OAR Box 1830 

Prepped by Ollie Stewart 

Document Number: 

2) IV-A-9 

Docket Number: 

A-87-11 

Printed 11/13/2008 7:20:50 AM Sheet 2 of 232 

p.1 
P.2 

EPA-AA-TEB-EF-91-x 

The MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

April 1991 

BBfilFir 

Mark A. Wolcott 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Ann Arbor, Michigan 

Dennis F. Kahlbaum 

Computer Sciences Corporation 

Ann Arbor, Michigan 
P.3 

NOTICE 

This document has not been peer and administratively reviewed within EPA and is for internal 

Agency use/distribution only. 

\j ^ 

NOTICE 

Technical Reports do not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. They are intended 

to present technical analysis of issues using data which are currently available. The purpose in the 

release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public 

of technical developments that may form the basis for a final EPA decision, position or regulatory 

action. 
P.4 

Table of Contents 

Page 

I. Background 1 

II. Inputs 2 

A. Vehicle Stock 2 

B. Registration Distributions 9 

C. Vehicle Miles Traveled 10 

D. Diesel Market Penetration 11 

E. Fuel Economy 12 

F. Total Emissions 13 

III. Outputs 14 

A. Fleet Fuel Consumption 15 

B. Fleet Vehicle Miles Traveled 15 

C. RoadMPG 15 

D. Vehicle Registrations & Total Emissions 21 

IV. Sensitivity 21 

References R-l 

Appendixes 

A. Model Input-Tables A-l 

B. Model Input-Figures B-l 

C. Model Input-Prompts C-l 
P.5 

The M0BILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

I. Background 

The MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption (M4FC) model was developed to estimate gasoline and 

diesel fuel used by motor vehicles. It is based on the MOBILE4 mobile source emissions model1 

and predicts the amount of gasoline, diesel and alternative* fuels consumed for each of seven 

vehicle classes. 

M4FC is, in several respects, different from its predecessor, the MOBILE3 Fuel 

Consumption model (M3FC). Both the registration and vehicle miles traveled distributions have 

been updated to MOBILE4 levels. Separate city and highway fuel efficiencies have been included 

and allowance is made for the gradual shift to urban driving. Also, the model now directly reads 

output from the MOBILE4 emissions model and estimates tons of hydrocarbons (HC), carbon 

monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and carbon dioxide (C02). 

Several different fuel consumption models have been developed over the years.2'

345

-

6 

None, however, is consistent with MOBILE4. Since MOBILE4 is the emission model used to 

evaluate present and potential motor vehicle regulations, it is desirable to estimate the benefits from 

those regulations with a fuel consumption model for which the underlying assumptions are the 

same. 

While the primary concern behind the Agency's regulations is the public's health and 

welfare, these quantities are difficult to measure. Tons of pollutants eliminated and ambient 

concentrations reduced tend to be easier to estimate. In the past, MOBILE4, in combination with 

Rollback and EKMA,7 were sufficient to estimate the surrogates to health and welfare. 

MOBILE4 itself estimates grams of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and oxides of 

nitrogen emitted for each mile a vehicle travels. In general, these pollution estimates are not 

particularly sensitive to fuel economy. This is particularly true with respect to light duty vehicles 

(LDV) and light duty trucks (LDT). 

Refueling emission losses as calculated in MOBILE4,** however, depend on total vehicle 

miles traveled (VMT) and fuel economy (mpg), as well as many other factors. Further, the 

benefits from controlling fuel volatility are, in part, a function of the total volume of gasoline 

consumed. A fuel consumption model based on MOBILE4 lends itself to calculating the fuel 

consumption benefits of controlling fuel volatility more readily than MOBILE4 used by itself. 

The principle of computing fuel consumption is basically simple. Total fuel consumed is 

a function of the total number of vehicles, the number of miles each vehicle travels, and each 

vehicle's fuel economy. Therefore, the more vehicles there are and the more miles they travel, the 

more fuel they will consume. On the other hand, the greater the fuel economy these vehicles 

obtain, the less fuel they will consume. 

* Since the inputs for the alternative fuels sections of the model are undergoing internal EPA 

review for the Alternative Motor Fuels report, the scenarios included in this report assume all 

vehicles are powered by conventional fuels. 

** Actual refueling losses depend upon the number of refueling events. 
P.6 

In the sections that follow a detailed description of each model input is presented. 

Included are registrations, VMT, and mpg for each vehicle class. This discussion of inputs is 

followed by a presentation of the model's outputs. These outputs include fleet fuel consumption 

and vehicle miles traveled, road fuel economy, vehicle registrations and total emissions. Also 

included is a sensitivity analysis that shows how gasoline consumption, vehicle miles traveled and 

carbon dioxide emissions vary as one changes certain critical input assumptions. Finally, the 

appendicies display the input data in both table and graphical form as well as explain the prompts 

proffered by the model during its execution. 

II. Inputs 

As noted in the introduction, the principle of computing fuel consumption is basically 

simple. Total fuel consumed is a function of the total number of vehicles, die number of miles 

each vehicle travels and each vehicle's fuel economy. In mathematical notation it is represented by 

the following equation: 

Fuel Consumption=[Number of Vehicles] • [VMT]/[Fuel Economy] 

However, this equation assumes that all vehicles have the same age, VMT, and fuel 

economy. In reality, the vehicles operating in any given calendar year are a mixture of model 

years. Different model years have different fuel economy characteristics and vehicles of different 

ages have different travel characteristics. Also, since diesel fuel has a higher heating value than 

gasoline fuel, fuel type is a factor in fuel consumption estimates. Thus, a more accurate equation is 

Fuel Consumption(i,j,k)=[Number of Vehicles(ijjc)] • 

[VMT(i,j4c)]/[Fuel Economy(i,j,k)] 

where i=age, j=fuel type, and k=vehicle class. This is the form of the equation used by the M4FC 

model. In M4FC age (i) ranges from 1 to 30 years; fuel type (j) represents either gasoline, diesel 

or one of several alternative fuels and vehicle class (k) represents one of seven vehicle classes. 

Further, since M4FC is capable of computing fuel consumption estimates from 1982 to 

2020 and, since at least a few vehicles are assumed to remain operational for up to 30 years, most 

input data must be available from 1953 through 2020. Operationally this has often meant that the 

time series of a variable remains constant at one level for some very early years and, in most cases, 

remains constant at a different level for all years beyond the year 2000. 

II.A. Vehicle Stock 

The first element of the fuel consumption equation is referred to as the vehicle stock, the 

total number of vehicles operating in a given calendar year. Vehicle stock estimates are required 

for each vehicle class for every projection year. 

The initial step of estimating vehicle stock is to obtain historical total stock estimates. 

Historical estimates are available principally from two sources, the R.L. Polk Company8 and the 

Federal Highway Administration (FHwA).9 
P.7 

Although the truck stock estimates from these two sources are similar for all years, car 

registrations differ markedly. Figures 1-2 show the vehicle stock estimates from these two 

sources. 

e 

o 

3 

S 

BO 

U 

at 

Figure 1 

Car Registrations 

1 1 11111 1 111111 1 111111 1 11 1 

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 

i I i i 

1985 1990 

Year 

e 

o 

00 

u 

Oi 

Figure 2 

Truck Registrations 

1950 

1111 1 11111111 1 11111 1 

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 

Year 
P.8 

According to Oak Ridge National Laboratories (ORNL),10 there are several reasons for 

these differences: 

1. The FHwA count includes all vehicles that have been registered throughout 

the calendar year. Therefore, their number includes vehicles retired during 

the year and double counts vehicles that have been registered twice in either 

different or possibly the same states. The Polk count only includes vehicles 

that are registered on July 1, thus factoring in scrappage, to some degree, 

and avoiding double counting. 

2. Beginning with the 1980 estimate, Polk counts vans as light trucks, rather 

than passenger cars. The FHwA count includes vans as passenger cars or 

trucks, depending on individual state classifications. 

It is for these reasons that the Polk estimates appear to be a better indicator of the average 

automobile stock during a calendar year than are the FHwA estimates. 

While these same reasons apply to estimates of track registrations, the two groups' truck 

estimates are closer, since a truck is less likely to be re-registered within a given calendar year. 

The M4FC model uses the Polk values as the basis for its historic car and truck vehicle stocks. It 

also uses Polk values to project the future stock of cars and trucks. 

Figure 3 shows that the average number of passenger vehicles per person steadily 

increased between 1950 and 1979. In 1980 Polk classified 1,310,918 passenger cars as light 

trucks.11 

Figure 3 

Cars per Person 

• i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i 

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 

Year 
P.9 

Classification of light vehicles as cars or trucks has always been difficult. To a certain 

extent, some have always used light tracks in the same way that they use passenger cars; i.e. as 

their principal means of personal transponation. This is clearly evident in the use of light pickup 

trucks and mini-vans today. Since the frequency of this type of truck use may have begun to 

increase with the introduction of emission standards as early as 1969, the 1960-1969 trends in 

vehicle ownership are used in the projection methodology described below. 

To allow for the shift from light duty vehicles to light duty trucks while at the same time 

maintaining the historic increase in the number of passenger-type vehicles per person, the model 

uses the product of expected population12 and the 1960-1969 trend in passenger vehicles per 

person to calculate both the historic and the projected stock of cars and light trucks used as cars: 

Historic Split (Pre-1990) - Polk registrations are used directly to estimate the total 

stock of light duty vehicles while the difference between the estimated passenger 

car stock based on the 1960-1969 trend in the number of passenger vehicles per 

person and Polk light duty vehicle registrations is used to estimate the number of 

light duty trucks that are used as light duty vehicles. 

Future Split (1990+) - The 1960-1969 trend in the number of passenger vehicles 

per person is also used to estimate the future stock of light duty vehicles and light 

duty trucks that are used as light duty vehicles.41 The model splits the projected 

total of passenger-type vehicles into its component parts (LDVs and LDTls that 

operate like LDVs) by assuming that the sales fraction of personal vehicles that are 

trucks remains constant at 1990 levels for all years after 1990. 

The sales fraction of personal vehicles that are trucks is calculated in the following 

manner. First, the 29.6 percent of the light duty fleet that are light duty trucks in 

199013 is adjusted downward to 27.0 percent to account for the increase in freight 

carried by trucks between 1969 and 1990.11 Second, the difference between that 

value and the imputed 1969 fraction of the light duty fleet that are light trucks is 

calculated. See Figures 4-5. 

The total stock of commercial trucks** is projected in a similar fashion. 

** 

Light duty trucks that are used as light duty vehicles are assumed to travel and be scrapped at 

the same rate as light duty vehicles. They are also assumed to reflect the diesel penetration 

rate of cars. 

Commercial trucks are defined for the purposes of this report as Class 1-8B trucks less those 

Class 1 and 2 trucks used as passenger vehicles. 
P.10 

e 

o 

a. 

u 

•s 

S 

Figure 4 

LDT Market Fraction 

o.i-

-,—,—• i -i—i—|—i—i—r—i—i—r - '—i—|— r -r 

1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 

Year 

J3 

Figure 5 

Percent of Total Freight by Track 

• i i i t i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i 

I960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 

Year 
P.11 

In the case of commercial trucks, account is also taken of the increase in the proportion of 

freight that is carried by tracks. Figure 5 shows that, since 1960, tracks have increased their share 

of freight from 21.7% to 25.2%. The 1960-1969 trend in commercial track stock shown in Figure 

6 is expected to continue as the national economy continues to become more of a service economy 

and as all industries try to reduce their inventory costs through just-in-time ordering techniques. 

Figure 7 shows the number of commercial trucks per person estimated by this methodology. 

c 

o 

a 

"3 

a. 

o 

a. 

o 

S 

Figure 6 

Commercial Trucks/(US Population * Freight Index) 

0.14 

0.04 

• ' • 

Light Trucks Used as 

Passenger Vehicles 

i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 

Year 

Trucks/(Population*Index) = - 4.2714 + Year*2.2003e-3 RA2 = 0.900 

I 

Figure 7 

Estimated Commercial Tracks per Person 

0 . 0 I ' i • i i • • • • l ' • > > i • < • • i i i i i i i i i i | • i i i | 

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 

Year 
P.12 

The total stock of commercial trucks is distributed to the various weight classes by 

projected sales according to the following recursive procedure: 

1. Obtain the 1982* Truck Information and Use Survey (TTUS) class-specific 

track stocks.14-

15 

2. Scrap a constant 5.7 percent** of vehicles in each weight class. 

3. Add 1983 Class 1 sales from MVMA Facts and Figures11 to obtain a 

preliminary Class 1 stock estimate for 1983. 

4. Subtract 1983 MVMA Class 1 sales from 1983 LDT (Class 1+2A) sales 

from EPA's Fuel Economy Trends report13 to obtain 1983 Class 2A sales 

estimates. Add these to the 2A stock estimate to obtain the preliminary 1983 

stock estimate. 

5. Subtract the Trends report LDT 1983 sales from the MVMA Class 1+2 sales 

to obtain Class 2B sales. Add these to the 2B stock estimate to obtain the 

preliminary 1983 stock estimate. 

6. Add Classes 3-8B sales from the Heavy-Duty Vehicle Emission Conversion 

Factors II report17 to obtain the preliminary 1983 stock estimates for these 

classes. 

7. After the scrapped vehicles are removed from the fleet and sales are added, 

the number of light duty trucks that are used as passenger cars is subtracted 

from Class 1 trucks and the resulting total number of commercial trucks is 

compared to the projected Polk figures. These are then renormalized by 

weight class to reflect not only the Polk figures but also follow the vehicle 

stock trends assumed for MOBILE4. 

8. This process is repeated for each subsequent year based on the following 

sales assumptions: 

0

 Class 1, 2A and 2B sales estimates are calculated from 

MVMA Facts and Figures11 and EPA's Fuel Economy 

Trends13 through 1989. The 1982-1989 average classspecific sales are grown at a two percent per year rate 

thereafter in keeping with the assumption regarding 

Classes 5-6 sales used in EPA's Conversion Factor 

report.17 

* These are the most recent available data. An updated survey is in the process of being 

completed by the U.S. Department of Commerce. 

** This scrappage rate is an average of the 1950 to 1989 calendar year estimates published in 

Ward's Automotive Yearbook16 (Actual sales and scrappage rates are used for 1983-1989. 

The constant 5.7 percent scrappage rate is used for calendar years 1990 and later.) 
P.13 

Classes 3-8B sales estimates from the Conversion Factor 

report17 are used for the 1982-2000 period. Thereafter, a 

two percent per year growth rate is also assumed for these 

classes. 

Historical (1950-1988) stocks of both public and school buses were derived from FHwA 

Highway Statistics9 Table MV-10. Future stocks were estimated by applying the trend in the 

number of buses per capita to the expected population.12 See Figure 8. 

0.003 

0.002-

u 

6i 

.c 

u 

> 

0.001-

Figure 8 

Buses per Person 

» i • • • • i • • •« i • • • • i • • _*_i_L 

School/Person = - 7.1447e-2 + Year*3.7011e-5 R*2 = 0.983 

WW-.. . 

l

'<„.„„l„....Ml.|lllllllllll|llllllllll|||a||IIMII 

Public/Person = 4.6511e-3 - Year*2.1203e-6 RA2 = 0.008 

0.000 | i i i i | i i 

1950 1955 

I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i » < I 

Mimimiimi Public 

— ^ School 

1960 1965 1970 

Year 

1975 1980 1985 1990 

II.B. Registration Distributions 

In any calendar year, the total vehicle stock consists of vehicles of different vintages. 

Since each vintage has its own unique blend of fuel economy and VMT, it is necessary to know 

how many vehicles there are of each age. The MOBILE4 registration distributions form the basis 

upon which these estimates are made for M4FC. (For an explanation of these distributions, see 

"MOBILE4 Travel Characteristics".18) 

However, before the MOBILE4 distributions can be used in the fuel consumption model, 

certain modifications are needed. The MOBILE4 registration estimates are assumed to be as of 

July 1 of each year, before the first model year's sales are complete. In addition, all vehicles older 

than 19 years of age are added together and placed in the 20+ age group. To adjust for these 

differences, the original MOBILE4 registration equations, covering ages 2 to 19 years, were 

extrapolated forward to a full first year and extended backward to 30 years of age. The resulting 

series was then renormalized so that the total adds up to 100 percent. 
P.14 

Since there are eight vehicle class-fuel type combinations in MOBILE4 and many more 

than that in the M4FC model, the mapping scheme shown in Table 1 is used: 

Table 1 

Registration Distributions 

M4FC 

Vehicle 

Class 

LDV 

LDT1 

LDT2 

Class 2B 

Class 3 

Class 4 

Class 5 

Class 6 

Class 7 

Class 8A 

Class 8B 

School Buses 

Public Buses 

Off-Highway 

MOBILE4 Registration 

Distribution Used 

Gas 

LDV 

LDT 

LDT 

HDGV 

HDGV 

HDGV 

HDGV 

HDGV 

HDGV 

HDGV 

HDGV 

-

-

-

Diesel 

LDV 

LDT 

LDT 

HDDV 

HDDV 

HDDV 

HDDV 

HDDV 

HDDV 

HDDV 

HDDV 

-

-

-

To actually obtain the number of vehicles of a certain age, the calendar year dependent 

vehicle stock is multiplied by the fraction of vehicles at that age: 

Number of Vehicles (age)=[Vehicle Stock] • 

[Registration Distribution(age)] 

where age ranges from 1 to 30. 

With the exception of buses and off-highway vehicles,* this methodology is used for 

each year and vehicle class analyzed by the model. The registration data for buses and offhighway vehicles are calendar year dependent rather than age dependent and so do not require 

registration distributions in their calculations. 

II.C. Vehicle Miles Traveled 

Total vehicle miles traveled per year is simply the product of the average number of miles 

each vehicle travels and the total number of vehicles in the fleet. The number of miles traveled per 

vehicle is dependent on age as well as class. M4FC uses the VMT age curves found in the 

MOBILE4 model and shown in Table 2 below. (For further detail on these curves, see 

"MOBILE4 Travel Characteristics".18) The mapping scheme is nearly the same as that used for 

registration distributions. 

10 
P.15 

Table 2 

Mileage Accumulation Distributions 

M4FC 

Vehicle 

Class 

LDV 

LDT1 

LDT2 

Class 2B 

Class 3 

Class 4 

Class 5 

Class 6 

Class 7 

Class 8A 

Class 8B 

MOBILE4 Mileage Accumulation 

Distribution Used 

Qas 

LDGV 

LDGT1 

LDGT2 

HDGV 

HDGV 

HDGV 

HDGV 

HDGV 

HDGV 

HDGV 

HDGV 

Diesel 

LDDV 

LDDT 

LDDT 

LDGT2 

LHDDV 

LHDDV 

LHDDV 

MHDDV 

MHDDV 

MHDDV 

HHDDV 

This scheme is fairly straightforward except for Class 2B. The LDGT2 distribution was 

assigned to Class 2B because this class behaves more like the LDGT2 class than like any of the 

other heavy duty classes. 

For all distributions it is assumed that vehicles over 20 years of age travel annually the 

same distance as age 20 vehicles. 

II.D. Diesel Market Penetration 

Each model year a certain number of gas and diesel vehicles are produced. The fraction 

of diesel vehicles compared to the total number of vehicles produced for a given class is referred to 

as the diesel market penetration rate. In M4FC, these rates are used to estimate the number of gas 

and diesel vehicles operating in each model year. This is accomplished by using the following 

formulas: 

Number of Diesel Vehicles(year)=[Number of Vehicles(year)] 

[Diesel Penetration(year)] 

Number of Gas Vehicles(year)=[Number of Vehicles(year)] • 

[1-Diesel Penetration(year)] 

The diesel penetration rates used in M4FC are the same as those in MOBILE4.1 

The treatment of these vehicle categories is slighdy different than the others. Only total VMT 

and fleet mpg are available for buses. Therefore, individual model year distributions are not 

included in the model. 

11 
P.16 

At present, the future dieselization of the LDV and LDT fleets is uncertain. To allow for 

this uncertainty, the model has a provision to place a maximum limit on the LDV and LDT diesel 

penetration rates after 1988. This rate can be set in the range of 0 to 5 percent for LDVs and from 

0 to 15 percent for LDTs.* Operationally, this means that the diesel penetration rate assumed by 

the MOBILE4 emissions model is replaced by the limit imposed by this option beginning in the 

year specified. 

II.E. Fuel Economy 

Fuel economy estimates are derived from a variety of sources. An internal EPA 

memorandum "Fuel Consumption Model Inputs"19 provides new vehicle fleet road mpg for LDVs 

and LDTs for the 1962-1974 period.** EPA's Fuel Economy Trends report13 provides new 

vehicle test mpg for LDVs and LDTs for the 1975-1990 period. Absent any changes in the 

Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, test fuel economy is assumed to remain 

constant at 1990 levels for all projection years. 

Since these estimates are not fuel type specific, a diesel advantage factor is included to 

indicate the degree to which diesel fueled vehicles obtain a fuel economy greater than their gasoline 

counterparts. These two estimates, along with the model year specific diesel penetration rates for 

each model year, are combined to estimate separate gasoline and diesel fuel economies. See 

Appendix A. The two equations used are: 

Gas mpg=[Fleet mpg]«([l -Diesel Penetration] 

+[Diesel Penetration]/[Diesel Advantage Factor]) 

Diesel mpg=[Gas mpg]»[Diesel Advantage Factor] 

Test fuel economy is discounted to road fuel economy by applying a constant 0.90 

multiplicative factor to city driving and a constant 0.78 factor to highway driving.20*** These are 

weighted together using the calendar-year-specific proportion of urban driving listed in Highway 

Statistics9 to arrive at a road fuel economy. See Figure 9. Actual values were used for the period 

1968-1988. Beyond 1988, the 1968-1988 trend was linearly extrapolated. This gradual increase 

in the proportion of all driving that is urban is referred to in this report as "urbanization". 

* The 1988 diesel penetration rate for LDVs and LDTs was 0.0% and 0.2%, respectively. 

** MPG values prior to 1962 are assumed to be the same as those in 1962. 

*** No adjustment was made in this analysis for the CAFE allowance associated with changes in 

EPA's test procedure. Historically, this has amounted to between 0.0010 and 

0.0050.21'

22

-

23

-

24

-

25 

12 
P.17 

70 

Figure 9 

Urban VMT Percentage 

• • • • • •••• • 

4 0-

30-

2 0-

10-

0 | i i i i | i i i i | i i i i | i 

1965 1970 1975 1980 

Year 

• i I i i i i 

1985 1990 

EPA's Conversion Factor report17 provided separate gas and diesel road mpg values for 

1962 to 2000 model years for class 2B-8B tracks. As with the light duty classes, mpg values prior 

to 1962 were assigned the 1962 values. 

II.F. Total Emissions 

Total highway vehicle hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide and oxides of nitrogen emissions 

are estimated as simply a product of fleet VMT and MOBILE41 emission factors. Carbon dioxide 

emissions are calculated by using a carbon balance method.26 

The carbon balance method relies on the assumption that mass, in the form of carbon, is 

conserved in the combustion process. Therefore, given the amount of carbon in the fuel, one can 

determine the amount of C02 released into the air as die difference between the total amount of 

carbon in the fuel and the amounts of hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide released in the exhaust 

and through evaporation. 

Three sets of MOBILE4 emissions model input assumptions were used to calculate total 

emissions: 

Projection 

Year 

1975-1988 

1989-1991 

1992+ 

I/M 

Program 

No I/M 

Standard I/M 

Standard I/M 

Gasoline 

RVP 

11.5 psi 

10.5 psi 

9.0 psi 

13 
P.18 

All other MOBILE4 inputs were left at their default settings, including temperature (75°F), 

speed (19.6 mph) and vehicle operating condition (20.6% VMT in cold start mode, 27.3% VMT in 

hot start mode and 52.1% VMT in stabilized operating mode). Thus, the HC, CO and NOx 

inventories shown will not reflect the full range of input conditions used to model highway mobile 

source emissions by more refined methods.27-

28'29

-

30 

Nevertheless, their inclusion in this report allows the model to project C02 emissions 

through the following two carbon balance equations: 

Gasoline: CQ2 = 2421 - mpg «(0.866 HC + 0.429 CO) 

0.273 mpg 

Diesel: C02 = 2778 - mpe »(0.866 HC + 0.429 CO) 

0.273 mpg 

The C02 emissions inventory is considerably less sensitive than the HC, CO or NOx 

inventories to variations in MOBILE4 input assumptions. 

III. Outputs 

The M4FC model outputs fuel consumption estimates for seven different vehicle classes 

and seven different fuel types. These classes and their composition are summarized in Tables 3-4. 

Table 3 

Vehicle Classes 

Designation 

LDV 

LDT 

Classes 2B-5 

Classes 6-8A 

Class 8B 

School Buses 

Public Buses 

Off-Highway* 

Description 

Light Duty Vehicles (passenger cars) 

Light Duty Tracks , 0-8500 lbs GVW 

Light Heavy Duty Tracks, 8501-19500 lbs GVW 

Heavy Heavy Duty Tracks, 19501-50000 lbs GVW 

Heavy Heavy Duty Trucks, 50000+lbs GVW 

Agricultural, industrial/commercial, construction and 

marine/recreation vehicles 

Only gasoline fuel consumed by off-highway motor vehicles, such as farm and construction 

equipment, is estimated. Estimating diesel fuel consumed by off-highway motor vehicles is 

beyond the scope of this report. 

14 
P.19 

Designation 

Gasoline 

Diesel 

E85 

E100 

M85 

M100 

CNG 

Table 4 

Fuel Types 

Description 

Gasoline+Gasohol (E10) 

100% Diesel 

85% Ethanol 15% Gasoline 

100% Ethanol 

85% Methanol 15% Gasoline 

100% Methanol 

100% Compressed Natural Gas 

Tables 5-9 are copies of the 1990 model output. Several tables are provided for each 

projection year: 

° Fleet Fuel Consumption 

0

 Fleet Vehicle Miles Traveled 

° Road MPG 

0

 Vehicle Registrations 

0

 Total Emissions 

III.A. Fleet Fuel Consumption 

The top one-half of the table lists the diesel and gasoline fuel consumed by light duty 

vehicles, light duty tracks and by three sets of heavy duty truck classes. Also listed is 

consumption by school and commercial buses. Finally, off-highway gasoline consumption is 

included. 

Below the conventional fuel consumption estimates are the fuel consumption estimates for 

alternatively fuel vehicles. These are vehicles designed to ran on ethanol (E85 and El00), 

methanol (M85 and M100) and compressed natural gas (CNG).* 

III.B. Fleet Vehicle Miles Traveled 

The fleet vehicle miles traveled estimate is formatted in a similar fashion. Diesel and 

gasoline VMT is listed in the top half of the table while VMT estimates for alternatively fueled 

vehicles are listed in the bottom half. 

III.C. Road MPG 

The mpg table lists road mpg both for new vehicles and for the fleet as a whole. 

Since me inputs for the alternative fuels sections of the model are undergoing internal EPA 

review for the Alternative Motor Fuels report, the scenarios included in this report assume all 

vehicles are powered by conventional fuels. 

15 
TableS 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

1990 

Fleet Fuel Consumption 

(x 109 Gallons/Year, x 106 Barrels/Day) 

Diesel Gasoline 

Vehicle Class 

LDV 

LDT 

Classes 2B-5 

Classes 6-8A 

Class 8B 

School Buses 

Public Buses 

Off-Highway 

Total LDV-tLDT 

Total HDV 

Total Highway 

Grand Total 

Gallons 

0.713 

0.568 

1.177 

4.989 

15.383 

0.264 

0.682 

0.000 

1.281 

22.494 

23.774 

23.774 

0.046 

0.037 

0.077 

0.325 

1.003 

0.017 

0.044 

0.000 

0.084 

1.467 

1.551 

1.551 

Alternative Fuels 

57.217 

29.133 

5.717 

1.501 

0.025 

0.061 

0.000 

3.019 

86.350 

7.304 

93.654 

96.673 

BPlVPav 

3.732 

1.900 

0.373 

0.098 

0.002 

0.004 

0.000 

0.197 

5.633 

0.476 

6.109 

6.306 

Alcohols Gases 

Ethanol Methanol Total CNG Total Grand Total 

LDV 

LDT 

Classcs2B-S 

Classes 6-8A 

CUss8B 

School Buses 

Public Buses 

Off-Highway 

Total LDV+LDT 

Total HDV 

Total Highway 

Grand Total 

E85 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

E100 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

Total 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

M85 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

Mioo 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

Total 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

Gallons 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

BBL/Dav 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

CCF 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

Gallons 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

CCF 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

Gallons 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

Gallons 

57.930 

29.701 

6.894 

6.489 

15.407 

0.325 

0.682 

3.019 

87.631 

29.797 

117.428 

120.448 

BBL/Day 

3.779 

1.937 

0.450 

0.423 

1.005 

0.021 

0.044 

0.197 

5.716 

1.944 

7.660 

7.857 

Note: This run assumes the following fuel economy adjustments: 

Standard Shortfall. 

Urbanization, 

No CAFE Growth. 

Default M4FC 

ho 
Table 6 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

1990 

Fleet Vehicle Miles Traveled 

(xl09MiksArcar) 

Total VM T 

_Dj£seJ Gasoline 

LDV 

LDT 

Classes 2B-5 

Classes6-8A 

Class 8B 

School Buses 

Public Buses 

Total LDV+LDT 

Total HDV 

Grand Total 

Defauli M4FC 

E85 

0.00 

OJOO 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

Ethanol 

E100 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

Ale 

Total 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

LDV 

LDT 

Classes 2B-5 

Classes 6-8A 

Class 8B 

School Buses 

Public Buses 

Total LDV+LDT 

Total HDV 

Grand Total 

ohols 

Methanol 

M85 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

MI0 0 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

18.68 

14.22 

17.25 

34.46 

83.81 

3.11 

3.72 

32.90 

142.3 5 

175.2 5 

Total VMT 

Alternative Fuels 

Total 

OJOO 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

Total 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

CNG 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

1173.31 

481.24 

58.93 

8.71 

0.09 

0.50 

0.00 

1654.55 

68.23 

1722.77 

3ases 

Tv|a| 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

Total 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

O.(K) 

0.00 

Total 

1191.9 9 

495.45 

76.18 

43.17 

83.90 

3.61 

3.72 

1687.4 4 

210.58 

1898.0 2 

•0 

ho 
LDV 

LDT 

Classes 2B 5 

Classes 6-8A 

CUss 8B 

School Buses 

Public Buses 

Total LDV+LDT 

Total HDV 

Grand Total 

LDV 

LDT 

Classes 2B-5 

Classes 6-8A 

Class 8B 

School Buses 

Public Buses 

Tola! LDV+LDT 

Total HDV 

Grand Total 

JHesel 

27.63 

24.95 

14.55 

7.01 

5.49 

11.79 

5.45 

26.13 

6.52 

7.24 

Diesel 

26.21 

25.02 

14.66 

6.91 

5.45 

11.79 

5.45 

25.68 

6J3 

7.37 

Table 7 

MOBHJE4 Fuel 

Gas 

23.03 

17.26 

10.62 

5.93 

0.00 

8.20 

0.00 

20.89 

9.65 

19.67 

J2as 

20.51 

16.52 

10.31 

5.80 

3.46 

8.20 

0.00 

19.16 

9.34 

18.40 

Consumption Model 

IV-n) 

Road MPG 

New Vehicle 

E85 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

Sthanol 

Fleet 

Ethanol 

E85 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

.ELOO 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

ElOO 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

Methanol 

_M85 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

MlOO 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

Methanol 

M85 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

MIQO 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

CNG 

MPCCF 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.(K) 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

CNG 

MPCCF 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

0.00 

Note: This run assumes the following fuel economy adjustments: 

Standard Shortfall, 

Urbanization, 

No CAFE Growth. 

Default M4FC 
Table 8 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

LDV 

LDT 

Classes 2B-5 

Classes 6-8A 

Class 8B 

School Buses 

Public Buses 

Total LDV+LDT 

Total HDV 

Grand Total 

Diesel 

1.968 

1.247 

1.156 

1.396 

1.386 

0.454 

0.118 

3.215 

4.510 

7.725 

Gas 

122.690 

43.384 

5.102 

0.797 

0.021 

0X)73 

0.000 

166.074 

5.992 

172.066 

Vehicle Registrations 

(xlO6 Vehicles) 

Ethanol 

E85 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

ElOO 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

Methanol 

M85 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

MlOO 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

CNG 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

Total 

124.658 

44.631 

6.258 

2.193 

1.407 

0.527 

0.118 

169.289 

10.503 

179.791 
Table 9 

Mobile4 Fuel Consumption Model 

LDV 

LDT 

Classes 2B-5 

Classes 6-8A 

Class 8B 

School Buses 

Public Buses 

Total LDV+LDT 

Total HDV 

Grand Total 

HC 

3.058 

1.575 

0.243 

0.148 

0.218 

0.011 

0.010 

4.634 

0.630 

5.263 

Total Emissions 

(xlO6 Metric Tons/Year) 

CO 

19.208 

10.912 

1.602 

0.955 

1.014 

0.069 

0.045 

30.120 

3.685 

33.804 

NOx 

1.889 

0.940 

0.165 

0.683 

1.541 

0.060 

0.068 

2.829 

2.517 

5.346 

C02 

474.777 

241.990 

59383 

62.104 

154.465 

3.082 

6.841 

716.766 

285.874 

1002.638 

Default M4FC 

MOBILE4 RUN: 1975-1988: no 1M 11.5 RVP/1989-1991: std IM 103 RVP/1992-2020: std IM 9.0 RVP 
P.25 

III.D. Vehicle Registrations and Total Emissions 

The top half of last table lists total registrations by vehicle and fuel type. Total HC, CO, 

NOx and C02 emissions are listed in the second half of the table. 

IV. Sensitivity 

Figures 10-12 show the sensitivity gasoline consumption, VMT and C02 emissions to 

two of the most significant MOBILE4 input assumptions: diesel penetration and VMT per 

vehicle.31 

The "Limited Diesel" case shows the difference in gasoline consumption that would result 

by assuming that the fractions of new model year light duty vehicles and trucks that are diesel 

powered remain constant at 1988 levels (0.0%, 0.2%).13 

The "VMT Growth" case shows the difference in consumption that would result by 

assuming that VMT per vehicle increases at 1.0% per year for light duty vehicles and light duty 

trucks that operate as passenger vehicles. 

Finally, "Diesel & Growth" case shows the effect of combining the two assumptions, of 

constant diesel penetration rates and increasing VMT per passenger-type vehicle. 

As can be seen from the figures, gasoline consumption increases as diesel penetration 

declines and as VMT per vehicle increases. Both VMT and C02 increase as VMT per vehicle 

increases. 

o 

5H 

c o 

=3 

o 

CD 

e 

o 

'S. 

o U 

Figure 10 

Gasoline Consumption 

2020 

21 
P.26 

Figure 11 

Total VMT 

a 

o 

a 

5 

5000 

4000 -

3000-

2000 

1000-

1990 1995 2000 

T T 

2005 2010 

Year 

2015 2020 

Figure 12 

Carbon Dioxide Emissions 

3000 

u 

e 

E2 

•fi 

u 

c o 

2000-

1000 

2000 

T 1 r 

2005 2010 2015 

Year 

2020 

22 
P.27 

References 
P.28 

References 

1

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, User's Guide to 

MOBILE4. EPA-AA-TEB-89-01, February, 1989. 

2

 Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., The Motor Fuel Consumption Model, 

Fourteenth Periodical Report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy, 

December, 1988. 

3

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy Analysis, Costs and 

Benefits of Reducing Lead in Gasoline. EPA-230-03-84-005, May 1984. 

4

 U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy 

Outlook 1990. "Transportation Spreadsheet Model" (Transportation Energy Demand, 

February, 1990). 

5

 U.S. Department of Energy, Oakridge National Laboratory, Alternative Motor Fuel 

Use Model. Model Theory and Design and Users Guide. March, 1990. 

6

 Data Resources, Inc., U.S. Oil Outlook: A Methodological Investigation of the 

Transportation Sector. Spring, 1989. 

7

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality, Planning and 

Standards, User's Manual for Modified Rollback/EKMA Strategy Assessment 

Model. EPA-450/4-81-025, July, 1981. 

8

 R.L. Polk and Company, Detroit, MI. 

9

 U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway 

Statistics. 1985 -1988. Table VM-1. 

1

 ° U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Transportation Energy 

Data Book: Edition 9. ORNL-6325, April, 1987. 

n Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association of the United States, Inc., Faas & Figures 

12ft, 1990. 

12

 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 1985 OBERS BEA 

Regional Projections. Volume 2. Metropolitan Statistical Area Projections to 2035. 

13

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, Light-Duty 

Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends Through 1990. 

EPA/AA/CTAB/90-03, June, 1990. 

R-l 
P.29 

References (continued) 

14

 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Track Inventory and Use 

Survey. 1982. 

15

 Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., Analysis of the 1982 Truck Inventory and 

Use Survey. December, 1986. 

16

 Wards Automotive Yearbook. 52 Edition. 1990. 

17

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, Heavv-Dutv 

Vehicle Emission Conversion Factors II 1962-2000. EPA-AA-SDSB-89-01, 

October, 1988. 

18

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, MOBLLE4 Travel 

Characteristics. July, 1990. 

19

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, "Fuel 

Consumption Model Inputs", Note from Karl Hellman to Ralph Stahman, October 

17, 1984. 

20

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, "On the Stability 

of the EPA MPG Adjustment Factors", SAE 851216, 1986. 

21 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, "1986 Model 

Year Passenger Automobile CAFE Adjustment Coefficient", May 21,1986. 

22

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, "CAFE 

Adjustment Coefficient for 1987 Model Year Passenger Automobiles", April 7, 

1987. 

23

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, "CAFE 

Adjustment Coefficient for 1988 Model Year Passenger Automobiles", February 8, 

1988. 

24

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, "CAFE 

Adjustment Coefficient for 1989 Model Year Passenger Automobiles", March 15, 

1989. 

25

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, "CAFE 

Adjustment Coefficient for 1990 Model Year Passenger Automobiles", May 15, 

1990. 

2 6 Title 40 Code of Federal Regulations Part 600.113-88. 

R-2 
P.30 

References (continued) 

27

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and 

Standards, National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates 1940-1988. March, 1990. 

28

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and 

Standards, National Air Quality and Emission Trends Report 1988. March, 1990. 

29

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, Volatility 

Regulations for Gasoline and Alcohol Blends Sold in Calendar Years 1992 and 

Beyond. Air Quality Analysis. 1990. 

30 

31 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, Interim 

Regulations For Cold Temperature Carbon Monoxide Emissions Air Quality 

Analysis. 1990. 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, "Rationale for 

Estimating Possible Increase in VMT/Vehicle", December 11,1990. 

R-3 
P.31 

Appendix A 

Model Input Tables 
P.32 

M4FC 

Trucks 

FHwA Trucks 

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P.40 

Appendix B 

Model Input Figures 
M0BILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

LDV Registration Distributions 

P.41 

e 

u 

Age 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

LDT1-LDT2 Registration Distributions 

a v u 

u 

V 

a. 

Age 
P.42 

M0BILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Classes 2B-8B Registration Distributions 

« 

17 -

16-

1 5

 " 

14 -

13 -

12-

11 -

10 -

9 -

8-

7-

6-

5-

4 -

« 3-

2 -

1 -

u 

i 

s 

1 

\ 

s 

\ 

% ^ 

1 s 

\ s 

\ % 

\ \ 

" • " J»., Ilium 

I MMIIMIIIIIIII 

Gas 

Diesel 

10 15 20 25 30 

Age 
M0BILE4 Fuel Consu nption Model 

LDV VMT 

P.43 

•o 

e 

o 

•a 

s 

> 

g o I * * • . i . . . . i . . . • i . . . , | 

80 -

70-

60-

50-

4 0 -

30-

0 | i • i i | • i i i | i i i i | • • • i | i 

Gas 

IIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Difise l 

10 15 20 25 30 

A g e 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

LDTl VMT 

OS 

V 

•0 

e 

09 

Iff 

3 

© 

> 

90 i i i i l i i i i I i i i i i i l i i i i l i i i 

80 -

70-

60-

50-

4 0 -

« 

30-

•IIIIHMIIMIII Diesel 

20 25 30 

A g e 
P.44 

M0BILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

LDT2 VMT 

9 0 I '•••' • i i i ' 

m 

•o 

a 

a 

IK 

a 

o 

n 

s 

> 

8 0 -

7 0 -

6 0 -

5 0 -

4 0 -

l • i • • l 

lllllllllllllll l 

Gas 

Diesel 

Age 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Class 2B VMT 

90 

80-

70 

ear 

>> "a 

V 

B 

%* 

o 

M 

a 

Vm ) 

S 

e 

n 

^ 

H 

> 

. 

60-

" 

50-

• 

4 0 -

• 

30-

• 

20-

10-

• * • • I ... . I .. . • I . .. . I • .. . I . . . 

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 

5 10 15 20 

' I ' 

25 30 

Gas 

Diesel 

Age 
P.45 

M0BILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Classes 3-5 VMT 

L. 

91 

V 

•o 

a 

09 

VI 

a 

o 

90 • »••'••• • i 

8 0-

70-

60-

5 0-

4 0-

1

 • • • 

""••••M.'S: ••••«•.....„„„.„ 

• • i i i • • i • i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i 

10 15 20 

r 

25 

•" •'••• Diese l 

30 

Aee 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Classes 6-8A VMT 

a 

os 

Vi 

a 

o 

> 

90 • • • • i • • • • i • • • • i • • • • i i I i i I_J -

80-

7 0-

6 0-

0 | i i i i | i 

•*«.. IIIIIIMia IM MIUIIU ••HUIMMIH Ml !•••!•• 

I ' • ' • I • ' ' ' I 

10 15 20 25 30 

Gas 

Diesel 

Age 
P.46 

M0BILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Class 8B VMT 

' ' • • • I • • • . I • • • • I • • ,__!_ 

os 

* 1 

•o 

a 

os 

W) 

3 

O 

n 

> 

IIHMIIIIIIIIII 

Gas 

Diesel 

1

 i 

25 30 

Age 
P.47 

a. 

OS 

< 

a. 

50 

40 -

3 0 -

2 0 -

10-

M0BILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

LDV City and Highway Fuel Economy 

J 1 1 i i L. i i i . 

i i i • I i 

1960 1970 

City Gas 

City Diesel 

Hwy Gas 

Hwy Diesel 

1980 1990 2000 

Model Year 

O 

a. 

.Q 

09 J 

< 

a. 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

LDT1-LDT2 City and Highway Fuel Economy 

MM* lit Ml Hill 

City Gas 

City Diesel 

Hwy Gas 

Hwy Diesel 

0 - I I i i | • i i i | • i i • | i i i • | i i i i | i i i i | i i i • | • i I I 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Model Year 
M0BILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Class 2B Fuel Economy 

P.48 

a. 

S 

.a 

99 J 

a. w 

Gas 

Diesel 

0 - i i i i i i i i i | i i i i | i i i i | • i i i | i i i • | i i i • | 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Year 

a. 

a. 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Classes 3-5 Fuel Economy 

5 0 l .•••'••• • i ... . i ... . i .. . . i ... . i . . . . i . . . . 

40-

30-

20-

10- -*£-

0 | i • i i i • i i i | • i i i | • i i i | i i i i | • i • • • • i • • • • 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Gas 

Diesel 

Model Year 
P.49 

O 

a. 

S 

A 

09 J 

< 

a. 

50 

4 0 -

30 -

2 0-

10-

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Class 6 Fuel Economy 

• • ••i... . i ...••. . . , i ••-•• - - i 

aiiaiiauaiMMiaiiaiiaiiaiiamiiiBtiaiiaiia it animal •< m 

lllllllllllllll l 

Gas 

Diesel 

0 ( i i i i | i i i i | i i i i | i i i i | i i i i | i i i i | i i i i | i i i 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Model Year 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Class 7 Fuel Economy 

50 

O 

a. 

"Z 

A 

OS J 

< 

a. 

u 

4 0 -

3 0-

2 0-

10-

• . • • i ... . i . .. . i .. . . i ... . i ... . i ... . i . . . 

•••HjaiaMManaiiaMai 

0 | • I ' • | I I I I | I I I I | I I I I | I I I I | I I I I | I I I I | I I I 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Gas 

Diesel 

Model Year 
P.50 

o 

a. 

S 

.a 

OS 

J 

< 

a. 

a 

MOBILE4 Fuei Consumption Model 

Class 8A Fuel Economy 

5 0 I * * ' • ' • • • • i • • . • i * • • • • • • . • i . . . . 

4 0 -

3 0 -

2 0 -

10-

•••Il IIIIIIIIUI HMIUIIIIIttMIMHra 

0 | • • • • | T I ' ' ' ' I I I I I I I I I 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Model Year 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Class 8B Fuel Economy 

Gas 

Diesel 

C5 

a . 

"3 

j a 

OS 

< 

a. 

a 

IIIIIHIIIIHIH 

Gas 

Diesel 

0 | • > i i | • i i • | i i • i | i i i i | i i i i | i i i i | i i i i | • i • • 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Model Year 
P.51 

O 

a. 

Si 

09 J 

< 

a. 

a 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Bus Fuel Economy 

50 

40 

30 

20 -i 

i » ' • l—•—i—•—i—I— i • • • ' -»•'• -

io H 

H IN HI UIIMMMMMM 

I I I I I I I I 

1975 1980 

I i i i i I i i i i I i 

1985 1990 1995 

School Gas 

School Diesel 

• Commercial Diesel 

2000 

Calendar Year 
P.52 

# 

a 

o 

100 

90-

80-

70-

60-

50-

4 0-

30 -

2 0-

10-

0 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

LDV Diesel Penetration 

• ••'••. . i .. . . i . . • • i • . . . i . .. . i ... . i . . 

i I M 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Model Year 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

LDT1-LDT2 Diesel Penetration 

[•ii— i | • i i i—r**r^""i—l | I I l I | I I I l | I l • I | I 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Model Year 
P.53 

M0BILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Class 2B Diesel Penetration 

c 

o 

V 

8 

w 

a. 

V 

VI 

•r*—i-i^P*-r*rT^*-r*^-w+ 1 | i 1 i i \ i i i » | i i • • , 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Model Year 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Classes 3-5 Diesel Penetration 

a 

L. 

0) 

B 

V 

a. 

V 

VI 

V 

I • • • • I • • • • I " • • • I • • • • I 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Model Year 
P.54 

M0BILE4 Fuel Consi mption Model 

Class 6 Diesel Penetration 

a 

jo 

09 

L. 

91 

a 

41 

a. 

• i I i i i i I i i i i l i i i • I i • i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Model Year 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Class 7 Diesel Penetration 

$ 

a 

M 

u 

w 

a 

• i i i I • i i i I i i i i I • i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Model Year 
P.55 

M0BILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Class 8A Diesel Penetration 

41 

8 

41 

a. 

91 

VI 

41 

I | I • I I | • I I I | I I I I | I I I I | I I I I | I • I I | I I I I 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Model Year 

MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Class 8B Diesel Penetration 

OS 

i_ 

41 

8 

41 

a. 

i i i i I i i i i I i i i i l i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i l i i i i 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 200 0 

Mode l Yea r 
M0BILE4 Fuel Consumption Model 

Bus Diesel Penetration 

P.56 

100 

9 0-

8 0 -

70 -

60 

5 0 -

4 0 -

30 -

2 0 -

10 -

0 

^^^" ~ School 

Commercial 

i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i 

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Calendar Year 
P.57 

Appendix C 

Model Input Prompts 
P.58 

Input Prompts 

The MOBILE4 Fuel Consumption model interactively asks for the following inputs 

pertaining to the scenario being run: 

Prompt: PLEASE ENTER THE SCENARIO DESCRIPTION 

Response: Enter an 80-character description of the scenario being run. 

Prompt: PLEASE ENTER THE START YEAR AS A 2-DIGIT NUMBER 

Response: Enter the beginning year of the run. Enter only the last two digits of the year. 

Thus, "10" will be interpreted as 2010. 

Any year between 1982 and 2020 may be entered. 

Prompt: PLEASE ENTER THE 2-DIGIT ENDING YEAR 

Response: Enter me ending year of the run. As before, enter only me last two digits of the 

year. 

Any year between 1982 and 2020 may be entered. However, the ending year 

must be equal to or greater than the starting year. 

Prompt: PLEASE ENTER THE INCREMENT YEAR FACTOR AS INTEGER VALUE 

Response: Enter the yearly increment. This value is the step size, in years, between the 

beginning and ending years. 

For example, if the increment is 1, then every year between the starting and 

ending year, inclusive, is output. If the increment is 5, then every fifth year is 

produced. 

Prompt: DO YOU WANT TO REPLACE THE LDV AND/OR LDT DIESELIZATION 

RATES? (1=YES, 2=NO) 

Response: The model is asking whether to override die MOBILE4 emissions model diesel 

penetration rates. 

If answered affirmatively, the model will produce the following prompts. 

Otherwise, it will skip to the VMT ADJUSTMENT prompt below. 

Prompt: PLEASE ENTER THE NEW LDV & CARLUCE LDTl DIESELIZATION RATE (.000-

.005) 

Response: Enter a constant, replacement diesel 

penetration rate for LDVs and car-like 

LDTls. The rate must lie in the range .00-

.05 (0-5%), inclusive. 

C-l 
P.59 

Prompt: PLEASE ENTER THE 2-DIGIT 

STARTING YEAR FOR THE NEW LDV & 

CAR-LIKE LDTl DIESELIZATION RATE 

(82+) 

Response: Input the year in which the new diesel 

penetration rate becomes effective. The rate 

will become effective that year and continue 

at a constant value thereafter. As before, enter 

only the last 2 digits of the year. 

The year must be no earlier than 1982. 

Prompt: PLEASE ENTER THE COMMERCIAL 

LDT1-LDT2 DIESELIZATION RATE (.000-

.150) 

Response: Enter the replacement diesel penetration rate 

for commercial LDTl and LDT2. The rate 

must lie in the range .00-.15 (0-15%), 

inclusive. 

Prompt: PLEASE ENTER THE 2-DIGIT 

STARTING YEAR FOR THE 

COMMERCIAL LDT1-LDT2 

DIESELIZATION RATE (82+) 

This input is analogous to that entered for 

LDV & car-like LDTl. 

Prompt: PLEASE SELECT THE VMT ADJUSTMENT METHOD 

1 - NO ADJUSTMENT 

2 - VMT/VEH GROWTH RATE 

Response: This prompt asks whether you want to increase the amount of miles vehicles 

travel per year. If answered affirmatively, the following prompts are displayed. 

Otherwise, the CHANGE SCENARIO prompt will appear next. 

Prompt: PLEASE ENTER THE LDV & CAR-LIKE 

LDTl VMT/VEH GROWTH RATE 

(%/YEAR) 

Response: Enter the VMT growth rate, in percent per 

year, for LDV and car-like LDTl. 

The rate can be any decimal value, positive or 

negative; (e.g., 1.0). 

C-2 
P.60 

Prompt: PLEASE ENTER THE TRUCK VMT/VEH 

GROWTH RATE (%/YEAR) 

Response: Enter the VMT growth rate, in percent per 

year, for all remaining trucks (commercial 

LDTl and heavier). 

The rate can be any decimal value, positive or 

negative; (e.g., 1.0). 

Prompt: PLEASE ENTER THE 2-DIGIT VMT 

ADJUSTMENT BASE YEAR 

Response: Enter the base year for the VMT per vehicle 

growth calculations is entered in the usual 

digit fashion. Any year from 1982 through 

2020 is allowed. 

Only those years after the base year are 

affected. 

Prompt: DO YOU WANT TO CHANGE SCENARIO PARAMETERS? (1=YES, 

2=NO) 

Response: If a mistake was made in entering the scenario input values, this prompt allows 

you to abort the run and re-enter the correct values. 

Prompt: DO YOU WANT TO RUN ANOTHER SCENARIO? (1=YES, 2=NO) 

Response: This prompt allows you to run multiple scenarios. If answered affirmatively, 

you will be returned to the SCENARIO DESCRIPTION prompt. Otherwise the 

run will end. 

C-3