# OAR Box 1830 Prepped by Ollie Stewart

Document

Number: 

# 2 ) IV-A- 9 Docket Number: 

# A-87-1 1

Printed 11/13/20087:20:50AM Sheet 2 of 232 p. 1P. 2

EPA-AA-TEB-EF-91- x

Th e MOBILE 4 Fue l Consumptio n Mode l

Apri l 199 1 

# BBfilFi r

Mar k A . Wolcot

t U.S . Environmenta l Protectio n Agenc y An n Arbor , Michigan Denni s F . Kahlbau m Compute r Science s Corporatio n An n Arbor , MichiganP. 3

NOTIC E Thi s documen

t ha s no t been pee r an dadministratively reviewe dwithin EP A an di s fo r interna l Agenc y use/distributio n only .

\j^

NOTIC E Technica l Report s do no

t necessaril y represen t fina l EP A decision s o

r positions . The

y ar e intende d t o presen t technica l analysi s o

f issue s using dat

awhich ar e currentl y available . Th

e purpos e i

n th e releas e o f suc h reports i s t

o facilitat e th e exchange o

f technica l informatio

n an dt o infor mth e public o f technica l development s tha

t ma y for mthe basi s fo

r afinal EP A decision , positio n o

r regulator y action .P. 4

Table o f Contents Page I . Backgroun

d 1 II . Input s 2 A . Vehicl e Stoc k 2 B . Registration Distribution s 9 C . Vehicl e Mile s Travele

d1 0 D . Diese l Marke t Penetratio n 1 1 E . Fue l Econom y 1 2 F . Tota l Emission s 1 3 III . Outputs 1 4 A . Flee t Fue l Consumptio

n 1 5 B . Flee t Vehicl e Mile s Travele

d1 5 C . RoadMP G 1 5 D . Vehicl e Registration s & Tota

l Emission s 2 1 IV . Sensitivit

y 2 1 Reference s R- l Appendixe s A . Mode l Input-Table s A- l B . Mode l Input-Figure s B- l C . Mode l Input-Prompts C- lP. 5

Th e M0BILE

4 Fue l Consumptio

n Mode l I . Backgroun

d Th e MOBILE

4 Fue l Consumptio

n (M4FC ) mode

l wa s developedt

o estimat e gasolin e an d diesel fue l used b y moto r vehicles . I

t i s basedon th

e MOBILE

4 mobile sourc e emission s model 1 an d predict s th

e amoun t o f gasoline , diese l an

dalternative * fuel s consumedfo r eac h o f seve n vehicle classes . M4F C is , i n severa l respects , differen

t fro mit s predecessor , th e MOBILE 3 Fue l Consumption model (M3FC) . Bot h the registratio n an

dvehicl e mile s travele ddistribution s hav e bee n updated t

o MOBILE

4 levels . Separat

e cit y an dhighwa y fue l efficiencie s have bee

n include d an d allowanc e i s mad

e fo r the gradua

l shif t to urba n driving . Also , th

e model no

w directly read s output fro mth e MOBILE

4 emission s model andestimate s ton s o f hydrocarbon s (HC) , carbon monoxid e (CO) , oxide s o

f nitrogen (NO x ) an

dcarbon dioxid

e (C0 2 ) . Severa l differen t fue l consumptio n model s hav e bee n develope dove

r th e years. 2 ' 345

- 6 None , however , i s consisten t wit h MOBILE4 . Sinc e MOBILE 4 i s the emissio n model used t o evaluat e presen t an d potentia l moto r vehicle regulations, i

t i s desirable t

o estimat e th e benefits fro

m thos e regulation s wit

h afue l consumptio n model fo

r which th e underlyin g assumption s ar e th e same . Whil e the primar

y concer n behin dth

e Agency' s regulation s i s the public' s healt h an d welfare , thes e quantitie s ar e difficul t t o measure . Ton s o

f pollutant s eliminate dan

d ambien t concentration s reduce d tend to b e easie r to estimate . I

n the past , MOBILE4 , i

n combinatio n wit

h Rollbac k an d EKMA, 7 wer

e sufficien t t o estimat e th e surrogate s t

o healt h an dwelfare . MOBILE 4 itsel f estimate s gram s o

f carbo n monoxide , hydrocarbon s andoxide s o f nitrogen emitte d fo

r eac h mil e avehicl e travels . In general , thes e pollutio n estimate s ar e no t particularly sensitiv e to fue l economy . Thi s i s particularly tru e wit h respec t to ligh t dut y vehicle s (LDV) an d ligh t dut y truck s (LDT) . Refuelin g emission losse s as calculatedi n MOBILE4,* * however , depen don tota l vehicle mile s travele d (VMT ) an

d fue l econom y (mpg) , a s well a s man

y othe r factors . Further , the benefit s fro

mcontrollin g fue

l volatilit y are , i n part , afunction o

f th e tota l volum e o f gasolin e consumed . A fue

l consumptio n model base don MOBILE 4 lend s itsel f

to calculatin g the fue

l consumption benefits o

f controlling fue

l volatilit y mor e readil y tha n MOBILE

4 use dby itself . Th e principl e o

f computing fue

l consumption i s basically simple . Tota l fue l consumed i s afunction o

f th e total numbe

r o f vehicles , th e numbe

r o f mile s eac h vehicl e travels , an d eac h vehicle' s fue

l economy . Therefore , the mor e vehicle s ther

e ar e an dthe mor e mile s the y travel , th e mor e fue l they wil l consume . O

n th e othe r hand , th e greate

r the fue l econom y thes e vehicle s obtain , th e les s fue l the y wil l consume .

* Sinc e the input s fo

r the alternativ e fuel s section s o f the mode l ar e undergoing interna

l EP A review fo r th e Alternativ e Moto

r Fuel s report , the scenario s includedi n thi s repor t assum e all vehicle s ar e powered b

y conventiona

l fuels . * * Actua

l refueling losse s depen

dupo n the numbe

r o f refuelin g events .P. 6

I n the section s tha

t follo w adetaile ddescriptio n o f eac h model inpu t

i s presented . Include d ar

e registrations , VMT , an

dmp g fo r eac h vehicl e class . Thi s discussio n o f input s i s followe d b y apresentatio n o

f the model' s outputs . Thes e output s include flee t fue l consumption an d vehicl e mile s traveled , roa d fue l economy , vehicl e registration s an dtota l emissions . Als o included i s asensitivit

y analysi s tha

t show s ho w gasoline consumption , vehicl e mile s traveledan d carbon dioxide emission s var y as on e change s certai n critica

l inpu t assumptions . Finally , th

e appendicie s displa

y the inpu t datain bot

h tabl e an dgraphica l for ma s well a s explain th

e prompt s proffere d b y th e mode l during it s execution . II . Input s A s note d i n the introduction , the principl e o f computin g fue

l consumptio n i s basically simple . Tota

l fue l consume d i s afunction o f the tota l numbe r o f vehicles , di e numbe

r o f mile s each vehicl e travel s an

d each vehicle' s fue

l economy . I

n mathematica

l notatio n i t i s represented b

y th e followin g equation : Fue l Consumption=[Numbe

r o f Vehicles ] • [VMT]/[Fue

l Economy ] However , thi s equatio n assume s tha t all vehicle s hav e the sam e age , VMT , an

d fue l economy . In reality , th e vehicle s operatin g i n an y given calenda

r yea r ar e amixtur e o f model years . Differen

t mode l year s have differen

t fue l econom y characteristic s an

dvehicle s o

f differen t age s hav e differen

t travel characteristics . Also , sinc e diesel fue l ha s ahighe

r heatin g valu e tha

n gasoline fuel , fue

l typ e i s afacto

r i n fue l consumption estimates . Thus , amor e accurat e equation i s Fue l Consumption(i,j,k)=[Numbe r o f Vehicles(ijjc) ] • [VMT(i,j4c)]/[Fue

l Economy(i,j,k) ] wher e i=age , j=fuel type , an

d k=vehicl e class . Thi s i s the for mo f the equatio n usedby th

e M4F C model . I n M4F C age (i ) range s fro

m1 to 3 0 years ; fue

l typ e (j ) represent s eithe

r gasoline , diesel o r on e o f severa l alternativ e fuel s an

dvehicle clas s (k

) represents on

e o f seve n vehicle classes . Further , sinc e M4F

C i s capabl e o

f computing fue

l consumptio n estimate s fro m198 2 t o 202 0 and , sinc e a

t leas t afe w vehicle s ar

e assumedt o remai n operationa l fo r up t o 3 0 years , mos t inpu t datamus t b e availabl e fro

m195 3 through 2020 . Operationall y thi s ha s ofte

n mean t tha t th e tim e serie s o f avariable remain s constan

t a t on e leve l fo r som e ver y earl y year s and , in most

cases , remain s constan

t a t adifferen t level fo r al l years beyon

dth e yea r 2000 . II.A . Vehicl

e Stoc k Th e firs t elemen t of th e fue l consumption equatio n i s referredto a s th e vehicl e stock , the tota l numbe r o f vehicle s operatin g i

n agive n calenda r year . Vehicl e stock

estimate s ar

e required fo r eac h vehicle clas s fo

r ever y projection year . Th e initia l ste p o f estimatin g vehicl e stock

i s to obtai n historica

l total stock

estimates . Historica l estimate s ar

e availabl e principally fro

mtw o sources , the R.L . Pol k Company 8 an

d th e Federa l Highwa y Administratio n (FHwA). 9P. 7

Although the truck

stoc k estimate s fro

mthes e tw o source s ar

e simila r fo r al l years , ca r registration s diffe

r markedly . Figure s 1-

2 show the vehicl e stock

estimate s fro

mthes e tw o sources .

e o 3 S

B O U at Figur e 1 Ca r Registration s

1 1 11111 1 111111 1 111111 1 11 1 195 5 196 0 196 5 197 0 197 5 i I i i 198 5 199 0 Yea r

e o

0 0 u Oi Figur e 2 Truc k Registration s

195 0 1111 1 11111111 1 11111 1 195 5 196 0 196 5 197 0 197 5 198 0 198 5

Yea rP. 8

According to Oa

k Ridg e Nationa

l Laboratorie s (ORNL), 1 0 ther e ar e severa l reason s fo

r thes e differences : 1 . Th e FHw A coun t include s all vehicle s tha

t have bee n registere dthroughou

t the calenda

r year . Therefore , their

numbe r include s vehicle s retire dduring th e yea r an d double counts vehicle s tha t have bee n registeredtwic e i

n eithe r differen t o r possibl y th e sam e states . Th

e Pol k coun t onl y include s vehicle s tha t ar e registere d o

n Jul y 1 , thu s factoring in scrappage , t o som e degree , an d avoidin g double counting . 2 . Beginning wit

h th e 1980 estimate , Pol

k count s van s a

s ligh t trucks , rathe

r tha n passenge

r cars . Th e FHw

A coun t include s van s as passenge

r car s o r trucks , depending on individua l stat e classifications . I t i s fo r thes e reason s tha

t the Pol k estimate s appea

r t o b e abette

r indicato r o f th e average automobile stoc

k durin g acalenda

r yea r tha n ar e th e FHw A estimates . While thes e sam

e reason s appl

y t o estimate s o

f trac k registrations , th

e tw o groups ' truc

k estimate s ar

e closer , sinc e atruck

i s les s likely t

o b e re-registere dwithi n agive n calenda r year . The M4F C mode l use s the Pol

k value s as the basi s fo

r it s histori c ca

r an dtruck vehicl e stocks . I

t als o use s Pol

k value s to project

th e futur e stoc k o f car s an dtrucks . Figur e 3 show s tha

t th e averag e numbe

r o f passenger

vehicle s per

perso n steadil y increase d between 195 0 an d 1979 . I n 198 0 Pol

k classifie d1,310,91 8 passenge r car s a s ligh

t trucks. 1 1 Figur e 3 Car s pe r Person

• i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i 195 0 196 0 197 0 198 0 199 0 200 0 201 0 202 0 Yea rP. 9

Classificatio n o

f ligh t vehicle s as car s or

truck s ha s alway s bee

n difficult . T o acertai n extent , som

e have alway s use

d ligh t track s i n th e sam e wa y tha t the y us e passenge

r cars ; i.e . a

s thei r principa l mean s o f persona l transponation . Thi s i s clearl y eviden t i n th e us e o f ligh t picku p truck s an d mini-van s today . Sinc e th e frequenc y o f thi s typ e o

f truc k us e ma y hav e begu

n t o increas e wit

h th e introductio n o

f emissio n standard s as early as 1969 , th e 1960-196 9 trend s i

n vehicle ownershi

p ar e use d i n th e projection methodolog

y describedbelow . To allo w fo r th e shif t fromligh t dut y vehicle s t

o ligh t dut y trucks while a

t th e sam e tim e maintaining th

e histori c increas e i

n th e numbe r o f passenger-typ e vehicle s pe r person , th e mode l use s th e produc t

o f expecte d population 1 2 an

dth e 1960-196 9 tren di

n passenge

r vehicle s pe

r perso n t o calculat e bot h th e historic an

dth e projecte dstoc k o f car s an dligh t truck s use da s cars : Histori c Spli

t (Pre-1990 ) - Pol

k registration s ar

e use ddirectl y t o estimat e th e tota l stoc k o f ligh t dut y vehicle s while the differenc e betwee n th e estimate dpassenge

r ca r stoc k based on th

e 1960-196 9 trendi

n th e numbe r o f passenge r vehicle s pe

r perso n an d Pol k ligh t dut y vehicl e registrations i s usedto estimat e the numbe

r o f ligh t dut y trucks tha

t ar e use das ligh t dut y vehicles . Futur e Split (1990+ ) - The 1960-196 9 trendi n th e numbe r o f passenge r vehicle s pe r perso n i s als o use

d t o estimat e the futur e stoc k o f ligh t dut y vehicle s an

dligh t dut y truck s tha

t ar e used as ligh

t dut y vehicles. 4 1 The mode

l split s th e projected tota l o f passenger-typ e vehicle s int o it s componen

t part s (LDV s an

dLDTl s tha

t operat e lik e LDVs ) b y assumin g tha t th e sale s fractio

n o f persona l vehicle s tha

t ar e trucks remain s constan

t a t 199 0 level s fo r al l years afte r 1990 . Th e sale s fractio

n o f persona l vehicle s tha

t ar e trucks i s calculatedi

n th e followin g manner . First , th e 29. 6 percen t of the ligh t dut y flee t tha t ar e ligh t dut y truck s i n 1990 1 3 i s adjuste

d downwar

dt o 27. 0 percen

t t o accoun t fo r th e increas e i

n freigh t carrie d b y truck s betwee

n 1969 an d1990. 1 1 Second , the differenc e betwee n tha t valu e an d th e imputed 196

9 fraction o

f th e ligh t dut y flee t tha t ar e ligh t truck s i s calculated . See Figure s 4-5 . The tota l stoc k o f commercia

l trucks* * i s projectedi

n asimila r fashion .

* * Ligh t dut y truck s tha

t ar e use d a s ligh t dut y vehicle s ar

e assume dt o travel an dbe scrapped a

t th e sam e rat e as ligh t dut y vehicles . The

y ar e als o assume

dt o reflec t th e diesel penetration rat e o f cars . Commercia

l trucks ar e define dfo r th e purpose s o

f thi s repor t as Clas s 1-8

B trucks les s thos e Clas s 1 an d 2 trucks used as passenge r vehicles .P.1 0

e o a. u • s S Figur e 4 LD T Marke

tFractio n

o.i -

-,—,— • i -i—i—|—i—i—r—i—i—r - '—i—|— r - r 196 9 197 2 1975 197 8 198 1 198 4 198 7 199 0 Yea r

J 3 Figur e 5

Percen to f

Total Freigh tb y Trac k

• i i i t i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i I96 0 196 5 197 0 1975 198 0 198 5 199 0 Yea rP.1 1

In th e cas e o

f commercia

l trucks , accoun

t i s als o take

n o f the increas e i

n the proportio n o

f freigh t tha t i s carrie d b

y tracks . Figur

e 5 show s that , sinc e 1960 , track s have increasedtheir shar e o f freight from21.7 % t

o 25.2% . Th

e 1960-196 9 trendi

n commercia

l trac k stoc k show n i n Figur e 6 i s expected t

o continue a

s the nationa

l econom y continue s t

o becom e mor e o f aservic e econom

y an d as all industrie s tr

y t o reduc e their

inventor y cost s through just-in-time orderin g techniques . Figur e 7 show s the numbe

r o f commercia

l trucks pe r person estimatedb

y thi s methodology .

c o a " 3 a. o a. o S Figur e 6 Commercia

l Trucks/(U S Population * Freigh t Index ) 0.1 4

0.0 4 • ' •

Ligh tTruck s Use d a s Passenge r Vehicles
i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i 196 0 196 5 197 0 197 5 198 0 198 5 199 0 Yea r Trucks/(Population*Index

) = - 4.271 4 + Year*2.2003e-3 R A 2 = 0.90 0



# I Figur e 7 Estimated Commercia

l Track s pe

r Perso n

0 . 0 I ' i • i i • • • • l ' • > > i • < • • i i i i i i i i i i | • i i i | 195 0 195 5 196 0 196 5 197 0 197 5 198 0 198 5 199 0 Yea rP.1 2

Th e tota l stock o f commercia

l truck s i s distribute dto th e variou s weigh

t classe s b y projecte d sale s accordin

g t o th e followin g recursive procedure : 1 . Obtain th

e 1982 * Truc

k Information an

dUse Surve

y (TTUS) class-specifi c trac k stocks. 14

- 1 5 2 . Scra p aconstan

t 5. 7 percent* * o

f vehicle s i n eac h weigh t class . 3 . Ad d 198 3 Clas s 1 sale s fro

mMVM A Fact s an

dFigures 1 1 t

o obtai n a preliminar y Clas s 1 stoc

k estimat e fo r 1983 . 4 . Subtrac t

198 3 MVM

A Clas s 1 sale s fro

m198 3 LDT (Clas s 1+2A ) sale s fro mEPA' s Fue

l Econom y Trend s report 1 3 t

o obtain 198 3 Clas s 2

A sale s estimates . Ad

d thes e t o th e 2 A stoc k estimat e t o obtai n th e preliminar

y 198 3 stoc k estimate . 5 . Subtract

th e Trend s report

LD T 198 3 sale s fro

mth e MVM A Clas s 1+

2 sale s t o obtai n Clas s 2

B sales . Ad

dthes e t o the 2 B stoc k estimat e t o obtai n the preliminar y 198 3 stoc

k estimate . 6 . Ad d Classe s 3-8

B sale s fro mth e Heavy-Dut

y Vehicle Emission Conversion Factor s II report 1 7 t

o obtain th e preliminar

y 198 3 stoc

k estimate s fo

r thes e classes . 7 . Afte r th e scrapped vehicle s ar

e removedfro

mthe flee t an dsale s ar e added , the numbe r o f ligh t dut y truck s tha

t ar e usedas passenge

r car s i s subtracted fro mClas s 1 truck s an

dthe resultin g tota

l numbe r o f commercia

l truck s i s compare d t

o the projecte dPol

k figures . Thes e ar

e then renormalize dby weigh t clas s t o reflect not onl y the Pol k figures bu

t als o follow the vehicl e stoc k trend s assumedfo

r MOBILE4 . 8 . Thi s proces s i s repeate dfo r eac h subsequen

t yea r basedo n the following sale s assumptions :
0 Clas s 1 , 2

A an d2 B sale s estimate s ar

e calculate dfro

m MVM A Fact s an

dFigures 1 1 andEPA' s Fuel Econom y Trends 1 3 throug h 1989 . Th e 1982-198 9 averag e class
specifi c sale s ar

e grown a t atw o percent

per yea r rat e thereafter in keepin g wit

h th e assumptio n regardin g Classe s 5- 6 sale s use din EPA' s Conversio n Facto r report. 1 7

* Thes e ar

e th e mos t

recen t availabl e data . A

n update dsurve

y i s i n th e proces s o

f being completed by the U.S . Departmen t o f Commerce . * * Thi s scrappag e rat

e i s a n averag e o

f the 195 0 t

o 198 9 calenda

r yea r estimate s publishe d i

n Ward' s Automotiv e Yearbook 1 6 (Actua l sale s an dscrappag e rate s ar

e usedfo r 1983-1989 . Th e constan t 5. 7 percen

t scrappag e rat

e i s usedfo

r calenda r year s 1990 an

dlater. )P.1 3

Classe s 3-8B sale s estimate s fro mthe Conversion Factor report 1 7 ar e usedfo r the 1982-2000 period . Thereafter , a tw o percen t pe r yea r growt h rat e i s als o assume

dfo r thes e classes . Historica l (1950-1988 ) stock s o

f bot h publi c andschoo l buse s wer e derive dfro

mFHw A Highwa y Statistics 9 Tabl e MV-10 . Futur e stock s wer

e estimate db

y applying th

e tren d i n th e numbe r o f buse s pe r capitat o th e expecte dpopulation. 1 2 See Figur e 8 .

0.00 3

0.002 - u 6 i

. c u > 0.001 - Figur e 8 Buse s pe r Person

» i • • • • i • • •« i • • • • i • • _*_i_ L
School/Perso n = - 7.1447e- 2 + Year*3.7011e- 5 R* 2 = 0.98 3

WW-.. . l '<„.„„ l „....M l .|lllllllllll|llllllllll||| a ||IIMI I Public/Perso n = 4.6511e- 3 - Year*2.1203e- 6 R A 2 = 0.00 8 0.00 0 | i i i i | i i 195 0 195 5 I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i » < I Mimimiim i Publi c

— ^ Schoo

l

196 0 196 5 197 0

Yea r 197 5 198 0 198 5 199 0

II.B . Registration Distribution s I n an y calenda r year , th e total vehicl e stock consist s of

vehicle s of

differen t vintages . Sinc e eac h vintag e ha s it s own uniqu e blen do f fue l econom y an dVMT , i t i s necessar

y to know how man y vehicle s ther

e ar e of eac h age . The MOBILE

4 registratio n distribution s for mthe basi s upon which thes e estimate s ar e mad e fo r M4FC . (Fo

r a n explanatio n o

f thes e distributions , see "MOBILE 4 Travel Characteristics". 18 )
However , befor

e the MOBILE

4 distribution s ca

n b e use di n th e fue l consumption model , certai n modification s ar

e needed . Th e MOBILE

4 registratio n estimate s ar

e assumedt

o b e a s o f Jul y 1 o f eac h year , befor

e the first mode l year' s sale s ar

e complete . I

n addition , al

l vehicle s olde

r tha n 1 9 year s o

f age ar e added togethe

r an dplace di n th e 20 + ag e group . T o adjus t fo r thes e differences , th e origina

l MOBILE

4 registratio n equations , coverin g age s 2 to 1 9 years , wer e extrapolate d forwar

d t o aful l firs t yea r andextende dbackwar

dto 3 0 year s o

f age . The resultin g serie s was the

n renormalized s o tha

t th e tota l add s u p to 10 0 percent .P.1 4

Sinc e ther e ar e eigh t vehicl e class-fue

l typ e combination s i

n MOBILE

4 an dman y mor e tha n tha t i n th e M4F C model , th

e mappin g schem e show n i n Table 1 i s used : Tabl e 1 Registration Distribution s M4F C Vehicl e Clas s LD V LDT 1 LDT 2 Clas s 2 B Clas s 3 Clas s 4 Clas s 5 Clas s 6 Clas s 7 Clas s 8 A Clas s 8B School Buse s Publi c Buse s Off-Highwa

y MOBILE

4 Registration Distribution Use

d Gas LD V LD T LD T HDG V HDG V HDG V HDG V HDG V HDG V HDG V HDG V

-

-

- Diese

l LD V LD T LD T HDD V HDD V HDD V HDD V HDD V HDD V HDD V HDD V

-

-

- T o actually obtai n th e numbe r o f vehicle s o

f acertai n age , th e calenda

r yea r dependen t vehicle stoc

k i s multiplied b

y th e fractio n o f vehicle s a t tha t age : Numbe r o f Vehicle s (age)=[Vehicl

e Stock ] • [Registratio

n Distribution(age) ] wher e ag e range s fro

m1 t o 30 . Wit h th e exceptio n o

f buse s an doff-highwa

y vehicles, * thi s methodolog y i s used fo r eac h yea r an d vehicl e clas s analyze dby th e model . Th e registratio n dat afo r buse s an d off
highwa y vehicle s ar

e calenda r yea r dependen t rathe r tha n ag e dependen

t an ds o d o not requir e registration distribution s in thei r calculations . II.C . Vehicl

e Mile s Travele

d Tota l vehicl e mile s travele d pe

r yea r i s simpl y the product

o f the averag e numbe

r o f mile s eac h vehicle travel s an

d th e tota l numbe r o f vehicle s i n th e fleet. Th e numbe r o f mile s traveled pe

r vehicl e i s dependen

t o n ag e as wel l as class . M4F C use s th e VM

T ag e curve s foun

d i n the MOBILE 4 mode l an

d show n i n Tabl e 2 below . (For furthe r detai l o n thes e curves , se e "MOBILE 4 Trave l Characteristics". 18 ) Th e mapping schem e i s nearly the sam

e a s tha t use d fo r registratio n distributions .

1 0P.1 5

Tabl e 2 Mileage Accumulatio

n Distribution s M4F C Vehicl e Clas s LD V LDT 1 LDT 2 Clas s 2 B Clas s 3 Clas s 4 Clas s 5 Clas s 6 Clas s 7 Clas s 8 A Clas s 8 B MOBILE

4 Mileag e Accumulatio

n Distribution Use

d Qa s LDG V LDGT 1 LDGT 2 HDG V HDG V HDG V HDG V HDG V HDG V HDG V HDG V Diese

l LDD V LDD T LDD T LDGT 2 LHDD V LHDD V LHDD V MHDD V MHDD V MHDD V HHDD V Thi s schem

e i s fairl y straightforwar

dexcept fo r Clas s 2B . Th

e LDGT2 distributio n was assigne d t o Clas s 2 B becaus e thi s clas s behave s mor e lik e the LDGT

2 clas s tha n lik e an y o f th e othe r heav y dut y classes . Fo r all distribution s i

t i s assumedtha

t vehicle s ove

r 2 0 year s o

f age trave l annuall

y th e sam e distanc e as age 20 vehicles . II.D . Diese

l Marke t Penetratio n Eac h mode l yea r acertai n numbe

r o f ga s an ddiese l vehicle s ar

e produced . The fractio

n o f diese l vehicle s compared t

o the tota l numbe r o f vehicle s producedfo

r agive n clas s i s referre

d t o as the diese l marke

t penetratio n rate . In M4FC , thes e rate s ar e usedt o estimat e the numbe

r o f gas and diese l vehicle s operatin g in eac h model year . Thi s i s accomplishe db y usin g th e following formulas : Numbe

r o f Diese l Vehicles(year)=[Numbe

r o f Vehicles(year) ] [Diese l Penetration(year) ] Numbe r o f Gas Vehicles(year)=[Numbe r o f Vehicles(year) ] • [1-Diese l Penetration(year) ] The diesel penetratio n rate s usedin M4F C ar e th e sam e as thos e in MOBILE4. 1
Th e treatmen t o f thes e vehicle categorie s i s slighd y differen t tha n th e others . Onl

y tota l VM T an d flee t mp g ar e availabl e fo

r buses . Therefore , individua l mode l yea r distribution s ar

e not included in th e model .
1 1P.1 6

A t present , th e futur

e dieselizatio n o

f the LD V an dLD T fleets i s uncertain . To allow fo r thi s uncertainty , the model ha s aprovisio n t o plac e amaximu

mlimi t o n the LD V an dLDT diese

l penetratio n rate s afte

r 1988 . Thi s rat

e ca n b e se t in the rang e o

f 0 t o 5 percen t fo r LDV s an d fro m 0 t o 1 5 percen

t fo r LDTs. * Operationally , thi s mean s tha t th e diesel penetratio n rat

e assumed b

y th e MOBILE

4 emission s mode

l i s replace db

y th e limit imposedb

y thi s optio n beginning i

n th e yea r specified . II.E . Fue

l Econom y Fue l econom

y estimate s ar

e derive dfro

mavariet

y of sources . A

n interna l EP A memorandu

m"Fue l Consumption Mode

l Inputs" 1 9 provide s ne

w vehicl e flee

t roa dmpg fo r LDV s an d LDT s fo

r th e 1962-197 4 period.* * EPA' s Fuel Econom y Trend s report 1 3 provide s ne w vehicl e tes t

mp g fo r LDV s and LDT s fo

r th e 1975-199 0 period . Absen t an y change s i

n th e Corporat e Averag e Fuel Econom

y (CAFE) standards , tes t

fue l econom y i s assume dt

o remain constan t a t 199 0 level s fo r al l projection years . Sinc e thes e estimate s ar

e no t fue l typ e specific , adiese l advantag e facto r i s include d t

o indicat e th e degree t o whic h diesel fuele

dvehicle s obtain afue

l econom y greate r tha n thei r gasolin e counterparts . Thes e tw o estimates , along wit h th e mode l yea r specifi c diesel penetratio n rate s fo r eac h model year , ar

e combine d to estimat

e separat e gasolin e anddiese l fue

l economies . Se

e Appendi x A . The tw o equation s use dare :

Gas mpg=[Flee

t mpg]«([l -Diese

l Penetration ] +[Diese l Penetration]/[Diese

l Advantage Factor] ) Diese l mpg=[Gas mpg]»[Diese

l Advantage Factor

] Tes t fue l econom y i s discounte dto roadfue l econom y by applyin g aconstant 0.9 0 multiplicativ e facto

r to cit y driving an

daconstan

t 0.7 8 facto r t o highwa y driving. 20 ** * Thes e ar

e weighte d togethe

r usin g th e calendar-year-specifi c proportio n o f urba n driving liste di

n Highwa y Statistics 9 t

o arriv e a t aroa d fue l economy . Se

e Figur e 9 . Actua

l value s wer

e usedfo r th e perio d 1968-1988 . Beyond 1988 , the 1968-198 8 tren dwa s linearly extrapolated . Thi s gradua l increas e i n the proportion o

f all drivin g tha

t i s urba n i s referred t

o i n thi s repor

t as "urbanization" .

* Th e 198 8 diesel penetratio n rat e fo r LDV s an dLDT s was 0.0 % an

d0.2% , respectively . * * MP G value s prior

to 196 2 ar e assumedt

o be th e sam e as thos e i

n 1962 . ** * N o adjustmen

t wa s mad e in thi s analysi s fo

r th e CAF E allowanc e associatedwit

h change s i

n EPA' s tes t

procedure . Historically , thi s ha s amounte dto betwee n 0.001 0 and 0.0050. 21 ' 22

- 23

- 24

- 2 5

1 2P.1 7

7 0 Figur e 9 Urba n VM T Percentage

• • • • • •••• •

4 0 - 30 - 2 0 - 10 -

0 | i i i i | i i i i | i i i i | i 196 5 197 0 197 5 198 0 Yea r • i I i i i i

198 5 199 0
EPA' s Conversio n Facto

r report 17 provide dseparat

e ga s an ddiesel roa

dmp g value s fo

r 196 2 t o 2000 mode

l year s fo r clas s 2B-8B tracks . A s wit h th e ligh t dut y classes , mp g value s prior t o 196 2 wer e assigned the 1962 values . II.F . Tota

l Emission s Tota l highwa y vehicl e hydrocarbon , carbo n monoxid e an doxide s o f nitrogen emission s ar e estimate d as simpl

y aproduct

o f flee t VM T an dMOBILE4 1 emission factors . Carbon dioxid e emission s ar

e calculate d b

y using acarbon balanc e method. 2 6 Th e carbo n balanc e metho drelie s on the assumption tha t mass , i n th e for mo f carbon , i s conserve d i

n the combustio n process . Therefore , give n the amoun

t o f carbon in the fuel , on

e ca n determin e the amoun

t o f C0 2 releasedint

o the ai r a s di e differenc e between th e tota l amoun t o f carbo n i n th e fue l an d the amount s o

f hydrocarbo n an

dcarbon monoxid

e release di

n the exhaus t an d through evaporation . Thre e set s o

f MOBILE 4 emission s mode

l inpu t assumption s wer

e usedto calculat

e tota l emissions : Projection

Yea r 1975-198 8 1989-199 1 1992 + I/ M Progra m N o I/ M Standar dI/ M Standar dI/ M Gasolin

e RV P 11. 5 ps i 10. 5 ps i 9. 0 ps i

1 3P.1 8

Al l othe r MOBILE 4 inputs wer

e lef t a t thei r defaul t settings , includin

g temperatur

e (75°F) , speed (19. 6 mph

) an d vehicle operating condition (20.6 % VM T i n coldstar t mode , 27.3 % VM

T i n hot star t mod e and 52.1 % VMT in stabilize doperatin g mode) . Thus , th e HC , C O an d NO x inventorie s show

n will no t reflec t the ful l rang e o f inpu t condition s usedt

o mode l highwa y mobil e sourc e emission s b

y mor e refined methods. 27

- 28 ' 29

- 3 0 Nevertheless , their

inclusio n i

n thi s repor

t allow s the model t

o projec t C0 2 emission s throug h th e followin g two carbon balanc e equations : Gasoline : CQ 2 = 242 1 - mp g «(0.86 6 H C + 0.429 CO ) 0.27 3 mp g Diesel : C0 2 = 277 8 - mp e »(0.86 6 H C + 0.42 9 CO ) 0.27 3 mp g Th e C0 2 emission s inventor y i s considerably les s sensitiv e tha n th e HC , C O or

NO x inventorie s t

o variation s i

n MOBILE

4 inpu t assumptions . III . Outputs Th e M4F C model output s fue

l consumptio n estimate s fo

r seve n differen t vehicl e classe s an d seve n differen t fue l types . Thes e classe s an

dthei r composition ar

e summarize

di n Table s 3-4 . Tabl e 3 Vehicl e Classe s Designatio n LD V LD T Classe s 2B- 5 Classe s 6-8A Clas s 8 B Schoo l Buse s Publi c Buse s Off-Highway * Description

Ligh t Dut y Vehicle s (passenge

r cars ) Ligh t Dut y Track s , 0-8500 lb s GV

W Ligh t Heav y Dut y Tracks , 8501-19500 lb s GV W Heav y Heav y Dut y Tracks , 19501-50000 lb s GV W Heav y Heav y Dut y Trucks , 50000+lb s GV

W Agricultural , industrial/commercial , construction an d marine/recreation vehicle s

Onl y gasoline fue

l consumed b

y off-highwa

y moto r vehicles , suc

h as far man dconstructio n equipment , i s estimated . Estimating diesel fue l consumedb y off-highwa

y moto r vehicle s i s beyond the scop e o

f thi s report.

1 4P.1 9

Designatio n Gasolin e Diese l E8 5 E10 0 M8 5 M10 0 CNG Tabl e 4 Fue l Type s Description Gasoline+Gasohol (E10 ) 100 % Diese l 85 % Ethanol 15 % Gasolin e 100 % Ethanol 85 % Methanol 15 % Gasoline 100 % Methano

l 100% CompressedNatura

l Gas Table s 5- 9 ar

e copie s o f the 199 0 model output . Severa l table s ar e provide dfo

r eac h projectio n year :
° Flee

t Fue l Consumptio

n 0 Flee t Vehicl e Mile s Travele

d ° Roa d MP G 0 Vehicl e Registration s 0 Tota l Emission s III.A . Flee

t Fue l Consumptio

n The to p one-half

o f th e tabl e list s the diese l an dgasolin e fue

l consumedb

y ligh t dut y vehicles , light

dut y track s and b y thre e set s o f heavy dut

y truc k classes . Als o liste d i s consumptio n b

y schoo l an

d commercia

l buses . Finally , off-highwa y gasolin e consumptio n i s included . Below th e conventiona

l fue l consumptio

n estimate s ar

e the fue l consumption estimate s fo

r alternativel y fue

l vehicles . Thes e ar

e vehicle s designe dto ran on ethano l (E8 5 an d El00) , methanol (M8 5 an

d M100) an

d compressednatura

l gas (CNG). * III.B . Flee

t Vehicl e Mile s Travele

d Th e flee t vehicl e mile s travele destimat e i s formattedi

n asimila r fashion . Diesel an

d gasolin e VM

T i s liste d i

n th e to p half

o f the tabl e whil e VM

T estimate s fo

r alternatively fuele

d vehicle s ar e liste d i n th e botto mhalf . III.C . Roa

d MP G The mp g table list s roa

d mpg bot h fo r ne w vehicle s an

dfo r th e flee t as awhole .
Sinc e m e input s fo r the alternativ e fuel s section s o f the mode l ar e undergoin g interna

l EP A review fo r th e Alternativ e Moto

r Fuel s report , the scenario s includedi n thi s report assum e all vehicle s ar e powered b

y conventiona

l fuels . 1 5Table S MOBILE 4 Fue

l Consumptio n Mode l 199 0 FleetFue l Consumption ( x 10 9 Gallons/Year , x 10 6 Barrels/Day ) Diese l Gasolin e Vehicl e Clas s LD V LD T Classe s 2B- 5 Classe s 6-8 A Clas s 8 B Schoo l Buse s Public Buse s Off-Highwa y Total LDV-tLD T Total HD V Tota l Highwa y Gran d Tota l Gallon s 0.71 3 0.56 8 1.177 4.98 9 15.38 3 0.26 4 0.68 2 0.00 0 1.28 1 22.49 4 23.77 4 23.77 4 0.04 6 0.03 7 0.07 7 0.32 5 1.00 3 0.01 7 0.04 4 0.00 0 0.08 4 1.46 7 1.55 1 1.55 1 Alternativ e Fuel s 57.21 7

29.13 3 5.71 7 1.50 1 0.02 5 0.06 1 0.00 0 3.01 9 86.35 0 7.30 4 93.65 4 96.67 3 BPlVPa v 3.73 2 1.90 0 0.37 3 0.09 8 0.00 2 0.00 4 0.00 0 0.19 7 5.63 3 0.47 6 6.10 9 6.30 6

Alcohol s Gase s Ethano l Methano l Tota l CN G Tota l Grand Tota l LD V LD T Classcs2B- S Classe s 6-8 A CUss8 B Schoo l Buse s Publi c Buse s Off-Highwa y Tota l LDV+LD T Tota l HD V Tota l Highwa y Gran d Tota l E8 5

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 E10 0

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 Tota l

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 M8 5

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 Mio o

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 Tota l

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 Gallon s

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 BBL/Da v

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 CC F

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 Gallon s

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 CC F

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 Gallon s

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 Gallon s

57.93 0 29.70 1 6.89 4 6.48 9 15.40 7 0.32 5 0.68 2 3.01 9 87.63 1 29.79 7 117.42 8 120.44 8 BBL/Da y

3.77 9 1.93 7 0.45 0 0.42 3 1.00 5 0.02 1 0.04 4 0.19 7 5.71 6 1.94 4 7.66 0 7.85 7 Note : Thi s ru

n assume s th e followin g fue l econom y adjustments : Standar d Shortfall . Urbanization , N o CAF E Growth . Defaul tM4F C

h oTabl e 6 MOBILE

4 Fue l Consumptio n Mode l 199 0 FleetVehicl e Mile s Travele d (xl0 9 MiksA r car ) Tota l VM T _Dj£se J Gasolin e

LD V LD T Classe s 2B- 5 Classes6-8 A Clas s 8 B Schoo l Buse s Publi c Buse s Tota l LDV+LD T Tota l HD V Gran d Tota l
Defaul i M4F C E8 5

0.0 0 OJO O 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 Ethano l

E10 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 Al e

Tota l 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 LD V

LD T Classe s 2B- 5 Classe s 6-8 A Clas s 8 B Schoo l Buse s Publi c Buse s Tota l LDV+LD T Tota l HD V Gran d Tota l

ohol s Methano l M8 5 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 MI0 0

0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 18.6 8

14.2 2 17.2 5 34.4 6 83.8 1 3.1 1 3.7 2 32.9 0 142.3 5 175.2 5
Tota l VM T Alternativ e Fuel s

Tota l OJOO 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 Tota l

0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 CN G

0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 1173.3 1

481.2 4 58.9 3 8.7 1 0.0 9 0.5 0 0.0 0 1654.5 5 68.2 3 1722.7 7

3ase s Tv|a | 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 Tota l

0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 O.(K ) 0.0 0 Tota l

1191.9 9 495.4 5 76.1 8 43.1 7 83.9 0 3.6 1 3.7 2 1687.4 4 210.5 8 1898.0 2

• 0 h oLD V LD T Classe s 2 B 5 Classe s 6-8 A CUs s 8 B Schoo l Buse s Publi c Buse s Total LDV+LD T Tota l HD V Gran d Tota l

LD V LD T Classe s 2B- 5 Classe s 6-8 A Clas s 8 B Schoo l Buse s Publi c Buse s Tola ! LDV+LD T Tota l HD V Gran d Tota l JHese l

27.6 3 24.9 5 14.5 5 7.0 1 5.4 9 11.7 9 5.4 5 26.1 3 6.5 2 7.2 4

Diese l 26.2 1 25.0 2 14.66 6.9 1 5.4 5 11.7 9 5.4 5 25.6 8 6J 3 7.3 7 Table 7

MOBHJE 4 Fue l

Ga s 23.0 3 17.2 6 10.6 2 5.9 3 0.0 0 8.2 0 0.0 0 20.8 9 9.6 5 19.6 7

J2a s 20.5 1 16.5 2 10.3 1 5.8 0 3.4 6 8.2 0 0.0 0 19.1 6 9.3 4 18.4 0 Consumption Model IV-n ) Roa d MPG Ne w Vehicl e
E8 5 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 Sthano l

Flee t Ethano l E8 5 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 .ELO

O 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

ElO O 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 Methano l

_M8 5 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 MlO O

0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

Methano l M8 5 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 MIQO

0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 CN G

MPCC F 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.(K ) 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

CN G MPCC F 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 Note : Thi s ru

n assume s the followin g fue l econom y adjustments : Standar d Shortfall , Urbanization , N o CAF E Growth . Defaul tM4F CTabl e 8

MOBILE 4 Fuel Consumptio n Mode l

LD V LD T Classe s 2B- 5 Classe s 6-8 A Clas s 8 B Schoo l Buse s Publi c Buse s Tota l LDV+LD T Tota l HD V Gran d Tota l Diese l

1.96 8 1.24 7 1.15 6 1.39 6 1.38 6 0.45 4 0.11 8 3.21 5 4.51 0 7.72 5 Ga s

122.69 0 43.38 4 5.10 2 0.79 7 0.02 1 0X)73 0.00 0 166.07 4 5.99 2 172.06 6 Vehicl e Registration s (xlO 6 Vehicles ) Ethano l E8 5 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 ElO O

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 Methano l

M8 5 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 MlO O

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 CNG

0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 Tota l

124.65 8 44.63 1 6.25 8 2.19 3 1.40 7 0.52 7 0.11 8 169.28 9 10.50 3 179.79 1Tabl e 9

Mobile 4 Fue l Consumption Mode l

LDV LD T Classe s 2B- 5 Classe s 6-8 A Clas s 8 B Schoo l Buse s Publi c Buse s Tota l LDV+LD T Total HD V Grand Tota l H C 3.05 8 1.57 5 0.24 3 0.14 8 0.21 8 0.01 1 0.01 0 4.63 4 0.63 0 5.26 3 Total Emission s (xlO 6 Metri

c Tons/Year

) C O 19.20 8 10.91 2 1.60 2 0.95 5 1.01 4 0.06 9 0.04 5 30.12 0 3.68 5 33.80 4 NO x

1.88 9 0.94 0 0.16 5 0.68 3 1.54 1 0.06 0 0.06 8 2.82 9 2.51 7 5.34 6 C0 2

474.77 7 241.99 0 5938 3 62.10 4 154.46 5 3.08 2 6.84 1 716.76 6 285.87 4 1002.63 8 Defaul tM4F C MOBILE 4 RUN : 1975-1988 : n o 1M 11. 5 RVP/1989-1991 : st d I M 10 3 RVP/1992-2020 : std IM 9. 0 RV PP.2 5

III.D . Vehicl

e Registration s an

d Tota l Emission s Th e top half o f las t tabl e list s tota

l registration s b

y vehicl e an

dfue l type . Tota

l HC , CO , NO x an d C0 2 emission s ar

e liste d i n th e secon dhal f o f th e table . IV . Sensitivit

y Figure s 10-1 2 show th

e sensitivit

y gasoline consumption , VM T an dC0 2 emission s t

o tw o o f the mos t significant

MOBILE

4 input assumptions : diese l penetratio n an dVM T pe r vehicle. 3 1 The "Limited Diesel " cas e show s the difference i n gasoline consumption tha t would resul

t b y assuming tha

t the fractions o

f ne w model yea

r ligh t dut y vehicle s an

dtruck s tha

t ar e diesel powered remain constan

t a t 198 8 level s (0.0% , 0.2%). 1 3 Th e "VM T Growth " cas e show s th e differenc e i n consumptio n tha

t wouldresult

b y assuming tha

t VM T pe r vehicl e increase s a

t 1.0 % pe r yea r fo r ligh t dut y vehicle s an

dligh t dut y trucks tha t operat e as passenge

r vehicles . Finally , "Diese

l & Growth " cas e show s the effec t o f combining the tw o assumptions , o f constan t diesel penetratio n rate s an

dincreasing VM

T pe r passenger-typ e vehicle . A s ca n b e seen fro

mth e figures , gasolin e consumptio n increase s as diese l penetratio n decline s an

d as VM T pe r vehicl e increases . Bot

h VM T an dC0 2 increas e a

s VM T pe r vehicl e increases .

o 5 H c o = 3 o
C D e o 'S . o U Figur e 1 0 Gasoline Consumption

202 0

2 1P.26

Figur e 1 1 Tota l VM T

a o a 5 500 0

400 0 - 3000 - 200 0 1000
-
199 0 199 5 200 0 T T 200 5 201 0 Yea r 201 5 202 0

Figur e 1 2 Carbo n Dioxid e Emission s 300 0 u

e E 2 •f i u c o 2000 -

100 0

200 0 T 1 r 200 5 201 0 201 5 Yea r 202 0



### 2 2P.2 7

Reference sP.2 8

Reference s
1 U.S . Environmenta l Protectio n Agency , Office o f Mobile Sources , User' s Guid e t o MOBILE4 . EPA-AA-TEB-89-01 , February , 1989 . 2 Energy an

d Environmenta

l Analysis , Inc. , The Motor Fuel Consumptio n Model , Fourteent h Periodica l Report , prepare dfo r th e U.S . Department

o f Energy , December , 1988 . 3 U.S . Environmenta l Protectio n Agency , Offic e o f Polic y Analysis , Cost s an d Benefit s o f Reducing Lea

di n Gasoline . EPA-230-03-84-005 , Ma y 1984 . 4 U.S . Departmen

t o f Energy , Energy Informatio n Administration , Annua l Energ y Outloo k 1990 . "Transportation Spreadshee t Model " (Transportation Energ y Demand , February , 1990) . 5 U.S . Departmen

t o f Energy , Oakridg e Nationa

l Laboratory , Alternativ e Moto r Fue l Us e Model . Mode

l Theor y an dDesign an

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f th e Transportatio n Sector . Spring , 1989 . 7 U.S . Environmenta l Protectio n Agency , Offic e o f Air Quality , Plannin g and Standards , User' s Manua

l fo r Modifie dRollback/EKM A Strateg y Assessment Model . EPA-450/4-81-025 , July , 1981 . 8 R.L . Pol

k an d Company , Detroit , MI . 9 U.S . Departmen

t of Transportation , Federa

l Highwa y Administration , Highway Statistics . 198 5 -1988 . Tabl e VM-1 . 1 ° U.S . Departmen

t o f Energy , Oa

k Ridg e Nationa

l Laboratory , Transportatio n Energ y Dat aBook : Editio n 9 . ORNL-6325 , April , 1987 . n Moto

r Vehicle Manufacturers Association o f th e UnitedStates , Inc. , Faa s & Figure s 12ft , 1990 . 1 2 U.S . Departmen

t o f Commerce , Burea

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e 2 . Metropolita

n Statistica

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R- lP.2 9

Reference s (continued

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1 4 U.S . Departmen

t o f Commerce , Burea

u o f the Census , Trac k

Inventor y an dUs e Survey . 1982 . 1 5 Energ

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f th e 1982 Truc

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e o f Mobile Sources , MOBLLE

4 Travel Characteristics . July , 1990 . 1 9 U.S . Environmenta l Protectio n Agency , Offic e of Mobil e Sources , "Fue l Consumptio n Model Inputs" , Not e fro mKar l Hellma n t o Ralph Stahman , Octobe

r 17 , 1984 . 2 0 U.S . Environmenta l Protectio n Agency , Offic

e o f Mobil e Sources , "O

n th e Stabilit y o f the EP A MP G Adjustmen

t Factors" , SA

E 851216 , 1986 . 2 1 U.S . Environmenta l Protectio n Agency , Office o f Mobil e Sources , "198 6 Model Yea r Passenge r Automobile CAF

E Adjustmen

t Coefficient" , Ma

y 21,1986 . 2 2 U.S . Environmental Protectio n Agency , Offic e o f Mobil e Sources , "CAF

E Adjustmen

t Coefficien

t fo r 198 7 Model Yea

r Passenge r Automobiles" , Apri l 7 , 1987 . 2 3 U.S . Environmental Protectio n Agency , Offic e o f Mobil e Sources , "CAF

E Adjustmen t Coefficien

t fo r 198 8 Mode

l Yea r Passenge r Automobiles" , Februar

y 8 , 1988 . 2 4 U.S . Environmental Protectio n Agency , Offic e o f Mobil e Sources , "CAF

E Adjustmen t Coefficien

t fo r 198 9 Model Yea

r Passenge r Automobiles" , March 15 , 1989 . 2 5 U.S . Environmental Protectio n Agency , Offic e o f Mobil e Sources , "CAF

E Adjustmen

t Coefficien

t fo r 1990 Model Yea

r Passenge r Automobiles" , Ma

y 15 , 1990 . 2 6 Titl e 4 0 Cod

e o f Federa l Regulation s Par

t 600.113-88 . R- 2P.3 0

Reference s (continued

)
2 7 U.S . Environmental Protectio n Agency , Offic e o f Air Qualit y Plannin g and Standards , Nationa

l Ai r Pollutan t Emissio n Estimate s 1940-1988 . March , 1990 . 2 8 U.S . Environmental Protectio n Agency , Offic e o f Air Qualit y Plannin g and Standards , Nationa

l Ai r Qualit y an dEmission Trend s Repor

t 1988 . March , 1990 . 2 9 U.S . Environmenta l Protectio n Agency , Office o f Mobil e Sources , Volatilit y Regulation s fo

r Gasolin e an

dAlcoho l Blend s Sol di

n Calenda r Year s 199 2 an

d Beyond . Ai

r Qualit y Analysis . 1990 . 3 0

3 1 U.S . Environmental Protectio n Agency , Offic e o f Mobil e Sources , Interi m Regulation s For

Col d Temperature Carbo n Monoxid e Emission s Air Qualit y Analysis . 1990 . U.S . Environmenta

l Protectio n Agency , Office o f Mobil e Sources , "Rational e fo r Estimating Possible Increas e i n VMT/Vehicle" , Decembe r 11,1990 .

R- 3P.3 1

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a jo 0 9 L . 9 1 a 4 1 a .

• i I i i i i I i i i i l i i i • I i • i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i

196 0 196 5 197 0 197 5 198 0 198 5 199 0 199 5 200 0 Mode l Yea r MOBILE4 Fue

l Consumptio n Mode

l Clas s 7 Diesel Penetratio n

$ a M u w a

• i i i I • i i i I i i i i I • i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I

196 0 196 5 197 0 197 5 198 0 198 5 199 0 199 5 200 0 Mode l Yea rP.5 5
M0BILE 4 Fue

l Consumptio n Mode

l Clas s 8 A Diesel Penetratio n

41 8 41 a . 9 1 VI 4 1

I | I • I I | • I I I | I I I I | I I I I | I I I I | I • I I | I I I I

196 0 196 5 197 0 197 5 198 0 198 5 199 0 199 5 200 0
Mode l Yea r MOBILE 4 Fuel Consumptio n Model Clas s 8 B Diesel Penetratio n

O S i _ 4 1 8 4 1 a .

i i i i I i i i i I i i i i l i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i l i i i i

196 0 196 5 197 0 197 5 198 0 198 5 199 0 199 5 200 0
Mode l Yea rM0BILE 4 Fue l Consumptio n Mode

l Bus Diese l Penetratio n P.5 6

10 0 9 0 - 8 0
- 7 0 - 6 0 5 0
- 4 0
- 3 0 - 2 0
- 1 0 - 0 ^^^" ~ Schoo l Commercial

i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i 196 0 196 5 197 0 197 5 198 0 198 5 199 0 199 5 200 0 Calenda r Yea rP.5 7

Appendi x C Mode l Inpu t

Prompt sP.5 8

Inpu t Prompt s Th e MOBILE 4 Fue l Consumptio n mode l interactivel y ask s fo r th e followin g input s pertainin g t o th e scenari o bein g run : Prompt : PLEAS E ENTERTH E SCENARI O DESCRIPTIO N Response : Ente r

a n 80-characte r

descriptio n o f

th e scenari o bein g run . Prompt : PLEAS E ENTERTH E STAR T YEA RA S A 2-DIGI T NUMBE R Response : Ente r

th e beginnin g year

o f th e run . Ente r

onl y th e las t

tw o digit s o f

th e year . Thus , "10 " wil l b e interprete d a s 2010 . An y year betwee n 198 2 an d 202 0 ma y b e entered . Prompt : PLEAS E ENTE RTH E 2-DIGI T ENDIN G YEA R Response : Ente r

m e endin g year

o f th e run . A s before , ente r onl y m e las t

tw o digit s o f

th e year . An y yea r betwee n 198 2 an d 202 0 may b e entered . However , th e endin g year mus t b e equa l t o o r

greate r tha n th e startin g year . Prompt : PLEAS E ENTERTH E INCREMEN T YEA RFACTO RA S INTEGE RVALUE Response : Ente r

th e yearl y increment . Thi s valu e i s th e ste p size , i n years , betwee n th e beginnin g an d endin g years . Fo r example , i f

th e incremen t

i s 1 , the n ever y yea r

betwee n th e startin g an d endin g year , inclusive , i s output . I f th e incremen t

i s 5 , the n ever y fift

h year i s produced . Prompt : D O YO U WAN T T O REPLAC E TH E LD V AND/O RLD T DIESELIZATIO N

RATES ? (1=YES , 2=NO ) Response : Th e mode l i s askin g whethe r t o overrid e di e MOBILE 4 emission s mode l diese l penetratio n rates . I f answere daffirmatively , th e mode l wil l produc e th e followin g prompts . Otherwise , i t

wil l ski p t o th e VM T ADJUSTMEN T promp t below . Prompt : PLEAS E ENTE RTH E NE W LD V & CAR
LUC E LDT l DIESELIZATIO N RAT E (.000
- .005 ) Response : Ente r

aconstant , replacemen t diese l penetratio n rat e fo r

LDV s an d car-lik e LDTls . Th e rat e mus t

li e i n th e rang e .00
- .0 5 (0-5%) , inclusive . C- lP.5 9

Prompt : PLEAS E ENTE RTH E 2-DIGI T

STARTIN G YEA RFO RTH E NE W LD V & CAR-LIK E LDT l DIESELIZATIO

N RAT E (82+ ) Response : Inpu t

th e yea r in whic h th e new diese l penetratio n rat

e become s effective . The rat e will becom

e effective tha

t yea r an dcontinu e a t aconstan t valu e thereafter . A s before , ente r onl y the las t 2 digit s o f th e year . Th e yea r must b e n o earlie r tha n 1982 . Prompt : PLEAS E ENTE RTHE COMMERCIAL LDT1-LDT

2 DIESELIZATIO

N RAT E (.000
- .150 ) Response : Ente

r th e replacemen

t diesel penetratio n rat

e fo r commercia

l LDT l an

dLDT2 . The rat

e mus t li e i n th e rang e .00-.1 5 (0-15%) , inclusive . Prompt : PLEAS E ENTE RTH E 2-DIGI T

STARTIN G YEA RFO RTH E COMMERCIA L LDT1-LDT 2 DIESELIZATIO

N RAT E (82+ ) Thi s input i s analogou s to tha

t entere dfo

r LD V & car-lik

e LDTl . Prompt : PLEAS E SELEC T TH E VM T ADJUSTMEN

T METHO D 1 - NO ADJUSTMEN

T 2 - VMT/VE

H GROWT

H RAT E Response : Thi s promp t ask s whethe

r you wan t to increas e th e amoun

t o f mile s vehicle s travel per year . I f answeredaffirmatively , the following prompt s ar e displayed . Otherwise , th

e CHANG E SCENARI

O prompt will appea r next . Prompt : PLEAS E ENTE RTH E LD V & CAR-LIK

E LDT l VMT/VE H GROWT H RAT E (%/YEAR ) Response : Enter

th e VM T growt h rate , in percent

pe r year , fo r LD V an dcar-lik e LDTl . The rat e ca n b e an y decima l value , positiv e o

r negative ; (e.g. , 1.0) .

C- 2P.6 0

Prompt : PLEAS E ENTE RTH E TRUCK VMT/VE H GROWT H RAT E (%/YEAR

) Response : Ente

r the VM T growt h rate , i n percent pe r year , fo r all remainin g truck s (commercia l LDTl an dheavier) . Th e rat e ca n b e an y decima l value , positiv e o

r negative ; (e.g. , 1.0) . Prompt : PLEAS E ENTE RTHE 2-DIGI T VMT ADJUSTMEN

T BAS E YEA

R Response : Ente

r th e bas e yea r fo r the VM T pe r vehicl e growt h calculation s i s entere di n th e usua l digi t fashion . An

y yea r fro m198 2 throug h 2020 i s allowed . Only thos e year s afte

r th e bas e yea

r ar e affected . Prompt : D O YOU WAN T T O CHANG

E SCENARI O PARAMETERS ? (1=YES , 2=NO ) Response : I

f amistak e was mad e i n enterin g the scenari o inpu t values , thi s prompt

allow s yo u t o abor t th e ru n an dre-ente r the correct

values . Prompt : DO YO

U WAN T TO RU N ANOTHE

RSCENARIO ? (1=YES , 2=NO) Response : Thi s prompt allow s yo u to ru n multipl e scenarios . I

f answeredaffirmatively , yo u will be returnedt

o th e SCENARI

O DESCRIPTIO

N prompt . Otherwis e th

e ru n will end .

C- 3