### Appendix 8

- 1. CALGRID Z ero-Out Modeling

Mohamm ed A. Majeed, Ph.D. and P.E. Air Quality Managem e nt Section Delaware Departm e nt of natural Re sources and Environm ental Control Dover, DE May 2007

The NHDE P perform e d CALGRID zero-out modeling for a num ber of states including DE, PA, NJ, MD, and NY. The intent of the modeling is to assess whateach state contributes to the ozone m o nitors thatthe attainm e nt test does not dem onstrate attainm e nt of the 8-hour NAAQS. W ith this zero-out m odeling we estim ated Delaware’s contribution to the m onitors in the P A -NJ-DE-M D non-attainm e nt area. Figures 7-7, 7-8, 7-9, 7-10 and 7-11 show the result of CA LGRID zero-out m odeling for Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsyl vania, respectively. Figure 7-12 shows the indiv i du al contribution from each of the states to Colliers Mills, Ocean County, NJ monitor - w ith the tota l contribution being 23 ppb. Note that Delaware’s contribution to Collie rs Mills is on ly 9 % of the to tal contribu tion f r om these f i ve sta t e s . Modelin g with CALGRID for m odel perform a nce and future case runs ind i cated that CALGRID over predic ts ozo n e at these monitors. Theref ore, Delaware ’s 9% contribu tio n to Collier s Mills monitor is a conservative num b er.

10 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 110 12 0 1 3 0 14 0 1 50 1 6 0 1 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

-30 -20 -10 -5 -1 1 3 5 10 15 20 25 30 40 

### Episode Max i mum 8 -Ho ur Oz on e Difference Co nce n trat i o ns 200 9 Base minus 2009 Base w/Ze ro DE E m issions Ju ly 31 - August 16, 2002

Oz o n e Co ncentra t io ns ( PPB)

NHDES 1 2 /4/06
C A LGRID 2.4 5 M odelin g Dom a i n



### Figure 7-7. CALGRID Z ero-Out Modeling for Delaw a r e

20 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 00 110 120 13 0 1 4 0 1 5 0 160 1 7 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10 0 11 0 12 0 13 0 14 0 15 0 16 0 17 0

-3 0 -2 0 -1 0 -5 -1 1 3 5 10 15 20 25 30 40 

### Ep iso d e Max i mum 8-Hour Oz on e Diffe r e n c e Co nce n tratio n s 2009 Base minu s 2 009 Base Case - Zero Out Maryland July 30 - August 16 , 2002

Oz on e Concentrati o ns ( PPB)

NHD ES 11 /2 9/06 C A LG RID 2.45 Mo de l i n g Do ma i n



### Figure 7-8. CALGRID Z ero-Out Modeling for Marylan d

30 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 110 12 0 1 3 0 14 0 1 50 1 6 0 1 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

-30 -20 -10 -5 -1 1 3 5 10 15 20 25 30 40 

### Episode Max i mum 8 -Ho ur Oz on e Difference Co nce n trat i o ns 2009 Base min u s 2 009 Base w/Zero NJ Emission s Ju ly 31 - August 16, 2002

Oz o n e Co ncentra t io ns ( PPB)

NHDES 12 /13/0 6 C A LGRID 2.4 5 M odelin g Dom a i n 

### Figure 7-9. CALGRID Z ero-Out Modeling for New Jersey

40 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 110 12 0 1 3 0 14 0 1 50 1 6 0 1 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

-30 -20 -10 -5 -1 1 3 5 10 15 20 25 30 40 

### Episode Max i mum 8 -Ho ur Oz on e Difference Co nce n trat i o ns 2009 Base min u s 2009 Base w/Zero NY Emission s Ju ly 31 - August 16, 2002

Oz o n e Co ncentra t io ns ( PPB)

NHDES 1 2 /5/06 C A LGRID 2.4 5 M odelin g Dom a i n



### Figure 7-10. CALGRI D Z ero-O ut Modeling for New Yor k

50 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 110 12 0 1 3 0 14 0 1 50 1 6 0 1 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

-30 -20 -10 -5 -1 1 3 5 10 15 20 25 30 40 

### Episode Max i mum 8 -Ho ur Oz on e Difference Co nce n trat i o ns 2009 Base min u s 200 9 Base w/Zero PA Emission s Ju ly 31 - August 16, 2002

Oz o n e Co ncentra t io ns ( PPB)

NHDES 12 /18/0 6 C A LGRID 2.4 5 M odelin g Dom a i n 

### Figure 7-11. CALGRI D Z ero-Out Modeling for Pennsylvania

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### Figure 7-12 . Individual State Cont ribut ions to Collier s Mill Monitor, Ocean County, New Jersey

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