1 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govBUILDING TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAMEnergy Conservation StandardsPreliminary Analysisfor Fluorescent Lamp BallastsLinda GravesDepartment of EnergyEnergy Efficiency & Renewable Energyballasts.rulemaking@ee.doe.govApril 26, 2010234Background and Legal Authority5234156Public Meeting AgendaMarket & Tech;Screening; EngineeringEnergy Use; Markup AnalysisOverviewLife-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisNational Impact AnalysisPreliminary MIA; NOPR Analyses2 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov3 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govStakeholder Participation in theRulemaking ProcessFederal RegisterNoticesFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRule•Public meetings and oral comments•Written comments on Federal Register notices, TechnicalSupport Documents and Analytical Spreadsheets•Data input from manufacturers and other interested parties.StakeholderParticipationTodayFluorescent Lamp BallastsRulemaking Schedule2007200820092010201120122013201420152016MilestoneDateFramework Document PublishedJanuary 14, 2008Federal Register Notice of Public Meeting and Availability ofthe Preliminary Technical Support DocumentMarch 24, 2010Issue NOPRDecember 2010Issue Final RuleJune 2011Effective DateJune 20144 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov234Background and Legal Authority523456Public Meeting Agenda1Market & Tech;Screening; EngineeringEnergy Use; Markup AnalysisOverviewLife-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisNational Impact AnalysisPreliminary MIA; NOPR Analyses5 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov6 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleMarket &TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use &End Use LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisPreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysisPreliminary AnalysisRulemaking StagePurpose•Market and Technology Assessment–Determine the scope of coverage–Characterize the fluorescent lamp ballast market and industry–Identify the technology options to improve ballast efficacy factor–Establish product classes•Screening Analysis–Screen out technology options that DOE will not consider in theengineering analysis forfluorescent lamp ballasts7 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScope of Coverage•Fluorescent lamp ballastmeans a device whichis used tostart and operate fluorescentlamps by providing a startingvoltage and currentand limiting the current during normaloperation. 42U.S.C. 6291(29)(a)•Fluorescent lamp ballaststhat are currently coveredinclude ballasts that operate:Number of LampsLamp Type1 or 2F40T121 or 2F34T122F96T122F96T12/ES2F96T12HO2F96T12HO/ES8 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScope of Coverage•DOE considered additional fluorescent lampballasts forcoverage according to the directive in 42 U.S.C.6295(g)(7)(B)•DOE employed the following criteria when determiningwhich additional ballasts to include in coverage:–Potential for significant energy savings–Technological feasibility–Economic justification9 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScope of Coverage•In the preliminary scope of coverage, DOE included ballaststhat operate:–One to six 4-foot MBP lamps in the commercial sector–One to four 4-foot MBP lamps in the residential sector–One to two 4-foot MiniBP SO lamps–One to four 4-foot MiniBP HO lamps–One to two 8-foot SP Slimline lamps–One to two 8-foot RDC HO lamps–One to six 8-foot RDC HO lamps in cold temperature outdoorsigns•DOE did not consider dimming ballasts in the preliminaryscope of coverage10 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 2:DOE invites comment onits rationale for extendingcoverage and also its proposed scope of coverage.DOEspecifically requestscomment on its exclusion of dimmingballasts from the scope of coverageIssue 3 from the Test Procedure NOPR:DOE seekscomment on potential methods of measurement to determinethe efficiency of dimming ballasts if DOE decides to includethem in the scope of energy conservation standards.11 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProduct Classes•DOE establishes separate energy conservation standardsfor each product class•DOE divides covered product into classes by:(1)the type of energy used;(2)the capacity ofthe equipment; and(3)any other performance-related features that require differentstandard levels, such as featuresaffecting consumer utility.(42 USC 6295(q))12 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProduct Classes•DOE used the following criteria to subdivide ballastproduct classes:–Lamp Length–Number of Lamps–Lumen Package–Lamp Diameter (T5 Lamps)–Starting Method–Market Sector13 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProduct Classes:Lamp Length and Number•A ballast’s inputpower affects its BEF–Longer lamps tend to have higherwattages than comparableshorter lamps and therefore ballasts operating longer lampshave lower BEFs–Operating greater numbersof lamps causes a ballast tohave a lower BEF than if it were operating only one lamp•Both lamp length and operating different numbers oflamps affect the physical space required by the lamp-andballast system.•Result: Subdivide product classes by ballasts that operate:–One, two, three, four, five, or six lamps–Four- or eight-foot lamps14 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProduct Classes:Lumen Package•Lumen package refers to thequantity of light provided bya lamp-and-ballast system•HO systems have a higher input power compared to SOsystems, causing them to have lower BEFs.•Low and high BFballasts have lowerBEFs than normalBF ballasts.•Consumers use systems with different lumen packages fordifferent applications•Result: Subdivide product classes by ballasts that operate:–Standard Output or High Output–Low (BF ≤ 0.78), Normal (0.78 < BF < 1.10), or High (BF ≥1.10) ballast factor15 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProduct Classes:Lamp Diameter•Due to higher input power, T12 ballasts generally havelower BEFs than T8 ballasts, which in turn have lowerBEFs than T5 ballasts.•Lamp diameter alonedoes not representa unique utility–T8 systems are direct replacements for T12 systems.•T5 systems have certain application restrictions due totheir quantity of light per unit lamp length.–T5 systems are not appropriate for use in direct lightingfixtures.•Result: Establish separate product classes for ballasts thatoperate T5 lamps16 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProduct Classes:Starting Method•Programmed Start (PS) and Rapid Start (RS) ballastshave lower BEFs than InstantStart (IS) ballasts due toelectrode heating•IS ballasts are common replacements for RS ballasts•Occupancy sensors are predominantly used with PSballasts rather than IS or RS ballasts•Result: Subdivide product classes by ballasts that operate:–PS Ballasts or RS/IS Ballasts17 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProduct Classes:Market Sector•Residential ballastshave lower BEFsthan comparablecommercial ballasts,possibly due tomore stringent EMIrequirements•Sign ballasts have lower BEFsthan comparable ballaststhat operate 8-foot HO lamps, due to cold temperaturerequirements•Use in a specific application, for whichother ballasts arenot a suitable substitute, indicates utility•Result: Subdivide product classes by ballasts that operate:–Residential Ballasts vs. Commercial/Industrial Ballasts–Cold Temperature Sign Ballasts18 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProduct Classes: Example•In summary, DOE established 70product classes forfluorescent lamp ballastsBallast andLamp TypeStartingMethodBallastFactorNumber of LampsOneTwoThreeFourFiveSix4-Foot MBP and2-Foot U-ShapedIS and RSHigh123456Normal789101112Low131415161718PSHigh192021222324Normal252627282930Low313233343536...19 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 3:DOE defined product classes based on lamp length,lumen package, maximum numberof lamps operated, startingmethod, ballast factor, and market sector. These class-settingfactors created 70 product classes. DOE seeks comments onthese product classes–including comments on theappropriate starting method definitionsto use in the regulatorylanguage and the ranges attributed to high, low, and normalballast factor20 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govTechnology Options to Improve BEF•Electronic Ballasts•Lamp Diameter•Improved Components–Transformers–Diodes–Capacitors–Transistors•Improved Circuit Design–Cathode cutout–Integrated circuits–Starting method21 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 4:DOE identified several technology options to improvethe efficiency of a fluorescent lamp ballast. DOE invitescomment on these options, discussed in preliminary TSDchapter 3.22 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScreening Analysis•Technology options are screened using the followingcriteria:–Technological feasibility–Practicability to manufacture, install, and service–Adverse impacts on product utility or availability tocustomers–Adverse impacts on health or safety•DOE screened out onetechnology option: laminatedsheets of amorphous steel23 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssue 5:DOE invites comment on the technology optioneliminated during the screening analysis.24 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleMarket &TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use &End Use LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisPreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysisPreliminary AnalysisRulemaking StageEngineering Analysis:Purpose•To evaluate design optionsthat improve BEF relative tothe baseline units.•To characterize manufacturer selling price versus BEFrelationship for higher BEFfluorescent lamp ballastsDownstream Analyses•Life-Cycle Cost andPayback Period Analysis•National Impact AnalysisManufacturer Selling Price–BEF Relationship

Manufacturer Selling PriceBEF25 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEngineering Analysis:MethodologyChooseRepresentativeProduct ClassesScale to ProductClasses NotAnalyzedDefine BaselineModelsSelect HigherBEFSubstitutesDevelop CSLsDevelop MPCs�Choose product classes to be analyzed in the engineeringand life-cyclecost analysis.�Define characteristics of models in each representativeproduct class which will serveas reference points to assesschanges due to energy conservation standards.�Identify higher BEF substitutes from a database ofcommercially-availableballasts. Substituteswill maintainsimilar light outputand save energywhen possible.�Determine manufacturer production costsfor baselineballasts and theirhigher BEF substitutes.�Develop candidatestandard levels thatspan the range ofefficacy from the baseline to the maximum technologicallyfeasible.�Scale results to other product classes not analyzed.26 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govRepresentative Product Classes•DOE chose representative productclasses to concentrateits analytical effort.•DOE based its selection on those product classes with thehighest volume of shipments.•Of 70 total product classes, DOE selected 10 asrepresentative.•Four for ballasts that operate 4-foot MBP lamps in thecommercial sector•At least one for every other ballast type•DOE tested ballasts in allrepresentative product classes.27 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govBaseline Models•Typically a baseline ballastjust meets the existing energyconservation standard orrepresents the most common,lowest BEF ballast inthat product class.•DOE selected multiple baseline ballasts in certain productclasses to ensure consideration of different ballast typesand their associatedconsumer economics.•For example, for ballasts that operate two 4-foot MBPlamps, DOE selected two baselines–T12, RS ballast–T8, IS ballast28 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govCSLs for Ballasts that OperateTwo 4-foot MBP Lamps•DOE chose more efficient substitutes from commerciallyavailable products and testedthem accordingto the BE toBEF test procedure.CSLLampTypeStartingMethodInputPowerBEFBECSL0/BaselineT12RS63.51.35980.1%CSL1/BaselineT8IS60.41.45085.4%CSL2T8IS56.01.53590.5%CSL3T8IS56.41.56192.0%•DOE plans to conduct additional testing for the NOPR todetermine BEFs for those ballasts not testedusing theproposed active mode test procedure.29 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 6:DOE requests comment on its selection ofrepresentative productclasses, baseline ballasts, and thelamp-and-ballast systems chosen to represent baseline andincreasing efficiency.Issue 7:The highest CSL presented, which represents themost efficient tier of commercially available ballasts, is the“max-tech” level that DOE determined for this preliminaryrulemaking. However, DOE presents additional research inappendix 5D of the preliminary TSD to explore whethertechnologies used in products similarto ballasts can be usedto improve the efficiency of ballasts currently on the market.DOE requests comments on the maximum technologicallyfeasible ballast efficiency and its associated MSP.30 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govManufacturer Production Cost•Full production costs–Material and component costs derived from a tear-downanalysis–For ballasts that could not be torndown due to potting, MPCwas developed by comparingretail prices to teardownresultsManufacturerProductionCostManufacturerMarkups=ManufacturerSelling Price•Direct Material•Sales & marketing•Direct Labor•Research & development•Factory Overhead•Interest•Depreciation•Profit31 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govManufacturer Markups•DOE developed manufacturer markups using SEC form 10-Kreports from publicly ownedballast manufacturing companies–Net Sales–Costs of Sales–Gross Profit•DOE verified the resulting markupswith confidential prices frommanufacturers•The average manufacturer markup was found to be 1.50ManufacturerProductionCostManufacturerMarkups=ManufacturerSelling Price•Direct material•Sales & marketing•Direct labor•Research & development•Factory overhead•Interest•Depreciation•Profit32 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govManufacturer Selling Price:Two 4-foot MBP Lamps•The following tableshows the MSP associated with eachCSL in the two-lamp 4-footMBP representative productclassCSLLampTypeBEFBEMSPMSP DeterminationCSL0/BaselineT121.35980.1%$10.26Retail Price ScalingCSL1/BaselineT81.45085.4%$7.43TeardownCSL2T81.53590.5%$10.01TeardownCSL3T81.56192.0%$8.93Teardown33 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for Discussion•For the five representative product classes for which noteardowns were possible, DOE usedretail price scaling todetermine MPC.Issue 8:DOE used scaling techniques estimate the MPC forthose ballasts that it did not tear down. DOE then calculatedMSPs by applying overhead and manufacturer markups. DOErequests comments on its estimates of manufacturerproduction costs, as well asDOE’s estimates for overhead andthe manufacturer markup.34 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 10:DOE requests comments on how safetyrequirements for system interconnects, safety requirements forlamp end-of-life protection, electromagnetic field requirements,and hazardous material regulation could affect the efficiency ofcommercially available ballasts. DOE also requestsinformation on the cost of low and high efficiency ballasts thatare expected to be compliant with these regulations so thatDOE can assess how these requirements may affect paybackcalculations.35 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScaling CSLs to Other ProductClasses•DOE analyzed test data todetermine the relationshipbetween ballasts that–Operate different numbers of lamps–Have different starting methods–Have different ballast factors•DOE focused its effort on extensive test data obtained forballasts that operate 4-foot MBP lamps•DOE created scaling factorsbased on relationshipsobserved among these ballasts to scale CSLs to nonrepresentative product classes.36 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScaling CSLs to Other ProductClasses: Results•Number of Lamps–DOE found a strong correlation between BEF and total ratedlamp power operated by the ballast.–DOE found the equation that best represents thisrelationship to be:Ballast Efficacy Factor = Coefficient*Total Rated Lamp Power-0.942•Starting Method–DOE found this average reduction to be 2.2% and thereforeapplied this scaling factor whenscaling to product classeswith programmed start ballasts.•Ballast Factor–DOE found this average reduction to be 3.4% for high ballastfactor and 1.0% for low ballastfactor and therefore appliedthese scaling factorsas needed.37 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 9:To determine CSLs for non-representative productclasses, DOE tested the BEFof certain ballasts in thoseproduct classes andcompared these values to therepresentative classesto create scaling relationships. Thesescaling relationships were used to create CSLs for thoseproduct classes notdirectly analyzed. DOE requestscomments on its scaling methodology and the proposed CSLsfor fluorescent lamp ballasts in non-representative productclasses.38 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov234Background and Legal Authority53456Public Meeting Agenda39 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov12Market & Tech;Screening; EngineeringEnergy Use; Markup AnalysisOverviewLife-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisNational Impact AnalysisPreliminary MIA; NOPR Analyses40 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleMarket &TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use &End Use LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisPreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysisPreliminary AnalysisRulemaking StageEnergy Use Characterization•Annual energy consumption (kWh)= system input power xannual operating hours•DOE developed measured inputpower for representative lampand-ballast systems in the engineering analysis•DOE used normalized input power to compare newconstruction/retrofit and baselinesystems on an “equal lumens”basis,e.g.,No. ofLampsBallastTypeCSLSystemInputPower(W)SystemMeanLumensChangein MeanLumenOutputRatioNormalizedSystemMeanLumensNormalizedSystem InputPower(W)2F32T8CSL063.55,1100%100%5,11063.52F32T8CSL156.94,917-4%104%5,11059.141 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEnergy Use Characterization•DOE developed annual operating hours with data from DOEsurveys (LMC, CBECS, MECS, RECS)•	 DOE’s assumed annual operating hours capture variationacross census divisions and largeStates, building types, andlighting applicationsSectorAverage AnnualOperation(hrs/yr)Commercial3,435Commercial (PS)*2,405Industrial4,795Residential789*PS ballasts operating 4-footMBP lamps on occupancy sensors.42 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 11:DOE welcomes comments on the basis andassignment of end-use operating profiles for the ballast typescovered under this rulemaking.Issue 12:DOE invites comments on the use of lightingcontrols in the commercial,industrial, and residential sectors.43 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov•DOE developed markups to relate manufacturer selling prices(MSP) to end-userballast prices•DOE used distribution channel percentages, MSPs fromthe engineering analysis, andcompany balance sheets(SEC form 10-K)• DOE’s analysis yielded baseline and incremental markupsMarkups AnalysisBALLAST MANUFACTUREROEM FIXTUREMANUFACTURERELECTRICAL WHOLESALERCONTRACTOREND-USER OF LIGHTING SYSTEMFIXTUREBALLASTSREPLACEMENTBALLASTSVia OEMsVia WholesalersBaselineIncrementalBaselineIncrementalOEM FixtureManufacturer1.511.16--­--­ElectricalWholesaler1.391.101.391.10Contractor1.131.131.131.13Sales Tax1.07121.0712Estimated %of Shipments6337Weighted OverallBaseline Markup2.08Weighted OverallIncremental Markup1.3744 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 13:DOE seeks comments on typical markups, as wellas ballast pricing data that DOE coulduse to verify the pricemarkups it developed for the preliminary analysis.45 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov234Background and Legal Authority53456Public Meeting Agenda46 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov12Market & Tech;Screening; EngineeringEnergy Use; Markup AnalysisOverviewLife-Cycle Cost And Payback Period AnalysisNational Impact AnalysisPreliminary MIA; NOPR Analyses47 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov47FrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleNationalImpactAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationMarket andTechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineEquipmentPriceLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisShipmentsAnalysisPreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysisPreliminary AnalysisRulemaking StageLife-Cycle Cost andPayback Period Analysis•Economic evaluation from the end-user perspective•Life-cycle cost (LCC) equalsend-user price plus the sum ofannual operating costs discounted to a particular base year•Results are expressed asLCC savings (baseline minus thestandard level)•Simple payback period (PBP) is alsocalculated and reported inthis analysisCombineChangesin CostsLCC ResultsFirst Cost(End-User Price + Installation Cost)Operating ExpensesConvert toPresentValue48 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govLCC-PBP Analysis Inputs•DOE derived electricityprices and projections from 2007 EIAform 861 data and EIA AnnualEnergy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009)•DOE based installation costs on labor time and labor rate datafrom the 2000 Ballast Rule,RS Means, and the U.S. Bureau ofLabor Statistics•DOE assumed ballastlifetimes of 49,054 hours (commercial &industrial) and 11,835 hours (residential)–translates to approximately 15 years (commercial), 10 years(industrial), and 15years (residential)–consistent with the 2000 Ballast Ruleand available “life measure”studies49 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govLCC-PBP Analysis Inputs•DOE calculated weighted-average discount rates from estimatesfor cost of capital (commercial& industrial) and estimates ofinterest (“finance cost”) to purchase residential products•commercial = 7.0%•industrial=7.6%•residential=5.6%50 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govLCC-PBP Analysis Results•Results generally show higher installed prices and lower operating costs athigher efficiency levels, which typically results in positive LCC savingsBallast Product ClassPurchasingEventCSLLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavings$PBPyears2-Lamp RS & ISOperating 4-foot MBP and2-foot U-Shaped Lamps(Commercial,F32T8 Baseline)Replacement0 / 1273.24N/A55.87N/AN/A2264.069.1859.421.392.63263.489.7657.981.260.1•Some product classes result in negativePBP values, reflecting reductions inboth operating costs and installed costs at higher efficiency levelsBallast Product ClassPurchasingEventCSLLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavings$PBPyears2-Lamp RS & ISOperating 4-foot MBP and2-foot U-Shaped Lamps(Commercial, F34T12 Baseline)Replacement0308.59N/A68.41N/AN/A1273.2435.3555.872.53-4.92264.0644.5359.423.92-2.23263.4845.1157.983.80-2.751 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govLCC-PBP Analysis Results•PBP values of “never” indicate higher operating costsBallast Product ClassPurchasingEventCSLLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavings$PBPyears2-Lamp RS & ISOperating 4-foot MBP and2-foot U-Shaped Lamps(Residential,F34T12 Baseline)Replacement0123.98N/A68.41N/AN/A1114.579.4155.87-0.29Never2120.113.8759.42-0.49Never52 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 14:DOE’s approach for forecasting electricity pricesdoes not include evaluating demand load profiles or allow forquantifying the potential impacts onpeak demand for electricityfrom changes in product efficiency. DOE requests commentson alternate data sources, methodsfor quantifying changes indemand charges, and their impacts on electricity prices.53 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 15:DOE acknowledges the general trend towardsmaller fixtures and ballast enclosures, and assumed ballastoperating temperatures equal to or greater than those forcurrent ballast designs, with noextended life for energyefficient ballast designs. DOE welcomes additional commentsand data on operating lifetimes for energy efficient ballasts.54 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov234Background and Legal Authority53456Public Meeting Agenda55 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov12Market & Tech;Screening; EngineeringEnergy Use; Markup AnalysisOverviewLife-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisNational Impact AnalysisPreliminary MIA; NOPR Analyses56 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov56FrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleNationalImpactAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationMarket andTechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineEquipmentPriceLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisShipmentsAnalysisPreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysisPreliminary AnalysisRulemaking StageShipments Analysis•DOE estimated historical ballast shipments using U.S. CensusCurrent Industrial Reports (1990-2005)•DOE calculated installed stock based on estimated lifetimes•Finally, DOE developed base-case and standards-caseshipment projections based on:–assumed purchasing events–replacement and floor space growth rates–existing and emerging technology scenarios,e.g., in which LEDsdisplace fluorescent57 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govShipments Analysis Results•Replacement ballasts dominate shipments•In some product classes, “surges” of replacement ballasts mimic theshape of historical shipments growth–pattern repeated as subsequent generations are replaced•Cyclical shipment pattern also reflects assumed ballast lifetimes andfailure distributions010,000,00020,000,00030,000,00040,000,00050,000,00060,000,00070,000,00080,000,00090,000,000100,000,0002014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044

ShipmentsYear4-foot T8 MBP Base-Case Existing Tech Forecast4-foot T12 MBP Base-Case Existing Tech Forecast4-foot T8 MBP Base-Case Emerging Tech Forecast4-foot T12 MBP Base-Case Emerging Tech Forecast58 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govNote on Historical Shipments•DOE observed striking growth in historical ballasts shipmentsnot consistent with a maturemarket (450% in 15 years)–was the stock growing at the same rate as shipments?•DOE assumed the stock wasgrowing at most 2% per year–any shipments beyond that assumed to be due to retrofits140,000,000120,000,000100,000,00080,000,000Retrofit shipments60,000,000"Regular" shipments40,000,00020,000,000-199219941996199820002002200459 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 16:DOE’s assumed average ballast lifetimes suggestthat a majority of ballast failuresoccur later in the servicelifetime. DOE seeks commenton the assumed average ballastlifetimes, as well as thedistribution of failures around theaverage values. In particular,DOE seeks comment on howmany years beyond average lifetimes that ballasts potentiallyremain in service.60 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 17:DOE used data from the U.S. Census Bureau toestimate the total historical shipments of each ballast typeanalyzed, which required disaggregating the Census data andadjusting it to include estimated non-NEMA shipments. DOEseeks actual, disaggregatedballast and residential fixtureshipments data to help verify its shipments analysis.Sub-issue:DOE seeks comment on therelationship between historical shipments andhistorical stock in the period 1992-2005.61 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 18:DOE based future ballast shipment trends onmanufacturer interviews and market trends identified in the2009 Lamps Rule; DOE assumes that these trends integratevarious regulatory and non-regulatory initiatives in the lightingmarketplace. DOE requests comments on the magnitude andtiming of its forecasted ballast shipment trends (e.g., rising anddeclining shipments, plateaus, etc.) aswell as the impacts ofcurrent regulatory initiatives on future ballast shipments.62 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govNational Impacts Analysis (NIA)•National energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV)calculated for period from 2014-2044NationalEnergy Savings(Quads)NationalNet Present Value($ billions)ShipmentsModelNationalEnergySavingsNationalEconomicImpactsLCCAnalysisResults andOther Inputs63 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov2009$ (m illions) 2008$ (m illions)5000-500-1,000NIA Results•Net present value rises (shipments) then falls (discounting)–But varies between product class, CSL, scenario–Shown here: all ballasts,max tech, Existing/Shift scenario–National energy savings: same pattern as operating cost savingsNet Present ValueNational Energy Savings2,0000.0800.0701,5000.0601,000 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 (quads)0.0500.0400.0300.0200.010Discounted Operating Cost SavingsDiscounted Installed Cost Increase0.000Total NPV 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 204464 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 19:DOE acknowledges that there may be certain“external” benefits resulting from the improved efficiency ofballasts that are not capturedby the equipment’s users. Theseinclude both environmental and energysecurity-relatedexternalities that are also not already reflected in energyprices, such as reduced emissions of greenhouse gases andreduced use of fossil fuelsfor electricity generation. DOEinvites comments on the nature and magnitude of suchbenefits.65 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 20:For the NOPR, DOE will develop trial standardlevels (TSLs) based on the candidate standard levels forfluorescent lamp ballasts. DOE is considering several criteriain developing the TSLs, including, but not limited to, minimumLCC, maximum NPV, and maximum technologically-feasibleefficiency. These TSLs may include combinations of CSLs andthe interaction between product classessuch as ballasts thatoperate 4-foot medium bipin and 8-foot single pin slimlinefluorescent lamps. From the list of TSLs developed, DOE willselect one as its proposed standard for the NOPR. DOE invitescomment on the criteria it should use as the basis for selectionof TSLs.66 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov234Background and Legal Authority5456Public Meeting Agenda67 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov123Market & Tech;Screening; EngineeringEnergy Use; Markup AnalysisOverviewLife-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisNational Impact AnalysisPreliminary MIA; NOPR Analyses68 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleMarket &TechnologyScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy Use &End Use LoadCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups forEquipmentPriceDeterminationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriod AnalysisPreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysisPreliminary AnalysisRulemaking StageManufacturer Impact AnalysisOverview•Purpose–To identify the impacts of energy conservation standards onmanufacturers•Phase 1–DOE creates an industry profile tocharacterize the industry andidentify important issues that require consideration•Phase 2–DOE prepares an industry cash-flow model and an interviewquestionnaire to guide subsequent discussions•Phase 3–DOE interviews manufacturers, and assesses the impacts ofstandards both quantitatively (using the Government RegulatoryImpact Model) and qualitatively (impacts on competition,manufacturing capacity, employment,and regulatory burden)69 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govPreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis–Key Issues•Impacts on Profitability–Higher standards may decrease profit margins–especially for theOEM distribution channel–Residential consumers may switch to other types of lightingproducts due to higher prices, reducing sales•Product Conversion Costs/Diminishing Returns to Consumers–Conversion costs may increase the price of the ballast to theconsumer for, in most cases, a small increase in efficiency•Product Innovation–Resources available for the development of new products maydecrease because existing products may needto be redesigned•Regulatory Burden–Manufacturers prefer DOE to specify onlya final date for ballastproduction and not one forballast sales as well–Hazardous material regulations–International standards70 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 21:DOE requests comment on its identification of keyissues and requests data and information from interestedparties that can assist in evaluating the potential impact onmanufacturers.Issue 10:DOE recognizes and seeks to mitigate theoverlapping effects on manufacturersof new or amended DOEstandards and other regulatory actions affecting the sameequipment. DOE will analyzeand consider the impact onmanufacturers of multiple, product-specific regulatory actionsin the NOPR. DOE invites comment on regulations applicableto ballast manufacturers that contribute to their cumulativeregulatory burden.71 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govNOPR72 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govAnalyses for Notice of ProposedRulemaking (NOPR)FrameworkDocumentEnvironmentalAssessmentLife-CycleCostSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisRevisePreliminaryAnalysisNOPRPreliminaryAnalysisFinalRuleNOPR Analyses•LCC Subgroup Analysis–effects on various national consumer subgroups•Manufacturer Impact Analysis (continued)•Utility Impact Analysis–effects on generation capacity of utilities•Employment Impact Analysis–indirect effects on national employment•Environmental Assessment–effects on airborne pollutant emissions•Regulatory Impact Analysis–potential for non-regulatory approaches73 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue 22:DOE plans on monetizingthe emission reductionsdue to standards consistent withmethods used in recent DOEstandards rulemakings. For example, in the case of CO2, themost recent interagency estimates of the potential globalbenefits resulting from reduced CO2emissions in 2010 were$4.7, $21.4, $35.1, and $64.9 per metric ton in 2007 dollars.DOE invites comments on theapproaches for monetizing theemission savings due to energy conservation standards.74 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govDOE Seeks Comments on its ProposalDOE Seeks Comments on itsProposalIn all correspondence, include all of the following:–Energy Conservation Standards for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts–Docket NumberEERE-2007–BT–STD–0016–Regulatory Identification Number(RIN) 1904–AB50Email:ballasts.rulemaking@ee.doe.govPostal Mail:Courier:Ms. Brenda EdwardsMs. Brenda EdwardsU.S.Department of EnergyU.S. Department of EnergyBuilding Technologies ProgramBuilding Technologies ProgramMailstop EE-2J950 L’Enfant Plaza, S.W., 6thFloor1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.Washington, DC 20024Washington, DC 20585-0121Telephone: (202) 586-2945Comment period closes:May 10, 201075 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov