From: Eckman, Tom [mailto:teckman@nwcouncil.org] 

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 6:54 PM 

To: 'Rosenstock, Steven'; Cymbalsky, John; Meyers, Aaron; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert 

Berman; Jerry Hodge; John Caskey 

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB); 

mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net; 

tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com; 

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com; 

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L; 

tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, Emily 

(CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; DYoung@energy-solution.com; 

rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific.com; 

carlos.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com; greg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrush@gmail.com; 

Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov; 

gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov; ScottB@LVMetals.com; dave.millure@metglas.com; 

kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; Brian Coffey; Caitlin Johnson; Matthew Nardotti; Michael 

Rivest; Zhimei Luo; Jim Creevy; mwaltner@nrdc.org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop; 

vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com; gbf1@pge.com; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; 

ahofmann@publicpower.org; pkumar@publicpower.org; adelaski@standardsASAP.org; 

jmauer@standardsasap.org; wes.patterson@us.abb.com; chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com; 

thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org 

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections 

Aaron/Steve R., et al:

As part of developing the last Pacific Northwest Power Plan, the Council analyzed the potential impact of

electric vehicles on PNW loads through 2030. We created three scenarios, ranging from a low market

share of 20% of cumulative new sales by 2030 to a high of 48% of cumulative new sales by 2030.  For

comparison, my review of the spreadsheet that John sent shows EV’s and PHEV’s comprising just over 4

% of all new vehicle sales between 2010 and 2030, so our “low” case scenario is five times as high as the

one assumed in the AEO.  Bottom line, is that under the Council’s low case scenario, PNW “off‐peak”  

loads would increase about 800 MW (4% above the base forecast)  while under the high case they would

increase by just under 2000 MW (10% above the base forecast).  Both scenarios assumed that 95% of

the charging would take place “off‐peak.”  Given this rather modest impact in off‐peak demand (In the

PNW peak loads are typically 1.8 times off‐peak loads) it would seem very unlikely that average

transformer loading will increase dramatically, especially given (as has been noted by Steve R. in prior e‐

mail) the impact of other federal appliance efficiency standards and the deployment of smart grid over

this same time frame.

I’ve attached  presentation staff made to the Council during the plan’s development that discusses the

assumptions and results of this analysis in more detail.   

Tom

Tom Eckman

Manager, Conservation Resources

Northwest Power and Conservation Council

851 SW 6th Avenue, Suite 1100

Portland, OR 97204

Office ‐ 503.222.5161
Mobile ‐ 503.803.5047

Fax ‐ 503.820.2370

  

From: Rosenstock, Steven [mailto:SRosenstock@eei.org] 

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 10:54 AM 

To: Cymbalsky, John; Meyers, Aaron; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; John 

Caskey 

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB); 

mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net; 

tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com; 

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com; 

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L; 

tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, Emily 

(CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; DYoung@energy-solution.com; 

rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific.com; 

carlos.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com; greg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrush@gmail.com; 

Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov; 

gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov; ScottB@LVMetals.com; dave.millure@metglas.com; 

kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; brian.coffey@navigant.com; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com; 

matthew.nardotti@navigant.com; mrivest@navigant.com; zhimei.luo@navigant.com; Jim Creevy; 

mwaltner@nrdc.org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop; Eckman, Tom; 

vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com; gbf1@pge.com; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; 

ahofmann@publicpower.org; pkumar@publicpower.org; adelaski@standardsASAP.org; 

jmauer@standardsasap.org; wes.patterson@us.abb.com; chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com; 

thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections 

As a point of reference, the spreadsheet that Mr. Cymbalsky sent out (thank you, John) showed 

estimated sales of 24,900 EV’s and PHEV’s in 2011. Based on the following articles: 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/02/us-tesla-idUSTRE7A18RJ20111102 

http://detnews.com/article/20111102/AUTO01/111020344/Chevy-Volt-sees-best-sales-yet--

Nissan-Leaf-still-ahead 

As of October 31, 2011, there have been 13,051 Leafs and Volts sold or leased in the US so far 

in 2011. I could not find specific numbers for the Tesla Roadster or conversions of gasoline 

vehicles to PHEV’s in 2011, so I will make a semi-educated guess that other vehicle sales would 

raise the number to about 13,500 EV’s and PHEV’s sold in 2011 as of 10/31/2011. 

Will the number rise to 24,900 by the end of this year? I will leave that to the forecasters..... :-) 

Steve Rosenstock 

Manager, Energy Solutions 

Edison Electric Institute 

srosenstock@eei.org

202-508-5465 
From: Cymbalsky, John [mailto:John.Cymbalsky@EE.Doe.Gov] 

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 12:20 PM 

To: 'Meyers, Aaron'; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; John Caskey 

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB); 

mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net; 

tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com; 

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com; 

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L; 

tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, 

Emily (CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; Rosenstock, Steven; 

DYoung@energy-solution.com; rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; 

rgreeson@federalpacific.com; carlos.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com; 

greg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrush@gmail.com; Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; 

Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov; 

ScottB@LVMetals.com; dave.millure@metglas.com; kwinder@mleainc.com; 

jrossetti@mlgw.org; brian.coffey@navigant.com; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com; 

matthew.nardotti@navigant.com; mrivest@navigant.com; zhimei.luo@navigant.com; Jim 

Creevy; mwaltner@nrdc.org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop; 

Teckman@nwcouncil.org; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com; gbf1@pge.com; 

chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; ahofmann@publicpower.org; pkumar@publicpower.org; 

adelaski@standardsASAP.org; jmauer@standardsasap.org; wes.patterson@us.abb.com; 

chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com; 

charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections 

Aaron et al: 

Attached is the official USG projections for LDV sales from EIA, the independent statistical 

agency of the USG from which our electricity projections are based. 

John 

From: Meyers, Aaron [mailto:Aaron.Meyers@CooperIndustries.com] 

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 12:09 PM 

To: Steve Nadel; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; John Caskey 

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB); 

mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net; 

tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com; 

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com; 

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L; 

tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, 

Emily (CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; Cymbalsky, John; 

srosenstock@eei.org; DYoung@energy-solution.com; rick.anderson@faypwc.com; 
bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific.com; carlos.gaytan@ge.com; 

artrosenfeld@gmail.com; greg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrush@gmail.com; Richard 

Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov; 

gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov; ScottB@LVMetals.com; dave.millure@metglas.com; 

kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; brian.coffey@navigant.com; 

caitlin.johnson@navigant.com; matthew.nardotti@navigant.com; mrivest@navigant.com; 

zhimei.luo@navigant.com; Jim Creevy; mwaltner@nrdc.org; rroy@nrdc.org; 

robert.saint@nreca.coop; Teckman@nwcouncil.org; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com; 

gbf1@pge.com; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; ahofmann@publicpower.org; 

pkumar@publicpower.org; adelaski@standardsASAP.org; jmauer@standardsasap.org; 

wes.patterson@us.abb.com; chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com; 

thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org

Subject: Electric Vehicle Projections 

Dear Distribution Transformer Efficiency Subcommittee, et al, 

The following link is to an article published by the NEMA Intelligence Portal and provides some 

insight into the projected impact of electric vehicles: 

http://portal.nema.org/Pages/document.aspx?docId=3156&LoadSource=LexisNexis&utm_mediu

m=email&utm_campaign=digest_2011-11-

17&utm_source=aaron.meyers@cooperindustries.com

Most interestingly, by 2025, one in seven new cars is projected to be a zero-emission or plug-in 

hybrid vehicle, and 1.4 million are projected to be on the road in California alone by 2025. I 

don’t see how we can ignore the impact of this significant change. Meeting the charging needs 

will dramatically change the loading assumptions in the current analysis. As someone pointed 

out at the October meeting, the reference loading level (50%) is part of the testing standard and is 

not on the table for negotiating purposes, so this is just another non-trivial factor that must be 

considered outside of the existing analysis results. 

Keep in mind that for two transformers having the same efficiency at 50% load, the amorphous 

one will be more efficient at low loading levels whereas the grain-oriented one will be more 

efficient at higher loading levels. Looking at Cooper’s data, the ratio of no-load to load losses at 

100% load on a typical DOE compliant grain-oriented transformer today is 6:1, and on a Cooper 

amorphous unit it’s about 10:1. To make an analogy, if no-load losses were a slice of pie, the 

load losses would be the rest of the entire pie! Load losses are a huge lever and cannot be tossed 

aside as if merely a nuisance! Most of the discussion thus far has been squarely focused on noload losses. We need to make sure we aren’t spending four dollars to save fifty cents. 

Best Regards, 

Aaron