Quarterly Refunding 

U.S. Department 

Office of Deb
Office of Debt Management

Financing 

Near Term Outlook 

Estimated Net Marketable Borrowing

• $73 billion July-September• $74 billion October-December
Office of Debt Management

 April-June net marketable 

borrowing was close to estimates, largely due to a lower cash balance at quarter end.

 Maturing securities and 

coupon payments result in large outflows on Aug.15 and Nov.15.

Treasury Financing Requirements 

(Projected) (Actuals) 

Deficit Funding (Def + / Surplus -) -140 -138 

Means of Financing

Change in Cash Balance -24 -19 

Net Non-Marketable Financing 17 16 Other* 12 5 Net Marketable Financing -145 -139 

Net Marketable Financing -145 -139 

Bills -164Nominal Notes 3TIPS 16Bonds 7

Notes:

Starting Cash Balance 6 6 Ending Cash Balance 30 25 

* Includes direct loan activity, changes in accrued interest, checks outstanding, minor miscellaneous transactions, discount and inflation accretion on Treasuries.Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

 April - June 2007

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows 

Date

Maturing Coupon 

Securities 

(Excluding SOMA 

holdings)

Coupo

Payme

August 15, 2007 63 27 August 31, 2007 19 4 September 15, 2007 0 1 September 30, 2007 20 3 October 15, 2007 0 4 October 31, 2007 19 3 November 15, 2007 66 21 November 30, 2007 19 3 
Office of Debt Management

 April 30, 2007 cash balance 

reached a record $124 billion on higher than expected receipts.

 Total net marketable pay down 

for Q3 FY 2007 was nearly $139 billion, the largest pay down since Q2 FY 2001 (not shown).

 Bills accounted for $164 

billion of the Q3 net reduction.

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing

Fiscal Quarter

52.1

52.5

15.1

84.2

82.6

111.3

60.3 81.5

113.4

145.9

31.3

89.0

97.8

144.2

-78.5

52.3

92.5

-200-160-120

-80-40

0

4080

120160200

I-02 II III IV I-03 II III IV I-04 II III IV I-05 II III IV I-06 

$ billions

Bills 2-under 5 years5-10 years 5-10 year TIPSOver 10 years Over 10 year TIPSBuybacks

Treasury Daily Operating Cash Balance

0

255075

100125

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ju

$ billions

FY 2005FY 2006FY 2007

Note: Data t
Office of Debt Management

 Q3 net SLGS issuance was 

once again robust. 

 Despite seasonality in cash 

balances bill issuance remains stable.

Percentage Breakdown of Quarterly Issua

Fiscal Year 

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 200

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 10-15 yrs Bonds 

Note: Data through June 30, 2007.

Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing from Nonmarket

 Fiscal Quarter

0.8

-5.5

-0.1 -0.7

7.6

-2.4

-8.4

7.6

0.8

4.5 3.9

-6.0

1.1

16.6

24.4

16.3

10.7

-2.2

-15-10

-5

05

1015202530

I 02 II III IV I 03 II III IV I 04 II III IV I 05 II III IV I 06 II 

$billions

State and Local Govt. SeriesSavings BondsForeign Series
Office of Debt Management

Debt Portfolio

Assumptions used in the next 4 charts: Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally across aucti

securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auction siz

sizes are based on prior quarter announced amounts and assume the olevel of bills on September 30, 2006.

 OMB 2008 MSR Budget deficit estimates, except internal Treasury e

current fiscal year

Using the above assumptions, over the next 5 years: Average maturity of total outstanding debt rises to 60 months  Average maturity of issuance settles to approximately 62 months  The percent of debt maturing with 3 years or less to maturity declines 
Office of Debt Management

 Average maturity of issuance 

rises following the discontinuation of 3-year note issuance.

 If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, current issuance patterns would lead to an increased share of longer-term debt.

DEBT MATURITY MEASURES 

2030405060708090

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20

months

Average Maturity of Issuance 1/

Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding 2/

Net financing projections for FY 2007-2012 are based on OMB 2008 MSR estimates except internal FY 2007 deficit estim

spread proportionally across auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes. These sizeamounts and assume the outstanding level of bills on September 30, 2006.

1 Quarterly data are actuals through June 30, 2007. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-quarter average. 2 Quarterly data are actuals through June 30, 2007. Fiscal year projections are yearly data. 

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding b

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 200

BILLS 2-3 YR NOTES 4-7 YR NOTES 8-10 YR NOTES 

Net financing projections for FY 2007-2012 are based on OMB 2008 MSR estimates except internal FY 2007 deficit estim

spread proportionally across auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes. These sizamounts and assume the outstanding level of bills on September 30, 2006.
Office of Debt Management

 If future financing needs are 

spread proportionally, projected short-term debt rollover percentages will continue to decline.

 Based on OMB fiscal 

projections, net marketable borrowing will rise in FY 2008, but decline steadily thereafter. 

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 3

25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 20

Maturing in 12 Months

Maturing in 24 Months

Maturing in 36 Months

Net financing projections for FY 2007-2012 are based on OMB 2008 MSR estimates except internal FY 2007 deficit estim

spread proportionally across auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes. These sizamounts and assume the outstanding level of bills on September 30, 2006.

Treasury Annual Net Marketable Borrowing

Fiscal Year

-109 -100

-213 -97

204 336

379

216

203

90

279

-300-250-200-150-100

-50

0

50

100150200250300350400450

FY 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2

$ billions

BuyOveOve5-10 5-10 2-unBills

Projected a

Net financing projections for FY 2007-2012 are based on OMB 2008 MSR estimates except internal FY 2007 deficit estimateproportionally across auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical initial coupon auction sizes. These sizes are base

assume the outstanding level of bills on September 30, 2006.
Office of Debt Management

Uncertainty

 OMB MSR estimates indicate declining borrowing needs after F

with a return to surplus in FY 2012

 Volatility in projected receipts and continued strength in net non

marketable issuance could lead to greater variation in bill and cissuance
Office of Debt Management

 Strength in receipts have led 

to lower deficit estimates.

 Based on OMB projections 

the implied additional marketable financing need is $214 billion for FY 2008.

Financing Need Given Current Issuance Calendar 

Assumes current coupon issuance pattern and issuance amount-- Weekly bill issuance at leve

outstanding FY $ amounts equal to September 30, 2006 total outstandin

-350-250-150

-50

50

150250350450

2007 2008 2009 2010 

Fiscal Years

$ billions

Net financi

by FY2008 MSR defic

Net financing plus average absolute 

difference in OMB estimate

Net financing

minus avg. absolute difference in OMB 

Bars indicate estimated change in financing required in given year for different deficit outcomes

Note: FY 2007 net financing is an internal Treasury estimate.Source: Average historical differences between estimates and actual deficit or surplus are from OMB's 2008 Budget Table 20-7.

FY 07 Deficit Estimates 

Primary Dealers* 

Current: 161 Range based on average absolute forecast error 119-203 Estimates as of: July 07 M

Note: Ranges based on errors from 2002-2006.

* Primary Dealers reflect average estimate.