What do the Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) spreadsheets do?The LCC spreadsheets perform calculations to determine life-cycle cost and payback periods. The LCC spreadsheets operate in Excel 97 or Excel 7 (Windows 95). The Excel add-on Crystal Ball (version 4.0) allows the user to perform uncertainty analysis onkey input variables.What are the Worksheets in the Workbook?Each LCC spreadsheet or workbook consists of the following worksheets:LCC (Sample Calc)contains the input selections and a summary table of energy use, operating costs, LCC and Payback.LCC (Simulations)contains the input selections as in the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet. If Crystal Ball is running, the energy, cost, LCC, and payback data are from the current sample. If Crystal Ball has finished running, the data are from the final sample.Engineeringcontains the manufacturer costs submitted by ARI for split systems and single package systems at each efficiency level. Also included are the manufacturer, distributor, and dealer markups, the sales tax, the installation price, and the repair and maintenance costs.RECS HH Datafor each sample household, contains average and marginal electricity prices, annual space-cooling energy consumption (and space-heating energy consumption for heat pumps), the geographic location, the year the household was built, and the equipment’s ageindex.COMM Datafor each sample building, contains average and marginal electricity prices, and annual space-cooling energy consumption (and space-heating energy consumption for heat pumps).Energy Pricecontains projections of future energy prices from various sources.SEER Distcontains historical shipment-weighted efficiency data by year; this is used for determining the probable SEER of existing space-conditioning equipment based on age.HSPF Distcontains historical shipment-weighted efficiency data by year; this is used for determining the probable HSPF of existing heatpump based on age. (This worksheet is included only in the LCC spreadsheet for heat pumps (lcc_shp.xls)).Seasonal Allocation Factorscontains seasonal (i.e., summer and non-summer) allocation factors of annual cooling (or heating) energy which indicate the fraction used by season. The seasonal allocation factors are based on the age and the geographic location of the household. Thefactorsare used for determining the annual marginal electricity rate. Summer and non-summer allocation factors are multiplied by summer and non-summer marginal rates, respectively, and then summed to arrive at the annual marginal rate.drate distcontains data from which an average discount rate and a distribution of discount rates are determined.Lifetimecontains the survival function for central air conditioners and heat pumps and the average central air conditioner and heat pump lifetime in years.Setupthis is used as an interface between user inputs and the rest of the worksheets -- do not modify this sheet.How does the user operate the spreadsheet?To execute the spreadsheets fully you will need both Microsoft Excel and Crystal Ball software. Both applications are commercially available. Crystal ball is available at http://www.decisioneering.com.1) Once you have downloaded the LCC file from the Web, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for sheet LCC(Sample Calc) or LCC (Simulations).2) Use Excel’s commands at the top View/Zoom to change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor.3) The user interacts with the spreadsheet by clicking choices or entering data using the graphical interface that comes with the spreadsheet. Choices can be selected from the box labeled List Inputs on either of two worksheets:a) LCC (Sample Calc) or,b) LCC (Simulations).A change in either input sheet also changes the other. In the box titled List Inputs select choices from the selection boxesfor the following: (1) energy price projection, (2) start year, (3) base case design, (4) standard case design, (5) manufacturer cost data, and(6) system type (split or single package). A new discount rate or lifetime can also be entered if a value other than the default value or default distribution is wanted, however, this would change the code and we do not recommend saving the spreadsheetafter thecode is changed.a) energy price projection,b) start year,c) base case design,d) standard case design,e) system type (split or single package) (this choice appears just outside of the List Inputs box),f) price multipler (either ARI Mean manufacuturer cost multipliers or Reverse Engineering manufacturer cost multipliers),g) markups (gives the user the option to input their own manufacturer, distributor, dealer, and builder markups and sales tax),h) price multiplier (gives the user the option to input their own manufacturer cost multiplier), andA new discount rate or lifetime can also be entered if a value other than the default value or default distribution is wanted,however, this would change the code and we do not recommend saving the spreadsheet after the code is changed.4) To change assumptions on List Inputs click on the assumption you wish to change, click on the new assumption from the menu.5) This spreadsheet gives the user two methods of running the spreadsheet.a) If the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet is chosen, then all calculations are performed for single input values, usually an average. The new results are shown on the same sheet as soon as the new values are entered.b) Alternately, if the LCC (Simulations) sheet is used, the spreadsheet generates results that are distributions. Some of the inputs are also distributions. The results from the LCC distribution are shown as single values and refer only to the results from thelast Monte Carlo sample and are therefore not meaningful. To run the distribution version of the spreadsheet the Excel add-insoftware called Crystal Ball must be enabled.What is the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet used for?LCC difference and Payback as provided in the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet are based on single-point values. This page can be usedto see the effect of changing a single parameter.How does the user run the Crystal Ball simulation? (LCC Simulations sheet)To produce sensitivity results using Crystal Ball, you need simply select Run from the Run menu (on the menu bar). To make basic changes in the run sequence, including altering the number of trials, select Run Preferences from the Run menu. After eachsimulation run, theuser needs to select Reset (also from the Run menu) before Run can be selected again. Once Crystal Ball has completed its run sequence it will produce a series of distributions. Using the menu bars on the distribution results it is possible to obtain further statistical information. The timetaken to complete a run sequence can be reduced by minimizing the Crystal Ball window in Excel.A step by step summary of the procedure, for running a distribution analysis, is outlined below:1) Find the Crystal Ball toolbar (at top of screen)2) Click on RUN3) Select Preference and choose from the following choices:a) Monte Carlob) Latin Hypercube (recommended)c) Initial seed choices and whether you want it to be constant between runsd) Select number of Monte Carlo Trials (we suggest 10,000).4) To run the simulation, follow the following sequence (on the Crystal Ball toolbar)RUNRESETRUN5) Now wait until the program informs you that the simulation is completed.What kind of output does Crystal Ball generate?1) After the simulation has finished, to see the distribution charts generated, click on the Windows tab bar that is labeled Crystal Ball.2) The life-cycle cost savings and payback periods are defined as Forecast cells. The frequency charts display the results of the simulations, or trials, performed by Crystal Ball. Click on any chart to bring it into view. The charts show the low and high endpointsof the forecasts. The View selection on the Crystal Ball toolbar can be used to specify whether you want cumulative or frequency plots shown.3) To calculate the probability of that LCC savings will occur, either type 0 in the box by the right arrow, or move the arrow key with the cursor to 0 on the scale. The value in the Certainty box shows the likelihood that the LCC savings will occur. Tocalculate thecertainty of payback period being below a certain number of years, choose that value as the high endpoint.4) To generate a printout report, select Create Report from the Run menu. The toolbar choice of Forecast Windows allows you toselect the charts and statistics you are interested in. For further information on Crystal Ball outputs, please refer to Understandingthe Forecast Chart in the Crystal Ball manual.LIFE CYCLE COST OF PACKAGED SYSTEM HEAT PUMPS - SAMPLE CALCULATION (AVG VALUES), January 2001Dollar Values in 1998 $Elec Price(cent/kWh)Annual Cash Flow Cumulative Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow Disc.LIST INPUTSAge Year Average MarginalBase Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff.FactorELECTRICITY PRICE(cent/kWh)AverageMarginal1997 7.45 6.98ENERGY PRICE PROJECTION START YEAR Year of Purchase20066.92 6.49$3,599 $4,035$436$3,599 $4,035$436$3,599 $4,035$436Year Equip. Retires 2023 6.73 6.321 2006 6.92 6.49 $529 $460 -$69 $4,128 $4,494 $367 $4,100 $4,470 $370 0.952 2007 6.92 6.49 $529 $460 -$69 $4,657 $4,954 $298 $4,574 $4,882 $308 0.90BASE CASE DESIGN PRICE OPTION3 2008 6.90 6.47 $527 $459 -$69 $5,184 $5,413 $229 $5,022 $5,272 $250 0.85SEER 10CHANGESEER 134 2009 6.82 6.39 $522 $454 -$68 $5,706 $5,867 $161 $5,442 $5,637 $195 0.805 2010 6.84 6.42 $524 $455 -$68 $6,230 $6,322 $93 $5,841 $5,984 $143 0.76STANDARD CASE DESIGN Total Installed Price $3,599 $43612%$4,0356 2011 6.78 6.36 $520 $452 -$68 $6,749 $6,774 $25 $6,215 $6,310 $95 0.72Annual Repair & Maint. $76 $12%$777 2012 6.75 6.33 $518 $451 -$67 $7,267 $7,225 -$42 $6,569 $6,618 $49 0.68Compressor Cost $283 $8229%$3648 2013 6.74 6.33 $517 $450 -$67 $7,784 $7,675 -$109 $6,904 $6,909 $5 0.65LIFETIME (years) 18.49 2014 6.77 6.35 $519 $452 -$67 $8,303 $8,127 -$177 $7,222 $7,186 -$36 0.61DISCOUNT RATE 5.6% Annual kWh Use (Cool & Heat) 6549 -1,081-17%546810 2015 6.79 6.37 $520 $452 -$68 $8,823 $8,579 -$244 $7,523 $7,448 -$75 0.58Cooling 2769 -639-23%213011 2016 6.77 6.35 $519 $451 -$67 $9,342 $9,030 -$312 $7,808 $7,696 -$112 0.55ELECTRICITY PRICE IN 1998(cent/kWh)Heating 3780 -442-12%3339 Payback12 2017 6.77 6.35 $519 $451 -$67 $9,861 $9,482 -$379 $8,078 $7,931 -$147 0.52Average 7.45 Annual Operating Cost (years)13 2018 6.77 6.35 $519 $452 -$67 $10,380 $9,933 -$447 $8,334 $8,153 -$181 0.49Marginal 6.982006$529 -$69-13%$460 6.314 2019 6.75 6.33 $800 $814 $14 $11,180 $10,748 -$432 $8,708 $8,534 -$174 0.4715 2020 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $11,697 $11,197 -$499 $8,936 $8,732 -$204 0.44RECS AVERAGE UEC(kWh)Cumulative Cash Flow $13,458 -$728-5%$12,73016 2021 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $12,213 $11,647 -$566 $9,152 $8,920 -$232 0.42COOLING 2950 Life-Cycle Cost ($) $9,626 -$293-3%$9,33217 2022 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $12,730 $12,096 -$634 $9,357 $9,098 -$258 0.40HEATING 379418 2023 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $13,246 $12,546 -$701 $9,550 $9,267 -$283 0.38RECS AVERAGE SEER 9.3919 2024 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $13,763 $12,995 -$768 $9,734 $9,427 -$307 0.36RECS AVERAGE HSPF 6.7820 2025 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $14,280 $13,445 -$835 $9,908 $9,578 -$330 0.3421 2026 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $14,796 $13,894 -$902 $10,073 $9,721 -$351 0.3222 2027 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $15,313 $14,344 -$969 $10,228 $9,857 -$371 0.3023 2028 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $15,829 $14,793 -$1,036 $10,376 $9,985 -$391 0.2924 2029 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $16,346 $15,243 -$1,103 $10,516 $10,107 -$409 0.2725 2030 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $16,862 $15,692 -$1,170 $10,648 $10,222 -$426 0.26AEO 2000 - Reference Case2006Baseline (SEER=10)30% Impr. (SEER=13)Fuel PriceComparionShow PlotShow InputsPriceMultiplierMark Up'sPackaged SystemRev EngrLIFE CYCLE COST OF PACKAGED SYSTEM HEAT PUMPS - SAMPLE CALCULATION (AVG VALUES), January 2001Dollar Values in 1998 $Elec Price(cent/kWh)Annual Cash Flow Cumulative Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow Disc.LIST INPUTSAge Year Average MarginalBase Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff.FactorELECTRICITY PRICE(cent/kWh)AverageMarginal1998 10.49 11.24ENERGY PRICE PROJECTION START YEAR Year of Purchase20069.75 10.45$3,599 $4,035$436$3,599 $4,035$436$3,599 $4,035$436Year Equip. Retires 2023 9.49 10.171 2006 9.75 10.45 $831 $730 -$100 $4,430 $4,765 $335 $4,397 $4,736 $339 0.962 2007 9.76 10.45 $831 $730 -$101 $5,260 $5,495 $234 $5,162 $5,409 $246 0.92BASE CASE DESIGN PRICE OPTION3 2008 9.72 10.41 $828 $728 -$100 $6,089 $6,223 $134 $5,895 $6,053 $158 0.88SEER 10CHANGESEER 134 2009 9.61 10.29 $819 $720 -$99 $6,908 $6,943 $35 $6,591 $6,665 $74 0.855 2010 9.64 10.33 $822 $723 -$99 $7,730 $7,666 -$64 $7,262 $7,254 -$7 0.82STANDARD CASE DESIGN Total Installed Price $3,599 $43612%$4,0356 2011 9.56 10.23 $815 $717 -$98 $8,545 $8,383 -$162 $7,900 $7,815 -$84 0.78Annual Repair & Maint. $76 $12%$777 2012 9.52 10.19 $812 $714 -$98 $9,358 $9,097 -$260 $8,510 $8,352 -$158 0.75Compressor Cost $283 $8229%$3648 2013 9.51 10.18 $811 $714 -$98 $10,169 $9,811 -$358 $9,096 $8,867 -$229 0.729 2014 9.54 10.22 $814 $716 -$98 $10,984 $10,527 -$457 $9,660 $9,363 -$297 0.69Annual kWh Use (Cool & Heat) 7742 -973-13%676810 2015 9.56 10.24 $816 $717 -$99 $11,800 $11,244 -$555 $10,203 $9,841 -$362 0.67LIFETIME (years) 18.4 Cooling 602 -139-23%46311 2016 9.54 10.22 $814 $716 -$98 $12,614 $11,960 -$654 $10,723 $10,298 -$425 0.64DISCOUNT RATE 4.2%% SHIPMENTHeating 7140 -835-12%6305 Payback12 2017 9.54 10.22 $814 $716 -$98 $13,428 $12,676 -$752 $11,222 $10,737 -$485 0.61Comm.10%Annual Operating Cost (years)13 2018 9.55 10.23 $815 $716 -$98 $14,242 $13,392 -$850 $11,701 $11,158 -$543 0.59HOUSEHOLD ELEC PRICE IN 1998 Resd.90%2006$831 -$100-12%$730 4.314 2019 9.51 10.19 $1,094 $1,078 -$16 $15,337 $14,470 -$866 $12,320 $11,767 -$553 0.57(cent/kWh)Average 10.4915 2020 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $16,147 $15,183 -$964 $12,759 $12,154 -$606 0.54Marginal 11.24 Cumulative Cash Flow $18,909 -$1,298-7%$17,61216 2021 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $16,957 $15,895 -$1,062 $13,181 $12,525 -$656 0.52Life-Cycle Cost ($) $14,128 -$771-5%$13,35717 2022 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $17,768 $16,608 -$1,160 $13,586 $12,881 -$705 0.50RECS AVERAGE UEC(kWh)18 2023 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $18,578 $17,321 -$1,258 $13,975 $13,223 -$752 0.48COOLING 73519 2024 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $19,388 $18,033 -$1,355 $14,349 $13,551 -$797 0.46HEATING 773520 2025 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $20,199 $18,746 -$1,453 $14,707 $13,867 -$841 0.44RECS AVERAGE SEER 8.221 2026 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $21,009 $19,458 -$1,551 $15,051 $14,169 -$882 0.42RECS AVERAGE HSPF 6.322 2027 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $21,819 $20,171 -$1,649 $15,382 $14,460 -$922 0.4123 2028 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $22,629 $20,883 -$1,746 $15,699 $14,739 -$960 0.3924 2029 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $23,440 $21,596 -$1,844 $16,003 $15,006 -$997 0.3825 2030 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $24,250 $22,308 -$1,942 $16,296 $15,263 -$1,032 0.36AEO 2000 - Reference Case2006Baseline (SEER=10)20% Impr. (SEER=12)Fuel PriceComparionShow PlotShow InputsUpdatePriceMultiplierMark Up'sSplit SystemRev EngrPACKAGED SYSTEM HEAT PUMPS: COST AND EFFICIENCY DATATotalTotal% OverManufacturer's Cost Multiplier Manuf. Equip. Install. Installed Annual Annual Compr. Compr.Level Description Baseline ARI mean Reverse Engr Cost Price Price Price Repair Maint. SEER HPSF Mfg. Cost PriceSEER Split Packaged Split Packaged(1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (Btu/Whr) (Btu/Whr) (1998$) (1998$)0 Baseline (SEER=10) 0% 100% 100% 100% 100%$593 $1,439$2,160 $3,599 $39 $36 10 6.8 $124 $2831 10% Impr. (SEER=11) 10% 110% 114% 105% 108%$640 $1,531$2,160 $3,691 $39 $36 11 7.1 $153 $3352 20% Impr. (SEER=12) 20% 124% 128% 113% 113%$670 $1,588$2,160 $3,748 $40 $36 12 7.4 $153 $3353 30% Impr. (SEER=13) 30% 144% 160% 130% 138%$818 $1,875$2,160 $4,035 $40 $36 13 7.7 $169 $3644 40% Impr. (SEER=14) 40% 164% 175% 179% 174%$1,032 $2,287$2,160 $4,447 $62 $36 14 8.0 $225 $4665 50% Impr. (SEER=15) 50% 209% 213% 194% 186%$1,103 $2,425$2,160 $4,585 $66 $36 15 8.2 $279 $5646 80% Impr. (SEER=18) 80% 209% 213% 194% 186%$1,103 $2,425$2,160 $4,585 $66 $36 18 8.8 $279 $564Split PackagedBaseline Mfg Cost $572 $593Installation Price $2,280 $2,160Marginal MarkupsDistributior Markup Dealer MarkupNew Retrofit Wt.Avg / BaselineCumulative Cumulative34% 66%Sampled MarkupMarkup Probability Markup ProbabilityManufacturer Markup 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.231.027 1% 1.050 1%Distributor Markup 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.371.056 10% 1.150 10%Dealer Markup 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.271.069 20% 1.190 20%Builder Markup 1.26 1.00 1.09 1.091.077 30% 1.219 30%Sales Tax Distribution for Retrofit1.084 40% 1.244 40%Sales Tax 1.00 1.07 1.04 1.0410% 30% 38% 22%1.091 50% 1.267 50%1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.098 60% 1.290 60%Service Cost $361.105 70% 1.314 70%1.114 80% 1.343 80%New/Retrofit Group1 1=New, 2=Retrofit1.126 90% 1.384 90%1.155 99% 1.483 99%RECS HH DataHOUSEHOLD DATA FROM 1993 RECSHouse ID Sampled1 Age Distribution from Age IndexAdjustedRECS97 CDD CDD AdjustedRECS97 HDD HDD 93 Avg 93 Marginal RateLarge YearAge Avg. Age House ID WeightCoolUEC CoolUEC 65 65-30 HeatUEC HeatUEC 65 65-30 Elec Rate Summer WinterDivisionState MadeIndexAge Dist.(Mbtu/yr) (Mbtu/yr) (cent/kWh) (in 93$/kWh)HOUSE ID 1 1 1 11 17450 2508 2547 1307 1287 1599 664 839 2020 10.7 $0.135 $0.110 9 2 7HOUSEHOLD INFORMATION 2 3 32 15570 10952 7042 1005 1563 11898 16221 4679 3432 7.1 $0.104 $0.050 5 0 7Equip Age Index 4 3 7 73 43862 14135 10398 1625 2209 5492 7810 3919 2756 5.7 $0.063 $0.038 7 0 7Equip. Age 14 4 14 144 10872 5426 6210 1789 1563 8389 5583 2284 3432 8.0 $0.087 $0.069 5 0 55 20 205 20705 10187 7793 2432 3179 2716 2821 998 961 7.7 $0.072 $0.069 5 4 8SEER 8.18 96 10 106 25482 5747 4545 1236 1563 20960 21094 3454 3432 7.8 $0.124 $0.057 5 0 8HSPF 6.28 7 10 107 20385 10497 7260 1081 1563 25885 32552 4316 3432 5.4 $0.046 $0.049 5 0 3Cooling UEC 735kWh/yr8 10 108 16564 17474 21619 3933 3179 6885 2042 285 961 8.4 $0.095 $0.092 5 4 12Heating UEC 469kWh/yr99 10 109 18657 1106 1231 1740 1563 2671 1849 2376 3432 8.3 $0.089 $0.062 5 0 510 31141 4453 2963 1040 1563 18357 21839 4083 3432 7.9 $0.064 $0.060 5 0 8Avg. Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 10.70cents/kWh11 19411 17609 19758 3567 3179 6677 2279 328 961 8.7 $0.057 $0.091 5 4 6Marg. Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 11.46cents/kWh12 29242 12127 15102 2751 2209 17310 9974 1588 2756 8.0 $0.081 $0.064 7 0 713 23687 13858 12659 2904 3179 3916 3390 832 961 7.7 $0.070 $0.080 5 4 7Avg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 10.49cents/kWhConversion from 1997$ to 1998$0.9814 18950 13542 17504 4109 3179 6734 1892 270 961 8.4 $0.064 $0.080 5 4 7Marg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 11.24cents/kWh15 16482 2676 2651 1275 1287 2546 3495 2773 2020 11.9 $0.131 $0.121 9 2 7Wt.Avg. Average Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 7.5316 10872 8736 9630 1723 1563 22729 15941 2407 3432 7.7 $0.089 $0.069 5 0 4RECS House ID1008Wt.Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 6.9917 12105 8100 5015 1107 1788 13385 17630 4365 3314 5.4 $0.048 $0.051 6 0 7RECS Weight17450Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 7.3918 11717 16106 4059 654 2595 25104 53717 6950 3248 6.6 $0.066 $0.063 8 0 5RECS Cooling UEC2508Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 6.8619 13754 3444 7015 660 324 45574 57354 6042 4801 4.2 $0.040 $0.041 9 0 7RECS Heating UEC159920 28539 8352 8780 1643 1563 20081 14961 2557 3432 7.8 $0.090 $0.069 5 0 41997 RECS21 10544 12483 14427 3674 3179 4877 1974 389 961 8.1 $0.077 $0.074 5 4 9HH Average Cooling UEC 2630kWh/yr22 72469 19403 21796 3571 3179 9954 3439 332 961 7.6 $0.082 $0.078 5 4 8HH Average Heating UEC 3921kWh/yr23 17813 3560 2412 1059 1563 11115 14853 4586 3432 7.2 $0.103 $0.053 5 0 7HH Avg Cooling SEER 9.3224 17652 3687 3282 1029 1156 15648 13731 5273 6009 7.5 $0.064 $0.066 4 0 4HH Avg Cooling HSPF 6.7725 5918 8319 5532 1189 1788 12223 14395 3903 3314 5.7 $0.054 $0.056 6 0 726 18907 1093 1992 2346 1287 1323 376 574 2020 10.4 $0.104 $0.103 9 2 1127 22822 4772 5197 3462 3179 1381 493 343 961 11.0 $0.092 $0.081 5 4 7Page 1

# COMMERCIAL BUILDING DATA

98 Mar g

Buildin g ID Sam p led 1 Coolin g Heatin g 98 Av g Coolin g

Buildin g I D Wei g ht UEC UEC ElecRate ElecRate SEE R HSPF

(1000Btu) cent/kWh

Building ID 1 1 0.4% 3814 7735 7.89 7.97 10.0 6.8

BUILDING INFORMATION 2 0.8% 2782 3325 7.84 8.45 10.0 6.8

SEER 10.00 3 0.1% 5488 5658 7.95 7.85 10.0 6.8

HSPF 6.80 4 0.3% 4356 6208 7.94 7.97 10.0 6.8

UEC (Cooling) 3814 kWh/yr 

# 5 1.0% 4026 2434 8.01 8.13 10.0 6.8

UEC (Heatin g ) 7735 kWh/yr 

# 6 1.5% 4461 2008 7.90 7.96 10.0 6.8

7 0.5% 3653 3625 8.03 8.04 10.0 6.8

Avg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 7.89 cents/kWh 

# 8 1.0% 3814 7775 7.89 7.97 10.0 6.8

Marg. Cooling Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 7.97 cents/kWh 

# 9 1.8% 2782 3462 7.84 8.45 10.0 6.8

10 0.2% 5488 5658 7.95 7.85 10.0 6.8

11 0.3% 4356 6208 7.94 7.97 10.0 6.8

12 3.0% 4026 2748 8.01 8.13 10.0 6.8

Wt. Avg. SEER 10.0 13 3.7% 4461 2439 7.90 7.96 10.0 6.8

Wt. Avg. HSPF 6.8 14 1.8% 3653 3618 8.03 8.04 10.0 6.8

Wt. Avg. Cooling UEC (kWh/yr) 5,824 15 1.3% 3541 8333 7.90 8.02 10.0 6.8

Wt. Avg. Heating UEC (kWh/yr) 2,654 16 2.0% 2435 3930 7.92 8.28 10.0 6.8

Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price (cent/kWh in 98$) 7.9 17 0.9% 5119 6419 7.95 7.89 10.0 6.8

Wt. Av g . Mar g inal Coolin g Elec Price (cent/kWh in 9 8 8.1 18 1.0% 3982 6862 7.95 8.01 10.0 6.8

19 3.0% 3747 3182 8.01 8.11 10.0 6.8

20 3.8% 4129 2668 7.91 8.00 10.0 6.8

21 2.9% 3336 4304 8.03 8.04 10.0 6.8

22 0.8% 3673 8210 7.97 8.10 10.0 6.8

23 1.1% 2552 3776 7.92 8.56 10.0 6.8

24 0.1% 5196 6145 7.95 7.88 10.0 6.8

25 0.4% 4091 6888 7.95 8.02 10.0 6.8

26 1.5% 3805 3467 8.01 8.12 10.0 6.8

27 2.3% 4058 3094 7.91 7.94 10.0 6.8

28 0.6% 3497 4715 8.03 8.03 10.0 6.8

29 1.6% 8202 4662 7.88 8.06 10.0 6.8

30 2.4% 5470 2012 7.88 8.48 10.0 6.8

31 0.6% 10514 3331 7.92 7.81 10.0 6.8

32 1.4% 8984 2716 7.91 7.95 10.0 6.8

33 4.5% 7499 1178 7.99 8.05 10.0 6.8

34 5.5% 8497 699 7.88 7.91 10.0 6.8

35 2.5% 6458 2088 8.02 8.02 10.0 6.8

36 1.1% 6862 5512 7.89 8.14 10.0 6.8

37 0.8% 4610 2371 7.90 8.60 10.0 6.8

38 0.3% 9116 3870 7.93 7.84 10.0 6.8

39 0.7% 7575 3419 7.92 8.03 10.0 6.8

40 1.2% 6521 1390 8.00 8.08 10.0 6.8

41 3.1% 7437 1125 7.89 7.94 10.0 6.8

42 1.5% 5690 1257 8.02 8.02 10.0 6.8

43 1.3% 8054 4498 7.89 8.23 10.0 6.8

44 2.3% 5379 1827 7.90 8.89 10.0 6.8

45 0.5% 10343 3300 7.92 7.88 10.0 6.8

46 0.5% 8896 2428 7.91 8.05 10.0 6.8

47 2.2% 7395 985 7.99 8.11 10.0 6.8

48 3.5% 8426 526 7.89 7.95 10.0 6.8

49 1.3% 6262 676 8.02 8.04 10.0 6.8

50 0.7% 4294 7488 7.97 8.12 10.0 6.8

51 0.2% 2985 3323 8.09 8.36 10.0 6.8

52 0.1% 6355 5225 7.95 7.86 10.0 6.8

53 0.3% 5163 5445 7.95 8.01 10.0 6.8

54 1.6% 4850 1977 8.02 8.19 10.0 6.8

55 0.9% 5107 1994 7.98 8.02 10.0 6.8

56 0.2% 4665 2461 8.03 8.05 10.0 6.8

57 0.8% 10262 3934 7.84 7.92 10.0 6.8

58 0.4% 7203 1311 7.81 8.15 10.0 6.8

59 0.1% 12571 2943 7.89 7.72 10.0 6.8

60 0.3% 11656 1421 7.88 7.84 10.0 6.8

61 0.8% 9368 724 7.96 7.95 10.0 6.8

62 0.6% 10452 140 7.86 7.83 10.0 6.8

63 0.5% 9140 131 7.92 7.92 10.0 6.8

64 0.2% 3035 9633 7.98 8.13 10.0 6.8

65 0.1% 2067 4360 8.10 8.41 10.0 6.8

66 0.1% 5379 6476 7.96 7.86 10.0 6.8

67 0.1% 3545 7060 7.96 8.09 10.0 6.8

68 0.8% 3934 2543 8.02 8.11 10.0 6.8

69 0.6% 4586 2516 7.99 8.11 10.0 6.8

70 0.1% 4297 3782 8.03 8.04 10.0 6.8

71 1.9% 6192 5368 7.97 8.21 10.0 6.8

72 1.5% 4233 2154 8.09 8.49 10.0 6.8

73 0.4% 10083 3184 7.93 7.80 10.0 6.8

74 0.7% 7384 2125 7.92 7.95 10.0 6.8

75 3.4% 6973 872 7.99 8.02 10.0 6.8

76 3.2% 8426 381 7.89 7.89 10.0 6.8

77 2.2% 5010 75 8.03 8.05 10.0 6.8ELECTRICITY PRICE PROJECTIONSLIST OF PROJECTIONS : -1 Constant 19992 AEO 2000 - Reference Case3 GRI 19984 AEO 2000 - High Growth Case5 AEO 2000 - Low GrowthElectricity Price Projections Electricity Price TrendsConst. AEO2000 GRI 98 High Low Const. AEO2000 GRI 98 High Lowcents / kWh (in 1998 dollar)1995 8.82 8.82 8.82 8.82 8.821996 8.63 8.63 8.63 8.63 8.631997 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.38 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.001998 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.961999 7.92 7.92 7.92 7.92 7.92 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.952000 7.92 7.86 8.50 7.98 7.85 0.95 0.94 1.01 0.95 0.942001 7.92 7.74 8.38 7.83 7.71 0.95 0.92 1.00 0.93 0.922002 7.92 7.63 8.27 7.77 7.56 0.95 0.91 0.99 0.93 0.902003 7.92 7.59 8.15 7.77 7.52 0.95 0.91 0.97 0.93 0.902004 7.92 7.56 8.03 7.78 7.46 0.95 0.90 0.96 0.93 0.892005 7.92 7.47 7.92 7.72 7.37 0.95 0.89 0.94 0.92 0.882006 7.92 7.48 7.82 7.76 7.32 0.95 0.89 0.93 0.93 0.872007 7.92 7.48 7.73 7.76 7.29 0.95 0.89 0.92 0.93 0.872008 7.92 7.46 7.64 7.71 7.22 0.95 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.862009 7.92 7.37 7.54 7.66 7.15 0.95 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.852010 7.92 7.39 7.45 7.71 7.13 0.95 0.88 0.89 0.92 0.852011 7.92 7.33 7.39 7.63 7.07 0.95 0.87 0.88 0.91 0.842012 7.92 7.30 7.32 7.62 7.03 0.95 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.842013 7.92 7.29 7.26 7.60 7.00 0.95 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.842014 7.92 7.32 7.20 7.61 7.01 0.95 0.87 0.86 0.91 0.842015 7.92 7.33 7.14 7.63 7.02 0.95 0.88 0.85 0.91 0.842016 7.92 7.32 7.14 7.62 7.01 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.842017 7.92 7.32 7.14 7.60 7.00 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.842018 7.92 7.32 7.14 7.63 7.02 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.842019 7.92 7.29 7.14 7.59 7.01 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.842020 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832021 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832022 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832023 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832024 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832025 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832026 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832027 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832028 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832029 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832030 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832021-2030 Electricity price are kept constant after 2020 for AEO 2000 Reference, High Growth and Low Growth Cases2016-2030Electricity price are kept constant after 2015 for GRI 1998Heat Pumps (Cooling)Percentage Distribution by Efficiency (SEER) for Heat Pumps in 1993AGE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 249.70.7%9.70.7%9.70.7%9.70.7%9.71.7%9.79.1%7.30.0%7.31.3%7.30.3%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%10.259.4%10.259.4%10.259.4%10.259.4%10.261.1%10.266.5%7.70.0%7.70.0%7.70.6%5.70.0%5.70.0%5.70.0%5.70.0%5.70.0%5.70.1%5.70.1%5.70.1%60.7%61.4%66.0%620.9%622.9%622.9%622.9%622.9%10.73.2%10.73.2%10.73.2%10.73.2%10.74.4%10.72.7%8.210.4%8.211.9%8.214.4%6.20.0%6.20.0%6.20.0%6.20.0%6.20.1%6.20.1%6.20.4%6.20.4%744.8%759.0%758.9%764.4%766.5%766.5%766.5%766.5%11.211.6%11.211.6%11.211.6%11.211.6%11.212.8%11.28.5%8.75.6%8.78.6%8.710.3%6.70.0%6.70.0%6.70.0%6.70.3%6.71.2%6.75.7%6.78.5%6.79.9%852.2%839.0%834.8%814.4%86.1%86.1%86.1%86.1%11.72.0%11.72.0%11.72.0%11.72.0%11.71.7%11.74.6%9.226.9%9.237.2%9.254.0%7.20.6%7.22.0%7.22.0%7.22.5%7.23.5%7.28.1%7.28.2%7.217.6%92.3%90.6%90.4%90.4%94.5%94.5%94.5%94.5%12.218.0%12.218.0%12.218.0%12.218.0%12.211.4%12.24.7%9.719.1%9.721.1%9.78.0%7.72.1%7.75.0%7.75.0%7.77.1%7.711.4%7.719.4%7.727.9%7.737.5%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%12.70.2%12.70.2%12.70.2%12.70.2%12.71.0%12.71.5%10.224.2%10.212.1%10.26.6%8.213.3%8.220.2%8.220.2%8.256.0%8.256.3%8.246.9%8.245.8%8.231.8%110.0%110.0%110.0%110.0%110.0%110.0%110.0%110.0%13.23.6%13.23.6%13.23.6%13.23.6%13.24.5%13.22.0%10.72.6%10.72.8%10.72.9%8.723.7%8.727.8%8.727.8%8.79.7%8.77.4%8.74.9%8.72.7%8.71.7%11.60.0%11.60.0%11.60.0%11.60.0%11.60.0%11.60.0%11.60.0%11.60.0%13.70.2%13.70.2%13.70.2%13.70.2%13.70.3%13.70.3%11.24.0%11.21.7%11.21.3%9.242.6%9.232.3%9.232.3%9.216.1%9.212.2%9.28.0%9.25.3%9.20.9%14.20.6%14.20.6%14.20.6%14.20.6%14.20.5%14.20.1%11.71.5%11.71.3%11.71.3%9.710.3%9.76.5%9.76.5%9.72.9%9.73.1%9.71.3%9.70.5%9.70.1%14.70.2%14.70.2%14.70.2%14.70.2%14.70.2%14.70.1%12.25.8%12.22.1%12.20.3%10.23.7%10.21.3%10.21.3%10.22.1%10.21.9%10.22.1%10.20.2%10.20.1%15.20.3%15.20.3%15.20.3%15.20.3%15.20.3%15.20.1%10.72.0%10.71.8%10.71.8%10.73.0%10.72.8%10.73.4%10.70.2%10.70.0%11.21.5%11.21.9%11.21.9%11.20.0%11.20.0%11.20.1%11.20.1%11.20.1%11.70.1%11.71.2%11.71.2%11.70.1%11.70.0%11.70.0%11.70.0%11.70.0%Total100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%SWEF10.89 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.81 10.53 9.74 9.41 9.21 9.06 8.88 8.88 8.51 8.40 8.18 7.92 7.70 7.56 7.39 7.29 6.94 6.92 6.92 6.92 6.92% Incr.0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 2.6% 8.2% 3.4% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 0.0% 4.4% 1.3% 2.7% 3.3% 2.9% 1.8% 2.3% 1.3% 5.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%CB Dist. 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.81 10.53 9.74 9.41 9.21 9.06 8.88 8.88 8.51 8.40 8.18 7.92 7.70 7.56 7.39 7.29 6.94 6.92 6.92 6.92 6.92Heat Pumps (Heating)Percentage Distribution by Efficiency (HSPF) for Heat Pumps in 1993AGE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 246.010.7%6.010.7%6.010.7%6.010.7%6.010.7%5.920.7%5.840.7%5.750.7%4.750.0%4.750.0%4.750.0%4.680.0%4.610.0%4.540.0%4.480.0%4.410.0%4.340.0%4.280.0%4.220.0%4.150.0%4.090.0%4.030.0%4.030.0%4.030.0%4.030.0%6.549.8%6.549.8%6.549.8%6.549.8%6.549.8%6.449.8%6.349.8%6.259.8%5.250.0%5.250.2%5.250.0%5.170.0%5.100.0%5.020.0%4.950.0%4.870.0%4.800.0%4.730.0%4.660.0%4.590.0%4.520.0%4.460.0%4.460.0%4.460.0%4.460.0%7.0650.1%7.0650.1%7.0650.1%7.0650.1%7.0650.1%6.9550.1%6.8550.1%6.7550.1%5.750.8%5.753.8%5.756.4%5.676.4%5.586.4%5.506.4%5.426.4%5.346.4%5.266.4%5.186.4%5.106.4%5.036.4%4.956.4%4.886.4%4.886.4%4.886.4%4.886.4%7.5828.4%7.5828.4%7.5828.4%7.5828.4%7.5828.4%7.4728.4%7.3628.4%7.2528.4%6.2520.3%6.2521.8%6.2533.0%6.1633.0%6.0733.0%5.9833.0%5.8933.0%5.8033.0%5.7233.0%5.6333.0%5.5533.0%5.4733.0%5.3933.0%5.3133.0%5.3133.0%5.3133.0%5.3133.0%8.106.0%8.106.0%8.106.0%8.106.0%8.106.0%7.986.0%7.876.0%7.756.0%6.7547.2%6.7545.6%6.7538.1%6.6538.1%6.5538.1%6.4638.1%6.3638.1%6.2738.1%6.1738.1%6.0838.1%5.9938.1%5.9038.1%5.8238.1%5.7338.1%5.7338.1%5.7338.1%5.7338.1%8.632.8%8.632.8%8.632.8%8.632.8%8.632.8%8.502.8%8.372.8%8.252.8%7.2523.3%7.2522.1%7.2520.2%7.1420.2%7.0420.2%6.9320.2%6.8320.2%6.7320.2%6.6320.2%6.5320.2%6.4420.2%6.3420.2%6.2520.2%6.1520.2%6.1520.2%6.1520.2%6.1520.2%9.151.9%9.151.9%9.151.9%9.151.9%9.151.9%9.011.9%8.881.9%8.751.9%7.754.9%7.751.3%7.750.1%7.640.1%7.520.1%7.410.1%7.300.1%7.190.1%7.090.1%6.980.1%6.880.1%6.780.1%6.680.1%6.580.1%6.580.1%6.580.1%6.580.1%9.670.1%9.670.1%9.670.1%9.670.1%9.670.1%9.530.1%9.390.1%9.250.1%8.252.3%8.253.5%8.250.7%8.130.7%8.010.7%7.890.7%7.770.7%7.660.7%7.540.7%7.430.7%7.320.7%7.220.7%7.110.7%7.000.7%7.000.7%7.000.7%7.000.7%10.200.0%10.200.0%10.200.0%10.200.0%10.200.0%10.040.0%9.900.0%9.750.0%8.751.2%8.751.6%8.751.5%8.621.5%8.491.5%8.371.5%8.241.5%8.121.5%8.001.5%7.881.5%7.771.5%7.651.5%7.541.5%7.431.5%7.431.5%7.431.5%7.431.5%10.720.0%10.720.0%10.720.0%10.720.0%10.720.0%10.560.0%10.400.0%10.250.0%9.250.0%9.250.1%9.250.0%9.110.0%8.980.0%8.850.0%8.720.0%8.590.0%8.460.0%8.330.0%8.210.0%8.090.0%7.970.0%7.850.0%7.850.0%7.850.0%7.850.0%11.240.0%11.240.0%11.240.0%11.240.0%11.240.0%11.070.0%10.910.0%10.750.0%9.750.0%9.750.0%9.750.0%9.610.0%9.460.0%9.320.0%9.190.0%9.050.0%8.920.0%8.790.0%8.660.0%8.530.0%8.400.0%8.280.0%8.280.0%8.280.0%8.280.0%11.760.0%11.760.0%11.760.0%11.760.0%11.760.0%11.590.0%11.420.0%11.250.0%10.250.0%10.250.0%10.250.0%10.100.0%9.950.0%9.800.0%9.660.0%9.510.0%9.370.0%9.240.0%9.100.0%8.960.0%8.830.0%8.700.0%8.700.0%8.700.0%8.700.0%Total100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%SWEF7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.19 7.08 6.98 6.87 6.81 6.66 6.56 6.47 6.37 6.28 6.18 6.09 6.00 5.91 5.83 5.74 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66% Incr.0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 0.8% 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%CB Dist. 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.19 7.08 6.98 6.87 6.81 6.66 6.56 6.47 6.37 6.28 6.18 6.09 6.00 5.91 5.83 5.74 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66

# Allocation 

# Alloc

Group YEARMADE WINTER SUMMER WINTER SUMMER WINTER SUMMER 

# Station Group

1 1,2 7% 93% 97% 3% 88% 12% 1 14

3 thru 6 7% 93% 98% 2% 89% 11% 2 9

7,8 6% 94% 98% 2% 89% 11% 3 5

9 thru 16 6% 94% 98% 2% 87% 13% 4 6

2 1,2 8% 92% 99% 1% 85% 15% 5 17

3 thru 6 8% 92% 99% 1% 86% 14% 6 1

7,8 5% 95% 99% 1% 83% 17% 7 11

9 thru 16 4% 96% 99% 1% 84% 16% 8 2

3 1,2 9% 91% 98% 2% 86% 14% 9 1

3 thru 6 9% 91% 99% 1% 89% 11% 10 9

7,8 9% 91% 99% 1% 87% 13% 11 13

9 thru 16 10% 90% 99% 1% 84% 16% 12 3

4 1,2 15% 85% 98% 2% 73% 27% 13 3

3 thru 6 14% 86% 99% 1% 74% 26% 14 13

7,8 12% 88% 99% 1% 72% 28% 15 11

9 thru 16 12% 88% 99% 1% 67% 33% 16 11

5 1,2 16% 84% 99% 1% 78% 22% 17 15

3 thru 6 16% 84% 99% 1% 79% 21% 18 13

7,8 12% 88% 99% 1% 73% 27% 19 19

9 thru 16 11% 89% 99% 1% 75% 25% 20 10

6 1,2 46% 54% 100% 0% 50% 50% 21 16

3 thru 6 44% 56% 100% 0% 47% 53% 22 7

7,8 44% 56% 100% 0% 45% 55% 23 12

9 thru 16 44% 56% 100% 0% 45% 55% 24 15

7 1,2 21% 79% 99% 1% 72% 28% 25 19

3 thru 6 17% 83% 100% 0% 74% 26% 26 16

7,8 17% 83% 100% 0% 62% 38% 27 11

9 thru 16 16% 84% 100% 0% 62% 38% 28 10

8 1,2 18% 82% 100% 0% 56% 44% 29 6

3 thru 6 15% 85% 100% 0% 54% 46% 30 4

7,8 14% 86% 100% 0% 50% 50% 31 2

9 thru 16 13% 87% 100% 0% 52% 48% 32 11

9 1,2 32% 68% 99% 1% 55% 45% 33 7

3 thru 6 29% 71% 99% 1% 52% 48% 34 2

7,8 26% 74% 99% 1% 47% 53% 35 15

9 thru 16 25% 75% 99% 1% 48% 52% 36 8

10 1,2 29% 71% 100% 0% 45% 55% 37 1

3 thru 6 23% 77% 100% 0% 36% 64% 38 16

7,8 20% 80% 100% 0% 32% 68% 39 13

9 thru 16 20% 80% 100% 0% 32% 68% 40 13

11 1,2 2% 98% 90% 10% 87% 13% 41 11

3 thru 6 2% 98% 91% 9% 89% 11% 42 19

7,8 2% 98% 93% 7% 88% 12% 43 18

9 thru 16 1% 99% 93% 7% 89% 11% 44 16

12 1,2 29% 71% 93% 7% 80% 20% 45 8

3 thru 6 34% 66% 93% 7% 84% 16% 46 8

7,8 42% 58% 92% 8% 81% 19%

9 thru 16 44% 56% 92% 8% 82% 18% Seasonal Allocation Factors

Cooling Only Heating Only Heating & CoolingNOMINAL First Mortgage Rate Data NOMINAL Second Mortgage Rate Data REAL Gains and Losses for Various AssetsNEW ESTIMATE (1998 Survey of Consumer Finances)Mortgage Weight 2nd Mort Weight S&P 500 Nasdaq Corp AAA CD - 6 mo. Treasury S&P 500 Nasdaq Corp AAA CD - 6 mo. TreasuryNominal interest rateRate Percent Mortgage Bin Rate Percent 2nd Mort Bin Year Mut Fund Stocks Bonds CDs Sav Bonds Mut Fund Stocks Bonds CDs Sav BondsFinance Method Min Max Mean0.0% 0.3% 0.0 0 to 1 0.0% 1.8% 0.0 0 to 1 1999 13% 60% 5% 3% 3% 13% 1 60% 1 5% 1 3% 1 3% 1NOMINAL New home 0.0% 20.0% 7.9% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 1 to 2 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 1 to 2 1998 24% 34% 5% 4% 3% 24% 1 34% 1 5% 1 4% 1 3% 1NOMINAL 2nd mortgage 0.0% 22.0% 10.3% 2.6% 0.1% 2.6 2 to 3 2.5% 1.7% 2.5 2 to 3 1997 21% 12% 5% 3% 3% 21% 1 12% 1 5% 1 3% 1 3% 1NOMINAL Credit card 0.0% 39.0% 13.5% 3.0% 0.2% 3.0 3 to 4 3.6% 0.7% 3.6 3 to 4 1996 14% 19% 4% 3% 2% 14% 1 19% 1 4% 1 3% 1 2% 14.4% 0.3% 4.4 4 to 5 4.0% 0.0% 4.0 4 to 5 1995 28% 36% 5% 3% 3% 28% 1 36% 1 5% 1 3% 1 3% 128%TAX5.5% 0.9% 5.5 5 to 6 5.0% 0.0% 5.0 5 to 6 1994 -7% -9% 5% 2% 2% -7% 1 -9% 1 5% 1 2% 1 2% 11.56%1998 INFLATION6.6% 13.9% 6.6 6 to 7 6.5% 3.7% 6.5 6 to 7 1993 3% 9% 4% 0% 0% 3% 1 9% 1 4% 1 0% 1 0% 17.4% 41.3% 7.4 7 to 8 7.5% 8.3% 7.5 7 to 8 1992 4% 6% 5% 1% 1% 4% 1 6% 1 5% 1 1% 1 1% 1COMPOSITE -- NEW CONSTRUCTION AND REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT8.3% 25.0% 8.3 8 to 9 8.3% 15.8% 8.3 8 to 9 1991 17% 37% 5% 2% 1% 17% 1 37% 1 5% 1 2% 1 1% 1Real interest rate9.3% 8.6% 9.3 9 to 10 9.2% 16.3% 9.2 9 to 10 1990 -5% -16% 4% 3% 2% -5% 1 -16% 1 4% 1 3% 1 2% 1Finance Method Share Min Max Mean10.1% 5.0% 10.1 10 to 11 10.2% 15.8% 10.2 10 to 11 1989 14% 9% 4% 4% 3% 14% 1 9% 1 4% 1 4% 1 3% 1REAL New home (after tax) 34% -1.6% 12.8% 4.2% 11.1% 1.3% 11.1 11 to 12 11.3% 3.1% 11.3 11 to 12 1988 4% 7% 6% 4% 3% 4% 1 7% 1 6% 1 4% 1 3% 1REAL 2nd mortgage (after tax) 2% -1.6% 14.3% 5.9% 12.1% 1.7% 12.1 12 to 13 12.3% 13.3% 12.3 12 to 13 1987 -14% -19% 6% 3% 3% -14% 1 -19% 1 6% 1 3% 1 3% 1REAL Credit card 21% -1.6% 37.4% 12.0% 13.5% 0.5% 13.5 13 to 14 13.3% 5.2% 13.3 13 to 14 1986 12% 2% 7% 5% 4% 12% 1 2% 1 7% 1 5% 1 4% 1REAL Transaction accounts 24% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 14.1% 0.3% 14.1 14 to 15 14.1% 7.7% 14.1 14 to 15 1985 14% 13% 8% 5% 4% 14% 1 13% 1 8% 1 5% 1 4% 1REAL CD (6 month) 4% -2.2% 6.4% 2.4% 15.0% 0.0% 15.0 15 to 16 15.0% 1.9% 15.0 15 to 16 1984 -2% 8% 6% 6% -2% 1 8% 1 6% 1 6% 1REAL Savings Bonds (Treasury) 5% -3.3% 5.6% 1.8% 16.0% 0.3% 16.0 16 to 17 16.0% 0.0% 16.0 16 to 17 1983 10% 9% 6% 6% 10% 1 9% 1 6% 1 6% 1REAL Bonds (Corporate AAA) 1% -1.7% 8.8% 4.5% 17.0% 0.0% 17.0 17 to 18 17.0% 0.0% 17.0 17 to 18 1982 11% 8% 6% 5% 11% 1 8% 1 6% 1 5% 1REAL Stocks (Nasdaq) 5% -19.4% 60.2% 13.3% 18.0% 0.1% 18.0 18 to 19 18.0% 2.0% 18.0 18 to 19 1981 -16% 4% 5% 3% -16% 1 4% 1 5% 1 3% 1REAL Mutual Funds (S&P 500) 4% -40.0% 37.2% 4.5% 19.0% 0.0% 19.0 19 to 20 19.0% 1.0% 19.0 19 to 20 1980 5% -2% -1% -3% 5% 1 -2% 1 -1% 1 -3% 1Total Share100%Wtd Average5.60% 20.0% 0.1% 20.0 20 to 21 20.0% 0.0% 20.0 20 to 21 1979 -3% -2% 0% -2% -3% 1 -2% 1 0% 1 -2% 121.0% 0.0% 21.0 21 to 22 1978 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 1% 1 1% 1 0% 17.94%22.0% 1.6% 22.0 22 to 23 1977 -13% 2% -1% -1% -13% 1 2% 1 -1% 1 -1% 1NEW CONSTRUCTION ONLY1976 1% 3% 0% 0% 1% 1 3% 1 0% 1 0% 1Real interest rate10.30%1975 8% -2% -3% 8% 1 -2% 1 -3% 1Finance Method Share Min Max Mean1974 -40% -1% -3% -40% 1 -1% 1 -3% 1REAL New home (after tax) 100% -1.6% 12.8% 4.2%1973 -22% 3% 1% -22% 1 3% 1 1% 11972 10% 2% 2% 10% 1 2% 1 2% 11971 2% 1% 0% 2% 1 1% 1 0% 1REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT ONLYNOMINAL Credit Card Interest Rate Data1970 3% 2% 1% 3% 1 2% 1 1% 1Real interest rateCC Weight1969 -16% 2% 1% -16% 1 2% 1 1% 1Finance Method Share Min Max MeanRate Percent CC Bin 1968 8% 2% 1% 8% 1 2% 1 1% 1REAL 2nd mortgage (after tax) 3% -1.6% 14.3% 5.9% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0 0 to 1 1967 8% 2% 2% 8% 1 2% 1 2% 1REAL Credit card 32% -1.6% 37.4% 12.0% 1.0% 0.2% 1.0 1 to 2 1966 -16% 3% 2% -16% 1 3% 1 2% 1REAL Transaction accounts 36% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 2 to 3 1965 4% 3% 2% 4% 1 3% 1 2% 1REAL CD (6 month) 6% -2.2% 6.4% 2.4% 3.8% 1.2% 3.8 3 to 4 1964 9% 3% 2% 9% 1 3% 1 2% 1REAL Savings Bonds (Treasury) 8% -3.3% 5.6% 1.8% 4.9% 3.2% 4.9 4 to 5 1963 12% 2% 12% 1 2% 1REAL Bonds (Corporate AAA) 1% -1.7% 8.8% 4.5% 5.8% 4.4% 5.8 5 to 6 1962 -9% 2% -9% 1 2% 1REAL Stocks (Nasdaq) 8% -19.4% 60.2% 13.3% 6.4% 2.2% 6.4 6 to 7 1961 15% 2% 15% 1 2% 1REAL Mutual Funds (S&P 500) 7% -40.0% 37.2% 4.5% 7.6% 1.5% 7.6 7 to 8 1960 3% 2% 3% 1 2% 1Total Share100%Wtd Average6.33% 8.4% 1.9% 8.4 8 to 9 1959 7% 4% 7% 1 4% 19.5% 5.5% 9.5 9 to 10 1958 30% 30% 11 3% 10.3% 1.9% 10.3 10 to 11 1957 -14% -14% 12 32% 11.4% 3.3% 11.4 11 to 12 1956 5% 5% 13 36% 12.4% 8.4% 12.4 12 to 13 1955 25% 25% 14 6% 13.3% 5.0% 13.3 13 to 14 1954 37% 37% 15 8% 14.3% 6.1% 14.3 14 to 15 1953 -7% -7% 16 1% 15.3% 6.1% 15.3 15 to 16 1952 8% 8% 17 8% 16.3% 4.3% 16.3 16 to 17 1951 2% 2% 18 7% 17.3% 5.1% 17.3 17 to 18 1950 18% 18% 118.1% 13.8% 18.1 18 to 19Average4% 13% 5% 2% 2%Finanace Method Retro 4 19.3% 8.9% 19.3 19 to 20Minimum-40% -19% -2% -2% -3%Real Interest Rate Retro 2.4% 20.1% 1.9% 20.1 20 to 21Maximum37% 60% 9% 6% 6%21.1% 5.8% 21.1 21 to 2222.2% 1.6% 22.2 22 to 2323.1% 0.5% 23.1 23 to 2424.3% 0.4% 24.3 24 to 2525.0% 0.0% 25.0 25 to 2626.0% 0.0% 26.0 26 to 2727.0% 0.0% 27.0 27 to 2828.0% 0.0% 28.0 28 to 2929.0% 0.0% 29.0 29 to 3030.0% 0.0% 30.0 30 to 3131.0% 0.0% 31.0 31 to 3232.0% 0.0% 32.0 32 to 3333.0% 0.0% 33.0 33 to 3434.0% 0.0% 34.0 34 to 3535.0% 0.0% 35.0 35 to 3636.0% 0.0% 36.0 36 to 3737.0% 0.0% 37.0 37 to 3838.0% 0.0% 38.0 38 to 3939.0% 0.1% 39.0 39 to 4013.51%LifetimeSURVIVAL FUNCTION OF HEAT PUMPSLifetime Distribution 18.4 years Average Life 18.4 yearsFraction FractionAge Retired Surv0 0.000 1.0001 0.002 0.9982 0.002 0.9963 0.002 0.9944 0.002 0.9925 0.002 0.9906 0.002 0.9887 0.001 0.9878 0.012 0.9769 0.019 0.95610 0.026 0.93011 0.033 0.89712 0.039 0.85813 0.043 0.81514 0.046 0.76915 0.049 0.72016 0.051 0.66917 0.053 0.61618 0.056 0.56019 0.060 0.50020 0.067 0.43321 0.078 0.35522 0.093 0.26223 0.116 0.14624 0.146 0.000Wt.Avg 18.4Source:M.E. Bucher, C.M. Grastataro, W.R. Coleman. 1990. "Heat Pump Life and Compressor Longevity in Diverse Climates."ASHRAE Transactions.AT-90-29-3.Survival Function of Heat Pumps0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0 5 10 15 20 25Age (year)

% SurvivingPage 1SetupPLEASE DO NOT CHANGE ANYTHING HEREUser ChoicesFPindex2AEO 2000 - Reference CaseAEO 2000 - Reference CaseStartYear 2006Projection TrendBaseOpt 1Baseline (SEER=10)Elec Elec ElecStdOpt430% Impr. (SEER=13)cent/kWh cent/kWh cent/kWhPriceOpt 10=ARI mean, 1=Rev.Engr.19988.05 1.0019988.05System Opt 1Packaged System19997.92 0.9820007.86CB 0 20007.86 0.9820107.3920017.74 0.9620207.28Multi-Run Options20027.63 0.9520307.28StdOptBegin320037.59 0.942000-2030StdOptEnd520047.56 0.94Growth -0.3%20057.47 0.93Comm./Resid. Choice2<-This cell is dynamically defined when20067.48 0.93user updates the % comm. and % resid.20077.48 0.93% Shipment Breakdown(Don’t change assumptions here)20087.46 0.93Commercial1 10.0% 20097.37 0.92Residential2 90.0% 20107.39 0.92Base Manuf. Cost$59320117.33 0.91Base Equipment Price$1,43920127.30 0.91Base Opt Manuf. Cost$59320137.29 0.91Base Opt Equipment Price$1,43920147.32 0.91Std Opt Manuf. Cost$81820157.33 0.91Std Opt Equipment Price$1,87520167.32 0.91System Installation Price$2,16020177.32 0.9120187.32 0.91value user use 20197.29 0.91used value default 20207.28 0.90Manufacturer Markup123% 0% 120217.28 0.90Distributor Markup109% 0% 120227.28 0.90Dealer Markup127% 0% 120237.28 0.90Builder Markup109% 0% 120247.28 0.90Sales Tax104% 0% 120257.28 0.90Std. Level20267.28 0.90Std Opt Price Multiplier100% 0% 1020277.28 0.90108% 0% 1120287.28 0.90113% 0% 1220297.28 0.90138% 0% 1320307.28 0.90174% 0% 14186% 0% 15186% 0% 16Page 1