Quarterly Refunding 

U.S. Department 

Office of Deb

Ja
Office of Debt Management

Financing 

Near Term Outlook 

 FY 2008 Q2 and Q3 Outlook:

• We estimate net marketable borrowing of $156 billion 

quarter and a net pay down of $122 billion next quart

• Uncertainty regarding the timing of refunds and prop

stimulus may lead to increased financing needs in the 
Office of Debt Management

 Deficit funding was 

higher in FY Q1 with an increase in bills being the major financing vehicles.

 With the 

discontinuation of the 3-year note, quarterly outflows in February, May, August and November remain large as securities maturing increase.

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows 

Date

Maturing Coupon 

Securities 

(Excluding SOMA 

holdings)

Coupo

Paymen

February 15, 2008 54 26 February 29, 2008 22 4 March 15, 2008 0 1March 31, 2008 20 4 April 15, 2008 0 4April 30, 2008 22 4 May 15, 2008 74 21 May 31, 2008 22 4 

Treasury Financing Requirements 

(Projected) (Actuals) 

Deficit Funding (Def + / Surplus -) 96 106 

Means of Financing

Change in Cash Balance 30 18 Net Non-Marketable Financing -2 -6 Other* -1 6 Net Marketable Financing 68 87 

Net Marketable Financing 68 87

Bills 46Nominal Notes 30TIPS 13Bonds -3

Notes:

Starting Cash Balance 75 75 

Ending Cash Balance 45 57 

* Includes direct loan activity, changes in accrued interest, checks outstanding, minor miscellaneous transactions, discount and inflation accretion on Treasuries.

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

 October - December 2007
Office of Debt Management

 Cash balance volatility 

generally followed the seasonal patterns of prior years, but continues to be volatile given unexpected redemptions, unexpected flows related to corporate and non-withheld taxes, and timing issues related to refunds.

 Total net marketable borrowing 

for Q1 FY 2008 was nearly $87 billion, with the greatest portion of net new cash from bills and medium-term nominal notes.

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing

Fiscal Quarter

82.6

111.3

60.3 81.5

113.4

145.9

31.3

89.0

97.8

144.2

-78.5

52.3

92.5

158.0

-92.1

4

-200-160-120

-80-40

0

4080

120160200

I-03 II III IV I-04 II III IV I-05 II III IV I-06 II III 

$ billions

Bills 2-under 5 years5-10 years 5-10 year TIPSOver 10 years Over 10 year TIPS

Treasury Daily Operating Cash Balance

0

255075

100125

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 

$ billions

FY 2006FY 2007FY 2008

Note: Data t
Office of Debt Management

 Net non-marketable issuance 

has declined over the past two quarters, particularly in the state and local government sector.

 Bill issuance increased in FY 

Q1 2008, while shorter dated coupon issuance declined as a result of the discontinuance of the 3-year note.

Percentage Breakdown of Quarterly Issua

Fiscal Year 

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10-15 yrs Bonds 

Note: Data through December 31, 2007.

Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing from Nonmarketa

 Fiscal Quarter

7.6

-2.4

-8.4

7.6

0.8

4.5 3.9

-6.0

1.1

16.6

24.4

16.3

10.7

-2.2

4.1

-6.8

15.7

-15-10

-5

05

1015202530

I 03 II III IV I 04 II III IV I 05 II III IV I 06 II III IV I 07 

$billions

State and Local Govt. SeriesSavings BondsForeign Series
Office of Debt Management

Debt Portfolio

Assumptions used in the next 4 charts: Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally acros

securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auc

These sizes are based on the most recently announced amounts assume the outstanding level of bills on September 30, 2007.

 OMB 2008 MSR Budget deficit estimates used for FY2008-20

2008 financing need is an update based on market expectations Treasury’s internal forecasts.

Using the above assumptions, over the next 5 years:

 Average maturity of total outstanding and average maturity of 

settle to about 59 and 60 months, respectively. 

 The percent of debt maturing with 3 years or less to maturity st

54 percent.
Office of Debt Management

 Based on current assumptions, 

average maturity of issuance peaks in FY 2008.

 If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, current issuance patterns would lead to a steadily increasing share of medium to longer-term debt.

DEBT MATURITY MEASURES 

2030405060708090

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 

months

Average Maturity of Issuance 1/

Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding 2/

Net financing projections for FY 2008-2012 are based on OMB 2008 MSR estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread proportio

derived from hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes. These sizes are based on the most recently announced amounts and assume the out

1 Quarterly data are actuals through December 31, 2007. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-quarter average. 2 Quarterly data are actuals through December 31, 2007. Fiscal year projections are yearly data. 

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding b

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 200

BILLS 2-3 YR NOTES 4-7 YR NOTES 8-10 YR NOTES 

Net financing projections for FY 2008-2012 are based on OMB 2008 MSR estimates. Future residual financing needs are 

securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes. These sizes are based on the most recently annolevel of bills on September 30, 2007.
Office of Debt Management

 If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, projected short-term debt rollover percentages will continue to decline before stabilizing.

 Based on fiscal forecasts, net 

marketable borrowing will rise in FY 2008, but decline steadily thereafter. 

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 

25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 

Maturing in 12 Months

Maturing in 24 Months

Maturing in 36 Months

Net financing projections for FY 2008-2012 are based on OMB 2008 MSR estimates. Future residual financing needs are spr

securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes. These sizes are based on the most recently announc

level of bills on September 30, 2007.

Treasury Annual Net Marketable Borrowing

Fiscal Year

-109 -100

-213 -97

204 336

379

216

203

134

275

2

-300-250-200-150-100

-50

0

50

100150200250300350400450

FY 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20

$ billions

BuOvOv5-5-2-uBil

Projected 

Net financing projections for FY 2008-2012 are based on OMB 2008 MSR estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread proportiona

from hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes. These sizes are based on the most recently announced amounts and assume the outstanding le
Office of Debt Management

Uncertainty

 OMB MSR estimates published in July 2007 indicated an incre

borrowing need in FY 2008 with an eventual return to surplus i

 Recent proposals for fiscal stimulus would create the need for la

borrowing requirements.

 Redemptions of securities creates uncertainty in cash balances.

 Volatility in projected receipts and reduced non-marketable deb

could also lead to increased financing needs
Office of Debt Management

 State and Local Government 

Series (SLGS) has declined to negative territory in the past two quarters.

 Net SLGS issuance for CY 

2007 was $36 billion versus total CY 2006 issuance of $22 billion.

State and Local Governments (SLGS) 

Calendar year

0

102030405060

$ B illio ns

Gross IssuesRedemptions

-10

-5

05

1015202530

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

1 Q

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2

$ B illions

Net SLGs
Office of Debt Management

 Bills outstanding 

display a clear seasonal pattern, with increasing yearly outstanding amounts.

 Bill issuance 

increased in the first quarter.

Weekly Bills Outstanding

FY 2004-2008

$750$800$850$900$950

$1,000$1,050$1,100

10/3

10/10 10/1710/24

10/31

11/7

11/14

11/21

11/29

12/5

12/

1

1/

1/30

2/6

2/13

2/20

2/27

3/6

3/13

3/20 3/27 4/10 4/3 4/17 4/24

5/1

5/8

5/15

5/22

5/29

6/5

6/12

6/19

6/26

7/3

7/10

7/17

7/24

7/31

8/7

8/14

8/21

8/28

9/4

9/11

9/18 9/25

FY '04FY '05FY '06FY '07FY '08

Weekly Bills Issued

FY 2004-2008

$0

$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90

$100

10/3

10/10 10/1710/24

10/31

11/7

11/14

11/21

11/29

1

2/6

2/13

2/20

2/27

3/6

3/13

3/20 3/27 4/10 4/3 4/17 4/24

5/1

5/8

5/15

5/22

5/29

6/5

6/12

6/19

6/26

7/3

7/10

7/17

7/24

7/31

8/7

8/14

8/21

8/28

9/4

9/11

9/18 9/25

FY '04FY '05FY '06FY '07FY '08
Office of Debt Management

 Primary dealers 

currently estimate a FY2008 deficit of $326 billion.

 Based on OMB deficit 

projections, the implied additional marketable financing need is $191 billion for FY 2008.

Financing Need Given Current Issuance Calendar 

Assumes current coupon issuance pattern and issuance amount-- Weekly bill issuance at levels 

outstanding FY $ amounts equal to September 30, 2007 total outstanding

-450-350-250-150

-50

50

150250350450

2008 2009 2010 2011 

Fiscal Years

$ billions

Net financing 

by FY2008 OMSR deficit f

Net financing plus average absolute 

difference in OMB estimate

Net financing

minus avg. absolute difference in OMB 

Bars indicate estimated change in financing required in given year for different deficit outcomes

Note: FY 2008 net financing is an internal Treasury estimate.Source: Average historical differences between estimates and actual deficit or surplus are from OMB's 2008 Budget Table 20-7.

FY 08 Deficit Estimates 

Primary Dealers* 

Current: 326 Range based on average absolute forecast error 242-410 Estimates as of: January 08 J

Note: Ranges based on errors from 2003-2007.

* Primary Dealers reflect average estimate, including an amount for a stimulus package.