Agenda – November 2019 Refunding 

Treasury Dealer Meetings – October 24 – October 25, 2019 

Dealer ___________________ 

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, October 21, 2019 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury 

officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates #

 Central 

Estimate 

Range that would not 

surprise you 

# Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of 

Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account 

(SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions.

Low/High 

 October-December 2019 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing / 

 Ending Cash Balance / 

 January-March 2020 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing / 

 Ending Cash Balance / 

 FY 2020 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing / 

 FY 2021 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing / 

 FY 2022 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing / 

 

II. Budget Deficit and Growth Estimates 

 FY 2020 / 

 FY 2021 / 

 FY 2022 / 

 Real GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2019 / 

 Real GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2020 / 

 Nominal GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2019 / 

 Nominal GDP(4Q/4Q % Chg) CY2020 / 

 

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates 

 3-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

 10-year note (Nov) / 

 10-year note reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - / 

 30-year bond (Nov) / 

 30-year bond reopening (Dec/Jan) / / 

 2-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

 5-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

 7-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

 10-year TIPS reopening (Nov) / 

 5-year TIPS reopening (Dec) / 

 10-year TIPS (Jan) / 

 2-year FRN reopening (Nov/Dec) / 

 2-year FRN (Jan) / 

 

IV. Bill Issuance Estimates 

 52-week bill size (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

 Total change in bills outstanding Nov ‘19 – Jan ‘20 / 

 Total change in bills outstanding FY 2020 / 

 CMB issuance Nov ‘19 – Jan ‘20 (size/date) / / / / 
Discussion Topics 

1. Please discuss your latest economic and fiscal forecasts for FY2020 and FY2021. Do you believe the current 

financing schedule is well-suited to meet Treasury’s financing needs though the end of FY2020? FY2021? 

2. Over the past several years, the TBAC and market participants have proposed that Treasury consider issuing a 20-

year nominal coupon bond. Please comment on sources of demand for this product. Please estimate the annual 

market demand (in $bn) for such a product and what volumes of issuance would be necessary to achieve 

benchmark liquidity. How would demand and liquidity likely evolve over time? 

At what spread would a 20-year bond be expected to price relative to 10- and 30-year Treasuries? How would 

this pricing relationship likely evolve across the interest rate cycle? 

Please comment on the preferred product structure and issuance schedule for a 20-year bond. For example, would 

maturity and coupon dates aligning with 10s and 30s be preferable? Should auction and settlement dates be 

aligned with 10s and 30s, or scheduled later in the month? 

3. Since early-2018, primary dealers’ net position in Treasuries has reached historically elevated levels, particularly 

in shorter-duration nominal coupon securities according to data released by the Federal Reserve. Please comment 

on the drivers and composition of primary dealer positions. In particular, please comment on the interaction 

between primary dealer positions, auction participation, and recent repo market variability. 
Part 2: 

Given your expectations for the borrowing needs over the next three fiscal years (as presented in question 1), Treasury would 

like your expectations for: 

1. Auction sizes ($bn) in all tenors by the end of FY20, FY21, and FY22, and 

2. Auction size ranges ($bn) that would not surprise you across all tenors by the end of FY20, FY21, and FY22. 

Auction size estimates should take into account the amount needed to address SOMA redemptions of Treasury securities. 

Tenor 

Size 

Expectation 

for 

FY20 

Year-end 

Range that 

would not 

surprise you: 

Low/High 

Size 

Expectation 

for 

FY21 

Year-end 

Range that 

would not 

surprise you: 

Low/High

Size 

Expectation 

for 

FY22 

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you: 

Low/High

Nominals 

2-year / / / 

3-year / / / 

5-year / / / 

7-year / / / 

10-year (new) / / / 

10-year (reop) / / / 

30-year (new) / / / 

30-year (reop) / / / 

TIPS 

5-year TIPS (new) / / / 

5-year-TIPS (reop) / / / 

10-year TIPS (new) / / / 

10-year TIPS (reop) / / / 

30-year TIPS (new) / / / 

30-year TIPS (reop) / / / 

FRNs 

2-year FRN / / / 

2-year FRN (reop) / / / 

Bills 

1-mo bill / / / 

2-mo bill / / / 

3-mo bill / / / 

6-mo bill / / / 

1-year bill / / /