I<// E 

US. Department of Energy June 1999 

Life-Cycle Costs and Payback Periods for Clothes Washers 

Introduction 

The life-cycle cost (LCC) spread sheet is used to analyze the economic impacts of possible 

standards on individual consumers. The effect of standards on individual consumers includes a 

change in operating expense (usually decreased) and a change in purchase price (usually 

increased). This report describes results obtained after making changes to the LCC spreadsheet 

model and revising some inputs, as recommended in comments received after the publication of 

the Supplemental Advance Notice of Proposed Ruleinaking (ANOPR). 63 FR 64344. 

There are two basic outputs from this analysis: 

• Distributions of "LCC Difference" (i.e., the difference between the baseline LCC to the 

LCC for a given standard level) for each standard level. The baseline LCC is also 

discussed in this report, as a reference against which to compare the relative differences in 

LCC due to higher efficiency standards. The LCC Difference is evaluated using consumer 

marginal energy prices. 

• Distributions of payback periods for each standard level. 

Table 1 below summarizes the inputs used in the Supplemental ANO PR analysis and the changes 

made for the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NOPR) analysis. The major changes are as 

follows: 

• Marginal energy prices were substituted for average prices. Households for which 

marginal energy prices could not be calculated were eliminated, resulting in a reduction of 

approximately 10% of the households used from the Residential Energy Consumption 

Survey (RECS). . 

• Current (1998) prices and projected escalation rates were added for rural water and 

wastewater to the previous estimates for urban customers. The revised analysis divided 

water use into categories of urban, rural with water and wastewater utilities, rural with 

water utility service and septic tank, and individual well with septic tank. 

• Liquid petroleum gas (i.e., LPG or propane) was added as a water heater fuel type. 

• Annual Energy Outlook 1999 (AE099) forecasts replaced AE098 energy price forecasts 

for electricity, gas and oil. 

1 
• The extrapolation method for projecting the AEO energy prices from 2020 to 2030 was 

changed. (The AEO contains energy prices projections to the year 2020.) We are using 

the approach EIA uses to forecast fuel prices for the Federal Energy Management 

Program (FEMP). 

• Manufacturer markups were changed from a triangular distribution with endpoints of 1.00 

to 1.350 with a mean of 1.175, to a rectangular distribution with a different range for each 

standard level. The overall minimum and maximum markups were 0.54 and 1.48. (See 

Manufacturer Impact Analysis for details). 

2 
T a e bl 1 Ch anges mt h e LCC A I . na ysIS * 

Parameter Supplemental ANOPR NOPR 

Start Year ( Effective Date of Standard) 2003 Same 

Retail Prices: Baseline Clothes Washer Retail Price- $421 including Same 

tax; from retail price survey 

Lifetime Distribution (12 - 17 years) Same 

Cycles Per Year Distribution from RECS Same 

database (207 - 645) 

Energy Price Projections AEO 1998 reference case to AE01999 reference, high & low cases 

the year 2020, with to the year 2020, with extrapolations to 

extrapolations to the year the year 2030 

2030 

Water Price Urban ($0.00 to $7.84 per Urban 0 - $7.98 

1000 gallons) Rural 0 - $7.98 

Rural (no sewer) 0 - $f54 

Individual well 2.61 kWh/1000 gals. 

Ave. rate= $3.18 per 1000 Ave. rate= $2.66 per 1000 gals. 

gals 

Annual Real Change in Water and 0 percent Urban = 3.04% 

Sewer Cost (Water Price Projections) (high 5.43%, low 0.55%) 

Rural = 3.04% 

(high 5.43%, low 0.55%) 

Rural with septic = 0.67% 

(high 2.95%, low -2.88%) 

Individual well (electricity price 

escalation) 

Discount Rate Distribution (O - 15 percent) Same 

Energy Consumption Per Cycle AHAMdata Same 

Variation in Household Energy Prices, 1993 RECS data , Marginal prices derived from 1993 

Energy Use, and Water Heater Shares RECS data and adjusted to 1997 prices 

Retail Markup 1.4 1.4 

Manufacturer Markup Min. 1.000 Range: varies with standard level 

Mean 1.175 

Max. 1.350 

Distribution: triangular Distribution: rectangular 

* All prices and costs are shown in 1997 dollars. 

3 
Results Summary 

Uncertainty 

Because we are using a Monte Carlo method of analysis (i.e. random sampling from 

distributions), small variations in results are expected due to differences in which RECS houses 

were sampled. The results in this report are based on 10,000 samples per Monte Carlo run. 

Life-Cycle Cost and Difference in Life-Cycle Cost 

The baseline LCC is based on average energy prices from each RECS household, consistent with 

the household energy bill. The energy and LCC savings are evaluated using consumer marginal 

energy prices. Figure 1 below shows the frequency distribution for the baseline LCC (assuming 

AEO reference case, U.S. mix of fuels for water heaters and clothes dryers, and average 

escalation rate for water prices). 

Forecast: Baseline LCC 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 88 Outliers 

.020·_,..------;-------------------------.. 196 

... ··························································································-······················· 147 

-~ - ~ . .,Q 

O:;I 

.,Q 

Q 

..... 

.010 ·············-····· 

C"D· 

98.00~1 :::i. 

c.. 

.005 ············· 

.000 

$500 $1,375 $2,250 

$ 

Figure 1 Life Cycle Cost Baseline Frequency Distribution 

M:inimum = $512 Median = $1,513 Mean = $1,675 

~i 

49.00 

$3,125 $4,000 

Maximum = $5, 790 

Different households have different baseline LCCs, based upon a number of factors including the 

number of people in the home, the number of loads of laundry washed per week, the prices of 

e:nergy and water, and the price paid to buy a clothes washer. 

For the most likely scenario, the rate of change in future energy prices in the LCC and payback 

imalyses are from the AEO reference case. To bound the analysis we use the high and low 

4 
economic growth scenarios from the same source, the EIA fuel price forecasts in the Annual 

Energy Outlook 1999 (AE099). The high growth represents higher economic growth, increasing 

the demand for fuel and therefore increasing the price of fuel over the reference case. Similarly, 

the low growth fuel assumes a slower escalation of fuel prices. At the same time, we also 

estimated high and low scenarios for future water prices. 

Table 2 shows the reference case LCC results. Results are summarized for the change in LCC 

from the baseline by percentile groupings (i.e., percentile of the distribution of results). The mean 

mid the percent of LCCs that are reduced for each standard level are also shown. Tables 3 and 4 

show the results for high and low growth scenarios. 

I~xample: For a 10% Increase in Efficiency Level (row 2), Table 2 shows that the maxinlum (zero 

percentile column) change in LCC is savings of$242. (Negative values are net savings.) For 

90% of the cases studied (90th percentile), the change in LCC is savings of $14 or more. The 

largest increase in LCC is $17 (lOOth percentile). The mean change in LCC is a net savings of 

$43. The last column shows that 99% of the sample have reduced LCC (i.e., change in LCC less 

than or equal to zero). 

T .a bl e 2 S ummaryo fLCC R esu It s- AEO re ti erence 

Percent Change in LCC from Baseline Percent 

Increase Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results with LCC 

in (values in 1997$) Less than 

Efficiency Baseline 

Level 

0 10 25 50 75 90 100 Mean 

5 $(101) $ (34) $ (25) $ (17) 5(11) $(7) $ (1) $(19) 100% 

10 $ (242) $ (80) $ (54) $ (36) 5(23) 5(14) $ 17 $(43) 99% 

15 $(474) $(132) $ (87) $ (54) 5(31) 5(14) $ 75 $(65) 95% 

20 $ (534) $(153) $ (96) $ (53) S(21) $18 $163 $(6~) 85% 

25 S{l,718) $(490) $ (315) $(169) 9:59) . $17 $189 9:211) 87% 

35 S(2,827) $(692) $ (424) $(203) 5(38) $114 $675 $'.253) 80% 

40 3(2,453) $(690) $ (428) $(206) 9(41) $110 $666 ~252) 81% 

45 S(2,402) $(623) $ (360) $(138) $46 $207 $710 S{183) 70% 

50 S{2,206) $(647) $ (372) $(139) $40 $207 $657 S{l91) 70% 

5 
1r a e bl 3 s ummary o f LCC R l esu ts- AEO h. 121 h 2rowt h 

Percent Change in LCC from Baseline Percent 

Increase Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results with LCC 

in (values in 1997$) Less than 

Efficiency Baseline 

Level 

0 10 25 50 75 90 100 Mean 

5 $ (106) $ (39) $ (28) $ (19) S(13) $(9) $ (1) $(22) 100% 

10 $ (265) $ (86) $ (60) $ (39) S(25) S(16) $ II $(46) 99% 

15 $(518) $(142) $ (92) $ (57) S(34) S(l6) $ 75 $(69) 96% 

20 $(600) $(161) $ (103) $ (57) S(23) $ 16 $ 159 $(67) 86% 

25 3{1,978) $(603) $ (394) $(213) S{91) $ 0 $186 S{269) 90% 

35 3{2,932) $(850) $ (528) $(272) S{82) $68 $655 S(339) 85% 

40 3{2,837) $(852) $ (524) $(265) S{78) $71 $676 S(334) '84% 

45 3{2,887) $(771) $ (459) $(206) $ 0 $170 $695 S{264) 75% 

50 3{3,090) $(790) $ (468) $(203) $(2) $171 $664 5(270) 75% 

Table 4 Summary of LCC Results - AEO low growth 

Percent Change in LCC from Baseline Percent 

Increase Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results with LCC Less 

in (values in 1997$) than Baseline 

Efficiency 

Level ' 

0 10 25 50 75 90 100 Mean 

5 $ (96) $ (30) $ (22) $ (15) S(IO) $(7) $ 0 $(17) 100% 

10 $(246) $ (71) $ (49) $ (32) . S{21) ~13) . $ 19 $(38) 99% 

15 $(441) $(124) $ (81) $ (49) 3(29) . 3(12) $ 83 $(60) 95% 

20 $(461) $(136) $ (86) $ (47) S(l 7) $20 $160 $(66) 84% 

25 S(l,661) $(394) $ (248) $(128) 3{31) $38 $190 $'.159) 82% 

35 3{2,496) $(533) $ (319) $(138) $(3) $148 $688 S(l 72) 75% 

40 S(l,764) $(545) $ (330) $(144) $(1) $150 $659 S(l 75) 75% 

45 S(l,819) $(504) $ (286) $ (86) $86 $243 $677 S(l 17) 63% 

50 S(l ,849) $(507) $ (276) $ (82) $ 81 $228 $725 S(l 18) 63% 

6 
Figure 2 compares the LCC results for reference, high and low growth cases. For efficiency 

lc:vels up to 20%, there is very little difference between the three growth scenarios. 

l) 

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1et:: 

ns 

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·:;: 

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u 

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100% 

90% 

80% 

70% 

60% 

50% 

40% 

30% 

20% 

10% 

0% 

5 

• • •NOPR, High 

-0-NOPR, Reference 

• II ·NOPR, Low 

10 15 20 25 35 40 

Percent Efficiency Level Improvement 

45 50 

Fllgure 2 Consumers Having LCC Savings for Reference, High and Low Growth Scenarios 

7 
0 

0 

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·c 

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GJ 

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cu 

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100% 

90% 

80% 

70% 

60% 

50% 

40% 

30% 

20% 

10% 

0% 

5 

• • •ANOPR 

-0-NOPR, Reference 

10 15 20 25 35 

Percent Efficiency Level Improvement 

40 

]~igure 3 : Comparison of ANOPR and NOPR Life-Cycle Cost Results 

45 50 

Figure 3 is a comparison (before and after changes were made to the Supplemental ANOPR 

analysis) of the percent of households having a lower LCC for each efficiency increase level.. The 

input changes made to the LCC spreadsheet resulted in up to approximately a 5 percent 

reduction in households having a LCC savings, for the case of a 50 percent improvement in the 

dficiency level. 

Payback Period 

Simple payback periods (ratio of increase in purchase price to decrease in annual operating 

c::xpense) were calculated using the same distributions as for the LCC analysis. The payback is 

calculated based on the year the standard takes effect, in this case the year 2003. (Because this is 

a simple payback, washer lifetime, energy prices beyond the year 2003, and discount rates are not 

used.) Payback periods were determined for three scenarios: reference, and high and low growth 

energy price projections with corresponding average, high and low water prices and are shown in 

llables 4, 5, and 6, respectively. 

8 
1[' a e bl 4 s ummaryo f P b k P . d R ay. ac er10 esu It s- AEO re ti erence 

Percent Payback Period in Years 

Improvement in .. Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results 

Efficiency 

Level 

0% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 100% Mean 

5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 0.1 

IO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 27.8 0.6 

15 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 4.5 37.0 l.5 

20 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 5.5 l l.5 61.4 3.9 

25 0.0 0.9 2.1 4.l 6.7 10.0 51.5 5.0 

35 0.8 2.3 3.2 4.9 8.1 13.0 79.6 6.7 

40 0.8 2.3 3.2 4.9 7.9 12.8 110.9 6.6 

45 0.8 2.8 4.2 6.6 10.7 15.9 102.6 8.3 

50 1.2 3.0 4.4 6.8 10.5 15.6 95.8 8.3 

T a e bl 5 S ummaryo f P b k P . d R ay1 ac eno esu ts - AEOh" 1g1 h -erowt h 

Percent Payback Period in Years 

Improvement in Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results 

Efficiency 

Level 

0% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 100% Mean 

5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.0 0.1 

10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 19.2 0.6 

15 0.0 0.0 0.1 0;2 0.6 4.4 42.5 1.4 

20 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 5.5 11.6 .56.5 3.9 

25 0.0 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.3 9.4 69.7 4.7 

35 0.7 2.2 3.0 4.7 7.5 11.9 76.0 6.2 

40 0.9 2.2 3.1 4.7 7.5 12.2 77.7 6.3 

45 0.9 2.6 3.9 6.2 10.1 15.3 113.9 7.9 

50 0.9 2.9 4.1 6.4 10.0 14.8 84.5 7.9 

9 
T a bl e 6 S ummaryo f P b k P . d R ay1 ac eno esu It s - AEO I ow e:row th 

; 

Percent Payback Period in Years 

Improvement in Shown by Percentiles of the Distribution of Results 

Efficiency 

Level 

0% 10% 25% 50%. 75% 90% 100% Mean 

5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.4 0.1 

IO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 16.8 0.6 

15 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 4.7 37.2 1.5 

20 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 5.8 11.8 84.8 4.0 

25 0.0 0.9 2.2 4.4 7.2 10.7 57.7 5.3 

35 0.9 2.5 3.5 5.3 8.6 13.7 66.5 7.1 

40 0.9 2.5 3.5 5.2 8.4 13.5 98.8 7.0 

45 0.9 2.9 4.3 6.9 11.2 17.1 74.l 8.8 

50 1.2 3.3 4.7 7.2 11.0 16.4 ll4.9 8.8 

10 
Figure 4 below shows the mean payback periods for each standard level (for reference, high and 

low growth cases). The average lifetime for a clothes washer is 14 years. 

12 

c 

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0 8 

·.:: 

Cl) 

a.. 

.x 

CJ 

~ 6 

>- C'G 

a.. 

c 

m 4 

:iiE 

2 

5 

.. • •NOPR, High 

-0-NOPR, Reference 

• 1' •NOPR, Low 

10 15 20 25 35 

Percent Efficiency Level Improvement 

40 

Figure 4 Payback Periods for Reference, High and Low Growth Scenarios 

11 

- - A. 

45 50 
Figure 5 compares mean payback periods as calculated using Supplemental ANOPR and updated 

(NOPR) data. The reference case scenario is used in both cases. Payback periods increased by 

using the updated inputs for the analysis. 

12 

I!? 

ca 10 CJ) 

>-

c: 

"C 

.2 8 ... 

CJ) 

a.. 

.ll:: 

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~ 6 >. 

ca 

a.. 

c: 

m 4 ~ 

2 

5 

~ANOPR 

.. lllt ·NOPR, Reference 

,,II • -

10 15 20 25 35 40 

Percent Efficiency Level ~mprovement 

Figure 5 Comparison of ANO PR and NOPR Payback Period Results 

Detailed Results 

,...11---· 

45 50 

Detailed LCC frequency and cumulative charts for all standard levels are attached to this report. 

Charts are provided for scenarios of low, reference and high growth. The low growth LCC 

scenario includes figures 6 to 23; AEO reference growth scenario includes figures 24 to 41; and 

the high growth scenario includes figures 42 to 59. Payback Periods frequency charts are also 

provided and are labeled as follows: low growth, figures 60 to 68; reference growth, figures 69 to 

77; and high growth, figures 78 to 86. 

12 
185 Outliers 

.026_,--------------------=---------,_ 256 

·10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 

.019 .......................................................................................... . 

.013 ......................... u ................................................... .. 

.006 

($45) ($34) ($23) 

$ 

........................ - 192 

. ................... - 128 

. ............... 64 

($11) 

Figure 6 5°/o Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

185 Outliers 

..r---------------:-----~--:-:-:=-::;----,... 10000 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 

1.000 

.750 

~~ 

··-

.ic:::i .500 

I" 

.J::i 

I:) 

, ... .250 Cl. 

·····················································································-················· 

...................................................................................... -.... 

($45) ($34) ($23) 

$ 

($11) 

0 

Fi~:ure 7 5% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

13 
10,000 Trials 

.035 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 119 Outliers 

349 

~ ·--·-.ci 

~ 

.ci 

Cl 

t... 

c. 

.026 

.017 

.009 

($88) ($50) $25 

Certainty is 99.13% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

261.7 

.,,1 -.: 

t'I 

174.5 ~ 

t'I 

=' 

87.25 ~ 

Pigure 8 10% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 119 Outliers 

-·-.ci 

~ 

.ci 

e 

t... 

c. 

1.000~--------------..--------==:-:---... 10000 

.750 ···············································································-············· 

.500 ···············································································-·· 

.250 ........................................................................ .. 

.000 ~ 

($125) ($88) ($50) $25 

Certainty is 99.13% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Ji'igure 9 10% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

14 
191 Outliers 

.038..r-~~~~~~~~~~~~-:-~~~~~~~~---,_ 378 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 

~ 

·--

.028 

.019 

.009 

.............................................................................. _. ................................................... - 283.5 

.............................................. 189 

......................................... - 94.5 

($200) ($131) ($63) $6 $75 

Certainty is 94.57% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

I -n· 

...... ! 

n. ! 

....c:i ! 

c: ! 

n.: 

::I ; 

~I 

F'igure 10 15% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 

1.000 

.750 

~ -·-.c .500 

= -= Q 

.... .250 c.. 

....................................................................................... 

............................................................................... 1 .. 

($200) ($131) ($63) $6 

Certainty is 94.57% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

191 Outliers 

10000 

- 0 

$75 

.,, 

-

n 

.Cl 

c 

n 

::. 

~· 

F'igure 11 15% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences 

15 
10,000 Trials 

.038 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 135 Outliers 

- 382 . 

~· 

·--..Q 

~ 

..Q 

0 

... 

a. 

.029 ................................................................ . 

.019 

.010 

.ooo....__~~ ............... ~ 

($250) ,($150) ($50) 

............................................................. 286.5 

·······················································- 191 

. ············································ 95.5 

$50 $150 

Certainty is 83.92% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 12 20% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 135 Outliers 

1.000.r-------------.---------------i... 10000 

~ 

·-·--..Q 

~ 

.c 

0 

... 

a. 

.750 .......................................................................... _ ........ . 

.500 

.250 

. 000 ...L.-_,...~ll&l.l.llJU&Ulj.UU.llUUU 

($250) ($150) ($50) $50 $150 

Certainty is 83.92% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 13 20% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

16 
Forecast: LCC Difference 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 132 Outliers 

-~ -

.025...r-----------------,,,------------,.. 263 

.020 .......................................................................................... . 

.013 ..................................................................... . 

.007 

($700) ($475) ($250) 

. ................................. 197.2 

($25) 

.,,i 

-.! 

C"I : 

························- 131.5~! 

C"I ' =' ! .................... _ 65.75 ~l I 

$200 

Certainty is 82.11 % from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 14 25% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 132 Outliers 

1.000..r----------------.------------=-:,...----,_ 10000 

-·-.c 

00 

.c 

e 

... 

c.. 

.750 

.500 

.250 

········-··················--··--···-··--·······················T············ 

.......................................................................................... t·· 

0 

($700) ($475) ($250) $200 

Certainty is 82.11 % from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Fiigure 15 25% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

17 
10,000 Trials 

.035 

-~ ·--

.026 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 110 Outliers 

352 

264 

.Cl .018 ........................................................... . ........................................................ - 176 

= .Cl 

0 

... 

Q. .009 .. ············································· 88 

($563) $313 $750 

Certainty is 75.03% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 16 35% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 110 Outliers 

1.000..r------------:--..-----------:-=,---,... 10000 

-·-

.750 

..::::::. .500 ..................................................................... . 

.Cl = 

0 ct .. 250 

. 000 .l.,_~l&UIJl.llqJUUIWU 

($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 

Certainty is 75.03% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

0 

$750 

Filgure 17 35% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

18 
10,000 Trials 

.033 

~ 

·--

.025 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequen_cy Chart 105 Outliers 

- 330 

··························································· - 247.5 

.,,i 

.... 

("ti j 

.Q .017 ................................................... . ························································ 165 .=i 

c: i 

ni i 

=: n•· '<; !' 

co 

.Q 

e 

'-

c.. .008 

($563) $313 $750 

Certainty is 74.78% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 18 40% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

110,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 

.~ 

·-·-·-·= co 

.1:1 

= '-

Cl. 

1.000....-----------:----------:== 

.750 ·································································-·········· 

.500 .................................................................... . 

.250 

($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 

Certainty is 74.78% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

105 Outliers 

10000 

- 0 

$750 

Fii~ure 19 40% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

19 

I 
10,000 Trials 

.031 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 109 Outliers 

313 

.023 .................................................... u ••••••••••••• ···························································- 234.7 

-

-~ ·-.Cl 

«:I 

.Cl 

0 

... 

a. 

..,,, 

..,: 

C"D .016 ....................................................... . ............................. ~ ................ - 156.5 -g 

.008 

. 000 ....._...,.... ........ .a&&4-11&& 

($1,000) 

C"D 

=' .···································- 78.25 ~ 

($563) $313 

Certainty is 63.22% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Fiigure 20 45% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

·10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 

1.000...-------------:--------== 

.750 ...................................................................................... . 

. 500 .......................................................................... . 

. 250 

.000..L.. .............. .llQ.llllWlllW~ 

($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 

Certainty is 63.22% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

109 Outliers 

10000 

0 

$750 

Fi:~re 21 45% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

20 
Forecast: LCC Difference 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart ·110 Outliers 

.030...r-------------=----=-------"-------....... 299 

.022 ·····················································- 224.2 

""Tl 

..., 

n 

.015 ·············································· 149.5-= c: 

.., 

::::i 

.007 ···································- 74.75 ~ 

($1,000) ($563) ($125) $313 $750 

Certainty is 62.51% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 22 50°/o Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 110 Outliers 

1.000..-----------~-.-------------------=---... 10000 

.750 

.500 

.250 

······································································r··········· 

................................................................................ ~: 

.000 j__-~ ......... wUJWllJWllli 

($1,000) ($563) $313 

Certainty is 62.51% from-Infinity to $0 $ 

$750 

Figure 23 50% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

21 
10,000 Trials 

.025 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 

.018 ················································································ ... 

.012 ......................................................................... . 

.006 

($38) ($25) 

$ 

($13) 

193 Outliers 

- 245 

183.7 

11 

... 

n 

122.5 .Cl 

c: 

n 

:::i 

................ - ,61.25 ~ 

~ - 0 

$0 

F'igure 24 5% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 193 Outliers 

1.000 

.750 

~ -·-.Q .500 

(ti 

.Q 

Q 

... .250 Q. 

~--------------r------==---i.. 10000 

····················································································r················· 

: ........................................................................................... '! .... 

($50) ($38) ($25) 

$ 

($13) 

0 

$0 

II -

n 

.Q 

c 

n 

= 

~ 

Figure 25 5°/o Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

22 
Forecast: LCC Difference 

·10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 194 Outliers 

.c 

~ 

,,Q 

0 

... 

11. 

.032...------------------:---------... 317 . 

.024 ....................................................................................... . 

.016 .......................................................................... . 

.008 

. 000 .J.._-f111.ll&LILl.U4JLU. 

·········································- 237.7 

"'T'll 

.... 

('II ! 

158.5 .Cl i 

c:: i 

C"l I 

::i ! 

·································- 19.25 ~I 

I - 0 

($125) ($88) ($50) ($13) 

Certainty is 99.35% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

$25 

Figure 26 10% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

110,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 194 Outliers 

·-·-• Cl 

~ 

·= 0 

... 

IJ. 

1.000...---------------..,..----------==,...--,_ 10000 

.750 ................................................................................................ . 

.500 ...................................................................................... . 

.250 ................................................................ . 

.ooo Lf&IW1111111Q11UWW 

($125) ($88) ($50) ($13) 

Certainty is 99.35% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

0 

$25 

Fi;~ure 27 10% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC 

Differences 

23 
10,000 Trials 

.036 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 164 Outliers 

358 

-~ ·-.c 

(t'I 

.c 

0 

... 

a. 

.027 268.5 

.018 179 . 

.009 .................................................... . 89.5 

. 000 ~ 

($225) ($150) ($75) 

lDIIllUlllllblmtJOIUJWllllULu1...._,_, ~- 0 . 

$75 

Certainty is 95.22% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 28 15% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Frequency Chart_ofLCC Differences 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 164 Outliers 

-

.c ·-

OJ:! 

,.Q 

Q 

... 

a. 

1.000..r-----------~------------,_ 10000 

.750 ......................................................................... _ ........... . 

.500 ..................................................... : ................... +. 

.250 

.000 .1--f&&l&a.UW~llllUW 0 

($225) ($150) ($75) $0 $75 

Certainty is 95.22% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Filgure 29 15% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC 

Differences 

24 
10,000 Trials 

.039 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 89 Outliers 

388 

~ 

·-

..c 

00 

..c 

c 

L. 

c. 

.029 291 

.019 ......................................................................... .. . ················································· 194 

.010 . ·······································- 97 

($188) ($75) $38 $150 

Certainty is 84.76% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 30 20o/o Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences 

·10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 89 Outliers 

.,r-~~~~~~~~~~~-:-~~~~~~~---~-.,_ 10000 1.000 

.750 

. ~ 

,.ell .500 

00 

• .c:i 

Q 

... .250 IJ.. 

Fi:gure 31 

.......................................................................................... 

................................................................................ 

($300) ($188) ($75) $38 

Certainty is 84.76% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

0 

$150 

20°/o Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC 

Differences 

25 
10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 200 Outliers 

.025 246 

.018 ································- 184.5 

~ -..c .012 123 ~ 

..c 

e 

~ .006 c.. 61.5 

.000 

($550) ($300) $200 

Certainty is 86.94% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Fiigure 32 25% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

·10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 200 Outliers 

1.000 10000 

.750 

.500 

.250 

Figure 33 

..................................................................................... _ ............... . 

...... · ................................................................................. t .. 

($800) ($550) ($300) $200 

Certainty is 86.94% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

25°/o Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC 

Differences 

26 

..,, 

.... 

.Cl " c 

n 

= 

~ 
10,000 Trials 

.031 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 133 Outliers 

308 

-~ -·-..c:l 

"«:i 

..c:l 

0 

... 

a. 

.023 ·····················································- 231 

.015 ............................................................. . ·················································· 154 

.008 

.000 J_~lllWQ.llll 

($1,250) 

.......................................... 77 

($750) ($250) $250 $750 

Certainty is 80.38% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

-n 

..., 

n 

...i::= 

c 

n 

= 

~ 

Figure 34 35% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

·10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 133 Outliers 

1.000...--------------:--------~==,----,.. 10000 

.750 ....................................................................... _. _________ . 

. 500 ....................................................................... -

.250 

.000 L.......,....wllQllllllllllU 

($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 

Certainty is 80.38% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

0 

$750 

Fii~ure 35 35% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC 

Differences 

27 
10,000 Trials 

.033 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 100 Outliers 

328 

~ 

·-·-

-

-= CG 

.c 

0 

... 

a. 

.025 ····················································· - 246 

.016 ......................................................... . ................................................. 164 

.008 ............................................ 82 

. 000 ...L.--fLLILILUJ1&1.A4U&LL 

($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 $750 

Certainty is 80.94% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 36 40o/o Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC 

Differences 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

·10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 100 Outliers 

,.Q 

CG 

,,Q 

e 

... 

IJ. 

1.ooo.r-----------....----------===-=--...._.10000 

.750 

.500 ....................................................... , ............. ":" 

.250 

.000 ~ 

($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 

Certainty is 80.94% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

0 

$750 

Figure 37 40% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC 

Differences 

28 
10,000 Trials 

.030 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 96 Outliers 

302 

.023 . ················································ 226.5 

...,,; 

-.! ("p I 

.015 ....................... , ............................................... . 151 .Cl! 

~i 

C"D ! 

::i ! 

.008 

Fiigure38 

·································- 75.5 

($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 $750 

Certainty is 69. 77% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

45% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC 

Differences 

~l I 

·10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 96 Outliers 

1.000..-------------;-------===---i- 10000 

.750 

.500 

.250 

Figure 39 

··--·······················································--··--r········· 

·········································································:· 

($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 

Certainty is 69. 77% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

$750 

45% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Cumulative. Chart of LCC 

Differences 

29 
10,000 Trials 

.030 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 106 Outliers 

- 302 

~ 

·-- .023 

.015 ............................................................. . 

.000 

($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 

226.5 

""T'll -.! 

ni 

151 .ca 

= rri 

=' ................................ 75.5 ~ 

$750 

Certainty is 69.88% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 40 50°/o Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC 

Differences 

·10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 106 Outliers 

1.000...r--------------.-------""'.'."'.":'==~ 10000 

·-·-·= ~ 

·= 0 

.... 

ll. 

.750 

.500 

.250 

·······································································T········· 

·········································································+· 

($1,250) ($750) ($250) $250 

Certainty is 69.88% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

0 

$750 

Fi:gure 41 50% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC 

Differences 

30 
10,000 Trials . 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 17 4 Outliers 

.02a.r------------------=--------... 284 

.021 ............................................................................................................ . 

.014 ................................................................................. .. 

.007 

($60) ($45) ($30) 

$ 

($15) 

213 

142 

71 

~ - 0 

$0 

..,,; 

.., ! 

('\'Ii 

.Q! 

c: ! 

t'D ! 

::i ! 

~! I 

Figure 42 5% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

174 Outliers 

1.000..-----------~-----::--------:=;;--,_ 10000 

110,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 

·-·-·= ~ 

,Q 

Q 

... 

[J. 

.750 ........................................................................................ _ ................ . 

. 500 ······················································································+··· 

.250 

($60) ($45) ($30) 

$ 

($15) 

0 

$0 

Fi1~ure 43 5% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

31 
10,000 Trials 

-·-.c 

~ 

.c 

0 

.... 

c. 

.034 

.025 

.017 

.008 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 

($106) ($63) ($19) 

Certainty is 99.47% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

108 Outliers 

- 337 

$25 

252.7 

"'Tl! .,.: 

Ml 

168.5 ~ 

Ml 

::i 

84.25 ~ 

Figure 44 10% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Frequency Chart ofLCC Differences 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 108 Outliers 

1.000...----------~---:-------===~-i.. 10000 

~ 

·--.c 

o;, 

.c 

0 

... 

c. 

.750 

.500 

.250 

··········································-······························-····r··········· 

.................................................................................. r··· 

($150) ($106) ($63) ($19) 

Certainty is 99.47% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

0 

$25 

Fiigure 45 10% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Cumulative Chart ofLCC Differences 

32 
·10,000 Trials 

.035 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 197 Outliers 

350 

.026 ......................................................................................... . ··············································· - 262.5 

.018 ............................................. ; .............................. . ···········:································· 175 

. 009 ·····································•·;- 87.5 

($225) ($150) ($75) $0 $75 

Certainty is 95.86% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Fi:gure 46 15% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

110,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 

1.000 

~ .750 -·-············:·······································--··1·········-·· 

·- ~ : 

.Q 

~ 

.Q 

e 

.... 

ll. 

.500 ········································································j··· 

.250 ···························································· 

($225) ($150) ($75) $0 

Certainty is 95.86% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

197 Outliers 

10000 

0 

$75 

Figure 47 15% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Cum~lative Chart of LCC Differences 

33 
10,000 Trials 

.037 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 128 Outliers 

367 

~ ·--.Cl 

00 

.Cl 

0 

... 

a. 

.028 ..................................................................... u ••••••• 

.018 ············································~·················· 

.009 

·······················································- 275.2 

-ni 

.... 

rlll 

··················································· 183.5 ~ 

rlll 

:w ........................................ 91.75 ~ 

I - 0 .000 ~ 

($300) ($188) ($75) $38 $150 

Certainty is 85.69% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 48 20% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 128 Outliers 

~ ·-

·-

-.Cl 

«J 

.Cl 

e 

... 

a. 

1.000..z----------------.------------...,_ 10000 

.750 

.500 .......................................................................... _ 

.250 ···························································· 

.000 ~ 

($300) ($188) ($75) $38 

Certainty is 85.69% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

0 

$150 

F;igure 49 20% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

34 
·10,000 Trials 

.028 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 

.021 ............................................................................................ -

~ - .014 

.007 

($1,000) ($700) ($400) ($100) 

Certainty is 90.03% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

166 Outliers 

- 284 

213 

""Tl 

.., 

n 14~ .Cl 

c: 

n 

~ 

71 Q 

- 0 . 

$200 

Figure 50 25% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

110,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 166 Outliers 

1.000..r------------------------=---,_ 10000 

• Cl 

(0 

,,Q 

Q 

... 

ll. 

.750 ........................................................................................ -................ . 

. 500 ....................................................................................... _ .. . 

.250 ..................................................................... . 

0 

($1,000) ($700) ($400) ($100) $200 

Certainty is 90.03% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Fi;~ure 51 25% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

35 
Forecast: LCC Difference 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 137 Outliers 

~ 

-·-

·-..0 

~ 

..0 

0 

... 

c. 

.033_,--------------,.------:----------...,,_ 327 

.025 ............................................................................ .. 

.016 ............................................................ . 

.008 

($938) ($375) 

. ················································ 245.2 

........................... ;. ............... . 

$188 $750 

.,,i 

-· C"D 

163.5 ~ 

C"D 

::::ll 

81.75 ~ 

Certainty is 84.67% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 52 35% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

·10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 

1.000 

········································································J·•·········· 

i ............................................................................. : .. 

.750 

.~ ·-,.Q .500 

o::t 

,.Q 

Q 

... .250 ll. 

($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 

Certainty is 84.67% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

137 Outliers 

10000 

0 

$750 

"'T1 

-

n 

.c:1I 

c 

n 

= 

~ 

Figure 53 35% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

36 
·10,000 Trials 

.033 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 126 Outliers 

- 334 

'~ 

,.Q 

~ 

,.Q 

Cl 

..... 

ll. 

.025 

.017 ......................................................................... . 

.008 

($1,500) ($938) ($375) 

················································ 250.5 

"'T'li 

..... 

ni ! ................................. , ........... - 167 -'='I 

=i 

C"'D i ::Ii ······································· 83.5 ~j 

$188 $750 

Certainty is 84.18% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Fi;gure 54 40% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

110,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 126 Outliers 

1.000..r-------------.,....-------===---... 10000 

,Q 

(11::1 

.c 

Cl 

..... 

ll. 

.750 

.500 

.250 

i 

i ............................................................................. r··········· 

: 

i 

········································································}· 

($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 

Certainty is 84.18% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

0 

$750 

.,, 

-

n 

.c 

c 

n 

= 

~ 

Figure 55 40% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

37 
Forecast: LCC Difference 

10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 109 Outliers 

.029 _,.----------------,---------------,_ 290 

.022 

.015 

.007 

($1,500) ($938) ($375) 

···········································- 217.5 

.,, 

--. 

n ······································· 145 .c:i 

$188 $750 

c: 

..., 

= 72.5 ~ 

Certainty is 74.99% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 56 45% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Cumulative Chart 109 Outliers 

1.000..r-----------~---.-----------=:-::-l... 10000 

~ 

·--.Q 

q;i 

.Q 

e 

a.. 

c.. 

.750 

.500 

.250 

~~-~:::::::: .. :.:.: .. :·:·:··::·::··:·~:·.::::::····:·::::::::····:~]-··········· 

0 

($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 $750 

Certainty is 74.99% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 57 45% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

' 38 
10,000 Trials 

.031 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

Frequency Chart 124 Outliers 

307 

~ ·-

·-

-.Q 

i:IO 

.Q 

e 

~ 

a. 

.023 ............................................................................. . 

.015 .......................................................................... . 

.008 

230.2 

"'T'll 

-.j 

nil l 

153.5 ~! 

nil i 

=: 

76.75 ~l 

.000 0 

($938) ($375) $188 $750 

Certainty is 75.13% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

Figure 58 50% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Frequency Chart of LCC Differences 

Forecast: LCC Difference 

·10,000 Trials Cumulative Chart 124 Outliers 

1.000...r---------------.------------==---,_ 10000 

.750 

.500 ................................................................................. _ .. 

.250 

.0001-...,...wL1&1.11w.l11LlllllllllllJU 

($1,500) ($938) ($375) $188 

Certainty is .75.13% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

0 

$750 

.,, 

-

n 

..Cl 

c 

n 

::I 

~ 

Figure 59 50% Effidency Level & High Growth: Cumulative Chart of LCC Differences 

39 
10,000 Trials 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 277 Outliers 

.387 

.290 

-~ -·-.Cl .193 

q;:i 

.g 

0 

... .097 c. 

.000 

_,.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--.... 3865 

................................................................................................................................................................ -

0.0 

..,, 

.... 

n ····································································································································- .c 

c 

n 

! = 

··········t················································:········:······························································ 966.2 ~ 

HMean = 0.1 I 

0.2 0.4 0.6 

~ - 0 

0.8 

Fiigure 60 5% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 286 Outliers 

.461 4607 

.346 ...................... _ ............................................................................................................................ . 

~ ·--.c .230 .................................................................................................................................................................... (ll:!I 

.Cl 

e 

... .115 c. 

.000 

..... . ............ -1;-::: .. :·~::1... ..... ... ................. · ........................................................... . 

ww~~~~~~~.--~..--~-.-;..._-.--~~~,.-Lo 

0.0 1.1 2.3 3.4 4.5 

Figure 61 10°/o Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

40 

..,, 

... 

n 

.c 

c 

n 

= 

~ 
10,000 Trials 

.239 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 348 Outliers 

2387 

~ ·-- ··--T···············································································-··- ......... ~ 

·············~ ..................................................................................................................... - = i 

C"D ! 

l == 

.179 

.119 

.060 ............ t ....................................................... ~........................................................... 596. 7 ~ i 

~ Mean= 1.5 

.000 J_.JJ.Wllau.~iiiiil~~;;.._----------.--...----,~,--J- 0 

2.8 5.5 8.3 11.0 

Figure 62 15% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

~I 0,000 Trials 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 242 Outliers 

~~ ·-

,,_ 

,,Q 

~ 

,,Q 

0 

... 

ll. 

.239-

.179 

.119 

.060 

. ~ 2387 

................................................................................................................................................ 

.............................................................................................................................................. 

"'Tl 

... 

n 

..c 

c 

n 

:::s ....................................................................................................................................... 596.7 ~ 

.000 ~ 

L •. 11111 .JI Mean = 4.0 I l_PlllllldU.U.UUllWiliijllllliJilll~ ....................... _____ -......~__,..~-,~,.--l..o 

0.0 5.6 11.3 16.9 22.5 

Fi:~ure 63 20% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

41 
10,000 Trials 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 186 Outliers 

.024 ..:---:c-:--~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--,_239 

.018 

.?:-

·-

·--.c .012 

ci:::ll 

,.Q 

Q 

.... .006 a. 

·.000 

...................................................................................................... 

0.0 4.4 8.8 13.1 

179.2 . 

:::t'1i 

n 

119.5.Q c: 

ni 

::::. 

59.75 ~ 

Filgure 64 25% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

·10,000 Trials 

.035 

.027 

.?:-

·--.c .018 

ci:::ll 

.c:I 

Q 

... .009 c. 

.000 

0.0 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 268 Outliers 

354 

·-··-:r:::.·::~_·:····:.:~~ .. ::.: ..... :.:::::~·::~::::·:::::·::.~:.:::··.:::::.·:~~.::::: 265.5 

177 

88.5 

JIUJJIUWlllllqJlallhllaal.l,~,--J- 0 

5.6 11.3 16.9 22.5 

Figure 65 35% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

42 
·10,000 Trials 

.037 

.028 

'~ 

,,Cl .019 

Ct! 

,,g 

Q 

a.. .009 ll. 

.000 

0.0 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 280 Outliers 

373 

. ··········-····························································································· 279.7 

5.6 

.L.. .................................................................. . 

.,,, 

;:; i 

186.5-= I 

c: ! 

n: 

::l ! 

·····················:······························~····························· - 93.25 ~ l 

WllJWIJJWW~!d&llU&la~~...--1. 0 

11.3 16.9 22.5 

Figure 66 40% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

110,000 Trials 

.033 

. c 

Ct! 

.c 

e 

a.. 

ll. 

.025 

.016 ............. . 

.008 ........... . 

.000..L..--:-~­

O.O 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 185 Outliers 

329 

········T····-···-· .. ············-·-·-················-··············-················· 246.7 

,, 

.... 164.5 ~ "' 

6.9 13.8 20.6 

"' = 82.25 ~ 

~ - 0 

27.5 

Fi:gure 67 45% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

43 
10,000 Trials 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 229 Outliers 

.029 

.022 

-~ .c .015 

.c "" 

0 

a: .007 

.000 

_,-~~~~~~~-,-~~~~~~~~~~~~~----,_290 

...................... 

0.0 6.3 

·····1·························································································- 217.5 

·················································································· 145 

72.5 

12.5 18.8 25.0 

Figure 68 50% Efficiency Level & Low Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

.,, 

.., 

C1I 

-= c: 

('1 

Q 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 285 Outliers 

.368 

.276 

~ 

.c .184 

"" .c 

0 

.... .092 a. 

.000 

-··· ····-····T················-·······-·-·············-·-·····--······································-··-·········· 

··········r····-·-·············-·····-·--·········-··-··········-············-·············--···--······ 

3675 

,, 

.... 

("'1) 

-= c 

n 

:::::::i 

......... 1:::·~·::~·; .................... _ ................ _ ............ --.. -.... -...... _ ......... __ 

918.7 ~ 

.lllJ.a, ....... ;;a;;;;;;::;;;;;.:::;::;;:::::,~.--~....-~-.-~-.-~--.~~~..,.-l..O 

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 

Figure 69 5% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

44 
10,000 Trials 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 268 Outliers 

.462 

.347 

~ 

·--.Cl .231 

(ti 

.Cl 

Q 

... .116 c. 

.000 

4622 

..... .: : :.: ::::::.:i.~~.:··:.:·:.::·:::::: :: : : .. : .. :::::::::::: :: : : : : ·::: :·: :::::::: .. :.:.::::.· .. : .. ·.·::::·.::.:: .. :·::: ·::·: ..... :. 

.... ············T:::·~-:~~---································· ··················································· 

_l__JUJ.llWJllilllii&;;;;;;;;~;::::::.__...~~-.-~--....~~-.-~--~~_,__J_O 

0.0 1.1 2.3 3.4 4.5 

Figure 70 10% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

'I 0,000 Trials 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 315 Outliers 

.240 

.180 

2'- "-·-. .c .120 

" ,.g 

Q 

... .060 IC. 

.000 

0.0 

.............................................................................................................................................................. 

........................................................................................................................................................ 

.................................................................................................................................................... 

2395 

i Mean= 1.5 llwaqia'l~~:;;:w;:;;:._'4-____ ~--.~~...,..-~---....-~~~o 

2.8 5.5 8.3 11.0 

Figure 71 15% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

45 
10,000 Trials 

.262 

l' 

·-

·-

-.Cl 

00 

.g 

Q 

.... 

a. 

.196 ..... 

.131- ..... 

.065 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 233 Outliers 

2615 

"'Tll 

.... 

rP 

.ci 

c:: 

Ml 

::::i 

653.7 ~ 

1 .. 1 • lJ Mean = 3.9 I .oooj_.JIJ~llldJllUJ.tll.tJ..iJIWDijiillmiii• ........ ~-----...,.----..--._,•~ o 

0.0 5.6 11.3 16.9 22.5 

Fiigure 72 . 20% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

·10,000 Trials 

.025 

.018 

~ -·-.Cl .012 

00 

,Q 

0 

... .006 c. 

.000 

0.0 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 

4.4 8.8 13.1 

124 Outliers 

245 

17.5 

183.7 

-n 

-

0 

122.5-g 

n 

= 

61.25 ~ 

Figure 73 25% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

46 
'I 0,000 Trials 

.039 

. 029 

.~ ·-

.,_ 

. .c .019 

. .c "" 

c:ii 

... .010 ii. 

.000 

0.0 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 

.. 

239 Outliers 

- 389 

··········1::: :::::.:::::: :: :· .. :.::::::::::::::::·:::::·:··::::::.:::.:::::::::: .. ·::::::::··.: .. :·.··: 

291.7 

-ni 

.... 

C"D I 

194.5 ..c:i I 

c, 

nl ! 

~I 

97.25 ~! 

5.6 11.3 16.9 

Fii~ure 74 35o/o Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

10,000 Trials 

.041 

.031 

:~ ·-·-.Q .021 ~ 

·= Q 

... .010 Cl. 

.000 

0.0 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 237 Outliers 

................................................................................................................ 

..................................................................................................................... 

5.6 11.3 16.9 

410 

307.5 

,, 

-

n 

205 .c 

c 

n 

~ 

102.5 ~ 

Fi1~re 75 40% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

47 
·10,000 Trials 

.030 

.023 

£' 

~ .015 

Cll;I 

,.Q 

0 

.... . 008 lil. . 

. 000 ~ 

0.0 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 235 Outliers 

302 

··········1··········································-··································· ·········. 226.5 ;;ii 

6.3 

························································································ 151 .::I c 

C"D 

=' 

~ 

12.5 18.8 

Figure 76 45% Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

·10,000 Trials 

.030 

.022 

.~ 

,.Q .015 

Cll;I 

,.:;i 

Cl 

... .007 IC.. 

.000 

0.0 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 21 O Outliers 

6.3 

298 

·····t·······································: ............................... : .................. - 223.5 

l ~ ... 

('D 

..................................................................................... 149 .c 

c 

C'll 

:::i 

.. ······························································· 74.5 ~ 

12.5 18.8 

Figure 77 50°/o Efficiency Level & Medium Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

48 
110,000 Trials 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 267 Outliers 

.392 

.294 

~~ 

.Cl .196 

(IO 

,g 

0 

... .098 [l. 

.000 

...r--:-~~~~~~-'--~~~~~~~~~~~~~--,_ 3915 

................................................................................................................................................................................ 

0.0 

""Tl 

... 

('I 

···································································································································· .Q . . c: 

n ~ ~ 

··········t···························································:····:······················································· - 978. 7 ~ 

H Mean= 0.1 I llwa~;;;;;;;;;;;~:::.._-.-~-.-~-.-~-.-~-.-~~~r---1-0 

0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 

Fii~re 78 5% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

110,000 Trials 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 262 Outliers 

.478 4779 

.358 

;~ 

·-

,,_ 

,Q .239 

(IO 

,g 

0 

... .119 ll. 

.000 

.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 

····· ........................................................................................................................................................... . 

...................................................................................................................................................... 

11Mean=0.6 I 

0.0 1.1 2.3 3.4 

~ - 0 

4.5 

Fii~ure 79 10% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

49 
10,000 Trials 

.254 

.191 

~ ·--·-..c .. 127 

«ll 

.i:i 

Cl 

... .064 a. 

-.000 

0.0 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 292 Outliers 

. 2543 

....................................................................................................................................................... -

""T'I 

.., 

(1 

··································································································································· ..c 

c: 

n 

l ~ 

···········+·····················································~······························································. 635. 7 ~ 

H Mean= 1.41 1111.ill&l,.iL.liiiiow;;;::;;:;;;:;;;:;;;:;:.......~~--~--.....-~--.-~~-.-~---,~ 0 

2.8 5.5 8.3 11.0 

Fiigure 80 15o/o Efficiency Level & High Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

10,000 Trials 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 222 Outliers 

.267 

~ .200· ··-· ··················l············································································································· 

I : ::: :._.: .. :::.:.:::~I~~~:~-~:~:I:·:::·:··:::.::.::.::.··:.:.····~··::.::~·-.· .... ~~: .... ~::.:··:·:.:::·:::.:··:: .000 ~ 

0.0 5.6 11.3 16.9 

~ 

22.5 

2668 

"'Tl 

-in 

.Cl 

i:: 

"' = 

667 ~ 

0 

Figure 81 20% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

50 
·10,000 Trials 

.023 

.018 

,_ ,,_ ~ 

,,Q .012 

00 

,,Q 

0 

.... .006 ll. 

.000 

0.0 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 206 Outliers 

234 

..... ······························;·············································· 117 

.... ··········································:···········- 58.5 

3.8 7.5 11.3 

Fii~ure 82 25% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

1 0,000 Trials 

.038 

.028 

~~ 

·-·-·- . .Q . 019 

or::i 

.Q 

0 

... .009 Cl. 

.000 

0.0 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 261 Outliers 

............................................................................................................. 

................................................................................................... 

375 

281.2 

..,, 

- 187.5 ... " c 

('Tl 

= 

93.75 ~ 

WWlllJLJllJ.b.u~:llud111;~.---l o 

5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 

Figure 83 35% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

51 
10,000 Trials 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 281 Outliers 

.038 ~~~~~~~--;-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--,__ 376 

············:[::.· .... ::.:::·::::.:::::::.: .... ::: ::~: :::: ... ::·:::::··:::: .... ::.:.::: : :::::.: ... : . : ::

.028 

~ 

-·-

·-.Q .019 

CIO 

.c 

Q 

94 ... .009 a. 

.000 

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 

Figure 84 40% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

10,000 Trials 

.032 

.024 

.~ 

·-

-.c .016 

«J 

.c 

e 

... .008 a. 

.000 ~ 

0.0 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 

6.3 12.5 

185 Outliers 

322 

241.5 

.,, .. 

- 161 oCI " c 

n 

= 80.5 ~ 

WW.l.U.llliladllll..u..J~W- o 

18.8 25.0 

Figure 85 45% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

52 
·10,000 Trials 

Forecast: Payback (yrs) 

Frequency Chart 170 Outliers 

.033 _,--~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-----,_ 329 

.025 ······+···························································································: 246.7 

.~ ·- l .,, : ~ . ~ 

,.Q .016 

00 ···························································································· - 164.5 ..c:;i . c 

,.i;i 

0 

... .008 ll. 

~ 

= . ······································································- 82.25 ~ 

.000 

0.0 6.3 12.5 18.8 

Fi;gure 86 50% Efficiency Level & High Growth: Distribution of Payback Period 

53