From: Eckman, Tom [mailto:teckman@nwcouncil.org]

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 6:54 PM

To: 'Rosenstock, Steven'; Cymbalsky, John; Meyers , Aaron; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert

Berman; Jerry Hodge; John Caskey

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB);

mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATIm etals.com; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net;

tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; Jame s.Lass@cleco.com;

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com;

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com; Trujillo, Anto nio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L;

tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton .com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, Emily

(CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; DYoung@energy-solution.com;

rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific.com;

carlos.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com; gr eg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrush@gmail.com;

Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov;

gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov; Sco ttB@LVMetals.com; dave.millure@metglas.com;

kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; Brian Co ffey; Caitlin Johnson; Matthew Nardotti; Michael

Rivest; Zhimei Luo; Jim Creevy; mwaltner@nrdc. org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop;

vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com; gbf1@ pge.com; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com;

ahofmann@publicpower.org; pkumar@publicpo wer.org; adelaski@standardsASAP.org;

jmauer@standardsasap.org; wes.patterson@us.abb.com; chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com;

thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections

Aaron/Steve R., et al:

As part of developing the last Pacific Northwest Power Plan, the Council analyzed the potential impact of

electric vehicles on PNW loads through 2030. We created three scenarios, ranging from a low market

share of 20% of cumulative new sales by 2030 to a high of 48% of cumulative ne w sales by 2030. For

comparison, my review of the spreadsheet that John sent shows EV’s and PHEV’s comprising just over 4

% of all new vehicle sales between 2010 and 2030, so our “low” case scenario is five times as high as the

one assumed in the AEO. Bottom line, is that und er the Council’s low case scenario, PNW “off

‐ peak”

loads would increase about 800 MW (4% above the base forecast) while under the high case they would

increase by just under 2000 MW (10% above the base forecast). Both scenarios assumed that 95% of

the charging would tak e place “off

‐ peak.” Given this rather modest impact in off

‐ peak demand (In the

PNW peak loads are typically 1.8 times off

‐ peak loads) it would seem very unlikely that average

transformer loading will increase dramatically, especially given (as has been noted by Steve R. in prior e

‐ mail) the impact of other fe deral appliance efficiency standards and the deployment of smart grid over

this same time frame.

I’ve attached presentation staff made to the Council during the plan’s development that discusses the

assumptions and results of this analysis in more detail.

Tom



### Tom Eckman

Manager, Conservation Resources

Northwest Power and Conservation Council

851 SW 6th Avenue, Suite 1100

Portland, OR 97204

Office

‐ 503.222.5161

### Mobile

‐ 503.803.5047

Fax

‐ 503.820.2370

From: Rosenstock, Steven [ mailto:SRosenstock@eei.org ]

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 10:54 AM

To: Cymbalsky, John; Meyers, Aaron; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; John

Caskey

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com ; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com ; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB);

mhyland@appanet.org ; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com ; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net ; tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com ; dbrender@cda.copper.org ; James.Lass@cleco.com ; chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com ; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com ; ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com ; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L;

tballo@earthjustice.org ; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com ; eduardorobles@eaton.com ; Marchetti, Emily

(CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; DYoung@energy-solution.com ; rick.anderson@faypwc.com ; bsmith@federalpacific.com ; rgreeson@federalpacific.com ; carlos.gaytan@ge.com ; artrosenfeld@gmail.com ; greg.coulter405@gmail.com ; ned.efbrush@gmail.com ;

Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com ; Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov ; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov ; kcoughlin@lbl.gov ; ScottB@LVMetals.com ; dave.millure@metglas.com ;

kwinder@mleainc.com ; jrossetti@mlgw.org ; brian.coffey@navigant.com ; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com ; matthew.nardotti@navigant.com ; mrivest@navigant.com ; zhimei.luo@navigant.com ; Jim Creevy;

mwaltner@nrdc.org ; rroy@nrdc.org ; robert.saint@nreca.coop ; Eckman, Tom;

vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com ; gbf1@pge.com ; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com ; ahofmann@publicpower.org ; pkumar@publicpower.org ; adelaski@standardsASAP.org ; jmauer@standardsasap.org ; wes.patterson@us.abb.com ; chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com ; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com ; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections



### As a point of reference, the spreadsheet that Mr. Cymbalsky sent out (thank you, John) showed

estimated sales of 24,900 EV’s and PHEV’s in 2011. Based on the following articles:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/ 11/02/us-tesla-idUSTRE7A18RJ20111102

http://detnews.com/article/20111102/AUTO 01/111020344/Chevy-Volt-sees-best-sales-yet--

Nissan-Leaf-still-ahead

As of October 31, 2011, there have been 13,051 Leafs a nd Volts sold or leased in the US so far

in 2011. I could not find specific numbers for th e Tesla Roadster or conversions of gasoline

vehicles to PHEV’s in 2011, so I will make a semi -educated guess that other vehicle sales would

raise the number to about 13,500 EV’s and PHEV’s sold in 2011 as of 10/31/2011.

Will the number rise to 24,900 by the end of this year? I will leave that to the forecasters..... :-)

Steve Rosenstock

Manager, Energy Solutions

Edison Electric Institute

srosenstock@eei.org

202-508-5465

### From: Cymbalsky, John [ mailto:John.Cymbalsky@EE.Doe.Gov ]

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 12:20 PM

To: 'Meyers, Aaron'; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hi rsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; John Caskey

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com ; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com ; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB);

mhyland@appanet.org ; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com ; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net ; tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com ; dbrender@cda.copper.org ; James.Lass@cleco.com ; chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com ; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com ; ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com ; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L;

tballo@earthjustice.org ; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com ; eduardorobles@eaton.com ; Marchetti,

Emily (CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; Rosenstock, Steven;

DYoung@energy-solution.com ; rick.anderson@faypwc.com ; bsmith@federalpacific.com ; rgreeson@federalpacific.com ; carlos.gaytan@ge.com ; artrosenfeld@gmail.com ; greg.coulter405@gmail.com ; ned.efbrush@gmail.com ; Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com ; Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov ; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov ; kcoughlin@lbl.gov ;

ScottB@LVMetals.com ; dave.millure@metglas.com ; kwinder@mleainc.com ; jrossetti@mlgw.org ; brian.coffey@navigant.com ; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com ; matthew.nardotti@navigant.com ; mrivest@navigant.com ; zhimei.luo@navigant.com ; Jim

Creevy; mwaltner@nrdc.org ; rroy@nrdc.org ; robert.saint@nreca.coop ; Teckman@nwcouncil.org ; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com ; gbf1@pge.com ; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com ; ahofmann@publicpower.org ; pkumar@publicpower.org ; adelaski@standardsASAP.org ; jmauer@standardsasap.org ; wes.patterson@us.abb.com ; chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com ; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com ; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections

Aaron et al:

Attached is the official USG projections for L DV sales from EIA, the independent statistical

agency of the USG from which our electricity projections are based.

John

From: Meyers, Aaron [ mailto:Aaron.Meyers@CooperIndustries.com ]

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 12:09 PM

To: Steve Nadel; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; John Caskey

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com ; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com ; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB);

mhyland@appanet.org ; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com ; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net ; tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com ; dbrender@cda.copper.org ; James.Lass@cleco.com ; chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com ; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com ; ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com ; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L;

tballo@earthjustice.org ; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com ; eduardorobles@eaton.com ; Marchetti,

Emily (CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; Cymbalsky, John;

srosenstock@eei.org ; DYoung@energy-solution.com ; rick.anderson@faypwc.com ;

### bsmith@federalpacific.com ; rgreeson@federalpacific.com ; carlos.gaytan@ge.com ; artrosenfeld@gmail.com ; greg.coulter405@gmail.com ; ned.efbrush@gmail.com ; Richard

Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com ; Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov ; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov ; kcoughlin@lbl.gov ; ScottB@LVMetals.com ; dave.millure@metglas.com ;

kwinder@mleainc.com ; jrossetti@mlgw.org ; brian.coffey@navigant.com ; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com ; matthew.nardotti@navigant.com ; mrivest@navigant.com ; zhimei.luo@navigant.com ; Jim Creevy; mwaltner@nrdc.org ; rroy@nrdc.org ; robert.saint@nreca.coop ; Teckman@nwcouncil.org ; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com ; gbf1@pge.com ; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com ; ahofmann@publicpower.org ; pkumar@publicpower.org ; adelaski@standardsASAP.org ; jmauer@standardsasap.org ; wes.patterson@us.abb.com ; chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com ; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com ; charlied@uus.org

Subject: Electric Vehicle Projections

Dear Distribution Transformer Ef ficiency Subcommittee, et al,

The following link is to an articl e published by the NEMA Intellig ence Portal and provides some

insight into the projected im pact of electric vehicles:

http://portal.nema.org/Pages/document.aspx?docId=3156&LoadSource=LexisNexis&utm_mediu

m=email&utm_campaign=digest_2011-11-

17&utm_source=aaron.meyers@cooperindustries.com

Most interestingly, by 2025, one in seven new cars is projected to be a zero-emission or plug-in

hybrid vehicle, and 1.4 million are projected to be on the road in California alone by 2025. I

don’t see how we can ignore the impact of this significant change. Meeting the charging needs

will dramatically change the loading assumptions in the current analysis. As someone pointed

out at the October meeting, the reference loading leve l (50%) is part of the testing standard and is

not on the table for negotiating purpo ses, so this is just another non-trivial factor that must be

considered outside of the existing analysis results.

Keep in mind that for two transformers having the same efficiency at 50% load, the amorphous

one will be more efficient at low loading levels whereas the grain-oriented one will be more

efficient at higher loading levels. Looking at Cooper’s data, the ratio of no-load to load losses at

100% load on a typical DOE comp liant grain-oriented transformer today is 6:1, and on a Cooper

amorphous unit it’s about 10:1. To make an anal ogy, if no-load losses were a slice of pie, the

load losses would be the rest of the entire pie! Load losses are a huge lever and cannot be tossed

aside as if merely a nuisance! Most of the discussion thus far has been squarely focused on noload losses. We need to make sure we aren ’t spending four dollars to save fifty cents.

Best Regards,

Aaron