinations EF Total Installed Cost

Baseline (existing) 0.529 936.60

0 Baseline (Water-Blown) 0.529 970.53

1 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps 0.539 985.48

2 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps+ 2" Insulation 0.547 1,000.98

3 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + 2.5" Insulation 0.552 1,015.49

4 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + 3" Insulation 0.556 1,038.39

5 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + 3" Insulation + 78% 0.577 1,157.75

RE

6 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + 3" Insulation + 78% 0.581 1,213.75

RE + Interrupted Ignition

7 Baseline (Water-Blown) + Heat Traps + 3" Insulation + 78% 0.610 1,424.79

RE + Interrupted Ignition + 82% RE Increased HX Area

6

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
Water Heater Standards

Summar

Design Option Standard Levels:

ELECTRIC Standard LCC%

Level Savings Benefitting

1 Heat Traps + Insulated Tank Bottom 1 $53.00 97

2 Heat Traps, Insulated Tank Bottom + 2.5" 2 $13.00 56

Insulation

Heat Traps, Insulated Tank Bottom, 3" Insulation 3 ($69.00) 27

3,4 + Plastic Tank 4 ($69.00) 27

GAS Standard LCC%

Level Savings Benefitting

1 Heat Traps 1 $18.00 97

2 Heat Traps, 78% RE + 2" Insulation 2 $30.00 78

3 Heat Traps, 80% RE + 2.5" Insulation 3 ($17.00) 73

4 Heat Traps, 80% RE, 3" Insulation, Side-arm 4 ($245.00) 17

Heater, Plastic Tank + Electronic Ignition_

OIL Standard LCC%

Level Savings Benefitting

1 Heat Traps 1 $16.00 80

2 Heat Traps + 2.5" Insulation 2 ($32.00) 15

3 Heat Traps, 78% RE + 3" Insulation 3 ($153.00) 1

4 Heat Traps + 3" Insulation, Interrupted Ignition, 4 ($392.00) .4

Improved Heat Exchanger '7 '---------

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
National Energy Savings

and NPV

Standard Energy Savings NPV

Level (Quads) ($billion)

2 AEO low growth 3.28 .046

AEO reference 3.27 0.84

AEO high growth 3.27 1.18

4 AEO low growth 9.58 -21.30

4 AEO low growth 9.58 -21.30

AEO reference 9.55 -21.02

AEO high growth 9.53 -20.50

8

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
National Water Heater

Energy Consumption

." . ........... ':i t----- . ... 

4.5

4.0

3.5 C

3.0

2.5__~~ ~~ ~~~~- ~ Base Case

o 2.5 - ------- Std Level 1

3a>~~~~ --~~~~~A; ~Std ~~--- Level 2

'2.0 - - Std Level 3

- Std Level 4

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 --

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

9

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
v Projected Shipments

Trial Standard Level One Trial Standard Level Two

8 -. 8 l

7 - 7

6 - 6 -

65 Gas- 5 Gas -- '

:=_-4 ,: -

2E .a % Elece E . .--- oo Ao~ Elec o ^ ^ f 

3 bh 3 3

2 2

1~~~ 1 ~ LPG 1 L

LPG

yPOQQOOOO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oil oo 0O o1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Trial Standard Level Three Trial Standard Level Four

8 8

7- 7

6 6

6,^5' E _ e Gas - E 6 -- m5 1 Gas , ~ ----- I Gas.-.

3 3.1 A 

'*a

I

2 - _ 2 -

1 LPG 1 LPG LPG

.ooo2ooOoooooooo O. ;gcogo 0 0 0 0 0 Oi Ol Oil

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Energy Price: AEO 1999 Reference Case 10

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
Cumulative Emission

Reductions, 2003-2030

Standard Carbon NOx (kt) SO2 (kt)

Level (Mt)

1 17 46 41

2 50 150 201

3 80 240 401

4 1302 3802 501

'Only household emissions reductions

2Results uncertain due to fuel switching

11

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
MIA Analysis:

Industry Cash Flow

The Department used the Government Regulatory Impact Model

(GRIM) to conduct the Industry Cash Flow Analysis.

* GRIM is a tool that helps identify the financial impacts of energy

efficiency and other regulations on manufacturers.

* Based on conventional analysis of discounted cash flows

* Creates full computations of cash flow for three regulatory scenarios:

base case (as is), standards case (energy efficiency regulations only),

and cumulative case (all regulations facing industry)

* Computes industry values (NPV) for all scenarios

e Offers numerical and graphical comparisons

12

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
MIA Analysis:

Industry Cash Flow

The Department has developed a cash flow using industryaverage values for manufacturing costs, shipments, and

financial information.

* Manufacturer costs were estimated from the GAMA data submittal and

independent consultants.

* Financial information (e.g., tax rate, working capital, depreciation) is

obtained from manufacturers' 10-K statements, other publicly

available industry statistics (e.g., Robert Morris Associates), and

manufacturer interviews.

* Shipments are obtained from the "National Energy Savings

Spreadsheet" developed by LBNL.

13

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
MIA Analysis

Based on manufacturers' comments, below are the results expected

for each trial standard level (Business Scenario 3 from MIA):

Standard Base Case Cumulative Change in

Level INPV INPV INPV

(millions) (millions)

1 $ 295 $ 267 -9.5%

2 $ 295 $ 254 -14.0%

3 $ 295 $ 232 -21.5%

4 $ 295 $ 203 -31.2%

Standard Base Case Standard Change in

Level INPV INPV INPV

(millions) (millions)_

1 $ 295 $ 293 -0.7%

2 $ 295 $ 280 -5.1%

3 $ 295 $ 259 -12.3%

4 $ 295 $ 229 -22.5%

14

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
MIA Analysis

The results show required average costs to offset the investments

associated with each trial standard level.

$400.00 $350.00

$300.00 $300.00

wj*0~ ~~Price Curves$250

§ $200.00 $20.00

= ____ _---x---'^Z^Z^^y ^ .- * $200.00 Q00

E $100.00 --- X--__ --- L L

E *- X , X -$150.00 , 

$0.00 -

$100.00

$50.00 t =

I ($200.00) | ($200Investments$0.00 .o

($300.00) ($50.00)

($400.00) ($100.00)

1 2 3 4

Trial Standard Level

|_ Standards I I Cumulative -+Standards Price X Current Price - -- Cumulative Price

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
MIA Analysis:

Industry Cash Flow

The cumulative short-term cash flows, cumulative and standards scenarios

(Business Scenario 3):

Cumulative Case: Standards Case:

100 - 0 10

50 - 50

0 0

1998 1 Q9 1 1998IL 2001 2002208 004 2005

-50so

-100 v-100-

-150-

-150

-200 -

-200

~~~I---^-^ ---- + Base Case -- TS 1 I TS2 -- Base Case -m- TS 1 TS 2 -TS 3 -S

T-S- TS 3 - -- TS 4 16

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD
Impacts on

Manufacturing Capacity

Standard Impacts on Capacity

Level

1 No major impacts expected.

2 No major impacts expected.

3 Existing product would be obsolete and new

facilities would have to be constructed. Some

manufacturers may elect to leave the industry.

4 Existing product would be obsolete and new

facilities would have to be constructed. Some

manufacturers are expected to leave the industry.

17

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 78DD