Slide 1Overview of Alaska Fisheries Harvest TrendsGunnar KnappProfessor of EconomicsInstitute of Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of Alaska AnchorageUpdated October 2009Slide 2This presentation provides a brief overview of harvest trends forAlaska’s five major species groups:salmon, herring, halibut, shellfishand groundfish. The purpose of the presentation is to get you to thinkabout two questions for each species group:• How much do harvests vary from year to year?– Are they relatively stable, or do they vary a lot?• What is the long-term trend in harvests?– How have average harvests changed from decade to decade?– What have average harvests been in recent years?Slide 3The salmon fishery is Alaska’s oldest fishery by far. This graph shows thetotal number of salmon harvested in Alaska every year since 1890. Since1900, the harvest has never been less than 20 million fish.Alaska Salmon Harvests050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

number of fish (thousands)Slide 4Salmon harvests vary widely from year to year. This is because eachgeneration of salmon encounters different conditions throughout its lifecycle—which affect how many salmon return from the ocean each year tospawn (and how many eggs are laid to start the next generation).Alaska Salmon Harvests050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

number of fish (thousands)Slide 5There have also been significant longer-term cycles in Alaska salmon catches.Salmon catches were high in the 1930s and 1940s but fell off drastically in the1950s, 1960s and 1970s. Since the 1980s, salmon catches have been muchhigher compared to earlier periods. Scientists believe that one of the causes oflonger-term cycles in salmon catches has been periodic long-term changes inocean conditions (temperature, currents, etc.). These changes in ocean conditionsare known as “regime shifts.” Future regimeshifts could result in periods of lowersalmon harvests.Alaska Salmon Harvests050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

number of fish (thousands)Slide 6Sockeye, pink and chum salmon account for most of the volumeof Alaska salmon catches.Harvests of each species can vary widely from year to year. Sockeye salmon harvests areparticularly important because sockeye is oneof the highest-priced salmon species. A sharpdecline in sockeye harvests fromthe mid-1990s to 2002 caused a major decline inthe value ofAlaska’s salmon harvests—but sockeye harvests have rebounded considerably since 2002.Alaska Salmon Harvest Volume0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0900.01000.0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

millions of poundsChumPinkCohoSockeyeChinookSlide 7A major contributor to Alaska salmon harvests since the 1980s has been the Alaskasalmon hatchery program. About 40% of the pink salmon and about70% of the chumsalmon harvested in Alaska are not natural wild fish, but rather fish released by salmonhatcheries, located mostly in southeast Alaska and Prince William Sound.Enhanced (Hatchery) Share of Alaska Salmon Harvests0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0% 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008ChumPinkSockeyeAll speciesSource: AlaskaDepartment of Fishand Game, AlaskaSalmon EnhancementProgram AnnualReportsSlide 8Since the 1990s, hatchery salmon have typically accounted for between 30%and 40% of total Alaska commercial salmon catches.Alaska Commercial Salmon Catches Since 1960:Natural Wild Salmon and Hatchery Salmon050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

thousands of fishHatcheryNatural wildSlide 9This graph shows the natural wildsalmon harvests since the 1890s (in blue). Looking only at naturalwild salmon catches, harvests since the 1980s have been better thanin the 1930s and1940s—but notas dramatically better as thetotal catches including hatchery fish might make you think.Alaska Commercial Salmon Catches Since 1890:Natural Wild Salmon and Hatchery Salmon050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

number of fish (thousands)HatcheryNatural wildSlide 10Alaska herring harvests have fallen off in recent years compared with the 1980sand 1990s but remain reasonably strong and stable compared with earlier periods.Volume of Alaska Herring Harvests01020304050607080 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Source: National Marine Fisheries Service

thousand metric tonsSlide 11Alaska halibut harvests increased dramatically in the 1980s. Harvests tend tochange only gradually as the International Pacific Halibut Commission adjustsharvest quotas as stocks change gradually. Quotas have been declining forthe past several years.Volume of Alaska Halibut Harvests0510152025303540 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Source: National Marine Fisheries Service

thousand metric tonsSlide 12Alaska shellfish harvests have historically been subject to boomsand busts. Note how muchhigher Alaska shrimp harvests werein the 1970s! The ocean conditions that were unfavorablefor salmon at that time were relatively more favorable for shrimp. Currently Opilio & Bairdi craband King crab resources are at fairly low butstable levels. Why shellfish resources crash is notwell understood. Overharvesting is not necessarily a primary cause.Volume of Alaska Shellfish Harvests020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Source: National Marine Fisheries Service

thousand metric tonsOpilio &Bairdi crabKing crabDungenesscrabShrimp &other shellfishSlide 13After rising dramatically duringthe 1980s due to “Americanization” of the fisheries, harvests byAmericans of Alaska groundfish have generally beenrelatively high and stable. However,pollock harvests declined significantly in 2007and 2008, as Bering Sea pollock stocks declined.Scientists are concerned thatfuture pollock stocks could be adversely affected by climatechange.Volume of Alaska Groundfish Harvests0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Source: National Marine Fisheries Service

thousand metric tonsOther groundfishAtka mackerelPacific codAlaska pollockSlide 14Trends in Alaska fish harvestsSUMMARY• Harvests of most species havebeen fairly strong over the pasttwo decades.• Harvests of hatchery fish have contributed to large salmonharvests since the 1980s.• Shellfish harvests are much smaller than in earlier boomperiods.• A significant decline in the harvests of pollock—by far thelargest species in terms of catch volume—began in 2007.• Harvests of some species (salmon, herring, crab) vary widelyfrom year to year. Harvestsof other species (halibut,groundfish) are more stable from year to year.• In the future, climate change could result in significant changesin Alaska fishery resources and catches. But it’s very hard topredict what those changes might be and what may occur.