Quarterly Refunding 

U.S. Department 

Office of Deb
Office of Debt Management

Financing 

Near Term Outlook 

FY 2009 Q3 and Q4 Outlook: Estimated marketable borrowing

• $361 billion April-June • $515 billion July-September• Continued weakness in receipts, increased outlays relate

economic recovery programs, and declines in net state agovernment series securities have led to greater marketaborrowing needs
Office of Debt Management

 Net marketable 

borrowing for the first half of FY 2009 exceeds FY 2008 record levels. 

 Cash outflows exceeding 

$70 billion on May 15 and August 15 result from interest payments and maturing 3-, 5-, and 10-year notes and called 30-year bonds.

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows 

Date

Maturing Coupon 

Securities 

(Excluding SOMA 

holdings)

Coupo

Payme

May 15, 2009 52 21 May 31, 2009 19 4 June 15, 2009 14 1 June 30, 2009 19 4 July 15, 2009 14 6 July 31, 2009 19 3 August 15, 2009 61 26 August 31, 2009 19 4 

($ billions)

Issued Matured

Net SOMA 

Activity * 

Net Cash 

Raised Issued Matur

Bills (includes SFP's) $3,651.7 $3,108.0 $0.0 $543.8 $4,632.9 $4,101

Nominal coupons $806.8 $309.0 $2.4 $497.8 $814.6 $626.

TIPS $29.9 $20.8 ($2.4) $9.1 $61.9 $21.8 Total $4,488.4 $3,437.8 $0.0 $1,050.6 $5,509.5 $4,749

* Note: Negative SOMA activity represents redemptions.  Positive SOMA activity represents additional issuance of securities, made possible by redemptions in maturing securities with the same settlement date; these are offsetting transactions and are net cash neutral.

Treasury Marketable Financing

October 1, 2008 - March 31, 2009 October 1, 2

Q1-Q2 FY 2009 
Office of Debt Management

 Volatility of cash balances 

continues to pose challenges.

 Net marketable borrowing 

through the second quarter of FY 2009 has eclipsed total FY 2008 net marketable borrowing. 

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing

"Net Cash" 

Fiscal Quarter

97.8

144.2

-78.5

52.3

92.5

158.0

-92.2

45.0 41.9

125.7

-138.7

105.2 86.8

191.0

-4

-250-200-150-100

-50

0

50

100150200250300350400450500550600

I-05 II III IV I-06 II III IV I-07 II III IV I-08 II 

$ billions

 Bills 2-under 5 years5-10 years 5-10 year TIPSOver 10 years Over 10 year TIPS

Note: Includes SOMA redemptions and SFP's.

Treasury Daily Operating Cash Balance

0

255075

100125150175

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ju

$ billions

FFF

Note: Data through 

Excludes Supplementary Financing Program. As of April 21, Treasury has almost $200 billion held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

K ey R e ceip t D a tes 1s t o f M o nth – In dividua l w ithh eld ta xe s 

M a r. 15, Jun . 1 5, S e pt. 1 5, D ec . 1 5- Co rpo ra te T axe s Ja n. 1 5, A pr. 15 , Jun . 1 5, S ep t. 15 In divid ua l N on -w ithh eld Ta xe s 

Key Outlay Dates 

1st of each month – Medicare, SSI, V3rd of each month Main Social Securi

2nd/3rd/4th Wed of each month Soc. Se

Feb. 15, May 15, Aug. 15, Nov. 15 InFeb 1 - April 15 – Individual tax refu
Office of Debt Management

Net borrowing from coupons has increased versus b

Net Coupons (w/ TIPs) Issued

FY 2004-2009

-$100

$0

$100$200$300$400$500$600$700

10/15

11/1

11/15

11/30

12/15

12/31

1/15

1/31

2/15

2/28

3/15

3/31

4/15

4/30

5/15

5/31

6/15

6/30

7/15

7/31

8/15

8/31

9/15

9/30

FY '04 FY '05 FY '06 FY '07 FY '08 FY '09

Net Weekly Bills I

FY 2004-2009

-$40-$30-$20-$10

$0

$10$20$30$40

10/3

10/10 

3/2

4/10 4/3 4/17 4/24

5/1

5/8

5/15

5/22

5/29

6/5

6/12

6/19

6/26

7/3

7/10

7/17

7/24

7/31

8/7

8/14

8/21

8/28

9/4

9/11

9/18 9/25

FY '04 FY '05 FY '07 FY '08 
Office of Debt Management

 For a seventh consecutive 

quarter, net nonmarketableissuance was negative, led by continued weakness in net issuance of State and Local Government Series Securities. 

 Savings Bonds have 

experienced net outflows for twenty-one consecutive quarters. 

 Nominal coupon issuance 

continues to trend higher.

Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing from Nonmarketab

 Fiscal Quarter

0.8

4.5 3.9

-6.0

1.1

16.6

24.4

16.3

10.7

-2.2

4.1

-6.8

15.7

21.0

15.7

-8.5

-5.7

-7.8

-20-15-10

-5

05

1015202530

I 04 II III IV I 05 II III IV I 06 II III IV I 07 II III IV I 08 II 

$billions

StaGoSaFo

Percentage Breakdown of Quarterly Issuan

Fiscal Year 

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 20

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10-15 yrs Bonds 

Note: Data are a 4-quarter rolling average through March 31, 2009. Excludes CMB's..
Office of Debt Management

 The rate of growth in 

par outstanding TIPS has moderated.

 Nominal coupon 

issuance has increased in response to fiscal needs.

TIPS Issuance and Outstanding

Fiscal Year

$0

$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 

$ Billions

10-Y 5-Y 20-Y 30-Y Inflation-Adjusted Outstanding (rhs) 

Note: Data through April 2009.

Coupons Oustanding

Year-over-Year Growth Rates

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Oct-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 

Period ending ...

Rate

Noms TIPs
Office of Debt Management

Debt Portfolio Considerations

Assumptions used in the next 3 charts: Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally acros

securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auc

which are based on announced coupon amounts as of April 17, assume the outstanding level of weekly bills on March 31, 200

 Projections exclude cash management bills.Using the above assumptions, over the next 10 years:

 Average maturity of total outstanding and average maturity of 

settle to about 59 and 67 months, respectively. 

 The percent of debt with 3 years or less to maturity stabilizes a
Office of Debt Management

 Average maturity of 

marketable debt outstanding is projected to rise from recent lows.

 If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, current issuance patterns would lead to a steadily increasing share of medium to longer-term debt.

DEBT MATURITY MEASURES 

2030405060708090

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 

months

Average Maturity of Issuance 1/

Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding 2/

*Net financing projections for FY 2009-2019 are based on the preliminary OMB 2010 Budget estimates released February 2009. Future proportionally across auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizes are based on announced coupon outstanding level of bills on March 31, 2009. All projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing amounts. 

1 Quarterly data are actuals through March 31, 2009. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-quarter average. 2 Quarterly data are actuals through March 31, 2009. Fiscal year projections are yearly data. 

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding by 

Fiscal Year 

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 

BILLS 2-3 YR NOTES 4-7 YR NOTES 8-10 YR NOTES 

*Net financing projections for FY 2009-2019 are based on the preliminary OMB 2010 Budget estimates released February spread proportionally across auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizes are based on 

April 17, 2009 and assume the outstanding level of bills on March 31, 2009. All projections exclude CMB issuance and m
Office of Debt Management

 If future financing 

needs are spread proportionally, shortterm debt as a percent of the overall portfolio is projected to fall after leveling off in the first two quarters of FY 2009.

 Maturing 2-year, 3-

year and 5-year notes lead to increased near- and mediumterm financing needs. 

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 

20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 20

Maturing in 12 Months

Maturing in 24 Months

Maturing in 36 Months

*Net financing projections for FY 2009-2019 are based on the preliminary OMB 2010 Budget estimates released February 20spread proportionally across auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizes are based on aApril 17, 2009 and assume the outstanding level of bills on March 31, 2009. All projections exclude CMB issuance and matu

Coupons Maturing*

May 15, 2009-February 15, 2039

0

1020304050607080

15-MAY-2009

31-MAY-2009

15-JUN-2009

30-JUN-2009

15-JUL-2009

31-JUL-2009

15-AUG-2009

31-AUG-2009

15-SEP-2009

30-SEP-2009

15-OCT-2009

31-OCT-2009

15-NOV-2009

30-NOV-2009

15-DEC-2009

31-DEC-2009

15-JAN-2010

31-JAN-2010

15-FEB-2010

28-FEB-2010

15-MAR-2010

31-MAR-2010

15-APR-2010

30-APR-2010

15-MAY-2010

31-MAY-2010

15-JUN-2010

30-JUN-2010

15-JUL-2010

31-JUL-2010

15-AUG-2010

31-AUG-2010

15-SEP-2010

30-SEP-2010

15-OCT-2010

31-OCT-2010

15-NOV-2010

30-NOV-2010

15-DEC-2010

31-DEC-2010

15-JAN-2011

31-JAN-2011

15-FEB-2011

28-FEB-2011

31-MAR-2011

15-APR-2011

30-APR-2011

31-MAY-2011

30-JUN-2011

31-JUL-2011

15-AUG-2011

31-AUG-2011

30-SEP-2011

31-OCT-2011

15-NOV-2011

30-NOV-2011

15-DEC-2011

31-DEC-2011

15-JAN-2012

31-JAN-2012

15-FEB-2012

29-FEB-2012

15-MAR-2012

31-MAR-2012

15-APR-2012

30-APR-2012

31-MAY-2012

30-JUN-2012

15-JUL-2012

31-JUL-2012

15-AUG-2012

31-AUG-2012

30-SEP-2012

31-OCT-2012

15-NOV-2012

30-NOV-2012

31-DEC-2012

31-JAN-2013

15-FEB-2013

28-FEB-2013

31-MAR-2013

15-APR-2013

30-APR-2013

15-MAY-2013

31-MAY-2013

30-JUN-2013

15-JUL-2013

31-JUL-2013

15-AUG-2013

31-AUG-2013

30-SEP-2013

31-OCT-2013

15-NOV-2013

30-NOV-2013

31-DEC-2013

15-JAN-2014

31-JAN-2014

15-FEB-2014

28-FEB-2014

31-MAR-2014

15-MAY-2014

15-JUL-2014

15-AUG-2014

15-NOV-2014

15-JAN-2015

15-FEB-2015

15-MAY-2015

15-JUL-2015

15-AUG-2015

15-NOV-2015

15-JAN-2016

15-FEB-2016

29-FEB-2016

31-MAR-2016

15-MAY-2016

15-JUL-2016

15-AUG-2016

15-NOV-2016

15-JAN-2017

15-FEB-2017

15-MAY-2017

15-JUL-2017

15-AUG-2017

15-NOV-2017

15-JAN-2018

15-FEB-2018

15-MAY-2018

15-JUL-2018

15-AUG-2018

15-NOV-2018

15-JAN-2019

$ Billions

10 YR IIS NOTE 10 YR NOTE 2 YR NOTE 20 YR IIS BOND3 YR NOTE 30 YR BOND 30 YR IIS BOND 5 YR IIS NOTE5 YR NOTE 7 YR NOTE

*Based on coupon sec

In the next 5 years, 61 days will have maturities greater than $20 billion and 30 days greater than $30 billion.
Office of Debt Management

Uncertainty

 Economic and credit market conditions continue to add uncerta

borrowing requirements.

 Volatility in revenues, outlays and reduced non-marketable deb

could also lead to increased near-term marketable financing nee
Office of Debt Management

 State and Local Government 

Series (SLGS) issuance remains at subdued levels.

 SLGS net pay downs 

continue unabated, marking the seventh consecutive quarterly net outflow.

State and Local Governments (SLGS) 

Calendar year

0

102030405060

$ B illionsGross Issues Redemptions

-20-10

0

10203040

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20

$ B illions

Net SLGs
Office of Debt Management

 The decline in 

corporate tax receipts is similar to that of 2002. Such declines generally precede lower growth in individual tax receipts.

 Treasury repo market 

fails are returning to more typical levels.

Rolling 12-Month Growth Rates

-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%

10%20%30%40%

Mar-82 Mar-85 Mar-88 Mar-91 Mar-94 Mar-97 Mar-00 

Corp Taxes WH Taxes nWH Taxes

Primary Dealer Treasury Security Settlement Fails

Interest Rate Environment

0

50

100150200250300350400

1/4/95

5/4/95

9/4/95

1/4/96

5/4/96

9/4/96

1/4/97

5/4/97

9/4/97

1/4/98

5/4/98

9/4/98

1/4/99

5/4/99

9/4/99

1/4/00

5/4/00

9/4/00

1/4/01

5/4/01

9/4/01

1/4/02

5/4/02

9/4/02

1/4/03

5/4/03

9/4/03

1/4/04

5/4/04

9/4/04

1/4/05

5/4/05

9/4/05

1/4/06

$ Billions

Weekly Effective Fed Funds 

Average Daily Fails to Receive

Source: FRBNY FR2004 Settlement Fails Data & FR
Office of Debt Management

 Primary dealers 

currently estimate a FY 2009 deficit of over $1.7 trillion, in line with recent government projections.

 Fiscal deficit 

projections remain volatile.

FY 09 Deficit Estimates 

Primary

Dealers* CBO 

Current: 1745 1667 Range based on average absolute forecast error** 1687-1803 1567-176Estimates as of: April 09 March 09 FY 2009 Marketable Borrowing Range*** 1655-2700FY 2010 Marketable Borrowing Range*** 1040-1900

* Primary Dealers reflect average estimate. Based on Primary Dealer feedback on April 23, 2009.** Ranges based on errors from 2004-2008.*** Based on Primary Dealer feedback on April 23, 2009.

Comparing Deficit Estimates for FY 2009 since February 20

0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

February 08 April 08 June 08 August 08 October 08 December 08 

Estimate Month

($ billions)

OMB CBO Primary Dealers

Note: OMB is not expected to release the final FY 2010 Budget until May 2009.