Quarterly Refund

U.S. Departm

Office o

Office of Debt Management
Summary of Financing for FY 2009 and FY 2010 Outlook 

• FY 2009 deficit was $1,417 billion versus $455 billion for FY 2008• Net marketable borrowing for FY 2009 was $1,786 billion compar

billion (includes $154 billion of SOMA redemptions) in FY 2008 billion (includes $154 billion of SOMA redemptions) in FY 2008

• FY 2009 net non-marketable borrowing was -$51 billion versus -$4

FY 2008

FY 2010 Q1 and Q2 Outlook: Estimated net marketable borrowing

• $276 billion October-December• $478 billion January-March• These estimates do not include any incremental borrowing nee

These estimates do not include any incremental borrowing nee

would result from a potential increase in issuance under the SF

• Expenditures related to stimulus measures and weakness in re

continue to drive near term marketable borrowing needs

Office of Debt Management

continue to drive near-term marketable borrowing needs
($ billions)

Treasury Marketable Financing

FY 2009 F

October 1, 2008 - September 30, 2009 October 1, 200

• Net cash raised in FY 

2009 was nearly $1 trillion more than FY 2008.

Issued Matured

Net SOMA 

Activity * 

Net Cash 

Raised Issued Matured

Bills (includes SFPs) $6,920.5 $6,417.8 $0.0 $502.7 $4,632.9 $4,101.2 

Nominal coupons $1,886.6 $640.7 $0.0 $1,245.9 $814.6 $626.2 

TIPS $58.5 $20.8 $0.0 $37.7 $61.9 $21.8 Total $8,865.6 $7,079.3 $0.0 $1,786.3 $5,509.5 $4,749.2 

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows 

Maturing Coupon

* Note: Negative SOMA activity represents redemptions.  Positive SOMA activity represents additional issuance of securities, made possible by redemptions in maturing securities with the same settlement date; these are offsetting transactions and are net cash neutral.

• Large cash outflows

Date

Maturing Coupon

Securities 

(Excluding SOMA 

holdings)

Coupo

Paymen

November 15, 2009 38 21 

21 4 

Large cash outflows

on November 15 include Treasury’s last callable 30-year bond. 

November 30, 2009 21 4 December 15, 2009 15 1 December 31, 2009 23 4 January 15, 2010 26 6 

25 4 

Office of Debt Management

January 31, 2010 25 4 February 15, 2010 48 27 February 28, 2010 26 5 
150175

$ billions

Treasury Daily Operating Cash Balance

FY 200

Note: Data through October 23, 2009.

Excludes Supplementary Financing Program. As of October 23 Treasury has almost $30 billion held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

• Fiscal and financial market 

stabilization measures, as well as uncertainty related to receipts, has led to increased volatility in cash balances.

75

100125

0

2550

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ju

Ke Receipt Dates Key Outlay Dates

$ billions

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing

"Net Cash" 

Fiscal Quarter 

Key Receipt Dates

1st of Month – Individual withheld taxes 

Mar. 15, Jun. 15, Sept. 15, Dec. 15- Corporate Taxes Jan. 15, Apr. 15, Jun. 15, Sept. 15 Individual Non-withheld Taxes 

Key Outlay Dates

1st of each month – Medicare, SSI, 3rd of each month Main Social Secu

2nd/3rd/4th Wed of each month Soc. 

Feb. 15, May 15, Aug. 15, Nov. 15 Feb 1 - April 15 – Individual tax re

• Net marketable borrowing for 

the July-September quarter was

527.1

300350400450500550600

Bills 2-under 5 years5-10 years 5-10 year TIPSOver 10 years Over 10 year TIPS

Note: Includes SOMA redemptions and SFP's.Note: Includes SOMA redemptions and SFP's.

the July September quarter was$393 billion versus $527 billion in the same period in 2008. 97.8 144.2

52.3

92.5

158.0

45.0 41.9

125.7

105.2 86.8

191.0

-50

0

50

100150200250

Office of Debt Management

-78.5 -92.2

-138.7

-44.6

-250-200-150-100

I-05 II III IV I-06 II III IV I-07 II III IV I-08 II III IV 
• State and Local 

24.4

21.0

2530

$billions 

Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing from Nonmarketabl

Fiscal Quarter

State and S i

Government Series Securities net pay down of $44 billion in FY 2009 was a record, eclipsing the previous 

d f $36 billi i 0 8

4.5 3.9

1.1

16.6 16.3

10.7

4.1

15.7 15.7

5

101520

SeriesSavings BForeign S

record of $36 billion in 

FY 2008. 

• Savings Bonds have 

experienced net 

tfl f t t

0.8

-6.0

-2.2

-6.8

-8.5

-5.7

-7.8

-15.1 

-15-10

-5

0

outflows for twentythree consecutive 

quarters. 

Percentage Breakdown of Quarterly Issuance

Fiscal Year

-17.

-25-20

I 04 II III IV I 05 II III IV I 06 II III IV I 07 II III IV I 08 II III IV 

• Treasury continues its

50%60%70%80%

Treasury continues its

gradual transition from bill issuance to coupon issuance. 

0%

10%20%30%40%

Office of Debt Management

0% 

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10-15 yrs Bonds 

Note: Data are a 4-quarter rolling average through September 30, 2009. Excludes CMB's.
$70$80

$ Billions

TIPS Issuance and Outstanding

Fiscal Year

30-Y 20-Y 5-Y 10-Y Inflation-Adjusted Outstanding (rhs) Par O

Note: Data through October 2009.

• TIPS issuance will 

gradually increase in 2010. 

$40$50$60

g

2010.

$10$20$30

$0 

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 

Year-over-Year Growth Rates

Noms TIPs

• Nominal coupon 

i hi d

Noms TIPs

issuance has increased

in response to fiscal needs and longer term deficit forecasts.

Rate

Office of Debt Management

Jun-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 

Period ending ...
Debt Portfolio Considerations

Assumptions used in the next 3 charts:• Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally acros

securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes, whicon announced coupon amounts as of October 23, 2009, and assoutstanding level of weekly bills on September 30, 2009.

• Projections exclude cash management bills.• Assumes no change to future issuance patterns.Using the above assumptions, over the next 10 years:• Average maturity of total outstanding and average maturity of 

settle to about 66 and 77 months respectively settle to about 66 and 77 months, respectively. 

• The percent of debt with 3 years or less to maturity declines to 

Office of Debt Management
90 

months 

DEBT MATURITY MEASURES 

Average Maturity of Issuance 1/

• Average maturity of 

marketable issuance and debt outstanding are projected to rise over the coming years assuming not policy changes 

607080

and current issuance patterns.

304050

Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding 2/

1/ Quarterly data are actuals through September 30, 2009. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-quarter averag2/ ld lh h b i l j i ld

20 

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20

*Net financing projections for FY 2010-2019 are based on OMB 2010 MSR Budget estimates released August 2009. Future residual financauctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of October 23, bills on September 30, 2009. All projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing amounts. 

2/ Quarterly data are actuals through September 30, 2009. Fiscal year projections are yearly data. 

50% 

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding by S

Fiscal Year

• If future financing needs are 

25%30%35%40%45%

If future financing needs are

spread proportionally, current pattern issuance would lead to steadily increasing coupon issuance greater than 5 years in tenor as a share of the 

0%5%

10%15%20%

Office of Debt Management

portfolio.

0% 

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 

BILLS 2-3 YR NOTES 4-7 YR NOTES 8-10 YR NOTES BO

*Netfinancing projections for FY 2010‐2019 are based on OMB 2010 MSR Budget estimates released August 2009. Future resid

proportionally across auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizes are based on announce

2009 and assume the outstanding level of bills on September 30, 2009. All projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing am
65%70%75%

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 M

Maturing in 36 Months

• If future financing 

needs are spread proportionally, the amount of debt rolling over within the next 

40%45%50%55%60%

Maturing in 24 Months

three years is projected to decline from current levels.

20%25%30%35%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 

Maturing in 12 Months

*Netfinancing p j ro ections for FY 2010‐2019 are based on OMB 2010 MSR Budget estimates released August 2009. Future residproportionally across auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Initial sizes are based on announced 

2009 and assume the outstanding level of bills on September 30, 2009. All projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing amo

8090

$ Billions

CouponsMaturing*

November 15, 2009‐May 15, 2039

2 YR NOTE 3 YR NOTE 5 YR NOTE 10 YR NOTE 7 YR NOTE 5 YR IIS NOTE 10 YR IIS NOTE 20 YR IIS BOND 

*Based on co

• Maturing 2-year, 3-

year and 5-year notes lead to increased near and medium

506070

In the next 5 years, 73 days will have maturities greater than $20 billion and 46 days greater than $30 billion.

near- and mediumterm financing needs. 

10203040

Office of Debt Management

0

15‐NOV‐2009

31‐DEC‐2009

15‐FEB‐2010

31‐MAR‐2010

15‐MAY‐2010

30‐JUN‐2010

15‐AUG‐2010

30‐SEP‐2010

15‐NOV‐2010

31‐DEC‐2010

15‐FEB‐2011

15‐APR‐2011

30‐JUN‐2011

31‐AUG‐2011

15‐NOV‐2011

31‐DEC‐2011

15‐FEB‐2012

31‐MAR‐2012

15‐MAY‐2012

30‐JUN‐2012

15

‐AUG‐2012

30‐SEP‐2012

15‐NOV‐2012

31‐JAN‐2013

31‐MAR‐2013

15‐MAY‐2013

15‐JUL‐2013

31‐AUG‐2013

15‐NOV‐2013

15‐JAN‐2014

28‐FEB‐2014

30‐APR‐2014

30‐JUN‐2014

15‐AUG‐2014

15‐NOV‐2014

15‐MAY‐2015

15‐NOV‐2015

29‐FEB‐2016

15‐MAY‐2016

15‐JUL‐2016

31‐AUG

‐2016

15‐JAN‐2017

15‐JUL‐2017

15‐JAN‐2018

15‐JUL‐2018

15‐JAN‐2019

15‐JUL‐2019
Additional Factors to Consider

• Increasing volatility in receipts, outlays related to fiscal stimulu

financial market stabilization programs could lead to increased marketable financing needs.

• Corporate tax receipt declines may signal near term declines in 

recei

p g t cate

gories.

• Treasury must maintain its flexibility to address potential borrow

scenarios given the wide range of borrowing estimates by primascenarios given the wide range of borrowing estimates by prima

for FY 2010.

Office of Debt Management
30%

40%

Rolling 12-Month Growth Rates

Corp TaxesWH TaxesnWH Taxes

• Withheld taxes, 

comprising nearly 79% of revenues, continue to decline.

0%

10%20%

a es

-40%-30%-20%-10%-50%

Mar-82

Mar-83

Mar-84

Mar-85

Mar-86

Mar-87

Mar-88

Mar-89

Mar-90

Mar-91

Mar-92

Mar-93

Mar-94

Mar-95

Mar-96

Mar-97

Mar-98

Mar-99

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar03

Central Dealer Estimates 

For Coupon and 52-Wk Bill Auctions Over the Next 3 Mont

Pi d l 30

35404550

nsAvg of High Est

• Primary dealers 

estimate that marginal and gradual increases in coupon sizes can address additional 

borrowing needs 5

1015202530

$ Billion

Avg of Central EstAvg of Low Est

Office of Debt Management

borrowing needs. 5

52-wk Nov

52-wk Dec

52-wk Jan

2-Year Nov

2-Year Dec

2-Year Jan

3-Year Nov

3-Year Dec

3-Year Jan

5-Year Nov

5-Year Dec

5-Year Jan

7-Year Nov

7-Year Dec

7-Year Jan

10-Year Nov

10-Year (r) Dec

10-Year (r) Jan
Primary DealerForecasts

• FY 2010 budget deficit 

estimates by primary dealers have narrowed since last quarter, but 1450

165018502050

Primary DealerForecasts

for FY10 Budget Deficit (central estimates)

MaxAverage

dealers remain uncertain regarding potential legislative initiatives.

850

10501250

1450

$ Billions

Min

450650

Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 

Primary Dealer Forecasts 

f FY11B d tD fi it( t l ti t )

• Primary dealer estimates 1450

165018502050

for FY11 BudgetDeficit (central estimates)

y

for FY 2010 remain widely dispersed.

850

10501250

$ BillionsMax Average

Min

Office of Debt Management

450650

Aug-09 Nov-
FY 2010 Deficit Estimates 

Primary 

Dealers* 

• Primary dealers 

currently estimate a FY 2010 deficit of nearly $1.4 trillion, in line with recent 

Current: 1,393 1Range based on average absolute forecast error** 1,203-1,583 1,08Estimates as of: Oct 09 AFY 2010 Marketable Borrowing Range*** 1 200-1 750 government projections. FY 2010 Marketable Borrowing Range 1,200-1,750 FY 2011 Marketable Borrowing Range*** 725-1,400

* Primary Dealers reflect average estimate. Based on Primary Dealer feedback on October 29, 2009.** Ranges based on errors from 2005-2009.*** Based on Primary Dealer feedback on October 29 2009

1 8002,000

($ billions)

Comparing Deficit Estimates for FY 2010 since February 20

Based on Primary Dealer feedback on October 29, 2009.

• OMB and CBO 

estimates will be updated in early 2010. 1 000

1,2001,4001,6001,800

OMB CBO Primary Dealers

p y

200400600800

1,000

Office of Debt Management

0

200

February 09 April 09 June 09 August 09 

Estimate Month